[LC]

# The World in Perspective: Lessons of the 20th Century for the Next

Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen,

Professor Gasteyger and I have been working together in various conferences and panels for longer than either of us wants to admit. I have always benefited from Curt's views and admired his efforts. So, in spite of a long negotiation, it was always clear that I would give this lecture. I am therefore delighted to be here.

The title for my lecture is "The world in perspective: lessons of the 20th century for the next". I was, in other words, expected to review some of the evolution of international relations in the outgoing century and to draw some conclusions as to the lessons learned from it. That, however, would take me the better part of the evening. So let me instead make a brief summary of some of the changes taking place in the 20th century and then concentrate briefly on the present, especially on the challenge that America faces in this period.

I notice our Ambassador sitting in the front row, glowering at me, I therefore want to make it clear that I am speaking for myself, and that he speaks for the US Government. I often agree with our government and believe that foreign policy must be non-partisan. But if I should deviate from established orthodoxy, please remember that he represents it and that I am just an itinerant professor.

The 20th century has seen enormous conceptual changes in the conduct of foreign policy. It began with the conviction that war was unlikely since civilized nations would not fight with each other. There was at that time a global economy, in the sense that it involved all independent nations. Most thoughtful people did not believe the general prospects would be risked in a general conflagration. At the same time, an armaments race was going on because all the nations believed in the balance of power. Strangely enough, in light of what