Copy for Mr. Kissinger

October 15, 1962

MEMORANDUM

TO: Governor Nelson A. Rockefeller

FROM: Berent Friele

SUBJECT: The Brazilian Elections October 7

The elections were peaceful and orderly. The results indicate a favorable trend in most states. The most important outcome so far has been that Janio Quadros was defeated in his bid for a political come-back. His old rival, Adhemar de Barros, won the election for Governor of São Paulo with a decisive majority on a strong anti-Communist platform. Governor Carvalho Pinto's candidate, José Bonifacio de Andrade, ran a poor third. He had the official support of President Goulart and PTB including the Communists. Unofficially, Goulart was not adverse to Adhemar, who had the backing of PSD (Kubitschek's party) and many of the industrialists in São Paulo.

The removal of Janio from the Brazilian political scene, at least for the next few years, will have a far reaching effect. It will give Goulart greater peace of mind as he has always feared a resurgence of Janio's popularity and demagogic influence. It may possibly cause Goulart to modify Brazil's independent foreign policy which was Janio's innovation. It can be expected that Adhemar de Barros as Governor of São Paulo will have an important voice in national affairs and serve as a break on Goulart's leftish tendencies. Kubitschek will also have a moderating influence on Goulart, who owes him and his party a debt of gratitude for having pushed through Congress last month a bill calling for a plebiscite on January 6 on the question of restoring the presidential system of government.

The much disputed gubernatorial race in Pernambuco is still in doubt. The conservative candidate has a slight lead over his Communist supported opponent. A conservative coalition candidate for Governor won in Rio Grande do Sul. This was a defeat for Brizzola in his home state. On the other hand, he won the election for a seat in Congress from the State of Guanabara with a substantial vote. The poor showing of Governor Lacerda's candidates for Vice Governor and Congress is very disappointing. Lacerda himself was not up for election.

cc Mrs. Boyer
Miss Dalrymple
Mr. Purcell
Mr. Stroud

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# al of Soviet Missiles

## Soviet's Missile Bases in Cuba
Are Shock to Brazilian Leftists

Continued From Page 1, Col. 7

ever quarter." He said that both
Soviet and United States mili-
tary men should withdraw from
Cuban soil.

Mr. Brizola's statement has
had a powerful effect upon the
Brazilian Left. He was elected
to the Chamber of Deputies Oct.
7 with the largest vote received
by any candidate in Brazil. His
influence among younger radi-
cals in the universities is con-
siderable.

The newspaper of the out-
lawed Communist party, Novos
Rumos, which has always
prominently displayed Mr. Bri-
zola's attacks on United States
policies and private investments,
was one of the few newspapers
that did not publish his state-
ment on the Soviet missiles.

U. S. Kept Informed

Brazilian officials said that
the United States was being
kept closely informed on the
talks being held in Havana by
President Goulart's special en-
voy.

Gen. Albino Silva, chief of
the Presidential military staff,
flew to Havana yesterday and
conferred shortly after his ar-
rival with Premier Fidel Castro
at the Brazilian Embassy. The
purpose of the mission is to
explore the possibilities for ne-
gotiated settlement for Cuba's
relations within the hemisphere.

October 18, 1962

Emmet J. Hughes

Henry W. Bagley

BRAZILIAN POLITICAL ROUNDUP

Brazil's voters manifested anew their preference for a middle-of-the-round course, in the countrywide elections Oct. 7. The pre-election fear that the people might have acquired a strong sympathy for the Left proved groundless, and there was no indication of real new strength for the Right. The old-line parties dominated the scene, though some of the brighter individual stars grew dim.

At stake were all the seats in the federal Chamber of Deputies (just over 400), 45 of the 66 seats in the federal Senate and eleven of 22 governorships; furthermore, complete legislatures were elected in all states, as well as hundreds of mayors and thousands of municipal councilmen. Thus the elections provided a good look at Brazilian public opinion.

The single ballot, supplied by the government, was put to use through much of the country, for the first time. A large percentage of voters, faced with hundreds of choices, resolved their doubts by voting for only principal offices. Brazilians again showed themselves to be out in front of many other Latin American countries in the very fact that the elections took place, and with general order and few charges of fraud.

As you know, Janio Quadros took a beating in the São Paulo gubernatorial race from his traditional arch-enemy Adhemar de Barros. Quadros mutters that he was robbed, but doesn't explain how. Where he will go from here nobody knows. Perhaps he will step farther down the ladder to run for mayor of São Paulo city in 1965.

Another who suffered a major setback in São Paulo was respected Governor Carvalho Pinto. When his candidate, José Bonifácio, ran a poor third, Carvalho Pinto no longer looked like a presidential candidate in 1965.

The victor, Adhemar de Barros, is pretty well-known in the U.S. With Quadros seeming fairly far left, and Bonifácio the choice of a large block of the conservatives, Barros came through as a populist-centrist. His previous administrations as mayor and governor have not been characterized by clean government, and he has been prosecuted for malfeasance. He is generally friendly to foreign business, however, and makes the point that most expropriations of foreign companies in Brazil have been disastrous to the treasury.

Barros's election to the governorship of Brazil's most important

- 2 -

state does not, in my opinion, make him an important candidate for the
presidency in 1965. His past is too sordid, and he has already tried
twice and failed. I think his São Paulo victory mainly represents a
protest against Quadros, whom many voters felt had betrayed them by
resigning the presidency, and they preferred the colorful Barros, whom
they knew, to the lack-luster Bonifacio, known only as an appointed Se-
cretary of Agriculture.

