DEC 4 1968

[LC]

HEARST NEWSPAPERS

HEARST HEADLINE SERVICE
690 MILLS BUILDING
1700 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE
WASHINGTON, D. C. 20006

TELEPHONE
CODE 202 - 659-2560

December 2, 1968

Dear Henry,

Congratulations---I think. You really have your work cut out for yourself this time. But, than, the opportunity you have also is extraordinary and, if things go well as I hope they will, your rewards will be great.

If there is anything at all I can do for you to help you in the complicated business of getting settled here, I hope you will call me.

The thought just occurred to me that your appointment will end those wonderful trips to Paris, Moscow, Bonn and even your frequent trips to New York. The restaurants, ballet, symphony, theatre and, come to think of it, even the discoteques here are not up to your standards. On the other hand, you have never had 2,000 national press to court you and most anxious to fill out your free time. You'll love it.

SERVICING:

Albany Times-Union
Albany Knickerbocker News

Baltimore News American
Boston Record American and Sunday Advertiser
Los Angeles Herald-Examiner

San Antonio Light
San Francisco Examiner
Seattle Post-Intelligencer

DEC 19 1968

BRANDEIS UNIVERSITY

WALTHAM, MASSACHUSETTS 02154

DEPARTMENT OF POLITICS

December 17, 1968

Professor Henry Kissinger
Center for International Affairs
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138

Dear Henry,

This is to extend to you belatedly my warmest congratulations for
the position you are going to hold, I hope for many years to come.
Normally I hate to see an academician go into the wilderness, unless I
know he can put some order into it. I hope that you will manage to do
it.

If I can be of any help to you in any way, especially if de Gaulle
dies and Papandreou is about to go back to Greece, you can please count
on me.

With warmest wishes for the season,

RCM: jb

WESTERN UNION
TELEGRAM

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The filing time shown in the date line on domestic telegrams is LOCAL TIME at point of origin. Time of receipt is LOCAL TIME at point of destination

703P EST DEC 03 68 BB180
B CDD586 VIA RCA ZCZC WUB0568 RDF0778
URNX HL FRPA 016
PARIS TELEPHONE DE 92 SAINT CLOUD 16 3 2332
LT

DEC 4 1968

PROFESSEUR HENRI KISSINGER 6 DIVINITY AVENUE CAMBRIDGEMASSACHUSETTS
PLUSQUE JAMAIS POURRAIENT EGAL POQRONS AFFECTUEUSEMENT
HERBERT MARCOVITCH
COL LT

SF1201(R2-65)

DEC 30 1968

DEC 30 1968

Brussels 26 December 1968

[LC]

My dear Kissinger,

I heard with great pleasure about your designation as
advisor of the new President of the United States and I take the
opportunity of this time of "souhaits" to congratulate you and
to wish you a great success in your important mission.

As Europeans we are very glad to find in your position
a personality having such a good knowledge and understanding of
the European problems. I think that we will live in the coming
years a crucial time in the relations between the Soviets and
the Western world. Perhaps the evolution on both sides may lead
to a real "rapprochement". But after the "coup dePrague" and ta-
king into account the growing soviet military potential, we can-
not exclude the possibility of a repetition on a bigger scale
with all the consequence for the future of Europe.

At this point of view the firmness of the U.S. policy
is of course vital and we know that with your presence so closed
to the President the policy of the Western world is in good hands.

Although I do not expect to meet you at the next meetings
of the I.S.S., I hope to see you soon either in Europe or in
Washington where I will probably spend a few days in October 1969.

With warm regards.

Général e.r. Baron del Marmol
192 avenue de Tervueren, Bruxelles 15

DEC 9 1968

[LC]

TIME-LIFE

News Service

TIME-LIFE PRESS AGENCY
No. 7, HAN THUYEN, SAIGON

TELEPHONES { 91.074
91.455

TELEGRAMS : TIMEINC. SAIGON

December 4, 1968

Dear Professor Kissinger,

Congratulations and best wishes on your recent appointment.

This will be a great loss for the Boston bureau of Time,
but a gain for the nation.

As you may have gathered from the letterhead I am no longer
Time's Boston brain picker. Have been wallowing in the Vietnam
morass for five months. You have your work cut out for you.

William F. Marmon, Jr.
Correspondent

DEC 12 1968

[LC]

Tokyo, December 7, 1968

Prof. Henry A. Kissinger
6 Divinity Avenue
Cambridge, Massachusetts
U.S.

Dear DR Kissinger,

I am very proud to read this week in the dailies here that
you are appointed as Assistant to the President-elect for
national security affairs.

May I congratulate you on that appointment and hope you will
meet with a great success in this difficult and honorable job.

And herewith I wish you on a merry Christmas and a happy New
Year.

With kind regards,

Anas Ma'ruf
No. 5-18, 5 Chome,
Daisawa, Setagaya-ku,
Tokyo - Japan.

Tokyo - Japan.
Deraawa, Betsuya-ku,
No. 2-18, 2 Chome,
Ansa Me, rnt

With kind regards,

And here with I wish you on a very happy New
year with a great success in this difficult and honorable job.
May I congratulate you on that appointment and hope you will
meet with a great success in this difficult and honorable job.
And here with I wish you on a very happy New
year.

U.S.
Cambridge, Massachusetts
6 Trinity Avenue
Prof. Henry V. Kraeger

Tokyo, December 5, 1968

DEC 15 1968 [RE]

DEC 9 1968

Cable: Ewaffairs

Education and World Affairs 522 Fifth Avenue, New York, N. Y. 10036 TN 7-9450

William W. Marvel, President

December 6, 1968

Professor Henry Kissinger
Department of Government
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts

Dear Henry:

Warm congratulations on your appointment! This move by the President-elect has rightfully been greeted with enthusiasm in all quarters I know about.

I would welcome the opportunity to talk with you sometime in the next couple of weeks before you go to Washington if you could find the time. I would be glad to come up to Cambridge or to see you in New York -- whichever was more convenient.

