Examining the topological properties of networks formed by such guarantee relationships is critical for an in-depth understanding and effective regulations of the financial system. In this research, we analyzed the structure and evolution of the Chinese guarantee network with real-world data from 2007 to 2012. We identified the scale-free and power-law properties of the guarantee network and found the global financial crisis and follow-up economic stimulus program had a significant influence on the evolution of the guarantee network. In particular, both the growth and connectivity of the guarantee network was diminished by the 2008 financial crisis , and enhanced by the following stimulus program. This research presents data-driven insights on how the topological structure of the guarantee network is associated with economic policies .
Our knowledge about the evolution of guarantee network in downturn period is limited due to the lack of comprehensive data of the whole credit system. Here we analyze the dynamic Chinese guarantee network constructed from a comprehensive bank loan dataset that accounts for nearly 80\% total loans in China, during 01/2007-03/ 2012. The results show that, first, during the 2007-2008 global financial crisis, the guarantee network became smaller, less connected and more stable because of many bankruptcies; second, the stimulus program encouraged mutual guarantee behaviors, resulting in highly reciprocal and fragile network structure; third, the following monetary policy adjustment enhanced the resilience of the guarantee network by reducing mutual guarantees. Interestingly, our work reveals that the financial crisis made the network more resilient, and conversely, the government bailout degenerated network resilience. These counterintuitive findings can provide new insight into the resilience of real-world credit system under external shocks or rescues .
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Examining the topological properties of networks formed by such guarantee relationships is critical for an in-depth understanding and effective regulations of the financial system. In this research, we analyzed the structure and evolution of the
Our knowledge about the evolution of guarantee network in downturn period is limited due to the lack of comprehensive data of the whole credit system. Here we analyze the dynamic
R
with real-world data from 2007 to
constructed from a comprehensive bank loan dataset that accounts for nearly 80\% total loans in China, during 01/2007-03/
R
We identified the scale-free and power-law properties of
The results show that, first, during the 2007-2008 global financial crisis,
R
and found the global financial crisis and follow-up economic stimulus program had a significant influence on the evolution of the guarantee network. In particular, both the growth and connectivity
became smaller, less connected and more stable because of many bankruptcies; second, the stimulus program encouraged mutual guarantee behaviors, resulting in highly reciprocal and fragile network structure; third, the following monetary policy adjustment enhanced the resilience
R
was diminished by the 2008 financial crisis , and enhanced by the following stimulus program. This research presents data-driven insights on how the topological structure of the guarantee network is associated with economic policies
by reducing mutual guarantees. Interestingly, our work reveals that the financial crisis made the network more resilient, and conversely, the government bailout degenerated network resilience. These counterintuitive findings can provide new insight into the resilience of real-world credit system under external shocks or rescues