vania-janet/multiturn-rag-retrieval-data huggingface dataset:
After paying off debts and the other obvious low hanging fruit, you need to start investing.  With your time frame, most advice you'll find will say go for an all equities index fund. However, the market is hot and you can do better than the S&amp;P average of 12%. Especially considering a downturn is on coming  Take your time and find a safe investment fund to start building your portfolio. I run a PE fund buying Middle Market value add properties. I work exclusively in this market because it provides consistent income that continues through downturns, and we can safely give investors 15% tax mitigated return, every time. PM me if your are interested.
"When ""people say"", each person is referring to whatever he/she is looking at.  Interest rates tend to move roughly the same, but often there is a bias regarding long vs. short term.  In the US right now, short term interest rates are very low but there is a lot of chatter saying they will rise in the future.  The differential between long term rates and short term rates is high compared to historical norms, suggesting that the market believes this chatter.  You can also look at the differences in rates between different quality levels.  If the economy is improving, the difference in rate for lower rated debt vs. higher rated debt decreases as people think the chance of businesses failing is decreasing. Right now, any interest rate you look at is well below long term historical averages, so asserting that interest rates are low is quite safe."
No time for random fights.   I'm busy creating jobssssss.  But snark aside.  How do you fill the gap between what people require to survive and what they actually get.   Clearly it's better for society as a whole that the indigent and poor be taken care of because the alternate is much more costly long term (for profit prison system yea!)  I would posit that you aren't going to do that by raising minimum wage.   It's not the long term course correction that we need.    While you probably have a picture in your mind of me being hard right cheering during Fox news broadcasts that would be incorrect.  I'm still pissed the DNC shafted Sanders during the primaries and we ended up with Trump as a direct result of their arrogance.
Successful covered calls are short term capital gains. The amount of time you have owned the underlying security is irrelevant. The gain occurred in the option period which will be an amount of days less than needed for a long term capital gain classification. Failed Covered calls can be either as the date you acquired the stock you are forced to sell determines their classification.
I agree, but if that's *all* a person wants to discuss out of that story thats missing the forest for the trees.  Also for the record,  the $800 billion in 2007-2008 vs the larger muni bond market isn't actually a lie.  You simply had a problem that it referred to more than just the 2007-2008 time frame.    That's all.  And either way it isn't material to the larger story here which was the fraud.    Nobody got 'caught lying'.
There's a grey area where investing and speculating cross. For some, the stock market, as in 10% long term return with about 14% standard deviation, is too risky. For others, not enough action.  Say you have chosen 10 penny stocks, done your diligence, to the extent possible, and from a few dozen this is the 10 you like. I'd rather put $100 into each of 10 than to put all my eggs in one basket. You'll find that 3 might go up nicely, 3 will flounder around, and 4 will go under. The gambler mentality is if one takes off, you have a profit.  After the crash of '08, buying both GM and Ford at crazy prices actually worked, GM stockholders getting nothing, but Ford surviving and now 7X what I bought it for.  Remember, when you go to vegas, you don't drop all your chips on Red, you play blackjack/craps as long as you can, and get all the free drinks you can.
"given your time frame I'm not sure if investing in a 529 is your best option. If you're investing in a 529 you may have to deal with market volatility and the amount you invest over the course of three years could be worth less than what you had initially invested when it comes to your child's college education. The main idea of starting a plan like a 529 is the time-frame for your investments to grow. You also have the option of ""pre-paying"" your child's college, but that has restrictions. Most of the state sponsored pre-pay plans limit you to state schools if that wasn't obvious. Also, the current political situation is tricky, and may influence the cost of education in ~3-4 years, but I'm not sure this is the proper place for that discussion. Also, as far as the viability of these, it depends state-by-state. I live in Illinois and don't think I would count on a payout given our current financial situation. You could, however, look into paying tuition now for a state school and it will be risk free in terms of inflation, but again, it's hard to anticipate the political scope of this. They also have private pre-pay plans, but that would limit your child's university options just as the state pre-pay. Check out this investopedia article on 529 plans, it's basic but will give you a high level overview. Bankrate has an overview as well."
Both are incorrect. What it says is if your fund value is 25,000 in first year; then this will earn 19.4% compound for 5 years. This is same as 142.5 absolute. The money invested in second year, will only earn for 4 years, compound interest of 19.4%. so on ... The 25000 invested last year only 19.4 for a year. The other aspect you are missing is when you pay 25,000; 4% goes towards charges. So you are only investing 24,000. Plus there is an amount towards life cover. Depending on age, around 1000 for one lacs. This means the investment is only 23000 or 23500. Generally it is not advised to buy ULIP. It is cheaper to buy term insurance plus mutual fund.
