Draft Statement

Edward Teller

May 31, 1957

# RADIOACTIVE FALLOUT AND THE TESTING OF WEAPONS

## Introduction

Conflicting statements on the danger from fallout and the proposal of stopping further tests have been made in the last months. The impression is created that our knowledge of the effects of fallout are deficient and that there exists substantial disagreements concerning facts. Actually the disagreement is violent, but it relates to interpretation of facts and to judgment of values. It is, therefore, important to separate the points on which agreement exists, from the statements which have led to a clash of opinions.

## Accepted Facts

In a living tissue radiation causes damage by ionizing and disrupting the molecules. The detailed mechanism causing the damage is unknown. The damage depends on the total energy deposited in the tissue. This in turn determines the number of molecules which get ionized or disrupted. It also depends on the precise distribution of the ionization processes in the body. It depends to a lesser extent on the question of how closely the ionized and disrupted molecules are located relative to each other.* Apart from these factors the effect does not depend on the kind of radiation which has caused the ionization.

Since the results of the ionization and disruption are independent of

*The difference of the effects of alpha-, beta- and gamma-rays is due to the spacing of the disrupted molecules.

due to the absence of the disordered molecules.

since the results of the ionization and disintegration are independent of the ionization.

**Factors the effect does not depend on the kind of radiation** which has caused and disordered molecules are located relative to each other. Abart from these body. It depends to a lesser extent on the question of how closely the ionized also depends on the precise distribution of the ionization processes in the r.m.m. determines the number of molecules which get ionized or disintegrated. It The damage depends on the total energy deposited in the tissue. This in the molecules. The detailed mechanism causing the damage is unknown.

**Accepted for publication.**

ment exists, from the statements which have led to a clear of opinions.

of atoms. It is, therefore, important to separate the points on which agree-
ment is violent, but it relates to interpretation of facts and to judgment
there exists substantial disagreements concerning facts. Actually the dis-
created that our knowledge of the effects of fallout are deficient and that
stopping further tests have been made in the last months. The impression is

## Introduction

May 31, 1953

Edward Teller
Draft Statement

[Lc]

Draft Statement

Edward Teller

May 31, 1957

- 2 -

the agency which causes the ionization, the effects of fallout can be com-
pared in a meaningful way with the effects of more or less intensive arti-
ficial irradiations on the one hand and with the effects of natural radiations
on the other hand.

Intensive artificial irradiation produces cancer and related diseases like leukemia. If one uses a twofold intensity of irradiation twice as many cancer cases are produced. There are some grounds for the view that this law of simple proportionality holds down to the smallest intensity of radiation, such as is caused by the worldwide fallout activity deposited in our bones. In this way one can calculate that for each million tons of fission-type explosion the lives of approximately 1,000 people will be shortened. The figure may be somewhat higher amounting to a few thousand people per megaton. It may be also lower. It may be that radiation at less than a certain intensity does not cause cancer. In any case the number of expected additional cancer cases due to radiation is less than what could be verified by statistical methods since the additional cases constitute a very small percentage of cancer incidents.

Local fallout has most probably caused the death of one Japanese
fisherman. Several other Japanese fishermen and more than one hundred
Marshall-islanders have been exposed to radiation strong enough to decrease
their life expectancy. All this happened in connection with the shot fired on
March 1, 1954. We have no knowledge that anyone else has been exposed to