THE NATIONAL WAR COLLEGE

WASHINGTON 25, D. C.

Return Address

After 20 June:
Director, Senior Course
Foreign Service Institute

17 June 1958

Department of State
Washington, 25, D.C.

Dr. Henry A. Kissinger

Special Projects Director, Rockefeller Brothers Fund
22 W. 55 th St.
New York, New York.

Dear Dr. Kissinger:

As a member of the audience that benefitted last winter from
your very stimulating lecture delivered here at the National War College, I want
at this rather late date to tell you that throughout the year's work, the
students here referred frequently to the points made in your talk. It was most
impressive.

Pending Congressional appropriations, the State Department, through
its Foreign Service Institute, plans next fall, a Senior Course for Advanced
Foreign Service officers, Classes one and two, ages in the middle forties. I am
to direct the course. I wondered if your plans are as yet set for the forthcoming
academic year, i.e. September 15, 1958-June 15, 1959, and whether you would be in
Washington from time to time during that period? Would you be willing to speak,
or to conduct a lecture-seminar with the 20 members of the advanced course? What
(alternatives)
dates/ would be convenient to you, and what subjects would you be most interested
in presenting?

May I ask if you could be so kind as to have your secretary put
in the mail for me the Special Studies Project 4 publication "Challenge to America",
and the recent report on Foreign and International Trade? If a list of the Project's
publications could be sent, as well, I could establish a more business-like method
of equipping the advanced course with current and important publications, as these
two appear to be.

Director, Department of Political Affairs

USS OFFICIAL COMMUNICATIONS TO
THE SECRETARY OF STATE
WASHINGTON 25, D. C.

DEPARTMENT OF STATE
WASHINGTON

July 8, 1958

My dear Dr. Leach:

In September of this year a new Senior Officer Course for Foreign Service Officers of classes 1, 2 and 3 will be started at the Foreign Service Institute for the first time. I am to be the Director of the advanced officer course.

I have read with great interest some mimeographed material telling about the Defense Policy Seminar at Harvard, but the report that I have is very scanty and dates back to 1955. I would be most grateful, therefore, if you would feel able to send to me any outlines or syllabi which may have been prepared for the use of the students or faculty at the Seminar. If, as I understand it, there is more material on the general Defense Studies Program, I would be especially grateful for similar data regarding that program. For example, would it be permissible for me to see one memorandum describing the experiments conducted with students, or the subjects or methods used by visiting lecturers or seminar leaders?

I do not wish to request more documents or outlines than you feel proper to disclose or loan, but the exigency of preparing for the opening of the new course following the waiting required until Congressional appropriation was decided, have left us here at the Institute with a very short time for preparation. If perhaps there are documents or outlines of the Seminar, or a syllabus which is needed and used in your office but which could be temporarily loaned to me, I would be very careful to get back to your hands at whatever date you specify.

The Senior Officer Course will have in addition to the 10 Foreign Service Officers, one designation each from Army, Navy, Marine Corps and the Air Force and another quartet from other government agencies: the total membership of the course, therefore, will be 18 individuals.

With much appreciation for any assistance or comments which you may be able to offer, I am

Dr. W. B. Leach,
Director, Defense Policy Seminar,
2 Divinity Avenue,
Cambridge 38, Massachusetts.

August 18, 1958

Mr. Willard F. Barber
Director, Senior Officer Course
Foreign Service Institute, Dept. of State
Washington, D.C.

Dear Mr. Barber:

Thank you very much for your
letter of August 5th.

It seems that the morning of
October 24th would be the best time
for my talk, and I will plan on being
with you then. Although I am no good
at thinking of titles, I would like to
deal with the military-political effects
of the nuclear revolution in warfare.

With kind regards.

Henry V. Krauger

With kind regards.

of the unclear revolution in war-time
dest with the military-political effects
of thinking of titles. I would like to
with you then. Although I am no good
for my talk, and I will plan on being
October 5th would be the best time
If seems that the morning of

letter of Vngmat 24th.

