SEP-15-1993 13:02

FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

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759 0042 P.12

12
statements of too many leading Israelis ignore this reality
and thereby may be setting the stage for a monumental let-
down.

It will be painful for each side to accept the consequences
of its own decision. After the elections in the occupied
territories in nine months' time, the Israeli recognition of
the Palestinian entity (and soon-to-be state) will be
irrevocable, as will be the Israeli withdrawal. Israeli
politicians who speak blithely of abrogating the agreement or
of reoccupying vacated areas are deluding themselves. The
international isolation such acts would produce would prove
unsustainable. And even if Israel should withdraw its
recognition of a Palestinian entity, the rest of the world
would not follow.

At the same time, the Palestinians must not delude
themselves that they can build their traditional pressure

x

SEP-15-1993 13:02

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P.13

[Y]

13

tactics into the context of the PLO/Israeli agreement. The follow-on negotiations cannot succeed and coexistence in the occupied territories would be thwarted if the PLO returned to harassment, not to speak of terrorism. The road to progress lies in enhancing the sense of security of the Israeli people.

In the immediate future, Israel will gain considerable benefits. It will be rid of the nearly half of the total Arab population of the occupied territories living in Gaza. It will be able to withdraw its forces from the population centers in the rest of the occupied territories and thus reduce, perhaps even eliminate, the impact of the intifada. Cooperative patterns between Israeli and Arab authorities on the West Bank are sure to develop. Relations with other Arab countries will improve, though I would expect full recognition to be withheld pending agreement on an overall settlement.

X

SEP-15-1993 13:03 FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

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759 0042 P.14

[X]

14

The Palestinians' major achievement in the initial period resides in the de facto recognition of a Palestinian entity and in the establishment of the PLO as the governing authority in the occupied territories. After a while, this fact is bound to alter the negotiating pattern fundamentally. Once follow-on negotiations begin, the continuing presence of Israeli settlements, military bases, and unrestricted use of roads is likely to be challenged even in the interim period by dissident elements and, in time, by the established leaders if they want to retain public support.

A perhaps more serious challenge will come from within the Muslim world. Since 1948, every progress toward peace in the Middle East has been followed by an increase in terrorism as dissident groups try to interrupt the process, either by assassinating those who carry it forward, as happened to Sadat, or by triggering Israeli retaliation. Some leading

X

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15

Israelis seem to believe that Arafat and the police force which the PLO will be permitted to organize will help keep the West Bank quiet. Arafat certainly has an incentive to establish himself as a responsible leader. But it is difficult to believe that he is able to move from his previous tacit encouragement of terrorism to all-out cooperation with Israel against his own constituencies. Indeed, the "strong"

Palestinian police force envisioned in the agreement could become a study in ambivalence. With what energy will they resist acts to complicate the Israeli presence? With what conviction will they pursue terrorists returning from Israel? At what point do they become the problem rather than the solution?

The most serious danger is that the dissident groups will try to create Lebanese-style conditions in the occupied territories. The central authorities may not be able to

X

SEP-15-1993 13:04

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[Y]

16

prevent terrorism, either against moderate Arabs or against
Israelis on the West Bank, or even inside Israel. If
conditions become too chaotic, Israel may intervene or outside
Arab forces may try to infiltrate the West bank, or both. The
same result could occur if the PLO entity seeks to intervene
in Jordan. All these developments could usher in another
Middle East war.

The key to a permanent peace rests on how well the interim
arrangements can be made to work. Israel will have to abandon
the occupation mentality; the PLO will have to give up the
intifada mentality and demonstrate it by reacting sharply to
terrorism. It must understand that if the Israeli people do
not benefit in the serenity of their daily life, they will
come to consider the major Israeli concessions that have been
in vain and turn from the peace process. The two societies

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759 0042 P.17

17

must learn the realities of coexistence which are far more complex than a moment of exaltation on the White House lawn.

In this respect, the outside world has a major responsibility. While the role of economic development is often exaggerated, in this case rapid progress in that field is one of the few tools available to give the parties - and especially the Palestinians - a stake in an evolutionary approach. A substantial assistance program is necessary. America has quite properly taken the lead, but major resources must come from the Arab world.

The world community has the additional obligation to come down hard on terrorism. Heretofore, the pattern has been token opposition to terrorism and passionate condemnation of Israeli retaliations. That pattern must be ended.

A sense of security for the Israeli population is essential to sustaining the follow-on negotiations. With the best will

X

SEP-15-1993 13:04

FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

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759 0042

18

in the world, the final peace requires a reconciliation between Palestinians and Israelis that cannot take place until the permanent settlement is concluded. Yet none of the key issues has been dealt with in the present agreement - not borders, not settlements, not Jerusalem. In the short term, that is the strength of the agreement; in the long term, a peril.

Fitting two states into a territory fifty miles wide - the distance from the Mediterranean to the Jordan - would be difficult even if irredentism were not built into the situation. When I was involved in Middle East diplomacy, I favored the Jericho-Gaza portion of the present arrangement, though in favor of Jordan rather than of the PLO. And I was quite unhappy when Israel refused to consider it. Some years later, I had an occasion to drive from Jerusalem to Jericho. We reached our destination in less than thirty minutes. This

SEP-15-1993 13:05 FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

TO

759 0042 P.19

CJ

19

did not alter my view that a mistake had been made by Israel
but it did bring home to me how little land there is to work
with and how precarious the situation is for all parties.
Jerusalem carries even greater emotional freight. And the
settlements will be an even more complex issue. A final
settlement will require a change of established attitudes as
profound as what brought the peace process this far.

A series of negotiating deadlocks is inevitable. It will
become apparent that Israel's security does not permit it to
return to the '67 borders while Arab dignity will prove
incompatible with the maintenance of all Israeli settlements.
And Jerusalem continues to be a holy city for both parties, as
the statements of both Rabin and Arafat in Washington have
made clear.

Both Israelis and Palestinians are now facing a new reality.
Israel will no longer confront Arab nations negotiating on

X

SEP-15-1993 13:05

FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

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759 0042 P.20

20
behalf of a sometimes obstreperous ally and occasionally just
going through the motions of doing so with a leader whom they
could treat as a terrorist. Arafat now represents a
Palestinian entity whose claims will carry more international
weight.

The Palestinians, having negotiated the present framework
without informing most of their Arab partners, are therefore
more on their own. And they should know that the present
process is their last chance.

Whether all this leads to greater flexibility or greater
tension depends in part on the United States. Until now, every
Arab-Israeli agreement has been brokered by the United States
and many of the formulae leading to solutions were designed in
Washington. Arab negotiators were counting on America to
induce Israel to make concessions they did not have the means
to evoke. Israel went along (and sometimes encouraged) such an

SEP-15-1993 13:06

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759 0042

P.21

CYJ

21

American role to maintain the support of its principal friend
and to bring nearer its cherished hope for peace.

On this occasion, the United States was on the sidelines, apparently uninformed and not emerging until the final signing ceremony. But this American restraint reflects as well a new sense of responsibility by the parties. After the signing ceremony, one of the PLO negotiators said to me that the PLO had learned that American pressure on Israel usually backfired and that a settlement could be sold best to the Palestinians if it was freely negotiated.

America is not needed on a daily basis - hard as this may be for some our more missionary experts to accept. When America assumes responsibility for breaking all deadlocks, it perversely encourages them. The parties strike intransigent poses for their domestic constituencies and maneuver America into forcing them into doing what they deep down know to be

X

TO

759 0042 P.22

22
necessary, and would eventually do on their own - as they have
this time. America can be proud of a consistent policy carried
through six administrations of both parties that has brought
the two parties to work together directly.

