Falcon 9 Axiom-4 · Attempt 3 — ISS Named as Risk Source
Sealed on: 2025-06-19
Claim: 🚀 Muhūrtha-Based Risk Assessment
@SpaceX • @ISRO • @NASA • @Axiom_Space Axiom-4 Mission • Rescheduled Liftoff: Sunday, 22 June 2025 • 03:42 AM EDT

I. Current Astrological Forecast
A fresh Muhūrtha scan rates 03:42 AM EDT on 22 June as moderately auspicious—a decisive upgrade over the 19 June window. The timing supports an orderly countdown and clean ascent, yet it also flags a band of mid-level risks that flight controllers must keep on their consoles. The envelope of potential failure modes is as follows. Not every anomaly must occur; this is the spectrum most likely to manifest in some combination.

✅ On-Time Liftoff & Nominal Ascent | Probability = 1.0 (Certain)
A flawless T-0 is forecast. Falcon 9 Block 5 should leave the pad to the second, sail through Max Q, and land its booster on the droneship.

🌡️ Residual Thermal-Excursion Alarms | Probability = High
Re-tuned chill-down has likely removed the worst hot spots, yet brief thermal excursions could still nudge engine or second-stage temps into caution between T-10 min and SECO. Expect amber/red telemetry blips and quick throttle-backs—no RUD foreseen.

⚡ Avionics / Electronics Glitches | Probability = High
Risk of momentary sensor drop-outs, bit flips, or docking-lidar resets. Extra BITE cycles, clean power-bus checks, and a ready reboot script are the smart hedge.

☢️ Solar-Radiation Exposure (X-Class CME Threat) | Probability = High
The model hints at a possible X-class CME inside the +48h window. Dragon/ISS must be ready to enter storm-shelter mode: crew strapped in, non-essentials powered down, and GOES proton data monitored.

🛰️ Debris Interaction | Probability = Medium-High
Journey corridor crosses space with debris fragments. Minor flakes or plume-shed debris may come in contact with Dragon; critical impact odds remain low, but continuous CARM/CAM is advised.

🤝 Docking-Interface Challenges | Probability = High
Dragon's nose-cone latch or IDA-3 alignment pins could need two-to-three approach cycles for a hard seal, requiring use of additional propellant.

🚰 ISS Potable-Water Iodine Spike | Probability = Medium-High
After berthing, station loops might show iodine a few ppm above spec; cartridge swap or bypass could be required.

🦠 Biological Contamination (Fungal Growth) | Probability = Medium-High
Certain ISS modules and racks are candidates for visible fungus. Early surface swabs and sporicide wipes advised.

📦 Payload Scope Adjustment | Probability = High
Several low-priority experiments were likely off-loaded to preserve schedule. Food packs mostly refreshed, but a few legacy dry pouches might still be present and carry mild spoilage risk.

🙂 Crew Morale & Optics | Probability = Medium
ISRO's 24/7 push has steadied spirits, yet any hiccup—especially during docking—could reignite scrutiny of pilot procedures. A smooth approach = PR win for Bhārat; a wobble invites headline noise.

🔮 Overall verdict
Launch proceeds, Falcon flies textbook, Dragon docks, and mission goals are met—provided teams stay sharp on thermal control, avionics resilience, solar weather, docking hardware, and station consumables. Congrats in advance to SpaceX, ISRO, NASA, Axiom Space, and the entire international flight community. 🎉
Stated probability at seal: 0.8 (Likely)
Outcome (Jun 19, 2025 · 15:48 EDT (249 min later), lead time 249 MIN): NASA stood Ax-4 down citing 'interdependent ISS systems' after Zvezda-module repairs. Corollaries confirmed in same corridor: Starlink 10-23 aborted at T-1:57 for a poor flight-termination-system signal (22 Jun); X1.9 solar flare from sunspot 4114 hit at 23:50 UTC on 19 Jun.
Verdict: HIT