International Rescue Committee
122 East 42nd Street
New York, NY 10168-1289
Telephone: 212 551-3000
Fax: 212 551-3179
E-mail: irc@thelRC.org
www.thelRC.org

May 20, 2003

The Honorable George W. Bush
President of the United States of America
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
Washington, D.C. 20500

Dear Mr. President:

As members of the Board of Directors of the International Rescue Committee, we appreciate the warm support you have given to the cause of immigrants in general and refugees in particular, both before and after September 11. And so we write to you as an ally in the cause of refugees, a cause to which all of us donate our time, treasure and energy. We need your help.

Since September 11, the flow of refugees into the United States has been sharply curtailed. The reasons have been understandable: new security procedures had to be developed and implemented. But now that those procedures are in place, refugee admissions continue to be a fraction of their former level.

The problem is that insufficient resources are being devoted to the newly mandated security screening of refugees. They are being treated as just another category of immigrants, even though they deserve priority status because of who they are: victims of war, oppression or persecution, whether in Cuba, Iraq, Sudan or elsewhere.

The American openness to immigrants and especially refugees is unique, demonstrates American values and therefore contributes importantly to the American image. While we fully understand that there are countless other demands on the United States government's resources, we believe it would be regrettable to diminish the favorable impression our refugee policy has made in the world.

How can you help? We respectfully request that you direct the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Justice and the State Department to give priority to the admission of refugees, to coordinate their efforts and to devote adequate resources to this goal.

Refugees have made enormous contributions to the United States. Our country will benefit greatly if you can ensure that our nation continues to have a robust Refugee Admissions Program.

Thank you.

Sincerely,

Refugee Relief, Respect, Renewal

BOARD OF DIRECTORS

Winston Lord
James C. Strickler, MD
Co-Chairmen

Liv Ullmann
Vice Chairman, International

Alan Batkin
Jonathan Wiesner
Co-Chairmen, Executive Committee

John C. Whitehead
Chairman Emeritus
George Rupp
President and Chief Executive Officer

Robert P. DeVecchi
President Emeritus
Alan Batkin, Treasurer

George F. Hritz, Counsel
Charles Sternberg, Secretary
Nancy Starr, Assistant Secretary

Morton Abramowitz
Laurent Alpert
F. William Barnett
Georgette F. Bezoldt
Vera Blinken
Betsy Blumenthal
W. Michael Blumenthal
Nan Borton
Charles Boyd
Andrew H. Brimmer
Beverlee Bruce
Nestor Carbonell
Jeremy Carver
Robert M. Cotten
Robin Chandler Duke
Jodie Eastman
Katherine G. Farley
Sandra Feldman
H.R.H. The Princess Firyal of Jordan
Theodore J. Forstmann
Tom Gerety
Andrew S. Grove
Henry Grunwald
Morton I. Hamburg
Howard Jonas
Marvin Josephson
Alton Kastner
Irena Kirkland
Henry A. Kissinger
Tom Lantos
Theodore Li, MD
Vincent A. Mai
John Makinson
Robert E. Marks
David A. Martin
Lucretia Martin
Roberto Martinez
Roman Martinez IV
Kati Marton
Jay Mazur
W. Allen Moore
Kathleen Newland
Indra K. Nooyi
Robert B. Oakley
Sadako Ogata
Sarai O'Hagan
Lionel Olmer
Susan Patricof
David L. Phillips
David N. Pincus
Bruce C. Ratner
John Richardson
Felix Rohatyn
George S. Sarlo
Thomas Schick
Jay Schulberg
Jack Sheinkman
Jean Kennedy Smith
Dolores C. Smithies
H. Peter Stern
Louis W. Sullivan, MD
Lee Copley Thaw
John Train
Georgia Travers
William J. vanden Heuvel
Daniel Weiner, MD
Rhonda Weingarten
Edwin J. Wesely
Josh S. Weston
Maureen White
Elie Wiesel
Guy P. Wyser-Pratte

International Rescue Committee
122 East 42nd Street
New York, NY 10168-1289
Telephone: 212 551-3000
Fax: 212 551-3179
E-mail: irc@theIRC.org
www.theIRC.org

May 20, 2003

Dear Mr. President:

Thank you.

Sincerely,

BOARD OF DIRECTORS

Charles Sternberg, Secretary

F. William Barnett

Georgette F. Bennett
Vera Blinken

Betsy Blumenthal

Robert M. Cotten

Katherine Farley
Sandie Feilman

Henry A. Kissinger
Tom Lantos

Theodore Li, MD

Vincent A. Mai

John Makinson

Robert E. Marks

David A. Martin

Lucretia Martin

Roberto Martinez

Roman Martinez IV
Kati Marton

Jay Mazur

W. Allen Moore

Robert B. Oakley

Sadako Ogata

Sarah O'Hagan

Lionel Olmer

Susan Patricof

David L. Phillips

David N. Pincus

Bruce C. Ratner

John Richardson

Felix Rohatyn

George S. Sarlo

Thomas Schick

Jay Schulberg

Jack Sheinkman

H. Peter Stern

Louis W. Sullivan, MD

Lee Copley Thaw
John Train

Georgia Travers

William J. vanden Heuvel

Daniel Weiner, MD

Elie Wiesel

Guy P. Wyser-Pratte

INC
International
Negotiating
Consultant

NOV 06 2003

2700 Calvert Street, NW
Washington, DC 20008
Office & fax: 202 986 4752
Home: 202 234 1248

November 3, 2003

Honorable Henry A. Kissinger
Kissinger Associates Inc.
350 Park Avenue
New York City, NY 10022

Dear Mr. Secretary:

I was very pleased that you came to Fritz Kraemer's funeral. Also, that you gave such a fine eulogy. Do you have a copy of what you said that you could send to me?

I am enclosing a copy of an obituary I sent to the *Wall Street Journal*. Bob Bartley knew Fritz and thought *WSJ* might publish it. Unfortunately, they decided not to run it.

