Semi-official *Davar* of Tel Aviv declared:

> "Soviet friendly feelings conveyed to the Lebanese President will not help Lebanon much... The Government of Lebanon now knows the alternatives: either remove the terrorists from its land or continue to stand by and see how Israel does it for her."

Commenting on television on Saturday, Chief of Staff David Elazar summed up the border operations, "All objectives achieved..." He added:

> "This is not only an act of retaliation but part of operations we are carrying out in our war against terrorists... The operation will not be decisive but an important contribution toward the war against terrorists."

## Moscow Condemnation

Moscow TASS yesterday reported that "the Soviet Government has strongly condemned Israel's armed intrusion into the Lebanon, and supported the demand for an immediate termination of aggression and withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanese territory.... One cannot fail to note that the actions of the Israeli expansionists are encouraged by certain circles in the West which are pursuing their own selfish aims and are dangerously playing with fire in the Middle East."

## U. S. Said Israel Had Right to Revenge

Moscow radio broadcast to South Asia on Saturday alleged that "Israel's invasion of the territory of a sovereign Arab state had been prepared a long time ago. Practically all the papers in the Western countries have for many days been writing about an imminent Israeli attack on Lebanon.... Two days ago the Washington Post predicted that a large-scale Israeli attack on Lebanon would take place soon."

The commentary also noted that "all members of the Security Council except the U.S. delegate supported the draft resolution that called for an end to Israel's provocatory actions against neighboring Arab states. Speaking after the resolution had been put to a vote, the American delegate cynically declared that Israel had the moral right to seek revenge on the Arabs after the tragic incident in Munich."

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...REPORT ON MOSCOW VISIT, p. 1

...ISRAELI RAID IN LEBANON, p. 11

KISSINGER TRIP: PRESS CONFERENCE

Summary

Foreign media gave extensive coverage to Henry Kissinger's Saturday press conference on his return from Moscow and stopover visits to London and Paris.

Comment, almost entirely in Western Europe, emphasized his remarks on strengthening the Atlantic Alliance.

For example, the London *Sunday Telegraph* said that although improvement in Soviet-American relations "will inevitably create strains...Dr. Kissinger said that Mr. Nixon had stressed to him that...even more progress must be made in strengthening relations with Western Europe."

The *Stuttgarter Zeitung* said Mr. Kissinger had indicated that in U.S. eyes Europe is the "cornerstone of the entire peace structure."

While reporting that Mr. Kissinger had not been in a position "to report much hope from his Vietnam peace negotiations" (*Times* of London), many observers saw indications of progress in secret talks. These were examples:

--*Figaro* of Paris said, "Mr. Kissinger did not reject the latest proposal from the PRG for a tripartite government in Saigon in terms as categorical as those used by Mr. Porter on Thursday."

--*Corriere della Sera* of Milan commented, "It is still difficult to foresee and evaluate the specific weight of the 'Soviet pressure on Hanoi,' but it is clear that despite the requisite formal denials it is a card Nixon still considers to be playable."

Moscow TASS's Washington correspondent noted that Mr. Kissinger's press conference was "devoted mainly to his conversations in Moscow."

* * *

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London: "Not Much Hope on Vietnam"

Mr. Kissinger's European trip and his Saturday press conference received
wide play in British media during the weekend and today. There was
relatively little comment.

A Washington correspondent wrote in the independent London *Times* this
morning that Mr. Kissinger's disclosure that"his discussions in Russia
and West Europe would lead to new Soviet and American initiatives in
European policy... contrasted sharply with his inability... to report much
hope from his Vietnam peace negotiations."

"Kissinger Stressed Alliance"

The conservative London *Daily Telegraph* carried a Washington dispatch noting that President Nixon plans "a round of summit meetings" with West European leaders after his re-election because he "wants to emphasize that in his pursuit of East-West detente he feels that Atlantic ties should be strengthened rather than the reverse, but on a more equal basis of partnership than before." The paper said that at his press conference "Dr. Kissinger was clearly anxious to emphasize that the thaw in relations between Russia and America did not indicate any weakening of American resolve to stand by the NATO alliance."

The paper ran an editorial on Saturday reminding readers that "Kissinger's
journeys must always be taken seriously. He has achieved a unique status as
Mr. Nixon's single-handed 'fixer' and international man of affairs." Surmising
that the CES and "the linked question of balanced force reductions in Europe
will have figured high on the agenda in Moscow," the paper asserted:

"The American position, supported in greater or lesser
degree by the other NATO members, is that talks on
balanced force reductions must be conducted 'in
parallel' with any preliminary discussions on a secu-
rity conference. Russia wants them completely sepa-
rated one from another, the Russian guess being that
political pressures in America will eventually bring
about American force reductions in Europe whether they
are 'balanced' by Russian withdrawals or not. Britain
should lend every support to the American line on this."

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The paper judged that despite recent South Vietnamese military successes, "it would probably be wrong to assume that North Vietnam is yet ready to put forward serious terms for a cease-fire. The assumption is still that it will launch a new offensive before the American election. Dr. Kissinger has no doubt explained to Le Duc Tho in Paris "the emptiness of any hopes that such an offensive will be successful."

## "U. S. - USSR Relations Will Strain Alliance"

The sister Sunday Telegraph got the impression from Mr. Kissinger's news conference that "the cold war is about to be buried finally in a deluge of agreements." Its Washington correspondent remarked that "the only cloud consists of possibly adverse Western European reactions to rapid American expansion in a market where the West Germans in particular are comfortably installed.

"Moreover, the fact of Russian-American relations improving in such a dramatic rush will inevitably create strains in an alliance forged to deal with Communist military threats.

"Dr. Kissinger said that Mr. Nixon had stressed to him that, however much progress was made in relations with the Communist powers, even more progress must be made in strengthening relations with Western Europe."

The independent London Financial Times said today that the message Mr. Kissinger brought back from his trip was that "prospects appear brighter for starting negotiations later this year on reducing both Russian and American troop levels in Europe." It remarked, on the other hand, that at his press conference "Dr. Kissinger did not throw any really new light on the prospects for a negotiated settlement" in Vietnam "before the American elections."

## Allied Skepticism

A story from Brussels in the liberal Guardian of Manchester and London on Saturday expressed the view that "the NATO allies will almost certainly agree to start East-West preparations for a European security conference on November 22 in Helsinki as a result of the deal worked out between Dr. Kissinger and

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Soviet leaders in Moscow... Sources here say that Dr. Kissinger was able to extract a commitment from the Soviet Union to discuss negotiations on troop cuts in Central Europe by the end of next January....

"Sources pointed out that the U. S. holds still another good card: if the Soviet Union failed to discuss troop levels by the end of January, Washington could then persuade its allies to break off talks on a security conference. Other officials were more skeptical: once preparatory talks on a security conference had started, they argued, it would be extremely difficult to break them off....

"European allies remained suspicious that the U. S. would still prefer to discuss troop cuts on a bilateral, super-power basis with the Russians."

## Paris TV: "The Indispensable Man"

Mr. Kissinger's news conference was reported by French media with little comment. His call on President Pompidou and his meeting with Le Duc Tho and Xuan Thuy led Friday evening television newscasts.

The first network of state-run French TV saw him as a kind of Pimpernel: "He is everywhere and nowhere at the same time. He is in London when believed to be in Moscow, and in Paris when he is supposed to be in London." The network also ran a feature on Mr. Kissinger made up in part of old film clips and including an interview in which he expressed his view of diplomacy. Concluding a review of his career, the narrator said that "as a European transplanted to the U. S., his vision of foreign policy combines German will power, French subtlety and American energy, making him an indispensable man."

A commentator on the second network said that "his extreme discretion about his meeting with Le Duc Tho shows that peace in Vietnam will not be announced today."

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"New Step Toward Peace?"

Regarding the meeting with Le Duc Tho, moderate-left France-Soir asserted that "it is known only that the North Vietnamese reviewed for their visitor the statement made a few days earlier by the PRG on the central political problem of South Vietnam...

"It looks as if the North Vietnamese hinted to Mr. Kissinger that they no longer link the political and military problems so closely as in the past....

"Mr. Kissinger's reaction is not known, but a new step toward peace may have been taken in Paris."

"Kissinger Milder on Coalition"

Noting widespread speculation on the state of the secret Paris negotiations, moderately conservative Figaro said that "the most surprising speculation is coming from Hanoi: it suggests that the North and the PRG might come to terms with President Thieu."

The paper remarked that "in his press conference Mr. Kissinger did not reject the latest proposal from the PRG for a tripartite government in Saigon in terms as categorical as those used by Mr. Porter on Thursday." Recalling statements by President Nixon and Secretary Rogers to the effect that development of economic relations between the U.S. and the USSR depended on increased cooperation on Moscow's part in settling major international questions, and noting that "the two big powers are about to conclude an accord for economic cooperation involving huge exchanges of goods and capital," the paper said that "the optimists in Washington do not hesitate to infer that President Nixon has at least obtained the cooperation of the Soviet Union in his quest for an honorable withdrawal from the war in Vietnam."

Milan: "A Delicate Phase on Vietnam"

Mr. Kissinger's press conference was an inside-page story in the Italian press yesterday and today.

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Independent-conservative *Corriere della Sera* of Milan commented yesterday that the quality of reserve in Mr. Kissinger's statement left "uncertainties on where the Paris negotiations stand," and that this was "in line with White House instructions.

"The impression of well-informed sources in Washington is that a very delicate phase has just been entered.... Hanoi has not yet decided between the two possible alternatives, i.e. a diplomatic compromise or a relaunching of the military offensive in order to embarrass Nixon on the eve of the November election....

Independent *Il Messaggero* in Rome said yesterday that "Kissinger' mission was successful on trade relations, CES, MBFR and SALT...but failed to settle the Vietnam issue."

