中智培训中心简介

合作交流 Cooperative Exchanges

语言教学
Language Classes

中心环境 Training Center Facilities

中国国际技术智力合作公司(简称中智公司)成立于1987年6月,是中央直接管理的国有重要骨干企业,是中国人力资源领域最具实力和影响力的国际集团。国务院是公司唯一出资人。中智公司以技术智力密集型服务贸易为主要经营特色,以人力资源和技术智力层次的国际性合作为主要经营方式。

中智培训中心隶属于中智公司,是经国家教育主管部门批准,具有独立法人资格的教学培训机构。作为国内较具实力的涉外教育培训机构,中智培训中心始终以满足客户需求为已任,为外国人进入中国和中国人走向世界提供具有国际竞争力的职业培训。

中智培训中心将为您提供:语言类培训,资格证书类培训,高级管理人员培训;为向国际输出的专业人才提供培训及就业帮助等。

中智培训中心将以其优秀的教师、培训师队伍,现代化的教学设备,优雅的学习环境,灵活的培训方式,为客户提供度身定做的培训设计方案,适应加入WTO后,中外文化交流的全方位需要。

主要课程设置:

汉语课程

中国文化课程

外语强化培训

BULATS 职业英语培训及测试

LCCI 职业资格证书培训

秘书职业技能鉴定培训

高级管理人员培训

中国文化 Chinese Culture Classes

Main Training Programs:

Chinese Language Training

Chinese Culture Training

HSK Test Certification

Foreign Language Training

BULATS Training and Test Certification

LCCI Professional Qualification Certificate Training

Secretarial Professional Skills Training

Senior Management Training

## Brief Introduction to the CIIC Training Center

China International Intellectech Corporation(CIIC)was founded in June 1987. CIIC is managed directly by the central government, and the State Council is CIIC's sole investor. CIIC is the most powerful and influential international group in the field of Human Resources in China. CIIC provides clients with a combination of skills and intelligent implementation that form a comprehensive array of business and trade services.

The CIIC Training Center is an independent subsidiary company of CIIC, and has been recognized as an independent educational entity by the Ministry of Education. As a leader in the field of education and training in China, the CIIC Training Center strives to meet and exceed the needs of our costumers in helping both foreign nationals coming to work in China, as well as Chinese nationals leaving for overseas positions, to achieve their professional competitive edge.

The CIIC Training Center will provide you with: Language Training, Certification Training, Senior Management Training, as well as specific professional and cultural preparation training for Chinese employees who will be sent to overseas positions.

With various specialized and qualified teachers, modern educational facilities, a superior learning environment, lively educational methods, and the ability to customize training programs and curriculum to costumers needs, the CIIC Training Center can completely satisfy the educational, professional training, and cultural exchange needs of any company.

丰富多彩的业余生活
Full and Exciting Freetime

## 我们的远景:

创建面向全球的一流培训中心

## 我们的使命:

成为中外文化交流的桥梁,提供通行世界的职业培训,帮助个人成功实现职业生涯发展目标,帮助企业提升员工职业技能

## 我们的理念:

追求卓越

### Our Vision:

To create an international-level training center for professional and language skills.

### Our Mission:

To become a bridge for cultural exchange between China and the rest of the world. To provide the professional training necessary in today's international work environment. To assist individuals realize their career aspirations. To assist companies raise the professional skill level of their employees.

### Our Goal:

The pursuit of excellence in the field of professional training.

中国北京市朝阳区朝外大街22号泛利大厦8层810室邮政编码: 100020

Rm810, 8th Floor, Prime Tower No.22 Chaowai Street, Chaoyang district Beijing, 100020, P.R. China

电话/Tel: (86-10)6588-6020/21/22/23/25

传真/Fax: (86-10)6588-6026

电子邮件/Email: ciiictc@public3.bta.net.cn

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SEP 1 2 2002

Half-Day Conference

Economic Rivalry & the Future of Financial Markets in Asia
Challenges & Emerging Opportunities

October 8, 2002

Co-organized by

Tokyo is Asia's dominant financial center and economy, but for how much longer? Some observers expect China to emerge as the political, economic and financial powerhouse in the region, exacerbating Japan's troubles, such as deflation, and benefiting from the hollowing of its industries. How will Japan come to terms with China's growing strength in the coming decade? Which economy and financial system will be best able to compete in the global marketplace in the coming decade? Which will provide the best environment for foreign investment? Medley Global Advisors and the Japan Society bring together senior leaders from the investment and policy communities to discuss China's rapid ascendancy and what it means for Japan's future as Asia's leading economy.

Keynote speakers:

**Eisuke Sakakibara**, former Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs; Professor, Keio University (Photo)

**Simon Jiang**, Chairman, Vision Century Corporation Limited; Chairman CyberCity Holdings. (Photo) Dr. Jiang uniquely represents the new generation of Chinese businessmen. Based in Hong Kong, his companies are active throughout China and Asia. Dr. Jiang's companies own and operate a number of key IT and infrastructure projects throughout the region and integrate technology and real estate. A Former Fund Manager with the United Nations, he has taken an active role in financing some of China's leading new high-tech ventures.

Other Speakers Include:

Rob Dugger, Managing Director, Tudor Investment Corporation

Yasheng Huang, Associate Professor, Business, Government and International Economy, Harvard Business School

Etsuro Honda, Chief Representative, Ministry of Finance, New York Representative Office

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Ron Insana, Anchor, CNBC
Mustafa Mohatarem, Chief Economist, General Motors Global Headquarters
Richard Medley, Chairman, Medley Global Advisors
Kensuke Shizunaga, Managing Director, Carlyle Group
Jeffrey Shafer, Vice Chairman, Salomon Smith Barney International
Kazuhito Yoshihara, CEO, WestLB Asset Management

Agenda

Tuesday, October 8, 2002

8:00 a.m. - Registration & Continental Breakfast

8:30 a.m. - Welcoming Remarks

8:35 a.m. - Morning Keynote

Eisuke Sakakibara, former Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs;
Professor, Keio University (Photo)

9:30 a.m. - Panel I: Finding Value in Asia's Equity Markets: Transparency, Rule of Law, and Economic Reform

Rob Dugger, Managing Director, Tudor Investment Corporation
Kazuhito Yoshihara, CEO, WestLB Asset Management
Yasheng Huang, Associate Professor, Business, Government and International Economy, Harvard Business School
Etsuro Honda, Chief Representative, Ministry of Finance, New York Representative Office

Moderator: Ron Insana, Anchor, CNBC

10:45 a.m. - Panel II: Economic Rivalry in the Global Marketplace: Challenges and Opportunities for Japan and China

Mustafa Mohatarem, Chief Economist, General Motors Global Headquarters
Richard Medley, Chairman, Medley Global Advisors
Kensuke Shizunaga, Managing Director, Carlyle Group
Jeffrey Shafer, Vice Chairman, Travelers Insurance

Moderator: John Bussey, Foreign Editor, Wall Street Journal

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12:00 p.m. - Closing Keynote

Simon Jiang, Chairman, Vision Century Corporation Limited

1:00 p.m. - Luncheon Reception

Supporting organization:

China Institute

**Admission:** Corporate members are entitled to a designated number of free admissions to this event, based on each company's current membership levels. These reservations must be made at least 48 hours prior to the event. Additional corporate registrants pay the discounted corporate member rate of $125. Non-member admission: $195. Academics: $75.

Please note our corporate membership benefits have changed. You can go to www.japansociety.org/corporate/corpmember.cfm for details or call Jennifer Keane in the Corporate Membership Office at 212-715-1250.

Japan Society wishes to thank the following corporations for their Leadership support of the Corporate Program:

citigroup

Deloitte
Touche
Tohmatsu

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China Institute

China Institute Corporate Lecture Series Presents:

# State Enterprise Reform & The Rise of the Chinese Multinational

Thursday, October 17th, 2002

8:30 a.m. - 9:00 a.m. registration & breakfast

9:00 a.m. - 10:00 a.m. lecture

at China Institute
125 East 65th Street
New York, NY 10021

Corporate Members free; Press & Students with valid I.D. $15

Individual Members $20; Non-Members $25.

Reservations Required. No Shows Will Be Billed. Continental Breakfast Included.

## SEAN M. DOUGHERTY IS AN ECONOMIST IN THE CONFERENCE BOARD'S

Economic Program. The Conference Board is the world's leading research and business membership organization. The Economics Program produces the Leading Economic Indicators, the Consumer Confidence Index and other major indicators that impact business and financial markets.

Sean Dougherty is a specialist in economic and business developments in China. Using unique firm microdata, he recently completed a study on Chinese enterprise reforms and their impact on business performance. Prior to joinging the Conference Board, Dougherty lived and worked in China. He speaks Mandarin fluently. He is also developing an international initiative to measure science and technology competitiveness across global industries.

## REGISTRATION: STATE ENTERPRISE REFORM.

Please fax or mail this registration form to: China Institute, Attn: Allison Harris, 125 East 65th Street, New York, NY 10021-7088. Tel: 212-744-8181, ext. 129. Fax: 212-628-4159,

Number of Guests: __________

Name: ____________________

Title: ____________________

Company: ____________________

Address: ____________________

City: ____________________ State: ____ Zip: ____

Tel: ____________________

Fax: ____________________

Visa: ____________________

MC: ____________________

E-mail: ____________________

Credit Card: ____ Amex ____ Visa ____ MC ____ DiscoverCard

Number: ____________________ Exp. Date: Amount $ __________

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China Institute, Japan Society & Korea Society Present:

"RECREATING ASIA:
VISIONS FOR A NEW CENTURY"
A new book by the World Economic Forum

Tuesday, October 29, 2002,

6:00 p.m. - 8:00 p.m.

at Merrill Lynch & Co.

