The outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has caused unprecedented disruptions to financial and economic markets around the globe, leading to one of the fastest U.S. stock market declines in history. However, in the past we have seen markets recover just as we will see the current markets recover again, so on this basis the recover of the markets  will reach a minimum before increasing sometimes in the not-too-distant future. Here we present two forecast models of the S&P500 based on COVID-19 projections of deaths released on 02/04/2020 by the University of Washington and the 2-months consideration since the first confirmed case occured in USA. The decline and recovery in the index is estimated for the following three months. The forecast is a projection of a prediction with uncertainties described by q-gaussian distributions. Our forecast was made on the premise that: (a) The prediction is based on deterministic trend of a data set since the viral spread of COVID-19 started , and (b) The uncertainties are fitted from patterns of the S\& P500 for the last 24 years.
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has caused unprecedented disruptions to financial and economic markets around the globe, leading to one of the fastest U.S. stock market declines in history. However, in the past we have seen the market recover and we can expect the market to recover again, and on this basis we assume the Standard and Poor's 500 (S P500) index will reach a minimum before rising again in the not-too-distant future. Here we present four forecast models of the S&P500 based on COVID-19 projections of deaths released on 02/04/2020 by the University of Washington and the 2-months consideration since the first confirmed case occured in USA. The decline and recovery in the index is estimated for the following three months. The forecast is a projection of a prediction with fluctuations described by q-gaussian distributions. Our forecast was made on the premise that: (a) The prediction is based on a deterministic trend that follows the data available since the initial outbreak of COVID-19 , and (b) fluctuations derived from the S P500 over the last 24 years.
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markets recover just as we will see the current markets
the market recover and we can expect the market to
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the recover of the markets
we assume the Standard and Poor's 500 (S
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P500) index
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increasing sometimes
rising again
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uncertainties
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deterministic trend of a data set since the viral spread
a deterministic trend that follows the data available since the initial outbreak
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started
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The uncertainties are fitted from patterns of the S\&
fluctuations derived from the S
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