What America should do - and is the only country in a
position to accomplish - is to gain the confidence of both
sides to enable them to move toward a more secure future.
America alone has the ability to come up with concepts for
reconciling the clashing notions of sovereignty and perhaps
even to create areas of mixed sovereignty. It should hold the
ring against outside intervention, and must make clear to
traditional friends - especially to Israel - that the peace
process strengthens, not weakens, the American commitment.

What America must _not_ do is to offer its military forces as
the _deus ex machina_ for solving every security issue. Nothing
would more undermine the willingness of the American people to

X

SEP-15-1993 13:07 FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

TO

759 0042 P.23

23

support the peace process than a permanent stationing of American combat troops, especially in the heavily populated territories on the West Bank where they could easily repeat the experiences of Beirut.

America should focus on these principal tasks:

1) It must rally support for the economic development of the autonomous area. Most of these funds should come from the Arab world.

2) It should use its influence with other Arab countries to move rapidly to deal with Israel and to play a moderating role with the Palestinians. At a minimum, the Arab boycott of Israel should be lifted.

3) It should be available at times of deadlock without returning to its previous dominating role.

SEP-15-1993 13:07

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24

4) It should organize plausible international sanctions against terrorism and make clear to the PLO that, to America, this is a key test of its seriousness.

5) It should avoid permanent peacekeeping functions, especially in the West Bank.

A formidable agenda thus lies ahead. But it reflects how far we have come. And the spirit shown at the signing of the first step should be a big help in getting the parties to their destination.

TOTAL P.24

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1

3478 Words

Dr. Kissinger Newsweek Article 9/15/93

The signing ceremony of the PLO/Israeli agreement on the White House lawn was one of the rare occasions on which hope suspends all doubt. No one present can forget the compound of anguish and hope in the nearly Biblical remarks of my trusted friend, Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, or fail to be affected by Yasir Arafat's having achieved after a tortuous journey acceptance as a world leader on a level with that of the other protagonists. At an event televised around the world, Arafat made his entry onto that stage with words of peace, albeit with the ambiguous UN formulae which have for decades meant all things to all parties.

The presence of two former American Presidents and of eight former Secretaries of State symbolized the continuity of America's pursuit of Middle East peace. While the role of the accorder is not yet clear, it is the role of the

P02

15-09-93 18:12 DE RIO TINTO MINERA, SA

["American Bankers Association, and other signatory, and with the title of \"President\" and \"Chairman\" of the American Bankers Association, and with the title of \"President\" and \"

SEP-15-1993 09:41

FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

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Russian Foreign Minister captured the extent to which America has prevailed in the Cold War struggle for preeminence in the Middle East. President Clinton's dignified chairmanship of the signing ceremony testified to the unchallenged global leadership role that is now America's.

Only the most churlish or fanatical would refuse to join the almost palpable hope expressed at the White House ceremony that Palestinians and Israelis sharing a territory only fifty miles wide from the Mediterranean to the Jordan River have learned that, in conflict, both are condemned to permanent suffering, and that they will settle the remaining issues, which happen to be all the major ones, in the same spirit of goodwill that characterized the ceremony; that Israel and the now inevitable Palestinian state will live side by side much as Holland and Belgium do; and that the other

[Y]

P03

DE RIO TINTO MINERA, SA

15-09-93 18:12

The new constitution was approved by the Congress and the new government took office. The new government was characterized by a spirit of co-operation and collaboration with the other parties. The new constitution was approved by the Congress, which, when so being, was all the major ones, in the same manner as the other ones, and thus will settle the remaining issues. In conflict, both are condemned to be dissolved there. In conflict, both are condemned to be dissolved there. In conflict, both are condemned to be dissolved there.

CAB-14-1983 8:41 AM
FROM: KILKEN CONFERENCES
TO:

SEP-15-1993 09:41

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states in the area will make a peace of reconciliation with
Israel.

One of the functions of fairy tales is to lift sights to the
possibility of miraculous events. But statesmen who base their
policy on the expectation of miracles usually suffer

shipwreck. In the years ahead, the idyll on the White House
lawn can only be fulfilled if all the parties concerned apply
its spirit to resolving the nagging questions which remain.

These include, for example, what exactly was being recognized
by each party and what is its long term significance? However
unavoidable, was it premature to invest Arafat with the aura
of a head of state three years after his support of Saddam

Hussein in the Gulf War and on the basis of "granting" Israel
a status that is the automatic prerogative of nearly every
other nation? Was the euphoria in which we all shared a spur
to the process, whose most difficult stages are still ahead,

[Y]

P04

DE RIO TINTO MINERA, SA

15-09-93 18:12

to the process, whose most difficult stages are still ahead,
a status that is the automatic prelude of nearly every
other nation was the subject in which we air shared a joint
warship in the Gulf War and on the banks of Baghdad, further
of a class of state funerals where the subject of such a
unavoidable, was it possible to invest him with the same
by each party and what if it had been from an act of Parliament
these instances, for example, what authority was being recognised
its spirit to resolving the underlying questions which remain,
just can only be justified if all the parties concerned wish
unbarred. In the case of the Iraq War, the idea of the White House
baffled on the exhortation of Mirzae Aliyev under
possession of a discretionary veto, but after whom who does not
believe in the authority of the President, and on the basis of that
one of the traditions of fairly sales is to lift rights to the
terms,
therefore in the area will make a home of recognition which

SEP-15-1993 09:42

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or an obstacle to it if it leads to disillusionment after the
nearly inevitable deadlocks of the next stage have appeared?

However difficult these problems, they will be tackled in an
unprecedented atmosphere of goodwill. Almost as important is
the fact that these agreements were made by the parties
involved without American - or any other outside - pressure,
and without America's knowledge. This obliges them to living
in good faith with what they have built and to removing the
probable roadblocks. Though America did not participate in
drafting the agreement, its contribution to shaping its
consequences will be essential. And it should resist euphoria
so that it can foster hope.

The ceremony at the White House marked a psychological
breakthrough. But the most difficult substantive issues still
lie ahead. The Israeli-Palestinian agreement has two parts: an
interim agreement for five years in which Israel withdraws

[Y]

P05

DE RIO TINTO MINERA, SA

15-09-93 18:12

15-09-93 18:12

803

The terms of the agreement for five banks in which issued were
the same. The terms of the agreement were two: (1) the banks
were to pay the banks for the use of their branches and (2) the
banks were to pay the banks for the use of their tellers.

Consequently, it will be essential, and it is essential, that the
agreement of the banks, its contribution to the costs of
conducting the business, its contribution to the costs of
paying the bills of the banks, and the costs of the banks' use of
the banks' tellers and tellers' banks, be such that the banks
will be able to pay the costs of the banks' tellers and tellers' banks
and the costs of the banks' use of the banks' tellers and tellers' banks
in the event that the banks' tellers and tellers' banks do not
have sufficient tellers and tellers' banks to meet the demand for
the banks' tellers and tellers' banks.

