Wednesday, June 7, 1972

MIDWEEK - Eagle

WAYNE LUBENOW

It should be crystal clear to everyone by now that there is only one man who should be the next President of the United States - a man so obviously head and shoulders above the rest of the hacks that he should be the unanimous choice of both the Republican and the Democrats.

My fellow Americans, I give you our next President, Henry A. Kissinger.

Who else has the flair, the color, the elan, the girls? I tell you, folks, Dear Henry has given class to an extremely dull, drab, administration. As for the current crop of Democratic candidates, he is a Gulliver among the Lilliputians.

Show me a guy who dates actresses, starlets, members of the jet set, lady journalists and anyone else wearing skirts and I'll show you a high-type guy who is premier presidential timbre.

If any of you had any doubts about Henry's capabilities, they must have been quickly dispelled by his latest conquest. I am referring to Henry showing up at midnight at a press party in Tehran and ending up with a raven-haired belly-dancer in his lap.

By George, that was outstanding, just beautiful, a real coup. That did more for American morale than all the humdrum agreements Nixon and the Russians signed.

President? Nah, I am ready to nominate Henry for king. He is my kind of guy.

Americans, you will agree, are deadly sick of war. And what person could fulfill the slogan, "Make love, not war," better than Henry? Who, indeed, knows more about love and less about war?

If there is one thing this country needs, folks, it is a swinging bachelor in the White House. Someone to reacquaint us with the finer things in life.

Imagine, if you will, a White House dinner with six actresses, a lady writer, assorted female jet setters and a belly dancer acting as First Ladies.

Man, nobody could possibly talk war or economics or poverty in an atmosphere like that.

An era of love and peace (that's with an "ea," Mr. Typesetter) would descend over our land and the whole world would be the better for it.

Some of Henry's girls would undoubtedly write books about their unrequited love for him and make millions from the books. This, of course, would take care of the poverty problem - at least for the women of the world. (Perhaps not for ALL the women of the world, but at the pace Henry is setting he should get around to most of them by the end of a 4-year term.)

Perhaps we would have to increase the President's expense allowance because Henry doesn't go out with the kind of girls you can take to MacDonald's for a burger. But that would be more than offset by firing a whole gaggle of Secret Service men because Henry wouldn't need 'em. I mean, all the world loves a lover and nobody is going to take a shot at a blithe spirit like Henry.

Besides, Henry is unusually adept at disappearing and then surfacing at far-off places and the Secret Service wouldn't be able to keep track of him anyway.

Yes sir, Henry Kissinger would be the greatest good-will President this nation ever had. He would pop off to Japan and the people there would love him when he has his back scrubbed by a geisha girl in a community bath. He would endear himself to the Russian people by making love to a female track star or the prima ballerina in the Bolshoi Ballet. He would captivate the Cubans by showing up in a cane field with a comely peasant lass. He has already taken Frand and Iran by storm with the trysts with the Parisienne writer and the belly-dancer.

It is high time, I say, that affairs of state cease being the serious, somber things that previous lackluster presidents have made them. With Henry at the helm, an affair of state would take on quite a different meaning.

Henry's inauguration will be a gas. The Army and Navy and Marine Bands are out. Performing will be the Golddiggers, the Rockettes and Phil Spitalny's All-Girl Orchestra.

It would be up to Henry, of course, to select his own cabinet, but the front-runner for secretary of state has to be Zsa Zsa Gabor. For secretary of defense, Shirley Chisholm.

As his top presidential advisor, the one who must be constantly at his side, I figure that Racquel Welch has the inside track. No doubt about who his press secretary will be: Danielle Hunebelle.

The oath of office will have to be changed slightly to include a clause that Henry remain a bachelor while he is in the White House. He will undoubtedly do so anyway because he has an extremely high I.Q. - but his nocturnal activities could create some nasty international incidents if he were married.

Not only is Henry right for the job, but he has proven that he can turn a phrase that captures the imagination of the world. It was Gen. Douglas MacArthur who thrilled people everywhere with his immortal words, "I shall return."

Well, Henry topped him with ringing prose that will live forever. As he was leaving the party in Tehran he whispered to the belly-dancer, "I'll be back."

Yes sir, Henry Kissinger is our man, all right. I think we could even dispense with a formal election and name Henry President by acclamation because there's no doubt whatsoever that he'll win. After all, he's already got the belly-dancer vote.

For vice president? Never a doubt: Frank Sinatra.

003A80T

Page 3

Wednesday, June 7, 1972

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June 21
Call 282-2443

MIDWEEK eagle
VOLUME 2 - NUMBER 13

publisher DONOVAN C. WITHAM

advertising GEORGE ENGELKING

composition SHIRLEY SMITH

contributing writers KAY CANN
WAYNE LUBENOW
ROGER FISCHER

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The Washington Post

AN INDEPENDENT NEWSPAPER

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 14, 1972

For the Record ...

The Importance of Private
Efforts to Improve Life

From the baccalaureate address of Pres-
ident Kingman Brewster Jr. of Yale,
given June 11:

I urge you not to be too blinded by the
glamor or the horror of televised govern-
ment from the summit. I would remind you
of the public significance of persistent pri-
vate efforts to improve the human condition.
Even such accomplishments as strategic
arms limitation did not spring full blown
from the summit.

