In many areas of society we rely on competition to achieve abstract societal goals. Ideally, this motivates effort and efficiently allocates resources. However, competition generally depends on imperfect proxy measures in order to assess performance. Examples include: in science, the publication count of an author; in healthcare, the number of patients treated; or in business, the profit achieved. Importantly, some practices may optimize proxy performancebut not the actual societal goal. In such cases, individual decisions and cultural practices may shift away from the societal goal and toward the proxy. To paraphrase what has become known as Goodhart 's or Campbell's law: Any proxy measure in a competitive societal system becomes a target for the competing individuals (or groups), promoting corruption of the measure . However,  we lack a coherent theory of such a process. Here , we construct an agent based model to explore and formalize the basic components and dynamics of proxy based competition. The model combines an effort incentivization mechanism from economic multitasking theoryand contest theorywith a slower process of cultural evolution . We find, that an individual level intrinsic motivation towards the societal goal can bound an evolution towards corrupt practices . Overall, the model provides the first sketch of a general theory of proxy based competition in complex societal systems .
When society maintains a competitive system to promote an abstract goal, competition by necessity relies on imperfect proxy measures . For instance profit is used to measure value to consumers, patient volumes to measure hospital performance, or the Journal Impact Factor to measure scientific value. Here we note thatany proxy measure in a competitive societal system becomes a target for the competitors, promoting corruption of the measure, suggesting a general applicability of what is best known as Campbell 's or Goodhart's Law. Indeed, prominent voices have argued that the scientific reproducibility crisis or inaction to the threat of global warming represent instances of such competition induced corruption. Moreover, competing individuals often report that competitive pressures limit their ability to act according to the societal goal, suggesting lock-in . However, despite the profound implications, we lack a coherent theory of such a process. Here we propose such a theory, formalized as an agent based model , integrating insights from complex systems theory, contest theory, behavioral economics and cultural evolution theory. The model reproduces empirically observed patterns at multiple levels. It further suggests that any system is likely to converge towards an equilibrium level of corruption determined by i) the information captured in the proxy and ii) the strength of an intrinsic incentive towards the societal goal . Overall, the theory offers mechanistic insight to subjects as diverse as the scientific reproducibility crisis and the threat of global warming .
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In many areas of society we rely on competition to achieve abstract societal goals. Ideally, this motivates effort and efficiently allocates resources. However, competition generally depends
When society maintains a competitive system to promote an abstract goal, competition by necessity relies
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in order to assess performance. Examples include: in science, the publication count of an author; in healthcare, the number of patients treated; or in business, the profit achieved. Importantly, some practices may optimize proxy performancebut not the actual societal goal. In such cases, individual decisions and cultural practices may shift away from the societal goal and toward the proxy. To paraphrase what has become known as Goodhart
. For instance profit is used to measure value to consumers, patient volumes to measure hospital performance, or the Journal Impact Factor to measure scientific value. Here we note that
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any proxy measure in a competitive societal system becomes a target for the competitors, promoting corruption of the measure
A
, suggesting a general applicability of what is best known as Campbell
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Campbell's law: Any proxy measure in a competitive societal system becomes a target for the competing individuals (or groups), promoting corruption of the measure
Goodhart's Law. Indeed, prominent voices have argued that the scientific reproducibility crisis or inaction to the threat of global warming represent instances of such competition induced corruption. Moreover, competing individuals often report that competitive pressures limit their ability to act according to the societal goal, suggesting lock-in
A
despite the profound implications,
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, we construct
we propose such a theory, formalized as
R
to explore and formalize the basic components and dynamics of proxy based competition. The model combines an effort incentivization mechanism from economic multitasking theoryand contest theorywith a slower process of cultural evolution . We find, that an individual level intrinsic motivation
, integrating insights from complex systems theory, contest theory, behavioral economics and cultural evolution theory. The model reproduces empirically observed patterns at multiple levels. It further suggests that any system is likely to converge towards an equilibrium level of corruption determined by i) the information captured in the proxy and ii) the strength of an intrinsic incentive
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can bound an evolution towards corrupt practices
R
model provides the first sketch of a general theory of proxy based competition in complex societal systems
theory offers mechanistic insight to subjects as diverse as the scientific reproducibility crisis and the threat of global warming