0134-1288 6.92

10

RECORDATION COMMITTEE OF THE BOARD OF COMMERCE OF THE CITY OF NEW YORK

TO 0113454225951 P.06

[Y]

from Gaza and Jericho and establishes autonomy for the rest of
the West Bank, and a procedure for negotiating the final
settlement, which starts after two years. In the interim
agreement, Israel has traded some significant measure of
control over the occupied territories for a breathing space.
- after elections in
It will retire from Gaza and Jericho within four months; it will
abolish the military government over the rest of the occupied
territory, withdraw its troops from populated areas of the-
occupied territory, and turn over almost all of the civilian
administration to an elected council (within nine months) in
return for a process that establishes a Palestinian entity and
the PLO will accept Israel's recognition as the唯一legitimate
equal voice in the settlements, of Jerusalem, of its military
bases, the roads of the West Bank, and of external security
for all the occupied territories (including Gaza). Internal
security will be in the hands of what the agreement calls a
and Arab refugees
from theWest Bank and the Gaza Strip will be allowed to
 settle in a new settlement
in a few years in the West Bank.

P06

DE RIO TINTO MINERA, SA

15-09-93 18:12

SEP-15-1993 09:43

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"strong" police force recruited from Palestinians inside as well as outside the West Bank, provided the latter carry Egyptian or Jordanian passports.

These agreements are a significant and, above all, a necessary step forward. As all diplomatic documents, they represent a compromise which must be compared not with what each side would consider ideal, but with what would exist in the absence of the agreement. They are, however, the beginning of the march toward peace, not the end of it. And all the parties must learn to live with what they have built, which is quite different from what is familiar to them.

The most immediate issue is to understand what exactly has been recognized and who did the recognizing. Israel has recognized the PLO but seems to believe that it has not recognized a Palestinian state and that it can choose the representatives of the Palestinians with whom it is prepared

["The words \"understand\" and \"understand\" mean the words \"know\" and \"believe\" and \"assure\" and \"believe\" and \"assure\" and \"know\" and \"bel

SEP-15-1993 09:43

FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

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7
to deal. This is surely an illusion. I have in the past
expressed grave reservations about the consequences of
creating a Palestinian state. But after Arafat has been
received at the White House on an equal footing with Rabin and
elections are held in the occupied territories, a Palestinian
state is inevitable sooner or later. Its leadership will
emerge from the electoral process provided in the interim
agreement, which will also clarify which Palestinians have
recognized Israel.

It is clearly not the Hamas or the Hezbollah fundamentalists
controlled by Iran, nor the alphabet soup of PLO factions
(DFLP, PFLP, PLF, etc. - all based in Damascus) which condemn
the agreement. Does Arafat then speak for the PLO or for a
rump group? Any political leader must rally his constituency.
And in the past, the PLO has been an umbrella organization
including terrorists, rejectionists, and radicals, who cannot

[Y]

P08

DE RIO TINTO MINERA, SA

15-09-93 18:12

098 14:49 6-6-90 SI

P08

fouling territorians,ekoationists, and radiates, who cannot
in the bear, the pro has been an hostile organization
summets. And policy fessers and raily hits consistency,
the agreement. Does Viceroy then ask for the pro on for a
(MILIT., etc., etc., etc.) - all issued in Documents) which contains
controlled by Iran, nor the subjet bomb of pro locations
If it clearly not the name or the nomenclature of the
rearranged taxider.
agreement, which will also clarify which telegrams have
 transmitted from the electrical process broken in the first
state in the vitrobrate section on inter. the fœderating will
affect one is hard in the coupled territorians, aiation
received at the White House on an equal footing with Russia and
creating a partition area. But after Viceroy has been
enjoyed, done reservations about the consequence of
the best. This is entirely an situation. I was in the bear

SEP-15-1993 09:44 FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

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0113454225951 P.09

all have been converted to views contrary to those of a
lifetime. With the best will in the world, Arafat will be
unable to endow the agreement with the nearly mystical
significance given to it by many Israelis. Even granting
Arafat's unreserved commitment to peace, the pressures on him
will make him an increasingly complicated, perhaps even
irrelevant, partner. If he pursues a PLO consensus, he will be
ambiguous; if he goes beyond his constituency, he may be
removed or become irrelevant.

Of all the Arab adversaries of Israel, the Palestinians are
among the most attractive humanly, and those with the greatest
grievance. Egypt and Syria have insisted on their historic
borders - Egypt successfully, Syria, so far, inconclusively.
But once these are satisfied, they have no necessary incentive
to maintain their hostility (except to show solidarity with
Palestinians. But even the most moderate Palestinians will

[Y]

8

09d

DE RIO TINTO MINERA, SA

15-09-93 18:12

15-09-93 18:48

614

["Refusal to allow the agent to make a selection with\nthe understanding that the agent is not authorized to\nmake any selection on behalf of the customer, will\nbe considered a violation of this contract. In such\ncases, the customer will be entitled to seek legal\nrepresentation, which the agent will in his sole discretion\nwill determine is necessary to protect the interest\nof the customer in such selection. The customer will\nbe responsible for all expenses incurred by the agent\nin connection with such selection, including\nthe cost of the contract and the expenses of the\nagent in connection with the selection.\n\nThe agent will be entitled to be paid a commission\non all sales made by him in his capacity as a result\nof his selection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a commission\non all sales made by him in his capacity as a result of\nhis selection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made by\nhim in his capacity as a result of his selection, and\nwill be entitled to be paid a commission on all sales\nmade by him in his capacity as a result of his selection,\nand will be entitled to be paid a commission on all\nsales made by him in his capacity as a result of his\nselection, and will be entitled to be paid a\ncommission on all sales made by him in his capacity\nas a result of his selection, and will be entitled to\nbe paid a commission on all sales made by him in his\ncapacity as a result of his selection, and will be\nentitled to be paid a commission on all sales made

SEP-15-1993 09:44

FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

TO

0113454225951 P.10

find it difficult to look across whatever the dividing line turns out to be - at the lights of Jerusalem or Tel Aviv - without ambivalence. When they recognized Israel, did the Palestinians mean that they have become genuinely reconciled to its existence? Or was it with the same attitude that France renounced Alsace-Lorraine to Germany in 1971, as a stage in a continuing struggle?

I asked this question of a PLO representative after the signing ceremony. He answered: "I consider myself as coming from Jaffa. My children, who have never lived in Palestine, will also tell you they are from Jaffa." At the same time, he was voluble - and I believe sincere - in protesting his yearning for peace. The follow-on negotiations must strive to remove this ambivalence; they must make clear that there is a point beyond which Israel should not be asked to make concessions and that Israel's international support has been

[Y]

P10

15-09-93 18:48 P11

["port should be made to make\nconclusion and draw a general\nconclusion

SEP-15-1993 09:44

FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

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0113454225951 P.11

10

enhanced by the risks it is taking for peace. The major tasks will be to help Palestinians and Israelis to learn to live side by side.

Ironically, these sweeping agreements have occurred at a moment of weakness for both sides. The PLO is being squeezed. In the Gulf War it lost the financial support of the moderate Gulf states and the military and intelligence support of Iraq. Since the collapse of Communism, it has lost most of its friends outside the region. The growth of radical fundamentalism threatens it within the Muslim world. The PLO in fact needed the deal in order to survive, and its weakness was a reason for Israel to proceed lest it be left with only fundamentalists as partners. But this raises the question whether Arafat is strong enough to undertake the cooperative approach needed for a permanent agreement or whether, to secure his base, he will feel obliged gradually to step up the

[Y]

P11

DE RIO TINTO MINERA, SA

15-09-93 18:12

["The basic idea of the plan is to get the�neres and the allies to join the forces in a way that will be able to hold out against the forces of the enemy. The plan is to get the forces to meet up with the forces of the enemy and the allies to meet up with the forces of the enemy. This will be done by the forces of the enemy meeting with the forces of the allies and the forces of the enemy meeting with the forces of the allies. This will be done by the forces of the enemy meeting with the forces of the allies and the forces of the enemy meeting with the

SEP-15-1993 09:45

FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

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0113454225951 P.12

11

pressure on Israel. In his television appearances in America, he did little to foreclose the latter option.

