Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as vaccination progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase, despite most of the population still being susceptible. Using our age-stratified  model and curated epidemiological and vaccination data, we quantified at which pace European countries can lift restrictions without overwhelming their health-care systems. The analysed scenarios range from immediately lifting restriction (accepting high mortality and morbidity) to reducing case numbers until test-trace-and-isolate programs facilitate control . In general, the age-dependent vaccination roll-out implies a transient decrease  in the average age of ICU patients and deaths by about seven years . The pace of vaccination determines the speed of lifting restrictions; all scenarios allow to steadily increase contacts starting in May 2021 and relax most restrictions by autumn 2021. Throughout summer , only moderate contact restrictions remain necessary. However, with the assumed vaccination protection, further waves among the unvaccinated population can only be avoided with high vaccine uptake (>90%DIFDELCMD < \\%%% %DIF < ). Strategies that maintain low case numbers instead of high ones reduce infections and deaths by a factor of eight and four. Policies with low case numbers significantly benefit from vaccination, as the overall reduction in susceptibility will further diminish viral spread. Keeping case numbers low is the safest long-term strategy because it i) considerably reduces mortality and morbidity, ii) offers better preparedness against escape virus variants, and iii) allows higher contact numbers ("freedom") over the summer.\end{abstract} 
Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as vaccination progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase, despite most of the population remaining susceptible. Using our age-stratified SEIRD-ICU compartmental model and curated epidemiological and vaccination data, we quantified the rate (relative to vaccination progress) at which countries from the European Union (EU) can lift non-pharmaceutical interventions without overwhelming their healthcare systems. We analyzed scenarios ranging from immediately lifting restrictions (accepting high mortality and morbidity) to reducing case numbers to a level where test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) programs efficiently compensate for local spreading events . In general, the age-dependent vaccination roll-out implies a transient decrease of more than ten years in the average age of ICU patients and deceased . The pace of vaccination determines the speed of lifting restrictions; all considered scenarios allow for steadily increasing contacts starting in May 2021 and relaxing most restrictions by autumn 2021. Throughout summer 2021, only mild contact restrictions will remain necessary. However, %DIFDELCMD < \\%%% %DIF < ). Strategies that maintain low case numbers instead of high ones reduce infections and deaths by a factor of eight and four. Policies with low case numbers significantly benefit from vaccination, as the overall reduction in susceptibility will further diminish viral spread. Keeping case numbers low is the safest long-term strategy because it i) considerably reduces mortality and morbidity, ii) offers better preparedness against escape virus variants, and iii) allows higher contact numbers ("freedom") over the summer.\end{abstract} only high vaccine uptake can prevent further severe waves. Across EU countries, seroprevalence impacts the long-term success of vaccination campaigns more strongly than age demographics. In addition, we highlight the need for preventive measures to reduce contagion in school settings throughout the year 2021, where children might be drivers of contagion because of them remaining susceptible. Strategies that maintain low case numbers, instead of high ones, reduce infections and deaths by factors of eleven and five, respectively...
R
still being
remaining
A
SEIRD-ICU compartmental
R
at which pace European countries can lift restrictions
the rate (relative to vaccination progress) at which countries from the European Union (EU) can lift non-pharmaceutical interventions
R
health-care systems. The analysed scenarios range
healthcare systems. We analyzed scenarios ranging
R
restriction
restrictions
R
until
to a level where
R
programs facilitate control
(TTI) programs efficiently compensate for local spreading events
A
of more than ten years
R
deaths by about seven years
deceased
R
scenarios allow to steadily increase
considered scenarios allow for steadily increasing
R
relax
relaxing
R
, only moderate contact restrictions
2021, only mild contact restrictions will
D
with the assumed vaccination protection, further waves among the unvaccinated population can only be avoided with high vaccine uptake (>90
A
only high vaccine uptake can prevent further severe waves. Across EU countries, seroprevalence impacts the long-term success of vaccination campaigns more strongly than age demographics. In addition, we highlight the need for preventive measures to reduce contagion in school settings throughout the year 2021, where children might be drivers of contagion because of them remaining susceptible. Strategies that maintain low case numbers, instead of high ones, reduce infections and deaths by factors of eleven and five, respectively...