On September 6, 2017, the eye of Hurricane Irma traveled about 50 nautical miles to the north of the northern shore of Puerto Rico as a category 5 hurricane. Less than two weeks later, Hurricane Maria made landfall as a category 4 hurricane on the main island of Puerto Rico on the morning of September 20, 2017, with wind speeds up to 155 miles per hour. The center of the hurricane moved through southeastern Puerto Rico to the northwest part of the island, as shown in figure 1 below. In response to the request of the governor of Puerto Rico, the president declared a major disaster the day after each hurricane impacted Puerto Rico. Major disaster declarations can trigger a variety of federal response and recovery programs, including assistance through FEMA’s Public Assistance program. Under the National Response Framework, DHS is the federal department with primary responsibility for coordinating disaster response, and within DHS, FEMA has lead responsibility. FEMA’s Public Assistance program provides grant funding to state, territorial, local, and tribal governments, as well as certain types of private nonprofit organizations, to assist them in responding to and recovering from major disasters or emergencies. As shown in figure 2, Public Assistance program funds are categorized broadly as either “emergency work” or “permanent work.” Within those two broad categories are separate sub-categories. In addition to the emergency work and permanent work categories, FEMA’s Public Assistance program includes Category Z, which represents any indirect costs, any direct administrative costs, and any other administrative expense associated with a specific project. Given the immense scale and scope of devastation, disaster recovery in Puerto Rico is a complex and dynamic process involving a large number of entities. As shown in figure 3, implementing the Public Assistance program involves recovery partners from the federal government; the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico; and Puerto Rico government agencies, public corporations, municipalities, and eligible nonprofits in Puerto Rico. These recovery partners play a role in implementing the Public Assistance program by developing projects and providing or receiving grants and sub-grants (subawards). FEMA. FEMA administers the Public Assistance program in partnership with Puerto Rico and makes Public Assistance grant funding available to Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico Central Office of Recovery, Reconstruction and Resilience. Puerto Rico was required, as a condition to receiving Public Assistance grant funding, to establish an oversight authority supported by third-party experts and provide centralized oversight over recovery funds. In October 2017, the governor of Puerto Rico established the Central Office of Recovery, Reconstruction, and Resilience (central recovery office) to be the recipient for all Public Assistance funding consistent with the conditions provided in Amendment 5 to the President’s disaster declaration. The central recovery office is a non-federal entity that provides a subaward to an applicant to carry out part of the federal program. As a recipient of federal funds, the central recovery office must oversee subrecipients to ensure that they are aware of and comply with federal regulations. According to central recovery office officials, the office was also established to ensure coordination with FEMA across the numerous partners in recovery. Commonwealth agencies, local entities, and private non-profits. Puerto Rico’s agencies, such as the Department of Housing, and public corporations, such as the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, act as subrecipients. Specifically, they work with FEMA and the central recovery office to identify, develop, and implement Public Assistance projects. Local entities, including Puerto Rico’s 78 municipalities and eligible private non-profits that provide critical services, are also subrecipients of FEMA Public Assistance funding. As subrecipients, these entities receive subawards from the central recovery office to carry out work under the Public Assistance program. According to a November 2017 amendment to Puerto Rico’s major disaster declaration, FEMA must obligate all large project funding for Public Assistance permanent work through alternative procedures due to the extraordinary level of infrastructure damage caused by Hurricane Maria, as well as Puerto Rico’s difficult financial position. To develop projects under the Public Assistance program, FEMA and Puerto Rico officials are to collaborate to identify and document the damage caused by a disaster to a particular facility. These officials are to then use the damage description to formulate the scope of work—or activities required to fix the identified damage—as well as the estimated cost of these activities. Under the standard Public Assistance program, FEMA will fund the actual cost of a large project, and will increase or reduce the amount of funding based on the cost of completed eligible work. In contrast, in Puerto Rico, the alternative procedures require that the central recovery office and subrecipients work collaboratively with FEMA to develop a fixed cost estimate. According to FEMA officials, once this fixed cost estimate is agreed to and obligated, subrecipients have flexibility within that fixed cost estimate to rebuild in the manner that they find most appropriate. Subrecipients could do the actual work used to develop the fixed cost estimate, or they could put funds towards another FEMA approved project. Unlike the standard Public Assistance program, the subrecipient is responsible for actual costs that exceed the fixed cost estimate. If actual costs are less than the fixed cost estimate, the subrecipient may use all or part of excess funds for other eligible purposes, such as for additional cost-effective hazard mitigation measures to increase the resiliency of public infrastructure, as detailed in figure 4 below. Section 20601 of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 authorized FEMA, when using the alternative procedures, to provide assistance to fund the replacement or restoration of disaster-damaged infrastructure that provides critical services—such as medical and educational facilities—to an industry standard without regard to pre-disaster condition. It also allows for restoration of components not damaged by the disaster when necessary to fully effectuate restoration of the disaster-damaged components to restore the function of the facility or system to industry standards. For example, through the Act, FEMA may fund the restoration of a disaster-damaged school building—which provides a critical service—to accepted industry standards applicable to the construction of education facilities. Therefore, according to FEMA policy, if the school building was not up to industry standards, or in poor condition prior to the 2017 hurricanes, the Act allows FEMA to fund the restoration of this building to a better condition than it was in prior to the storms. Further, the Additional Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Relief Act of 2019 (Supplemental Relief Act), which was signed into law on June 6, 2019, provides additional direction to FEMA in the implementation of section 20601. Following the Supplemental Relief Act, FEMA issued additional guidance in September 2019 that includes information on eligibility and applicable industry standards. Since the 2017 hurricanes, FEMA has obligated nearly $6 billion in Public Assistance program funding for 1,558 projects across Puerto Rico, according to our analysis of FEMA’s data as of September 30, 2019 (see fig. 5). Specifically, FEMA had obligated approximately $5.1 billion for