BRAZILIAN EMBASSY

WASHINGTON, D. C.

March 13, 1981

Dear Miss Linda:

As I understand, Mrs. Fridell, the Brazilian Ambassador's Social Secretary, spoke to you just now concerning my desire to have a certain photograph autographed by Dr. Kissinger.

This certain photograph is attached herewith. It was taken at the Embassy as Dr. Kissinger was being greeted by the then Foreign Minister Azeredo da Silveira and by the then Ambassador Baptista Pinheiro, back in September 1976. I was present on that occasion.

My connections with the U. S. Government dates since 1918 when I joined the Brazilian Government Foreign Service, that is, for the last 62 years. You can imagine how I am involved with this beautiful country!

I would be very grateful if you could obtain Dr. Kissinger's autograph, and more grateful yet if Dr. Kissinger could add a few words...

Please remember that I am one of his millions of admirers!

Enclosure: One photograph

New England
School of Law

154 Stuart Street
Boston, Massachusetts 02116
(617) 451-0010

Student Bar Association
International Law Society

March 30, 1981

Hon. Henry A. Kissinger
Suite 520
1800 K Street NW
Washington, D.C. 20006

Dear Mr. Kissinger

Thank you very much for your immediate response to our request for a speaker. From the affirmative responses which the Society received, the membership chose United States Ambassador Robert White, former Ambassador to El Salvador. Mr. White will speak on the situation in El Salvador and the United States intervention there.

Ambassador White will be speaking at New England School of Law on Tuesday, April 7, 1981, from 4-6 PM in Room 305. We cordially invite you to attend. If you wish to attend, we request that you contact either of us at extension 288 so that we may reserve seating.

We trust that we may contact you for future speaking engagements. Thank you again for your timely response. We hope that you will be able to attend on April 7 and we hope to hear from you soon.

APR 1 1981

We will ____ will not ____ attend the
meeting of the Danny Kaye Pension Fund
Benefit Committee on April 29th at 4:30 PM
in the Board Room of Avery Fisher Hall.

Signed
Dr. and Mrs. Kissinger

The New York Review of Books

250 West Fifty-Seventh Street
New York City, New York 10019
(212) 757-8070

We think you will be interested
in the testimony by Felix Rohatyn in
the enclosed advanced copy of the _New
York Review_. We would appreciate
seeing any comment on it you may have.

The Editors

MAR 20 1981

Telex: 237-344; Cable Address: NYREVBOOK

WOMEN'S COMMITTEE
OFFICERS
and
BOARD OF DIRECTORS

Mrs. Driggs Hultkrans
*President*

Miss Lynn Chase
*Vice President*

Mrs. Chalmers Dale
*Vice President*

Mrs. Sheila Pulling
*Vice President-Secretary*

Mrs. Alexander B. Slater
*Treasurer*

Mrs. George Moss
*Asst. Treasurer*

Mrs. John R. Preston
*Asst. Secretary*

Mrs. George F. Baker, III
Mrs. Charles A. Dana, Jr.
Mrs. R. Leigh Duemler
Mrs. Benjamin A. Groves
Mrs. Ridgely W. Harrison
Mrs. Amory Houghton, Jr.
Mrs. Jack R. Howard
Miss Julie Kammerer
Mrs. Alfred L. Loomis, III
Mrs. Sealy Newell
Mrs. Gordon B. Pattee
Mrs. Richard T. Perkin
Mrs. Tucker Ridder
Mrs. Joseph R. Siphron
Mrs. James F. Stebbins
Mrs. Joseph A. Thomas

ADVISORY BOARD

Mrs. Vincent Astor
Mrs. Charles W. Nichols, Jr.
Mrs. Harmon L. Remmel
Mrs. Anne H. Stevenson
Mrs. Landon K. Thorne, Jr.

February 16, 1981

On Wednesday, June 10, 1981 The Women's Committee of The New York Zoological Society will hold it's bi-annual party at the Bronx Zoo. This year our theme is "Salute to Noah" and the proceeds will be donated to the completion of The Children's Zoo.

