Index

<table>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td>THE DIRECTOR'S LETTER</td>
      <td>81</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>RESEARCH</td>
      <td></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Cycles in the Stock Market</td>
      <td>83</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Cycles in Influenza</td>
      <td>89</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>TECHNICAL</td>
      <td></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>The Periodogram</td>
      <td>94</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>FOUNDATION REPRINT NO. 36.</td>
      <td></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>The Revolutions of Civilisation</td>
      <td>95</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

THE FOUNDATION FOR THE STUDY OF CYCLES

The Committee of the Foundation consists of the following scientists and administrators:

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Copley Amory, Chairman of the Board
Charles Greeley Abbot
Research Associate
Smithsonian Institution
Harold Elmer Anthony
Chairman and Curator
Department of Mammals
American Museum of Natural History
George Baekeland
The Bakelite Corporation
Hon. Charles G. Dawes
Chairman of the Board
City National Bank and Trust Company
of Chicago
Hon. W. Cameron Forbes
Member, Board of Trustees
Carnegie Institution of Washington
and
Life Member of the Corporation
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Daniel Trembly MacDougal
Former Director
Department of Botanical Research
and
Laboratory of Plant Physiology
Carnegie Institution of Washington
Harlow Shapley
Director of the Observatory
Harvard University

CANADA

Hon. Charles Camsell
Former Commissioner
Northwest Territories
Frank Cyril James
Principal and Vice-Chancellor
McGill University

GREAT BRITAIN

Sir Patrick Ashley Cooper
Governor
Hudson's Bay Company
Julian Sorrell Huxley
Director General of the United Nations
Educational, Scientific and Cultural
Organizations

CYCLES - A Monthly Report is published by the Foundation for the Study of Cycles every month except during July and August at the Foundation's offices at 9 East 77th Street, New York 21, N.Y. Subscription rates $10.00 a year. Application for entry as second class matter at New York, N.Y. is pending. Letters for the personal attention of the Director should be sent to Riverside, Conn.

cycles
—a monthly report

The Official Bulletin of
the Foundation for the
Study of Cycles

VOLUME II

NUMBER 2

MARCH 1951

# The Director's Letter

Dear Member:

We are using a large part of this issue to reprint for you an
entire 137-page book by Sir Flinders Petrie, the great archaeologist.
The book is called *Revolutions of Civilisation*.

This book has a great deal of historical interest. It was originally published in 1911 and is the first attempt that I know about to advance the modern theory of the rise and fall of civilizations.

This thesis was expanded by Oswald Spengler into his thousand
page masterpiece *The Decline of the West*, originally published in
July 1918. In more recent times the same basic concept has been elaborated by A. J. Toynbee in his six volume work, *A Study of History*, which has attracted so much attention among thinking men both here and abroad.

In reprinting Sir Flinders Petrie's *Revolutions of Civilisation* we have adopted the expedient of putting four pages of the original book on one page of our monthly report so that the entire book comes to you within reasonable compass. I hope that you will find this book of interest and of value in understanding the critical times through which we are passing in our present age.

This issue inaugurates a series of articles in regard to cycles in the stock market. The stock market is very complex, but offers a fascinating field for study. In studying other series of figures I refer to my stock market work time and time again.

The article in regard to cycles in influenza is particularly timely, but more than that it gives you an excellent example of a cycle that seems to be dynamic and internal rather than external.

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82

CYCLES — Report for March 1951

A friend of the Foundation, who insists that he remain nameless, has designed a new cover and a new masthead for us. I hope you like the new designs as well as I do.

After a while, with the help of everyone concerned, our monthly report may become a real publication.

Having got into the subject of our monthly report you may be interested to have me go on to tell you of the mechanical details involved in its production.

First of all, I grub it out in longhand. It seems to me I do a little better job this way than when I dictate. Mrs. Swartz, my secretary, then translates what I write and types it. (She had to take special courses in Sanskrit and Chinese before she could do it, but now she manages quite well.)

With a typed copy completed Mr. Malinowski, a *Delayed Pilgrim* who is helping us now, lays out the report, arranging it around the charts. I then add a few words or cut out a few words to make it fit the available space.

Mrs. Malinowski, his attractive wife, then retypes the copy, complete with subheads, on the varitype machine. This process is necessary to make the report look like printing and to make the right hand margins come out even. Mrs. Malinowski also types the tables and types the captions for the charts, many of which she also draws.

Mrs. Malinowski sets the big initial letters of the articles and the main heads in Fototype. Fototype consists of pieces of thin cardboard with letters printed on them. These cardboards are pasted into place as we wish. The charts also are pasted into place and all is ready for the printer, usually about midnight on the day of the deadline.

The varityped copy then goes by special delivery mail to Edwards Brothers in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Edwards brothers is a fine old firm which specializes in printing small editions of books, reprints, etc. They reproduce by offset exactly what we send them, defects and all.

When the printing is finished two copies are air mailed to Mrs. Roessle in charge of our publication office in New York City who makes the necessary arrangements with the post office people so that the report can be mailed.

In the meantime the remaining copies are en route back east by parcel post. Most of them go direct to the Business Letter Service of 345 Hudson Street, New York City, who make and attach the labels, sort the reports by geographical area, and attend to the mailing.

By the time you receive your copy, most of the next issue has been written and the varityping for it is partly done. This process continues in seemingly endless procession except for July and August. These months provide a break which will, I hope, give me a chance to catch up on correspondence!

Cordially yours,

Research

Cycles in the Stock Market

BACK in 1943 and 1944 I had the time to do a good deal of work of a preliminary nature in connection with the cycles in the stock market.

I think it will interest you to learn about this work.

I have always liked working with stock market figures because some of them extend over a fairly long period of time, and because they seem to be relatively undistorted by war.

Stock market figures also have a great advantage over many figures in that they are available monthly, weekly, and daily as well as annually. Therefore, if one has the time and the patience, it is possible to determine cycle lengths with great accuracy especially if one is careful to choose homogeneous series of stock price figures.

It seems to me quite reasonable to accept stock market figures as a reliable measure of mass psychology. However, like so many ideas that are reasonable, this idea may not stand close scrutiny.

Different Stocks Have Different Cycles

A powerful argument against the point of view that the stock market measures mass psychology is the fact that different stocks or groups of stocks evidence different cycles, or the same cycles with somewhat different weights, and at somewhat different timing.

As evidence of this fact I reproduce herewith as Fig. 1 six periodograms of various group averages prepared by E. S. C. Coppock of San Antonio, Texas, one of our members.

The periodograms represent the results of analyses of six different groups of common stocks as follows: Building Material Stocks, Canadian Cold Mining Stocks,

Leveraged Investment Company Stocks, Motion Picture Stocks, Miscellaneous Low Priced Stocks, and Farm Equipment Stocks. All from January 1932 to May of 1950.

A periodogram is merely a chart showing the relative importance of various average cycles present in a series of figures. The different cycle lengths are shown on the scale at the bottom of the periodogram. The relative importance of the cycle is shown by the scale at the left. Speaking roughly, at or near every cycle length where the curve of a periodogram is high, there is in the figures that have been analyzed an *average* cycle of importance. And of course where there is an important *average* cycle there may be a *rhythmic* or repetitive cycle also.

For example, in the periodogram of Leveraged Investment Company stocks the peak at 30 months indicates an *average* wave at or very close to this length. In the same series another peak at 36 months indicates that, on the average, there is an even stronger wave of 36 months in length.

If you want more help in interpreting Mr. Coppock's periodograms, refer to the Technical Section of this report. But you do not really need to understand them fully in order to get their significance for our present purposes. This significance is that different stocks have different cycles.

For example, in Farm Equipment Stocks if there is a 30-month cycle it is obviously much less important than an average cycle of 29 months. And in Gold Mining Stocks an average cycle of 27 months is more important.

You can discover many other examples of difference if you study the periodograms on the two following pages.

83

85

FIG. 1. CONTINUED

long series of figures representing the
behavior of the stock market as a whole
cannot be regarded as homogeneous.

Stock Market Averages not Homogeneous

This lack of homogeneity is due to the
fact that stocks of new industries have
been added from time to time--stocks which
may be characterized by different cycles,
or the same cycles coming a little earlier
or a little later.

To show you this lack of homogeneity,
I reproduce below as Fig. 2 a chart from
**Common-Stock Indexes** by Alfred Cowles 3rd
and Associates which shows the dates for
which prices of the various kinds of
stocks are introduced into the Cowles
Commission—Standard Statistics Index.
Poughly half of the industries go back no
further than 1910.

You can easily see how confused the
cycles in the overall index could be with
new stocks, some of which may have dif-
ferent cycles, coming into the picture all
the time. To analyze such a series is
analogous to trying to make a chemical
analysis of a vat of liquid into which new
substances are constantly being introduced.

On the other hand there is a partially
compensating advantage in dealing with a
general index of all stocks. This advantage
is the fact that in such an index the
accidental variations of individual com-
panies and individual industries are partly
offset and thus minimized. However this

advantage does not nearly offset the dis-
advantage of lack of homogeneity referred
to above. Any work on a combined index
which extends over many years should be
thought of as merely exploratory and pre-
liminary.

In my studies of the cycles in the
stock market I did some work on the Dow
Jones Industrials, but the greater part of
the work was on the Cowles Commission In-
dex P-2, Industrials, available by months
from January 1871 forward.

The Cowles Commission Index

I chose the Cowles Commission Index
for a number of reasons, some of which are
contained in the look **Common-Stock Indexes**
referred to above, in a section entitled
"Criticism of Well Known Indexes." In
addition, at least some of the cycles
appear more clearly and more regularly in
the Cowles Index. It was this latter fact
that really caused the decision to use the
Cowles Index.

Fig. 3 which, like Fig. 2, is repro-
duced with permission of the Cowles Com-
mission from Common-Stock Indexes, shows
you the differences between three of the
best known indexes. The greatest differ-
ence is between the Cowles Index and the
Dow-Jones Index, but this difference would
be greatly reduced if the Dow-Jones figures
were adjusted for the drastic change in
the index made during 1914. This adjust-
ment is of course always made by careful

88

students. It eliminates the discontinuity of the curve between July 1914 when the exchange closed, and December 1914 when the exchange reopened.

As you doubtless know, the Cowles Commission Index ties in with the Standard Statistics weekly stock price indexes available from 1918 forward. (This index is now known as the Standard & Poor's Corporation index.)

In this connection, a word of warning is in order, because several years ago the Standard weekly indexes and their monthly averages were changed from a base of 1926=100 to a base of 1935-39=100. This means that the current values as you read them in the newspaper and in the *Survey of Current Business* are not directly comparable with the indexes as published previously, in *Common-Stock Indexes*, for example. It is a small matter to make the necessary adjustments, but it is important to realize that they need to be made.

I said at the beginning that my work on the stock market was of a preliminary nature. This is so not only because I worked with a combined index, but because I did not have time to do the work to make sure that the indicated cycles are *rhythmic* or regularly recurring. I found that a certain cycle was present on the average in the series as a whole and in each of its two halves or even in each third or each quarter. But this is very different from making sure that the waves repeat one by one time after time.

