In 1983 Hamilton demonstrated the correlation between the price of oil and gross national product for the U.S. economy. A prolific literature followed exploring the potential correlation of oil prices with other important indices like inflation, industrial production, and food prices, using increasingly refined tools. Our work sheds new light on the role of oil prices in shaping the world economy by investigating the metabolic paths of value across trade between 1960 and 2010 , by means of Markov Chain  analysis. We show that the interdependence of countries' economies are strictly (anti)correlated to the price of oil. We observed a remarkably high correlation of 0.85, unmatched by any former study addressing the correlation between oil price and major economic indicators .
 Our work sheds new light on the role of oil prices in shaping the world economy by investigating flows of goods and services through global value chains between 1960 and 2011 , by means of Markov Chain and network analysis. We show that over that time period the international division of labor and trade patterns are tightly linked to the price of oil. We demonstrate that this correlation does not depend on the balance of payments nor on the nominal value of trade or trade agreements; it is instead linked to the way the Global Value Chains (GVCs) shape global trade. Our study suggests that transport played an important structural role in shaping GVCs .
D
In 1983 Hamilton demonstrated the correlation between the price of oil and gross national product for the U.S. economy. A prolific literature followed exploring the potential correlation of oil prices with other important indices like inflation, industrial production, and food prices, using increasingly refined tools.
R
the metabolic paths of value across trade
flows of goods and services through global value chains
R
2010
2011
A
and network
R
the interdependence of countries' economies are strictly (anti)correlated
over that time period the international division of labor and trade patterns are tightly linked
R
observed a remarkably high correlation of 0.85, unmatched by any former study addressing the correlation between oil price and major economic indicators
demonstrate that this correlation does not depend on the balance of payments nor on the nominal value of trade or trade agreements; it is instead linked to the way the Global Value Chains (GVCs) shape global trade. Our study suggests that transport played an important structural role in shaping GVCs