Conservative *Il Resto del Carlino* of Bologna wrote on Saturday: "There is widespread opinion in Washington that the USSR needs U.S. cooperation... in order to counterbalance the repercussions of its serious economic crisis."

Socialist *Avanti* of Rome said in its discussion of the press conference that "Hanoi is not about to abandon its peace conditions just to make the Soviets happy."

## Frankfurt: "Great Progress"

Major West German newspapers today ran reports of Mr. Kissinger's news conference stressing his remarks on Soviet views regarding the relationship between CES and MBFR.

The independent conservative *Frankfurter Allgemeine* reported today that Mr. Kissinger had achieved "great progress" in his discussions with Moscow.

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Independent *Stuttgarter Zeitung* predicted a Nixon visit to Europe next spring to seek a "new basis for Atlantic partnership." The paper said Mr. Kissinger had indicated that in U.S. eyes Europe is the "cornerstone of the entire peace structure."

## West Berlin: "Resolved Leftover Problems"

Independent *Tagesspiegel* of West Berlin said the Kissinger trip was "important" even if its only result was that he "resolved unsettled questions left over from Nixon's trip to Moscow. He was obviously able to achieve an understanding on the prerequisites for a generous American-Soviet trade treaty.

> "Although financially such a trade treaty is more important for the Soviet Union than for the U.S., there is mutual interest in such a treaty because both super-powers want to strengthen their positions vis-a-vis the growing European Common Market."

Both West German TV networks yesterday showed film clips of Mr. Kissinger's Paris stopover. The Paris correspondent of the first network reported that his talks with the North Vietnamese had been "unsuccessful."

## Vienna: "Europe Only a Stopover?"

The independent *Kurier* of Vienna remarked Saturday:

> "The Soviets evidently want to confront a stronger China not only with divisions but also with increased economic power and... with an American and European investment in the Soviet Union... This opens up new dimensions in world economy and political affairs.

> "Europe is directly affected but this continent will only have a say if it strengthens its own institutions and speaks with one voice. Otherwise, the Kissingers will continue to travel to Moscow and Peking and only make stopovers in Bonn, London and Paris."

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People's Party <u>Volksblatt</u> of Linz commented this morning:

"The European NATO countries would do well to watch the Soviet-American contacts closely and despite the Kissinger talks send an exploratory group of their own to Moscow. In its relations with the Soviets, Washington undoubtedly has its own problems which carry much more weight for America than the question of European security.... We doubt if such a linking of interests is altogether good for European affairs. The still distant security conference will show to what extent the big powers dare use Europe as a pawn in their interests. The conference will also show how much Europe will take lying down."

## Tokyo Treatment

Independent-moderate <u>Mainichi</u> of Tokyo stated that Mr. Kissinger had reported "major progress in U. S. -Soviet relations." As to the Viet Cong proposal, the paper said he "took a cautious approach" and had observed that "the real question is the result of the proposal and not its contents."

Independent-moderate <u>Yomiuri</u> of Tokyo declared:

"Now is a good time to seek a political solution of the Vietnam problem since the U. S. Presidential election is approaching... The Vietnam negotiations have entered a new stage and we hope the U. S. will take a reasonable and flexible attitude."

## Karachi: "A Model for Small Nations"

The <u>Morning News</u> of Karachi said on Friday in regard to Mr. Kissinger's trip:

"The 'balance of prudence' among the three big powers should provide the smaller nations with a new sense of direction in their mutual relations. After all, if the big powers can sink ideological differences in their national interest, there cannot be any reason for smaller nations to fight among themselves on any ground, ideological or otherwise."

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Santiago: "Marco Polo, Magellan"

Independent-conservative *El Mercurio* of Santiago commented last week:

"Kissinger is a combination of Marco Polo, Magellan and Cook. He hops around the world, flies to Moscow and in the Kremlin analyzes with the Soviet hierarchy the question of Vietnam, commercial problems and arms limitation agreements. This is the triumph of ping-pong diplomacy and of 'jet' agreements."

Moscow on Kissinger Remarks

Moscow TASS yesterday carried the report of its Washington correspondent that Mr. Kissinger's press conference was "devoted mainly to his conversations in Moscow." He noted that Mr. Kissinger said "very important progress" had been made on the most-favored-nation, lend-lease and trade agreement issues. His report continued:

"H. Kissinger said they discussed in Moscow the question of an all-European conference on security and cooperation. He recalled that, according to the well-known position of the USSR, a preparatory meeting on European security questions should be held towards the end of this year and that the USSR never agreed, as an official concept, with the U. S. stand which insists there must be a certain relationship between such a conference and a conference on the mutual and balanced reduction of armed forces."

The correspondent said Mr. Kissinger "stressed his belief that there are good prospects for the second round" of the SALT talks, but on the Vietnam issue he said "it is clear that the Soviet Union stands for definite principles in its international affairs and that its views on Vietnam differ from those of the U. S."

"Need for Improved Relations..."

Three Moscow commentaries over the weekend on the Kissinger visit referred to one of the documents of the Moscow summit meeting last May, "The Basis of Relations between the USSR and the U. S.," as stressing the importance of the principle of peaceful coexistence.

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One of these, a commentary in *New Times* magazine broadcast to the U.S., said that the Kissinger-Brezhnev discussion of European security was "natural" because "developments ever since World War II have shown that tensions in Europe always affect the whole world adversely and, to put it the other way round, progress in European politics improves the whole international atmosphere." Referring to a State Department statement that the U.S. and its allies were ready to negotiate in Helsinki in a conference with the Soviet Union and its allies on European security and cooperation, and to Mr. Kissinger's discussions with Mr. Brezhnev, the commentary concluded the U.S. and the USSR "have plenty of elements in common in their attitude to the European conference and to its purposes and goals. The intensive dialogue begun in Europe between the East and the West, alongside the developing cooperation between the USSR and the U.S., must be continued for the sake of all nations and of stronger international security."

On Saturday, Moscow Radio broadcast the text of an article by Valentin Berezhkov, editor of Moscow's USA magazine, on the Brezhnev-Kissinger discussions. The article stated: "Reports of the Brezhnev-Kissinger talks state that substantial results have already been obtained in implementing the bilateral agreements since last May. The two sides also concurred that further progress may be expected. The two countries naturally differ most emphatically on many key problems, Indochina, for example, where the continuing war and the savage bombings of the DRV provoke anger and indignation in the USSR. Our approach to Middle East events also differs...

"The gap between the American and Soviet positions on a number of concrete matters has definitely grown smaller of late. That undoubtedly indicates that the U.S. has adopted a more realistic approach to them. Probably the most important are the agreement already obtained on limiting strategic weapons and the expressed intention of continuing negotiations on this issue." The article also noted the State Department statement on a Helsinki conference on European security and concluded that the principles of coexistence "are the only basis on which to conduct relations between the socialist and the capitalist countries in this day and age."

"...Not at the Expense of Others"

A commentary in Portuguese to Brazil Saturday on coexistence said the Brezhnev-Kissinger talks were "sincere and constructive" and concluded "the

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USSR believes an improvement of relations with the U. S. is necessary.
Nevertheless, this should not be at the expense of other countries."

Xuan Thuy Statement

Agence France-Presse reported Saturday from Paris that DRV chief negotiator Xuan Thuy told journalists after his meeting with Mr. Kissinger that the "U. S. point of view on the political and military question is still far from our point of view." Refusing to divulge the content of the talks, Mr. Thuy added that the U. S. "is not willing to accept a tripartite government in South Vietnam and still supports President Nguyen Van Thieu." Questioned on "optimistic" U. S. statements that the war could end before or shortly after the American election, Mr. Thuy was reported as replying, "We do not see any signs indicating the war is about to end. The air-naval war continues to be intensified." He added he could see "no softening" of the U. S. position at the present.

The Viet Cong radio said on Saturday:

"Everyone knows Thieu is a monster of the Nixon Doctrine, a lackey in the service of the Vietnamization policy."

ISRAELI RAID IN LEBANON

Summary

The weekend attack by Israeli forces on Arab guerrilla bases in Lebanon received prominent news treatment in several capitals.

In sparse comment, the London Sunday *Observer* warned that the action could
"boomerang against the Jewish state."

A contributor to *Figaro* of Paris said Israel was "feeling its strength" in a period
following the "decline of Soviet influence in Egypt" and preceding the U. S. elections.

Moscow TASS reported that the Soviet Government "strongly condemned" the raids
and said Israel had been encouraged by "certain circles in the West."

* * *

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London: "Israel's Revenge"

These were British headlines:

"TANKS, PLANES TAKE ISRAEL'S REVENGE"
(Conservative London Sunday Express)

"ISRAEL HITS FATAH BASES"
(Independent London Observer)

The latter paper reported from Jerusalem that "it was much more than retaliation for the Munich murders. The Israelis apparently feel that guerrilla activity in the Middle East and abroad has again reached such a pitch that only a major flushing-out operation will suffice. The Israeli message is that if the Arabs want war they can have it."

"Undermines Israel's Moral Standing"

In an editorial the paper warned that Israel's action might "boomerang." It asserted:

"Neither reprisal attacks against Fatah guerrilla camps (with the inevitable loss of innocent lives as well as of guerrillas), nor the suggestion put forward by some prominent Israelis that Israel might have to engage in attacks against Black September leaders abroad, are likely to achieve the desired objective of putting an end to their terrorism.

"These methods can result only in undermining Israel's moral standing and, if her Government were to license its own assassins, would bring Israel down to the level of the terrorists. No friend of Israel should silently acquiesce in, or publicly condone, a course of action that is not only negative but likely to boomerang against the Jewish state."

The paper argued that Israel "is fully justified in demanding vigorous international action to deny support for the terrorist extremists of the Arab guerrilla movement. Her Government is right, too, in feeling aggrieved that Britain

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and other countries left it to the Americans alone to veto the one-sided
resolution presented to the Security Council that sought to deplore the
reprisals without in any way referring to the events at Munich that had
led to these attacks."