For example, if, for many years, I have put $300 in my savings account once every three years, this is very definitely an average of $100 a year, but no matter how well established the custom—and even if the behavior continues,—it does not indicate that I will deposit $100 next year and $100 the year after. Beware of mathematical averages unless you know what goes into them. Only when we have *rhythms* do we have any assurance of continuation.

When a cycle is present on the *average*, and especially when it is present on the average in each half or each third or each fourth of the series of figures, it provides you with a good lead or clue which you can then verify in other ways. But you should not use the information until you

have verified the repetitive or rhythmic nature of the waves.

Perhaps this is enough in the way of preliminary explanation.

## Preliminary results of analysis

What did I find as a result of my stock market work?

I found very definite hints of waves of many different lengths.

Some of the more important and more probable cycles have lengths as follows:

<table><thead><tr><th>2.975 months</th><th></th><th>or 3.40 years</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>8.00</td><td>"</td><td>"</td></tr><tr><td>8.80</td><td>"</td><td>"</td></tr><tr><td>10.95</td><td>"</td><td>"</td></tr><tr><td>14.40</td><td>"</td><td>"</td></tr><tr><td>17.17</td><td>"</td><td>"</td></tr><tr><td>18.17</td><td>"</td><td>"</td></tr><tr><td>24.25</td><td>"</td><td>"</td></tr><tr><td>29.28</td><td>"</td><td>"</td></tr><tr><td>31.0</td><td>"</td><td>"</td></tr><tr><td>35.5</td><td>"</td><td>"</td></tr><tr><td>40.8</td><td>"</td><td>"</td></tr><tr><td>45.5</td><td>"</td><td>3.79</td></tr><tr><td>58.7</td><td>"</td><td>4.89</td></tr><tr><td>66.0</td><td>"</td><td>5.50</td></tr><tr><td>72.8</td><td>"</td><td>6.07</td></tr><tr><td>82.3</td><td>"</td><td>6.86</td></tr><tr><td>98.0</td><td>"</td><td>8.17</td></tr><tr><td>110.4</td><td>"</td><td>9.2</td></tr><tr><td>132.0</td><td>"</td><td>11.0</td></tr><tr><td>144.0</td><td>"</td><td>12.0</td></tr><tr><td>174.0</td><td>"</td><td>14.5</td></tr><tr><td>252.0</td><td>"</td><td>21.0</td></tr></tbody></table>

I hope I have impressed upon you the preliminary nature of this work. These are not exact lengths of discovered and confirmed cycles. They are merely areas where further work might be fruitful.

Each of these indicated lengths should be thoroughly investigated and the cycles either confirmed and accepted as real, modified, or discarded.

I shall tell you more about each of these cycles in future reports. I shall tell you the dates of crest and trough, the shape of the waves, the amplitude of the waves, and the techniques involved in the isolation.

I shall also tell you about many other cycles which seemed to be present, but about which I had greater question.

Cycles in Influenza

Note: The following article is a digest
of "The periodicity of Influenza"* by The
Commission on Acute Respiratory Diseases,
Fort Bragg, North Carolina.** The Jury of
Awards of the Foundation for the Study of
Cycles bestowed an Honorable Mention upon
the Commission for this study.

FOR many years students of epidemics
have studied the recurrent waves of
influenza in an attempt to find a
cyclical pattern and to define its
periodicity.

Many studies have called attention to
cycles in deaths from influenza and from
pneumonia, often associated with influenza.
Cycles of 33 weeks, 41 weeks, 36 months
and other lengths have been suggested, but
none of the observations have had more than
a short term of success in forecasting
future epidemics.

Since the discovery of the influenza
viruses type A and Type E, a more rational
cyclical pattern is becoming apparent.

Suggestions of a strict 2-year periodi-
icity for influenza A and a 4-year periodi-
icity for influenza E were then made, but
later experience has not been in complete
accord with these suggestions.

Observations suggest that influ-
enza A may recur at a variable interval
of 2 to 3 years and that influenza E may
have a cycle of 4 to perhaps 6 years.

According to studies of Selwyn D.
Collins and M. Grover, 16 widespread epi-

demics occurred in the United States
between 1920 and 1944.

Six of these 16 epidemics have been
nationwide in extent and the remaining 10
have been recognized in 4 or more of the 9
geographic areas of the country as desig-
nated by the United States Public Health
Service. These epidemics are shown in the
upper line of Fig. 1, which is taken from
charts generously provided by Dr. Collins.

Five of the 8 epidemics of unknown
cause which occurred between 1920 and 1932
are in phase with the 2-to-3-year cycle of
influenza A (middle line of Fig. 1). The 3
remaining epidemics appeared in phase with
the 4-to-6-year cycle suggested for in-
fluenza E (lower line of Fig. 1).

The 11 epidemics which recurred in the
2-to-3-year cycle of influenza A have
tended to occur in early or mid-winter
months. They have usually been associated
with a sharply defined and marked excess
of pneumonia mortality and many have ex-
tended widely throughout the country. Six
of the 11 epidemics have been nationwide
in extent.

The 5 epidemics grouped in the 4-to-6-
year cycle of influenza E have tended to
appear later in the winter or in the spring
months. The associated excess pneumonia
mortality has been less marked and more
irregular. Not any have been clearly
recognized in all 9 geographic areas of
the country.

No attempt has been made to establish
rigid or fixed cycles but rather a defi-
nite but limited degree of variation in
the cycles is postulated.

Such variability, if limited, is not
inconsistent with the concept of periodi-
icity. Other diseases which are considered
to recur periodically also have variable
cycles. For example, measles tends to re-
cur in some cities annually, e.g., Chicago,
and in others biennially, e.g., Glasgow.
In Providence and Baltimore the cycle has
varied from 2 to 3 years.

Many factors, such as the size of the
epidemiological units being considered,
the degree of intermixing among various
population groups within them, and the

*Published in The American Journal of Hygiene, Vol. 43, No. 1, 29-37, January, 1946

**Members and professional associates of the Commission on Acute Respiratory Diseases are: John H. Dingle, Major, M.C., A.U.S., Director; Theodore J. Abernethy, Major, M.C., A.U.S.; George F. Badger, Major, M.C., A.U.S.; Joseph W. Beard, M.D.; Norman L. Cressy, Major, M.C., A.U.S.; A. E. Feller, M.D.; Irving Cordon, M.D.; Alexander D. Langmuir, Major, M.C., A.U.S.; Charles H. Fammelkamp, Jr., M.D.; Elias Strauss, Captain, M.C., A.U.S.

89

90

climate and other environmental conditions, undoubtedly influence the extent of epidemics and the interval of their recurrence.

The United States and Great Britain appear to represent a relatively homogeneous epidemiological unit in regard to influenza A. The periodicity of influenza within this unit since 1932 has been fully as regular as that of measles in many large cities.

In other regions the intervals between epidemics may be quite different. For example, in Australia a 3-to-4-year cycle has been reported.

The present formulation does not make possible the exact prediction of future epidemics but rather indicates the probability of occurrences of epidemics within certain time limits. For example: in the past 25 years, 7 of the 11 epidemics of presumptive influenza A have recurred at an interval of 2 years and the remaining 4 with a 3-year interval. Therefore, the chances are roughly 7/11 to 1 (64%) that influenza A will reappear during the winter of 1945-1946. If it fails to occur in this

season, the probability is much greater that it will appear in the following winter.

Observations suggest that, like measles, influenza persists in large populations through sporadic cases and limited outbreaks only to return in epidemic form when the necessary conditions are present which favor rapid dissemination of the agent.

Regarding the mechanism which controls the development of these favorable conditions, an analogy to measles may be used again. The recurrence of measles epidemics has been explained on the basis of the time-honored theory of the balance between susceptible and immune persons in the population.

This theoretical formulation for measles may be reasonably applied to influenza.

The apparent regularity of the periodicity of influenza in the past 25 years suggests that this balance between immune and susceptible individuals in the population may be the dominant factor which determines when an epidemic will occur.

## Postscript

As I said in my headnote, the above material is a digest of "The Periodicity of Influenza" by the Commission on Acute Respiratory Diseases, Fort Bragg, N. C. The report, which was published on January 19th, 1946 showed figures only up to and including 1943.

How have the forecasts worked out in the seven years since they were made?

In an effort to answer this question, I wrote to Dr. Collins for statistics from 1943 to date.

In response Dr. Collins very kindly send me the chart reproduced below which covers the 24 years shown by the top curve of Fig. 1 and in addition brings the chart up to the middle of 1950, the latest available consolidated data.

You will recall that according to the theory, epidemics of influenza A were to be expected at two or three year intervals from the one in the winter of 1943-44.

As you can see by reference to Dr. Collins' charts, the epidemics of influenza A did in fact come three years later during the winter of 1946-47 on March 26, 1947

and again after another interval of three years in the winter of 1949-50 on March 22.

If the behavior noted by the Commission on Acute Respiratory Diseases for influenza A continues, we can expect another peak of this disease next winter or the winter following.

You will also recall that according to the theory, epidemics of influenza B come at 4 to 6 year intervals.

As the last epidemic of influenza B, at the time of the study, had taken place in the winter of 1939-40, another epidemic was expected from 4 to 6 years later. As you can see from reference to Dr. Collins' charts, there was indeed another epidemic six years later, in the winter of 1945-46.

If we disregard the almost insignificant outbreak on January 7th of 1948, and if the four to six year behavior continues, the next peak of influenza B should come either this winter or next.

In connection with this whole subject of influenza, I found Dr. Collins' letter of intense interest. With his permission I reproduce it herewith.

92

IN REPLYING, ADDRESS THE
U. S. PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE
REFER TO: PHM-MHS

FEDERAL SECURITY AGENCY

U. S. PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE
WASHINGTON 25, D. C.

January 19, 1951

Dr. Edward R. Dewey
Director
Foundation for the Study of Cycles
Riverside, Connecticut

Dear Dr. Dewey:

We have been working on bringing up to date the excess influenza and pneumonia death rates as used in the paper to which you refer. We have just finished a chart in which the data are plotted from the middle of 1918 to at least the middle of 1950 or possibly a little later. This covers all of the weekly data which we have. The data prior to 1920 may be based on somewhat fewer than 90 cities and the data from March 1943 to the present are based on 56 instead of 90 cities. In the case of the 1936 to 1942 data, we compared the excesses in the 90 cities with those in the 56 cities for several years and found that the results were quite similar. Due to the reorganization of the reporting system, we do not get current data on the whole 90 cities at present. I will send you a photographic reprint of this chart as soon as it is made, which may be several days. We will put the types of influenza on the chart.

Referring to your last paragraph, I am sending a couple of recent reports on the influenza now occurring in Europe. I believe the facts as they are set forth are all that I could tell you about it. However the most recent reports on mortality in England indicate that the disease is more severe than was first thought. Thus far there has been no evidence of influenza in this country even though it is in Europe and also in the Pacific islands.

You will find in these reports of influenza in Europe the term "A-prime" as well as type A. As I understand it, A-prime is similar to A in many respects but there is very little cross-immunity—that is, individuals or animals immunized against A-prime are not protected against A. Likewise B does not protect against A, nor A against B.