This party is a wonderful experience for all who attend. You will have direct contact with the animals, a mini tour of the Park including The Children's Zoo, play games, dance and dine under a tent - all right at the Bronx Zoo.

This year Mrs. Vincent Astor has agreed to serve as Honorary Chairman, Mrs. Driggs Hultkrans and Mrs. Joseph A. Thomas are Co-Chairmen.

Won't you join a distinguished group of sponsors and patrons? We ask you to help us realize our ultimate goal of $300,000 by contributing $1,000 as sponsors (for four tickets), or $500 as patrons (for two tickets).

Please return the enclosed card at your earliest convenience so we may include your name on our invitation.

Do help us out by joining our "Salute to Noah".

Mrs. Harmon L. Remmel
Co-Chairmen
Sponsors and Patrons Committee

Women's Committee

New York Zoological Society

16 East 64th Street

New York, N.Y. 10021

Telephone: 212/888-0908

SALUTE TO NOAH

at the

Bronx Zoo

Wednesday, June 10, 1981

☐ We (I) will be delighted to be a Sponsor for the New York Zoological Society benefit and subscribe $1,000 for four (4) tickets.

☐ We (I) will be delighted to be a Patron for the Society benefit and subscribe $500 for two (2) tickets.

☐ We (I) are unable to be a Sponsor or Patron but are happy to enclose a contribution of $__________.

☐ Enclosed is my check for $__________.

Name__________

(please print as you wish it to appear on the invitation).

Address__________

Phone__________

Please make checks payable to:

Women's Committee N.Y.Z.S.
16 East 64th Street
New York, New York 10021

All donations are deductible to the extent authorized by law.

THE NEWCOMEN SOCIETY
IN NORTH AMERICA

A Non-Profit Membership Corporation
Chartered under the Charitable Law of the State of Maine
For the Study of Business, Industrial and Institutional History

POST OFFICE BOX 113, DOWNINGTOWN, PENNSYLVANIA 19335

AREA CODE: 215 - 363 - 6600

CHARLES PENROSE, JR.
President

C. DANIEL HAYES, JR.
Vice-President

IRIS R. MALONBY
Vice-President

JOHN QUINN
Vice-President

JOHN F. HOFF, III
Treasurer

DOUGLAS BROWN, JR.
Associate Treasurer

STANLEY VAN DEN HEUVEL
Hon. Corresponding Secretary

HON. FRED C. SCRIBNER, JR.
Clerk and Counsel

Trustees

CARLYLE F. BARNES
Bristol, Connecticut

RUSSELL W. BRACE
Camden, Maine

DOUGLAS BROWN, JR.
New York, New York

EDWIN J. FAULKNER
Lincoln, Nebraska

W. M. HALL
Boston, Massachusetts

C. DANIEL HAYES, JR.
Downingtown, Pennsylvania

JOHN F. HOFF, III
Princeton, New Jersey

N. LEONARD JARVIS
New York, New York

RICHARD G. LANDIS
San Francisco, California

LAWRENCE B. MORRIS, JR.
New York, New York

CHARLES PENROSE, JR.
Downingtown, Pennsylvania

WILLIAM J. RUSHTON, III
Birmingham, Alabama

HON. FRED C. SCRIBNER, JR.
Portland, Maine

WILLIAM S. STOKES, JR.
Bala-Cynwyd, Pennsylvania

ROBERT STUART
Chicago, Illinois

STANLEY VAN DEN HEUVEL
New York, New York

LOUIS WOZAR
Dayton, Ohio

January 12, 1981

Dr Henry A Kissinger
k800 K Street, NW Suite 520
Washington DC 20006

Dear Dr Kissinger

The Newcomen Society will meet for Cocktails and Dinner at The Pierre in New York City on Thursday evening, February 12, 1981 to honor Weyerhaeuser Company with George H Weyerhaeuser, President and Chief Executive Officer, as our Guest of Honor and Speaker. Mr Weyerhaeuser will be introduced by The Honorable William H Donaldson, Dean Emeritus, Yale University Graduate School of Organization and Management. The Host for Cocktails will be Robert H B Baldwin, President and Managing Director, Morgan Stanley & Co Incorporated. I will have the pleasure of chairing the Meeting and The Reverend Dr David H C Read, Minister, The Madison Avenue Presbyterian Church will give the Grace and Benediction.

