To evaluate if the effort to contain the epidemic spreading of the new Coronavirus disease 2019 is really working, we carried out an analysis of the time evolution of the infection in different Countries, by considering two well-known macroscopic growth laws, the Gompertz law  and the logistic law. The proposed data analysis permits an evaluation of the maximum number of infected individuals. The daily data must be compared with the obtained fits  to verify if the spreading is under control. From our analysis it appears that the spreading is reaching saturation in China and Singapore , due to the strong containment policy of the national governments.  For South Korea and Italy, instead, the data of the first week of March on the new infections , will be crucial to understand if the saturation will be reached for lower or higher numbers of infected individuals . This will show whether a strong containment policy is worth keeping .
To evaluate the effectiveness of the containments on the epidemic spreading of the new Coronavirus disease 2019 , we carry on an analysis of the time evolution of the infection in different Countries, by considering well-known macroscopic growth laws, the Gompertz law , and the logistic law. We also propose here a generalization of Gompertz law. Our data analysis permits an evaluation of the maximum number of infected individuals. The daily data must be compared with the obtained fits , to verify if the spreading is under control. From our analysis it appears that the spreading is reaching saturation in China , due to the strong containment policy of the national governments. In Singapore a large growth rate, recently observed, suggests the start of a new strong spreading. For South Korea and Italy, instead, the next data on new infections will be crucial to understand if the saturation will be reached for lower or higher numbers of infected individuals .
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if the effort to contain the
the effectiveness of the containments on the
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is really working, we carried out
, we carry on
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two
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,
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The proposed
We also propose here a generalization of Gompertz law. Our
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,
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and Singapore
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In Singapore a large growth rate, recently observed, suggests the start of a new strong spreading.
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data of the first week of March on the new infections ,
next data on new infections
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. This will show whether a strong containment policy is worth keeping