["[L.C.]", "書評 そうい", "再述一の当\nてお何いしたの\nいて何かenedにこ\nいて何かenedにこ\nって何かenedにこ\nって何かenedにこ\nって何かenedにこ\nって何か

[LC]

THE STASTE INTERVIEW [1]

指導者が経験を積もうちに、
深みをますと考えるのは幻想である。

指導者が高い位置につくまえに得た確信선いのは、
知的資本であり、その地位にとどまる間この指導者は、
この資本を消費することになる。

『キッシングマー秘録』(小学館)より引用

Kissinger became Richard Nixon's special presidential aide in 1969 and paved the way for Nixon's breakthrough visit to China in 1972. After playing an instrumental role in the Vietnam War's Paris Peace Treaty, he was named U.S. Secretary of State under Nixon in 1973.

Dr. キッシングマー ソ連は、現状の維持はコストがかかり過ぎるという考えに到達したと、私は思っていました。それは、ヨーロッパの中心における軍事的冒険を歿止めなく強制させるることになるからです。また、それは、他のヨーロッパの国々との関係を右無しにするし、米国との関係も弱めます。ですから、ヨーロッパの中心に始終反乱鎖圧に従事する巨大的陸軍を維持して、彼らの安全を確保することはできないという結論に達したのです。
ソ連の安全保障の観点から、彼らは明らかに軍を自国領土内に置いておく方がより安全であると結論し、その方が他の方法よりも安全保障により達しているということです。

**Midori Miyazaki:** First of all, I'd like to ask you about the reunification of Germany. On the very day of the German reunification I was in Berlin to cover the news. I had an impression that German people showed stronger interest in the recovery of their sovereignty than in the unification itself.

**Henry Kissinger:** Well, sovereignty in the German mind is closely connected with the German unification. Because as long as the two Germanies were divided, they did not really have a sovereignty and considered themselves defeated territories under occupied rule. With unification, foreign occupation implicitly ended. So, you see, in the German mind the two are related.

**Miyazaki:** Do you think that a strong nationalistic feeling among the German people will now emerge?

**Kissinger:** That is the big challenge in Europe right now. Whether they will manage to form a united Europe or whether they will go the route of nationalism. I think the Germans have many reasons not to be nationalistic. But they are also located at the centre of the continent, and have more neighbours than any other country, which produces a consciousness of nationality. I hope that Germany will go the road of European unification, however, and do think they will.

**Miyazaki:** Is a reunified Germany a threat?

**Kissinger:** In terms of population, Germany is the largest country outside the Soviet Union on the continent and has a high industrial potential, but I do not think of Germany as a military threat.

19

[L]C

THE STASTE INTERVIEW- [1]

**Miyazaki:** Throughout Eastern Europe internal reform is now their priority, but there exists a vacuum of power. What do you think how we should create a new order, peace and harmony in the post Cold-War era?
**Kissinger:** I think that the Soviet Union has arrived at the view that trying to maintain the status quo was simply too expensive, because it would force it into endless military adventures in the centre of Europe. It was also jeopardizing its relations with other European countries and weakening its relationship with the United States. So, it decided that its security could not be assured by maintaining a large army in the centre of Europe that was constantly preoccupied with putting down rebellion. From the point of view of Soviet security, it has obviously concluded that keeping its army within its territory is safer and more compatible with internal security than any other course.

**Miyazaki:** Well, what do you think about the EC?

**Kissinger:** I think the European Community will come to assume political functions and a portion of military functions through the mechanism of the West European Union, WEU.

**Miyazaki:** Well, how about the functions of the CSCE, [Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe]?

**Kissinger:** We had the first CSCE conference when I was in government. There are certain specific functions that the CSCE can perform, such as: encouraging economic contact between East and West; student human rights activities; and, general exchange of ideas. What the CSCE cannot do is to have a security function because then it would become almost like the old League of Nations.

**Miyazaki:** Now I'd like to hear your opinions about the Soviet Union.

**Kissinger:** People in the Soviet Union are probably feeling more independent. I do not think there is much that the West or the industrial democracies can do one way or the other. The internal revolution of the Soviet Union has to be achieved by the Soviet Union. There is very little we can do about it except to prevent catastrophe. If there's famine in Russia, then we should try to help.