717 Fifth Avenue (enter on E. 56th Street), New York, NY

China Institute, Japan Society & Korea Society Members $15; Non-Members $10
Academic $5; Reservations Required. No Shows Will Be Billed.

FRANK-JURGEN RICHTER, DIRECTOR FOR ASIA OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM IN GENEVA, co-edited Recreating Asia with Pamela C.M. Mar, Senior Regional Manager for Asia. The book offers a fascinating insight into how Asia is managing its political transformation and business challenges. Contributors include Minister of MOFTEC, Shi Guangsheng, Hong Kong Chief Executive C.H. Tung, Singapore Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew, Chinese businessman You Youjun and Sony Chairman Nobuyuki Idei.

Frank-Jürgen Richter, a leading analyst of Asian business and economies, influences major business and governmental decisions with his public comments. His portfolio responsibilities include the Forum's activities in Asia, and direct responsibility for the yearly East Asia Economic Summit. As a non-governmental and non-profit institution, the World Economic Forum (responsible for Davos) is committed to furthering integration among East Asian countries. The East Asia Economic Summit facilitates the exchange of experiences and expertise between leaders in business, government and civil society, in the interests of economic and social development in East Asia.

MODERATOR: ELISON J. ELLIOTT, directs a team of Financial Advisors working with Merrill Lynch Investment Management (MLIM) specializing in global investment advisory to public pensions, non-profit, endowments & foundations funds and high net-worth clients. His focus is Asian Pacific markets. He formerly worked in a similar capacity at Morgan Stanley, and served as a Privatization Project Manager for the City of New York under former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani.

With Support From

Merrill Lynch

REGISTRATION: RECREATING ASIA

Please fax or mail this registration form to: China Institute, Attn: Allison Harris, 125 East 65th Street, New York, NY 10021-7088. Tel: 212-744-8181, ext. 129, Fax: 212-628-4159,

Name: __________ Title: __________

Company: __________

Address: __________

City: __________ State: __________ Zip: __________

Tel: __________ Fax: __________ E-mail: __________

Credit Card: __________ Amex: __________ Visa: __________ MC: __________ DiscoverCard: __________

Number: __________ Exp. Date: __________ Amount $: __________

China Institute

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China Institute

China Institute & Asian Women in Business Present:

**EXECUTIVE CHINESE WOMEN:**

A roundtable discussion of the challenges and
advantages for Chinese businesswomen

Tuesday, November 12, 2002,
6:30 p.m. - 8:00 p.m.
at China Institute
125 East 65th Street (between Park & Lexington)
New York, NY

China Institute & Asian Women In Business Members $10; Non-Members $15
Academic $5; Reservations Required.

Two successful businesswomen discuss how to leverage your cultural and language background to facilitate optimal synergy between the two cultures and enhance your careers and working environment.

ANNIE CHEUNG is Global Director- Distribution Channels Management at IBM CORPORATION.

Born and raised in Hong Kong, Ms. Cheung has twenty-five years of experience in global marketing and expansion in the information technology industry, primarily with IBM. She is responsible for the go-to-market strategy and development for global small and medium size businesses to ensure optimal sales coverage for delivery of $20B of revenue. She also spent a few years in both the U.S. and Asia for IBM Asia Pacific. IBM recently granted Ms. Cheung an 18-month leave of absence to spend time with her newborn baby.

RHODA WOO is a Director in DELOITTE & TOUCHE, LLP CAPITAL MARKETS GROUP. Ms. Woo has twenty years experience in consulting with clients on technology issues to solve their investment and financial risk management challenges. A member of Asian Women in Business, Ms. Woo consults clients that include Merrill Lynch, The Hartford, Putnam Investments and the World Bank, amongst others. Well versed in the world of finance, her projects include working with a multinational to implement a foreign exchange & derivatives processing system and conducting a feasibility study for a state pension fund to secure a fixed-income trading system.

REGISTRATION: EXECUTIVE CHINESE WOMEN

Company: ____________________

Address: ____________________

Page 1 of 2

Jessee Incao

From: Stape Roy [staperoy@yahoo.com]

Sent: Friday, November 15, 2002 3:50 AM

To: jincao@kmaglobal.com; tcimino@kmaglobal.com

Cc: alan@batkin.com; william_rogers@aporter.com

Subject: New Politburo Lineup

Dear Henry,

The nine-member new Standing Committee of the Politburo that was revealed today contained no surprises. In fact, Shan had predicted this line up several weeks ago. The lineup is as follows:

Hu Jintao (Vice President), Party General Secretary

Wu Bangguo (Vice Premier), likely NPC head next spring, replacing Li Peng

Wen Jiabao (Vice Premier), likely Premier, replacing Zhu Rongji

Jia Qinglin (former Beijing Party Secretary), likely head of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (the powerless organ that encompasses the eight other patriotic parties), replacing Li

Ruihuan

Zeng Qinghong, Secretariat

Huang Ju (former Shanghai Party Secretary), likely First Deputy Premier

Wu Guanzheng (former Shandong Party Secretary), head of Discipline Inspection Commission

Li Changchun (former Guangdong Party Secretary), head of Ideology

Luo Gan, head of Party's Political and Legal Department

More interesting is the makeup of the other fifteen members of the Politburo. The Politburo has been enlarged to 24 members, including the nine member Standing Committee.

Eight of them represent the Party Secretaries of key provinces or municipalities (as opposed to five in the last Politburo). These include the wealthy and powerful municipalities of Beijing (Liu Qi), Tianjin (Zhang Lichang), and Shanghai (Chen Liangyu), plus two of the wealthiest coastal provinces (Zhejiang and Jiangsu, both adjacent to Shanghai). But in contrast to the last two Politburos, which had no Party Secretaries from interior provinces, there are now three, representing Sichuan, Hubei (in central China, where Wuhan is located), and Xinjiang in the far west. This is consistent with the policy of developing the West, which is getting great attention. But it is also interesting in view of Hu Jintao's experience as Party Secretary in Guizhou and Tibet, and Youth League Secretary in Gansu, all backward western areas.

Three of the Politburo members represent Party functions, i.e., the heads of the United Front Work Department, the Propaganda Department, and the Organization Department.

Two members represent State functions, i.e, Zeng Peiyan (who heads the State Development Planning Commission), and Wu Yi, who looks as though she's taking over Qian Qichen's role of overseeing foreign affairs.

The last two members represent the military. They consist of the two Vice Chairmen of the new Central Military Commission, which Jiang Zemin will continue to head. One, General Guo Boxiong, is Chief of the General Staff. The other, General Cao Gangchuan, heads the General Armaments Department.

Interestingly, Hu Jintao apparently is no longer a Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission

11/15/2002

Page 2 of 2

(CMC), a position he has occupied since 1999. This may be because it would be awkward for the Party's General Secretary to be on the CMC in a subordinate position to Jiang Zemin, who is no longer even a member of the Party's Central Committee. Presumably Hu Jintao will eventually replace Jiang Zemin as Head of the Central Military Commission, but in the meantime there may be speculation as to why Hu was dropped. Jiang Zemin's keeping the Chairmanship of the CMC is consistent with the Deng precedent since Deng stayed in that role even after he had given up his other Party positions.

As many have pointed out, the new lineup is heavy with people whose careers are linked with Shanghai and the Shanghai region. These include Wu Bangguo, Huangju, Zeng Qinghong, Chen Liangyu, and the Party Secretaries of Zhejiang and Jiangsu. The south, in contrast, has no one with current responsibilities for that area (Li Changchun, the former Guangdong Party Secretary, is on the Politburo Standing Committee but with other duties).

This is a preliminary look only. Stape

Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Web Hosting - Let the expert host your site

11/15/2002

Page 1 of 2

Jessee Incao

Sent: Friday, November 15, 2002 4:08 AM

To: Jessee Incao; Theresa Cimino

Cc: alan@batkin.com; william_rogers@aporter.com; smei@kmaglobal.com

Subject: Correction re Central Military Commission

My previous e-mail commenting on the new Chinese Politburo erroniously stated that Hu Jintao was no longer a Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission. The list I saw omitted him, but according to the People's Daily revised bio, he is still a Vice Chairman of the CMC. A corrected version follows.

Stape

Ruihuan

Zeng Qinghong, Secretariat

11/15/2002

Page 2 of 2

Hu Jintao remains one of three Vice Chairmen of the Central Military Commission (CMC), a position he has occupied since 1999. Presumably Hu Jintao will eventually replace Jiang Zemin as Head of the Central Military Commission. Jiang Zemin's keeping the Chairmanship of the CMC is consistent with the Deng precedent since Deng stayed in that role even after he had given up his other Party positions.

11/15/2002

CPC Congress Closes with New Central Committee Elected (11/14/02)

Page 1 of 1

中华人民共和国驻美国大使馆

Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the United States of America

www.china-er

The week-long 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) ended in the Great Hall of the People on the morning of Nov. 14 after delegates to the congress elected by secret ballot a new Party Central Committee and fulfilled other items on the agenda.

