Recent studies conclude that the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic decreased power sector CO_2 emissions worldwide. We analyze the statistical significance of CO_2 emissions reductions in the U.S  power sector from March through July 2020 and we present model-informed expectations of the likelihood of sustained reductions in CO_2 emissions. We use Gaussian process (GP) regression to assess whether CO_2 emissions reductions would have occurred with reasonable probability in the absence of COVID-19 considering uncertainty due to factors unrelated to the pandemic . We show that CO_2 emissions are lower than levels expected in the absence of COVID-19 for each month from March through July 2020 but that those monthly reductions are not statistically significant considering hypothesis tests at 5\% significance levels. To make predictions about whether COVID-19-related CO_2 emissions reductions will be sustained in the power sector, we assess the relative impacts of the pandemic on electricity generation (E) and on the carbon intensity of electricity supply (C/E).E is on average 2.9%DIFDELCMD < \\%%% %DIF < lower than what we would expect in the absence of COVID-19 from March through July 2020. We expect E to rebound alongside a recovery of the U.S. economy. C/E is determined to be 2.7\% lower on average than what we would expect in the absence of COVID-19 from March through July 2020. Reductions in C/E are mostly attributable to reductions in the share of coal-fired electricity generation. We analyze the expected profitability through 2021 of the 845 coal-fired power plant units operating in the U.S. We find that only 76 of those units, representing 1.3\% of total coal generation capacity, were expected to be profitable prior to COVID-19 but are no longer expected to be profitable. We conclude that COVID-19 is unlikely to have a material impact on U.S. power sector CO_2 emissions in the long-run.abstract 
Recent studies conclude that the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic decreased power sector CO_2 emissions globally and in the United States. In this paper, we analyze the statistical significance of CO2 emissions reductions in the U.S . power sector from March through December 2020. We use Gaussian process (GP) regression to assess whether CO2 emissions reductions would have occurred with reasonable probability in the absence of COVID-19 considering uncertainty due to factors unrelated to the pandemic and adjusting for weather, seasonality, and recent emissions trends. We find that monthly CO2 emissions reductions are only statistically significant in April and May 2020 considering hypothesis tests at 5\% significance levels. Separately, we consider the potential impact of COVID-19 on coal-fired power plant retirements through 2022. We find that only a small percentage of U.S. coal power plants are at risk of retirement due to a possible COVID-19-related %DIFDELCMD < \\%%% %DIF < lower than what we would expect in the absence of COVID-19 from March through July 2020. We expect E to rebound alongside a recovery of the U.S. economy. C/E is determined to be 2.7\% lower on average than what we would expect in the absence of COVID-19 from March through July 2020. Reductions in C/E are mostly attributable to reductions in the share of coal-fired electricity generation. We analyze the expected profitability through 2021 of the 845 coal-fired power plant units operating in the U.S. We find that only 76 of those units, representing 1.3\% of total coal generation capacity, were expected to be profitable prior to COVID-19 but are no longer expected to be profitable. We conclude that COVID-19 is unlikely to have a material impact on U.S. power sector CO_2 emissions in the long-run.abstract sustained reduction in electricity demand and prices. We observe and anticipate a return to pre-COVID-19 CO2 emissions in the U.S. power sector.
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worldwide. We
globally and in the United States. In this paper, we
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July 2020 and we present model-informed expectations of the likelihood of sustained reductions in CO_2 emissions.
December 2020.
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. We show that CO_2 emissions are lower than levels expected in the absence of COVID-19 for each month from March through July
and adjusting for weather, seasonality, and recent emissions trends. We find that monthly CO2 emissions reductions are only statistically significant in April and May
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but that those monthly reductions are not statistically significant
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To make predictions about whether
Separately, we consider the potential impact of COVID-19 on coal-fired power plant retirements through 2022. We find that only a small percentage of U.S. coal power plants are at risk of retirement due to a possible
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CO_2 emissions reductions will be sustained in the power sector, we assess the relative impacts of the pandemic on electricity generation (E) and on the carbon intensity of electricity supply (C/E).E is on average 2.9
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sustained reduction in electricity demand and prices. We observe and anticipate a return to pre-COVID-19 CO2 emissions in the U.S. power sector.