INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES

International and Social Studies Division

400 Army-Navy Drive, Arlington, Virginia 22202 • Telephone (703) 558-1000

18 November 1968

Mr. Bryce Harlow
3744 30th Road North
Arlington, Virginia 22207

Dear Mr. Harlow:

On 30 September I sent you a short letter (copy attached) in which I noted that Mr. Neil McElroy had suggested that I write you concerning the study I have directed here on the conduct of national security affairs, and that is now finished. The letter caught you, of course, in the heat of the campaign, but now that the election is over and you and the rest of the President-designate's team are pointing toward January 20th and thereafter, you may want to talk over what it is we have done, since our target audience from the very beginning of our effort has been the new President and his principal advisers. Dr. Glenn Olds was referred to us independently by McGeorge Bundy, and we had a very useful talk with him here on 17 October.

I can be reached on 558-1489 at the office and 521-4060 at home, where my address is 1111 Army-Navy Drive, Apt. #C912, Arlington, Virginia 22202.

With best wishes,

LJL/sm
Enc.

30 September 1968

Dear Mr. Harlow:

I am writing to you at the suggestion of Mr. Neil McElroy, whom I had the pleasure of interviewing last week as part of my duties as project leader on a study of the U.S. national security process that has been under way here in the International and Social Studies Division since the first of this year.

The study is addressing the evolution and current status of the process, with emphasis on the practical perspectives of the President himself and of his top advisers in that field. It is largely financed by the Ford Foundation, and will be completed in time to be made available to the next Administration before it takes office. It is not stressing the substance of policy, but rather the insights that experience provides into the advantages and disadvantages of different arrangements for formulating policy and carrying it out.

We have relied heavily on extensive personal interviews with, to date, some 100 officials--past and present, Republicans and Democrats, civilian and military--who have been active at high and middle levels in national security matters, foreign and military. Among those whom we have interviewed from the Eisenhower period, besides Mr. McElroy, have been Gordon Gray, Robert Cutler (by letter because of his illness), Andy Goodpaster, Douglas Dillon, Robert Bowie, Thomas Gates, Arthur Radford, and Richard Bissell.

When I told Mr. McElroy that I thought a desirable balance at this time suggested acquainting someone highly placed in Mr. Richard Nixon's campaign with the who, what, when, where, how, and so-what of our effort, he immediately advanced your name, having also in mind, of course, your White House assignments under President Eisenhower. I am therefore writing to ask if you might find a free half-hour in the next week or two during which I could tell you briefly about our study and

LAURENCE J. LEGERE

24 December 1968

DEC 2 7 1968

Honorable Henry A. Kissinger
Nixon Headquarters
Hotel Pierre
Room 1232
Fifth Avenue & E. 61 Street
New York, New York 10021

Dear Henry:

Please forgive my adding to the bombardment of
unsolicited big-thinks to which I know well-wishers
are subjecting you.

Late last July you asked if I could be ready by
mid-September with some tentative conclusions from the
IDA study on the conduct of national security policy.
I said yes, and, in large part because of our conver-
sation, began delivering myself of a "synthesis" paper--
even though most of my chapter writers were just begin-
ning early drafts.

I finished my 30-page paper on about September 1st,
when all chapters but the one on State were still in early
drafts. It furnished the basis for the current synthesis
Chapter I, but the latter turned out with somewhat less
in the way of hard conclusions--for very good reasons.

Enclosed are a few pages on which I have extracted
the conclusions from that early paper of mine on which
you and I might have met in mid-September. It has no
status here, and so is simply a personal tender of con-
ceivable interest to you sometime.

