CONFIDENTIAL

BIAPRA

The West African country of Nigeria has been undergoing a civil
war for the past 18 months, and there are no signs of an early end
to the fighting. The war began when the Eastern part of Nigeria seceded,
calling itself Biafra. The Biafrans, who are predominantly members of
the Ibo Tribe, are convinced that the Federal Nigerian authorities intend
to exterminate them as a tribe. They appear to be willing to starve to
death rather than renounce their secession.

As a result of the war, a serious refugee problem has arisen in
Biafra. As the Federal troops advanced into the secessionist territory,
the Ibos retreated. Today approximately 7 million people are crammed into
Biafra, which is only about one-quarter of what it was when the secession
was declared. Starvation is a major problem and will probably get worse
(some 3 to 4 million people could die within the next few months), unless
more relief aid is sent.

There are several international relief agencies now aiding Biafra,
including the International Committee of the Red Cross and several
religious organizations,* but these agencies are facing numerous problems.
Biafra now has no sea ports and all supplies must be airlifted into its
one airstrip. The US and UK have for some time been urging that relief
be moved to the Biafrans over ground routes, but the Ibos fear that
Federal forces would use these routes for military purposes. The Nigerians
are suspicious that the agencies flying relief to the Biafrans may also
be transporting arms, and have therefore not given whole-hearted support
to the present relief effort. Some type of land relief routes will have
to be worked out if the problem is to be dealt with satisfactorily.

The Nigerian Government, which like all new countries is very
sensitive of its sovereignty, has been suspicious of the US role in
Nigeria, mainly because of the US has worked to aid the refugees. At the
same time, the USSR has been building a reputation of Nigeria's friend
in need by supplying military assistance to the Nigerians. The Nigerians
have strong ties with the West, however, particularly with the UK, and it
seems unlikely at this point that they will break these ties, and establish
closer relations with the Soviet Union.

The civil war itself has been a stalemate since last September, and
it does not appear that either side will score any major military victories
within the near future.

* Total international relief has already cost over $30 million, about 65 percent from public and private US sources.

CONFIDENTIAL

DECLASSIFIED

Per NSC Email 4/25/2012

By ETC L.C. Date 4/25/2012