DEC 5 1968

INDUSTRIAL COLLEGE OF THE ARMED FORCES

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20315

ICSC

'9 DEC 1968

Professor Henry Kissinger
CFIA
6 Divinity Avenue
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138

Dear Henry:

There was a very real personal thrill associated with my viewing you on television last evening. It is gratifying and comforting to know that you will be advising our next President on defense for this nation in a world of "friends", enemies and "neutrals".

Our mission for the Industrial College has been accomplished, and I shall be receiving instructions for a new assignment within the next few weeks. The work here has been a challenge and interesting.

Inclosed is a copy of our latest effort to explain the use of
simulation through computer time-sharing in an educational
environment. I recall your interest in my definition of "war
games", and thought you would like to see the definitions in this
paper. It also gives some explicit examples of the problems we
encountered here, how we solved them, and what we perceive as
important for future improvement.

Edna joins me in expressing our sincere congratulations on your
important assignment. We both wish you every success.

WILLIAM THANE MINOR
Colonel, USAF
Director, Simulation & Computers

Incl
as

# CURRENT AND FUTURE USES OF TIME-SHARING IN EDUCATIONAL SIMULATION

## THE NEED FOR NEW TOOLS IN MANAGEMENT

Although it has become almost trite to state that technology is increasing at a phenomenal rate, the reality of that fact is unchallenged and presents today's managers with almost insurmountable tasks in evaluating the volume of relevant data available in most problem situations. In addition, managers, both public and military, find themselves struggling with advanced scientific concepts and changing technologies. Computers, a product of this new technology, can and are being used to assist in the evaluation of vast quantities of data and to enhance the decisionmaking process.

At the Industrial College of the Armed Forces (ICAF), one of two post-graduate institutions under the aegis of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,¹ it has been decided that there is a place in the educational process for simulation and the computer. During the past year, ICAF organized a new Directorate for Simulation and Computers (SIMCOM), which has adapted new educational methods to ICAF's ten-month curriculum. These innovations include simulation, computer-assisted instruction, time-sharing terminals, and remote consoles. An integral part of these is the requisite software (programs which operate the computers).

A prime factor in the adaption of such innovations was student diversity, one of the greatest challenges at ICAF. Take a top-flight engineer with no training in political science, a skilled personnel officer with only a superficial knowledge of automatic data processing, an outstanding legal administrator with no background in modern management procedures, a former test pilot now in a key planning position who never completed his undergraduate work. Add 175 other selected military officers and civilian Government executives with skills and background just as disparate, and you have a typical resident class at the Industrial College. These students are enrolled at ICAF to learn how to manage the country's resources for national security. To help the ICAF faculty meet the student's diversified needs, simulation and time-sharing ADPS (Automatic Data Processing System(s)) were instituted.

## DEFINITION OF TERMS FREQUENTLY MISUNDERSTOOD

In order to decrease semantic difficulties, it is always appropriate to define terms. There are three fundamental terms which deserve mutual

¹The JCS administers the National War College (NWC) and ICAF. Both are located at Fort McNair, Washington, D. c.

understanding prior to discussing simulation: model, game, and simulation. In defining these and other terms, the approach will be pragmatic-- not to force the reader into the mold of the author, but rather to create an environment for common understanding.

In the context of common understanding, this paper will discuss the why, how, and what of simulation in education, as well as some of the advantages and limitations in the development and use of simulation. Particular emphasis will be placed on the use of simulation in a time-shared environment, again stressing some of the advantages and limitations of such a system.

The first term frequently misunderstood during discussions on simulation is "model". Most of us work with models every day, frequently unaware of the fact that we are doing so. There are three general types of models: two-dimensional, three-dimensional, and descriptive. The last one may be divided into two kinds, mathematical and verbal. A very general definition of a model is: **THE STATIC REPRESENTATION OF RELEVANT REALITY.**²

"Static" is a key word in this definition. It is necessary for a model to "stand still" long enough to be described whether that description be two-dimensional, three-dimensional, mathematical, or verbal. In other words, the "state"³ of reality at any given time lends itself to being modeled.

Examples of two-dimensional "state" or static representations of relevant reality are maps, blue prints, and pictures. Common examples of three-dimensional static representations of reality are mock-ups, wind-tunnel aerodynamic shapes, automobiles, trains, pipelines, and buildings. These may be constructed on almost any scale desired by the user. Einstein's equation for energy (E=MC²) is an example of a mathematical model. Scenarios which describe the opening setting for a "cold war game" are examples of verbally described models.

The three-dimensional model suggests another key word in this definition of model. That word is "relevant". The engineer who places a model airplane in a wind tunnel is not interested in the bombardment system or the communications gear to be associated with the end product;

²Colonel William Thane Minor, Simulation Briefing, ICAF, October 1968.

³For excellent discussion on the "State" of models see *Simulation Using Digital Computers* by Evans, Wallace & Sutherland, Prentice/Hall Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1967.

2

they are not relevant to his problem. He is therefore not likely to
place scaled versions of radios or bombing devices in his aerodynamic
model.