It concluded that "we should not lose sight of the single reality that the
only way of effectively rooting out terrorism is through a negotiated peace
settlement in the Middle East."

The conservative *Sunday Telegraph*, reporting that the Black September movement planned to set up a London base and that Britain was tightening security precautions, carried the observation of its diplomatic correspondent that "Israel has made clear to Britain its deep concern over present diplomatic overtures from London to Cairo. The view being taken in Jerusalem is that relations between Britain and Israel could soon reach a 'critical' stage as a result."

### Paris: "Israel Feeling Its Strength"

Academician Thierry Maulnier wrote in today's moderately conservative *Figaro* of Paris:

> "Israel is currently feeling its strength because the U.S., even if tempted to adopt an attitude less committed to the Jewish state because of the decline of Soviet influence in Egypt, could not afford to do so a few weeks before the Presidential elections. The few million Jewish voters are now the decisive element in the situation."

### "Had U.S. Blessing"

A correspondent in Israel reported in today's moderate-right *Aurore* of Paris that the operation into Lebanon "in all likelihood had at least the tacit blessing of the U.S., which saw no objection to an action intended not only to reduce the guerrillas' potential in the field but also to boost the authority of the Lebanese Government at home, with a view to a Jordan-like operation aimed at bringing the extremists to heel."

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## Communist Paper: "U.S. Was Kept Informed"

Communist **Humanite** of Paris commented today:

> "An authorized source in Jerusalem specified that the U.S. had been kept informed of the situation minute by minute, and that Washington did not raise any objection at any time.... This attitude should be enough to remind us of the nefarious role played by American imperialism, in the Middle East and elsewhere."

## West German Headlines

The Middle East situation was the top story in West German newspapers today. Typical headlines were "Israel Calls Action Complete Success," "Lebanon Confronts Palestinian Guerrillas With Ultimatum," "Lebanese Army Takes Action Against Fedayeen" and "Will Israel Attack Syria Now?"

## Kuala Lumpur: "Matching Violence With Violence"

The conservative **Straits Times** of Kuala Lumpur said today:

> "The Lebanese army's ultimatum to Palestinian commandos demanding they evacuate Lebanese villages removes all pre-text for the Israeli invasion. The Lebanese Government can scarcely go further...

> "Diplomatic initiative outside the U.N. may restrain further Israeli action in revenge for Munich or on any pre-text. Planned or not, the Israeli Government has seemed bent on matching violence with worse violence until all possibility of peace is submerged by war."

## Beirut Treatment

Beirut papers today bannered the withdrawal of Israeli forces and ran pictures of withdrawing vehicles, destroyed houses and civilian victims. Premier Salam's statement that "no ultimatum was served on the commandos to withdraw from southern Lebanon villages" was widely noted, as were reports by Syrian newspapers that an Israeli attack on Syria was thought likely.

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## Demand That Lebanon Break With U. S.

Virtually all leftist and most independent papers stressed the statement issued in Beirut yesterday by the Lebanese "Nationalist and Progressive Forces," demanding that Lebanon sever diplomatic relations with the U.S. "on grounds it incited Israeli aggression and associated itself with it." The statement alleged the U.S. veto in the Security Council gave Israel a "green light" to attack Lebanon.

Most papers hailed the courage and performance of Lebanon's army in its confrontation with Israeli forces.

Leftist pro-Cairo al-Muharrir declared:

"Now that the Lebanese army has foiled the Israeli attack, the enemy should not be allowed to succeed politically through Lebanese-commando confrontation."

Leftist pro-Cairo ash-Shaab said that "our triumph will be complete only if our national unity remains secure." It added:

"Premier Salam said Lebanon will not clash with the commandos. He should be held responsible for putting these words into effect."

## Cairo: Heykel Proposal

Editor Muhammed Heykel of al-Ahram of Cairo called yesterday for "an urgent Arab summit conference to face the Israeli aggression against Lebanon and the Resistance," Cairo's Middle East News Agency reported.

## Tel Aviv: "Lebanon Now Knows the Alternatives"

Israeli papers today argued that the operation was not sufficient to "close the account." Political writers contended that the U.S. neither protested nor demanded the cessation of the Israeli action.

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Semi-official Davar of Tel Aviv declared:

## Moscow Condemnation

## U.S. Said Israel Had Right to Revenge

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... Western Europe, p. 2 Middle East, p. 10 Soviet Union, p. 11

KISSINGER TRIP: JOINT STATEMENT AND STOPOVERS

Summary

Media in a number of countries prominently played the U.S. - USSR statement issued after Henry Kissinger's three days in Moscow and speculated on the content of his subsequent talks in London and Paris.

Major emphasis in comment on the Moscow visit concerned the prospective trade accord.

--The *Times* of London remarked that "any expansion of world trade is of general benefit, and anything which fosters interdependence among the superpowers should contribute to peaceful coexistence."

--The New York correspondent of *Corriere della Sera* of Milan concluded that the trade negotiations foreshadowed a "turning point in the economic relations and inevitably, therefore, in the political relations between the two largest superpowers."

Speculative discussions of the London and Paris stopovers stressed European concerns.

The Manchester *Guardian* reported that "diplomatic sources" in London suggested that "the Soviet Union may have told Dr. Kissinger that it was willing to take part in 'exploratory talks'" on reduction of forces in Europe.

Gaullist *La Nation* of Paris considered it "a safe bet that Mr. Kissinger is not loath to test the wind concerning the prospects for... that enlarged Europe which seems to be the Americans' pet aversion."

Expectation that Mr. Kissinger would see Le Duc Tho today in Paris bolstered hopes that the trip may have advanced chances for a Vietnam settlement.

*Wiener Zeitung* of Vienna said the two men "can hardly work miracles, but it would be a lot if they could only check the fury of the war."

Monitored Moscow media have not commented on the trip.

*

*

*

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London: Optimistic Tone

British media expressed optimism about Mr. Kissinger's visit to Moscow. Commenting yesterday on reports of an understanding on the lend-lease debt, and today on the security and trade prospects mentioned in the joint U.S. - USSR statement, observers generally judged that increased interdependence between the major powers was a factor of world stability.

A diplomatic correspondent on BBC-TV praised Dr. Kissinger as a "powerful and brilliant" man who had traveled faster and further than anyone else in international politics, thereby helping President Nixon fulfill his "world policy" strategy.

The independent *Times* of London reported in a front-page story that "the link between the European security conference and the possibility of force reductions in Europe was one of the many topics discussed by Dr. Henry Kissinger during his visit to London.... The Americans are opposed to proceeding with a European security conference unless there is a firm undertaking on the Russian side to discuss mutual and balanced force reductions."

"Trade Expansion Benefits All"

In an editorial the paper expressed the view that "any expansion of world trade is of general benefit, and anything which fosters interdependence among the superpowers should contribute to peaceful coexistence. For instance, the Soviet Union's five-year plan now depends heavily on American farmers, and both sides would suffer if the huge grain deal were interrupted."

"Yet it is also difficult to believe that the Soviet Union will accept indefinitely the fact that her own huge plains apparently cannot be cultivated with sufficient efficiency to meet her needs. This part of the deal is bound to look temporary, but it does have the immediate advantage of reducing American pressure on the Common Market's agricultural policy."

"In the longer term, the main impetus for trade between the two countries will be the Soviet Union's need for technology...."

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Noting potential problems in the Soviet Union's economic relations with its East Europe partners and in the complexities of pricing in East-West trade and coproduction agreements, the paper said that nevertheless, "in the long run, if the Russians want real progress they will have to think more about joint production agreements and participation by Western capital. This raises all sorts of political and other problems, but progress is already visible..." It concluded:

> "A real and solid boom in East-West trade is still a long way off, but at least this leaves time for ample study of the political and other possible implications."

## "Implicit U. S. -USSR Differences"

The independent *Financial Times* remarked in a news story that "it is implicit" in the joint statement "that, although the two sides have apparently narrowed the gap in their negotiations on the lend-lease debts, some differences still remain to be resolved, The word here is that the U.S. has now lowered its demand from about 800 million dollars to 500 million dollars." Yesterday, the paper remarked that a debt repayment understanding "would open the way for Congressional assent to the Soviet Union gaining most-favored-nation status in its trade dealings with the U.S."

Regarding the European security conference and MBFR, the paper today "assumed" that Dr. Kissinger had informed British leaders of the Soviet position and added, "It is believed that the Soviet Union may still be unwilling to accept the American and NATO position that preparatory talks on a conference must be paralleled with others on MBFR."

## "Possible Threat to Trade Agreement"

A Washington story in the liberal *Guardian* of Manchester and London today reported that "a possible threat" to the Russian-American trade agreement "is growing in Congress, where there is considerable feeling against the Soviet Union's new policy of imposing education taxes on Jews wishing to emigrate."

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The paper, frequently critical of the conduct of U.S. foreign policy, commented on Dr. Kissinger's Moscow discussions:

> "An American ambassador's lot is not always a happy one. The U.S. Ambassador in Moscow has just spent three days cooling his heels in the Kremlin waiting room while special Presidential adviser Henry Kissinger negotiated what seems to be the first part of a rather important trade agreement. But last night, like the rest of us, all that the Ambassador knew for sure was what the communique said...

> "Special presidential advisers report to the President and to no one else, and the State Department in all its glory must wait its turn at the White House door...

> "If Kissinger, in a moment of misplaced sincerity, has negotiated a bad agreement, the Department will just have to live with it."

Yesterday, the paper cited "diplomatic sources in London" as believing that "the Soviet Union may have told Dr. Kissinger that it was willing to take part in 'exploratory talks' on troop cuts."