Our paths not having crossed since EWA was started up six years ago, there are several matters I would like to talk to you about in view of your important new responsibilities in Washington. We have been involved in a variety of ways during the years of the Johnson administration with the field of international education and academic community relations. I am particularly concerned about the situation in this area because of considerations and fixed states of mind such as those reflected in Joe Kraft's piece in the *Washington Post* yesterday. This problem of the "impatience," as Kraft calls it, of the intellectual community with the new administration is perhaps not unexpected but terribly troublesome. It is something on which many individuals and groups will have to work in the next few years, but it is also an area on which you can have an enormous positive influence. That is why I would appreciate an opportunity to talk to you about it soon.

Trustees

Vincent M. Barnett Jr.

Harrison Brown

Ellsworth Bunker

John W. Gardner

T. Keith Glennon

Robert F. Goheen

John A. Hannah

Grayson L. Kirk

Douglas M. Knight

David E. Lilienthal

Sol M. Linowitz

William W. Marvel

Edward S. Mason

Frank McCulloch

Robert S. McNamara

Herman B Wells

Logan Wilson

DEC 10 1968

[LC]

7 December 1968

Dear Dr. Kissinger

Congratulations on your appointment as Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs. I have been a fan of yours since War Collage days at Carlisle when your book "Nucler Weapons and Foreign Policy" was the main topic of conversation. I have also read your subsequent books and articles and attended several lectures given by you with great interest. During 1962 - 1964 I was Military Assistant and speech writer for the Chairman JCS working both for General Lemnitzer and General Taylor. During this period I had a chance to observe the virtual dismantling of the National Security Council system and the "substitution of a more pragmatic approach". During November 1962, due to my experience in India - first as a student at the Indian Defense Service Staff College, followed by a year as a UN observer in Kashmir I was selected as a member of the Harriman mission to India. As a result of these experiances with a "pragmatic approach" I am now looking forward with keen interest to see what steps are taken to move from the Democratic regime's "Kitchen Cabinet" method of handling national security problems back to a more "orderly" National Security Council approach.

We here in Iran were pleased with the president elect's concern over conditions in the Middle East and Governor Scranton's visit. It highlights the importance of an area of great strategic importance to our nation.

All best wishes for great success in one of the most important positions in our country.

Harry A. Kissinger
Harvard University
Cambridge, Mass. 02138

WESTERN UNION
TELEGRAM

®

10 15P EST DEC 02 68 BA346 CTA571

CT LLA379 PDB TDCT PETERSBURG VIR 2 954P EST
DR HENRY KISSINGER (DLY 75)

DEC 3 1968

6 DIVINITY HARVARD UNIVERSITY CAMBRIDGE MASS

CONGRATULATIONS ON YOUR APPOINTMENT AS ADVISOR ON NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS TO PRESIDENT ELECT NIXON. WE WISH YOU SUCCESS AND PRAY GOD WILL BLESS AND SUSTAIN YOU IN THE PERFORMANCE OF YOUR MISSION, DURING THIS CRITICAL PERIOD IN OUR NATIONS HISTORY RICHARD AND MARGARETTA MC DEVITT (1009).

SF1201(R2-65)

CLASS OF SERVICE

This is a fast message unless its deferred character is indicated by the proper symbol.

WESTERN UNION

W. P. MARSHALL
CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD

TELEGRAM

R. W. McFALL
PRESIDENT

@

The filing time shown in the date line on domestic telegrams is LOCAL TIME at point of origin. Time of receipt is LOCAI

SYMBOLS

DL = Day Letter

NL = Night Letter

of destination

(1037)°

BA025 EE

B NBO40 PDB 8 EXTRA=NEW YORK NY 3 1028A EST=
DR HENRY A KISSINGER, DLY 75=
419 BEACON ST BSN=

DEC 5 1968

MY HEARTFELT CONGRATULATIONS ON YOUR APPOINTMENT IT SAYS
TO ME OUR NEW MAN REALLY WANTS TO TRY TO SOLVE THE TOUGH
PROBLEMS IF I CAN EVER BE OF ANY HELP, CALL=
MYRON C MC DONALD EXECUTIVE VICE PRES
LA ROCHE MC CAFFREY AND MC CALL (EX JACK
TINKER AND PARTNER)=

WU1201 (R2-65)

THE COMPANY WILL APPRECIATE SUGGESTIONS FROM ITS PATRONS CONCERNING ITS SERVICE

JAN 2 1969

UNITED NATIONS ASSOCIATION of the UNITED STATES of AMERICA

Chairman of the Board
The Honorable Arthur J. Goldberg

President
Robert S. Benjamin
Chairman of the Board
United Artists Corporation

Chairman, Executive Committee
Oscar A. De Lima
Chairman of the Board
Roger Smith Hotels Inc.

Secretary
Miss Anna Lord Strauss
New York, N. Y.

Treasurer
Andrew P. Maloney
Vice President
Bankers Trust Company

UNA

USA

833 UNITED NATIONS PLAZA, NEW YORK, NEW YORK 10017

Cable Address UNASAMER

(212) OXford 7-3232

Honorary Chairmen
The Honorable Harry S Truman
The Honorable Dwight D. Eisenhower
The Honorable Ralph J. Bunche
The Honorable Paul G. Hoffman

Honorary President
Herman W. Steinkraus

National Chairman, UN Day
Leonard F. McCollum
Chairman of the Board
Continental Oil Company

Executive Vice President
Porter McKeever

December 30, 1968

Dr. Henry A. Kissinger
Center for International Affairs
Harvard University
6 Divinity Avenue
Cambridge, Massachusetts

Dear Henry:

Even two weeks in bed with the Hong Kong flu have not diminished the glow of satisfaction that came with the news of your appointment. (If Mao would agree to keep this strain on the Mainland, I'd urge immediate recognition!)

All the people the President-elect has appointed whom I know personally -- you, Bill Rogers, Charlie Yost, George Shultz -- are men of such high quality that I find myself facing the next four years with unexpected equanimity. Because I think they may be years of historic opportunity in foreign policy, I am particularly grateful that you will be playing such a major role.

I do hope that we at UNA-USA can be of help to you in the months ahead. I am particularly pleased that our next two Policy Panels deal with questions that are so high on your agenda, but I hope this is only the beginning of the service we can perform.

But this letter was not intended to beat the drum for UNA-USA; rather, it is to let you know that the drums of joy have been beating at the McKeever household ever since the news of your appointment came in.