のイデオロギーは、民族主義の代替物であり、国家をひととにめつめ続けるための手続でした。今では、共産主義のイデオロギーも弱くなり、全部の共和国で人々は選挙によって地方政府を作りました。数百年の間で、ロシアは初めて、中央から統治されないということがになり、各共和国の首都からの統治ということがなりました。このことは、これらの共和国のいくつかを独立させるか、それとも、抑圧するかという問題を創出することです。そして、その兩方が起こるかもしれません。

また、私はここ一二年の間に、根本的な経済問題 流通システムの崩壊なども含め、ソ連には多くの問題が起こると思っています。

宮崎 ゴルバチョフ大統領と彼の業績をどのように評価されますか。

Dr. キッシングジャレ ゴルバチョフ大統領は、非凡な分析力を持って、社会の困難な問題を認識しています。彼が奮い気の持ち主だと思います。認識した問題を実際に解決することにも同様に成功しているかどうかは時期尚早で何とも言えません。

宮崎 ところで、東欧は債務の問題など第二のラテンアメリカになっています。さうableな気がするのですが……。

Dr. キッシングジャレ えます。多くの国が、市場経済から中央計画経済に移行しました。しかし、中央計画経済から市場経済に移行した国は尚未かされていないんです。何故かといいます

THE STASTE INTERVIEW [1]

**Miyazaki:** The communist ideology has been like sort of adhesives to stick all the nationals together but now it lost its power.

**Kissinger:** Well, communist ideology was a substitute for nationalism and was the means of holding the country together. Now that communist ideology has weakened and they have elected government in all of the republics, for the first time in several hundred years Russia is not being governed from the centre but from the capital of each of the republics. This creates a problem because either they will have to let some of these republics go or there will be repression. And possibly there will be both. I also think that within a year or two a lot of items will come out in the open, such as fundamental economic problems including a breakdown of the distribution system.

**Miyazaki:** How do you evaluate President Gorbachev and his achievements?

**Kissinger:** I think President Gorbachev has unusual courage and unusual analytic ability in recognizing the difficult complexities of his society. It is too early to tell, however, whether he can be as successful in actually solving the problems that he has identified.

**Miyazaki:** It seems to me that Eastern Europe may become the second Latin America.

**Kissinger:** To be sure, many countries have gone from market economics to central planning but no country has yet gone from central planning to market economics. Somebody, once said it is like the difference between an aquarium and a fish soup; you can make fish soup out of an aquarium, but you can not make an aquarium out of fish soup. Now that is the real problem. They would all like to be like Western Europe today. But they forget that Western Europe, like Japan, went through 10 to 15 years of economic hardship before the consumer economy started.

People in the Eastern Bloc now adopt democracy, at least most of them do, and they are committed to market economics. But with oil prices going up, they also have an energy crisis.

**Miyazaki:** And now I'd like to focus on the subject of the Middle East problems.

**Kissinger:** I have stated repeatedly that a long major American presence in the Gulf is highly undesirable because it will destabilize the governments of the area and will itself become a bone of contention.

And I think we probably cannot maintain a very large force for any length of time.

指導者となれば、沈黙熟考しているひまはほまとNESSA。彼は、重要なことより、緊急なことが絶えず優位に立つ、はてしない、闘いに巻き込まれる。あらゆる政治家の公的生活は、情勢の圧力に対して、少しても選択の余地を残そうとする不断の闘いである。

『キッズジャリー総録』(小学館)より抜粋

"People in the Soviet Union are probably feeling more independent, [but] I don't think there is much the West or any of the industrial democracies can do one way or the other. The internal revolution of the Soviet Union has to be done by the Soviet Union. If there's famine in Russia, then we should try to help."

23

[C]

THE STASTE INTERVIEW—[1]

**Miyazaki:** What do you think of the Palestinian - Israeli situation?

**Kissinger:** Well, it is definitely a problem. When the Gulf crisis has ended, we should certainly turn to it. If the moderate countries of the Arab world associated with us feel afterwards that they were successfully defended, then we might be able to enter cooperative negotiation. If Saddam Hussein emerges in the Arab mind as somebody who has scored success, then we will have difficulty. The situation is very fluid because there you have conflicts between radical and moderate Arabs. You have conflicts between fundamentalists and secularists. You have the Arab/Israeli conflict. Therefore, not everything can be settled around the Palestinian issue. And I believe it is going to take a long time before we can say a new order has emerged.

**Miyazaki:** You are standing on the bridge that lies between academia and real politics. Academia passes through ideals while politics passes through feasibility. There have been few academics who influenced an administration any greater than you did yourself. How do you make these two different roles compatible?

