Here we focus on the data analysis of the growth of epidemic spreading of Covid 19 in countries where a different policy of containment has been activated. It is known that at the threshold of the pandemic spreading the growth is exponential with a doubling time Td between 1.8 and 2.8 days. However it is not known how different containment policies determine different epidemic growth curves. We have used our skills in the studies of growth processes out of equilibrium in quantum complex oxides and biological systems to quantify the data of the Covid-19 pandemic spread in the three countries in the first 28 days after threshold . We identify a first pre threshold phase, a second threshold phase and a third arrested phase regime . The third phase follow the Ostwald rule where in the course of time one phase transforms into another metastable phase with a similar free energy . Similar arrested growth processes were previously observed in oxygen interstitials diffusion in layered perovskites and in crystallization of proteins. The results provide a quantitative measure of the efficiency of different containment policies which will be very helpful to control the today Covid 19 world wide pandemic spreading .
Here we focus on the data analysis of the growth of epidemic spreading of Covid-19 in countries where different policies of containment have been activated. It is known that the growth of the pandemic spreading at its threshold is exponential but it is not known how to quantify the success of different containment policies . We identify that a successful approach gives an arrested phase regime following the Ostwald growth, where in the course of time one phase transforms into another metastable phase with a similar free energy as observed in oxygen interstitials diffusion in quantum complex matter and in crystallization of proteins. We introduce the s factor which provides a quantitative measure of the efficiency and speed of the adopted containment policy, which is very helpful not only to monitor the Covid-19 pandemic spreading but also for other countries to choose the best containment policy. The results show that the policy based in joint confinement, targeted tests and tracking positive cases is the most rapid pandemic containment policy in fact we have found for China, South Korea, and Italy the values of the success s factor 9, 5, 32 respectively where the lowest s value indicates the best containment policy .
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the growth is exponential with a doubling time Td between 1.8 and 2.8 days. However
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different containment policies determine different epidemic growth curves. We have used our skills in the studies of growth processes out of equilibrium in quantum complex oxides and biological systems
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data of the Covid-19 pandemic spread in the three countries in the first 28 days after threshold
success of different containment policies
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a first pre threshold phase, a second threshold phase and a third
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layered perovskites
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The results provide
We introduce the s factor which provides
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of different containment policies which will be very helpful to control the today Covid 19 world wide pandemic spreading
and speed of the adopted containment policy, which is very helpful not only to monitor the Covid-19 pandemic spreading but also for other countries to choose the best containment policy. The results show that the policy based in joint confinement, targeted tests and tracking positive cases is the most rapid pandemic containment policy in fact we have found for China, South Korea, and Italy the values of the success s factor 9, 5, 32 respectively where the lowest s value indicates the best containment policy