Sotheby Parke Bernet · Inc.

980 MADISON AVENUE • NEW YORK 10021
TELEPHONE 212/472-3590

David Nash
Senior Vice-President

December 17, 1979

Dr. and Mrs. Henry A. Kissinger
1800 K St., N.W.
Suite 520
Washington, D.C. 20006

Dear Dr. and Mrs. Kissinger,

Once again, I am pleased to send you a copy
of the latest ART AT AUCTION, which reviews
the 1978-79 Season. The book will be mailed
to you, under separate cover, directly from
the distributors, and I very much hope that
you will enjoy looking through it.

With best wishes for the New Year,

DNgm1

DEC 26 1979

Conference Update...

Author and Media personalities James Michener, Lowell Thomas, and John Denver are among the speakers featured at the National Space Institute's annual conference, SPACE PROGRAM 1979: A TIME FOR PUBLIC DECISION.

The conference program will also include the following panels:

Monday, June 25, 1979

1. Space and our Standard of Living

2. The Future of the Nation

3. Space Program and Public Needs: Priorities to the Year 2000

Tuesday, June 26, 1979

4. National Priorities and the Space Program

5. Space Program and Today's Problems: Public Understanding

Latest additions to these panels are:

Frank Borman, President, Eastern Air Lines

William Winpisinger, International President of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers

Jim Hartz, TV News Personality

Frank Kendig, Executive Editor, OMNI Magazine

Dr. Robert Frosch, NASA Administrator

Paul Thayer, Chairman of the Board, LTV Corporation

Neil Ruzic, Writer and Publisher

Dr. Hans Mark, Undersecretary of the Air Force

Dr. John McLucas, Executive Vice President, COMSAT

Dr. Nancy Feldman, Leading Sociologist

Frank Jameson, Chairman of the Board, Glenair, Inc.

Reverend R. Pierre DuMaine, Leading Proponent for use of Public Satellite Service

Pre-registration ends May 31, 1979

For more information call Cathy Lesser, Conference Coordinator, at 703-525-3103

MAY 18 1979

Dear Friend,

The National Space Institute's Fourth Annual National Space Conference is quickly approaching. On June 25 and 26, many of our nation's decision-makers will be meeting in Washington, D.C., to attend what we feel will be the most dynamic and constructive conference to date. Our two-day event will consist of five panels discussing issues as controversial as "national medical health programs" and "energy alternatives."

The internationally famous and newly remodeled Mayflower Hotel will be the site of this year's conference. Besides having some of America's most

sought after speakers to further add to the conference, we are planning a few extra surprises that should make this year's conference, *Space Program 1979: A Time for Public Decision*, most memorable.

Below you will find the conference registration form, the hotel registration form, and information describing the conference in more detail. Please send only the $75 conference fee at this time. You will be billed separately by the hotel for accommodations. If there are any questions, please call Cathy Lesser at 703/525-3103.

## About the Conference...

### DATE

Monday, June 25 and Tuesday, June 26, 1979

### TIME

**Registration:** Monday, 8 a.m. - 9 a.m.

**Panels/Meetings:** Monday, 9 a.m. - 12 p.m.; 2 p.m. - 5 p.m.

Tuesday, 9 a.m. - 12 p.m.

**Lunch:** Monday and Tuesday, 12 p.m.

**Dinner:** Monday, 7:30 p.m.

### PLACE

The Mayflower Hotel, 1127 Connecticut Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C.

### PURPOSE

* To define space objectives that are easily understandable and relevant to the interests of the American people and its leadership.

* To create a strong awareness of the benefits of a strong space program.

* To work towards a consensus that will hopefully set priorities of future space efforts.

### ACTION

The conference will consist of five panels. These panels will discuss the space program from the perspective of:

- labor-industry

- philosophy-history

- science

- politics

- Public-at-large

Debate will center around *Space Program Options*, a document assembled by NSI and reviewed by a great cross section of this nation's leadership.

### PEOPLE

Speakers and Panelists will include among others:

- Author James Michener

- Senator Adlai Stevenson III

- Senator Harrison Schmitt

- Congressman Don Fuqua

- Congressman Ronnie Flippo

- Former astronaut, Alan Shepard

- Rocco Petrone, President, National Center for Resource Recovery

- Hugh Downs, NSI President, will preside as general chairman

### REGISTRATION

Registration Fee: $75.00

Pre-registration deadline: May 31, 1979

(PLEASE TYPE OR PRINT)

REGISTRATION FORM

For hotel reservations please complete the back of this form.