Thank you very much for your

Dear Mr. Barber:

Washington, D.C.
Foreign Service Institute, Dept. of State
Director, Senior Officer Counsel
Mr. William H. Barber

Vngmat 19, 1958

September 8, 1958

Dear Mr. Barber:

Following my letter of August 18th, it appears now that the afternoon of October 24th would work better than the morning. Can this be worked out?

Also, I would appreciate some more specific information about the kind of talk that is most suitable for your group, the length of the presentation, and similar matters.

Kind regards.

ADDRESS OFFICIAL COMMUNICATIONS TO
THE SECRETARY OF STATE
WASHINGTON 25, D. C.

September 12, 1958

Dear Professor Kissinger:

With reference to your letter of September 8, addressed to Mr. Barber, there is no problem in scheduling your appearance at the Senior Officers' Course for the afternoon of October 24 instead of the morning. Would it be convenient to plan to start the afternoon session at 2:00 p.m. on that day?

With respect to the kind of talk that is suitable for our group, if it would be agreeable to you, we should like to have a number of invited guests from within the Foreign Service Institute and the Department of State, which would approximately double the number of the group. In that case, I should think you might plan a talk of perhaps 45 minutes, following which we could withdraw to our seminar room for a discussion limited to the 19 members of the class.

In planning your presentation, you may assume a high level of academic background, operational experience, and sophistication on the part of the class. In the discussion we should hope to have an exchange of views and a testing of ideas rather than a question-and-answer session. We plan that the atmosphere will be one of complete intellectual freedom and that discussion will be on the basis of full candor and without reserve, as befits a group as mature and seasoned as ours.

I should appreciate your kindness in letting me know the precise hour and means of your arrival so that we may arrange to have you met and escorted to the Foreign Service Institute.

Dr. Henry A. Kissinger,
Harvard University,
Center for International Affairs,
Littauer Center,
Cambridge 38, Massachusetts.

[LC]

DEPARTMENT OF STATE
FOR THE PRESS

SEPTEMBER 22, 1958

NO. 547

Secretary of State Dulles today officially inaugurated a new advanced course for Senior Officers of the Department of State at the Foreign Service Institute.

The Senior Officer Course represents a further step by the Department to carry out recommendations for improving the training of career Foreign Service officers made in 1954 by the Public Committee on State Department Personnel, chaired by Dr. Henry Wriston, then President of Brown University. The House Committee on Foreign Affairs earlier had recommended that the Foreign Service Institute "provide adequate in-service training for Foreign Service Officers as well as for other officers and employees of the Service similar to that provided for Army and Navy officers in the command schools, and the Army and Navy War Colleges".

Inauguration of this Course completes a cycle of specialized training provided for officers beginning at junior grade through mid-career on to the policy-making level.

The Senior Officer Course will be the most advanced program in the field of international relations and foreign policy offered by the Department of State. Participation in the course this year is limited to twenty individuals comprising carefully-selected senior officers of the Foreign Service, with a small number of spaces for officers of equivalent rank from those other agencies of the Government particularly involved in different aspects of U.S. foreign policy. The course will continue through June 1959.

The purpose of the course is to prepare officers for the highest positions of responsibility in policy, recommendation and execution, coordination, planning and administration in the Department, in diplomatic posts abroad, and in interagency and international organizations.

Mr. Harold B. Hoskins, Director of the Foreign Service Institute, announced that the Institute will call upon outstanding representatives of United States Government, industry and labor as well as academic specialists to participate in directing seminar studies and discussions. Special library and other facilities have been installed at the Institute to carry out the objectives of the Senior Officer program. The course is under the supervision of Mr. Willard F. Barber, a career Foreign Service Officer of Class One.

The course will include study of the following subjects:

1. The Bases for American Foreign Policy.

2. Domestic Influences on U.S. Foreign Policy.

3. Review

October 8, 1958

Mr. Williard F. Barber, Director
Senior Officers' Course
Foreign Service Institute
Department of State
Washington, D.C.