Newcomen Trustees, Messrs Douglas Brown, Jr, N Leonard Jarvis, Lawrence B Morris, Jr and Stanley van den Heuvel join in this invitation to you.

You and your Lady are cordially invited to be with us on this occasion. Please feel free to bring guests. An Announcement and its Return Reservation Coupon giving full details is enclosed.

We would be delighted to have you present!

Sincerely,

Charles Penrose, Jr
President, Board of Trustees
The Newcomen Society in North America

JAN 19 1981

Douglas Brown, Jr
Vice President
The Bank of New York

N Leonard Jarvis, Investments
Senior Vice President
Shearson Loeb Rhoades, Inc

Lawrence Morris, Jr
Partner
Patterson, Belknap, Webb & Tyler

Stanley van den Heuvel
Senior Vice President & Secretary
Manufacturers Hanover Trust Company

/jd
Enclosure

Vol. 59 - No. 1 - Pages 7 - 8

NO TICKETS

Newcomen
"Reservation Coupon"

DOUGLAS BROWN, JR.

Associate American Treasurer

The Newcomen Society in North America
Vice-President, The Bank of New York
706 Madison Avenue
New York, N.Y. 10021

DEAR MR. BROWN:

My check in amount $36.00 each is attached for.... reservations, at the NATIONAL NEWCOMEN DINNER on Thursday, February 12th, 1981.

TELEPHONE Reservations: 1-212-530-2105

TELEPHONE Late Reservations: February 10, 11 and 12
215.363-6600

NO TICKETS - Seating by attendance roster

HOST

☐ MEMBER

☐ NON-MEMBER

DATE

NAME

TITLE

COMPANY

STREET

CITY STATE ZIP

PLEASE LIST GUESTS ON REVERSE SIDE OF COUPON

Vol. 59 - No. 1 - Pages 5 - 6

THIS NATIONAL NEWCOMEN MEETING HONORS
WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY

Robert H. B. Baldwin, President and Managing Director, Morgan Stanley & Company, Incorporated, New York, cordially invites Newcomen Members, Ladies and guests to a Reception to meet our Guest of Honor and Speaker, Mr. George H. Weyerhaeuser.

The Date is: **THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 12th, 1981.** The Place is: **The PIERRE, Fifth Avenue at 61st, New York, N.Y.** Reception: **6:30 o'clock in the Regency Room. Dinner: 7:15 o'clock in the Cotillion Room. Guests may be brought. Dinner Jackets worn.** Presiding: **CHARLES PENROSE, JR., F.R.S.A., President, Board of Trustees of The Newcomen Society in North America.** In accordance with custom, **GRACE** will be said by **THE REVEREND DOCTOR DAVID H. C. READ, Minister**, The Madison Avenue Presbyterian Church.

Our Guest of Honor and Speaker, Mr. Weyerhaeuser, will be introduced by The Honorable William H. Donaldson, Dean Emeritus, Yale University Graduate School of Organization and Manament, former U.S. Undersecretary of State, Founder and former Chief Executive Officer, Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, Inc., New York, Member, New York Committee in The Society.

If ever American Newcomen should stand true to the best traditions of the Free Enterprise System-it is now.