NATIONAL STRATEGY INFORMATION CENTER, INC.

111 EAST 50TH STREET
NEW YORK, N. Y. 10022

AREA CODE 212 838-2912

PRESS RELEASE

For Release on
March 14, 1979

"QUICK FIX" U.S. MILITARY REFORMS TO OFFSET SOVIET SUPERIORITY

If SALT fails, is the U.S. doomed to a ruinous and losing arms race? Conversely, if SALT succeeds, is America locked into permanent inferiority? Hopeful answers to both questions are found in a new book. To offset the Soviet arms buildup, America can "buy time" to repair her defense shield through a set of innovative proposals, at bearable costs, according to a study by scientists and former Pentagon officials published today by the New York-based National Strategy Information Center, Inc. The book, *Strategic Options for the Early Eighties: What Can be Done?*, is based on ideas from an independent group of scientists and defense specialists, the Strategic Alternatives Team (SAT), most of whose members are in Los Angeles or Washington, D.C.

The urgent need to design solutions "valid within 1000 days" is prompted by fear that, with or without SALT II, the U.S. will have to traverse a time valley of maximum peril in the period 1981-86. The danger derives from cumulative Soviet gains in strategic weapons, with Moscow deploying newer generations of more accurate missiles, while Washington cancels or delays the production of the B-1, Trident, and MX. The near-term vulnerability of our own ICBMs is acknowledged by the Secretary of Defense; and General David Jones, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently told Congress that we have come "another year closer to a potentially unstable and acutely dangerous imbalance."

Is there any practical way to reverse this trend in time, given the fact that major new systems require 8-10 years to develop? The new study of "quick fix" options for U.S. strategic forces offers positive answers. In the long run, as the book stresses, there are no cheap or magic solutions for U.S. security; the expedient of real-time remedies cannot be considered a substitute for the basic research and development for the next generation of strategic weapons. In the short run, however, ingenuity and innovation can help to close the "window of opportunity" now opening for Moscow as our strategic forces become vulnerable. This can be done by "mining" the last technological advantages out of our present systems, based on research and development of the fifties and sixties.

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What sort of "quick fixes" are available? Some are as simple as moving our B-52s to the central United States, thus making them less vulnerable to surprise attack from Soviet SLBMs or cruise missiles. Other remedies are more exotic. *Lollypop* is a technique for defense against incoming enemy warheads (bombs) by exploding a warhead, carried by a balloon, in the path of an incoming missile. Because of its low yield and the altitude of the explosion, *Lollypop* would cause no fall-out and little collateral damage. *Porcupine* is a system by which half-pound steel projectiles would be ejected into the path of an incoming Soviet warhead to disable it before impact. Both *Lollypop* and *Porcupine* could be deployed within *one thousand days*. Also, if we don't tie NATO's hands with SALT II, thousands of GLCMs based on allied territory could vastly complicate any Soviet plans for a counterforce strike.

The new book also argues that even a modest upgrading of U.S. air and civil defense systems can create uncertainty for the Soviets as to the outcome of a possible attack against us. As of now, Soviet offensive weapons have a "free ride" into the American heartland. However, even limited U.S. defensive efforts can reduce the opponent's high confidence in the success of a first strike and can protect many high value targets. The scientists of SAT feel that an economical "building block approach" to defense, using present technology at the start, can create much more stability than being forced into a desperation "launch on warning" strategy.

One of the most important of the quick fixes discussed and analyzed herein is the multiple aim points system, the "shell game." Designed to frustrate a Soviet first strike at our ICBM silos, MAPS means that as many as twenty additional silos would be dug for each existing missile, so that incoming Soviet warheads could not distinguish silos with dummies from the one with a real Minuteman. Mr. Paul Nitze, former Deputy Secretary of Defense, and Mr. William Graham, of the Research and Development Corporation, are the authors of a paper on this subject. They argue persuasively that we can easily afford the MAPS insurance program. They write that "the cost...would be at most a few billion dollars per year. The technological, production, and operational problems do not represent any insurmountable barriers to a course of action that would significantly enhance" the survival of our missiles. The Air Force has asserted that MAPS would require "years to deploy"; this study demonstrates that a thousand days suffice.

