More than one year after the emergence of COVID-19 , mass vaccination plans appear as a promising long-term exit strategy . However, declining compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) pose a latent risk of force-lifting restrictions too early, when most of the population remains susceptible. Using our age-stratified compartmental model and carefully curated epidemiological data from Germany and Europe, we study different scenarios for the long-term containment of COVID-19 in Europe, ranging from i) immediate release of measures and re-implementing NPIs only if risking a hospital overflow, to ii) driving case-numbers further down to profit from the additional stability gained by test-trace-isolate (TTI) measures. We found that in all scenarios restrictions can be lifted steadily -- at the pace of vaccination . Differences in restriction levels are only of short duration: If restrictions are lifted faster than the pace of vaccination , more freedom is gained only transiently until full intensive care units require installing restrictions again. Keeping case numbers at a low level instead a) reduces the number of fatalities considerably, b) allows to make full use of TTI programs and , in addition, c) offers a better preparedness if escape variants of the virus challenge the vaccination strategy.\\%DIF > ). Strategies that maintain low case numbers instead of high ones reduce infections and deaths by a factor of eight and four. Policies with low case numbers significantly benefit from vaccination, as the overall reduction in susceptibility will further diminish viral spread. Keeping case numbers low is the safest long-term strategy because it i) considerably reduces mortality and morbidity, ii) offers better preparedness against escape virus variants, and iii) allows higher contact numbers ("freedom") over the summer.
Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic . However, as vaccination progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase, despite most of the population still being susceptible. Using our age-stratified model and curated epidemiological and vaccination data, we quantified at which pace European countries can lift restrictions without overwhelming their health-care systems. The analysed scenarios range from immediately lifting restriction (accepting high mortality and morbidity) to reducing case numbers until test-trace-and-isolate programs facilitate control. In general, the age-dependent vaccination roll-out implies a transient decrease in the average age of ICU patients and deaths by about seven years. The pace of vaccination determines the speed of lifting restrictions; all scenarios allow to steadily increase contacts starting in May 2021 and relax most restrictions by autumn 2021. Throughout summer, only moderate contact restrictions remain necessary. However, with the assumed vaccination protection, further waves among the unvaccinated population can only be avoided with high vaccine uptake (>90\\%DIF > ). Strategies that maintain low case numbers instead of high ones reduce infections and deaths by a factor of eight and four. Policies with low case numbers significantly benefit from vaccination, as the overall reduction in susceptibility will further diminish viral spread. Keeping case numbers low is the safest long-term strategy because it i) considerably reduces mortality and morbidity, ii) offers better preparedness against escape virus variants, and iii) allows higher contact numbers ("freedom") over the summer.
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More than one year after the emergence of
Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the
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, mass vaccination plans appear as a promising long-term exit strategy
pandemic
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declining compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) pose a latent risk of force-lifting restrictions too early, when
as vaccination progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase, despite
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remains
still being
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compartmental model and carefully curated epidemiological data from Germany and Europe, we study different scenarios for the long-term containment of COVID-19 in Europe, ranging from i) immediate release of measures and re-implementing NPIs only if risking a hospital overflow, to ii) driving case-numbers further down to profit from the additional stability gained by test-trace-isolate (TTI) measures. We found that in all scenarios restrictions can be lifted steadily -- at the pace of vaccination . Differences in restriction levels are only of short duration: If restrictions are lifted faster than the
model and curated epidemiological and vaccination data, we quantified at which pace European countries can lift restrictions without overwhelming their health-care systems. The analysed scenarios range from immediately lifting restriction (accepting high mortality and morbidity) to reducing case numbers until test-trace-and-isolate programs facilitate control. In general, the age-dependent vaccination roll-out implies a transient decrease in the average age of ICU patients and deaths by about seven years. The
R
, more freedom is gained only transiently until full intensive care units require installing restrictions again. Keeping case numbers at a low level instead a) reduces the number of fatalities considerably, b) allows to make full use of TTI programs and , in addition, c) offers a better preparedness if escape variants of the virus challenge the vaccination strategy.
determines the speed of lifting restrictions; all scenarios allow to steadily increase contacts starting in May 2021 and relax most restrictions by autumn 2021. Throughout summer, only moderate contact restrictions remain necessary. However, with the assumed vaccination protection, further waves among the unvaccinated population can only be avoided with high vaccine uptake (>90