Viral transmission pathways have profound implications for public safety; thus it is imperative to establish an accurate and complete understanding of viable infectious avenues. Whether SARS-CoV-2 is airborn is currently uncertain. While mounting evidence suggests it could be transmitted via the air in confined spaces, the airborn transmission mode has not yet been demonstrated. Here we show that the quantitative analysis of several reported superspreading events points towards aerosol mediated transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Aerosolized virus emitted by an infected person in an enclosed space will accumulate until virion emission and virion destabilization are balanced, resulting in a steady-state concentration C_{\infty found to trace out a single value of the calculated virion exposure , suggesting a universal minimum infective dose (MID) via aerosol . The MID implied by our analysis is comparable to the measured MIDs for influenza A (H2N2), the virus responsible for the 1957-1958 asian flu pandemic. Our model suggests that the likelihood for aerosol-mediated transmission reduces significantly when there is filtration at a rate exceeding the destabilization rate of aerosolized SARS-CoV-2  .
Viral transmission pathways have profound implications for public safety; it is thus imperative to establish a complete understanding of viable infectious avenues. Mounting evidence suggests SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted via the air ; however, this has not yet been demonstrated. Here we quantitatively analyze virion accumulation by accounting for aerosolized virion emission and destabilization. Reported superspreading events analyzed within this framework point towards aerosol mediated transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Virion exposure calculated for these events is found to trace out a single value , suggesting a universal minimum infective dose (MID) via aerosol that is comparable to the MIDs measured for other respiratory viruses; thus, the consistent infectious exposure levels and their commensurability to known aerosol-MIDs establishes the plausibility of aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Using filtration at a rate exceeding the destabilization rate of aerosolized SARS-CoV-2 can reduce exposure below this infective dose .
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measured MIDs for influenza A (H2N2), the virus responsible for the 1957-1958 asian flu pandemic. Our model suggests that the likelihood for aerosol-mediated transmission reduces significantly when there is
MIDs measured for other respiratory viruses; thus, the consistent infectious exposure levels and their commensurability to known aerosol-MIDs establishes the plausibility of aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Using
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can reduce exposure below this infective dose