-3-

[lc]

"Quick fixes" in the area of civil defense are explored by T.K. Jones, Manager of Program and Product Evaluation with the Boeing Aerospace Company, who refutes the present policy of fatalistically conceding that 100 million American lives are held hostage by Russia. Instead he shows how substantial changes in war-survival prospects and in recovery time ratios can be effected by relatively modest civil defense outlays. For costs on the order of only some $3 billion per year for five years, it is estimated that U.S. population losses could be less than one-fifth, industrial damage about one-half, and recovery time about one-fourth than would be the case if America continues to ignore defensive systems while Russia persists in strengthening her own means to protect her people and economic values.

The Strategic Alternatives Team (SAT), chaired by Professor William R. Van Cleave of the University of Southern California, was founded in 1977 by scientists at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, Research and Development Corporation, Boeing Aerospace, and other defense research institutes. The work on this project was voluntary; it was not conducted under Government or industrial auspices. The animating concern of the scientists involved was the "Soviet strategic threat that now seems very likely to peak relative to U.S. capabilities in the early 1980s, well before the U.S. could respond." To test and to refine concepts developed by SAT, a "quick fix" conference on this subject was scheduled last June. The SAT group was augmented by the National Strategy Information Center (NSIC) to include such eminent defense specialists as Ambassador Robert Ellsworth, former Deputy Secretary of Defense; Ambassador Seymour Weiss, former Director of Political-Military Affairs at the Department of State; as well as such Congressional defense experts as Richard Perle and William Schneider. The conference discussion is incorporated into the *Strategic Options* book whose editors are Dr. William R. Van Cleave and Dr. W. Scott Thompson, Associate Professor of International Politics, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy; Research Associate, National Strategy Information Center.

The sponsors hope that this pioneer study will encourage other groups in the defense community to join in the serious examination of what *in practice* can be done to turn around the trends in time. Admittedly, a political decision must be made to remedy what many of these specialists consider our singularly precarious defense posture. However, the "quick fix" book shows that the technology is not lacking. Written by experts, it offers the layman proof that we have within our power the ability to use our advanced technology and industrial capacity to reduce drastically the widening gap between the Soviet and American military capabilities. The cautious

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optimism of the authors of these "quick fix options" is, however, tempered by a
final caveat. Short-term remedies are available to the U.S. today largely because
of massive R&D performed years ago. This is our last chance to reclaim something
of value from a backlog of technological advantage that is nearly used up. We
cannot rely on finding "quick fixes" in the future unless we support a more dynamic
and long-range R&D effort than we have in recent years. Further, we should also
seek to encourage joint efforts with our allies to innovate new uses of existing
systems and devise novel basing of weapons-in-being.

The members of the voluntary Strategic Alternatives Team (SAT) include: Dr. M. R. Gustavson, Systems Scientist, Scientific Staff, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory; Mr. Francis P. Hoeber, President, Hoeber Corporation, Consultant on Defense Affairs; Brigadier General Albion Knight, USA (Ret.), Government Consultant, National Security Affairs; Dr. Patrick J. Parker, Chairman, Department of National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School; Mr. Benjamin T. Plymale, Vice President, Boeing Aerospace Company; Dr. Gough Reinhardt, Physicist, Scientific Staff and member, Evaluation and Planning Program, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory; Mr. Donald Westervelt, Senior Arms Control Representative, Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory.

The publisher of the "quick fix" book, the National Strategy Information Center, is non-profit and nonpartisan, organized in 1962 to conduct educational programs in international security affairs. It interacts with more than five hundred colleges and universities which offer formal courses on national defense policy. NSIC is headed by Frank R. Barnett, a Rhodes Scholar who served on General Lucius Clay's military government staff in Berlin and subsequently helped to initiate the Defense Strategy Seminar for reserve officers at the National War College. NSIC's Director of Studies is Dr. Frank N. Trager who heads the National Security Education Program at New York University. Among the Center's other books on national defense are: **Strategic Weapons: An Introduction** by Norman Polmar, October 1975; **The Geopolitics of the Nuclear Era** by Colin S. Gray, September 1977; **Arms, Men, and Military Budgets: Issues for Fiscal Year 1979** by Francis P. Hoeber, David B. Kassing, and William Schneider, Jr., February 1978. NSIC's address is 111 East 58th Street, New York, New York 10022.