When most of you were about ten years
old Cyrus Eaton brought American and So-
viet scientists together in the "Pugwash"
conference—named after the neutral ground
in a Canadian hunting-fishing lodge where
the first get-together was arranged. Success-
ive Pugwashes helped to span the cold war
chasm which divided statesmen. They strip-
ped the rhetoric which had enshrouded the
scientific realities of modern weaponry.
They made it easy and natural for influen-
tial scientists and scientific advisors in both
the Soviet Union and the United States to
share their ultimate concern; and to discuss
ways to prevent their technological ad-
vances from destroying the world.

At the level of sophisticated public opinion
the Federation of Atomic Scientists, the Or-
ganization for a SANE nuclear policy, the
Council for a Liveable World—all at one
time or another pilloried as “left wing” or
“communist front” organizations—patiently
presented to larger and larger private and
official audiences the inexorable logic of
negotiated stalemate, once an overkill cap-
acity had been achieved by both sides.

This was all the work of private citizens,
brought together by private hopes and pri-
vate fears for the public interest. Their in-
sistence on nuclear sanity was not a momen-
tary spark in the ashes of post Hiroshima
conscience; nor was it dimmed or slowed or
halted by the deafness of official ears. Per-
sistence outlasted hostility to the nuclear
test ban idea, and President Kennedy was
able to vindicate its hope.

Now, at the hands of a Republican Presi-
dent, insistence on nuclear supremacy has
given way to a negotiated parity. None of
this would have been possible without the
homework and dogged public mission of a
relatively small group of citizens . . .

MONDAY, SEPT. 11, 1972

SARGE ON THIN ICE

In a story in the *N.Y. Times* last month, Sen. Eagleton's replacement, R. Sargent Shriver, was quoted as criticizing a recent Henry Kissinger mission to Saigon. The *Times* quoted McGovern's 10th choice for Vice President as saying that he was happy that Kissinger had finally found his way to Saigon, but said he should have gone there years ago, "instead of to nightclubs in Paris and London."

In taking this cheap shot at the President's adviser on national security matters, Shriver has inadvertently heaved a rather large boulder through the picture window of his own glass house. The Sept. 26, 1971, edition of the *National Enquirer* carried a front page picture of Sargent Shriver snuggled up to the widow of Porfirio Rubirosa on a dance floor in, of all places, a Paris nightclub. "They danced and drank champagne till dawn," the paper reported.

Those who would like a copy of the *Enquirer* story about Shriver may obtain one for 30 cents by writing: Back Issues, *National Enquirer*, 600 South East Coast Ave., Lantana, Fla. 33462.

(continued from previous page)

paper quotes Eagleton as telling one audience that he himself is a "centrist" and on domestic policies "not as close" to McGovern as some might think. Eagleton also predicted that if McGovern is defeated, the Democrat Party "will move a bit more towards the center."

**Worth Reading:** Frank van der Linden's "Nixon's Quest for Peace," a close look at President Nixon's efforts to achieve a generation of peace. Van der Linden is Washington Bureau Chief for the *Nashville Banner* and writes a three-times-a-week column for United Feature Syndicate. The book is being published today and is available from: Robert B. Luce, Inc., 2000 N Street, NW, Washington, D.C. The price is $6.95.

SPEAKING:

Today—Atty. Gen. Kleindienst, U.S. Marshals Conf., Crystal City, Va.; Vice President Agnew, Bricklayers, Masons and Plasterers, Union, Las Vegas; Lab. Sec. Hodgson, NAB, San Diego; OMB Dir. Weinberger, Producers Advisory Comm., Finance Execs Inst., Wash., D.C.; RNC Chmn. Dole, Vt. Chamber of Commerce, Mt. Snow; Tues.—Ag. Sec. Butz, Gen. Fed. of Women's Clubs, Wash., D.C.; Hodgson, Bricklayers, Masons and Plasterers, Las Vegas; Trans. Sec. Volpe, Trans. Conf., Philadelphia; Int. Sec. Morton, Producers Council, Wash., D.C. & GOP of Dela., Wilmington; Communications Dir. Klein, Nev. State Broadcasters, Las Vegas; Wed.—Butz, Farm bar-b-q, Burlington, Ia.; Comm. Sec. Peterson, Economic Advisory Bd., Wash., D.C.; Klein, PR seminar, Arlington, Va.; Volpe, Fulton Co. GOP, Atlanta; Thurs.—Peterson and Hodgson, Construction Industry, Wash., D.C.; Weinberger, Rotary Club, Oakland & John Hancock Life Insurance dinner, Los Angeles; Dole, GOP dinner, Knoxville; HUD Sec. Romney, Israel Land Reclamation dinner, Seattle; Fri.—CEA Chmn. Stein, Va. Manufacturers, Williamsburg; Peterson, Chamber of Commerce, Baltimore; Counsellor Rumsfeld, Exec. Club of Chicago; Volpe, Long Island Garagemen's Assn., N.Y.; Sat.—GOP Campaign Kickoff, nationwide; Butz, Amer. Milk Producers, Kansas City, Mo.