Jiang Zemin and five of his colleagues at the 7-member Political Bureau Standing Committee of the 15th CPC Central Committee, namely Li Peng, Zhu Rongji, Li Ruihuan, Wei Jianxing and Li Lanqing, didn't stand for the elections, while 59-year-old Hu Jintao has entered the 16th CPC Central Committee.

The 16th CPC Central Committee is composed of 198 full and 158 alternate members, with new face making up more than half, official sources said, adding that more than 20 percent of those on the lists are under the age of 50.

The delegates also elected a 121-member Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) at the closing session.

The congress adopted three resolutions on the report of the 15th CPC Central Committee, the work report of the CCDI and an amendment to the Constitution of the CPC, respectively.

The important thought of Three Representatives is written into the CPC Constitution in line with the amendment.

Jiang Zemin presided over Thursday's closing session.

The congress, the first of its kind convened by the Party in the new century, is of great importance at a time when China enters the third phase of its modernization program.

Tel: (202) 328-2500 Fax: (202) 588-0032
Email: chinaembassy_us@fmprc.gov.cn

http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/37679.html

11/14/2002

CPC Central Committee decides on Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing
CPC leaders

XINHUANET 2002-10-22 23:30:44

BEIJING, Oct. 22 (Xinhuanet) -- The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) has decided on CPC leaders in Beijing, the national capital, Shanghai, China's largest city, and Chongqing, a major city in southwest China.

Jia Qinglin is succeeded by Liu Qi as secretary of the municipal CPC committee of Beijing, while
Huang Ju is succeeded by Chen Liangyu as secretary of Shanghai's municipal CPC committee.

Jia and Huang, both members of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, are
transferred to posts at the central authorities.

He Guoqiang is succeeded by Huang Zhendong as secretary of Chongqing's municipal CPC committee. He is assigned to another post. Enditem

Chen Liangyu appointed CPC Shanghai chief

SHANGHAI, Oct. 22 (Xinhuanet) -- According to a decision of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, Chen Liangyu is appointed the secretary of the CPC Shanghai Municipal Committee, replacing Huang Ju who has been transferred to work for the central authorities.

Chen, 56, currently mayor of Shanghai, has consecutively served as deputy director of the Shanghai Pengpu Machinery Plant, deputy secretary of the CPC Shanghai Metallurgy and Mining Machinery Corporation Committee, secretary of the CPC Shanghai Electrical Appliances Corporation Committee, deputy director and later director of the Retired Cadre Bureau under the CPC Shanghai Municipal Committee, deputy secretary and head of the CPC Shanghai Pengpu District Committee, head of the Huangpu District, and deputy secretary general of CPC Shanghai Municipal Committee.

From October 1996, Chen served successively as deputy secretary of the CPC Shanghai Municipal Committee and vice Shanghai mayor. He was appointed acting mayor of Shanghai in accordance with a decision reached at a session of the Municipal People's Congress in December 2001 and mayor of Shanghai by the congress on Feb. 26,2002.

Born in October 1946, Chen Lianyu, a native of Ningbo city in east China's Zhejiang province, graduated from the PLA (the Chinese People's Liberation Army) Institute of Rear-service Engineering in 1968. Enditem

x

List of members of the 16th CPC Central Committee

Page 2 of 4

Liu Yandong (f.) Liu Huaqiu Liu Zhijun

Liu Zhenhua Liu Zhenwu Xu Yongyue

Xu Qiliang Sun Zhiqiang Sun Jiazheng

Mou Xinsheng Su Rong Du Qinglin

Li Changjiang Li Changchun Li Zhilun

Li Zhaozhuo (Zhuang) Li Andong

Li Keqiang Li Jinhua Li Jianguo

Li Rongrong Li Dongheng Li Guixian

Li Tielin Li Jinai Li Qianyuan

Li Shenglin Li Zhaoxing Li Dezhu (Korean)

Li Yizhong Yang Yuanyuan Yang Zhengwu (Tujia)

Yang Huaiqing Yang Deqing Xiao Yang

Wu Yi (f.) Wu Shuangzhan Wu Bangguo

Wu Guanzheng He Yong Wang Guangtao

Wang Shucheng Wang Xiaofeng Shen Binyi

Song Fatang Song Zhaosu Song Defu

Chi Wanchun Zhang Yunchuan Zhang Zhongwei

Zhang Wentai Zhang Wenkang Zhang Yutai

Zhang Zuoji Zhang Lichang Zhang Qingwei

Zhang Qingli Zhang Xuezhong Zhang Chunxian

Zhang Junjiu Zhang Gaoli Zhang Weiqing

Zhang Fusen Zhang Dejiang Zhang Delin

Lu Hao Abul'ahat Abdurixit (Uygur)

Chen Yunlin Chen Zhili (f.) Chen Chuankuo

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2002-11/14/content_630164.htm

11/14/2002

Page 3 of 4

Chen Liangyu Chen Jianguo Chen Kuiyuan

Chen Bingde Chen Fujin Luo Gan

Luo Qingquan Ji Yunshi Jin Renqing

Zhou Qiang Zhou Xiaochuan Zhou Yongkang

Zhou Shengtao Zhou Yuqi Zheng Wantong

Zheng Silin Meng Xuenong Meng Jianzhu

Xiang Huaicheng Zhao Keming Zhao Leji

Zhao Qizheng Hu Jintao Niu Maosheng (Manchu)

Yu Zhengsheng Wen Shizhen Jiang Futang

Hong Hu He Guoqiang Yuan Weimin

Raidi (Tibetan) Jia Qinglin Jia Zhibang

Jia Chunwang Chai Songyue Qian Yunlu

Qian Guoliang Qian Shugen Xu Caihou

Xu Kuangdi Xu Youfang Xu Guangchun

Xu Rongkai Xu Guanhua Gao Siren

Guo Boxiong Guo Jinlong Tang Tianbiao

Tang Jiaxuan Huang Ju Huang Huahua

Huang Qingyi (f.) Huang Zhiquan Huang Zhendong

Cao Gangchuan Cao Bochun Chang Wanquan

Fu Tinggui Yan Haiwang Liang Guanglie

Sui Mingtai Ge Zhenfeng Han Zheng

Chu Bo Zeng Qinghong Zeng Peiyan

Wen Zongren Wen Jiabao Pu Haiqing

Meng Jinxi Lei Mingqiu Yu Yunyao

11/14/2002

Full Text of resolution on CCDI work report

XINHUANET 2002-11-14 19:27:45

BEIJING, Nov. 14 (Xinhuanet) -- The following is the full text of the Resolution of the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) on the Work Report of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI), adopted by the 16th CPC National Congress on November 14, 2002):

The 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) has examined and approved the Work Report of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. The Congress fully affirms the work of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.

The Congress urges the central and local commissions for discipline inspection at all levels to hold high the great banner of Deng Xiaoping Theory, fully act on the important thought of Three Represents, conscientiously study and implement the spirit of the 16th CPC National Congress, uphold the principle that the Party is strict with its members, earnestly accomplish all the tasks specified in the CPC Constitution, keep pace with the times, blaze new trails in a pioneering spirit, and further improve the discipline inspection so as to ensure a smooth implementation of the Party's line, principles and policies. The Congress also urges them to intensify their efforts in improving the Party's work style, building a clean and honest government and combating corruption, and work for the overall interest of reform, development and stability. Party committees at all levels should take the important thought of Three Represents as their guide to action, continue to strengthen their leadership over the work of discipline inspection, strengthen Party building, and unswervingly fulfill all the tasks of combating corruption and building a clean and honest government assigned by the Party Central Committee. They should make sustained efforts to improve the Party's work style, build a clean and honest government and carry on the fight against corruption in depth so as to provide a political guarantee for the implementation of the strategic planning and major policy decisions made at the 16th CPC National Congress. Enditem

◎

NEWSLETTER

2300 Connecticut Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20008 Tel: (202) 328-2511 Fax: (202) 588-0032

Internet Address: http://www.china-embassy.org

No.0219 December 2, 2002

1. U.S. Destroyer Visits China Seaport in Qingdao

2. China's GDP: 8% Growth Expected

3. Migration Helps Reduce Poverty

4. China's Basic Medical Insurance Covers AIDS Patients

Summary

□ An U.S. destroyer arrived on Nov.24 in Qingdao, a seaport city of East China. It is the first time an U.S. military ship has docked in a mainland port since the air collision of an U.S. plane with a Chinese fighter in April 2001. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Kong Quan said that military exchanges between China and the U.S. are conducive to improving mutual understanding.

□ According to a report released on November 24 after China's 10th survey among company executives, entrepreneurs are confident that China's GDP will grow by 8% to reach US$1.2 trillion this year. A senior official from the National Bureau of Statistics noted that the result of the survey stands in line with the data they have.

□ Since 2001, the State Development Planning Commission of China has allocated 1.9 US$230 million, plus the 850 US$103 million raised by local governments, to migrate 418,000 people out of poverty regions. Most of them have solved the problems of food and clothing, and some have even managed to get rich.

