April 13, 1973

REMARKS OF DR. HENRY A. KISSINGER, ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT
FOR NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS
TO THE
FEDERAL CITY CLUB
SHERATON-CARLTON HOTEL

Mr. President, Ladies and Gentlemen: When I handed in my worksheet to Bob Haldeman this morning -- (Laughter) -- I said that I would spend the evening at the club, and you can imagine my shock when I arrived and found so many distinguished members of the Washington Post present. (Laughter) It is not that this Administration is intolerant of criticism; it is, rather, that the Washington Post does not respect the background rules on which I would like to put some of these remarks, because I am certain they will not print tomorrow that I was at the Metropolitan Club. (Laughter) My consolation is that Mrs. Longworth is a very great security blanket, but I wish I could say the same thing for Senator Cooper or Secretary Peterson. (Laughter).

Now, while I have this platform with Secretary Peterson, I want to set at rest the rumors that he left the Administration not entirely voluntarily. As you know, before joining Bell & Howell, Pete had a distinguished career as an advertising executive in Chicago, and a search of the White House records indicates that no member of the Nixon Administration who ever had any connection with an advertising agency has ever been dismissed. (Laughter).

Now, Pete made some unfair comments about my ego. Anyone in my position recognizes the essential necessity of humility. (Laughter). Every evening I pray for guidance and wisdom, and when I am finished, I ask God what I can do for Him. (Laughter).

In addition, I have been recently the recipient of many letters from grade-school students around the country, and they, too, inspire a certain sense of one's limits:

"Dear Mr. Kissinger: My teacher has told me you are a remarkable man and that I should write you. Do you have a dog? If so, please send me his picture." (Laughter)

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Or: "I have read recently that you want to return to Harvard.
Don't do it. School is a drag. I know because I am in school." (Laughter)

But I do not want to make this a conventional speech, and
since I know there are so many newsmen in this group, and that you
are so concerned with the questions of Indochina and so eager to find
out how the deliberations are conducted in the White House, I received
the President's authority to read to you some of the documents we have
received about infiltration on the Ho Chi Minh Trail from the various
agencies--to underline the loneliness of the President.

I would like to begin with the assessment of the Central Intelligence Agency:

"The reader should bear in mind about the parameters of the
matrix that we have very little in the way of direct empirical evidence
of what is getting through. We had our man there hiding under a bush
and counting the bicycles going by. (Laughter). But we had to pull
him out because we needed an extra hand in Santiago. (Laughter).

"Basically, we start with an input assessment reflecting a
conceptual analytical model. The average North Vietnamese is five
feet tall and can carry a hundred pounds on a bicycle. We don't know
how many bicycles they have, but we do know they have a population
of 17 million and the average bicycle per capita figure for developing
countries is 0.74. (Laughter). It is noteworthy that in their latest
recruiting drive, the Hanoi leadership made an intensive effort to
recruit cadres of more than five feet tall; therefore, a substantial
portion of their logistics force may be as tall as five feet six inches.
However, it is not appropriate to extrapolate directly from this that these
cadres are capable of carrying a 10 percent greater load. We flag
this problem as introducing an element of uncertainty.

"Nevertheless, after taking into account the proportion of their
labor force engaged in other activities, such as entertaining Jane Fonda,
we tentatively conclude that they can put in about 10,475.06 tons of
supplies per month at the top of the pipeline.

"However, there is a high attrition factor to be inputted into
this model as the stuff goes down the trail. Anyway, we calculate that
Throughput (T), equals Bicycles Per Capita (BC), times Population (P),
minus Breakage (B-1), Wear and Tear (WT), Misplaced Goods (M),

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Weather Damage (W), and Pilfering (P) by the less disciplined cadre.
For the month of March this comes to about 482 pounds of supplies
getting through. (Laughter).

"The reader may be surprised at this discrepancy, but
our job is capability, not intention. The figure is not based on
empirical data, but on a sophisticated analytical model which involves
no human judgment whatever." (Laughter).

