Scientific and technological discoveries have considerable effects on the development of any society. It follows that predictions of the future condition of societies in which scientific and technological discovery is particularly frequent are particularly untrustworthy. The argument depends on assuming which one of the following? ['It is not as difficult to predict scientific and technological discoveries in a technologically more advanced society as it is in a technologically less advanced society.', 'The development of a society requires scientific and technological discoveries.', 'Predictions of scientific and technological discoveries or predictions of their effects have harmful consequences in some societies.', 'Forecasts of scientific and technological discoveries, or forecasts of their effects, are not entirely reliable.']