Dear Mr. Barber:

This letter is to confirm the
telephone conversation that you had with
my secretary. I am now scheduled to
appear before the Senior Officers' Course
at 2 PM on November 17.

I will be in Washington on the
morning of the 17th, addressing the National
War College. I would appreciate it if you
called contacted Colonel John E. Keating who is
arranging my speech at the National War
College so that transportation can be
arranged for me from the War College to
Arlington Towers.

I am looking forward to speaking
to the members of the Senior Officers'
Course.

October 23, 1958

Dear Dr. Kissinger:

In preparation for your visit to the Senior Officers' Course
on November 25, would you be so kind as to send us a biographical
sketch for use in our syllabus?

Thank you very much.

Dr. Henry A. Kissinger,
Center for International Affairs,
Harvard University,
6 Divinity Avenue,
Cambridge 38 Massachusetts.

July 9, 1959

Dear Mr. Kissinger:

The Senior Officers' Course, before which you appeared on November 17, completed its first year with a flourish on June 12 when President Eisenhower attended our graduation. Naturally we were pleased by this recognition of our success-though I hasten to add that our success was due in large measure to the fine collaboration which we received from you and others in the academic world. In planning our curriculum and schedule for the 1959/60 course, I am wondering if you would join us again on Friday, November 13, and present the topic "Nuclear Power and Political Intimidation". The content of the topic is, I think, fairly clear from its title. In order to put it in context, I am listing below the other topics in this series:

1. The Nation-State.

2. Nationalism.

3. Bases of International Relations: International Law.

4. Bases of International Relations: Economic Determinism.

5. Bases of International Relations: Geography and Geopolitics.

6. Bases of International Relations: National Military Power.

7. The Role of Military Force in the Achievement of National Objectives.

8. Nuclear Power and Political Intimidation.

9. Comparative Political and Economic Ideologies.

10. Rival Political Forms.

We do not wish to define the topic too closely in order to allow
you full freedom.

As part of our technique is to have our participants do some pertinent reading prior to your appearance, it would be appreciated if you would send me some suggested reading references at your earliest convenience.

I sincerely hope that you will be able to accommodate us again and
I am looking forward to hearing from you. With best regards.

Foreign Service Institute

Mr. Henry Kissinger,
Harvard University,
Cambridge 38, Massachusetts.

July 21, 1959

Mr. John P. Hoover
Senior Officers' Course
Foreign Service Institute
Department of State
Washington, D.C.

Dear Mr. Hoover:

It was nice to talk to you this morning. As I indicated, November 13th looks as if it will be a good date at this point. I would therefore like to accept with the proviso that I may have to change the date some time in the next few weeks, although this is not likely. I always enjoy my visits to the Senior Officers' Course and will look forward to being with you.

Kind regards.

["METHOD OF OR ABSENCE OF ADVERTISING", "METHOD OF ADVERTISING", "1. Advertising in newspapers Yes ☐ No ☑", "2. (a) Advertising by circular letters sent to _______________ dealers.", "(b) And by notices posted in public places Yes ☐ No ☑", "(If notices were not posted in addition to advertising by circular letters sent to dealers, explanation of such omission must be made below.)", "ABSENCE OF ADVERTISING", "3. Without advertising, under an exigency of the service which existed prior to the order and would not admit of the delay incident to advertising.", "4. Without advertising in accordance with ....................

The Foreign Service Institute will be able to offer you
$121.00, inclusive of expenses and honorarium.

With all best regards,

Enclosure:

Syllabus.