**Kissinger:** Well, I never expected to have any practical role. I thought I would be an academician all my life. It was almost by accident that I became a practising statesman. There is a big difference between a conclusion and a decision. You can change a conclusion but you pay a much higher price for changing a decision. To reach a conclusion you can usually spend as much time as you need. In real life decisions have to be made within a limited time frame. A conclusion you can reverse after some time. A decision has its own momentum. There is not enough experience with professors in decision making processes to be able to draw a general conclusion. But these are the considerations that bear on it. I do not think professors are as a rule good decision makers, because they do not know the difference between a decision and a conclusion. I am at the borderline between academic life and practical life, and there are few like me. So I do not know whether one can draw a general conclusion from essentially one experience.

**Miyazaki:** By the way, is there any book that influenced you greatly?

**Kissinger:** I admire Churchill very much. I like biographies of people like De Gaulle and Churchill. I like to read memoirs of people and history.

**Miyazaki:** This is the last question. I know you're very busy every day, but do you do anything special to maintain your health?

**Kissinger:** Well, I like to play tennis and I like to go swimming. I have a house in the country, and I go there every weekend. It is in a forest in the hills and I like to get out.

acieous. ですから、私が政治家
になったことのは、事故に会ったAny
なものです。

『結論』と『決定』との間には大き
な違いがあります。結論は変えるこ
とができましと、結論に達するため
には、通常なら、必要な時間を使う
ことができましと、決定を変
えるには高価な代償を支払うことに
なります。全ての決定はある限定さ
れた梓の中で行なわれなければなり
ません。結論というものは、ある程
度時間がたっても一八〇度変更する
ことができましと。決定は、それ自身
勢いを持っています。

意思決定過程においては、大学教
授たちは、充分な結論を持っていま
せん。私は、教授は良い決定者では
いないと思っています。彼らは、決定

と結論の間の違いを知らないからで
す。

私のように、研究者と実務家の両
方の立場にいる人間は大変少ないで
しょう。ですから、たった一つの経
験から一般的な結論をひきだせるか
どうか分かりません。

宮崎 ところで、大きな影響をドク
ターに与えた本はありません。

Dr.キッシンジャリー 私は、チャーチ
ルを大変尊敬しています。チャーチ
ルやド一级の伝記が好きです。人
の自伝や歴史書を読むのが好きです
ね。

宮崎 毎日、大変お忙しいと思いま
すが、健康を保つために特別なこと
を stiller しろ しろ すか。

Dr.キッシンジャリー ええ。テニスを
するのが好きですし、水泳もやりま

す。田舎に家を一軒持っているので、
毎週来、そこへ行きます。丘の上の
森の中にあるんです。宮崎 そうですね。ますますお元気
でご活躍下さい。今日はありますが、
ご益いました。

The English copy for this interview was edited by OZONE PLANNING Inc.

25

M. Miyazaki: First of all, I'd like to ask you about the reunification of Germany. On the very day of the German reunification I was in Berlin to cover the news. I had an impression that German people showed stronger interest in the recovery of their sovereignty than in the unification itself.

Dr. Kissinger: Well, sovereignty in the German mind is connected with the German unification. Because as long as they were divided, they did not really have a sovereignty over their own territories and they considered themselves a defeated country under occupation rule. With unification, it is their foreign occupation ended. And so, you see, in the German mind the two are related.

M. Miyazaki: Do you think that a strong nationalistic feeling among the German people will emerge from now on?

Dr. Kissinger: That is the big challenge in Europe right now. Whether they will manage to form a United Europe or whether they will go the route of nationhood. I think the Germans have many reasons not to be nationalist. But they are also located in the center of the continent, and they have more neighbors than any other country. Which produces a consciousness of nationality. I hope that Germany will go the road of European unification, and think they will.

M. Miyazaki: Is a reunified Germany a threat?

Dr. Kissinger: In terms of population, Germany is the largest country outside the Soviet Union on the continent and has high industrial potential.

but I don't think Germany is a military threat.

M. Miyazaki: Throughout eastern Europe integral reform is now their priority but there exists a vacuum of power. What do you think how we should create a new order, peace and harmony in the post cold war era?

Dr. Kinninger: I think that the Soviet Union has come to the view that trying to maintain the status quo was too expensive. It would force it into endless military adventures in the center of Europe. It was also unwise, its relations with the other European countries and it would weaken its relationship with the United States. So, it decided that its security could not be assured by maintaining a large army in the center of Europe that was constantly occupied while putting down the rebellion. From the point of view of Soviet security, it has obviously concluded that keeping their army inside their territory is safer than being more compatible with their security than any other country.

M. Miyazaki: Well, what do you think about the EC?

Dr. Kinninger: I think the European Community will come to assume political functions and a part of military functions through the mechanism of the West European Union, WEU.

