COMMERCIAL SPACE NEWS/SPACE TECHNOLOGY INVESTOR NUMBER 22     This is number twenty-two in an irregular series on commercial  space activities.  The commentaries included are my thoughts on  these developments.       Sigh... as usual, I've gotten behind in getting this column  written.  I can only plead the exigency of the current dynamics in  the space biz.  This column is put together at lunch hour and after  the house quiets down at night, so data can quickly build up if  there's a lot of other stuff going on.  I've complied a lot of  information and happenings since the last column, so I'm going to  have to work to keep this one down to a readable length.  Have fun!   CONTENTS: 1- US COMMERCIAL SPACE SALES FLATTEN IN 1993 2- DELTA WINS TWO KEY LAUNCH CONTRACTS 3- COMMERCIAL REMOTE SENSING VENTURE GETS DOC "GO-AHEAD" 4- INVESTMENT FIRM CALLS GD'S SPACE BIZ "STILL A GOOD INVESTMENT"  5- ARIANE PREDICTS DIP IN LAUNCH DEMAND 6- NTSB INVESTIGATES PEGASUS LAUNCH OVER ABORTED ABORT 7- ANOTHER PEGASUS COMPETITOR IS ANNOUNCED 8- GEORGIA LAUNCH SITE DROPPED FROM PLANNING 9- SPAIN'S CAPRICORNIA LAUNCHER STILL PROCEEDING 10- PACASTRO SIGNS LAUNCH RESERVATION WITH SWEDISH SPACE CORP 11- CHINA AND TAIWAN JOINT SATELLITE VENTURE REPORTED 12- SOUTH KOREA ANNOUNCES NATIONAL MOVE INTO SPACE TECHNOLOGIES 13- SPACE TECHNOLOGY INDEXES THROUGH MARCH FINAL NOTES    ARTICLES -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1- US COMMERCIAL SPACE SALES FLATTEN IN 1993    The US Department of Commerce projects US commercial space sales  will remain flat in 1993, with current data showing only a 2 percent  growth over 1992.  As published in "US Industrial Outlook 1993"  (which was released in January), revenues from the 1993 US space  business are currently projected to be about $4,890 M.     In contrast to previous years when US commercial space sales had  shown double digits growth rates, this year's projected results are  driven by the US satellite manufacturing industry, where sales are  projected to drop from 12 satellites worth $1,300 M in 1992 to 7  satellites worth $ 670 M in 1993.  The US Industrial Outlook also  projects U.S. commercial launchers faces flat demand in coming year,  and while predicting that 1993 revenues will increase 10 percent to  $450 M, future sales will be "adversely affected by the downward  revision in Department of Defense launch plans."                               Offsetting flat launch revenues and satellite deliveries,  revenues for fixed and mobile satellite services are projected to  increase to $1,900 M, primarily driven by increased revenues from  broadcast and cable TV networks.  Similarly, remote sensing products  and sales are projected to increase to $250 M in 1993 (up 15%).    US COMMERCIAL SPACE REVENUES     1989  1990   1991 1992(r) 1993(e)  Commercial satellites             900 1,000  1,100  1,300     670  Satellite services                750   800  1,200  1,500   1,900    Fixed                          (700) (735)(1,115)(1,275) (1,520)    Mobile                          (50) ( 65)(   85)(  225) (  380)  Satellite ground equip            790   860  1,350  1,400   1,560    Mobile equipment                (40)  (85)  (280)  (352)    ???  Commercial launches               150   570    380    450     450  Remote sensing data and services  125   155    190    215     250  Private microgravity research lab  --    --     --     --      60                                  ===== =====  ======  =====   =====    TOTAL ANNUAL REVENUES         2,715 3,385   4,220  4,815   4,890         (r) = revised data for 1992   (e) = estimated data for 1993    [Commentary: This is the first look at how the US commercial  space industry is expected to do in 1993.  In general, not a bad  report -- with most of the bad news concentrated in the satellite  manufacturing area.  There, changes of only a few satellites worth  $100 M or so apiece can substantially influence the annual  projection.  If we look forward over several years, this market  sector should retain strong sales as US firms have been very  successful in regaining international market share in the satellite  business.     Furthermore, sales of satellite ground equipment should go up in  the next revision of this data, expected to be released about mid- year.  Data on mobile satellite ground equipment sales (including  such items as GPS receivers and portable satellite terminals)  appears to be missing from the January data set.  DoC usually  publishes a listing of  "Space Business Indicators" in mid-year, and  the next revision of commercial space revenues should be released  then.  I expect the revised revenues should easily top $5,000 M, if  the mobile satellite ground equipment are added back into the  numbers, and the year should show about a 10% overall market growth.     Looking beyond this year's data, future markets look quite  promising.  