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FOR NBC TV

PROGRAM The Today Show

STATION WRC TV
NBC Network

DATE March 9, 1979 7:00 AM

CITY Washington, D. C.

SUBJECT An Interview with Dr. Henry Kissinger

TOM BROKAW: President Carter and President Sadat will continue their conferences today in the latest effort to find peace in the Middle East. A man who has been heavily involved in that process in the past is former Secretary of State, Dr. Henry Kissinger. He's standing by in our Washington News Center this morning with Bob Abernethy.

Gentlemen, good morning.

BOB ABERNETHY: Good morning, Tom. Welcome, Dr. Kissinger.

Let me begin with the President's decision to go to Cairo and Jerusalem himself to try and get an agreement. From what you've heard, did Mr. Carter have prior agreement from the Egyptians that a deal could be made?

DR. HENRY KISSINGER: No, I don't think he had prior agreement. And the textbook says you shouldn't go under those circumstances. But the textbook doesn't really apply to the Middle East. I think the situation requires some decisive action to bring it to a conclusion.

ABERNETHY: So the possible benefits justify the risks, as far as you're concerned?

DR. KISSINGER: I believe matters are very close to an agreement. I also don't think that either side can afford to fail or can afford to let the President fail. So I believe it was a reasonable gamble.

ABERNETHY: What's your sense of the degree of difficulty

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MAR 15 1979

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remaining, of the issues that remain to be settled?

DR. KISSINGER: Well, the problem is that the remain-
ing issues, on the one hand, are relatively trivial. On the
other, that makes them insoluble. They are essentially draft-
ing issues -- the relationship of this treaty to other treaties
that either party may have signed.

ABERNETHY: Material for lawyers?

DR. KISSINGER: Well, it's the sort. In any commercial negotiation, you have the problem of how does this new agreement affect agreements that already exist. And it's a similar thing. "Does it supersede it?" "What happens if it clashes with other existing obligations?"

This requires, in an important way, legal talent. The
second issue is the relationship of this settlement to another
settlement signed at Camp David, namely what happens on the West
Bank. And the issues are complex. They're symbolically very im-
portant. But they will not finally be decided by the text, but
by the good will of the parties in carrying it out.

ABERNETHY: I wanted to get to that. There are enor-
mous dangers, aren't there? I mean even after an agreement was
signed, there are still enormous dangers; for instance, as the
whole Palestinian thing begins to try to be put together.

DR. KISSINGER: I think we should realize that after
an agreement is signed, which I expect and, of course, hope,
that then there is very likely to be a major deadlock on the
West Bank negotiations which are foreseen in the agreement, be-
cause I think the Arab and Egyptian perceptions of what is to
happen and the Israeli perception are very far apart. There's
no argument against concluding the agreement, because that al-
ways happens in the Middle East. But it is an argument against
excessive optimism that this will be the end of a process.

ABERNETHY: Yes. So even if the agreement is made, in
six months or nine months or a year, the whole thing could look
as if it had fallen apart?

DR. KISSINGER: I don't know whether it will look as if the Egyptian-Israeli part has fallen apart. But I believe that within six months, major differences are going to become apparent on the West Bank negotiations, which will again create the characteristic impression of crisis, confrontation, incipient hysteria.

ABERNETHY: You've written and spoken about the need to
strength moderates all over the Middle East and discourage radi-
cals. To what extent is there a danger that an Israeli-Egyptian

agreement could just divide us and the Israelis and Egyptians
from everybody else in the region and, in fact, strengthen the
radicals?

DR. KISSINGER: There're two major conflicts now going on in the region; at least two. One, the Arab-Israeli problem; second, the moderate-radical problem. And the moderate-radical problem is beginning to supersede the Arab-Israeli one. There's no question that if an agreement is signed, the radicals will violently oppose it. On the other hand, if an agreement is not signed, the moderates who have relied on the United States will be so discredited, so that whatever assumption you make about the future, an agreement is much better than no agreement, and therefore it was important to bring it to a conclusion.

But we should not believe that such an agreement will
be the end of our difficulties, because as a result of Iran,
the radicals have received a tremendous shot in the arm.

ABERNETHY: So what do we need to do, specifically,
in terms of our power there, bases or other kinds of power?

DR. KISSINGER: The first thing is to analyze exactly what our problem is. Our basic problem is that the moderate governments in that area no longer believe that the United States can protect them or that the radicals are not necessarily the wave of the future. This accounts for the maneuvering of Saudi Arabia and Jordan. And so we have to demonstrate that the moderates have our backing and can be protected and that the radical-sponsored movements do not always prevail.

For example, South Yemen right now has been invading
North Yemen. And that must be stopped.

ABERNETHY: At what price? I mean should we -- should
we be willing to fight for North Yemen?

DR. KISSINGER: Well, I can't believe that it takes
the United States military forces to stop a little country like
South Yemen. I think military aid by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the
United States in the form of equipment....

ABERNETHY: Which is now happening.

DR. KISSINGER: ...plus the movement of our fleet. It
has to be done with great determination.

ABERNETHY: Dr. Kissinger, many thanks. It's good to
talk to you.

Tom?

BROKAW: Bob, Dr. Kissinger, thanks very much.