Official counts of COVID-19 deaths have been criticized for potentially including people who did not die of COVID-19 but merely died with COVID-19. I address that critique by fitting a generalized additive model to past weekly provisional counts of all registered deaths in England and Wales. The model provides baseline rates of death registrations expected in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic, and comparing the baselines to recent counts of registered deaths reveals the emergence of excess deaths late in March 2020. I estimate that, among people aged 45+, 610%DIFDELCMD < \pm %%% 405 excess deaths were registered from 21 March through 27 March, 5689 \pm 420 excess deaths from \pm  28 March through 3 April, and 9374 \pm 470 excess deaths from 4-10 April . The ONS\pm  's respective counts of 531,3432, and 6139 COVID-19-associated deaths are appreciably lower, implying that the ONS's counts underestimate rather than overestimate the true death toll. The Department of Health and Social Care's counts of in-hospital COVID-19-associated deaths over the same period are even lower, signalling more severe undercounting . If underreporting rates have held steady, about 41,300 COVID-19 deaths might already have been registered  but not yet publicly reported in full.
Official counts of COVID-19 deaths have been criticized for potentially including people who did not die of COVID-19 but merely died with COVID-19. I address that critique by fitting a generalized additive model to past weekly counts of all registered deaths in England and Wales. The model provides baseline rates of death registrations expected in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic, and comparing the baselines to recent counts of registered deaths exposes the emergence of excess deaths late in March 2020. I estimate that, among adults aged 45+, %DIFDELCMD < \pm %%% about 28,000 excess deaths were registered in the 4 weeks comprising 21 March through 17 April (612 \pm 416 from 21-27 March, 5675\pm 439 from 28 March through 3 April, 9183 \pm 468 from 4-10 April , and 12,712\pm 589 from 11-17 April). Both the Office for National Statistics 's respective count of 18,757 death certificates which mention COVID-19, and the Department of Health and Social Care's count of 15,755 in-hospital COVID-19-associated deaths , are appreciably less, implying that their counting methods have underestimated rather than overestimated the pandemic's true death toll . If underreporting rates have held steady, about 48,700 direct and indirect COVID-19 deaths might have been registered by April's end but not yet publicly reported in full.
D
provisional
R
reveals
exposes
R
people
adults
D
610
R
405
about 28,000
R
from
in the 4 weeks comprising
R
27 March, 5689
17 April (612
R
420 excess deaths
416
A
21-27 March, 5675
A
439 from
R
and 9374
9183
R
470 excess deaths
468
R
. The ONS
, and 12,712
A
589 from 11-17 April). Both the Office for National Statistics
R
counts of 531,3432, and 6139 COVID-19-associated deaths are appreciably lower, implying that the ONS's counts underestimate rather than overestimate the true death toll. The
count of 18,757 death certificates which mention COVID-19, and the
R
counts of
count of 15,755
R
over the same period are even lower, signalling more severe undercounting
, are appreciably less, implying that their counting methods have underestimated rather than overestimated the pandemic's true death toll
R
41,300
48,700 direct and indirect
D
already
A
by April's end