As of April, 6th, 2020, the total number of COVID-19 reported cases and deaths are 4778 and 136. This is an alarming situation as with a huge population within few days India will enter in stage-3 of COVID-19 transmission. In the absence of neither an effective treatment or vaccine and with an incomplete understanding of the epidemiological cycle, predictive mathematical models can help exploring of both COVID-19 transmission and control. In this present study , we consider a new mathematical model on COVID-19 transmission that incorporate lock-down effectand variability in transmission between symptomatic and asymptomatic populations with former being a fast spreader of the disease. Using daily COVID-19 notified cases from three states (Maharashtra, Delhi, and Telangana) and overall India, we assess the effect of current 21 days lock-down in terms of reduction cases and deaths. Lock-down effect is studied with different lock-down success rate. Our result suggest that 21 days lock-down will have no impact in Maharashtra and overall India. Furthermore, the presence of a higher percentage of COVID-19 super-spreaders will further deteriorate the situation in Maharashtra. However, for Tamil Nadu and Delhi there is some ray of hope as our prediction shows that lock-down will reduce a significant number of cases and deaths. in these two locations . Further extension of lock-down may place Delhi and Tamil Nadu in a comfort zone. Comparing estimated parameter samples for the mentioned four locations, we find a correlation between effect of lockdown and percentage of symptomatic infected in a region . Our result suggests that  a higher percentage of symptomatic infected in a region leads to a large number of reduction in notified cases and deaths due to different lock-down scenario . Finally, we suggest a policy for the Indian Govt to control COVID-19 outbreak .
 In the absence of neither an effective treatment or vaccine and with an incomplete understanding of the epidemiological cycle, Govt. has implemented a nationwide lockdown to reduce COVID-19 transmission in India. To study the effect of social distancing measure, we considered a new mathematical model on COVID-19 that incorporates lockdown effect. By validating our model to the data on notified cases from five different states and overall India, we estimated several epidemiologically important parameters as well as the basic reproduction number (R_{0 . Our result suggests that lockdown will be effective in those locations where a higher percentage of symptomatic infection exists in the population. Furthermore, a large scale COVID-19 mass testing is required to reduce community infection. Ensemble model forecast suggested a high rise in the COVID-19 notified cases in most of the locations in the coming days. Furthermore, the trend of the effective reproduction number (R_{t . Finally, combining our results, we provided an effective lockdown policy to reduce future COVID-19 transmission in India .
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As of April, 6th, 2020, the total number of COVID-19 reported cases and deaths are 4778 and 136. This is an alarming situation as with a huge population within few days India will enter in stage-3 of COVID-19 transmission.
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predictive mathematical models can help exploring of both
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in India. To study the effect of social distancing measure, we considered
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transmission that incorporate lock-down effectand variability in transmission between symptomatic and asymptomatic populations with former being a fast spreader of the disease. Using daily COVID-19
that incorporates lockdown effect. By validating our model to the data on
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three states (Maharashtra, Delhi, and Telangana) and
five different states and
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assess the effect of current 21 days lock-down in terms of reduction cases and deaths. Lock-down effect is studied with different lock-down success rate. Our result suggest that 21 days lock-down will have no impact in Maharashtra and overall India. Furthermore, the presence of a higher percentage of COVID-19 super-spreaders will further deteriorate the situation in Maharashtra. However, for Tamil Nadu and Delhi there is some ray of hope as our prediction shows that lock-down will reduce a significant number of cases and deaths. in these two locations . Further extension of lock-down may place Delhi and Tamil Nadu in a comfort zone. Comparing estimated parameter samples for the mentioned four locations, we find a correlation between effect of lockdown and percentage of symptomatic infected in a region
estimated several epidemiologically important parameters as well as the basic reproduction number (R_{0
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lockdown will be effective in those locations where
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infected in a region leads to a large number of reduction in notified cases and deaths due to different lock-down scenario
infection exists in the population. Furthermore, a large scale COVID-19 mass testing is required to reduce community infection. Ensemble model forecast suggested a high rise in the COVID-19 notified cases in most of the locations in the coming days. Furthermore, the trend of the effective reproduction number (R_{t
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we suggest a policy for the Indian Govt to control
combining our results, we provided an effective lockdown policy to reduce future
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transmission in India