THE NEWCOMEN BULLETIN
FOR NORTH AMERICA

... at NEW YORK
on February 12th
1981

"National Newcomen Dinner"

Honoring

WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY

Vol. 59 January - February No. 1

Vol. 59 - No. 1 - Pages 2 - 4

AMERICAN NEWCOMEN, at New York City, honors Weyerhaeuser Company. In January 1900, a group of Midwest lumbermen, led by Frederick Weyerhaeuser, met in Tacoma, Washington, to form a new corporation as a vehicle to purchase 900,000 acres of timberland from the Northern Pacific Railroad. Weyerhaeuser Company started modestly as a two-man office in Tacoma. It has grown to become the nation's premiere forest manager, growing trees on 6 million acres of owned land in the Pacific Northwest and the South, managing the world's largest private timber inventory, and producing a broad mix of building materials, papers, pulps and packaging materials. With one-third of its sales in international markets, the company is one of the United States' leading exporters and it has operations in Canada, Europe and the South Seas as well. Weyerhaeuser is one of the nation's largest home builders and mortgage bankers, and it has diversified into other fields. From its inception, the Company has been concerned with long-term investment horizons, and it is today investing heavily in the planting of forests which will not be harvested until well into the 21st century. Our Guest of Honor and Speaker will be George H. Weyerhaeuser, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Corporation, a great-grandson of Frederick Weyerhaeuser, and the sixth member of his family to lead the firm. Mr. Weyerhaeuser is a Member of the Pacific Northwest Committee in The Newcomen Society in North America.

"THE NEWCOMEN BULLETIN FOR NORTH AMERICA" (USPS 384-080) is normally issued bi-monthly during January-February, March-April, May-June, July-August, September-October and November-December. The Office of Publication: 412 Newcomen Road, Exton, Chester County, Pennsylvania 19341, U.S.A. Office of Honorary Corresponding Secretary for the United States of America: 350 Park Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10022, U.S.A. Entered as second-class matter at United States Post Office at Exton, Pennsylvania 19341, in accordance with the Act of March 3, 1879.

Printed in U.S.A

GUEST

NAME
TITLE
COMPANY
STREET

CITY

STATE

ZIP

GUEST

NAME

TITLE

COMPANY

STREET

CITY

STATE

ZIP

Please List Additional Guests on a Separate Sheet of Paper

A LOOK
INTO THE
FUTURE

NEXT

June 5, 1981

Henry Kissinger
Suite 520
1800 K Street, NW
Washington, DC 20006

Dear Mr. Kissinger:

Next Publishing Company

708 Third Avenue
New York, NY 10017

Telephone 212 599-1840

You and roughly 300 other authorities on the Soviet Union are being invited to participate in a two-round Delphi survey on the future of the Soviet Union. The questionnaire was devised with the help of Harrison Salisbury [inserted image of questionnaire]. We expect that the findings of our poll will command unusual attention in the media and among policy makers.

NEXT Magazine is a one-year-old monthly magazine that concentrates on the near-term future. Its circulation is 300,000.

As you may know, a Delphi survey is a poll of expert opinions involving at least two rounds of questionnaires. After you complete and return the first questionnaire, we will send you: (1) a list of the names of other experts who are participating in the poll, and (2) a summary of all the responses to the first round. You will then have a chance to re-think your initial answers in the light of the other experts' collective views, and respond to the questionnaire a second time.

At no time will any individual panelist's views be directly attributed to that panelist without permission. All individual responses will be kept confidential. NEXT will publish a major article based mainly on the responses to the second-round questionnaire. In conjunction with that article, we will publish a list of all the Delphi panelists, except for those who wish to remain anonymous.

Enclosed are: a respondent data sheet, a return envelope, and two copies of the first round questionnaire. Please mail one copy of the completed survey form to us, and keep one copy with your answers so that you can compare them with the collective judgments of the other panelists before you complete the second-round questionnaire. Because of the time required to tabulate and analyze the first-round responses, we would appreciate it if you could complete and return the enclosed survey form within two weeks.

If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to call me collect at (212) 599-1840.

Thank you for your assistance.

With kind regards,

Richard Conniff
Senior Writer

P.S. The numbers on the back of the answer sheets are to identify panelists so that we know to whom to send the second round of the poll, in case any panelist does not return his or her respondent data sheet.

JUN 5 1981

RESPONDENT DATA SHEET:

The Soviet Union

NAME: ____________________________________________________

ADDRESS: _________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________

(This is the address where your Second Round polling form should be sent.)
What is your field of expertise or professional training?