PMcK:be

# Senate Atlantic Union Bill
## Gets Lucky Federal Number:
### S. Con. Res. 13

The ATLANTIC UNION Delegation resolution was re-introduced in the Senate March 1; it drew the "lucky number" in the history of Freedom, Union and the United States—the number of the Original States.

They began their existence by proclaiming in the Declaration of Independence the revolutionary free principle that the citizens rather than their states were sovereign. They next assured their liberties by sacrificing the sovereignty of their states to unite their sovereign citizens in the world's original Federal Union Constitution, drafted in the Philadelphia of 1787.

The Atlantic Union bill would call another Federal Convention. It's purpose would be to explore the possibilities of agreement to start transforming the NATO alliance into an Atlantic "Federal Union."

When it reached the Clerk of the Senate, he noted routinely the number of Concurrent Resolutions already introduced in this the 90th Congress. He found there were 12 and so, routinely, he baptized this bill: "S. Con. Res. 13." Thus it got the number with which the 50 stars in the "Star Spangled Banner" began, as well as its 13 stripes.

It was introduced by the same two Senators who fathered it in the 89th Congress in October 1965—Eugene McCarthy (D., Minn.) and Frank Carlson (R., Kans.)—both members of the Foreign Relations Committee to which it was again referred. The text (see following page) is virtually the same as their previous S. Con. Res. 64. The only changes are minor ones, mainly in the preamble, which follow the text introduced in 1965, and again this year (H. Con. Res. 48) by Rep. Clement Zablocki (D., Wis.), No. 2 Majority Member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

The differences between the two were brought out in the March *Freedom & Union* report* on the re-introduction of the proposal in the House in February. House rules require each cosponsor to introduce a separate bill, and the Republican initiators of this one—Reps. Paul Findley (Ill.) and Albert Quie

(Minn.) re-introduced their text of 1965 (now respectively H. Con. Res. 232 and 235), which is the same as S. Con. Res. 64.

One reason for this was that it had been endorsed in letters to Rep. Findley last year by Richard Nixon, Barry Goldwater, Governors George Romney, Nelson Rockefeller and William Scranton, and by former President Eisenhower, and by one fourth of the GOP members of the House. The Zablocki text was also endorsed by about one fourth of the House Democrats, for a bipartisan total of 104 members.

Last session 16 Senators—12 Democrats and four Republicans—cosponsored the bill. It was introduced this year by only the two chief sponsors merely because of a change in Senate procedure. They are now inviting others to join them and the names of those who agree will be added next month. It is assumed that they will include the 14 other cosponsors of 1965. Three others had agreed, when we went to press, to join them, namely, William Proxmire (D., Wis.) chairman of the Joint Senate-House Economic Committee, and Republicans John Sherman Cooper (Ky.) and Mark O. Hatfield (Ore.). Still other new cosponsors are expected.

In 1966 the proposal did not get beyond hearings in the Senate in March and in the House in September. The initiators in both Houses now aim at action first in the House. Any bill not enacted in the 2-year life of each Congress must start with hearings in the new Congress. Since the House hearings on this proposal were so recent and by the full Foreign Affairs Committee, the chief sponsors hope to expedite action now by combining those of 1966 with briefer ones soon by a subcommittee. It would probably be the one on "International Organizations and Movements" whose chairman is Dante B. Fascell (D., Fla.). Its 10 members include two initiators of the bill, Donald Fraser (D., Minn.) and Rep. Findley. (More on p. 4)

*Reprints of the texts of both House versions and S. Con. Res. 13 may be had free from our offices requesting them and enclosing a stamped (5¢) self-addressed envelope.

Cosponsors of S. Con. Res. 13 (top to bottom): Senators John Sherman Cooper (R., Ky.), Mark O. Hatfield (R., Ore.), and William Proxmire (D., Wis.).

April 1967

3

[lc]

DEC 9 1968

ALEJANDRO J. MEJIA
ABOGADO

BUENOS AIRES, DECEMBER 3, 1968.

MR.
H. KISSINGER
471 BROADWAY
CAMBRIDGE
MASSACHUSETTS 02138 - USA

DEAR MR. KISSINGER:

THIS IN ONLY TO CONGRATULATE YOU TO BE APPOINTED AS
NIXON'S NATIONAL SECURITY ESPECIAL ADVISOR AS I HAVE
JUST READ IN ARGENTINE NEWSPAPERS.

YOUR APPOINTMENT IS AN EXCELENT DEMOSTRATION HOW THE
FUTURE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES KNOWS TO ELECT
HIS COLLABORATORS AMONG THE MOST REPRESENTATIVES
MEMBERS OF THE INTELLECTUAL AND POLITICAL FIELD AND
SPECIALLY IN YOUR CASE BECAUSE YOU WORKED HARD AND
PATIENTLY FOR THE MUTUAL INTERNATIONAL UNDERSTANDING.

FOR THIS REASON, I WOULD LIKE TO LET YOU KNOW THAT
I AM A VERY GOOD FRIEND, AND ALSO SOME TIME AGO A
PARTNER IN A LAW FIRM, OF THE ACTUAL ARGENTINE EMBASSADOR
IN THE UNITED STATES, MR. EDUARDO ROCA.

IF YOU NEED ANY EXPLANATION OF THE ARGENTINE PARTICULAR
SITUATION TO DAY, I AM SURE HE WOULD BE VERY GRATEFUL
TO DISCUSS WITH YOU ABOUT. I AM WRITING HIM IN THIS
MOMENT ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF YOUR DESIGNATION.

I WILL WRITE YOU SOON TOO IN REPLY TO YOUR LETTER ASKING
PARTICIPANTS OF MY COUNTRY FOR 1969'S INTERNATIONAL
SEMINAR.

DEC 8 1968 [LC]

GERHARD MERZYN

Direktor
Institut für Politik und Wirtschaft
HAUS RISSEN

2 HAMBURG 56
RISSENER LANDSTRASSE 193
TELEFON 81 22 51

3. Dezember 1968

m/k

Sehr geehrter Herr Professor Kissinger!

