# AN ESCALATION LADDER

## A Generalized (or Abstract) Scenario

Aftermaths

Civilian Central
Wars

41. Some Other Kind of General War
40. Spasm War
*39. Augmented Disarming Attack
38. Countervalue Salvo
37. Slow Motion Countervalue War

(City Destruction Threshold)

Military Central
Wars

36. Counterforce-with-Avoidance Attack
35. Constrained Disarming Attack
34. Slow Motion Counterforce War
33. Force Reduction Salvo
32. Formal Declaration of War

(Central War Threshold)

Nuclear
"Gunboat
Diplomacy"

31. Reciprocal Reprisals (≈95%)
30. Complete Evacuation (≈95%)
29. Exemplary Attacks on Population
28. Exemplary Attacks Against Property
27. Exemplary Attack on Military
26. Demonstration Attack on Zone of Interior

(Central Sanctuary Threshold)

Bizarre Crises

25. Evacuation (≈70%)
24. Unusual, Provocative, and Significant
Countermeasures
23. Local Nuclear War--Military
22. Declaration of Limited Nuclear War
21. Local Nuclear War--Exemplary

(No Nuclear Use Threshold)

Intense Crises

*20. "Peaceful" World-Wide Embargo or Blockade
19. "Justifiable" Counterforce Attack
18. Spectacular Show or Demonstration of Force
17. Limited Evacuation (≈20%)
16. Nuclear "Ultimatums"
15. Barely Nuclear War
14. Declaration of Limited Conventional War
*13. Compound Counter-Escalation
12. Large Conventional War (or Actions)
11. Super-Ready Status
*10. Provocative Breaking Off of Diplomatic Relations

(Nuclear War Is Unthinkable Threshold)

Traditional
Crises

9. Dramatic Military Confrontations
8. Harassing Acts of Violence
7. "Legal" Harassment
6. Significant Mobilization
5. Show of Force
4. Hardening of Positions--Confrontation of Wills

(Don't Rock the Boat Threshold)

Subcrisis
Maneuvering

3. Congressional Resolution or Solemn Declaration
2. Political, Economic, and Diplomatic Gestures
1. Ostensible Crisis

Disagreement--Cold War

*These rungs and options are not discussed in "Escalation and Its Strategic Context," but are discussed in the attached sheets.

TUESDAY, JUNE 4th

9:15 A.M. - 12:30 P.M. *Conference Room*

STRATEGY FOR DETERRING OR ENGAGING IN LIMITED
USE OF FORCE IN EUROPE

*Chairman:* Thomas C. Schelling

*Discussants:* Malcolm W. Hoag
Fred C. Ikle
Helmut Schmidt

3:30-5:30 P.M. *Gun Room*

PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS OF BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE

*A briefing by Charles M. Herzfeld*

8:00 P.M. *Gun Room*

GUEST SPEAKER: Jerome B. Wiesner, Special Assistant (Science and Technology) to the President of the United States

THURSDAY, JUNE 6th

9:15 A.M. - 12:30 P.M. Conference Room

MILITARY FACTORS AFFECTING CONTROL AND OWNERSHIP
OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS AMONG NATO COUNTRIES

Chairman: Thomas C. Schelling

Discussants: Francois de Rose
Malcolm Hoag
A. W. G. Le Hardy

3:30-5:30 P.M. Gun Room

U.S. DEFENSE POLICIES AND THE POLITICAL PROCESS

*A briefing by Warner R. Schilling*

8:00 P.M. Conference Room

NATO-STRATEGY AND ARMS CONTROL

Chairman: Thomas C. Schelling

Discussants: Morton H. Halperin
Uwe Nerlich

FRIDAY, JUNE 7th

POLITICAL AND OTHER FACTORS AFFECTING NUCLEAR
PROGRAMS AND RELATIONSHIPS AMONG NATO COUNTRIES

Chairman: Henry A. Kissinger

Discussants: George Brown

Klaus Knorr

Robert E. Osgood

2:30-5:30 P.M. *Conference Room*

A NATO MULTILATERAL FORCE

*The Merchant Team on a Multilateral Force:*

Livingston T. Merchant: *Special Assistant to the U.S. Secretary of State*

John M. Lee: *Rear Admiral*

Gerard C. Smith: *Special Advisor to the U.S. Secretary of State*

8:00-10:00 P.M.

