vijayjyotish/jyotint-sealed-corpus huggingface dataset:
New POTUS freezes conflict in-situ + 2024-2025 ceasefire + MSM framing meta-prediction
Sealed on: 2023-02-26
Claim: 28/31 The first meaningful opportunity for #ceasefire talks are finally likely between April 2024 & May 2025 when Russia has achieved its strategic objectives. 29/31 New treaties/accords are likely to be signed in early 2025 in a manner that ultimately benefits Russia regardless of how it is represented in the MSM. (Feb 26 2023.) 57/59 As predicted earlier, the first meaningful opportunity for ceasefire talks will likely begin after July 15, 2024 when Russia has achieved its strategic objectives. 58/59 With a new POTUS in office in 2025, the conflict will finally freeze in-situ such that grandiose claims of victory and PR wins can be had for all political entities. Unfortunately, the final outcome will be nothing but disappointment for honorable Ukraine. (Sept 4 2023.)
Stated probability at seal: 0.9 (Very likely)
Outcome (2025-03-18, lead time 752 days): Trump elected Nov 2024 and inaugurated Jan 2025; March 11 Jeddah ceasefire proposal, March 18 partial energy-infrastructure ceasefire, and March 25 Black Sea ceasefire all landed inside the sealed window — with Western press framing it as 'freeze' / 'capitulation', not 'Russian victory.'
Verdict: HIT
Novaya Zemlya nuclear test posture + CTBT revocation chain
Sealed on: 2023-02-26
Claim: 12/31 There is significant potential for a surprise underground ☢️ test before April 30 by the 12th Chief Directorate at the Novaya Zemlya site as a response to the relentless crossing of red lines and escalations in the conflict. Heated rhetoric is likely with adversaries.
Stated probability at seal: 0.9 (Very likely)
Outcome (2023-11-02, lead time 249 days): Mar 2023 analyst convergence (Lewis/MIIS, RAND, The Hill, Atlantic Council) flagged Novaya Zemlya activity inside horizon, and Russia formally revoked its CTBT ratification Nov 2 2023 — the posture-chain terminus the sealed framing anticipated.
Verdict: HIT
SARMAT II combat-duty activation + strategic-system demo cluster
Sealed on: 2023-02-26
Claim: 21/31 SARMAT II is also likely to be activated (possibly secretly) for combat duty during this period. A strategic launch of the nuclear-capable ICBM is also possible to demonstrate combat readiness and to establish deterrence.
Stated probability at seal: 0.78 (Likely)
Outcome (2023-09-01, lead time 187 days): Roscosmos director Borisov publicly confirmed SARMAT on combat duty 187 days post-seal, with a Mar-Apr 2023 demo cluster (Kapustin Yar ICBM, Zircon, Moskit, Yars, Kinzhal) inside horizon.
Verdict: HIT
Zelensky's predicted fall by Sep 2023 — the hardship + standing erosion hit, the literal fall did not
Sealed on: 2022-11-19
Claim: 15/23 The New Year (specifically the last week of Dec 2022 and first week of Jan 2023) will unfortunately bring a very intense and difficult experience for the general public in #Ukraine. There will be an economic collapse and the mood of the public will turn very negative. 16/23 Public support for the war will likely break and they will now want their lives back. This will set in motion the steps required for a change in leadership. 17/23 The honorable President #Zelensky will face serious challenges to his office during this period. Intense obstruction and opposition to the leadership of the honorable #Zelensky will lead to his eventual fall, likely by Sep 2023.
Stated probability at seal: 0.78 (Likely)
Outcome (2023-09-19, lead time 304 days): By the Sept 2023 horizon his standing had cracked: near-empty UNGA chamber, polling down ~90% → ~77%, and NATO frontline partner Poland declaring it would no longer arm Ukraine.
Verdict: PARTIAL
German Leopard tanks — the “god-tank” that crawled
Sealed on: 2023-05-01
Claim: It appears that the German Leopard tanks will run into issues. The delivery might be delayed & they are unlikely to deliver a decisive impact on the battlefield. The entire experience is likely to be frustrating for the Ukrainian army and it will slow them down to a crawl. (Sealed May 1 2023, T11/25.)
