# PART I. THE COMMUNIST POWERS

## THE SOVIET UNION

Population: 225 million

The main lines of Soviet defence policy in 1963 have changed little from those of the preceding two years. The slow build-up of the strategic deterrent force of ICBMs is continuing. Soviet policy still lays stress on high-yield warheads for the small number of missiles available. It would appear that the deployment of MRBMs is now complete. The procurement of the longer-range IRBMs, of the type which were first publicly known to be operational when launching pads for them were built in Cuba in 1962, is probably continuing.

Defence expenditure has increased slightly. This is probably due to the demands of research and development, and to some extent of the modernization of the armed forces. It is notable that the USSR is continuing the procurement of medium-range supersonic bombers which are clearly expected to continue in service for the foreseeable future. Though the Soviet Union has a force of fleet ballistic missiles, it is doubtful whether Soviet claims to have developed a true equivalent to the American *Polaris* submarines can yet be taken literally.

But although the main lines of Soviet policy are unchanged, there have been a number of developments which indicate changes of emphasis, and to some extent of force levels. In the spring of 1963, the Chief of the General Staff, Marshal Zakharov, was replaced by Marshal Biryuzov who had previously held the key posts of chief of Soviet air defence from 1955-62 and commander of the Strategic Rocket Forces from 1962-63. The increasing influence of officers with a scientific background which this indicated is likely to continue. Marshal Malinovsky, the Defence Minister, may be the last of the generation of military commanders whose authority arises from the part they played in the Second World War. It should, however, be noted that the

book *Military Strategy*, edited by Marshal Sokolovsky, has been criticized in the Soviet Union over the past year, not only for ignoring the importance of scientific developments in determining military strategy, but also for paying no attention to the political and ideological factors in maintaining morale and military efficiency. The debate between traditional military leaders and younger technocrats will doubtless continue in the years ahead. From the Soviet viewpoint the most noticeable feature of the Sokolovsky book was perhaps the fact that for the first time it presented an accurate picture to the Russian public of the strategic strength of the United States. The book has been criticized for ignoring the possible circumstances in which nuclear weapons could not be used if war broke out: the significance of this criticism may be revealed when the revised edition of the book appears later this year.

The test-ban treaty is unlikely to inhibit Soviet development and advance in the one field where Soviet prowess is apparently inferior to that of the United States - very low yield nuclear weapons. Official doctrine has, however, laid little stress on these in the past. The treaty may inhibit the anti-ballistic missile programme; but it would appear that the Soviet Union has resigned itself to a period without any effective defence against missiles, and believes that the same will be true of the United States. This resignation seems to be a part of the general Soviet approach to the present strategic confrontation: it appears that the Soviet authorities are debating future policy in terms of their own resources and of the current strategic controversies within NATO before they decide whether any large reorientation of their own policy is necessary.

Meanwhile the Sino/Soviet dispute provides a complicating factor. Apart from 17 Soviet divisions in the Far East, troops already in Central Asia, and a few detach-

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ments beyond Lake Baikal, the Soviet Union has no military formations, other than border guards, along its border with China. There is unlikely to be any shift of forces from Europe or European Russia, but there might be military pressure for a reactivation of the cadre divisions in the Soviet Union, and a reorganization of naval and air defence. It is doubtful whether this policy will be put into effect. In European Russia the reorganization of the Soviet forces has resulted in a reduction of the number of men in uniform rather than an increase. The Soviet Union is also feeling the effects of the low birth-rate of the war years, although the age for compulsory registration was lowered from 18 to 17 in 1962. (The figures of youths of military age will begin to increase again after 1965.) It was announced in September 1963 that all those born in 1944 would now be called up. But the size of the Soviet forces in October 1963 was estimated at a maximum of 3,300,000 men, or 300,000 less than in the autumn of 1962.

The Soviet defence budget for 1963 (calendar year) shows an increase of about 4 per cent over the preceding year, but the proportion of the total budget being spent on defence is about the same. The 1963 defence budget totals $15,400 million. This does not include space or defence research. At a realistic rate of exchange this figure would translate at about $34,000,000,000.

## Rocket Forces

The present figure of operational ICBMs is in the neighbourhood of 100. It is uncertain how many of these are the second generation ICBM which appears to have a storable liquid fuel and which has been under development in recent years. This is likely to be easier to conceal than those of the first generation. The proportion of these in service is probably low. Soviet ICBMs have powerful boosters and larger warheads than their American counterparts.

