The downward trend in Arctic sea ice is a key factor determining the pace and intensity of future global climate change; moreover, declines in sea ice can have a wide range of additional environmental and economic consequences  . Based on several decades of satellite data, we provide statistical forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent during the rest of this century. The best-fitting statistical model indicates that sea ice is diminishing at an increasing rate. By contrast, average projections from the CMIP5 global climate models foresee a gradual slowing of  sea ice loss even in  high carbon emissions scenarios . Our long-range statistical projections also deliver probability assessments of the timing of an ice-free Arctic. This analysis indicates almost a 60 percent chance of an effectively ice-free Arctic Ocean in the 2030s -- much earlier than the average projection from  global climate models.
The downward trend in the amount of Arctic sea ice has a wide range of environmental and economic consequences including important effects on the pace and intensity of global climate change . Based on several decades of satellite data, we provide statistical forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent during the rest of this century. The best fitting statistical model indicates that overall sea ice coverage is declining at an increasing rate. By contrast, average projections from the CMIP5 global climate models foresee a gradual slowing of Arctic sea ice loss even in scenarios with high carbon emissions . Our long-range statistical projections also deliver probability assessments of the timing of an ice-free Arctic. These results indicate almost a 60 percent chance of an effectively ice-free Arctic Ocean sometime during the 2030s -- much earlier than the average projection from the global climate models.
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Arctic sea ice is a key factor determining the pace and intensity of future global climate change; moreover, declines in sea ice can have
the amount of Arctic sea ice has
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additional
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including important effects on the pace and intensity of global climate change
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best-fitting
best fitting
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sea ice is diminishing
overall sea ice coverage is declining
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Arctic
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scenarios with
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scenarios
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This analysis indicates
These results indicate
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in
sometime during
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the