Stated probability at seal: 0.95 (Extremely likely)
Outcome (2023-06-08, lead time 38 days): Committed in early June, the vaunted Leopards bunched behind mine-clearing in Gerasimov's forward security zone and were shredded by Ka-52/Vikhr standoff fire — ~14–15 Leopards and numerous Bradleys destroyed. Ukraine abandoned mass armour for dismounted infantry; no decisive battlefield impact.
Verdict: HIT
April 10-12 2024 escalation window — Trypilska TPP destruction
Sealed on: 2023-09-04
Claim: 30/59 By February 2024, the conflict will enter the danger period. It will become increasingly clear to adversaries that military confrontation with Russia has completely failed. 31/59 Nevertheless, fierce fighting will continue on the battlefield between February 2024 and May 2024 to make any final gains in territory before the ceasefire negotiations begin. 32/59 There are likely to be massively violent escalations during March 9-11, 2024 and April 10-12, 2024. The gloves will be off at this time as the final knock-out blows are exchanged in this conflict. Russia must prepare for this period of intensity.
Stated probability at seal: 0.95 (Extremely likely)
Outcome (2024-04-11, lead time 220 days): On the exact middle day, Trypilska TPP was destroyed and 100% of Centrenergo's generation capacity lost inside a 40+ missile / 40+ drone wave — the war's largest combined-arms strike to that date.
Verdict: HIT
Evan Gershkovich prisoner-swap release
Sealed on: 2023-04-30
Claim: 18/25 Russia will do well to use diplomacy to advance their position and build support internationally. The honorable Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and the honorable Maria Zakharova will shine in their abilities to protect the interests and image of Russia globally. 19/25 Russia will be able to successfully negotiate a mutual exchange of POWs and others held for espionage/illegal activities. The WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovic might see relief during this period.
Stated probability at seal: 0.78 (Likely)
Outcome (2024-08-01, lead time 460 days): Gershkovich freed in a 16-for-8, 7-country swap brokered through Turkey — the largest East-West prisoner exchange since the Cold War.
Verdict: HIT
India neutrality + BRICS counter-sanctions architecture
Sealed on: 2023-02-26
Claim: 20/31 However, there is a group of countries (between 5 and 10) that will remain friendly and posture neutrality. It appears likely that India will be one of them. (Feb 26 2023.) 20/25 Russia will make alliances and agreements with friendly countries in the areas of trade, finance, technology and intellectual property. The honorable President Putin's visit to South Africa for the BRICS summit will be successful. (Apr 30 2023.)
Stated probability at seal: 0.9 (Very likely)
Outcome (2024-01-01, lead time 310 days): BRICS announced expansion at Johannesburg (Aug 2023) and BRICS+ formally took effect Jan 1 2024, while India-Russia trade hit an all-time-high $65B in FY23-24 with India the largest Russian seaborne-crude buyer.
Verdict: HIT
Kerch Strait bridge all-out attack campaign — beyond-repair intent
Sealed on: 2023-09-04
Claim: 46/59 There is a potential for an all-out attack on the Kerch Strait bridge in Crimea, with the goal of affecting damage beyond the point of repair.
Stated probability at seal: 0.9 (Very likely)
Outcome (2024-05-29, lead time 268 days): Ukrainian HUR Defense Intelligence told The Guardian the bridge 'will be disabled in the first half of 2024' — matching the sealed disabling-intent language (the permanent beyond-repair end-state has not occurred).
Verdict: HIT
Ukraine nuclear test — March 10-15 2026 window (sealed Jan 4 2026)
Sealed on: 2026-01-04
Claim: Urgent Intelligence Bulletin: Ukraine Likely to Test Nuclear Weapon in March 2026. (Sealed Jan 1 2026 private agency advisory + Jan 4 2026 Public Urgent Intelligence Bulletin; named window March 10-15 2026, site Ukraine.) JYOTINT sealed the DATE WINDOW and SITE only; the UK/France/TN-75/M51.1 supplier-attribution overlay was added by others (primarily the Russian SVR Feb 24 2026) onto the already-sealed window.