Monday. SEPT. 11, 1972

republican national committee

Senator Bob Dole—Chairman

310 First Street, SE, Washington, D.C. 20003

When changing address, please send us both the old and the new. Permission to use material herein is granted with or without credit to the Committee.

NEWSPAPER

Second class postage
paid at
Washington, D.C.

MONDAY, SEPT. 11, 1972

PRESIDENT RAPS DEMOCRAT
CONGRESS FOR INACTION ON
ENVIRONMENTAL BILLS

President Nixon has asked the Democrat-controlled
Congress to get moving on his environmental legis-
lation.

Declaring that he has proposed the "most compre-
hensive legislative program in the Nation's history"
to deal with the problems of the environment, the
President said much of it "now languishes in Congress
mired in inaction and jurisdictional squabbles."

"Every day of inaction sees more of our land de-
spoiled, our water further polluted, noise levels
mounting, and harmful substances spreading through-
out the environment," the President noted.

Not a Partisan Issue

"We cannot afford to allow our national heritage to become a hostage to partisanship," he declared. "Restoring and protecting the environment is not a Democratic or Republican issue. All Americans recognize the importance of this endeavor." The President asserted that the House and Senate "are simply not keeping pace with the concern of citizens throughout the Nation for positive action."

The President made his remarks in San Francisco en
route to Washington state to inspect the proposed
Golden Gate national recreation area, a 24,000-acre
project along San Francisco Bay and the Pacific
Ocean.

In three Environmental Messages in 1970, 1971 and
1972, 31 different environmental legislative proposals
have been proposed by the President and transmitted
to the Congress. Only six of these have been enacted
and only one—the Clean Air Act Amendments of
1970—was a major proposal. The major bills pending
before the Democrat-controlled Congress deal with:
water quality, pesticides, noise, ocean dumping, toxic
substances, land use, strip and underground mining,
power plant siting, predator control, endangered
species, toxic waste disposal and sediment control,
land and water conservation, environment financing,
marine pollution and oil pollution.

McGOVERN VIOLATIONS

McGovern Campaign committees designed to enable
Mr. Hefner to escape payment of the Federal tax
levied on political contributions in excess of $3,000
under IRS regulations.

"It appears that the bulk of these paper committees had no purpose other than to act as conduits for Mr. Hefner's contributions and the contributions of one or two other large contributors. Sums involved were

immediately transfered out directly to the McGovern
Central Control Fund in California or to the Mc-
Govern for President—D.C. Committee. Several of
these conduit committees appear not to have re-
ported receiving or expending any other monies."

Concluded Dole in his letter: "In view of the violations which I cited in my previous letter and the additional points that I raise now, I feel more strongly than ever that the McGovern campaign organization is engaged in illegal and unethical campaign finance practices. These should be halted forthwith, and those involved in such activities, punished to the fullest extent of the law."

POLITICAL POTPOURRI

Campaigning recently in Michigan, Sargent Shriver
got all balled up on why Eagleton had left the ticket.
First, he said it was because of Eagleton's history of
mental depression, later he said it was not in the na-
tional interest to have someone on the ticket with
such a "disability," then finally in a modification and
retraction Shriver repudiated the other two state-
ments and said he agreed with the McGovern reason
for dumping the Missouri Democrat. Commented a
reporter who had witnessed Shriver's meanderings:
"Who does Sarge think he is flip-flopping around like
that, George McGovern?"...The *St. Louis Post-Dis-
patch* reports that Eagleton campaigning in Missouri
is carefully separating himself from some of McGov-
ern's more far-out positions on some issues. The

TIME THE WEEKLY NEWSMACAZINE

Meet

The New York Times Magazine

TIME, JULY 24, 1972

Arriv-
ing on the podium after Eagleton's
speech, Kennedy drew the convention's
first display of unmitigated warmth, a
roaring standing ovation. Then, in a
powerful speech written by Richard
Goodwin, Kennedy delivered an evan-
gelistic plea for unity.

THE NEW YORK TIMES MAGAZINE / JULY 23, 1972

With the possible exception
of Senator Edward M. Ken-
edy's extraordinary appear-
ance and speech (written by
Milton Gwirtzman), the rest
of the convention was an anti-
climax.

7

KISSINGER, HENRY A.

KISSINGER, HENRY A.

Newsday

William Attwood, President and Publisher

550 Stewart Avenue, Garden City, Long Island, New York 11530

Telephone (516) 741-1234

January 29, 1973

Dear Henry,

Here's a supplement we brought out on a subject you probably no longer want to think, let alone read, about. Strong pictures, though, and some wry 1953 reminiscences in my edit.

When and if the dust settles, I'd appreciate a chance to chat with you about a couple of non-journalistic matters.

Meanwhile, congratulations on so successfully carrying out what must have been an incredibly grueling assignment these past few months.

Dr. Henry A. Kissinger
The White House
Washington, D.C. 20500

RECEIVED

APR 30 1973

CENTRAL FILES

LOYOLA UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO

Lewis Towers * 820 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, Illinois 60611 * (312) 944-0800

May 14, 1973

Dr. Henry Kissinger
The White House
Washington, D.C.