If you haven't read it, I think you will be interested in Bartley's op ed in today's *WSJ* on Tet. I had finished my tour in Vietnam before then but knew Generals Westmoreland and Abrams. Bartley's piece is consistent with what I have heard from Peter Braestrup and Bob Sorley.

I worked with Jerry Bremer and think very highly of him. He has a difficult job. My grandson returned from Iraq two weeks ago. He is in the 3rd Infantry Division and drove a tank into Baghdad. He said he would have just as soon stayed to see the job finished. However, his father and mother are glad to have him back.

Best wishes and warm regards,

Fritz Kraemer: Grand Strategist

Dr. Fritz G.A. Kraemer died on September 8, 2003 at the age of 95. I met Fritz more than 40 years ago when I was an assistant to General Twining, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The General asked me to draft a reply to a sensitive question put to him by the President. He told me to check it out with the Pentagon's grand strategist, Dr. Kraemer.

I located Dr. Kraemer in a small windowless room in the Pentagon. I had to weave my way through stacks of The New York Times and Neue Zuricher Zeitung. Since it was before the days of copying machines, Fritz bought three copies of each issue of the two papers. These he filed behind his desk in six file cabinets, which contained three cross-referenced copies of each clipping.

Dr. Kraemer read my draft and gave me several excellent suggestions. I was immensely impressed by his broad knowledge and understanding. Over the years I frequently went back to seek his advice.

In August of 1958, I was assigned as a student to the National War College and was pleased to find Fritz was selected to attend the College as a Pentagon civilian employee. Not surprisingly, Fritz was more often the teacher than student. The college offered a prize each year to the best term paper. The good news is that I won. The bad news is that I tied with Dr. Kraemer. Instead of having an hour to present the paper to the staff and faculty, Fritz and I were each allotted half the time. Fritz won the coin toss and went first. His half hour lasted 50 minutes, leaving me only 10 minutes. It made no difference, however, since his dynamic presentation, which he delivered in four

languages with John Barrymore histrionics, held the audience spellbound. My talk was
anti-climactic.

Getting to know Fritz, I learned that he earned certificates from Berlin's Arndt
Gymnasium, the London School of Economics and the University of Geneva. He was
subsequently awarded a doctorate in law from the University of Frankfurt and a doctorate
in political science from the University of Rome. During the 1930s, he served as a
senior legal adviser in international law to the League of Nations.

When Hitler came to power, Fritz left Germany and came to the United States in
1939. Four years later he entered the U.S. Army, and became an American citizen. To
my knowledge, he was the only enlisted man permitted to wear a monocle. Entering
combat with the 84th Infantry Division, in November 1944, he fought in the Battle of the
Bulge, and was awarded a Bronze Star Medal for single-handedly achieving the
surrender of a German city. He also received a battlefield commission. Displaying his
Prussian ancestry, Fritz carried a captured leather riding whip. He fought with his unit
until their meeting with the Russians at the Elbe.

During the 84th Division's march to the East, Kraemer's Division Commander
decided that Fritz should indoctrinate the Division on "why we fight." At the end of one
of his lectures a soldier told him his speech was highly inspiring. This young soldier was
Henry Kissinger, which whom he struck up a lasting friendship.

In May 1945, working through General Patton, he was able to rescue his Swedish
wife, and his English-born son, who had been seized by the Gestapo in 1939 and held in
Germany by the Nazi regime throughout the war. After VE Day, he remained in
Germany for two years, serving as an intelligence officer and helping analyze war crimes

2

documents in preparation for the Nuremberg trials. He brought along Kissinger as one of
his assistants. At the end of their stay in Germany, Kraemer convinced Kissinger that he
should study political science at Harvard. Kissinger had been reluctant to do so, saying
he preferred to follow his father's career as an accountant.

Returning to the United States, Dr. Kraemer was assigned to the Pentagon. He became editor of a series of handbooks designed to acquaint soldiers with the customs of various countries to which they would be assigned. In 1948, he resigned his commission as a Lieutenant Colonel and became a Department of the Army civilian and simultaneously a Reserve Officer. He so favorably impressed the Army Chief of Staff that he was given the permanent assignment of Advisor to the Chief of Staff of the Army. During the next three decades, he not only offered advice to the Army Chiefs but also to the Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Department Secretaries, and Secretaries of Defense. Away from the office he also offered advice to Dr. Kissinger when he became National Security Advisor and subsequently, Secretary of State. Fritz cultivated relationships with a large circle of foreign leaders. He impressed all with whom he came in contact with his encyclopedic knowledge and sound judgment. He often reinforced his statements with quotations from Sun Tzu, Thucydides, Clausewitz, Metternich, Bismarck, and Churchill.

Fritz helped me in my work as the chief strategic arms negotiator with the Soviets through his insights as to how totalitarian leaders think. He also introduced me to persons he considered to be leading strategists in their respective fields, such as the State Department's Seymour Weiss, and AFL-CIO's Jay Lovestone. Among his many admirers were Secretaries Haig, Rumsfeld, and Schlesinger, who kept in touch with him

3

Eulogy for Fritz Kraemer

By Henry A. Kissinger

October 8, 2003

Fritz Kraemer was the greatest single influence of my formative years, and his inspiration remained with me even during the last thirty years when he would not speak to me.

We met in 1944 in Camp Claiborne, Louisiana. We were both privates in the 84th Infantry Division. I served in G Company of the 335th Regiment, Kraemer in the G-2 section of division headquarters. We were both refugees from Germany, I by necessity, Kraemer by choice. He was thirty-six years of age; I nineteen. He had two Ph. D. degrees. I had two years of night college in accounting.

When I first saw Kraemer, he was dressed in a German uniform, wore a monocle, and carried a riding crop. The occasion was a speech to the regiment in which I was serving. The subject was the moral and political stakes of the war, and the Commanding General thought Kraemer's outfit would endow his presentation with verisimilitude. Kraemer spoke with passion, erudition, and overwhelming force, as if he were addressing each member of the regiment individually. For the first time in my life—and perhaps the only one—at least I can recall no other such occurrence—I wrote to a speaker how much he had moved me. A few days later Kraemer came to where my company was training. Now the uniform was American, but he still wore the monocle around his neck and continued to carry his riding crop. He invited me to have dinner with him at the enlisted men's club at which he questioned me about my views and spoke to me about his values.

