GSLV Mk II / NISAR — T-0 No-Go, T-16d
Sealed on: 2025-06-30
Claim: Muhūrtha Risk Advisory & Open Challenge
Mission: NASA–ISRO SAR (NISAR)
Vehicle: GSLV Mk II
Pad: Satish Dhawan Space Centre, Sriharikota
Published T-0: Wednesday, 16 July 2025 | 17:00 IST

I. Consolidated Forecast

Pilgrimages to Sri Venkateswara at the Tirumala Tirupati @TTDevasthanams hill shrine—often paired with a stop at Chengalamma Temple in Sullurpeta—are woven into @isro culture. Engineers regularly present miniature launch vehicles, seeking blessings for clean engine starts and perfect staging. The ritual never conflicts with calculus or telemetry; it complements them.

Yet a contradiction emerges: the temple visit is welcomed, but the astrological timing counsel that flows from the same tradition is set aside. That selective respect will prove costly. If this advisory is ignored—if the analysis is dismissed or mocked—no procession up Tirumala's 3,550 steps will rescue the mission. The GSLV Mk II will not lift off at 17:00 IST. A countdown hold, scrub, and re-schedule stand at Probability = 1.0 (certain).

Should the team nevertheless force a liftoff simply to prove this forecast wrong, the flight will be non-nominal. Guidance faults will arise, orbit insertion will miss the mark, and the result will be the loss of the launch vehicle and/or the $1.5 billion satellite. Even partial survival would leave @NASA @isro @NASAJPL NISAR unable to meet its science objectives.

Below are the only fault paths highlighted to date—no more, no less. Probabilities are attached; each is now rated High.

🪫 Electrical Power-System Undervolt | Probability ≈ 0.80 (High)
Weeks on the pad let individual battery cells drift. At least four minutes before liftoff (T-4 min) the avionics self-check will detect low voltage on the 28-volt bus and command an automatic hold.

🌡️ Cryogenic Fuel-Temperature Imbalance | Probability ≈ 0.80 (High)
Liquid hydrogen (LH₂) cooled even 0.8 K too far can turn slushy, while liquid oxygen (LOX) may stratify. Engines will read the wrong mixture ratio and shut the start sequence within milliseconds.

🔥 Ignition-Sequence Mistiming | Probability ≈ 0.80 (High)
The hypergolic igniter pulse and main-valve opening must align within ~30 ms. Any slip will prompt the controller to abort, avoiding a hard-start over-pressure event.

🌬️ Vent & Pressurization-Valve Stiction | Probability ≈ 0.80 (High)
Ice collars can lock a gaseous-nitrogen (GN₂) vent or a helium pressurization valve. Tank pressure will drift outside limits; flight software will veto continuation.

🛰️ Guidance & Sun-Synchronous-Orbit Injection Error | Probability ≈ 0.80 (High)
If launch proceeds regardless, inertial-reference drift and star-sensor dropout will corrupt guidance. The upper-stage burn will significantly miss the required sun-synchronous-orbit plane. Recovery ΔV will exceed onboard propellant, dooming the satellite to an unusable orbit or outright loss.

II. Courteous—Yet Firm—Challenge
1⃣ Hold the published T-0—16 July 2025, 17:00 IST—exactly.
2⃣ Run the entire countdown unchanged; do not tweak a single step to appease this forecast.
3⃣ When the attempt ends, release the raw data—battery voltages, ignition-timing traces, valve positions, guidance logs, orbit vectors, and anomaly flags—so anyone can judge the outcome.

If the rocket lifts on time and flies clean, engineering excellence will earn full credit. If the sequence halts or the flight stumbles—as predicted—the record will show that astrological timing counsel deserves the same respect already afforded to the Tirumala Tirupati pilgrimage.
Stated probability at seal: 0.99 (Virtually certain)
Outcome (Jul 16, 2025 · 17:00 IST window vanished, lead time ~16 D): The 16 Jul window vanished. Eenadu floated 18 Jul; Deccan Chronicle then reported 30 Jul · 17:00 IST as the new target; NASASpaceflight's schedule calendar rolled over; ISRO's r_isro channel confirmed the slip. The pad never reached the T-4 terminal phase, leaving the specific fault probes unfalsifiable below the threshold — the higher-level scrub-call landed exactly as sealed.
Verdict: HIT