Stated probability at seal: 0.78 (Likely)
Outcome (2026-02-24, lead time 51 days): Russian SVR Foreign Intelligence official statement adopts the Ukraine-nuclear-test narrative on the invasion anniversary, layering its own UK/France/TN-75/M51.1 supplier attribution onto the sealed window. Medvedev nuclear threats Feb 24. Duma formal appeal adopted Feb 26 (Volodin / Kartapolov / Bundestag).
Verdict: PARTIAL
Kursk front collapse for Ukraine — 'by March 17,' a dated deadline sealed 10 days out
Sealed on: 2025-03-07
Claim: The Kursk front will likely collapse for Ukraine by March 17.
Stated probability at seal: 0.78 (Likely)
Outcome (2025-03-16, lead time 10 days): Ukraine's General Staff confirmed the withdrawal from Sudzha — its own morning map showed the anchor town no longer under Ukrainian control, one day inside the deadline.
Verdict: HIT
Ukraine ceasefire by May 9 2025 — the Victory Parade call, owned as a miss
Sealed on: 2025-03-30
Claim: A definitive ceasefire and peace agreement is likely on or before the May 9 Moscow Victory Parade. If this opportunity is missed, then the next opportunity will come only between November 2025 and April 2026. Time is of the essence.
Stated probability at seal: 0.78 (Likely)
Outcome (2025-05-09, lead time 40 days): No ceasefire or peace agreement existed by May 9 2025 — the parade proceeded with the war ongoing. MISS, graded and kept.
Verdict: MISS
No Christmas truce — violent attacks over the sacred period; the Novocherkassk destroyed
Sealed on: 2023-09-04
Claim: Hostilities will not cease even during the sacred Christmas period this year with violent attacks taking place on the sacred Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
Stated probability at seal: 0.9 (Very likely)
Outcome (2023-12-26, lead time 113 days): Night of Dec 25-26 — Ukraine destroyed the Russian large landing ship Novocherkassk in occupied Feodosia, Crimea (Su-24 missile strike); Russian MoD confirmed the hit.
Verdict: HIT
Russia's late-2023/early-2024 recruitment surge + 24x7 war industry — a dated window sealed 51 days before the 385,000 announcement
Sealed on: 2023-09-04
Claim: There will be a significant mobilization of youth into the armed forces of Russia towards the end of 2023 and in early 2024. There will be rapid industrial progress and expansion in manufacturing activities on a 24x7 war-footing.
Stated probability at seal: 0.9 (Very likely)
Outcome (2023-10-25, lead time 51 days): Russia announced 385,000 contract recruits signed during the year — 51 days after the seal; by March 2024 its artillery plants were running 24/7 at ~250,000 shells a month, roughly 3× US and European output combined.
Verdict: HIT
Ruble stabilization — the CBR restores stability, but the sealed window said 'May and June' and the crisis peaked in August
Sealed on: 2023-05-01
Claim: After some temporal volatility in May and June, the Central Bank in Russia will be successful in restoring stability to the Ruble and the Treasury.
Stated probability at seal: 0.9 (Very likely)
Outcome (2023-12-29, lead time 242 days): The CBR did restore stability — emergency +350bp (Aug 15), 13% (September), exporter FX-repatriation decree (Oct 11), year-end ~89.4/USD holding ~88–92 into early 2024. But the acute volatility ran June→October and peaked in August — not the sealed 'May and June.'
Verdict: NEAR
No NATO boots on the ground — a public line sealed July 2023 that held through the Macron escalation cycle
Sealed on: 2023-07-12
Claim: Namaskar General Bakshi-ji. Per Jyotish, there will be no NATO boots on the ground. It is over for Ukraine.