How long have you been in this field? ____ years

What is your current position or title? _________________________________________

What is the name of your current company or organization? _________________________________________

May we telephone you after the poll is completed to obtain your comments
on the findings, for possible publication? Yes ____ No ____

If you answered Yes, please furnish us with your phone number: ____________________

9. Do you agree or disagree that disillusionment among Soviet citizens is worse than it was 10 years ago?
(Please check one.)

Agree ______ Disagree ______ Uncertain ______

10. What will be the major sources of domestic stability or strength for the Soviet Union over the next five years? (Please write in your answer, briefly.)

11. Will feminism gain a foothold in the Soviet Union over the next few years? (Please check one.)

Yes ______ No ______ Uncertain ______

12. Who will succeed Brezhnev? __________________________________________________

And will Soviet internal policies (please circle one)

become far
more repressive?

become more
repressive?

stay the
same?

become more
liberal?

become far
more liberal?

13. Do you expect that domestic troubles will make the Soviet leaders more or less aggressive internationally? (Please check one.)

More aggressive ______ Less aggressive ______ Uncertain ______

14. Over the next five years, will Soviet relations improve or deteriorate with these nations? (Please circle one number for each country.)

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th colspan="3">Deteriorate greatly</th><th colspan="3">Stay the same</th><th colspan="3">Improve greatly</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Britain</td><td>-10</td><td>-8</td><td>-6</td><td>-4</td><td>-2</td><td>0</td><td>+2</td><td>+4</td><td>+6</td><td>+8</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr><td>Cambodia</td><td>-10</td><td>-8</td><td>-6</td><td>-4</td><td>-2</td><td>0</td><td>+2</td><td>+4</td><td>+6</td><td>+8</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr><td>China</td><td>-10</td><td>-8</td><td>-6</td><td>-4</td><td>-2</td><td>0</td><td>+2</td><td>+4</td><td>+6</td><td>+8</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr><td>Cuba</td><td>-10</td><td>-8</td><td>-6</td><td>-4</td><td>-2</td><td>0</td><td>+2</td><td>+4</td><td>+6</td><td>+8</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr><td>France</td><td>-10</td><td>-8</td><td>-6</td><td>-4</td><td>-2</td><td>0</td><td>+2</td><td>+4</td><td>+6</td><td>+8</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr><td>India</td><td>-10</td><td>-8</td><td>-6</td><td>-4</td><td>-2</td><td>0</td><td>+2</td><td>+4</td><td>+6</td><td>+8</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr><td>Iran</td><td>-10</td><td>-8</td><td>-6</td><td>-4</td><td>-2</td><td>0</td><td>+2</td><td>+4</td><td>+6</td><td>+8</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr><td>Japan</td><td>-10</td><td>-8</td><td>-6</td><td>-4</td><td>-2</td><td>0</td><td>+2</td><td>+4</td><td>+6</td><td>+8</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr><td>North Korea</td><td>-10</td><td>-8</td><td>-6</td><td>-4</td><td>-2</td><td>0</td><td>+2</td><td>+4</td><td>+6</td><td>+8</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr><td>Pakistan</td><td>-10</td><td>-8</td><td>-6</td><td>-4</td><td>-2</td><td>0</td><td>+2</td><td>+4</td><td>+6</td><td>+8</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr><td>Poland</td><td>-10</td><td>-8</td><td>-6</td><td>-4</td><td>-2</td><td>0</td><td>+2</td><td>+4</td><td>+6</td><td>+8</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr><td>Saudi Arabia</td><td>-10</td><td>-8</td><td>-6</td><td>-4</td><td>-2</td><td>0</td><td>+2</td><td>+4</td><td>+6</td><td>+8</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr><td>Vietnam</td><td>-10</td><td>-8</td><td>-6</td><td>-4</td><td>-2</td><td>0</td><td>+2</td><td>+4</td><td>+6</td><td>+8</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr><td>West Germany</td><td>-10</td><td>-8</td><td>-6</td><td>-4</td><td>-2</td><td>0</td><td>+2</td><td>+4</td><td>+6</td><td>+8</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr><td>Yugoslavia</td><td>-10</td><td>-8</td><td>-6</td><td>-4</td><td>-2</td><td>0</td><td>+2</td><td>+4</td><td>+6</td><td>+8</td><td>+10</td></tr></tbody></table>

15. In which areas of the world will Soviet influence grow over the next five years? (Please write in your answer, briefly.)

