Driver: My friends say I will one day have an accident because I drive my sports car recklessly. But I have done some research, and apparently minivans and larger sedans have very low accident rates compared to sports cars. So trading my sports car in for a minivan would lower my risk of having an accident. The reasoning in the driver's argument is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that this argument ['misinterprets evidence that a result is likely as evidence that the result is certain', 'infers a cause from a mere correlation', 'relies on a source that is probably not well-informed', 'mistakes a condition sufficient for bringing about a result for a condition necessary for doing so']