SR0426 kissinger

DEPT: PG:

United States. Thirteen missiles are report-
ed to be aimed at American cities and
Chinese anti-ship missiles are supposed to
pose a threat to our Navy. But can one seri-
ously believe that China will take on the
United States with thirteen obsolescent liq-
uid-fueled missiles in the face of two thou-
sand American strategic weapons and per-
haps fifteen thousand warheads, not to
speak of the thousands of ship-based war-
heads on cruise missiles and «U.S.?»planes on air-
craft carriers? No doubt, Chinese military
capacity will grow in tandem with its eco-
nomic development. But it will not be a
global military power for at least a quarter
of a century. Given the vast implications of a
confrontation with China, is the United
States so unsure of its capacity to maintain
its supremacy even then/cut? that we must take
preemptive action based on such hypotheti-
cal perspectives?

Little in China's current or even histori-
cal performance justifies such an assump-
tion. China is a responsible conduit in «Asia?» the
Asian [arena] and has shown its interest in
the region's economic and political stability.
It has resisted strong pressures to devalue

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P.9

JUN 16 '98 05:02PM EDITORIAL ADMINISTRATION

SR0426 kissinger

DEPT: PG:

twenty five years from now? What would
victory look like in such a confrontation?
Undoubtedly, if China continues to grow at
the rate of the past twenty years, it will
become perhaps the most powerful country
in Asia. Its impact on its neighbors would
magnify. But do we really want a show-
down now to block what«a destiny that is inherent in China's mere existence?» is inherent in the
existence of China rather than its policies?

It would be an unprecedented principle «objective?» of
American foreign policy to prevent the
emergence of any potential major power.

Such a neo-imperialist course would, soon-«»
er or later, drain our substance by/cut? uniting «unite?»

China with the rest of the world against us.

No country has ever grown indefinitely «at China's current rate?»
at the projected rates without interruption.

And China is not doing so at this moment./cut?

But were China «Beijing?», at whatever juncture, to
pursue hegemonic policies, it would
encounter «have to contend?» around its borders «with?» many states of
considerable strength. «A wise American policy?» Among them, a wise
American policy could forge a determined
resistance «among them?». Which is the better course: to
make Chinese hostility a self-fulfilling
prophecy by the confrontational and
provocative measures now being advocated.

SR0426

P.11

SR0426 kissinger

DEPT:

PG:

ed; or to seek to establish a cooperative pat-
tern at a moment when Chinese leaders
seem uniquely receptive to it?

The wise course«approach?» is to give a constructive
relationship a chance, and to use the
President's trip as an occasion for working
on the substance of such a relationship.

Neither side should act as if the visit itself is
a concession or an opportunity to gain a uni-
lateral advantage.

These principles should guide the
Presidential trip:

(a)«bullet»The United States and China are two
great powers seeking to adjust potential dif-
ferences and to fortify common purposes.

The *purpose and/cut?* test of the meeting is the
ability to harmonize interests and to take
the sting out of disagreements. The key
need*principle?* is reciprocity. A full and candid expla-
nation by each side of its views of the inter-
national situation is an essential component
of this process.

(b)«bullet»High priority must be given to encour-
aging restraint in troubled regions of Asia,
especially in the Korean peninsula and the
Indian subcontinent.

SR0426

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ADMINISTRATION

JUN 16 '98

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DEPT: PG:

common to other Asian countries: capital
allocation on the basis of political, not com-
mercial, criteria; asset inflation, especially
in real estate<ruby>«semicolon?»<rt>«semicolon?»</rt></ruby>, a shaky banking system,<ruby>«semicolon?»<rt>«semicolon?»</rt></ruby> and
huge loss-making state enterprises.

For its part, China needs to do much
more to create an open and free market and
to take effective measures to reduce its
growing trade surplus with America.

(e)<ruby>«bullet»<rt>«bullet»</rt></ruby> China must recognize that human
rights pressures are not generally intended
as instruments of harassment but reflect
America's deepest values and necessities.

No Administration that fails to take account
of this reality can maintain public support.

The President speaks for all Americans
when, with due

regard to the national pride of an ancient
civilization. he affirms these concerns.<ruby>«moved down»<rt>«moved down»</rt></ruby>

(f) For China, Taiwan is the most sensi-
tive issue. It cannot be put aside, and a real-
istic discussion for a peaceful evolution/cut?» is
essential. To China, Taiwan is not a foreign
country but a secessionist province. It must
therefore be handled with great sensitivity.

End of column

Six American Presidents of «from?» both parties

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2512 WORDS

KISSINGER NEWSWEEK ARTICLE 6/16/98

I cannot recall when a President has left on a major foreign trip amidst so much controversy. The right wing of the Republicans and the left wing of the Democrats either oppose the trip [to China] or state conditions for it more compatible with confrontation than with stabilizing, much less improving, the relationship with the world's most populous country and second largest economy.

