almost a year in advance, but you
can't issue a boarding pass with
that seat number on it until 30 days
before departure.

"For that privilege of some-
times being able to do it [give
advance seat assignments]—which
takes the onus off the airline from
doing it, I might add—we some-
times end up looking like the bad
guy," says Joseph Hallissey, CTC,
president of Hallissey Travel Serv-
ice Inc. in Dearborn, Michigan.
"Sometimes we spend more time
fiddling around trying to get seats
for people than we did in getting
flights for them; and sometimes
we can't get the seats that they
want or expect they should have."

Cannot the airlines at least
agree on uniform time schedules
for advance seat availability?

"I don't think all airlines have built systems to handle seat processing the same way we handle reservations processing," says SABRE's Jones. "And agents say now that getting Mr. Smith in 4A is the critical event. They spend a tremendous amount of time getting him in 4A, and they feel that they aren't being compensated for that. Now I think that [compensation] comes out of their overall commission certainly, but I also think that in time, [airline reservations] systems are going to have to realize how important it is for their best customers to get the seat they want. I mean, nobody waitlists a seat—if you want an aisle seat and don't get one, then you just have to keep asking or looking.

"We've been working with other carriers to improve the methodology we use in transmitting that information from one carrier to another," Jones adds, "because agents continually tell me in every forum how important that is to them and how important it is to their customers."

But he is less sanguine about
the possibility that airlines might
adopt uniform schedules in opening
up seats for advance assignment. "I
doubt if that will happen," he says.
"That's a marketing issue, and it's
also a data-processing issue. Some
carriers still do seats manually, so
it's a question of how they want to
run their business. People come to
us and say, 'Can't you ask all the
airlines to do it the same way?' and
I say, 'Sure—it's about as effective
as asking them all to price the same
way.' It's a service feature, and I
just don't think you're going to see
it."

Jones acknowledges that "if
you ask the travel agents what
makes them mad, the boarding
passes drive them crazy. And they
drive us crazy." He also concedes
that he would love to scrap the
whole procedure and move to the
concept of no-ticket, no-boarding
pass travel, where the passenger
could just show an ID and walk on
the plane. That concept is techno-
logically possible today, he says,
but the mind-set of the passenger
poses a big obstacle.

A TICKET IN THE HAND

"Travelers today want the
ticket and boarding pass in their
hand before they leave the office,"
Jones says. "In their view, that is

their passport onto the airplane.
And that has to change in order to
go to ticketless travel."

Airlines already exchange tick-
eting data electronically every day,
he notes, and that exchange could
easily be speeded up, so airport
personnel of any airline could verify
a passenger's ticket purchase, flight
and seat data by a simple computer
check.

"What do we really need from
a guy at the airport?" Jones asks.
"We need to know that Terry Jones
is Terry Jones, and that he has a
reservation and a seat. That's all
we need to know." He points to
other industries: "We don't have a
hotel ticket; we don't have a car
rental ticket. And those systems
work fine."

But to move to ticketless air
travel, he goes on, two things are
needed: the customer's confidence
that he or she will be adequately
served at boarding without a docu-
ment, and some form of worldwide
interline acceptance of a new elec-
tronic "currency" that can replace
tickets.

"If you think about an airline
ticket, there is probably no more
negotiable document in the world,"
Jones says. "It's accepted in hun-
dreds of countries, it can be re-
funded, exchanged, enhanced,
changed, because hundreds of car-
riers have agreed on this common
'currency.' Well, in order to do
away with that currency, then
everybody has to have a surrogate,
and what is that going to be?

"Now, something could cer-
tainly happen domestically in the
United States; where you get a
dozen carriers that have so much
of the lift, we could probably do
something electronically," he points
out, but adds that in Africa or
Southeast Asia, for example, tick-
etless systems probably won't ar-
rive for a long time.

"Let's put it this way," says ASTA's Davidoff: "'[Ticketless travel] is technologically feasible today, but I don't know of a single passenger—especially a frequent traveler—who feels safe enough walking up to the airport without something in his hand. So if the airline doesn't end up issuing a ticket, then we travel agents are going to have to issue some sort of voucher, some sort of information."

"I don't think the ticket will
always have the intrinsic value as
it does today necessarily, but we're
going to have to give the client
something."

ASTA AGENCY MANAGEMENT

OCTOBER 1990 75

JERRY BEAUCHAMP

BY MICHAEL DRISCOLL

# The World According To Henry Kissinger

Europe's sweeping political changes augur well for tourism—but economic and travel-related problems persist.

Like many a traveler to Europe during 1990, Dr. Henry Kissinger is a proud owner of a piece of the Berlin Wall. Yet there was a time not too long ago when Kissinger, along with millions of others, did not expect the wall to be dismantled until the next century, if then.

The possibility of its crumbling did not even come up the last time Kissinger addressed ASTA members, at the 1979 Congress in Munich. Back then his speech—to the great surprise of no one—centered on East-West relations.

Although more than a decade has passed since the Munich gathering, some topics remain constant: Kissinger is likely to focus once again on East-West relations when speaking at ASTA's 1990 Congress in Hamburg this month. But the makeup of the issue is far different.

