["FROM 7914", "'87.06.28 12:53", "KISSINGER INTERVIEW WITH O ESTADO DE SAO PAULO AND JORNAL DOBRASIL, CONDUCTED ON JUNE 24, 1987, IN SAO PAULO, BRAZIL, BY OLIVEIROS S. FERRARA, ROBERT APPY, AND CELSO MING OF O ESTADO AND WILLIAM WAACK OF JORNAL DO BRASIL.", "Full Text Version", "Q: We would like to start with your plan for dealing with the problem of debt in Latin American countries.", "A: I have both a plan and a philosophy and we must distinguish between them because the plan is intended more as an illustration and not a proposal that can work exactly as I put it forward.", "But the fundamental idea is this: We have some kind of crisis over debt with one Latin American country or another every year. It is already clear that the principal on loans to these countries cannot be repaid in any short period of time and so the only thing to do about that is to give a long grace period.", "Fundamentally what is needed in the Western hemisphere is economic growth. The United States needs growth in Latin America, too, because recessions in developing countries reduces America's export potential. So philosophically, I would like to change the debate from how much interest on debt we can extract in each year to how much these countries can grow. Once they are growing, they will have their selfish reasons to service at least part of the debt in order to create the proper confidence.", "Let's take Brazil. It is impossible for Brazil to service its debt when that service consumes such a large percentage of its export income and of its gross national product and when all the new money it gets has to be repaid in the form of interest. So we are in a complicated period of what you could call interest capitalization - lending new money that then comes back in the form of interest, all the time making debt go up. The debt service must be made more predictable and more sustainable and for this reason I have suggested that we set an interest ceiling -- let's say 6 percent -- related to the growth rate of Brazil. Hopefully, the interest rate will be more or less the same as the growth rate.", "Then we have the problem of how to break the cycle of high interest rates and the high market rate. The best thing for developing countries to do is to have an international fund to which the international institutions one- each could contribute one-third of the benefit of interest because of that then there would be an international fund to take in keeping the interest rate down to contribute. In this manner a sustainable interest rate is paid which we can avoid confrontation.", "It's very important to avoid that they create a very bad psychological thing for developing countries to do. There are exporters of capital. The method of financing a creditor threatens to go to court and to make it dangerous because if the debtor defaults on his debt, the creditor can get a judgment. This is a very dangerous because if the

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Let's take Brazil. It is impossible for Brazil to service its debt when that service consumes such a large percentage of its export income and of its gross national product and when all the money it gets has to be repaid in the form of interest. So we are in a complicated period of what you could call interest capitalization: making new money that then comes back in the form of interest, and making debt more sustainable and for this reason I have suggested an interest ceiling -- let's say 6 percent -- for Brazil. Hopefully, the interest rate will fall as the growth rate.

Then we have the problem of how to keep the interest rate at 6 percent and the market rate. The best international fund to which the best international institutions one- or two- could contribute one-third. The benefit of interest because of that then there would be an international take in keeping the interest rates fixed to contribute. In this manner we can have a sustainable interest rate is paid over a period of time which we can avoid confrontation.

It's very important to avoid these conditions. They create a very bad psychological and bad thing for developing countries to begin to export. It is a dangerous because the debtor threatens not to make the payment then the creditor threatens to go to court and seize a portion of the debtor defaults. It will lose so much as

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Full Text Version

Let's take Brazil. It is impossible for Brazil to service its debt when that service consumes such a large percentage of its export income and of its gross national product and when all the new money it gets has to be repaid in the form of interest. So we are in a complicated period of what you could call interest capitalization, lending new money that then comes back in the form of interest, all the time making debt go up. The debt service must be made more predictable and more sustainable and for this reason I have suggested that we set an interest ceiling -- let's say 6 percent -- related to the growth rate of Brazil. Hopefully, the interest rate will be more or less the same as the growth rate.

Then we have the problem of how to bridge the difference between 6 percent and the market rate. The best approach is to establish an international fund to which the banks contribute one-quarter, international institutions one-quarter and governments one-half. Or each could contribute one-third. The banks would not get the full benefit of interest because of their own contribution, but at least when there would be an international system. The governments have a take in keeping the interest rates low because that reduces their own need to contribute. In this manner we can have a system by which a sustainable interest rate is paid over a predictable future and by which we can avoid confrontation.

It's very important to avoid these confrontations for two reasons. They create a very bad psychological and political framework. It is a bad thing for developing countries to begin to think of themselves as mere exporters of capital. The methodology of the confrontations is dangerous because the debtor threatens not to pay off and then the creditor threatens to go to court and seize assets. Both threats are dangerous because if the debtor defaults completely it will lose so

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much standing in the international trading system that its own economy
will be severely damaged. If the creditor goes to court there is
certainly less collateral available for him to seize than is owed to
him in interest. And even a reduced interest payment will be more then
he can get in court. But as things now stand, all it takes is one
nervous bank president to try and teach Brazil or Mexico a lesson and
you have a huge crisis.

Once it's in an American court, it's almost impossible to get it out.
The government cannot go to the court and say "Let's forget about this."
So once it's in the court we have a horrible mess; you will start
seizing American assets, and then we will be in a terrible situation. I
think the interest issue should be settled and very soon.

As to new money, as I said before an international fund should be
created, capitalized at, say, $30 billion over five or ten years, with
half coming from the governments of industrial democracies, one-quarter
from banks, and one-quarter from international institutions. Now $30
billion may sound like a lot, but the banks are already lending more
than $7.5 billion just for interest payments. If $15 billion is divided
among industrial democracies, the United States might have to
contribute, say, $4 billion, but between Israel and Egypt we already
give more than that and Latin America is at least as important to us as
Israel and Egypt. What is needed is imagination.

Q: May I assume that in your opinion, multilateral institutions, like the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank, are definitely out of such broad solutions of the deficit crisis?

A: You understand that I am speaking as a private citizen. None of
this reflects our government's view, nor does it reflect the views of
the banks. But I intend to try to convince both the government and the
banks that my approach is the right one.

The multilateral institutions are not necessarily out altogether.
But a small action committee will have to be created to give the fund I
outlined new impetus and to distinguish it as a new effort to promote
growth. Now, can the IMF and the World Bank be used? I know this is a
big issue in Brazil and my personal view is that the question of
the IMF is for Brazil to decide, but I do not believe there is anything
magic about the IMF.

The IMF got involved so that the banks could have an excuse to lend
new money because a third party had looked at the books. The trouble is
that the IMF was designed for short-term emergencies, not for a
permanent crisis.

In a short-term emergency, you can make technical proposals and they
will either be accepted or not. But if they are accepted, the
government concerned looks at them as an investment. A year later, the
IMF is out of the picture.

