["[L]", "AN ENGLISH REPRINT FROM\nTHE NORWEGIAN WEEKLY", "FARMAND\nGRUNNLIAGT 1891", "", "PUBLISHER AND EDITOR\nTRYGVE J. B. HOFF, PH. D.\nOSLO, NORWAY", "\"THE FARING MAN\"", "This article ap-\npeared in \"Farmand\"\nWeekly, Oslo, issue\nno. 51, December 2, 1961.", "THE WATCHDOG - ON A CHAIN?", "mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

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fact for which the Finns are understandably grateful. After all, they are already accustomed to having the Russians nominate - or at any rate demand the right to approve - the Finns with whom they are going to negotiate.

In fact it now seems to be an established principle that the Finns shall allow the Kremlin to nominate their president, while by way of compensation the Kremlin closes its eyes to the fact that the president is not a Communist. The Finnish presidential election early in the new year is no longer an internal political affair; it is becoming of vital national importance that the man elected be acceptable to the Russians. That is why, out of a sense of loyalty, Honka, the opposition candidate, has stood down, thus ensuring Kekkonen's re-election.

Time will reveal the practical consequences of Russia's right to intervene in Finnish affairs being established as an accepted principle. Will the Russians he entitled to approve or reject Kekkonen's successor, too - and if so, whom will they approve?

The principal hazard at the present time is not that the Soviet Union is endavouring to lower the Iron Curtain over Finland. The danger is that the world at large will have no means of knowing whether or not the curtain is being lowered by the Finns themselves.

The matter of Kekkonen's visit to Novosibirsk has still not been brought to a final conclusion. There is little likelihood that **all** that transpired between him and Krushchov has been made public, and in any case the history of Russo-Finnish relations still has more - let us hope **many** more - diversified chapters to run.

## x

What Russia hopes to achieve by bringing pressure to bear on Finland and the rest of Scandinavia may be something of a riddle. It is true that the Scandinavian countries seldom show themselves over-courageous, but experience has at all events provided clear evidence that NATO and the USA will be the political beneficiaries of the fear engendered in Scandinavia by the Soviet threats.

But be that as it may, that self-same policy of threats has won for Russia a temporary victory over Finland. Admittedly, no great triumph has been gained, but Krushchov may need this extra fillip. The majority of the successes to which he was able to point at the Twenty-Second Party Congress, and the biggest of them at that, proved to be planned and not accomplished.

In its relations with Communism the free world often suffers from excessive pessimism. Every change in the status quo,

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steady growth of Western Europe's economic and political power
is acting like a magnet on Russia's European satellites, and
threatens to make the already unsuccessful consolidation of the
Soviet empire completely impossible.

Fundamentally, it may be said that from the military
point of view, too, Krushchov has been reduced to a state of
comparative helplessness. He is having to acknowledge quite
openly that Communism cannot achieve its ends by resorting to
war; the USA will not be brought to its knees by military means.
In consequence Krushchov is reduced to drawing, rather franti-
cally, attention to what the Soviet Union could do in the
military sphere - which is, of course, a great deal indeed, as
the Russians obviously possess sufficient megatons to blast
the world to kingdom come. But the point is, is this of any
help to Krushchov in the political arena?

X

This then, is the background against which the steps
taken against Finland and the pressure being brought to bear on
Scandinavia as a whole, may be viewed. Consolidation of the
Soviet empire presupposes "stabilisation" of the Berlin
situation and that of Germany in general. The pressure exerted
on Germany has been met by resolute resistance on the part of
the western allies, and is thus being diverted to the sides - in
this case it is being applied to the Scandinavian countries,
where the empire has for the time being installed a watchdog.

<u>Orbiter.</u>

637.

May 11, 1962

Mr. Berent Briele
Room 5600
30 Rockefeller Plaza
New York 20, New York

Dear Berent:

I am extremely grateful for everything you are doing about my trip to Brazil. As I told you, Nelson is delighted that I am going, and I am looking forward very much to it.

I would like to confirm the dates once more. I plan to leave on May 29th and arrive on the 30th. I expect to stay until the 17th of June, although there is a slight possibility that I may have to leave a little earlier. My commitments for lectures include one at 9:00 a.m. May 31st at the National War College in Rio and another at the Diplomatic Academy on June 4th at 6:00 p.m. Sometime in between, I am to meet with the President and the Foreign Minister. I am also supposed to give a lecture in Sao Paulo, but the date has not been settled. In addition to Rio and Sao Paulo, I would like to go to Recife and Brasilia, and anyplace else you think would be interesting.

The Brazilian in charge of my program is Ambassador Gibson.

