The local radio station will not win the regional ratings race this year. In the past ten years the station has never finished better than fifth place in the ratings. The station' s manager has not responded to its dismal ratings by changing its musical format or any key personnel, while the competition has often sought to respond to changing tastes in music and has aggressively recruited the region' s top radio personalities. The reasoning in which one of the following is most similar to that in the argument above? ["All lions are mammals. Ttherefore Leo, the local zoo's oldest lion, is a mammal too.", 'Recently stock prices have always been lower on Mondays. Ttherefore they will be lower this coming Monday too.', 'Only trained swimmers are lifeguards, so it follows that the next lifeguard at the local pool will be a trained swimmer.', 'Every swan I have seen was white. Ttherefore all swans are probably white.']