Mit grosser Freude haben viele Menschen in der Bundesrepublik von Ihrer Ernennung zum Berater des neuen amerikanischen Präsidenten in Fragen der internationalen Sicherheit Kenntnis genommen. Für Sie selbst wird es eine grosse Genugtuung sein, in einer Zeit grosser Wandlungen und Veränderungen immer wieder als Berater der verschiedenen Präsidenten in Wertschätzung Ihrer unabhängigen qualifizierten Meinung um Mitarbeit gebeten zu werden.

Ich selbst erinnere mich mit besonderem Vergnügen an die Wahlnacht der vorletzten Präsidentenwahl 1964, die ich in Ihrem Hause in Boston verbrachte. Seitdem sind wir in einer losen Beziehung geblieben. Wenn Sie trotz Ihrer zunehmenden Belastung wieder einmal in Deutschland sind, würde ich mich sehr über Ihren Besuch in unserem Institut freuen, den wir gern - ganz nach Ihrem Wunsch - zu einem Vortrag beziehungsweise Gespräch vor einem qualifizierten Fachkreis benutzen können.

Vielleicht sind Ihnen trotz der Papierflut ein paar Ergebnisse aus der Arbeit unseres Instituts von Wert. Ich sende Ihnen als eine kleine Auslese das zusammengefasste Protokoll einer Ost-West-Sicherheitskonferenz Anfang September (bei der die Russen im letzten Augenblick dann absagten), einen Bericht meiner fünfwöchigen Reise durch die Sowjetunion im Juni/Juli dieses Jahres sowie das Protokoll eines einwöchigen Seminars unter Leitung von Professor v. Weizsäcker über Wissenschaft, Forschung und Technologie im November. Für irgendwelche besonderen Interessengebiete Ihrerseits haben wir sicherlich auch einiges beizusteuern, andererseits werden Sie eher zu viel als zu wenig Informationen von allen Teilen der Welt haben. Ich denke aber, dass die erwähnten und Ihnen heute übersandten vielleicht für Sie anregend und nützlich sein könnten.

Mit guten Wünschen für Sie persönlich,

Ihr

sehr ergebener

DEC 13 1968

[LC]

301

Washington Street, Columbus, Indiana

(812) 379-5488

December 11, 1968

From Henry

I am so delighted that you have consented to serve the
President in such an important role. He could not have made
a better selection.

The next four years will be exhausting ones for you,
and difficult ones for your family. You will, however, merit
the gratitude of the nation, and have the knowledge that you
are performing a service of the very highest importance.

My best wishes to you.

Professor Henry A. Kissinger
Harvard University
6 Divinity Avenue
Cambridge, Massachusetts

DEC 5 1968

INDUSTRIAL COLLEGE OF THE ARMED FORCES

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20315

ICSC

DEC 1968

Professor Henry Kissinger
CFIA
6 Divinity Avenue
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138

Dear Henry:

There was a very real personal thrill associated with my viewing
you on television last evening. It is gratifying and comforting
to know that you will be advising our next President on defense
for this nation in a world of "friends", enemies and "neutrals".

Our mission for the Industrial College has been accomplished, and
I shall be receiving instructions for a new assignment within the
next few weeks. The work here has been a challenge and interesting.

Inclosed is a copy of our latest effort to explain the use of
simulation through computer time-sharing in an educational
environment. I recall your interest in my definition of "war
games", and thought you would like to see the definitions in this
paper. It also gives some explicit examples of the problems we
encountered here, how we solved them, and what we perceive as
important for future improvement.

Edna joins me in expressing our sincere congratulations on your
important assignment. We both wish you every success.

Incl
as

[L]

CURRENT AND FUTURE USES OF TIME-SHARING IN EDUCATIONAL SIMULATION

THE NEED FOR NEW TOOLS IN MANAGEMENT

Although it has become almost trite to state that technology is
increasing at a phenomenal rate, the reality of that fact is unchal-
lenged and presents today's managers with almost insurmountable tasks
in evaluating the volume of relevant data available in most problem
situations. In addition, managers, both public and military, find
themselves struggling with advanced scientific concepts and changing
technologies. Computers, a product of this new technology, can and
are being used to assist in the evaluation of vast quantities of data
and to enhance the decisionmaking process.

At the Industrial College of the Armed Forces (ICAF), one of two
post-graduate institutions under the aegis of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,¹
it has been decided that there is a place in the educational process for
simulation and the computer. During the past year, ICAF organized a new
Directorate for Simulation and Computers (SIMCOM), which has adapted new
educational methods to ICAF's ten-month curriculum. These innovations
include simulation, computer-assisted instruction, time-sharing termi-
nals, and remote consoles. An integral part of these is the requisite
software (programs which operate the computers).

A prime factor in the adaption of such innovations was student di-
versity, one of the greatest challenges at ICAF. Take a top-flight
engineer with no training in political science, a skilled personnel
officer with only a superficial knowledge of automatic data processing,
a Phi Beta Kappa intelligence officer who never had a course in economics,
an outstanding legal administrator with no background in modern management
procedures, a former test pilot now in a key planning position who never
completed his undergraduate work. Add 175 other selected military of-
ficers and civilian Government executives with skills and background
just as disparate, and you have a typical resident class at the Industrial
College. These students are enrolled at ICAF to learn how to manage the
country's resources for national security. To help the ICAF faculty meet
the student's diversified needs, simulation and time-sharing ADPS (Auto-
matic Data Processing System(s)) were instituted.

DEFINITION OF TERMS FREQUENTLY MISUNDERSTOOD

In order to decrease semantic difficulties, it is always appropriate
to define terms. There are three fundamental terms which deserve mutual

¹The JCS administers the National War College (NWC) and ICAF. Both are located at Fort McNair, Washington, D. c.

[LC]

understanding prior to discussing simulation: model, game, and simulation. In defining these and other terms, the approach will be pragmatic--not to force the reader into the mold of the author, but rather to create an environment for common understanding.

In the context of common understanding, this paper will discuss the why, how, and what of simulation in education, as well as some of the advantages and limitations in the development and use of simulation. Particular emphasis will be placed on the use of simulation in a time-shared environment, again stressing some of the advantages and limitations of such a system.