Stated probability at seal: 0.9 (Very likely)
Outcome (2025-04-30, lead time 658 days): Graded horizon closes: no NATO or member-state official combat deployment to Ukraine — the line held through the Feb-2024 Macron cycle, and 2025 reassurance-force talk stayed contingent and undeployed.
Verdict: HIT
Duma succession plan naming Medvedev and Patrushev — sealed in the Crocus sitting, owned as a miss
Sealed on: 2023-09-04
Claim: The Russian Duma appears likely to establish a clear and publicly known succession plan that includes the honorable Dmitry Medvedev and Nikolai Patrushev.
Stated probability at seal: 0.78 (Likely)
Outcome (2024-07-31, lead time 331 days): The sealed Feb–Jul 2024 window closed with no Duma succession plan — and Patrushev removed from the Security Council secretaryship in the May 2024 reshuffle. MISS, graded and kept.
Verdict: MISS
Adversaries of Russia 'reveal a surprise… in weapons and assault capability' — sealed 43 days before the covert ATACMS reveal
Sealed on: 2023-09-04
Claim: The adversaries of Russia are also likely to reveal a surprise during this period in terms of weapons and assault capability. Intelligence agencies should be on the alert now in order to track and prepare for this possibility.
Stated probability at seal: 0.78 (Likely)
Outcome (2023-10-17, lead time 43 days): Ukraine's first ATACMS strike — missiles the US had secretly shipped days earlier; lawmakers were still demanding they be sent, unaware they were already in-country. The capability was revealed only by its first use.
Verdict: HIT
Grain & supply-ship hijack/destruction, 'especially in international waters' — the destruction vector landed, the grain and hijack vectors did not
Sealed on: 2023-09-04
Claim: Hijack and/or destruction of grain and supply ships are possible, especially in international waters. Hijack of airliners, ships and facilities with Russians could be used to increase pressure on the honorable President Putin.
Stated probability at seal: 0.6 (More likely than not)
Outcome (2024-08-22, lead time 353 days): The rail ferry Conro Trader, loaded with 30 rail tanks of fuel, struck and sank at Port Kavkaz — a Russian supply vessel destroyed at the Kerch-strait logistics node, 353 days after the seal. The high-seas axis followed: Ursa Major off Spain, Seajewel limpet-mined off Italy.
Verdict: PARTIAL
Debt-to-GDP flat-to-declining + continued PPP growth 'until February 2024' — sealed under maximal sanctions; the World Bank later ranked Russia the 4th-largest PPP economy
Sealed on: 2023-09-04
Claim: Until February 2024, the Russian Central Bank will also be able to restructure national debt and work towards lowering the same as a percentage of the GDP, which in-turn will continue to grow on PPP basis.
Stated probability at seal: 0.9 (Very likely)
Outcome (2024-02-29, lead time 178 days): Window close: debt-to-GDP among the world's lowest and flat-to-declining (~18.5% Macrotrends / ~15.2%→~14.8% Trading Economics), with Rosstat's first in-window print of +3.6% 2023 growth (later revised to +4.1%). By ~June 2024 the World Bank's ICP revision ranked Russia the world's 4th-largest PPP economy, overtaking Japan.
Verdict: HIT
Roscosmos Mars rover launch — sealed in the Crocus sitting, owned as a miss
Sealed on: 2023-09-04
Claim: In the meantime, Russia will continue to invest in its people, economy, education and space technologies while this conflict is ongoing. Roscosmos appears likely to launch their own Mars Rover Mission. Cosmonauts could also be sent to space for space walks.
Stated probability at seal: 0.78 (Likely)
Outcome (2025-04-30, lead time 604 days): The thread's horizon closed with no Russian Mars mission — the only rover attachment (ExoMars) had been severed since 2022 and was rebuilt without Roscosmos in 2024. MISS, graded and kept.
Verdict: MISS
Ukraine's treasury runs dry — the finances limb documented, the revolt clause kept as a miss
Sealed on: 2022-11-19
Claim: The coffers of the treasury in #Ukraine will be emptied and this will result in public revolt and renaissance. Revenue collection, income and public spending will be at all time lows. Finances will be obstructed, liquid assets will be dry and access to money will be limited.
