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Sea Level Rise is Accelerating
Sea Level Rise is Accelerating

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Sea Level Rise is Accelerating

1992 - 2014PNG

Global sea level rise has been accelerating in recent decades, according to a new study based on 25 years of NASA and European satellite data. This acceleration has been driven mainly by increased ice melting in Greenland and Antarctica, and it has the potential to double the total sea level rise projected by 2100, according to lead author Steve Nerem, a scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and the University of Colorado.
If things continue to change at the observed pace, sea level will rise 65 centimeters (26 inches) by 2100, enough to cause significant problems for coastal cities. The team—comprised of scientists from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, the University of Colorado, the University of South Florida, and Old Dominion University—recently published their work in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
“This is almost certainly a conservative estimate,” said Nerem, who is a member of NASA’s Sea Level Change team. “Our extrapolation assumes that sea level continues to change in the future as it has over the last 25 years. Given the large changes we are seeing in the ice sheets today, that is not likely.”
Rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere increase the temperature of air and water, which causes sea level to rise in two ways.
The Waters are Rising on NASA’s Shores
U.S. Global Change Research Program (2014) National Climate Assessment: Sea Level Rise. Accessed August 14, 2015.

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NASA’s Front Porch View of Rising Seas
The nation’s problem is also NASA’s problem: Half to two-thirds of our space infrastructure and assets stand within 5 meters of sea level.

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Sea Level Rise is Accelerating
The acceleration has been driven mainly by increased ice melting in Greenland and Antarctica, and it has the potential to double the total sea level rise projected by 2100.

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Tracking 30 Years of Sea Level Rise
Global mean sea level has risen 101 millimeters (3.98 inches) since 1992, and it continues to do so at 3.9 mm (0.15 inches) per year.

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The Rising Sea Level

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Sea Level Rise is Accelerating
In 2018, NASA will launch two new satellite missions that will be critical to improving future sea level projections: the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission, a partnership with GeoForschungsZentrum (Germany) and Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2). 
NASA Scientific Visualization Studio images by Kel Elkins, using data from JASON-1, JASON-2, and TOPEX/Poseidon. Story by Katie Weeman, CIRES, and Patrick Lynch, NASA GSFC. Edited by Mike Carlowicz.

The acceleration has been driven mainly by increased ice melting in Greenland and Antarctica, and it has the potential to double the total sea level rise projected by 2100.
Image of the Day for February 20, 2018

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JASON-1
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References & Resources

Nerem, R.S. et al. (2018) Climate-change-driven accelerated sea level rise detected in the altimeter era. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
NASA Earth Observatory (2015, August 26) Sea Level Rise Hits Home at NASA.

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The Rising Sea Level

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NASA’s Front Porch View of Rising Seas
The nation’s problem is also NASA’s problem: Half to two-thirds of our space infrastructure and assets stand within 5 meters of sea level.

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Regional Patterns of Sea Level Change 1993-2007

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Discovering the Charlotte Whale
The unexpected discovery of a whale skeleton hundreds of miles from the sea and more than 200 feet above sea level in 1849 is a reminder of how much sea level can change.

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The Waters are Rising on NASA’s Shores
What they both show is that the rate of sea level rise is faster now than at any time in the past 2,000 years, and that rate has doubled in the past two decades.
A rise of a few inches over a few decades does not sound like much. But sea level does not rise evenly; it piles up more in some places because of natural wind and current patterns. And turbulence matters. Imagine a bathtub with a child sloshing around in it. Waves can roll up one side and then the other, sometimes splashing over the brim. The higher the flat-water line (sea level), the greater the chance that the water will slosh out of the basin when it is stirred up by storms and winds.
Sea level also matters in a horizontal direction. A rule of thumb is that 1 inch of vertical change in sea level translates into 100 inches of horizontal loss on a flat beach or marsh. In this way, a little bit of sea level rise can translate into a lot of water moving inland when there are storms or abnormally high tides. “Sea level is important because it gradually moves the high-tide line farther up the beach and closer to buildable land,” said John Jaeger, a coastal geologist from the University of Florida. “It also allows storm surges to penetrate farther inland.”