I was involved in one three-month negotiation with Great Britan in
1976. Actually the government in Britain wanted the IMF in the picture
ecause it gave them an excuse with their own people to take measures
they recognized as necessary but didn't want to take on their own. You
can do that once, but if you do it year after year, then the IMF
ecomes almost the finance minister of the country, and that's
unacceptable.

Q: At the economic summit in Venice, the industrialized nations
strongly supported the idea of a case-by-case approach of the debt
risks in the framework of the existing multilateral institutions. Are

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you prescribing a fundamental change of strategy?

A: They are afraid of a debtor's cartels. Within the framework I outlined, you can still have a case-by-case approach. You should make sums available not by quota but tied to some economic achievement. If you do it by quota, you will make a lot of terrible loans for purely political reasons. I think the World Bank is better suited for development projects than the IMF. But I think the economic summit was a little bit behind the times. A new approach is needed.

Q: Would your international fund control the expenditures of local governments?

A: No. In the end, you cannot have international institutions impose solutions on governments. The ideal would be a negotiated solution in which governments state what their objectives are so that you have some criteria to judge whether they are fulfilled. In the Marshall Plan this did not turn out to be a serious problem.

Q: The Marshall Plan was a recovery program. In that plan you had, not loans, but grants, as well as social programs. And was there not in the Marshall Plan a great intervention by the United States?

A: Some intervention is unavoidable. The question is whether it reflects the wishes of the people concerned. And investment in social programs should be possible. What they did in the Marshall Plan was to create counterpart funds so that repayments in local currency were at the disposal of the local governments, creating two funds with which to work. It seems to me that if a decision is made to be creative about growing, then formulas can be found to take care of these concerns. I think the banks have not been unreasonable, but you can't expect banks to conduct foreign policy. The banks have actually made many concessions in terms of their profit, but they are not political institutions, they are profit-making institutions. But I understand your point. I think one would need a very flexible approach to this issue.

Q: I think that your program is too flexible. Don't you need a promise to make investments as a counterpart? Otherwise, I will take the money and spend it where I want to because I am a sovereign state.

A: It has to be negotiated. There has to be some agreed program. Nobody gets free money in this world. The question is whether reasonable people in Brazil can say this is really a good program for economic growth. There may not be unanimity, but Brazilians can live with it.

Q: Is not the American Congress a problem in this?

A: As I said, what I have described has, at this moment, no support in our government and no support in our country. But one has to ask what is the duty of a political leader? I believe the political leader as the duty to take his society from the familiar to where it has not been. Too many leaders of democracies, including in our own country, make public opinion polls to see what people will support. The public opinion polls will never support a proposal such as mine. People will ask why you should give money to Brazil when you have farm foreclosures in the Middle West. But if there is a catastrophe, and five years from now all of Latin America is anti-free market and anti-United States, everybody will blame the government anyway, even if it was carrying out the popular view. So the first thing you need is an Administration that is dedicated to this. Then the way things work in America, one would create some sort of committee to work on public opinion of leading

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citizens. That, incidentally, is possible. I know enough leading Americans who would have great prestige as members of a committee that would support my ideas. That's the easiest part.

Q: Would you serve on such a committee?

A: Absolutely. I'd feel offended if I was not asked to serve on it. Then you have to convince the Congress. That is not going to be at all easy. But when you look around the Congress today, there are a number of good people, people like Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey, for example, and you could get ten or fifteen leaders from both parties to support this. It would be a very bitter fight, harder than the Marshall Plan because America has become more isolationist. Then the political relations between the Latin American countries and the United States would have to be also taken into account because, quite frankly, and Brazil is the least guilty of this -- if these countries are entirely Third World and oppose everything the United States does politically, it creates a very difficult atmosphere. I'm not saying they have to support everything but there has to be an attitude that we are living in the same world, discussing common problems.

Q: What are the solutions to America's debt problem, the farmers' problem and the United States deficit problem?

A: America's problems have many similarities to Brazil's problems. We have consumed too much and we cannot solve our problems without reducing consumption. We have a very tricky period ahead of us. At the moment, our economy is flat, and yet everybody agrees that taxes should be raised to decrease the deficit. But if we raise taxes at the wrong moment with a flat economy we could go into a recession. If we go into a recession, it affects our ability to do any of these things, and it affects your ability to export because we take 60% of that export. We have a national debt of upwards of $2.3 trillion and that means spending nearly $200 billion a year on interest. Our trade deficit is in the range of $150 billion to $160 billion and we have to turn around our trade balance and go into surplus by that amount. To do that we must either import less or export a lot more. We have big problems ahead in the United States, independent of the problems we have been discussing. I pity the next president of the United States. He's got huge problems.

Q: You have stressed the need for growth. Can you imagine headlines next Nov. 13, which is a Friday, that would talk of a trade war among Japan, Germany and the United States; another saying Congress had imposed more tariffs; and a third saying Brazil is near default?

A: That could happen. We are living in a precarious world in which a lot of governments, maybe yours, have been avoiding difficult decisions because there's always an election somewhere and they always have a tendency to let the next man handle it. It could happen. If it does, it would represent a total failure of Western leadership that would lead to a huge crisis in all our countries. I think it is my duty as an outsider to talk about a future we can achieve, which is within our capabilities. If you ask me, it will (unital) it happen, well, you know, in Brazil, everybody tells me that the Besser plan [drafted by Finance Minister Luiz Carlosesser of Brazil] can work only if everybody cooperates, including the united States.

Q: Would your plan apply to the Socialist countries that areektors?

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A: Not as I see it because that probably cannot be done. On a case-by-case basis, one can make special arrangements, but if you make it all-inclusive, which countries would be debtors?

Q: What you are describing is a world crisis. Will it include the Soviet Union?

A: Yes, but with the Soviet Union we have a difference. First of all, I have very serious doubts that the Soviet Union can solve its problems without some structural changes. You cannot have a totally planned economy because you get such collusion between the politicians and the managers that you have no incentive for high technology, no incentive for quality and you have total confusion about demand. It is a supply-driven economy. The manager becomes a politician, not an entrepreneur. And so they need structural changes. Now, should we help them if they make structural changes? Yes, if they change their foreign policy to be less aggressive. But if all we're doing is financing their military establishment indirectly by freeing resources, then it becomes a very great foreign policy question. I have always favored support for China, for example, which is not at this moment conducting an aggressive foreign policy. So I believe that if we could come to a political understanding with the Soviet Union about restraint in foreign policy, they should also be an economic (garbled).

Q: In a recent article for Newsweek, you said reform is in the air in the Soviet Union, but the purpose of that reform is not to achieve democracy or freedom and that even if the reform program does succeed, it does not automatically guarantee a more benign Soviet foreign policy. Is that not too pessimistic.?

