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Premios Internacionales:

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EL NORTE

## Prevé Kissinger evolución del sistema político nacional

# ‘Debe tomar México dirección pluralista’

Foto: James Nudles

### Henry Kissinger en su oficina.

ques comerciales, estos tres países estarian tratando de operar en una base puramente nacional, lo que los pondría en desventaja competitiva.

A Carlos Salinas de Gortari lo considera uno de los presidentes más importantes en la historia moderna de México y un líder que dirige una de las mejores administraciones del mundo occidental.

### Ex-Secretario de Estado de EU pronostica futuro económico importante para el País

Por JACQUELINE LERMA

EL NORTE / Enviada

NUEVA YORK.- El sistema político mexicano debe modificarse en una dirección más pluralista, señaló el ex Secretario de Estado

de Estados Unidos, Henry Kissinger, quien pronosticó un futuro industrial importante para el País.

En una entrevista exclusiva concedida a El Norte, el estadista indicó que, como todo sistema político, el mexicano, al que definió como un sistema mixto, tendrá que evolucionar.

"Pero lo hará por razones mexicanas, no por razones estadounidenses", aclaró, "que el Gobierno, pero también su gente, decidan qué clase de administración desean tener".

En la entrevista, realizada en su oficina de Park Avenue, el ex-Secretario de Estado de la administración de Richard Nixon se muestra abierto y relajado.

Habla del presente y futuro de México, su confianza en el triunfo de George Bush en las elecciones presidenciales de noviembre, el destino incierto de Cuba y hasta sus recuerdos de Monterrey.

Indicó que el PRI ha demostrado ser mejor que el Partido Comunista, pues mientras éste se dissolvió, el tricolor sobrevive.

"Supongo que satisface las necesidades mexicanas más que el Partido Comunista satisfizo las necesidades de los rusos", expresó.

La política en México es más complicada que en cualquier otro país, advirtió, por sus diferencias económicas entre el norte y el sur del País.

"La parte norte de México

-Chihuahua, Nuevo León— siempre la he comparado con Estados Unidos", dijo. "La parte sur es más como Guatemala".

A Monterrey lo calificó como "tremendamente dinámico" y dijo tener buenos amigos en la Ciudad.

El ex-funcionario dijo visualizar a México en el siglo XXI muy parecido a países como Taiwán, Corea y Singapur.

Será un importante país industrial y un factor de peso en la economía internacional, agregó.

Kissinger, uno de los principales promotores del tratado trilateral de libre comercio, que propone aglutinar los mercados de México, Estados Unidos y Canadá, opinó que el acuerdo será ratificado

### Entrevista exclusiva

* Primera de dos partes ..... 6A

do hasta 1993.

"Yo francamente creo que las negociaciones se han retrasado demasiado y la votación está casi completamente del lado de Estados Unidos.

"Creo que será firmado a principios del verano y ratificado en la próxima primavera", indicó.

Significará que, mientras el mundo se está organizando en blo-

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KISSINGER INTERVIEW WITH EL NORTE

Reporter: Thank you for receiving us Dr. Kissinger.

Kissinger: Now, you're going to send one of these to Los Angeles
Times:

Reporter: Uh-huh. You're going to have your tape recorder there.

Congratulations for your recent birthday.

Kissinger: Thank you.

Reporter: How was the reception?

Kissinger: Very nice.

Reporter: OK Mr. Kissinger. Well do you know El Norte?

A: Yes.

Q: OK well like I told you.

A: I don't read Spanish but I know the paper.

Q: I know that you travel very frequently to Mexico and ? OK Mr. Kissinger like we're very interested and our newspaper has been supporting a lot ? agreement and especially that's why I'm here. Can I ask you how do you visualize Mexico in the 21st Century and what changes does the Mexican political system has to go through in order to accomplish its goals Mr. Kissinger?

A: I think Mexico in the 21st century will be very similar to
countries like Taiwan, Korea, Singapore. It will be like one of the
little tigers of Asia. It will be significant industrial country.
And three things factor in international economics, and having a
larger population than the countries I mentioned, it will play an
even more significant role. As for its internal politics, I believe
that the United States should not prescribe to other countries what
kind of domestic politics they should have. I expect for its own
reason I think Mexico will move in a more pluralistic direction
because when you have a modern industrial state, you will have many
more ? in the country than you have in a largely agricultural
state. And therefore I think that the Mexican political system will
be modified in a more pluralistic direction but it will do so for
Mexican reasons, not for North American reasons.

