April 10, 1959

Mr. Herman Kahn
Princeton University
Center of International Studies
Woodrow Wilson Hall
Princeton, New Jersey

Dear Herman:

Thank you for your note of April 1st. I too would enjoy an opportunity to have a long chat with you. You are correct that I have a security clearance at both WSEG and ORO. May I suggest that you call me and we can work out a meeting. The ideal situation, from my point of view, would be to bring you up here to meet some of my associates and then you and I could have a chat afterwards.

PRINCETON UNIVERSITY

CENTER OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
WOODROW WILSON HALL
PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY

May 4, 1959

Dr. H. A. Kissinger
Center for International Studies
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts

Dear Henry:

It was good seeing you again at the Council of Foreign Relations. I suspect that most of the audience received only a confused idea of what I was trying to explain, though I hope less confused than my explanation.

I mentioned to you that I am planning on repeating the three lectures on thermonuclear war on May 29 and May 30. As a glance at the calendar will tell you this is the Memorial Day weekend. (The choice was deliberate; we want only serious people.) In addition to being serious I would like them to be good "consumers" or good critics, preferably both. We are planning on holding attendance to about 45, so space is somewhat limited, but if you know of anybody who can meet my "rigid" qualifications and who I specially ought to invite, I would be delighted to receive some suggestions.

I am enclosing two copies of the program to refresh your memory as to what the lectures are about and to use as throwaways.

HK:BS
Enclosures 2

WOODROW WILSON SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

# I. The Nature and Feasibility of Thermonuclear War

This lecture asks the questions, "Is it ever profitable to initiate a thermonuclear war? Can thermonuclear war be an extension of policy by other means?"

It is concluded that there are plausible, even probable, circumstances in which both questions can be answered in the affirmative. In arriving at these conclusions it is necessary to look at seven distinct phases of a thermonuclear war.

1. Various phased prewar programs

2. Wartime performance with different preattack and attack conditions

3. The acute fallout problems

4. Survival and patchup

5. Economic recuperation

6. Long term medical problems

7. Genetic problems

## II. The Formulation and Testing of Strategic Objectives and Plans

This lecture asks such questions as, "Why and how would the United States or the Soviet Union initiate such a war? How might it be fought and terminated?"

In discussing these questions it is desirable to distinguish at least three kinds of deterrence:

* Type One The Deterrence of Direct Attacks

* Type Two The Deterrence of Extreme Provocations

* Type Three The Deterrence of Moderate Provocations

The requirements for the three kinds of deterrence, their interactions, some of the strains to which they might be subjected, and the probability and possible consequences of failure are discussed. Finally criteria are set up for use in the design and testing of the composition and posture of strategic forces and the corresponding war plans.

### III. World War I through World War VIII

Some characteristics of eight wars, real or hypothetical, are analyzed partly to show some relations between strategy, tactics, and technology over time; and partly to illustrate certain historical themes or possibilities. The eight wars are assumed to have occurred as follows: 1914, 1939, 1951, 1956, 1961, 1965, 1969, and 1973. The first two are history; the next two are semi-history, because the poses are partially known, we can speculate relatively concretely about the possible course of events; 1961 is the war, which in a manner of speaking, we face today; 1965 and 1969 are the wars which we are preparing for; and 1973 represents an additional war which we should, at least, be studying but which is so far in the future that it is hard to grasp even dimly. In addition to representing a new stage in technology, each war seems to have themes associated with them as follows:

1914 An accident prone world miscalculates

1939 All three kinds of deterrence fail. The textbooks are thrown away.

1951 A superior nation risks disaster

1956 Type Two Deterrence wanes

1961 The Soviet Union attains "parity." Type Two Deterrence disappears.

1965 The Prematureness of "Minimum Deterrence."

1969 Arms Control or ? Possibility and consequences of Minimum Deterrence

1973 Fourteen years of progress (or 50,000 buttons)

<table><tr><td>CLASS OF SERVICE</td></tr><tr><td>This is a fast message unless its deferred character is indicated by the proper symbol.</td></tr></table>

