vania-janet/multiturn-rag-retrieval-data huggingface dataset:
Ah, my bad! You are refering to the study's methodology, right?  In the introduction of the study, they mentioned that several countries have repealed their wealth tax, so I got the understanding that they used those instances as exogenous events from which they could draw conclusion.  Upon reading more carefully, it does indeed seem like this study did a cross sectional study over time instead.
My level of analysis is not quite that advanced. Can you share what that would show and why that particular measure is the one to use?  I've run regression on prices between the two. VIX prices have no correlation to the s&amp;p500 prices. Shouldn't true volatility result in the prices (more people putting options on the VIX during the bad times and driving that price up) correlate to the selloff that occurs within the S&amp;P500 during recessions and other events that would cause significant or minor volatility? My r2 showed no significance within a measurement of regression within Excel.  But, *gasp* I could be wrong, but would love to learn more about better ways of measurement :)
Oh, I see where the confusion is from. Amazon controls 41% of new book sales, and 41% of all book sales (including used books) are from online retailers. Those two being so similar was throwing me off.  I was meaning to reference all *new* book sales, since the dispute between hachette and Amazon has very little to do with used books as far as I'm aware. Both I and the article I referenced could have made that distinction more clear.  Again, regardless, Amazon is a big enough of a player in the market that they should not be messing with the price, availability, and visibility of a publisher's print books as negotiating tactic in ebook prices. The financial impact on Hachette doesn't seem to be as big as I initially thought, but any lost revenue in Hachette's print book sales as a result of Amazon's actions to convince them to accept their ebook terms seems unethical.
&gt; &gt; The point is, whether something constitutes agreement or not, and thus what are the legal repercussions to your actions, is a matter of opinion, and in this case I don't see any particular reason to think that your opinion about the government ought to overrule that of the rest of society. Your actions are interpreted as indicating consent for the system you're acting in, and this being so if you took the government to court on the charge that it's stealing from you you would obviously lose. So how is it an argument to just say ""but that's not an agreement in my opinion""? That's as irrelevant as me saying ""but I didn't agree to pay for this food I just ate, officer. I just walked in and asked for food and they gave it to me and I ate it. That's not an agreement, in my opinion."" &gt;"
Flyer the shit out of my local area.   Google adwords it up and boost a bunch of Facebook deals.   Then convert a lot of it into prize support for my game store to work in tandem with my local events to draw in a different crowd.
Paypal can take exactly the same legal actions against you as any creditor could -- take you to court for wilful nonpayment of debt, sell your debt to a collections agency, or anything else a business would do with a deadbeat customer. But this is a legal question, and as such off topic here.
&gt;Samsung’s revenue for the quarter was KRW 47.82 trillion, a decrease of KRW 3.87 trillion YOY  &gt;The company estimated that the stronger Korean won against major currencies in the third quarter negatively impacted operating profit by approximately KRW 700 billion, mostly on the components business side.  Just so people know what is being remarked about here.
"Is playing the lottery a wise investment? --Probably not. Is playing the lottery an investment at all? --Probably not though I'll make a remark on that further below. Does it make any sense to play the lottery in order to improve your total asset allocation? --If you follow the theory of the Black Swan, it actually might. Let me elaborate. The Black Swan theory says that events that we consider extremely improbable can have an extreme impact. So extreme, in fact, that its value would massively outweigh the combined value of all impacts of all probable events together. In statistical terms, we are speaking about events on the outer limits of the common probablity distribution, so called outliers that have a high impact. Example: If you invest $2000 on the stock market today, stay invested for 20 years, and reinvest all earnings, it is probable within a 66% confidence interval that you will have an 8 % expected return (ER) per year on average, giving you a total of roughly $9300. That's very much simplified, of course, the actual number can be very different depending on the deviations from the ER and when they happen. Now let's take the same $2000 and buy weekly lottery tickets for 20 years. For the sake of simplicity I will forgo an NPV calculation and assume one ticket costs roughly $2. If you should win, which would be an entirely improbable event, your winnings would by far outweigh your ER from investing the same amount. When making models that should be mathematically solvable, these outliers are usually not taken into consideration. Standard portfolio management (PM) theory is only working within so called confidence intervals up to 99% - everything else just wouldn't be practical. In other words, if there is not at least a 1% probability a certain outcome will happen, we'll ignore it. In practice, most analysts take even smaller confidence intervals, so they ignore even more. That's the reason, though, why no object that would fall within the realms of this outer limit is an investment in terms of the PM theory. Or at least not a recommendable one.