As you will see from the chart I am sending you, there seems to be a rather consistent decline in the size of the epidemics in recent years, the 1943-44 epidemic being the last one with any considerable amount of mortality. Reported cases of influenza are very unreliable. The disease tends to be reported in large numbers during epidemic periods, whereas the facts seem to indicate that there is considerable influenza between the epidemics. Therefore we have no reliable index of cases of influenza. So it could be that the smallness of the excess death rates is due to the newer therapies such as the sulfa drugs and penicillin, even though the case rates are still high. Of course it could also be a change in the various influenza viruses toward milder strains.

In 1900 the total death rate from influenza and pneumonia was 200 per 100,000 population whereas in 1949 the rate was down to 30 per 100,000. There were a few very mild small epidemics of influenza around 1900, and the average of the rates for the 5 years 1900-1904 was 185. Most of the decline has occurred since about 1937 which was about the time the newer chemotherapies began to be used. Beginning with 1938 there was a sharp change in the trend of the rate. The average rate for the years 1935 to 1937 was 113, as compared with 30 in 1949.

In addition to strains A, A-prime, and B, there has been discovered a strain C but only in one or two cases. You will understand that out of tests for many cases of these viruses a large percentage may be negative—that is, no virus was isolated, but a sufficient number are positive to say usually that this epidemic was largely A, largely A-prime, or largely B. No epidemics are yet credited to C since they have found that only in individual cases.

Enclosure

# Technical

## THE PERIODOGRAM

MR. COPPOCK'S periodograms of stock group averages shown on pages 84 and 85 of this issue give the delta (Δ) values determined in accordance with the methods described by Harold T. Davis in a chapter called, "The Techniques of Harmonic Analysis" in his book *The Analysis of Economic Time Series*.

I have found these methods quite inadequate. They do things they ought not to do, they do not do things they ought to do and, as the Episcopalians say, there is no health in them, or at least not very much.

If you have read "Long Cycles in Cotton Prices" and "Multiple Harmonic Analysis" in the November report, you should have a pretty good idea of periodic tables, periodograms, and harmonic analysis. (If you have not read these two articles, or have forgotten them, it would be a good plan to look up the November issue again.)

With these two articles in mind, let us interpret Mr. Coppock's periodograms. Suppose we take the first one covering Building Material Stocks as an example.

First of all we note that from January 1932 through May of 1950 there are a total of 221 months. Here are the first 20 harmonics of 221: I have indicated them on the periodogram, from the 3rd harmonic down.

Harmonics of 221 Months.

<table><thead><tr><th>Harmonic</th><th>Length in months</th><th>Harmonic</th><th>Length in months</th><th>Harmonic</th><th>Length in months</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Fund.</td><td>221</td><td>8th</td><td>27.6</td><td>15th</td><td>14.7</td></tr><tr><td>2nd</td><td>110.5</td><td>9th</td><td>24.6</td><td>16th</td><td>13.8</td></tr><tr><td>3rd</td><td>73.7</td><td>10th</td><td>22.1</td><td>17th</td><td>13.0</td></tr><tr><td>4th</td><td>55.3</td><td>11th</td><td>20.1</td><td>18th</td><td>12.3</td></tr><tr><td>5th</td><td>44.2</td><td>12th</td><td>18.4</td><td>19th</td><td>11.6</td></tr><tr><td>6th</td><td>36.8</td><td>13th</td><td>17.0</td><td>20th</td><td>11.1</td></tr><tr><td>7th</td><td>31.5</td><td>14th</td><td>15.7</td><td></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table>

You can never interpret a periodogram unless you keep in mind the length of the various harmonic intervals.

At this point let me remind you that what Davis calls delta (Δ) values, that is, the values charted on the Coppock periodogram, are merely the difference between the largest sum and the smallest sum of the different columns of the periodic table. These values have very little significance and are likely to change importantly when Mr. Coppock, in the continuation of his analysis, computes what Davis calls the R values.

However, assuming that they have some significance, let us interpret them.

Let us start with the 8th harmonic. The value of 23/2 points (using values for month nearest the harmonic interval) indicates strength for a length somewhere between the ninth interval of 25 months and the 7th interval of 32 months.

As the value for 27 months is lower than 23/2 points and the value for 29 months is higher, and then falls off again, the indicated length is perhaps 29 months. The double peak gives a hint of the possibility of two cycles, one at 29 and one at 31.

In contrast to this, consider the peak at 17 months, the 13th harmonic. The peak here means that there is strength somewhere between the 14th harmonic and the 12th harmonic. You could have one average cycle of 17 months and another entirely separate one of 18 months for example, or the strength at 17 months and at 18 months could both be due to the same wave with a length between 17 months and 18 months. From the periodogram as constructed you cannot tell.

Thus Davis' method gives you 18 different values between your 3rd and 4th harmonics, which are three times as many values as you need, and no values at all between your 13th and 12th harmonics, where you need a minimum of five or six.

94

1-3

# THE REVOLUTIONS OF CIVILISATION

2.5

## CHAPTER I
### THE NATURE OF CIVILISATION

#### (1) THE MEANING OF LIFE

THE meaning of Life has in all ages been the goal of human thought. The search for the causes and effects of the changes that man has undergone has laid the foundations of his religion and his philosophy. The solutions of the different problems have been as inaccurate as they are varied; nor could any better results be expected from the very insufficient acquaintance with the past.

The last fifty years have greatly extended our knowledge of history, and we stand on a very different footing to all those who in earlier times have dealt with the position of man. While, formerly, nothing could be learned that was not in written record, handed down from generation to generation, we now handle manuscripts that last saw the light when Rome ruled, we read the records that were compiled thousands of years before the Father of History,

and we know how to reconstruct the unwritten past from the many other activities and products of human work.

It seems, therefore, that the time has arrived when we may begin to take some general outlook over the history of human nature. Our material for observation is far greater than others have had. Our method is more developed since we have learned that comparison is the principal—or almost the only—useful line of study. Can we then extract a meaning from all the ceaseless turmoil and striving, and success and failure, of these thousands of years? Can we see any regular structure behind it all? Can we learn any general principles that may formulate the past, or be projected on the mists of the future?

Hitherto the comparatively brief outlook of Western history has given us only the great age of classical civilisation before modern times. We have been in the position of a child that remembers only a single summer before that which he enjoys. To such an one the cold, dark, miserable winter that has intervened seems a needless and inexplicable interruption of a happier order—of a summer which should never cease. Only a few years ago a writer of repute deplored the mysterious fall of the Roman Empire, which in his view ought to have been always prosperous, and never have fallen to the barbarians. He was the child who could not understand the winter.

#### (2) INTERMITTENT CIVILISATION

From what we now know, it is evident, even on the most superficial view, that civilisation is an intermittent phenomenon. When we look at Greek art—as in the exquisite grave steles (fig. 1); then at the decay, before the time of the barbarian invasions—as in the figure of Bellicia (Felicia) from the catacombs (fig. 2); and then, again, at the splendid sculpture of the fifteenth century—as in the San Giorgio of Donatello (fig. 3), the intermission of art is obvious. We therefore need to compare the various periods, to see what they have in common, and to gather what may be taken as the type of them all.

Further, when on a longer view we can trace in the East several intermissions, we may say that civilisation is a recurrent phenomenon. As such it should be examined like any other action of Nature; its recurrences should be studied, and all the principles which underlie its variations should be defined.

1. THE GRAVE STELE OF HEGESO. ATHENS.

99

6-9

REVOLUTIONS OF CIVILISATION

### (3) SCULPTURE THE DEFINITE TEST

We need to look at some one feature of the complex mass of interests which are grouped under the name of civilisation, in order to make accurate comparisons. We should only be con-

2. THE GRAVE STELE OF BELLICIA, ROME.

fused if we contrast things differing in their nature, such as Egyptian construction, Greek poetry, and mediaeval self-denial. Though sculpture is only one, and not the most important, of the many subjects that might be compared throughout various ages, yet it is available over so long a period, in so many countries, and so readily presented to the mind, that it may be well to begin with that as a standard subject for comparison, and afterwards look at other activities.

### (4) THE GREAT YEAR

We have used the simile of summer and winter for the growth and fall of civilisation. This analogy of the Great Year was familiar to the ancients; in the East, Berossos, the Babylonian, writes of the summer and winter of the Great Year; in the West, the Etruscans also spoke of the Great Year as the period of each race of men that should arise in succession. When their own Great Year, of 1100 years, came to an end in the turbulent time of Sulla (87 B.C.), we read: "One day when the sky was serene and clear there was heard in it the sound of a trumpet, so shrill and mournful that it frightened and astonished the whole city. The Tuscan sages said that it portended a new race of men, and a renovation of the

7-10

3. SAN GIORGIO, BY DONATELLO. FLORENCE.

world, for they observed that there were eight several kinds of men, all differing in life and manners; that heaven had allotted to each its time, which was limited by the circuit of the Great Year; and that when one race came to a period, and another was rising, it was announced by some wonderful sign from either earth or heaven. So that it was evident at one view to those who attended to these things, and were versed in them, that a different sort of men was come into the world, with other manners and customs, and more or less the care of the gods than those who had preceded them. ... Such was the mythology of the most learned and respectable of the Tuscan soothers" (Plutarch, in Sulla). Apart from the innate belief in divination, we see the broad idea which the Etruscans had of history, that each successive race had its period of a Great Year in which it sprouted, flourished, decayed, and died. And the simile is the more precise, as there may be bright warm days in winter, or cold times in summer, and there are always irregular fluctuations of weather. So in the course of each civilisation there are similar variations, but they do not prevent our recognising the broad outlines of its summer and its winter.

100

CHAPTER II

THE PERIODS OF CIVILISATION

11-12

TO learn what the nature of any recurring phenomenon may be, we should examine the longest series of its revolutions and see what they have in common. In Egypt we can trace the past of man in continuous history for over seven thousand years, and can put in order a prehistoric age which may well extend our view to about ten thousand years. Over the whole of that time we know what were the products of every century. In that long range of vision we can discern eight successive periods of civilisation, each separated by an age of barbarism or decline before and after it. Here, then, the discoveries of the last twenty years have put in our hands a series which is sufficient to enable us to compare periods together, and learn what they may have in common. We shall here note these periods by Roman numerals I to VIII; and the stages in other countries which may be contemporary will bear the same numbers.

(5) THE 1ST PERIOD: PREHISTORIC

Apart from the palaeolithic flint age, which cannot be treated consecutively. the beginning of the continuous civilisation of Egypt is seen in the shallow circular pits which each contain a body doubled up, with a goat's skin thrown over it and a simple pot and saucer at its side. Shortly after this stage a variety of pottery appears, all of the same materials, among which are red cups and vases decorated with white cross lines, like the modern Algerian ware. This painted pottery gives us the best material for observing the changes of the age, as it is fairly abundant, and has been already classified into several stages by its relations to other kinds of pottery. We see in the earlier examples of this pottery (fig. 4) the careful imitation of basket-work lines, with the central circle on which the basket was built. In the middle stage the circle is dropped; the decoration has almost freed itself from the basket origin, and has become a clear and independent design, a Maltese cross with sprigs between the arms. In the late stage only an unintelligent degradation of the basket pattern has survived. Thus, in this most remote age, there is proof of the rise of ornament from natural imitation, the development of it as pure ornament, and its decay in unintelligent copying. The few remains from this age of any artistic bearing do not suffice to trace a regular sequence like this in other materials. But the general style of the pottery was rising in character and variety for some time, and the work in hard stones and flint was largely developed. The connections of this age are with the West, in the style and decoration of the pottery.