Q. Mexican government has to decide what kind of administration
it has?

A. And the Mexican people. It is not for North Americans to
prescribe it.

Q. What changes do you think we have to do in order to
accomplish its goals?

A. I really feel it is not appropriate for a North American to
tell Mexico what to do except that I believe it will move in a more
pluralistic direction. But how to do that, what that means is up to
Mexico to decide.

Q. Dr. Kissinger from your point of view, what does a North American ?? means to Mexico and what does it mean to the U.S.?

A. I think the world is being organized into regional trading
blocs. Europe is organizing itself. Asia is organizing itself, and
therefore it makes sense that North America and in time the Western
Hemisphere organize itself into a free trade area. As far as Mexico
is concerned, there is a global shortage of capital and the most
available capital is private. And therefore ? part of a larger
market, Mexico will have a much better opportunity to attract

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investment than it would if it were confined only to its own. As far as the United States is concerned, it also creates a larger market and together with Mexico and Canada, gains greater leverage in trade negotiations with other regions in the section.

Q. We have seen that there's a lot of controversy in the Congress to sign first the (?) and now the final NAFTA. What would happen to the economies of U.S., Mexico and Canada if the NAFTA is not signed.

A. If the NAFTA is not signed it will be above all a political misfortune because it means that the United States, Mexico and Canada would have decided in a world that its organizing itself regionally to try to operate on a purely nationalistic basis. And I believe they would put themselves in a huge competitive disadvantage in such a world. Secondly, the North American Free Trade Agreement is a historic change in U.S., Latin American relations. It is moving clearly to partnership and cooperation from a position of ambiguity, hardly cooperative, hardly a (?). And it would therefore be a historical misfortune than I believe (?) the country.

Q. When do you expect the passing?

A. Well you know I frankly think that the negotiations have been too long delayed and the vote is almost entirely on the U.S. side, the larger on the U.S. side. I think it will be signed sometime in the early summer and will be ratified sometime next spring.

Q. Before November?

A. No.

Q. Next year?

A. Next year.

Q. Dr. Kissinger because you know that in Mexico each person that arrives to the administration tries to make new changes and to erase what the other president did. Do you think that if the NAFTA is signed it will force Mexico to a continuity of economic policy?

A. Well what you say has not been true in the last two presidents, between De la Madrid and Salinas. There actually has been great continuity. And I believe that if that policy is continued into another administration that this isolation in Mexican policy will diminish. I believe that Mexico will continue on the free trade tract unless there's a huge economic global recession.

Q. Mr. Kissinger let's talk something about here from the states. WE've seen in recent days how the situation has put in a little complicate for Bush while Perot has been gaining popularity. Where is the election headed to here in the states?

A. This is a very strange election. A few months ago nobody took Perot seriously. Now they may take him too seriously. In the end, I think President Bush will win, and I will certainly support him. That will not be decisive but I want him to win.

Q. Your vote is going to favor Mr. Bush?

A. I personally will and I will campaign for him. And I hope he will win. It will be tougher than was thought.

Q. What kind of administration does the U.S. need for its next term?

A. Well the United States is now in the new world. The Cold War phase is over. The reliance on military security is less. Economics

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is more important. So for all of these reasons the approach of foreign policy hasn't changed. Then the Cold War world was a two power world, now there are many powers that's emerging: Japan, Europe, even Russia, China, U.S. and other countries. So the United States has to develop a different approach than the one to which we've been used. So we need a president who has experience in foreign policy and who doesn't need too much education, and this is why I'm supporting Bush.

Q. And for Latin America Dr. Kissinger, what does Latin America need most: Clinton, Perot or Bush?

A. Well I'm not the best person to ask because I think Bush. I think that the enterprise initiative will intersperse with America's initiative. It's the most creative thing that Bush has done, and one of the most creative things in American foreign policy. And I criticize Bush for not giving it more publicity.

Q. To the initiatives of the Americas?

A. The enterprise.

Q. What is your vision Dr. Kissinger of U.S. society for the next century? All the riots in Los Angeles; what is going to turn up in U.S society?

A. America is undergoing a great change. There is very large immigration in the United States, most of it non-European, much of it Hispanic. Which brings about a cultural modification of the ? of the dominant Anglo Saxon tradition in America. Then the urban problem is becoming very complicated. Third, the North American educational system is in need of revision. And I think we need some national standards so that the level of education is raised because there's a danger that all we do in the inner cities is to teach literacy but not really educate people. So America will have a big challenge. On the other hand, it's a country of tremendous energy and tremendous conviction. But in the past, it has overcome its problems, and I believe it can do so again.