emergency work projects (categories A and B), $487 million for permanent work projects (categories C through G), and $315 million for management costs (Category Z). Of the nearly $6 billion FEMA has obligated, Puerto Rico has expended approximately $3.9 billion as of September 30, 2019—about 65 percent of total Public Assistance program obligations to Puerto Rico—to reimburse subrecipients for completed work. As shown in table 1, Puerto Rico has expended about $3.7 billion for emergency work projects, $39 million for permanent work projects, and $104 million for management costs. The majority of FEMA’s obligations and the funding Puerto Rico expended as of September 30, 2019, are for emergency work because these projects began soon after the disasters struck and focused on debris removal and providing assistance to address immediate threats to life and property. In contrast, permanent work projects take time to identify, develop, and ultimately complete as they represent the longer- term repair and restoration of public infrastructure, such as a sports center in Caguas, Puerto Rico, as shown in figure 6 below. FEMA and Puerto Rico officials identified challenges in developing Public Assistance projects in Puerto Rico. Specifically, they cited: (1) delays in establishing a cost estimating guidance for projects in Puerto Rico, (2) the large number of damaged sites that require finalized fixed cost estimates, and (3) challenges with the implementation of the flexibilities authorized by section 20601 of the Bipartisan Budget Act. Delays in establishing cost estimating guidance. Given the importance of reaching mutual agreement on fixed cost estimates for alternative procedures projects, FEMA and Puerto Rico have taken a deliberative approach to establishing the data and procedures that will be used to develop these fixed cost estimates. This includes, among other things, adapting the way FEMA estimates costs to the specific post- disaster economic conditions in the territory, including developing exceptions to FEMA’s cost estimating guidance. According to FEMA, these exceptions were developed to account for risk, including higher anticipated costs due to increased demand for labor, equipment, and materials in Puerto Rico’s post-disaster economy. To develop these exceptions, FEMA and the central recovery office established a Center of Excellence staffed with mutually agreed upon representatives. FEMA used cost estimators from RAND Corporation (RAND) as their chosen representatives, while the central recovery office hired separate contractors as their representatives. According to FEMA officials, the Center of Excellence was established, among other things, to involve Puerto Rico in developing cost estimating guidance and to ensure that the exceptions made to FEMA’s Cost Estimating Format were agreeable to both parties. However, this approach has been beset by delays. For example, it took nearly one year for Puerto Rico to hire its chosen representatives to the Center of Excellence. According to FEMA, the central recovery office did not select members for the Center of Excellence until February 2019, which delayed progress on the development of finalized fixed cost estimates for permanent work. In July 2019, FEMA leadership signed an agreement establishing the exceptions to FEMA’s cost estimating guidance based on an assessment conducted by a panel of FEMA engineers. These exceptions are intended to address certain costs specific to post-disaster conditions in Puerto Rico, for example adjustments to account for increased labor and material costs. Large number of damaged sites requiring a fixed cost estimate. In addition, FEMA and Puerto Rico officials have cited the large number of sites requiring damage assessments, project development, and mutually agreed-upon fixed cost estimates as a challenge. As of September 30, 2019, FEMA identified a total of 9,344 damaged sites in various stages of development. According to FEMA, 6,304 sites (67.5 percent of total sites identified) have completed damage assessments; 3,021 sites (32.3 percent of total sites identified) are pending the completion of damage assessments to begin project development; and 19 projects (0.2 percent of total sites identified) have finalized fixed cost estimates. According to FEMA guidance, October 11, 2019, was the deadline for completing fixed cost estimates for Public Assistance alternative procedures projects. However, on October 8, 2019, officials from the central recovery office requested an extension to the deadline, which FEMA granted. FEMA officials acknowledged that significant work remains on the part of Puerto Rico, subrecipients, and FEMA towards developing fixed cost estimates for all Public Assistance alternative procedures projects in Puerto Rico. According to FEMA officials, as of October 2019, FEMA and Puerto Rico are working together to establish specific time frames for the completion of fixed cost estimates. Implementation challenges with Section 20601 of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018. Puerto Rican government and FEMA officials identified challenges with the implementation of the flexibilities authorized by section 20601 of the Bipartisan Budget Act. As previously discussed, this section of the Act allows for the provision of assistance under the Public Assistance alternative procedures to restore disaster-damaged facilities or systems that provide critical services—such as medical and educational facilities to an industry standard without regard to pre-disaster condition. Officials from Puerto Rico’s central government stated that they disagreed with FEMA’s interpretation of the types of damages covered by section 20601 of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018. In response, FEMA officials in Puerto Rico stated they held several briefings with Puerto Rico’s central recovery office to explain FEMA’s interpretation of the section, and released new guidance in September of 2019. It is too soon to assess the impact this guidance may have on current and future projects, but we will continue to examine this in future work. We will continue to monitor the status of FEMA’s cost estimating process, the development of the remaining fixed cost estimates for permanent work and the impact of FEMA’s new guidance on the implementation of section 20601 of the Bipartisan Budget Act. As Puerto Rico is responsible for any costs that exceed fixed cost estimates for large infrastructure projects under the alternative procedures, FEMA has adapted its guidance for estimating costs to ensure that these estimates accurately reflect the total costs of Public Assistance projects. As previously mentioned, FEMA and Puerto Rico established a Center of Excellence to develop proposed exceptions to adapt FEMA’s Cost Estimating Format—the agency’s standard guidance used for Public Assistance cost estimating nationwide—to more accurately estimate costs in Puerto Rico. After consideration of these proposals, FEMA approved two exceptions: (1) a cost factor to account for local labor, equipment, and material costs in Puerto Rico, and (2) a future price factor and price curve to account for anticipated rises in construction costs over time due to the massive influx of disaster recovery funds, coupled with limited material and labor resources in Puerto Rico. Cost Factor: According to FEMA officials, during the development of a cost factor by the Center of Excellence, FEMA learned that Gordian, a company that provides local cost indices called RSMeans which FEMA uses as part of their standard Cost Estimating Format, was developing four localized cost indices to apply to San Juan, urban areas, rural areas, and remote island (the islands of Vieques and Culebra) areas of Puerto Rico. FEMA