During the past decade, "war game" has become a very popular term, with
almost as many meanings as users. It has been used this month by the
news media to describe current NATO exercises. It is frequently used
to describe highly detailed analyses which use operations research and
system analysis techniques for complex target selection, penetration
tactics, and damage assessment. The term "war game" is also applied
to structured efforts involving teams of individuals "brainstorming"
a common problem from different perspectives. None of these "meanings" is
technically incorrect. A definition which can satisfy all "types" of
war games, however, is:

THE PURPOSEFUL DYNAMIC REPRESENTATION OF THE RELEVANT
SEGMENTS OR AGGREGATES, SOMETIMES BOTH, OF MILITARY
REALITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LESS THAN PERFECT INFORMATION.⁴

This definition becomes applicable to other types of games through
the substitution of an appropriate designator for the word "military";
e.g., business (games), industry, international affairs, urban expansion,
economic, diplomacy, etc.

Several key words in the definition are: purposeful, dynamic,
relevant, segments, aggregates, and imperfect information.

For a game of any type to be effective, there must be an objective,
or reason, for examining a representation of reality. Therefore, the
game must have a specific aim--be purposeful.

A game is dynamic in that it represents change over a period of
time. As hypothetical events occur, decisions are made and variables
change. The "state" of the model, at cycle points of game time, may
be examined. One of the assets of gaming, in fact, is the ability to
examine "slices" of reality in a "changing" environment.

The very fact that one examines factors in a fictitious environ-
ment instead of waiting on the real world makes it important that only
the relevancies of that which is under examination be included in the
gaming environment. Managing data and manipulating it in meaningful
ways is difficult at best. It is, therefore, most important to include
in the game only those factors which are preceived as relevant to the
situation--the goals and the perspective of the gaming environment.

⁴Colonel William Thane Minor, Simulation Briefing, ICAF, October 1968.

3

Portions of a game may include representative segments of reality while other portions may use aggregation. For example, in a simulated global strategic nuclear exchange, every sortie in a strike plan may be included while the reliability of the aircraft which represents that sortie may be an aggregation of data collected from thousands of sorties flown by aircraft of that specific type--or it may be the aggregation of all the assumed, or calculated, mean-time-to-failure rates for all the systems which make that aircraft operational.

In all games, each team has less-than-perfect intelligence about its opponents. Moreover, this is true even in a "one-sided" game where one may test many theories concerning the "what if" capabilities of a theoretical enemy (opponent).

At the Industrial College, the term "simulation" is used rather than "game". This is primarily because "war" is bad and "games" are sometimes thought of as frivolous. While all (war games are simulations, not all simulations are (war) games. Therefore, simulation may be defined as **THE PURPOSEFUL DYNAMIC REPRESENTATION OF RELEVANT REALITY.**⁵

## WHY SIMULATION?

It is logical to discuss the "why" of simulation before discussing the "how", since the reasons for simulation usually dictate the methods used. There are four primary reasons why simulation can be useful: economy, research, education, and management.

Economy of time, risk, manpower and dollars are key factors which may make simulation useful. In the real world, it may be costly, or even impossible, to wait for feedback resulting from required decisions or for the results from suggested contingencies or selectable alternatives. In simulations, one may develop synthetic circumstances in which decisions relating to contingencies or alternatives may be tested with resulting feedback, over very short periods of time-in other words, the exploring of "what if's".

Decreasing risk, particularly where safety of people and property is concerned, has been a function of simulation for many years. The old Link Trainer is a very good example; it's much safer to "dive" a Link Trainer into the "ground" than it is to misread the altimeter during a descent under actual instrument conditions in a real airplane. Since war is too dangerous to fight, the war game type of simulation takes on extremely important significance, and, without doubt, has made invaluable contributions to the peace of this nation...notwithstanding a minority of current opinions to the contrary.

⁵Ibid.

4

The economy of manpower is apparent in simulations where one
individual may represent a group, an organization or a political entity
or where a small group of individuals may represent an entire nation.

Simulations which describe the 'state' or changing 'states' of
reality whether two-dimensional, three-dimensional, verbal or math-
ematical usually cost fewer dollars than programs operating within
reality for the same purpose.

In the area of research, simulation has made significant contribu-
tions not as research per se, but as one of the tools of research.
For example, insights into problems not previously foreseen have
resulted from war games, thus contributing both to the research
process and to national security. Among these contributions are:
air and ground alert, dispersal, hardening, mobility, timely actions
on logistic support, manpower requirements, political and diplomatic
actions, and many others.

The third area, education, is one of the most important reasons for ICAF's interest in simulation. Education is perceived as a triad of teaching, training, and learning. The last of these descriptors, learning, is the one receiving major emphasis at the Industrial College. SIMCOM, through simulations used in the curriculum, has provided a unique environment which includes competition, problem immersion, decisionmaking, and rapid feedback. Such an environment produces involvement, interest, motivation, innovation, and creativity. With the environment and resultant behavior described, the end result for the participant (learner) should be easier, more rapid learning (sometimes both), lasting impressions, less rigid thinking, the ability to develop plans/strategy, and improved organizational ability.

Several organizations and scholars⁶ have shown that simulation
methods in education teach content as well as the best pedagogical
methods; moreover, they produce involvement and motivation to a higher
degree than anyother educational method.