The DoC projects satellite service revenues could top  $3,000 M by 1995 if new mobile satellite services and direct  broadcasting are implemented as planned, and that mobile satellite  station sales are expected to continue to growth at 15-20 % per year  through the mid 1990's.  My numbers are somewhat more pessimistic  for near-term market growth, but I agree the trend should be for  substantial growth in US commercial space sales over at least the  next 5-10 years.  (My pessimism is due to more conservative  assumptions on market capture and growth in LEO communications and  satellite direct broadcasting services.  I don't believe all of the  current players in the yet-to-be-born LEO communications satellite  market and in the yet-to-be-proven direct broadcasting market will  be financial successes, nor that sales growth will be as explosive  as currently projected.)     It should also be noted this year's DoC data is the first  release to show revenues from privately funded microgravity research  facilities.  The $60 M shown in the Janurary data is primarily for  the Spacehab module, planned for launch in April on the Space  Shuttle, but also hidden in these numbers are the projected first  sales from the COMET orbital launch and recovery experiment module.]   2- DELTA WINS TWO KEY LAUNCH CONTRACTS    McDonnell Douglas Corporation, which builds and markets the Delta  launch vehicle has won two important launch contracts.  Motorola  Inc. announced in mid February that it had selected the Delta to  launch most of the satellites in the 66-satellite Iridium LEO  communications constellation, and in mid April, McDonnell Douglas  was awarded the USAF Medium Launch Vehicle III contract.     The launch services contract with Motorola for the Iridium  constellation launch is for at launch of least 45 Iridium  satellites.  Another 21 satellites have been contracted to be  launched by Khrunichev Enterprise in Russian on 3 Proton vehicle  launches.  These 45 satellites planned for the Delta will be  launched 5 at a time,  providing for at least 9 launches.   Additional satellites in the Iridium constellation, such as a  planned on-orbit spares, may also be launched on Delta.  Although  details of the launch services contract were reported to be  negotiation, and not yet final.     The USAF MLV contract also went to MDC, bidding a variant of  their Delta II launcher.  This contract is only initially worth $7.5  million, but establishes a set of launch options for up to 36  launches, encompassing launches from 1996 through 2002.  These  launches will deploy the next generation of the USAF's Global  Positioning System Block IIR navigation satellites, plus other  programs.  First option for to meet the USAF launch options is  expected to be exercised this year, after which the USAF is expected  to request launches of up to 6 Deltas per year for at least 6 years.   Under this contract the USAF can also request "launch on demand"  services from MDC for the 1996-2002 time period, with a launch to  occur within 40 days of the request.      [Commentary:  If these two contracts are fulfilled, they should  provide an excellent business base for MDC's Delta launch program  through the turn of the century.  Combined, these two contracts have  a potential for about 45 launches, worth about $2,200 M to MDC, and  sustaining a core business base of $300-400 M/year.  Other contracts  for international and commercial payloads, as well as for NASA  Medium ELV-class payloads, will add to this business base -- keeping  MDC as a viable commerical launch company.      However, it should be noted there are risk elements in these  contracts.  Motorola's Iridium LEO communications constellation has  not yet received a US Federal Communications Commission license for  operation in the U.S., nor has Motorola lined up all the financing  and financial partners for the Iridium venture.  Without these  approvals or financial backing there will be no Iridium launches.   But, hopefully, these uncertainties will be settled this year.     Similarly, the USAF MLV III program has been the target of  several Congressional actions which have slowed the production of  the GPS Block IIR satellites and deleted the funding for the MLV III  program in favor of the USAF NLS/"Spacelifter" program.  At this  time, while it appears the MLV III contract will be executed, future  funding for the MLV III and other USAF commercial launch contracts  is being reconsidered as part of national space launch strategy  reviews.  Some opinions expressed from within the Administration and  Congress propose cancellation of all "ELV upgrade" programs  (including the MLV programs) in favor of the proposed "Spacelifter"  program.  Such opinions may have some weight in this year's budget  deliberations, particularly as DoD funds will be more difficult to  find in the shrinking US Defense budget.]    3- COMMERCIAL REMOTE SENSING VENTURE GETS DOC "GO-AHEAD"    The first commercial license to operate a remote sensing  satellite was approved in early February by the US Department of  Commerce's Office of Space Commerce.  