The older a country is, the more likely it is to be ruled by a monarch. Thus, since most countries are not ruled by monarchs, if a country is particularly new it is probably not ruled by a monarch. The pattern of reasoning in the argument above is most similar to that in which one of the following arguments? ['Most novels are not made into movies. However, the more popular a movie is, the more likely it is that the movie was based on a novel. Thus, if a novel is particularly popular, it will probably be made into a movie.', 'Most novels are not made into movies. Moreover, if a novel is particularly unpopular, it will probably not be made into a movie. Thus, the more popular a novel is, the more likely it is to be made into a movie.', 'Most novels are not made into movies. However, the more popular a novel is, the more likely it is to be made into a movie. Thus, if a movie is quite unpopular, it was probably not based on a novel.', 'Most novels are not made into movies. However, the more popular a novel is, the more likely it is to be made into a movie. Thus, if a novel is quite unpopular, it will probably not be made into a movie.']