We show that a simple model reproduces very closely the evolution of the GDP in constant dollars of many countries during the times of recession and recovery. A theoretical analysis illustrates how an optimal dynamical policy reduces both recession duration and severity, and increases the value of GDP at all times. We propose a criterion to distinguish a posteriori a dynamical policy from a static one  .
We show that a simple model reproduces very closely the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during the times of recession and recovery. A theoretical analysis illustrates how an optimal dynamical policy reduces both recession duration and severity, and increases the value of GDP at all times. We propose a criterion to distinguish a posteriori a dynamical policy from a static one . Finally, we predict that Ukraine will recover its current and constant dollar 1990 GDPs in 2009 and Moldova in 2015 in current dollars and 2009 in constant dollars .
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GDP in
gross domestic product (GDP) in current and
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. Finally, we predict that Ukraine will recover its current and constant dollar 1990 GDPs in 2009 and Moldova in 2015 in current dollars and 2009 in constant dollars