A license was granted to  WorldView Imaging Corporation of Oakland, California to build and  operate a pair of LEO imaging satellites to provide multi-spectral  images of the Earth.     [Commentary:  There has been little data released on this venture  by WorldView and the DoC, other than the announcement of the  operating and construction license.  This was reported to be at the  request of WorldView.  Most industry speculation identifies this new  venture as a "Star Wars" spinoff, using SDI-type technology to  provide digital Earth sensing data, and heavily integrated into  digital GIS databases for remote sensing/GIS users.  Most probable  customers for this service include exploration geologists,  agricultural planners, and urban planners.      It is noteworthy this is the first commercial venture under the  1992 Land Remote Sensing Policy Act.  The Act, as passed last  November, provides that remote sensing data gathered from private remote  sensing craft may be sold to users at differing prices.  Prior to  this act, remote sensing data from all satellites had to be sold to  all users at the same prices, and private remote sensing ventures  would have had to sell at the government-set Landsat data prices.     There are rumors of several other potential commercial remote  sensing ventures working their way through the system at different  stages of development.  I think the large Landsat and SPOT satellite  systems will provide the majority of the satellite remote sensing  data market for the next decade or so.  In contrast to these large,  government-sponsored remote sensing systems, smaller market ventures  such as WorldView and others can exploit market niches and use  innovative technology, and I believe, can find profitability on the  margin.  I predict there may be some very interesting ventures  appearing in the next year or so.]                    4- INVESTMENT FIRM CALLS GD'S SPACE BIZ "STILL A GOOD INVESTMENT"     Wall Street investment house Morgan Stanley thinks General  Dynamic's Space Systems Division could still be a moneymaker,  despite having failed in the last 3 Atlas launches.  In a recent  analyst's report Morgan Stanley said "We are more than ever  convinced that if the company can return the Atlas to its historical  95%-plus success rate, this will become a highly profitable, cash- generating unit."  Based upon discussions with GD's corporate  management, Morgan Stanley projects that if the Atlas problems are  cleared up the unit could see $70 M in earnings per year by 1995 and  $100 M per year by 2000.  This is based upon GD's projection of  capturing about 10 Atlas launches per year on the world market.     [Commentary:  Three failures in a row of their launch system has  hurt General Dynamic's Space Systems Division.  Since GD has  restructured to only keep a very few profitable core businesses,  many market pundits have been speculating GD's space business might  be next to be sold.  The Morgan Stanley report indicates GD's Space  Systems Division has some potential as a moneymaker, despite current  problems -- if they can get their act together.  Sales are projected  to be about $560 M in 1993, which will probably generate a loss of  about $25 M.  If GD can capture their projected share of the space  launch market, and if they have managed to clean up the reliability  of their Atlas launchers, then they could generate healthy profits  from those sales.  But until they demonstrate the Atlas Centaur  program is back on track, this division will continue to show  substantial losses.     In response to the sell-off rumors, in my opinion, this operation  is not a really good candidate for takeover and quick profitability.   To do such a takeover, the current set corporate and divisional  management would be replaced with another set from outside the firm.   In GD SSD's case, to get the division back on track, the management  team will have to concentrate hard on the technical problems with  the Atlas Centaur, as well as in selling Atlas services.  This would  indicate only another firm with experience in rocket launch  operations could find such talent in-house, and be able to convince  customers to buy their launch services.  Optimally, the firm would  have substantial liquid rocket experience, and experience in  marketing space technology internationally as well.  Candidates for  this might be TRW, Rockwell, Lockheed, and Martin, and possibly  McDonnell Douglas and Boeing.  But most of those firms have cash  flow problems (MDC), have had a substantial business contraction  (Boeing and MDC), are involved with other launch firms (Lockheed),  or have taken on substantial debt (Martin).  And coming up with the  $700-1500 M purchase price for the division is a big chunk of  change for any company.]    5 - ARIANE PREDICTS DIP IN LAUNCH DEMAND    Arianespace, the operator of the Ariane launch system, is  projecting a dip in launch demand in the late 1990's.  