-2-

between high hopes and huge despair a generation beyond the
Second World War and a generation before a new century.

The past thirty years have been marked by rising expecta-

tions. Young nations reached confidently for development.

technology held out the promise of growing prosperity for all

countries; surpluses of fuel, food and raw materials were often

considered burdens rather than a blessing. Though there was

still too much misery and despair, there was general hope for

progress. Though old habits of mind, political rivalries, and

economic conflicts persisted, they took place on the margins of
a steady advance.

That time is gone. Fundamental questions have arisen
about man's capacity to meet even his

most basic needs. In 1972 world grain production declined

for the first time in two decades, bad weather struck

-10-

The food problem has two dimensions -- first, the world's current susceptibility to crisis and second, the long-term requirement for an adequate supply to achieve man's aspirations for an adequate standard of nutrition and well-being.

During the decades of the 1950's and 60's world production grew with great consistency. Total output increased by more than half. And even in the developing nations per capita production expanded.

But at a time when growing populations and growing affluence require a continuing and rapid advance we face a potentially critical situation: this situation, in 1972 world cereal production declined as adverse weather struck across the globe.

Weather was generally excellent in 1973, but it fell again to below average in 1974, as a result of reserves have now declined to

-11-

the point that a significant crop failure ~~today~~ could produce
a major disaster.

The nature of the longer-term problem is equally stark.

But Global population is projected to double in a generation. ~~But we~~
~~already~~ face a situation in which hundreds of millions of people
do not get enough to eat to live decent and productive lives.

Since gains in food production are not evenly distributed, the
~~absolute numbers of malnourished people~~ are actually greater
today than ever before except in times of famine. In many
parts of the world 30-50% of the children die before the age
of five, millions of them from malnutrition. Many of those
~~who survive~~ have their intellectual and physical capacities
permanently damaged.

-15-

The United States proposes to convene such a group following
the conclusion of this Conference.

-- The United States has begun to make an effort consistent with the need. President Ford stated to our Congress last month that "To halt higher food prices we must produce more food." He called upon every American farmer to produce to full capacity. He directed that all restrictive practices which raise food prices be ordered, pledged to allocate all the inputs of fuel and fertilizer required, and called for the removal of remaining limitations on acreage. The United States already has 167 million acres under grain production alone, up 23 million acres from two years ago. While maximizing production will help restrain prices, it will require a vast increase in investment. The best land, the most accessible water, and the most obvious improvements in production are already in use. The United States raised its annual investment in agriculture by $2.5 billion or 25% last year. To determine what our farmers will require and

We must strengthen and expand the international
research network linking the less developed countries with
research institutions in the industrialized countries and
with the growing numbers of international agricultural
research centers. This is the task of the Consultative
Group on International Agriculture Research. We propose
that the funding for the eight existing international
centers should be more than doubled by 1980. For its part
the United States will expand its funding for these inter-
national centers, its support of agricultural research efforts
in the less developed countries, and its financing for American
universities' research on the agricultural problems of developing
nations--in all we will triple our contribution in these three
areas to $100 million over this same period. And we are
gratified to state that the network of international research
centers has been strengthened by the addition of the Inter-
national Fertilizer Development Center which I proposed at
Special Session of the
the UN General Assembly. The center opened its doors last

month with funds provided by Canada and the United States.

We invite wider participation and pledge its resources to
the needs of the developing nations.

No indication of increasing food production in the developing world

-- And national research efforts must be brought to bear on the problem. President Ford is requesting our National Academy of Sciences to design a far-reaching Food and Nutrition Research Program directed to both America's and the world's needs. America's best minds will be brought together to focus on this challenge. The President has ordered that the size of this program be commensurate with both the magnitude of the problem and the wealth of our scientific talent.

The United States will share with developing nations the benefits of the world's most advanced national research program. We are working on a vast array of promising projects: to produce greater protein content in common cereals, to fortify staple foods with inexpensive nutrients, to improve plant fixation of atmospheric nitrogen which

will help reduce the need for costly fertilizers, to develop
low cost, small-scale machines for the world's millions of
small farmers, and to better apply the knowledge we already
possess.

And we will launch new programs as well. To reduce
the great uncertainties which annually plague both producers
and consumers, I am pleased to announce that our space,
agriculture and weather agencies will test next year advanced
satellite techniques for surveying and forecasting important
food crops beginning in North America and then broadening it
to other areas. The United States will make available the
results of this potentially vital step toward rational
planning of global food production.

