Pantry Rd. R R #2
Sudbury, Mass.

October 16, 1964

Professor Henry Kissinger
Center for International Affairs
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts

Dear Professor Kissinger:

In recognition of the importance of the MLF issue and the possibility
that the decision may soon be made which could commit the United
States to the MLF in a binding manner, the Boston Branch of the Federa-
tion of American Scientists would like to hold a public meeting and dis-
cussion on this topic. Miss Blanchard has expressed to me your
willingness to participate. We would suggest either a talk by you
followed by an open discussion, or a panel discussion followed by the
open discussion. I would like to leave the choice of format to you.
If you prefer a panel discussion, we are open to your suggestions as
to other participants for the panel.

Miss Blanchard indicated that sometime in December might be
best for you and I would like to know your preference as to the evening
that it might be held. Because of the possible imminence of government
action, a date toward the beginning of December might be desirable.

Thank you for your participation.

HARVARD UNIVERSITY

CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

ROBERT R. BOWIE, Director
ALEX INKELES
HENRY A. KISSINGER
EDWARD S. MASON
THOMAS C. SCHELLING
RAYMOND VERNON

6 DIVINITY AVENUE
CAMBRIDGE
MASSACHUSETTS 02138

To: Henry Kissinger
From: Mort Halperin
Date: March 24, 1965

I have looked over the attached and have also previously talked to Kalkstein. My feeling is that we should not be interested.

The study he proposed to do could only be done either as a short essay or as a major research project involving a large number of people. Kalkstein has neither the competence nor the knowledge to do a serious study of the scope he proposes. In talking to him I tried to get him to focus on a much narrower subject perhaps involving one country and using his technical skill. However, he seems determined to try to deal with the whole question of proliferation.

April 5, 1965

Mr. Marvin I. Kalkstein
Pantry Road RR #2
Sudbury, Massachusetts

Dear Mr. Kalkstein:

I have finally had a chance to
get everybody's opinion at the Center
about the study you proposed.

I regret to inform you that because
the allocation of funds for this year
have been skimpier than we expected, we
will not be able to take on so major a
project.

Do stay in touch with me, however.

Kind regards.

JUN 18 REC'D

# DRAFT PROPOSAL FOR PROLIFERATION STUDY

## M. I. Kalkstein

### OBJECTIVES

The main objective of this study is to explore the underlying conditions for regional security and stability as a basis for arriving at non-proliferation agreements. This would include consideration of the advantages and disadvantages associated with the non-possession of nuclear weapons as they apply within such a context. The question of guarantees would be explored, particularly in terms of the viewpoint of recipient nations. It is recognized that guarantees within an isolated context are liable to have little meaning or value. However, in terms of agreements with controls, and perhaps even sanctions, the question can be of significance. In addition, possible inducements that might be offered by the major powers and which might be attractive to the nations concerned, would be considered.

From a technical point of view, the technical prospects, of individual nations, in nuclear fields should be determined.

Consideration can then be given to types of assistance, that can be offered for peaceful uses, which may have the effect of reducing the desirability of maintaining military

options. Finally, in the technical field, an attempt should
be made to find what minimal controls might be acceptable
and effective.

On the political side, a determination would be made
of the types of agreements that these nations might be willing
to sign, the controls that they would ask for and those they
would accept under an agreement.

Finally, the relationship of possible regional non-
proliferation agreements to broader non-proliferation agree-
ments and other arms control and disarmament schemes
would be explored.

APPROACH

Although there are a number of regions of interest in
this regard, the main focus of this study would be on the
Middle East. In this area, questions of defense posture are
tied not only to national security, but to national existence itself.
It is to be expected that consideration of the facets of the problem
for the Middle East should also help to reveal some of the under-
lying factors for other nations.

Initially, available material relevant to the problem will
be studied. The technical literature concerned with the nuclear
plans of the nations involved will be evaluated as a preliminary

2

to studying this aspect in greater detail. An attempt will
be made to study and understand the internal politics of these
nations, as well as that pertaining to their relations with
others.

The next step will be to discuss these matters with
representatives at the United Nations and at the foreign
embassies in Washington. Attempts will be made through
these contacts to schedule meetings with the technical and
political leaders in these countries. Contacts will also be
attempted through other people in this country and elsewhere
who may be helpful.