January 28, 2015JPEG

The high-tide line has been moving landward for some time at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in Florida. NASA’s most famous center covers more than 66 square miles (170 square kilometers) and holds about 20 percent of the agency’s constructed assets. Most of KSC is built on coastal marshland that stands about 5 to 10 feet above sea level. Conservative climate models project that the seas off Kennedy will rise 5 to 8 inches by the 2050s, and 9 to 15 inches by the 2080s. If the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica continue to melt as quickly as current measurements indicate, those numbers could become 21 to 24 inches by the 2050s and 43 to 49 inches by the 2080s.
“We consider sea-level rise and climate change to be urgent,” said Nancy Bray, spaceport integration and services director for Kennedy.
Sea Level Rise is Accelerating
“This is almost certainly a conservative estimate,” said Nerem, who is a member of NASA’s Sea Level Change team. “Our extrapolation assumes that sea level continues to change in the future as it has over the last 25 years. Given the large changes we are seeing in the ice sheets today, that is not likely.”
Rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere increase the temperature of air and water, which causes sea level to rise in two ways. First, warmer water expands, and this “thermal expansion” of the ocean has contributed about half of the 7 centimeters (2.8 inches) of global mean sea level rise that has been observed over the past 25 years, Nerem said. Second, the water from melting land ice flows into the ocean, which also increases sea level around the world.
The rate of sea level rise has risen from about 2.5 millimeters (0.1 inch) per year in the 1990s to about 3.4 millimeters (0.13 inches) per year today. These increases have been measured by satellite altimeters since 1992, including the TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3 missions, which have been jointly managed by NASA, France’s Centre national d'etudes spatiales (CNES), the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The maps on this page depict the changes in sea level observed by those satellites between 1992 and 2014.

1992 - 2014PNG

“The TOPEX/Poseidon/Jason altimetry missions have been essentially providing the equivalent of a global network of nearly half a million accurate tide gauges, providing sea surface height information every 10 days for over 25 years,” said Brian Beckley of NASA Goddard. “As this climate data record approaches three decades, the fingerprints of Greenland and Antarctic land-based ice loss are now being revealed in the global and regional mean sea level estimates.”
Even with a 25-year data record, it can be challenging to detect acceleration. Episodes like volcanic eruptions can create variability; for instance, the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 decreased global mean sea level just before the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite launch.
Collection - Sea Level Rise
Collection - Sea Level Rise

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Sea Level Rise

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Tracking 30 Years of Sea Level Rise
Global mean sea level has risen 101 millimeters (3.98 inches) since 1992, and it continues to do so at 3.9 mm (0.15 inches) per year.
Published Aug 11, 2022
 

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Zuiderzee Works
Where the Netherlands meets the North Sea, there is an impressive confluence of natural and man-made features.
Published Sep 6, 2021
 

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The Known Unknowns of Sea Level Rise
The globe is warming, ice is melting, but that doesn't mean that an ocean will be returning to Vermont anytime soon.
Published Aug 3, 2021
 

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Anticipating Future Sea Levels
While scientists have grown more confident about projections of sea level rise for the next few decades, many competing factors make it hard to see far into the coastal future.
Published Jul 8, 2021
 

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New Ocean Data Flowing In
Collection - Sea Level Rise
Published Aug 3, 2021
 

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Anticipating Future Sea Levels
While scientists have grown more confident about projections of sea level rise for the next few decades, many competing factors make it hard to see far into the coastal future.
Published Jul 8, 2021
 

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New Ocean Data Flowing In
Datasets from the Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite will build upon three decades of sea level measurements.
Published Jun 22, 2021
 

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Discovering the Charlotte Whale
The unexpected discovery of a whale skeleton hundreds of miles from the sea and more than 200 feet above sea level in 1849 is a reminder of how much sea level can change.
Published May 19, 2021
 

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As Jakarta Grows, So Do the Water Issues
Sinking land, rising seas, and rainfall-driven floods pose big problems for Indonesia’s largest city.
Published May 12, 2021
 

