Based on analogies with statistical physics and complexity theory, we have developed in the last decade an approach that diagnoses bubbles as transient super-exponential regimes. Here, We present an analysis of oil prices in US dollars and in other major currencies that diagnoses unsustainable faster-than-exponential behavior. This provides evidence that the recent oil price run-up has been amplified by speculative behavior of the type found during a bubble-like expansion. 
 We present an analysis of oil prices in US and in other major currencies that diagnoses unsustainable faster-than-exponential behavior. This supports the hypothesis that the recent oil price run-up has been amplified by speculative behavior of the type found during a bubble-like expansion. We also attempt to unravel the information hidden in the oil supply-demand data reported by two leading agencies, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). We suggest that the found increasing discrepancy between the EIA and IEA figures provides a measure of the estimation errors. Rather than a clear transition to a supply restricted regime, we interpret the discrepancy between the IEA and EIA as a signature of uncertainty, and there is no better fuel than uncertainty to promote speculation!
D
Based on analogies with statistical physics and complexity theory, we have developed in the last decade an approach that diagnoses bubbles as transient super-exponential regimes. Here,
D
dollars
R
provides evidence
supports the hypothesis
A
We also attempt to unravel the information hidden in the oil supply-demand data reported by two leading agencies, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). We suggest that the found increasing discrepancy between the EIA and IEA figures provides a measure of the estimation errors. Rather than a clear transition to a supply restricted regime, we interpret the discrepancy between the IEA and EIA as a signature of uncertainty, and there is no better fuel than uncertainty to promote speculation!