Best wishes on everything you are doing,

[LC]

## 1. From Introduction

The *fourth proposition* proceeds in part from the preceding three, and was raised or seconded by more persons interviewed than any other element of general counsel focused on the fact of *any* Administration's newness. It is this: at the outset of his Administration the new President should preside personally over a series of systematic reviews covering key areas in the national security field. Whether he uses the NSC, a modified NSC, or some other group of his choosing would not seem terribly important. What is important is that he constitute the group so as best to achieve the following purposes:

(a) *education* of all concerned by common exposure and discussion in depth of where the nation stands in its relations to the rest of the world,

(b) *forcing* of his principal advisers to begin relating to their Departments and Agencies on the major problems they will have to address in preparing for the scheduled sessions,

(c) *smoking-out* of possible policies and programs of the previous Administration that the new Administration may wish to challenge and which, unless so smoked-out and laid open to challenge, may continue through sheer inertia,

(d) *transmittal* of such Presidential guidance as the new President may wish to undertake for the benefit of all (although these early sessions would not be primarily intended as decision-making forums), and

(e) *"calibration"* by the President of his principal advisers in action--who understates and who overstates, who tends to reflect what preconceptions that the President should be prepared to discount, who is getting on top of his job and who is not, etc.

## 2. *Trend of Developments in the 1970's*

a. The period after the ending of the Vietnam War could well witness the beginning of a less activist U.S. foreign policy and the beginning of decreasing defense budgets.

b. Such sharp departures from the policy environment of the recent past, dominated as it has been by Vietnam, would initially enhance the importance of both unambiguous Presidential guidance and of selectivity in arrying, for Presidential decision, national security priorities across a broad range of options.

c. These emphases would in turn suggest some movement away from *ad hoc* informality and toward more ordered mobilizing of national security procedures in the future.

d. If the President's decisions in the period ahead set a higher priority on domestic matters at some expense to foreign affairs, he may wish to provide for disengaging himself from intensive personal involvement in the operational details of guiding national security activity.

3. Center in White House or State?

a. The more the President wants to concentrate on domestic problems, the more he may want to try devising ways of protecting himself against over-involvement in details of national security affairs.

b. The determination of broad national security policies--the policy planning element of the over-all process--must in any event be sensitively responsive to the President's personal guidance.

c. The details of national security affairs that require time, manpower, and expertness to run lie in the general field of coordinating actions pursuant to broad national security policies already agreed; this coordinating function need not involve the President personally, provided the person who does run it is known to enjoy a very special relationship with him.

d. What therefore seems appropriate is a mixed approach that would center policy planning in the White House and operational coordination in the Department of State.

e. This approach would call for the Administration's best man in the Department of State and, in the White House, a Special Assistant for National Security Affairs of lesser prominence who would direct a staff that included an element charged with the coordination of interdepartmental policy planning at the level of the President.

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4. <u>Institutional Procedures or Informal Arrangements?</u>

a. A President who wants to dominate the bureaucracy without denying himself the benefit of its professional advice will seek both institutional and informal ways of accomplishing that objective by forcing the truly important choices, adequately staffed, to his personal attention.

b. The past eight years have witnessed a concentration on <u>ad hoc</u>, non-institutional approaches to the conduct of national security policy; this suggests that the gaps requiring repair lie mainly in the institutional area.

c. The placing of somewhat more emphasis on institutional procedures should conform to the following:

(1) they should tend to channel policy matters to the President and non-crisis operational matters elsewhere.

(2) they should not impede the President's ability, through his personal staff, to find out what is going on and to influence it before it picks up a momentum of its own.

5. <u>Comprehensive or Ad Hoc Policy Guidance</u>

a. To help compensate for the loose practices of the past few years, a somewhat more systematic means of transmitting Presidential guidance is desirable. This will tend to relieve the President of excessive involvement in later operational detail and will, by clarifying the President's intentions, tend to impart coherence to the complex business of interdepartmental coordination at lower levels.

b. Unambiguously Presidential guidance will be especially important during the early months of the new Administration. A top-level interagency forum such as the NSC can play a major role during this time.

c. After the new Administration's "shakedown" period, the President may wish to concentrate his systematic guidance on policy areas in which he wants to change direction or which are forced up to him because he has so provided, formally or informally.

