I study identification, estimation and inference for spillover effects in experiments where units' outcomes may depend on the treatment assignments of other units within a group. I show that the commonly-used linear-in-means  regression identifies a weighted sum of spillover effects with some negative weights, and characterize the estimand that is recovered by a simple difference in means in the presence of spillovers. My results reveal the potential pitfalls of failing to flexibly account for spillover effects in policy evaluation. I then propose nonparametric estimators  that overcome these issues and are consistent and asymptotically normal under a precise relationship between the number of parameters of interest, the total sample size and the treatment assignment mechanism. I show that these results can be used to rank assignment mechanisms for experimental design. These findings are illustrated using data from a conditional cash transfer program and with simulations  .
I study identification, estimation and inference for spillover effects in experiments where units' outcomes may depend on the treatment assignments of other units within a group. I show that the commonly-used linear-in-means (LIM) regression identifies a weighted sum of spillover effects with some negative weights, and that the difference in means between treated and controls identifies a combination of direct and spillover effects entering with different signs. I propose nonparametric estimators for average direct and spillover effects that overcome these issues and are consistent and asymptotically normal under a precise relationship between the number of parameters of interest, the total sample size and the treatment assignment mechanism. These findings are illustrated using data from a conditional cash transfer program and with simulations . The empirical results reveal the potential pitfalls of failing to flexibly account for spillover effects in policy evaluation: the estimated difference in means and the LIM coefficients are all close to zero and statistically insignificant, whereas the nonparametric estimators I propose reveal large, nonlinear and significant spillover effects .
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(LIM)
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characterize the estimand that is recovered by a simple
that the
R
in the presence of spillovers. My results reveal the potential pitfalls of failing to flexibly account for spillover effects in policy evaluation. I then
between treated and controls identifies a combination of direct and spillover effects entering with different signs. I
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for average direct and spillover effects
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I show that these results can be used to rank assignment mechanisms for experimental design.
A
. The empirical results reveal the potential pitfalls of failing to flexibly account for spillover effects in policy evaluation: the estimated difference in means and the LIM coefficients are all close to zero and statistically insignificant, whereas the nonparametric estimators I propose reveal large, nonlinear and significant spillover effects