M. Miyazaki: Well, how about the functions of the CSC?

Dr. Kinninger: We had the first CSC conference when I was in Government. There are certain specific functions that the CSC can do, encouraging

economies contact between east and west; student, human rights activities; and, general exchange of ideas. What the CSC cannot do is to have a security function because it would almost certainly like the old League of Nations.

M. Miyazaki: Now I'd like to hear your opinions about the Soviet Union.

Mr. Kissinger: People in the Soviet Union are probably feeling more independent. I do not think there is much that the West or the industrial democracies can do one way or the other. The internal revolution of the Soviet Union has to be achieved by the Soviet Union. There is very little we can do about it except to prevent catastrophe. If there is any chance in Russia, then we should try to help.

M. Miyazaki: The communist ideology has been like sort of adhesives to stick all the nationals together but now it lost its power.

Dr. Kissinger: Well, the communist ideology was a substitute for nationalism and was the means of holding the country together. Now that the communist ideology has weakened and that they have elected government in all of the republics, for the first time in several hundred years Russia is being governed from the center but from the capital of each of the republics. This creates a problem because either they will have to let some of these republics go or there will be repression. And maybe there will be both. I also think that within a year or two a lot of items will come out in the open, such as fundamental economic problems including a breakdown of the distribution system.

M. Miyazaki: How do you evaluate President Gorbachev and his achievements?

Dr. Kissinger: I think President Corbachev has an unusual analytic ability in unusual circumstances, recognizing the difficulty of his society.

It is too early to tell, whether he can be equally successful in actually solving the problems that he has identified.

M. Miyazaki: It seems to me that eastern Europe may become the second Latin America.

Dr. Kissinger: Well, many countries have gone from market economics to central planning, but no country has yet gone from central planning to market economics. Once, somebody said it was the difference between an aquarium and fish soup: you can make fish soup out of an aquarium, but you can not make an aquarium out of fish soup. That is the problem.

They would like to be like Western Europe today. But they forget that Western Europe, like Japan, went through ten to fifteen years of economic hardship before the consumer economy started.

People in the eastern block now adopt democracy, at least most of them, and they are committed to market economics. But with oil prices going up, they also have an energy crisis.

M. Miyazaki: And now I'd like to focus the subject on the middle east problems.

Dr. Kissinger: I have stated repeatedly that a long major American presence in the Gulf is highly undesirable, because it will destabilize the government of the area and will itself become a bone of contention. And if we probably cannot maintain a very large force for any length

of time

M. Miyazaki: What do you think of the Palestinian problems that surrounds Israel?

Dr. Küssingel: Well, this problem. When the Gulf crisis ended, we should certainly turn to it. If the moderate countries of the Arab world associate with us, that would be successfully defended. Then we might be able to start a cooperative negotiation. If Saddam Hussein emerges in the Arab mind as somebody who has scored successes, then we will have difficulty.

The situation is very fluid because you have conflicts between radical and moderate Arabs. You have conflicts between fundamentalists and secularists. There is not everything can be settled around the Palestinian issue. And I believe it is going to take a long time before we can say a new order has emerged.

M. Miyazaki: Let me ask you a question that I really want to ask. You are standing on the bridge that lies between academia and real politics. Academia passes through ideals while politics pass through feasibility. There have been few academics who influenced an administration any greater than you did yourself. How do you make these two different roles compatible?

Dr. Küssingel: Well, I never expected to have any practical role. I thought I would be an academic all my life. But it was almost an accident that I became a practicing statesman.

change a conclusion but you pay a much higher price for changing a decision. To reach a conclusion you can usually spend as much time as you need. In real life, conclusions have to be made within a limited time frame. A conclusion you can reverse after some time. A decision has its own momentum. There is not enough experience with professors in decision-making or even to be able to draw a general conclusion. But there are the considerations that bear on it. I do not think professors are good as a rule. Because they do not know the difference between a decision and a conclusion.

I am at the border line between academic life and practical life, and there are few like me. So I do not know whether one can draw a general conclusion from essentially one experience.

M. Miyazaki: By the way, is there any book that influenced you greatly?

Dr. Kissinger: I admire Churchill very much. I like biographies of people like De Gaulle and Churchill. I like to read memoirs of people and history.

M. Miyazaki: This is the last question. I know you're very busy every day, but do you do anything special to maintain your health?

Dr. Kissinger: Well, I like to play tennis and I like to go swimming. I have a house in the country, and I go there every weekend. I like to go for a walk in the hills and I like to get out.

M. Miyazaki: Thank you very much.