A number of ICBM sites have now been hardened, but it appears that Soviet policy relies to a great extent both on concealment

and on active defence measures for protection. There is no evidence that the Soviet Union has made any further progress than the United States in developing a reliable anti-missile system at an acceptable cost.

The number of MRBMs is now stable at a total of about 750. These are deployed in sufficient numbers to deal with strategic and semi-tactical targets - such as fighter airfields - in Western Europe, including Britain, and in the Far East. There are two types, one with a range of 700 statute miles, the other with a range of 1,100 statute miles. They are sited near the western, southern and eastern borders of the Soviet Union, on the Pacific coast and in Siberia. The IRBM which has been operational for over a year has a two-stage liquid fuelled engine with a range of 2,100 miles. This force is still building up. The Strategic Missile Forces are now under the command of Marshal Krylov.

## Air Forces

The Air Force comprises about 12,500 operational aircraft, organized into five major components, namely:

(1) The Long-Range Strategic Bomber Force

(2) The tactical, or front-line force, which includes fighters and tactical bombers

(3) The fighter interceptor force of Air Defence Command

(4) The land-based Fleet Air Arm

(5) The air transport force

The heavy bomber force has been kept at a considerably lower strength than that of the US Strategic Air Command, though the general lines of development, including stand-off bombs and missiles, are similar. On the other hand the Soviet Union has built up a very strong force of medium bombers suitable for use all over the Eurasian theatre and its coasts, which may now be in process of reduction, and an efficient light bomber force. The following gives some indication of Soviet air power:

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### (i) Strategic Striking Power

The Strategic Bomber Force consists mainly of the following aircraft:

(a) 70 Turbo-prop Bears* (TU 20); now able to carry one large winged missile.

(b) 1,000 twin-jet medium bomber Badgers (TU 16). In addition the naval air force contains a strike force of about 400 Badgers with winged missiles for ship attack.

(c) A twin-engined supersonic medium bomber, the Blinder, now coming into service with a long-range air-to-ground missile. This is probably a replacement for Badger.

LRAF is grouped in three areas: Western Russia, the Central Ukraine and in the Far East. In addition airfields in the Arctic are maintained for training, dispersal and staging purposes.

### (ii) Tactical Air Power

The USSR probably has about 3,000 tactical bombers (this is a reduction of about 25 per cent on earlier estimates). Older aircraft like the turbojet IL 28 Beagle have now been largely replaced. The Flashlight B with transonic capabilities and a radius of action of about 570 miles has entered into service, and large numbers of a further development of this aircraft, the supersonic Firebar A are operational. A number of other developments indicate the intensive work that has been going on in the field of high performance aircraft. The tactical bomber forces still contain, however, a large proportion of obsolescent aircraft, such as the MiG-15 in a fighter-bomber role. It is basically an interdiction force.

### (iii) Air Defence

The number of ground-to-air guided missiles has steadily increased and an extensive early warning system is in operation. The quality of fighter aircraft in service has also improved. The following are details of air defence weapons:

* The names of Soviet aircraft are of NATO, not Soviet, origin.

### Ground-to-Air Guided Missiles

An anti-aircraft missile which has a slant range of 18 miles.

A two-stage solid fuel missile which has been in service for some time. Its slant range is 20 miles, and it is effective at a height of well over 12 miles (60,000 feet).

There is also a higher altitude guided missile.

### Fighters

The number of operational aircraft is probably about 8,000. The most common standard fighter in air defence formations is the Sukhoi Fishpot C, a supersonic aircraft with four air-to-air rockets. The chief multi-purpose long-range interceptor, which can also carry both bombs and guided weapons, and two long-range air-to-air missiles is the Yakovlev Fiddler. Its maximum speed is about Mach 1.9. A number of other supersonic interceptors have also been developed including Flashlight C.

The most important day fighters are:

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th>Maximum speed<br>m.p.h.</th><th>Ceiling feet</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>MiG 19 Farmer</td><td>900</td><td>55,000</td></tr><tr><td>MiG 21 Fishbed</td><td>1,200</td><td>60,000</td></tr><tr><td>SU 15 Fishpot</td><td>1,300</td><td>60,000</td></tr><tr><td>SU ? Fitter</td><td>1,400</td><td>60,000</td></tr></tbody></table>

The MiG 23 Flipper may now also be in service with a speed of about Mach 2.5.