Biographic Data on Speaker:

Born: Honesdale, Pa., August 29, 1899

Education: B.S., US Military Academy, 1920; Graduate, Coast
Arty. School, basic course, 1921; Battery Officers course,
1931; Command & General Staff School, 1936; Army War
College, 1940

Commnd 2nd lt., 1920, advanced through the ranks to gen., 1955

Instructor, US Military Acad., 1926-30, 1934-35

Member, General Staff Corps, 1941-42

Comdg. gen. 34 A.A. Brig., Norfolk and England, 1942

Asst. chief of staff, G-3, Allied Force HQ, London and Algiers
for North African Campaign, 1942

Dep. Chief of Staff, Fifth Army, 1934

Dep. Chief of gen. staff, 15th Army Group, 1943-44

Dep. Chief of Staff, Allied Force Hq., 1945

Army member, Joint Strategic Survey Comm., 1946-47

Deputy commandant, National War College, 1947-49

Dir., Foreign Mil. Assistance, Dept. of Defense, 1949-50

Commanding Gen., 11th Airborne Div., 1951

7th Inf., Div. in Korea, 1951-52

Dep. Chief of Staff for Plans & Research, Dept. of Army, 1953-55

Com. Gen., Army Forces, Far East and 8th US Army in Japan and
Korea, 1955

Commander-in-Chief, Far East Command Comdr.-in-Chief, UN Command
and Gov. Ryuku Islands 1955-57

Army Vice Chief of Staff 1957-59; Chief of Staff, 1959

13 November 1959 - 9:00 a.m.

Chairman of the Day - Mr. John J. Slocum

Rapporteur - Mr. Edmund H. Kellogg

I. Summary of nuclear Weapons Systems

II. Impact of nuclear weapons on tactics and strategy

III. Major dilemmas in the employment of military force in support
of national policy

Readings:

*Kissinger, Henry A. - Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy

+Kissinger, Henry A. - "The Policy-Maker and the Intellectual"
reprint from the Reporter

+Kissinger, Henry A. - "Missiles and the Western Alliance" -
Foreign Affairs, April, 1958

Suggested Readings:

*Acheson, Dean G. - *Power and Diplomacy*, Chap. 2

+Donnelly, Charles H. - "Current Strategic Thinking as to Future Wars"

*Kennan, George F. - *Russia, the Atom and the West*, Chap. 4

Biographic Data on Speaker:

Born: May 27, 1923

Education: A.B., M.A. Ph.D., Harvard University

Military Service: USA, CIC, 1943-46; Capt. Military Intelligence
Reserve at present

Instructor, Department of Government, Harvard, 1954-55

Executive Director, Harvard International Seminar, 1951-

Study Director, Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy, Council on
Foreign Relations, 1955-56

Director, Special Studies Project, Rockefeller Brothers Fund, 1956-58

Director, Defense Studies Program, Harvard University, 1958

Associate Director, Center for International Affairs, and Lecturer
in Government, Harvard, 1957

Consultant to the Operations Research Office, 1950

Publications: *Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy, 1957; A World
Restored: Oastlereagh, Metternich and the Restoration
of Peace, 1812-1822*

+Available from Mrs. Myers

*Available in Library

19 November 1959

STATE: RD - Washington, D.C.

2 June 1960

Dear Professor Kissinger:

This confirms our invitation to you to talk with the Senior
Seminar in Foreign Policy (formerly the "Senior Officers' Course")
the morning of Monday, 31 October 1960, from 9:00 a.m. until noon.

The topic is "Limited War", and our method will not be changed
from what you have experienced during the past two years. You will
recall that you spoke for about forty minutes opening up the subject
and that the balance of the time was devoted to discussion.

The size and composition of the class will be about the same
as last year. There will be a dozen from the upper ranks of the
Foreign Service, a Department of State civil service officer, a
Navy captain, colonels from the Army, Air Force and Marine Corps,
and representatives from the US Information Agency, the International
Cooperation Administration, the Central Intelligence Agency, and
the Foreign Agricultural Service. The total will be approximately
twenty.

I am enclosing a copy of the syllabus we issued for your talk
last year, and would appreciate receiving from you any changes or
modifications you might wish to suggest.

