We use the Newcomb-Benford law to test if countries manipulate reported data during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that democratic countries, countries with the higher Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, higher healthcare expenditures, and better universal healthcare coverage are less likely to deviate from the Newcomb-Benford law. The relationship holds for the cumulative number of deaths and for the cumulative number of total cases but is more pronounced for the death toll. The findings are robust for the second digit tests, for a sub-sample of countries with regional data, and during the previous swine flu (H1N1) 2009-2010 pandemic  .
We use the Newcomb-Benford law to test if countries have manipulated reported data during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that democratic countries, countries with the higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, higher healthcare expenditures, and better universal healthcare coverage are less likely to deviate from the Newcomb-Benford law. The relationship holds for the cumulative number of reported deaths and total cases but is more pronounced for the death toll. The findings are robust for second-digit tests, for a sub-sample of countries with regional data, and in relation to the previous swine flu (H1N1) 2009-2010 pandemic . The paper further highlights the importance of independent surveillance data verification projects .
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manipulate
have manipulated
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Gross Domestic Product
gross domestic product
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deaths and for the cumulative number of
reported deaths and
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the second digit
second-digit
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during
in relation to
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. The paper further highlights the importance of independent surveillance data verification projects