Fair value assets on bank balance sheets are classified into three categories: (i) those which are easy to value and based on quoted market prices (level 1 (L1) assets); (ii) those that are harder to value and only partially derive from quoted market prices (level 2 (L2) assets); and (iii) those that are particularly complex and the valuation of which is based on models instead of observed prices (level 3 (L3) assets). While the accounting standards provide the principles for the allocation of assets to the L2/L3 categories, they also leave some room for interpretation, which can result in different choices across banks. Valuation uncertainties can be problematic in times of stress should they lead investors to mistrust the value of banks’ assets, and in turn trigger liquidity or deleveraging pressures – not least if valuations behave in a correlated manner across banks or are concentrated in systemic banks. Worsening market liquidity conditions that would possibly also lead to reclassifications of assets into the L3 category could further amplify the effect. Against this background, this box first looks at the magnitude and distribution of L2/L3 assets in euro area banks’ balance sheets, and second at their impact on market perceptions of banks through the lens of price-to-book (P/B) ratios during normal and stressed times. - 29 May 2019 - FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2019Details - Abstract - Despite criticism in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the ratings assigned by the major credit rating agencies continue to play a key role for fixed income investors. Credit ratings can be considered as an overall assessment of the creditworthiness of non-financial and financial corporates. As acquiring information can be costly, they are particularly relevant for the investment decisions of fixed income investors. The classification of issuers and securities into investment grade and high yield strongly affects institutional demand and might amplify the cyclicality of banks’ asset prices and funding costs during a downturn. Against this background, this box examines trends in credit ratings of listed banks across major advanced economies with a special focus on the euro area and discusses potential financial stability implications. - 29 May 2019 - FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2019Details - Abstract - The market valuations of euro area banks have remained low since the global financial crisis, lagging behind those of many international peers. Price-to-book (P/B) ratios offer a yardstick of bank franchise value, where a P/B ratio greater than one suggests that a bank can generate market value commensurate to the value of its tangible assets. In this way, a P/B ratio lower than unity suggests investor concern about shareholder value, and manifests itself in a higher cost of capital should the bank opt to issue additional equity. This box investigates the determinants of P/B ratios, assessing to what extent bank and country-specific factors have contributed to hampering their recovery. - 29 May 2019 - FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2019Details - Abstract - Collateralised loan obligations (CLOs) – structured finance vehicles which repackage the credit risk of assets – hold around a third of the outstanding leveraged loans in Europe and the US. In parallel to the growth of leveraged loans, CLOs have almost doubled in size in the last five years. Most of the CLO tranches outstanding have been issued since 2016, when the underlying credit quality had already deteriorated through increased leverage and lower investor protection. In addition, CLO exposures tend to be relatively more concentrated in lower-rated leveraged loans. Amid recent developments in leveraged loan markets, this box focuses on financial stability risks deriving from CLOs. Weak corporate asset quality is a concern from a financial stability perspective. Distressed corporate debt has been the centrepiece of the high stock of non-performing loans (NPLs) of euro area banks. NPL stocks are a symptom of balance sheet difficulties faced by a large proportion of firms, which in turn may depress investment and employment, deprive banks of profitable lending opportunities, and therefore weigh on economic growth and the health of the banking sector itself. Policy uncertainty has remained elevated in recent years for the euro area and the broader global economy, at a time when the political landscape has become more fragmented. Political uncertainty has increased considerably since the global financial crisis in advanced economies. While political uncertainty is hard to capture in any single measure, heightened political fragmentation may complicate decision-making in national parliaments and could in certain instances potentially lead to policy instability. On this basis, a secular increase in the number of political parties during the past decades and a gradual decline in the voting share of the winning party suggests less cohesive political processes across constituencies. Independent of the attribution of political uncertainty to an underlying cause, swings in policy uncertainty have grown in recent years, with trade policy uncertainty gaining prominence due to growing trade protectionism. The extension of the UK’s membership of the EU agreed by the European Council on 10 April avoided a no-deal Brexit scenario over the FSR review period. But the risk of a no-deal scenario occurring at the end of the extension period cannot be excluded. The additional time should be used by both financial and non-financial sectors to