We analyze the early data on COVID-19 expansion in selected European countries using an analytical parametric model. A description of the time dependence of the disease expansion and a method to evaluate trends of the expansionare proposed. Several features are observed in the data, namely a high predictability of the expansion of disease in Italy and a convergence of the "pushback" parameter towards a limiting value in all the countries where restrictive measures have been adopted. Basic predictions for the evolution of the disease expansion are made for selected countries with a stable evolution in the parametric space of the model. The findings presentedhere should contribute to the understanding of the behavior of the disease expansion and the role of the restrictive measures on the evolution of the expansion .
The data on number of registered cases of COVID-19 disease in twenty European countries is analyzed by the least-squares fitting procedure with generic analytic functions. Three regimes of the expansion of the disease are identified and quantified -- early exponential expansion, damped exponential, and linear expansion. Differences among countries in the early expansion period are quantified. The velocity of the expansion in the exponential regime lies within one standard deviation from the average value for 11 countries. The number of infected individuals at the initial time is excessively high for Italy, 7 standard deviations from the average value. Method for predicting the expansion based on extrapolation in the parametric space is presented. One-week predictions based on extrapolations have average precision of 18\% and 29\% during the later period of the damped exponential expansion for the case of Italy and Czechia, respectively. The method based on extrapolations in the parametric space may provide an elementary method to quantify the impact of restrictive measures on the spreading of the disease .
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We analyze the early data on
The data on number of registered cases of
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expansion in selected European countries using an analytical parametric model. A description of the time dependence
disease in twenty European countries is analyzed by the least-squares fitting procedure with generic analytic functions. Three regimes of the expansion
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expansion and a method to evaluate trends of the expansionare proposed. Several features are observed in the data, namely a high predictability
are identified and quantified -- early exponential expansion, damped exponential, and linear expansion. Differences among countries in the early expansion period are quantified. The velocity
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of disease in Italy and a convergence of the "pushback" parameter towards a limiting value in all the countries where restrictive measures have been adopted. Basic predictions for
in
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evolution of the disease expansion are made for selected countries with a stable evolution
exponential regime lies within one standard deviation from the average value for 11 countries. The number of infected individuals at the initial time is excessively high for Italy, 7 standard deviations from the average value. Method for predicting the expansion based on extrapolation
R
of the model. The findings presentedhere should contribute to the understanding of the behavior of the disease expansion and the role of the
is presented. One-week predictions based on extrapolations have average precision of 18\% and 29\% during the later period of the damped exponential expansion for the case of Italy and Czechia, respectively. The method based on extrapolations in the parametric space may provide an elementary method to quantify the impact of
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evolution of the expansion
spreading of the disease