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TELEGRAM

W. P. MARSHALL, PRESIDENT

1201

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BA541 PB627

P PS YO89 NL PD=PRINCETON NJER 14

DR H A KISSINGER, CENTER FOR INTL STUDIES=
HARVARD UNIV CAMBRIDGE MASS=

1959 MAY 14 PM 9 39

HERMAN KAHN'S LECTURES, SCHEDULED FOR MAY 29 - 30, WILL BE GIVEN ON JUNE 5 - 6 IN NEW YORK AND SPONSORED THERE BY THE WORLD AFFAIRS CENTER AND THE CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE. LETTER WILL FOLLOW. PLEASE MAKE YOUR OWN HOTEL RESERVATIONS IN NEW YORK= CENTER OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES PRINCETON UNIVERSITY=

THE COMPANY WILL APPRECIATE SUGGESTIONS FROM ITS PATRONS CONCERNING ITS SERVICE

HARVARD UNIVERSITY

CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

ROBERT R. BOWIE, Director
HENRY A. KISSINGER, Associate Director

6 DIVINITY AVENUE
CAMBRIDGE 38
MASSACHUSETTS

May 15, 1959

Mr. Herman Kahn
Center of International Studies
Woodrow Wilson Hall
Princeton, New Jersey

Dear Herman:

Thank you for your letter of May 4th.

I thought your presentation at the Council
was very good and the fact that you received some
irritated reactions only proves that you presented some
novel ideas.

As for your coming to Harvard to repeat your
lectures, I have found out that May is an impossible month
to assemble a worth while group. Everybody is busy with
general examinations and seminar papers. On the other hand,
I think your talks would make an excellent way to start off
the year for us. Could I therefore now invite you to
visit with us next October? I will be in touch with you
later about precise dates.

Kind regards.

WORLD AFFAIRS CENTER
FOR THE UNITED STATES

United Nations Plaza at 47th Street New York 17, N.Y. OXford 7-3934

June 23, 1959

Mr. Harry Howe Ranson
Harvard University
Cambridge, Mass.

Dear Mr. Ranson:

The World Affairs Center and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace invite you to join a limited group of governmental and non-governmental leaders to attend a two-day program of lectures and discussion by Herman Kahn of the RAND Corporation on the subject of "Thermonuclear Warfare,--Its Deterrence, Waging and Recovery."

The lectures and discussion will be conducted in the Austin Auditorium of the World Affairs Center (First Avenue at 47 Street, New York City) on Monday and Tuesday, June 29-30. The enclosed outlines of the lectures and of the schedule will give you a general notion of the scope and intensity of this program; however, I can assure you that no outline and no written report could reflect the extraordinary range, facility and stimulation of Mr. Kahn's oral and graphic presentation.

Mr. Kahn, a mathematician and physicist by training, is currently on leave from the RAND Corporation to the Center of International Studies at Princeton University. He is widely recognized as one of the foremost students of nuclear warfare. His presentation is so far-ranging and provocative that all of those who have previously heard him concur in the view that at least two days are required for adequate coverage of this subject matter with its many profound implications for every phase of American life.

On Monday a light luncheon will be served at the World Affairs Center (cost of $2.00). Participants will be guests of the Center and the Carnegie Endowment at cocktails following the Monday afternoon discussion. Will you please let me know whether to expect you?