Mr. Charles P. O'Donnell has succeeded Mr. Willard Barber in the
direction of the Seminar. By the time the 31st of October is
reached, I will have gone to another post abroad. I shall regret
not being able to greet you again, but am confident the new class
will enjoy and benefit from the privilege of hearing and talking with
you. As you know, the class is accustomed to take the speaker to
lunch following the seminar, and we hope you will be free to accept
their invitation.

Professor Henry Kissinger,
Harvard University,
Cambridge 38, Massachusetts.

29 September 1960

Dear Professor Kissinger:

The members of the Senior Seminar are looking forward with great interest to their discussion of "Limited War" with you on 1 November 1960 at 10:00 a.m.

Basic to our system is the requirement that the members of the group prior to meeting with a speaker shall have read and discussed among themselves certain assigned readings on the subject of the day. To this end a syllabus sheet is issued to the group as long in advance of a scheduled meeting as possible, listing the required readings and also additional suggested readings for those wishing to penetrate more deeply into a particular subject. We would like if possible to have the speaker himself draw up both the required list and the suggested list of readings. The required list may be as brief as he wishes but should not perhaps exceed two hundred pages as it is unlikely that the group as a whole, in view of their other commitments, will be able on an average to digest more than this amount in preparation for a single talk. Where books, as distinguished from articles, are being recommended, it would be desirable whenever appropriate to have the more important chapters specified.

I would therefore be most grateful to you if you would in the near future draw up and forward to me the desired lists so that I may issue the syllabus sheet pertaining to your talk.

Looking forward with pleasure to your visit, I am

October 24, 1960

Mr. James M. Byrne
Deputy Coordinator
Senior Seminar in Foreign Policy
Foreign Service Institute
Department of State
Washington, D.C.

Dear Mr. Byrne:

I am sorry not to have replied to your letter of
September 29th before this, but I had just returned from Japan
when it arrived, and have been trying to meet a publisher's
deadline since then. I hope that the enclosed list of readings
on the subject of "limited war" will not have arrived too
late to be useful, and look forward very much to meeting with
your group on November 1st at 10:00 a.m.

All good wishes.

P.S. I will be staying in Washington at the home of Mr. Fritz Kraemer, 4319 Fessenden Street NW, and would be grateful if you would arrange to have me picked up there on the morning of the 1st.

morning of the last.

If you would arrange to have me picked up there on the
Kraemer, 4319 Reesenden Street NW, and would be grateful
B.S. I will be staying in Washington at the home of Mr. Frits

Henry V. Kieatinger

VII Good wishes.

Your Grosh on November 1st at 10:00 a.m.
to be neatful, and look forward very much to meeting with
on the subject of "limited war," will not have arrived too
deadline since then. I hope that the enclosed list of readings
when it arrived, and have been trying to meet a humpbacker's
September 29th before this, put I had just returned from Japan
I am sorry not to have replied to your letter of

Dear Mr. Byrne:

Washington, D.C.
Department of State
Foreign Service Institute
Senior Seminar in Foreign Policy
Deputy Coordinator
Mr. James M. Byrne

October 24, 1960

November 10, 1960

Dear Mr. Byrne:

Here is a list of my expenses connected
with my visit to the Foreign Service Institute on
November 1st: (I did not stay at a hotel.)

Round-trip air fare, Boston-Washington      $64.46
Taxis                                        10.00
                                              -----
                                              74.46

May I also at this time tell you how
much I enjoyed meeting with the group this year,
and to thank you for arranging it.

All good wishes.

July 31, 1961

Dear Professor Kissinger:

Your appearances before the Senior Seminar in Foreign Policy in previous years have always been among the very most fruitful occasions of the entire course. We would be bitterly disappointed if for some reason your schedule prevented you from meeting with us once again.

The date I would propose this year is Tuesday, November 28 at 9:30 a.m. and the subject "The Strategy of Deterrence" in both the nuclear and limited war context. If the date is inconvenient, we would try to re-arrange our schedule.

