People try to predict the world's development path or seek oversimplified and one-way solutions, and we should all remain skeptical, because the world situation is extremely complex. The analysis of development trends provides a more intricate and complex when we look to the future. Perspectives, we focus our attention on decision analysis. Correct understanding of this text? ['Development trend analysis can avoid the tendency of simplification to a certain extent.', 'Simplified thinking is meaningless to recognize the development path of the world.', 'Development trend analysis is an accurate trend prediction method.', 'Given the extreme complexity of the world situation, forecasting development trends is futile.']