“ Mess. The zero phase can be called a mess because it contains no linkages between the system's elements. Such a definition of mess as ‘a disorderly, un-tidy, or dirty state of things’ we find in Webster's New World Dictionary. (...) Chaos. Mess should not be confused with the next phase, chaos, as this term is understood today. Arguably, chaos is the first phase of indeterminism that displays sufficient order to talk of the general problem of system development. The chaos phase is characterized by some ordering of accumulated statistical data and the emergence of the basic rules of interactions of inputs and outputs (not counting boundary conditions). Even such a seemingly limited ordering makes it possible to fix systemic regularities of the sort shown by Feigenbaum numbers and strange attractors. (...) Different types of orderings in the chaos phase may be brought together under the notion of directing, for they point to a possible general direction of system development and even its extreme states. But even if a general path is known, enormous difficulties remain in linking algorithmically the present state with the final one and in operationalizing the algorithms. These objectives are realized in the next two large phases that I call predispositioning and programming. (...) Programming. When linkages between states are established through reactive procedures, either by table functions or analytically, it is often assumed that each state is represented only by essentials. For instance, the production function in economics ties together inputs and outputs in physical terms. When a system is represented as an equilibrium or an optimization model, the original and conjugated parameters are stated explicitly; in economics, they are products (resources) and prices, respectively.9 Deterministic economic models have been extensively formalized; they assume full knowledge of inputs, outputs, and existing technologies. (...) Predispositioning (...) exhibits less complete linkages between system's elements than programming but more complete than chaos. ” Katsenelinboigen, Aron. The Concept of Indeterminism and Its Applications: Economics, Social Systems, Ethics, Artificial Intelligence, and Aesthetics Praeger: Westport, Connecticut, 1997}} Unfortunately, predispositioning as a method as well as a predisposition as an intermediate stage have never been discussed by scholars, though there were some interesting intuitive attempts to deal with the formation of a predisposition. The game of chess, at this point, was one of the most productive fields in the study of predispositioning as a method. Owing to chess’ focus on the positional style, it elaborated a host of innovative strategies and tactics that Katsenelinboigen analyzed and systematized and made them a basis for his theory. To sum up, the main focus of predispositioning theory is on the intermediate stage of systems development, the stage that Katsenelinboigen proposed to call a "predisposition". This stage is distinguished by semi-complete and semi-consistent linkages between its elements. The most vital question when dealing with semi-complete and semi-consistent stages of the system is the question of its evaluation. To this end, Katsenelinboigen elaborated his structure of values, using the game of chess as a model. Katsenelinboigen outlines two extreme cases of the spectrum of values—fully conditional and fully unconditional—and says that, in actuality, they are ineffectual in evaluating the material and so are sometimes replaced by semiconditional or semiunconditional valuations, which are distinguished by their differing degrees of conditionality. He defines fully conditional values as those based on complete and consistent linkages among all four preconditions. ” V. Ulea, The Concept of Dramatic Genre and The Comedy of A New Type. Chess, Literature, and Film. Southern Illinois University Press, 2002}} “ The difference between these two approaches is clearly manifested in the various translations of the Torah. For instance, The Holy Scriptures (1955), a new translation based on the masoretic text (a vast body of the textual criticism of the Hebrew Bible), translates the commandment as ‘Thou shalt not commit murder.’ In The Holy Bible, commonly known as the authorized (King James) version (The Gideons International, 1983), this commandment is translated as ‘Thou shalt not kill.’ (...) The difference between unconditional and semi-unconditional evaluations will become more prominent if we use the same example of ‘Thou shalt not kill and ‘Thou shalt not murder’ to illustrate the conduct of man in accordance with his precepts. In an extreme case, one who follows ‘Thou shalt not kill’ will allow himself to be killed before he kills another. These views are held by one of the Hindu sects in Sri Lanka (the former Ceylon). To the best of my knowledge, the former prime minister of Ceylon, Solomon Bandaranaike (1899-1959), belonged to this sect. He did not allow himself to kill an attacker and was murdered. As he lay bleeding to death, he did crawl over to the murderer and knock the pistol from his hand before it could be used against his wife, Sirimavo Bandaranaike. She later became the prime minister of Ceylon-Sri Lanka. ” Katsenelinboigen clearly explains why subjectivity of the managerial decision is inevitable: “ The original subjective evaluation of the situation by the decision-maker is critical in the creative strategic management. Subjectivity of the managerial decisions is inevitable due to the intrinsically indeterministic nature of the strategic management, meaning that the subjectivity arises not just because of the lack of scientific foundation in business management. The effective approach to the strategic decision-making, as demonstrated in the game of chess, presupposes that each