Dear Dr. Kissinger:

Please find enclosed a copy of my article published in the May 12, 1973, issue of the *Chicago Tribune*, dealing with the effect of immigrant scholars on American foreign policy in general, and with your role in the Viet Nam peace negotiations in particular.

JR:lb

Enclosure

KISSINGER, HENRY A.

NEWSPAPERS

(2)

middle-east intelligence survey

FORTNIGHTLY REPORT
PUBLISHED BY
MIDDLE EAST
INFORMATION
MEDIA
LTD.

April 1973

Dear Reader,

The publishers of Middle East Intelligence Survey have undertaken the production of an authoritative publication with the aim of providing an independent and credible source of information on Middle East events, for readers with special interest in world affairs.

M.I.S. is prepared by independent Middle East specialists who have formed an editorial group for this purpose. Their expertise is the product of many years of direct contact with a wide range of prime sources throughout the region.

The editorial policy of M.I.S. is to report developments and trends as they appear. It will not give editorial opinions or engage in tendentious comment. It will not be the outlet for any special interest, pressure or political group. It will provide information, analysis, and background based on direct observation by the experts.*

M.I.S. will arrive in your mailbox every two weeks. We would like you to examine it for a few months, and decide on the basis of content whether you wish to become one of its regular subscribers. The distribution of this trial mailing is limited, as will be the subscription list. When M.I.S. becomes open for subscription, the rate will be $100 per year (for 26 issues), including postage anywhere in the world.

We believe you will find M.I.S. both interesting and useful, providing you with a valuable resource of first-hand information and background.

RECEIVED
JUL 5 1973

CENTRAL FILES

8, Mendele St., Tel Aviv, 63-579, Phone: 235518, Cables: Infomedia Tel Aviv

FORTNIGHTLY REPORT

JUNE 1, 1973 — Vol. I, No. 5

EGYPT

"THE CORRECTIVE REVOLUTION"

Egypt has just celebrated with special emphasis the anniversary of President Sādāt's 1971 victory over his political rivals, who had formerly been Nasser's closest aides. On May 14 and 15, 1971, Sādāt removed from the political scene, 'Alī Sabrī, Sha'rāwī Jum'a and Sāmī Sharaf, and their numerous supporters. The manner in which the occasion was marked in 1973 has revealed in clearer light some basic trends at work in Egyptian domestic policies.

* The events of May 1971 have been upgraded to a degree of importance comparable to Nasser's assumption of power in 1952. This is implicit in the terms used to describe those events. Up to now it has been called: "The Corrective Movement". This has now been upgraded to "The Corrective Revolution". The events of May 1971 are thus put on the same level as Nasser's takeover, which had customarily been marked as "Revolution Day".

* Nasser himself (rather than his lieutenants) has for the first time been criticized in an official statement: Deputy Premier and Minister of Information and Culture, 'Abd al-Qādir Hātīm, said that the "Corrective Revolution" had been neces-

sary in order to eliminate "the July (1952) Revolu-
tion's contemptuous attitude towards the people's
potentialities and the neglect and dictatorial poli-
cies which led to the (1967) defeat". Sādāt's "Cor-
rective Revolution" by contrast, had "consolidated
democracy", the rule of law, and "government by
means of the state's institutions" (implying that,
under Nasser, government had been by personal
prerogative).

* Cabinet ministers, particularly those who also hold high office in the Arab Socialist Union, went out into the provinces to explain, at a series of mass meetings, the significance of the "Corrective Revolu-
tion".

* Significantly, the anniversary was made the occasion for stepping up Sādāt's personality cult. All newspapers carried his photograph, some in full page size. Among the epithets now used with his name are: one of the architects of the July 1952 revolution; the wise leader; the struggling; the flexible politician; the first to understand the changing situation; the people's son; the true nationalist; the fatherly one.

The events of May 1971 were the first overt indication of the process of de-Nasserization. The 1973 anniversary had taken that process a step further. Sādāt is now attempting to bolster his position by:

a) claiming a decisive role in the coup of July 1952

33

Middle East Intelligence Survey
is a fortnightly report
published by

Middle East Information Media
8 Mendele St., Tel Aviv 63-579, Phone No. 235518
Cables: Infomedia Tel Aviv

Printed by Israel Press Ltd. Tel Aviv

(which requires a good deal of re-writing of history);

b) implying that the genuine revolution occurred in May 1971 rather than in July 1952;

c) changing his popular image from that of Nasser's faithful successor to that of the nation's real father figure.

Another major anniversary event was Sādāt's address to the People's Council (parliament) on May 14. (The session was closed, but excerpts from Sādāt's speech as well as his replies to some questions were published.) This provided the occasion for Sādāt to clarify his views on two central issues he had chosen to dwell upon in his recent speeches:

* The nature of Egyptian democracy and

* the meaning of "total confrontation".

Democracy, Sādāt stated, was circumscribed by "the requirements of the battle" which made inadmissible "splits in the nation" and "a preferred status for certain classes". In plain words, ideologies further to the right or to the left than the span of opinions recognized by Sādāt are forbidden. There would be, he went on, "clear rules" of public behaviour and "political manoeuvres" would not be allowed.