The fourth area in which simulation has shown promise as a tool is
that of management. Decisionmaking is not only the prerogative of
management; it is a responsibility. For the manager, simulation can
provide useful insights into planning, proposed actions, contingencies,
and alternatives, as well as providing a testing environment. While
simulation can assist in decisionmaking, however, it should never be
considered 'the decisionmaker'.

⁶Snyder, Guetzkow, Herman, Coleman, Targ and The Foreign Policy Association of New York, among others.

5

Neither should simulations be considered competitive with scholarly
studies; the two should complement each other. Frequently, one will
cause the manager to realize he needs the other. For example, many
simulations have pointedly shown the need for better study and research
in a specific area. Conversely, many studies have dictated a need to
provide a simulated environment in which different courses of action
can be investigated.

THE "HOW" OF SIMULATION - THE EVOLUTION OF WAR GAMING

From Sun Tzu's "The Art of War" (400 B.C.) to Weikhmann's "King's Game" (1644) is approximately 2,000 years. During that period, the Chinese (perhaps) and the Indic Civilizations (certainly) gave to the world a "game", later to be called "chess".⁷ Approximately 200 years later, the Prussian Von Reisswitzes (father and son) originated the "Kriegspiel" which led in 1879 to the publication of the first American Kriegspiel, by Livermore. Until the 1930's, few other significant contributions were made to modern war gaming techniques.

In the last four decades, however, three significant factors have
provided the fundamental capability to perform meaningful simulation
in education. They are Von Neuman's game theory,⁸ the introduction
of operations research, and the evolution of digital computers.

As war games have developed over the centuries, they have been
of two general classifications, rigid and free. The rigid games have
been highly formalized, usually mathematical, while the free games
have been of the judgmental type where teams, or individuals, have
made the decisions which indicated the 'flow' of the game. It is this
writer's judgment that a combination of formalized and judgmental
inputs during the simulation provide the most effective learning
environment.

THE USERS OF SIMULATION

It was stated earlier that the "why" of simulation must precede
the "how" since the goals of simulation have a great influence on
the type of simulation used. The three major segments of this nation
currently using simulation are industry, government, and education.

⁷"Chess" is derived from the Sanskrit term "chaturanga" which means "four" (i.e., elephants, horses, chariots, and infantry).

⁸Later revised with the aid of Oskar Morgenstern. (Note: it is recognized that 'game theory' is based on probability theory which, of course, is much older.)

6

Some of the major industrial users are aerospace, automotive, and utility corporations. Personal visits to some of the largest organizations in these categories⁹ indicate use of simulation in mathematical and verbal descriptions (operations research), two dimensions (charting), and three dimensions (scale models and "segments" of production lines).

Users in government include NASA, the armed services, and an increasing number of departments. NASA, without doubt, has the most sophisticated three-dimensional simulators in existence, including spacecraft, such as Apollo, and the lunar module. Moreover, young potential managers are given training at Goddard that includes a management simulation called GREMEX (Goddard Research and Engineering Management Exercise).

All of the armed services use three types of simulations: cold war,¹⁰ limited war and general war. During the past decade, the most used of these have been the general war simulations, which have analyzed the problems of a thermonuclear exchange between major adversaries. In the author's opinion, the most interesting simulations conducted by the armed services are the "cold war" games, which are conducted to surface insights regarding problems of a political, diplomatic, economic, psychological, and military nature in an everyday world environment of "friends", "enemies", and "neutrals". (Note that "cold war" is spelled with lower-case letters, thus denoting total international relations and not the limitations of the so-called US/USSR "rapprochement" in Europe which, more recently, does not appear as much a rapprochement as some had perceived.)

While some government departments have been slow to adapt simulation methods to problem-analysis techniques, new efforts are in the offing. The State Department, for example, is currently experimenting in simulation research with Dr. Shure of System Development Corporation.¹¹

In education, the major users of simulation are civilian universities and military institutions. In universities, the widest use is in business schools, psychology departments, and political science/government departments (especially in the field of international relations). The military educational institutions using simulation include the academies, staff schools, war colleges, and the Industrial College.

⁹ Boeing; Lockheed, and Ford; visited during the past 2 years.

¹⁰Sometimes called "political/military games", "crisis games", "politico-military exercises", etc.

¹¹Letter, 17 October 1968, E. Raymond Platig, Director, Office of External Research, Department of State.

7

# THE CHOICE OF SIMULATIONS FOR THE INDUSTRIAL COLLEGE

When ICAF made a decision to enrich its curriculum through the use of simulation and computers, experienced officers in each field were assigned.¹²

With the establishment of SIMCOM, it was determined that simulations must complement the curriculum and that they must make use of automatic data processing systems. There are two reasons for the latter policy: 1) the value to ICAF students of learning the strengths and limitations of computers, and 2) the ability of simulation participants to examine more alternatives in decisionmaking when computers assist in the manipulation of data.

## SIMULATIONS TO COMPLEMENT THE ICAF CURRICULUM

The ICAF curriculum is divided into three major segments: national resources (natural, demographic, and business/industrial), international affairs, and Defense management procedures.

In the 1967/68 curriculum, a decision was made to continue the use of IBM's Business Management Simulation which had been used previously in a batch-processing mode. This simulation met the two criteria; that is, it complemented the curriculum and used automatic data processing. SIMCOM had originally hoped to time-share the model in order that the students could use remote terminals in asking "what-if" type questions prior to final decision inputs for each decision period. That goal could not be accomplished for the fall of 1967; but it has been achieved now, and participants are currently engaged in the activity at ICAF. The simulation began on 21 October and will run through 13 November, decision periods are scheduled no more frequently than every other day.