13-14

EGYPT. 1ST PERIOD.

EARLY

MIDDLE

LATE

4. GROWTH AND DECAY OF PATTERNS ON WHITE SLIP BOWLS.

(6) THE 2ND PERIOD: PREHISTORIC

A new order arises with various eastern connections. Almost every kind of product was changed. The older pottery ceased to develop new types, and only lingered on in decay; by its side a coarser style appears with entirely new decoration in red. Stone vases changed from tubular to barrel shapes. The forms of flints, of slate palettes, of ivory working, and the material of beads, all start afresh. The burials are all single, instead of two or more together, as in earlier times. Throughout this later time a continuous decay may be seen (fig. 5), which we can illustrate by the forms of slate palettes, degrading from the tortoise or fish to a senseless outline, and the rise and decay of flint working, which was the special art of this age. The degradation of all the products down to the close of the period is very marked, not only in those here illustrated, but also in the abundant pottery, which became coarse and rough, without any artistic feeling.

(7) THE IIIRD PERIOD: O-IIND DYNASTIES

The distinctive art of Egypt begins to appear shortly before the 1st dynasty. Hieroglyphic writing was being rapidly developed from an ideographic stage, and we see the rise of a bold, naturalistic style of sculpture. The archaic stage is seen in the vigorous figure of a warrior (fig. 6), carrying his standard and flourishing his double-headed axe. By the time of Mena, who founded the 1st dynasty, the carving was emerging from the archaic, though not yet free.

101

THE PERIODS OF CIVILISATION

21-23

finest tomb; the sixth is from the worst tomb, even inferior to those that follow. The best hardstone vases are of the middle of the dynasty, the softer stones are commoner at the close of the dynasty, while stone vases are much scarcer in the IIInd dynasty, and in the IIIrd only soft alabaster is found. In every respect, therefore, the beginning of the Ist dynasty is archaic, the early middle is the finest age, and from that onwards there is only a little fluctuation in the decay. The sculpture of the early third dynasty in Sinai is the rudest there, and is unspeakably worse than the excellent figures from the first dynasty.

(8) THE IVTH PERIOD: IIIRD-VTH DYNASTIES

There now arises the great age of the Pyramid Builders, at the close of the IIIrd dynasty. The rise of the art was probably as rapid as in the Ist dynasty. There is an interval of only 130 years in the lists between the king whose work is the worst (Neterkhet) and the almost perfect art of Sneferu. Unfortunately we have no examples definitely dated to the rise of this art, but we can see the remains of its archaic period in the portrait of Queen Mertitefs (fig. 10). The careful working of detail separately, without treating it as part of a whole to be blended

EGYPT. GROWTH OF IVTH PERIOD.

IO. QUEEN MERTITEFS, CAIRO.

II. PRINCESS NEFERT. CAIRO.

22-25

together, is the essential mark of archaism. The well-known head of Nefert (fig. 11) must, again, appear as the earliest figure of the pyramid age which is perfectly free in execution. An example of the relief sculpture is shown in the vigorous design of the boatmen (fig. 12). In contrast to this, we see how low this art sank in the early part of the XIth dynasty by the figure of Antefa (fig. 13). Every stage of gradual decay can be traced through the intervening age.

These changes in the art agree with the state of the architecture. It rose to its greatest accuracy of work, and boldest handling of immense masses, in the generation which saw the statue of Nefert; and from that point there was continuous decline. The buildings were less in size and inferior in work, until in the VIth dynasty the masses of the pyramids were merely of loose rubble. In the rest of this period no pyramids are known, the small brick ones in the XIth dynasty rather belonging to the rise of the next period. As Mr. Griffith has remarked, "The art of engraving monumental inscriptions had deteriorated greatly as early as the VIth dynasty all over Egypt, even in the centres of civilisation; . . . from the VIth to the XIth dynasty the barbaric stelae present many extraordinary attempts to render the half-forgotten signs in detail. With the monu-

EGYPT. DECAY OF IVTH PERIOD.

12. FIGHT OF BOATMEN. VTH DYN. CAIRO.

13. ANTEFA. XIth DYN. DENDEREH.

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REVOLUTIONS OF CIVILISATION

27-29

mental revival at the end of the XIth dynasty
the knowledge of hieroglyphs 'revived" (Petrie,
*Dendereh*, 53).

(9) THE VTH PERIOD :

VIIth-xIVth dynasties

This period opens with a minute attention
to detail, much like the archaism of the pre-
Persian sculptures in Greece. The varieties of
growth can be best seen in the sculptures from
Dendereh, and a well-advanced example is the
tablet at Marseille (fig. 14). The rise of this
new art was rapid up to its full beauty in the
XIIth dynasty. The XIth dynasty may have
occupied, at most, two centuries from its first
princedom, and the old style lasted well into
its early stages. Probably the whole rise occu-
pied only a century, and certainly not more
than a century and a half.

Under Amenemhat I, the most delicate low
relief was in use, as in the head of Min shown
here (fig. 15). The hard modelling and bad
proportion of the XIth dynasty head has de-
veloped rapidly into the most refined relief.

By the latter part of the XIIth dynasty
there was a manifest decline, as for instance
in the head of Amenemhat III here given
(fig. 16). The continuous series of scarabs
shows the same decline; finest and most perfect

EGYPT. GROWTH OF VTH PERIOD.

14. HEAD OF HOTIITU. MARSEILLE.

15. HEAD OF MIN. UNIV. COLL., LONDON.

28-31

under Senusert I, they steadily became
coarsened down to the end of the dynasty,
and those of the XIIIth and XIVth dynasties
show a continued decadence. The best sculp-
ture of the XIIIth dynasty kept up some of
the earlier style, but was weak and formal,
as in the figure of Neferhotep (fig. 17). The
later stages of this period are lost in the dark-
ness of civil confusion and decay, finally closed
by the Hyksos invasion.

(10) THE VIth PERIOD :

XVTH-XXTH DYNASTIES

This age is the best known, owing to the
profusion of remains, especially at Thebes.
Of the archaic stage one of the most vigorous
examples is the scene of dancers (fig. 18), which
resembles the coffin paintings of the XVIIIth
dynasty. In the XVIIIth dynasty there were
several stages with different styles. At first
a delicate and ingenuous type prevailed, es-
pecially on the statuettes, as in the head here
shown (fig. 19). The foreign conquests, which
brought in Syrian influence, changed the type.
The best example of its portraiture is that of
Tahutmes III (fig. 20); and after his time
greater richness of material and variety of
colour was reached, but with a less decided
style. The great break of the naturalism of

EGYPT. DECAY OF VTH PERIOD.

16. AMENEMHAT III. CAIRO.

17. NEFERHOTEP III. BOLOGNA.

104

THE PERIODS OF CIVILISATION

37-33

Akhenaten, and the revulsion from it, closed the dynasty. After that there was only continuous decay, as seen in the later sculpture of Ramessu II (fig. 21).

(II) THE VIIth PERIOD:
XXIst-XXXIIInd DYNASTIES

The scarcity of statuary prevents our seeing the lowest stage of the new period. The statue of Amenardys (fig. 22) has, however, some heaviness and lack of proportion, which afterwards disappears. The XXVth dynasty excelled in portraiture, such as the basalt head here shown (fig. 23). Its reliefs, though without the real vitality of the Old Kingdom which supplied the model, yet show considerable grace and ingenious design, as in the row of bearers carrying farm produce (fig. 24). The depth to which this art sank may be guessed from the head of a Roman statue (fig. 25), which is by no means the worst of its kind. Greek and Roman art was too incongruous to be a prop to Egyptian design, and the old style passed away for ever.

(12) THE VIIIth PERIOD: THE ARAB

How base the style became is painfully seen in the Coptic sculpture (fig. 26). The influences upon it were the decayed classical, and the EGYPT. GROWTH OF VIth PERIOD.

18. FRESCO OF DANCERS. XVIIth DYN. OXFORD.

19. HEAD OF STATUETTE. TURIN.
SEE ARCHAIC, VIIth PERIOD, FIG. 39.

38-35

Persian art; and it is curious how the geometrical style of the Arab art is anticipated in the straight lines and mechanical curves of the Coptic figures.

The Muslim, abandoning all animate forms, cannot be judged in the same manner as the workers of earlier periods. We must turn to his architecture for comparisons of style. The early work, as in the Citadel and fortifications of Cairo, might almost pass as one with the Norman, which was contemporary with it in Europe. The gate Bab-el-Futuh shown here (fig. 27) was built in 1087, the period of the Tower of London and Malling Abbey; for other comparisons see Chapter IV. The squares of pattern on the arch follow in pairs on opposite sides, but without any repetitions in either side, just as in the pairs of mosaic bands along the walls of the Cathedral at Monreale. Note the grand relieving arch, high above the gate-way arch. Coming down to the full-blown period of the XIVth century, that of the Decorated style in England, we see (fig. 28) in the porch of the entrance of Sultan Hasan's mosque (1358), the development of elaborate bracketing around the recess, to contract the span sufficiently to throw a safe arch over it. The relieving arch has shrunk to a useless band of masonry. Next, the decay of this design is shown (fig. 29) in the gate of Kait Bey (1480),

EGYPT. DECAY OF VIth PERIOD.

20. TAHUTMES III. BASALT. CAIRO.

21. RAMESSU II. RED GRANITE LUQSOR.

105

CHAPTER IV
THE FLUCTUATIONS

81-82

(18) EGYPT AND EUROPE CONTEMPORARY

THE many recurrences of civilisation in Egypt and in Europe which we have observed, suggest the question as to how far these changes are contemporary—that is to say, in the same phase at one time.

To take the most recent age, we may compare some of the best-known buildings of the VIIIth period.

EAST. ENGLAND.

The massive fortifications.

<table><tr><td>Cairo Gates, 1087-1091.</td><td>Tower of London, 1078.<br/>Newcastle, 1080.</td></tr></table>

The beginning of lighter style.

<table><tr><td>Cairo Citadel, 1183.</td><td>Canterbury choir, 1180.</td></tr><tr><td>Dome of the Rock, 1189.</td><td>Lincoln choir, 1186.</td></tr></table>

End of good enrichment.

<table><tr><td>Mosque of Sultan Hasan,<br/>Cairo, 1362.</td><td>Trinity College,<br/>Cambridge, 1350.<br/>Gloucester choir, 1350.</td></tr></table>

Overloaded decoration, pendentives.

<table><tr><td>Tomb of Kait Bey, 1474.</td><td>Crosby Hall, 1470.</td></tr><tr><td>Palace of Yeshbek, 1476.</td><td>St. George's, Windsor, 1476.</td></tr></table>

It will be seen that, even as far apart as Egypt and England, right across Europe, the developments of the two architectures were as nearly contemporary as we can estimate them. There was certainly not a century of discrepancy.

