This paper contributes a new machine learning solution for stock movement prediction, which aims to predict whether the price of a stock will be up or down in the near future. The key novelty is that we propose to employ adversarial training to improve the generalization of a recurrent neural network model. The rationality of adversarial training here is that the input features to stock prediction are typically based on stock price, which is essentially a stochastic variable and continuously changed with time by nature. As such, normal training with stationary price-based features (e.g. the closing price) can easily overfit the data, being insufficient to obtain reliable models. To address this problem, we propose to add perturbations to simulate the stochasticity of continuous price variable, and train the model to work well under small yet intentional perturbations. Extensive experiments on two real-world stock data show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art solution with 3.11\% relative improvements on average w.r.t. accuracy, verifying the usefulness of adversarial training for stock prediction task . Codes will be made available upon acceptance .
This paper contributes a new machine learning solution for stock movement prediction, which aims to predict whether the price of a stock will be up or down in the near future. The key novelty is that we propose to employ adversarial training to improve the generalization of a neural network prediction model. The rationality of adversarial training here is that the input features to stock prediction are typically based on stock price, which is essentially a stochastic variable and continuously changed with time by nature. As such, normal training with static price-based features (e.g. the close price) can easily overfit the data, being insufficient to obtain reliable models. To address this problem, we propose to add perturbations to simulate the stochasticity of price variable, and train the model to work well under small yet intentional perturbations. Extensive experiments on two real-world stock data show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art solution with 3.11\% relative improvements on average w.r.t. accuracy, validating the usefulness of adversarial training for stock prediction task .
R
recurrent neural network
neural network prediction
R
stationary
static
R
closing
close
D
continuous
R
verifying
validating
D
. Codes will be made available upon acceptance