For the international relations phase of the curriculum, the World Politics Simulation (WPS) was selected. This simulation is an adaption of Professor Harold Guetzkow's Inter-Nation Simulation (INS),¹³ prepared by Professor William C. Coplin at Wayne State University under contract for the State Department. SIMCOM modified WPS, with the help of Dr. Coplin, and introduced it into the curriculum during January 1968.* Again, WPS met the criteria of curriculum orientation and use of computer programs to process data relevant to the simulation.

12. Captain James E. Forrest, USN, ADPS (succeeded by Colonel Lee S. Baumann, USAF) and Colonel W. T. Minor, USAF, Simulation.

13. Guetzkow, Harold, *Simulation in Social Sciences*, Chapter 7 (Prentice-Hall, Inc.: Englewood Cliffs, N. J., 1962).

*The SIMCOM modification of WPS was renamed, WPS II.

8

For the DOD portion of the curriculum, TEMPER (Technological, Economic; Military, and Political Evaluation Routine) was carried out, for the final time, in May 1968. While TEMPER made some contribution to the curriculum and certainly used automatic data processing, its alignment with course content was meager and its use of the computer too rigid, leaving little opportunity for the participants to make effective decisions during the TEMPER runs. Therefore, a trial run with 20 students and faculty members was made, concomitantly with the TEMPER runs, using the Program Management Simulation Exercise (PMSE) developed by management consultants Peat, Marwick, and Livingston for the Defense Weapon Systems Management Center.¹⁴ The PMSE exercise was enthusiastically received by the participants and faculty. It has therefore replaced TEMPER in the curriculum and, after receiving SIMCOM modifications, has been renamed the Defense Management Simulation (DMS).

## TO TIME-SHARE OR NOT TO TIME-SHARE

Prior to the establishment of SIMCOM, the accepted idea at ICAF was to install a computer. Fortuitously, in early 1967, the long-awaited time-shared systems were becoming reality. More importantly, they were coming into existence as workable, effective devices and "in a competitive environment." As such; they seemed a viable alternative to computer installation, an alternative promptly explored by SIMCOM and accepted. Major considerations in this decision were cost, versatility, and reliability.

It was obvious that reliability would be an important consideration in all simulations at ICAF. Scheduling is a key factor in the ICAF curriculum. There were schedules during the WPS II-68 simulation that allowed only one and a half hours for the input/output routines between game decision periods. The coded input and printed output required one hour and twenty minutes--leaving little time for computer faults. Through time-sharing, SIMCOM solved this problem by providing back-up capability with other computers and gained reliability through redundancy.

Multiple time-shared systems also provided more versatility, and the cost is less than one percent (1%) per year of the original estimates for installing one average computer at ICAF.¹⁵

¹⁴DWSMC is located at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base and operated under the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Its purpose is to train officers as managers (Project managers) of weapon systems under development.

¹⁵Original estimates for a computer were $2.5 million. Estimates for software, environmental modifications, and personnel were an additional $3 million. SIMCOM leases time from several different time-shared systems for less than $0.1 million per year.

9

Time-sharing from commercial systems in a competitive environment has assured SIMCOM of the latest reliable state-of-the-art hardware and software versatility for any requirements extant.¹⁶

## MODIFYING BATCH¹⁷ SIMULATIONS TO TIME-SHARED SYSTEMS

The simulations selected for use in the ICAF curriculum were "on the shelf" (that is, in existence and operational) when SIMCOM was organized. The problem to be solved was that of adapting them to the time-shared systems available to ICAF. In order to illustrate this type of problem, some of the procedures used in adapting the WPS will be illustrated.

In selecting the World Politics Simulation (WPS) for inclusion in the ICAF curriculum, a primary consideration was that the model be readily adaptable to ICAF's need. Thus, while minor modifications and elaborations were made, the basic structure of the model was retained.

Of course, the more complete programing of the basic model to operate in a time-shared mode represented a fairly important change. It made feed-back more rapid and gave the simulation greater continuity. For example, when armed conflict broke out between two or more nations, it was possible through time-sharing to have the results of the conflict back to the participants almost immediately.

Another fairly important change arose from the decision to assign the names of actual nations to the teams. Prior to the ICAF runs, fictitious names had been assigned to the nation-teams. The attributes (variables and parameters) characterizing simulated nations were more or less prototypic of general nation types; e.g., economically highly developed democracy, economically underdeveloped autocracy, or economically developed or underdeveloped totalitarian dictatorships. In assigning the names of actual nations to these teams, it was logical to alter and adjust the variables and parameters characterizing them so as to correspond more closely to the attributes of the referent nations and/or to produce results more consonant with the actual operations of these nations.

¹⁶Time-shared systems include GE, IBM, and SDS.

¹⁷"Batch" processing means running one set of programs at a time. Turn-around time may be a few minutes or a few days, usually several hours at best.