A colleague of mine here at Harvard has suggested several names to me, and I am listing them below in the hopes that you might put me in touch with them:

1. Reymold Carlson, Ford Foundation representative, at the Fundação Getulio Vargas in Rio.

2. Luiz Fernando Bocayuva Cunha, Federal Deputy of the Labor Party.

3. Israel Klabin, a dominant industrialist.

4. Georges Landau, Brazilian Institute of International Relations.

5. Carlos Lacerda, Governor of Guanabara State.

6. Hamilton Trisco Paraiso, Professor of Administrative Law at Catholic University.

7. Anisio S. Teixeira, member of CHEAR.

8. In Recife, Gilberto Freyre, anthropologist.

9. Also in Recife, Celso Furtado, Director of SUDENE, economist.

10. Cid Sampaio, Governor of Pernambuco State.

Henry V. Kieinger

Sincerely yours,

are doing.

Mr. Herbert Krieger

-3-

May 17, 1963

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May 16, 1962

states of Minas Gerais and Bahia. Carvalho Pinto, Governor of São Paulo; Magalhaes Pinto, Governor of Minas Gerais; and Juraci Magalhaes, Governor of Bahia, are key figures in Brazilian political life and good friends of ours. Of course you will also want to see Brasília and meet the President. The Northeast and Pernambuco you have on your list. I doubt whether you will have time to include Rio Grande do Sul.

The details of your program can best be worked out
after your arrival in Rio and consultation with Gibson Barbosa
and Lincoln Gordon. I hope you will be able to spend a day in
New York before you leave and would like to suggest that we meet
in this office the morning of May 29. Your departure will probably
be on the Varig flight that evening. Please let me hear from you.

Dr. Henry A. Kissinger
6 Divinity Avenue
Cambridge, Mass.

cc Mr. Walter L. Crawford

May 11, 1962

Dear Walt:

It was nice to visit with you and Jimmy last week. I have
reported to the individual Board members the developments, which are
indeed encouraging.

I am writing now to tell you about the forthcoming visit
to Brazil of Dr. Henry A. Kissinger, well known economist and student
of international affairs. Dr. Kissinger is leaving for Rio May 29
at the invitation of the Brazilian Foreign Service School (the Rio
Branco Institute) which is organizing a program of lectures for him
including one at the War College. He will probably remain in Rio
until June 5, and from then on until his departure on June 17th he
would like to see as much of the country and people of Brazil as he
can, since this is his first visit there.

Dr. Kissinger is a close personal friend of Nelson and was
a member of the Special Studies Project Planning Committee of the
Rockefeller Brothers Fund. He has recently been made a full Professor
at Harvard University, and among other assignments at that University
he is Associate Professor of Government, Executive Director of the
Summer School International Seminar, and a member of the Faculty of
Public Administration. His writings in the field of government and
international affairs have received wide recognition and acclaim.

Nelson and I would greatly appreciate it if you would
meet Dr. Kissinger on arrival and be of every possible assistance to
him. I will write again later to give you details of his trip and
suggestions of people that he would be interested in meeting. He
will of course make some contacts of his own through the Foreign Office
and Embassy, especially Lincoln Gordon who is a good friend of his.
What is important is that you make yourself available to him so that
he will know where to turn for personal assistance and advice.

With warm regards,

Mr. Walter L. Crawford
American International Association
Av. Franklin Roosevelt 23
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Copy for Dr. Kissinger

May 18, 1962

Dear Walther:

I am writing now to tell you about the forthcoming visit to Brazil of Dr. Henry A. Kissinger, well known political scientist and student of international affairs. Dr. Kissinger is leaving for Rio May 29 at the invitation of the Brazilian Foreign Service School (the Rio Branco Institute) which is organizing a program of lectures for him including one at the War College. He will probably remain in Rio until June 5, and from then on until his departure on June 17 he would like to see as much of the country and people of Brazil as he can, since this will be his first visit there.

Nelson and I would greatly appreciate any courtesy and assistance which you may extend to Dr. Kissinger during his visit. He is very anxious to meet you and I suggest that you keep in touch with Ambassador Gibson Barbosa at the foreign Ministry about his plans and schedule.

With a big abraço and warm regards,

His Excellency
Walther Moreira Salles
Minister of Finance
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

cc Mr. Jorge de Carvalho

July 13, 1962

Mr. Berent Friele
Room 5600
30 Rockefeller Plaza
New York 20, New York

Dear Berent:

Just after I returned from Brazil
in the middle of June, I had to go off to
Europe and then Washington. This, therefore,
is the first opportunity I have had to tell
you how much I appreciated everything you did
to make my trip to Brazil so memorable. I
was very touched by your coming to Minister
Salles' home the night before I left, and even
more so by your coming to the airport with me
the next morning.

Events in Brazil seem to be taking
the course that we both feared. This surprises
no one who knows Brazil except for those
responsible in Washington.

With kind regards and, again, many
thanks.

