Garbage in this neighborhood probably will not be collected until Thursday this week. Garbage is usually collected here on Wednesdays, and the garbage collectors in this city are extremely reliable. However, Monday was a public holiday, and after a public holiday that falls on a Monday, garbage throughout the city is supposed to be collected one day later than usual. The argument proceeds by ['treating something that is probable as though it were inevitable', 'generalizing about all actions of a certain kind on the basis of a description of one such action', 'treating several pieces of irrelevant evidence as though they provide support for the conclusion', 'providing information that allows application of a general rule to a specific case']