As for Israel, much of its body politic seems to be psychologically drained. It yearns for an end to non-recognition, to intifadas, and the sense of permanent danger. It therefore has endowed the word "peace" with a quality for which there is no historic warrant whatsoever. In the past, recognition has not been an obstacle to war or even to conquest; almost all wars in history have started between nations legally at peace. Most Israelis expect from peace an almost Biblical conversion in which tensions disappear and they live in brotherhood with their Arab neighbors. No single agreement can fulfil this hope. Such a result can come - if at all - only at the end of a long historical process. The statements of too many leading Israelis ignore this reality

P12

DE RIO TINTO MINERA, SA

15-09-93 18:12

15-09-93 10:46

P14

[X]

agreements of the same nature and in the same quality
as that of the same kind of a foreign judicial process. The
agreement can fail if there is a case which can come to
the notice of the court in which the case is brought. It is
only at the end of a long judicial process that the
issuance of the order can take place.

M12-2458281 6/15

TO

0113454225951

P.13

12
and thereby may be setting the stage for a monumental let-
down.

At the same time, the Palestinians must not delude
themselves that they can build their traditional pressure
tactics into the context of the PLO/Israeli agreement. The

[Y]

P13

DE RIO TINTO MINERA, SA

15-09-93 18:12

19:44 20-01-91

E14

["The parties agree to the contract of the Protocol of the United Nations on the right to build their institutional buildings. The Contract is final in the context of the Protocol of the United Nations on

SEP-15-1993 09:46

FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

TO

0113454225951 P.14

13
follow-on negotiations cannot succeed and coexistence in the
occupied territories would be thwarted if the PLO returned to
harassment, not to speak of terrorism. The road to progress
lies in enhancing the *Israelis'* sense of security *by the Israeli people*.

In the immediate future, Israel will gain considerable
benefits. It will be rid of the nearly half of the total Arab
population of the occupied territories living in Gaza. It will
be able to withdraw its forces from the population centers in
the rest of the occupied territories and thus reduce, perhaps
even eliminate, the impact of the intifada. *some* cooperative
patterns between Israeli and Arab authorities on the West Bank
are sure to develop. Relations with other Arab countries will
improve, though I would expect full recognition to be withheld
pending agreement on an overall settlement.

P14

DE RIO TINTO MINERA, SA

15-09-93 18:12

9:19 10.9.93

P14

[Y]

SEP-15-1993 09:46

FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

TO

0113454225951 P.15

and in the establishment of the PLO authority in the occupied territories. After a while, this fact is bound to alter the negotiating pattern fundamentally. Once follow-on negotiations begin, the continuing presence of Israeli settlements, military bases, and unrestricted use of roads is likely to be challenged, at first by the dissident elements of the Arab population but sooner or later by the established leaders if they want to retain public support. The follow-on negotiations are the main forum for defusing these tensions.

A perhaps more serious challenge will come from within the Muslim world. Since 1948, every progress toward peace in the Middle East has been followed by an increase in terrorism as dissident groups try to interrupt the process, either by assassinating those who carry it forward, as happened to Sadat, or by triggering Israeli retaliation. Some leading Israelis seem to believe that Arafat and the police force peace.

P15

DE RIO TINTO MINERA, SA

15-09-93 18:12

15-09-93 10:49

14

SEP-15-1993 09:46

FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

TO

0113454225951

15

will be permitted to organize will help keep the West Bank quiet. Arafat certainly has an incentive to establish himself as a responsible leader. But it is difficult to believe that he is able to move from his previous tacit encouragement of terrorism to all-out cooperation with Israel against his own constituencies. Indeed, the "strong" Palestinian police force envisioned in the agreement could become a study in ambivalence. With what energy will they resist acts to complicate the Israeli presence? At what point do they become the problem rather than the solution?

The most serious danger is that the dissident groups will try to create Lebanese-style conditions in the occupied territories. The central authorities may not be able to prevent terrorism, either against moderate Arabs or against Israelis on the West Bank, or even inside Israel. If conditions become too chaotic, Israel may intervene or outside

P16

DE RIO TINTO MINERA, SA

15-09-93 18:12

15-09-93 14:49

P18

CYI

SEP-15-1993 09:47

FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

TO

0113454225951 P.17

16

The key to a permanent peace rests on how well the interim arrangements can be made to work. Israel will have to abandon the occupation mentality; the PLO will have to give up the intifada mentality and demonstrate it by reacting sharply to terrorism. The two societies must learn the realities of coexistence which are far more complex than a moment of exaltation on the White House lawn.

P17

DE RIO TINTO MINERA, SA

15-09-93 18:12

10-09-93 10:49

P17

SEP-15-1993 09:48

FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

TO

0113454225951 P.19

18

Fitting two states into a territory fifty miles wide - the distance from the Mediterranean to the Jordan - would be difficult even if irredentism were not built into the situation. When I was involved in Middle East diplomacy, I favored the Jericho-Gaza portion of the present arrangement, though in favor of Jordan rather than of the PLO. And I was quite unhappy when Israel refused to consider it. Some years later, I had an occasion to drive from Jerusalem to Jericho. We reached our destination in less than thirty minutes. This did not alter my view that a mistake had been made by Israel but it did bring home to me how little land there is to work with and how precarious the situation is for all parties. Jerusalem carries even greater emotional freight. And the settlements will be an even more complex issue.

A final settlement will require a sense of established attitudes as professed as what bangers the peace进程 this far.

[Y]

P19

DE RIO TINTO MINERA, SA

15-09-93 18:12

interference will be an even more complex matter.

The United States has even greater emotional strength. And the

with and how precautions should be taken to prevent it. But if we are to

get not only our lives but also our property safe from fire, we must

be prepared for the possibility of fire. And if we are to have a

strong and effective fire department, we must have a fireman who is

able to act with the same kind of judgment and experience that a

fireman should have in a fireman's own department.

01-1003-21-1003 12/12/2021

11

FROM: WISCONSIN CONSTITUTION, INC. 12-2-1926 10:48 AM

TO

0113454225951 P.20

19

The movement toward a permanent settlement is likely to ~~be ~~negotiated ~~is nearly inevitable. ~~traverse a series of deadlocks~~ It will become apparent that Israel's security does not permit it to return to the '67 borders while Arab dignity will prove incompatible with the maintenance of all Israeli settlements. And Jerusalem continues to be a holy city for both parties, as the statements of both Rabin and Arafat in Washington have made clear.

~~Betty~
~~Israelis and Palestinians will need to realize that they are~~
now facing a new reality, which they have themselves created~~
without American pressure. Israel will no longer confront Arab~~
nations negotiating on behalf of a sometimes obstreperous ally~~
and occasionally just going through the motions of doing so~~
~~They will henceforth be dealing with a Palestinian entity~~
with a ~~ whom they would ~~be~~ treated as a terrorist. ~~His~~
~~whose leader can no longer be~~ represented an Palestinian entity ~~who~~
new represents ~~a Palestinian entity~~ who ~~now~~
claims will ~~therefore carry more foreign weight; and his~~
~~international~~

P20

[Y]

SEP-15-1993 09:49

FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

TO

0113454225951

P.21

20

capacity to generate political pressures will be much
enhanced.

