Washington Whispers.®

# The Slate the GOP Really Fears... Henry Kissinger's Last Chance? ... A Timely Lift for Birch Bayh

The White House is sure it has persuaded most key Democrats in Congress to back away from voting a tax cut this year. The plan now is for Carter and party leaders to lay out in September—well before the elections—a tax-cut package that would be formally introduced in Congress in January.

Among top Republicans in Congress, the prevailing view is that a Carter-Mondale ticket would be much easier for Ronald Reagan to beat than a Democratic slate headed by Secretary of State Muskie and a moderate from the South or Border region.

Henry Kissinger, friends say, has not given up hope of taking over the State Department again. Kissinger now believes he may have one more chance—if George Bush becomes President.

Talk to Reagan aides about appointments to a potential cabinet, and the name of George Shultz, Treasury and Labor Secretaries during the Nixon years, is always among the first names mentioned. Likely post: Treasury.

Before Billy Carter left for Libya in 1978, his Georgia attorney urged him not to go, and begged Billy to break off all ties with the Libyans. Billy refused, and fired the attorney.

At least half a dozen White House lawyers and other staff members worked full time going through thousands of documents—telephone logs and visitor records—to answer requests on the Billy Carter case from Congress and to respond to new disclosures cropping up almost daily.

Friends of Indiana's Birch Bayh figure his chairmanship of the Senate

panel investigating the Billy Carter affair will provide him with the lift he needs to win re-election this November in an uphill battle. Bayh is expected to use the hearings to put distance between himself and Carter, while grabbing headlines almost daily.

With the Moscow Olympics over, Communist leaders in East Europe are fearful of a Soviet crackdown on all deviations from the Kremlin line. Russia, these officials say, wants to tighten reins throughout its empire.

White House aides were furious at Senate Majority Leader Byrd for lending credence to the dump-Carter movement by announcing that his colleagues are "uneasy" about the President's re-election chances. Carter advisers suspect that behind the pronouncement is Byrd's promotion of himself as an alternative candidate.

If positions to be taken by Republican leaders in Congress sound much like those of Ronald Reagan in coming fights over spending and tax issues, it's no accident. Party chieftains are in constant touch with the candidate and his aides in order to dovetail their arguments.

For all his widely reported criticism of Carter, West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt in private supports the President's re-election. Intimates say Schmidt regards both Carter and challenger Reagan as "extremely limited" but feels that a second term for Carter would at least provide continuity in U.S. policy.

Worry is spreading among Republican lawmakers campaigning for re-election over indications that John Anderson's candidacy will draw liberal Democrats to vote for him—and

for Democratic candidates. Said one GOP official: "Reagan may get a big boost, but our congressional candidates will get socked."

As Capitol Hill insiders tell it, the reason Congress decided to go along with Carter's standby gasoline rationing plan in late July was the conviction that the President would never put it into effect or, if he tried, lawmakers would have time to block it.

Even Fidel Castro's strongest supporters among Latin American officials were appalled, during a recent visit to Cuba, by the economic suffering and social demoralization they found there. Their conclusion: Castro's internal difficulties will restrain him from confrontation with the U.S.

Kurt Waldheim's announcement of support for a Palestinian state, according to insiders, is part of his campaign for re-election as U.N. Secretary General in 1981. They say he's currying favor among the Soviet Union and Arab and Third World nations to head off those launching a drive for Tanzania's Salim Salim, now General Assembly president.

Congressional leaders say you can forget enactment of the value-added tax—a form of national sales tax—for years to come. Chairman Al Ullman of the House Ways and Means Committee, one of VAT's staunchest supporters, is giving up for lack of votes.

Southwest electronics firms with military contracts complain that they are stymied in efforts to hire skilled personnel with "ethnic" names because of government refusal to issue security clearances. Ironically, officials say, they're trying to comply with equal-opportunity guidelines.

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U.S.NEWS & WORLD REPORT, Aug. 11, 1980