A: If the Soviet Union conducts the same foreign policy, it will then be stronger. Everybody talks as if Gorbachev wants to change the communist system. If you have spent all your career in an organization which you joined voluntarily and in which promotion is by accommodation at each level, is it probable that you want to change that system? If so, why is it necessarily true that if the Soviet Union is richer than it will be easier to deal with, unless it changes its foreign policy? Look at the current situation. It is spending $3 billion to $4 billion a year in Cuba. It is spending $1 billion in Nicaragua and another $1 billion in Angola. It is spending $3 billion to $4 billion in Vietnam and I don't know how much in Afghanistan. We're talking about $10 billion to $15 billion on foreign adventures in countries where Russia has had no historic interest and in which its major role is military. It isn't contributing to the development of these countries.

So I'm not asking for the Soviet Union to do anything except stay in its own territory, which is so large that there are eleven time zones within the Soviet Union. The distance from Leningrad to Vladivostok is greater than the distance from Vladivostok to Seattle, or from Leningrad to New York. I even accept the fact that in Eastern Europe they have special security concerns that we should respect. But there is no law of nature that they have to be active in Central America and Angola and always in a military manner. That is what has to be ended.

Q: Are the recent proposals from Mr. Gorbachev concerning the arms talks and reduction on short-range and middle-range missiles a change in his foreign policy or is the Soviet Union preparing a trap?

A: I believe that the present proposals, unfortunately, are objectively a trap. They do not improve the military situation in any significant way but they are creating in western Europe a new form of

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questioning American politics

PAGE 6

anti-Americanism and neutralism. You have been in Germany. You know what it has done to the CDU (Christian Democratic Party) in Germany. When the CDU starts being a pro-American party or moves to the left then the Socialists move further to the neutralist side. So we have paid a huge price in the internal structure of German politics for a minimum gain. Now, what makes it worse is that Gorbachev accepted our proposal, so you can't really blame Gorbachev. Our government is more to blame than he is. It's a pity because Gorbachev is a highly intelligent man and the new leaders are more flexible than any I have seen. I wish we had a fundamental dialogue with them. I don't know what the answer would be if we had a fundamental dialogue or whether it would succeed. But you cannot tell from the present position what his ultimate objectives are in foreign policy. And I would like to test it; it would be interesting.

Q: This situation leads to the combination of world politics and world economy. Would your plan enlist, let us say, world politics and democracy and serve the same function as the Marshall Plan?

A: As I said before, it is the duty of leaders to set the course, even if they should fail. But it may be easier to do one big thing than ten little things because if you do a lot of little things, you exhaust your energy in endless technical discussions, which is one of my concerns with these arms control proposals. I don't think there are a hundred people, certainly not two hundred people, in America who understand the numbers they are discussing in arms control and I don't know how many people in Brazil can follow them. It's become an esoteric subject for experts on which experts are divided. So it's much better to have a big objective. Now, is it possible to enlist the Third World? Yes, that's the point of the exercise, to make at least the responsible developing countries feel that they are part of the system. They don't have to agree with every direction. But they have to feel that they are living in a world in which they can benefit from progress, not in a divided world in which only one small group dictates policy. When you look at history, the periods that have been peaceful have been those in which the major countries felt that they had more to gain from maintaining the system than overthrowing it. That didn't mean they couldn't make adjustments.

You can't have every last country agree. But if the major countries agree, and I would include Brazil as a major country, each of them has enough influence on other countries, so that the vast majority of countries will then agree. In Europe in the 19th century, when there was more or less peace, and progress, I don't know any country that was dissatisfied that it preferred to go to war.

Q: And the situation in the Middle East?

A: It is unprecedented that you have to conduct foreign policy with 50 nations simultaneously. You have to set some priorities and it's obviously easier for the United States to do that in the Western hemisphere. But I don't think you can solve the problems in the Middle East with this sort of a plan because in the Middle East you have oslem fundamentalists, you have Arabs and Israelis, you have the oviets, you have every current conflict coming together. So I don't think there is an economic plan that can solve the Middle East problem.

believe the world will be regionalized in the next fifteen or twenty years and that the United States should give very high priority to the eastern hemisphere, not to the exclusion of all other countries, but

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till a high priority.

Q: Your idea is regarded as radical because, as you stated, the
United States is in a highly nationalistic mood and its attention is on
he Far East, not Latin America.

A: But that's a purely commercial thing. I mean, what structure can
be built in the Pacific? Japan will be more and more competitive. Of
ourse, the Pacific becomes very important, but if the Western
emisphere, particularly Mexico, were to blow up, our frontier would be
n the Rio Grande and you would quickly see America's summon ships from
oth the Atlantic and the Pacific. But the art of foreign policy is to
o things before they are critical. If my view is somewhat radical at
his moment it is radical only in the context of the present, not of
the future.

Q: I assume other countries such as Japan and Germany would
ontribute to your international fund. But based on the standing of the
anks and the surpluses of various countries, it would seem that Japan
ust contribute more than the United States and so must Germany. Is
hat possible without a reform of the international monetary system?

A: One of the problems is that the international political system and
the international economic system are essentially out of balance with
ach other. The flexible exchange system isn't working and we need
omething along the lines of Bretton Woods but brought up to date
ecause economic conditions have changed so much since the 1940s. That
ill require the industrial democracies to get together and I hope that
t some economic summit they do something besides taking photographs
nd a successor to Bretton Woods will be a good topic for them. I don't
think the existing arrangements are very satisfactory.

Q: Many, many commentators are very concerned with the relationship
etween economic stabilization and military intervention in politics in
atin America, which is one of the main historical characteristics of
he subcontinent. Could your fund help avoid the military's coming back
o power in huge countries like Brazil and Argentina?

A: I have a personal preference for democracy. I would far prefer
emocratic governments and I think there should be a bias toward
emocratic governments. Still, I am very leary of the United States
etting mixed up in the domestic politics of every country in the world
hich we don't understand.

Q: You would break your traditions?

A: Not my personal traditions. I think we have enough trouble
conducting our own foreign policy. Essentially, whether the military
omes back to control government or not, depends on how strong the
emocratic tradition is in the country concerned. If the economy is
eell off and if a democratic government has achieved that, democracy
ill be strengthened and in that sense I favor it. What I don't like is
he United States mixing, either on the left or on the right, in the
ay-to-day political management of countries because we don't understand
t well enough.

Q: If you regionalize the international politics of the United
tates, would not the economic issues compel you to intervene against
eftists, against anti-market policies?

A: I believe that we should oppose governments that cause us trouble
n foreign policy, because that's where our interest is. I think recent
istory shows that planned economies cannot work because they lead to
tagnation. That's not an ideological preference, that is what

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experience shows. I was struck when I was last in the Soviet Union by the fact that when the Soviet leaders, from Gorbachev down, explained their economy to us they were more critical than the most conservative American could be of the results of a state enterprise managing, colluding with, the ministers. They can't even find out what the real statistics are and they have no market to tell them what is happening because they have no incentive for innovation. So in this sense I think you need a market economy and you need incentives. But Japan and Korea have shown that with the right relationship between the government and the private sector you can have an industrial policy that is very creative and which does not exclude the government. Now, of course, when you start moving funds around you are intervening. But what I oppose is management of political affairs in foreign countries by the United States on behalf of either the right or the left. I don't think we understand these countries well enough to manage their domestic affairs.

