ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL

The shocks that have occurred to the Japanese this year did not cause new problems for us. What they did, though, was to accelerate trends already in evidence. Let me focus for a moment on the problem of the announcement of our China trip. First of all, I must say that the Japanese have the only government in the world that is leakier than ours. It is still true that we cannot find a truly confidential channel with the Japanese. Secondly, let me say that the information that we were going to Peking would have been useless to the Japanese leaders except for the purpose of leaking it. The only use it could have had for Sato would have been to enable him politically to position himself in advance of our China trip. The China announcement probably could have been handled better by us. But the basic trend toward world power for the Japanese was clear long before the trip to China.

The idea that one hears afoot now that the United States is shifting the focus of its attention from Tokyo to Peking is simply silly. The Chinese are our antagonists internationally and we have no illusions about turning them into our friends. Our idea is to maintain a relationship in which Japan is a partner, not as a client. We are in the same position now with the Japanese that we were in the early 1960's with the Europeans. In the economic area, well, I understand Peter Peterson (nodding to Mr. Peterson) will be talking to you tomorrow, and he is far better qualified than I am to address this issue. But we have seen a strange situation in the Pacific. The United States has provided the cost of a military shelter for the Japanese at a time when the Japanese has developed specialized industries and carved out a new co-prosperity sphere economically in Asia. There simply is no reason for our policy fully to support the defense of the Japanese while they engage in a total course toward economic power in the Pacific.

**Question:** From your experience in China, how strong do you think the Chinese are? Would they really be paper tigers if confronted by the Russians?

**Answer:** (Dr. Kissinger) First of all let me say that I really only saw Peking, and my actual knowledge about Chinese military strength results more from information I receive here than from what I saw on my trip. The strength of the Chinese people lies in the discipline of the organization of the nation and in the cultural attraction they provide to neighboring peoples. I have the impression that the Chinese do not think it is strange that a nation could dominate its

ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL

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neighbors by moral superiority. The Russians, on the other hand, give one the impression that they believe they could never dominate other nations in any way save the physical. Regarding Chinese military strength, I think in the next three to five years it is not probable that the Chinese armies would be very effective if they went abroad. If Russia invaded China, though, I think the Russians would find a determined resistance by the Chinese people, and I do not believe the Russians could prevail except with the use of indiscriminate military force. So defensely, I think the Chinese would be rather effective against the Russians; but in the next four or five years, they probably would not be very effective offensively abroad.

**Question:** Doesn't this show, though, that the Chinese had no alternative but to deal with our government as opposed to choosing a revolutionary route to dealing with the American people?

**Answer:** (Dr. Kissinger) Well, the Chinese could have used the method used by the North Vietnamese (and the North Vietnamese are a far weaker nation than the Chinese). They could have gone after anti-government domestic political agitation in the United States. You know, the Chinese started with talk about relations with the "people" of the United States, and not with the "government" of the United States. But really, the Chinese do not perceive us to be a major military threat to them and dealing with the United States Government has seemed to them to be the best course to pursue. I believe, though, that if they conclude that the current course of action won't work, they will change their policy to a more revolutionary one.

**Question:** Can you address our relationship to Taiwan?

**Answer:** (Dr. Kissinger) Let me begin by saying that no people has deserved less what has happened to them this year than the Taiwanese. It has been a tragic series of events for them. From a point of view of historical evolution, of course, we are in a position where we simply cannot permit the physical overthrow of the government in Taiwan, whether that government is good or bad. We simply cannot feed our friend and ally to an enemy. On the other hand, it is worth remembering that both the Taiwanese and the Mainland Chinese claim that they represent the government of China itself, and if both sides find it desirable to enter into the negotiations to end their problems, this is an evolution, of course, that we would welcome.

ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL

**Question:** What will the impact of the China initiative be on the Vietnam war?

**Answer:** (Dr. Kissinger) The tie between China and the North Vietnamese is similar to our relationship to the Taiwanese. Neither can give up its ally. The mere fact that President Nixon is going to Peking during the war reflects certain political consequences for the Chinese. But let me say that we don't expect to settle the Vietnam war in Peking. The Chinese, to put it mildly, would not object to a settling of the Vietnam war. But the ending of the war we will do by negotiation with Hanoi, or unilaterally, not by negotiation with Peking.

[Dr. Kissinger's remarks ended, and he left the room].

THE BUSINESS COUNCIL - PARTICIPANTS

J. Paul Austin - Chairman and President, The Coca-Cola Company

William M. Batten - Chairman, J. C. Penney Company, Inc.

Eugene N. Beesley - Chairman, Eli Lilly and Company

James H. Binger - Chairman, Honeywell Inc.