officials told us that these cost indices compile location-specific construction costs for each of the four areas. In 2019, a panel of FEMA engineers assessed the methodologies proposed by RAND, the Center of Excellence, and the RSMeans localized indices for Puerto Rico. On July 12, 2019, in agreement with the panel’s assessment, FEMA decided to use RSMeans’s localized cost indices to act as the cost factor for fixed cost estimates in Puerto Rico beginning on September 27, 2019. For fixed cost estimates developed before this date, FEMA used a different cost index that RSMeans had previously developed for San Juan. According to FEMA, cost estimates signed before September 27, 2019 using RSMeans’s San Juan cost index as the cost factor are considered final. Future Price Factor and Curve: According to FEMA officials, FEMA began using a future price factor—an economic model based on expected construction conditions to estimate construction costs across ten years—in July 2019 to estimate costs in Puerto Rico. FEMA is using this future price factor along with the cost factor. FEMA has also asked RAND to develop a future price curve, an analysis that will adjust as time goes on to account for changing economic conditions, to eventually replace the future price factor. FEMA estimates that RAND will take until November 2019 to develop the future price curve, and that the future price factor is being used in the meantime. FEMA officials stated that cost estimates produced using the future price factor are considered final and will not be eligible for revisions in the future once FEMA implements the future price curve. According to FEMA officials, the use of the cost factor combined with the future price factor and curve are intended to adapt FEMA’s cost estimating guidance to the specific post-disaster economic conditions in Puerto Rico. FEMA’s cost estimating guidance for Public Assistance fully or substantially met nine of the 12 steps from GAO’s Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide (GAO Cost Guide). However, the guidance partially met two and minimally met one of the remaining cost estimating steps, as shown in figure 7 below. The GAO Cost Guide outlines best practices for cost estimating and presents 12 steps that, when incorporated into an agency’s cost estimating guidance, should result in reliable and valid cost estimates that management can use to make informed decisions. A reliable cost estimate is critical to the success of any construction program. Such an estimate provides the basis for informed decision making, realistic budget formulation and program resourcing, and accountability for results. For example, FEMA, Puerto Rico and subrecipients rely on cost estimates to help ensure that funding is sufficient for the costs of the Public Assistance projects carried out under the fixed cost estimate. Accurate and reliable cost estimating is especially important in Puerto Rico where all large permanent Public Assistance projects are being developed under the alternative procedures, which require a fixed cost estimate that cannot be revised once the award is made. Given Puerto Rico’s financial situation, accurate cost estimates are necessary so that Puerto Rico has adequate funds to complete Public Assistance projects. For example, on the basis of our analysis, we determined that FEMA’s guidance fully met the step to “define the estimate’s purpose” because it describes the estimate’s purpose, level of detail required, and overall scope. In addition, the guidance provides a time frame for which the estimates must be developed and reach agreement. FEMA’s guidance substantially met another step, “identify the ground rules and assumptions”, because it provides measures to ensure assumptions are not arbitrary, are founded on expert judgments, and are documented. However, we rated this step as substantially met instead of fully met because FEMA’s guidance does not address all of GAO’s best practices for ground rules and assumptions. For example, it does not discuss the risk of an assumption being incorrect and the resultant effect on the cost estimate. Additionally, FEMA guidance substantially met the step to “document the estimate” because it contains, among other things, basic information about the project and the estimate; a description of the scope of work; the basis for the estimate; and supporting backup information. However, we assessed this step as substantially met instead of fully met because FEMA policy does not require documentation to include a discussion of high risk areas. Further, we found that FEMA’s guidance for cost estimating does not fully or substantially meet three steps: (1) conduct a sensitivity analysis; (2) obtain the data; and (3) conduct a risk and uncertainty analysis. Sensitivity analysis (Minimally met): We found that FEMA’s cost estimating guidance only minimally met the best practice regarding sensitivity analysis. A sensitivity analysis addresses some of the uncertainty in a cost estimate by testing assumptions and other factors that could change cost. By examining each assumption or factor independently, while holding all others constant, the cost estimator can evaluate the results to discover which assumptions or factors most influence the estimate. A sensitivity analysis also requires estimating the high and low uncertainty ranges for significant cost driver input factors. According to the GAO Cost Guide, when an agency does not identify the effect of uncertainties associated with different assumptions, this increases the chance that decisions will be made without a clear understanding of these impacts on costs. According to FEMA officials, FEMA’s cost estimating guidance accounts for construction, cost, and market risks over time which allows FEMA to plan and estimate costs for unknown or unforeseen circumstances such as cost escalation or overhead. In addition, FEMA officials stated that their use of RSMeans unit costs, a benchmark industry standard based on ongoing iterative analysis of construction costs nationwide, allows FEMA to account for fluctuations and uncertainties in the market. However, we rated this step as minimally met because FEMA guidance does not indicate that cost estimators are to conduct a sensitivity analysis as part of FEMA’s cost estimating process. Specifically, the guidance does not require that an estimator examine the effect of changing assumptions and the effect these changes could have on a cost estimate. Since the guidance does not direct estimators to conduct a sensitivity analysis, estimators may not fully understand which variable most affects the cost estimate and FEMA risks making decisions without a clear understanding of the impact of costs. Obtaining the data (Partially met): We found that FEMA’s cost estimating guidance only partially met the best practice for obtaining data—assembling information to serve as the foundation of a cost estimate. The quality of the data obtained affects a cost estimate’s overall credibility. Depending on the data quality, an estimate can range from a mere guess to a highly defensive cost position. We found that FEMA did not meet some of the best practices for obtaining data. Specifically, FEMA’s guidance did not outline procedures for making sure data was validated using historical data as a benchmark for reasonableness. In addition, FEMA’s guidance did not stipulate that data be normalized to remove the effects of inflation or analyzed with a scatter plot to determine trends and outliers. As mentioned previously, FEMA used a city cost index based on San Juan as an interim measure to estimate costs throughout Puerto Rico until September, 2019 when FEMA began using additional cost indices to target costs in particular regions of Puerto Rico. Similarly, FEMA