> "*Marx Spinning in His Grave?*"

The conservative London *Daily Express* today said that "it looks as though American businessmen will be opening up in Moscow to join those other capitalists from Europe who are building up man-made fibre and motor industries in Russia. Karl Marx must be spinning in his grave."

Yesterday the paper speculated that Dr. Kissinger had "cleared the way for a huge increase in trade between the two world giants which could top two billion dollars by 1977."

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## Paris TV: "What a Man of Action!"

Mr. Kissinger's Paris stopover was the principal foreign story in the French press.

French TV last night ran film clips of his arrival in London and reported on accomplishments in Moscow. A commentator said:

> "What a man of action, that Henry Kissinger.... Mr. Kissinger, who has President Nixon's complete confidence, is making important decisions for the U.S."

## "Testing the Wind for Europe"

Gaullist La Nation suggested that "it is a safe bet that Mr. Kissinger is not loath to test the wind concerning the prospects for an enlarged Europe, that enlarged Europe which seems to be the Americans' pet aversion."

It said President Pompidou would continue to be "very firm, convinced as he is that there cannot be any question of recognizing for the U.S. --or for any other country outside of the Community--the permanent right to control European affairs in such a way as to deprive Europe forever of any independent say."

## "Agreement on Talks About Force Reductions?"

Foreign editor Michel Tatu asserted yesterday in independent-left Le Monde of Paris that "commercial problems were not the only ones discussed by Mr. Kissinger in his Moscow conversations. Besides Vietnam and the Middle East Mr. Nixon's adviser has discussed East-West relations in Europe.... Have the Soviets and the Americans finally agreed to open talks on reduction of forces in Europe, and if so, within what framework and at what date?...

> "... This problem of reduction of forces is made even more complex by the fact that a very important part of the military problems of Europe, namely the question of American strategic arms on the Old Continent, has been kept in reserve for the second part of the SALT negotiations set to open in Geneva this autumn."

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# "Kissinger Jurisdiction Increasing"

Independent-left, pro-European <u>Combat</u> of Paris today assumed that the emphasis in the Kissinger-Pompidou talks was on Europe:

> "Europe is now the cause of rather extensive Franco-American differences....

> "It is conspicuous that Mr. Kissinger's jurisdiction now extends to Europe (and perhaps to the Middle East) and that his personal diplomacy continues to short-circuit that of the State Department.

> "It remains to be seen whether the White House adviser can pacify relations between France and the U.S."

Financial <u>Les Echos</u> of Paris said the Pompidou-Kissinger meeting, "five weeks before the European summit conference, is of the greatest importance.

> "It is in fact essential that the French President, concerned with making Franco-American relations more rational and less passionate, should in his visitor's presence demolish those malevolent accusations often made against France by its European partners concerning the relations between the Europe of Brussels and the U.S., which are not good, and put the facts in their true light."

## Italian TV Treatment

State-run Italian TV last evening devoted six minutes of its main newscast to the story. A foreign affairs analyst spoke of "substantial progress towards a major trade agreement between the U. S. and the US SR." He noted that "Nixon's adviser reported to Heath... on the CES, a conference which is of great importance to the Russians."

A Paris TV correspondent noted that "after a few optimistic moments, the Paris conference again seems to be stranded." He then detailed the September 11 Viet Cong proposal, remarking that the "U. S. impression is that--

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one way or the other--it would mean placing South Vietnam in Viet Cong hands." He concluded, "We shall see whether Kissinger's remarkable ability and that of his talking partner, Le Duc Tho, will be able to remove the obstacles."

Independent *Corriere della Sera* of Milan headlined, "Soviet Pledge on Vietnam Fostered Agreements With Kissinger." It suggested that silence on Indochina would be "considered evidence that negotiations toward a compromise are underway."

*"Joint Statement Deliberately Vague"*

The paper's New York correspondent commented that the "joint statement is deliberately vague... but not on that account less important and revealing." He said that he had it from "reliable Washington sources that 'technical obstacles' to a trade agreement... have now been substantially removed."

Noting that "many signs indicate that the trade accord, as long ago as Nixon's Moscow visit in May, was clearly tied to Soviet intervention in solving the Vietnam conflict," he concluded that the present trade negotiations fore shadow "an extremely important turning point in the economic relations and inevitably, therefore, in the political relations between the two largest super-powers."

*"High Hopes for U.S.-USSR Collaboration"*

Left-of-center *La Stampa* of Turin today carried an ANSA news service story which said in part:

"According to reliable diplomatic sources, the significance of the trade agreement and the speed with which it was reached show that the business discussed in Moscow is the launching platform for a major political move toward international coexistence....

"By pointing out to the Soviets the strong possibility of realizing their great dream of prosperity through the development of the enormous Siberian oil resources with

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large U.S. investments--as told to us unofficially by reliable sources--the U.S. now has high hopes of successful Soviet collaboration toward solving three major problems of its foreign policy: Vietnam, CES, and SALT/MBFR."

Stuttgart: "Vietnam May Have Been Top Subject"

The independent *Stuttgarter Zeitung* said today:

"The joint statement indicates that Kissinger has paved the way for early conclusion of a U.S.-Soviet trade agreement....

"The fact that CES was a topic explains why Kissinger consulted with Brandt on his way to Moscow....

"The communique does not say anything on Vietnam, although that may have been the most important subject of discussion....

"A possible Kissinger-Le Duc Tho meeting in Paris today might indicate whether Kissinger was successful in trying to enlist Kremlin support for liquidating the Vietnam war."

"Kissinger Very Satisfied"

Independent-right *Die Welt*, Hamburg, headlined today: "Kissinger Paves Way for Trade Agreement with USSR," and other newspapers stressed that subject in reports of the conclusion of the Moscow visit. Pro-Social Democratic Frankfurter Rundschau added: "Kissinger Very Satisfied."

Major newspapers yesterday reported from Moscow that "Western quarters" now expect, as a result of Mr. Kissinger's discussions there, an initiative by the U.S. to bring about an "early political settlement" of the Vietnam war in direct contacts with Hanoi and the Viet Cong.

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Independent, influential weekly *Die Zeit* of Hamburg wrote that it was "self-evident" that Vietnam was "a principal issue." The paper judged the PRG's September 11 statement to be different from its previous position in that the prospective "government of national concord" could comprise representatives of the Thieu regime and concluded:

> "This concession may be considered a signal to the U. S. The new Viet Cong proposal might fit into Washington's pattern and lead to another Kissinger-Le Duc Tho meeting in Paris."

## West German TV: "Europe the Major Problem"

Both West German television networks showed a film last night of Mr. Kissinger's arrival in London and reported that his secret negotiations in Paris would continue.

The Moscow correspondent of the second TV network said Wednesday:

> "I believe the bilateral negotiations... are going very well. On the Middle East and Indochina, I feel that confrontation has changed to silent cooperation in order to overcome dangerous tensions."

> "Europe remains the major problem, especially the CES. I see the main problem in the definition of the term 'security.' The USSR... understands a political security system as synonymous with a European security treaty... At the maximum they want the balance of power in Europe applied to the world-wide situation. The U.S.... wants to improve European security by reducing military forces without constructing a political system... In my opinion, Kissinger sought in Moscow a resolution of these complicated and opposing positions."

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Vienna: "Kissinger, Le Duc Tho Likely to Meet"

Semi-official *Wiener Zeitung* of Vienna judged that the Lon Nol Government, a "pillar" in the over-all U. S. Indochina policy, was beginning to "totter" and that its instability "emphasized the need for a political settlement....

"Presidential adviser Henry Kissinger and North Viet-
namese special envoy Le Duc Tho are likely to meet in
the next few hours. The two politicians can hardly work
miracles, but it would be a lot if they could only check
the fury of the war."

Cairo: Haykel on U. S. Role

Mohammad Haykel, editor of Cairo's semi-official al-Ahram today devoted his weekly column to denying rumors that he had planned to meet Mr. Kissinger in Europe. Haykel said he told a West German television interviewer:

"I do not believe that at present the U.S. can contribute any positive effort in the Middle East crisis.... there are priorities which take precedence over anything else..."

These were, he stated, "rearranging and bolstering" Egyptian relations with the Soviet Union, "our most important and closest friend," strengthening the "broad Arab confrontation" against the U.S. and mobilizing resources "for a direct confrontation with Israel," by Egypt alone, or with Libya, or with Libya and Syria. Heykel continued:

"It might be useful to open the door with the U. S. after all this, but not before... The U. S. cannot have anything new or useful to say to us or to anybody else because the American political theatre has now changed into a clamorous electoral circus and will remain like this for the next five or six months."

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## Tel Aviv: "Congressional Opposition to Trade"

Prestigious independent Haaretz of Tel Aviv said today that Congressional opposition was developing to a trade agreement with the USSR that could "disrupt Moscow's hopes." It declared that the Administration had two aims in its policy to expand trade with the USSR--benefit to the U.S. economy and "belief that cooperation will result in liberalization of Soviet internal and global policy...

"The Kremlin, it seems, hopes this will create interests and pressure groups in America with substantial influence on U.S. foreign policy."

## Moscow: No Direct Comment

Moscow media have not commented directly on the Kissinger visit.

## "Equality a Major Principle"

Speaking on Radio Moscow, historian Peter Shiskin today asserted that "certain American politicians" were exploiting fear in order to continue the arms race.

He said "the biggest thing achieved" during President Nixon's Moscow visit was agreement on "basic principles" of U. S. -USSR relations and that "equality is one of the major principles." He continued:

"The present international situation calls for a realistic approach to the balance of power and recognition by the great powers as well as by all other countries of equality and equal rights for all. This makes it especially important that the basic principles of relations between USSR and the U. S. accept equality as a rule....