The first term frequently misunderstood during discussions on simulation is "model". Most of us work with models every day, frequently unaware of the fact that we are doing so. There are three general types of models: two-dimensional, three-dimensional, and descriptive. The last one may be divided into two kinds, mathematical and verbal. A very general definition of a model is: **THE STATIC REPRESENTATION OF RELEVANT REALITY.**²

"Static" is a key word in this definition. It is necessary for a model to "stand still" long enough to be described whether that description be two-dimensional, three-dimensional, mathematical, or verbal. In other words, the "state"³ of reality at any given time lends itself to being modeled.

Examples of two-dimensional "state" or static representations of relevant reality are maps, blue prints, and pictures. Common examples of three-dimensional static representations of reality are mock-ups, wind-tunnel aerodynamic shapes, automobiles, trains, pipelines, and buildings. These may be constructed on almost any scale desired by the user. Einstein's equation for energy (E=MC²) is an example of a mathematical model. Scenarios which describe the opening setting for a "cold war game" are examples of verbally described models.

The three-dimensional model suggests another key word in this definition of model. That word is "relevant". The engineer who places a model airplane in a wind tunnel is not interested in the bombardment system or the communications gear to be associated with the end product;

²Colonel William Thane Minor, Simulation Briefing, ICAF, October 1968.

³For excellent discussion on the "State" of models see *Simulation Using Digital Computers* by Evans, Wallace & Sutherland, Prentice/Hall Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1967.

2

[LC]

they are not relevant to his problem. He is therefore not likely to
place scaled versions of radios or bombing devices in his aerodynamic
model.

During the past decade, "war game" has become a very popular term, with
almost as many meanings as users. It has been used this month by the
news media to describe current NATO exercises. It is frequently used
to describe highly detailed analyses which use operations research and
system analysis techniques for complex target selection, penetration
tactics, and damage assessment. The term "war game" is also applied
to structured efforts involving teams of individuals "brainstorming"
a common problem from different perspectives. None of these "meanings" is
technically incorrect. A definition which can satisfy all "types" of
war games, however, is:

THE PURPOSEFUL DYNAMIC REPRESENTATION OF THE RELEVANT
SEGMENTS OR AGGREGATES, SOMETIMES BOTH, OF MILITARY
REALITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LESS THAN PERFECT INFORMATION. ⁴

This definition becomes applicable to other types of games through
the substitution of an appropriate designator for the word "military";
e.g., business (games), industry, international affairs, urban expansion,
economic, diplomacy, etc.

Several key words in the definition are: purposeful, dynamic,
relevant, segments, aggregates, and imperfect information.

For a game of any type to be effective, there must be an objective,
or reason, for examining a representation of reality. Therefore, the
game must have a specific aim--be purposeful.

A game is dynamic in that it represents change over a period of
time. As hypothetical events occur, decisions are made and variables
change. The "state" of the model, at cycle points of game time, may
be examined. One of the assets of gaming, in fact, is the ability to
examine "slices" of reality in a "changing" environment.

The very fact that one examines factors in a fictitious environ-
ment instead of waiting on the real world makes it important that only
the relevancies of that which is under examination be included in the
gaming environment. Managing data and manipulating it in meaningful
ways is difficult at best. It is, therefore, most important to include
in the game only those factors which are preceived as relevant to the
situation--the goals and the perspective of the gaming environment.

⁴Colonel William Thane Minor, Simulation Briefing, ICAF, October 1968.

3

[LC]

Portions of a game may include representative segments of reality while other portions may use aggregation. For example, in a simulated global strategic nuclear exchange, every sortie in a strike plan may be included while the reliability of the aircraft which represents that sortie may be an aggregation of data collected from thousands of sorties flown by aircraft of that specific type--or it may be the aggregation of all the assumed, or calculated, mean-time-to-failure rates for all the systems which make that aircraft operational.

In all games, each team has less-than-perfect intelligence about its opponents. Moreover, this is true even in a "one-sided" game where one may test many theories concerning the "what if" capabilities of a theoretical enemy (opponent).

At the Industrial College, the term "simulation" is used rather than "game". This is primarily because "war" is bad and "games" are sometimes thought of as frivolous. While all (war games are simulations, not all simulations are (war) games. Therefore, simulation may be defined as **THE PURPOSEFUL DYNAMIC REPRESENTATION OF RELEVANT REALITY.**⁵

## WHY SIMULATION?

It is logical to discuss the "why" of simulation before discussing the "how", since the reasons for simulation usually dictate the methods used. There are four primary reasons why simulation can be useful: economy, research, education, and management.

Economy of time, risk, manpower and dollars are key factors which may make simulation useful. In the real world, it may be costly, or even impossible, to wait for feedback resulting from required decisions or for the results from suggested contingencies or selectable alternatives. In simulations, one may develop synthetic circumstances in which decisions relating to contingencies or alternatives may be tested with resulting feedback, over very short periods of time—in other words, the exploring of "what if's".

Decreasing risk, particularly where safety of people and property is concerned, has been a function of simulation for many years. The old Link Trainer is a very good example; it's much safer to "dive" a Link Trainer into the "ground" than it is to misread the altimeter during a descent under actual instrument conditions in a real airplane. Since war is too dangerous to fight, the war game type of simulation takes on extremely important significance, and, without doubt, has made invaluable contributions to the peace of this nation...notwithstanding a minority of current opinions to the contrary.

⁵Ibid.

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The economy of manpower is apparent in simulations where one
individual may represent a group, an organization or a political entity
or where a small group of individuals may represent an entire nation.

Simulations which describe the 'state' or changing 'states' of
reality whether two-dimensional, three-dimensional, verbal or math-
ematical usually cost fewer dollars than programs operating within
reality for the same purpose.

In the area of research, simulation has made significant contribu-
tions not as research per se, but as one of the tools of research.
For example, insights into problems not previously foreseen have
resulted from war games, thus contributing both to the research
process and to national security. Among these contributions are:
air and ground alert, dispersal, hardening, mobility, timely actions
on logistic support, manpower requirements, political and diplomatic
actions, and many others.