10

Because of the primary concern for illuminating the problems of formulation and implementation of national policy, some aspects of the model were made more highly structured so as to emphasize governmental decisionmaking. For example, in WPS II each team represented the government of a nation and as such had veto power over any trade arrangement made with another nation. The team members did not, however, negotiate specific trades as they had done in previous versions of WPS. They simply accepted or rejected proposed trades provided by Control. In making this change, the assumption was that actual trades are negotiated by the business and economic leaders within a nation and not by people in the upper policymaking levels of government. To require participants to conduct such negotiations would have been to divert them from those functions of policymaking and execution with which they should have been most concerned.

As with almost any simulation, the WPS II model will always be subject to revision and improvement. There are current efforts in this process; by the time it is used again (February 1969) substantial improvements are anticipated. Of course, it is not suggested that this will be a final product, but it should be a positive step in the process of building an ever more useful simulation.

## COMPUTER CONSIDERATIONS INVOLVED IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF WPS II AT ICAF

Examples of some of the problems involved in converting the WPS computer programs to operate on another system may be instructive.

WPS was originally programed in the "GE Time-Sharing FORTRAN" for the GE 265 system (this language is a version of FORTRAN II). In order to run WPS for four simultaneous "games" within severe time constraints, it was necessary to find a time-sharing facility possessing rapid response and a capacity for large disk files with quick access capability. The GE 605 system at Missile and Space Division, Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, was chosen.

The first step was to convert the original programs to the Valley Forge version of FORTRAN IV. Even though the FORTRAN language comes closer than many other languages to being truly machine-independent, the differences between these two time-sharing versions of the FORTRAN language were surprising and troublesome. Detailed actions taken by SIMCOM were as follows:

a. Statement labels formerly alpha-numeric had to be changed to pure numeric.

11

b. The earlier version permitted the programmer to designate any alpha character, as the initial character of any variable, representing either an integer or real number. All variables had to be searched out and made to conform to FORTRAN IV conventions.

c. In the earlier version, the arithmetic "IF" statement did not require three statement numbers; for FORTRAN IV, these had to be assigned and accounted for.

d. Since the 605 compiler would not accept "non-operating statements", all such statements left over from the revision process had to be located and deleted.

e. All input/output statements, the identification of continuation lines and comments, and format statements using continuation lines had to be rewritten.

In view of the above, the simplest course of action was to recode the programs entirely. Further, it was decided to take advantage of the fast response of a time-sharing system to provide immediate results when a "war" occurred, replacing the hand-calculation previously used.

The data base for each nation was quite large, about 1800 computer words (four characters per word). Due to a restriction on the size of individual disk-files in the original system, each nation's data base had been divided into two separate files. This proved to be inefficient and too slow.

Since the 605 system could accommodate larger individual disk-files, each nation's data base was transferred from the 265 disk onto punched paper tape--two tapes for each nation. When an attempt was made to read these tapes into the 605 system, it was discovered that they were completely unacceptable and unreadable, since they were "non-parity" and the 605 system required "parity". The only solution was to write a special program to read in the original tapes and punch out tapes converted to the correct form. This was done on a PDP-8 computer. The problem of joining up each nation's pair of tapes into one file was resolved, but not without difficulty. The listings of each nation's data base had to be laboriously checked and proofed and, as might be expected, corrected.

SIMCOM considers these problems that may reasonably be expected when programs and files are transferred between different systems. Further, the conversion effort was complicated by the fact that the 605 system was relatively new at the time; a certain number of problems can normally be expected under such circumstances.

12

In order to produce teletype-printed outputs within the short time allowed, it was necessary to streamline the principal report. The revised program realized a 50 to 60 percent saving in print time. Also, a number of safety features were developed, such as having the computer specify the exact input data required at any specific time, the capability of correcting input data after transmittal to the computer, and a confirmation check of the specific game being run in order to maintain file integrity.

Experience with time-sharing at ICAF has taught one essential fact: If system response must be received within a relatively short period of time, as was the case for the four simultaneous WPS II games, a back-up system is mandatory. For WPS II, this was provided by the GE facility at Syracuse, New York, where the programs and data-base files were loaded on-site prior to the running of the simulation. Following the run of each decision period, the updated files for all games were immediately transferred to punched paper tape, which was then used to create new files at the Syracuse facility. This bit of prudence paid off handsomely. At one point during the run of the second decision period, there were over 50 users on-line in the Valley Forge system at the same time. Three times, a weird BIT-configuration received from an unidentifiable remote terminal caused the system to go down, each time for about fifteen minutes. Each ICAF terminal operator shifted to the Syracuse system as he was affected, and, with a minimum of rerunning, completed the job. None of the simulation participants knew of the difficulty. While the original motivators which influenced SIMCOM's decision for time-sharing were economy, versatility, and reliability serendipity has played its part in this two-year venture.

During this second year, all simulations will allow the participants the prerogative of "communicating" with the model prior to final decisions required at the end of each game period. This may become the most valuable contribution to the learning process, since interaction with the model-- that is, adjusting variable values for a given state of the model--can provide learning insights not otherwise produced. While this is not true simulation interaction,¹⁸ it is an effort in that direction. With this type of man/machine interface, it will become possible to have more continuous simulation interaction, a SIMCOM goal.

