We investigate the efficacy of three social distancing controls on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 using an agent based SIR model on a small world network structure : 1) Global social distancing with a fixed probability of adherence. 2) Individually initiated social isolation when a threshold number of contacts are infected. 3) Use of personal protective equipment (PPE) to reduce viral shedding and resultant infectivity . The primary driver of total number of infections is the viral shedding rate, with probability of social distancing being the next critical factor. These results suggest that higher compliance with PPE usage and personal hygiene has the potential to decrease the number of infections and shorten epidemic duration. Individually initiated social isolation was effective when initiated in response to a single infected contact. The combination of social isolation and PPE resulted in very low levels of infection. Our model suggests that widespread application of social distancing through government control can drastically reduce viral spread; even in the absence of widely adopted social distancing protocols, high use of PPE can also dramatically reduce the viral spread while short-duration quarantine following exposure to an infected individual was less effective .
We investigate phase transitions associated with three control methods for epidemics on small world networks. Motivated by the behavior of SARS-CoV-2 , we construct a theoretical SIR model of a virus that exhibits presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and symptomatic stages in two possible pathways. Using agent-based simulations on small world networks, we observe phase transitions for epidemic spread related to : 1) Global social distancing with a fixed probability of adherence. 2) Individually initiated social isolation when a threshold number of contacts are infected. 3) Viral shedding rate . The primary driver of total number of infections is the viral shedding rate, with probability of social distancing being the next critical factor. Individually initiated social isolation was effective when initiated in response to a single infected contact. For each of these control measures, the total number of infections exhibits a sharp phase transition as the strength of the measure is varied .
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the efficacy of three social distancing controls on the spread
phase transitions associated with three control methods for epidemics on small world networks. Motivated by the behavior
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using an agent based SIR model on a small world network structure
, we construct a theoretical SIR model of a virus that exhibits presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and symptomatic stages in two possible pathways. Using agent-based simulations on small world networks, we observe phase transitions for epidemic spread related to
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Use of personal protective equipment (PPE) to reduce viral shedding and resultant infectivity
Viral shedding rate
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These results suggest that higher compliance with PPE usage and personal hygiene has the potential to decrease the number of infections and shorten epidemic duration.
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The combination of social isolation and PPE resulted in very low levels of infection. Our model suggests that widespread application of social distancing through government control can drastically reduce viral spread; even in the absence of widely adopted social distancing protocols, high use of PPE can also dramatically reduce the viral spread while short-duration quarantine following exposure to an infected individual was less effective
For each of these control measures, the total number of infections exhibits a sharp phase transition as the strength of the measure is varied