Q: In the Conference of Mexico in 1973, the New Dialogue meeting in Matelolco, you asked the Latin American countries to enact statutes for trans-national companies in ways that would not affect the international policies of the United States.

A: In the end, the largest amount of free capital is in the multinational companies, more so than in government. With all due respect, I have not understood the Latin American concern on this issue because I think the strongest multinational company is less strong politically than the weakest government. Any smart multinational company must want to coexist with local conditions, so I have always felt that multinational companies are a lot safer to have in a country than government loans. They have to be profit oriented, and if they're profit oriented, their operations have to benefit the country where they are, if the country has sensible legislation. What I had in mind when was to set up some code that would make operating conditions in country predictable so that more funds would be available for investment in Latin America. I would have absolutely no objection to a code that prohibits multinationals from interfering in political affairs. I think that would be desirable. I must tell you frankly, my personal view is that if a multinational company is smart, it will not risk itself on politics. And my experience with chief executive officers of companies has been that they don't understand politics anyway.

Q: Do you believe that we have a big enough economic or political crisis to justify a summit meeting between the developing nations to discuss this kind of fund?

A: I have talked to some friends, especially in Germany, about whether it would be desirable to call a conference to discuss the international debt problem. And I have found some leading people who support the idea. The crisis is severe enough, but I don't think one should call such a conference unless one is sure of the outcome. It could be better to have no conference than to have a conference which leads to disappointing results.

I personally think that if the Reagan administration wants to leave in historic mark it could do so in that field more easily than in arms control, where in two years nobody will understand what these numbers meant, but an economic conference could lead to historic change. In my view it will happen, but I can't tell you whether it will happen six

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PAGE 9

years or two years from now. But the problem is serious enough. You
cannot let a whole region of the world slide into a recession without
being forced to do something.

Q: Do you believe you have enough support from the countries in Latin America to discuss this issue or do you still need more support?

A: Well the countries I know best are Mexico, then Brazil, then Argentina. I think it would be possible with those three countries to do it. I think the major countries would join.

Q: What about the quality of leadership in those three countries right now?

A: I think that [Mexican President Miguel de la Madrid has been very courageous, but of course the government is changing in Mexico next year, so one has to see who the new president will be. I think (Argentine President Raúl) Alfonsin has been very courageous in Argentina. I think your government has made mistakes, but it has also in its complex Brazilian way gradually moved in the right direction. (Yes I think there is enough quality of leadership in Latin America to support it.)

Q: Have you discussed the idea of this plan with [Brazilian] President José Sarney?

A: Yes, I mentioned it. But I have taken the position that if the Brazilian ministers to whom I spoke want to say what we discussed they are perfectly free to do it but I don't think I should come to Brazil and then hold press conferences about what your leaders have said to me.

Q: What kind of impression of Brazil have you formed? And if you could elaborate, what impression do you have on the political prospects of Argentina and Mexico? Do you think these three big countries, which are at the same time the three biggest indebted countries, are on the brink of political turmoil or do you see a brighter future?

A: I actually will leave with a more optimistic feeling about Brazil than I had when I arrived. You have huge problems, but when I have listened to Brazilian leaders talk to each other, I had the sense that there is nobody who would rather defeat his political enemies than make progress for Brazil. There is an atmosphere here that I find very productive. One important question is whether the Better plan will succeed. It has a chance. And as long as it keeps getting adjusted, I don't believe that there will be social chaos here.

There is a danger here but if I had to bet, I would bet that you will solve it in a manner that isn't perhaps evident to outsiders. Brazil is working its way through its difficulties and becoming more responsible. How that is done I don't quite understand, but it happens. Do you on the whole I am very optimistic. I think Alfonsin has done a lot for Argentina and De la Madrid has been very responsible. Now each country has huge social problems. Is it possible that one of them will explode? Yes it is possible. That's why we have to act, to give some hope. But I think we have basically good governments now in the key countries.

Q: Do you think that the big companies, which are getting bigger and bigger, or the small companies will be the most important part of the world economy?

A: Well, among the established companies in the United States, there is an unfortunate tendency toward merging and fiscal operations which absorb too much of the talent in unproductive enterprises and so there

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is a tendency for them to become bigger. But if you look in the areas of innovation, in the high-tech industries, there has been a lot of room for smaller companies and some of the most creative work has been done by the smaller companies. I believe that the high-tech area is the area of the greatest promise. I think there's a great future for medium-sized companies that have a lot of imagination. That was certainly true in the previous days of the technological revolution. But among the existing companies there is, in the United States at least, a tendency toward mergers, not all of which are favorable.

Q: The Marshall Plan was an initiative of your government. Who would take the initiative on your plan?

A: That has to be done by the United States, Japan and the European community. An American president could preside over it, but he would have to consult with the European communities and, of course, many other governments. But it can be done. In fact, I think it will be done. The only question is will it be done in time or will it come too late. And, of course, without it, there will be a systemic crisis and that's why I don't want it perceived as an act of charity or as an act of unilateral self-interest. The big problem is to create an international system which, hopefully, will engage the whole of whole of humanity, but certainly the majority of humanity and that is a problem that must be solved. If it isn't solved, there will be constant conflict.

VILLARES

GRUPO VILLARES

Diretoria

DAG.023/87

São Paulo, July 3, 1987.

Dr. Henry A. Kissinger
Kissinger Associates, Inc.
Twenty - Sixth Floor
350 Park Avenue
New York, NY 10022

Dear Dr. Kissinger:

Attached is a folder containing materials related to your recent visit to Brazil,
as follows:

a. Newspaper and magazine clipping

b. List of guests for the June 23 dinner

c. Tape recording of yours and Paulo Villares' remarks during the dinner. in Betty Office

I also take this opportunity to say that organizing the June 23 / 24 events of your stay with us, under Paulo's guidance, was for me not only an honour, but also a great personal pleasure.