The third area, education, is one of the most important reasons for
ICAF's interest in simulation. Education is perceived as a triad of
teaching, training, and learning. The last of these descriptors, learning,
is the one receiving major emphasis at the Industrial College. SIMCOM,
through simulations used in the curriculum, has provided a unique
environment which includes competition, problem immersion, decisionmaking,
and rapid feedback. Such an environment produces involvement, interest,
motivation, innovation, and creativity. With the environment and resultant
behavior described, the end result for the participant (learner) should
be easier, more rapid learning (sometimes both), lasting impressions,
less rigid thinking, the ability to develop plans/strategy, and improved
organizational ability.

Several organizations and scholars⁶ have shown that simulation
methods in education teach content as well as the best pedagogical
methods; moreover, they produce involvement and motivation to a higher
degree than anyother educational method.

The fourth area in which simulation has shown promise as a tool is
that of management. Decisionmaking is not only the prerogative of
management; it is a responsibility. For the manager, simulation can
provide useful insights into planning, proposed actions, contingencies,
and alternatives, as well as providing a testing environment. While
simulation can assist in decisionmaking, however, it should never be
considered 'the decisionmaker'.

⁶Snyder, Guetzkow, Herman, Coleman, Targ and The Foreign Policy Association of New York, among others.

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Neither should simulations be considered competitive with scholarly
studies; the two should complement each other. Frequently, one will
cause the manager to realize he needs the other. For example, many
simulations have pointedly shown the need for better study and research
in a specific area. Conversely, many studies have dictated a need to
provide a simulated environment in which different courses of action
can be investigated.

## THE "HOW" OF SIMULATION - THE EVOLUTION OF WAR GAMING

From Sun Tzu's "The Art of War" (400 B.C.) to Weikhmann's "King's Game" (1644) is approximately 2,000 years. During that period, the Chinese (perhaps) and the Indic Civilizations (certainly) gave to the world a "game", later to be called "chess".⁷ Approximately 200 years later, the Prussian Von Reisswitzes (father and son) originated the "Kriegspiel" which led in 1879 to the publication of the first American Kriegspiel, by Livermore. Until the 1930's, few other significant contributions were made to modern war gaming techniques.

In the last four decades, however, three significant factors have
provided the fundamental capability to perform meaningful simulation
in education. They are Von Neuman's game theory,⁸ the introduction
of operations research, and the evolution of digital computers.

As war games have developed over the centuries, they have been
of two general classifications, rigid and free. The rigid games have
been highly formalized, usually mathematical, while the free games
have been of the judgmental type where teams, or individuals, have
made the decisions which indicated the 'flow' of the game. It is this
writer's judgment that a combination of formalized and judgmental
inputs during the simulation provide the most effective learning
environment.

## THE USERS OF SIMULATION

It was stated earlier that the "why" of simulation must precede
the "how" since the goals of simulation have a great influence on
the type of simulation used. The three major segments of this nation
currently using simulation are industry, government, and education.

⁷"Chess" is derived from the Sanskrit term "chaturanga" which means "four" (i.e., elephants, horses, chariots, and infantry).

⁸Later revised with the aid of Oskar Morgenstern. (Note: it is recognized that 'game theory' is based on probability theory which, of course, is much older.)

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Some of the major industrial users are aerospace, automotive, and utility corporations. Personal visits to some of the largest organizations in these categories⁹ indicate use of simulation in mathematical and verbal descriptions (operations research), two dimensions (charting), and three dimensions (scale models and "segments" of production lines).

Users in government include NASA, the armed services, and an increasing number of departments. NASA, without doubt, has the most sophisticated three-dimensional simulators in existence, including spacecraft, such as Apollo, and the lunar module. Moreover, young potential managers are given training at Goddard that includes a management simulation called GREMEX (Goddard Research and Engineering Management Exercise).

All of the armed services use three types of simulations: cold war,¹⁰ limited war and general war. During the past decade, the most used of these have been the general war simulations, which have analyzed the problems of a thermonuclear exchange between major adversaries. In the author's opinion, the most interesting simulations conducted by the armed services are the "cold war" games, which are conducted to surface insights regarding problems of a political, diplomatic, economic, psychological, and military nature in an everyday world environment of "friends", "enemies", and "neutrals". (Note that "cold war" is spelled with lower-case letters, thus denoting total international relations and not the limitations of the so-called US/USSR "rapprochement" in Europe which, more recently, does not appear as much a rapprochement as some had perceived.)

While some government departments have been slow to adapt simulation methods to problem-analysis techniques, new efforts are in the offing. The State Department, for example, is currently experimenting in simulation research with Dr. Shure of System Development Corporation.¹¹

In education, the major users of simulation are civilian universities and military institutions. In universities, the widest use is in business schools, psychology departments, and political science/government departments (especially in the field of international relations). The military educational institutions using simulation include the academies, staff schools, war colleges, and the Industrial College.

⁹ Boeing, Lockheed, and Ford; visited during the past 2 years.

¹⁰Sometimes called "political/military games", "crisis games", "politico-military exercises", etc.

¹¹Letter, 17 October 1968, E. Raymond Platig, Director, Office of External Research, Department of State.

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# THE CHOICE OF SIMULATIONS FOR THE INDUSTRIAL COLLEGE

When ICAF made a decision to enrich its curriculum through the use of simulation and computers, experienced officers in each field were assigned.¹²

With the establishment of SIMCOM, it was determined that simulations must complement the curriculum and that they must make use of automatic data processing systems. There are two reasons for the latter policy: 1) the value to ICAF students of learning the strengths and limitations of computers, and 2) the ability of simulation participants to examine more alternatives in decisionmaking when computers assist in the manipulation of data.

## SIMULATIONS TO COMPLEMENT THE ICAF CURRICULUM

The ICAF curriculum is divided into three major segments: national resources (natural, demographic, and business/industrial), international affairs, and Defense management procedures.

In the 1967/68 curriculum, a decision was made to continue the use of IBM's Business Management Simulation which had been used previously in a batch-processing mode. This simulation met the two criteria; that is, it complemented the curriculum and used automatic data processing. SIMCOM had originally hoped to time-share the model in order that the students could use remote terminals in asking "what-if" type questions prior to final decision inputs for each decision period. That goal could not be accomplished for the fall of 1967; but it has been achieved now, and participants are currently engaged in the activity at ICAF. The simulation began on 21 October and will run through 13 November, decision periods are scheduled no more frequently than every other day.