Republicans see China as a threat; Democrats view it as a laboratory for the spread of American values.

Both view China through the prism of their parties' experiences over the last thirty years.

Republicans rightly see themselves as the party

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that has most consistently attended to American
security in recent decades. Democrats are rightly
proud of their long advocacy of civil and human
rights. But with respect to China, too many in both
parties are substituting nostalgia for careful
analysis of what the national interest requires under
current conditions.

I have often been critical of the foreign policy
of the Clinton Administration, disturbed about its
discomfort with the role power plays in international
affairs - most recently in the calamitous handling of
the Gulf crisis - and with its tendency to conduct
foreign policy as an aspect of domestic politics. But
on the trip to China, the President deserves
bipartisan support. In the present global turmoil,
nothing is to be gained by turning China into an

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enemy; much by exploring potential areas of common interest.

Unfortunately, too many Republicans have fallen into the habit of substituting China for the collapsed Soviet Union and of seeking to deal with it by the methods that accelerated the collapse of the Soviet empire: diplomatic confrontation, economic ostracism and ideological warfare.

Too many Democrats act as if the principal goal of American policy should be to replicate our laboratory for investigating our (institutions and principles in China, even at the cost of the many other interests at stake in the Soviet Union) American relationship and without regard for the complexities of Chinese history.

Each group has raised a number of serious issues.

Chinese proliferation of missile and some nuclear

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technology has been worrisome though less so than that
of countries with which we continue to cultivate
friendly relations, such as Russia. Chinese human
rights practices have often fallen far short of
desirable standards. Clearly, if China continues to
grow at anything like the rate of the past two
decades, it will be in a stronger position to
challenge American interests.

No serious student of history can doubt that the
emergence of China as a world power presents a serious
challenge to American foreign policy. Such a process
has never been smooth, and it will not go away by
railing against it. (Witness the emergence of Germany
in the last century.) It must be in our interest that
China emerge as a responsible member of the
international community with interest in regional and

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global stability and progress.

To be sure, this will not depend on American
actions alone. And if, despite our most serious
efforts to bring about a cooperative relationship,
China should come to pose a direct threat to American
security or seek hegemony in Asia, we must resist
question about a determined foreign policy.
strenuously.

But our ability to sustain such an effort were it
to become necessary, depends on having explored
reasonable, and I believe available, alternatives. It
is an abdication to base America's policy toward China
on the assumption that American actions and policies
cannot affect the evolution of Chinese polices, or
that China is destined to be congenitally hostile to
American interests. Such a course could lead to a
disastrous self-fulfilling prophecy.

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In the five thousand years of its history of independence, China has resisted foreign pressures with extraordinary tenacity and intelligence. Do we really want to turn the world's most populous nation and second largest economy into an enemy at a time when Japan is in economic crisis, South Asia is entering the nuclear age, Indonesia is in turmoil, the Russian evolution is uncertain, the Persian Gulf unsettled, and the Balkans on the brink of war? Should we treat China as an enemy when it has, on the whole, behaved responsibly on most of these issues?

China is strenuously seeking to improve relations with the United States in pursuit of its own interests, notably to sustain its economic reform. In pursuit of that goal, it has been prepared to adjust its policies in many areas.

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On human rights, considerable progress has been made in the years since the death of Mao Ze Dong. But Abuses continue. Are they more likely to be improved by all-out confrontation or by the further integration of China into the international community?

For example, More remains to be done on such issues as nuclear proliferation. Between great powers, a complete confluence of interests is rarely achieved. But do these gaps justify the provocative needling of so many Congressional measures and of some of our public discourse? Why should they not be the subject of a serious diplomatic dialogue? Are we so unsure of ourselves that we assume that we are bound to fail to achieve our objectives *except by force or presence*?

It cannot be an accident that every former President, Secretary of State and National Security

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Adviser - the people with the longest experience in dealing with the nation's foreign policy - reject the confrontational course urged by both the left and right wings of American politics. Nor would any other major power - or, for that matter, any country - join us in such an enterprise.

Before going any further, let me in the interest of full disclosure state that I head a consulting firm that advises a few clients with business interests in China. Anyone who, despite my record of fostering Sino-American relations for nearly three decades - for most of which nobody did any business in China - nevertheless believes that my views are for sale, should stop reading here.

It is important to understand the distinction between the old Soviet Union and today's China. The

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Soviet Union avowed an ideology fundamentally hostile to our values, actively propagated it around the world, and backed it up by supporting Communist revolutionary parties to undermine the domestic cohesion of governments friendly to the United States. Thousands of missiles and tens of thousands of warheads were capable of reaching the United States. And these backed up a foreign policy that directly challenged American interests, occasionally including the threat of force.