In the VIth period it is difficult to date the Egyptian position; for there are very few dated sculptures after 1000 B.C., until we reach Ptolemaic times, when Greek influence prevailed. The new style was beginning by 600 B.C., was strong by 550, and had fully developed by 525 at the Persian invasion. On the Greek side the architecture was strong before 600 B.C. (Corinth, Selinus), and fully developed by 500 (Agrigentum), though sculpture did not well develop till 500, or lose its archaism till 450 B.C. In this period, therefore, the Egyptian phase was half a century or a century before the Greek phase, doubtless due to the much larger amount of older models known to the Egyptian.

In the VIth period the archaism disappears in Egypt about 1550 B.C.; a free style is reached by 1500, and decadence is clear by 1300. At Knossos the highest point of this period is at the close of the second palace, which by its Egyptian connections was about 1500 B.C.; and the Tell-el-Amarna pottery of 1370 B.C. belongs to the decadence in Crete. Here we may say that there is not a century of discrepancy in the phase of the two countries.

The Vth period in Crete has its middle stage linked with the middle of the XIIth dynasty in Egypt, and from the time of its decadence

83-84

there comes a statuette of the XIIIth dynasty. The phase was therefore the same within two or three centuries; but the material does not define the connection closer than that.

For the IVth period the later stage of it in Crete is linked, by the seal patterns, with the VIth-VIIIth dynasties in Egypt. And the IIId period in Egypt has pottery which seems to have been imported from Crete, where it is found in the "sub-neolithic," or stratum immediately on the neolithic level, and before any palace buildings. The Ist and IIInd periods of Egypt are yet to be sought in the 25 feet of ruins of the neolithic age at Knossos, or 15 feet at Phaistos.

Thus it seems that the phase of the wave of civilisation was identical in Egypt and Europe to within a century, where it can be observed in three periods; and that in three earlier periods it was generally connected, and may have been identical. The Mediterranean and Egypt, as a whole, form therefore a single group in the history of civilisation.

(19) LENGTH OF PERIOD

The length of period thus shown by the sculpture is next to be considered. Here the question of early chronology comes in, which has been fully discussed this year in "Historical Studies" (British School in Egypt); I shall therefore take it as there stated. No valid reason has yet been given for abandoning the history written by the Egyptians, which is strongly supported by external evidence at each stage, and was accepted by all the older Egyptologists.

The best-defined position in the development of art is the close of the archaic age in sculpture, when a perfect harmonising of the several parts is first reached. This is independent of personal taste, which may prefer this stage, or the archaic rather before it, or the full-blown glory rather later. We may take the close of the archaic at the following dates:—

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th>INTERVAL.</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>VIIIth period, A.D. 1240</td><td>—1690</td></tr><tr><td>VIIth period, B.C. 450</td><td>—1100</td></tr><tr><td>VIth period, B.C. 1550</td><td>—1900</td></tr><tr><td>Vth period, B.C. 3450</td><td>—1300</td></tr><tr><td>IVth period, B.C. 4750</td><td>—650</td></tr><tr><td>IIId period, B.C. 5400</td><td></td></tr></tbody></table>

113

REVOLUTIONS OF CIVILISATION

85-86

Thus the average period is 1330 years: the shortest about half that amount, and the longest about half as long again.

(20) CURVES OF EGYPTIAN AND EUROPEAN ART

We can now give some appreciation of the waves of art in the successive periods (fig. 53).

53. WAVES OF ART, IN EGYPT AND EUROPE.

It is, of course, a more or less personal matter how far certain periods are to be ranked on the same, or on a different, level. But the judgment of it is very constant, as my estimate made eleven years ago, and not referred to since, is almost identical in height of curves and in form of rise and fall, except in one or two details, where later discoveries have added to our knowledge, and in the addition of the waves III to V on the European side, which were then quite unknown.

The upper curve at the beginning shows the fluctuations in Egyptian art. The IIId period (1st dynasty) is intermediate in quality between the IVth and Vth periods (IVth and XIIth dynasties). Its art is as good as the IVth period, and much better than the Vth; but its architecture is inferior to either. The VIth period (XVIIIth dynasty) is rather inferior in every way to the Vth. The decadence from it scarcely rises up to the VIIth period, the whole excellence of which is derived from copying. The VIIIth period (Arab), which has no sculpture in Egypt, it is impossible to assess, except by the general artistic products of architecture and metal work. Judged by these, it may fairly be put as equal to the VIIth (Saite) period.

There is another way also to compare these periods. The crest of one wave is on the same level as part of the decline of another wave; and the art of the two points should be equivalent. For instance, the highest of the Vth period (XIIth dynasty) is equal to 800 years down the IVth period (or the middle of the Vth dynasty), and this seems fair. Similarly, the highest of period III is equal to 300 years down period IV (or the beginning of the Vth dynasty). Period VI (XVIIIth dynasty) is ranged as equal to 150 years down period V (or the middle of the XIIth dynasty). Similarly, the Saite period (VIIth) is reckoned equal to that of Rameses II. This may be a low estimate of

87-88

it, but as all the good work at that date is only copying, we could hardly rank it higher.

The lower curve at the beginning is that of European art, which rises to be the higher at the end. As all architecture and sculpture since 1500 has been mere copying and playing variations, without any continuous natural development, the last four centuries are omitted as being very variously appreciated. For my own part, I should regard this VIIIth period as declining like the others, without taking into account an entirely artificial archaistic revival of the last fifty years, which has no root in the feelings of the majority, and will die like all mere fashions. No doubt in Hadrian's time they worshipped archaistic Minervas as the revival of beauty. All this, however, is only a personal opinion which I do not care to defend.

The mediaeval wave (VIII) is here ranked as intermediate in value between the Mykenaean (VI) and the Classical (VII). Such heads as Henry the Lion at Brunswick (A.D. 1227), and the Emperor Henry at Bamberg (1240), are more perfect expressions of character, free of conventionality, than anything which the Mykenaean age can show. They are fairly equal to the best portraiture of the 1st century B.C.; and accordingly the crest of the mediaeval wave (VIII) is put as equivalent to 50 B.C. The Mykenaean wave (VI) is put at the level of the Antonines; it is impossible to equate work so much differing in feeling, but we could scarcely say that it was equal to either earlier or later work.

The depth of degradation of the chariot on the Cypriote vase (fig. 37) is certainly below anything in the eighth century A.D. By 600 B.C. there was a considerable rise, as in the Selinus metopes; by 550 almost perfect work was reached, and it is hard to choose between 500 and 450 for the best. The fall of classical work was uniformly continuous from about 400 B.C. to A.D. 200. At each century the work was distinctly poorer than that of a hundred years before it. The rapid descent comes later, after Commodus or Severus, as best seen on the coinage. And the coinage also shows how A.D. 600-800 was the bottom of all in art. In the rise of mediaeval art, Henry I (1135 at Rochester) is below Mykenaean art; Henry II, at Fontevrault (1190), is a great advance, showing only a little archaism; and by 1240 the crest is reached. Such are the grounds for judging the form of the waves of the best-known ages of Europe. That the mediaeval was but little below the classical level may be seen not only in the heads of figs. 43, 44, but also in the technical work of drapery, where we may compare the finest Greek example, the Nikê (fig. 54) with the advancing work of fig. 55,

114

CHAPTER V
RELATIONS OF DIFFERENT ACTIVITIES

94-95

(21) SUBJECTS IN VIIIth PERIOD

SO far we have only looked at Sculpture, as being the most fully represented, and most readily valued, product of civilisation. But it must not be thought that it is the most essential product, or that other activities have necessarily the same phase of wave as we find in sculpture. Most of the other evidences of civilisation appear later than that of sculpture, and our object in this chapter is to estimate the order in which they are evolved and their relation one to another. We begin naturally with the best-known period, that of the last six centuries, and examine the changes in that before looking to earlier periods. The great and important elements of moral ideas and religion are omitted here because they are so largely subjective, and their standards necessarily vary with the requirements of the phase of the civilisation.

Sculpture and Architecture go closely together in all ages, so far as we can see. In sculpture the turning point of freedom has been here set at A.D. 1240, mainly on the strength of the well-dated Bamberg sculptures, which are remote from Mediterranean tradition. In architecture, Salisbury Cathedral stands for the perfect acquirement of freedom and grace without the least trace of over-elaboration. As it was founded in 1220, and completed (without the steeple) before the consecration in 1258, this coincides as closely as possible with the highest point of sculpture. We are here following the test period of the disappearance of archaism, apart from the personal question of appreciation of style.

The next development is that of painting. Some of the drawings by Matthew of Paris, about 1240, are very beautiful, such as the royal marriage (MS. Cott. Nero, D.i), but yet not free of archaism. There is no work of Giotto that is beyond the archaic stage, down to 1330. The chapel of S. Felice at Padua shows that as early as 1379 complete freedom was attained by Altichiero and Jacopo d'Avanzo; they were the earliest masters to stand clear of archaism, which was not fully passed by other men till about 1450. We may say, then, that the turning point in painting is 150 or 200 years later than that in sculpture.

In Literature we must compare only plain prose, as poetry and plays have by their nature an artificial structure. Bacon and Ben Jonson are at the turning point. Bacon, with his high education, retained the archaic structure; while Jonson shows that in popular use archaism had gone, and many of his sentences might have

been written at any later date; 1600 may then be taken as the turning point of freedom in writing, and none can deny that it was the greatest age of vigour in literature.

In Music the development is so much nearer to our own time that it is difficult to estimate it impartially. Perhaps we may say that Haydn was still archaic in most of his life, but steps freely for the first time in his great symphonies of 1790; while Beethoven only shows some memories of archaism rarely in his earlier symphonies, from 1796 onward. Hence, perhaps, 1790 may be accepted as the turning point.

Our difficulty of estimation is still greater in later developments. In Mechanics, or the adaptation of long familiar principles and materials, the full freedom of design was certainly not attained in the earlier railway work. Brunel's tubular bridge, though new, was by no means a perfect adaptation to its requirements. Perhaps Baker's Fourth Bridge may be the typical example of freedom from needless restriction, in meeting one of the oldest needs of man with methods and material already well known, apart from fresh discovery. Or it may be that further work will show that archaism has even clung to that. For the present we may put down 1890 as the close of archaism in mechanics.

It is obvious that in Natural Science discovery is still flowing rapidly, and that our conceptions have by no means outgrown the stage of casting off previous ideas, and only developing what is in hand. Material wealth is also still rapidly on the increase.

We can now summarise the turning points of the freedom from archaism in the VIIIth period as being at—

A.D. 1240 in Sculpture.
, 1400, Painting.
, 1600, Literature.
, 1790, Music.
, 1890, Mechanics.
after , 1910, Science.
, 1910, Wealth.

(22) SUBJECTS IN VIIth PERIOD

The estimation of the dates of these several phases in the previous civilisation of the classical period is next in our view.