□ On the occasion of the 15th World AIDS Day on Dec. 1, China raised a louder voice for the society to understand and help AIDS patients. China has a multi-level medical insurance system, which provides basic medical care. All diseases, including AIDS, are included in the medical insurance system. More and more Chinese AIDS patients are turning to the medical insurance system for protection of their rights and interests.

# 1. U.S. Destroyer Visits China Seaport in Qingdao

The U.S.S. Paul F. Foster, a destroyer of the U.S. Navy, arrived in Qingdao, a seaport city of East China on Nov. 24, beginning a five-day visit.

It is the first time an U.S. military ship has docked in a mainland port since a mid-air collision between an U.S. plane and a Chinese fighter off China's southern coast in April 2001.

The North China Sea Fleet of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy held a welcoming ceremony at the port for the U.S. naval vessel. Senior U.S. officers with the American destroyer met with Ding Yiping, Commander of the North China Sea Fleet.

Officers and soldiers from both sides were expected to conduct friendly exchange activities during the visit, the sixth by an U.S. warship since military exchanges began in 1986. Vice-defense ministers of the two nations would hold talks on defense affairs in the coming months.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan told a press briefing that day that military exchanges between China and U.S. are conducive to improving mutual understanding. They are also useful in promoting bilateral relations, he said.

He stressed that Chinese President Jiang Zemin's visit to the U.S. last month was marked by a number of agreements with U.S. counterpart George W. Bush, including the resumption of friendly bilateral military exchanges.

# 2. China's GDP: 8% Growth Expected

China's 10th survey of executives ended recently and a report was officially released on November 24, 2002. The three-month survey was jointly conducted by the Development Research Center of the State Council and the Chinese Entrepreneurs Investigation Team.

According to the report, 57.9% of company executives, up 13.5% over last year, think China's macro-economy runs "normal" this year; 34.2% believe that after China's entry into the WTO, the domestic market will be "favorable" for companies, 16.5% higher than those who chose "unfavorable." The percentage of those who think their companies are operating "well" is 25.1% higher than that of "not well."

Experts say that the survey indicates company executives, who highly appreciate the reforms and various measures taken in restructuring the country's economy in recent years, are confident in the future.

2

Yao Jingyuan, spokesperson and chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, noted that the result of the survey stands in line with the data they have.

Entrepreneurs' optimistic expectation makes it possible to pull up consumer price index (CPI) and ease China's deflation pressure accordingly. Yao said, "Since it's already the end of November, we are confident that our GDP will grow by 8% to reach 10 trillion yuan (US$1.2 trillion) this year."

### 3. Migration Helps Reduce Poverty

"I earned 1,500 yuan (US$180) in the past by growing 30 mu (5 acres) of red-skin wheat, but now I make over 6,000 yuan (US$720) on just 1 mu (0.17 acres) of green-house vegetables," said Ma Ying from Shangdu County, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. She is one of 400,000 people who have lifted themselves out of poverty by resettling in places with better living conditions.

Since 2001, the State Development Planning Commission (SDPC) has allocated 1.9 billion yuan (US$230 million), plus the 850 million yuan (US$103 million) raised by local governments, to migrate 418,000 people out of poverty. Most of them have solved the problems of having enough food and clothing, and some have even managed to get rich, according to Guo Peizhang, director general of the regional department of SDPC.

This kind of migration will play an increasingly important role in alleviating poverty in the future, said Guo.

Migration helps those living in areas with frequent disasters and adverse weather conditions shake off poverty. Inner Mongolia and Ningxia autonomous regions and Guizhou and Yunnan provinces were chosen to pilot the project. With preferential policies and supplementary capital from the state, many people have moved to areas with better production and living conditions and engaged themselves in more highly efficient agriculture and other high-income industries.

Each migrant can claim 3,500-5,000 yuan (US$420-600) from the government, to assist in resettlement and the construction of necessary educational and cultural facilities. The funds needed for production will be raised by local governments and the villagers themselves and through other channels.

Of the four pilot regions, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have developed ways of "expanding towns by migration" and "establishing new migrant villages." The former refers to setting up leading industries such as vegetable growing, grain and herd product processing, thereby extending the channels open to get rich. The latter refers to the process of moving the poor to places with better farmland and water conservation conditions, thus building relatively large administrative villages. At the same time, Yunnan and Guizhou resettled their migrants in both "centralized" and "decentralized" ways. "Centralized" means developing new farmland with improved irrigation facilities

3

for the poor, while "decentralized" means contracting existing farmland within villages to offer better living conditions to migrants.

## 4. China's Basic Medical Insurance Covers AIDS Patients

On the occasion of the 15th World AIDS Day on Dec. 1, China raised a louder voice for the society to understand and help AIDS patients. More and more Chinese AIDS patients are turning to the state medical insurance system for protection of their rights and interests.

"We AIDS patients are also human beings and have the right to survival," said an elderly couple from Kunming City, capital of southwest China's Yunnan Province. They are both HIV-positive as a result of a contaminated post-operative blood transfusion 10 years ago.

At first, they were depressed by their situation. Now, driven by their severe financial problems, the couple has begun seeking medical assistance. Although barely acquainted with its procedures, they have kept vigil outside the door of the social medical insurance system.

When first informed they were HIV carriers, the husband and wife knew almost nothing about the disease and its treatment. Since they had both worked in local government for several decades, it was quite natural they should pin their hopes on public medical services.

But after scouring all local newspapers and government documents concerning relevant regulations, they were still not certain whether AIDS was on the list of "serious diseases" covered by the medical insurance system.

Xiong Xianjun, chief of the medical insurance division of China's Ministry of Labor and Social Security, considers many people are misled by the so-called medical insurance for "serious conditions".

"The medical insurance services are not classified into disease categories. Actually, all diseases, including AIDS, are included in the medical insurance system. Therefore, we haven't highlighted AIDS in any particular way," said Xiong Xianjun. China has a multi-level medical insurance system, which provides basic medical care.

Expensive medical procedures are subsidized by private sector enterprises and institutions as well as by supplementary medical insurance which is mandatory in all private sector enterprises.

The basic medical insurance excludes no illness, said Xiong, stressing that AIDS patients enjoy the same coverage as others.

4

However, he pointed out that AIDS patients and HIV carriers may still confront
many difficulties when requesting additional medical insurance assistance due to
prejudices and the misinterpretation of policies.

In addition, none of the anti-AIDS drugs have been incorporated into the list of
medicines covered by the medical insurance system, said Xiong.

A Wei, a hemophilia patient in Guangzhou City of South China's Guangdong Province, was infected with HIV via blood transfusion. Earlier this year, his local social security department rejected his request for coverage of "cocktail treatment".

Cai Weiping, A Wei's doctor, said that, although AIDS medicines cannot be reimbursed, the treatment of A Wei's complications is covered.

According to Xiong Xianjun, the question of whether anti-AIDS drugs will be covered by the medical insurance system depends on experts' opinions and is subject to approval by the State Drug Administration.

At present, with regard to urban areas, the Chinese medical insurance system covers only employees and retirees. The number of people covered by medical insurance has grown from over 70 million in 2001 to 87 million at present.

Xiong also pointed out that securing employment for AIDS patients would resolve the problem since their employers would then cover them.

中美房地产高峰论坛
US-China Real Estate Summit

US-China Real Estate Summit

October 7, 2002

ORGANIZERS

Ascend Venture Partners
Baruch College/City

University of New York

The New York Chinese
Business Association

US Pan Asian American
Chamber of Commerce

SPONSORS

Asia American Business
Development Center

Bridgecreek

China Urban Realty
Association

Coudert Brothers

Deloitte & Touche

Interactive Development
Associates

Merrill Lynch

COMMITTEE

Executive Chairman

Kelly Chow

Co-Chairmen

Lun Feng

Frank Jao

John Wang

Henry Wollman

Executive Directors

Monita Mo

Xue Ya

Executive Committee

Charles Aster

Bill Brothers

Daniel Lou

Howard Li

James Liu

Steve Qin

Allen Wu

William Yip

CONTACT

New York

Tel: (212)382-5516

Fax: (212)382-5519

Los Angeles

Tel: (626) 274-1060

Fax: (630) 982-3727

Beijing

Tel: 8610 8460 5723

Fax: 8610 8460 5831

Shanghai

Tel: 8621 64335455

Fax: 8621 64335449

ucres@fusionmg.net

Dear Dr. Kissinger,

I am honored to invite you to attend the US-China Real Estate
Summit to be held in both New York and Los Angeles from
December 5th to December 11th, 2002.

The Summit will offer a unique chance for the top real estate
developers, investors, brokers, managers and architects to join
together to develop an understanding of the business opportunities
in both U.S. and Chinese markets, as well as to better appreciate
the legal, financial, management and related issues in each others'
country.

The US-China Real Estate Summit is co-organized by the Asia
American Business Development Center (AABDC), Baruch
College/City University of New York, the New York Chinese
Business Association, and the Pan Asian American Chamber of
Commerce. The Summit participants are very prestigious, with
extensive US and China participation from government and
industry leaders.

We are honored to invite you to give a plenary address, and we
would especially encourage you to participate in the joint Closing
Reception on December 5th.

We look forward to hearing from you soon.