For the international relations phase of the curriculum, the World Politics Simulation (WPS) was selected. This simulation is an adaption of Professor Harold Guetzkow's Inter-Nation Simulation (INS),¹³ prepared by Professor William C. Coplin at Wayne State University under contract for the State Department. SIMCOM modified WPS, with the help of Dr. Coplin, and introduced it into the curriculum during January 1968.* Again, WPS met the criteria of curriculum orientation and use of computer programs to process data relevant to the simulation.

12 Captain James E. Forrest, USN, ADPS (succeeded by Colonel Lee S. Baumann, USAF) and Colonel W. T. Minor, USAF, Simulation.

13 Guetzkow, Harold, *Simulation in Social Sciences*, Chapter 7 (Prentice-Hall, Inc.: Englewood Cliffs, N. J., 1962).

*The SIMCOM modification of WPS was renamed, WPS II.

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For the DOD portion of the curriculum, TEMPER (Technological, Economic, Military, and Political Evaluation Routine) was carried out, for the final time, in May 1968. While TEMPER made some contribution to the curriculum and certainly used automatic data processing, its alignment with course content was meager and its use of the computer too rigid, leaving little opportunity for the participants to make effective decisions during the TEMPER runs. Therefore, a trial run with 20 students and faculty members was made, concomitantly with the TEMPER runs, using the Program Management Simulation Exercise (PMSE) developed by management consultants Peat, Marwick, and Livingston for the Defense Weapon Systems Management Center.¹⁴ The PMSE exercise was enthusiastically received by the participants and faculty. It has therefore replaced TEMPER in the curriculum and, after receiving SIMCOM modifications, has been renamed the Defense Management Simulation (DMS).

## TO TIME-SHARE OR NOT TO TIME-SHARE

Prior to the establishment of SIMCOM, the accepted idea at ICAF was to install a computer. Fortuitously, in early 1967, the long-awaited time-shared systems were becoming reality. More importantly, they were coming into existence as workable, effective devices and "in a competitive environment." As such; they seemed a viable alternative to computer installation, an alternative promptly explored by SIMCOM and accepted. Major considerations in this decision were cost, versatility, and reliability.

It was obvious that reliability would be an important consideration in all simulations at ICAF. Scheduling is a key factor in the ICAF curriculum. There were schedules during the WPS II-68 simulation that allowed only one and a half hours for the input/output routines between game decision periods. The coded input and printed output required one hour and twenty minutes--leaving little time for computer faults. Through time-sharing, SIMCOM solved this problem by providing back-up capability with other computers and gained reliability through redundancy.

Multiple time-shared systems also provided more versatility, and the cost is less than one percent (1%) per year of the original estimates for installing one average computer at ICAF.¹⁵

¹⁴DWSMC is located at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base and operated under the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Its purpose is to train officers as managers (Project managers) of weapon systems under development.

¹⁵Original estimates for a computer were $2.5 million. Estimates for software, environmental modifications, and personnel were an additional $3 million. SIMCOM leases time from several different time-shared systems for less than $0.1 million per year.

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Time-sharing from commercial systems in a competitive environment has assured SIMCOM of the latest reliable state-of-the-art hardware and software versatility for any requirements extant.¹⁶

## MODIFYING BATCH¹⁷ SIMULATIONS TO TIME-SHARED SYSTEMS

The simulations selected for use in the ICAF curriculum were "on the shelf" (that is, in existence and operational when SIMCOM was organized. The problem to be solved was that of adapting them to the time-shared systems available to ICAF. In order to illustrate this type of problem, some of the procedures used in adapting the WPS will be illustrated.

In selecting the World Politics Simulation (WPS) for inclusion in the ICAF curriculum, a primary consideration was that the model be readily adaptable to ICAF's need. Thus, while minor modifications and elaborations were made, the basic structure of the model was retained.

Of course, the more complete programing of the basic model to operate in a time-shared mode represented a fairly important change. It made feed-back more rapid and gave the simulation greater continuity. For example, when armed conflict broke out between two or more nations, it was possible through time-sharing to have the results of the conflict back to the participants almost immediately.

Another fairly important change arose from the decision to assign the names of actual nations to the teams. Prior to the ICAF runs, fictitious names had been assigned to the nation-teams. The attributes (variables and parameters) characterizing simulated nations were more or less prototypic of general nation types; e.g., economically highly developed democracy, economically underdeveloped autocracy, or economically developed or underdeveloped totalitarian dictatorships. In assigning the names of actual nations to these teams, it was logical to alter and adjust the variables and parameters characterizing them so as to correspond more closely to the attributes of the referent nations and/or to produce results more consonant with the actual operations of these nations.

¹⁶Time-shared systems include GE, IBM, and SDS.

¹⁷"Batch" processing means running one set of programs at a time. Turn-around time may be a few minutes or a few days, usually several hours at best.

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Because of the primary concern for illuminating the problems of formulation and implementation of national policy, some aspects of the model were made more highly structured so as to emphasize governmental decisionmaking. For example, in WPS II each team represented the government of a nation and as such had veto power over any trade arrangement made with another nation. The team members did not, however, negotiate specific trades as they had done in previous versions of WPS. They simply accepted or rejected proposed trades provided by Control. In making this change, the assumption was that actual trades are negotiated by the business and economic leaders within a nation and not by people in the upper policymaking levels of government. To require participants to conduct such negotiations would have been to divert them from those functions of policymaking and execution with which they should have been most concerned.

As with almost any simulation, the WPS II model will always be subject to revision and improvement. There are current efforts in this process; by the time it is used again (February 1969) substantial improvements are anticipated. Of course, it is not suggested that this will be a final product, but it should be a positive step in the process of building an ever more useful simulation.

## COMPUTER CONSIDERATIONS INVOLVED IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF WPS II AT ICAF

Examples of some of the problems involved in converting the WPS computer programs to operate on another system may be instructive.

