Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have played a crucial role in controlling the spread of COVID-19. Nevertheless, NPI efficacy varies enormously between and within countries, mainly because of population and behavioral heterogeneity. In this work, we adapted a multi-group SEIRA model to study the spreading dynamics of COVID-19 in Chile, representing geographically separated regions of the country by different groups. We use national mobilization statistics to estimate the connectivity between regions and data from governmental repositories to obtain each region's spreading and infection fatality rate . We then assessed the effectiveness of different NPIs by studying the temporal evolution of the reproduction number Rt. Analyzing data-driven and model-based estimates of Rt, we found a strong coupling of different regions, highlighting the necessity URLanized , coordinated actions to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we evaluated different scenarios to forecast the evolution of COVID-19 in the most densely populated regions, finding that the early lifting of restriction probably will lead to novel outbreaks.
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have played a crucial role in controlling the spread of COVID-19. Nevertheless, NPI efficacy varies enormously between and within countries, mainly because of population and behavioural heterogeneity. In this work, we adapted a multi-group SEIRA model to study the spreading dynamics of COVID-19 in Chile, representing geographically separated regions of the country by different groups. We use national mobilization statistics to estimate the connectivity between regions and data from governmental repositories to obtain COVID-19 spreading and death rates in each region . We then assessed the effectiveness of different NPIs by studying the temporal evolution of the reproduction number Rt. Analyzing data-driven and model-based estimates of Rt, we found a strong coupling of different regions, highlighting the necessity URLanized and coordinated actions to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we evaluated different scenarios to forecast the evolution of COVID-19 in the most densely populated regions, finding that the early lifting of restriction probably will lead to novel outbreaks.
R
behavioral
behavioural
R
each region's spreading and infection fatality rate
COVID-19 spreading and death rates in each region
R
,
and