Kelly Chow
Executive Chairman
US-China Real Estate Summit

SEP-11-2002 17:24 FROM:

09/11/2002 14:25 21:50:20.240

TO:916036491080

P.001/002

中华人民共和国驻纽约总领事馆经济商务室

Economic and Commercial Office
Consulate General of the People's Republic of China

520,12th Avenue, New York, New York 10036,E-Mail:chinacomny@aol.com

He Weiwen, Consul/Counselor, Tel. 212-244-9392 ext1708, Fax. 212-564-9401

September 9, 2002

Mr. Kelly Chow
Vice President, Merrill Lynch
Executive Chairman
US-China Real Estate Summit
Fax. 212-284-5795

RE: US-CHINA REAL ESTATE SUMMIT

Dear Mr. Chow:

Thank you for sending me the progress report of US-China Real Estate Summit, October 30-November 6, 2002, in New York and Los Angeles. I have got to know that you and other senior members of the organization committee are making dynamic headways in the preparation, and that the forthcoming summit has drawn intense attention and involvement from leading multinational corporations in this sector, showing a very high profile of the organizers.

I am interested to understand that this summit will present, in a systematic way, to the American counterpart the fundamentals of China's real estate sector: industry standards, state of the art of its development to date, governing laws and policies, investment models and present status. It will undoubtedly provide an important platform to enhance understanding by the American developers and investors of the Chinese real estate market. The Chinese attendees will also have a good chance to learn more on the American experiences in this particular sector.

As the economic and commercial representative of the Chinese Government, this office will extend its best efforts to support and help this important event, making it a complete success.

I would also like to express my sincerely thanks to you and your colleague

OCT-07-2002 13:11 FROM:

Oct-07-02 12:51P Newman Institute

TO:916036491080

212 802 5944

P.001/001

THE STEVEN L. NEWMAN
REAL ESTATE INSTITUTE

ADVISORY BOARD

Walter Newman
Chairman
New Plan Excel Realty
Trust, Inc.

Lawrence D. Adams
Adams-74 Real Estate
Group, LLC

Merrill Alexander
Sacramento Corporation

Sue A. Abson
Muny 101 Properties

Merrill Beall
Blackman Dudley Wegner
Harting

Jerome Brey
JBJ Associates

Stuart B. Berrier
President & CEO, Company
Dennison Rymar
New Plan Excel Realty
Trust, Inc.

Reynolds M. Bierer
Lქойт real estate
Trust, LLC

Merrill Y. Derry
The Bank of New York

Milton Cooper
KIMCO

Barbara Darnan
The Corcoran Group

Mark O. Doster, Sr.
Pierre Unterwalte, Inc.

George Dorst
The Dow Jones Organizmion

Merrill M. Feldman
Feldman Corporation

William Ferguson
Ferguson Partners

Barbara J. Flie
School of Public Affairs,
Baruch College

Robert A. Feldman
Sage Capital Management

Meyer B. Frenzel
Philadelphia Stock Exchange

Charles Goldberger
Shawn Lawrence Co., Inc.

Matthew Goldblatt
City University of
New York

Annie Gruss
Annie Gruss Architects

Clay R. Maldonado
Hodland Property LLC

Robert Korn
Prudential-Housings Corporation, L.L.P.

Charles Kramer
The Enron Group

Paul D. Lynden
Kavitaevian State University

A. Mini Unibrower
Clarendon & Waltham

Merrill Liffen
The Liffen Company

Samuel H. Lientshaw
Kramer Levinthal &
Reynolds LLP

Robert D. Lewisham
Chesapeake Insurance Services

Joseph Newman
Wynwood Realty Trust

William Milne
Aldo Center Real Estate
Investment Corp.

Patricia Michell
Cortlandt Realty
Corporation

Raymond Milne
Leahy Brothers, Inc.

Bruce C. Muller
Quarles & van der Lippe

John Muir
Mass. Development
Company

Jack Pickett
The J.J. Parker Corp.

Alan Pease
Schmiedt, Silverman,
Peters, Aromore, B.
Barnan LLP

Richard Pengilly
Pengilly Associates, Inc.

Jed I. Pilott
Guttery Construction

Bradley Rymar
Cohn & Stearns Capita
Advisors, LLC

Basil Rode
Rose Associates, Inc.

Robert A. Rabin
Rabin Associates
Management Corp.

Stacy Ries
K & Y Kettering
Lorillard Real Estate
Group

Merrill Roth
Vorhey's Realty, Inc.

Lawrence Ruben
Lawrence Ruben
Company, Inc.

Gerry Ritter
New Plan Excel Realty
Trust, Inc.

Raymond B. Salkin
Merrill Lynch

Stephen Soltz
Salkin (Oxley)Zoltnen

Henry Schultze
St. Louis Realty, Inc.

Charles B. Salkner
United States Senate,
New York

Murry Stadie
The Hoyt Group

David Shlomo
Lehman Brothers, Inc.

Larry Silverman
Silverman Producers, Inc.

Merrill Silvina
Simon Silvina Corp./up

Arthur L. Silliman
Savannah-Cowart Co.
Company

Julian J. Sladsky
Julian J. Sladsky, Inc.

Barbara Suder
NYC Department of
Housing Preservation
and Development

Charles J. Sussman
Ludlow Realty Programs, Inc.

Michael J. Swidler
Millergrove Village Road
Hyness & Lanch (J.P.)

George A. White
Gorling Asset Management

Jeanette C. White
Young Men's Women's
Real Estate Association
of New York

John E. Zecchi
Brookfield Partners
Properties

Baruch
COLLEGE

Baruch College
The City University of New York

137 East 22nd Street, Box C-0120
New York, New York 10010

212 802 5940 / Fax 212 802 5944

October 7, 2002

Mr. Kelly Chow
Vice President, Merrill Lynch
Executive Chairman
U.S. - China Real Estate Summit
153 East 53rd Street, 46th Floor
New York, NY 10022

Dear Mr. Kelly:

The Steven L. Newman Real Estate Institute at Baruch College/City University is pleased to host, as the inaugural program in its new annual conference series on International Global Cities, the China-United States Real Estate Summit on December 5, 2002 at the Newman Conference Center in New York.

We believe that this is a significant moment in the unfolding relationship between the United States and China. The purpose of the new Newman Institute Conference Series, and the Summit are the same: to promote global cooperation and investment between the two countries, and to examine the business opportunities shared by New York and emerging global cities such as Beijing and Shanghai.

The City University of New York, as the great public university of the City, feels a special responsibility in these regards. The Newman Institute, as one of the leading intellectual resources of real estate and development issues in New York is pleased to be able to coordinate this event. We are pleased to be able to join with the government of the People's Republic of China in welcoming the participation of distinguished American firms, including Merrill Lynch, Deloitte & Touche and Coudert Brothers, and the New York Chinese Business Association in the Conference.

Sincerely,

Henry Wollman
Director

Henry Wollman
Director
Steven L. Newman
Real Estate Institute

Oct-07-02 02:03pm

From-BRIDGECREEK

7145968663

T-350 P.01/01 F-730

US PAN ASIAN AMERICAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
WEST COAST

8907 Warner Avenue, Suite 118 ♦ Huntington Beach, CA 92647

Office: (714) 842-7332 ♦ Fax: (714) 596-8663

E-mail: info@uspaaccwest.com Website: www.uspaacc.com

October 7, 2002

2002 U.S. - China Real Estate Summit Committee
Attention: Mr. Kelly Chow
525 7th Avenue, Suite 2301
New York, NY 10018

RE: 2002 U.S. - China Real Estate Summit in New York

Dear Members of the 2002 U.S. - China Real Estate Summit Committee:

It is with honor to extend our support to the U.S. - China Real Estate Summit to be held in New York City, on December 5, 2002.

We believe this unique event can promote understanding of the global market and bring new opportunities for potential investors.

We are pleased to be a co-host and look forward to participating with other major sponsors.

We shall provide the appropriate support and resources to ensure the event is a tremendous success!

If you have any comments, please contact us at (714) 842-7332. We look forward to a successful event.

Sincerely,
USPAACC - West Coast

Biographies for China Reform Forum Delegation

Zheng Bijian, Professor, Male, born in Funshun, Sichuan Province, China, on May 14, 1932. Mr. Zheng is Chairman of China Reform Forum, an independent academic organization affiliated to Central Party School. Mr. Zheng was a member of the 14th and 15th CCCPC. He retired from the position of Executive Vice President of Central Party School of the CCCPC March this year. Before that, he served as Deputy Minister of Propaganda Department of CCCPC, Vice President of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Vice General Executive of the Center for International Studies under State Council.

Shi Zhihong, Male, born in Shanghai, China on July 11, 1951. Mr. Shi now serves as Vice Director-general of Research Office of General Office of CCCPC. Before that, he served as Director of Political Studies of Research Office of General Office of CCCPC, Executive President of Party School of Pudong Development Zone of Shanghai City and Vice Director of Propaganda Department of Party Work Committee of Pudong, Shanghai. Mr. Shi is also a member of China Reform Forum.

Ding Kuisong, Male, born in Beijing, China on November 2, 1957. Dr. Ding now serves as Vice Chairman of China Reform Forum. Before that, he was a researcher dealing with American studies in China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR). Dr. Ding is also a member of China Committee of CSCAP, an international member of British Institute of International Strategic Studies. He has written a lot on Sino-US relations, Asia-Pacific security and China foreign policy.