has been using a static future price factor as an interim measure until a more dynamic and iterative future price curve is finalized. FEMA does not plan to adjust cost estimates developed using these interim measures. Without adjusting these costs when better data becomes available consistent with the obtaining the data step, FEMA risks creating estimates that may not be based on accurate data. According to FEMA, estimates are developed based on historical costs or nationally available industry standard data. In addition, FEMA officials stated that FEMA does not revisit cost estimates to reflect updated market conditions or newly available cost information because FEMA uses an industry standard cost database that is updated quarterly. FEMA officials stated that the interim measures used to estimate costs are intended to enable work to continue and cost estimates to be developed while the future cost curve is being developed. However, we rated the step relating to obtaining data as partially met because without finalizing the future cost curve, and updating estimates to reflect this information, estimates may not be based on accurate data. Additionally, while the use of industry standard cost estimating resources addresses some best practices for this step such as data normalization and data validation, industry data is only one of many sources referenced in FEMA’s guidance. For other data sources identified, FEMA guidance does not describe a process to analyze the data for cost drivers or to adequately document the data. Risk and uncertainty analysis (Partially met): We found that FEMA’s cost estimating guidance does not include best practices consistent with performing a statistical analysis of risk to determine a range of possible costs and the level of confidence in achieving the estimate. By conducting a risk and uncertainty analysis, a cost estimator can model the effect of schedules slipping and missions changing, allowing for a known range of potential costs. Having a range of costs around a point estimate is useful to decision makers because it conveys the level of confidence in achieving the most likely cost and informs estimators about potential risks. We found that FEMA’s cost estimating guidance does not require a statistical analysis of risks to be performed to determine a range of possible costs. While contingencies are accounted for within the guidance, they are not derived from a statistical analysis, nor do they reflect a level of confidence in the estimate. According to FEMA, risks associated with changing costs and conditions over the life of a Public Assistance alternative procedures construction project is not a risk that the federal government takes on. Rather, the risk is transferred to the recipient and subrecipients responsible for executing work using Public Assistance alternative procedures funding. In addition, FEMA officials told us that alternative procedures funding is not always used to restore facilities to pre-disaster condition, and therefore may not represent the final cost of work completed. In addition, the procedures are designed to incentivize subrecipients to manage grants and use excess funds for eligible work, as described earlier. However, GAO’s Cost Guide states that point estimates alone are insufficient for good decision- making. For management to make good decisions, the program estimate must reflect the degree of uncertainty, so that a level of confidence can be given about the estimate regardless of the entity holding the risk. In the case of alternative procedures projects in Puerto Rico, where actual costs that exceed the estimate are borne by the recipient or subrecipient, estimates that accurately reflect the degree of uncertainty are important in establishing a level of confidence about the estimate. While FEMA fully or substantially met nine of the 12 steps in the GAO Cost Guide, FEMA could improve its cost estimating guidance to ensure that all best practices in the 12 steps in the GAO Cost Guide are fully met. In doing so, FEMA could further enhance the reliability of its cost estimating guidance. In response to the complexity of the recovery, as well as the nature of change in a recovery environment, FEMA has developed and issued guidance that is specific to the implementation of the Public Assistance program in Puerto Rico. As previously discussed, disaster recovery in Puerto Rico is a complex and dynamic process that requires the coordination of many entities, including FEMA, the government of Puerto Rico, and numerous subrecipients. Recovery in Puerto Rico also involves the use of Public Assistance structures including alternative procedures and new flexibilities afforded to FEMA under the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018. FEMA officials told us that many elements of the Public Assistance process in Puerto Rico are the same as in other declared disasters across the United States. Therefore, according to FEMA officials, the standard guidance for the Public Assistance program, Public Assistance Policy and Procedures Guide (Policies and Procedures Guide), generally applies in Puerto Rico. FEMA has also developed policies and guidance to address the specific recovery circumstances in Puerto Rico. For example, in April of 2018 and September of 2019, FEMA published the Public Assistance Alternative Procedures Guide for Permanent Work to clarify how FEMA would implement the program in Puerto Rico. This guidance describes the scope and limitations of the alternative procedures; highlights changes to aspects of the Public Assistance program to which these procedures apply; identifies responsibilities for certain activities; and documents timelines for key actions and decisions. FEMA also issued a policy on the agency’s implementation of section 20601 of the Bipartisan Budget Act as it applies in Puerto Rico in September of 2018, detailing the applicability of the section to specific critical services and outlining eligible industry standards for purposes of authorized projects, among other things. Following the Supplemental Relief Act, FEMA issued guidance in September 2019 that includes additional information on eligibility and applicable industry standards. According to FEMA officials, FEMA has also developed and implemented training specific to recovery in Puerto Rico. This training has included presentations to the central recovery office and subrecipients on the flexibilities of the Bipartisan Budget Act and alternative procedures, among other things. FEMA has iteratively developed, refined, and clarified Public Assistance guidance in Puerto Rico to respond and adapt to changing recovery conditions since the 2017 hurricanes. While iterative and responsive guidance is necessary in a complex and changing recovery, the pace of change necessitates that all involved recovery entities have real-time accessibility to current applicable FEMA guidance. Officials from the central recovery office and four Puerto Rico government agencies we spoke with stated that they did not consistently have the guidance they needed to implement the Public Assistance program. For example, an official from one Puerto Rico agency said that they delayed starting on any large Public Assistance projects through alternative procedures because they were waiting for FEMA to issue additional guidance. Similarly, we reported in March 2019 that four municipal officials stated that they were waiting on additional instruction from FEMA to establish more clear and consistent guidance to begin projects in Puerto Rico. According to FEMA officials, the agency works with Puerto Rico government officials and subrecipients to provide relevant guidance and technical assistance throughout the Public Assistance project development