Progress to-date towards the ambitious global 2030 agenda for sustainable development has been limited, and upheaval from the COVID-19 pandemic will further exacerbate the already significant challenges to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) achievement. Here, we undertake a model-based global integrated assessment to characterise alternative pathways towards 36 time-bound, science-driven targets by 2030, 2050, and 2100. We show that it will be unlikely to jointly achieve socioeconomic and environmental targets by 2030, even under the most optimistic pathways and the least ambitious targets. Nonetheless, humanity can still avoid destabilisation of the Earth system and increase socioeconomic prosperity post-2030 via a Green Recovery pathway. A Green Recovery by mid- and end of the century requires reducing global population by 5\% and 26\%, empowering sustainable economic development by 32\% and 52\%, increasing education availability by 10\% and 40\%, reducing the total global fossil energy production by 36\% and 80\%, reducing agricultural land area by 7\% and 10\%, and promoting healthy and sustainable lifestyles by lowering consumption of animal-based foods (i.e., meat and dairy) by 39\% and 50\%, compared to the business-as-usual trajectories for 2050 and 2100, respectively. Our results show that the combination of these changes together towards extended, more ambitious goals by 2050 and 2100 is central to the transformative change needed to ensure that both people and planet prosper in medium- and long-term futures .
Progress to-date towards the UN Agenda 2030 has fallen short of expectations. We undertake a model-based global integrated assessment to project future progress by 2030, 2050, and 2100 and to characterise the transformations needed to deliver the global Sustainable Development Goals and an increasingly ambitious 21st century sustainability agenda. Our results quantify the scale and pace of transformations required through eight key entry points: increasing education access, powering sustainable economic development , controlling global population growth, lowering energy intensity across sectors, decarbonising energy systems, promoting healthy food diets, limiting agricultural land expansion, and reducing global emissions intensity. Our findings indicate many actions that appear to make a limited contribution to initial progress are in fact vital for accelerating change towards sustainable development later in the century .
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ambitious global
UN Agenda
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agenda for sustainable development has been limited, and upheaval from the COVID-19 pandemic will further exacerbate the already significant challenges to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) achievement. Here, we
has fallen short of expectations. We
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characterise alternative pathways towards 36 time-bound, science-driven targets
project future progress
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2100. We show that it will be unlikely to jointly achieve socioeconomic and environmental targets by 2030, even under the most optimistic pathways and the least ambitious targets. Nonetheless, humanity can still avoid destabilisation of the Earth system and increase socioeconomic prosperity post-2030 via a Green Recovery pathway. A Green Recovery by mid- and end of the century requires reducing global population by 5\% and 26\%, empowering
2100 and to characterise the transformations needed to deliver the global Sustainable Development Goals and an increasingly ambitious 21st century sustainability agenda. Our results quantify the scale and pace of transformations required through eight key entry points: increasing education access, powering
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by 32\% and 52\%, increasing education availability by 10\% and 40\%, reducing the total global fossil energy production by 36\% and 80\%, reducing agricultural land area by 7\% and 10\%, and promoting healthy and sustainable lifestyles by lowering consumption of animal-based foods (i.e., meat and dairy) by 39\% and 50\%, compared to the business-as-usual trajectories for 2050 and 2100, respectively. Our results show that the combination of these changes together towards extended, more ambitious goals by 2050
, controlling global population growth, lowering energy intensity across sectors, decarbonising energy systems, promoting healthy food diets, limiting agricultural land expansion,
R
2100 is central to the transformative change needed to ensure that both people and planet prosper in medium- and long-term futures
reducing global emissions intensity. Our findings indicate many actions that appear to make a limited contribution to initial progress are in fact vital for accelerating change towards sustainable development later in the century