"The two countries agreed to resolve their agruments by peaceful means. This is to be promoted by steady consultations and exchanges of opinion at different levels, including the top. Peaceful coexistence provides broad

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opportunities for solving even the most acute problem
of our time, disarmament. In the past, the great powers
feared to negotiate. They were afraid of being cheated,
afraid that disarmament could give the other side an ad-
vantage. Incidentally, this fear is still pushed by certain
American politicians as an excuse for persisting in the
arms race.

"However, the Soviet Union and the U. S. have agreed to coexist peacefully and have been able to conclude the treaty on the limitation of antiballistic missile systems and the interim agreement on certain measures with respect to the limitation of strategic offensive weapons. The principle is that each side should be equally secure. It excludes any military advantage for either side to the damage of the other. The treaty and the agreements restricting strategic arms have shown that given peaceful coexistence, the USSR and the U. S. can concord steps to stop the arms race. The two countries agreed that when the agreements come into force, talks will continue on making possible further agreements to limit arms."

Podgorny on PRG Statement

Radio Moscow today broadcast the text of a speech by President Podgorny at a dinner last night for visiting Iraqi President al-Bakr. Podgorny recalled the record of Soviet support for the Arab cause against Israel, "which is supported by the U.S.," and also declared that the USSR "decisively, resolutely and firmly stands against the imperialist policy of subjugation and aggression wherever it may be."

"The USSR, as before, decisively supports the heroic Viet-
namese people in their struggle against the U. S. aggressor
and for the withdrawal of U. S. forces from South Vietnam....
We support the constructive proposals of our Vietnamese
friends with regard to a just solution of the question of Viet-
nam, including the statement of the PRG issued on 11
September..."

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KISSINGER CONSULTATIONS

(IV)

**Foreign Media Reaction**

September 18, 1972

LONDON

A Washington correspondent wrote in independent London *Times* this morning that Mr. Kissinger's disclosure that "his discussions in Russia and West Europe would lead to new Soviet and American initiatives in European policy... contrasted sharply with his inability... to report much hope from his Vietnam peace negotiations."

On Thursday the paper reported that agreement may have been reached on "the thorny problem of the repayment of Russia's war debts..." if so, it clears the major obstacle to a trade agreement between the two nations...."

The conservative *Daily Telegraph* today carried a Washington dispatch noting that President Nixon plans "a round of summit meetings" with West European leaders after the election "to emphasize that in his pursuit of East-West detente, he feels that Atlantic ties should be strengthened rather than the reverse, but on a more equal basis of partnership than before." The paper said that at his press conference, "Dr. Kissinger was clearly anxious to emphasize that the thaw in relations between Russia and America did not indicate any weakening of American resolve to stand by the NATO Alliance."

The independent *Financial Times* of London said today that the message Mr. Kissinger brought back from his trip was that "prospects appear brighter for starting negotiations later this year on reducing both Russian and American troop levels in Europe." It remarked, on the other hand, that at his press conference, "Dr. Kissinger did not throw any really new light on the prospects for a negotiated settlement before the American elections."

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The Sunday Telegraph got the impression from Mr. Kissinger's news conference that "the Cold War is about to be buried finally in a deluge of agreements." Its Washington correspondent remarked that "the only cloud consists of possibly adverse Western European reactions to rapid American expansion in a market where the West Germans in particular are comfortably installed."

PARIS

The first network of state-run French TV saw him as a kind of Pimpernel: "He is everywhere and nowhere at the same time. He is in London when believed to be in Moscow, and in Paris when he is supposed to be in London." The network ran a feature, made up in part of old film clips, on Mr. Kissinger's career which concluded, "As a European transplanted to the U.S., his vision of foreign policy combines German will power, French subtlety and American energy, making him an indispensable man."

Regarding Mr. Kissinger's meeting with Le Duc Tho, moderate left France Soir asserted, "It looks as if the North Vietnamese hinted to Mr. Kissinger that they no longer link the political and military problems so closely as in the past...."

"Mr. Kissinger's reaction is not known, but a new step toward peace has perhaps been taken in Paris."

Reporting widespread speculation on the "true state" of the secret Paris negotiations, moderately conservative Figaro noted the possibility that North Vietnam and the PRG "might come to terms with President Thieu." The paper remarked that "in his press conference Mr. Kissinger did not reject the latest PRG proposal for a tripartite government in Saigon in as categorical terms as those used by Mr. Porter on Thursday." Referring to the Moscow discussions on an economic agreement, the paper stated; "the optimists in Washington do not hesitate to infer that President Nixon has at last obtained the cooperation of the Soviet Union in his quest for an honorable withdrawal from the war in Vietnam."

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WEST GERMANY

Major West German newspapers today ran reports of Mr. Kissinger's
news conference, stressing his remarks on Soviet views on the relation-
ship between CES and MBFR.

The independent conservative *Frankfurter Allgemeine* reported that
Mr. Kissinger had achieved "great progress" in his Moscow discussions.

Independent *Stuttgarter Zeitung* expected a Nixon visit to Europe next
spring to seek a "new basis for Atlantic partnership." The paper said
Mr. Kissinger had indicated that, as far as the U.S. is concerned,
Europe is the "cornerstone of the entire peace structure."

Major newspapers Thursday reported from Moscow that "Western quarters"
now expect, as a result of Mr. Kissinger's discussions there, an initiative
by the U.S. to bring about an "early political settlement" of the Vietnam
war in direct contacts with Hanoi and the Viet Cong.

Saturday in West Berlin, independent *Tagesspiegel* termed the Kissinger
trip "important," even if its only result was that "Kissinger resolved
unsettled questions left over from Nixon's trip to Moscow. He was ob-
viously able to achieve an understanding on the prerequisites for a
generous American-Soviet trade treaty."

VIENNA

The independent Kurier of Vienna remarked Saturday: "The Soviets
evidently want to confront a stronger China not only with divisions but
also increased economic power and... with an American and (Western)
European investment in the Soviet Union... This opens up new dimen-
sions in world economy and political affairs. Europe is directly
affected but this continent will only have a say if it strengthens its own
institutions and speaks with one voice. Otherwise, the Kissingers will
continue to travel to Moscow and Peking and only make stopovers in
Bonn, London and Paris."

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9/18/72

ROME

The press conference was an inside-page story in the Italian press yesterday and today; accounts of his stops in European capitals were generally frontpaged during his trip.

Independent *Corriere della Sera* of Milan commented yesterday that the quality of reserve in Mr. Kissinger's statement left "uncertainties on where the Paris negotiations stand" and this was "in line with White House instructions..."

"The impression of well-informed sources in Washington is that a very delicate phase has just been entered.... Hanoi has not yet decided between the two possible alternatives, i. e. a diplomatic compromise or a re-launching of the military offensive in order to embarrass Nixon on the eve of the November election...."

"It is still difficult to foresee and evaluate the specific weight of the 'Soviet pressure on Hanoi,' but it is clear that, despite the requisite formal denials, it is a card Nixon still considers to be playable."

Socialist Avanti of Rome said in its discussion of the press conference that "Hanoi is not about to abandon its own peace conditions just in order to make the Soviets happy."

TOKYO

Independent-moderate Yomiuri declared today: "Now is a good time to seek a political solution of the Vietnam problem since the U.S. Presidential election is approaching... The Vietnam negotiations have entered a new stage and we hope the U.S. will take a reasonable and flexible attitude."

Independent-moderate Mainichi stated that Kissinger had reported "major progress" in U.S.-Soviet relations. As to the Viet Cong proposal, the paper said that Kissinger "took a cautious approach" and had observed that "the real question is the consequence of the proposal and not its contents."

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SANTIAGO

Independent-conservative *El Mercurio* of Santiago de Chile commented last week: "Kissinger is a combination of Marco Polo, Magellan and Cook. He hops around the world, flies to Moscow and in the Kremlin analyzes with the Soviet hierarchs the question of Vietnam, commercial problems and arms-limitation agreements. This is the triumph of ping-pong diplomacy and of 'jet' agreements."

MOSCOW

Moscow radio yesterday in its English service to North America broadcast a commentary in *New Times* magazine on the Kissinger-Brezhnev discussions on European security which declared that discussion of that issue was "natural" because East and West "confront each other here" and "developments ever since World War II have shown that tensions in Europe always affect the whole world adversely and, to put it the other way 'round, progress in European politics improves the whole international atmosphere." Referring to a State Department statement that the U.S. and its allies were ready to negotiate in Helsinki and to Mr. Kissinger's discussions with Mr. Brezhnev, the commentary concluded the U.S. and the USSR "have plenty of elements in common in their attitude to a European conference and to its purposes and goals. The intensive dialogue begun in Europe between the East and the West alongside the developing cooperation between the USSR and the U.S. must be continued for the sake of all nations and of stronger international security."

On Saturday, Moscow radio broadcast the text of an article by Valentin Berezhkov, editor of Moscow's *USA* magazine, which said: "Reports of the Brezhnev-Kissinger talks state that substantial results have already been obtained in implementing the bilateral agreements signed last May. The two sides also concurred that further progress may be expected. The two countries naturally differ most emphatically on many key problems, Indochina, for example, where the continuing war and the savage bombings of the DRV provoke anger and indignation in the USSR. Our approach to the Middle Eastern events also differs...

"The gap between the American and Soviet positions on a number of concrete matters has definitely grown smaller of late. That undoubtedly indicates the U.S. has adopted a more realistic approach to them. Probably the most important are the agreement already obtained on limiting strategic weapons and the expressed intention of continuing negotiations on this issue." The article also noted the State Department statement on a Helsinki conference on European security and concluded

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XUAN THUY STATEMENT

Agence France Presse reported Saturday from Paris that DRV chief negotiator Xuan Thuy told journalists after the meeting with Mr. Kissinger that the "U.S. point of view on the political and military question is still far from our point of view." Refusing to divulge the content of the talks, Mr. Thuy added the U.S. "is not willing to accept a tripartite government in South Vietnam and still supports President Nguyen Van Thieu." Questioned on "optimistic" U.S. statements that the war could end before or shortly after the American election, Mr. Thuy was reported as replying, "we do not see any signs indicating the war is about to end. The air-naval war continues to be intensified." He added he could see "no softening" of the U.S. position at the present.

