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CAUTION: This material is strictly embargoed. Its use is authorized
only by subscribers of the HENRY KISSINGER column. With the
exception of these paid subscribers, its contents must not under
any circumstances be quoted, excerpted, summarized, paraphrased or
in any way published, in whole or in part. Precautions should be
taken to prevent the disclosure of the contents of this material to
third parties prior to publication.

HENRY KISSINGER

For immediate release (Distributed 9/7/90)

(c) 1990, Los Angeles Times Syndicate

The following story, based on an interview by editors of Yomiuri Shimbun with Dr. Henry Kissinger, was prepared by David Farnsworth of the Daily Yomiuri staff.

Should diplomacy fail to end the Iraqi crisis, U.S. troops
should not be removed from the Middle East, Dr. Henry Kissinger
told a group of editors of Yomiuri Shimbun in Tokyo Thursday (Aug.
6). The former U.S. Secretary of State also called the hostages "the
most crucial element" in that crisis.

Asked whether President George Bush intends to ask for
Gorbachev's support for possible U.S. military action against Iraq,
Kissinger replied: "I would be surprised if Bush has this intention.
One should never go to a summit to ask a question to which one does
not know the answer."

Kissinger said he favors the blockade approach to Iraq at the
present time. But "if the blockade does not work, either because it
takes longer than we expected or because the suffering that it
produces is more than the democratic countries can stand, and if
diplomacy fails, can the United States then march out of the Gulf?
My answer to that last question is no, it cannot.

"As to the hostages, I agree with President Bush that whatever
actions are necessary will be taken as if the hostages did not
exist. Easier said than done, but I agree with the concept,"
Kissinger said.

Nevertheless, the hostages are the crucial element in this
crisis, Kissinger said. "I find it astonishing that there is not
more outrage in the world at government-conducted terrorism."

Previously, he explained, terrorists were technically outlaw
groups that some governments welcomed but publicly disavowed, but
"now we have 10,000 individuals being held hostage by a government.
The head of government is photographed with the hostages and is
threatening them -- in a nice way -- but still threatening them.

"If this is permitted, nobody will be safe traveling any more,"
Kissinger said, adding, "I think this is a very ominous development."

On Japan's role in the Middle East, Kissinger said he believes
the United States has no quarrel with Japan over its support of the
blockade, either in terms of withholding trade from Iraq or in
diplomatic support of U.N. and U.S. initiatives.

Concerning military assistance, however, Kissinger said he was
"ambivalent" about Japan sending Self-Defense Force units overseas.

"The help can only be very marginal. I do not think the United
States should encourage Japan to get into distant military
enterprises. If Japan comes to the view through its own analysis

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(that military intervention is necessary) we should not oppose it, either."

On German reunification, Kissinger said, "No country has ever gone from central planning to a market economy successfully, and no country has ever done it on one day. On July 3, the East German economy was changed from central planning to a market economy overnight with the introduction of the West German mark."

He said the resulting unemployment and economic dislocation were expected, but added that the readjustment should only take about a year. "It is almost a classical Keynesian situation. You have 16 million new consumers who have had a low standard of living being given hard currency. It is almost impossible for this not to create an economic boom."

The resultant new Germany will come out stronger and more assertive than anytime since World War II, Kissinger said.

Turning to the Soviet Union, Kissinger said that nation is under great domestic strain, which precludes it from an active foreign policy.

"Gorbachev has in many respects been overtaken by events he started," Kissinger said. "Perestroika, the way it was first conceived, is almost totally dead. It is now clear that that is not the problem."

The real problem, Kissinger said, is the structure of the state which has not left non-Russians with a stake in the Soviet state. They would rather "suffer alone."

The Soviet Union will return the northern territories to Japan by the time Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev visits Japan in April, former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said in Tokyo Thursday.

"I believe that by the time of the Gorbachev visit, the northern territories will be returned to Japan for some financial arrangement," Kissinger told interviewer Yoshimasa Abe, acting managing editor of The Yomiuri Shimbun. He hastened to add that this statement was only his "gut instinct," not the result of any inside information.

Kissinger said Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze's proposal for a foreign ministerial conference to discuss Asian security concerns requires "serious study."

"The problem is more difficult in Asia than in Europe," Kissinger said. "In Asia you have all kinds of cross-currents and shifting complications, and a generalized security system would be more difficult to arrange."

Assuming Shevardnadze's proposed security conference takes place, it should not be held in the Soviet city of Vladivostok "unless one wants to offend the Chinese," because many Chinese consider the city part of China, Kissinger said.

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Kissinger said he favors the blockade approach to Iraq at the present time. But "if the blockade does not work, either because it takes longer than we expected or because the suffering that it produces is more than the democratic countries can stand, and if diplomacy fails, can the United States then march out of the Gulf? My answer to that last question is no, it cannot."

Previously, he explained, terrorists were technically outlaw groups that some governments welcomed but publicly disavowed, but "now we have 10,000 individuals being held hostage by a government. The head of government is photographed with the hostages and is threatening them -- in a nice way -- but still threatening them."

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