The Sculpture we have already estimated, as reaching the turning point at 450 B.C. Painting was of later development, but in the absence of any dated paintings of pre-Roman times, we can only glean a view from the vague descriptions and remarks preserved to us. Polygnotos (460 B.C.), whose style was strictly ethic, seems

96-97

116

DIFFERENT ACTIVITIES

98-99

to have been almost parallel to Giotto in design. The establishment of light and shade and abandonment of flat tints is attributed to Apollodoros (400 B.C.); Zeuxis, by 400 B.C., scarcely adopted correct proportion. By about 350 Parrhasios, and Eupompos with his direct appeal to Nature, seem to have finally left archaism. Apelles appears to have belonged to the later full-blown age, the Raphael of his period. In Italy there is flat tint painting of high quality from Paestum, probably before 400 B.C., for soon after this date the Greeks were conquered by the Lucanians. The more advanced paintings of Vulci and Corneto cannot be dated by history. But there is nothing on this side discordant with the development in Greece. We may take, then, 350 B.C. as the turning point of archaism in painting.

In Literature the close of the archaic style, and development of complete freedom of structure and adaptation of the sentence, might perhaps be put between Thucydides and Xenophon, say at 380 B.C. in Greece. In Italy, on the contrary, it was later, and can hardly be put before Cicero (50 B.C.); we may adopt the mean date of 200 B.C.

In Music our knowledge is almost entirely of its theory, and not of its history of development in practice, so it is useless to try to judge its evolution from archaism.

The Mechanics of the Greeks continued without a break into Roman use. Demetrios Poliorketes (300 B.C.) greatly developed machines for siege purposes (Diod. xx, v). His great siege-tower was 150 feet high; but such a structure does not demand as much resource and ability as the erection of obelisks. Those which Augustus erected were 78 and 71 feet high; that of Caligula, 83 feet; and that of Constantius, 105 feet. To set up such masses seems to prove a greater amount of mechanical facility and structure than is shown by any other Roman work. This skill was continued into the Lower Empire, as seen by the obelisk at Constantinople. In construction the greatest dome (that of the Pantheon), 140 feet across, dates probably from A.D. 120. The basilica of Maxentius (A.D. 310) is only 85 feet across the nave, and, vast as the whole is, it can hardly rank as a bolder work than the Pantheon. The date of full mechanical freedom may thus perhaps be put at the beginning of the first century, with a continuance scarcely abated till the IVth century.

Science, both mathematical and organic, continued to develop into Roman times. Strabo's "Introduction to Geography" (A.D. 20) is excellent in its geometry and its scientific spirit. But Ptolemy (A.D. 150), as a geometer and theoretical astronomer, and as a vast organizer

100-101

of material in geography, gave the final freedom to these sciences. The enormous works of Galen (A.D. 180) did much the same for medical science. It seems doubtful if there was any advance in knowledge after A.D. 200, and, within one or two centuries later, ground was certainly being lost. We may take A.D. 150 as the point of freedom of thought from archaic hypothesis.

In observing Wealth we must either select the maximum of precious metals, or the maximum of invested capital of conveniences of life. Though our facts are very scanty, and our result must be more a general impression than a defined statement, yet the two stages must be kept apart. Alexander plundered the accumulated treasures of the Eastern world in Persia, and Rome gradually stripped the Greek world of all its wealth by conquest and taxation, as well as drawing largely from Gaul and Spain. Probably the 1st or 2nd century A.D. saw the greatest accumulation of gold. Certainly after Aurelius (A.D. 170) there is a sudden drop in the weight of the aureus, and there was no reign with a free coinage of gold except Severus Alexander. This points to the capital stock having been mainly exhausted by A.D. 170, probably by the prodigious waste in gilding during the first two centuries. The drain of buying off the barbarians came later. The maximum of precious metals might, then, be set somewhere in the 1st century, say A.D. 50, before the gigantic waste of Nero's Golden House. The accumulated capital of the means and conveniences of life probably continued to grow till the beginning of the break-up, about A.D. 200. But in the less disturbed provinces, such as Britain, Egypt, and Syria, we can see the most widespread prosperity later, about A.D. 300, as shown by the principal abundance of buildings and settlements of that age.

The turning points of the civilisation of the VIIth period may, then, be stated as follows :—

B.C. 450 in Sculpture.
, 350, Painting.
, 200, Literature.
, 0, Mechanics.
A.D. 150, Science.
, 200, Wealth.

(23) SUBJECTS IN THE VIIth PERIOD

Of the VIIth period we can only judge in detail from Egypt, as the distinctions of succession in Greece are too slightly known in the Mykenaean age.

Sculpture, as we have noticed, passed from its last trace of archaism about 1550 B.C., early in the reign of Amenhotep I. Painting was fully free and natural by 1470, under Tahutmes III.

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CHAPTER VI

THE NATIONAL VIEW OF CIVILISATION

106-107

(26) THE HIGHEST AND LOWEST CONDITIONS

THE comparison of the successive periods may usefully be made by defining the greatest feature of each period in Egypt or Europe, and the nature of the collapse at the close of each period in Europe by conquest.

GREATEST FEATURE.

IV. Power of construction
(IV dynasty).

V. Foreign connections
(XII dynasty).

VI. Utilising of natural products
(XVIII dynasty).

VII. Cataloguing of Nature
(Roman).

VIII. Utilising natural forces
(Modern).

COLLAPSE IN EUROPE.

Extermination of the
conquered (?).

Destruction of ma'es
only (?).

Slavery
(Dorians).

Taking share of property
(North races).

We can thus see the widening of the outlook in the summer of each period, and the amelioration of the collapse in the winter. This is the real nature of human progress.

(27) THE PERIOD IN OTHER CONTINENTS

So far we have only regarded the Mediterranean and European civilisation, which has the same phase throughout. But that is not necessarily the phase in other parts of the world. In, the Euphrates and Tigris system there was always a strong civilisation, which seems to have begun in the highlands to the east of the great valley. The mound of Susa accumulated 26 feet in 4000 years, and if the 50 feet of ruin below that grew at the same rate that would imply a beginning in 12,000 B.C. If it only grew at the rate found in Palestine mounds, then it dates from 6000 B.C. Probably we have to deal with a culture as early as any traced in Egypt.

We cannot here distinguish the phase as exactly as we can on the Mediterranean, and we must merely state the most notable rulers, from the artistic point of view, in each period.

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th>B.C.</th><th>YEARS.</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Enneatum</td><td>4450 (?)</td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td>-700 (?)</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Naramsin</td><td>3750</td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td>-1650</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Khammurabi</td><td>2100</td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td>-1460</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Ashurbanipal</td><td>640</td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td>-1460</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>El Mamun A.D.</td><td>820</td><td></td></tr></tbody></table>

The first of these periods is quite uncertain, as there is nothing to show whether such a stage was not attained earlier. The average of the

108-109

three defined periods is 1520 years, which is not far from the 1320 years' average on the Mediterranean. The time by which the Eastern period anticipates the Western is :—

<table><thead><tr><th>EAST.</th><th>WEST.</th><th>DIFFERENCE.</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>B.C. 3750</td><td>3450</td><td>300</td></tr><tr><td>,, 2100</td><td>1550</td><td>550</td></tr><tr><td>,, 640</td><td>450</td><td>190</td></tr><tr><td>A.D. 820</td><td>1240</td><td>420</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>Average</td><td>365</td></tr></tbody></table>

Thus the Eastern phase, on the whole, keeps about 3½ centuries in advance of the Mediterranean, varying from 2 to 5½ centuries.

These results give some insight into the general meaning of historical conditions. The impression that civilisation always comes from the East is due to the East being a few centuries ahead of the West in its phase. Thus on the rise of a wave the East is more civilised; while on the fall of a wave—which does not attract attention—it is less civilised.

The cause of the constant struggle between East and West is likewise seen to be due to the difference of phases. If Mesopotamia and Europe were in the same phase, there would be a balance of power, as there is around the Mediterranean, when even a political ascendency does not involve a change of population. But with Mesopotamia always leading, it is bound, politically, to overrun the West a few centuries before the rise of the West in each period. The Mediterranean was almost an Arab lake at the time of El Mamun; Persia dominated all the civilised Mediterranean in the sixth century B.C. Yet, on the whole, the West more usually controls the East, because from the time of its maximum, during the gradual decline of each period, it is always on a higher plane than the East.

In some other cases also the period from one wave of greatness to the next can be traced. In India, Asoka had the greatest power known in ancient times, including all India (except the southern tip), Kashmir, Afghanistan, and Beluchistan. This rule was at its height in 250 B.C. The next great age of rule was on the completion of the Mogul Empire (A.D. 1550). The interval is 1800 years.

In Mexico, the highly civilised Maya kingdom is traditionally stated to have been founded in the Xth century B.C. On its fall, it was succeeded by the Toltecs, also highly civilised, in the Vth century A.D. The interval is 1500 years.

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REVOLUTIONS OF CIVILISATION

110-111

Thus the period of a civilisation is :—

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th>PERIOD.</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Mediterranean, average</td><td>1330 years.</td></tr><tr><td>(or, omitting the earliest,</td><td>1500)</td></tr><tr><td>Mesopotamia, average</td><td>1520 ,,</td></tr><tr><td>India, one period</td><td>1800 ,,</td></tr><tr><td>Mexico ,, about</td><td>1500 ,,</td></tr></tbody></table>

It is evident, therefore, that the length of period is practically alike in different parts of the globe suggesting that it is due to the human constitution rather than to external causes. The phase however, varies greatly

(28) THE PHASE BELONGING TO FOLK, NOT TO LAND

Here another enquiry must be made: Does this phase in each place belong to the country or to the people? The only way we can study this is by seeing examples where a whole people have migrated and expelled a race which had a different phase. Does their subsequent history agree with their own old phase, or with that of their new country? We cannot take any modern movements, as we cannot yet see what may be the phase of the immigrants' civilisation; and in early times we do not know enough of the sources or nature of immigrations before the classical period. The large northern movements are out of count, as the northmen seem (by their exquisite early bronze work) to have had the same phase as the rest of Europe.

The few movements which we can examine are those of the Etruscans (if an Asiatic people), the Greeks in Bactria, and the Arabs in Spain. The most curious feature of the Roman history is the disappearance of the civilisation of Etruria. The Etrurian sages themselves put their period as 1100 years, ending at 88 B.C., in the passage which we have quoted in the beginning. Their great civilisation, shown by engineering works, great fortress cities, and richly painted tombs, all vanishes before the Imperial period. When Rome was greatest and Italy was most secure, and had the fullest opportunities for development, Etruria is absolutely a blank page. Cisalpine Gaul—the plain of Lombardy—had some political importance and produced some important men; but not so Etruria. We must see that the Etruscan civilisation was in a phase that was some centuries before that of Greece and Rome. The source of the Etruscans has been endlessly debated; but they certainly were foreign to Italy, and as foreigners they brought with them a phase of civilisation which was not that of the Mediterranean or of Western Europe.

Of the Greeks in Bactria we know little. But certainly for some three or four centuries they show a civilisation which was higher than

the native. Now the East was highly civilised; Persia was far more advanced than Greece at 500 B.C., and probably at 400. For the Greek, therefore, to retain a superiority to the Eastern implies that he kept his own phase, which was two or three centuries later.