Out of this encounter grew a relationship that changed my life. After the division reached Europe, Kraemer arranged to have me transferred to the G-2 section. We worked together and, after work, we walked the streets of battle scarred towns at night during total blackouts while Kraemer spoke of history and postwar challenges in his stentorian voice—sometimes in German, tempting nervous sentries. Over the next decades Kraemer shaped my reading and thinking, influenced my choice of college, awakened my interest in political philosophy and history, inspired both my undergraduate and graduate theses, and became an integral and indispensable part of my life. He was always there to discuss my concerns; he never talked of his own needs to me, and I doubt to anyone else, as if such an admission would derogate from his mission.

Kraemer dedicated his life to fighting against the triumph of the expedient over the principled. "Intellectuals," Kraemer once said, "have always preached that everything is relative and that there are no absolute values... The result is spiritual emptiness. Everything is possible and therefore nothing is." "The worst

2

thing about a loss of faith is not the fact that someone has stopped believing but
that they are ready to believe anything."

Kraemer fought his battle not so much by seeking to influence policymakers--
though on occasion he had that opportunity--but by giving lectures and above all
by discovering in young people qualities they did not always know they
possessed. He would then devote an enormous amount of his time on
encouraging them towards a life of duty and honor. He lived an ascetic, nearly
monastic existence. His learning matched his commitment. For decades he
spent much of his day clipping newspaper articles from all over the world,
marking significant passages, and filing them by major categories--a one-man,
handmade internet. He asked nothing for himself. He refused all promotions
beyond civil service grades.

Kraemer's values were absolute. Like the ancient prophets, he made no concessions to human frailty or to historic evolution; he treated intermediate solutions as derogation from principle.

And therein lay the source of our later estrangement. When I became part of the
world of policymaking, I entered the realm of the contingent. For the prophet,
there can be no gap between conception and implementation; the policymaker
must build the necessary from the possible. For the prophet, values are eternal,
independent of time. For the policymaker, absolute values must be approached
in stages, each of which is by definition imperfect. The prophet thinks in terms of
crusades; the policymaker hedges against the possibility of human fallibility. The
policymaker, if he wants to avoid stagnation, needs the prophet's inspiration, but
he cannot live by all the prophet's prescriptions in the short term; he must leave
something to history.

Kraemer could not accept this distinction. And so we did not speak for thirty
years. He felt he needed to make a demonstration--even a personal sacrifice--to
vindicate the absoluteness of his convictions. It was not personal. During the
decades of silence, he never spoke of me except with respect nor I of him with
anything but devotion.

As Kraemer enters the realm of eternity, and I approach it, I want to thank his
children, Sven and Madeleine, for allowing me this occasion of reconciliation with
an extraordinary man who will be part of my life as long as I draw breath.
Kraemer will remain to me, as to so many in this room whose lives he touched, a
symbol of commitment and dedication, a beacon that, amidst the turmoil of the
moment, guides us to the transcendental.

NOV 06 2003

November 3, 2003

Dear Mr. Secretary:

If you haven't read it, I think you will be interested in Bartley's op ed in today's *WSJ* on Tet. I had finished my tour in Vietnam before then but knew Generals Westmoreland and Abrams. Bartley's piece is consistent with what I have heard from Peter Braestup and Bob Sorley.

Best wishes and warm regards,

I located Dr. Kraemer in a small windowless room in the Pentagon. I had to weave my way through stacks of The New York Times and Neue Züricher Zeitung. Since it was before the days of copying machines, Fritz bought three copies of each issue of the two papers. These he filed behind his desk in six file cabinets, which contained three cross-referenced copies of each clipping.

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OpinionJournal - THINKING THINGS OVER

Page 1 of 2

WSJ
.com
# OpinionJournal

from THE WALL STREET JOURNAL *Editorial Page*

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## THINKING THINGS OVER

# Iraq: Another Vietnam?

The truth about the Tet offensive is that we won.

BY ROBERT L. BARTLEY

Monday, November 3, 2003 12:01 a.m.

Suddenly the historical debate over Vietnam is sprouting all through the current debate over Iraq. Howard Dean, leading the Democratic pack, told Dan Rather: "We sent troops to Vietnam, without understanding why we were there. And the American people weren't told the truth and it was a disaster. And Iraq is gonna become a disaster under this presidency."

With other would-be Democratic presidents joining this assault, it might be helpful to review what happened in Vietnam. Especially what happened at the Tet offensive, like the car bombings in Baghdad timed at the start of a religious holiday. In what sense should we fear that Iraq is "another Vietnam"?

Well, first of all, the Tet offensive was a militarily significant effort, not four truck bombs. After erosion of their position during 1967, the Communists threw all of their South Vietnam guerrilla forces into attacks in more than 100 cities across the length and breadth of the country. Most spectacularly, since it came before the eyes of the Saigon press corps, a 19-man sapper squad penetrated the U.S. Embassy compound. They failed to enter the chancery building, despite early reports, and the last of them was killed or repulsed after a six-hour battle.

General William Westmoreland appeared in the shattered compound to proclaim a great victory. His televised appearance came against a backdrop of destruction throughout the country, and the American elite decided to believe not the general but their own eyes. A widely cited Wall Street Journal editorial proclaimed that "the whole Vietnam effort may be doomed, it may be falling apart beneath our feet." Walter Cronkite turned against the war, editorializing on the need for negotiation. With this home-front reaction, Tet was the turning-point in the war, the anvil of Communist victory and American defeat.

Yet in fact, Westmoreland was right, subsequent analysts have uniformly concluded. The Communist offensive was decisively repulsed. There was no general uprising in favor of the North. The South Vietnamese army did not buckle, though operating at 50% strength because of imprudent holiday leaves. The indigenous Viet Cong were destroyed, leaving the rest of the war to be conducted by troops recruited in the North.

