While containment policies of the Covid-19 epidemic have been applied in different countries, a comparative quantitative measure of the efficiency of these policies is not available . We show here that the time evolution of the pandemic doubling time Td(t)  is a reliable  measure of the  efficiency of the Lockdown, case Finding , mobile Tracing (LFT) policy using modern technologies versus the traditional Lockdown Stop and Go (LSG) policy . This goal has been achieved to verify by extracting the time evolution of the doubling time Td(t). The results provide a quantitative measure and make possible predictions on the time evolution of epidemic for different containment policy. Where the lowest s factor , the characteristic time of the exponential growing Td(t) in the arrested regime, was reached by LFT policy also the lowest number of deaths and the shorter time width of the epidemic dome was reached. The record for the largest number of deaths is correlated with the largest s factor in the near threshold regime where no containment measures were taken in time. LFT policy has been able to reduce both the intensity and time width of the Covid-19 pandemic dome achieving both a low number of deaths and low economic losses
The Covid-19 epidemic of the novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome SARS - CoV-2) has been spreading around the world. While different containment policies using non-pharmaceutical interventions have been applied , their efficiency are not known quantitatively . We show that the doubling time Td(t) with the success s factor, the characteristic time of the exponential growth of Td(t) in the arrested regime, is a reliable tool for early predictions of epidemic spread time evolution and it provides a quantitative measure of the success of different containment measures. The efficiency of the containment policy Lockdown case Finding mobile Tracing (LFT) using mandatory mobile contact tracing is much higher than the Lockdown Stop and Go (LSG) policy proposed by the Imperial College team in London. A very low s factor was reached by LFT policy giving the shortest time width of the dome of positive case curve and the lowest number of fatalities. The LFT policy has been able to reduce by a factor 100 the number of fatalities in the first 100 days of the Covid-19 epidemic, to reduce the time width of the Covid-19 pandemic dome by a factor 2.5 and to rapidly stop new outbreaks avoiding the second wave
R
While containment policies of the
The
R
epidemic
epidemic of the novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome SARS - CoV-2) has been spreading around the world. While different containment policies using non-pharmaceutical interventions
R
in different countries, a comparative quantitative measure of the efficiency of these policies is not available
, their efficiency are not known quantitatively
R
here that the time evolution of the pandemic doubling time
that the doubling time Td(t) with the success s factor, the characteristic time of the exponential growth of
A
in the arrested regime,
A
tool for early predictions of epidemic spread time evolution and it provides a quantitative
A
success of different containment measures. The
R
Lockdown, case Finding ,
containment policy Lockdown case Finding
R
policy using modern technologies versus the traditional
using mandatory mobile contact tracing is much higher than the
R
. This goal has been achieved to verify by extracting the time evolution of the doubling time Td(t). The results provide a quantitative measure and make possible predictions on the time evolution of epidemic for different containment policy. Where the lowest s factor , the characteristic time of the exponential growing Td(t) in the arrested regime,
proposed by the Imperial College team in London. A very low s factor
R
also the lowest number of deaths and the shorter
giving the shortest
R
epidemic dome was reached. The record for the largest number of deaths is correlated with the largest s factor in the near threshold regime where no containment measures were taken in time.
dome of positive case curve and the lowest number of fatalities. The
R
both the intensity and
by a factor 100 the number of fatalities in the first 100 days of the Covid-19 epidemic, to reduce the
R
achieving both a low number of deaths and low economic losses
by a factor 2.5 and to rapidly stop new outbreaks avoiding the second wave