why did the famous 1936 literary digest poll failed to predict the winner of the presidential
For the 1936 election, the Literary Digest prediction was that Landon would get 57% of the vote against Roosevelt's 43% (these are the statistics that the poll measured).The actual results of the election were 62% for Roosevelt against 38% for Landon (these were the parameters the poll was trying to measure).The sampling error in the Literary Digest poll was a whopping 19%, the largest ever in a major public opinion poll.here were two basic causes of the Literary Digest's downfall: selection bias and nonresponse bias. The first major problem with the poll was in the selection process for the names on the mailing list, which were taken from telephone directories, club membership lists, lists of magazine subscibers, etc.