Critique The 2009 documentary  If Lynch Had Invaded  interviewed a number of academics, former civil servants  and Irish Army officers, and they put forward a number of theories:"If Lynch Had Invaded", RTÉ Television. The plan to occupy Newry would not save any Catholic refugees, as it was a predominantly Catholic town with no inter-sectarian riots. The Catholic parts of Derry had suffered assaults from the Royal Ulster Constabulary and Protestant mobs, but was effectively ring-fenced on the introduction of British troops in August; as of October 1969, further attacks were unlikely. Invading the territory of a much larger and much more powerful country was too much of a risk to the security of Ireland. The United Kingdom could retaliate massively. The possibility of British occupation as a result of the plan was highly likely. The plan ignored the incompatibility of forces. The United Kingdom was a member of NATO, while the Irish Defence Forces were much smaller than the British Armed Forces, had inferior arms and transportation in comparison to British forces, and had only minimal air and naval capabilities. The Defence Forces were said to train for "World War II operations using World War I weapons", such as the Lee–Enfield rifle , although most Irish soldiers were armed with  FN FAL 7.62 automatic rifles  . Former Irish officers such as Vincent Savino recalled that the Irish Army was "so short of the basics", having been allowed to run down since 1945 by the same politicians who now wanted it to undertake such a dangerous mission. By contrast, British forces in Northern Ireland consisted of almost 3,000 heavily armed soldiers of the 2nd Queens Regiment, the Royal Regiment of Wales, and the Prince of Wales's Own Regiment of Yorkshire. These troops had considerable experience in training and conventional large-scale combat tactics, and many had returned from guarding NATO's Northern Flank. They were equipped with Humber Pig and Saracen armored personnel carriers. Royal Air Force F-4 Phantom and Harrier jets were also stationed at airbases within short flying time from Northern Ireland. These forces would have been capable of dealing decisively with any Irish military incursion into the area. The mismatch was reflected in the choice of title. According to security analyst Tom Clonan, "irrespective of the element of surprise, the Irish Army would have been subject to a massive British counterattack – probably within hours of their initial incursion. Irish casualties would have been very high as the British would have sought to swiftly and indiscriminately end the Republic's capabilities and occupy the Republic via military intervention". In 1969, both the Republic and the UK were applying to join the European Economic Community. The Republic's application would likely have been jeopardised if it had invaded a "friendly neighbour". While the Irish government had called for United Nations involvement in Northern Ireland in August 1969, launching a localised but technical invasion  and then calling again for intervention  would have led to universal condemnation, being contrary to international law. The Republic of Ireland had joined the UN only in 1955. All members of NATO are bound by the North Atlantic Treaty to oppose a military incursion on a member state; this would probably force the United States and the rest of the NATO members to intervene. The targets for covert operations, such as the BBC offices in Belfast, were already guarded by the British Army to protect them from local rioters. None of these targets were linked to the inter-sectarian riots. An intrusion might have provoked new and more widespread sectarian rioting, causing hundreds of deaths. An invasion of Northern Ireland by the armed forces of the Republic would likely have met with the same overwhelmingly negative international response as the UK's invasion of the Suez Canal zone during the Suez Crisis in 1956. Historian Diarmaid Ferriter considers that the operation would have been popular at the time, given the strong emotive feeling in the Republic about the situation in Northern Ireland.
Critique The 2009 documentary , If Lynch Had Invaded , interviewed a number of academics, former civil servants , and Irish Army officers, and they put forward a number of theories:"If Lynch Had Invaded", RTÉ Television. The plan to occupy Newry would not save any Catholic refugees, as it was a predominantly Catholic town with no inter-sectarian riots. The Catholic parts of Derry had suffered assaults from the Royal Ulster Constabulary and Protestant mobs, but was effectively ring-fenced on the introduction of British troops in August; as of October 1969, further attacks were unlikely. Invading the territory of a much larger and much more powerful country was too much of a risk to the security of Ireland. The United Kingdom could retaliate massively. The possibility of British occupation as a result of the plan was highly likely. The plan ignored the incompatibility of forces. The United Kingdom was a member of NATO, while the Irish Defence Forces were much smaller than the British Armed Forces, had inferior arms and transportation in comparison to British forces, and had only minimal air and naval capabilities. The Defence Forces were said to train for "World War II operations using World War I weapons", such as the Lee–Enfield rifle ( most Irish soldiers were armed with calibre-equivalent FN FAL 7.62 automatic rifles ) . Former Irish officers such as Vincent Savino recalled that the Irish Army was "so short of the basics", having been allowed to run down since 1945 by the same politicians who now wanted it to undertake such a dangerous mission. By contrast, British forces in Northern Ireland consisted of almost 3,000 heavily armed soldiers of the 2nd Queens Regiment, the Royal Regiment of Wales, and the Prince of Wales's Own Regiment of Yorkshire. These troops had considerable experience in training and conventional large-scale combat tactics, and many had returned from guarding NATO's Northern Flank. They were equipped with Humber Pig and Saracen armored personnel carriers. Royal Air Force F-4 Phantom and Harrier jets were also stationed at airbases within short flying time from Northern Ireland. These forces would have been capable of dealing decisively with any Irish military incursion into the area. The mismatch was reflected in the choice of title. According to security analyst Tom Clonan, "irrespective of the element of surprise, the Irish Army would have been subject to a massive British counterattack – probably within hours of their initial incursion. Irish casualties would have been very high as the British would have sought to swiftly and indiscriminately end the Republic's capabilities and occupy the Republic via military intervention". In 1969, both the Republic and the UK were applying to join the European Economic Community. The Republic's application would likely have been jeopardised if it had invaded a "friendly neighbour". While the Irish government had called for United Nations involvement in Northern Ireland in August 1969, launching a localised but technical invasion , and then calling again for intervention , would have led to universal condemnation, being contrary to international law. The Republic of Ireland had joined the UN only in 1955. All members of NATO are bound by the North Atlantic Treaty to oppose a military incursion on a member state; this would probably force the United States and the rest of the NATO members to intervene. The targets for covert operations, such as the BBC offices in Belfast, were already guarded by the British Army to protect them from local rioters. None of these targets were linked to the inter-sectarian riots. An intrusion might have provoked new and more widespread sectarian rioting, causing hundreds of deaths. An invasion of Northern Ireland by the armed forces of the Republic would likely have met with the same overwhelmingly negative international response as the UK's invasion of the Suez Canal zone during the Suez Crisis in 1956. Nevertheless, historian Diarmaid Ferriter considers that the operation would have been popular at the time, given the strong emotive feeling in the Republic about the situation in Northern Ireland.
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Historian
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