We give some numerical observations on the total number of infected by the recent COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. The analysis is very simple and is adapted from the well-known SIR model. A tanh formula with two parametersis taken into consideration . A polynomial correlation between the parameters is formulated, giving an upper bound for the time of the peak of new infected. The result is discussed in the conclusions.
We give some numerical observations on the total number of infected by the SARS-CoV-2 in Italy. The analysis is based on a tanh formula involving two parameters . A polynomial correlation between the parameters gives an upper bound for the time of the peak of new infected. A numerical indicator of the temporal variability of the upper bound is introduced. The result and the possibility to extend the analysis to other countries are discussed in the conclusions.
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recent COVID-19 epidemic
SARS-CoV-2
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very simple and is adapted from the well-known SIR model. A tanh formula with two parametersis taken into consideration
based on a tanh formula involving two parameters
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is formulated, giving
gives
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The result is
A numerical indicator of the temporal variability of the upper bound is introduced. The result and the possibility to extend the analysis to other countries are