16. In which areas will it decline? (Please write in your answer, briefly.)

17. According to the Soviet perception, is its military security (please circle one number)

getting weaker?
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10
remaining the same?
getting stronger?

18. The Soviet Union was recently accused of "conscious, determined expansionism." Do you (please check one)

agree? ________ disagree? ________

19. The Soviet Union has been accused of using terrorism to advance its interests. Do you (please check one)

agree? ________ disagree? ________ not know? ________

20. If you agree, do you think Soviet-sponsored terrorism will (please check one)

increase? ________ decrease? ________

21. Which will the Soviet Union rely on most to advance its interests in the next few years? (Please rank from 1 to 5, with 1 being the highest.)

______ Diplomacy

______ Strategic mineral-supply manipulation

______ Espionage

______ Military intimidation

______ Invasion/war

______ "Peace offensives"

______ Propaganda

______ Trade agreements

______ Terrorism

______ Economic pressure

______ Scientific exchange agreements

______ ____________________ (Please write in.)

______ Political subversion

22. Over the next few years, will Soviet relations with the United States deteriorate?
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10
remain the same?
improve?

23. What would be the most successful or productive United States policy toward the Soviet Union? (Please briefly write in your reply.)

24. If relations between the United States and the Soviet Union deteriorate, do you believe a military collaboration between the United States and China will result? (Please check one.)

Yes ________ No ________ Uncertain ________

25. Will the Soviet Union engage in another round of arms talks with the United States? (Please check one.)

26. Do you agree or disagree with the contention that the United States is falling behind the Soviet Union in defense capacity? (Please circle one.)

Agree strongly

Agree mildly

Uncertain

Disagree mildly

Strongly disagree

Stavros S. NIARCHOS

PARIS

SN Private Line (33.1) 705 43 15
Office " 705 04 28
Office Direct Line " 705 44 75

Address : Hotel de Chanaleilles
2 Rue de Chanaleilles
75007 Paris (France)

DOUVILLE

SN Private Line (33.31) 63 63 07
Manoir " 63 62 01

Address : Manoir de Douville
Route de Lisieux
14100 Firfol (France)

FRESNAY

Stud Farm (33.33) 35 92 04/94 08/93 08
Château " 35 94 69

Address : Haras de Fresnay le Buffard
Neuvy en Houlme
61210 Putanges Pont Ecrepin

MONTE-CARLO

SN Private Line (33.93) 30 15 40
Office " 50 67 21

Address : Venus Shipping Co.
Villa Auguste
Avenue de l'Hermitage
Monte-Carlo
Principality of Monaco

LONDON

SN Private Line (44.1) 629 17 21
Office " 629 84 00

Address : Niarchos (London) Limited
41/43 Park Street
London W 1 (G.B.)

SPETSPOULA

(Island of)
SN Private Line (30.1) 821 02 07/26 07
Spetsopoula " 822 99 01/02/03
Address : c/o Hellenic Shipyards " 557 26 11/34 71/33 50
P.O. Box 480
Athens 134 (Greece)

NEW YORK

Office (212) 486 74 74
SN Private Line " 758 78 97

Address : Transoceanic Marine, Inc.
39 East 51st Street
New York, N.Y. 10022 (USA)

ST. MORITZ

Switzerland
SN Private Line (41.82) 33 739/35 791
Villa Marguns " 33 745/6
Office " 34 222

Address : Villa Marguns
7500 St. Moritz
Switzerland

26.5.81

Tokyo, December 25, 1980

Dr. Henry A. Kissinger
1800 K Street, N.W., Suite 520
Washington D.C., 20006

Dear Dr. Kissinger,

It is always a delight for us to listen to your enlightening talks on international politics as well as on American political picture.