process. However, we found that pertinent guidance may not be shared with key recovery partners. For example, FEMA officials told us that the Standard Operating Procedure for Alternative Procedures (SOP) was available as of March 2019, but remains in draft form as of October 2019, pending finalized information about cost estimating procedures. This SOP provides instruction on specific procedures to implement the Public Assistance alternative procedures guide. In April 2019, FEMA officials described the SOP as a “living document”; they also stated that the draft SOP is in effect and has been sent to the central recovery office for further dissemination to subrecipients. While the SOP document is still in draft, according to FEMA officials, it is operative guidance that FEMA expects the central recovery office to disseminate to subrecipients. However, in June 2019, central recovery office personnel told us they did not view the SOP as being in effect as it was still in draft form. As such, central recovery office officials stated they had not distributed the SOP to subrecipients. FEMA officials stated that they rely on the central recovery office to disseminate at least some FEMA guidance and policy to subrecipients in Puerto Rico, including municipalities and government agencies. As the recipient for all Public Assistance funding in Puerto Rico, the central recovery office is responsible for monitoring and providing technical assistance to subrecipients to ensure that federal funding is used in accordance with federal statutes, regulations, and the requirements of the grant. FEMA officials also stated that subrecipients have an assigned FEMA point of contact to assist them through the project development process, including communicating policy information and updates. However, municipal and Puerto Rico agency officials we spoke to said that confusion persisted in part due to changing points of contact. FEMA’s reliance on the central recovery office or individual FEMA staff to deliver and distribute FEMA guidance poses a risk that the guidance is not made accessible to all partners involved in recovery, including subrecipients. While FEMA officials told us that FEMA assigns a point of contact to subrecipients to provide guidance and other necessary information throughout the project development process, Puerto Rico officials described a significant amount of “back and forth” with FEMA regarding requests for clarification, guidance, or instruction. FEMA officials acknowledge that FEMA has faced difficulties in disseminating information in Puerto Rico. According to FEMA officials, FEMA does not maintain a repository of Public Assistance policies and guidance available to all relevant recovery partners. The accessibility of FEMA guidance is especially important because FEMA releases iterative guidance to respond and adapt to changing recovery circumstances, such as updated legislation, among other things. Misunderstandings across recovery partners about guidance applicability raise concerns that subrecipients do not understand which guidance is currently in effect or how they should proceed in accordance with FEMA policy. Without real-time access to the totality of FEMA’s current applicable guidance, recovery partners risk using guidance that has been revised or replaced. According to FEMA’s National Disaster Recovery Framework, the federal government has the role of ensuring that information is distributed in an accessible manner such that all partners are informed of and aware of the recovery process. Developing a repository of current applicable policy and guidance and making it available to all relevant recovery partners in Puerto Rico, including subrecipients, would improve the accessibility of the information and provide greater assurance that recovery partners are aware of current applicable guidance. Following the 2017 hurricanes, Puerto Rico took several steps to provide management and oversight of the Public Assistance program to ensure the program is implemented in compliance with applicable laws and regulations, as well as FEMA policies and guidance. Specifically, Puerto Rico (1) established a central recovery office to provide management and oversight of recovery funds; (2) developed an administrative plan, as required by FEMA policy; (3) developed an internal controls and recovery management plan; and (4) created a system to oversee and assess subrecipient risk. First, in accordance with Amendment 5 to the President’s disaster declaration, the central recovery office has been supported by third-party experts to help it establish its structure and carry out its management and oversight mission. Specifically, the central recovery office has hired contractors to help perform the following functions: Design a management guide and assess subrecipient risk. According to central recovery office officials, the office hired contractors to develop management protocols and guidance to ensure compliance with federal and state law, regulation, and guidance. The office also tasked these contractors with developing a system to oversee subrecipients using risk-based oversight. Provide technical assistance. Central recovery office officials also hired contractors to provide technical assistance and advise Puerto Rico’s government agencies and municipalities regarding recovery processes. This includes helping subrecipients define the scope of damages, and providing technical assistance to develop Public Assistance projects, among other things. The recovery office also tasked these contractors with overseeing grant accounting and reviewing reimbursement requests from subrecipients for eligible Public Assistance work performed. Develop data systems to track the central recovery office’s work. The central recovery office launched an online transparency portal, with the assistance of contractors, that is intended to provide a breakdown of FEMA Public Assistance and other federal funding made available for disaster recovery in Puerto Rico. According to central recovery office officials, in addition to the development of the online transparency portal, contractor personnel also developed systems to track internal recovery data. Second, to meet FEMA reporting requirements, the central recovery office developed an administrative plan—or FEMA State Agreement—in 2019 for the Public Assistance program following the 2017 hurricanes. This plan outlines the central recovery office’s management and oversight activities as well as the procedures that Puerto Rico must follow in implementing the programs. Puerto Rico is responsible, as required in the FEMA State Agreement, to ensure that subrecipients are in compliance with the conditions of the disaster grant award. For example, the plan emphasizes FEMA’s requirement that Puerto Rico submit quarterly progress and financial reports on the status of projects. Further, the plan describes Puerto Rico’s specific roles and responsibilities for managing and overseeing the program. For example, according to the Puerto Rico 2019 Public Assistance Administrative Plan, the central recovery office is responsible for, among other things, processing requests for time extensions to complete projects and conducting quarterly reviews, site inspections, and audits to ensure program compliance. Third, in addition to the administrative plan, in March 2019, the central recovery office released the Disaster Recovery Federal Funds Management Guide (management guide) that includes an internal controls plan and other policies and procedures for managing recovery funds. The management guide’s 14 chapters outline roles, responsibilities, policies and procedures on various recovery functions including procurement, payment and cash management, and subrecipient management