WPS was originally programed in the "GE Time-Sharing FORTRAN" for the GE 265 system (this language is a version of FORTRAN II). In order to run WPS for four simultaneous "games" within severe time constraints, it was necessary to find a time-sharing facility possessing rapid response and a capacity for large disk files with quick access capability. The GE 605 system at Missile and Space Division, Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, was chosen.

The first step was to convert the original programs to the Valley Forge version of FORTRAN IV. Even though the FORTRAN language comes closer than many other languages to being truly machine-independent, the differences between these two time-sharing versions of the FORTRAN language were surprising and troublesome. Detailed actions taken by SIMCOM were as follows:

a. Statement labels formerly alpha-numeric had to be changed to pure numeric.

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b. The earlier version permitted the programmer to designate any alpha character, as the initial character of any variable, representing either an integer or real number. All variables had to be searched out and made to conform to FORTRAN IV conventions.

c. In the earlier version, the arithmetic "IF" statement did not require three statement numbers; for FORTRAN IV, these had to be assigned and accounted for.

d. Since the 605 compiler would not accept "non-operating statements", all such statements left over from the revision process had to be located and deleted.

e. All input/output statements, the identification of continuation lines and comments, and format statements using continuation lines had to be rewritten.

In view of the above, the simplest course of action was to recode the programs entirely. Further, it was decided to take advantage of the fast response of a time-sharing system to provide immediate results when a "war" occurred, replacing the hand-calculation previously used.

The data base for each nation was quite large, about 1800 computer words (four characters per word). Due to a restriction on the size of individual disk-files in the original system, each nation's data base had been divided into two separate files. This proved to be inefficient and too slow.

Since the 605 system could accommodate larger individual disk-files, each nation's data base was transferred from the 265 disk onto punched paper tape--two tapes for each nation. When an attempt was made to read these tapes into the 605 system, it was discovered that they were completely unacceptable and unreadable, since they were "non-parity" and the 605 system required "parity". The only solution was to write a special program to read in the original tapes and punch out tapes converted to the correct form. This was done on a PDP-8 computer. The problem of joining up each nation's pair of tapes into one file was resolved, but not without difficulty. The listings of each nation's data base had to be laboriously checked and proofed and, as might be expected, corrected.

SIMCOM considers these problems that may reasonably be expected when programs and files are transferred between different systems. Further, the conversion effort was complicated by the fact that the 605 system was relatively new at the time; a certain number of problems can normally be expected under such circumstances.

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In order to produce teletype-printed outputs within the short time allowed, it was necessary to streamline the principal report. The revised program realized a 50 to 60 percent saving in print time. Also, a number of safety features were developed, such as having the computer specify the exact input data required at any specific time, the capability of correcting input data after transmittal to the computer, and a confirmation check of the specific game being run in order to maintain file integrity.

Experience with time-sharing at ICAF has taught one essential fact: If system response must be received within a relatively short period of time, as was the case for the four simultaneous WPS II games, a back-up system is mandatory. For WPS II, this was provided by the GE facility at Syracuse, New York, where the programs and data-base files were loaded on-site prior to the running of the simulation. Following the run of each decision period, the updated files for all games were immediately transferred to punched paper tape, which was then used to create new files at the Syracuse facility. This bit of prudence paid off handsomely. At one point during the run of the second decision period, there were over 50 users on-line in the Valley Forge system at the same time. Three times, a weird BIT-configuration received from an unidentifiable remote terminal caused the system to go down, each time for about fifteen minutes. Each ICAF terminal operator shifted to the Syracuse system as he was affected, and, with a minimum of rerunning, completed the job. None of the simulation participants knew of the difficulty. While the original motivators which influenced SIMCOM's decision for time-sharing were economy, versatility, and reliability serendipity has played its part in this two-year venture.

During this second year, all simulations will allow the participants the prerogative of "communicating" with the model prior to final decisions required at the end of each game period. This may become the most valuable contribution to the learning process, since interaction with the model--that is, adjusting variable values for a given state of the model--can provide learning insights not otherwise produced. While this is not true simulation interaction,¹⁸ it is an effort in that direction. With this type of man/machine interface, it will become possible to have more continuous simulation interaction, a SIMCOM goal.

¹⁸ Harvey A. Shapiro (Carnegie-Mellon University) defines interactive versus non-interactive as follows: "In current terminology, interactive and non-interactive describe the mode of play between a computer and a human. Interactive implies the ability to communicate with the computer at the time that the actual simulation is being processed."

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PROBLEMS ENCOUNTERED AFTER MODEL MODIFICATION TO TIME-SHARING

Solving the problems of model modification for time-sharing was,
at times, the least of SIMCOM's worries. In first-year attempts to
introduce the students to time-sharing and motivate them to use the
remote terminals, efforts were considerably less than successful.
Time sharing was introduced by an instructor to groups of about 15
students. After a non-technical explanation of time sharing, the
terminal operation was demonstrated using a very simple "check list."
Following the second or third demonstration, students were asked to
try the terminal. Not only was there great reluctance, but some students
categorically refused "to demonstrate their lack of knowledge before
their peers." That was the key to the problem.

This year, SIMCOM has installed 15 terminals throughout the ICAF building. There is one in each of the 12 seminar rooms.<sup>19</sup> A COMPUTER TIME-SHARING USER'S MANUAL was designed for non-technical explanation of the time-shared systems available at ICAF; the manual contains a separate check list of operations for each system. A 15 minute briefing on the manual was given to all students prior to distribution of the manuals. One short paragraph in the foreword was emphasized:

> This manual has been prepared to assist you in making use of the time-sharing computer facilities available at the Industrial College... Try it! You cannot hurt the equipment or the computer. If you make a mistake, the worst that can happen is that you will be disconnect-ed. Simply re-dial the number and start over.<sup>20</sup>

For the complete novice, the TUTOR<sup>21</sup> series was suggested. For the sophisticated programer, the manual lists programs available in each system. These include business/accounting, mathematical/statistical,

<sup>19</sup>The 180 students are divided into 12 fifteen-man groups. Each group has a specific seminar room assigned as its base for group activities.

<sup>20</sup>Computer Time-Sharing User's Manual, SIMCOM, ICAF, 1968.

<sup>21</sup>TUTOR is the Philco-Ford series of CAI on BASIC, developed for General Electric.

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