What you had told us about the prospect of American Presidential election proved so exact and correct. This time you touched upon the subject of the impending threat in Poland. In Asia, the situation in Afghanistan has not shown any sign of improvement. The world certainly needs the strong leadership and solidarity in the free world.

We are now in the middle of the difficult task of increasing tax and of suppressing increase in the expected government expenditure so that the unprecedented deficit in our government finance be curtailed as much as possible. Yet it is our fervent hope that a result of our budget making efforts will reflect our determination to shoulder an increased international responsibility on our part in the long run.

We would like to wish you a Happy New Year.

P.S. We made arrangement so that a book about our new Prime Minister, Zenko Suzuki, be sent to you. It will be, we hope, of some reference when he visits the United States next year.

JAN -2 1981

STATEMENT BY FORMER PRESIDENT RICHARD NIXON
(To The New York Times - for release Sunday 4 October 1981)

In the battle over AWACS, those who consider themselves Israel's best friends are in danger of becoming their own worst enemies. They may win in their effort to defeat the AWACS agreement. If so, they will find it a pyrrhic victory.

I know what being a friend of Israel means. I have been one for 35 years. In 1973 I ordered the biggest airlift in history, which saved Israel from threatened defeat at one of its darkest moments, and in that same crisis I ordered a worldwide alert of U.S. forces to keep the Soviets out of the Middle East.

Ronald Reagan is probably the strongest supporter of Israel to occupy the White House since Harry Truman. Yet politically, the AWACS opponents have fallen into the trap of forcing members of Congress to choose between Reagan and Begin. At their recent meeting, Reagan's genial manner may have led Begin to miss the iron fist inside the velvet glove, and to miscalculate Reagan's determination. Defeat on AWACS would be a serious embarrassment to Reagan, both at home and abroad. Israel's friends should not be under any illusion that they help Israel's cause by embarrassing and undermining the authority of their indispensable friend in the White House.

I understand the concern of those who have technical objections to this or that provision of the agreement, or who think we could have struck a better deal. But the point now is not whether a better agreement might have been reached.

more

OCT 13 1981

2

[a]

The point now is whether the agreement that was reached is going to be kept. This is a vital distinction, crucial to any assessment of where the national interest lies -- whether our national interest, or Israel's.

In the Saudis, we are dealing not with adversaries but with friends, and also with a government whose cooperation will be absolutely essential to any lasting peace in the Middle East. The Saudis did play a helpful role in Lebanon. In the future, they can play a helpful role with the Palestinians, and with others whom they subsidize. With their enormous wealth, they are playing a major role among third world countries, particularly in Africa. Just as it is not good politics for Begin to embarrass Reagan, it is not good politics for the United States to embarrass Saudi Arabia.

From Israel's own standpoint, the real bottom line is not the military value of the AWACS planes, but who will have influence, and how much, with Israel's Arab neighbors: the United States, or some other power which is not Israel's friend?

We know, the Saudis know, and everyone in the Middle East knows, that if it were not for the intense opposition by Begin and parts of the American Jewish community, the AWACS sale would go through. This is a cold fact that opponents of the sale, whatever their own particular reasons, must take into account. This fact will greatly affect the consequences if the sale fails to go through.

- more -

3

If the agreement is defeated, it will be seen as
a clear signal that America's commitment to Israel's security
is open-ended, but our commitment to the security of Israel's
neighbors is not.

At this stage, the arguments for the AWACS sale
are primarily political, and only secondarily strategic.
And the political arguments are compelling, in Israel's
interest as well as in that of the United States.

Because Reagan has laid his own prestige on
the line, and will have paid a high political price for
approval, if he wins the Saudis will owe him one. This is
good for the United States, and good for Israel. If he
loses, on the other hand, everyone loses: Reagan is embarrassed
and undermined, the Saudis are humiliated, and Begin will
be in the inevitable position of having offended simultaneously
both his most important supporter and his richest neighbor.

As far as the use and security of the equipment
are concerned, those who worry about the deal ought to trust
the President, the Secretary of State and the Secretary of
Defense to ensure that these are being adequately safeguarded,
without insisting on humiliating the Saudis with a formal
declaration that would impinge on their sovereignty.