His words were underscored during the following few days by news that:

a) The trial of more than 100 Egyptians and foreigners on charges of currency smuggling would be resumed and that two former ministers were implicated, Hasan 'Abbās Zakī and 'Abdallah Marzabān (both had held economic portfolios);

b) 52 students arrested in the course of university unrest in the beginning of the year would now face a military court for activities "hostile to the socialist regime of Egypt".

Questioned on the meaning of the "total confrontation" with Israel, Sādāt replied that it meant more than "fighting along the Suez Canal" — it was a "long phase" of the struggle comparable to the war against the crusaders; it was a phase in which "liberation and building up the country" were being combined. The decision to go to war would be taken at the appropriate moment, at Egypt's own choosing. (The wish to avoid a repetition of the "year of decision" situation, which Sādāt found so hard to escape at the end of 1971, is clearly discernable in his choice of words.)

In the meantime, Sādāt went on to tell the People's Council that part of the "total confrontation" was for people to refrain from putting forward any demands for material betterment or "special benefits for special groups".

The lack of credibility within Egypt of Sādāt's warlike stance can be clearly discerned. For example, one of the journalists now known to reflect official views,

34

Mūsā Sabrī, writing in *al-Akhbār* on May 17, reassured his readers that the military preparations were genuine and "not meant for local purposes or [to impress] foreigners". News about the imminent resumption of hostilities were deliberately leaked by Egypt to a number of Lebanese newspapers to give the impression that her threats were being taken seriously abroad.

Yet, all the image building notwithstanding, Sādāt himself put the finger on his regime's basic trouble when he told the People's Council on May 14: "What we need is to rebuild our self-confidence".

## EGYPT AT THE UN

### AFTER THE SECURITY COUNCIL — THE ASSEMBLY

The UN Security Council is expected to start its discussion of the Middle East situation at Egypt's request in the first week of June.

Egypt has made considerable diplomatic efforts to prepare the ground for the meeting. Examples:

* Sādāt's Adviser Hāfiz Ismā'il has visited France (May 15–19) and Spain (May 19—21);

* Sādāt held talks in Cairo with Ethiopian Emperor Haile Selassie (May 11) and King Faysal of Saudi Arabia (May 12);

* Sādāt himself headed the Egyptian delegation to the OAU meeting at Addis Ababa (May 25);

* The Egyptian Foreign Minister visited Moscow (May 27—29) as the Soviet Union prepared to take over the rotating Security Council chairmanship in June.

At the same time, Egyptian media have raised the stakes for the forthcoming discussions:

* *Al-Gumhūriyya* wrote on May 23 that Egypt would not give way to Israel pressures for "peace, recognition or negotiations";

* A commentator of Radio Cairo's "Voice of the Arabs" studio stated on May 18 that the struggle against Israel would not end "as long as the Palestinian people is exiled from its homeland";

* In an interview with West Berlin's radio station

(in connection with Scheel's visit to Cairo), Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmad Hasan az-Zayyāt spoke of a state for "Palestine's Jewish and Arab inhabitants" echoing ideas propagated by the Fath and reiterating his previous statement of policy in Paris on February 9, 1971, where he came out explicitly in favour of establishing a Palestinian State instead of the State of Israel. Alternatively, he said, a return to the partition boundaries as laid down in 1947 might offer a solution.

In a similar vein, Presidential Adviser Hāfiz Ismā'il said in Paris that the present dispute was only the "military aspect" of a more profound conflict, namely, "the Palestinian problem".

These and similar statements are to serve notice, on the eve of the Security Council deliberations, that Egypt expects the Council to strengthen its own interpretation of Resolution 242 without obliging Egypt to consider the conflict as resolved. (This attitude, by no means a new one, may well prove counter-productive at the Security Council.)

At home and in other Arab countries, these arguments are aimed at making Egypt's "total confrontation" policies more credible. With regard to the Great Powers, they are meant to demonstrate that the present stalemate is pushing Egypt into extreme positions from which she would find it increasingly difficult to withdraw.

Egyptian media depict the forthcoming Council discussion as a "turning point" likely to determine whether there will be peace or war. Nevertheless, there are signs that, if Egypt does not receive full satisfaction at the Council, her next step may be to demand an extraordinary session of the General Assembly. In the Assembly, the Arabs are able to muster an impressive majority with even more ease than in the Council. There is the added advantage that US has no veto powers in the Assembly. In this context the visit to Cairo in April by the Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Stanislaw Trepczynski proves to be significant. The minister is also the current president of the UN General Assembly.

However, Egyptian efforts in New York seem to be overshadowed by the Watergate scandal on one hand and Brejnev's forthcoming visit on the other hand.

35

## LEBANON

### DEFUSED BUT STILL EXPLOSIVE

Conflicting statements by the Lebanese authorities and the fidāyeen about the terms of settlement worked out between them after the most recent fighting, have left a confused picture.

Both sides have been stressing that the "Cairo Agreement" of 1969 is still in force — but each is trying to impress on its supporters that it has emerged victorious from the crisis.