"At the time I spoke in Munich I didn't foresee Germany becoming one country during my lifetime," says Kissinger. "It wasn't until around 1985 I thought, philosophically, that Eastern Europe would change sooner or later. But I also thought that once the process started it would take eight years to be completed. It wound up taking about eight weeks. So my timing was way off—but then so was everyone else's."

The timing of unification was a heavily debated issue in Europe throughout the summer, and—although it's unlikely this was foremost in the minds of negotiators—the dilemma's resolution couldn't have been more fortuitous with regard to the travel plans of ASTA members. This year's Congress

opens on October 7, only four days after what political pundits are fond of calling the most momentous geopolitical change Europe has seen since the aftermath of World War II. On October 3, East Germany's Parliament will vote itself and its country out of existence and become a part of the (Western) Federal Republic of Germany.

## THE YEAR OF DEMOCRACY

When ASTA leaders chose Hamburg as the site of the annual gathering, no one had any idea how propitious the choice would be. To many delegates the excitement surrounding the political developments will more than compensate for the rising costs involved in traveling to Europe (also unforeseen when the conference site was chosen). And the sweeping changes have expanded the focus of the Congress, from a northern European showcase to a gathering that enables ASTA members to assess the viability of emerging travel

destinations in both northern and Eastern Europe. (Hamburg is only an hour's drive from the rapidly dissolving East German border.)

Political analyst Dr. John Stoessinger, a personal biographer of Kissinger, says, "Historically, 1990 will be remembered as the year of democracy with some 20 countries joining the ranks of democracy. This is an extraordinary year to visit Germany."

It is also a year which many pinpoint as a time of shifting of economic focus, something which will undoubtedly affect the business of travel agents. Stoessinger, who will be addressing delegates at this year's Congress on such changes, notes, "What these developments mean for the tourist industry is absolutely mind-boggling. We're witness-ing the collapse of communism, the decline of U.S. economic impor-tance and the rise of Europe in the middle."

As Stoessinger views it, these developments could lead to prolonged sluggishness for the U.S. economy, ultimately curbing outbound travel. On the other hand, inbound U.S. travel may flourish, as changing economic conditions

The former U.S. secretary of state is interviewed in the New York office of Kissinger Associates Inc., an international consulting firm of which he is chairman.

J. HOAGLAND/GAMMA LIAISON

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ROBERT CAVIN/RCMS PHOTOGRAPHY

HENRY KISSINGER

could provide Europeans with more discretionary income before the end of the decade.

"West Germany is virtually buying a country [East Germany] for the equivalent of $200 billion," says Stoessinger. "Meanwhile, Americans are paying $500 billion to bail out savings and loans."

Of course, many economists take a more positive view of America's finances, arguing that the United States has the resources and ability to remain master of its economic destiny. But even these optimists agree that Germany's role in the world's revised political structure will undoubtedly influence the economies of Western Europe and the United States.

"Germany is already economically the strongest country in Europe and therefore will have a major, some people say dominating, voice in the European community," notes Kissinger.

Just how dominant this voice will be remains to be seen. Kissinger's address to ASTA delegates in Munich dealt with the potential importance of the then fledgling European Economic Community in revitalizing Europe's economy. Now, as economic unification draws closer, an added issue is the role of Eastern Europe in what had been a Western European plan.

"Perhaps three years from now there is the possibility of such Eastern European countries as Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland joining the European Economic Community," predicts Kissinger. "But none of these countries are in a position or have a desire to balance out Germany."

Furthermore, their chances of becoming positive economic forces in the world economy are far from assured. Kissinger notes that all these new democracies have external debts and tremendous economic burdens.

## BIG BROTHER

Of all the Eastern European countries, Kissinger sees East Germany as best positioned to overcome economic problems. "Every problem Eastern Europe has, East Germany has also," he says. "The difference is East Germany has an older brother in West Germany that will put in the resources."

West Germany's active role in transforming East Germany's economy is not necessarily altruistic. If positive changes don't occur in the East, Kissinger foresees a

massive movement of East Germans into the western region, a move which could well disrupt the latter's economic well-being.

A significant number of West Germans may move into East Germany as well, applying expertise and training that their eastern counterparts currently lack. Kissinger predicts the West Germans will work to create industries along the East Germany/Poland border, taking advantage of the cheap labor available from Polish workers.

There the West Germans will encounter a work force that Kissinger is not hesitant to portray as suffering from lazy work habits. "The East Germans live different lifestyles than West Germans," he says. "They don't work very hard."

Kissinger traces this different mind-set to the East Germans' being raised to "rip off the Communist state" instead of growing up with a Western work ethic. But with communism no longer a significant factor, Kissinger predicts the Germans will live up to their "entrepreneurial tradition and return to their old habits at the end of the day."

Providing this does occur, most analysts agree that the East German economy could recover in a few years time. To Kissinger, the real problem is what will happen to economies in Poland, Czechoslovakia and Hungary—none of which comes close to having a “big brother” such as West Germany.

## TOURISM'S ROLE

Many political leaders in those countries are turning to tourism as a potentially substantial revenue source which does not require excessive spending to build up. The timing for increased tourism makes sense as there are a good number of travelers expressing interest in visiting Eastern Europe to take a look at the new democracies.