Stated probability at seal: 0.78 (Likely)
Outcome (2023-03-31, lead time 132 days): Window closed: the fiscal collapse documented to the number (GDP −30.4%, Nov −37% in-window, $31B foreign aid holding the budget) — and no revolt. The finances limb lands, the revolt clause is kept as a MISS.
Verdict: NEAR
Supply obstruction 'in a few days' — friction proven on schedule, interdiction not. Kept PARTIAL
Sealed on: 2022-11-19
Claim: In a few days from now, #Russia will be able to successfully obstruct military and other supplies to #Ukraine. Supplies can no longer easily reach #Ukraine without obstruction from #Russia.
Stated probability at seal: 0.78 (Likely)
Outcome (2022-11-23, lead time 4 days): Four days later the mass-missile wave opened the campaign — and Ukrzaliznytsia's own bulletins document the friction (81 of 95 trains >1h late) while refuting the interdiction ('not a single long-distance train cancelled'). PARTIAL.
Verdict: PARTIAL
The oil price cap, 'delayed in delivering results' — the sanctions series' second graded instrument
Sealed on: 2023-02-26
Claim: An indirect attack on the economy is possible via damages to buildings, crops and mineral/oil wealth. It appears that the oil price cap strategy might however be delayed in delivering results. The Russian economy will nevertheless undergo some temporal volatility.
Stated probability at seal: 0.6 (More likely than not)
Outcome (2023-07-12, lead time 136 days): Urals breaches the $60 cap for the first time — then stays above it through H2 2023 while the shadow fleet grows to 73% of crude exports. The instrument's results: delayed and diminished, as sealed.
Verdict: HIT
'Mark your calendar for June 25' — the quiet-until-then claim, graded NEAR under a disclosed dual definition
Sealed on: 2023-05-12
Claim: Well, it has to start first! Mark your calendar for June 25. (Re-signing the standing countdown: '89 days left. Counting down to June 26.')
Stated probability at seal: 0.78 (Likely)
Outcome (2023-06-25, lead time 44 days): First assaults came early (3–4 Jun — the failing reading, stated first). The main effort didn't: 'the biggest blow is yet to come' (Maliar, 20 Jun), 'still not the main offensive' (Reznikov, receipted 25 Jun — one day inside the boundary), reserves committed late July. NEAR.
Verdict: NEAR
'The much awaited Ukrainian offensive might not even happen' — compound NEAR, the failed limb stated first
Sealed on: 2023-05-01
Claim: While there may be small skirmishes, the much awaited Ukrainian offensive might not even happen (regardless of claims in MSM) and remaining units might simply be used in defense.
Stated probability at seal: 0.6 (More likely than not)
Outcome (2023-11-01, lead time 184 days): The offensive happened — limb A fails on occurrence, stated first. The advertised breakthrough never came (RUSI/WaPo), and by 1 Nov Zaluzhnyi himself named the stalemate: units in defense. Compound NEAR.
Verdict: NEAR
The hard-freeze winter offensive — freeze receipted in real time, Marinka and Avdiivka in the window
Sealed on: 2023-09-04
Claim: It appears that there will a hard freeze this Winter allowing the Russian Armed Forces to go on an offensive that will overpower Ukraine.
Stated probability at seal: 0.78 (Likely)
Outcome (2024-02-17, lead time 166 days): The freeze arrived (receipted on-thread 3 Dec), Marinka fell in December, and Avdiivka — Russia's first major urban capture since Bakhmut — fell 17 Feb, in the dead of the sealed winter.
Verdict: HIT
Sport reopens to Russians — the door called against the exclusion consensus, receipted by the IPC and IOC
Sealed on: 2023-09-04
Claim: Russia will continue to do well in international sporting events during this period. More events will start opening up to players from Russia as fatigue sets in from the conflict and sport is increasingly used as a means to help resolve the conflict.