¹⁸ Harvey A. Shapiro (Carnegie-Mellon University) defines interactive versus non-interactive as follows: "In current terminology, interactive and non-interactive describe the mode of play between a computer and a human. Interactive implies the ability to communicate with the computer at the time that the actual simulation is being processed."

13

PROBLEMS ENCOUNTERED AFTER MODEL MODIFICATION TO TIME-SHARING

Solving the problems of model modification for time-sharing was,
at times, the least of SIMCOM's worries. In first-year attempts to
introduce the students to time-sharing and motivate them to use the
remote terminals, efforts were considerably less than successful.
Time sharing was introduced by an instructor to groups of about 15
students. After a non-technical explanation of time sharing, the
terminal operation was demonstrated using a very simple "check list."
Following the second or third demonstration, students were asked to
try the terminal. Not only was there great reluctance, but some students
categorically refused "to demonstrate their lack of knowledge before
their peers." That was the key to the problem.

This year, SIMCOM has installed 15 terminals throughout the ICAF building. There is one in each of the 12 seminar rooms.<sup>19</sup> A COMPUTER TIME-SHARING USER'S MANUAL was designed for non-technical explanation of the time-shared systems available at ICAF; the manual contains a separate check list of operations for each system. A 15 minute briefing on the manual was given to all students prior to distribution of the manuals. One short paragraph in the foreword was emphasized:

> This manual has been prepared to assist you in making use of the time-sharing computer facilities available at the Industrial College. Try it! You cannot hurt the equipment or the computer. If you make a mistake, the worst that can happen is that you will be disconnect-ed. Simply re-dial the number and start over.<sup>20</sup>

For the complete novice, the TUTOR<sup>21</sup> series was suggested. For the sophisticated programer, the manual lists programs available in each system. These include business/accounting, mathematical/statistical,

<sup>19</sup>The 180 students are divided into 12 fifteen-man groups. Each group has a specific seminar room assigned as its base for group activities.

<sup>20</sup>Computer Time-Sharing User's Manual, SIMCOM, ICAF, 1968.

<sup>21</sup>TUTOR is the Philco-Ford series of CAI on BASIC, developed for General Electric.

14

and scientific/engineering programs in BASIC,²² FORTRAN IV,²³ and ALGOL.²⁴
One of the prime advantages of time-shared systems is the amount of
productive software available with each system. At no extra cost, SIMCOM
has available for students and faculty several hundred published software
programs, which result in significant savings in time and dollars compared
with the requirement of writing one's own program(s).

In addition to BASIC, FORTRAN, and ALGOL, SIMCOM plans to add TINT,
CAL, HELP, DDT, LISP, QED, SNOBOL, SYMBOLIC,²⁵ and a CAI compiler called
LYRIC.²⁶

The acceptance by ICAF students of the user's manual, and of working
at a terminal with no observers or instructors, has been outstanding.
Students previously unwilling to operate a terminal in front of their
peers are using the system in the new "unassisted" environment to such
a degree that SIMCOM budgets have required adjustment to provide funds
for unanticipated time-sharing costs.

Early problems encountered with the time-sharing systems included
busy signals due to insufficient lines or an inadequate communications
executive in the time-shared system. Down time on main systems is seldom
a problem with commercial systems, even short down times, however, reduce
system utility and user motivations.

Response times are too slow during peak usage periods on both govern-
ment and commercial systems. SIMCOM's judgment is that a delay of more
than 10 seconds is unacceptable. A maximum delay of 3 seconds is a
reasonable goal. Aborts during on-line programing (regardless of the
reason) sometimes require reprograming all the way back to the system
level. Better executive routines are needed to "save" programs automat-
ically, rather than forcing one back to system level. Line problems,
while not primarily a part of the time-shared system, are certainly a
part of the system as far as the user is concerned and should be
improved to reduce to near zero the parity difficulties which all too
frequently make communication between user and system impossible.

²²Beginners All-Purpose Symbolic Instruction Code, developed at Dartmouth College by Professor John H. Kemeny.

²³FORmula TRANslation, Fourth generation.

²⁴ALGOrithmic Language (some authors: ALGebraic Oriented Language).

²⁵The new capabilities will be provided by DIAL DATA, a commercial time-sharing company with operations in the Boston and Washington areas. (TINT is time-shared JOVIAL, scheduled to be available on Rome Air Development Center's G.E. 635/645.)

²⁶A compiler to be used as a pre-FORTRAN compiler, developed by Doctors Leonard and Gloria Silvern, University of California, Los Angeles.

15

FUTURE TIME-SHARING IMPROVEMENTS DESIRED

When one considers better time-sharing for the future, Professor Tom Schelling's<sup>27</sup> rhetorical question "How does one make a list of all the things he can't think of?" takes on pointed significance. One way to achieve such a list is to make a beginning. The following relevancies, little considered ten years ago, are good starting points.

Competition will probably drive the user cost to acceptable levels. So many new time-sharing companies are coming into existence, it is impossible to stay abreast of weekly numbers and their respective capabilities. This should result in improved service and reasonable cost. No doubt, companies poorly managed will fall by the wayside.

In addition to elimination of call-up delays and processing delays, more "push-button" type software must be developed for management-type users. Communications between consoles must be improved so that simulations can be monitored and controlled by the simulation's Control Team. That is, Control must maintain cognizance of all inter-team console messages, have the capability to deny messages prior to read-out by the recipient, and have the capability to maintain two-way communications with any or all teams at all times.