There are 500,000 men in the Soviet air and rocket forces, a slight reduction on earlier years.

### Land Forces

The size of the Soviet Army and the number of active divisions have been somewhat reduced in recent years as the cost of complex new equipment has come to consume an increasing proportion of the Army's budget, and as the country has encountered endemic manpower problems. The total size of the Army is now estimated at a maximum 2,300,000 men. Some Western authorities believe the Army may now number no more than 2,000,000 men.

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It is organized in about 150 divisions. Geographically their distribution is as follows:

(1) Eastern Europe 26

(2) European Russia 75

(3) Far East 17

(4) Central Russia 32

Of these 150 divisions, about half are capable of undertaking operations without reinforcement, a quarter would need limited reinforcement, whilst the balance, which are at cadre strength, would require major reinforcement.

The Soviet mobilization capacity is large, and in theory all the 150 divisions could be at full strength after 30 days uninterrupted mobilization.

By types of division the distribution would be approximately:

(1) Armoured or tank divisions: 50 (of 9,000 men, 430 medium and heavy tanks at full strength)

(2) Motorized divisions: 100 (11,000 men, 195 medium tanks at full strength)

It will be noted that the size of Soviet divisions has markedly decreased.

The airborne forces total approximately 70,000 men in 9 divisions. The resources of the transport fleet would allow two divisions plus other elements to be air-lifted simultaneously over short to medium ranges.

The 20 Soviet divisions in East Germany (10 tank, 10 motorized) are among those maintained at full strength. There are 2 divisions in Poland (1 tank, 1 motorized) and 4 divisions in Hungary (2 tank, 2 motorized). This force of 26 divisions could be reinforced to a total of some 70 divisions in 30 days if unimpeded by interdiction.

The military value of the satellite armies is hard to assess, despite recent improvements in equipment. Some could undoubtedly be used as a substitute for Soviet divisions if Soviet communications and logistics were disrupted in the event of war.

The major re-organization of the Soviet Army to meet the conditions of nuclear warfare has led to an increase in nuclear firepower and mobility, to a reduction in conventional artillery, and in the overall size of divisions, although this has not

significantly affected their non-nuclear firepower. Tactical missile units are now organic to all formations including the Soviet forces in East Germany. The main emphasis of training continues to be the advance of tank and APC-borne infantry formations across radiation-contaminated ground at an average rate of 60 miles a day. This is in accordance with Soviet doctrine which envisages a major offensive role for the ground forces in the event of nuclear war.

The Soviet Union has not shown as much interest as the United States in the development of very low yield nuclear missiles for tactical purposes, but all the missiles mentioned below are designed to carry nuclear warheads. The Soviet Army also has an offensive chemical capability and is well trained and equipped for chemical defence.

Soviet Army equipment includes:

### (i) Tanks

The standard medium tank (T54/55) has a 100 mm. gun. The 54-ton heavy tank (T.10) has a 122 mm. gun. Soviet tanks can deep wade up to about 15 feet.

### (ii) Artillery

The Soviet Army remains strong in artillery. Field guns are towed and the main types are 85 mm., 100 mm., 122 mm., 130 mm. and 152 mm. The main anti-tank gun is 57 mm. Self-propelled assault guns are becoming obsolescent except in airborne divisions. The Soviet Army has also retained a considerable air defence capability and has surface-to-air missiles, LAA guns and AA heavy machine guns.

### (iii) Missiles

Tactical missiles for use by the ground forces include those with ranges from 10 to about 300 miles, some of which are carried on modified tank chassis. The smaller missiles are all on amphibious tracked chassis.

## Sea Power

The Soviet Navy, including the naval air force, is manned by about 500,000 officers and men. It is the second largest navy in

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the world with a total fleet of about 1,600,000 tons.

### (i) Submarines

The main strength of the Soviet Navy continues to lie in the submarine fleet, which comprises some 420 units. Over 300 of these are ocean-going. It is estimated that there are now 20 nuclear-powered submarines (this figure has doubled in a year). There are four fleets: 70 conventional submarines are based in the Baltic, at least 150 in the Arctic, 50 in the Black Sea, and 120 or more in the Far East. There are estimated to be at least 30 missile-carrying submarines with a strategic role with the Arctic and Far East fleets. It is not known what proportion of these 30 can launch missiles when submerged.

