We consider variations in the rate of spread of COVID-19 , firstly comparing between European countries and secondly comparing between US states. We show that the population density has a small but significant effect on the rate of spread of the virus. However we show that measures of ` lived population density', which capture density as perceived by a randomly chosen person, do a better job of explaining variations in the rate of spread , achieving R^2 = 0.45 in Europe. We show that adding further measures based on the timing of the outbreak into the regression can increase this to R^2 = 0.58 .
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has progressed with varying degrees of intensity in individual countries, suggesting it is important to analyse factors that vary between them. We study measures of ` population-weighted density', which capture density as perceived by a randomly chosen individual. These measures of population density can significantly explain variation in the initial rate of spread of COVID-19 between countries within Europe. However, such measures do not explain differences on a global scale, particularly when considering countries in East Asia, or looking later into the epidemics. Therefore, to control for country-level differences in response to COVID-19 we consider the cross-cultural measure of individualism proposed by Hofstede. This score can significantly explain variation in the size of epidemics across Europe, North America, and East Asia. Using both our measure of population-weighted density and the Hofstede score we can significantly explain half the variation in the current size of epidemics across Europe and North America. By controlling for country-level responses to the virus and population density, our analysis of the global incidence of COVID-19 can help focus attention on epidemic control measures that are effective for individual countries .
R
We consider variations in the rate of spread of
The ongoing
R
, firstly comparing between European countries and secondly comparing between US states. We show that the population density has a small but significant effect on the rate of spread of the virus. However we show that
pandemic has progressed with varying degrees of intensity in individual countries, suggesting it is important to analyse factors that vary between them. We study
R
lived population
population-weighted
R
person, do a better job of explaining variations in the
individual. These measures of population density can significantly explain variation in the initial
R
, achieving R^2 = 0.45 in Europe. We show that adding further measures based on the timing of the outbreak into the regression can increase this to R^2 = 0.58
of COVID-19 between countries within Europe. However, such measures do not explain differences on a global scale, particularly when considering countries in East Asia, or looking later into the epidemics. Therefore, to control for country-level differences in response to COVID-19 we consider the cross-cultural measure of individualism proposed by Hofstede. This score can significantly explain variation in the size of epidemics across Europe, North America, and East Asia. Using both our measure of population-weighted density and the Hofstede score we can significantly explain half the variation in the current size of epidemics across Europe and North America. By controlling for country-level responses to the virus and population density, our analysis of the global incidence of COVID-19 can help focus attention on epidemic control measures that are effective for individual countries