Yang Mingjie, Male, born in Beijing, China on June 5, 1965. He is a research fellow of CICIR and serves as director of crisis management and countermeasures in CICIR. His major research interests include crisis management, arms control, anti-terrorism. He has written a lot on the above subjects and frequently appeared on Chinese media.

Yuan Peng, Male, born in Hubei, China on July 28, 1967. He is a research fellow of CICIR and serves as vice director of North American studies. He is an active figure in academic circles of China and has published a lot on Sino-US relations.

Hu Liping, Male, born in Beijing on August 16, 1956. He currently serves as senior interpreter of United Nations. Graduated from Beijing College of Foreign Languages (Now Beijing University of Foreign Language Studies), he speaks English fluently and is an expert on English-Chinese translation. He has translated many English books into Chinese.

Wang Boyong, male, born in Hunan, China on December 8, 1972. After his graduation from China College of Youth Politics to now, he works in Central Party School of CCCPC and serves as secretary to Mr. Zheng Bijian from 2001.

Cao Huayin, male, born in Shandong, China on May 9, 1972. Cao now serves as deputy secretary-general of China Reform Forum, dealing with exchange activities with American counterparts. Before that, Cao was a research associate of China Reform Forum responsible for Sino-US relations studies.

Mr. Daniel A. Sharp
President & CEO
Royal Institution World
Science Assembly

Professor Donald S. Zagoria
Trustee/Project Director
National Committee on American
Foreign Policy

Mr. Shi Zhihong Director,
Research Office
The General Office of the Central
Committee of Communist Party
of China

Prof. Ezra Vogel
Fairbank Center for
Asian Research
Harvard University

The Hon. Paul A. Volcker
Honorary Vice Chairman
National Committee on American
Foreign Policy

Mr. Wang Boyong
Secretary to Chairman Zheng
Bijian
China Reform Forum

Mr. I. Peter Wolff
Sr. Vice President, International
Executive Advisor, Office
of the CEO
AOL Time Warner, Inc.

Mr. Yang Mingjie
Director, Office of Arms Control
China Institute for Contemporary
International Relations

Mr. Yuan Peng
Vice Director
Office of North American Studies
China Institute for Contemporary
International Relations

Biographies for China Reform Forum/CSIS Delegation

**Zheng Bijian**, Professor, Male, born in Funshun, Sichuan Province, China, on May 14, 1932. Mr. Zheng is Chairman of China Reform Forum, an independent academic organization affiliated to Central Party School. Mr. Zheng was a member of the 14th and 15th CCCPC. He retired from the position of Executive Vice President of Central Party School of the CCCPC March this year. Before that, he served as Deputy Minister of Propaganda Department of CCCPC, Vice President of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Vice General Executive of the Center for International Studies under State Council.

**Shi Zhihong**, Male, born in Shanghai, China on July 11, 1951. Mr. Shi now serves as Vice Director-general of Research Office of General Office of CCCPC. Before that, he served as Director of Political Studies of Research Office of General Office of CCCPC, Executive President of Party School of Pudong Development Zone of Shanghai City and Vice Director of Propaganda Department of Party Work Committee of Pudong, Shanghai. Mr. Shi is also a member of China Reform Forum.

**Ding Kuisong**, Male, born in Beijing, China on November 2, 1957. Dr. Ding now serves as Vice Chairman of China Reform Forum. Before that, he was a researcher dealing with American studies in China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR). Dr. Ding is also a member of China Committee of CSCAP, an international member of British Institute of International Strategic Studies. He has written a lot on Sino-US relations, Asia-Pacific security and China foreign policy.

**Yang Mingjie**, Male, born in Beijing, China on June 5, 1965. He is a research fellow of CICIR and serves as director of crisis management and countermeasures in CICIR. His major research interests include crisis management, arms control, anti-terrorism. He has written a lot on the above subjects and frequently appeared on Chinese media.

**Yuan Peng**, Male, born in Hubei, China on July 28, 1967. He is a research fellow of CICIR and serves as vice director of North American studies. He is an active figure in academic circles of China and has published a lot on Sino-US relations.

**Hu Liping**, Male, born in Beijing on August 16, 1956. He currently serves as senior interpreter of United Nations. Graduated from Beijing College of Foreign Languages (Now Beijing University of Foreign Language Studies), he speaks English fluently and is an expert on English-Chinese translation. He has translated many English books into Chinese.

**Wang Boyong**, Male, born in Hunan, China on December 8, 1972. After his graduation from China College of Youth Politics to now, he works in Central Party School of CCCPC and serves as secretary to Mr. Zheng Bijian from 2001.

**Cao Huayin**, Male, born in Shandong, China on May 9, 1972. Cao now serves as deputy secretary-general of China Reform Forum, dealing with exchange activities with American counterparts. Before that, Cao was a research associate of China Reform Forum responsible for Sino-US relations studies.

DATE

JUL 08 2002

CORR. FILE: Chipman, John

ACTION: JSR ARB DG SSM
FG TC JI (RAJ)

SUBJ. FILE __________

CROSS REF. _________

COMMENTS:

DC OFFICE:
Jody / Christie / Jennifer

INFO COPY TO:

ROUTE CC COPY TO:

TO BE FILED: 7/9

08/07 2002 15:09 FAX 02073959186

IISS DIRECTOR'S OFFICE

002

The International Institute
for Strategic Studies

5 July 2002

Dr Henry A Kissinger
Chairman
Kissinger Associates
350 Park Avenue
26th Floor
New York, NY 10022
USA

Arundel House
13-15 Arundel Street
Temple Place
London WC2R 3DX
United Kingdom

Tel +44 (0)20 7379 7676
Fax +44 (0)20 7836 3108

Dear Henry,

IISS Asia Security Conference: 'The Shangri-La Dialogue'
Singapore, 30 May - 1 June 2003

Following my letter of 7 June, I am now writing formally to invite you to play a key role at the Second IISS Asia Security Conference to be held in Singapore 30 May - 1 June 2003.

We expect over 20 defence ministers to attend. Some 120 other senior officials and analysts should be present from around the region. I shall also be inviting regional Chiefs of Defence Staff. We anticipate that Senator Hagel will again lead a significant Congressional delegation.

This year Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew made a keynote address at the Opening Dinner of the conference. Were you to accept to attend, we would be delighted if you could play that role on the evening of Friday 30 May 2003, speaking for perhaps 25 minutes and then accepting to take 10-15 minutes of questions.

Dr John Chipman CMG
Director

Incorporated in England with limited liability under number 615259. UK Registered Charity 206504.

7 June 2002

JUN 1 7 2002

The IISS Asia Security Conference: 'The Shangri-La Dialogue': Singapore

As you may have heard from Senator Hagel, and perhaps read in the press, the first IISS Asia Security Conference was a huge success. Some eighteen countries sent their defence minister or deputy. As at the Munich Security Conference, numerous private bilaterals took place, including some important meetings between Deputy Secretary of Defence Wolfowitz and Indian Defence Minister George Fernandes. In this informal format, we were able to include both Chinese and Taiwanese officials, and they of course met discreetly.

During the conference, Singapore defence minister Tony Tan held a lunch for the delegation leaders. All the defence ministers in attendance unanimously agreed that the IISS should host this event next year and many have already confirmed to me that they will attend. Some defence ministers who were unable to make it have already indicated that they will put it in their diary for next year.

The dates for next year are 30 May – 1 June. Happily, these do not conflict with next year's Bildeberg and I hope that you could put them in your diary. The Asians would welcome your commitment to attend.

I attach a few articles that were written about the event. I do very much hope you can join us next year.

Enc

ASIA 65

The Economist, June 8th 2002

## Defence in East Asia

# China feels encircled

SINGAPORE

### America's foreign policy has sharpened a sense of isolation

AT LAST, defence ministers from across East Asia have found a way of gathering in one place to discuss their security concerns. A conference in Singapore organised by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) provided the venue last weekend for what many defence establishments in the region, as well as the United States, hope will become an annual event. It needs to be.

Most crucially it is needed in order to enhance transparency in a region that received about $10.6 billion in arms deliveries in 1999, about as much as the Middle East and North Africa, and which is riven by mutual suspicions and rivalries. China's secretive military modernisation and Japan's efforts to expand its security role could change the strategic environment of Asia, as could potential conflicts in the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.

Although East Asia has long had an institution for discussing security matters, the ASEAN regional forum, this has floundered amid a region-wide disdain for formal, multilateral security arrangements. Defence officials have played only a marginal role in it. The director of the IISS, John Chipman, believes having "an institution disguised as a conference" is a good way to proceed. He says all participants have agreed to return next year, including those invited from further afield, Britain, India, Australia, New Zealand and the United States, which sent its deputy defence secretary, Paul Wolfowitz.

Getting China to open up will be the biggest challenge. Chinese delegates at the conference said China would publish a new "white paper" setting out its defence policy, probably at the end of the year. But western diplomats say this is highly unlikely to mention the issues of biggest concern to Taiwan, Japan and some others in the region. They are the rapid build-up of short-range ballistic missiles on China's coast facing Taiwan, and the purchase of sophisticated weaponry from Russia, including destroyers, submarines and fighter aircraft. "Of course, regarding transparency, we might have different standards, or criteria," said a Chinese participant. "Each country has its own secrets."

