A modified SEIR model is used in the paper to evaluate the effect of inter-state migrant worker transportation during the lockdown in India . The model considers different levels of COVID-19 transmission during travel, daily arrival rate and total migrant workers. Indian states with significant migrant workers are considered to estimate the rise in confirmed and active COVID-19 cases . It is observed that reduced daily arrival rate of migrant workers can help Uttar Pradesh and Bihar to lower the rise in confirmed and active cases . By the end of May, 2020, the daily arrival rate of migrant workers will have similar effect on Rajasthan. For the daily arrival rate of migrant workers considered, Madhya Pradesh may experience higher rise in confirmed and active cases. Maharashtra, on the other hand, may experience marginal rise in the confirmed and active cases. A stringent policy to screen migrant workers for possible trace COVID-19 virus prior to the travel and stricter isolation norm after reaching the destination state can be helpful in reducing the rise in confirmed and actives cases attributed to the migrant worker transportation .
Nationwide lockdown for COVID-19 created an urgent demand for public transportation among migrant workers stranded at different parts of India to return to their native places. Arranging transportation could spike the number of COVID-19 infected cases. Hence, this paper investigates the potential surge in confirmed and active cases of COVID-19 infection and assesses the train and bus fleet size required for the repatriating migrant workers. The expected to repatriate migrant worker population was obtained by forecasting the 2011 census data and comparing it with the information reported in the news media. A modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model was proposed to estimate the surge in confirmed and active cases of COVID-19 patients in India's selected states with high outflux of migrants. The developed model considered combinations of different levels of the daily arrival rate of migrant workers , total migrant workers in need of transportation, and the origin of the trip dependent symptomatic cases on arrival. Reducing the daily arrival rate of migrant workers for states with very high outflux of migrants (i.e., Uttar Pradesh and Bihar) can help to lower the surge in confirmed and active cases. Nevertheless, it could create a disparity in the number of days needed to transport all repatriating migrant workers to the home states. Hence, travel arrangements for about 100,000 migrant workers per day to Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, about 50,000 per day to Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, 20,000 per day to Maharashtra and less than 20,000 per day to other states of India was recommended .
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A modified SEIR model is used in the paper to evaluate the effect of inter-state migrant worker transportation during the lockdown in India . The model considers different levels
Nationwide lockdown for COVID-19 created an urgent demand for public transportation among migrant workers stranded at different parts of India to return to their native places. Arranging transportation could spike the number
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transmission during travel, daily arrival rate and total migrant workers. Indian states with significant migrant workers are considered to estimate the rise
infected cases. Hence, this paper investigates the potential surge
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COVID-19 cases . It is observed that reduced daily arrival rate of migrant workers can help Uttar Pradesh and Bihar to lower the rise
cases of COVID-19 infection and assesses the train and bus fleet size required for the repatriating migrant workers. The expected to repatriate migrant worker population was obtained by forecasting the 2011 census data and comparing it with the information reported in the news media. A modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model was proposed to estimate the surge
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. By the end of May, 2020,
of COVID-19 patients in India's selected states with high outflux of migrants. The developed model considered combinations of different levels of
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will have similar effect on Rajasthan. For
, total migrant workers in need of transportation, and the origin of the trip dependent symptomatic cases on arrival. Reducing
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considered, Madhya Pradesh may experience higher rise
for states with very high outflux of migrants (i.e., Uttar Pradesh and Bihar) can help to lower the surge
R
Maharashtra, on the other hand, may experience marginal rise in the confirmed and active cases. A stringent policy to screen migrant workers for possible trace COVID-19 virus prior to the travel and stricter isolation norm after reaching the destination state can be helpful in reducing the rise in confirmed and actives cases attributed to the migrant worker transportation
Nevertheless, it could create a disparity in the number of days needed to transport all repatriating migrant workers to the home states. Hence, travel arrangements for about 100,000 migrant workers per day to Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, about 50,000 per day to Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, 20,000 per day to Maharashtra and less than 20,000 per day to other states of India was recommended