Cross-impact analysis is a methodology developed by Theodore Gordon and Olaf Helmer in 1966 to help determine how relationships between events would impact resulting events and reduce uncertainty in the future.Gordon, Theodore Jay, Cross Impact Method, United Nations University Millennium Project, 1994, p 1 The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) became interested in the methodology in the late 1960s and early 1970s as an analytic technique for predicting how different factors and variables would impact future decisions.Heuer, Richards J., Randolph H. Pherson, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, CQ Press, 2011, p 107 In the mid-1970s, futurists began to use the methodology in larger numbers as a means to predict the probability of specific events and determine how related events impacted one another.Gordon, Theodore Jay, Cross Impact Method, pp 1-2 By 2006, Cross Impact Analysis matured into a number of related methodologies with uses for businesses and communities as well as futurists and intelligence analysts.For Learn – Cross Impact Analysis, For Learn, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, 2006 The basic principles of Cross-impact analysis date back to the late 1960s, but the original processes were relatively simple and were based on a game design.Gordon, Theodore Jay, Cross Impact Method, p 1 Eventually, advanced techniques, methodologies, and programs were developed to apply the principles of cross-impact analysis, and the basic method is now applied in futures think tanks, business settings, and the intelligence community. Advancements in simulation models continued into the 1980s. In 1980, Selwyn Enzer at the University of California incorporated Cross Impact Analysis into a simulation method known as Interax, The Delphi technique was combined with Cross Impact Analysis in 1984, and researchers at Texas A&M University used Cross Impact in a process called "EZ-IMPACT" that was based on Kane's algorithm from KSIM. After simulation models and methods were developed for cross-impact analysis, analysts began to develop the range of topics that it could address. Cross Impact Analysis was being used to solve real world issues as John Stover applied the methodology to simulate the economy of Uruguay. However, real world application of the methodology advanced rapidly in the 1990s. By 1993, SMIC was used for subjects as diverse as the nuclear industry, world geopolitical evolution, and corporate activities and jobs to 2000.Gordon, Theodore Jay, Cross Impact Method, pp 2-3 In 1999, Robert Blanning and Bruce Reinig from the Owen Graduate School of Management at Vanderbilt University utilized a modified form of cross-impact analysis to determine futures for Hong Kong and the Hong Kong economy as the United Kingdom relinquished control to the People's Republic of China.Blanning, Robert and Bruce Reinig, Cross-impact analysis using group decision support systems: an application to the future of Hong Kong, Elsevier Science Ltd., 1999. Cross-impact analysis seems to have two schools of thought and ways of approach. The first is the futures forecasting style that originally developed the methodology. The second is a sub-school of intelligence analysts which modified the original methodology to better address their needs. Nevertheless, Cross Impact Analysis is based upon the premise that events and activities do not happen in a vacuum and other events and the surrounding environment can significantly influence the probability of certain events to occur.Gordon, Theodore Jay, Cross Impact Method, p 4 Cross-impact analysis attempts to connect relationships between events and variables. These relationships are then categorized as positive or negative  to each other, and are used to determine which events or scenarios are most probable or likely to occur within a given time frame.For Learn - Cross Impact Analysis, For Learn, Joint Research Center, European Commission The intelligence community has created a more flexible and variable system than the original methodology. Event relationships and impacts are still similar to the method incorporated by futurists.Clark, Robert M., Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach, CQ Press, Third Edition, 2010. p 202-203 However, intelligence analysts have expanded the parameters of Cross Impact Analysis beyond comparing events to include variables like environment, political circumstances, and popular opinion to influence probabilities of certain events.Heuer, Richards J., Randolph H. Pherson, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, pp 104-105 In addition, intelligence analysts can choose to use more flexible measurements like "enhancing," "inhibiting," or "unrelated" instead of the rigid mathematics of the tradition methodology to include non-event variables.Heuer, Richards J., Randolph H. Pherson, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, p 105 A major part of the intelligence analysis style of cross-impact analysis is the cross-impact matrix. The matrix is a visualization of the cross-impact analysis and allows for modification. It also allows an analyst to find both the most influential variables and those variables that are impacted by the most other variables, not just direct, one-to-one relationships.Heuer, Richards J., Randolph H. Pherson, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, p 106 While several traditional Cross Impact Analysis methods suggest the creation of a matrix, the priority still relies in probabilities, one-to-one relationships, and the order of events.Gordon, Theodore Jay, Cross Impact Method, pp 5-9
