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> "Ideally, leaders must operate at the outer limits of what their groups can tolerate—and keep them there, which is tough."
> 
> Dr. Henry Kissinger

POLICING POLICY

**Kissinger:** When I look at statesmen—or at successful business executives—the ones that prevail are the ones that have some vision of where they want to go. To operate the status quo is, first, boring, and second, means that sooner or later you are going to be engulfed by circumstances. If you do too much systems analysis, you learn all the complexities and none of the direction. Of course, systems analysis is essential. And that is a huge problem for our country in the field of foreign policy.

Traditionally, the basic approach of American foreign policy was that we would stay aloof until a great danger came, and then overwhelm it with resources. At the end of World War II, we had 50 percent of the world's GNP. We had an atomic monopoly, and we were lucky in the sense that we had an enemy. So this basic approach could be applied. We didn't need to conduct foreign policy; we simply had to identify problems and then allocate resources to them—and we did that extremely well. That period is now over. We now live in a new world.

never known before. Europe has had to adapt a nation-state into a European Union. China is entering a global system again for the first time and will become the dominant nation of Asia. And Japan, seeing that happening, is driven into greater and greater nationalism. And here is the U.S., without a tradition of international politics.

The challenge we have in foreign policy is this: In the Cold War, our danger was defeat. In the post-Cold War period, our danger is irrelevance. More and more decisions are being taken in the world because we can't effect them, because we marginalize ourselves or become marginalized. Which means that, over a period of time, more decisions are being taken without reference to what we consider our interests. If we suffer, it will not be in a catastrophic way, but in a gradual decline of our relative position. A political leader will have to understand this—and to put together some kind of coherent framework. Because we have huge assets, it absolutely does not have to be that way if we can identify our assets and bring them to bear on the problems.

whole, he would get support. Instead he's putting on Band-Aids. For example, anybody who knows anything about Yugoslavia knows that it is not possible for Croats, Serbs, and Muslims to live in the same grouping. That's why Yugoslavia broke up. So to announce that we are for a united Bosnia, but we are keeping our army there to keep them, from fighting is ridiculous! They have to be separated or we will be there forever.

The idea that the U.S. has a moral mission in the world that is defined by our intervention in every country in the world is still a dominant view in American foreign policy. But we do not have a duty to bring peace everywhere. With limited resources we should bring it where it affects American interests and values, or the interests of close allies.

**George Shaheen (Andersen Consulting):** In positioning the U.S. to move forward on a worldwide basis, how would you advise the administration to go about formulating a cohesive foreign policy?

**Kissinger:** My advice to the president would be, "Get together some of the brightest people you can find and put

From left to right: CE's Arnold Pollard, Duke Power's William Grigg, USLIFE's Gordon Crosby, HIP Health Plan's Victoria Wicks, John Foster of NovaCare.

We lack concepts. We have no precise view of where we are going. And therefore, we have a very fitful foreign policy.

And this occurs at a moment when all the parameters of foreign policy are changing. Russia is within borders it has

What I would like to see is a United States president who assumes the educational function of the presidency. The American public is one of the healthiest in the world, and if their president said, "Here are the problems," I think, on the

them to work." When I took over the State Department, I took eight or 10 of the best people I could find and set them to work on middle-term problems. I did not permit any discussion of incoming cables. I wanted to know, "Where are we

CHIEF EXECUTIVE 35 JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1997