player has a unique, individual vision of his strategic position. To make it more systematic, one should not substitute the player’s intuition with some objective laws that relate essential and positional parameters, but rather complement the intuition with the statistical analysis. ” Calculus of predispositions, a basic part of predispositioning theory, belongs to the indeterministic procedures. “ The key component of any indeterministic procedure is the evaluation of a position. Since it is impossible to devise a deterministic chain linking the inter-mediate state with the outcome of the game, the most complex component of any indeterministic method is assessing these intermediate stages. It is precisely the function of predispositions to assess the impact of an intermediate state upon the future course of development. ” According to Katsenelinboigen, calculus of predispositions is another method of computing probability. Both methods may lead to the same results and, thus, can be interchangeable. However, it is not always possible to interchange them since computing via frequencies requires availability of statistics, possibility to gather the data as well as having the knowledge of the extent to which one can interlink the system's constituent elements. Also, no statistics can be obtained on unique events and, naturally, in such cases the calculus of predispositions becomes the only option. The procedure of calculating predispositions is linked to two steps – dissection of the system on its constituent elements and integration of the analyzed parts in a new whole. According to Katsenelinboigen, the system is structured by two basic types of parameters – material and positional. The material parameters constitute the skeleton of the system. Relationships between them form positional parameters. The calculus of predispositions primarily deals with analyzing the system's material and positional parameters as independent variables and measuring them in unconditional valuations.  In order to quantify the evaluation of a position we need new techniques, which I have grouped under the heading of calculus of predispositions. This calculus is based on a weight function, which represents a variation on the well-known criterion of optimality for local extremum. This criterion incorporates material parameters and their conditional valuations. The following key elements distinguish the modified weight function from the criterion of optimality: First and foremost, the weight function includes not only material parameters as independent (controlling) variables, but also positional (relational) parameters. The valuations of material and positional parameters composing the weight function are, to a certain extent, unconditional; that is, they are independent of the specific conditions, but do take into account the rules of the game and statistics (experience). ”
" Mess. The zero phase can be called a mess because it contains no linkages between the system's elements. Such a definition of mess as ‘a disorderly, un-tidy, or dirty state of things’ we find in Webster's New World Dictionary. (...) Chaos. Mess should not be confused with the next phase, chaos, as this term is understood today. Arguably, chaos is the first phase of indeterminism that displays sufficient order to talk of the general problem of system development. The chaos phase is characterized by some ordering of accumulated statistical data and the emergence of the basic rules of interactions of inputs and outputs (not counting boundary conditions). Even such a seemingly limited ordering makes it possible to fix systemic regularities of the sort shown by Feigenbaum numbers and strange attractors. (...) Different types of orderings in the chaos phase may be brought together under the notion of directing, for they point to a possible general direction of system development and even its extreme states. But even if a general path is known, enormous difficulties remain in linking algorithmically the present state with the final one and in operationalizing the algorithms. These objectives are realized in the next two large phases that I call predispositioning and programming. (...) Programming. When linkages between states are established through reactive procedures, either by table functions or analytically, it is often assumed that each state is represented only by essentials. For instance, the production function in economics ties together inputs and outputs in physical terms. When a system is represented as an equilibrium or an optimization model, the original and conjugated parameters are stated explicitly; in economics, they are products (resources) and prices, respectively.9 Deterministic economic models have been extensively formalized; they assume full knowledge of inputs, outputs, and existing technologies. (...) Predispositioning (...) exhibits less complete linkages between system's elements than programming but more complete than chaos. " Katsenelinboigen, Aron. The Concept of Indeterminism and Its Applications: Economics, Social Systems, Ethics, Artificial Intelligence, and Aesthetics Praeger: Westport, Connecticut, 1997}} Unfortunately, predispositioning as a method as well as a predisposition as an intermediate stage have never been discussed by scholars, though there were some interesting intuitive attempts to deal with the formation of a predisposition. The game of chess, at this point, was one of the most productive fields in the study of predispositioning as a method. Owing to chess’ focus on the positional style, it elaborated a host of innovative strategies and tactics that Katsenelinboigen analyzed and systematized and made them a basis for his theory. To sum up, the main focus of predispositioning theory is on the intermediate stage of systems development, the stage that