In early  February, Arianespace released their annual market survey, which  detailed their projection of the space transportation market for the  next decade.     Over short run, Arianespace expects to retain their dominant  position and sustain a majority share of the launch market.  Of 54  international and commercial launches planned through 1995, Ariane  holds contracts for 31, General Dynamics' Atlas vehicle holds 14  contracts, McDonnell Douglas' Delta holds 7, and Great Wall's Long  March vehicle holds 2 launch contracts.     Three-quarters of future launch contracts for which Ariane can  compete are projected to come from communications satellites with  the remaining 25% split between weather, Earth observation, and  scientific satellites.  Most of the future telecommunications demand  growth is predicted to come from the Asia/Pacific region.     Arianespace expects the current market consolidation of  individual satellite operators into regional or national groups will  continue, with these groups investing in heavier satellites with  larger communications payloads carrying more transponders.  Arianespace predicts the average mass of telecommunications  satellites should increase by 20 % over today's average level, to  about 3000 kg in GEO.     Demand for commercial launch services is expected to remain  strong over the next three years, but in the second half of the  decade, Arianespace predicts demand will decrease.  Arianespace  bases this prediction upon a matching of satellite transponder  demand and supply,  particularly as new data compression techniques  appear to could double or triple transponder capacity using existing  or near-term transponders.     One of the significant possible changes in the market was  identified as the arrival of new launch vehicles, including Russian  launch systems.  But Arianespace predicts that in the long term,  investors purchasing launch services are looking for the best trade  off between launch service quality and price, and that Russian and  other new launch services will have to prove out their capabilities  and service quality, and their market penetration will be minimal.     [Commentary:  Ariane releases their market surveys annually, and  I reported on their prior market survey in a past issue of CSN/STI.   Comparing the two surveys, there aren't outstanding differences in  the numbers.   The most notable change is the consideration of new  data compression techniques, reducing the demand for new physical  transponders on orbit.    I note that in contrast to some predictions, demand for space- based communications transponders appears to be remain strong. While  fiber optic lines are making substantial inroads into the  established point-to-point telecommunications markets, growing  demand for telecommunications services world wide and for point-to- multipoint broadcast services have prevented a decrease in space  transponder demand.  Fiberoptic cables provide a higher capability  service, but only from established point A to established point B.  To establish a fiberoptic link it is necessary to install cable  between the points, and while there are improved network solutions,  installing a large network of distributed fiberoptic links can cost  millions or billions of dollars.      For broadcast services where there is not an existing ground  network structure, satellites still offer the most cost effective  solution.  And if new services are required into a new region, it is  cheaper to install a small satellite link costing only a few tens of  thousands of dollars and tie into the existing global satellite  network.  This allows rapid growth of new satellite services, and  has kept demand high.  The replacement market for fiberoptics is  growing as well, since as demand grows between the points serviced,  it becomes cost effective to later install a fiberoptic link to  handle the increase in traffic.     Since the telecommunications and data transfer markets are still  growing rapidly, satellite market projections remain rosy.  But  satellites are also getting longer orbital lifetimes.  Current  generation satellites are now getting guarantees of at 15 years of  on-orbit service or more, in contrast to 10 years of service from  last generation's satellites.  This has cut back some of the launch  demand, as satellite owners are rescheduling replacement satellite  launches over longer intervals.     And as last note; Arianespace didn't flag it this year, but it  looks like the space transportation market will be rather over- supplied by existing launch systems in the near term.  The annual  commercial launch demand is for about 15-20 medium sized satellites  per year.  From the supply side, Ariane is capable of launching up  to about a dozen medium sized satellites a year, Delta is capable of  about 9-12 per year, Atlas is capable of 6-12, Long March 4-8,  Japan's H-Vehicle 2-4, Russia's Proton capable of 8, and other  systems such as Zenit and Soyuz another 10-20 medium launches per  year.  