The Lebanese have leaked to the press details of a secret agreement reached on May 17. According to this, the government won considerable gains, such as the removal of fidā'i forces from all refugee camps near urban centres, and restriction of the fidā'i military presence at the Israeli border in the 'Arqūb area (also known as Fathland), near the northern tip of the Golan Heights.

The fidāyeen have denied that any such agreement exists. At the same time a confidential fidā'i publication claims that the Lebanese have agreed to release all arrested fidāyeen and return all arms confiscated by the army, and they have reconfirmed the right of the fidāyeen to continue military training.

Only the following can be stated with certainty:

* The crisis has been brought under control, at least temporarily;

* The Lebanese have improved their position in their dispute with the fidāyeen;

* The situation is still fluid with each party attempting to improve its position;

* The real problem that precipitated the internal conflict after the Israeli raid on the fidā'i headquarters — Beirut as jumping board to worldwide terror — seems unsolved yet.

Despite the conflicting claims, no detailed permanent agreement has been reached. The interim measures put into effect to date are an attempt to defuse the situation. For the time being, this limited objective has been achieved, that is, the armed clashes have ceased. But the fundamental differences between the

Lebanese government and the fidāyeen over who rules where and the basic question of sovereignty remain to be resolved.

The developments have directly affected the course of Lebanon's internal political situation. With the situation less acutely explosive, Premier Amīn al-Hāfiz has withdrawn his resignation and martial law has been lifted.

However, as long as the fidā'i problem remains unsolved, the imminent threat to Lebanon's internal stability, at all times precarious, remains unchanged.

## SYRIA

### ASAD'S NEW REGIME

On May 25, the first elections since 1961 were held in Syria for the new Syrian legislative assembly in line with the new permanent constitution approved by plebiscite on March 12, 1973. Contrary to the regime's apprehensions, the elections were uneventful — in fact, too uneventful — as less than the required 51% of the voters showed up. Under the circumstances, voting was extended to the next day until enough voters were marshalled. As expected the Ba'th Party and its ally, the Popular Front, won the majority of seats. Prominent among the elected legislators are the veteran Communist leader Khāled Bakdāsh and five of his Communist Party members.

The elections represent a further step in President Asad's policy of establishing his regime on firmer constitutional ground; while retaining actual power in the hands of his trusted military and civilian supporters, Asad seeks to obtain legitimacy by constructing a formal hierarchy of constitutional government. So far, the relative liberalization entailed by this policy had had diverse effects on the political situation in Syria. While during 1971 and 1972 this policy generally improved the public atmosphere in Syria, in February and April 1973, the failure of the regime to accord Islam a prominent place in the new proposed constitution led to serious clashes with conservative elements in Syria's major cities. The May 25 elections

36

were held against this background and heavy precautions were taken to ensure that the situation does not get out of hand.

Another cause of concern for the Ba'this is the restiveness of their so-called Nasserite partners (the Arab Socialist Union) in the "National Progressive Front". This Front was set up by Asad in order to manifest the co-operation with his regime of non-Ba'thi "progressive" elements. In addition to the Nasserites, the Communists and the Arab Socialists — Hawranis have co-operated with Asad's Ba'th in the framework of this Front. While tolerating the political activity of these previously banned parties Asad does not tend to share real power with them. Exploiting the approaching elections of May 25 Arab Socialist Union's two leaders resigned their posts in the government and in the Front respectively, and their movement decided — on April 30 — to boycott the ensuing elections.

Now that the elections are over, Asad will have to mend fences with these politicians if he wishes to maintain the image of wide progressive support behind his regime.

## JORDAN

### NEW GOVERNMENT IN AMMAN

The new government formed in Amman on May 26 reflects the growing influence of the young technocrats surrounding King Hussein. The new government's main tasks will be to reform the administration, to eradicate corruption and to supervise the execution of the three-year development plan.

The policy of the new government includes on the one hand the integration of Jordan in the "Arab national line", while on the other hand it stresses the need "to maintain order and internal security". In other words, there is no change in the King's attitude towards the fidāyeen and consequently no gesture towards Egypt — mainly concerning the re-establishment of the Eastern Front — to be expected in the near future.

The 38 years old Prime Minister Zayd al-Rifa'i, a Harvard and Oxford graduate, who also holds both the Foreign Affairs and Defence portfolios, represents the trend of internal reform and pro-western foreign policy. While he acted as Jordan ambassador in London, he was attacked and injured in December 1972 by Black September. Since then, he served as the King's personal political adviser. In this capacity he went on a secret and unfruitful mission to Cairo in an attempt to improve bi-lateral relations.

Only nine of the ministers of the outgoing Ahmad el-Lozi Cabinet keep their ministerial posts. As usual, the balance between West and East Bankers is strictly maintained. The newly created portfolio of "Occupied Territories Affairs" was given to Taher al-Masri, of the well-known West Bank Nablus family, who visited Israel lately. Masri may thus be responsible, inter-alia, for the distribution of commercial and travel licences, also of subsidies and grants to municipalities and individuals in the West Bank. Nevertheless, the real power concerning policy towards the West Bank remains in the King's own hands.