The United States is no longer on a gold standard, and the value of its currency is solely founded on the productivity of its economy. So I don't think there's any practical reason for the United States government to explicitly sell off a lot of gold to force the price to crash. In fact I would expect that the price of gold has very little interest for the Fed, or anyone else in a position of economic power in the government. I believe that we still have large reserves of it, but I have no idea what they are intended for, aside from being a relic of the gold standard. Best guess is that they'll be held on to just in case of an international trend back towards the gold standard, although that is unlikely on any time frame we would care about.
This is largely dependent on your overall investment goals. GIC's provide protection of the invested capital and a guaranteed return at the end of the term. However, in real terms, 1.4% over 18 months results in a loss of capital in real terms. This is because inflation in Canada is just about at or higher than 1.4% per year. In other words, at best, you are equalling inflation and gaining nothing in those 18 months. If their typical rate is 1.2% over 12 months, you are only gaining an additional 0.2% for the additional 6 months. You know as well as I do, 0.2% for 6 months is abysmal. If you have no use for the money in the medium to long term, you should look in to an index fund that is balanced, and diversified and more likely to get you a higher real return over the time period of a few years. Look in to: If you want to preserve the capital over the short term because you might need it after the 18 months period, the GIC is the safer and recommended option.
The short answer is to invest it since the rate of return is higher than your mortgage. (Assuming that you can withstand interest rate hikes, meet short term liquidity needs and don't need your $10K in the short or near term). The long answer is if you're comfortable leveraging your house and can put that $10K away for the long term you can reduce your taxes via the Smith Manoeuvre: Alternatively, if you have kids or grandkids and will help them through school, take the government's money by putting it away in an RESP.
The reason to have disability insurance is to replace your income if you become disabled and are no longer able to work.  For this purpose, it is kind of similar to life insurance where you want to replace your income to take care of people that depend on your income if you die, but now you are included in the people that depend on your income.   If your employer doesn't provide any disability insurance then it would be wise to look for some Long Term disability insurance.  Short Term disability is more expensive than long term and it is USUALLY better and cheaper to have a good emergency fund to provide for a short term disability such as being sick for a month and not able to work than to buy short-term.  As a web developer - you should be able to get long term disability insurance at a reasonable cost, unless you have some dangerous hobbies like forest fire fighting or shark juggling.
Consider the price history to be the sum of short term movements and long term movements. If you hold a stock for a long time you will benefit (or lose) from its long term movement.  If a sufficiently large and very good short term trader existed he would tend to reduce short term volatility, eventually to nearly zero. At that point, the price would rise gently over the course of the day in line with the long term variation in price. Presumably robot traders will increase the time horizon of their trades when they have exhausted the gains they can make from short term trades.
I would add to this that, while everyone is right on trading, there are certain special situations you could look into that could turn a profit in a relatively short time frame (one month, say).   A recent example is Northstar Realty Finance (NRF). I bought in at $16.50 prior to a spinoff, sold half (the spinoff company) at $18.75 within a month, and the other half (the REIT) has since paid a 50 cent dividend and gone up to mid $18s as well within a total of just over 2 months. (This admittedly sounds like bragging, which isn't intended- I just want to give an example of a short term position resulting in a gain, and I don't know any off the top of my head except the one I did recently).   This isn't trading, but it is a short term position that would have turned a profit with $1800. I still wouldn't recommend it, considering commissions eats a sizable portion. But if you want to take short term positions, you don't need as much as you would to be a day trader.   I would read Seth Klarman's Margin of Safety, the sections on spinoffs and bankruptcy. They provide some useful information on some short term positions. However, also be aware that you should be willing to hold any short term position as a long term position if it does not immediately work out. By way of example, I believed NRF would go up post spinoff but the spinoff company stay the same. Instead, NRF stayed the same and the spinoff went up. But NRF was undervalued, so I held it for another month.   Just my advice. As far as learning goes- use play money. But if you never are going to have enough money to really trade with, hopefully my info on short-term positions is helpful.