That's a lot of capability for a small market.     We can only expect the competition to intensify for commercial  launches.]  6- NTSB INVESTIGATES PEGASUS LAUNCH OVER ABORTED ABORT     The 9 Feb Pegasus launch by Orbital Sciences Corporation has  spawned an investigation over an apparent violation of range safety  rules.  A valid abort order from a NASA range safety officer to halt  the mission was overridden and the Pegasus was launched in violation  of range safety rules.      In the last few minutes of the Pegasus launch countdown, one of  two abort command receivers aboard the Pegasus failed.  Such a failure  typically scrubs a launch,and a NASA range safety officer at  Wallops Island, VA issued a mission abort order about a minute  before the scheduled Pegasus launch.  Somehow this command was  overridden by the OSC launch team or the message was lost in the  communications channels, and the Pegasus was launched despite the  valid abort call.     Fortunately, the Pegasus functioned as expected, and the abort  command receiver was not needed.  But this incident did spark an  investigation since a valid abort order was given under agreed-to  launch constraint rules, and was not obeyed.     Leading the investigation is the National Transportation Safety  Board (NTSB) with support from NASA, OSC, and the Air Force.  This  investigation marks the first time NTSB has taken the lead on an  incident involving a space launch.  According to the NTSB, their  investigation will take about 6 months, and is primarily looking at  lines of authority, communications links and safety procedures used  in the launch.    [Commentary: This is the first time that the NTSB has led an  investigation into a space launch.  Their leadership was requested  by the Department of Commerce's Office of Commercial Space  Transportation, who had licensed the commercial launch.      At the time of writing this column, some of the initial  investigations have been concluded, and some of the results are  starting to leak out into the trade press.  Apparently, 3 or four  different communications channels were in use during the test. After  the abort destruct receiver stopped responding, the NASA test  director and range controller in the Mission Control room at Wallops  Island gave abort orders about a minute before the launch.   According to the mission rules, this should have stopped the launch.  Somehow, the OSC test conductor ordered the abort reversed, and the  NASA communicator on the net relayed that order to the B-52 carrying  the Pegasus at about 22 seconds before launch.  Differing  explainations of exactly how this happened are proposed -- with the  best set being that clear lines of communications and clear  definition of the responsibilities of the mission control team, and  understanding of the mission rules were not established before the  launch.      As we see more and more commercial launches, more of these  procedural issues are going to crop up and will have to be resolved.    This case is interesting because it is the first time the NTSB has  been called in to investigate a commercial launch problem (as they  do with commercial aircraft problems).      I think this problem will turn out to be primarily problems with  procedures and communications, and will be cleared up with issuance  of guidelines on how launch communications should be set up and how  specific lines of authority should be delineated.]   7- ANOTHER PEGASUS COMPETITOR IS ANNOUNCED    Tsniimach Enterprise in Russia announced it is marketing a new  small space launch system, based upon converted ICBM components.   Two versions of the launcher are being marketed: the "Aerokosmos"  winged vehicle launched like the OSC Pegasus, and the "Severkosmos",  launched from a mobile ground transporter.  The Aerokosmos is  projected to deliver 900 kg to a 200 km circular orbit or 580 kg to  an 800 km circular orbit, and the Severkosmos to be capable of 430  kg to 200 km orbits and 225 kg to 800 km.  Also proposed to be used  with these launch systems is a LEO data relay system called  'Sineva'.  Tsniimach Enterprise is described as a ex-military  establishment, focusing on aerodynamics and thermal protection of  spacecraft and which has participated in the development of the  Buran shuttle system,  They are located near the NPO Energia  facility in Kaliningrad, outside of Moscow.     [Commentary: There's very little released information on this new  venture.  My suspicion is it is another Russian enterprise looking  for hard currency and trying to capitalize upon their in-house  knowledge of ex-Soviet launch systems.  It adds to the list of numerous  commercial space startups announced from the ex-Soviet Union.     This one's a little different in that they are offering variants  of ex-Soviet ICBMs, but I can't identify any key customers being  targeted or substantial financial backing.]  