A great deal of concern has been expressed throughout
the world that possible deterioration in climate may affect
man's future ability to feed himself. At the UN General
Assembly Special Session I proposed a major international
study of this question--that study is now moving forward.

-22-

In the United States we have begun a specific study of the
<u>relationship between climatic patterns and crop yields</u> over
a statistically significant period. We believe such studies
<u>can be a valuable guide for all grain-producing countries</u>
<u>and we are prepared to share</u> the techniques and approaches
which we have developed.

Second, increased production will require vastly increased
<u>resources</u>. We can hope for technological breakthroughs,
but we cannot count on them. There is no substitute for new
irrigation systems, new storage and distribution systems,
for new production facilities for fertilizer, pesticide and
seed, for agricultural credit institutions. A revolution in
agricultural policies in developing countries is essential.
In far too many cases, the farmer has no incentive to make
the investment required for increased production because
prices are set at unremunerative levels, because credit is
unavailable, or because transportation and distribution
facilities are inadequate. Thus many of these investments

must be stimulated and financed at home, but the requirement
for foreign resources will also rapidly increase.

Rich countries must be more generous in providing
~~the foreign exchange and technical help the new priority of~~
food demands. Developing countries must give a higher
priority for food production in their tax, credit and
investment policies, and in their development budgets.
~~NoDP~~
External assistance must concentrate
Both groups of countries must cooperate on expanded produc-
tion at reasonable cost of necessary inputs like fertilizers
and pesticides.

To translate this new emphasis to a global scale, the
United States proposes the immediate formation of a Food
Production and Investment Coordinating Group. We must bring
together representatives from traditional and new donors,
multilateral agencies and developing countries in a common
effort. We propose that the World Bank join with the FAO
and UNDP to convene such a group this year:

-- To assure that the required financial and other

-24-

external resources are provided through bilateral
and international assistance programs, are capable of providing

-- To stimulate greater internal resources for agriculture and to assure the more effective use of those resources by farmers, small as well as large, to produce more food.

In the same spirit, we propose a reexamination of
development funds now available to the UN System, to determine
whether existing resources might be redeployed to meet new
priorities more effectively. I have requested the United
States delegation to the General Assembly to introduce a
resolution for this purpose.

The United States has long been a major source of
financing for agricultural development, a role we intend to
expand. We have reordered our development assistance

* IO, EG, & S/WF believe there little payoff to justify the
UN politics nightmare it would generate in New York. Alan
Berg of Brookings & World Bank agrues that UN never adjusts
priorities to meet new challenges and should be urged to.
Shall we keep or discard?

-25-

priorities to place the central emphasis on food and nutrition
programs. We plan to increase such programs from 30-60% of
our development assistance, and we have requested an increase
of almost $400 million for them in our current budget. This
new emphasis in our own development assistance will continue
for as long as the need exists.

-26-

Food Transfers

Our next great task is to transfer food to where it is needed. Even with maximum rates of agricultural growth in the developing countries, there is still likely to remain a food import requirement of some 40 million tons a year in nearly the mid-1980's, or/twice what they now import.

We will fail in our objective of abolishing hunger in the world if we do not help the developing countries obtain the means to import the food they will need to feed their people.

How is the cost of these imports to be met?

First, by the earnings of the developing countries themselves. This is now, and must remain, the way in which the larger part of the food deficit is financed. But we can act to improve the opportunities of developing countries to earn more,

by improving market access in the developed world for their
products. The United States renews its commitment to achieve
generalized preferences for the developing countries and to
focus on their special needs in the GATT negotiations.
Second, through an expanded flow of food aid...

Second, through an expanded flow of food aid, the United States proposes the establishment of a Food Aid Donors Coordinating Group to stimulate the provision of the food or funds required. It would report to the new Development Committee created at the recent session of the International Bank and Monetary Fund Governors. The group should bring together both traditional and potential new donors, especially the oil exporters. As a first task, this group should negotiate a multi-year minimum global quantity of food for whose transfer to needy developing countries it is prepared to find the necessary finances.

For its own part, the United States will make a major
and continuing contribution to the common effort. In the
course of this fiscal year, and notwithstanding the adverse
weather conditions which have affected our crops, the

which lack both energy and food will be the first to suffer.

The mounting strains which result could eventually destroy both internal social structures and, ultimately, the whole fabric of an interdependent world.