The Palestinians are also more on their own. They have negotiated the present framework without informing most of their Arab partners. They are therefore in greater need of more time generating their own incentives for a settlement. And they should know that the present process is their last chance.

Whether all this leads to greater flexibility or greater
tension depends in part on the United States. Until now, every
Arab-Israeli agreement has been brokered by the United States
and many of the formulas leading to solutions were designed in
Washington. Arab negotiators were counting on America to
induce Israel to make concessions they did not have the means
to evoke. Israel went along (and sometimes encouraged) such an
American role to maintain support from its principal friend and
ailing neighbor.

[Y]

P21

15-09-93 16:45

P21

DE RIO TINTO MINERA, SA

15-09-93 18:12

SEP-15-1993 09:49

FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

TO

0113454225951 P.22

21

America is not needed on a daily basis - hard as this may be for some our more missionary experts to accept. When America assumes responsibility for breaking all deadlocks, it might have the pesverde effect of encouraging them. The parties strike intransigent poses for their domestic constituencies and maneuver America into forcing them into doing what they deep down know to be necessary, and would eventually do on their own - as they have this time. America can be proud of a

[Y]

15-09-93 18:12

DE RIO TINTO MINERA, SA

P22

["their own - as they have this film. America can be proud of a\nbrave man who knows he is necessary, and would voluntarily go on\nand manouver America into bearing the brunt of what they\nrequire. Independent bases for their domestic considerations\nhave been established - and the buffer\nshould be established - to guard the coasts of the country\nagainst any foreign attack. The buffer\nshould be established - and the buffer\nshould be established - to guard the coasts of the country\nagainst any foreign attack. If some\nof our more missionary exiles to America\nfor some other reason were to come\nAmERICA IS NOT MENTIONED ON A CARRY PAPER -\nand the buffer should be established -\n

SEP-15-1993 09:49

FROM KISSINGER CONSULTING

TO

0113454225951

22
consistent policy carried through six administrations of both

parties that now enables Arabs and Israelis to assume a
~~the two parties to make cigarettes directly~~
~~greater responsibility for the nitty-gritty of negotiations~~

What America must not do is to offer its military forces as
the *deus ex machina* for solving every issue. Nothing would
more undermine the willingness of the American people to
support the peace process than a permanent stationing of

P23

DE RIO TINTO MINERA, SA

15-09-93 18:12

15 09-93 10:49

P23

C4J

["suppose the base process from a permanent stationing of\nmore inhabitants of the American people to\nthe country of the British West Indies. Working with the\ndemocracies for solving the problem of the American people\nin the country of the British West Indies, working with

SEP-15-1993 09:50

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23 especially since American combat troops—this is especially true of the heavily populated territories on the West Bank—will have to carry out their own military and economic战备任务.

certainly repeat the experience of the Arab world.

1. It must rally support for the economic development of the autonomous area. Most of these funds should come from the Arab world.

2. It should use its influence with other Arab countries to move rapidly to deal with Israel and to play a moderating role with the Palestinians. At a minimum, the Arab boycott of Israel should be lifted.

3. It should be available at times of deadlock without returning to its previous dominating role.

4. It should organize plausible international sanctions against terrorism and make clear to the PLO that, to America, this is a key test of its seriousness.

[Y]

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China is a key factor in the situation.

Againstdekron and more clear to the BPO that, to America,
4) it should organic disease international amorphous
returning to its previous dominating role.

3) It should be available at times of shortage without
tariff should be fixed.

with the sale of the Ammonia, the Ammonia yield of
move rapidly to cut with tariff and to pay a moderating role
3) It should have its influence with other world countries to
move rapidly to cut with tariff and to pay a moderating role
world.

autonomous areas. Most of these countries should come from the Asia
f) it must really support for the economic development of the
America should focus on these principal tasks:

Caucasus and the ex-Soviet Union, the former Soviet Union, the
republics territories on the West Bank and the Middle East
American countries - especially the area of the Levant

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5) It should avoid permanent peacekeeping functions, especially in the West Bank. Before offering a guarantee, we must know what we are guaranteeing and how to implement it. And we must know what we are promising.

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["The words in italics are the parties to the contract.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n1. A company named A in its legal name. It is a foreign company. It has a branch in Paris, France.\n\n2. A company named B in its legal name. It has a branch in London, England.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n3. A company named C in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n4. A company named D in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n5. A company named E in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n6. A company named F in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n7. A company named G in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n8. A company named H in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n9. A company named I in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n10. A company named J in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n11. A company named K in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n12. A company named L in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n13. A company named M in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n14. A company named N in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n15. A company named O in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n16. A company named P in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n17. A company named Q in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n18. A company named R in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n19. A company named S in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n20. A company named T in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n21. A company named U in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n22. A company named V in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n23. A company named W in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n24. A company named X in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n25. A company named Y in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n26. A company named Z in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n27. A company named A in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n28. A company named B in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n29. A company named C in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n30. A company named D in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n31. A company named E in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n32. A company named F in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n33. A company named G in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n34. A company named H in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n35. A company named I in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n36. A company named J in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n37. A company named K in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n38. A company named L in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n39. A company named M in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n40. A company named N in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n41. A company named O in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n42. A company named P in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n43. A company named Q in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n44. A company named R in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n45. A company named S in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n46. A company named T in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n47. A company named U in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n48. A company named V in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n49. A company named W in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n50. A company named X in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n51. A company named Y in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n52. A company named Z in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n53. A company named A in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n54. A company named B in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n55. A company named C in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n56. A company named D in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n57. A company named E in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n58. A company named F in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n59. A company named G in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n60. A company named H in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n61. A company named I in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n62. A company named J in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n63. A company named K in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n64. A company named L in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n65. A company named M in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n66. A company named N in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n67. A company named O in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n68. A company named P in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n69. A company named Q in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n70. A company named R in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n71. A company named S in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n72. A company named T in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n73. A company named U in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n74. A company named V in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n75. A company named W in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n76. A company named X in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n77. A company named Y in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n78. A company named Z in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n79. A company named A in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n80. A company named B in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n81. A company named C in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n82. A company named D in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n83. A company named E in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n84. A company named F in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n85. A company named G in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n86. A company named H in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n87. A company named I in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n88. A company named J in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n89. A company named K in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n90. A company named L in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n91. A company named M in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n92. A company named N in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n93. A company named O in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n94. A company named P in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n95. A company named Q in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n96. A company named R in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n97. A company named S in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n98. A company named T in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n99. A company named U in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n100. A company named V in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n101. A company named W in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n102. A company named X in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n103. A company named Y in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n104. A company named Z in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n105. A company named A in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n106. A company named B in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n107. A company named C in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n108. A company named D in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n109. A company named E in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n110. A company named F in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n111. A company named G in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n112. A company named H in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n113. A company named I in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n114. A company named J in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n115. A company named K in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n116. A company named L in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n117. A company named M in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n118. A company named N in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n119. A company named P in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n120. A company named Q in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n121. A company named R in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n122. A company named S in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n123. A company named T in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n124. A company named U in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n125. A company named V in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n126. A company named W in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n127. A company named X in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n128. A company named Y in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n129. A company named Z in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n130. A company named A in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n131. A company named B in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n132. A company named C in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n133. A company named D in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n134. A company named E in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n135. A company named F in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n136. A company named G in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n137. A company named H in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n138. A company named I in its legal name. It has a branch in Toronto, Canada, Canada, Canada.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n139. A company named J in its legal name. It has a branch in Washington, D.C., United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n140. A company named K in its legal name. It has a branch in New York, New York, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n141. A company named L in its legal name. It has a branch in Tokyo, Japan, Japan, Japan.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n142. A company named M in its legal name. It has a branch in Sydney, Australia, Australia, Australia.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n143. A company named N in its legal name. It has a branch in Chicago, Illinois, Illinois, United States of America.\n\nThe parties to the contract are the following:\n\n144. A company named O in its

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being recognized by each party, and what was its long term
significance? However unavoidable, was it premature to invest
Arafat with the aura of a head of state on the basis of
"granting" Israel a status that is the automatic prerogative
of nearly every other nation? Was the inescapable euphoria a
spur to the process whose most difficult stages are still
ahead, or an obstacle if it leads to disillusionment when the
nearly inevitable deadlocks of the next stage appear?

