MEMORANDUM

THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON

April 11, 1973

MEMORANDUM FOR: MR. KISSINGER

FROM: R. P. CAMPBELL [signature]

SUBJECT: Federal City Club Background
Friday, April 13, 1973

The Award is for distinguished public service and has been given each year for the last ten years.

Previous award recipients include Walter Lippmann (the first to receive the award), George Ball, Sargent Shriver, David Packard (last year).

The Officers of the Club are Charles Bartlett, President; Congressman James Symington, Vice President. Other officers include General Clifton (a former aide to President Kennedy) and Cord Meyer.

The Club was formed 19 years ago to provide a retreat from the all-white conservative Metropolitan Club. Membership does not discriminate on race, color, creed or sex.

The order of appearance will be: Mrs. Longworth first, to be recognized as the first woman member; followed by Senator John Sherman Cooper, then Pete Peterson, and finally, the award presentation to you.

You will be introduced by Charles Bartlett. The Toastmaster for the evening will be Congressman James Symington (Mo.).

Your remarks should run 10 to 15 minutes and be generally serious in nature, with a humorous introduction.

EYJ

I thank you for this high honor. When I consider the
distinguished winners of this award in past years, such as George
Ball and Sarge Shriver, I recognize that this is not only a proud
moment, but an experiment in what my Vietnamese associates
call conciliation and concord.

I recognize that this club is composed of mavericks -- a
maverick being somebody who postulates the theoretical fallibility
of this Administration.

This is why I came over tonight in an unmarked car.
And while I understand Ben Bradlee's reluctance to respect
ground rules such as background, I hope he will not carry things
to extremes tonight. You see, I didn't exactly lie to Bob Haldeman --
but he is under the impression that I was receiving the Annual
Award of the Metropolitan Club.

* * *

It is, of course, a great honor to be on the same dais with
Mrs. Longworth, who brings such charm and distinction to this
assembly. She is not only a great lady but, if I may say so, on
this occasion, she is a superb security blanket.

Which is more than I can say about Senator Cooper.

* * *

[Y]

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-2-

As to my former colleague and good friend, Secretary Peterson, I am delighted to join you in honoring him tonight. It is unfortunate that there was so much rumor and conjecture about why Pete left the Administration. I want to use this occasion to document the fact that Pete's departure was entirely voluntary. As you know, before joining Bell and Howell, he had a distinguished career as an advertising executive in Chicago. White House records indicate that no member of the Nixon Administration who had any connection with an advertising agency has ever been fired.

The answer is really very simple. When he heard that Bob Haldeman was moving into Georgetown he realized that the competition at cocktail parties would get too fierce. Therefore, he said, "this town is getting too small for both of us."

But I do not want to make a conventional speech. Many
of you have asked for full disclosure of government information
and some of you have disclosed that information on your own.
Therefore, the President has authorized me to read to you tonight
some memoranda about infiltration through Laos which have
recently occupied him. They will, if nothing else, illustrate the
loneliness of his office.

- 2 -

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY:

This memorandum is an initial response to the President's request for an analysis of the problem of North Vietnamese infiltration down the Ho Chi Minh Trail.

The reader should bear in mind about the parameters of this matrix that we have very little in the way of direct empirical evidence of what is getting through. We had our man there, hiding under a bush and counting the bicycles going by, but we had to pull him out because we needed an extra hand in Santiago.

Analysis

Basically we start with an input assessment reflecting a conceptual analytical model.

The average North Vietnamese is five feet tall and can carry 100 pounds on a bicycle. We don't know how many bicycles they have, but we know they have a population of 17 million and the average bicycle-per-capita figure for developing countries is 0.74. It is noteworthy that in their latest recruiting drive, the Hanoi leadership made an intensive effort to recruit cadre of more than five feet tall. Therefore, a substantial portion of their logistical force may now be as tall as five feet six inches. However, it is not appropriate to extrapolate directly from this that these cadre are capable of carrying a ten percent greater load. We flag this problem as introducing an element of uncertainty.