version 5 2022 9/11/14 2022 last revised by : saul bernstein 68 the est{e lauder companies inc . correlations calculated over the past 250-day period . the high , low and average measured value-at-risk during fiscal 2014 related to our foreign exchange contracts is as follows: .
what is the variation observed in the high and average foreign exchange contracts , in millions of dollars?
foreign exchange contracts $ 27.4 $ 7.4 $ 18.9 the model estimates were made assuming normal market conditions and a 95 percent confidence level . we used a statistical simulation model that valued our derivative financial instruments against one thousand randomly gen- erated market price paths . our calculated value-at-risk exposure represents an estimate of reasonably possible net losses that would be recognized on our portfolio of derivative financial instruments assuming hypothetical movements in future market rates and is not necessarily indicative of actual results , which may or may not occur . it does not represent the maximum possible loss or any expected loss that may occur , since actual future gains and losses will differ from those estimated , based upon actual fluctuations in market rates , operating exposures , and the timing thereof , and changes in our portfolio of derivative financial instruments during the year . we believe , however , that any such loss incurred would be offset by the effects of market rate movements on the respective underlying transactions for which the deriva- tive financial instrument was intended . off-balance sheet arrangements we do not maintain any off-balance sheet arrangements , transactions , obligations or other relationships with unconsolidated entities , other than operating leases , that would be expected to have a material current or future effect upon our financial condition or results of operations . recently issued accounting standards refer to 201cnote 2 2014 summary of significant accounting policies 201d of notes to consolidated financial statements for discussion regarding the impact of accounting stan- dards that were recently issued but not yet effective , on our consolidated financial statements . forward-looking information we and our representatives from time to time make written or oral forward-looking statements , including statements contained in this and other filings with the securities and exchange commission , in our press releases and in our reports to stockholders . the words and phrases 201cwill likely result , 201d 201cexpect , 201d 201cbelieve , 201d 201cplanned , 201d 201cmay , 201d 201cshould , 201d 201ccould , 201d 201canticipate , 201d 201cestimate , 201d 201cproject , 201d 201cintend , 201d 201cforecast 201d or similar expressions are intended to identify 201cforward-looking statements 201d within the meaning of the private securities litigation reform act of 1995 . these statements include , without limitation , our expectations regarding sales , earn- ings or other future financial performance and liquidity , product introductions , entry into new geographic regions , information systems initiatives , new methods of sale , our long-term strategy , restructuring and other charges and resulting cost savings , and future operations or operating results . although we believe that our expectations are based on reasonable assumptions within the bounds of our knowledge of our business and operations , actual results may differ materially from our expectations . factors that could cause actual results to differ from expectations include , without limitation : ( 1 ) increased competitive activity from companies in the skin care , makeup , fragrance and hair care businesses , some of which have greater resources than we do ; ( 2 ) our ability to develop , produce and market new prod- ucts on which future operating results may depend and to successfully address challenges in our business ; ( 3 ) consolidations , restructurings , bankruptcies and reorganizations in the retail industry causing a decrease in the number of stores that sell our products , an increase in the ownership concentration within the retail industry , ownership of retailers by our competitors or ownership of competitors by our customers that are retailers and our inability to collect receivables ; ( 4 ) destocking and tighter working capital management by retailers ; ( 5 ) the success , or changes in timing or scope , of new product launches and the success , or changes in the tim- ing or the scope , of advertising , sampling and merchan- dising programs ; ( 6 ) shifts in the preferences of consumers as to where and how they shop for the types of products and services we sell ; ( 7 ) social , political and economic risks to our foreign or domestic manufacturing , distribution and retail opera- tions , including changes in foreign investment and trade policies and regulations of the host countries and of the united states ; 77840es_fin.indd 68 9/12/14 5:11 pm .