The transfer of food from the exporting areas to the importing areas of the developing world is vital to our economic and political health. We must act now and together to determine whether the separate measures we propose to take--to lower import requirements by increasing production in developing countries, to enhance developing country earning power by increased trade, and to expand participation of the wealthy countries in food aid programs--are adequate to meet the need.

I, therefore, propose that the Development Committee itself be charged with the urgent study of whether existing sources of financing, both normal and concessional, are sufficient to meet the expected import requirements of developing countries. If existing sources are not sufficient,

-30-

new means must be considered to assist food deficit countries
with serious financing problems.

Food Quality

Increasing food supplies alone will not be enough
to meet man's nutritional needs. In developed countries,
with ample supplies, the wrong kinds and amounts of food
are already creating serious health problems. In developing
countries, even with growing supply, the rising cost of
food means the poorest and most vulnerable groups are
getting less in both quantity and quality. Even with
massive food production gains, the spectre of blighted
lives could remain to haunt this and succeeding generations--
unless special efforts are made to ensure that food reaches
those in greatest need. In fact we are already receiving
reports of a tragic rise in infant and child mortality
in certain areas, and a dramatic increase in severe cases
of malnutrition.

We know a good deal about the state of global pro-
duction. But our knowledge about the state of global
nutrition is abysmal. Therefore the United States proposes
that WHO, FAO and UNICEF establish a <u>Global Nutrition</u>
<u>Surveillance System</u> designed to identify worsening nutritional
situations for remedial action before they reach crisis
proportions. Such a system should devote particular
attention to whether the kind and allocation of food pro-
duced is meeting the needs of such vulnerable groups among
the poor as young children and mothers. The United States
has extensive experience in nutrition surveying which we
are prepared to share.

The United States believes the UN's Nutrition
Advisory Group should establish an <u>International Program</u>
<u>in Applied Nutrition Research</u>: to set research priorities,
to identify centers of excellence to conduct such research,
and to generate the funding required. The United States
is willing to contribute $5 million to initiate such a
program.

-32-

The United States is prepared to join in mounting
massive attacks on two of the most prevalent and tragic
nutrition problems in developing countries: Vitamin A
blindness and iron deficiency anemia. The former is responsible
for well over half of the millions of cases of blindness in
less developed countries and as a result of the current
food shortages the numbers of blind predictably will in-
crease. The latter is partially responsible for the apathy
and low-productivity so common in much of the world. In
both cases, new and relatively inexpensive technologies
and techniques for fortifying foods now make it possible
virtually to eradicate substantial portions of nutrition-
related blindness and anemia. The United States is prepared
to pledge $10 million to WHO and FAO to help initiate mass
programs toward that end.

-- And we should devote special consideration in food
aid to programs explicitly designed to alleviate malnutrition

among the most vulnerable groups. The United States will

increase funding for such programs by at least $50 million

this year.

Food Security

Our last great task is to assure food security or a reliable
supply for emergencies.

While the measures which I have outlined should, in time,
provide the increase in productive capacity and nutrition
standards to meet man's needs, the events of the past few
years have made one thing abundantly clear to all of us--
years of severe strain and shortage. The world has come
to depend on a few surplus producers, and particularly the
United States, to carry reserves sufficient to meet periodic
emergencies brought on by crop failure, floods and other
disasters. But the needs of all countries for more food
to feed more people and to improve the level of diets has
resulted in such a demand for those reserves over the last
two years that they no longer exist--despite the fact that

We removed restrictions on our production and our farmers made an unprecedented effort to maximize their output.

It is neither prudent nor practical for other countries to leave this responsibility to a few. Those with a history or prospect of radical fluctuations in annual import requirements have an obligation--both to their own people and to the world community--to participate directly in a system which shares that responsibility more widely. And those, like the United States, which have the capacity to supply those requirements can no longer afford to be caught by surprise. The surplus producers must have the information needed to plan their production and exports.

To meet this problem effectively we believe a new system must be organized. We commend FAO Secretary General Boerma for his initiative in this area. The United States proposes the establishment of a Reserves Coordinating Group with a charter to negotiate the details of an international system of nationally held grain

-35-

reserves. It would include all the major exporters and
those whose import needs are likely to be greatest. We
propose that the group be formed now and meet at an early
date to negotiate a detailed agreement.

