We employ stochastic dynamic microsimulations to analyse and forecast the pension cost dependency ratio for England and Wales from 1991 to 2061, evaluating the impact of  state pension reforms initiated by the Labour and continued by the Conservative governments . To fully account for the increasing trends in life expectancies, we implemented a custom extrapolation model for mortality rates, based on deep learning techniques  . Our results show that the recent reforms can effectively stave off the "pension crisis" and bring back the system on a sounder fiscal footing. At the same time, increasingly more workers can expect to spend greater share of their lifespan in retirement, despite the eligibility age rises. The population ageing due to the  postponement of death until advanced old age often occurs with the compression of morbidity, and thus will not, perforce, intrinsically strain healthcare costs. To a lesser degree, the future pension cost dependency ratio will depend also on the post-Brexit relations between the UK and the EU, with "soft" alignment on the free movement lowering the relative cost of the pension system compared to the "hard" one. In the long term, however, the ratio has a rising tendency.
We employ stochastic dynamic microsimulations to analyse and forecast the pension cost dependency ratio for England and Wales from 1991 to 2061, evaluating the impact of the ongoing state pension reforms and changes in international migration patterns under different Brexit scenarios . To fully account for the recently observed volatility in life expectancies, we propose mortality rate model based on deep learning techniques , which discovers complex patterns in data and extrapolated trends . Our results show that the recent reforms can effectively stave off the "pension crisis" and bring back the system on a sounder fiscal footing. At the same time, increasingly more workers can expect to spend greater share of their lifespan in retirement, despite the eligibility age rises. The population ageing due to the observed postponement of death until senectitude often occurs with the compression of morbidity, and thus will not, perforce, intrinsically strain healthcare costs. To a lesser degree, the future pension cost dependency ratio will depend on the post-Brexit relations between the UK and the EU, with "soft" alignment on the free movement lowering the relative cost of the pension system compared to the "hard" one. In the long term, however, the ratio has a rising tendency.
A
the ongoing
R
initiated by the Labour and continued by the Conservative governments
and changes in international migration patterns under different Brexit scenarios
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increasing trends
recently observed volatility
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implemented a custom extrapolation model for mortality rates,
propose mortality rate model
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, which discovers complex patterns in data and extrapolated trends
A
observed
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advanced old age
senectitude
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also