None of this has been true of America's relations with China. Though Beijing describes its ideology as Communist, the practice of it bears no similarity to Moscow's Stalinist state-run economy. The economy in China is increasingly market-oriented; Beijing is making strenuous effort to get rid of its state-run

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enterprises; its reform depends crucially on relating
China to the world economy. China supports no
political movement hostile to American interests and,
except for Taiwan, does not challenge the existing
world order. And Taiwan, as will be discussed below,
is a very special case.

Overwrought scenarios sketch an increasing
Chinese military threat to the United States. Thirteen
missiles are reported to be aimed at American cities
and Chinese anti-ship missiles are supposed to pose a
threat to our Navy. But can one seriously believe that
China will take on the United States with thirteen
obsolescent liquid-fueled missiles in the face of two
thousand American strategic weapons and perhaps
fifteen thousand warheads, not to speak of the
thousands of ship-based warheads on cruise missiles

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11

and planes on aircraft carriers? No doubt, Chinese military capacity will grow in tandem with its economic development. But it will not be a global military power for at least a quarter of a century.

Given the vast implications of a confrontation with China, is the United States so unsure of its capacity to maintain its supremacy even then that we must take preemptive action based on such hypothetical perspectives?

Little in China's current or even historical performance justifies such an assumption. China is a responsible conduct in the Asian context and has shown its interest in the region's economic and political stability. It has resisted strong pressures to devalue its currency, has kept its promise not to suppress political expression, including demonstrations

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commemorating Tianamen in Hong Kong, and has supported
the American objective of maintaining stability on the
Korean peninsula.

China has adhered to the Non-Proliferation
Treaty, complete test ban and biological and chemical
conventions. It follows most of the guidelines of the
Missile Control Regime though it is not a signatory
and though the United States has some legitimate
complaints in this area. China has extended some
nuclear help to Pakistan in ways that we disapprove.

But its purpose was not mischief-making, as is often
alleged, but to establish some balance of power on the
Indian subcontinent after the Indians tested nuclear
explosives in 1974. This perhaps unwise policy is not
so different in intention from American direct help to
Britain, indirect help to France and acquiescence in

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the nuclear program of Israel. China has also proposed resumption of talks with Taiwan.

Should all this progress be jettisoned for the sake of preventing what China might do twenty five years from now? What would victory look like in such a confrontation? Undoubtedly, if China continues to grow at the rate of the past twenty years, it will become perhaps the most powerful country in Asia. Its impact on its neighbors would magnify. But do we really want a showdown now to block what is inherent in the existence of China rather than its policies? It would be an unprecedented principle of American foreign policy to prevent the emergence of any potential major power. Such a neo-imperialist course would, sooner or later, drain our substance by uniting China with the rest of the world against us.

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itself is a concession or an opportunity to gain a
unilateral advantage.

(a) The United States and China are two great powers seeking to adjust potential differences and to fortify common purposes. The purpose and test of the meeting is the ability to harmonize interests and to take the sting out of disagreements. The key need is reciprocity. A full and candid explanation by each side of its views of the international situation is an essential component of this process;

(b) High priority must be given to encouraging restraint in troubled regions of Asia, especially in the Korean peninsula and the Indian subcontinent.

The US and China are already pursuing largely

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parallel policies on the Korean peninsula. These
should be strengthened by discussions about attitudes
toward accidents, irrational acts (such as military
offensives) and political upheavals.

With respect to the Indian subcontinent, the US
and China should avoid giving the impression that they
have established a condominium to deprive the two
emerging nuclear powers of their new-found capability.
Rather, they should try to enlist them in a non-
proliferation regime they are themselves practicing.
And they should use their influence to defuse
political tensions between India and Pakistan.

(c) The two sides should strengthen their efforts
to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and missile
technology.

China has already joined a number of the

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international nuclear agreements described above. It
has agreed to stop nuclear and missile cooperation
with Iran. I have reason to believe that it is
possible during the Presidential trip to persuade
Beijing to take further steps, particularly in
developing bilateral arrangements for more stringent
controls over the exports of nuclear, chemical and
biological materials.

(d) The efforts of both countries to calm the
economic crisis in Asia should be coordinated to the
greatest extent possible. This implies as well a full
discussion of trade relations. The presence in
Clinton's entourage of the Secretary of the Treasury
Robert Rubin and the Trade Representative Charlene
Barashefsky should allow a full discussion of issues
of key concern to both countries and the global

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economy. Chinese prosperity and Chinese cooperation
are essential to Asian recovery, or to prevent a
further downward spiral. If the economy of Asia stays
flat, and surely if it declines, the global economy
would risk a world-wide recession.