In a strictly mathematical sense, no. Or rather, it depends what 'long run' means.  Say today the home average is $200K, and payment is $900/mo. The $900 today happens to be about 20% of the median US monthly income (which is approximately $54,000/yr). Housing rises 4%/yr, income 3%/yr. In 100 years (long enough?) the house costs $10M but incomes are 'only' $1.03M/yr, and the mortgage, even at the same rate is $45K/month, or, to be clear, it rose to 52% of monthly income.  My observation is that, long term, the median home costs what 25% of median income will support, in terms of the mortgage after downpayment. Long term. That means that if you graph this, you'll see trends above and below the long term line. You'll see a 25 year bubble form starting in the late 80's as rates dropped from near 18% to the Sub-4% in the early 00s. But once you normalize it to percent of income to pay the loan, much of the bubble is flattened out. At 18%, $1500/mo bought you a $100K mortgage, but at 3.5%, it bought $335K. This is in absolute dollars, wages also rose during that time. I am just clarifying how rates distort the long term trends and create the short term anomalies.
Both have merits, Korea can plan long term for their families inheritance, the west needs to make massive gains every year short term and if the choice is screw the consumer or build loyalty. They are legally required to do the former.  I wish there were no corporations, limited  companies only.  The corporation is nothing like it was legally allowed to be.
The average of a dozen good answers is close to what would be right, the wisdom of crowds. But any one answer will be skewed by one's own opinions.  The question is missing too much detail. I look at $400K as $16K/yr of ongoing withdrawals. How much do you make now? When the kids are all in school full time, can your wife work? $400K seems on the low side to me, especially with 3 kids. How much have you saved for college?  The $150K for your wife is also a bit low. Without a long tangent on the monetary value of the stay at home spouse, what will you spent on childcare if she passes?  Term life also has a expiration date. When my daughter was born, my wife and I got 20 year term. She is now 16, her college account fully funded, and we are semi-retired. The need for insurance is over. If one of us dies, the survivor doesn't need this big of a house, and will have more than they need to be comfortable in a downsized one. My belief is that the term value should bridge the gap to the kids getting through college and the spouse getting resettled. Too much less, I'd have left my wife at risk. Too much more, she'd be better off if I were dead. (I say that half joking, the insurance company will often limit the size policy to something reasonable.)
"What he said was:  &gt;Short term returns show ""fat tails"" in their distribution.  This means that in the short run, rare events in the stock market, like huge up and downswings, happen much more often than you would expect given the circumstances.  &gt;Long term returns converge towards a gaussian distribution.   This means that long term changes in stock prices show about the level of swings you would expect to see.  &gt;The authors think there's a connection between this and the ""long memory"" of &gt;volatility (i.e. that the autocorrelation of absolute volatilities also has a fat tail).  Auto-correlation is the idea that an event is closely related, or depends upon, a previous event.  It shouldn't be a surprise that prices can depend on previous prices.  (Contrast this with a coin toss.  Each time you toss the coin, the result is independent of any previous result.)  Normally, you would use an estimate of auto-correlation to test the randomness of your time series.  Unless you have good reason to do otherwise, you use the standard normal (or Gaussian) distribution to do so.  Some previous study, or perhaps this one, may have found that the distribution of their auto-correlation estimates for volatility (change in prices)  is not normally distributed, but rather that extreme values happen more often than would be expected (fat tail).  These guys find a correlation between the short term return fat tails, the normally  distributed long term returns, and a previous finding that the auto-correlation of volatility may have fat tails, and they think that these things could be more than simply coincidence."
Your student loan is currently costing you 0.9% interest per annum. At this rate it's lower than the last 10 years average inflation. One argument: if you repay your student loan this is effectively a 0.9% guaranteed return on every pound repaid – This is the equivalent of 1.125% on a cash savings account if you're paying basic rate tax on the interest. An opposing argument: 0.9% is lower than the last 10 years' average inflation in the UK. There are so many advantages to making a start with growing your money for the long term, due to the effects of compound returns, that you might choose to defer your loan repayments for a while and focus on building up some investments that stand a chance to beat inflation in the long term.
Actually making money as an uber driver is pretty difficult, doing it over the long term can cost more than you realize because of vehicle maintenance and gas. Very, very few uber or lyft drivers ive met have been doing it for 2+ years. Only one ive met has been doing it from the beginning.  In the beginning, it was a much better deal for drivers. Rates were much better. They have steadily declined to the point where it is noelw challenging to actually come out ahead in the long run.  I think thats what they were saying at least.
The Thule Outride 561 is a aluminium frame, super light weight roof-top option to carry your bike or two. This lovely bike carrier is especially designed for sports bikes with carbon frames. The Thule Outride 561 sports quick release wheel straps for near instant loading and unloading of your bikes.Bikes can be locked to the carrier making them difficult to steal.
