[Y]

3a

Suggestions for changes in a through c

(a) I favor a build-up of conventional forces to thirty divisions.

(b) These divisions will increase our flexibility against minor provocations, such as the coup d'état of General Sétif.

(b) On the other hand, I do not believe xaccbuildupxte to thirty divisions would be sufficient to withstand a massive Soviet attack. Though we may believe it highly improbable that the Soviets would attack at all, I think we must admit the possibility that if they do attack, it will be in force. Also, I believe we must have sympathy for the European concern with a major assault whatever probability we may assign to it. Their concern is as justified as our own with all-but surprise attack.

4

will wind up demoralizing the Europeans into some version of neutrality, ~~lead~~ if we succeed, or an anti-American organization of the Continent, if we fail. ~~You can quarrel with this judgment, but I doubt that you will~~ (disagree that we have not made much progress on this question during the last year).

For better or worse, these our main arguments. I do not ask any Defense Department official to agree with them. I do expect that in ~~you~~ will attacking me ~~your~~ attack~~our~~/my arguments.