The composition of this year's group will be very similar to that of last year. I am enclosing a list of the members with brief biographies in case any of them may be old friends of yours.

The method followed will be the same as in previous years. You will recall that you spoke for about three quarters of an hour or so and the rest of the time was given over to questions from the floor and discussion.

The group will have done considerable reading in this field including in most cases both your recent books.

After the meeting, a few of the members will want to take you out for lunch if you are free and not too pressed for time.

In accordance with regulations, reimbursement is calculated, as in previous years, on the basis of travel costs and a per diem allowance plus an honorarium of $50.00. On the assumption that you will be traveling from Cambridge, the total reimbursement is expected to amount to $129.00.

Professor Henry A. Kissinger,
Harvard University,
Center for International Affairs,
6 Divinity Avenue,
Cambridge 38, Massachusetts.

["METHOD OF OR ABSENCE OF ADVERTISING", "METHOD OF ADVERTISING", "1. Advertising in newspapers Yes ☐ No ☐", "2. (a) Advertising by circular letters sent to _______________ dealers.", "(b) And by notices posted in public places Yes ☐ No ☐", "(If notices were not posted in addition to advertising by circular letters sent to dealers, explanation of such omission must be made below.)", "ABSENCE OF ADVERTISING", "3. Without advertising, under an exigency of the service which existed prior to the order and would not admit of the delay incident to advertising.", "4. Without advertising in accordance with ....................

April 27, 1962

Dear Professor Kissinger:

We should count it a privilege if you would come and talk to the Fifth Session of the Senior Seminar in Foreign Policy, Foreign Service Institute, Department of State, on the subject of "The Strategy of Deterrence," at 9:30 A.M., Tuesday, November 13, 1962. The lecture which we hope you will consent to give us is in the third segment of the year's work of the Seminar (Note paragraph 3 under "Course Content" on the obverse of attached enclosure No. 1), and I should value it greatly if the Fifth Session of the Seminar could have the benefit of your knowledge and experience of this subject just as the Fourth Session has had this year.

As you know, the Senior Seminar is the most advanced training program in international relations and foreign policy offered by the Department of State. The Fifth Session will be held for a group to consist of up to 25 or 26 persons. The majority of these will be from upper ranks of the Foreign Service, and the remainder will include military officers and civilians of comparable standing from the armed services and various of the civilian agencies of our government who are concerned with the State Department in the substance of foreign affairs. The participants in the Seminar will, as in the past, have been selected on the basis of excellence of performance and of their potential to reach positions of leadership in their respective services. Their age on the average lies in the mid-40's and their average length of service in the neighborhood of 20 years. I believe that you will find the members of the group both perceptive and articulate.

You are familiar with our method of conducting our daily work: it is primarily that of a seminar preceded by a prepared talk. We have it in mind that your talk would be an informal presentation of about an hour's length in which you would set the stage for the discussion period to last the rest of the morning. It would give us pleasure if you would be able to accept an invitation for lunch the day of your lecture with some of the members.

Professor Henry A. Kissinger,
Center for International Affairs,
Harvard University,
6 Divinity Avenue,
Cambridge 38, Massachusetts.

One of the members will act as chairman and will be responsible
for coordinating questions from the floor; another of the members will
act as rapporteur. Remarks made by a speaker at the Seminar are con-
sidered privileged and, therefore, are not for quotation or attribution.

The group will have been assigned readings in preparation for the
talk and will have had their attention directed to your recent books.
Would you like to suggest any supplementary reading matter that seems
to you particularly timely and pertinent? And could you furnish me
with a 3- or 4-topic-sentence skeletal outline of your prepared
informal remarks that I could circulate among the group prior to your
talk.

The Seminar is being held at the Foreign Service Institute,
located in Arlington Towers, 1018 Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, Virginia.
A plan of the area of the Institute, showing the location of the
Seminar, is attached as enclosure No. 2.