Visits would then be made to the various countries and
discussions held with those in responsible technical and
political positions. To the extent possible, it will be attempted
to obtain a realistic appraisal of nuclear developments and
future plans. While recognizing the limitations on trying to
obtain a valid political insight into the problems and desires
of nations, political questions would be explored. One of the
intentions of this study would be to get the views within each
country across as broad a political spectrum as is relevant,
in order to arrive at conclusions or positions that might be
valid for each nation as a whole.

3

(e)

STUDY CONCLUSIONS

The data and information from this study would be assimilated and a final report prepared. Factors which should affect a nation's policy concerning possession of nuclear weapons would be detailed and analyzed. Measures that can be adopted to support the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons would be presented, as well as possible measures that could increase regional security and stability in the event of independent nuclear weapons systems. Where applicable, factors and attitudes common to other nations as well would be considered as a means of arriving at broader non-proliferation agreements. The extent to which major nuclear powers can enhance the prospects for non-proliferation, as well as the need for their involvement in such agreements would be explored. Finally, possible non-proliferation agreements including possible controls would be considered, as well as ancillary measures that might be taken in political, technical, and economic areas.

4

6 DIVINITY AVENUE
CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS 02138

To: Henry Kissinger

From: Morton Halperin

Date June 22, 1965

Marvin Kalkstein has secured financing from the Department of Defense for his study. He now plans to concentrate, at least initially, on the Middle East. The money will be coming to us for his use.

I propose the above named, who is personally known to me, as a Candidate for *Membership of the Institute*.

Signature of Proposer

Signature of Seconder

NOTE (1): By the Memorandum of Association of The Institute, which is a Company Limited by guarantee, a Member is liable to contribute to the due debts of The Institute, should it be dissolved during his Membership or within twelve months of his ceasing to be a Member, to an amount not exceeding £1.

NOTE (2): Proposers or Seconders may be called upon to satisfy the Council of the Candidate's qualifications.

PROLIFERATION STUDY

## Objectives

From a technical point of view, the technical prospects, of individual nations, in nuclear fields should be determined. Consideration can then be given to types of assistance, that can be offered for peaceful uses, which may have the effect of relucing the desirability of maintaining military options. Finally, in the technical field, an attempt should be made to find what minimal controls might be acceptable and effective.

- 2 -

Finally, the relationship of possible regional non-proliferation
agreements to broader non-proliferation agreements and other arms
control and disarmament schemes would be explored.

Approach

Although there are a number of regions of interest in this
regard, the main focus of this study would be on the Middle East. In
this area, questions of defense posture are tied not only to national
security, but to national existence itself. It is to be expected that
consideration of the facets of the problem for the Middle East should
also help to reveal some of the underlying factors for other nations.

Initially, available material relevant to the problem will be
studied. The technical literature concerned with the nuclear plans of
the nations involved will be evaluated as a preliminary to studying
this aspect in greater detail. An attempt will be made to study and
understand the internal politics of these nations, as well as that
pertaining to their relations with others.

- 3 -

Study Conclusions

Personnel

This work would be carried out at the Harvard Center for
International Affairs with Professor Henry A. Kissinger as principal
investigator. Dr. Marvin Kalkstein will be principal research associate.
A copy of Dr. Kalkstein's curriculum vitae and a bibliography of his
publications are attached.

In addition, Professor Morton H. Halperin will be available
to consult on political questions.

In addition, Professor Morton H. Halperin will be available
plications are attached.

A copy of Dr. Kalstein's curriculum vitae and a bibliography of his
investigator, Dr. Marvin Kalstein will be principal research associate,
international affairs with Professor Henry V. Kirtanger as principal
this work would be carried out at the Harvard Center for
Personnel

## Personnel

possible controls would be considered, as well as ancillary measures
explored. Finally, possible non-proliferation agreements including
at well as the need for their involvement in such agreements would be
which major nuclear powers can enhance the prospects for non-proliferation,
of arriving at broader non-proliferation agreements. The extent to
attitudes common to other nations as well would be considered at a mean
independent nuclear weapons systems. Where applicable, factors and
that could increase regional security and stability in the event of
of nuclear weapons would be presented, as well as possible measures
analyzed. Measures that can be adopted to support the non-proliferation
policy concerning proliferation of nuclear weapons would be detailed and
and a final report prepared. Factors which should affect a nation's
The data and information from this study would be summarized
in Study Conclusions.

## Study Conclusions