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6. <u>Implementation and Monitoring</u>

a. Implementation of policies through coordination of operations requires more firming up; routine monitoring of those operations has become an over-preoccupation of the White House NSC staff.

b. Coordination of operations is best accomplished by an inter-departmental body. It should center around the existing SIG/IRG structure, which is ready-made for the function of senior-level co-ordination in addition to whatever planning responsibilities it may assume below White House level. However:

(1) It needs an outstanding and enlarged staff, probably interdepartmental but independent of departmental control.

(2) In a State-centered general system, its chairman with power of decision subject to appeal to the President must be an *alter ego* of the Secretary of State, through whom in turn its reports and recommendations to the President must move. In a strongly White House-centered system, its chairman should be a senior Presidential assistant.

(3) Its membership should in any event include representation from the White House.

c. To avoid relying on the goat to guard the cabbage, routine monitoring of operations should be the special concern of a SIG staff that, like the Secretary, identifies with the perspectives of the President rather than with the narrower interests of State's regional bureaus.

d. For reaching down and occasionally checking outside the system, on operations of particular interest to the President, there is no substitute for the national security staffers in the White House.

7. <u>White House NSC Staff</u>

Note: The Moose chapter was being significantly revised when this first draft summary/synthesis chapter was written.

8. <u>State</u>

a. Centering the top level of policy planning in the White House is in effect recommended in Section 1 (c) above. Strengthening policy planning in State would therefore call for leadership by its Policy Planning Council at the working level of policy planning--perhaps in the Interagency Planning Group.

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b. SIG/IRG should be charged with national-level operational coordination and monitoring, with stress on the decision-making authority of its executive chairman, the Under Secretary of State, and on the involvement of the Secretary himself as the channel between SIG and the President.

c. The SIG and the IRGs should assemble highly qualified inter-departmental staffs that will act as instruments of the Secretary/Under Secretary and Assistant Secretaries of State, respectively.

d. State should continue to explore and promote the idea of foreign affairs resource allocation operation--a foreign affairs PPBS (Planning-Programming-Budget System), perhaps located at the White House level of policy planning and including participation by the Bureau of the Budget.

e. The top echelons of the Department level should be re-ordered somewhat to provide rational channels and to take account of the new stress within the Department on allocation of resources and coordination of programs.

9. Defense

a. Many allegations concerning derogation of military judgment in the Pentagon arise from the fact that the Secretary of Defense from 1961 to 1968 was the first to really run the Department under his charge.

b. The burdens thus spared the President constituted a major characteristic of the national security process during those years, one that a new President will want to examine carefully before acting to derogate it.

c. However, the new President and his designated Secretary of Defense will probably want to consider non-fundamental changes in Pentagon organization and procedures that would integrate the professional military contribution more effectively into such important decision processes as the defense budget cycle.

d. As an exception to the principle that only at his peril does a subordinate bypass his superior, the President will want to make sure that he can, and when appropriate does, receive "unfiltered" military advice, probably through the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff as representative of the JCS itself.

LIST OF INTERVIEWEES FOR PROJECT NSP
(As of October 16, 1968)

**Note:** The first listed position is that held by the individual when he was interviewed in 1968. Then there are listed either (a) the positions of primary interest to Project NSP (if different from the current position) or (b) other previous positions or activities of interest.

Acheson, Dean
Lawyer, Covington and Burling, Washington
Secretary of State, 1949-53

Anthony, Robert
Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller)
1965-68

Ausland, John
Director of Combined Policy, Office of Deputy
Under Secretary of State for Political
Affairs

Chairman of the Subcommittee on Leadership and
Organization in Foreign Affairs of the
Career Principles Committee of the Foreign
Service Association, 1967-68

Barnes, Tracy
Special Assistant to the President, Yale
University

Assistant to Director of Central Intelligence
1951-64

Bator, Francis
Professor of Political Economy and Director of
Studies, Institute of Politics, John F.
Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

Deputy Special Assistant to the President for
National Security Affairs, 1965-67

Bell, David
Vice President of Ford Foundation

Several positions under President Truman, including
Administrative Assistant to the President,
1951-53; Director, Bureau of the Budget, 1961-62;
Administrator of AID, 1962-66

Bissell, Richard M. Jr.
Director of Marketing and Economic Planning, United
Aircraft Corp., Hartford, Conn.