continue to prepare for all possible contingencies, including a disorderly Brexit. Furthermore, banks should use the period in which the UK remains in the EU to make progress towards their target operating models within the timelines previously agreed with their supervisors. The countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) is one of the centrepieces of the post-crisis reforms that introduced macroprudential policy instruments and aims to protect the resilience of the financial system. As only a few euro area countries have activated the CCyB, macroprudential authorities currently have limited policy space to release buffer requirements in adverse circumstances. This special feature provides insights into the relevant macroprudential policy response under different macroeconomic conditions and a gradual build-up of cyclically adjustable buffers could be considered to help create the necessary macroprudential space and to reduce the procyclicality of the financial system in an economic and financial downturn. The financial system can become more vulnerable to systemic banking crises as the potential for contagion across financial institutions increases. This contagion risk could arise because of shifts in the interlinkages between financial institutions, including the volume and complexity of contracts between them, and because of shifts in the economic risks to which they are commonly exposed. Analysis of the euro area banking system’s interlinkages, using the newly available large exposure data, suggests that the system could be more vulnerable to financial contagion through long-term interbank exposures than noted in other studies. That said, common exposures to the real economy – a standard contagion channel in the literature – represent a potential source of individual bank distress and non-systemic events. This analysis also provides an insight into the changes in contagion risk in the system over time, helping us to interpret changes in market indicators of systemic risk, such as aggregated credit default swap (CDS) prices. This special feature discusses the channels through which climate change can affect financial stability and illustrates the exposure of euro area financial institutions to risks from climate change with the help of granular data. Notwithstanding currently limited data availability, the analysis shows that climate change-related risks have the potential to become systemic for the euro area, in particular if markets are not pricing the risks correctly. A deeper understanding of the relevance of climate change-related risks for the euro area financial system at large is therefore needed. Better data availability and comparability and the development of a forward-looking framework for risk assessments are important aspects of this work going forward. Over the last decade, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have grown at a fast pace both globally and in the euro area. ETFs typically offer low-cost diversified investment opportunities for investors. ETF shares can be bought and sold at short notice, making them efficient and flexible instruments for trading and hedging purposes. At the same time, the wider use of ETFs may also come with a growing potential for transmission and amplification of risks in the financial system. This special feature focuses on two such channels arising from (i) liquidity risk in ETF primary and secondary markets and (ii) counterparty risk in ETFs using derivatives and those engaging in securities lending. While ETFs still only account for a small fraction of investment fund asset holdings, their growth has been strong, suggesting a need for close monitoring from a financial stability and regulatory perspective, including prospective interactions with other parts of the financial system. On aggregate, bank profitability in the euro area has improved in recent quarters along with the cyclical recovery. However, the level of earnings for many banks is still below that required by investors and bank profitability is still vulnerable to a possible turnaround in the business cycle. This special feature looks at possible avenues for banks to reach more sustainable levels of profitability in the future. It highlights the need to overcome structural challenges in the form of low cost-efficiency, limited revenue diversification and high stocks of legacy assets (in some jurisdictions). Insurance companies’ derivative exposures are recognised to be a potential source of risk. For instance, in the midst of the global financial crisis, the global insurance conglomerate, American International Group (AIG), was rescued because of the significant losses on the credit default swap (CDS) portfolio held by its Financial Products subsidiary. Yet, there is limited evidence on the derivative exposures of European insurers. This box helps fill this gap by providing information on euro area insurers’ derivative exposures, and the counterparties with which transactions take place. The analysis is based on transaction-by-transaction data collected under the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR). Global and European regulation is progressively introducing the requirement for banks to have sufficient loss-absorption and recapitalisation capacity, extending beyond equity capital. From 2019 onwards, G-SIBs need to have a minimum volume of total loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC), while all banks in the EU are being progressively informed about their bank-specific minimum requirements for own funds and eligible liabilities (MREL), subject to individual transitional periods.