As you ladies and gentlemen know, the NSC procedure makes
it impossible for any one agency, however sophisticated, to prevail
with a single analysis, and therefore, we invited the comments of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff -- (Laughter) -- and their comments were
as follows:

"The JCS has recently taken steps to upgrade our information
data collecting and assessment capabilities. The North Vietnamese
infiltration threat has been assessed by our new Ground Undercover
Numerical Gauge for the Ho Chi Minh Trail, otherwise called 'Oper-
ation Gung-Ho.' Our preliminary, high-confidence estimate assessment
judgment is that a hell of a lot of supplies are getting through. (Laughter).
In many war games, we have proved conclusively that to sustain a level
of shooting requires a sustained level of ammunition.

"The linchpin of the pipeline is two key bridges in Southern Laos.
Each of these bridges has a load capacity of 300 vehicles a day. Some
of the supplies, however, are transported on mules. The JCS are divided
as to whether a mule can be considered a vehicle. (Laughter). The
Army considers that a mule is a vehicle, and this has been traditionally
so in military history. The Air Force considers this laughable, as tests
have shown that you cannot install a radar on a mule. The Navy is
willing to back the mule if it can get Army agreement to appropriations
for the training of a company of dolphins for Naval Intelligence.

"With the caveat of this split decision, the JCS have estimated
that about 25,000 tons a month are being put into the pipeline in North
Vietnam, and that about 30,000 tons a month are entering South Vietnam.
(Laughter). The discrepancy is explained by the well known fact that
Communists are extremely tricky. (Laughter).

"Our action recommendation is a contingency plan for a high-
payoff/low-risk, one-day strike by three aircraft on these two bridges.
System Analysis has commented that it is not necessary to take out
both bridges completely; in fact, the destruction of 1-1/2 bridges would

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serve the purpose equally well. This would require only 2-1/2 aircraft instead of three --(Laughter) -- and would, therefore, be more cost-effective. The JCS have rejected this assessment because the Services cannot agree on which end of the bridge to hit." (Laughter)

Now, we then invited the State Department to comment, but we received only a very brief note which said that the State Department paper is still in the process of being cleared, but as an interim recommendation, the Department proposes setting up an American Consulate in Hanoi. The Department has in reserve a couple of young Foreign Service Officers who have undergone extensive training in infiltration logistics and who will count the number of trucks going by the Consulate (Laughter). This way we can eliminate the need for a CIA man in the jungle and strengthen the authority of the Foreign Service.

In addition, there was a memorandum from the National Security Adviser of very great profundity and complexity, but since part of it is still in the process of being translated -- (Laughter) -- and since we have not yet placed all the verbs into the text, I will not impose it on this audience. (Laughter).

Now, let me make a few serious remarks.

This award means a great deal to me at this time when I hope we are moving steadily away from war. I particularly appreciate it from a group many of whose members I have the impression have shown less than full agreement with the Administration.

For years, one of the staples of our political debate has been that with the end of the war in Vietnam, we could restore our priorities and recover our unity. But the end of the war has shown that the combatants have been rather reluctant to leave the trenches; that the habit of confrontation had proved more difficult to overcome than was

Some day, I suspect sooner than we think, many of our present debates will be forgotten or seem irrelevant, but some of the deepest scars of recent years will linger.

As a nation, we have been shaken by the realization of our fallibility, and it has been painful to grasp that we are no longer pristine, if we ever were. Later than any nation, we have come to the recognition of our limits. In coming to a recognition of our limits,

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we have achieved one of the definitions of mutuality, but the danger is
that we will learn that lesson too well; that instead of a recognition
that we cannot do everything, we will fall into the illusion that we
cannot do anything.

Nothing is more urgent right now than a serious and com-
passionate debate of where we are going, because if we lose the
capacity for great conception, we can be administered but not governed.
I first saw government at a high level over a decade ago, at a time which
is now occasionally debunked as overly brash, excessively optimistic,
even somewhat arrogant. Some of these criticisms are justified, but
a spirit prevailed then which was quintessentially American; that
problems are a challenge, not an alibi; that men are measured not
only by their success, but also by their striving; that it is better to
aim grandly than to wallow in mediocre comfort. Above all, the
Administration then in office, and its opponents, thought of themselves
engaged in a common enterprise, not in a permanent, irreconcilable
contest.