"To have portrayed such a setback for one side as a defeat for the other--in a major crisis abroad--cannot be counted as a triumph for American journalism," Peter Braestrup wrote in his book "Big Story." He was Washington Post Saigon bureau chief during Tet, and his critique didn't provoke serious controversy even within the press corps.

Tet was a military victory turned into a psychological defeat on the home front. Shall we do it again in Iraq?

http://www.opinionjournal.com/forms/printThis.html?id=110004251

11/17/2003

Page 2 of 2

Tet represents another, less widely understood, turning point in the Vietnam War. Soon after the offensive, Gen. Westmoreland was replaced as the U.S. commander by Creighton W. Abrams, with a notable change in U.S. strategy and tactics. The contrast of the two eras is pregnant with lessons for the far smaller guerrilla war in Iraq.

"More troops" was Gen. Westmoreland's first request from Vietnam, and also his last one. He sought to take the battle to the enemy, with "search and destroy" missions intended to find the major enemy units hiding in the jungle hills. It was a war of attrition, using superior U.S. firepower to destroy the enemy's forces faster than he could replace them. But the scale of the Tet assaults was scarcely encouraging.

Under Gen. Abrams, "search and destroy" was replaced by "clear and hold." This is recorded in "A Better War," by Lewis Sorley, who notes that most of the histories of Vietnam pretty much skip the post-1968 period. Abrams put emphasis not on attrition but on the security of the local population, and the training of the South Vietnamese who would continue the fighting as Americans left.

The success of these programs was tested by the Easter Offensive of 1972. Some 200,000 North Vietnamese troops attacked on three fronts. U.S. ground troop withdrawals continued as scheduled, but President Nixon ordered heavy air and naval retaliation, including the mining of North Vietnamese ports. With this air support, the South Vietnamese army repelled the invasion. The North Vietnamese lost half of their attacking force and half of their tanks and artillery. The legendary Vo Nguyen Giap was quietly removed from command of the Northern armies.

Three years later the North had recovered sufficient strength to repeat the offensive. But by then the Paris peace accords had been signed, with U.S. prisoners returned at the cost of allowing Hanoi to infiltrate military units in the south. With Watergate, Congress had passed the Case-Church Amendment forbidding military involvement in Southeast Asia. Sen. Edward Kennedy passed a $266 million cut in supplemental spending for Vietnam, and funds were slashed for the coming year. Counter-insurgency expert Sir Robert Thompson remarked, "perhaps the major lesson of the Vietnam War is: do not rely on the United States as an ally."

This time the South Vietnamese got no assistance from the U.S. and fell before an assault by 20 tank-led divisions. Some million refugees took to the seas as "the boat people." After the loss of Iran and some trying times in Europe, the U.S. elected Ronald Reagan, who revived the American military and faced the Communists down at Reykjavik. The Communist empire fell after all, and Vietnam goes down as a lost battle in a successful campaign.

Yet something more than a lost battle, a self-inflicted wound arising from an essentially dishonorable strain of American neurosis. Yes, by all means, don't do it again in Iraq. As Gov. Dean says, the first step is to tell the truth, starting with the truth of what happened in Vietnam.
*Mr. Bartley is editor emeritus of The Wall Street Journal. His column appears Mondays in the Journal and on OpinionJournal.com.*

Copyright © 2003 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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11/17/2003

KISSINGER ASSOCIATES, INC.

MAR 28 2003

MEMO

**TO:** Dr. Kissinger
**FROM:** Stape Roy SR
**DATE:** March 28, 2003
**SUBJECT:** China's New Foreign Policy Structure

Here's what I'm hearing from inside PRC sources.

Hu Jintao replaced Jiang Zemin as head of the Foreign Affairs Leading Group, with Zeng Qinghong as the deputy. Zeng will have major foreign policy responsibilities, essentially being in charge of day to day foreign policy matters. Tang Jiaxuan, as State Councillor, reports directly to Zeng, but can in special cases go directly to Hu (but he lacks the personal tie to Hu that Qian Qichen had with Jiang Zemin). Vice Premier Wu Yi has technical responsibility for Foreign Affairs among the Vice Premiers, but this is largely in name only. Tang will keep her informed, but the substantive line runs to Zeng Qinghong.

How this will work is anyone's guess. Jiang took a personal interest in foreign affairs and was uncontestedly in charge once Li Peng moved from the premiership to the NPC. Prior to that there was some rivalry between them. Zhu Rongji did not assert a strong role in foreign affairs, and Wen Jiabao is likely to continue that tradition. Tang is a less strong player than Qian Qichen, so Zeng Qinghong's role will be enhanced, and possibly that of Li Zhaoxing. The question on Li is whether he stays for three or five years as foreign minister. He hits the 65 age barrier in a couple of years, as do a number of other ministers, so the issue will arise. This is being debated internally but is not resolved, and probably won't be for a while. Hu will be involved in foreign policy, but not to the extent of Jiang Zemin. This is by personal preference since he has strong domestic interests to pursue. Accordingly, the dynamics of the foreign policy team will be different, and much will depend on how relationships evolve.

Qian Qichen will not formally take over Wang Daohan's role because there are no cross-strait talks to warrant the attention of a person with Qian's stature. He will still be influential in an advisory role on foreign policy matters. Should the cross-strait channel open up, Qian might formally take on the coordinating role.

Among the Vice Premiers, Hui Liangyu will be in charge of rural matters, defined as the "san nong," i.e. nongye, nongmin, nongcun (agriculture, peasants, and rural area). His responsibilities are considerably broader than narrowly agriculture. There is still a sense that an Agriculture Commission may be necessary. That idea is not dead.

The trade function restructuring represents a move from a Japanese to an American model. Zhu Rongji promoted the formation of the State Economic and Trade Commission on the MITI model. By eliminating the State Economic and Trade Commission and creating the new Ministry

RSA

The Royal Society for the encouragement of
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Founded in 1754

From the Director Penny Egan

The Honorable Henry Kissinger
Kissinger Associates
Suite 1021
1800 K Street NW
Washington DC 20006
USA

24th June 2003

I am sorry that you were not able to join us at our Reception in Washington. I am pleased however to let you know that it was very successful. It provided an excellent opportunity to strengthen our already close relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom, especially as we approach the celebration of our 250th Anniversary in 2004.