I'd imagine that it's a small portion of the population that can have much of both. If one is saving a decent amount for retirement, say 10-15%, they aren't likely to have much else, aside from the house if included. For example, when I look at my 'pie chart' I get Retirement 72%, House 22%, everything else 6%.  Specific to your question, emergency funds should be just that, accessible for urgent matters, other short term needs, such as car fund, big TV fund, vacation, etc, also in non-risky cash (i.e. money funds CDs, etc) and the rest invested long term. The short need money isn't part of the long term asset allocation, to be specific.
"NYT republished a nifty infographic that shows how the S&P 500 performs over various time horizons. If you study it for a bit, you'll see that 10 percent is not likely over time that you'll earn 10 percent annually after inflation. Most people quoting the higher number are working with numbers before inflation.  The above linked chart is misleading in the following sense: it groups into five categories, who's boundaries are demarcated by percentages of interest. But we'd rather see them clustered by those percentages. For example, 6.9 percent falls into the neutral category (better than investing in fixed interest securities, but still below market average), but 7.1 falls into the ""above average"" category. The effect is that we will treat the neutral color that dominates the long term trend as being somewhere in the middle of 3-7, when I suspect that's not the case. Some day I'll probably make my own version and see how that plays out.  So that all said, if you look at the 30 year diagonal, you can see there's still quite a bit of variation in returns. Unfortunately I can't turn this into a single number for you, but grab a spreadsheet and some market data if you want one."
The bucket concept. What ever works. Some people literally use envelopes, putting cash into each category for there upcoming bills. I prefer not to mix my long term investments. My daughter's college fund is in a series of separate accounts from our retirement money. I won't criticize your CFP's comments, because advice is individual, her approach probably works well for her clients. The important thing isn't the focus on the words, but the end result. Spend less than you earn, save for each of your goals.  I removed any IRA/US reference and comment on bucket concept.
The 'standard' in such moving average crossover systems is 50/200. The numbers are essentially arbitrary as long as the long term average is greater than the short term and there is some different between the averages in terms of the smoothing they provide (i.e. comparing a 74 day MA to a 75 day MA isn't what the system is intended for) There are plenty of software programs that will let you run through many possible values for the system over historical data. I concur with the other answers in that this system/indicator alone isn't very good. However, I disagree with their blanket brushing off of technical analysis. There are many successful traders out there. The moving average cross over system is perhaps the second most primitive example of technical strategies categorized as trend following systems (buying new recent highs and selling new recent lows being the most simple). This particular system isn't very powerful because of its poor use of simple moving averages. A simple moving average is intended to smooth out data, but smoothing comes at the cost of lagging from the present. A simple moving average essentially gives you an idealized smoothing of price action for the day at that is one half of their period ago. So your 200 day simple moving average shows you an idealized smoothing of price action 100 days ago. A lot can happen in 100 days and that is why this system is far from ideal.
Which is actually not usually the case. The bonus is typically in shares which they can only cash in after so many years, to try and align the C-suite's interest with long term plans for the company.   What most screws things over is being in the share market, when management makes itself slave to the vagarities of the intraday price. There are a very few number if companies that have realized this and gone back to annual rather than quarterly reporting.
If your question is truly just  What is good growth? Is there a target return that's accepted as good?   I assumed 8% (plus transaction fees). Then I'd have to point out that the S&P has offered a CAGR of 9.77% since 1900. You can buy an S&P ETF for .05%/yr expense. If your goal is to lag the S&P by 1.7%/yr over the long term, you can use a 85/15 mix of S&P and cash, sleep well at night, and avoid wasting any time picking stocks.
Eric is right regarding the tax, i.e. ordinary income on discount, cap gain treatment on profit whether long term or short.  I would not let the tax tail wag the investing dog. If you would be a holder of the stock, hold on, if not, sell. You are considering a 10-15% delta on the profit to make the decision.  Now. I hear you say your wife hasn't worked which potentially puts you in a lower bracket this year. I wrote Topping off your bracket with a Roth Conversion which would help your tax situation long term. Simply put, you convert enough Traditional IRA (or 401(k) money) to use up some of the current bracket you are in, but not hit the next. This may not apply to you, depending on whether you have retirement funds to do this. Note - The cited article offers numbers for a single person, but illustrates the concept. See the tax table for the marginal rates that would apply to you.
Thanks for your informed perspective on this.  &gt;Twitter is a massive time suck to market on  I'm curious if you happen to know if bot presence on Twitter makes advertising on the service even less advantageous.  Do you think Instagram has a long term strategy to keep their users interacting with the service? What do you think will drive this over time? I work for a game development company (on the side) and we tend to get a lot more interactions with our posts on Instagram, but are suspicious of the actual benefit these interactions have from a marketing perspective by comparison.