[Y]

CHECK-LIST -- NEGOTIATIONS

Role of NLF

Free Elections -- Meaning? Level? How do you determine will of people?

Cease fire

Surfacing of VC units

Recognized control

Return to '54 award -- Get text --"See they can't win." Why do they negotiate?

Verification of stoppage. Is international machinery better than our intelligence collection?

Political stability in Vietnam

NLF representation

SVN -- When brought in? How?

DVR role in political structure of S.

Who negotiates? Multilateral? Bilateral? What?

Radio traffic

Who is opposite?

Timing -- Who stops what? When?

What will be position if negotiations fail? Have VC then in fact dug in?

If we stop air attack and Hanoi then withdraws from negotiations, are we then stuck with NLF?

What feelers exist?

List of negotiating forums.

Free elections: Plebiscite on persons?
Referendum on issues?
How do you run local government?

Referendum on taxes?

List of negotiating terms.

What theories exist?

Stock with NTE?

If we stop sir stack and Hamot then withdraw from negotiations, are we then
What will be position it negotiations fail? Have AC then in fact drag in?

Timing -- Who at once what? When?

Who is opposite?

Radio traffic

Who negotiates? Multilaterals? Bilaterals? What?

DAR role in political structure of S.

SAN -- When brought in? How?

NTE representation

Political ability in Vietnam
dence collection?

Verification of accounts. Is international machinery better than om. intelligence?

Return to '84 award -- Get text --"See they can't win." Why do they negotiate?

Recognised control

Surrounding of AC units

Cessation fire

Role of NTE

CHECKLIST -- NEGOTIATIONS

[A]

was indigona?

Do we then not in effect certify that any new which started up again
It still AC, how do we know?

3. VII AC --Hanoi obsolescence redroming of demine southerners

2. AC hard-core units in South

1. DRA regular forces

C. Who evacuates 2. Vietnam

B. NRE participation in government before election

V. Timing of US withdrawal

III. Disagreements

D. Remitigation only by beseief mesna

C. Non-interference by two Vietnamese in each other's affairs

B. No military presence in part of province

interference.

V. Principle of US withdrawal though not until SAM freed of military

II. Agreements

Comparison US - DAF boats (Incl 38 - MB)

3. Organized participation

2. Individual participation

1. Ample

C. NRE participation

B. Cessation fire in SAM

V. Presence in air attacks at some point

I. Convenants on US Concessions

NEGOTIATIONS PROGRESS SHEET

[A]

[Y]

# Negotiating Items in Turn

## I. Pause in Air Attack

- What do we want DRV to stop?

- What do we really want?

- What is a good starting position?

- Direct physical shipment of supplies

- Sanctuary for combatants

- Sanctuary for planning

- Direction

- Can we monitor by means better than unilateral intelligence?

- Inspectors - do they find intervention or certify non-intervention?

- Is latter ignorance of conviction?

- 2 costs of inspection

    - (a) prolongs negotiation

    - (b) intermediary brought in

    - (c) Intermediary has incentive to find nothing because to do so would involve commitment to a risky action.

- What is sanction for violation?

Should have leverage other than renewal war. If our only sanction is to renew bombing and if we are reluctant to do it we will have incentive to overlook violations.

**Consequences of Pause in Air Attacks:** If DRV stops infiltration (or says it does) in return for pause in air attacks, this must lead to recognition of NLF because non-intereference of DRV is then certified.

What contingency are we addressing: (1) Are VC autonomous; (2) Are DRV in control?

May be better to deal with VC only bilaterally to avoid legitimizing them. One could conceive agreement that two outside powers (US-DRV) stop intervention: US forces stop at present point of build-up. DRV withdraw units.

DRV withdraw units.

**Attention:** U2 forecast at present point of build-up.

One could conceive agreement that two outside powers (U2-DRV) atop interference may be better to deal with AC only piloted to avoid legitimizing them. DRV in control?

What contingency are we addressing? (1) Are AC autonomous? (2) Are NTE peсsuaе non-interference of DRV is then certified.

Consequences of Psmae in Air Attacks: If DRV atob infiltration (or says look violations.

renew bombing and if we are reluctant to do it we will have incentive to over-
should have leverage other than renewal war. It om only sanction is to
What is sanction for violation?

a. riaak action.

pecsnae to do so would involve commitment to

(c) Intermediary has incentive to find nothing pe-

(p) intermediary brought in

2 costs of inspection (s) prolongs negotiation

If better ignorance of conviction?
Inspectors - do they find intervention or certify non-intervention?
Can we monitor p> means better than military intelligence?

Direction

Sanctuary for planning

Sanctuary for consultants

Direct physical shipment of subpiles

What do we really want?

What do we want DRV to atob?

I. Psmae in Air Attacks

Negotiating items in Turn

[4]

[Y]

-2

Are we better off when it is officially US-VC war? How do we look
when we need 500th men to contain indigenous force? Whatever control of
DRV over VC, might VC have incentive to stop to save DRV?

## Other Pause Problems

Does that mean no overflights for reconnaissance?

More likely tacit than formal outcomes (because DRV cannot admit (a) that it is largely in control; (b) that it stops supporting compatriots in South).

Whether tacit or formal such an agreement is likely to be non-inspectable. Formally accept US presence in SVN simply for end of air attacks. Once stopped hard to resume.

**Tacit agreements** - Are there any conditions in which we would stop bombing without formal agreement? What other tacit outcomes are possible?

**Tacit means** - DRV must do something specific and we may be forced to explain under what conditions we would resume.

Three ways of stopping:

(1) Give DRV chance to reciprocate.

(2) Assert military situation in S. has improved so that bombing is not needed.