PEKING

Monitored Peking media have not yet commented on Mr. Kissinger's
European visit.

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KISSINGER CONSULTATIONS

(III)

Foreign Media Reaction

September 13, 1972

LONDON

The conservative and influential *Daily Telegraph* observed this morning that "Mr. Kissinger is expected to brief Mr. Heath and the Foreign Secretary on last month's talks between President Nixon and the Japanese Prime Minister... whom they will be visiting next week... There is widespread speculation that Mr. Kissinger will meet North Vietnam's chief negotiator, Le Duc Tho, when he is in Paris (after London.)" The article went on to say that Washington was now trying to assess the Viet Cong peace proposal.

The independent *Financial Times* reported from Washington that "Tho's return to Paris.... has aroused speculation that some movement may be underway towards a settlement of the war and that he may do some private negotiating with the President's chief foreign affairs adviser."
The report said that the Americans were hoping to "clear away the obstacles still blocking further agreement on bilateral trade," mentioning the presence in Moscow of Mr. James Lynn, Undersecretary of Commerce.

PARIS

Moderate conservative Figaro's Moscow correspondent, Robert LaContre, reported: "The secrecy has been well kept over what has been said for the past two days. Yet certain non-American sources are hinting that both sides have shown the same common will for understanding and frank explanations as at the big summit last June." LaContre said the Americans had reportedly "given the green light" for setting an early date for the European security conference. The Soviets and Americans have "reportedly agreed to do all they can to stop the fire" in the Middle East. On Vietnam, "the question has been mainly to define the limits of the concessions the two sides would have to make rather than to seek a solution at the Paris peace talks or in Hanoi. He concluded: "This package of good understanding might soon result in a resumption of the SALT conversations and in a few economic accords."

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ROME

On state-run Rome radio this morning a foreign affairs analyst reported
on Mr. Kissinger's scheduled stopovers in London and Paris and noted:
"Kissinger's trip to Paris reinforces the rumors that he will meet Le Duc
Tho... Observers believe that the Vietnam problem was given special
attention during the Moscow talks..."

Independent *Corriere della Sera* of Milan wrote: "Nixon clearly showed that economic accords will be carried out if Moscow will contribute to a solution of the Vietnam issue, and there are many signs that Brezhnev has accepted the dialogue on these terms."

Independent *Il Messaggero* of Rome objected that Italy's government leaders were being left out of Kissinger's consultations and hoped that they would be brought up to date through "normal diplomatic channels."

WEST GERMANY

West German newspapers today said Mr. Kissinger would visit Paris and London after his Moscow conference to inform leaders in those capitals of his Kremlin discussions. Papers also said he would meet with Le Duc Tho.

Second network television correspondent in Moscow said the secrecy
surrounding the Kremlin talks was "complete," but he asserted, "there
can be no doubt that Indochina is a main topic. It is also clear that
the USSR supports the peace plan of the Viet Cong and Hanoi." Other
main issues, he said, were the Middle East, SALT, CES and bilateral
matters.

VIENNA

Socialist *Arbeiter-Zeitung* of Vienna today judged that Mr. Kissinger's
talks in Moscow, together with the secret meetings with Le Duc Tho
and the PRG September 11 announcement, "warrant the assumption that
Washington is preparing a counter-move" on Vietnam. The editorial
concluded: "If Nixon succeeds in presenting a negotiated settlement
before election day, this would be likely to clinch his victory."

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KISSINGER CONSULTATIONS

(II)

Foreign Media Reaction

September 12, 1972

WEST GERMANY

West German television on Monday night showed film clips of Mr. Kissinger's arrival in Moscow and predicted early resumption of secret Vietnam talks. Some newspapers on Tuesday described his welcome in Moscow as "cool."

Left-center Frankfurter Rundschau wondered if a compromise on Vietnam was in the making and declared that the Nixon Administration must take the initiative in this regard because "its strategy in Indochina has collapsed, North Vietnam is far from defeated, and election day is drawing near." It concluded: "Perhaps Nixon and Kissinger, acting behind a smokescreen, are establishing contacts which will compel even Thieu to take an unusual step. But so long as secret diplomacy obscures events, skepticism is in order."

West Berlin's independent Tagesspiegel commented that the "crisis centers" of the Middle East and Vietnam were threatening SALT and armaments control, but drew hope for solutions "from the clear efforts of both sides to localize the conflicts." The paper also considered "U. S. -Soviet crisis management" to have been successful so far in the Berlin issue and believed dropping the linkage between a European security conference and MBFR, "which Paris did not like anyway," to be advantageous.

PARIS

An AFP dispatch from Peking on Tuesday said that Le Duc Tho "confided to certain people" during his Peking visit that he would meet with Mr. Kissinger "in a few days." It said his remark came at the time of the issuance of the PRG statement of September 11, which "Peking diplomatic circles consider important."

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Correspondent Robert LaConte reported from Moscow in moderate conservative *Figaro* on Tuesday that the Russians, though "worried by the undermining work of certain American and European 'reactionary' circles, have nonetheless detected a definitely positive impulse on the part of the Nixon Administration. The latter is of course preparing for elections; but the U.S. President, who shows the mailed fist on Kissinger's advice, now seems willing to carry on a dialogue with the USSR, sincerely and on an equal footing. A wind of peace is blowing between the Big Two...."

LaConte said that "Soviet 'contacts' are striving to explain to observers that a new Yalta, a new division of the world between the Big Two, is completely out of the question, but that what is intended is the establishment of 'an international order' that should satisfy all the countries of the world and consolidate world peace... Mr. Kissinger has not come here solely to facilitate the election campaign of his boss... but because it has at last been realized in Washington that the present leaders of the USSR need this dialogue with America."

A writer in moderate-left *France-Soir* read significance into the fact that the new formulation of PRG conditions, while containing nothing essentially new, was "formulated in more conciliatory terms than in the past and, above all, was issued at the very moment when Mr. Kissinger arrived in Moscow." The writer said that "the importance of Mr. Kissinger's visit to Moscow stems from the fact that, in all likelihood, it is the last occasion for Moscow and Washington to have conversations at so high a level before the American Presidential elections. If Mr. Nixon intends to make a last attempt to settle the Vietnam problem with Soviet help, now is the time."

## ITALY

Italian media on Tuesday speculated variously on Mr. Kissinger's purpose in going to Moscow. Influential left-of-center *La Stampa* of Turin asserted that his "main objective is Soviet mediation on Vietnam, in view of the November election." According to Rome's independent *Il Messaggero*, "Kissinger's basic aims are the second phase of the SALT negotiations... and postponement of the preliminary meetings concerning the European security conference."

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A Tuesday morning news report on the state-run RAI radio network said the "main theme [in Moscow] should be Vietnam, particularly in light of the latest Viet Cong proposals." The radio also asserted that a White House spokesman had "let it be understood that within the week there may be a meeting between Kissinger and Le Duc Tho."

VIENNA

Independent Kurier noted in an editorial on Tuesday that Le Duc Tho had recently conferred with Chinese and Soviet leaders, and that Mr. Kissinger had met with President Thieu and would discuss Vietnam with Soviet leaders. It concluded: "Kissinger's trip to Moscow, especially, shows that the prospects are fair...that the tacit agreement of the big powers is beginning to work." It added, however: "Despite these favorable signs and despite the basic interest of all parties in a peaceful settlement, no one dares yet speak of a real breakthrough. Too many similar advances have petered out, and the hope of a 'Vietnam miracle' has too often been dashed."

PEKING, HANOI

No mention.

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dness of the titles" used by
the Vietcong which calls itself
the Provisional Revolutionary
Government of South Viet-
nam.

"It would simplify matters here were you to abandon ridiculous pretenses and accept the fact that the world perceives the Vietcong as the southern branch of Hanoi's war machine—for it is nothing more than that," he asserted.

grams it carries out are mobilization and combat under external orders."

Porter told the North Vietnamese and Vietcong delegations that their military and political efforts have failed in South Vietnam and urged them to discuss President Nixon's May 8 cease-fire proposal.

Mrs. Binh responded that
the American program of Viet-
namization "is going bankrupt

tions as proposed in the Viet-
cong's seven-point peace plan,
he added.

South Vietnam's deputy negotiator, Nguyen Xuan Phong, replacing Ambassador Pham Dang Lam who was said to be indisposed, said the only alternative to Vietnamization was a negotiated peace guaranteeing peaceful coexistence.

The delegations agreed to
meet again next Thursday.

me.

Mrs. Nguyen Thi Binh, the Viet Cong negotiator, complained of Mr. Porter's "fallacious allegations and hollow lies, all seasoned with a provocative tone that has nothing to do with serious negotiations."

As usual, both sides claimed to be trying to get negotiations going on "basic issues" and both said their adversaries were unwilling to "bargain seriously."

WASHINGTON POST - 8 SEPTEMBER 1972 P-21

S. Koreans to Withdraw
All Troops in S. Vietnam

NEW YORK TIMES

8 SEPT. 1972 P-3

U.S. Reports One Killed
In the War During Week

SAIGON, South Vietnam,
Sept. 7 (UP)-One American

Confidential

Foreign Report

Published by The Economist Newspaper Limited,
25 St. James's Street, London, SW1A 1HG
1261 6 September 1972

Contents

Olympic diplomatic hopes blown sky-high

Bonn's deal with the Chinese

New Polish pressures on Brandt

Nixon's reassurances to Europe

Peru sticks to the middle way

Mounting tension in Madagascar

The massacre of the Israelis in Munich threw into disarray elaborate plans to use the Olympic games as a cover for high-level diplomacy in a number of fields. Much of this was openly reported in the daily press – for example, the scheduled visit of President Pompidou, and Mr Heath's talks with Herr Brandt, Herr Barzel and Mr Lynch. But the tragic irony is that the terrorist outrage blew sky-high the chances of useful exchanges on the future of the Middle East.