Enclosures

Founded by the Foreign Policy Association in cooperation with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

OUTLINE of PROGRAM
on
THERMONUCLEAR WARFARE,--ITS DETERRENCE, WAGING and RECOVERY
by HERMAN KAHN
at WORLD AFFAIRS CENTER, NEW YORK CITY

JUNE 29 and 30, 1959

Monday, June 29, 1959

Lecture I: The Nature and Impact of Various Kinds of Thermonuclear War

<table><tr><td>9:30 - 10:30</td><td>Long-term problems and effects</td></tr><tr><td>10:30 - 11:00</td><td>Coffee and discussion</td></tr><tr><td>11:00 - 12:00</td><td>Short-term problems and effects</td></tr><tr><td>12:00 - 12:30</td><td>Discussion</td></tr><tr><td>12:30 - 2:15</td><td>Luncheon (at World Affairs Center)</td></tr></table>

Lecture II: The Formulation and Testing of Strategic Objectives and Plans

<table><tr><td>2:30 - 3:30</td><td>Conflicting Peacetime and Wartime Objectives</td></tr><tr><td>3:30 - 4:00</td><td>Coffee and discussion</td></tr><tr><td>4:00 - 5:00</td><td>Performance and Requirements</td></tr><tr><td>5:00 - 5:30</td><td>Discussion</td></tr><tr><td>5:45 - 7:15</td><td>Cocktails (at World Affairs Center)</td></tr></table>

Tuesday, June 30, 1959

Lecture III: World War I through World War VIII

<table><tr><td>9:30 - 10:30</td><td>Background and History</td></tr><tr><td>10:30 - 11:00</td><td>Coffee and discussion</td></tr><tr><td>11:00 - 12:00</td><td>Conjectures about the Future</td></tr><tr><td>12:00 - 12:30</td><td>Discussion</td></tr><tr><td>12:30 - 2:15</td><td>Luncheon (not provided; UN Dining Room and restaurants in area)</td></tr><tr><td>2:30 - 5:00</td><td>"Optional" discussion (Not a requisite to attendance but previous listeners have found it invaluable.)</td></tr></table>

-2-

# OUTLINE OF LECTURES

## I. The Nature and Impact of Various Kinds of Thermonuclear War

This lecture asks the questions, "Could it ever be profitable to initiate a thermonuclear war?"

It is concluded that there are plausible, even probable, circumstances in which this question could be answered in the affirmative. In arriving at these conclusions it is necessary to look at seven distinct phases of a thermonuclear war.

(1) Various phased programs for deterrence and defense and their relations to foreign policy (2) Wartime performance with different pre-attack and attack conditions (3) The acute fallout problems (4) Survival and patch-up (5) Economic recuperation (6) Long-term medical problems (7) Genetic problems.

This lecture asks such questions as, "Why and how might thermonuclear war be initiated?"

The requirements for the three kinds of deterrence, their interactions, some of the strains to which they might be subjected, and the probability and possible consequences of failure are discussed. Finally criteria are set up for use in the design and testing of the composition and posture of strategic forces.

The **RAND** Corporation

1700 MAIN ST. • SANTA MONICA • CALIFORNIA

December 16, 1960

L-25239

Dr. Henry A. Kissinger
Center for International Affairs
Harvard University
6 Divinity Avenue
Cambridge 38, Massachusetts

Dear Henry:

I was delighted to receive your letter. I agree with your point that some parts of the book strengthen the unilateral disarmers. Unfortunately, it is difficult not to do this even in a sober (but realistic) discussion of the security problem and the arms race. I had the book published with some misgivings for that reason. However, I really do believe that it is worthwhile to have some serious discussion of the problem even if in some circles the net impact will be negative. We certainly will not be adequately prepared unless we have such discussions in both public and private. In any case, I will be delighted to see you the next time I am in the Boston area and discuss this problem at greater length.

The main reason for writing, though, is to extend to you an invitation to visit RAND at your convenience. I am starting an activity known as the National Security Seminar here which bears some semblance to the kind of thing that you do for the Harvard Defense Studies, though it is not the same thing. I hope to send you some material on this activity later, and if you don't happen to visit us soon as a result of your current schedule, to arrange for a special trip to talk to me and some of my colleagues.