We would therefore like to invite you to become a Fellow of the Society and I enclose an application form. If you do not know any Fellows who might second your nomination then please fill in the form anyway and send it back as we should be able to find someone who is able to do this for you. As a Fellow you will be able to take part in our celebratory events planned for next year and in our lecture program and you will receive our Journal which covers a wide range of intellectual interests. You would also have access to our Georgian building in London with its restaurant, bar and library.

Based on the original 18th Century mission of our founder, William Shipley, we have established five Manifesto Challenges on which to focus in the next few years: encouraging enterprise, moving to zero-waste, fostering resilient communities, developing a capable population and advancing global citizenship. I am sure that you will find at least one of these of great interest and that you will then be able to contribute to it and to meet other people with a similar involvement. We would also welcome your support in kind by suggesting speakers and suitable venues for our activities.

I am enclosing an example of our current UK lecture program so that you can see the extent of our interests. I very much hope that you will want to become part of our great Society.

JUN 30 2003

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RSA

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Lecture Programme April – June 2003

April

Bookings open on Mon 3 March 2003

Full information on RSA lectures in
London and around the country are
listed online www.theRSA.org/events.

To reserve seats book online
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Most lectures are free (except where stated), but advance booking is necessary. Donations for guest tickets are welcome for all lectures (suggested contribution: £5)

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Wed 2 April at 6pm
Amateurs as experts:
harnessing new knowledge
networks for biodiversity

With Dr Johannes Vogel,
Natural History Museum
and Prof Robin Grove-White,
IEPP, University of Lancaster.
Venue: RSA London

Wed 2 April 6.30pm

Women at war

Kate Adie, Joanne Bourke and Julie Wheelwright, writers and broadcasters. Chaired by Greg Neale, Editor, BBC History Magazine. With the Imperial War Museum North and BBC History Magazine. To book write to: BBC History Magazine, Room A1050, Woodlands, 80 Wood Lane, London W12 0TT Cost: £10 (cheques to BBC History Magazine) Venue: Imperial War Museum North Manchester

Tues 8 April at 6pm
Communication in a
virtual age: is technology
dehumanising the workplace?

A panel discussion in conjunction
with Sony
Venue: RSA London

Tues 8 April 6.30pm
How far can you go?

Stuart Cosgrove, Head of Programmes, Channel 4. Chaired by Jonnie Turpie, Maverick TV. Joint lecture with Institute of Public Relations. To book contact: vivienne.long-ferguson@rsa.org.uk Cost: £10 (cheques to IPR Midlands) Venue: Austin Court, Birmingham

Thurs 10 April at 6pm
A panel discussion in
conjunction with inlVA

(Institute of International Visual Arts)
Venue: RSA London

Tues 29 April at 6pm

The truth about markets

Prof John Kay, economist and author
Venue: RSA London

Wed 30 April at 6pm

The end of global laissez-faire?

Richard Kozul-Wright, Globalisation and Development Strategies Division, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Venue: RSA London

May

Wed 7 May at 6pm
Prince Philip lecture

Venue: RSA London

Thurs 8 May at 6.30pm

tx10 in association with The Economist

Defusing the demographic
timebomb. The challenge of
longer life: economic burden
or social opportunity?

Venue: RSA London

Wed 14 May at 6pm
College of Teachers lecture

Sir Trevor McDonald. Chaired
by Prof John Turner, President,
College of Teachers

Venue: RSA London

Tues 20 May at 6pm

Annual Chartered
Management Institute Lecture

The business of science

Sir Richard Sykes DSc FRS, Rector,
Imperial College. Chaired by
Mary Chapman, Chief Executive,
Chartered Management Institute

Venue: RSA London

Wed 21 May at 6pm
Thomas Gray Memorial Lecture

Warfare in the 21st century

Prof Alastair Couper, Dpt of Maritime
Studies, University of Cardiff. Chaired
by Prof Sarah Palmer, Director,
Greenwich Maritime Institute.

Venue: RSA London

Wed 21 May at 6.30pm

Museums & Galleries Month Lecture

Education, education, education:
can museums and galleries
meet the educational agenda?

Chaired by Loyd Grossman,
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Venue: Liverpool Tate

Thurs 22 May at 6.30pm
Healthy ageing

A panel discussion organised
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Corporate Partners. To book contact:
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Tel 020 7451 6887

Venue: Pfizer Ltd, Walton Oaks, Surrey

Tues 27 May at 6pm
1st Bossom lecture

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Wed 28 May at 6pm

RSA/RSM Lecture

The right to die

With Margaret Branthwaite, retired
barrister and former consultant,
Royal Brompton Hospital; Prof
Raanon Gillon, Emeritus Professor
of Medical Ethics, Imperial College
and Dr Keith Andrews MD FRCP,
Royal Hospital for Neuro-disability
Venue: RSA, London

June

Mon 2 June at 6pm

2nd Bossom Lecture

Landscapers:
building with the land

Aaron Betsky, Director,
Netherlands Architecture Institute

Venue: RIBA 66 Portland Place
London W1

Thurs 5 June at 6pm

Campaign for Learning Debate

Will we need this for
the test? The role of
assessment in learning

Chaired by Sir Michael Bichard,
Rector, The London Institute

Sponsored by NferNelson

Venue: RSA London

Sun 8 June at 12 noon

Cheltenham Festival of Science
Prevention or cure? A debate
on the future of healthcare

Ray Tallis, Professor of Geriatric
Medicine, Hope Hospital, Manchester;
Malcolm Law, Professor of
Preventative Medicine, Wolfson
Institute, St Bartholomew's Hospital
and Gill Samuels, Senior Director,
Science Policy and Science
Affairs Europe, Pfizer Ltd.
To book ring: 01242 227979

