The COVID-19 has been successfully contained in China but is spreading all over the world. We calibrate the logistic growth model, the generalized logistic growth model, the generalized Richards model and the generalized growth model to the reported number of infected cases from for the whole of China, 29 provinces in China, and 19 countries and regions that  are undergoing major outbreaks. We dissect the development of the epidemics in China and the impact of the drastic control measures both at the aggregate level and within each province. We quantitatively document four phases of the outbreak in China with a detailed analysis on the heterogeneous situations across provinces. The extreme containment measures implemented by China were very effective with some instructive variations across provinces. Borrowing from the experience of China, we made scenario projections on the development of the outbreak in other countries. We identified that Europe and US have passed the inflection point and entered into an after-peak trajectory, which is estimated longer than what a classical Logistic model predicts , in contrast to most provinces in China where the after-peak trajectory is much faster. We expect Europe to have 1.83 million final total confirmed cases (2452 per million population) and US to have 1.26 million final total confirmed cases (3851 per million population) . We identified three groups of countries in different level of outbreak progress, and provide informative implications for the current global pandemic.
Started in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 has been spreading all over the world. We calibrate the logistic growth model, the generalized logistic growth model, the generalized Richards model and the generalized growth model to the reported number of infected cases for the whole of China, 29 provinces in China, and 33 countries and regions that have been or are undergoing major outbreaks. We dissect the development of the epidemics in China and the impact of the drastic control measures both at the aggregate level and within each province. We quantitatively document four phases of the outbreak in China with a detailed analysis on the heterogeneous situations across provinces. The extreme containment measures implemented by China were very effective with some instructive variations across provinces. Borrowing from the experience of China, we made scenario projections on the development of the outbreak in other countries. We identified that outbreaks in 14 countries (mostly in western Europe) have ended, while resurgences of cases have been identified in several among them. The modeling results clearly show longer after-peak trajectories in western countries , in contrast to most provinces in China where the after-peak trajectory is characterized by a much faster decay . We identified three groups of countries in different level of outbreak progress, and provide informative implications for the current global pandemic.
R
The
Started in Wuhan, China, the
D
successfully contained in China but is
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from
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19
33
A
have been or
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Europe and US have passed the inflection point and entered into an
outbreaks in 14 countries (mostly in western Europe) have ended, while resurgences of cases have been identified in several among them. The modeling results clearly show longer
R
trajectory, which is estimated longer than what a classical Logistic model predicts
trajectories in western countries
R
much faster. We expect Europe to have 1.83 million final total confirmed cases (2452 per million population) and US to have 1.26 million final total confirmed cases (3851 per million population)
characterized by a much faster decay