Q. We were talking about the enterprise. Do you consider the enterprise for the Americas has been working or it has failed?

A. I think it is working slowly; maybe a little too slowly for my taste, but I think it is working. And I think it will be seen in retrospect as a historic contribution.

Q. When will we see it working fine?

A. Oh I think by the end of another Bush term I would expect that Mexico will be part of ?? enterprise system; Chile and Venezuela and Argentina.

Q: You have said that those three countries also can join ...

A. And by the end of that term Brazil will have solved its economic problems.

Q. Mr. Kissinger foreign policy, what about Cuba? What do you expect about Cuba?

A. I expect that ... Castro is a fascinating figure. I respect his courage. On the other hand, I think he belongs to a time that is finished. And so I believe his system will be replaced either while in this period or more likely after he disappears either because he dies or there's a revolution.

Q. How long do you expect him to ? power?

A. Well my impression is that he may have learned from Eastern

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Europe but he may think he has learned from Eastern Europe that if you begin making concessions in a communist system, it collapses. And he may decided that he would rather collapse on defeat than on his knees and then it's a question of efficiency of his police.

Q. Well that can be one more year, two more years?

A. I would think two or three more years.

Q. What about Mexico, it's position? Do you think Mexico should let Cuba? alone in order to avoid its? with its relations to U.S.? What do you advise Mexico to do? Mexico and Cuba like have been a little bit (?).

A. You know Mexico is a country that will soon have 100 million population and they're big boys, they can conduct their own foreign policy. And that North America has big boys, we can conduct our own. I do not see much to be gained at this point by making too many concessions to Castro. On the other hand, I would say this is a matter for Mexico to decide.

Q. Now that the Soviet Union has ceased being the main concern of the U.S. like the boogeyman or whatever, the eye spot has been turning to Japan. Is now this ??? the new danger of the U.S?

A. I think Japan is an economic competitor of the United States. And in that sense a problem but it's a competition we have to defeat economically. It's not a military or security problem.

Q. Is not the boogeyman a rival economically.

A. It becomes a boogeyman for some people but fundamentally it's a question we have to deal with ourselves.

Q. I've been reading in your book "American Foreign Policy". I read that you predicted the collapse of the ? back in the '70s. Now that it has happened, what does this mean to the world's political balance?

A. It means that the world needs to establish a new equilibrium because the future area from the Polish area of Vladivastok in the Middle East has broken up into 15 states; Russia is the largest of these states but then there's Ukraine, there's ?, there's ? and we have to develop some idea of what the relationship is between these various countries. It ought to mean that the United States has to pay more attention to economics and relatively less proportionate interest to security. And it makes it possible for that Western Hemisphere initiative to attract more attention than it would otherwise.

Q: Then more to economic issues than to ...

A. Economic and political issues than purely security issues.

Q. Was the U.S. ready to face the end of the Cold War?

A. It came very suddenly and I don't know anybody who expected it.

Q. It just came suddenly.

A. Well the problem is that the United States has overlooked its foreign policy as a primarily moral issue. And with the end of the Cold War there's no more of a challenge. There is a political and economic challenge and it requires rethinking of American approaches. When it was communist you could say good against evil. When you del with Mexico, Europe, Japan, it isn't a question of good against evil, it's a question of balance and interest.

Q. Dr., now that we have witnessed the collapse of the communist

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system in Eastern Europe, why hasn't this passed into our party ruling in Mexico since 1929?

A. Why hasn't it what?

Q. Why hasn't it happened the collapse of our party ruling in Mexico since 1929.

A. I suppose because it meets Mexican needs better than the Communist Party met the needs of the Russian people.

Q. Then it's better?

A. Well I think the (?) is better than the Communist Party.

Q. I'm asking you because some (?) and other ...

A. Who?

Q: (?) the foreign president from Costa Rica and other ? like yourself. He has said that we live in a one party dictatorship. What do you think about it?

A. Frankly, I want to stay out of Mexican politics. But I think it's a much more complicated situation. I don't think Mexico is a dictatorship.

Q. What do you call it then?

A. It's a mixed system.

Q. Do you think it work being like that?

A. I think it will evolve as every political system does.

Q. What's your opinion about President Salinas. I know that you have been supporting him in his administration. What do you think about him?