Venue: Cheltenham Town Hall

Tues 10 June at 6.30pm

Pop music and technology

Venue: Liverpool Institute
of Performing Arts

Wed 11 June at 6pm

Scientists as professionals

Venue: RSA London

Thurs 19 June at 6.30pm

Architecture Week Lecture

Bullring vision

with Birmingham Alliance
Venue: The Rotunda, Birmingham

Tues 24 June at 6.30pm

Sir Nicholas Scheele

Ford Motor Company

Venue: Council House, Birmingham

To be arranged

w/c 28 April

Midnight's Children

A pre-production discussion
in association with the RSC

Venue: The Birmingham Rep

Jerusalem Issue Brief

Page 1 of 4

MAR 2 5 2003

Jessee Incao

From: brief4-owner@jcpa.org on behalf of jcenter [jcenter@jcpa.org]

Sent: Tuesday, March 25, 2003 5:37 AM

To: brief4@jcpa.org

Subject: Beyond Iraq: Missile Proliferation in the Middle East - Uzi Rubin - Vol. 2, No. 22

# Jerusalem Issue Brief

Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs

Institute for Contemporary Affairs
founded jointly with the Wechsler Family Foundation

Vol. 2, No. 22–25 March 2003

## Beyond Iraq: Missile Proliferation in the Middle East

Uzi Rubin

* Beyond the Iraqi missile threat to Israel in the 1990s, missile threats to Israel have emerged from Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Libya. Yet many of the New Middle East missile powers are determined to project their power toward Europe.

* Missile suppliers in the Middle East include North Korea, China, and Russian and Indian companies. Suppliers have found ways of evading the Missile Technology Control Regime!!

* Iran's 2,000 km range Shihab-4 will reach targets beyond Israel. Iran's missile program is a matter of national pride that will be unaffected by regime change. The Iranians are determined to develop missiles of even longer range.

* In about ten years, Libya will have 50-100 missiles that can threaten Israel.

## Who are the Suppliers?

Who are the suppliers of missiles in the Middle East?

North Korea continues to view the selling of missiles as an export commodity. Missiles are their only dollar-earning export item.

Russian companies – not the Russian government – continue to support Iran with missile technology. Although the Russian government tries to curb this trade, the proliferation goes on.

China continues to sell missile technology. China is not a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), but says it adheres to it. Chinese policy is not to sell complete missile systems, but some technologies sold by China are also considered MTCR-sensitive. The Chinese allow themselves more leeway in the export of what is called "banned technology" in the West. China lately issued its own missile export laws which are

3/25/2003

Jerusalem Issue Brief

Page 2 of 4

somewhat different from the MTCR.

Indian companies – not the Indian government – exported missile-related technology to Iraq and, currently, the Pakistanis are also becoming active in proliferation to the Middle East.

## Who are the Users?

Who are the users? Iran is continuing to develop the 1,200 km-range Shihab-3 missile, which is adapted from the North Korean Nodong. Iran says it is operational, and there have been tests from time to time, sometimes successful and sometimes not. Less known is the fact that the Iranians continue firing the Shihab-1 into Iraq from time to time.

The Shihab-4, 2,000 km-range missile program was unveiled in a recent interview by Gen. Ahmed Wahid, head of the Iranian missile program. At the time he made three important statements:

1. The Shihab program is aimed to balance the alleged Israeli Jericho missile threat.

2. Iran will continue to develop missiles of longer ranges.

3. Iran is going into space. This may sound innocent, but it is important to understand that any space launcher is a potential intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could reach anywhere on earth.

Another ominous development is the deployment of missiles in Lebanon. These are not Category 1- weapons of mass destruction missiles, but Category 2 missiles of shorter range, deployed by Iran in southern Lebanon.

Iraq is developing a 150 km-range missile that has all the current technologies of long-range ballistic missiles. We now know of at least six instances when these missiles reached over 150 km "by mistake."

Syria has the largest stockpile of ballistic missiles in the region today; in fact, Syria is investing most of its military budget in its missile arsenal at the expense of its air force and its ground forces. Syria has established production lines and is producing the Scud C, a 550 km-range missile.

The Syrians have also acquired a 700 km-range missile that we call the Scud D. When Syria fired such a missile two years ago, Israel was able to observe the enemy missile launch for the first time with its own Green Pine radar, part of the Arrow system. The Syrians have also improved their Scud B warheads and have tested them. Israel tracked a test of an improved warhead for the Scud B, probably with chemical agents.

Egypt is very quiet. It has a small arsenal of Scud B and Scud C missiles. Lately, however, there have been reports in the media of Egyptians buying – or trying to buy – Nodong technology from North Korea.

Libya is very active now in acquiring long-range missiles and weapons of mass destruction. Apparently, Libya is buying Nodong missiles from North Korea with a range of 1,200-1,300 km, which can strike Israel.

There are also signs of secondary proliferation: Iran is now an exporter. This is very natural once a nation has established an industrial infrastructure. The Iranians are reported to be trying to sell missiles to African countries. They are selling technologies and missile components to Syria, and they are deploying missiles in Lebanon.

## The Threat of Long-Range Missiles

3/25/2003

Jerusalem Issue Brief

Page 3 of 4

In the future we will see a trend toward longer-range missiles, driven by a number of motivations:

1. Projecting power toward Israel.

2. Projecting power toward Europe. A hypothetical Iranian Shihab-4 missile with a 2,000 km range could reach parts of Eastern Europe. The motivation of power projection becomes obvious since Iran does not need a missile with such a range in order to reach Israel.

3. Fear of Israel's preemptive capabilities.

Libya cannot hit Israel now; they only have Scud-B missiles with a 300 km range. The Egyptians have the Scud-C and can hit Israel from south of the Nile Delta. The Syrians can hit Israel from mid-Syria with the Scud-C. The Iranians have a 1,300 km missile that can reach Israel from western Iran.

Everyone is buying longer-range missiles. The Syrians went for the Scud D, the Libyans and Egyptians opted for the Nodong, and the Iranians went for the 2,000 km Shihab-4. There is a clear trend toward extending the ranges of missiles so that they can be deployed beyond Israel's preemptive range.

