John wants to win the annual Mayfield raffle next year because he needs the Mayfield raffle' s prize. If he enters more than one raffle next year, the likelihood of his winning one of them would be greater than if he entered only a single raffle. Hence, to have this greater likelihood of winning the Mayfield prize, John should enter several other raffles next year. The argument exhibits which one of the following flaws in reasoning? ['confusing the likelihood that at least one event in a set of events will occur with the likelihood that a designated event in that set will occur', 'assuming that an event, if it is highly improbable, cannot possibly occur', "presupposing that a person's strong desire for a certain outcome increases the likelihood that the actual outcome will be as desired", 'assuming without warrant that a person will be successful if the person engages only in those activities that are likely to be successful']