"There was a time when government policy was actually pretty damn smart. There were a range of ""automatic stabilizers"" that kicked in when there was a recession and they had a fast and large impact.  It wasn't until Reagan that we started to chip away at those as well as go into a perpetual debt stimulus posture. These two actions helped to prime the system for an inevitable ""large"" shock.  Even now, after one of the longest expansions in history we're STILL running a substantial deficit. And as such the appetite to expand it when the next recession hits will be diminished (as it was during the great recession when we really needed 3 trillion in stimulus spending and got less than 1)."
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Lets be honest. Credit bureaus are too integral to the financial system. Equifax wont see any consequences from any of this, and none of the executives responsible will be held accountable. The investors, executives, and government officials all know that this crisis will blow over after a few weeks and everybody will forget it happened. Hell, the mainstream media have barely even covered it, and everyone i talk to about it either doesnt care, doesnt understand the impact, or doesnt even know what Equifax is.
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&gt; Buffet could easily take the lead here by starting a company solely dedicated to paying off people's mortgages using his own money.  If he is right that would only fix a few symptoms of the problem and only for a short time.  The corrupt system would quickly overwhelm his actions.
Do you agree that few incorrect words or actions from Trump, and the whole economy can get sour?  Do you agree that few correct words and actions from Trump, in his 6 month of presidency, and the business and people build confidence and hire more?  Why do you think the stock market reach new height so much under Trump?
My problem isn't the people seeking the career advice, it's the effort they put into it before coming on the board.  I would prefer the board includes news &amp; events, interviews with financiers, and papers or questions about specific topics in finance.
My work as Shill paid off! The economy will now improve even more.  Sure! Anyone who support Trump's actions on the economy is a shill.  Hey! Maybe I am also a Nazi, because, as you know, Trump is a Nazi sympathizer.
Well I'm not going to bust out people who do illegal drugs (illegal in my state) and choose to actively violate their employment contracts.   Call it what you will.   One can also claim that stating pot has no negative impact on work performance is also anecdotal.
I keep it simple. Here's what I learned when I took Personal Financial Planning: Insurance is for low likelihood, high-impact events.
I agree. I have acquaintances that have thrown away shipping containers of shirts for events that they ended up not getting the contract for and had to dispose of the merchandise for copyright issues. These events are often print first, decide legality or find a buyer second.
"Sorry to say it this blunt, but you really have no idea about his true nature. You know what others wrote or said about him. Not him personally.  I think this whole debate is rather moronic. We have a lot of hearsay about all the ""bad"" things Jobs did. Think about your own life. Think about how people who don't like you could easily describe your actions as evil. Not even by lying, just by leaving out certain parts.  I don't know if Jobs was an asshole or a nice guy. And I don't give a shit. Why would I? I think this debate is mostly about linkbait and fanboys going at each other. (""My hero is the best!"", ""No, your hero is evil!"")  Please don't drag this idiotic debate here."
can I be prosecuted for fraud as well? Yes. It is possible in several jurisdictions (e.g. UK). You have (unwittingly) cooperated with the fraudster and arguably been at least an involved party or accessory to a crime or attempted crime.  Whether you are actually prosecuted depends on whether the fraud or attempted fraud is reported or detected, whether the prosecutors obtain evidence you knew (or should reasonably have known) that there was some criminal aspect to the events and, at least partly, on your actions once you became aware of the fraud. However I am not a lawyer and law varies from place to place considerably. According to Online Threat Alerts If someone asks you to lend him/her your bank account, debit card and PIN number for a fee, or offer to transfer money to your bank account, ask you to transfer a certain amount to another account, and then asks you to keep the rest as payment, please do not take part in such activity. This type of activity is a money laundering scam, used by criminals to trick people into unknowingly taking part in a crime that can land them in jail. I wouldn't worry too much, you have been extremely naive, foolish and negligent but what matters is how you behave now (probably).