(3) Say infiltration has stopped

(Not needed because war is going well or because no supplies are arriving.)

Stick to secret negotiations. Open negotiations force public support by USSR of DRV.

USSR of DRA.

Stick to secret negotiations. Open negotiations force public ambport by
arriving.)

(3) Say infiltration has stopped
not needed.

(2) As a result of military situation in 2. has improved so that pumping is
not needed.

(1) Give DRA chance to reciprocate.

Three ways of stopping:

explain under what conditions we would resume.
Tactit means - DRA must do something specific and we may be forced to
pumping without formal agreement. What other tactit outcomes are possible?
Tactit agreements - Are there any conditions in which we would stop
Once added hard to resume.

spare. Formally accept US presence in SAM simply for end of air attacks.

Whether tactit or formal and an agreement is likely to be non-inpect-
month).

(a) that it is largely in control; (b) that it at least supports competitors in
More likely tactit than formal outcomes (because DRA cannot admit
Does that mean no overlights for reconnaissance?

Other Problems

DRA over AC' might AC have incentive to stop to save DRA?
when we need 200th men to contain indigena force? Whatever control of
Are we better off when it is officially US-AC war? How do we look

-3

[A]

-3

[N]

## II. <u>Cease-Fire in SVN</u>

Should be tied to pause in bombing if DRV control is assumed.

**Schelling:** We should get negotiations growing out of technical battlefield issues rather than formal forum. Negotiate what? Battlefield arrangements.
Develop this mode of negotiations.

How can cease-fire become anything other than partition?

What is permitted and what is prohibited in a cease-fire?

**Schelling:** frontiers are always accidental.

Cease-fire is more functional than geographic.

Advantage of a cease-fire

**Cease-fire:** Mixed territory or discrete territories

**Functional cease-fire. Issues:** Can government tax collectors come in?
Is resistance <u>prima facie</u> evidence of VC activity?

What happens if any dissident group refuses to play the game?

If you clean up checkerboard--by giving up part of area to VC--you may be left with recognized 5th column.

Local voting control by VC

Taxes

Respite of a year or two is this what SVN needs or fears?

If cease-fire confirms what you can hold anyway, what do you gain?

(1) withdrawal of troops

(2) no casualties

Dynamics show you have never recovered anything you lost, then whole situation looks bad. Enclaves - dangerous.

situation looks bad. Encounters - dangeroma.

Dynamics show you have never recovered skyping you loaf, then whole

(2) no casualties

(1) withdrawal of troops

It cesae-tire continue what you can hold anyway, what do you do?

Reabite of a year or two is this what SAM needs or fears?

Taxes

Local accounting control by AC

be left with recognised bit column.

If you clean up checkerboard--by dividing up part of area to AC--you may

What happens if any combatant group returns to play the game?

Is resistance prima facie evidence of AC activity?

Functional cesae-tire. Is this: Can government tax collectors come in?

Cesae-tire: Mixed territory or discrete territories

Advantage of a cesae-tire

Cesae-tire is more functional than geographic.

Scheeling: frontiers are always accidental.

What is permitted and what is prohibited in a cesae-tire?

How can cesae-tire become anything other than partition?

Is there rather than formal forum. Negotiate what? Battletield arrangements.

Scheeling: We should get negotiations going out of technical battlefield
Should be tied to base in pumping it DRA control is assumed.

II. Cess-Ere in SAM

-3

[A]

-4

[Y]

Is it feasible to control our territory?

Under what circumstances do you know you have control of strip?

If you have unopposed control over a period of time, can you then control
it against opposition?

Is there anything we can do about their surrender to know that you are
getting anything that they couldn't start again?

Disadvantage of Enclave: (1) Still stuck with SVN

Advantage: (1) Would still be there with impressive US forces.

Negotiating Forums

Best forum: Schelling: As much VC on other side as we can manage
because (1) they may be in charge and (2) reduces their dignity to treat them
as dissident terrorists than as expeditionary force of Communist bloc.

May negotiate with variety of regional leaders for amnesty, etc.

May prefer to talk to VC if victory is imminent because (1) formal
international conference engages Sino-Soviet bloc in SVN affairs, (2) forces
DRV to acknowledge defeat.

DRV to acknowledge defeat.

international conference endorsesino-Bolservoc in SAU states, (2) forces
May brester to talk to AC if victory is imminent because (1) formal
May negotiate with variety of regional leaders for ammend, etc.
sa disident terrorists than sa expedientary force of Communist bloc.

**Beat forump: Schelling:** As much AC on other side as we can manage

Negotiating Forums

Disadvantage of Encase: (1) Still stuck with SAU
getting anything that they couldn't start again?

Is there anything we can do apart their ammender to know that you are
it against opposition?

If you have mobbosed control over a period of time, can you then control
Under what circumstances do you know you have control of strip?

[x]

-4

[Y]

RANDOM NOTES:

Even if DVR is negotiating partner, why not threaten them that price goes up if they delay?

Can DVR make VC quit? If not, what can they do to affect outcome? If not, what is purpose of bombing? Will VC quit to spare DRV damage?

Can direction be moved to Hainan? Laos?

Can we bomb radio transmitters?

Why do we not squeeze North Vietnam with negotiating pressures and indicate that the price goes up the longer the war lasts.

What can we make DRV fear?

Who should negotiate?

Lindberg baby good case of too many cooks can destroy negotiations

Political process: History indicates that unrest usually starts in cities, especially in underdeveloped countries. Cities make opposition. Cities plus countryside make revolution. Conclusion: (a) very hard to placate city population of rootless intellectuals and rising middle class;

(b) Partition which leaves SVN with urban population would leave it with most unstable group.