Secretary Rubin could help allay Chinese concerns
that America opposes Chinese devaluation but
acquiesces to, or even encourages, Japan's, which
threatens to undermine the exports of both China and
Korea. This is a particular problem at a moment when
China is beginning to confront many of the
institutional problems common to other Asian
countries: capital allocation on the basis of
political, not commercial, criteria; asset inflation,
especially in real estate, a shaky banking system, and
huge loss-making state enterprises.

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(e) China must recognize that human rights pressures are not generally intended as instruments of harassment but reflect America's deepest values and necessities. No Administration that fails to take account of this reality can maintain public support.

The President speaks for all Americans when he affirms that these concerns have respect for the national pride of an ancient civilization.

(f) For China, Taiwan is the most sensitive issue. It cannot be put aside, and a realistic discussion for a peaceful evolution is essential. To China, Taiwan is not a foreign country but a

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Six American Presidents of both parties have
affirmed the unity of China and rejected a two-China
or China-Taiwan solution. The same Presidents have
expressed their concern in a peaceful solution of the
issue.

The United States has therefore an implied
obligation to oppose Taiwanese independence or
membership in the UN or its institutions, where they
are based on sovereign states. Within that framework,
constructive and close US-Taiwan relations should be
maintained.

The above agenda defines the President's trip as
an opportunity to point Sino-American relations in a
positive direction. If the journey turns into a

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television opportunity, it is by choice and indeed
against necessity. And for the critics at home, the
time has come to give the relationship a chance before
we throw ourselves, while the world is in crisis, into
a new set of confrontations that guarantee decades of
tensions with an uncertain outcome.

1

2512 WORDS

2

3

Too many Democrats act as if the principal goal
of American policy should be to replicate our
institutions and principles in China, even at the cost
of the many other interests at stake in the Sino-
American relationship and without regard for the
complexities of Chinese history.

4

5

To be sure, this will not depend on American
actions alone. And if, despite our most serious
efforts to bring about a cooperative relationship,
China should come to pose a direct threat to American
security or seek hegemony in Asia, we must resist
strenuously.

6

7

On human rights, considerable progress has been made in the years since the death of Mao Ze Dong. Abuses continue. Are they more likely to be improved by all-out confrontation or by the further integration of China into the international community?

More remains to be done on such issues as nuclear proliferation. Between great powers, a complete confluence of interests is rarely achieved. But do these gaps justify the provocative needling of so many Congressional measures and of some of our public discourse? Why should they not be the subject of a serious diplomatic dialogue? Are we so unsure of ourselves that we assume that we are bound to fail to achieve our objectives in this manner?

8

9

10

11

Little in China's current or even historical performance justifies such an assumption. China is a responsible conduit in the Asian [arena] and has shown its interest in the region's economic and political stability. It has resisted strong pressures to devalue its currency, has kept its promise not to suppress political expression, including demonstrations

12

13

14

No country has ever grown indefinitely at the projected rates without interruption. And China is not doing so at this moment. But were China, at whatever juncture, to pursue hegemonic policies, it would encounter around its borders many states of considerable strength. Among them, a wise American policy could forge a determined resistance. Which is the better course: to make Chinese hostility a self-fulfilling prophecy by the confrontational and provocative measures now being advocated; or to seek to establish a cooperative pattern at a moment when Chinese leaders seem uniquely receptive to it?

The wise course is to give a constructive relationship a chance, and to use the President's trip as an occasion for working on the substance of such a relationship. Neither side should act as if the visit

15

16

17

18

economy. Chinese prosperity and Chinese cooperation are essential to Asian recovery, or to prevent a further downward spiral. If the economy of Asia stays flat, and surely if it declines, the global economy would risk a wold-wide recession.

19

(e) China must recognize that human rights pressures are not generally intended as instruments of harassment but reflect America's deepest values and necessities. No Administration that fails to take account of this reality can maintain public support. The President speaks for all Americans when he affirms these concerns with due regard to the national pride of an ancient civilization.

20

21

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harassment (though sometimes they are) but reflect
No administration that fails & takes account of
America's deepest values and necessities. The
 President speaks for all Americans when he affirms
these concerns. It is still to be hoped that he pays
regard to the ___ of an ancient civilization
recently emerged from a century of humiliation at the
hands of a Western civilization whose claim to an
ultimate morality is therefore not necessarily taken
as much for granted in China as where it originated.

Finally, the President and his party need to
recognize that Taiwan is a neuralgic point. To China,
Taiwan is not a foreign country but a secessionist
province. It must therefore be handled with great
sensitivity.

Six American Presidents of both parties have
affirmed the unity of China, rejected a two-China or