From my Capital Markets and Institutions assignment on 2007 - 2008 Financial Crisis The subprime financial crisis that emerged in the summer of 2007 is much too intricate and interwoven to place the blame solely on one organisation or group of individuals. Each actor involved is responsible for and party to—in varying degrees—the events that transpired.
&gt; You don't see effects of monetary and fiscal policies in the first months or in rare cases even years.  The debt went up sharply in the first months of Obama's presidency. Check it.  The debt went down a bit under Trump and it's impossible that it has nothing to do with his actions.  Once Trump implement his actions, which I support, you will see SHARP decline in the debt.
"Ultimately, it's a race to the bottom. People don't want to admit this, but the US is on its way out. We had a solid thing going for us but our government went for sale/got bought out by CEOs/lobbyist who had ties to other CEOs who just wanted to maximize profits. This started a trend of always needing to make more money every year. That's unsustainable, and it affects every common person. Anyone from poor to upper middle class. That's a lot of the US's population. This has created a class gap and it's all snowballing. This country runs on a system that exists to only benefit the rich. We need heavier taxes and heavier/extreme fines on the people who manipulate the system and legislate laws that negatively impact the population. I.e: Wall Street executives who caused the 2008 crisis. Heavy penalties like having all their assets forfeited or maybe even taking away their citizenship and banning them from the US. Speaking of the 2008 crisis, people took advantage of that as well. They used that crisis to minimize employees and maximize work at the smallest cost, making the population feel ""lucky to have a job"". We haven't recovered from that, and another more catastrophic recession is on the way.   The US is a hollow shell of what it used to be."
"**Working Group on Financial Markets** The Working Group on Financial Markets (also, President's Working Group on Financial Markets, the Working Group, and colloquially the Plunge Protection Team) was created by Executive Order 12631, signed on March 18, 1988, by United States President Ronald Reagan. As established by the executive order, the Working Group has three purposes and functions: ""(a) Recognizing the goals of enhancing the integrity, efficiency, orderliness, and competitiveness of our Nation's financial markets and maintaining investor confidence, the Working Group shall identify and consider: (1) the major issues raised by the numerous studies on the events in the financial markets surrounding October 19, 1987, and any of those recommendations that have the potential to achieve the goals noted above; and (2) the actions, including governmental actions under existing laws and regulations (such as policy coordination and contingency planning), that are appropriate to carry out these recommendations. (b) The Working Group shall consult, as appropriate, with representatives of the various exchanges, clearinghouses, self-regulatory bodies, and with major market participants to determine private sector solutions wherever possible. (c) The Working Group shall report to the President initially within 60 days (and periodically thereafter) on its progress and, if appropriate, its views on any recommended legislative changes."" The Working Group consists of: The Secretary of the Treasury, or his or her designee (as Chairperson of the Working Group); The Chairperson of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, or his or her designee; The Chairperson of the Securities and Exchange Commission, or his or her designee; and The Chairperson of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or his or her designee. ^ a b ""Executive Orders"".
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"The entire idea of accountability in America has been in serious decline over the years.  Not to get on my high horse and preach, but this issue begins early on with child care and has branched it's way into our economics as well.  Kids get 9th place ribbons for races with 9 racers. Young post-college adults are struggling to survive on their own in the real world. CEO's are told to retire early as opposed to stepping down.  At the end of the day, everyone wants to credit themselves with a job well done and shift blame to others or outside forces.   However, this doesn't mean that there's no position left in the US with 'accountability.' For instance, the Fed Chairman has to be correct on their position or the entire economy can be destroyed in the process.   So what do we do instead? Those positions are the ones we blame for what's happening around us. So naturally, their response is to leave as delicately and unnoticed as possible.  If you ask me, those people at Equifax should be in jail. Not because of the hack, but because they waited so long to let everyone know. Stepping down and retiring shouldn't  mean they get away from it, the same way declaring bankruptcy doesn't mean I get away from my student loans.  If people started taking accountability for their own actions, America would be much more healthy in my opinion.  But then again, at the end of the day it is just my opinion, so you're free to believe whatever else you like. Cause you know what they say, 'opinions are like a**holes, everyone has one."""