and oversight, among other things. FEMA officials told us that they reviewed portions of the management guide, including sections on the central recovery office’s payment and cash management plan and subrecipient oversight. Further, FEMA worked with the central recovery office to make revisions to the plan, which included, adding clarifying information and correcting instances of duplication in the guidance, among other things. In addition, the central recovery office, with the help of contractors, is taking steps to assist subrecipients in meeting compliance requirements and supplementing their management capacity. FEMA and Puerto Rico government agency officials cited varying levels of capacity to manage federal grant funds, including Public Assistance funding. For example, agency officials at one government agency we spoke with stated that they were performing their own federal grants management and had prior experience managing large federal funds. Other Puerto Rico government officials we interviewed reported that central recovery office contractors have helped augment capacity to oversee federal funds. For example, officials from one subrecipient, a Puerto Rico public corporation, said that their agency did not have prior experience managing federal funds on such a large scale. The official told us that in order to bolster the capacity of the agency to oversee these grant funds, central recovery office contractors work closely with the agency to help them manage Public Assistance funding. Similarly, officials at one Puerto Rico government agency stated that the central recovery office offered help on uploading and validating grant data. Fourth, as detailed in its management guide, the central recovery office has also developed criteria to evaluate subrecipients’ risk of noncompliance with federal laws and regulations, as well as FEMA policy. According to the procedures outlined in the central recovery office’s management guide, each subrecipient is to be assessed annually to determine whether they are at a low, moderate, or high risk for noncompliance. The central recovery office is to place additional award conditions on subrecipients with risk factors identified through the risk assessment process. These may include additional oversight and more frequent on-site visits from the central recovery office. Additionally, central recovery office guidance states that corrective actions are to be taken in cases when deficiencies are found during audits. In March 2019, we reported that FEMA instituted a manual reimbursement process in November 2017 for subrecipients in Puerto Rico for federal funds, including Public Assistance funds, to mitigate fiduciary risk and decrease the risk of misuse of funds. Specifically, FEMA officials stated that they decided to institute this process because the government of Puerto Rico had expended funds prior to submitting complete documentation of work performed. According to FEMA officials, they also decided to institute the manual reimbursement process due to Puerto Rico’s financial situation, weaknesses in internal controls, and the large amount of recovery funds, among other things. The manual reimbursement process required that FEMA review each reimbursement request before providing Public Assistance funds to mitigate risk and help ensure financial accountability. In Puerto Rico, the manual reimbursement process requires that the central recovery office fill out the Office of Management and Budget’s Standard Form 270 and submit supporting documentation to FEMA before obligated funds can be withdrawn by Puerto Rico through the central recovery office and reimbursed to subrecipients. Subsequently, FEMA must review the submitted Standard Form 270 and all project documentation for completeness, compliance, and accuracy before disbursing funds to the recipient. In cases where FEMA requires additional documentation to process a Standard Form 270 request, FEMA will submit requests for information asking the central recovery office to supply the information needed for FEMA to complete the review. On March 25, 2019, FEMA and the government of Puerto Rico, through the central recovery office, signed an agreement allowing the central recovery office to directly access federal grant funds and reimburse subrecipients for Public Assistance work they perform. During FEMA’s review of the central recovery office’s management guide, FEMA asked for revisions to sections, including chapters related to payment and cash management and subrecipient management and monitoring. According to the March 2019 agreement, these policies and procedures were developed in collaboration with FEMA, and comments and concerns provided by FEMA were addressed. FEMA officials also told us that they sampled Public Assistance grant documentation for completeness to ensure that the reimbursement requested was eligible for payment. According to FEMA officials, FEMA communicated minor discrepancies with the central recovery office for resolution, but said that they did not find any significant discrepancies during their completeness review. On April 1, 2019, FEMA removed the manual reimbursement process and began a transition to allow the central recovery office to make direct payments to subrecipients. In July 2019, FEMA announced that it would reinstate the manual reimbursement process due to, “ongoing leadership changes within the Puerto Rican government, combined with continued concern over Puerto Rico’s history of fiscal irregularities and mismanagement.” FEMA said that these additional steps are being taken in order to protect the federal investment in Puerto Rico’s recovery. We previously reported that FEMA and central recovery office officials told us that the manual reimbursement process caused delays in reimbursements, but once FEMA increased the number of personnel devoted to reimbursement reviews, delays decreased. In September 2019, FEMA once again lifted the manual reimbursement process following a meeting between FEMA and Governor Vásquez’s senior leadership. According to FEMA, the agreement to remove the manual reimbursement process is contingent on Puerto Rico’s continued ability to implement the mutually-acceptable internal controls plan. FEMA officials also stated that they are selecting samples from fiscal year 2019 to test Puerto Rico’s internal controls, and plan to move to a quarterly testing routine after testing for fiscal year 2019 is complete. As part of our ongoing review, we will continue to monitor the central recovery office’s management and oversight of Public Assistance funding, as well as of FEMA’s oversight of the federal investment in Puerto Rico’s recovery. After the devastation of the catastrophic 2017 hurricane season, FEMA and Puerto Rico face a recovery of enormous scope. Puerto Rico estimates that $132 billion in funding will be needed to repair and reconstruct the infrastructure damaged by the hurricanes through 2028, and FEMA has identified nearly ten thousand damaged sites in need of Public Assistance funding. FEMA has taken steps to adapt its guidance to estimate costs to post-disaster conditions in Puerto Rico, but strengthening its cost estimating guidance could help FEMA provide greater assurance that its cost estimating guidance for Public Assistance projects is reliable. In addition, given the large number of individuals and entities involved in Puerto Rico’s complex recovery, ensuring that all recovery partners have easy access to the most current applicable policy and guidance could help clarify which FEMA guidance and policies are in effect. We are making the following two recommendations to FEMA: The FEMA administrator should revise FEMA’s cost-estimating guidance for Public Assistance projects to fully align with all 