Other outstanding nominations include Ahmad el-Trawna, representing the young East Bank elite, as Minister of Interior, and General Mudar Badrān, ex M.I. Chief, now Minister of Education.

This promotion of young intellectuals, mainly from families loyal to the Hashemite Crown, is part of a wider trend. A similar process takes place now in the "National Union" Party, headed by the journalist Jum'a Hamad, and even in the army where an accelerated rotation of officers has already started.

## ISRAEL

### LABOUR PARTY OPENS ITS RANKS TO ARABS

Israel's leading Labour Party decided on May 24 that Israeli Arabs should be generally admitted as fully-fledged members. The issue had been debated for several years. Prior to the decision, only members of minorities who traditionally served in the Israeli De-

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fence Forces (mainly Druze and Circassians) as well as several dozen Arabs who were active in the Israeli trade unions, were accepted by the Party.

The objection to unrestricted admission of Arabs into the Labour Party was based on the premise that it would be unfair to expect Arabs to identify with the Party's Zionist platform. The new members, of course, would be expected to endorse this platform.

The supporters of the move succeeded in mobilizing a majority on the strength of three pragmatic considerations:

* Concern that extremist circles, notably the New Communist list, were filling the vacuum created by the lack of a mainstream political organization open to Arab citizens;

* Pressure exerted by Arab politicians affiliated with the Labour Party to accord them full membership;

* The position of Labour Party officers dealing with the Arab sector that the exclusion of Arabs was contrary to government policy calling for full integration of the Arabs into the Israeli society.

The Party's central committee will vote on the subject within a few months.

The decision may affect the Labour Party's preparation for the coming parliamentary election in Israel. In 1969, two Arab lists, affiliated with the Labour Party, participated in the elections. It now appears that only one such list will remain, while the Labour Party faction in the Knesseth will include at least one Arab, representing the expected 5 to 15 thousand new Arab Party members who will be admitted before and after the elections.

## IRAQ

### APPEAL TO EXILES TO RETURN

Since 1970, the Iraq's Ba'th policy to liquidate political rivals both inside and outside can best be illustrated by examples:

* ex-foreign minister Näser el-Hāni in Baghdad;

* ex-strongman, General Hardān al-Takrītī in Kuwait;

* attempt on ex-Prime Ministers General 'Āref Abd-el-Razzāq in Cairo and Col. Abd-el-Razzāq el-Nāif in London.

Recently, the policy has been reversed, and Iraq is attempting to win over the opposition abroad rather than eliminate it.

The change is part of a move to project the image of a regime enjoying broad popular support. This was exemplified in a statement by strong man Saddam Husayn al-Takrītī who said that the return of all Iraqi exiles now living in Egypt and other Arab or European countries would be welcome. He emphasized that the exiles "should abandon the thought that the revolutionary regime in Iraq would one day succumb". Rather, he said, they should "rally around the revolution and act for the implementation of its goals".

The statement was followed recently by a direct appeal to Iraqi emigrants. Interior Minister Sa'dün Ghaydān in an address to one such group visiting Baghdad stressed that the government stood ready to facilitate the return to the country of any emigrant who wished to regain his Iraqi nationality.

The new efforts are viewed against the following background:

* The regime now feels well established and more secure, and is in a position to demonstrate a more benign attitude towards its rivals.

* The Ba'thi leaders are aware that while their control of the army is solid, their popular base of support is dangerously narrow. By regaining what could be presented as an endorsement of the regime by well-known politicians of other convictions, the Iraqi Ba'th Party, as did previously the rival Ba'th regime in Syria, believes it can win the support of important segments of the public.

However, this and other attempts to mellow the rigid image of the present regime have failed thus far to produce the anticipated results. This is due primarily to lack of confidence in the sincerity of the regime.

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## IRAN

### VOICES OF OPPOSITION FROM IRAQ

With the establishment of diplomatic relations between Iran and East Germany, the last two clandestine Iranian Communist radio stations in operation in East Europe (Peike Iran and Sedaye Melli Iran) were transferred to Iraq.

Iraq has now become the centre for all anti-Iranian broadcasting. With the addition of the remaining propaganda organs of the Iranian Communist Party, the Tudeh anti-Iranian radio outlets in Iraq now number six:

1) Baghdad Radio (Persian, Kurdish, and Baluchi) which encourages armed uprisings, concentrates on political prisoners and on news about the "Organization of the Iranian Peoples' Fighters".

2) Radio Inqilabiyun Iran (Radio of Iranian Revolutionaries) which specializes in giving guerrilla warfare instructions and encourages subversion.

3) Sedaye Inqilabiyun Iran (Voice of Iranian Revolutionaries) which advocates armed uprisings, supports guerrillas in Dhofar and attacks Anglo-American Imperialists.

4) Sedaye Azadi Iran (Voice of Iranian Freedom) which claims to speak for Iranian religious circles opposed to the Iranian government.

5) Sedaye Melli Iran (National Voice of Iran) which claims to speak for a wide spectrum of opponents to the Iranian government, including ex-supporters of Musaddeq. It addresses itself mainly to students and also concentrates on labour unrest.