LIST OF GUESTS AT
DINNER OFFERED BY
PAULO D. VILLARES
HONOURING DR.
HENRY A. KISSINGER

June 23, 1987

São Paulo

Brazil

RELAÇÃO DE CONVIDADOS PRESENTES AO JANTAR
- Dr. HENRY KISSINGER -
23.06.87

Alexandre Rodolf Smith Vasconcellos

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Centro Brasileiro Forjarias

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Alcan - Alumínio do Brasil S/A

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Abrave - Assoc. Bras. Distr. Veículos Automotores

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Marlene Domingos Orth

ABDIB - Associação Brasileira para o Desenvolvimento da
Indústria de Base

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01223 - São Paulo - SP

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Alphaville

06400 - Barueri - SP

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LQ

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Rua dos Franceses, 324
Bela Vista
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Pola Junqueira Franco
Quaker - Produtos Alimentícios Ltda
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Consolação
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Nelson de Sampaio Bastos
Cláudia Adami
Contron S/A - Ind. e Comércio
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João Elisio Ferraz de Campos
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Rua Comendador Araújo, 551 - 11o. a
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Robert Blocker
Blocker S/A
Alameda Campinas, 463 - 1o. a - conj. C/D
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Oscar Augusto Camargo
Idort - Inst. de Organização Racional do Trabalho
Av. São Luiz, 165 - 3o. a
Centro
01046 - São Paulo - SP

Henri Sage
Badoni ATB - Indústrias Metalúrgicas S/A
Av. Paulista, 807 - 17o. a
01311 - São Paulo - SP

Álvaro Dias
Debora Dias
Governador do Estado do Paraná
Palácio Iguaçu
Centro Cívico
80000 - Curitiba - PR

JORNAL DA TARDE - 18.06.87
ECONOMIA - p. 14

KISSINGER

A dívida externa brasileira — este será um dos temas a ser discutido entre o presidente Sarney e o secretário de Estado norte-americano, Henry Kissinger, na segunda-feira, numa reunião no Palácio do Planalto, que também deverá contar com a participação do ministro da Fazenda.

[LC]

O ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO - 05.07.87

p. 01

Kissinger e a
solução para a
dívida externa

O Brasil não consegui-
rá pagar o serviço da dívi-
da externa se continuar
consumindo uma porcenta-
gem tão grande das expor-
tações e do PIB. A opinião
é do ex-secretário de Esta-
do norte-americano Henry
Kissinger, em entrevista
ao Estado. Ele sugere a fi-
xação de um teto para os
juros, relacionado com o
índice de crescimento do
País.

Páginas 22 e 23

24 — O ESTADO DE S. PAULO

C

Quem faz o que ninguém faz?

O que ninguém faz o bom bairro faz. A deficiência é do capítulo do Corpo de Bom-bairro. Edson Gonçalves, do Drupamento de Bucá e Salcamento, e reflete bem o espírito que cerca essa profissão que címcilmente é lembra. B0 em São Paulo são quase mí heróis anónimos, que des- fiam a vida por salários reduzidos e que tem o apolo undívime da população, já que não a porta aberta para a solução dos mais variados casos de todo os tipos, pos- síveis e imaginações.

Na realidade eles são lembrares sempre nas grandes tragédias, como a acontecimento recentemente no Cester- onde com equipamentos e maloria das veezes inadequadas são abriadas por fuc- clorar como última esperança de sol- ço. Durante todo o ano, nenhum se pre- cupa se verificam os desastres comem- agua, se as manguetas estão em perfel- tos condições, se as carreiras e escaduras que eles têm sobrevivem são mais recor- mendáveis para o exercício da jobação, mas bate qualquer choque e idão coragem e determinação para uma aventura que faí parte de seu dia-a-dia.

Agora incluímos, retiraos patos de lata de leite condensado, rectificar e pa-

puguio no alto da drepó, tirar a cornja do parapeto do prédio, retirar corpos de rios, procurar uma ente ferrugem, eles fazem de tudo um posto. Quaisquer pessoas com qualquer problema a primeira colha que faz "chamar o bairro", que estro- al adjetivo para qualificar aqueles que estão sempre a disposição para as mais complicadas tarefas.

Está semana, os bombeiros comemora- ram seu Día, muitos deles em plantão, outros talhando rízes, sempre em alerta para um perigo maior. Sempre anónimos, abrindo caminho com a síntira que causa adstrução e respeito, eles não esfriam- do os perigos do dia da profissão, caja utória maior e a recuperação de pídas Dodos, Antónios, Pedros, Mários, José, eles são apenas bombeiros, sem dia e sem hora, sem feriado ou dia nouta. Crutam a perícia por todos os casos sempre na ten- titiva de levar um posto de pa- tranciamento para as habitantes da metrópoli, que podem poder contar com eles. Neste domínio, por exemplo, muitos desseitos mil que estão em São Paulo não atingem re-orno a a fúria, nem se divertirão sum cinema ou em um campo de futebol. Bolso- rão apensou à disposição, já que o que nenhumem faz, o bom bairro faz.

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O ESTADO DE S. PAULO

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A repetição de acidentes atribui- dos ao gás nesta semana jevou o Pro- con a iniciação uma investigação para verificar o Índice de segurança, tanto do gás encanado como do gás de bo- tilhão e se for o caso definir as reco- mendações a serem levadas ao públi- co através de uma campanha de es- clerocionado. O diretor do Procon, Daniel Roberto Fink, disse que já fez a solicitação de verba para adquirir vários tipos de aquecedores e para emcomendar os testes junto ao Inqui- tuto de Pesquisas Tecnológicas. Ele confessa que até em sua própria fa- mília já aconteceu um incidente fatal com gás. Foi em agosto do ano passado, relembra, quando seu irmão e sua cunhada foram encontrados mortos no banheiro de uma casa de veraneio, em Serra Negrá, com aque- cedor a gás ligado.

O caso relatado pelo especialista em defesa do consumidor é muito semelhante ao registrado em Moe- ma, na semana passada, quando um casal foi retirado morto do banheiro do edifício Fortimão, na esquina das aveniçadas Juaperi e dos macacos, também com o aquecedor ligado. E a esse acidente somou-se outro causa- pra pela explosão do gás que vazou de um botijão e destruiu duas residen- cias na runs Thomas Teixeira em Ci- dade Adhemar, deixando seis pes- soas feridas.

A Comgás não quis analisar os acidentes, ontem, argumentando que o único caso atribuído ao gás encanado não está esclarecido, pola se suspeita apenas que o casal de Moema tenha morrido intoxizado por gás. 80 depois do laudo do Insti- tuto Médico Legal, que ainda não saiu, havera certeza de que a morte não teve outras causas — Intoxica-

no e não o gás encanado ou de bo- tilhão.

O especialista da Comgás, enge- nheiro Acássio Joaquim Costa Car- doso, explica que tanto o gás encana- do distribuído em São Paulo, produ- zido a partir da nafta, como o gás liqüefetto de petróleo distribuído nos botijões, são subprodutos do petro- leo e tem fraco odor. Por isso mesmo o Brasil segue as normas internacionais e adiciação ao produto certa- quantidade de tetrahidro/tiofenó (material irritante e de odor pronun- ciado) para que em caso de vazamen- to o usuário sinta o cheiro que já se acostumou e associar à presença de gás. A partir de dezembro próximo, diz o engenheiro, São Paulo está recebendo gás natural que será dis- tribuído pela Comgás, mas que virá da Petróbras já com o odor caracte- rístico acrescentado. Essa odor tem cumprido seu papel, garante o espe-

cialista, tanto que são muito raros os
casos de intoxicação por gás, ilílis
raros ainda com o moderno sistema
de segurança dos aquecedores, que
vedam a saída do gás assim que,
a chama-piloto apaga.