The Arabs in Spain are strangely neglected in current histories. To write of mediaeval Europe without them is to ignore the principal civilisation of the period. The fullest histories, the strongest literature, the largest life, were all south of the Pyrenees throughout the Dark Ages. Yet this civilisation occupies five lines out of five hundred pages in the best-known handbook on that period. We read, in the Arab historians, of different kings having elaborate gardens with every variety of plant; of the literary academy to whom new poems were recited; of the fund for the endowment of learned men, and the attraction of scholars from all parts of the world. The crowning glory was the library of Al Hakem, who in 970 A.D. entirely filled a palace at Cordova with books sought from the whole known world. The classified shelves of this library held 600,000 volumes, all catalogued and in order. The political power was rather earlier, as its greatest extent was when Abd er Rahman reached the middle of France in 732. When we look further, we see that by 1030 they deplore the rapid deterioration of the people; and by 1144 a democratic system began, setting up and overthrowing rulers with great frequency by the power of the *vox populi*. This regular feature of a decaying civilisation shows that it had certainly passed all its stages of growth and glory. These dates of political power, literature, and decay entirely conform to the Mesopotamian phase, and are contrary to the European phase.

Thus, apparently in the case of the Etruscan in Italy and of the Greek in the East, and certainly among the Arabs in Spain, it is seen that the phase of an intrusive people is that of their source, and not that of their new region. The phase of civilisation is inherent in the people, and is not due to the circumstances of their position.

When the phase of each group of civilisation has been further defined, it may be possible to use the phase of civilisation as a criterion of the source of an invading people. The instance already noted of the Etruscan phase, illustrates this; their greatest power was about 600 B.C., which was that of the phase of Mesopotamian civilisation. Possibly the phase clings to a race for ages; certainly the most flourishing period of mediaeval Tuscany was earlier than that of the rest of Italy by a few centuries, just as it had been earlier in the classical times.

In connection with this, it may be noted how the conquest and settlement of each

112-113

120

NATIONAL VIEW OF CIVILISATION

114-115

country of Europe by Rome is reflected in its later history. The order of Roman influence was Italy, Spain, France, England, Germany; and this is the order of political power of these countries in the last few centuries.

(29) THE BREAKS BETWEEN PERIODS

The next question is that of the separation of one period from another. We have represented the wave of civilisation as falling to a minimum, and then suddenly rising again. To what is this change due? In every case in which we can examine the history sufficiently, we find that there was a fresh race coming into the country when the wave was at its lowest. In short, every civilisation of a settled population tends to incessant decay from its maximum condition; and this decay continues until it is too weak to initiate anything, when a fresh race comes in, and utilises the old stock to graft on, both in blood and culture. As soon as the mixture is well started, it rapidly grows on the old soil, and produces a new wave of civilisation. There is no new generation without a mixture of blood, parthenogenesis is unknown in the birth of nations. Further on we shall deal with some of the natural results of this condition.

We will now review the breaks between the periods in Europe and in Egypt, to show the reasons for the broad statement just made. The movements of peoples always extend over some centuries, and we can only adopt the dates at which the actual race-mixture seems to have occurred.

The break between the classical and mediaeval periods, VII. and VIII, is the most familiar. It is needless to detail here the continuous flow of migrations from the north of Europe to the south, and from the Asiatic side westwards; between A.D. 300 and 600, fifteen different races broke bounds, belonging to half a dozen different stocks (see *Migrations*, Huxley lecture, 1906). We here take 450 A.D. as the main date of mixture, though much was going on for two centuries before that, and also after it.

The beginning of the classical period (VII), and the close of the Mykenaean (VI), has been partly understood from recent discoveries. The old tradition of the "Return of the Herakleidai," is placed about 1200 B.C. The Cretan civilisation is supposed to have been swamped during the alliance wars on Egypt, 1194 B.C. The Egyptian connections with Greece by dated objects all cease at this date. Hence 1200 B.C. may be taken as the date of the main change.

The breaks from the Middle Cretan (V) to the Late Cretan or Mykenaean (VI), and from the Early Cretan (IV) to the Middle Cretan (V), were at approximately the dates of the breaks

116-117

in Egypt, but cannot be otherwise dated from Greek sources.

In Egypt the change from period VII to VIII, is particularly definitely fixed by the Arab invasion in 641 A.D. After the main body other tribes of Arabs came in, down to the ninth century; on the other hand there had been a filtering before the great migration, as Arab horsemen were Roman auxiliaries in Egypt many centuries earlier.

The break of the VIth period is not well defined in Egypt, but was made up of various immigrations, starting the VIth period with Easterners, 950 B.C., Ethiopians, 750 B.C., and Libyans from then onward.

The VIth period was brought in by the Hyksos migration, 2600 B.C. There had been a filtering in of Eastern people before, and two Mesopotamians even became kings of Egypt; also there was probably a constant flow of further immigrants, as exemplified by Teraḥ and Abram, about four or five hundred years later. Probably we might date the mixture of Hyksos as beginning about 2600 B.C.

The Vth period is indicated by the collapse of Egyptian work after the VIth dynasty; and the appearance, at the close of the VIth dynasty and onwards, of foreign button-seals, which are connected with the Cretan products, 4000 B.C.

The IVth period, of the pyramid builders, apparently began with the IIId dynasty. There is continuous decline in work down to the close of the IInd dynasty, and early in the IIId; yet by the end of the IIId dynasty there had arisen the finest Egyptian art. The break indicated by the change of dynasty is doubtless the coming in of the new period. This is dated to, 5000 B.C.

The rise of the IIId period is lost in the darkness of the predynastic age. The highest point of the sculptor we have shown (by the hawks) to belong to Zer, 5400 B.C. Before that there was 150 years to the beginning of the 1st dynasty, and 350 years of kings before that (dynasty O), making 500 years recorded before the age of the best sculpture. But this is only the time of a settled rule, and the duration of the confusion of the conquest has to be added, perhaps a century more.

The invasion dates, when a new period of civilisation is started, may be compared with the sculpture phases thus :—

<table><thead><tr><th>PERIOD.</th><th>INVASION.</th><th>GROWTH.</th><th>SCULPTURE.</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>III</td><td>6000 ?</td><td>600 ?</td><td>5400 B.C.</td></tr><tr><td>IV</td><td>4960</td><td>150</td><td>4750</td></tr><tr><td>V</td><td>4000</td><td>550</td><td>3450</td></tr><tr><td>VI</td><td>2600</td><td>1050</td><td>1550</td></tr><tr><td>VII</td><td>1200</td><td>750</td><td>450</td></tr><tr><td>VIII</td><td>450</td><td>800</td><td>1240 A.D.</td></tr></tbody></table>

121

REVOLUTIONS OF CIVILISATION

118-119

It is obvious that the pyramid builders came
in upon the early dynastic people abnormally
soon; taking only 150 years to rise to a fresh
maximum. We know so little of the historical
conditions, that we cannot see the meaning of
this. Perhaps it should be rather regarded as
a double maximum of one period, divided in the
same way as the classical age was parted into a
Greek and a Roman maximum.

(30) THE DIAGRAM OF PERIODS

We are now in a position to review all the
dates for the various phases of each period
in a combined diagram (see fig. 57 at end).
Each period is shown by a line sloping down
toward the right hand. The scale of the period
runs along the line, as marked in the bottom
period, and the line slopes down according
to the vertical scale ruled in millennia. Thus
each line of a period ends at the same level as
the next period line begins. These period
lines may be looked on as a continuous spiral
around a cylinder, divided at each invasion.
The purpose of thus arranging the facts is to
enable all of the periods to be readily compared
in their main features. There is no absolute
fixing of the successive lines of periods one
below the other. Many different adjustments
might be made, and one must be arbitrarily
selected. The rise or close of each period
(the ends of the period-lines) are not satis-
factory, for a period may come to an abrupt
break, as did the VIth. None of the phases
of a period are so well defined as the close of
archaism, and attainment of complete freedom,
in sculpture. The later the period the more
the various phases diverge, and it is not well
to place the earliest of the phases in a vertical
column, as the other phases will spread so
far to the right in later periods. The fairest
arrangement for comparison seems to be
to take the best-defined phase—the sculpture—
as the connecting link, and to set the sculpture
phases one below the other in a line square
with the slope of the period lines. The earlier
periods are necessarily based upon the Egyptian
examples, and the later periods upon the
European examples, as being the best-defined
in each case. So much for the construction
of the diagram.

Now we turn to reading the diagram, and
drawing conclusions from it. The first striking
feature is the much wider spread of the phases
as the periods descend. This means that
there are lesser intervals of barbarism between
the civilisations, and that the civilisation
phase in each period is longer at each re-
currence. This is in accord with the common
idea that the world is getting more civilised

120-121

as the ages go on, in spite of the crushing fact
that in many kinds of civilisation the successive
recurrences show no improvement. Egyptian
construction is as good in the IVth period
as anything done in the four later periods.
Art is as good in the IVth or VIth or VIIth
as it has ever been later, though differing in
its nature. Thus, while the best work in art
is no better in successive periods, the total
amount of civilisation is greater, because it
is longer. The gain is in quantity and not
quality.

Another result of this widening out of the
phases is to separate the best period of each
form of culture. Thus in the early days the
arts of sculpture and painting, mechanics,
and wealth, were all nearly contemporaneous.
Hence there was artistic mechanics, executed
by wealth. But as the phases space out
further, the art is decadent before the
mechanical ability is free, and before the wealth
has grown. Hence the increasingly tasteless
use of wealth by the late Mykenaean, the
Roman, or the modern man. A strange feature
of these successive periods is the sudden raid
of northerners, that breaks through to the
south of Europe in the midst of the most
flourishing age, and leaves no permanent
trace. In 1527 A.D. the raid on Rome and its
horrible sacking by the Germans under the
Constable de Bourbon (see "Germans" on
diagram) was the greatest blow the city re-
ceived since Totila. As Gibbon says, "the
ravages of the Barbarians, whom Alaric had
led from the banks of the Danube, were less
destructive than the hostilities exercised by
the troops of Charles the Fifth." In 390 B.C.
the Kelts laid Rome waste with fire and sword,
and in 279 they largely plundered Greece
(see "Kelts" in diagram). In the "Late
Minoan II" period, or 1500 B.C., was the
great catastrophe of the destruction of the
Palace of Knossos, apparently by barbarians,
who, nevertheless, did not interrupt the general
culture. The "Middle Minoan II" period,
about the XIIth Egyptian dynasty, or 3300
B.C., is cut short by a general catastrophe,
which does not hinder the immediate resump-
tion of the civilisation by building the second
palace (Evans, *Essai de Classification*). Thus
in four successive periods—that is, so far
back as our detailed knowledge extends—we
see that southern Europe at its brightest has
been suddenly clouded by a northern storm
which has left no permanent change.

The principal conqueror of each period
has arisen at the same phase. - In period VIII
Napoleon is marked with N below the line,
between Literature and Mechanics. In period
VII Caesar, marked C, is in the same position.

122

NATIONAL VIEW OF CIVILISATION

122-123

In period VI Ramessu II (R) comes at L & M, in the same connection. In period V Senusert III (S), the main Egyptian conqueror in that period, coincides with L.