8- GEORGIA LAUNCH SITE DROPPED FROM PLANNING    In late January, Georgia Tech Research Institute released the  results of a preliminary study on the feasibility of a commercial  rocket launching site in Camden County, Georgia at the old Kingsland  Missile Test Launching Site on the Atlantic coast.  The preliminary  study recommended the site not be pursued as a commercial launch  site, stating reopening the site was not feasible due to projected  low investment returns, plus environmental and other geographic  considerations.  However, the report did say the site might be ideal  for other aerospace uses, and recommended other potential uses.     [Commentary:  This should put the nails in the coffin of the  Kingsland Commercial Launch Site.  While other sites are still  proceeding with commercial launch site development plans, Kingsland  found without a key customer to act as anchor tenant, and if  substantial infrastructure had to be put in, then the expected  returns were too low to justify the cost of development.      This might point out some key discriminators in judging the  feasibility of a commercial launch site.  These include:   - Is there an identified key customer to provide core usage  sufficient to recover setup costs?   - Is there a market advantage of using the site?   - Can existing infrastructure be used or modified at the site?   - Can financing be found at low enough cost to support the  investment?      Other commercial launch site ventures -- including those at  Woomera, Poker Flat, Cape York, White Sands, Alabama Off-Shore  Platform, Hawaii, and Vandenberg have to also be judged against  these criteria.  In my opinion, some of these ventures are flying  on hope and speculation, and not on sound financial grounds.]  9- SPAIN'S CAPRICORNIA LAUNCHER STILL PROCEEDING    In one of his last official acts, former President Bush  authorized space technology transfer for several joint space  ventures between US and other firms.  One of these was a proposed  use of US technology by Spain to build a small booster.  With that  regulatory impediment removed, the 3-stage Capricornia launch  vehicle will start development later this year, planning for a first  launch in the 1995/96 time period.  The Capricornia is described as  a small 3-stage all solid booster designed to put 250-500 Kg into  LEO.  Several launch sites are being examined for the system,  including 2 on the Iberian peninsula and 1 on the Canary Islands.   Originated by INTA in Spain, the project reports it has $ 30 M in  development funding, and will use technology from Argentina's Condor  launch vehicle as well as from the US.     [Commentary:  Several firms have identified a market opportunity  in providing a small launcher for the European market.  Small  payloads from European firms or organizations currently use either  Ariane piggyback launches or the US/Italian Scout launcher.   However, Ariane piggyback opportunities are limited, and the Scout  program is being phased out (accompanied by some disarray in the  Italian government and space industry regarding any follow-on  system).      This has left an apparent niche for a new European small launch  system.  Surprisingly enough, ESA has not supported development of  such a system within the current space funding structure.  Studies  have been performed by British Aerospace, Aerospatiale, Deutsche  Aerospace, and Italian organizations, but with the exception of the  Swedish/PacAstro system (reported below), I have not been able to  find any other European development work with even a rumor of  funding for hardware.     Also of interest is the linking of the Capricornia to the  Argentinian Condor launcher.  There have been some interesting  rumors surfacing out of Argentina over the past year about a space  launcher/IRBM program funded under the military junta which ruled  the country in the 1970's and early 1980's.     What is known is in Feb 1992, the Argentinian Air Force formally  transferred control of the Condor 2 missile program to the new  civilian Argentinian national space agency (Comison Nacional de  Atividades Espaciales - CNAE).  The Condor 2 program was described  as originating in 1983, expanding upon the smaller Condor 1 rocket  program in collaboration with Egypt and with support of German  firms.  The Condor 2 was also reportedly funded indirectly by Iraq  in the mid-1980's.  Fairly large solid rocket motors were built and  tested, but Argentinan development of a suitable guidance package  lagged that of the propulsion system.     It should be noted CNAE is planning to launch its first  scientific satellite in late 1994.  The US$ 9 M, 181 Kg, SAC-B  satellite will study the Earth's upper atmosphere and includes  cooperative experiments from Italy and the US. No launch vehicle has  yet been selected, but OSC's Pegasus and the Russian Burlak Air  launched rocket are reported to be strong contenders for this  contract.]   