Objective: To provide two extreme projections of day to day number of in-patients, ICU-patients and cumulative number of deaths caused by the COVID-19 virus in Denmark. The initial projection reflects the case where the current political strategy is continued indefinitely, while the alternative projection reflects a scenario of the unlikely event that government will switch back to the initial strategy of home isolation of confirmed cases . Method: We used the Kermack and McKendrick model with varying basic reproduction number to estimate number infected and age stratified percentages to estimate number of in-patients, ICU-patients and cumulative number of deaths. Chances in basic reproduction number was estimated based on current in-patient numbers. Results: The basic reproductive number in the time period of February 27th to Marts 14th was found to be 2.68 , however, this number was reduced to 0.91 after Marts 14th. With the current political strategy, number of excessive in-patient beds resulting from COVID-19 infections will peak at 383 on Marts 29th 2020. At the same time, number of excessive ICU beds resulting from COVID-19 infections will peak at 123. The total number of deaths caused by COVID-19 in the initial projection throughout the year 2020 will be 67.
Objective: To conduct an early estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number (BRN) induced by government interference, and to project resulting day to day number of in-patients, ICU-patients and cumulative number of deaths in a Danish setting . Method: We used the Kermack and McKendrick model with varying basic reproduction number to estimate number infected and age stratified percentages to estimate number of in-patients, ICU-patients and cumulative number of deaths. Changes in basic reproduction number was estimated based on current in-patient numbers. Results: The basic reproductive number in the time period of February 27th to March 18th was found to be 2.65 , however, this number was reduced to 1.99 after March 18th. Keywords: COVID-19 , basic reproduction number, Danish population
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provide two extreme projections of
conduct an early estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number (BRN) induced by government interference, and to project resulting
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caused by the COVID-19 virus in Denmark. The initial projection reflects the case where the current political strategy is continued indefinitely, while the alternative projection reflects a scenario of the unlikely event that government will switch back to the initial strategy of home isolation of confirmed cases
in a Danish setting
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Chances
Changes
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Marts 14th
March 18th
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2.68
2.65
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0.91 after Marts 14th. With the current political strategy, number of excessive in-patient beds resulting from
1.99 after March 18th. Keywords:
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infections will peak at 383 on Marts 29th 2020. At the same time, number of excessive ICU beds resulting from COVID-19 infections will peak at 123. The total number of deaths caused by COVID-19 in the initial projection throughout the year 2020 will be 67.
, basic reproduction number, Danish population