The Institute at present pays a lecture-fee to guest lecturers of
$50.00 for each half-day lecture, plus per diem and transportation
costs. After receiving word from you that you can accept our invitation,
which I hope to have from you soon, I shall again write to you subse-
quent to July 1, the beginning of the government's fiscal year, confirm-
ing the financial arrangements.

I hope very much that you will be able to come and lecture to us
as you did this year, for both the matter and the lecturer are high
points for us! If you should like to communicate with me by telephone,
I can be reached at Dudley 3-2833.

Enclosures:

1. Description and Outline.

2. Map.

May 7, 1962

Dear Dr. Kissinger:

I am delighted indeed to learn from your letter of May 4 that you will be able to come and talk to the Senior Seminar in Foreign Policy at 9:30 A.M. on Tuesday, November 13, on "The Strategy of Deterrence." If you could spare the time afterwards, I hope you will give us the pleasure of your company at lunch.

When you find time for it, would you please send me a 3- or 4-topic-sentence skeletal outline of your prepared informal remarks that I could circulate among the group prior to your talk.

["METHOD OF OR ABSENCE OF ADVERTISING", "METHOD OF ADVERTISING", "1. Advertising in newspapers Yes ☐ No ☑", "2. (a) Advertising by circular letters sent to _______________ dealers.", "(b) And by notices posted in public places Yes ☐ No ☑", "(If notices were not posted in addition to advertising by circular letters sent to dealers, explanation of such omission must be made below.)", "ABSENCE OF ADVERTISING", "3. Without advertising, under an exigency of the service which existed prior to the order and would not admit of the delay incident to advertising.", "4. Without advertising in accordance with ______________________

FIFTH SENIOR SEMINAR IN FOREIGN POLICY
Rapporteur Report
NUCLEAR DETERRENCE AND THE BALANCE OF TERROR

Prof. Henry A. Kissinger

November 13, 1962

Professor Kissinger introduced himself as a man whose public image leaves something to be desired; each year he is invited to appear before a prominent peace group as an example of human depravity. He also identified himself as a deeply-treaded consultant to several Washington agencies - he suspects possibly for the same reason, since his advice is invariably ignored.

A strategy of deterrence covers a multitude of sins since it must cover the spectrum of military and political considerations. The formulation of an adequate strategy, moreover, is complicated by the rapidity and rate of technological change and the novelty of weapons. Further, tolerance for new strategic concepts is inhibited by the success of the standing concept, which, since it has never been challenged, must be considered successful. There is, thus, a predilection to continue the *status quo* to the detriment of new concepts and new technology more applicable to the rapidly shifting technical - as well as political - environment.

Three major hurdles confront the development and acceptance of an optimum strategy:

1. The technical hurdle noted above.

2. The lack of consensus among military planners on nuclear strategy.

3. The complexity of the technology which increasingly limits understanding to the technicians directly involved. Policy planners have neither the time nor the background to fully understand the implications of rapidly shifting technical developments.

There are further limits to an optimum strategy. For example, the President would not likely accept a strategy that envisages only an 80 to 90 percent probability of destroying up to 95 percent of the enemy's counterforce capability, particularly as the gross number of weapons involved increases during the 1960's.

A principal ingredient of any strategy is the image of net capabilities one wishes to transmit to the enemy. For maximum deterrence, does one attempt to convince the opponent that he faces absolute superiority of force? This may well result in the rapid increase in the enemy's capabilities and his adoption of a mirror-image of our counterforce strategy.

Dr. Kissinger indicated that these were only some of the problems faced by the architects of our nuclear strategy. Quite patently, our diplomatic posture has lagged behind our military posture in the strategic nuclear field and in the approaching era of mutual nuclear deterrence, an increasing responsibility must be assumed by diplomacy to enforce our strategic objectives. Will the diplomats choose to

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[L/C]

exploit our capabilities for general war to keep the Soviet Union in line? As time goes on, it becomes more difficult to demonstrate any increase in our state of readiness and the military faces a decreasing capability to demonstrate that we are getting more "itchy". The diplomats, therefore, must assume this task, resisting the temptation to show how rational we are, which, in crisis situations, can only serve to reduce the credibility of our counterforce strategy. The principal challenge for diplomacy in the future will be the "management" of crises.