Special Assistant to the Director, CIA, 1954-59;
Deputy Director of Plans, CIA, 1959-62

Bohen, Fred
Bureau of the Budget staff

ADMINISTRATION CONFIDENTIAL

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Bowie, Robert R.
Director, Center for International Affairs,
Harvard University

Director of Policy Planning Staff, Department of
State, 1953-55; Assistant Secretary of State
for Policy Planning, 1955-57; on leave as
Counselor of Department of State, 1966-67

Brown, George Lt. Gen. USAF
Assistant to the Chairman, JCS, 1966-68

Brown, Sidney
Agency for International Development

Special Assistant to Director Schultze of BOB,
1965-67

Bundy, McGeorge
President of Ford Foundation

Special Assistant to the President for National
Security Affairs, 1961-66

Burke, Arleigh Adm.,
USN (Ret.)
Director, Center for Strategic Studies, Georgetown
University

Chief of Naval Operations, 1955-61

Capron, William M.
Senior Staff, Economic Studies Division, Brookings
Institution

Senior Staff, Council of Economic Advisors,
1962-64; Assistant Director, Bureau of the
Budget, 1964-66

Clark, J.W.
Bureau of the Budget, International Operations Div.

Clifton, Chester V.
Maj. Gen. USA (Ret.)
Clifton Associates, Washington, D.C.
White House Defense Liaison Officer, 1961-65

Coffey, Joseph I.
Professor of Public & International Affairs,
Graduate School of Public and International
Affairs, University of Pittsburgh

Assistant to Karl Harr, OCB Staff, 1958-60;
author of *The Presidential Staff* and other works

Cooke, David S.
Director of the Directorate of Organizational and
Management Planning in the Office of the
Assistant Secretary of Defense (Administration)

Davis, Vincent
Professor of International Relations, Graduate
School of International Studies, University of
Denver

Author of *The Admirals' Lobby, The Politics of
Innovation: Patterns in Navy Cases, Postwar
Defense Policy and the US Navy*, and other works.

ARMY DEPARTMENT - CONFIDENTIAL

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Delaney, George P. Special Assistant to the Secretary of State and Coordinator of International Labor Affairs

Deming, Frederick I. Under Secretary of the Treasury for Monetary Affairs

Dillon, C. Douglas President, U.S. and International Securities Corporation, New York
Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs, 1958-59; Under Secretary of State, 1959-60; Secretary of the Treasury, 1961-65

Elliot, Ted Country Director for Iran, Department of State

Elsey, George Special Assistant to Secretary of Defense Clifford

Enthoven, Alain Assistant Secretary of Defense (Systems Analysis)

Fitt, Alfred Assistant Secretary of Defense (Manpower)

Fosdick, Dorothy Staff Director, Subcommittee on National Security and International Operations, Committee on Government Operations, US Senate (Jackson Subcommittee)

Fried, Edward White House NSC Staff (Economic and European Matters)

Gates, Thomas S. Chairman, Morgan Guaranty Trust Company
Secretary of the Navy, 1957-59; Deputy Secretary of Defense, 1959-60; Secretary of Defense 1960-61

Gerhardt, John Lt. Gen. USAF (Ret.) Assistant to the President of Lear Siegler, Inc.
JCS Representative on NSC Planning Board in late Eisenhower Administration; former Commanding General of NORAD

Gilpatric, Roswell L. Partner in Cravath, Swaine and Moore, New York
Under Secretary of the Air Force, 1951-53; Deputy Secretary of Defense, 1961-64

Ginsburgh, Robert Brig. Gen. USAF Member of the White House NSC Staff; Office of the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff

Glass, Henry Assistant to the Secretary of Defense (since 1953)

Goldberger, Al RAND Corp.
Former Historian at USAF

ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL

Ld

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Goodpaster, Andrew
Lt. Gen. USA

Commandant, National War College, 1967-68
White House Defense Liaison Officer and Staff
Secretary of the White House Staff, 1954-61;
Assistant to the Chairman, JCS, 1962-66