With regard to the beginning and end of each period, the exact assignment is difficult, as the mixture of the incoming race is usually gradual, extending over a century or more. Hence it is not surprising if we have a couple of centuries' variation in the period of growth before the phase of sculpture. The rather longer interval between the Vth and VIth civilisations is seen to be due to the slower development of the VIth, the Vth ending normally. On the other hand, the short interval between the VIth and VIIth is seen to be due to the violent end of the VIth, cutting off entirely the normal four centuries, or so, of slow decay after the maximum of wealth was attained. Thus the study of the diagram shows clearly what were the exact seats of the irregularities of the periods.

(31) STAGES OF GOVERNMENT

Forms of government are left to the last, as the regulation of daily affairs, and the repression of wrong, is of little meaning in civilisation, when compared with the great formative interests of man's mind, whose phases we have studied. It is true that man thinks and talks much about government, in all ages. But then the concern of man is no measure of the real value of a subject, as appears by his perennial interest in gambling, which now occupies a large part of the printing in this country. So also government is of great concern, but of little import. Constitutional History is a barren figment compared with the permanent value of Art, Literature, Science, or Economics. What man does is the essential in each civilisation, how he ad-

vances in capacities, and what he bequeaths to future ages; the relations between the different classes of a country are merely subsidiary. England, France, and Russia will be remembered by Newton, Pasteur, and Mendelieff, when all their forms of government are forgotten.

At every invasion by a new people, which, as we have seen, is the necessary foundation of a new period of civilisation, there must be strong personal rule. The holding together of the invaders, the decisive subjection of the invaded, the strife of the fusion of peoples, all require an autocracy of greater or less scope. This period lasts during four to six centuries.

The next stage is an oligarchy, when leadership is still essential, but the unity of the country can be maintained by law instead of by autocracy. This stage varies in length; in Greece and Rome it was about four centuries, in Mediaeval Europe about five or six centuries.

Then gradually the transformation to a democracy takes place; beginning about the great phase of literature in Greece, Rome, and Modern Europe. During this time—of about four centuries—wealth—that is, the accumulated capital of facilities—continues to increase. When democracy has attained full power, the majority without capital necessarily eat up the capital of the minority, and the civilisation steadily decays, until the inferior population is swept away to make room for a fitter people. The consumption of all the resources of the Roman empire, from the second century when democracy was dominant, until the Gothic kingdom arose on its ruin, is the best-known example in detail. Such is the regular connection of the forms of government, or the relations of classes, which is inherent in the conditions of the revolutions of civilisation.

123-124

123

CHAPTER VII

125-126

CONDITIONS OF CIVILISATION

127-128

(32) ADVANCE THROUGH STRIFE

IN another point of view the periods of civilisation bear a fresh meaning. There is no advance without strife. Man must strive with Nature or with man, if he is not to fall back and degenerate. The harder a nation strives, the more capable it will be. This is not only the slow result of selection, but it is the immediate result in each individual, produced by the attitude of his mind. The Northern nations, accustomed to striving against climate, thrive vastly when they get into easier countries, until their tone is let down to their conditions. Hence almost all migration is from colder to warmer climates. And within the same country—as in England at present—there is a steady flow of families pushing south.

This necessity of striving implies a rapid advance during the centuries after an invasion. There is the whole organization of the new period to be evolved by continual strife of ideas and personalities, there is the new civilisation to be evolved by striving of ideals until a definite platform is reached. So soon as each subject loses its archaism and reaches full freedom of expression, there is no more strife with difficulties and uncertainties of mode; then, strife being ended, decay sets in shortly after.

Further the accumulation of the facilities of life, or capital in every form, diminishes the need for striving. There is so much the less worth striving for, there is so much more to enjoy without strife. Hence, the easier life is rendered, the more easy is decay and degradation. The maximum of wealth must inevitably lead to the downfall.

(33) CAUSES OF PERIOD

We have now seen how general is the regular recurrence of civilisation in all countries that we have examined, and how constant is the order of its phases. Another question remains to us, Why is this period so far regular? What determines the spring, summer, and autumn of the Great Year?

The first and most obvious cause would be periodical changes of climate. The American expedition to Turkestan has brought to light regular cycles of wet and dry climate there; and Mr. Huntington has pointed out the effects of such cycles of climate in Western Asia and Greece (R. Geog. Soc., 26 May, 1910). It is clear that such changes have an

effect in precipitating upon the richer lands the pastoral races, who live on lands too dry for agriculture. We find an age of famines along with such movements, and continuing after them. The Hyksos movement from the Arabian plains was followed by famine in Syria, and then seven years' famine in Egypt. The Arab movement started from a great famine in A.D. 600, followed by famines during four centuries, in 866, 873, 928, 929, 969, 970, 1025, 1055, 1065, yearly, to 1072, and then some sporadic famines in 1201, 1264, 1295. These were caused by the low Nile in Egypt, which implies a short supply in Abyssinia. Thus the increased dryness does accompany an age of migration, and may be one cause for it.

But that will not account for the regular phases already described. Nor can it account for a race keeping to its own phase, when it has passed into a country of a different phase, as we have noticed.

There may be a normal rate of change from stage to stage, produced by the process of the human mind. Each generation may average a certain extent of change, as each year averages a certain amount of growth or decay in the body. Yet against this as an entire cause there is the alteration in the closeness of the phases; the different activities were grouped much more closely together in early times, they are by now separated by some generations each. This may imply that each subject is more elaborately developed as it comes forward, and absorbs all the best intellect for a longer time, and so postpones the rise of the next subject.

There is, however, another possible cause of the length of period. The rise of the new civilisation is conditioned by an immigration of a different people. That is to say, it arises from a mixture of two different stocks. That effect of mixture cannot take place all at once. There are barriers of antipathy, barriers of creed, barriers of social standing, but every barrier to race-fusion gives way in time, when two races are in contact. Even if every marriage in the first generation was a mixed one, that would only give two elements of the needful fusion to each child; and what seems to be needed is an ancestry of all the elements of two different races completely intermingled to produce a new era of activities. Now, if generations average 30 years, we may take it that each man has 10 ancestors a century ago, apart from related marriages. Hence each man has a million ancestors in six centuries,

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CONDITIONS OF CIVILISATION

129-130

100 millions in seven centuries, 100 millions in eight centuries. Thus (apart from related marriages) seven or eight centuries of mixture of two races ensures that, in any ordinary-sized country, the full maximum number of different ancestors are blended, and every strain of one race has crossed with every strain of the other. This is the period of greatest ability, beginning about eight centuries after the mixture, and lasting for four or five centuries in different subjects. The extension of the time may well balance the delay in mixture due to related marriages. Thus we may say that the complete crossing of two races produces the maximum of ability, and that, from that point, repeated generations diminish the ability. This may well be the basal cause of the length of period which we have noticed, as it well accords with it in the time required. But probably each of the other causes before noted may bear a part. For instance, a dry period and famine may precipitate a migration which cuts short a civilisation, as in period VI.

(34) THE FUTURE

And what of the Future? We have at last a fairly consistent view of the whole system of civilisation, its causes of development, its stages of growth and decay. How far can that suggest the future? This is by no means a fatalist view; for there is as much difference between an unhealthy and a healthy civilisation—as much to care for and strive for—as there is between a man worn out by middle life and one who is vigorous and useful to a green old age.

If we look at the diagram of all the stages (fig. 57) we see that the widening apart of the stages means that wealth of improvements can be accumulated later in each stage, and the

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maximum of wealth in Europe promises in our own stage to reach to near the end of our period, when an entire mixture with another race will be requisite. We do not see any tendency to shorten the stage of growth in the successive periods; that may be because it is conditioned by complete crossing of the two stocks, as we have noticed. So that the production of a new European art, and its subsequent activities, cannot be expected for many centuries.

But are not the conditions of the world so radically altered that no past phenomena will be repeated again? The mixture of race going on in many countries at present will tend to fuse the whole world, owing to the ease of communication which has never existed before. In a few centuries will not the people of every country be blended, and be alike? Hardly so, as the conditions of climate will always make men black or white; the conditions of the countries will always separate pastoral, agricultural, and manufacturing communities. The present rate of spread is the effect of a sudden facility. It will tend to diminish, as suitable conditions are found and established; and a more stable adjustment of population will arise in future. It is parallel to the great diffusion which must have taken place on the development of shipping.

Yet if the view becomes really grasped, that the source of every civilisation has lain in race mixture, it may be that eugenics will, in some future civilisation, carefully segregate fine races, and prohibit continual mixture, until they have a distinct type, which will start a new civilisation when transplanted. The future progress of man may depend as much on isolation to establish a type, as on fusion of types when established.

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Institute of Cycle Research

1951 Session

If you attend the 1951 Institute, you and I will work together intensively to make a cycle analysis and projection of some series of figures of particular interest to you. These figures might be the sales of your industry or of your own company or of some department in your company. They might be the prices of one of your products or raw materials. They might be the prices of some security in which you are interested. If you prefer, we at the Foundation will provide figures.

You and I will use these figures as a vehicle for a full discussion of various methods of cycle analysis. We will discuss and together will actually make moving averages, moving sections, moving percentages, periodic tables, periodograms, and time charts. We will discuss harmonic analysis. We will try to find the cycles in your figures and will then proceed to determine the shape, amplitude, and regularity of the cycles found. We will project the cycles into the future.

Emphasis throughout will be upon the practical application of cycle analysis as a valuable tool for throwing light upon the probabilities of tomorrow.

In the course of the five and a half days, unless your figures are particularly difficult, we will be able to find two or three of the most important cycles, and have them pretty well "licked:" that is, isolated, synthesized, and projected.

You will be provided with everything you need: a desk, your own calculating machine, chart paper, supplies, reference books, and, if you wish it, clerical and secretarial assistance as well.

You and I and not over three other persons will discuss the methods named above, and other methods. If you have done work in this field you will be able to tell the group about it, and pass on to them some of the "know-how" that you have acquired. They, in turn, will tell you and me of the things they have found out.

You will of course have access to all our files and research, except as work may have been done in confidence for someone. You will be free to consult our cycle library which contains many interesting and a few rare items.

Accommodations will be provided in my home or in the homes of friends and neighbors.

See outside back cover for further particulars.

Won't you please tell me your wishes
in connection with the
1951 Institute?

If you want to attend this year's Institute to exchange information in regard to methods and technique of cycle analysis, won't you please write to me at once.

As you doubtless remember, last year's Institute ran for a full week and cost $300, including all expenses except travel. It was quite successful. It inaugurated something that I would like to see continued year after year so that the knowledge of cycle analysis technique can be diffused as much as possible.

For a description of the Institute see the inside back cover.

Everybody seemed to think the fee was about right, but a number of people expressed a preference for a long week end (of course at a lower fee.)

What do you think of the idea of one or more long week ends?

When and where would you like to have the Institute for 1951?

Up to about April 15th, we could have it at Riverside, Conn. After May 15th, we could have it at my summer home north of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (I will meet you in Pittsburgh and drive you up.)

Please write me—

1. Do you prefer (a) a full week or (b) a long week end?

2. In either event, do you want it at Riverside, Conn. prior to April 15th, or Pittsburgh, Penna. after May 15th?

3. Is the price of $300 for a full week or $150 for a long week end (3 days) about right? (Of course you know we have the policy of any or all of your money back if not completely satisfied.)

Time is getting short so let me hear from you at once, for we can take only a limited number of people.