12 steps in the GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide. (Recommendation 1) The FEMA administrator should develop a repository for all current applicable Public Assistance policies and guidance for Puerto Rico and make it available to all recovery partners, including subrecipients. (Recommendation 2) We provided a draft of this product to FEMA, DHS and Puerto Rico’s Central Office of Recovery, Reconstruction, and Resilience (central recovery office) for comment. In its comments, reproduced in appendix III, DHS concurred with our recommendations. FEMA also provided technical comments, which we incorporated as appropriate. DHS concurred with our first recommendation that FEMA revise its cost- estimating guidance for Public Assistance projects to fully align with all 12 steps in the GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide. DHS stated that FEMA will create a quality assurance checklist as an addendum to FEMA’s Cost Estimating Format (CEF) to ensure that cost estimates reflect best practices from the GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide. This action is a positive step to addressing our recommendation and we will monitor FEMA’s efforts to complete this work. In DHS’s concurrence to our second recommendation that FEMA develop a repository for all current applicable Public Assistance policies and guidance for Puerto Rico to be made available to all recovery partners, DHS requested that GAO consider this recommendation resolved and closed as implemented. DHS stated that FEMA maintains Public Assistance policy and guidance documents, including those specific to Puerto Rico, on the agency’s public web site, which FEMA stated it will continue to update. DHS also stated that FEMA maintains non-publicly available reference documents on the agency’s internal web site through the Grants Manager and Grants Portal systems. As we noted in our report, Puerto Rico’s recovery is a complex and dynamic process that requires the coordination of many recovery partners, including numerous municipalities and commonwealth agencies. For this reason, ensuring that information is distributed in an accessible manner would provide greater assurance that all recovery partners are aware of the most current and applicable Public Assistance policies and guidance. We will monitor FEMA’s public and internal web sites, including policy and guidance updates, to assess whether the actions outlined by FEMA meet the intent of our recommendation. COR3 also provided comments to our draft report, which we reproduced in appendix IV. In its comments, COR3 stated that it works with Public Assistance applicants to, among other things, provide technical assistance and training, and to monitor projects. COR3 also stated that it has established joint efforts with FEMA to improve COR3’s technical assistance, as well as compliance and monitoring efforts. We are sending copies of this report to the appropriate congressional committees, the Secretary of Homeland Security, the Administrator of FEMA, the Puerto Rico government, and other interested parties. In addition, the report is available at no charge on the GAO website at http://www.gao.gov. If you and your staff have any questions, please contact me at (404) 679- 1875 or curriec@gao.gov. GAO staff who made key contributions to this report are listed in appendix V. Since September 2017, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) obligated nearly $6 billion in Public Assistance grant funding for 1,558 projects across Puerto Rico as of September 30, 2019. Specifically, FEMA had obligated $5.13 billion for emergency work projects (categories A and B), about $487 million for permanent work projects (categories C through G), and $315 million for management costs, (category Z). As of that date, Puerto Rico expended nearly $3.9 billion—about 65 percent of total Public Assistance obligations to Puerto Rico—to reimburse subrecipients for completed work. Of this, Puerto Rico expended about $3.7 billion (96 percent of all expended funds) for emergency work projects, $38.6 million (1 percent) for permanent work projects, and $104 million (3 percent) for management costs. The majority of FEMA’s obligations and the funding Puerto Rico expended as of September 30, 2019 are for emergency work projects because these projects began soon after hurricanes Irma and Maria struck and focused on debris removal and providing assistance to address immediate threats to life and property. In contrast, permanent work projects take time to identify, develop, and ultimately complete as they represent the longer-term repair and restoration of public infrastructure. While the data in this appendix represent the status of Public Assistance funding as of September, 2019, the amount of grant funding FEMA obligates and Puerto Rico expends will likely increase over time as additional projects are finalized and approved. Emergency Work. As of September 30, 2019, FEMA obligated a total of $5.13 billion for approximately 1,200 emergency work projects across Puerto Rico. These projects focus on debris removal activities and providing assistance to address immediate threats to life and property. Category A: Debris Removal. FEMA obligated $637.0 million and Puerto Rico expended $427.1 million for 331 projects focused on debris removal activities in Puerto Rico under category A. Category B: Emergency Protective Measures. FEMA obligated nearly $4.5 billion for 871 projects under Category B. Of this, Puerto Rico has expended $3.29 billion. For example, FEMA has obligated more than $140 million to the Puerto Rico Aqueducts and Sewer Authority under category B to fund emergency protective measures, including using back-up generators to supply water to the island after Hurricane Maria, among other things. Permanent Work. As of September 30, 2019, FEMA has obligated about $487.3 million for 159 permanent work (Categories C through G) projects in Puerto Rico. These projects focus on the restoration of disaster- damaged infrastructure or systems. Category C: Roads and Bridges. FEMA obligated $140.5 million and Puerto Rico has expended $32.8 million for 20 projects focused on the permanent repair of roads and bridges in Puerto Rico, such as the damage illustrated in figure 8 below. Category D: Water Control Facilities. As of September 30, 2019, FEMA has obligated $435,493 for three projects, of which approximately $150,000 has been expended. This includes work on heavy water control infrastructure, such as berms or levees. Category E: Buildings and Equipment. FEMA obligated $43.5 million and Puerto Rico expended nearly $4 million for 87 projects focused on repairing and rebuilding damaged public buildings and equipment, such as the school shown in figure 9 below. Category F: Utilities. Of the $487 million FEMA obligated for permanent work projects, the largest share, $282 million was obligated for nine projects related to utilities, such as architectural and engineering design services for design work for electricity grid recovery projects. For example, in June 2019, FEMA obligated $111 million for architectural and engineering design services for design work for electricity grid recovery projects. Puerto Rico has expended just over $1 million of the funding obligated for projects related to repairing utilities. Category G: Parks, Recreational and Other Facilities. FEMA obligated approximately $20.9 million and Puerto Rico has expended just over $600,000 across 40 projects focused on repairing parks, playgrounds, and other facilities. GAO’s Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide (GAO Cost Guide) outlines best practices pertaining to cost estimating principles, presenting 12 steps to create high-quality estimates. These steps are generally