The following are details of the conventionally-powered submarine fleet:

*   **F class:** about 300 feet long, has a displacement of 2,000 tons, and a large radius of action. At least 10 of these are in service. This is basically a submarine-hunter.

*   **G class:** 310 feet long and has a submerged displacement of 3,000 tons. It has a very large conning tower for the vertical launching of missiles which are fired when on the surface.

The W class makes up the bulk of the Soviet submarine fleet. It is 245 feet long, with a displacement of 1,050 tons. It has a speed of 16 knots on the surface, and 13 knots submerged, and a radius of action of 10,000 miles.

The R class is a modernized form of the W. Together, these comprise some 200 submarines.

*   **Z class:** 290 feet long with a submerged displacement of 2,600 tons. It is capable of 20 knots on the surface and 13 knots submerged, with a radius in excess of 20,000 miles. There are at least 20 of these in service. A small number have been converted to fire missiles, probably in a manner similar to the G class. They are stationed principally in the Arctic and the Far East.

There are two other classes of submarines, both of small displacement and designed for operations in the Baltic and Black Sea; the K and Q types. The K is now becoming obsolete. The Q is still serviceable, and has a radius of action of 3,500 miles.

### (ii) Surface Ships

The surface ships of the Soviet Navy consist of:

<table><tr><td>Cruisers</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>Destroyers</td><td>100</td></tr><tr><td>Missile Firing Destroyers</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>Fast Patrol Boats, many with surface-to-surface missiles</td><td>400</td></tr><tr><td>Other vessels</td><td>2,000</td></tr></table>

(There are a number of disguised trawlers used for radar and reconnaissance purposes).

These are distributed more or less equally among the four fleets. The cruisers are of three different types:

*   **Sverdlov:** launched between 1951 and 1957, displacement 20,000 tons, speed 34 knots, armament 12 152 mm. guns and 32 anti-aircraft guns. One or two have recently been re-equipped with medium-range surface-to-air missile launchers, probably as an experiment.

*   **Chapayev:** completed between 1948 and 1951, of 11,500 tons displacement, with the same speed and armament as the Sverdlov.

*   **Kirov:** launched between 1936 and 1945, displacement 8,500 tons, speed 30 knots, armament 9 180 mm. guns and 20 anti-aircraft guns.

New destroyers include:

*   **Kynda** class: displacement 6,500 tons; speed 35 knots; Armament: 16 surface-to-surface missiles; 30 surface-to-air missiles; 4 anti-aircraft guns; 6 torpedo-tubes; 2 anti-submarine missile launchers.

*   **Krupny** class: displacement 4,500 tons; speed 35 knots; Armament: 12 surface-to-surface missile launchers; 16 anti-aircraft missiles; 6 torpedo tubes; 2 anti-submarine missile launchers.

*   **Kildin** class: displacement 3,800 tons; speed 35 knots; Armament: 6 surface-to-surface missile launchers; 16 anti-aircraft guns; 2 anti-submarine missile launchers.

*   **Ketlin** class: displacement 3,800 tons; speed 35 knots; Armament: 20 anti-aircraft guns; 10 torpedo tubes; other anti-submarine weapons.

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**Air Force**
- Total strength: 20,000
- 3 fighter regiments, each possessing 2 wings of 3 squadrons
- It is believed that MiG 21s are beginning to replace the MiG 17s
- 1 light bomber regiment with IL 28s
- Para-military forces: 60,000

HUNGARY

**General**
- Population: 10 million
- Length of military service: 2½ years
- Total Regular Forces: 99,000
- Defence budget: $277,000,000

**Army**
- Total strength: 90,000
- 5 divisions
- 1 armoured
- 4 motorized
- There are about 1,000 tanks, for the most part T-34s, with some T-54s

**Air Force**
- Total strength: 9,000
- 3 fighter regiments, each of 2 groups of 3 squadrons
- Re-equipment with MiG 21s began in 1962, but the bulk of the interceptor force is still MiG 17s
- 1 bomber regiment with IL 28s
- Surface-to-air missile batteries equipped with Soviet missiles