Consoles should be designed for at least three functions, each with variable capability. For example, the keyboard should offer the on-line programmer full capability and at the same time provide the novice with "push-button" type operation. There should be visual display, with the remote console using voice grade circuits with up to 2400 Baud<sup>28</sup> speed. The display should be color capable, with the color generator an integral part of the console. The third capability for tomorrow's console is hard-copy generation of data display. The printout capability should include total or selective hard copy, at the discretion of the user. It should not interfere with continuous use of the CRT.

Where ICAF has acquired multiple time-shared systems to provide reliability through redundancy, the successful commercial time-sharing companies of the future should provide this type of reliability as a part of their standard service.

Software for the user should be provided by the time-shared system in every increasing quantity, quality, and versatility. Certainly it

<sup>27</sup> Professor Thomas C. Schelling, Harvard Center for International Affairs, Consultant/Director for "Cold War Games" conducted during Minor's tour as Chief, Cold War Division, Joint War Games Agency, 1965/1966.

<sup>28</sup> Baud is an expression of BIT rate transmission. The 2400 Baud rate will fill a CRT in about 2 seconds.

16

should include many computer languages and programs in math, statistics, accounting, scientific applications, and engineering routines. In addition, the time-shared systems should provide complete simulation packages with self-instructional capabilities. There should also be large and versatile data bases to meet the needs of users from diverse disciplines. Eventually, the entire Library of Congress should be at the "finger tips" of the student, the researcher, and the scholar.

The amount of the central processing unit (CPU or "core") available to each user today is frequently too small. Time-shared systems of the future will probably solve this problem in a modular design which will be controlled by the system's executive routine in a manner not requiring the attention of the user, thus giving the illusion of unlimited capacity--analogous to the illusion of today's user that he is the only user on the system.

This paper has identified only a few of the problems associated with current time-shared systems. It does not claim a listing of all needed improvements. Perhaps, however, it may motivate capable specialists to attack some of the relevancies for improved time-sharing, especially where simulation as an educational tool is concerned.

17

ADDRESSES FOR THANE MINOR

Home--thru 20 August 1973

6010 Purdum Drive
Camp Springs, Maryland 20031

Phone: (301) 423-2739

--after 20 August 1973

5527 Pebble Springs
Greenwood Forest
Houston, Texas 77066

--alternate residence in Canada for six months

Apt 2001, The CONTINENTAL
Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2P2T1

Phone: (403) 265-0849

Office in Calgary--

409 8th Avenue, S.W.
Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2P0W9

Phone: (403) 266-6051

The RAND Corporation

KISSINGER, HENRY A. / M *

NEWTON N. MINOW
CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD

1700 MAIN STREET
SANTA MONICA, CALIFORNIA 90406

Please reply to
One First National Plaza
Suite 3200
Chicago, Illinois 60670

April 13, 1971

Dr. Henry Kissinger
Special Assistant to the President
The White House
Washington, D.C.

Dear Henry:

On behalf of Rand, we thank you most warmly for
joining us at dinner when Rand met in Washington
last week. We appreciated the opportunity to
exchange views, and we know how difficult it was
for you to take time from a back-breaking
schedule to join us.

Please call upon us if we can be of any help to
you.

NNM/hh

KISSINGER, HENRY A. /m*

THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON

Dear Mrs. Mitchell:

I very much enjoyed meeting you last week-end and appreciate your thoughtfulness in allowing the Douglass' and I to stand with you as your husband left to board the spacecraft. It was a most poignant moment for us all and I understand and share the great pride you must feel.

We have all been following the progress of the lunar mission this week and have felt a very real sense of awe in watching your husband take those first steps.

I look forward to seeing you and your family again and hope you will not hesitate to call my office when you are next in Washington. If Karlyn and Elizabeth have not been to the White House before I would be delighted to arrange a special tour.

Mrs. Edgar Dean Mitchell
18402 Kingston Court
Nassau Bay, Texas

FEB 17 1971

KISSINGER, HENRY A.

telephone 5/5/70

MOLDEN

Type of Request & Date

(Last name and pending date)

Name: Fritz Molden, Publisher, Vienna

Request: Amb. Gruber of Austria called to say this gentleman would be in town Sat. & Sun of this week (but would stay until Monday if HAK could see him). The Amb. believed this man had published a couple of HAK's books and said he was also an old friend.

DRY's Recommendation:

HAK's Answer:

Date and Time: 013E

Party Contacted:

Additional Information:

Resolution:

x

KISSINGER, HENRY A.

/M*

Prof. Makoto Momoi
National Defense College
201 Nakameguro 2 chome
Moguro-ku, Tokyo, Japan

Would very much like to see you. I will be in California through Sept. 6.
Is there any possibility that you could stay in the U.S. through Sept. 7 or
8, so that we might meet in Washington after my return? Please call
Coleman Hicks of my office, 714/492-0011, when you arrive in the U.S.
to see what can be arranged.

Henry V. Kissinger

Warm regards,

to see what can be arranged.

Coleman Hicks of my office, 714/435-0011, when you arrive in the U.S.

