This paper uses stop-level passenger count data in four cities to understand the nation-wide bus ridership decline between 2012 and 2018. The local characteristics associated with ridership decline are evaluated in Portland, Miami, Minneapolis/St-Paul, and Atlanta. Poisson models explain ridership as a cross-section and the change thereof as a panel. While controlling for change in frequency, jobs, and population, the correlation with local socio-demographic characteristics are investigated using data from the American Community Survey. The effect of changing neighborhood socio-demographics on bus ridership are modeled using Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics data. At a point in time, neighborhoods with high proportions of non-white, carless, and most significantly, high-school-educated residents are the most likely to have high ridership. Over time, white neighborhoods are losing the most ridership across all four cities. Places with high concentrations of residents with college education and without access to a car also lose ridership at a faster rate in two of the cities. The sign and significance of these results remain consistent even when controlling for intra-urban migration. Although bus ridership is declining across neighborhood characteristics, these results suggest that the underlying cause must be primarily affecting the travel behavior of white bus riders. Shifts in neighborhood socio-demographics, however, were found to be modest in most cities and unlikely to be causing the nation-wide ridership crisis. In Miami , the increasing proportion of white residents surrounding bus stops could be a factor aggravating the decline .
This paper uses stop-level passenger count data in four cities to understand the nation-wide bus ridership decline between 2012 and 2018. The local characteristics associated with ridership change are evaluated in Portland, Miami, Minneapolis/St-Paul, and Atlanta. Poisson models explain ridership as a cross-section and the change thereof as a panel. While controlling for change in frequency, jobs, and population, the correlation with local socio-demographic characteristics are investigated using data from the American Community Survey. The effect of changing neighborhood demographics on bus ridership are modeled using Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics data. At a point in time, neighborhoods with high proportions of non-white, carless, and most significantly, high-school-educated residents are the most likely to have high ridership. Over time, white neighborhoods are losing the most ridership across all four cities. Places with high concentrations of residents with college education and without access to a car also lose ridership at a faster rate in two of the cities. The sign and significance of these results remain consistent even when controlling for intra-urban migration. Although bus ridership is declining across neighborhood characteristics, these results suggest that the underlying cause must be primarily affecting the travel behavior of white bus riders. Shifts in neighborhood socio-demographics, however, were found to be modest and unlikely to be causing the nation-wide ridership crisis. Only in Miami is the proportion of white residents near the most frequent parts of the bus network increasing. There, demographic shifts may be contributing to the overall decline in bus ridership .
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decline
change
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socio-demographics
demographics
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Employer Household
Employer-Household
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in most cities
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In Miami , the increasing
Only in Miami is the
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surrounding bus stops could be a factor aggravating the decline
near the most frequent parts of the bus network increasing. There, demographic shifts may be contributing to the overall decline in bus ridership