Cross-impact analysis is a methodology developed by Theodore Gordon and Olaf Helmer in 1966 to help determine how relationships between events would impact resulting events and reduce uncertainty in the future.Gordon, Theodore Jay, Cross Impact Method, United Nations University Millennium Project, 1994, p 1 The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) became interested in the methodology in the late 1960s and early 1970s as an analytic technique for predicting how different factors and variables would impact future decisions.Heuer, Richards J., Randolph H. Pherson, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, CQ Press, 2011, p 107 In the mid-1970s, futurists began to use the methodology in larger numbers as a means to predict the probability of specific events and determine how related events impacted one another.Gordon, Theodore Jay, Cross Impact Method, pp 1-2 By 2006, cross-impact analysis matured into a number of related methodologies with uses for businesses and communities as well as futurists and intelligence analysts.For Learn – Cross Impact Analysis, For Learn, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, 2006 The basic principles of cross-impact analysis date back to the late 1960s, but the original processes were relatively simple and were based on a game design.Gordon, Theodore Jay, Cross Impact Method, p 1 Eventually, advanced techniques, methodologies, and programs were developed to apply the principles of cross-impact analysis, and the basic method is now applied in futures think tanks, business settings, and the intelligence community. Advancements in simulation models continued into the 1980s. In 1980, Selwyn Enzer at the University of California incorporated cross-impact analysis into a simulation method known as Interax, The Delphi technique was combined with Cross Impact Analysis in 1984, and researchers at Texas A&M University used Cross Impact in a process called "EZ-IMPACT" that was based on Kane's algorithm from KSIM. After simulation models and methods were developed for cross-impact analysis, analysts began to develop the range of topics that it could address. Cross-impact analysis was being used to solve real world issues as John Stover applied the methodology to simulate the economy of Uruguay. However, real world application of the methodology advanced rapidly in the 1990s. By 1993, SMIC was used for subjects as diverse as the nuclear industry, world geopolitical evolution, and corporate activities and jobs to 2000.Gordon, Theodore Jay, Cross Impact Method, pp 2-3 In 1999, Robert Blanning and Bruce Reinig from the Owen Graduate School of Management at Vanderbilt University utilized a modified form of cross-impact analysis to determine futures for Hong Kong and the Hong Kong economy as the United Kingdom relinquished control to the People's Republic of China.Blanning, Robert and Bruce Reinig, Cross-impact analysis using group decision support systems: an application to the future of Hong Kong, Elsevier Science Ltd., 1999. Cross-impact analysis has two schools of thought and ways of approach. The first is the futures forecasting style that originally developed the methodology. The second is a sub-school of intelligence analysts which modified the original methodology to better address their needs. Nevertheless, cross-impact analysis is based upon the premise that events and activities do not happen in a vacuum and other events and the surrounding environment can significantly influence the probability of certain events to occur.Gordon, Theodore Jay, Cross Impact Method, p 4 Cross-impact analysis attempts to connect relationships between events and variables. These relationships are then categorized as positive or negative relative to each other, and are used to determine which events or scenarios are most probable or likely to occur within a given time frame.For Learn - Cross Impact Analysis, For Learn, Joint Research Center, European Commission The intelligence community has created a more flexible and variable system than the original methodology. Event relationships and impacts are still similar to the method incorporated by futurists.Clark, Robert M., Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach, CQ Press, Third Edition, 2010. p 202-203 However, intelligence analysts have expanded the parameters of cross-impact analysis beyond comparing events to include variables like environment, political circumstances, and popular opinion to influence probabilities of certain events.Heuer, Richards J., Randolph H. Pherson, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, pp 104-105 In addition, intelligence analysts can choose to use more flexible measurements like "enhancing," "inhibiting," or "unrelated" instead of the rigid mathematics of the tradition methodology to include non-event variables.Heuer, Richards J., Randolph H. Pherson, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, p 105 A major part of the intelligence analysis style of cross-impact analysis is the cross-impact matrix. The matrix is a visualization of the cross-impact analysis and allows for modification. It also allows an analyst to find both the most influential variables and those variables that are impacted by the most other variables, not just direct, one-to-one relationships.Heuer, Richards J., Randolph H. Pherson, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, p 106 While several traditional cross-impact analysis methods suggest the creation of a matrix, the priority still relies in probabilities, one-to-one relationships, and the order of events.Gordon, Theodore Jay, Cross Impact Method, pp 5-9
R
Cross Impact Analysis
cross-impact analysis
R
Cross-impact
cross-impact
R
Cross Impact Analysis
cross-impact analysis
R
Cross Impact Analysis
Cross-impact analysis
R
seems to have
has
R
Cross Impact Analysis
cross-impact analysis
A
relative
R
Cross Impact Analysis
cross-impact analysis
R
Cross Impact Analysis
cross-impact analysis