A maioria dos acidentes ocor- rem, portanto, explica o engenheiro, quando o gás é usado para fina de calefação em noites de inverno. Para não perder o calor, o usuário fecha as entradas de ar, vós nas janelas e portas por exemplo. Com isso impe- de a renovação do oxigênio no al- blente. Sem oxigênio suficiente, o gás começa a sofrer combustão in- completa e o resultado é a produção de monóxido de carbono, este sim um gás completamente inodoro e um gás perigoso. As pessoas afetadas pelo monóxido sentem sono, dor- mem e, se o oxigênio no ambiente não for renovado, podem morrer dyr- mindo.

O ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO - 24.06.87

p. 01

A solução Kissinger para a dívida

O ex-secretário de Estado norte-americano Henry Kissinger defendeu ontem em São Paulo a formação de um fundo de US$ 150 bilhões, que seriam liberados em cinco

anos aos países devedores. Ele argumenta que negociações isoladas não resolvem o problema da dívida dos países em desenvolvimento e, por isso, é necessário um esquema in-

ternacional, como o Plano Marshall. Sobre o Brasil, Kissinger foi bastante cláro: o País não pode ficar preso aos problemas de renegociação dos juros vendidos.

Página 19

JORNAL DO BRASIL

Econo

A construção de cascos de submarinos é apenas uma das opções da Nuclep para não ficar co-
paralisada. A empresa já tem encomenda de prensas, cilindros, turbinas e outros

Nuclep esquece as
usinas e fabrica
casco de submarino

Teresa Cristina Lobo

A Nuclep, fábrica de equipamentos pesados da Nuclebrá, com a se desvincular das usinas deixa com os equipa-
tores das usinas nucleares Anga 2 e 3, que serio transferidos para o cantente de obras de Angra dos Reis — exceto, os mais
pesados, como os vascos dos trebres — e é abrangido espaço para a
fertilização dos cascos dos três submarinos encomendados pela
Marinha, uma faturação de R$240 milhões.

Hoje a empresa anda bem konge do seu objetivo inicial, de
preparar, fabricar, deseover e vender complementos pesados
para as centrais nucleares, conforme ainda conta em seus
lófetos, e abrira o lume de encomendas para a complementa-
ção da indústria privada, o que, se permitir um futuromento
típico ano de C$2,5 bilhão, o eficiente para pagar a fóra de
pagamentos dos 785 funcionários e impede o naufrigo junto
com o programa nuclear.

Pode ser difícil acreditá, mas o fato é que já está preenchos
os equipamentos para Anga 2, que começam a chegar
no Brasil em 1984, depois de trés anos estocados na Alemanha,
lemosmo o contrato para a montagem tenha sido cancelado
devido a proibição dos cenegranos pelo presidente José
Barney. O mesmo acontece em relação a Angra 3, que sequer
tem prazo para instalar a obra. E a Nuclep não sabe o que fará
das partes do vaso do reactor do gerador de vapor que encomende
a construir para a quarta uma nuclear do país, que será
fertilizada em Iguape. São Paulo, e agora está aí que há
tido desapropiadamente já foi vendida outra vez. O jenó foi para a
fertilização de seis submarinos.

O diretor suplementário da Nuclep, Flávio Leal, não
concorreu que a compareitra entrado por programa nuclear
com mais de 5500 nucleares dos submarinos, embora
já a proposta Marinha faça sobrando o submarino nuclear
para este segundo projeto. A Nuclep tem
condições de fazer o reactor do submarino nuclear não tenha
interferido, diante ele, argumentando que além de se tratar de uma
encomenda de pequena porta, traria polêmica e abrangimentos
políticos.

Enforto — Com o primeiro atingo no concreto
nuclear, o primeiro equipamento que seriam fabricados no exterior
como o pressurizador de Angra 3, pela Voest Alpine, na
Austria — foram transferidos para Nuclep, já chamada de
“elefante branco”. O fato real é que a Nuclep durante cinco
años não teria encomendas nucleares no Brasil, admiti
Flávio Leal. Daí o entrado no mercado como complementação
da indústria privada e a construção dos cascos dos submarinos,
Desna forma, cíprocos ele, quando se sabe que o Arsenel
de Marinha construirá trb submarinos do tipo IKL 1900,
atirados de contraco com o estabelecimento HDW, a Nuclep se
oferecerá para fabricar os cascos, pois já detinha a tecnologia de
vase de pressão. O contrato firmado no ano passado prevê um
casco por ano a partir do final de 1988.

Entre os cascos com equipamentos para as usinas nucle-
res e os pratoris para as submarines, ministram-se
pequenas encomendas da indústria privada, como duas prnas
com mais de 2500 nucleares para a Indústria Conventos, do
Rio Grande de Sol, peças para máquinas operacionais para a
Química, peças para a indústria de celulose Beloit Raums,
perdas para o limpo Central, cilindros e turbinas para a
Magazine. Esses equipamentos, observem Leal, não encontram em
encomenda com o mercado atualmente porque somente a Nuclep tem
capacidade para faixar-lhes.

O diretor admite uma ocorrência de 30% a 40%, indício
que considera o normal em qualquer indústria em relação a
capacidade operacional. No entanto, não existe muito-de-obra
que, mesmo por que o número de funcionários, que já chegue
em 1 mil 200, não passa hoje de 785. Obrigado, no entanto para
a divulgação do diretor, existi o centro de treinamento, com
capacidade para 150 alunos, agora com apenas 32, perdendo-se
a oportunidade de se formar muito-de-obra de nível médio.

Inaugurado em maio de 1980, com um investimento de 123
milhões de dólares, até os almeios, que participavam com 25%
do capital investido, foram embora e sua participação restinge-
indo a 1%. Dos 20 anexos tecnicos almeios, restou apensar um,
O presidente da Nuclep, Luciano Seabra, admite
que dificuldades da fabrica com a falta de encomenda e firma
que ficará feliz se os empreços quiquessem participar da
Nuclep.

PET
COMB

A PETROBRÁS escolheu o
MATEC em sua primeira aqui-
PABX digital de grande porte,
dade inicial de 5500 ramais, dotados de to-
das as facilidades e recursos exigidos pela
sua operação.

Trata-se de um PABX digital de alta ca-
pacidade, cuja tecnologia permite a implan-
tação de redes integradas de comunicações,
com unidades remotas que podem ser ins-
taladas em vários pontos do país, cada uma
delas podendo operar como PABX indepen-
dente.