HK:pp

December 30, 1960

Dr. Herman Kahn
Physics Department
The RAND Corporation
1700 Main Street
Santa Monica, California

Dear Herman:

Thanks for your letter of December 16th. My comment about the unilateral disarmers was not meant as a criticism. In fact, as I wrote you, I consider your book the definitive work in the field; one that makes all of us who have preceded you look like amateurs. I shall say so in a review that I am doing of it.

My only regret is that it is not organized better, because I fear that this may limit the audience it deserves.

I appreciate your invitation to visit RAND. As you may know, I have never been there, and I would very much like an opportunity to talk to you and your colleagues. I do not have any present plans to go to the West Coast, so we would have to work out a special trip. I probably could not do it before April.

I understand that Harry Ransom has been urging you to come to visit our Defense Policy Seminar, and I hope very much that he can persuade you. It would be a pleasure to welcome you here.

With kind regards and all good wishes for the new year.

Henry V. Krasner

you here.

that he can beraude you. It would be a pleasure to welcome
to come to visit our Degree Policy Seminar, and I hope very much
I understood that Harry Krasner has been urging you

not do it before Abil.
we would have to work out a special trip. I properly confid
do not have any present plans to go to the West Coast, so
like an opportunity to talk to you and your colleagues. I
you may know, I have never been there, and I would very much
I appreciate your invitation to visit RAND. Ya

because I fear that this may limit the audience it deserves.
My only regret is that it is not organised better.

am doing of it.

You look like amazona. I should say so in a review that I
work in the field; one that makes all of us who have preceded
In fact, as I wrote you, I consider your work the definitive
about the unilateralist quarrel was not meant as a criticism.

Dear Herman:

Santa Monica, California
1100 Main Street
The RAND Corporation
Physics Department
Dr. Herman Kahn

December 30, 1960

HUDSON INSTITUTE

QUAKER RIDGE ROAD, HARMON-ON-HUDSON, N. Y. 10520 CABLE ADDRESS HUDSON 914 RO 2-0700

July 13, 1964

Mr. Henry A. Kissinger
Center for International Affairs
Harvard University
Cambridge 38, Massachusetts

Dear Mr. Kissinger:

I am enclosing 85 letters for your signature, as arranged with you
before your departure for San Francisco. They are accompanied by a
mailing list.

If the acceptance rate runs as high even as 50%, I should be most
surprised. Hence there appears to be no danger of crowding the
facilities of Lamont #511 by sending out 85 letters.

The mailing list serves to let you know to whom invitations will be
sent and enables you to indicate which recipients you wish to be
addressed by their first name or nickname. You may, of course, veto
any persons whom you do not wish to invite.

Please be so good as to send back one copy of the mailing list to
me with your notations, if any, as well as the signed letters. We
shall type in the address and the line beginning "Dear ..." and then
mail all letters from here.

I do hope you had a pleasant trip to California and I look forward to
seeing you quite soon in Cambridge.

Warmest thanks for your help.

FK/evn
Enclosures

BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY - List #1

Organization

American Research & Development Corporation
John Hancock Building
Boston 16, Massachusetts

Arthur D. Little, Incorporated
30 Memorial Drive
Cambridge 42, Massachusetts

Avco Corporation
201 Lowell Street
Wilmington, Massachusetts

Avco-Everett Research Laboratories
2385 Revere Beach Parkway
Everett 49, Mass.

Invitee

Doriot, General Georges F.
President

Gavin, James M. (General)
President

Kyger, Dr. Jack A.
Vice President & Assistant General Manager

Douglas Kenna, VP & General Manager

Kantrowitz, Dr. Atthur, Director

The Cabot Corporation
125 High Street
Boston 10, Massachusetts

Cabot, Louis W.
President & Director

Christian Science Monitor
1 Norway Street
Boston 15, Massachusetts

Canham, Erwin
Editor

Edgerton, Germeshausen & Grier, Incorporated
160 Brookline Avenue
Boston 15, Massachusetts

