In article <1993Apr30.083345.15696@nuscc.nus.sg> eng10511@nusunix1.nus.sg (RAM VIKASH TIWARY) writes: >	As the the peace talks resume in the Middle East, I would humbly >like to make some personal observations as to their prospects of success >or failure and what's at stake. > >	The present talks were suspended for over 4 months after the >Israeli expulsion of more the 400 palestinians for alleged links with >the extremist Islamic organisation Hamas.  The future of the talks was >in the balance and their continuance was only guaranteed after some >concessions by Israel.  Now that all the parties are back to the >negotiating table, the stakes as I see is are indeed high and the future >stability of the region and perhaps the world is in the balance. > >	The resumption of the talks was followed by a goodwill gesture >by Israel involving the return of 30 exiled Palestinians from Jordan to >the Occupied Territories.  These, however were not the Palestinians >expelled in December.  The group constituted intellectuals and >professionals who had been exiled after the '67 war for the political >stand which was then regarded as dangerous. > >	The choice of these Arabs, who support the peace talks, >illustrates the dilemma now faced by Israel.  Its erstwhile arch >enemies, ie PLO and its backers now seem willing to talk peace while a >new wave of Islamic fundamantalism sweeping the Middle East has seen the >rise of an even more implacable foe under the banner of Hamas.   > >	While Israel continues to refuse to talk to the PLO, labelling >it a "terrorist organisation", the window of opportunity for peace is >narrowing by the day.  If the present talks are allowed to deadlock >without agreement for a long term and lasting peace that taken into >account the interest of all involved, the chances of peace will indeed >receed.  The PLO, by its decision to rejoin the talks, has staked its >reputation on the success of the talks.  The longer the talks continue, >and they started 1 and half years ago, without any tangible progress, >the further will the PLO support in the territories erode. > >	What is urgently needed is some dramatic gesture, worked out by >Israel with US approval that could spur the peace process and force the >Arabs and Palestinians to reciprocate.  Vague promises as to interim >government and return of territories is evidently too little too late to >be any good.  You might ask why must the Israelis and not the Arabs make >the first substantive moves.  The answer must lie in the tenous support >at best that the talks receive among the mass of Arab people and the >fact the Israel holds the most important cards, namely land.   > >If a land for peace agreement can be reached, and real soon, the chances >of a comprehensive peace treaty is good.  The Arabs, once and for all, >recognise Israel's right to exist inside secure borders, and Isreal >would in turn recognise the legitimate right of the Palestinians to self >deternimation and statehood.  With peace guarantee by air tight >treaties, the region can then hope to dwell on the economic and social >well being of its population, rather than prepare for the next war. > >-- >------------------------------------------------------------------------------- >Ram Vikash Tiwary                        -  The alternative to peace is not   >Department of Civil Engineering	            war, it is annihilation. >National University of Singapore               >eng10511@nusunix.sg                          >					     >-------------------------------------------------------------------------------