At a time which history will surely mark as one of the great
revolutions, the world continues to need our idealism and our purpose,
and in this respect the spirit of the early 60s was more nearly right
than some of the present attitudes.

In the 1920s, we were isolationists because we thought we
were too good for this world. We are now in danger of withdrawing
from the world because we believe we are not good enough for it. The
result is the same, and the consequences would be similar. So it is
time to end our own civil war.

To be sure, we should leaven our optimism with a sense of
tragedy, and temper our idealism with humility and realism. But
we have had enough of the liturgies of debate, and what we need most
is the unity of which Senator Cooper spoke, which is the prerequisite
for mastering the future and overcoming the past.

Thank you very much.

####?

[L]

APRIL 13, 1973

REMARKS OF PETER G. PETERSON
TO THE
FEDERAL CITY CLUB

SHERATON-CARLTON HOTEL

Charlie, for a brief second I contemplated not saying anything this evening, but the thought of Kissinger dominating this podium was more than my tender, if bruised ego could manage to handle. (Laughter)

I have been told by some astute observers -- which is a euphemism in Washington for critic -- that all of my comments should be entitled "How to be more like me." Well, tonight I am going to break a lifelong habit of self-adulation and I am going to explore the very unfamiliar ground of talking about somebody else, which is a way of saying my comments will be about my colleagues, and they will be very brief. (Laughter)

First, John Sherman Cooper. In thinking about you, John, the first thing that comes to my mind is Lorraine Cooper. Lorraine has graced this city with an elegance and intelligence that I hope we will continue to enjoy, Lorraine.

But in thinking about you, John, I have tried to think of a story that might capture your essence, and I can only do it by telling you a story that is remarkably inappropriate for John Sherman Cooper because it is about duplicity in politicians, which is perhaps another redundancy. (Laughter)

I was in England recently, and I asked someone there about Harold Wilson. The response was, "There are two things about Harold Wilson that I do not like." I said, "Gee, from your tone, I would have guessed that there were many more things than two." He said, "No, there are only two things about Harold Wilson I don't like."

I said, "Would you mind telling me what the two things are?" and the response was, "His face." (Laughter)

I think John Cooper, with his intent for that elusive thing we call the truth, and his unmatched integrity in persuading others at certain decisive times in our history of its importance, has made him the indispensable man.

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However, I think, John, you and I do share a problem in common. From my business days back at Bell & Howell, I have had a problem with a friend who John and I share in common, Chuck Percy. Now, for years, wherever I have gone, people would say, "Oh, you are Percy's successor at Bell & Howell, aren't you?" and for years I have had a fantasy that someone would greet Percy by saying, "Oh, you are Peterson's predecessor, aren't you?"

Well, I think John Cooper is going to have a similar problem. He may become known as the successor of another Kentucky colleague, Henry Clay. He will become known as Henry Clay's successor, in my opinion. Now, I don't know, John, how you feel about Henry Clay. I hope you feel about him as I do. But in any event, you won't have my problem in this regard. You don't have to look at newspaper pictures of Henry Clay water skiing off of Miami Beach on one foot. (Laughter)

A few words about my friend, and that extraordinary human being, Mrs. "L."

Mrs. "L.", I think you have been liberated longer than any woman or man whom I know. Now, if I can add another euphemism to the glossary of Federal employment terminology, some of us who have been liberated more recently just have to be impressed with your kind of tenure, particularly in Washington. But you know that about Mrs. "L."

What you may not know about Mrs. "L." is that she is liberated in more ways than you may think, and I would like to tell you two very brief anecdotes about her.

One of the first times I met her -- you may remember, Mrs. "L."; you were sitting in a living room with your legs wrapped around your neck, Yoga style. Now, I don't know about you, but as far as I can get my feet is in my mouth, and I have been accused of only opening my mouth to change feet. (Laughter)

So I was terribly impressed with Mrs. "L." and I wondered what she would do for an encore, at which point she unwrapped herself and proceeded to wrap a 6-foot boa constrictor around her neck. Now, you don't hardly see that act any more. (Laughter)