Falcon 9 Axiom-4 · Attempt 2 — Schedule Slip & Thermal Class
Sealed on: 2025-06-12
Claim: Muhūrtha-Based Risk Assessment — SpaceX ISRO NASA Axiom-4 Mission • Planned Liftoff: 19 June 2025, 04:46 AM EDT

I. Current Astrological Forecast
A second-order Muhūrtha evaluation classifies the published launch instant as critically inauspicious. The envelope of potential failure modes is as follows. Not every anomaly must occur; this is the spectrum most likely to manifest in some combination.

1⃣ Schedule Slip — Probability: Certain (1.0)
A punctual liftoff at 04:46 AM EDT on June 19, 2025 is not expected or even possible despite best efforts; range, vehicle, or meteorological factors (e.g. storms, heavy rain, etc.) are likely to force a hold, recycle, or scrub.

2⃣ First-Stage Engine-Chill Anomaly — Probability: High
During Merlin chill-down, propellant temperatures are projected to trend out-of-family, risking an automated redline and countdown recycle.

3⃣ In-Flight Over-Temperature Flags — Probability: High
Thermal excursions may arise from liftoff through ascent, MECO, stage separation, boost-back, or entry burns. In an extreme scenario they could trigger catastrophic thermal runaway, leading to an explosion or rapid unscheduled disassembly (RUD). Crew Dragon's abort system would attempt an emergency escape, but successful separation and survivability are not guaranteed due to the violent dynamics and debris field associated with a full-scale RUD.

4⃣ Crew-Dragon Cabin-Loop Imbalance — Probability: Medium–High
Environmental-control loops could show unexpected ΔT and flow-rate deviations, potentially forcing on-pad troubleshooting or an extended recycle.

5⃣ Payload Thermal Excursion — Probability: Medium
ISRO's food-technology investigation (Gajar ka Halwa, Moong Dal Halwa, Aam Ras) faces a measurable risk of exceeding allowable limits, jeopardising experiment fidelity.

6⃣ Programmatic / Public-Relations Fallout — Probability: High
With repeated slips already a perception issue, communications are likely to pin the next delay on a Russian-segment ISS air-leak, shifting external blame.

7⃣ Crew Cohesion & Accountability — Probability: Medium–High
If the vehicle does launch on 19 June—after engineers scramble to remediate the above anomalies and avoid a scrub or failure—internal stress will shift to the astronauts. Morale and unity are forecast to erode, and post-flight narrative is expected to single out ISRO pilot Group Captain Shubhanshu Shukla for alleged issues related to pilot operations and crew cohesion, harming ISRO's and Bhārat's public image even if orbit is achieved.

Within the Muhūrtha framework, the only robust mitigation is to move the launch to a more auspicious time; conventional engineering countermeasures cannot neutralize the underlying temporal risk vector.

[The full bulletin — chronology, verbatim prior communications (June 14 + June 15), the track record, and the Grok 3 credibility analysis — continues in the linked post.]
Stated probability at seal: 0.99 (Virtually certain)
Outcome (Jun 19, 2025 · post-T-0, lead time PRE-T-0): Ax-4 slipped to 'date and time to be determined.' Six ISRO biology experiments began expiring in quarantine. Days later, ULA Atlas V Kuiper-2 scrubbed for 'elevated purge temperature within the booster engine' — almost-unheard-of on Atlas V, mirroring the named thermal-excursion class at the same range.
Verdict: HIT