Such an agreement should include the following elements:

- A full exchange of information among participants on reserve and working stock levels, crop prospects and import-export intentions;

- Agreement on the size of global reserves required to protect the world community against famine and excessive price fluctuations;

-36-

-- Distribution of the responsibility for holding
reserves among the participating countries;

-- Guidelines on the management of national
reserves, in particular as to when it is appro-
priate to add to reserves and when to release
from them;

-- Preference in distribution of reserves for
participants, and measures to be taken in the
event that major countries who should participate
choose not to do so or that participants do not
conform to the agreed guidelines for purchase
and sale;

-- A committee of the participants to consult regularly
about the functioning of the scheme, including invo-
cation of measures for non-compliance, adjustments
of targets and settlement of disputes.

-37-

## Agenda for the Future

The challenge before this conference will be to translate rhetoric into action. It is easy to recite another set of principles or to set forth actions other nations should take. But the United States will promise only what it can produce, and we will make what we produce count.

I have set forth a program of action:

- To concert the best efforts of the major surplus countries to meet the global need;

- To build the developing nations' capacity to meet their growing need;

- To fill the gap between what developing nations can produce and what their people will require;

- To assure the quality of food required by all people to achieve their intellectual and physical potential;

- To free man's survival from dependence on the vagaries of weather.

(Insert Top Page 3)

Institutional Arrangements

Above all we must have mechanisms to show the global
nature and urgency of the problem and to provide impetus
for cooperative solutions. No single country, no single
group, no single international organization can meet man's
need for food by itself. We require a comprehensive
approach which specifies what each nation and group of nations
can contribute to the common good.

I have proposed four new international groups to
supplement and strengthen existing efforts.

-- The Export Production Planning Group,

-- The Coordinating Group on Food Production and
Investment in Developing Nations;

-- The Food Aid Coordinating Group,

-- The Reserves Coordinating Group.

We need to ensure that our attack on separate fronts
is carried out as part of an integrated strategy. A number
of proposals have been made for a central body to fuse our

-42-*

Nations have tended to view the world as a given -- the basic question was who would get the larger share. Today it is clear the world is not static -- we can all encourage and benefit from growth or all decline together.

Thus the ultimate challenge is not to our economic or
technical
political capacity but to our ability to perceive the world anew.
this /
The challenges of the next century can not be met with concepts
from the last. The idea of global community is no longer a
slogan but a
national
matter of desire but of necessity. Human needs, purposes and
man to a new task
international realities summon the leaders of the world to a new
to this capacity + this possibility.
era of greatness.
We cannot turn back or turn away

Let a renewed sense of our common destiny lead us to match

our challenges with our will and vision.

*Speech now actually about 38 pages, as many are half pages.

DEPARTMENT OF STATE

Washington, D.C. 20520

October 17, 1974

Mr. Secretary:

The attached draft of your World Food Conference speech has:

- an entirely new philosophic introduction based on the themes of the Al Smith speech and Reston interview;

- an initial effort to raise the prose to your level but more work will be required, especially in the middle section

- a general substantive clearance from Secretary Butz, who would however prefer that you stay on the high philosophic plain and leave to his speech the concrete programs. We believe this would be a mistake.

W/m

Win Lord and Mark Palmer

Beginning: The must be sense of global responsibility. Explaining that each nation must look at its special contribution from the overall benefit. A look at food, partly a global trend

10/17/74

WORLD FOOD CONFERENCE SPEECH

We meet to confront man's most fundamental need.

The fear of famine, the fact of hunger have haunted mankind
throughout history. Our presence here today is recognition
that unprecedented international cooperation will be required to
feed the world's growing population.

We meet at a time of profound change across the globe, of
stark danger and splendid opportunity. Our challenge here lies
far deeper than one area of human endeavor or one inter-
national conference. We are dealing not just with the problem
of food but with the gathering momentum of interdependence. And
our approach to the problem of food will help define the kind of
world we pass on to future generations.

For the world is delicately poised between old patterns and
new realities, between great creativity and great disarray,

-2-

between high hopes and huge despair -- a generation beyond the Second World War and a generation before a new century.

The past thirty years have been marked by rising expectations. Young nations reached confidently for development; technology held out the promise of growing prosperity for all countries; surpluses of fuel, food and raw materials were often considered burdens rather than a blessing. Though there was still too much misery and despair, there was general hope for progress. Though old habits of mind, political rivalries, economic conflicts persisted, they took place on the margins of a steady advance.

That time is gone. Even as we have shed first the tradition of colonial dependence and then the concept of two opposing blocs, a whole new set of realities, a more complex, fluid world has burst upon us. The next thirty years will test our wisdom as well as our aspirations, our vision as well as our striving.