Psychologist: We asked 100 entrepreneurs and 100 business managers to answer various questions and rate how confident they were that their responses were correct. While members of each group were overconfident, in general the entrepreneurs were much more so than the business managers. This indicates that people who are especially overconfident are more likely to attempt to start a business in spite of the enormous odds against success than people who are less confident. Which one of the following, if true, lends the most support to the psychologist's conclusion? ['Another survey showed that degree of confidence was highly correlated with success in business.', 'At least some of the entrepreneurs surveyed had accurately determined before attempting to start their businesses what the odds were against their attempts being successful.', "How confident each person surveyed was that his or her answers to the questions asked were correct corresponded closely to that person's confidence in his or her business acumen.", 'The business managers who were most overconfident were found to have attempted to start businesses in the past.']