Roger M. Blough - Partner, White & Case

Harold Boeschenstein - Chairman, Executive Committee, Owens-Corning Fiberglas Corporation

Fred J. Borch - Chairman, General Electric Company

William S. Brewster - Chairman, USM Corporation

Carter L. Burgess - Chairman, National Corporation for Housing Partnership

Donald C. Burnham - Chairman, Westinghouse Electric Corporation

Louis W. Cabot - Chairman, Cabot Corporation

Howard L. Clark - Chairman, American Express Company

John T. Connor - Chairman, Allied Chemical Corporation

C. W. Cook - Chairman, General Foods Corporation

John E. Corette - Chairman, The Montana Power Company

Stewart S. Cort - Chairman, Bethlehem Steel Corporation

Bert S. Cross - Chairman, Finance Committee, 3M Company

John H. Daniels - Chairman, Archer Daniels Midland Company

Frederick B. Dent - President, Mayfair Mills, Inc.

C. Douglas Dillon

E. Hervey Evans, Jr. - President, McNair Seed Company

Henry Ford II - Chairman, Ford Motor Company

C. Keith Funston - Chairman, Olin Corporation

Henry W. Gadsden - President, Merck & Co., Inc.

A. H. Galloway - Chairman, R. J. Reynolds Industries, Inc.

Philip O. Geier, Jr. - Chairman, Cincinnati Milacron Inc.

Carl J. Gilbert - Special Representative for Trade Negotiations

Edwin H. Gott - Chairman, United States Steel Corporation

Elisha Gray II - Chairman, Whirlpool Corporation

Patrick E. Haggerty - Chairman, Texas Instruments Incorporated

John D. Harper - Chairman, Aluminum Company of America

Ellison L. Hazard - Chairman and President, Continental Can Company

Amory Houghton, Jr. - Chairman, Corning Glass Works

Gilbert W. Humphrey, Chairman, The Hanna Mining Company

J. K. Jamieson - Chairman, Standard Oil Company

Samuel C. Johnson - Chairman and President, S. C. Johnson & Sons, Inc.

Edgar F. Kaiser - Chairman, Kaiser Industries Corporation

George E. Keck

2

Justin Kingson - Chairman, Commodore Industries, Inc.

Ralph Lazarus - Chairman, Federated Department Stores, Inc.

James A. Linen III - Chairman, Executive Committee, Time Incorporated

Edmund W. Littlefield - Chairman, Utah Construction & Mining Co.

Malcolm MacNaughton - President, Castle & Cooke, Inc.

Birny Mason, Jr. - Chairman, Executive Committee, Union Carbide Corporation

J. W. McAfee - Chairman, Union Electric Company

L. F. McCollum - Chairman, Continental Oil Company

Charles B. McCoy - President, E. I. duPont de Nemours & Co.

Neil McElroy - Chairman, The Procter & Gamble Company

Buck Mickel - President, Daniel International Corporation

G. William Miller - President, Textron Inc.

Irwin Miller - Chairman, Cummins Engine Company, Inc.

Otto N. Miller - Chairman, Standard Oil Company of California

Frank R. Milliken - President, Kennecott Copper Corporation

Roger Milliken - President, Deering Milliken, Inc.

Howard Morgens - President, The Procter & Gamble Company

Charles G. Mortimer - Director, Chairman, Executive Committee, General Foods Corporation

W. B. Murphy - President, Campbell Soup Company

Charles F. Myers, Jr. - Chairman, Burlington Industries, Inc.

Albert L. Nickerson

Aksel Nielsen

Robert S. Oelman - Chairman, The National Cash Register Company

David Packard - Deputy Secretary of Defense

T. E. Patton - Chairman, Republic Steel Corporation

Charles E. Percy - United States Senate

David Rockefeller - Chairman, Chase Manhattan Bank

H. I. Romnes - Chairman and President, American Telephone & Telegraphy Company

Sherman L. Sibley - President, Pacific Gas and Electric Company

Blackwell Smith - Partner, Burns & Van Kirk

L. B. (Ted) Smith - Chairman, A. O. Smith Corporation

Charles H. Sommer, Jr. - Chairman, Monsanto Company

Frank Stanton - President, Columbia Broadcasting System, Inc.

Robert T. Stevens - Chairman, Executive Committee, J. P Stevens & Co., Inc.

Charles B. Thornton - Chairman, Litton Industries, Inc.

Lynn A. Townsend - Chairman, Chrysler Corporation

Rawleigh Warner, Jr. - Chairman, Mobil Oil Corporation

George H. Weyerhaeuser - President, Weyerhaeuser Company

Langbourne M. Williams - Chairman, Executive Committee, Freeport Sulphur Company

Henry S. Wingate - Chairman, The International Nickel Company, Inc.