And, as many an agent will attest, Eastern Europe was one of the rare markets registering an increase in sales over the summer. A glance at the tourism situation in Czechoslovakia this year illustrates the dramatic changes in the travel situation to Eastern Europe. The U.S. market exploded over the summer, with arrivals increasing more than 30 percent over the

same period last year. While the bulk of this business centers in Prague, more visitors are increasing their length of stay by fanning out into Moravia and Slovakia.

As with several newly emerging democracies, Czechoslovakia eliminated the visa requirement for tourists from the United States and Canada staying less than 30 days in the country. Hotel space in Prague continues to be a problem, but the tightness is being eased with the renovation and reopening of the five-star Palace Hotel off Wenceslas Square and the opening this fall of the 386-room Diplomat Hotel near Prague Castle. Next year the building continues with the opening of the 1,500-bed Atrium Hotel in downtown Prague.

The rapidly developing infrastructure and tourism growth in Czechoslovakia mirrors travel patterns elsewhere in Eastern Europe. Even with such a surge taking place, however, the total number of annual U.S. visitors to Czechoslovakia—in the vicinity of 100,000—is still not substantial when compared with the numbers received by Western European nations. The funding available for promoting travel to such nations may not be enough to continue sustained growth. And lack of funding is just one of many possible barriers to steady tourism growth.

Kissinger predicts a continued tourism boom to Eastern Europe, reasoning that the area's diverse attractions will ensure continued tourism growth even after the transformation to democracy is no longer hot news.

And there is certainly substance behind that viewpoint. On the one hand, there is Prague, described by Kissinger as "the best-preserved city in Eastern Europe." A completely different experience can be found in other capitals of the East, such as Poland's, which, Kissinger attests, did a "great job of rebuilding the city of Warsaw after the war."

But even those who, like Kissinger, view tourism as a potential moneymaker for Eastern European nations point out that severe infrastructure problems in the region are currently hindering substantial growth.

"As hotels get developed in these cities and as the market of economics develops—which won't be all that rapid—travel will be a lot easier than it used to be," Kissinger says. "I don't think it will

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ASTA AGENCY MANAGEMENT

ANTHONY SUAU/BLACK STAR

HENRY KISSINGER

The Berlin Wall is no longer, but differences between East and West continue, particularly in terms of the work ethic. Kissinger, however, believes the East Germans will live up to their 'entrepreneurial traditions' and return to their old work habits.

happen within a year, but perhaps within two to three years.”

He is not as optimistic about a continued increase in travel to the Soviet Union. Kissinger portrays it as a country that may be heading toward chaos—which, as any agent knows, does not bode well for travel conditions.

"I think the objective conditions for economic reform in Germany, and even China, are in many respects better than in the Soviet Union," he says. "If we look at it over a 10-year period, Chinese political reform is likely to get started again and the economy will come back-unless a civil war starts." If such political reform does occur, Kissinger predicts that China will rebound as an overseas travel destination for Americans before many expect such a return.

Of course, he is no stranger to political developments in China. Kissinger served as executive secretary of the National Security Council from 1969 to 1975 and is widely considered the architect of the rapprochement between the United States and the People's Republic of China in 1972.

Partly because of this action, he emerged as the most influential figure in former President Richard Nixon's administration, becoming secretary of state in 1973, the

same year in which he received the Nobel Peace Prize.

## KISSINGER'S LEGACY

His foreign policy achievements have certainly been well-publicized, and as Stoessinger notes, "Kissinger is the one ex-secretary of state who has not lost credibility or visibility. People in power still seek out his advice."

That helps explains why one of Francis Goranin's first actions as 1990 ASTA Congress chairman was to check Kissinger's availability to speak in Hamburg. Goranin, who is president of Vega Travel Services in Chicago, used his contacts with American Express, and the company agreed to sponsor Kissinger's address. (The former secretary sits on the American Express board of directors.)

"Even without all the remarkable political changes taking place in Europe this year, Kissinger would have been a viable speaker," says Goranin. "Whether you agree or disagree with him, he's a prolific traveler, with firsthand experience in regions of interest to ASTA members. And, of course, Germany

always welcomes him as one of their great sons." (Kissinger is a native of Bavaria.)

Goranin's actions were also prompted by his belief that political events outside the United States shape the American economy. As the travel industry is particularly affected by such economic shifts, Goranin, a travel agent for more than 40 years, well appreciates the importance of keeping abreast of changing political tides. And last, but not least, the former ASTA president recalls the positive reaction of agents to Kissinger's speech at the society's last Congress in Germany.

Kissinger also recalls that event, noting that at the time he was speaking as a "member of the government in exile." With a Republican administration now in power, the former secretary no longer views himself as a political exile. But while different people have come to power since Kissinger officially held office, many of the themes they deal with remain the same. And once again, in this year's address, the role of Germany and East-West relations will undoubtedly come up.

"I'm counting on Gorbachev to pull some rabbit out of the hat," quips Kissinger. "He saves me from repeating myself."

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ASTA AGENCY MANAGEMENT