Para-military forces

ALBANIA

**General**
- Population: 1,800,000
- Total Regular forces: 35,000
- Albania is still nominally a member of the Warsaw Pact, though there is now minimal co-operation with her other allies, and she is the principal European champion of Chinese views

**Army**
- Total strength: 25,000
- 5 brigades

**Navy**
- Total strength: 2,800
- 4 submarines
- 350 other ships

**Air Force**
- Total strength: 7,200
- 2 squadrons MiG 17s

**Para-military forces**
- 10,000

CHINA

Population: 726 million
Total armed forces: 2,476,000

The armed forces are organized by the Ministry of Defence, advised by a National Defence Council which is presided over by the Chairman of the Central People's Government. Control is exercised through 13 military regions.

There were about 130,000,000 men of military age in 1963. Only about 700,000 men, a small proportion of potential conscripts, are called up each year. They serve 3 years in the Army.

In addition the declared intention of the Chinese government is to embody every third person in the population in the Militia, but this is still scantily armed and sketchily organized. It is as much a labour as a defence force. There are about 300,000 men in the Public Security Force, including the armed police.

There has been a gradual debilitation of Chinese military power over the last five years. The size of the armed forces is growing, and may be further increased, but their effectiveness is not increasing.

There has been some movement of troop concentrations away from the Fukien area over the past year, which suggests that the main pre-occupations of the Chinese government now lie in the Indian border region, and possibly to the north.

Some equipment is beginning to become obsolete. The last deliveries of Soviet military material were in 1960. Apart from a few Chinese prototypes, the only tanks possessed by the Army are some T-34/85s and T-54s. The latest combat aircraft are MiG 19s.

Army

Total strength: 2,250,000

120 divisions. There are 2 or 3 armoured divisions and one is an airborne division, supporting troops and cavalry for desert areas.

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There appears to be a barely adequate supply of small arms up to light anti-tank weapons, but artillery and ammunition are scarce. The Army is not a highly mobile organization. It is tied to a rudimentary railway network, and faces heavy transport and logistic problems.

## Navy

Total strength: 136,000, including marines

There are 31 submarines, of which about half are Soviet W Class. 4 escort ships.

## Air Force

Total strength: 90,000

There are perhaps 2,000 first line aircraft, of which some 25 per cent are light bombers, mainly IL 28s. The bulk of the remainder are MiG 15s and 17s, and a small number of MiG 19s. The most modern transport available to the Chinese air force is a small number of British *Viscounts*. There are perhaps 10,000 pilots, but shortage of fuel prevents adequate training.

## NORTH VIETNAM

Population: 17,000,000

Both the Soviet Union and China still appear to be giving active assistance to support a conscript army of about 250,000 in 15 divisions, but the arms supplied appear, apart from some mortars in the hands of the Viet-Cong guerrillas, to be less modern than those used by the Vietminh in the final stages of the Indo-China war. Para-military formations total about 100,000 men. The Viet-Cong guerrillas operating from North Vietnam are estimated to total between 25,000 and 30,000 men.

## NORTH KOREA

Population: 10,000,000

It is not known how far the Soviet-North Korean mutual defence treaty, concluded in 1961, remains in force in the circumstances of the Sino-Soviet rift. The North Korean Army is estimated at 280,000 men, organized in 16 divisions. The Air Force has about 30,000 men, and some 500 aircraft, mainly MiG 15s.

## CUBA

Population: 7,200,000

The Soviet forces in Cuba totalled some 17,000 men in March 1963, according to American official statements. There is reason to suppose that this number had diminished by about 9,000 by October. They are equipped with modern armaments which include a surface-to-surface missile (with a nuclear capability and a range of 25 miles), and modern anti-tank missiles. There are 24 anti-aircraft missile sites. There are also T-54 tanks, SU-100 assault guns, and wheeled APCs. The Soviet air units on the island are estimated to have some 42 MiG 21s, equipped with air-to-air missiles.

The Cuban army totals about 90,000, and there is a strong militia of 200,000 men and women. It is organized only at battalion level, and equipped with light and heavy mortars, some light tanks, self-propelled artillery and light anti-aircraft guns suitable for low-flying aircraft. The Cuban air force appears to have MiG 17s and 19s, and a small number of IL 28s.

The Navy has 4 old cruisers and perhaps 25 modern Soviet torpedo boats.

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