One significant visitor to Munich in the past ten days has been **Mr Heykal**, the editor of Al Ahram and Egypt's most influential commentator. He is known to have expressed the desire to talk privately with the Americans and with representatives of other western countries – and in particular to meet **Henry Kissinger**, President Nixon's chief adviser on foreign affairs (though Kissinger, being Jewish, has never personally handled the Middle East question).

The main object of Kissinger's planned private visit was to confer with Herr Brandt and other leading German officials on the question of MBFR (mutual and balanced force reductions) and on the related question of the projected European security conference. Kissinger's intention at the start of the week was to spend three days in Munich, and then fly on to Moscow on Sunday for talks with the Russians. Even before the attack on the Israelis, American security men had the gravest misgivings about his projected trip to the Olympics; there are grounds for believing that the CIA was opposed to it.

The ramifications of this week's affair are likely to reach a long way, but at this stage certain points stand out. Specifically:

(i) **The effect in the Middle East.** The question now is whether the Israelis will over-react. Meanwhile, the Arabs' cause has suffered enormous damage in the eyes of non-Arab opinion. This can be redeemed only by an unequivocal condemnation of the attack by leaders like President Sadat and President Qaddafi.

The majority of visitors to Munich, and the majority of west Germans, were exasperated first with the Africans for forcing a crisis over the participation of the Rhodesians. Now attention is turned to the Arabs (or, more accurately, a small group of Arab extremists). The countries of the third world naturally wanted to use the Olympics to display their sovereignty and their growing importance; they won a tactical political victory over the question of Rhodesia, but they have probably created a good deal of hostility for themselves in the past three weeks.

(ii) **The effect on the west Germans.** In terms of prestige the Black September coup has been a severe blow to the Brandt government. The pains the Germans went to in order to make the Olympics a success were extraordinary. Nearly 24,000 troops or para-military forces have been specially deployed to cope with the logistics; thousands of girls have been employed as hostesses and interpreters; and the courtesy and hospitality of the Bavarians have been overwhelming. On Monday night the unanimous opinion was that the whole affair was a spectacular success. Yet, somehow, on Tuesday morning, the Arab terrorists slipped over the fence. Then followed the bungling of the press relations and the ultimate tragedy—the failure of the west German marksmen to carry out their ambush effectively.

The whole affair is all the more extraordinary because it had been widely rumoured in Munich that the Arabs might attempt an attack; and the Israeli competitors were believed to be specially protected.

In fairness to the Germans, it must be stressed that the whole question of security presented gargantuan problems, which were compounded by the arrival of international statesmen. British officials were uneasy about the security arrangements for Mr Heath and the Americans were similarly anxious about Mr Kissinger's projected visit.

Until about a month or so ago, what the Bonn government feared most was trouble from the Baader-Meinhof gang, who carried out a series of terrorist acts in the spring. According to reliable western sources, the Baader-Meinhof group had plans to do something at the Olympics – but these plans were nipped in the bud by the west German security service, in collaboration with the Americans. There was a sense of relief that one serious threat to the games had been eliminated. But the question of providing adequate security for the Israelis proved insuperable.

How far Tuesday's tragedy will have political consequences within Germany is conjectural. The Christian Democrats may try to make political capital out of it, but by 3 December (the probable date of the election) the Olympics themselves may be forgotten. But for the moment the Brandt government has lost much of the kudos and reflected glory which the Olympics bestowed on it.

A few days ago, leading Social Democrats were saying that the effects of the 'Quick-Schiller affair', had already been expunged by the success of the Olympics; they can hardly claim that today.

(iii) **The effect on intra-German relations.** The Arab attack has also over shadowed the main political side-issue of the Olympics – participation of the east Germans. Probably nobody was more upset by the news than Herr Honecker, who

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— it was reported — was planning to visit Munich himself this week.

The Olympics have been a triumph for the east Germans, both athletically and politically. The apparent warmth with which they have been received by the west Germans has been remarkable; and relations between the east and west German competitors in the village have been cordial. But that is as far as the reconciliation goes. The 1,000-odd east German visitors who came to Munich by special train have refused to mix with the other spectators, and have lived en masse in a village on the Austrian border, under tight surveillance from their own security police.

There has been no attempt on their part to reciprocate the goodwill gestures shown by their hosts. The west Germans have cheered whenever an east German won, but the east Germans have seldom applauded a victorious west German. Several days of this kind of thing has made many west Germans feel that Ostpolitik is still very much a one-way affair.

Nevertheless, on balance, Herr Brandt is right in claiming that the warm reception given to the east Germans indicates that in principle Ostpolitik is accepted by most west Germans.

In the diplomatic in-fighting one or two points were, however, won by the west. For example, heavy pressure was exerted by the Russians to make Radio Free Europe, which is based in Munich, curtail its programmes for the duration of the games. This was stoutly resisted by the chiefs of RFE and its programmes are going out all over Europe, as scheduled.

**RHODESIA FOOTNOTE.**—The Rhodesian rumpus reverberates. Threats have been put out from Salisbury that the Smith government, possibly in conjunction with the Rhodesian Olympic Committee, may sue the International Olympic Committee to recoup the financial loss incurred in sending the Rhodesian team to Munich in good faith and bringing it back again. Whether this will be implemented remains to be seen; but lawyers in Rhodesia are examining the question.

## Bonn's deal with the Chinese

The Bonn government's overtures to China are being watched with considerable suspicion by the Russians. Herr Scheel, the foreign minister, has said he expects to visit China, probably in October, to formalise the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. He has been described as 'behaving rather like a motorist trying to get into a one-way street from the wrong end under the eyes of the police'.

West Germany and Luxemburg are the only members of the Ten (the enlarged European Economic Community) that do not yet have diplomatic relations with Peking. Nevertheless, west Germany has become the leading trading partner of China among the western nations – and without even a trade treaty or indeed anything in writing.

With the establishment of formal relations trade will doubtless be stepped up – but that is not the main reason why Peking is wooing Herr Brandt. The Chinese reckon that the enlarged European community will be a counterweight in the west to the Soviet Union; and they see Germany as the economic leader of the community. In all this, Peking's thinking tallies with President Nixon's views on a new world power balance. But China's tactics do not fit in exactly with Herr Brandt's plans, particularly with regard to timing.

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Herr Brandt first wants to complete the process of normalising west Germany's relations with its east European neighbours; and above all to straighten out the tangled question of finding a modus vivendi with the east German regime. His hand was forced, however, by Chou En-lai's invitation earlier this summer to Herr Schröder, the chairman of the parliamentary foreign affairs committee in Bonn, to spend 16 days in China as an official guest. Schröder, the Christian Democrats' shadow foreign minister, came back to Bonn gleefully waving an agreement that he had signed with the Chinese, to the effect that there were no obstacles in the way of establishing full diplomatic relations between west Germany and China.

The Brandt-Scheel coalition, limping towards premature elections which could well end its fragile tenure of power, therefore cannot afford, for internal political reasons, to wait any longer. Negotiations are being conducted in the closest secrecy through the Chinese embassy in Paris. Chou En-lai is reported to be so eager for a quick consummation of the deal that he has said there is no need for clauses or conditions. His attitude is very different from that of the Poles. (See article below.)

With China moving fast to put its relations with the United States, Japan and western Europe on a new and less unfriendly basis, the European security conference assumes increasing importance for the Russians. Security, in the Russians' eyes, means weakening western Europe's strategic cohesion, so that the Soviet Union has a quiet front in the west plus a freer hand to deal with China.

The Chinese, on the other hand, would not be displeased if western Europe became a counterweight to the Russians. In all the preliminary parleying about the security conference, the Chinese factor needs to be taken into account.

## New Polish pressures on Brandt

The west German government professes to be confident that relations with Poland will duly be normalised, in accordance with the recently ratified treaty. Nevertheless, the visit later this month of Mr Stefan Olszowski, the Polish foreign minister, is being viewed in Bonn with some apprehension. If Olszowski should decide to present new 'conditions', these could be politically embarrassing for Herr Brandt, even though in principle Ostpolitik is accepted by most west Germans.

The Poles have been under Soviet pressure to take a lower place in the queue, as it were, in their dealings with the Brandt government. At the conference of communist leaders in the Crimea at the end of July, Mr Gierek was told not to establish full diplomatic relations with west Germany until the Bonn government had first improved its relations with east Germany and Czechoslovakia.

From west Germany's standpoint the central question is the repatriation of the ethnic Germans in Poland. But this is a subject on which the Poles have been noticeably silent – even to the point of ignoring an official note from Herr Scheel, the west German foreign minister. More than 30,000 ethnic Germans have left Poland and resettled in west Germany since December, 1970, but there has been a sharp drop in the number of permits issued recently.

High among Mr Olszowski's priorities is the question of compensation for some 5,700 female victims of Nazi medical experiments in Ravensbrück concentration camp; the Poles are insisting that this must be settled before diplomatic relations can be established. Mr Jaroszewicz, the Polish prime minister, has also mentioned a broader range of compensation 'to victims of nazism'; some Bonn politicians see this as a

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euphemism for extensive reparations claims, explicitly excluded by the Warsaw treaty.
It is also significant that Jaroszewicz recently cited relations with France as the

It is also significant that Jaroszewicz recently cited relations with France as the pattern for future co-operation with the west Germans. Trybuna Ludu, the main party paper in Poland, recently stressed the importance of co-operation with France, Scandinavia 'and other countries' - but did not mention west Germany.
The new Polish demands, when

The new Polish demands, when considered in conjunction with other communist tactics towards west Germany, suggest that there is a co-ordinated attempt to exert pressure on the Brandt government, particularly in any matters that might have a bearing on the projected European security conference. While busily looking for embassy premises near Bonn, the Poles are insisting that there is a world of difference between 'normalisation' and 'reconciliation' with the west Germans. Fearing that the Christian Democrats may be in office by the end of the year, the Poles are anxious to extract whatever concessions they can from Herr Brandt while he is still in office.