Henry A. Klaasen

Sincerely yours,

Kind regards.

did so make my trip to Brazil worthwhile.
to thank you again for everything you

Let me also take this opportunity

you would like to make.
to you. I would welcome any comments
I thought that it might be of interest
Brazil. Some of it is dated now, but
cover a copy of a diary I kept in
I am sending you under separate

Dear Berent:

New York 20, New York
30 Rockefeller Plaza
Room 2600
Mr. Berent Briele

August 31, 1965

30 Rockefeller Plaza
New York 20, N.Y.

Room 5600

September 11, 1962

Dear Henry:

Thank you for your letter dated August 31 which was received last week upon my return from Brazil. You were most thoughtful in sending me a copy of your "Notes on Brazil, May 30 to June 18," which I have read carefully and with tremendous interest. I admire your ability to assimilate information and impressions; the descriptions of your interviews with the people you met are fascinating and extremely illuminating. Your observations and analyses of the situation must, I am sure, be of great value to those who have the privilege of reading your notes. My only regret is that you did not have an opportunity to talk to some of the leading members of PSD such as Ranieri Mazzilli, President of the Chamber of Deputies; Amaral Peixoto, President of PSD; and Juscelino Kubitschek, ex-President of the Republic. PSD is numerically the largest and by far the most important party of the Center, which together with UDN and PSP form the hard core against dictatorship either of the right or of the left.

Attached is copy of a memorandum to Nelson in which you may be interested.

With warm regards and hoping to see you soon,

Dr. Henry A. Kissinger
Harvard University
Center for International Affairs
6 Divinity Avenue
Cambridge 38, Mass.

September 10, 1962

MEMORANDUM

TO: Governor Nelson A. Rockefeller

FROM: Berent Friele

SUBJECT: Brazil at the Crossroads

The country is vibrating under a power struggle between the President and Congress. João Goulart was allowed to take office upon Janio Quadros' resignation a year ago only after an amendment of the Constitution by Congress reducing the powers of the President and installing the parliamentary system of government. The reason was a deep-rooted suspicion by Congress and the armed forces of Goulart's leftish leanings, which in the meantime has proven well founded. Goulart considers this imposition humiliating and contrary to his and his Labor party's best interests. He wants the present Congress, which is up for re-election October 7, to approve a bill calling for a plebiscite early next year on the constitutional amendment of September 2, 1961 rather than waiting until 1965 as stipulated in the existing law. Every conceivable pressure is being brought to bear on Congress to pass this bill during the month of September, including the threat of a general strike or a military take-over by officers favorable to Goulart, who recently has reshuffled key army posts to strengthen his position. He seems determined to risk everything on having the powers of the presidency restored at an early date and serving as a full-fledged president until his term of office expires January 31st, 1966.

The Coalition Cabinet appointed a year ago was forced to resign early in July as Prime Minister Tancredo Neves and other members could not hold public office while campaigning for re-election to Congress. This ended the honeymoon between the President and Congress which, after rejecting Foreign Minister SantiagoDTas for the post of Prime Minister and approving Senate President Auro Mours Andrade who refused to accept, reluctantly approved Goulart's third choice Brochado da Rocha, former State Secretary of Justice of Rio Grande do Sul and a close associate of Goulart's brother-in-law Governor Brizzola, known for his anti-American feelings. Brochado da Rocha had great difficulty in forming his cabinet, which included at Goulart's insistence Walther Moreira Salles, who resigned as Finance Minister last week because of being in disagreement with the Prime Minister about fiscal policies, control of inflation, and the passage of a law regulating foreign investments and remittance of profits. Renato Costa Lima continues to serve as Minister of Agriculture and is doing an excellent job in stimulating this year's production of food crops, which should alleviate shortages and bring about lower prices to the consumers.

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September 10, 1962

Goulart and his supporters, who are primarily left wing labor leaders, realize that the October elections may result in an even more hostile Congress, as the opposition parties which comprise the majority are gaining strength by coordinating their efforts in backing mutually acceptable candidates. Goulart in the meantime is asking for more emergency powers to enact basic reforms, and if rejected may seek a pretext to dissolve Congress and rule by decree. The consensus of opinion in Brazil is that he will not dare to go that far as the Armed Forces, although divided, are committed to defend the Constitution and assure an orderly election which includes the entire Chamber of Deputies (Congress) as well as one-third of the Senate and many State Governors. The most disputed Governorship is that of São Paulo, where Janio Quadros is looming as a possible victor much to the dismay of Goulart, who fears Janio as a possible rival in national leadership. The most critical election for Governor is undoubtedly in Pernambuco, where a strong candidate is the former Mayor of Recife who is an outright Communist. The mood and wishes of the Brazilian people will be known if, as expected, they are permitted to go to the polls on October 7. A note of optimism is justified because of a growing awareness of the dangers which lie ahead and the faith of the Brazilians in democratic institutions, the Church, and in their right to live and work in peace.

cc Mrs. Boyer
Miss Dalrymple
Mr. Purcell
Mr. Stroud