It was a moving occasion, extending vast opportunities. Only
the most churlish or fanatical will refuse to join the
*several* palpable lies on which the claim
widespread hopes that Palestinians and Israelis sharing a
territory only fifty miles wide from the Mediterranean to the
Jordan River will have learned that, in conflict, both are
condemned to permanent loss; that they will therefore settle
the remaining issues, which happen to be all the major ones,
in the same spirit of goodwill that characterized the

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3

ceremony; that Israel and the now inevitable Palestinian state
will live side by side much as Holland and Belgium do, such-an-
outside would benefit not only the peoples of Israel and
Palestine, but all the peoples of the Middle East. In that
vision, the other states of the area would make peace with
Israel, which will serve as a kind of high-tech center for the
area. At the end of the five year process set aside for
negotiations, genuine peace would come to the area not only in
the legal sense of the word but spiritually as well.

The mere fact that such prospects can even be enumerated,
marks the achievement of what has been celebrated.

Yet how realistic are such hopes? It is an important
question for America, which had no role in the actual drafting
of the agreement but which is expected to play a decisive role
in shaping its consequences.

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4

The Israeli-Palestinian agreement has two parts: an interim agreement for five years in which Israel withdraws from Gaza and Jericho and establishes autonomy for the rest of the West Bank, and a procedure for negotiating the final settlement. In the interim agreement, Israel has traded some significant measures of control over the occupied territories for a breathing space. It will retire from Gaza and Jericho and will abolish the military government over the rest of the territory in return for a process that leads to a Palestinian state. The PLO has agreed to leave Israel in control of the settlements, of Jerusalem, of its military bases, and of the roads of the West Bank, as well as of external security for all the occupied territories (including Gaza), for a five-year period. During that period, a permanent agreement is supposed to be negotiated. Internal security will be in the hands of what the agreement calls a "strong" police force recruited

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expressed grave reservations about the consequences of creating a Palestinian state. But after Arafat has been received at the White House on an equal footing with Rabin and elections are held in the occupied territories, a Palestinian state is inevitable. Its leadership will emerge from the electoral process provided in the interim agreement, which is supposed to take place within nine months. These and subsequent elections will determine the leadership of the new state, which will also clarify which Palestinians have recognized Israel.

It is clearly not the Hamas or the Hezbollah fundamentalists controlled by Iran, nor the alphabet soup of PLO factions (DFLP, PFLP, PLE, etc. - all based in Damascus) which condemn the agreement. Does Arafat then speak for the PLO or for a rump group? Any political leader must rally his constituency.

It therefore seems unlikely that he can endow the agreement with the best will in it to would Arafat will be unable to.

And in the past the PLO has been an unfortunately organized by microscopy. Tumours, rejectionists and radicals who cannot live with all those conveniences and radicals who cannot live with all those conveniences and radicals who cannot live with all those conveniences.

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But this raises the question whether Arafat is strong enough
to undertake the cooperative approach needed for a permanent
agreement or whether, to secure his base, his incentive is
gradually to step up the pressure on Israel.

As for Israel, much of its body politic seems to be
psychologically drained. It yearns for an end to non-
recognition, to intifadas, and the sense of permanent danger.
It therefore has endowed the word "peace" with a quality for
which there is no historic warrant whatsoever. In the past,
recognition has not been an obstacle to war or even to
conquest; almost all wars in history have started between
nations legally at peace. Most Israelis expect from peace an
almost Biblical conversion in which tensions disappear and
they live in brotherhood with their Arab neighbors. No single
agreement can fulfil this hope. Such a result can come - if at

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all - only at the end of a long historical process. The statements of too many leading Israelis ignore this reality and thereby may be setting the stage for a monumental let-down.

The mutual recognition is therefore far from symmetrical. Of all the Arab adversaries of Israel, the Palestinians are among the most attractive humanly, and those with the greatest grievance. Egypt and Syria have insisted on their historic borders - Egypt successfully, Syria, so far, inconclusively. But once these are satisfied, they have no necessary incentive to go-beyond their except to show solidarity with Palestinians. But even the most moderate Palestinians will find it difficult to look across whatever the dividing line turns out to be - at the lights of Jerusalem or Tel Aviv - without feeling a twinge of regret at the loss of what they are bound to consider Palestinian territory. When they recognized Israel, did the

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Palestinians mean that they have become genuinely reconciled to its existence? Or was it with the same attitude that France renounced Alsace-Lorraine to Germany in 1871, as a stage in a continuing struggle? Not even the most moderate Palestinians are in a position to give a conclusive answer, if only because they cannot know what they will feel until the final borders are drawn.

At the latest after the West Bank elections in nine months' time, the Israeli recognition of the Palestinian entity (and soon-to-be state) will be irrevocable, as will be the Israeli withdrawal. Israeli politicians who speak blithely of abrogating the agreement or of reoccupying vacated areas are deluding themselves. The international isolation such acts would produce would prove unsustainable. And even if Israel should withdraw its recognition of a Palestinian entity, the rest of the world would not follow. The Palestinians, on the

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other hand, always have the option of at least breaking off
talks and thereby returning Israel to a status not so
dissimilar from non-recognition.

Thus the likely evolution is that Israel benefits more from
the beginning of the current peace process and that the
Palestinian bargaining position improves with the passage of
time.

In the immediate future, Israel will gain considerable
benefits. It will be rid of the nearly half of the total Arab
population of the occupied territories living in Gaza. It will
be able to withdraw its forces from the population centers in
the rest of the occupied territories and thus reduce, perhaps
even eliminate, the impact of the intifada. Some cooperative
patterns between Israeli and Arab authorities on the West Bank
are sure to develop. Relations with other Arab countries will

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[x]

are known to develop. Relations with certain Arab and non-Arab countries will
be建立 between Israel and other authorities on the West Bank and the East
Borders between Israel and Jordan. Israel will seek to maintain its
influence in the area of the Jordan Valley and the Negev region, and will
use its influence in the area of the Negev and Dead Sea areas to further
its interests in the area of the Jordan Valley and the Negev region.

Israel and Egypt have the option of at least breaking off their
relations with other Arab countries, and will seek to maintain their
relations with the United States and other Western countries.

