Network scientists  proposed that infectious diseases  may be effectively halted by targeting interventions at a minority of highly connected individuals , or hubs . Can this strategy be effective in combating a disease transmitted through physical proximity such as SARS-CoV-2  ? Effectiveness critically depends on high between-person variability in the number of close-range contacts. We analyze population survey data showing that indeed the distribution of close-range contacts across individuals is characterized by a small fraction of individuals reporting very high frequencies. Strikingly,  the average duration of contact is mostly invariant in the number of contacts, reinforcing the criticality of hubs. We simulate a population with empirical contact distributions coming out of lockdown . Simulations show that targeting hubs dramatically improves containment. Our results further suggest two concrete procedures for identifying high-contact individuals: acquaintance sampling and employment-based targeting .
Network scientists have proposed that infectious diseases involving person-to-person transmission may be effectively halted by targeting interventions at a minority of highly connected individuals . Can this strategy be effective in combating a virus partly transmitted in close-range contact, as many believe SARS-CoV-2 to be ? Effectiveness critically depends on high between-person variability in the number of close-range contacts. We analyze population survey data showing that indeed the distribution of close-range contacts across individuals is characterized by a small fraction of individuals reporting very high frequencies. Strikingly, we find that the average duration of contact is mostly invariant in the number of contacts, reinforcing the criticality of hubs. We simulate a population embedded in a network with empirically observed contact frequencies . Simulations show that targeting hubs robustly improves containment .
A
have
A
involving person-to-person transmission
D
, or hubs
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disease transmitted through physical proximity such as
virus partly transmitted in close-range contact, as many believe
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to be
A
we find that
R
with empirical contact distributions coming out of lockdown
embedded in a network with empirically observed contact frequencies
R
dramatically improves containment. Our results further suggest two concrete procedures for identifying high-contact individuals: acquaintance sampling and employment-based targeting
robustly improves containment