It has been widely assumed that those who support
AWACS care little about Israel, and those who oppose AWACS
are friends of Israel. I support AWACS as a friend of
Israel, because I believe strongly that at this point approval
is in the interest not only of the United States, but also

- more -

STATEMENT OF FORMER PRESIDENT RICHARD NIXON

AT FEZ, MOROCCO, OCTOBER 17, 1981

I have had the privilege in the past week to meet with
leaders of foreign nations who are personal friends and
friends of the United States.

They have high hopes and great confidence in the lead-
ership of President Reagan and Secretary Haig.

AWACS

All strongly support the sale of AWACS to Saudi Arabia
as did President Sadat. They understand why the United
States provides military aid to Israel for its defense
and the defense of the area against outside powers. They
believe the United States should also provide military
assistance to friendly Arab nations for their defense and
the defense of the area. They are dismayed by the opposi-
tion to the sale of AWACS to Saudi Arabia. If the sale is
disapproved, they believe it will indicate a double
standard as between them, all loyal friends of the United
States, and Israel. If this happens they will not cease
to be friends of the United States, but their friendship
could cool. There can be no settlement of the mideast
dispute without the enthusiastic support of those moderate
Arab countries.

MIDEAST SETTLEMENT

All the leaders expressed great respect for President
Mubarek. They have no confidence that the Camp David process

OCT 22 1981

-2-

will bring progress in the Palestinian issue. They all
believe the United States must at some point enter into
talks with the P.L.O.

In this respect I would point out President Mubarek
is in a difficult position. On one hand if he abandons
Camp David he betrays his country by not getting back the
Sinai. On the other hand if he goes forward on Camp David
he risks betraying his Arab brothers unless substantial
progress is made on the Palestinian issue.

The United States is committed to the Camp David pro-
cess, including progress on the Palestinian issue. If
progress is not made, direct talks with the P.L.O. will be
inevitable. This should be an incentive for Israel to
negotiate on Palestinian autonomy in the Camp David process.

My personal view is that an armed Palestinian state
would be a mortal danger to Israel and to Jordan as well.
Every avenue must be explored to find a solution which
will not jeopardize Israel's security and at the same time
recognize the right of self government for the Palestinians.

Until the Camp David process is completed, the United
States should not negotiate with the P.L.O. At the same
time, we should not object to our friends in the area and
in Europe doing so. We must not leave a vacuum if Camp
David fails to produce progress on Palestinian rights.

-3-

## QUARANTINE QUADAFI

Every leader I talked to expressed deep concern about
Libya's aggression. Quadafi is more than just a desert
rat. He is an international outlaw. Directly or in-
directly he threatens every friend of the United States
and the West.

An international threat requires an international
response. Our military options are limited. Another
course which might be considered is to impose an inter-
national economic quarantine in Libya. As one Mideast
leader put it to me bluntly: Why doesn't the West quit
buying oil from Quadafi?

The United States is moving in that direction. We
should urge our NATO allies and Japan to do so. The
economic cost will be high. But the cost of confronting
him militarily would be much higher. We must make every
effort to see that the funds that fuel his war machine are
cut off at the source.

## MORE AID FOR OUR FRIENDS

Many in this area believe that the fate of the Shah
and the assassination of Sadat indicates that it may be
dangerous to be a friend of the United States.

The answer to this is for the United States to make
it clear that it pays to be a friend and dangerous to be
an enemy of the United States.

-4-

This means that in the post Sadat era it is vitally
important for the United States to provide adequate
military assistance to our friends in the area for their
defense. Equally, and in some cases even more important
is the need to increase rather than decrease what I
recognize are the politically unpopular economic aid pro-
grams for target nations like the Sudan. The greater
danger in many cases is that of internal collapse because
of economic distress rather than external military aggres-
sion.

MOSHE DYAN

Moshe Dyan was a great military leader. He was also
in the forefront of those working for peace. He was a
living example of the precept that no one hates war more
than one who has seen a lot of it.