Gray, Gordon

Chairman of the Board, Piedmont Publishing Company,
and Member, President's Foreign Intelligence
Advisory Board
Secretary of the Army, 1949-50; Special Assistant
to the President, 1950; Assistant Secretary of
Defense (International Security Affairs),
1955-57; Director, Office of Defense Mobilization,
1957-58; Special Assistant to the President for
National Security Affairs, 1958-61

Greenleaf, Abbott, Col.
USAF

Military Assistant to Deputy Secretary of Defense

Hamilton, Edward

Member of White House NSC Staff, 1962 to September
1968

Hammond, Paul Y.

RAND Corp.
Author of *Organizing for Defense* and other works

Harr, Karl G., Jr.

President, Aerospace Industries Association of
America, Washington
Special Assistant to Under Secretary of State for
Administration, 1950-54; Deputy Assistant
Secretary of Defense for NSC Affairs and
Defense Alternate on NSC Planning Board, 1956-57;
Special Assistant to President, Vice Chairman
OCB, 1958-61

Hartman, Arthur

Staff Director, Senior Interdepartmental Group
(Department of State)

Helms, Richard

Hoffman, Fred S.

Horwitz, Solis

Hughes, Thomas L.

Director, Bureau of Intelligence and Research,
Department of State

Huizenga, John

Vice Chairman, Board of National Estimates, CIA

Huntington, Samuel

Professor of Government, Harvard University
Author of *The Common Defense*, *The Soldier and the
State*, and other works

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[L]

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Ioanes, Raymond A. Administrator, Foreign Agriculture Service, Department of Agriculture--

Jackson, Wayne Member of the Board of National Estimates, CIA
Former CIA representative on OCB, 1953-57

Johnson, Nels Vice-Adm. Director, J-5 (Plans and Policy), Office of Joint Chiefs of Staff (until mid-1968; currently Director, Joint Staff).

Katzenbach, Nicholas Under Secretary of State

Kaysen, Carl Director, Institute for Advanced Studies, Princeton, New Jersey
Deputy Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, 1961-63

Kenny, Spurgeon Office of Science and Technology, the White House

Kissinger, Henry A. Professor of Government, Harvard University
Author of *Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy, The Necessity for Choice*, and other works

Lay, James S. Jr. Executive Secretary, United States Intelligence Board
Assistant Executive Secretary, National Security Council, 1947-50; Executive Secretary, NSC, 1950-61; Deputy Assistant to Director of Central Intelligence, 1961-64

Lincoln, George Col. USA Professor and Department Head, Department of Social Sciences, U.S. Military Academy
Deputy to Under Secretary of the Army, 1948-49; Special Assistant to Secretary of Defense, 1951-53; Member of Rockefeller and Gaither Committees, 1957; staff of President's Committee to study the Military Assistance Program, 1958; Special Advisor to the Administrator, AID, 1964-65.

Marks, Leonard Director, United States Information Agency

May, Ernest Professor of American Diplomatic History, Harvard University
Author of *The Ultimate Decision* and other works

McCafferty, Arthur Director, White House Situation Room

McElroy, Neil Chairman of the Board, Proctor and Gamble Co., Cincinnati
Secretary of Defense, 1958-59

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Moyers, Bill D.
Publisher of *Newsday*, Long Island
Special Assistant to the President, 1963-67;
White House Press Secretary, 1965-67

Neustadt, Richard E.
Professor of Government, Associate Dean, John
Fitzgerald Kennedy School of Government, and
Director of Institute of Politics, Harvard
University
Special Consultant to President-elect Kennedy,
1960-61; Special Consultant to Jackson Sub-
committee, 1959-61 and 1962 to Present

Nitze, Paul H.
Deputy Secretary of Defense
Director of Policy Planning Staff, Department of
State, 1950-53; Assistant Secretary of Defense
(International Security Affairs), 1961-63;
Secretary of the Navy, 1963-67

Orwat, Norman M. Maj. Gen.
Deputy Director of J-5, Office of the Joint Chiefs
of Staff
USAF