Dr. Kissinger sketched the history of our nuclear strategy over the past decade. In the early 1950's, we followed the doctrine of Massive Retaliation which was, of course, based on our atomic monopoly. This strategy had the effect of turning all of our alliances into a projection of the Monroe Doctrine, since our nuclear capability became the protective weapons for all. In an attempt to reduce the prevailing area of doubt concerning our intention to commit our weapon to their defense in all crises, the European nations built up local NATO defense forces. These, however, were not meant to substitute for United States defense protection; to the contrary, they were designed to ensure United States defense of Western Europe in response to any and all challenges.

The era of Massive Retaliation was overtaken by the emergence and growth of Soviet nuclear power, which ushered in the Doctrine of Limited War. This drew its rationale from the fact that the era of mutual deterrence, in which both sides were evenly vulnerable, was at hand and the credibility of the threat of general war thus was sharply reduced. The implication of the Cuban crisis was that the Soviets were not prepared to accept the risk of a United States nuclear first strike. While the United States may temporarily be invulnerable, this is an advantage that soon can be expected to disappear. In the future, we can look forward to the reconciliation of political crises of local forces rather than through the clash or threat of employment of counterforce capabilities.

We are now responding, in strategic planning, to the Doctrine of Flexible Response, which simply defined means that whether on first or second strike, the United States would concentrate on military targets. Ambiguity as to what constitutes a military target persists and it is important that this be clarified in order to put the Russians on notice concerning our intentions. The thrust of a Doctrine of Flexible Response is that, whatever the nature of a Soviet strike, we would retain the capability to respond catastrophically. The implication of this doctrine is justification of the continuing plausibility of a controlled general war.

## DISCUSSION

Asked to define his own concept of a strategy of Flexible Response, Dr. Kissinger responded that it involved, primarily, the selective employment of strategic forces which he illustrated by referring to

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Schelling's thesis of a war of limited retaliation, following the blow-for-a-blow pattern. The principal problem is how to nibble at the enemy's capabilities without provoking a major retaliatory blow. An ancillary problem is the utmost precision in informing the Russians what we expect from them; in essence, we must teach them how to surrender rather than to risk everything on a final suicidal play.

Dr. Kissinger was not inclined to rate very high the prospect of a general war without the employment of nuclear weapons, but he did not entirely exclude the possibility. There is the pervasive danger of escalation, but if there is mutual invulnerability, there would be no advantage to escalation. Dr. Kissinger considered it possible to employ tactical nuclear weapons without necessarily provoking the commitment of strategic capabilities.

Considerable speculation centered on Soviet motives in sparking the Cuban crisis. Why did the Soviets risk so much for what was essentially a marginal advantage? In the face of a decided set-back to the Russians on the Cuban affair, Dr. Kissinger expressed the hope that there would be no relaxation of pressure against them since this could very quickly vitiate the advantage the United States has gained.

In a final comment, Dr. Kissinger deplored the escalation of emphasis on social science research in government agencies. This trend has already engulfed entirely too many academicians into profitless activities. Confronted by deadlines that give them no time in which to do honest independent research, they are forced to regurgitate the long-obsolescent results of the research of colleagues. Furthermore, the ready availability of academic specialists provides the policy officer with an excuse to avoid hard decisions since he can easily obtain "expert" support for almost any point of view. Even in the pure sciences, there is too much emphasis on academic consultants and researchers. In Dr. Kissinger's opinion, valuable time and scarce talents are being wasted by government agencies. Leave the specialists alone. If they have anything to contribute, they are far more likely to do so on their own campuses, on their own time, than on the government payroll.

JACK W. LYDMAN