We model the spread of an epidemic through physically proximate human contacts using an Erdos-Renyi random graph representing a city, and simulate outcomes for two kinds of agents , poor and non-poor. Under non-intervention, peak caseload is maximised, but no differences are observed in infection rates across poor and non-poor. When we introduce different forms of social distancing interventions , peak caseloads are reduced, but infection rates of the poor are systematically higher  than for non-poor  across all scenarios. Larger populations, higher fractions of poor, and greater intensity of interventions are found to progressively worsen outcomes for the poor , vis-a-vis the non-poor. Increasing population leads to higher infection rates among the poor, supporting concerns that households in large high-density settlements like slums amongst the most at-risk population groups during an outbreak. Related to this, increasing population of the urban poor is found to worsen infection outcomes of the poor, and given the expansion of developing cities into large metropolises, this is an issue of significant concern for public health and economic wellbeing. The poor are also found disproportionately affected by increasing length and intensity of social distancing measures, pointing to the immediate need for countries to have clear guidelines on how social distancing can be practiced in high density slum settlements, given local contexts. Sustainable solutions for the long-term will require concerted investment in environmental and physical infrastructure to improve living conditions . Finally, addressing these iniquitous outcomes for the poor creates better outcomes for the whole population, including the non-poor.
We create a network model to study the spread of an epidemic through physically proximate and accidental daily human contacts in a city, and simulate outcomes for two kinds of agents - poor and non-poor. Under non-intervention, peak caseload is maximised, but no differences are observed in infection rates across poor and non-poor. Introducing interventions to control spread , peak caseloads are reduced, but both cumulative infection rates and current infection rates are systematically higher for the poor than for non-poor , across all scenarios. Larger populations, higher fractions of poor, and longer durations of intervention are found to progressively worsen outcomes for the poor ; and these are of particular concern for poor populations in cities of the developing world . Finally, addressing these iniquitous outcomes for the poor creates better outcomes for the whole population, including the non-poor.
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model
create a network model to study
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human contacts using an Erdos-Renyi random graph representing
and accidental daily human contacts in
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,
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When we introduce different forms of social distancing interventions
Introducing interventions to control spread
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infection rates of the poor
both cumulative infection rates and current infection rates
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for the poor
A
,
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greater intensity of interventions
longer durations of intervention
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, vis-a-vis
; and these are of particular concern for poor populations in cities of
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non-poor. Increasing population leads to higher infection rates among the poor, supporting concerns that households in large high-density settlements like slums amongst the most at-risk population groups during an outbreak. Related to this, increasing population of the urban poor is found to worsen infection outcomes of the poor, and given the expansion of developing cities into large metropolises, this is an issue of significant concern for public health and economic wellbeing. The poor are also found disproportionately affected by increasing length and intensity of social distancing measures, pointing to the immediate need for countries to have clear guidelines on how social distancing can be practiced in high density slum settlements, given local contexts. Sustainable solutions for the long-term will require concerted investment in environmental and physical infrastructure to improve living conditions
developing world