It's basic financial responsibility.  If you can't afford the risk of something, either don't do it- or pay the consequences.  The risk of unsafe sex was children.  She couldn't afford that risk, much less two of them, so now she is paying for her actions.  She was a perfectly capable adult with the ability to make decisions and you think since she is in a crappy situation, it is somehow not her fault.
That's a pretty simplistic way of looking at it. Sure it impacted front line workers without degrees the hardest, but the recession impacted everyone regardless of position. Plenty of bankers were laid off and many more left due to the fear of new regulations negatively impacting their sources of income.
What Sculley did have though a talent and an abiding interest in technology and certainly understood it far more thoroughly than ""some caramel-colored sugar-water marketing guy"" (let's assume for a moment his TV design was complete crap and unoriginal... how many kids his age do you think were even coming up with crappy, unoriginal TV designs, and how many of those went on to become marketing guys?). He could reason and understand about technology, its potential, and its impact in a way that a lot of CEO's at the time couldn't. That ability to hear all the technical ideas (and I'd really love to see the part where he claimed credit for these inventions... because I sure haven't noticed that from *any* of Apple's CEO's before, even Jobs) in development by a multitude of others and synthesize a realistic model of how the market would all come together with enough certainty to act on it is exactly what most CEO's suck at. If you want to talk about BS mythologies, let's talk about the notion that the only CEO Apple had that understood technology was Steve Jobs."
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This will probably end up as a case study in business schools on what not to do.  They pull the ads after pressure from a bigoted, xenophobic evangelical group in Florida, and then issue a couple of confusing press releases trying to explain their actions.
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This is my biggest frustration with MS. They are constantly changing the interfaces for windows and office - possibly passing the test for being a simple experience for common activities. But they always seem to disregard the existing user actions people are used to, and making more complex tasks extremely cumbersome vs before.  They just don't get it when it comes to UI.
"I feel like it's borderline. Like if you just added a sprinkle of intelligence into each of those actions, you could look smart. For instance like the comment above talks about inverting the fraction ""So you're saying that 3 out of 4 people aren't clicking the button."" You can guarantee some people are going to start debating that and pointing fingers, etc."
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You can go to Goodwill or a used book store in town and find a college level textbook  Economics courses are usually broken down into General Econ, Micro Econ and Macro Econ...  after those you can into more focus aspects of economics like Economies of Scale and history..  You can look up more about opportunity costs, supply and demand, guns and butter.. that's what I remember from my General Econ courses.   --- Also, this sub doesn't really have anything to do with Economics as far as academics goes.  It's more about the current events of economic policy.
"&gt; **give me a specific ""instability"" or ""expense"" that Global Warming may cause. Just try...**  &gt; **I asked you before, and I notice you did not reply: Is Trump a Nazi or alt-Right sympathizer? What ACTIONS by Trump you do not like?**"
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He acts as an US agent. What economics works in US now will not work for India. We have to look at how US had economics in the early 1900s or post Depression since that is the point India is in. Given that, I doubt this guy has the capacity to go with Modi way and stand up against international banks. In general that is what my grip with Statistics and economics in general. It is your vintage armchair knowledge with little net positive impact on day to day lives of the average citizen.
Good pull on the Kochs. I didn't know that. This is the year that permanently changed my view of the press. I'm starting to go back and reevaluate past events and see how much was propaganda. Excellent BBC series that started me really thinking: [Century of Self](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnPmg0R1M04)