['To determine whether baseline drusen load, as measured using spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD OCT), is a useful predictor of development of advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD).', 'Retrospective cohort study.', 'setting: Academic clinical practice. study population: All patients with non-neovascular AMD and no retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) atrophy at baseline who were seen between 2007 and 2012 in a single academic retina practice. A minimum of 1 year of follow-up was required. observation: Drusen load (area and volume) was assessed using automated SD OCT software algorithms. main outcome measure: RPE atrophy area, assessed using an automated SD OCT software algorithm, and the development of neovascular AMD.', 'Eighty-three patients met the inclusion criteria with a mean age of 80 years and a mean follow-up time of 2.8 years. Repeated-measures analysis of variance showed an association between drusen area (P = .005) and drusen volume (P = .001) and the development of RPE atrophy. We also found an association between drusen area (P = .001) and drusen volume (P = .001) and the development of neovascular AMD.'] Does optical coherence tomography-based measurement of drusen load predict development of advanced age-related macular degeneration?