Katsenelinboigen proposed to call a "predisposition". This stage is distinguished by semi-complete and semi-consistent linkages between its elements. The most vital question when dealing with semi-complete and semi-consistent stages of the system is the question of its evaluation. To this end, Katsenelinboigen elaborated his structure of values, using the game of chess as a model. Katsenelinboigen outlines two extreme cases of the spectrum of values—fully conditional and fully unconditional—and says that, in actuality, they are ineffectual in evaluating the material and so are sometimes replaced by semiconditional or semiunconditional valuations, which are distinguished by their differing degrees of conditionality. He defines fully conditional values as those based on complete and consistent linkages among all four preconditions. " V. Ulea, The Concept of Dramatic Genre and The Comedy of A New Type. Chess, Literature, and Film. Southern Illinois University Press, 2002}} " The difference between these two approaches is clearly manifested in the various translations of the Torah. For instance, The Holy Scriptures (1955), a new translation based on the masoretic text (a vast body of the textual criticism of the Hebrew Bible), translates the commandment as ‘Thou shalt not commit murder.’ In The Holy Bible, commonly known as the authorized (King James) version (The Gideons International, 1983), this commandment is translated as ‘Thou shalt not kill.’ (...) The difference between unconditional and semi-unconditional evaluations will become more prominent if we use the same example of ‘Thou shalt not kill and ‘Thou shalt not murder’ to illustrate the conduct of man in accordance with his precepts. In an extreme case, one who follows ‘Thou shalt not kill’ will allow himself to be killed before he kills another. These views are held by one of the Hindu sects in Sri Lanka (the former Ceylon). To the best of my knowledge, the former prime minister of Ceylon, Solomon Bandaranaike (1899-1959), belonged to this sect. He did not allow himself to kill an attacker and was murdered. As he lay bleeding to death, he did crawl over to the murderer and knock the pistol from his hand before it could be used against his wife, Sirimavo Bandaranaike. She later became the prime minister of Ceylon-Sri Lanka. " Katsenelinboigen clearly explains why subjectivity of the managerial decision is inevitable: " The original subjective evaluation of the situation by the decision-maker is critical in the creative strategic management. Subjectivity of the managerial decisions is inevitable due to the intrinsically indeterministic nature of the strategic management, meaning that the subjectivity arises not just because of the lack of scientific foundation in business management. The effective approach to the strategic decision-making, as demonstrated in the game of chess, presupposes that each player has a unique, individual vision of his strategic position. To make it more systematic, one should not substitute the player’s intuition with some objective laws that relate essential and positional parameters, but rather complement the intuition with the statistical analysis. " Calculus of predispositions, a basic part of predispositioning theory, belongs to the indeterministic procedures. " The key component of any indeterministic procedure is the evaluation of a position. Since it is impossible to devise a deterministic chain linking the inter-mediate state with the outcome of the game, the most complex component of any indeterministic method is assessing these intermediate stages. It is precisely the function of predispositions to assess the impact of an intermediate state upon the future course of development. " According to Katsenelinboigen, calculus of predispositions is another method of computing probability. Both methods may lead to the same results and, thus, can be interchangeable. However, it is not always possible to interchange them since computing via frequencies requires availability of statistics, possibility to gather the data as well as having the knowledge of the extent to which one can interlink the system's constituent elements. Also, no statistics can be obtained on unique events and, naturally, in such cases the calculus of predispositions becomes the only option. The procedure of calculating predispositions is linked to two steps – dissection of the system on its constituent elements and integration of the analyzed parts in a new whole. According to Katsenelinboigen, the system is structured by two basic types of parameters – material and positional. The material parameters constitute the skeleton of the system. Relationships between them form positional parameters. The calculus of predispositions primarily deals with analyzing the system's material and positional parameters as independent variables and measuring them in unconditional valuations. " In order to quantify the evaluation of a position we need new techniques, which I have grouped under the heading of calculus of predispositions. This calculus is based on a weight function, which represents a variation on the well-known criterion of optimality for local extremum. This criterion incorporates material parameters and their conditional valuations. The following key elements distinguish the modified weight function from the criterion of optimality: First and foremost, the weight function includes not only material parameters as independent (controlling) variables, but also positional (relational) parameters. The valuations of material and positional parameters composing the weight function are, to a certain extent, unconditional; that is, they are independent of the specific conditions, but do take into account the rules of the game and statistics (experience). "
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