We consider the possibility of social and economical collapse of population caused by epidemics. We exploit a simplest toy model with negative feedback for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in population with its mutual influence on some formal resource (economical, financial, etc). For epidemics spreading we use the simple SIS model, supplemented with the simplest equation for the dynamics of the resource whose generation is determined by the active labor resource . We note that the patient's characteristic rehabilitation rate or recovery time depends on the cost of health services, cost of the bare subsistence level of consumption, E, and the availability of some formal resource \rho, e. g. money. Since the cost of services is fixed, the service is terminated if there is not enough personal, private, or collective financial resource\rho\ll E, the service is absent. Therefore, we suppose that recovery rate should have an activation character \sim\exp(-E/\rho). We show that depending on the rate of epidemics spreading and on the availability of formal resource, the system can come back to normal life, can overcome the stress or move to another stable but more "poor" state. Otherwise, the system can collapse . While collapsing, the system can pass through a number of quasi-stable states, its dynamics being resembling the so-called devil's staircase .
We consider a possibility of socioeconomic collapse caused by the spread of epidemic in a basic dynamical model with negative feedback between the infected population size and a formal collective economic resource. The epidemic-resource coupling is supposed to be of activation type, with the recovery rate governed by the Arrhenius-like law and resource playing the role of temperature. Such a coupling can result in the collapsing effect opposite to thermal explosion because of the limited resource. In this case, the system can no longer stabilize and return to the stable pre- or post-epidemic states. We demonstrate that such a collapse can partially be mitigated by means of a negative resource or debt .
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the possibility of social and economical collapse of population caused by epidemics. We exploit a simplest toy
a possibility of socioeconomic collapse caused by the spread of epidemic in a basic dynamical
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for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in population with its mutual influence on some formal resource (economical, financial, etc). For epidemics spreading we use the simple SIS model, supplemented with the simplest equation for the dynamics of the resource whose generation is determined by the active labor resource . We note that the patient's characteristic rehabilitation rate or recovery time depends on the cost of health services, cost of the bare subsistence level of consumption, E, and the availability of some formal resource \rho, e. g. money. Since the cost of services is fixed, the service is terminated if there is not enough personal, private, or collective financial resource\rho\ll E, the service is absent. Therefore, we suppose that recovery rate should have an activation character \sim\exp(-E/\rho). We show that depending on the rate of epidemics spreading and on the availability of formal resource, the system can come back to normal life, can overcome the stress or move to another stable but more "poor" state. Otherwise, the system can collapse . While collapsing, the system can pass through a number of quasi-stable states, its dynamics being resembling the so-called devil's staircase
between the infected population size and a formal collective economic resource. The epidemic-resource coupling is supposed to be of activation type, with the recovery rate governed by the Arrhenius-like law and resource playing the role of temperature. Such a coupling can result in the collapsing effect opposite to thermal explosion because of the limited resource. In this case, the system can no longer stabilize and return to the stable pre- or post-epidemic states. We demonstrate that such a collapse can partially be mitigated by means of a negative resource or debt