One man whose presidential aspirations got new strength was Jusce-
line Kubitschek, who has already announced he wants his old job back.
Kubitschek supported Barros as well as some other winners. Further-
more, some of the outstanding opposition seems to have been cleared
away. Carvalho Pinto is at least at present in the shadow; so is Qua-
dros, who probably couldn't legally run for president in 1965 anyway;
Carlos Lacerda was rebuffed when his candidate for vice-governor of
Guanabara (city of Rio) was whipped; Juracy Magalhães, a perennial pos-
sibility, couldn't get himself elected Senator.

Lacerda, now generally considered the voice of the Right, with
some echoes of McCarthyism, has a chance to re-build his personal fol-
lowing in three more years as governor of Guanabara, where his own
supporters will continue to dominate the legislature. With all that
city's inherent problems (shortages of water, power, light, housing,
transportation, etc.), he is nevertheless running a reasonably good
government and is making much use of Alliance for Progress help, of
which many other states and the federal government have been slow to
take advantage. Right now Lacerda is seeking loans in Europe.

In Rio de Janeiro, Lacerda is faced with a growing leftist-national-
ism that is more pronounced than elsewhere in Brazil. This showed it-
self not only in the election of an extreme nationalist, Eloi Dutra, for
the vice-governorship, but also in the huge vote given to Leonel Briz-
zola as a federal Congressman from Guanabara. Brizzola is the fire-
brand ex-governor of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, who last year led
a near-revolution when it appeared that his brother-in-law, João Gou-
lart, might not be allowed to take over the presidency vacated by Qua-
dros. Brizzola, who is also strongly anti-American, has run very well
in public opinion polls in Guanabara on who would make the best next
president for Brazil, but as the Constitution now stands he cannot run
because of his close family relationship to the present president.

New doubt was cast on whether Brizzola is a true leftist or just
an opportunist when he chose, as his candidate for the governorship
of Rio Grande do Sul, a conservative banker and landowner, who could
hardly be expected to carry out Brizzola's proclaimed land-confisa-
tion program. At any rate, Brizzola's man lost to a generally-respected
centrist, Ildo Meneghetti. An outstanding surprise in Rio Grande do
Sul was the very poor showing of the third candidate, Fernando Ferrari,
a supposedly up-and-coming anti-Goulart laborite who had done fairly
well as a vice-presidential nominee in 1960.

At this writing, it is not clear whether Miguel Arrais, a leftist ally of Brizzola and Quadros, has won the governorship of the important northern state of Pernambuco; the slow counting shows him neck-and-neck with conservative João Cleofas. It is in Pernambuco that the activity of the Castro-oriented Peasant Leagues is centered.

Preliminary figures indicate that the major old-line parties, PSD and UDN, have elected most of the federal Senators and Deputies, with Goulart's PTB running third. The lineup in Congress presumably will be essentially the same as at present, PSD and PTB usually voting together and UDN leading the opposition. While representatives of other parties may swing with the political winds, it appears that Goulart will have a satisfactory majority, especially if the premiership is held by a PSD man or one acceptable to it.

Next important step is the holding of the referendum Jan. 6, when the voters will express a preference for the so-called "parliamentarist" form of government or the strong-executive system. Then it will be up to Congress to determine the exact structure of the preferred system. Goulart would like to shake off the wraps that were put on him when he took office, and he has Labor's support as well as that of Kubitschek, who is looking forward to his own day back in the Alvorada Palace. Congress, however, although it likely will receive orders from the people to return to "presidencialism", may not restore all the old power to Goulart.

After the noisy pre-election weeks, the country seems to have settled back to something like normalcy, which will permit President Kennedy, on Nov. 12-15, to make his once-postponed official visit here. Of course, normalcy these days includes a steady increase in the cost of living, at a rate of about 4% a month. The government soon will probably increase the minimum wage by about 60%.

HMB:jn

October 18, 1962

Emmet J. Hughes

Henry W. Bagley

SUMMARY OF BRAZILIAN POLITICAL ROUNDUP

The Oct. 7 Brazilwide elections - of Senators, Congressmen, governors, state legislators, mayors and municipal councilmen - indicated a strong preference for the middle of the road.

Janio Quadros, with a leftist tinge, was beaten in the São Paulo gubernatorial campaign by veteran politician Adhemar de Barros, a populist-centrist who is generally friendly to foreign capital; the outcome seemed to show the Paulistas' bitterness over Quadros's resignation as president in 1961. Although anti-American leftist Leonel Brizzola was easily elected to Congress from Rio de Janeiro, his hand-picked candidate to succeed him as governor of Rio Grande do Sul was defeated by a centrist. The old line UDN and PSD parties generally maintained their strength throughout the country.

Ex-President Juscelino Kubitschek fortified his position as leading candidate for the presidency in 1965, not only because he backed several successful candidates (including Adhemar de Barros) but also because some of his leading potential opponents suffered direct or indirect setbacks. These included Governor Carvalho Pinto of São Paulo, whose nominee, José Bonifácio, ran third behind Barros and Quadros; Governor Carlos Lacerda of Guanabara, whose candidate for the vice-governorship was whipped; and Juracy Magalhães, ex-Governor of Bahia, who failed to win a Senatorship.

Presumably Kubitschek's PSD and President Goulart's PTB will continue to cooperate in Congress, giving Goulart the necessary majority, with the UDN leading the opposition. A referendum Jan. 6 will indicate whether the people want to continue the present so-called "parliamentarist" system or return to the strong-executive form; then Congress will determine the precise structure to be given to the preferred system.

Although the pre-election campaigns were turbulent, the elections were orderly, and normalcy (but with continuing inflation) has returned. President Kennedy is to visit Brazil Nov. 12-15.

HWB:jn