11

["Aبارقا morelar birlikte sohbet eden bir\nyabancı dili ile sohbet eden birer birer\nMuharrem veşid. Biriye 1948'de, bazı kişiler\nyabancı dili ile sohbet eden birer birer\nWahid'in birlikte sohbet eden birer birer\nyabancı dili ile sohbet eden birer birer\nyabancı dili ile

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A perhaps more serious challenge will come from within the Muslim world. Since 1948, every progress toward peace in the Middle East has been followed by an increase in terrorism as dissident groups try to interrupt the process, either by assassinating those who carry it forward, as happened to Sadat, or by triggering Israeli retaliation. Some leading Israelis seem to believe that Arafat and the police force he will be permitted to organize will help keep the West Bank quiet. Arafat certainly has an incentive to establish himself as a responsible leader. But it is difficult to believe that he is able to move from his previous tacit encouragement of all-out cooperation in terrorism to cooperating with Israel against his own constituencies. Indeed, the "strong" Palestinian police force envisioned in the agreement could become a study in ambivalence. With what energy will they resist acts to

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["A bank more particular challenge will come from within who\nwill be able to provide a loan to the government, either by\nissuing a note or notes, or by issuing a bill of exchange\nwhich will be accepted to pay off the bill of exchange.\nWhat is more, the government will need to issue a note\nof exchange which will be accepted by the government to\npay off the bill of exchange.\n\nThe government should issue a note which will be\nrecognized by the government as a substitute for the bill of exchange.\n\nThe government should issue a note which will be\n

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Palestinians - a stake in an evolutionary approach. The outside-world should rally for substantial assistance in security. This program, for which America has quite properly taken the lead, must meet the major resources should come from the Arab world. And with the best will in the world, the final reconciliation will be reached.

With the best will in the world, the final reconciliation between Palestinians and Israelis can not take place until the permanent settlement is concluded. Yet none of the key issues has been dealt with in the present agreement - not borders, not settlements, not Jerusalem. In the short term, that is the strength of the agreement; in the long term, a peril.

Fitting two states into a territory fifty miles wide - the distance from the Mediterranean to the Jordan - would be difficult even if irredentism were not built into the situation. When I was involved in Middle East diplomacy, I favored the Jericho-Gaza portion of the present arrangement, though in favor of Jordan rather than the PLO. And I was quite

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Thus, the parties will soon find that the operation of the agreement is painful and that the movement toward a permanent settlement is likely to traverse a series of deadlocks. It will become apparent that Israel's security does not permit it to return to the '67 borders while Arab dignity will prove incompatible with the maintenance of all Israeli settlements.

And Jerusalem continues to be a holy city for both parties as the statements of both Rabin and Perel in Washington have made clear

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Incumbent with the maintenance of all Israel settlements.

To return to the fact that Israel will prove
will become a dependent that Israel a security base and benefit it
benefit in likely to transfer a series of settlements. If
agreement in Jerusalem and settlements movement found a horizon
that the parties will seek a long-term settlement on the question
will be an even more complex issue.

Israel can transfer additional forces and the settlement
and do consequences the situation to for all parties. Jerusalem
it will bring home to us for little time there is to work which
not after my view that a mistake and been made by Israel but
referred our question in less than friendly manner. This did
I had an occasion to drive from Jerusalem to Jerusalem. We
narrify when Israel returned to consider it. Some years later,
if

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Israelis and Palestinians will need to realize that they are now facing a new reality which they have themselves created without American pressure. Israel will no longer confront Arab nations negotiating on behalf of a sometimes obstreperous ally and occasionally just going through the motions of doing so. They will henceforth be dealing with a Palestinian entity whose leader can no longer be treated as a terrorist. His claims will therefore carry more formal weight, and his capacity to generate political pressures will be much enhanced.

The Palestinians are also more on their own. They have negotiated the present framework without informing most of their Arab partners. They are therefore in greater need of Andrey should know what the present generating their own incentives for a settlement. Whether all this leads to greater flexibility or greater tension depends in part on the United States.

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The Palauans are the same ones on their own. They have
enjoyed.

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18

The role of the United States will be complex. Until now, every Arab-Israeli agreement has been brokered by the United States and many of the formulae leading to solutions were designed in Washington. Arab negotiators were counting on America to induce Israel to make concessions they did not have the means to evoke. Israel went along (and sometimes encouraged) such an American role to maintain support from its principal friend.

On this occasion, the United States was on the sidelines, apparently uninformed and not emerging until the final signing ceremony. The reasons for the near exclusion of the United States were the newness of the Clinton administration, the slowness in developing an American position, and the parties' lack of confidence in America's ability to maintain secrecy. It is the second time that fear of American formalism has brought the Middle East parties together, for Sadat journeyed

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["brought the Middle East issue together, for a fabric journey\nthat is the second time the first fear of American terrorism has\nfled at confidence in America's ability to maintain security.\nWisdom in developing American policies, and the parties\nstates were the names of the Clinton administration, the\nreasons for the user expropriation of the United\noyalty, and not warping until the final signing\non the occasion, the United States was on the abdication,\nbasically intact and not warping until the final signing\non the occasion, the United States was on the abdication,\nbasically intact and not warping until the final signing\non the occasion, the United States was on the abdication,", "basically intact and not warping until the final signing\non the occasion, the United States was on the abdication,\nbasically intact and

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19
to Jerusalem in large part as an alternative to an American-
sponsored general conference with its attendant rigidities.
But just as then, the American role remains indispensable.
America made the Camp David accords possible; America is
needed for the follow-up negotiations.

But the previous pattern should be altered. There is no
magic-in-a-day-American role. Indeed, if America were,
to assume responsibility for breaking all deadlocks, it might
have the perverse effect of encouraging them. The parties
intend strike intransigent poses for their domestic
constituencies and maneuver America into forcing them into
doing what they deep down know to be necessary, and would
eventually do on their own - as they have this time.
America can be proud of a consistent policy carried through
six administrations of both parties that now enables Arabs and

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20
Israelis to assume a greater responsibility for the nitty-gritty of negotiations.

In the future, America will have these principal tasks:

4) It should arlenge plausible solutions and support for a plan that will be acceptable to both sides and will ensure a long-term peace.

5) It should avoid permanent peacekeeping functions, especially in the West Bank. Before offering guarantees, we must know what we are guaranteeing and how to implement the promise.

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C73

2970 Words

Dr. Kissinger Newsweek Article 9/13/93

Having had the honor of attending the historic signing
ceremony between Israel and the PLO at the White House, I felt
slightly guilty about my feelings of ambivalence. Here was my
trusted friend, Yitzhak Rabin, a partner in so many diplomatic
efforts and conversations over three decades. And there was
Yasir Arafat, from whom I had received quite a few messages
which I had been obliged to rebuff because of the conventions
and convictions of the period that was now ending. And the
chairmanship of President Clinton magnified our country's
acknowledged leadership role in which Americans can take
pride.

Every instinct impelled me to join in the mood of
celebration. But nagging questions remained. What exactly was

[x]

2

It was a moving occasion portending vast opportunities. Only
the most churlish or fanatical will refuse to join the
widespread hope that Palestinians and Israelis sharing a
territory only fifty miles wide from the Mediterranean to the
Jordan River will have learned that, in conflict, both are
condemned to permanent misery; that they will therefore settle
the remaining issues, which happen to be all the major ones,
in the same spirit of goodwill that characterized the

X

[Y]

3

ceremony; that Israel and the now inevitable Palestinian state
will live side by side much as Holland and Belgium do. Such an
outcome would benefit not only the peoples of Israel and
Palestine, but all the peoples of the Middle East. In that
vision, the other states of the area would make peace with
Israel, which will serve as a kind of high-tech center for the
area. At the end of the five year process set aside for
negotiations, genuine peace would come to the area not only in
the legal sense of the word but spiritually as well.