Owen, Henry D.
Chairman, Policy Planning Council, Department of
State

Petty, John R.
Assistant Secretary of the Treasury (International
Affairs)

Poats, Rutherford M.
Deputy Administrator, Agency for International
Development

Pollack, Herman
Director, Office of International Scientific and
Technological Affairs, Department of State

Price, Don K.
Dean, John F. Kennedy School of Government,
Harvard University
Assistant to Herbert Hoover on Study of the US
Presidency under the auspices of the Commission
on Organization of the Executive Branch of the
Government, 1947-48; Staff Director, Committee
on Department of Defense Organization, 1953;
member of the President's Advisory Committee on
Government Organization, 1959-61; author of
*The Secretary of State, The Scientific Estate*,
and other works

Radford, Arthur Adm.
Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, 1953-57
USN (Ret.)

Read, Benjamin
Executive Secretary, Department of State

Reilly, John
Office of Vice President Humphrey
*

* Note: Early last summer on late last springs, Gen. Taylor wrote Mr. Nixon requesting an interview for us (in due capacity as former V. P.), Doughty Chapin signed a salute.

ADMINISTRATIVE CONFIDENTIAL

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Rostow, Walt W.
Special Assistant to the President
Deputy Special Assistant to the President for
National Security Affairs, 1961; Counselor and
Chairman, Policy Planning Council, Department
of State, 1961-66

Ruser, Claus
Staff Member, Senior Interdepartmental Group,
Department of State

Sapin, Burton M.
Director, International Relations and Area Studies
Center, University of Minnesota

Contributor to Brookings Institution study of
The Formulation and Administration of
US Foreign Policy, 1959-60; Author of The
Making of United States Foreign Policy, and
other works

Schelling, Thomas C.
Professor of Economics, Harvard University
Author of Arms and Influence, The Strategy of
Conflict, and other works

Schultze, Charles L.
Professor of Economics, University of Maryland
Staff Member, President's Council of Economic
Advisors, 1952-58; Assistant Director, US Bureau
of the Budget, 1962-65; Director, Bureau of the
Budget, 1965-67

Schwartz, Harry
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (Inter-
national Security Affairs); Staff Director,
SIG, 1966-67

Scoville, Herbert
Assistant Director, Arms Control and Disarmament
Agency

Smith, Abbott
Chairman of the Board of National Estimates, CIA

Smith, Bromley K.
Executive Secretary, NSC

Smith, R. J.
Deputy Director for Intelligence, CIA

Snyder, Richard C.
Professor of Administration and Political Science,
University of California at Irvine
Author of American Foreign Policy: Formulation
Principles and Programs, Foreign Policy Decision-
Making, and other works

ADMINISTRATIVELY CONFIDENTIAL.

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Solomon, Anthony M. Assistant Secretary of State for Economic Affairs

Spivy, Burton E. Jr. Gen. USA (Ret.) Director of Joint Staff, JCS

Taylor, Maxwell D. Gen. USA (Ret.) President of IDA, Chairman of President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, and Special Advisor to President Johnson

Chief of Staff, US Army, 1955-59; President's Military Representative, 1961-62; Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, 1962-64; Ambassador to South Vietnam, 1964-65

Tufts, Robert Professor of Economics, Oberlin College, Oberlin, Ohio, and Chief Consultant to the Jackson Subcommittee

Vannoy, Frank Rear-Admiral USN Deputy J-5, OJCS

Waks, Norman Assistant Director for Engineering Management, DDR&E, DOD

Warnke, Paul Assistant Secretary of Defense (International Security Affairs)

Wheeler, Earle G. Gen. USA Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff

Wilkins, Fraser Inspector General of Foreign Service

Wriggins, Howard Professor of Government and Director, Institute of South Asian Studies, Columbia University

Member, Policy Planning Council, State Department, 1961-65; Senior Staff Member, NSC, 1966-67

Yost, Charles W. Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, New York City

Many positions in long Foreign Service Career, including US Deputy Representative to the United Nations, 1961-66

ADMINISTRATIVE CONFIDENTIAL