Gage, George H.
Corporate Planning Director

First National Bank of Boston
67 Milk Street
Boston 6, Massachusetts

Semenenko, Serge
Vice Chairman

Geophysics Corporation of America
Burlington Road
Bedford, Massachusetts

Greenberg, Milton
President & Chairman

High Voltage Engineering Corporation
South Bedford Street
Burlington, Massachusetts

Trump, John G.
Chairman

Itek Corporation
10 Maguire Road
Lexington 73, Massachusetts

Lindsay, Franklin A.
President

B & I - List #1

- 3 -

Technical Operations, Incorporated
South Avenue
Burlington, Massachusetts

Schorr, Marvin G.
President

Henriques, Frederick C.
Chairman & President, Technical
Operations Research

Transitron Electronics Corporation
168 Albion Street
Wakefield, Massachusetts

Bakalar, Leo
Chairman & Treasurer

United Fruit Company
30 St. James Avenue
Boston 16, Massachusetts

Folsom, Victor C.
Vice President, General Counsel &
Director

United Research, Incorporated
1730 Cambridge Street
Cambridge, Massachusetts

Baker, Charles D., Jr.
Vice President & Treasurer

HUDSON INSTITUTE MEMBERS

FELLOW MEMBERS

Bloomfield, Professor Lincoln P.
Center for International Studies
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
50 Memorial Drive
Cambridge 39, Massachusetts

Cavers, Professor David F.
Harvard Law School
Harvard University
Cambridge 38, Massachusetts

Fisher, Professor Roger
Harvard Law School
Harvard University
Cambridge 38, Massachusetts

Kaufmann, Professor William W.
Center for International Studies
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
50 Memorial Drive
Cambridge 39, Massachusetts

Millikan, Professor Max F.
Director
Center for International Studies
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Cambridge 39, Massachusetts

Schelling, Professor Thomas C.
Center for International Affairs
Harvard University
Cambridge 38, Massachusetts

Sohn, Professor Louis B.
Harvard Law School
Harvard University
Cambridge 38, Massachusetts

PUBLIC MEMBERS

McCormack, Major General James
Vice President
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
77 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge 39, Massachusetts

Overhage, Dr. Carl F. J.
Lincoln Laboratory
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Lexington 73, Massachusetts

ACADEMIC

Doty, Professor Paul
Department of Chemistry
Harvard University
Cambridge 38, Massachusetts

Freedman, Jerome
Head, Radar Division
M.I.T. Lincoln Laboratory
Lexington 73, Massachusetts

Hagen, Everett
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Cambridge, Massachusetts

Johnson, Howard Wesley
Dean, School of Industrial Management
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Cambridge, Massachusetts

Kaysen, Professor Carl
Littauer Center of Public Administration
Harvard University
Cambridge 38, Massachusetts

Price, Professor Don. K.
Littauer Center of Public Administration
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts

Riesman, Professor David
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts

Shulman, Professor Marshall D.
Russell Research Center
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts

BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY - List #2

<table><thead><tr><th>Organization</th><th>Invitee</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Ace Electronics Association, Inc.,<br>99 Dover Street<br>Somerville 44, Massachusetts</td><td>Solomon, Aaron N.<br>President</td></tr><tr><td>Aerospace Research, Inc.<br>130 Lincoln Street<br>Brighton 35, Massachusetts</td><td>Shapiro, L. Dennis<br>President</td></tr><tr><td>Airtechnology Corporation<br>640 Memorial Drive<br>Cambridge 39, Massachusetts</td><td>Mc Morrow, William H.<br>President</td></tr><tr><td>Allis Chalmers Manufacturing Company<br>1344 Hyde Park Avenue<br>Hyde Park 36, Massachusetts</td><td>Chipman, J. F.<br>General Manager</td></tr><tr><td>Bay State Electronics Corporation<br>225 Crescent Street<br>Waltham 54, Massachusetts</td><td>Cutler, D. F.; Jr.,<br>President</td></tr><tr><td>The Boston Globe Newspaper Company<br>135 Morrissey Blvd.,<br>Boston 7, Massachusetts</td><td>Taylor, William Davis<br>Publisher</td></tr><tr><td>Computer Control Company, Inc.,<br>Old Connecticut Path<br>Framingham, Massachusetts</td><td>Kessel, B.<br>President</td></tr><tr><td>Control Equipment Corporation<br>19 Kearney Road<br>Needham Heights 94, Massachusetts</td><td>Adams, Harry E.<br>President & Sales Manager</td></tr><tr><td>Cramer Electronics, Inc.<br>320 Needham Street<br>Newton, Massachusetts</td><td>Cronin, T. X.<br>President</td></tr><tr><td>Dewey and Almy Chemical<br>(Div. W. R. Grace & Co.)<br>62 Whittemore Avenue<br>Cambridge 40, Massachusetts</td><td>Blackwood, George W.<br>President</td></tr><tr><td>Dynamics Research Corporation<br>38 Montvale Avenue<br>Stoneham, Massachusetts</td><td>Anderegg, John S., Jr.<br>President</td></tr></tbody></table>

BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY - LIST #2

- 3 -

Minneapolis-Honeywell Regulator Company
(Boston Division)
40 Life Street
Boston, Massachusetts

Schwartz, G. J.
Vice President

Nortronics
(Div. of Northrop Corporation)
100 Morse Street
Norwood, Massachusetts

Jones, W. A.
Vice President

Nuclear Metals, Inc.,
P. O. Box 222
Concord, Massachusetts

Willis, H. H.
President

Otis Elevator Company
130 Clarendon Street
Boston 16, Massachusetts

Smith, Harold W.
General Manager

Radio Corporation of America
(Aerospace Communications & Controls Div.)
P. O. Box 588
Burlington, Massachusetts

Kessler, I. K.
Vice President & General Manager

(Memory Products Division)
64 "A" St.
Needham Heights 64, Mass.

K. M. McLaughlin
Department Manager

Sage Laboratories, Inc
3 Huron Drive
Natick, Massachusetts

Theodore S. Saad
President

Sanborn Company
175 Wyman St.
Waltham 54, Massachusetts

A. E. Lonnberg
President

Sigma Instruments, Inc
170 Pearl Street
Braintree 85, Massachusetts

John J. Moran
Executive Vice President

Standard-Thompson Corporation
152 Grove Street
Waltham 54, Massachusetts

Harry P. Neher, Jr.
President

-4-

United Electric Controls Company
85 School Street
Watertown 72, Massachusetts

United Shoe Machinery Corporation
140 Federal Street
Boston 7, Massachusetts

University Press of Cambridge, Inc
11 Leon Street
Boston 15, Massachusetts

A. W. Reis
President

William S. Brewster
President

Spencer M. Cowan
President

Law School of Harvard University

Cambridge 38, Mass.

28 July 1964

Professor Henry A. Kissinger
Center for International Affairs
6 Divinity Avenue

Dear Henry:

Thank you for your invitation
to the Kahn lecture. Unfortunately,
I am leaving for Tokyo on the morn-
ing of August 6.

DEC 16 1968

HUDSON INSTITUTE

QUAKER RIDGE ROAD, CROTON-ON-HUDSON, N. Y. 10520 914 RO 2-0700

11 December 1968

Professor Henry A. Kissinger
Center for International Affairs,
Harvard University
6 Divinity Avenue
Cambridge, Massachusetts

Dear Professor Kissinger:

Before he left for Saigon, Herman was planning on
formulating a list of tough-minded intellectuals to
send you in connection with suggestions for the President-
elect.

I, in the haste of Herman's departure, neglected to
remind him to do so. I have sent him a reminder to Saigon,
and perhaps he will have a chance to work on it there.