[Y]

IN0413 henry

DEPT.

tries will improve, though I would expect
full recognition to be withheld pending
agreement on an overall settlement.<-

[14]

The Palestinians' major achievement in the initial period is the de facto recognition of a Palestinian entity and the establishment of the PLO as the governing authority in the occupied territories. After a while, this fact is bound to alter the negotiating pattern fundamentally. Once follow-on talks begin, the continuing presence of Israeli settlements, military bases, and unrestricted use of roads is likely to be challenged (later in the period). The Sharon government's decision to permit Jewish settlement in the OPT is another factor that will lengthen the war by several years, although it will not end the conflict. The current situation has been the result of a long period of time, during which the established Israeli leadership has been seeking to retain public support.

[13]

An even more serious challenge may come from within the Muslim world. Since 1948, every major step toward peace in the Middle East has been followed by an increase in terrorism. Dissident groups have tried to interrupt the process either by assassinating those who carried it forward, as happened to Sadat, or by triggering Israeli retaliation. Some leading Israelis seem to

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1993-09-17 15:12 63-96 S #7

EXP: HOTEL RITZ

["NO413 henry", "DEPT.", "believe that Arafat and the police force that\nthe PLO will be permitted to organize will\nhelp keep the West Bank quiet. But the\n``strong'' Palestinian police force envi-\nsioned in the agreement is likely to become,\nat best, a study in ambivalence. With what\nenergy will they resist acts aimed at sub-\nverting the Israeli presence? With what\nconviction will they pursue terrorists re-\nturning from Israel? At what point will they\nbecome the problem rather than the\nsolution?<-", "The most serious danger is that the dissi-\ndent groups will try to create Lebanese-\nstyle conditions in the occupied territories.\nThe central authorities may not be able to\nprevent terrorism, either against moderate\nArabs or against Israelis on the West Bank.\nIf conditions become too chaotic, Israel\nmay intervene, or outside Arab forces may\ntry to infiltrate the West bank, or both. The\nsame result could occur if the PLO entity\nseeks to intervene in Jordan. All these de-\nvelopments could usher in another Middle\nEast war.<-", "[21]", {"bbox": [725, 1256, 839, 1277], "category": "Text", "text":(((MORE))))", "[13]", "CY7", "1993-09-17 15:11 63-96 S #6", "HOTEL RITZ\nEXPI"]

IN0413 henry

DEPT.

The prospects of a permanent peace thus depend on how well the interim arrangements can be made to work. In this respect, the outside world has a major responsibility. While the role of economic development is often exaggerated, in this case rapid progress in that field is one of the few tools available to give the parties-especially the Palestinians-a stake in an evolutionary approach. A substantial assistance program is necessary. America has quite properly taken the lead, but major resources must come from the Arab world. In addition, the world community has an obligation to come down hard on terrorism. Heretofore, the pattern has been token opposition to terrorism and passionate condemnation of Israeli retaliations. That pattern must be ended.<-

Fitting two states into a territory fifty miles wide-the distance from the Mediterranean to the Jordan River-would be difficult even if irredentism were not built into the situation. When I was involved in Middle East diplomacy, I too favored the return of Jericho and Gaza-although to

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[19]

[Y]

1993-09-17 15:11 63-96 S #5

EXH HOTEL RITZ

6

Palestinians inside as well as outside the West Bank, provided
the latter carry Egyptian or Jordanian passports.

These agreements are a significant and, above all, a
necessary step forward. As all diplomatic documents, they
represent a compromise which must be compared not with what
each side would consider ideal, but with what would exist in
the absence of the agreement. They are, however, the beginning
of the march toward peace, not the end of it. And all the
parties must learn to live with what they have built, which is
quite different from what is familiar to them.

The most immediate issue is to understand what exactly has
been recognized and who did the recognizing. Israel has
recognized the PLO but seems to believe that it has not
recognized a Palestinian state and that it can choose the
representatives of the Palestinians with whom it is prepared
to deal. This is surely an illusion. I have in the past

TOTAL P. 88

SEP-15-1993 12:57

FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

TO

759 0042 P.01

3463 Words

Dr. Kissinger Newsweek Article 9/15/93 - PM

The signing ceremony of the PLO/Israeli agreement on the White House lawn was one of the rare occasions on which hope suspends all doubt. No one present can forget the compound of anguish and hope in the nearly Biblical remarks of my trusted friend, Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, or fail to be affected by Yasir Arafat's having achieved, after a tortuous journey, acceptance as a world leader on a level with that of the other protagonists.

The presence of two former American Presidents and of eight former Secretaries of State symbolized the continuity of America's pursuit of Middle East peace. And the courtesy role accorded to the Russian Foreign Minister captured the extent to which America has prevailed in the Cold War struggle for preeminence in the Middle East. President Clinton's dignified