10- PACASTRO SIGNS LAUNCH RESERVATION WITH SWEDISH SPACE CORP    PacAstro, a small launch firm in Herndon, Virginia announced in  late February it had received a $6 M launch reservation contract  from the Swedish Space Corp to launch a satellite on PacAstro's PA-2  launch vehicle.   This will be performed as part of the Polar  Satellite Service (PSS), a joint Norwegian Space Center/ Swedish  Space Corp. program to upgrade the Andoya Rocket Range in Norway and  offering small satellite launches into the polar regions.  According  to PacAstro, PSS is also performing an $8 M upgrade of the Andoya  launch facilities, including a new integration facility and a fully- enclosed vertical assembly building for small launch vehicles like  the PacAstro PA-2.  PacAstro has been chosen as "the main  alternative rocket supplier" for the small satellite launch service  to be offered by PSS from Andoya.  The date of the launch of the  Swedish satellite was not specified.     [Commentary:  PacAstro has been trying to line up customers and  funding for their launch vehicle for some time now.  The PA-2 is a  small, two stage rocket fueled by RP-1 and Liquid Oxygen.  From  PacAstro's literature, the engines designed for the PA-series  rockets are built of "off the shelf" components based upon the Lunar  MOdule Descent Engines built by TRW, and are capable of putting a  225 Kg satellite into a 750 km circular polar orbit.      PacAstro is trying to arrange construction financing for its  first three PA-2 vehicles, with a first launch planned for 1995, and  2 orbital launches planned for 1996.  My records show PacAstro hired  TRW to provide marketing support and systems design,  with primary  engineering to be done by AeroAstro, a small satellite builder  closely associated with PacAstro (headquartered in the same  building).  The Swedish Space Corporation would supply engineering,  launch operations, vehicle subsystems, and marketing support.  Sumitomo Corp. of Tokyo, is a first round investor and sits on the  board of directors.      PacAstro has gotten a first round financial package of at least  $550 K  (Some sources place this of high as $1 M), but has been  searching for about a year for the additional $20-30 M needed to  design, build and launch their first set of vehicles.     The launch reservation from SSC can possibly be used to help  bring some investors on board, but by my estimate, they will need  much more than the single $6 M sale to put their venture into real  hardware.]   11- CHINA AND TAIWAN JOINT SATELLITE VENTURE REPORTED     In early March, it was reported a joint satellite communications  venture between a Taiwanese and mainland Chinese was in the works.   As reported in the Taipei press, China Development Corp. (CDC),  headquartered in Taiwam and with links to the ruling Nationalist  Party, is planning to set up a joint venture in Hong Kong with China  Great Wall Industry Corp. with the objective of launching a regional  communications satellite. CDC would cover about 10% of the satellite  system cost (US $10 M) in exchange for rights to 10% of the  satellite's communications channels.      [Commentary:  This announcement came close on the heels of the  release of Taiwanese plans for space development (released in mid  January).   In those plans, the National Space Program Office of  Taiwan will launch 3 satellites, starting with ROCSAT-1, a 400 Kg  scientific spacecraft, planned for launch in 1997.  Two additional  satellites are planned, both communications satellites.   TRW has  been helping Taiwan plan this program, budgeted at T$13.6 B (US $530  M) through 2006.      I haven't been able to establish any relationship between this  venture and those of the NSPOT, but there might be a connection.   While Taiwan has the financing to pursue several ventures, the  current Taiwanese telecommunications market might not support two  separate sastellite ventures.     The reported name for the Tiawanese/Chinese system is "Asiasat- 2", but I don't thinks this has any relationship with the existing  Hong Kong-based "Asiasat" program involving Chinese, Hong Kong, and  other Asian investors, other than using it as an organizational  model.  There are some obvious advantages to pursuing such a joing  venture -- it could provide excellent first-hand experience to  Taiwan for a very low cost, which then can be used in later  satellite ventures.  But there are internal political issues between  Taiwanese and Chinese ventures, but putting any joint venture  through a  Hong Kong intermediary corporation might allow it to  proceed.     In any case, the East Asian satellite market is lighting up with  substantially growth projected in space services and revenues.  This  is just another indicator to add to the list.]   12- SOUTH KOREA ANNOUNCES NATIONAL MOVE INTO SPACE TECHNOLOGIES    South Korea's Trade, Industry and Resources Ministry recently  announced plans to invest US$22 B in research and development and  another US$17 B into manufacturing and research facilities for  advanced aerospace technologies.  