6) Peike Iran (Iranian Messenger) which covers Tudeh news, calls for a labour-peasant coalition and opposition to the Consortium oil agreement, purchase of arms from the West, etc.

During May there were reports that Iranian and Iraqi officials met under the mediation of the Russians, and that these contacts were not fruitful. However, the tone in the propaganda attacks on Iran became much

milder and there was speculation that Baghdad had heeded Soviet counselling calling for moderation.

## SAUDI ARABIA

### IN PARIS — MUCH POMP, FEW DEALS

The official visits of King Faysal to Egypt and France in May, although they appeared to be different in character, were closely linked.

The Cairo visit, which followed the visit of the Egyptian Minister of War to Saudi Arabia, was designed to improve his image as a major contributor to the Arab effort in the conflict with Israel. Indeed, this was the major issue raised in the Sādāt-Faysal talks, which concentrated on the following points:

* Saudi Arabia's possible contribution to the re-establishment of the "Eastern Front", dismantled in 1970.

* Saudi Arabia's willingness to use its oil resources to influence American foreign policy (however, Saudi Arabia abstained from the token stoppage of oil production on May 15, — the anniversary of the Declaration of the State of Israel);

* The possibility of financing Egyptian armament deals with France.

In France, the royal visit was marked by considerable pomp. However, concrete achievements were less spectacular. It became clear that the French balance of payments with Saudi Arabia is causing great concern to the French Government. Saudi imports from France trebled from 1968 to 1972 (F. 95 million to F. 260 million) but French imports from Saudi Arabia (mainly oil) increased by more than seven-fold (F. 337 million to F. 2,700 million, in the same period). In terms of the French-Saudi Arabian balance of payments, the French commercial deficit grew in the course of four years from F. 282 million in 1968 to about F. 2,440 million in 1972. French exports now provide about 5 per cent of Saudi Arabia's total annual imports, and are about one third of the West-German and two-thirds of the Italian volume.

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The French Government undoubtedly hoped to make up at least part of the deficit with an arms deal. However, early in May, before King Faysal's visit, the British Minister of Defence announced the conclusion of a massive arms agreement with Saudi Arabia, valued at £250 million. Moreover, towards the end of May, American officials disclosed that negotiations were under way for the purchase of 19 destroyers and frigates for the Saudi navy as well as other war material. The American deal with Saudi Arabia could eventually entail purchases up to $1 billion.

King Faysal took special care during his visit not to commit himself either in the economic or the military field.

With regard to commercial relations — they are to be examined by Saudi Arabian experts in the future. With regard to armaments — the Saudis have expressed interest in the new Super Mirage F-1.

The failure of the French Government to secure any immediate gains from the royal visit, and the lack of a joint communiqué suggest that King Faysal's real aim in his visit was not only to explore the possibility of yet stronger French support for the Arab cause in the Arab-Israeli conflict, and to set tempting financial bait to ward this end — but mainly to force Washington to speed up its decision concerning arms to Riyād.

## KUWAIT

### FURTHER AMERICAN INVOLVEMENT IN THE PERSIAN GULF

The American-Kuwaiti arms deal is another significant indication of the growing American involvement in the Persian Gulf area given greater urgency by alarms raised over an imminent "energy crisis".

The deal will enhance the defence capability of Kuwait — a meaningful development in the light of the Kuwaiti-Iraqi crisis of March-April. At present, Kuwait's military strength is rather limited (9,500 men, 14 Lightning and six Hunter planes). The new deal to supply 32 Crusader planes, 160 M-60 tanks and

an anti-aircraft Hawk missile system, will give an important boost to Kuwait's defence capability. The deal also includes the construction by US experts of a military infra-structure such as bases, airports, and training facilities.

The wide publicity given by American sources to the agreement and its timing just before the Nixon-Brezhnev summit meeting is another American signal that it regards stability in the Persian Gulf area as one of its vital interests. Previous indications of this policy have been the widening of American diplomatic representation in the area at the end of 1971, and the beginning of 1972; the agreement at the same time on the lease of the al-Jufayr base in Bahrayn for the American Middle Eastern Command; Nixon's visit to Iran in May 1972; the visit of the American Secretary of State to Kuwait and Bahrayn in July 1972; the recent appointment of former CIA Chief Richard Helms as ambassador to Iran; the large American-Irani armaments deal (which in the last 18 months has entailed about $2.5 billion); and President Nixon's authorization in February 1973 of arms deals with other Persian Gulf states.

The actions taken by the Nixon administration since the end of 1971, when Great Britain completed its withdrawal from the Persian Gulf area, contradict American statements that the US did not intend to take up the British role.

Officials in Washington have now stated that the American-Kuwaiti arms deal is only the first in a series of further such agreements with other Persian Gulf states. The pattern of American policy in the area is now clear: of the three major countries in the area — Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia — the US is concentrating on strengthening the latter two. In addition, it is aiming at lessening the dependability of the smaller pro-Western Gulf countries on Saudi and Iranian military support in case of a local crisis.

However, the American arms deals with Arab Peninsula states had an indirect effect on the Middle East conflict. Following reports on eventual transfer of military aircraft from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to Egypt, Israel considers these arms deals as having a direct effect on the regional balance of power.

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