The conference organisers say China has at least agreed to send its defence minister next time. This time, a middle-ranking official stood in for him (the minister excused himself in order to hold talks in Beijing with his Russian counterpart). And some experts see signs of a glacial shift in China's security strategy. "We are beginning to see signs of willingness by China to think more multilaterally", says a western defence analyst in Beijing. This includes a more positive attitude towards taking part in United Nations' peacekeeping operations, at least in support roles. Some diplomats see China's support for the American-led military campaign in Afghanistan as a departure from its policy of opposing armed intervention.

But the Pentagon's standoffishness towards the Chinese military has not been helping. Hardliners in the American Department of Defence are enraged by China's handling of the collision of an American EP-3 surveillance aircraft with a Chinese fighter jet in April last year which caused the death of the Chinese pilot. China detained the American crew for 11 days and insisted the surveillance plane could leave China only after being cut into pieces. Following the incident, the Pentagon ordered that military-to-military contacts with the Chinese be subject to stricter reviews. Only low-level exchanges have been approved, much to China's chagrin.

Higher-level contact could help to allay Chinese misgivings. Many Chinese strategists openly worry about what they regard as the encirclement of China by American power in the wake of the September 11th terrorist attacks. American troops have been deployed in Central Asia, an area where China has been trying to expand its influence. America has also strengthened its defence relationships with Japan, the Philippines and China's close ally Pakistan. "It is possible that the stationing of American troops in Central Asia will be prolonged. This could remould the strategic configuration of the area, presenting a challenge to China's security and strategic interests," says a Chinese researcher, Deng Hao, in *International Studies*, published by

a government-sponsored think-tank.

Wolfowitz is cool to China

China's sense of unease has been further heightened by Russia's new partnership with NATO, though in public it is not critical: it values the pretence of its own "strategic partnership" with Russia too highly. At the end of this week, leaders from China, Russia and four Central Asian states were meeting in St Petersburg for a summit of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, a group that aims to enhance joint efforts to combat terrorism and separatist movements in Central Asia. But this largely ineffectual effort by China to involve itself in Central Asian security will do little to counterbalance America's growing influence there.

Later this month, an American assistant secretary of defence, Peter Rodman, will visit Beijing for talks on ways to revitalise military-to-military contacts. It will be tough going. Some Pentagon officials believe that little has been gained from such encounters so far. American officers complain that the Chinese counterparts they meet are usually well-groomed English speakers in jobs far removed from policymaking or military leadership.

America's need for international co-operation in its fight against terrorism has helped to overcome resistance in the Pentagon to fuller defence relations with China (though in Singapore, Mr Wolfowitz offered perfunctory acknowledgement of China's assistance, while praising other Asian countries). Many in the State Department, and President George Bush himself, believe that engagement is worth pursuing even if the rewards are not always apparent. America's allies in Asia and Europe agree. "Engagement is a way of encouraging them to take a less Sino-centric view," says a European diplomat in Beijing. ■

FAR EASTERN ECONOMIC
REVIEW
www.feer.com

REGIONAL SECURITY
# Different Targets

*Many Asia-Pacific countries see the war on terrorism as only one among several key security issues*

By Barry Wain/SINGAPORE

Issue cover-dated June 13, 2002

THE UNITED STATES used a landmark meeting of Asia-Pacific defence ministers to try to shore up support for its global war on terrorism. But large sections of the region, while generally sympathetic and supportive, warned that they don't share the U.S.'s single-minded pursuit of the struggle, or some of its methods.

U.S. Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz arrived at the May 31-June 2 Asia Security Conference in Singapore with several related objectives: To persuade regional countries that the counter-terrorism campaign will be long and hard and should have the highest priority, that Asians are threatened as much as Americans and that more needs to be done to curb terrorism in Southeast Asia.

"If we don't take this war seriously," he told the REVIEW, "this gathering storm of evil and terrorism is going to end up sweeping us into something quite terrible."

The American message to the meeting was that the September 11 terrorist attacks on U.S. soil changed the world. But the response from the region seemed to be that it is only a traumatized U.S. that has changed. As Malaysian strategic analyst Noordin Sopiee remarks, "For most people, the world is exactly the same."

It would be wrong to suggest that the U.S. was cold-shouldered or directly rebuffed. Singapore again warned that the Al Qaeda terrorist network is franchising operations across Southeast Asia. Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew also lent critical support to U.S. President George W. Bush's attempts to overcome congressional objections and re-engage the discredited Indonesian military.

But many delegates--including American, Japanese and British legislators, European defence officials and independent security experts, plus defence ministers or their representatives from 22 nations--saw terrorism as just one among several key security issues in the region. Indonesian Defence Minister Matori Abdul Djalil put it bluntly: "Combating terrorism constitutes only one priority" when Jakarta is trying to democratize, repair the economy and prevent the sprawling country from fragmenting.

Matori and others also emphasized the need to address the underlying causes of terrorism, employing a "comprehensive" approach that doesn't rely excessively on security measures. Malaysian Defence Minister Najib Abdul Razak called on the U.S. to join a simultaneous global war against injustice, poverty and underdevelopment.

Outside the conference, some of Wolfowitz's proposals for dealing with terrorism were derided.

His suggestion that the West encourage "moderate Muslim voices" would create problems for them as they are already accused by radical Muslims of being tools of the West, according to Rizal Sukma of Indonesia's Centre for Strategic and International Studies. "The best thing the U.S. can do is stay away," he says.

Like the Brussels-based International Crisis Group and other non-governmental organizations in Indonesia, Rizal criticizes the Bush administration for moving to resume contacts with the Indonesian military before a mechanism is in place to prevent future military abuses. U.S. concern seems to be focused on the need to deal with growing Islamic militancy, he says, while "our concern is much broader."

## A NASCENT INSTITUTION

Plans are afoot for a second conference in Singapore next year, again organized by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. John Chipman, director of IISS, called the forum "a nascent institution disguised as a conference." The Asia Security Conference is likely to exist alongside the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' 23-member Asean Regional Forum, in which foreign ministers exchange views on security.

Although Japanese Defence Minister Gen Nakatani suggested the concept be extended to a formal "Asia-Pacific Defence Ministerial Meeting," that is unlikely. The record shows that many governments would be reluctant to let their defence ministers take part in a forum without outside participation, delegates said. Indeed, the absence of pressure to produce an agreement or communiqué made the session particularly valuable, they said.

The 11 defence ministers and other heads of delegations did get together alone, however--for a lunch given by Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Tony Tan.

THE STRAITS TIMES : Monday, June 3, 2002

Security meet's
success prompts
repeat next year

The Asia Security Conference worked because it neither tried to paper over cracks nor to be abrasive, says chairman of organising body

By CHUA LEE HOONG

DEFENCE ministers from Asia, Europe and America who congregated in Singapore over the weekend have found the gathering so useful that they have decided to do it again next year.

Same time, same place — in late May, at the Shangri-La Hotel.

Professor Francois Heisbourg, chairman of the council of the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies, which organised the event, told reporters yesterday that the Asia Security Conference proved useful because it "sought neither to paper over cracks, nor to be abrasive or sensationalist".

"It wasn't simply a polite discussion. There was informed public debate and it contributed to increasing understanding," he said at the end of the three-day conference.

He highlighted Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew's opening speech on Friday night which, he said, should be read by all Europeans because it dealt with terrorism "in a way that's neither provincial nor unrealistic".

SM Lee had called on the United States and other countries to cooperate more closely to support non-militant Muslims in a common fight against militants out to impose their version of the religion on the world.

Prof Heisbourg also cited Saturday's closed-door session on managing the terrorist threat in Southeast Asia, during which defence ministers from the region spoke openly about the constraints they faced.

A Singapore official noted that the defence ministers liked the fact

that they could exchange views frankly without being under pressure to come up with joint statements or communiques.

"We are glad the conference went so well," she said.

Singapore, while not the organiser of the conference, provided

the security for the event.

Conference organisers are modelling the so-called "Shangri-La Dialogue" after the annual Munich Conference on Security Policy, which was started in 1962 by German publisher Ewald von Kleist.

He handed over chairmanship of the conference to Mr Horst Teltschik, the foreign and security policy adviser to former German chancellor Helmut Kohl, in 1998.

The Munich conference has been dubbed the "Davos of security" — a reference to the prestigious gathering of top business and political leaders in the Swiss resort town every January.

Analysts say the "Shangri-La dialogue" will complement the Asean Regional Forum (ARF), the Asia-Pacific region's main umbrella security grouping.

Established in 1994, the ARF includes the Asean states, as well as Australia, Canada, China, the European Union, India, Japan, Mongolia, New Zealand, North Korea, Papua New Guinea, Russia, South Korea and the United States.

The Japanese Minister of State for Defence and head of the Japan Defence Agency, Mr Gen Nakatani, yesterday criticised the 23-member ARF as too restrictive for members to take a pro-active approach towards threats facing the region.

"ARF still remains a place for dialogues, and the role of the defence authorities has been limited," he said.

The annual ARF meetings involve foreign ministers and not defence officials.

He proposed an Asia-Pacific Defence Ministerial Meeting that could be used for a more focused and intensive security dialogue that would lead to more concrete security cooperation.

FRANK EXCHANGE

PROFESSOR Francois Heisbourg, chairman of the council of the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies, which organised the event, highlighted Saturday's closed-door session on managing the terrorist threat in South-east Asia, during which defence ministers from the region spoke openly about the constraints that they faced.

