The global spread of 2019-nCoV, a new virus belonging to the coronavirus family, forced national and local governments to apply different sets of measures aimed at containing the outbreak. Los Angeles has been one of the first cities in the United States to declare the state of emergency on March 4th, progressively issuing stronger policies involving (among the others) social distancing, the prohibition of crowded private and public gatherings and closure of leisure premises. These interventions highly disrupt and modify daily activities and habits, urban mobility and micro-level interactions between citizens. One of the many social phenomena that could be influenced by such measures is crime. Exploiting public data on crime in Los Angeles, and relying on routine activity and pattern theories of crime, this work investigates whether and how new coronavirus containment policies have an impact on crime trends in a metropolis  . The article specifically focuses on eight urban crime categories, daily monitored from January 1st 2017 to March 16th 2020. The analyses will be updated bi-weekly to th  dynamically assess the short- and medium-term effects of these interventions to shed light on how crime adapts to such structural modification of the environment. Finally , policy implications are also discussed.
The global spread of 2019-nCoV, a new virus belonging to the coronavirus family, forced national and local governments to apply different sets of measures aimed at containing its outbreak. Los Angeles has been one of the first cities in the United States to declare the state of emergency on March 4th, progressively issuing stronger policies involving--among the others--social distancing, the prohibition of crowded private and public gatherings and closure of leisure premises. These interventions highly disrupt and modify daily activities and habits, urban mobility and micro-level interactions between citizens. One of the many social phenomena that could be influenced by such measures is crime. Exploiting public data on crime in Los Angeles, and relying on routine activity and pattern theories of crime, this work investigates whether and how new coronavirus containment policies have an impact on crime trends in a metropolis using Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) models . The article specifically focuses on nine urban crime categories, daily monitored from January 1st 2017 to March 28th 2020. The analyses have been updated bi-weekly (up to March 16 and up to March 28th 2020) to dynamically assess the short-term effects of mild and hard interventions to shed light on how crime adapts to such structural modification of the environment. The results show that overall crime in Las Angeles is significantly decreasing, as well as robbery, shoplifting, theft and battery. No significant effect has been found for stolen vehicle, burglary, assault with deadly weapon, intimate partner violence and homicide. In the last section of this article , policy implications are also discussed.
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the
its
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involving (among the others) social
involving--among the others--social
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using Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) models
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eight
nine
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16th
28th
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will be
have been
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to
(up to March 16
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and up to March 28
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2020) to
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short- and medium-term effects of these
short-term effects of mild and hard
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Finally
The results show that overall crime in Las Angeles is significantly decreasing, as well as robbery, shoplifting, theft and battery. No significant effect has been found for stolen vehicle, burglary, assault with deadly weapon, intimate partner violence and homicide. In the last section of this article