Russian aid to Iran might decrease because the Russian government is attempting to reduce this trade, but Iran could be compensated by North Korea. Now North Korea is going into the nuclear business and might start selling nuclear weapons.

Iran has passed the point of no return. The Iranians cannot be stopped anymore. They have their indigenous capability now and they will continue with their programs regardless of what the international community thinks. Iran will continue to develop missiles because their missile industry has nothing to do with the degree of radicalism of the regime. For Iran it is a matter of pride. Iran's missile program has become a national program that will be unaffected by any regime change.

## Order of Battle

Syria has the largest stockpile, with about 500 missiles altogether, including Scud-B (300 km) and Scud-C (550 km). The SS-21 missile is a very accurate, Russian-made, solid propellant, battlefield weapon with a range of about 100 km. In Israeli terms this is a strategic weapon because, if deployed north of the Golan Heights, it can hit most of northern Israel.

Iraq will remain a big question mark, even if Saddam falls. Iraq has the infrastructure and the experts who know how to make missiles. They may now have a stockpile of perhaps fifty missiles, but in the future, Iraq could produce hundreds of missiles and not just because they have Israel in mind. Iran remains Iraq's historical enemy – these two enemies have been fighting each other in the Mesopotamian Valley for the past three thousand years under different names, such as the Persians and the Babylonians.

## Launch Capability the Key Measure

The number of missiles stockpiled is not the key measure of enemy threat. Rather, it is the number the enemy can actually fire in war. In 1988, in what was known as the war of the cities, the Iraqis fired about 190 missiles into four Iranian cities – Teheran, Shiraz, Qom, and Isfehan – over four months. In the Gulf War, Iraq managed to fire about 80 missiles in four weeks. Thus, actual firepower is defined not by the number of missiles but by launch capability, which depends on a whole supply structure including launchers and manpower.

3/25/2003

AUG 19 2003

RUDD

Oakville
Napa Valley
CALIFORNIA

August 2003

Dear Friends,

The famous quote "Patience is a virtue" could not be more true than when applied to the wine business. After more than seven years of less than patient anticipation I am very pleased to announce the inaugural release of our Oakville Estate proprietary red wine. The Rudd 2000 Oakville Estate was made from the vineyards we re-planted right after I purchased this benchland property along the eastern foothills of the Vaca Mountains in October 1996.

Before we re-planted our estate vineyards we did an extensive analysis of the soils, drainage and sun exposure, and as a result we divided the 45 plantable acres into 18 distinct blocks. Each block was then designated to be planted with the most appropriate varietal (Cabernet Sauvignon, Cabernet Franc, Merlot, Petit Verdot or Malbec) on the most advantageous rootstock. Once the varietal and rootstock for each block were decided, the specific clone of each varietal was then selected for optimum results. High density planting was chosen to encourage competition among the vine roots, resulting in smaller vines that mature faster than with traditional spacing and produce lower quantities of highly concentrated fruit.

But before I tell you more about our inaugural release I'd like to bring you up to date on other happenings here at the winery. As those of you who have visited us recently have seen, there is currently a great deal of activity here on the estate. We are just days away from the completion of our winery addition, which will house a new enology lab and production tasting room, additional tank space for fermentation and bottling, offices for our production crew as well as our sales, marketing and administrative staff and adequate storage for all the needs of a functioning winery.

We are also just finishing the tiling of the fermentation cellar walls and floors, which in conjunction with our "gentleness project" will complete an optimally gentle, but also efficient and handsome red wine fermentation facility. Our winemaker and his team have devised a system, based on 100 year-old designs from Bordeaux and Burgundy, that uses a hopper on a track to deliver our handsorted grapes to the tanks by gravity. They are also installing a JLB 12 basket press for ideal pressing of the young red wine. This is yet another example of our constant effort to improve our winemaking techniques, ultimately to be reflected in the wines we produce.

500 OAKVILLE CROSSROAD
POST OFFICE BOX 105

OAKVILLE, NAPA VALLEY
CALIFORNIA 94562

707-944-8577
FAX 707-944-8173

RUDD NEWSLETTER

AUGUST 2003

PAGE TWO

In addition to these construction projects, we are also in the process of planting a ten-acre parcel we recently acquired directly across from us on Oakville Crossroad. These vineyards are being planted to Cabernet Sauvignon using 4' x 3.5' spacing, an even higher vine density than our existing 4' x 4' vineyards. The fruit from these vines will eventually become part of our Oakville Estate red wine program.

Beginning with the 2001 vintage, we will produce two red wines from our Oakville vineyards. The first will be a blend of any or all of the five red Bordeaux varietals, based on our winemaker's selection for that vintage. We will also make an Oakville "Estate Grown" Cabernet Sauvignon each year. The 2001 Oakville Estate Cabernet will be released each spring followed by the fall release of our Oakville Estate proprietary red. We are continuing our Sauvignon Blanc program, releasing that wine with the Cabernet Sauvignon in the spring and the Bacigalupi Vineyard Chardonnay from the Russian River Valley will accompany the fall release of the Oakville Estate red.

Our first estate release, the 2000 Oakville Estate proprietary red is very representative of what you would expect this rocky, volcanic soil to produce. Here's what Robert Parker had to say when he tasted it in May 2002,

"The Oakville Estate Proprietary Red, primarily Cabernet Sauvignon, is a powerful example reminiscent of Harlan Estate's Cabernet. It boasts a saturated purple color along with gorgeous aromatics of black fruits, licorice, and coffee. Dense and supple, with sweet tannin and a long finish, it should drink well for 12-15 years. (92-94, The Wine Advocate, 8-31-02)

For more information about all our wines as well as more detail regarding our vineyards and winery, please visit our new website at www.ruddwines.com.

And to those of you who haven't yet had the opportunity to come see us here at the winery, I hope that you will make the time to visit us on your next trip to the Napa Valley. Our tours and tastings are by appointment, so please contact our Hospitality Department at 707-944-8577, ext 113 to schedule your visit.

As always, I thank you for your support of our new brand and I hope you will enjoy our wines in good health with family and friends.