A. I think he is one of the most important presidents in modern Mexican history. And he runs one of the best administrations in the Western world.

Q. Do you consider yourself a Mexico friend, Mr. Kissinger? I know that you have been talking about Mexico ...

A. Yes, I see myself a very deep friend of Mexico. I visit there every year for several weeks.

Q. You have a home in Acapulco?

A. No. But I visit there regularly and I have many Mexican friends.

Q. Like a tourist or for business and everything you go there?

A. Well I do relatively little business there but I follow Mexican politics, and several of your ministers are personal friends of mine and so are several of your presidents.

Q. What states do you like better from Mexico?

A. What state?

Q. Uh-huh.

A. What country in the world do I like better than Mexico?

Q. No. what states of Mexico do you like better?

A. Well I like the area around Acapulco. Of course I don't know what the name of the state is. What is the state where ? is of Puerto Vallarta.

Q: Puerto Vallarta it's ... Well I forgot.

A. Well whatever it is ... I have a friend who has a house; it's not in Puerto Vallarta I've actually not been in Puerto Vallarta but I like the area.

Q. Dr., Last month former German chancellor Helmut ? he said that the problems of the fall of communism will be resolved themselves by the year 2005. What do you think about that

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statement? Or what's your own opinion?

A. I think that's probably right.

Q: It's right.

A. That the problems of the post communist world will take what 15 years to solve; 2005. Yes, I agree with him.

Q. Dr. Kissinger I have read a transcription of the program "60 Minutes" that they made some criticisms about your work like advising some countries, and that you take advantage of your fame and your power. What do you think? Would you comment about that.

A. Disgraceful. They ought to be ashamed of themselves.

Q. Have you sent them a letter or ...

A. I have sent plenty of letters.

Q. How do you feel now in the United States with your work. I know that you're advising all the countries ...

A. Well I don't really advise countries. I don't take money from Mexico. I don't take money from governments. When leaders ask my opinion, I'm happy to give it to them.

Q. And Mexico, what advice would you give them at this moment?

A. I think Mexico is doing very well. I'm not giving Mexico much advice. I think they're doing very well.

Q. Has President Salinas asked you for advice?

A. No. I occasionally see President Salinas. He was kind enough to spend time with me, and he sometimes asks me about the situation in the world and in the United States. He has not asked me what he should do in Mexico.

Q. But you see we're going up?.

A. I think you're doing extremely well.

Q. We'll just see how everything works with the Free Trade Agreement. ?? has said it's like a panacea or a win-win situation. Do you agree with him?

A. Yeah. Free Trade Agreement is a win-win situation.

Kissinger: Where do you live in Mexico City?

Reporter: In Monterey. Have you been there?

Kissinger: Yes I've been in Monterey. I had a wonderful time.

Reporter: Last year?

Kissinger: Two years ago.

Reporter: What do you think about Monterey?

Kissinger: Well it's terrific. You should list Monterey in the other parts I like. But it's different. I mean the other regions I mentioned were because of scenic beauty. Monterey is tremendously dynamic.

Reporter: Yeah, what's about it is its economic groups. Do you know some businessman there?

Kissinger: Yes.

Reporter: Who do you know?

Kissinger: What is that big cement company?

Reporter: (?) You know the head of that group?

Kissinger: Yes. I think it's tremendously dynamic.

Reporter: The north part of Mexico, Chihuahua, ?

Kissinger: Well the north part of Mexico is more like the United States. The south part of Mexico is more like Guatemala. And therefore politics in Mexico are more complicated than in other countries because the economic difference between the north and the

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south is so great.

Reporter: You have visited a lot of Monterey?

Kissinger: Yes.

Reporter: Is there something else about Mexico?

Kissinger: No.

Reporter: Dr., how many hours do you work daily? I know that you
are a very busy man.

Kissinger: I work all the time; about 15 hours.

Reporter: After speaking with you and knowing that you're a
great politician, a thinker, a writer, what else can a man like you
ask in this life?

Kissinger: I'm very content. I don't have any huge desires that
are not fulfilled.

Reporter: You think you have done everything in life now?

Kissinger: Luckily I am active and so I continue to be active.

Reporter: (Inaudible)

Kissinger: That is not for me to judge.

Reporter: ??? the former prisons.

Kissinger: Not that I can judge.

END TAPE