GENERAL DISCUSSION

Chairman: Henry A. Kissinger

Participants

ACHILLE ALBONETTI, Director, International Affairs and Economic Studies
Division of the Italian National Committee for Nuclear Energy

ANDRÉ BEAUFRE (General), Director, French Institute of Strategic Studies
(Paris)

ROBERT R. BOWIE, Director, Center for International Affairs, Harvard
University

BERNARD BRODIE, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California

GEORGE BROWN, Member of Parliament and Deputy Leader of the British
Labour Party

ROBERTO DUCCI, Ambassador, Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

FRIEDRICH VON DUNGERN, First Secretary, German Ministry of Foreign Affairs

ALAIN ENTHOVEN, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller)
for Systems Analysis

R. FOCH, Director, External Affairs Division of EURATOM (Brussels)

ANDRÉ FONTAINE, Foreign Editor of Le Monde (Paris)

ROBERTO GAJA, Minister Plenipotentiary, Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

MORTON H. HALPERIN, Center for International Affairs, Harvard University

CHARLES M. HERZFELD, Director for Ballistic Missile Defense, Advanced
Research Projects Agency, Department of Defense

MALCOLM W. HOAG, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California

JOHAN J. HOLST, Center for International Affairs, Harvard University

HEINZ HUND, First Secretary, German Ministry of Defense

FRED C. IKLÉ, Center for International Affairs, Harvard University

ALUN GWYNNE JONES, Defence Correspondent, The Times (London)

ALAIN JOXE, Mathematical Study Group for Political and Strategic Problems,
École Pratique des Hautes Études (Paris)

HERMAN KAHN, Director, The Hudson Institute, Harmon-on-Hudson,
New York

WILLIAM W. KAUFMANN, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Mass.

GLENN A. KENT (Brigadier General), Office of the Director of Defense
Research and Engineering, U.S. Department of Defense

ANTHONY KERSHAW, Member of Parliament, British Conservative Party

HENRY A. KISSINGER, Center for International Affairs, Harvard University

KLAUS KNORR, Director, Center for International Studies, Princeton Uni-
versity, Princeton, New Jersey

(LC)

LOTHAR LAHN, *First Secretary, Arms Control Division of the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs*

JEAN LALOY, Minister Plenipotentiary, Director of European Affairs, French Ministry of Foreign Affairs

NATHAN LEITES, *The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California*

ANTHONY W. G. LE HARDY (Wing Commander), British Ministry of Defence

UWE NERLICH, Head, Arms Control Section of the German Institute for Foreign Affairs (Bonn)

NILS ØRVIK, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Oslo

ROBERT E. OSGOOD, *The Washington Center for Foreign Policy Research, Washington D.C.*

PETER W. REIPSCHLÄGER, *International Politics Division, The Federal Association of German Industry (Cologne)*

JAMES L. RICHARDSON, *Center for International Affairs, Harvard University*

FRANCOIS DE ROSE, Minister Plenipotentiary, French Ministry of Foreign Affairs

PIERRE ROSENSTIEHL, *Mathematical Study Group for Political and Strategic Problems, École Pratique des Hautes Études (Paris)*

HENRY S. ROWEN, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (ISA) for Planning and National Security Council Affairs

L. J. SABATINI, *Assistant Secretary, British Ministry of Defense*

THOMAS C. SCHELLING, *Center for International Affairs, Harvard University*

WARNER R. SCHILLING, *Institute of War and Peace Studies, Columbia University, New York, N.Y.*

HELMUT SCHMIDT, *Senator (SPD) in Hamburg*

URS SCHWARZ, *Foreign Editor of Neue Zürcher Zeitung (Zürich)*

THEO SOMMER, *Die Zeit, Hamburg*

R. J. SUTHERLAND, *Chief of Operational Research, Canadian Defense Research Board (Ottawa)*

A. R. TAMMENOMS BAKKER, Head, NATO and WEU Department of the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs

RUDOLF WILDENMANN, *Research Institute for Political Science and European Affairs of the University of Cologne*

PHILIP WINDSOR, *Research Associate, Institute for Strategic Studies (London)*

ALBERT WOHLSTETTER, *Research Council, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California*

MRS. ROBERTA WOHLSTETTER, *The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California*

THOMAS W. WOLFE, *The RAND Corporation, Washington, D.C.*