8, so that we might meet in Washington after my return? Please call
Is there any possibility that you could stay in the U.S. through Sept. 7 or
Would very much like to see you. I will be in California through Sept. 6.

Mogura-ku, Tokyo, Japan
501 Nakaguro S chome
National Defense College
Prot. Makoto Momoi

KISSINGER, HENRY V.

K

NONE

CONFERENCE

YEAR PROFESSOR MIMI JDA TOKYO

WISCONSIN

REGRETTABL

WASHINGTON

DOCTOR HENRY A KISSINGER WHITE HOUSE

LT

TOKYO 53 18 1335

USNA HL JBIT 055

K AMM029 VIA ITT JMA961 DTR408 MR88/44

WHB035 KAG51

GENERAL

KISSINGER, HENRY A. /M*/ [L/C]

The White House
Washington

1971 AUG 5 AM 8 50

WN1 47 VIA RCA

TOKYO 1420, AUG. 4, 1971

DR HENRY A KISSINGER

THE WHITE HOUSE

MANY THANKS FOR YOURS OF JULY 28 EYE WONDER IF YOU COULD

POSSIBLY FIND TIME TO SEE ME INFORMALLY EITHER BEFORE

OR AFTER US JAPAN SEMINAR SCHEDULED BETWEEN SEPTEMBER

FIRST AND THIRD AT RACINE WISCONSIN MOMOI DEFENSE AGENCY

TOKYO

PROF. MAKOTO * momoi

1971 AUG 5 AM 9 44

RECEIVED
KISSINGER'S OFFICE

FORM OBOS PRINTED BY THE STANDARD REGISTER COMPANY, U. S. A.

TOKYO

FIRST AND THIRD AT RACINE WISCONSIN MOMOI DEFENSE AGENCY
OR AFTER US JAPAN SEMINAR SCHEDULED BETWEEN SEPTEMBER
POSSIBLY FIND TIME TO SEE ME INFORMALLY EITHER BEFORE
MANY THANKS FOR YOURS OR JULY 88 EYE WONDER IF YOU COULD
THE WHITE HOUSE

DR HENRY A KISSINGER

TOKYO 1450. AUG. 4, 1971

WNI 43 VIA RCA

THE NATIONAL DEFENSE COLLEGE

2-1, Nakameguro 2 chome, Meguro-ku, Tokyo
JAPAN

June 5, 1971

Dr. Henry A. Kissinger
The White House
Washington D.C.

Dear Dr. Kissinger,

Mr. Yasuhiro Nakasone, defense minister, showed me your reply to his (dated April 20, 1971). I am extremely grateful to you for asking me to call on you. Unfortunately this time my visit was put off due to Mr. Melvin Laird's scheduled visit here, July 1-8. I most likely will be in Washington D.C. in September on my way to the ISS annual meeting. I look forward to meeting you then, if you are available.

Today, Mr. Nakasone asked me to inquire if you could possibly grant an interview to Mr. Seiichiro Ujiie, associate economic editor of The Yomiuri Shimbun. He will be in Washington D.C. for about a fortnight after June 15. He of course wishes to have the interview for publication. If that is not possible, please find time to give him a background interview.

Mr. Ujiie, a long friend of both Mr. Nakasone and myself, is an influential writer on economic affairs. What he writes might in fact affect the future of US-Japan economic relations. Your interview, Mr. Nakasone believes, might also serve your purpose.

He--and we--would be grateful if you let the Washington Bureau of The Yomiuri Shimbun (c/o National Press Bldg) know whether you could be available for the interview.

Mr. Nakasone sends his best wishes to you and renews his invitation to you to visit Japan anytime whenever you find time to do so.

cc: Defense Minister
Mr. S. Ujiie

②

HAK -personal files

F 6-11-11

GENERAL
KISSINGER, HENRY A.

KISSINGER, HENRY A./INJ./1971/FOREIGN

5/18/71

Dear Mr. Nakasone:

Thank you for your letter of April 20 advising me
of the visit of Professor Makoto Momoi to Wash-
ington. I recall meeting him during your visit to
the city last year and will be pleased to see him
during his stay here. Please ask him to contact
my office when he arrives so that we may arrange
an appointment.

I wish that I could accept your kind invitation to
come to Japan in the early summer. As I am sure
you understand, I am never in full control on my
own schedule and the demands of my job prevent
me from travelling too far from Washington.

I have made efforts in the past to surmount these
limitations, and will try again if the right time pre-
sents itself, as I would very much like to visit
Japan again. It has been too many years since I
have been there. Please stay in touch.

His Excellency
Yasuhiro Nakasone
State Minister
Director-General, Defense Agency
Tokyo, Japan

jlp:5/14/71

RECEIVED

MAR 1 0 1972

FILE

DEFENSE AGENCY

TOKYO JAPAN

April 20, 1971

My dear Dr. Kissinger,

This is a brief note to inquire if you could
possibly grant an interview to Professor Makoto
Momoi who is scheduled to be in Washington D.C.
between mid- and late June.

He will carry with him, and wish to hear your
views on, my personal message on some important
matters of our mutual interest.

Is there any chance that you might be able to
visit Japan as my guest sometime before early
July?

Please convey my best wishes to President Nixon.
With a fond memory of our meeting last September,
I look forward to another, earliest chance of
meeting you.