Presented is an evolutionary model of consumer non-durable markets, which is an extension of a previously published paper on consumer durables. The model suggests that the repurchase process is governed by preferential growth. Applying statistical methods it can be shown that in a competitive market the mean price declines according to an exponential law towards a natural price, while the corresponding price distribution is approximately given by a Laplace distribution for independent price decisions of the manufacturers. The sales of individual brands are determined by a replicator dynamics. As a consequence the size distribution of business units is a lognormal distribution, while the growth rates are also given by a Laplace distribution. Moreover products with a higher fitness replace those with a lower fitness according to a logistic law. Most remarkable is the prediction that the price distribution becomes unstable at market clearing, which is in striking difference to the Walrasian picture in standard microeconomics. The reason for this statement is that competition between products exists only if there is an excess supply, causing a decreasing mean price. When, for example by significant events, demand increases or is equal to supply, competition breaks down and the price exhibits a jump. When this supply shortage is accompanied with an arbitrage for traders, it may even evolve into a speculative bubble. Neglecting the impact of speculation here, the evolutionary model can be linked to a stochastic jump-diffusion model .
A new microeconomic model is presented that aims at a description of the long-term unit sales and price evolution of homogeneous non-durable goods in polypoly markets. It merges the product lifecycle approach with the price dispersion dynamics of homogeneous goods. The model predicts a minimum critical lifetime of non-durables in order to survive. Under the condition that the supply side of the market evolves much faster than the demand side the theory suggests that unsatisfied demands are present in the first stages of the lifecycle. With the growth of production capacities these demands disappear accompanied with a logistic decrease of the mean price of the good. The model is applied to electricity as a non-durable satisfying the model condition. The presented theory allows a deeper understanding of the sales and price dynamics of non-durables .
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Presented is an evolutionary model of consumer
A new microeconomic model is presented that aims at a description of the long-term unit sales and price evolution of homogeneous
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markets, which is an extension of a previously published paper on consumer durables. The model suggests that the repurchase process is governed by preferential growth. Applying statistical methods it can be shown that in a competitive market the mean price declines according to an exponential law towards a natural price, while the corresponding price distribution is approximately given by a Laplace distribution for independent price decisions of the manufacturers. The sales of individual brands are determined by a replicator dynamics. As a consequence the size distribution of business units is a lognormal distribution, while the growth rates are also given by a Laplace distribution. Moreover products with a higher fitness replace those with a lower fitness according to a logistic law. Most remarkable is the prediction that the price distribution becomes unstable at market clearing, which is in striking difference to the Walrasian picture in standard microeconomics. The reason for this statement is that competition between products exists only if there is an excess supply, causing a decreasing mean price. When, for example by significant events, demand increases or is equal to supply, competition breaks down and the price exhibits a jump. When this supply shortage is accompanied with an arbitrage for traders, it may even evolve into a speculative bubble. Neglecting the impact of speculation here, the evolutionary model can be linked to
goods in polypoly markets. It merges the product lifecycle approach with the price dispersion dynamics of homogeneous goods. The model predicts a minimum critical lifetime of non-durables in order to survive. Under the condition that the supply side of the market evolves much faster than the demand side the theory suggests that unsatisfied demands are present in the first stages of the lifecycle. With the growth of production capacities these demands disappear accompanied with
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stochastic jump-diffusion model
logistic decrease of the mean price of the good. The model is applied to electricity as a non-durable satisfying the model condition. The presented theory allows a deeper understanding of the sales and price dynamics of non-durables