applicable in a variety of circumstances and range from defining the purpose of the estimate to obtaining data to presenting the estimate to management for approval. Application of these principles should result in reliable and valid cost estimates that management can use to make informed decisions. To assess the extent to which FEMA’s cost estimating policy aligns with these best practices, we compared FEMA’s information to the GAO Cost Guide. Specifically, we reviewed FEMA documents containing cost estimating information pertinent to Public Assistance projects including FEMA’s Public Assistance Alternative Procedures Guide for Permanent Work FEMA-4339-DR-PR (Alternative Procedures Guide) and FEMA’s Cost Estimating Format (CEF) for Large Projects Instructional Guide V2.1 (dated September 2009). We compared FEMA’s guidance for developing cost estimates outlined in these documents against the 12 best practices described in the GAO Cost Guide. We assessed the extent to which these documents aligned with the best practices on a five point scale. Fully met. FEMA provided complete evidence that satisfies the elements of the step. Substantially met. FEMA provided evidence that satisfies a large portion of the elements of the step. Partially met. FEMA provided evidence that satisfies about half of the elements of the step. Minimally met. FEMA provided evidence that satisfies a small portion of the elements of the step. Not met. FEMA provided no evidence that satisfies any of the elements of the step. Taken together, FEMA’s documents provided cost estimating information that either substantially or fully meets nine of the 12 cost estimating steps. Furthermore, the information partially met two of the 12 steps, and minimally met one of the 12 steps. Table 1 summarizes GAO’s assessment of the extent to which FEMA’s information aligns with the 12 steps identified in the GAO cost guide. Chris Currie, (404) 679-1875 or curriec@gao.gov. In addition to the contact named above, Joel Aldape (Assistant Director), Taylor Hadfield (Analyst in Charge), Michelle Bacon, Brian Bothwell, Lorraine Ettaro, Eric Hauswirth, Heidi Nielson, Danielle Pakdaman, Amanda Prichard, Kevin Reeves, and Mary Weiland made key contributions to this report. U.S. Virgin Islands Recovery: Additional Actions Could Strengthen FEMA’s Key Disaster Recovery Efforts. GAO-20-54. Washington, D.C.: November 19, 2019. Disaster Resilience Framework: Principles for Analyzing Federal Efforts to Facilitate and Promote Resilience to Natural Disasters. GAO-20-100SP. Washington, D.C.: October 23, 2019. Disaster Recovery: Recent Disasters Highlight Progress and Challenges. GAO-20-183T. Washington, D.C.: October 22, 2019. Wildfire Disasters: FEMA Could Take Additional Actions to Address Unique Response and Recovery Challenges. GAO-20-5. Washington, D.C.: October 9, 2019. Puerto Rico Electricity Grid Recovery: Better Information and Enhanced Coordination Is Needed to Address Challenges. GAO-20-141. Washington, D.C.: October 8, 2019. Emergency Management: FEMA’s Disaster Recovery Efforts in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. GAO-19-662T. Washington, D.C.: July 11, 2019. 2017 Disaster Relief Oversight: Strategy Needed to Ensure Agencies’ Internal Control Plans Provide Sufficient Information. GAO-19-479. Washington, D.C.: June 28, 2019. Emergency Management: FEMA Has Made Progress, but Challenges and Future Risks Highlight Imperative for Further Improvements. GAO-19-617T . Washington, D.C.: June 25, 2019. Emergency Management: FEMA Has Made Progress, but Challenges and Future Risks Highlight the Imperative for Further Improvements. GAO-19-594T. Washington, D.C.: June 12, 2019. Disaster Assistance: FEMA Action Needed to Better Support Individuals Who Are Older or Have Disabilities. GAO-19-318. Washington, D.C.: May 14, 2019. Disaster Contracting: Actions Needed to Improve the Use of Post- Disaster Contracts to Support Response and Recovery, GAO-19-281. Washington, D.C.: April 24, 2019. 2017 Hurricane Season: Federal Support for Electricity Grid Restoration in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. GAO-19-296. Washington, D.C.: April 18, 2019. FEMA Grants Modernization: Improvements Needed to Strengthen Program Management and Cybersecurity. GAO-19-164. Washington, D.C.: April 9, 2019. Disaster Recovery: Better Monitoring of Block Grant Funds Is Needed. GAO-19-232. Washington, D.C.: March 25, 2019. Puerto Rico Hurricanes: Status of FEMA Funding, Oversight, and Recovery Challenges. GAO-19-256. Washington, D.C.: March 14, 2019. Huracanes de Puerto Rico: Estado de Financiamiento de FEMA, Supervisión y Desafíos de Recuperación. GAO-19-331. Washington, D.C.: March 14, 2019. High-Risk Series: Substantial Efforts Needed to Achieve Greater Progress on High-Risk Areas. GAO-19-157SP. Washington, D.C.: March 6, 2019. U.S. Virgin Islands Recovery: Status of FEMA Public Assistance Funding and Implementation. GAO-19-253. Washington, D.C.: February 25, 2019. 2017 Disaster Contracting: Action Needed to Better Ensure More Effective Use and Management of Advance Contracts. GAO-19-93. Washington, D.C.: December 6, 2018. Continuity of Operations: Actions Needed to Strengthen FEMA’s Oversight and Coordination of Executive Branch Readiness. GAO-19-18SU. Washington, D.C.: November 26, 2018. Homeland Security Grant Program: Additional Actions Could Further Enhance FEMA’s Risk-Based Grant Assessment Model. GAO-18-354. Washington, D.C.: September 6, 2018. 2017 Hurricanes and Wildfires: Initial Observations on the Federal Response and Key Recovery Challenges. GAO-18-472. Washington, D.C.: September 4, 2018. Federal Disaster Assistance: Individual Assistance Requests Often Granted but FEMA Could Better Document Factors Considered. GAO-18-366. Washington, D.C.: May 31, 2018. 2017 Disaster Contracting: Observations on Federal Contracting for Response and Recovery Efforts. GAO-18-335. Washington, D.C.: February 28, 2018. Disaster Recovery: Additional Actions Would Improve Data Quality and Timeliness of FEMA’s Public Assistance Appeals Processing. GAO-18-143. Washington, D.C.: December 15, 2017. Disaster Assistance: Opportunities to Enhance Implementation of the Redesigned Public Assistance Grant Program. GAO-18-30. Washington, D.C.: November 8, 2017. Climate Change: Information on Potential Economic Effects Could Help Guide Federal Efforts to Reduce Fiscal Exposure. GAO-17-720. Washington, D.C.: September 28, 2017. Federal Disaster Assistance: Federal Departments and Agencies Obligated at Least $277.6 Billion during Fiscal Years 2005 through 2014. GAO-16-797. Washington, D.C.: September 22, 2016. Disaster Recovery: FEMA Needs to Assess Its Effectiveness in Implementing the National Disaster Recovery Framework. GAO-16-476. Washington, D.C.: May 26, 2016. Disaster Response: FEMA Has Made Progress Implementing Key Programs, but Opportunities for Improvement Exist. GAO-16-87. Washington, D.C.: February 5, 2016. Hurricane Sandy: An Investment Strategy Could Help the Federal Government Enhance National Resilience for Future Disasters. GAO-15-515. Washington, D.C.: July 30, 2015. Budgeting for Disasters: Approaches to Budgeting for Disasters in Selected States. GAO-15-424. Washington, D.C.: March 26, 2015. High-Risk Series: An Update. GAO-15-290. Washington, D.C.: February 11, 2015. Emergency Preparedness: Opportunities Exist to Strengthen Interagency Assessments and Accountability for Closing Capability Gaps. GAO-15-20. Washington, D.C.: December 4, 2014. Fiscal Exposures: Improving Cost Recognition in the Federal Budget. GAO-14-28. Washington, D.C.: October 29, 2013. Federal Disaster Assistance: Improved Criteria Needed to Assess a Jurisdiction’s Capability to Respond and Recover on Its Own. GAO-12-838. Washington, D.C.: September 12, 2012.