Sincerely,

Leslie Rudd

RUDD

2000 RUDD OAKVILLE ESTATE PROPRIETARY RED

The 2000 Rudd Oakville Estate is the first vintage from our newly replanted vineyard at the corner of Oakville Crossroad and Silverado Trail. Our vineyard is planted on rocky, red volcanic soils at the foot of the Vaca Mountains. We planted the vineyard to 4' x 4' spacing using low vigor rootstock to encourage the vines to produce smaller, highly concentrated fruit. The 2000 was made primarily from Clone 337 Cabernet Sauvignon, a highly regarded Bordeaux clone that successfully expresses this unique*Oakville terroir*.

Harvest 2000 followed ideally mild summer temperatures, allowing for extended hang time that produced mature tannins in all three varietals. As a result, the wine exhibits powerful ripe tannins balanced by a seamless mid-palate, concentrated dark fruit flavors and complex aromatics. After eighteen months of barrel aging, the wine was bottled without fining or filtration in June 2002.

BLEND 86% Cabernet Sauvignon, 9% Cabernet Franc and 5% Petit Verdot

APPELLATION Oakville

FERMENTATION Native yeast and natural malolactic

AGING 18 months in French oak, 50% new

CASES PRODUCED 1200

RELEASE DATE Fall 2003

SUGGESTED RETAIL PRICE $100

KIMBERLY A. RUFF-WILBERT

PERSONAL STATEMENT

I am interested in pursuing a position as a policy analyst with a public policy research or think tank organization. I believe that objective, independent and concrete analyses are a prerequisite to efficient and effective formulation and communication of ideas into policy.

In May 2003, I earned my Master of Public Administration from New York University's Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service with a specialization in public policy analysis. I have extensive academic training in both quantitative and qualitative analytics with rigorous coursework in economics, public finance, statistical data analysis and program/policy analysis and evaluation.

My academic background in public policy analysis combined with my strong analytical, writing, research and communication skills make me an ideal candidate for a policy analyst position.
Highlights of my skills and experience include:

* **Data analysis and modeling** I am proficient in data analysis and modeling using inferential statistics, multiple and logistical regression and in translating numbers into words and documenting findings clearly and concisely. I am also proficient in the statistical software SPSS.

* **Research and data collection** I recently completed a yearlong original research project requiring extensive data collection, analysis, qualitative research and evaluation.

* **Qualitative Research and Analysis** I have strong qualitative research and analytical skills further developed through researching and composing detailed memos, leading briefings and tracking legislation at both the Federal and state levels. As a research assistant, I also researched and analyzed a number of an international organization's technical assistance programs for effectiveness in institutional transition.

* **Database Management** As a membership and development assistant, I managed a database of more than 1.2 million donors.

* **Interpersonal skills** I have strong interpersonal skills and am confident in personal interactions. As an intern on Capitol Hill, I served as a constituent correspondent where I interacted with constituents and legislative advocates on a daily basis.

* **Computers** In addition to SSPS statistical software, I am proficient in Microsoft Word, Excel and PowerPoint.

* **Personal Characteristics** I am an energetic and reliable worker who is a team contributor and thrives in a busy, priority-shifting environment. I enjoy seeking solutions to complex problems.

KIMBERLY A. RUFF-WILBERT

11707 Leona Street, Silver Spring, MD 20902
Tel: (301) 962-1877 E-Mail: kruffwil@hotmail.com

Education:

NEW YORK UNIVERSITY New York, NY
Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service

Master of Public Administration; May 2003

Specialization: Public Policy Analysis

* Relevant Coursework: Financial Management, Microeconomics, Statistics, Multiple Regression Analysis, Public Economics and Finance, Financing Urban Government, Urban Economics, Debt Financing, Estimating Impacts of Policy Research, Program Analysis and Evaluation

BATES COLLEGE Lewiston, ME
Bachelor of Arts; May 1999
Major: Political Science, Minor: German

FRANKLIN COLLEGE SWITZERLAND Lugano, Switzerland
Study Abroad, August 1995 - May 1996

Experience:

June 2002 - May 2003
**INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION** New York, NY
**Research Assistant**

* Researching various international organization's technical assistance programs and their performance measurement indicators

* Analyzing and evaluating technical programs for effectiveness in institutional transitions

* Editing, researching and assisting author of book in addressing democracies in transition

* Organizing notes and chapters among book contributors

Nov. 2000 - May 2001
**U.S. ENGLISH, INC.** Washington, DC
**Membership & Development Assistant**

* Analyzed development department finances for tracking within a non-profit lobbying organization

* Managed database of 1.2 million donors

* Researched and developed new fundraising techniques

* Organized and responded to member correspondence

Dec. 1999 - Nov. 2000
**BURNS & ROE, INC.** Washington, DC
**Executive Assistant and Office Manager**

* Responsible for the office budgetary information of an engineering company's government affairs department; included expense reports, accounts payable, requisitions, and working fund

* Assisted with Political Action Committee recommendations and contributions

* Drafted all correspondence from Vice-Chairman

* Scheduled and organized all business meetings, social events, appointments and conferences

Summer 1999
**UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES** Washington, DC
**Intern, U.S. Representative Karen McCarthy**

* Composed comprehensive memos detailing Commerce Committee hearings for distribution

* Attended hearings; produced communication briefings via memos and presentations

* Collected and reviewed legislative research

* Researched and drafted responses to constituent mail

Summer 1998
**WOMEN EMPLOYED** Chicago, IL
**Intern, Public Policy Department**

* Researched and reported on welfare, affirmative action, childcare and education policies for women's advocacy organization

* Compiled and analyzed raw statistical data for a foundation grant proposal

* Designed and researched a legislative booklet detailing candidates' platforms for 1998 Elections

* Organized and participated in bi-annual meeting of adult education supporters

Summer 1997
**CARPENTER-BOWRING UK LTD.** London, England
**Intern**

* Rotated through Brokerage, Accounting and Claims Departments to learn fundamentals

* "Sat on box" at Lloyd's of London

**COMPUTERS:** Microsoft Word, Excel, Power Point, Statistical Software SPSS, and strong database management skills