Os serviços oferecidos pelo MD-110
atendem às exigências típicas do dina-
mismo de empresas atualizadas e competiti-
vas, graças à flexibilidade proporcionada
pela mais avançada tecnologia de software.

O completo domínio pela MATEC da
tecnologia do sistema, associado à total fle-
vibilidade e modularidade, assegura sua
permanente atualização, podendo incor-
porar novas facilidades e serviços que ve-
nam a ser requeridos.

Tudo isto é oferecido com absoluta se-
gurança de operação, por ser o sistema
MD-110 inteiramente estabilizado, operan-
do com total confiabilidade em mais de 30
países, onde estão instalados mais de
600 mil ramais.

A assistência técnica - ponto funda-
mental da filosofia MATEC de prestação de

cos de seu Centro de Suporte Técnico em
São Paulo.

A consolidação do MD 110 no Brasil é
fruto de uma iniciativa empresarial dos Gru-
pos Monteiro Aranha e Bradesco asso-
ciando tecnologia de ponta gerada no Brasil
com tecnologia transferida da Ericsson In-
formation Systems para formar a MATEC,
empresa nacional, de capital aberto, inteira-
mente enquadrada na política industrial do
Governo brasileiro.

Parabéns à PETROBRÁS e aos outros
16 contratantes do MD-110 no Brasil, que
contarão com o melhor sistema de telefonia
privada da atualidade e com o padrão de
serviços da MATEC.

MD 110 TIL IIATEC

As caixas de equipamentos das usinas
Anga 2 e 3 estão na Nuclep desde B4

O GLOBO - 19.06.87

ECONOMIA - p. 25

Foto de Antônio Nery

Kissinger, ao lado de Roberto Marinho e Israel Klabin

## Kissinger acha mais fácil renegociar dívida agora

O ex-Secretário de Estado dos Estados Unidos, Henry Kissinger, chegou, ontem ao Rio, às 6h30m, trazendo na bagagem um plano que poderá resolver o impasse da crise das nações endividadas com os países credores. Bem disposto, apesar da hora e do frio, Kissinger não quis de talhar a proposta, mas adiantou que, sem uma revisão do problema, a economia mundial poderá ficar numa encruzilhada.

Ele veio com a mulher, Nancy, para participar do 6º Congresso Mundial de Compras e Administração de Material, na próxima quarta-feira, no Rio, mas antes visita Ouro Preto, uma de suas exigências:

- Nancy faz questão de ir a Ouro Preto; ela adora Minas Gerais.

Kissinger, que é conselhor de alguns bancos credores, jantou ontem com o Ministro Bresser Pereira e almoça com o Presidente

Sarney na segunda-feira. Ele não quis adiantar o teor da conversa, mas disse que o encontro será informal. Evitando defender claramente a ida do Brasil ao FMI, ele disse que a questão é muito mais política do que técnica, e que a renegociação da dívida através do Fundo poderia ser muito útil ao Brasil do ponto de vista económico, embora politicamente desgastante para o Governo.

De qualquer forma, ele acha que, depois do Novo Plano Cruzado, as próximas negociações serão bem mais fáceis, e que o País tem grandes chances de conseguir dinheiro novo.

- O Brasil é importante demais para congelar as relações internacionais — disse.

Ele não conhece detalhes do Plano Bresser mas, mesmo assim, garantiu que está muito otimista em relação ao futuro do País.

## Senador diz que a opinião do ex-Secretário é valiosa

"Kissinger é uma figura de peso. Sua opinião é valiosa. Será ótimo ouvi-lo". Foi assim que o Senador Roberto Campos referiu-se à visita do ex-Secretário de Estado Henry Kissinger ao Brasil. O Senador revelou que Kissinger foi convidado por "industriais e homens de produção porque é sempre interessante ouvi-lo, ainda mais agora, após publicar artigo sobre dívida externa".

Referindo-se ao Brasil como o maior devedor do mundo subdesenvolvido, o Senador ressalhou o interesse do País em conhecer a opinião de Kissinger sobre as questões relativas à negociação da dívida junto aos bancos credores e ao FMI.

Para o Senador, embora Kissinger não faça parte do executivo dos bancos credores, certamente suas opiniões à respeito do País serão ouvidas. E o definiu como um homem original, criador e inovador, enriquecido com a experiência de ter sido

Secretário de Estado numa época crítica da história americana.

Passava das 19h quando Kissinger chegou à casa do empresário Israel Klabin, para se reunir com Ministros de Estado, políticos e grandes empresários brasileiros. Já o aguardavam, na residência da Avenida Níemeyer, o Ministro do Exército, Leónidas Pires Gonçalves, e o cientista político Celso Lafer. Antes das 19h30m chegaram o Deputado Luiz Henrique, e os Senadores Mário Covas, Fernando Henrique Cardoso e José Richa, todos no mesmo carro.

Pouco depois das 20h, chegou o Presidente das Organizações GLOBO, jornalista Roberto Marinho, seguido do Senador RBeto Campos, dos empresários Ermelindo Matarazo, Antônio Carlos de Almeida Braga e Olayo Monteiro de Carvalho, e do Prefeito do Rio, Saturnino Braga.

O GLOBO - 24.06.87

ECONOMIA - p. 21

Kissinger atribui a hostilidade dos credores às atitudes de ex-Ministro

SÃO PAULO — As propostas do ex-Ministro Dilson Funaro não foram bem recebidas pela comunidade financeira internacional porque foram feitas numa situação de confronto. A opinião foi manifestada ontem pelo ex-Secretário de Estado americano Henry Kissinger, durante encontro promovido pela Associação Brasileira de Administração de Material (Abam). Kissinger também defende uma nova postura diante dos credores internacionais, a redução dos spreads até o limite suportável pelos bancos e a criação de um bloco ocidental de mercado comum, com setores localizados, como o da América Latina, por exemplo.

Hoje o ex-Secretário americano está no Rio de Janeiro, onde participa do VI Congresso Mundial de Compras e Administração de Materiais. Ontem ele proferiu palestra sobre “Dívidas do Terceiro Mundo e

Perspectivas para a América Latina”, respondeu perguntas de empresários e concedeu entrevista.

Henry Kissinger analisou a questão da dívida externa e o momento político atual, que considera particularmente delicado, em razão das necessidades por que passam também os Estados Unidos em relação ao déficit interno, aos resultados negativos da sua balança comercial e à pressão da opinião pública em favor de maior protecionismo.

Os bancos credores fizeram reservas contra os prejuízos, explicou Kissinger, e isso significa que não serão a fonte de futuros empréstimos significativos. Daí a proposta que vem dependendo de formação de um fundo internacional, com US$ 30 bilhões anuais, a serem fornecidos pelos bancos, instituições internacionais e países industrializados.