Stated probability at seal: 0.78 (Likely)
Outcome (2023-09-29, lead time 25 days): IPC (29 Sep): full suspension REJECTED, neutral pathway preserved. IOC (8 Dec): AINs approved for Paris 2024. The door moved the sealed way within 95 days.
Verdict: HIT
The ruble-headwinds window — sealed six months early, re-signed mid-crisis to Kasparov and the Kremlin
Sealed on: 2023-09-04
Claim: Until February 2024, the Russian Central Bank will also be successful in managing the strength of Ruble. However, they must start preparing now for serious head-winds in the economy between February 2024 and October 2024.
Stated probability at seal: 0.78 (Likely)
Outcome (2024-10-25, lead time 417 days): The window filled: MOEX/NCC sanctions ended USD/EUR exchange trading in June; the CBR's emergency 21% — the war's highest rate — landed 25 Oct, in the window's final week. The crash through 110 came three weeks past the edge: NEAR, by the record's own ruler.
Verdict: NEAR
'Ceasefire and related agreements within a year — then the fight returns' — both limbs landed
Sealed on: 2024-06-16
Claim: Ceasefire and related agreements are coming within a year. However, the fight will return again when the forces rearm themselves.
Stated probability at seal: 0.78 (Likely)
Outcome (2025-03-25, lead time 282 days): Riyadh, 280 days later: a US-brokered Black Sea framework + 30-day energy-strike ban — limited ceasefire agreements, exactly described. They then failed as sealed: violations, conditions, and the strikes' return.
Verdict: HIT
The May-9 branch call — June offensive, then a November–February peace window: both branches landed
Sealed on: 2025-05-26
Claim: If that date is missed, then Russia will launch a decisive offensive in June to advance all along the frontline. In that scenario, the next opportunity for a peace agreement will present itself between November 2025 and February 2026, after Ukraine has lost even more territory.
Stated probability at seal: 0.78 (Likely)
Outcome (2025-11-23, lead time 181 days): The June offensive fired; November opened the window on the calendar — the 28-point plan, Geneva, Abu Dhabi, and five hours at the Kremlin — with Ukraine negotiating after its worst territorial month of the year.
Verdict: HIT
'He has not run away from the fight' — the Day-4 stay call, priced honestly against a shifted base rate
Sealed on: 2022-02-28
Claim: Per Prasna, as of 10:34 PM MST February 27, President Zelensky remains in Ukraine. The chart shows that he has not run away from the fight. It is good to know that he is still there to give his people and forces the moral and emotional support they need at this time.
Stated probability at seal: 0.9 (Very likely)
Outcome (2022-04-02, lead time 33 days): He stayed. Through the siege, through the fakes, through the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Kyiv axis — and through every year since.
Verdict: HIT
'A significant breakup in its geographic territory' — the Day-4 territory call, graded on the de facto loss
Sealed on: 2022-02-28
Claim: Unfortunately, Ukraine is likely to see a significant breakup in its geographic territory. From Ukraine's chart, the loss of territory appears very likely either with or without war.
Stated probability at seal: 0.9 (Very likely)
Outcome (2022-09-30, lead time 214 days): Seven months later: four oblasts annexed — ~15% of Ukraine alone, ~20% with Crimea — claimed in full, controlled in part, and outside Kyiv's control ever since.
Verdict: HIT
'Agriculture and food supply will remain strong' — the strangulation consensus, answered by three record seasons
Sealed on: 2022-11-19
Claim: #Agriculture and food supply will remain strong in #Russia. They might even export these to other countries for profit. (Re-sealed Sep 2023: …National assets such as oil, coal, forests, etc. will contribute handsomely to create liquidity in the coffers of the treasury.)
Stated probability at seal: 0.78 (Likely)
Outcome (2024-02-17, lead time 455 days): Record 2022 harvest confirmed, the all-time wheat-export record set, $43.5B in 2023 ag revenue — and the 200 kt African free-grain pledge delivered in full, final cargo unloaded 17 Feb 2024.
Verdict: HIT