Journalist: The trade union members at AutoFaber Inc. are planning to go on strike. Independent arbitration would avert a strike, but only if both sides agree to accept the arbitrator' s recommendations as binding. However, based on past experience, the union is quite unlikely to agree to this, so a strike is likely. Which one of the following arguments exhibits a pattern of reasoning most similar to that exhibited by the journalist's argument? ["Lopez will run in tomorrow's marathon. Lopez will win the marathon only if his sponsors do a good job of keeping him hydrated. But his sponsors are known to be poor at keeping their athletes hydrated. So it is probable that Lopez will not win the marathon.", "Rodriguez will donate her paintings to the museum only if the new wing is named after her. The only other person the new wing could be named after is the museum's founder, Wu. But it was decided yesterday that the gardens, not the new wing, would be named after Wu. So Rodriguez will donate her paintings to the museum.", 'The company will downsize unless more stock is issued. Furthermore, if the company downsizes, the shareholders will demand a change. Since no more stock is being issued, we can be sure that the shareholders will demand a change.', 'The new course in microeconomics is offered either in the fall or in the spring. The new course will be offered in the spring if there is a qualified instructor available. Since the economics department currently lacks a qualified instructor for such courses, however, the course will not be offered in the spring.']