Foto de Silvio Correa

Henry Kissinger defendeu nova postura frente à comunidade internacional

BOLSA / 800 - 29.06.87

ECONOMIA - p. 22

ECONOMIA

Kissinger repete
Kant para apontar
a saída da crise

"As soluções virão por uma série de
crises que não nos deixarão outra saí-
da." As palavras do filósofo alemão
Emanuel Kant foram as escolhidas pelo
ex-secretário de Estado dos Estados
Unidos, Henry Kissinger, para reafirmar
sua inabalável confiança no cresci-
mento econômico do mundo ocidental.
E fizeram parte da conferência sobre
perspectivas para o "Novo Mundo",
com que o atual consultor internacio-
nal (ele é presidente da firma de con-
sultoria Kissinger Associates) abriu o
VI Congresso Mundial de Compras e
Administração de Materiais, realizado
nos dias 24, 25 e 26, no Centro de Con-
venções do Hotel Nacional, no Rio.

Para que sua confiança não seja des-
mentida, porém, ele é o primeiro a re-
conhecer a necessidade da não radi-
calização no que diz respeito à equali-
zação das questões econômicas inter-

Henry Kissinger: tratar a dívida sem esquecer compromisso com o crescimento

nacionais, notadamente quanto à con-
dução das negociações da dívida ex-
terna dos países em desenvolvimento.
As ameaças de inadimplência por parte
dos devedores (ele se referiu em espe-
cial aos da América Latina) bem como
as ameaças de retaliações por parte
dos credores, segundo ele, tendem a le-
var a uma polarização, "impossibili-
tando assim o encontro de uma solu-
ção global e abrangente".

Henry Kissinger adiantou, ao mesmo

tempo, que não considera a capitaliza-
ção dos juros da dívida externa como
parte desta solução. “É preciso que os
países desenvolvidos optem por um
tratamento desta questão (a dívida)
que não seja um ato de caridade, mas
um compromisso com o crescimento
econômico.” E, nesse sentido, ele con-
sidera que a melhor forma seria a de
converter parte da dívida, ou os juros,
em investimentos produtivos nos paí-
ses devedores. Sem um entendimento

que contemple os interesses de um dos
lados e as necessidades do outro, ele
acha difícil que qualquer país em de-
senvolvimento tenha condições de pa-
gar o principal de sua dívida nos próxi-
mos anos.

Tal convicção não é à toa. Até agora,
a maioria dos países endividados tem
saldado seus compromissos interna-
cionais com os dólares conquistados
via exportações de produtos e serviços.
Ora, o próprio Kissinger reconhece que
o déficit público norte-americano é se-
guramente um dos maiores do mundo
— logo os Estados Unidos deverão re-
duzir suas importações e aumentar, ou
pelo menos tentar, as exportações.
Acontece que este país também é o
maior importador mundial, adquirindo
cerca de 60% das exportações de todo
o mundo. Portanto, o conselho de aba-
ter parte da dívida, convertendo-a em
investimento de risco, veio como um
alerta aos países da América Latina.

Minutos antes da palestra do ex-se-
cretário de Estado norte-americano, o
presidente da ABAM (Associação Bra-
sileira de Administração de Material,
que ao lado da IFPMM, a entidade inter-
nacional que reúne os empresários e
profissionais do setor, foi uma das pro-
motoras do evento), José Brancato, fez

questão de sublinhar a importância do
congresso, inclusive a nível das econo-
mias dos países que dele participam.
"Afinal", lembrou, "somente no Brasil o
fluxo de materiais anual (compra e
venda) é da ordem de US$ 70 bilhões.
Ou seja, 70% de nossa dívida externa."

Silvia Thomé

SENHOR / 328 - 30.06.87

POLÍTICA E ECONOMIA

p. 50

POLÍTICA E ECONOMIA

## Milagres de Kissinger

O Brasil de hoje em crise econômica, muito se assemelha ao seu primo rico, os Estados Unidos, na visão do ex-secretário de Estado norte-americano, Henry Kissinger. Este senhor, que há muito tempo não tem mais nada a ver com o governo americano, veio ao Brasil para um período de encontros com empresários, militares e autoridades tendo feito duas conferências no Rio e São Paulo (esta para os sócios da Associação Brasileira de Administração de Material - Abam) pelas quais cobrou US$ 50 mil. Mas passou duas mensagens: na primeira, disse que o mundo credor deveria reeditar a fórmula do Plano Marshall. Na segunda, referiu-se ao que chama de desintegração da economia dos EUA, "devido à divisão pouco equitativa do comércio internacional".

Há um vínculo entre os dois recados do ex-secretário e agora consultor de diversos credores da América Latina a começar pelo Chase Manhattan, da família Rockefeller. Ein entrevista a Senhor durante o VI Congresso Mundial de Compras realizado no Rio, na semana passada, Kissinger buscou demonstrar essa proximidade dos temas. Argumentou que a liberação de new money aos devedores

estancará a proliferação das medias protecionistas - o dinheiro virtual em contrapartida à exigência de uma maior abertura dos portos -, intensificando o fluxo comercial.

O ex-secretário avisou que os EUA, na qualidade de maior devedor liquido do mundo, está em vias de recorrer a um comportamento semelhante ao do Brasil: passar à cata de superávits comerciais para honrar compromissos. O déficit americano alcançará neste ano a cifra de US$ 160 bilhões e Kissinger acredita na necessidade de seu país gerar um saldo na balança de US$ 200 bilhões. "Na defi-

A multiplicação dos dólares

Matsumi Maruo

cada de 50, fornecíamos 50% dos bens manufaturados do Ocidente e hoje essa participação diminuiu para 20%", registra, lembrando que existem pressões internas para recompor os níveis anteriores.

O ex-secretário atribui, portém, aos bancos a tarefa de rever o quadro e construir uma nova ordem econômica. "Eles até aqui se afastaram do problema global e trataram a dívida dos países como uma simples questão de liquidez. Precisam mudar essa mentalidade e encarar os financiamentos liberdados como investimento." Enquanto isso não ocorre, Kissinger acha importante desencadear uma espécie de operação-socorro nos moldes do Plano Marshall - que reconstruiu a Europa após a Segunda Guerra Mundial, afastou o perigo do comunismo e criou uma dívida que nunca foi paga.

Por aí, talvez haja diferença. Sua proposta se basearia na criação de um fundo no valor global de US$ 150 bilhões, distribuído em parcerias anuais de US$ 30 bilhões, com congelados de 6% e prazos longos. Os organismos oficiais como o Bird e FMI arcariam com 25% disso, os bancos privados com 25%. E os governos dos países industrializados com os restantes 50%. O Brasil, no seu entender, poderia ficar com a metade desse empréstimo ou, no mínimo, um terço.

Carlos J. Marques