The new defence budget that **President Nixon** will send to Congress in January will rule out any significant reductions in American military forces in Europe before mid-1974 at the earliest.

Officials in the defence department who have given reporters a

Officials in the defence department who have given reporters a general outline of this part of the budget - by law, the President is required to submit a final budget whether he is re-elected or not - say there is one important caveat on the question of American forces in Europe. The budget will make it clear that Mr Nixon reserves the right to change his decision, if agreement should be reached on mutual and balanced force reductions (MBFR) by Nato and the Warsaw pact nations. But most observers believe that a meaningful deal on MBFR is still a long way off.
The issue of reducing the military commitment to

The issue of reducing the military commitment to Nato is increasingly becoming one of the foreign policy areas in which Mr Nixon believes he can draw a clear contrast between his position and that of Senator McGovern. Mr Nixon wants the election to offer Americans the clearest political choice in this century. Mr McGovern has proposed the unilateral withdrawal of 170,000 of the 305,000-man American garrison in Europe. He argues that the American forces can safely be cut by more than half 'because of the capability for rapid redeployment in the case of attack or ominous enemy buildup'.
A report just issued by a special congressional committee on Nato has

A report just issued by a special congressional committee on Nato has estimated the cost of maintaining the American garrison to be about $4 billion a year. But it would cost almost twice that amount to withdraw around 170,000 troops from Europe and to acquire the transport planes and ships to send them back in an emergency. Mr Nixon is naturally making the most of the argument that Mr McGovern's proposals are undermining allied confidence in the United States. The whole question of America's commitment to Europe was one of the questions which Mr Kissinger hoped to discuss with Herr Brandt, at the end of this week, during his projected 'private' visit to Munich.
(See page 1.)

Politically, the stakes are high for Mr Nixon in all this. He is trying to convince middle-of-the-road Democrats and independent voters that Mr McGovern's foreign policy is dangerous. The Republican campaign managers reckon, however, that Mr Nixon will be doing well if 15 to 20 per cent of the Democratic voters switch their votes. The Republicans hope to offset this by winning 70 to 80 per cent of the independent vote.

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Peru sticks to the middle way

Despite its economic troubles, **General Juan Velasco's** military government in Peru feels confident that it can increasingly take political initiatives in Latin America. The Velasco regime has given the country reasonably stable administration for the past few years, even though it sometimes has to rely on the tough and well-armed Guardia Civil (as happened recently when disturbances broke out in the southern town of Puno, during a visit by the president's wife).

At the moment the ruling generals hope to obtain credits and investments from as many countries as possible - on the Peruvians' own terms. These are that foreign companies work as contractors and not as concessionaires, and that 51 per cent of the shares of any new private firm should be in Peruvian hands.

For business reasons Peru wants to avoid alignment with any great power, and is continuing to advertise its dissociation from the United States. Thus recognition of Cuba, which looked like a calculated snub to the United States, was quickly followed by a Peruvian offer to sell the Cubans an undisclosed number of 600-ton fishing boats. More recently £1½m. worth of fish oil was sold to China. By such transactions the minister of fisheries, General Javier Tantaleán, keeps the coffers from being too seriously depleted by grandiose measures of social reform.

At the same time the apparent contradictions in Peru's policy are causing misgivings in other Latin American countries. The slogan 'neither capitalist nor communist' is beginning to look threadbare. More significant is the growing influence of Sinamos (the Movement for the Support of Social Mobilisation), which under **General Leonidas Rodriguez Figueroa** has become the most powerful instrument of social change in the country. It is now involved in almost every aspect of national life, from the conduct of elections in the sugar co-operatives to provision of basic amenities in the shanty-towns.

General Rodriguez aims to gain general backing for his ambitious reform programme. With control of eight bureaus which until this year were directly responsible to the president, Sinamos is possibly the most powerful organisation in the country. Rodriguez is regarded as loyal to President Velasco; but his deputy, Carlos Delgado, is a former left-wing member of Apra (the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance). On his staff are other left-wingers such as Hugo Neira and Hector Bejar. It is even said that Hugo Blanco, who led the rebellion of landless peasants in La Convención in 1963, and who is now seeking re-admittance to Peru, will find a position in Sinamos if he returns. Because of its extensive organisation, its hostility to previous civilian regimes, and its intolerance of criticism or opposition, many people fear that Sinamos could become an instrument of repression.

Paradoxically, what may help Peru to keep on a middle course is the wide variety of personalities and ideas within the military coalition. This causes tensions, but also helps to provide a political balance. The prime minister, General Ernesto Montagne, periodically goes to the Walter Reed hospital in Maryland for medical check-ups, and some of his colleagues frequently tour eastern European countries.

The head of COAP (the special Advisory Council to the President), General José Graham Hurtado, is the leading ideologist in the armed forces, but the army's chief of staff (and the man in line to succeed the president), **General Edgardo Mercado Jarrin**, is the chief architect of Peru's non-aligned foreign policy - which was initiated while he was foreign minister. If and when President Velasco steps down, Mercado can

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be expected to follow a similar moderate line between the more conservative and the
more radical groups within the government.

The increasing privileges being enjoyed by the officer class and their wives are
tending to give the Peruvian 'revolutionary process' a bourgeois tinge. This may counter-
act the more demagogic propensities within Sinamos.

But in their bid to be the pace-setters in Latin American politics, particularly in
relation to the United States, the Peruvians continue to stir anxieties, not least in
Washington. The minister of fisheries was recently obliged to deny that the vast
fishing port complex at Paita could be used as a Soviet submarine base within missile
range of the Panama canal. The arrival in Lima of three New China News Agency
correspondents, previously expelled from Mexico for interfering in that country's
internal affairs, has not helped Peru's relations with its more nervous right-wing
neighbours.

But the Peruvians are alive to the leftist threat, and their intelligence agents, many of
them CIA trained, may prove a fairly effective counter to maoist or Soviet subversion.
Although relations between Peru and the United States have cooled since 1968, the
influence of the CIA is still significant.

On 29 August Madagascar's new government imposed martial law and a state of siege. According to the official statement, the basic reason was economic: if Madagascar was to achieve economic recovery, a 'calm atmosphere' was needed.

This explanation caused some surprise. There had been no incidents for about a
month. However, since early August, large numbers of the security forces had been
seen in Tananarive day and night. On 1 September General Gabriel Ramanantsoa,
the new prime minister, announced that a referendum would be held on 8 October,
when the people would be asked to approve his plan to rule the island for five years with
his 'government of national unity'. This, he said, would provide time to transform the
economy and public life in accordance with the wishes of the population, and to
prepare a constitution - to be ratified by another referendum - that would meet the
island's economic, social and cultural needs. Instead of a parliament there would be a
'popular national development council', which would be representative of all aspects of
national life.

General Ramanantsoa's government came into being last May, apparently with
widespread acclaim, after a violent upheaval. During the four months of its existence it
has implemented a number of popular measures: for instance, it replaced the university's
French rector with a Malagasy one. (French domination of the island's academic and
cultural life was one of the main causes of the student demonstrations which sparked off
the May upheaval.) Since President Tsiranana's Social Democratic Party (PSD), which
had ruled until May, is unlikely to oppose the General's administration - Tsiranana
is still president, though now only a figurehead - and since the former opposition
parties have already promised Ramanantsoa their support, it is at first glance difficult
to see why it was necessary to impose martial law in preparation for the referendum.

However, the general's move may be explained by the activities of a new movement,
the KIM (the initials of the words Joint Action Committee in the Malagasy language).
This movement claims to represent the allied groups of students, workers, peasants

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and unemployed that brought down the Tsiranana government on 13 May. The strength of the KIM became evident soon after its formation when it stated its opposition to the PSD's plan to hold its party conference in the capital. The PSD reacted, rather surprisingly, by publicly admitting that it had cancelled its Tananarive meeting because of public opposition, and that its congress would take place elsewhere.

This week at least 10,000 KIM delegates from all parts of the island were due to assemble in Tananarive to discuss their political and economic programme; and their activities could interfere with the referendum plans. The subjects on the agenda of the KIM meeting include the framing of a new constitution, regardless of the government's plans; the revision of all the co-operation agreements with the French; the removal of foreign military bases (in particular the French naval base in Diégo-Suarez and the American satellite tracking station on the island); progressive removal of both national and foreign capitalism; and the establishment of a government 'which will work in the interests of the ordinary people, the workers and peasants'.

The KIM's apparent strength could become a significant factor in the strategy of the Indian Ocean. The undoubted decline in Madagascar's economy in recent months has been partly due to the withdrawal of the South African aid, trade and investment which had been welcomed by the Tsiranana regime. The extent to which the people of the island had resented these links with Pretoria was indicated in a recent statement by Ramanantsoa's foreign minister, who said on 1 September, while visiting Tanzania, that his government rejected any suggestion of 'dialogue' with South Africa.

But Ramanantsoa himself is in no way radical. He enjoys the confidence of the French, and he went out of his way, after gaining power, to emphasise that Madagascar appreciated the benefits it had derived from French aid and experience. In view of the conspicuous amount of military co-operation between France and South Africa it has been suggested that the new Madagascar government's international stance has been adopted in response to popular pressure. There is likewise reason to believe that Madagascar, which still recognises the Taiwan government, will soon enter into diplomatic relations with the Peking regime. This could be significant in view of western uneasiness about Chinese penetration of east Africa, through Tanzania.

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