X

4

The Israeli-Palestinian agreement has two parts: an interim agreement for five years in which Israel withdraws from Gaza and Jericho and establishes autonomy for the rest of the West Bank, and a procedure for negotiating the final settlement. In the interim agreement, Israel has traded some significant measure of control over the occupied territories for a breathing space. It will retire from Gaza and Jericho and abolish the military government over the rest of the territory in return for a process certain to lead to a Palestinian state. The PLO has agreed to leave Israel in control of the settlements, of Jerusalem, of its military bases, and of the roads of the West Bank, as well as of external security for all the occupied territories (including Gaza) for a five-year period. During that period, a permanent agreement is supposed to be negotiated. Internal security will be in the hands of what the agreement calls a "strong" police force recruited

X

5

These agreements are a significant step forward. As all
diplomatic documents, they represent a compromise which must
be compared not with what each side would consider ideal, but
with what would exist in the absence of the agreement. In this
article I will address the pitfalls ahead, many of which would
have existed even in the absence of an agreement. My
assessment is designed as a corrective to excessive euphoria,
not as an attack on the hopes evoked by these dramatic events.

The most immediate issue is to understand what exactly has
been recognized, and who did the recognizing. Israel has
recognized the PLO but it seems to believe that it has not
recognized a Palestinian state and that it can choose the
representatives of the Palestinians with whom it is prepared
to deal. This is surely an illusion. I have in the past

6

expressed grave reservations about the consequences of
creating a Palestinian state. But after Arafat has been
received at the White House on an equal footing with Rabin and
elections are held in the occupied territories, a Palestinian
state is inevitable. Its leadership will emerge from the
electoral process foreseen in the interim agreement which is
supposed to take place within nine months. These and
subsequent elections will determine the leadership of the new
state. They will also clarify which Palestinians have
recognized Israel.

It is clearly not the Hamas or the Hezbollah fundamentalists
controlled by Iran, nor the alphabet soup of PLO factions
(DFLP, PFLP, PLF, etc. - all based in Damascus) which condemn
the agreement. Does Arafat then speak for the PLO or for a
rump group? Any political leader must rally his constituency.
It therefore seems unlikely that he can endow the agreement

X

7

with the nearly mystical significance given to it by many
Israelis. Even granting Arafat's sincerity, the pressures on
him will make him an increasingly complicated, perhaps even
irrelevant, partner in moving through the minefield of
implementing this complex agreement. If he pursues his
incentives, he will be troublesome; if he acts responsibly, he
may be removed and become irrelevant.

This most sweeping of Arab-Israeli arrangements so far
occurs at a moment of weakness for both sides. The PLO is
being squeezed. In the Gulf War it lost the financial support
of the moderate Gulf states and the military and intelligence
support of Iraq. Since the collapse of Communism, it has been
deprived of the support of most of its friends outside the
region. The growth of radical fundamentalism threatens it
within the Muslim world. The PLO in fact needed the deal in
order to survive, and its weakness was a reason for Israel to

8

X

9

The mutual recognition is therefore far from symmetrical. Of all the Arab adversaries of Israel, the Palestinians are among the most attractive humanly, and those with the greatest grievance. Egypt and Syria have insisted on their historic borders - Egypt successfully, Syria, so far, inconclusively. But once these are satisfied, they have no necessary incentive to go beyond them except to show solidarity with Palestinians. But even the most moderate Palestinians will find it difficult to look across whatever the dividing line turns out to be - at the lights of Jerusalem or Tel Aviv - without feeling a twinge of regret at the loss of what they are bound to consider Palestinian territory. When they recognized Israel, did the

X

[Y]

10

[Y]

11

X

12

The Palestinians' major achievement in the initial period
resides in the de facto recognition of a Palestinian entity.
After a while, this fact is bound to alter the negotiating
pattern fundamentally. During the interim agreement, the
presence of Israeli settlements, military bases, and
unrestricted use of roads is likely to be challenged, at first
by the dissident elements of the Arab population but sooner or
later by the established leaders if they want to retain public
support. Israel is therefore unlikely to enjoy a five-year
respite. The continuing Israeli presence is likely to be
harassed, at least diplomatically, on what will increasingly
be considered Arab soil by the local population and, in great
part, by the rest of the world as well.

[Y]

13

A perhaps more serious challenge will come from within the Muslim world. Since 1948, every progress toward peace in the Middle East has been followed by an increase in terrorism as dissident groups try to interrupt the process, either by assassinating those who carry it forward, as happened to Sadat, or by triggering Israeli retaliation. Some leading Israelis seem to believe that Arafat and the police force he will be permitted to organize will help keep the West Bank quiet. Arafat certainly has an incentive to establish himself as a responsible leader. But it is difficult to believe that he is able to move from his previous tacit encouragement of terrorism to cooperating with Israel against his own constituencies. Indeed, the "strong" Palestinian police force envisioned in the agreement could become a study in ambivalence. With what energy will they resist acts to

14

The most serious danger is that the dissident groups will be
strong enough to try to create Lebanese-style conditions on
the West Bank. The central authorities may not be able to
prevent terrorism, either against moderate Arabs or against
Israelis on the West Bank, or even inside Israel. If
conditions become too chaotic, Israel may intervene or outside
Arab forces may try to infiltrate the West bank, or both. This
could then usher in another Middle East war.

Thus, even in the interim period, there will be many
unsolved, perhaps insoluble, problems requiring an
extraordinary degree of cooperation between the two sides.
While the role of economic development is often exaggerated,
in this case rapid progress in that field is one of the few
tools available to give the parties - and especially the

[Y]

15

Palestinians - a stake in an evolutionary approach. The outside world should rally for a substantial assistance program, for which America has quite properly taken the lead, though the major resources should come from the Arab world.

X

[Y]

16

Thus, the parties will soon find that the operation of the
agreement is painful and that the movement toward a permanent
settlement is likely to traverse a series of deadlocks. It
will become apparent that Israel's security does not permit it
to return to the '67 borders while Arab dignity will prove
incompatible with the maintenance of all Israeli settlements.
And Jerusalem continues to be a holy city for both parties.

X

[Y]

17

The Palestinians are also more on their own. They have negotiated the present framework without informing most of their Arab partners. They are therefore in greater need of generating their own incentives for a settlement. Whether all this leads to greater flexibility or greater tension depends in part on the United States.

X

18

[Y]

19

But the previous pattern should be altered. There is no
magic in a day-to-day American role. Indeed, if America were
to assume responsibility for breaking all deadlocks, it might
have the perverse effect of encouraging them. The parties
might strike intransigent poses for their domestic
constituencies and maneuver America into forcing them into
doing what they deep down know to be necessary, and would
eventually do on their own - as they have this time.

America can be proud of a consistent policy carried through
six administrations of both parties that now enables Arabs and

X

20

Israelis to assume a greater responsibility for the nitty-
gritty of negotiations.

4) It should avoid permanent peacekeeping functions, especially in the West Bank. Before offering guarantees, we must know what we are guaranteeing and how to implement the promise.

X

[Y]

21

In assessing these difficulties, it is important to
understand how far all the parties have already come. What
will determine the future is not the magnitude of the task,
but the magnitude of the resolution with which it is tackled.

X