Presenter: Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz

Friday, May 31, 2002

Deputy Secretary Wolfowitz Press Conference with Senators Reed, Hagel

(Joint press conference in Singapore after meeting with Sen. Jack Reed and Sen. Chuck Hagel.)

Wolfowitz: Good afternoon, I'm Paul Wolfowitz, the deputy secretary of defense of the U.S. and here with my colleagues from the U.S. Congress we really want to just say how delighted we are to be here and how important we think this conference is. It was a terrific initiative by the International Institute of Strategic Studies to bring together security experts both from government and outside government in the Asia Pacific region to discuss the security problems of this huge and hugely important part of the world.

We're really here just to sort of extend our greetings and our support for the conference. We'll have many opportunities to answer specific questions but in thinking about what to me are the most important themes of Asian security these days I really think of two. First of all the security in this part of the world is critical to my country, critical to the whole world and there is today I believe the strongest bipartisan consensus that I can think of in a long time behind the U.S. commitment to Asian security, the commitment to maintain our presence and our alliance relationship in this part of the world and our commitment to work with all the countries of the region to build new multilateral modes of co-operation and this conference is one of them.

Hagel: Mr. Secretary, thank you. I am Senator Chuck Hagel from Nebraska, co-chairman of this delegation along with Senator Jack Reed, Rhode Island, and we will introduce our colleagues who are accompanying us on this trip in a moment, but let me say that we are grateful first for the government of Singapore hosting this important conference and also to the leadership of International Institute of Strategic Studies as Secretary Wolfowitz mentioned, for their focus and leadership in bringing this effort together.

This, as Secretary Wolfowitz stated, is not only appropriate, important and timely, but it now captures the essence of not just our defense issues in the Asia Pacific area along with the U.S. and other nations. But also it is very critical to our future diplomatic trade relationships all the important linkages to our future and we have been mindful of that in the U.S. Congress for some time, so to bring together as many senior members from as many countries represented here at this conference in the Asia Pacific area is really something very significant.

With that let me introduce my co-chairman of our delegation Senator Jack Reed.

Reed: Thank you Chuck. Our presence here underscores the importance of this conference to the U.S. The recognition of our vital interests in this region but also as Secretary Wolfowitz said the common threat that faces us. If we're wise we can also I think seize mutual opportunities and the beginning of wisdom often is sitting down and listening so we're all here quite eager to hear what our colleagues from around the region have to say. We look forward to a very interesting and insightful meeting and we hope this is the start of many such meetings as we begin to learn more about each other and fashion ways in which we can deal with a common threat and seize mutual opportunities. Thank you.

Presenter: Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz Wednesday, May 29, 2002

Deputy Secretary Wolfowitz at the Foreign Press Center

(Meeting with reporters at the Foreign Press Center, Washington, D.C.)

Wolfowitz: My thanks to the Foreign Press Center for making this opportunity available. As you were just told, I'm going to Singapore for what I guess is the first annual, that is to say, hopefully the first of a series of annual meetings sponsored by the International Institute for Strategic Studies of defense experts from around the East Asian region, including both government and nongovernment, and government officials at the defense minister level. There are many forms of dialogue in Europe on security issues, including the very well-known Wehrkunde conference that takes place every year in Munich that has its history going back, I think, 35 years or more. One of the things that characterizes the security situation in East Asia is there is much less institutional structure, much less of a tradition of talking among countries, and I think it's very important to work on building more of a structure and more institutions. And so I was very pleased when the IISS indicated their determination to proceed with this project. And Secretary Rumsfeld is sorry that he can't go, but I get to go in his place, which is fun.

15 July 2002

It was a delight to see you in New York last week. I am delighted that you now think it likely that you will be able to be the keynote speaker at next years' Shangri-La Dialogue, scheduled to take place from the evening of Friday 30 May through to lunch on Sunday 1 June. I do hope that you have a spirited and enjoyable 80th birthday party in New York just beforehand. Your many friends in Asia will I am sure wish also to pay you tribute in Singapore.

As I mentioned, it would be very useful when you are in Beijing in November strongly to encourage the leadership to send the Chinese defence minister to this event that I am sure Rumsfeld will attend from the US side. I shall be in Beijing in December and hope that they will then be able to confirm to me the defence minister's participation.

In any case, as the time for the conference approaches, I look forward to working with your office to ensure that your participation in the conference goes as smoothly as possible.

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America's right to fight Iraq

By John Chipman

Published: August 12 2002 19:51 | Last Updated: August 12 2002 19:51

In deciding to go to war against Iraq, the US will argue that the elimination of Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) threat can come by no other method. It will want to have a compelling military strategy that minimises the risk of any WMD use during conflict and that deals with Iraq's predictable attempts to frustrate an early victory.

Preferably, the US will have a comprehensive plan for the incubation of the new, inevitably weak, government that succeeds Mr Hussein's. Ideally, America's leaders would be

willing to re-engage forcefully in the Middle East peace process if they are to reap the most enduring strategic benefits from such a large military assault.

But if the US chooses to go to war to tackle definitively Mr Hussein's continued WMD ambitions, it - and any allies that join the US - will want to set out a well appointed legal stall. A new United Nations Security Council resolution authorising fresh use of force would settle all the arguments. Alternatively, if the US is able to argue that there is an imminent threat of the use of WMD by Iraq and that an attack offers the last reasonable chance to prevent such use, it could adduce a right under general international law for pre-emptive action. But divining intentions is hard - and defining imminence of risk and uniqueness of opportunity would be controversial.

A final route would be to build a case based on the history of how hostilities with Iraq were halted and the content of the Security Council resolutions that followed.

The 1991 war in defence of Kuwait was fought under the authority of UN Resolution 678, which called for the use of all necessary means to compel the withdrawal of Iraq from Kuwait and to restore international peace and security in the area. That wording would have allowed regime change to accomplish these aims. Nevertheless, the hostilities were stopped 48 hours after the initial aim of ejecting Iraq from Kuwait was met.

The war ended not with a peace treaty but with a ceasefire. UN Resolution 686, passed on March 5 1991, demanded full compliance with all relevant resolutions as a condition of commencing the ceasefire. Iraq accepted this and there followed UN Resolution 687, passed on April 3 1991, that set out the full ceasefire terms and obligations to which Iraq had to adhere. This included a demand that Iraq unconditionally accept the destruction and elimination of all of its WMD, and that it unconditionally undertake not to use, develop or acquire any items relevant to WMD.

Crucially, Resolution 687 was passed under UN "Chapter 7" authority dealing with threats to the peace. It does not in any way terminate the authorisation to use force in the earlier Resolution 678. That has to be seen as intentional.

The effect of these resolutions, it could be argued, was to condition the continued cessation of hostilities on Iraqi compliance with the ceasefire terms. This heavily restricted Iraq's normal sovereign rights for so long as the ceasefire terms remained unfulfilled. The resolutions implicitly sanctioned the resumption of hostilities at any time

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if there were consistent and material breach of the ceasefire terms.

Iraq is in breach of many of these terms and its continued possession of elements of WMD constitutes a particularly offensive breach that must be seen as a threat to international peace and security.

As recently as November 1998, the Security Council - in Resolution 1205 - ruled that Iraq was in "flagrant violation" of ceasefire Resolution 687. It continues to be. Iraq has behaved in a way that undermines the ceasefire terms and therefore the authorisation to use force in Resolution 678 can be revived.

Some will argue that the passage of time since the initial ceasefire resolution and original UN authority to use force is so great that an automatic right to use force has lapsed. But to accept this argument risks perverse political and legal consequences.

It would suggest that an outlaw state has only to engage in a diplomatic war of attrition to be released from its legal obligations and be freed from the threat of military action to enforce compliance with UN legislation passed in an effort to end hostilities. It would penalise states that had exercised restraint and chosen the path of negotiation by denying them recourse to the use of force to buttress international law, strengthen diplomacy and meet an emerging threat once diplomacy failed.

The Iraqi regime has attempted over nearly 12 years to dictate back to the international community its own ceasefire terms. It has re-interpreted which of the UN's ceasefire terms it is willing to accept and which, once the real threat of force began to wane, it chose to ignore. In so doing it has made a mockery of the UN's authority and disdained the magnanimity of the victors of the 1991 Gulf war.

In the meantime, it has used every ruse at its disposal to keep alive its WMD programme. In these circumstances, the Iraqi regime has surely forfeited the original protections of the ceasefire arrangements and the usual protections of sovereignty under general international law.

In essence, the UK justified its participation in US-led Operation Desert Fox, which bombed Iraqi WMD facilities over four days in December 1998, on the basis of a "revival" of the authorisation of the use of force in UN Resolution 678.

If the US chooses to go to war, Iraq's obvious material breach of the ceasefire and the clear and singular responsibility of the Iraqi regime for the continued breach could be seen as offering full legal justification for the use of force to change the regime. That case needs to be argued sooner rather than later if it is to carry support in the court of international public opinion.

A comprehensive military, political, economic and postwar diplomatic strategy would need to be conceived and implemented to transform any prospective attack from an adventure to a more considered project for the re-ordering of the Middle East on better terms. But developing the strong legal case is, as the lawyers say, a necessary condition for everything that may follow.

The author is director of The International Institute for Strategic Studies in London

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