Space technologies have been  specifically targeted as part of this program, beginning with  manufacture and launch of an advanced multi-purpose satellite by  1997.  The objective of this investment is to raise South Korea's  aerospace technology to the level of the world's top 10 countries by  2000.                                     [Commentary: South Korea has been quietly working to develop its  national aerospace industry, specifically including space  activities. I'm noting this as a flag that potential new players are  coming into the commercial space market.     As part of their national effort, 2 national telecommunications  satellites for Korea Telecom will be launched in April and Oct 1995  on Delta. Designated Koreasat 1 and 2, the platforms will provide  television and telephone service throughout the Korean Peninsula,  southwestern Japan and portions of China bordering North Korea.     South Korea launched its first small satellite piggyback on  Ariane in Aug 1992, called Uribyol-1 (Our Star) and costing about US  $8.8 M.  Uribyol-2 is planned for piggyback launch in October of  this year, again on Ariane, and will be entirely "made in Korea."   Uribyol-3, projected for a 1995 launch, will be an environment- monitoring micro-satellite.     This satellite may be the precursor to a series of small Earth  observation satellites,  The KEOS (Korean Earth Observation System)  project, which has been submitted for approval to the South Korean  government, would use two or three 300-kg spacecraft equipped with  optical and microwave sensors.    South Korean press reports claim there is also a parallel  military effort to establish the capabilities for building and  launching small military satellites by 2001.  Supposedly a  government panel had been established to oversee such an effort,  funded at US $ 500 M between 1993 and 2001, in anticipation of an   expected pullout of U.S. intelligence-gathering systems from the  Korean peninsula.           In conjunction with all of these reported efforts, South Korean  is also pursuing production work either as off-sets to existing  aerospace technology contracts (for example, McDonnell Douglas is  offsetting production of some Delta parts to South Korean firms as  part of the Koreasat launch contracts), or for production of  consumer space items (among other products, South Korea exports  satellite receiver television setups to Japan, and Samsung has  announced teaming for production of OSC's Orbcomm user terminals.).      This looks like a very aggressive push into space technologies.   Considering that East Asia is currently the fastest growing sector  for commercial space services (primarily for telecommunications), a  South Korean push into space technologies may change the composition  of commercial space market there over the next decade.]   13- SPACE TECHNOLOGY INDEXES THROUGH MARCH    As announced in the last CSN/STI, each issue will give the  results of stock indexes and portfolios regarding space stocks and  investments.  The table below summarizes results to the end of  March.  The Space Technology Index did quite a bit better than the  market as a whole, as represented by the S&P 500 index.  Since 90+%  of the values included in the index are US firms, this represents a  general increase in the market value of space-related firms.  The  increase in the first quarter is more than in all of 1992 -- which  is a very promising sign, although future months may reverse this  trend. The Commercial Space Technology Index has also done quite  well, but the Pure Play portfolio -- consisting of stocks of firms  which are pure plays in space technologies -- has also surpassed its  results in all of 1993.  We'll keep an eye on these ....     INDEX RESULTS THROUGH MARCH                            Beginning  Beginning      1 Jan 93 to                            1992       1993           31 Mar 1993                            -------    --------       --------    S&P 500                 416        436  (+4.7%)   452  (+3.7%)    Space Tech Index        267        304 (+13.6%)   373 (+22.7%)    Comm'l Space Tech Index 167        194 (+16.3%)   222 (+14.2%)    Space Tech Pure Plays   147        169 (+15.4%)   197 (+16.2%)   FINAL NOTES -      What?  This column's already full?  And I still have bunches of  commercial space developments to report on.  As I said at the start  of this, column there's been a lot of interesting happenings - but  I'll have to put them into the next issue.      Looking ahead, I've got several articles in the works on new  happenings with Iridium and the LEO communications satellite market,  more news on international launchers appearing (and disappearing) on  the market, new international commercial space ventures,  and other  interesting developments.     And as always, I hope you folks find this stuff useful and  interesting -- Any and all comments are welcome.