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Saint Petersburg Keeps the Sea at Bay
A city full of cultural, historical, and architectural riches has gone to great lengths to protect itself from floods.
Published May 10, 2021
 

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Preparing for Rising Seas in the Maldives
A new artificial island near Malé could be a destination for people trying to escape rising waters on lower-lying islands.
Published Apr 9, 2021
 

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Rising Seas in Charleston
Sea level rise and new development are on a collision course in South Carolina lowcountry.
Published Jan 11, 2021
 

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Reshaping Coastal Louisiana
While there are efforts to reinforce its beaches and marshes, some of Barataria Bay is slowly slipping away.
Published Jan 4, 2021
 

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Taking a Measure of Sea Level Rise: Ice Height
Taking a Measure of Sea Level Rise: Ice Height

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Taking a Measure of Sea Level Rise: Ice Height

 

Editor’s Note—This article is one in a series about how NASA and other science institutions measure and monitor sea level rise. Find the other stories here.
Just like forests can grow and shrink over time, so do glaciers, ice shelves, and ice sheets. Sometimes, ice grows through snow accumulation. Other times, it loses mass from melting or from calving icebergs. With modern satellites, scientists can measure and monitor these gains and losses with ever-increasing precision.
One key measurement for assessing the health of these frozen reservoirs is ice height, which scientists use to calculate mass changes over time. Researchers combine ice height measurements with other observations to determine the thickness and volume of a piece of ice, which is then converted into mass.
In recent decades, Earth’s ice-covered regions have been losing more mass than they are gaining. Rising global temperatures are melting glaciers and ice sheets, reducing their thickness, length, and mass. The water from that melted ice flows into the ocean and adds to its volume: Scientists estimate that every 360 gigatons of added melt water raises global sea level by one millimeter.
NASA Visible Earth - Home
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Sea Level Rise is Accelerating

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Sea Level Rise is Accelerating
Published February 20, 2018
The acceleration has been driven mainly by increased ice melting in Greenland and Antarctica, and it has the potential to double the total sea level rise projected by 2100.
Related images:

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720 x 545
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Sea Level Rise is Accelerating

720 x 545
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Sea Level Rise is Accelerating
Published February 20, 2018
The acceleration has been driven mainly by increased ice melting in Greenland and Antarctica, and it has the potential to double the total sea level rise projected by 2100.
Related images:

720 x 425
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5911 x 2956
 17 MB - PNG

2201 x 1295
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The Decline of Lake Kariba

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The Decline of Lake Kariba
Published February 12, 2016
Drought has struck a huge reservoir on the border Zambia and Zimbabwe, reducing the hydro power supply from Kariba dam .
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New Seafloor Map Helps Scientists Find New Features 

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New Seafloor Map Helps Scientists Find New Features 
Published January 13, 2016
The recent discovery of the Mammerickx Microplate was made possible by new satellite-derived maps of the ocean floor. 
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New Seafloor Map Helps Scientists Find New Features
The Waters are Rising on NASA’s Shores
That’s a much higher water line for Mother Nature to build upon when future hurricanes blow in.
Click here to read more of this story.
NASA Earth Observatory images by Joshua Stevens and Jesse Allen, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey and sea level rise data from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization and NOAA. Astronaut photograph ISS024-E-10403 provided by the ISS Crew Earth Observations experiment, Johnson Space Center. Caption by Mike Carlowicz.

Global sea level rise poses very local challenges for the many NASA centers situated on U.S. coasts.
Image of the Day for September 30, 2015

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Landsat 8 — OLI
Model

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References & Resources

Agence France Presse (2014, May 20) Rising Sea Levels Are Destroying NASA’s Multi-Billion Dollar Facilities. Accessed August 14, 2015.
Florida Today (2015, June 18) Erosion threatens iconic NASA launch pads. Accessed August 14, 2015.
Reuters (2014, September 4) Water’s edge: the crisis of rising sea levels. Accessed August 14, 2015.
Risky Business Project (2014, June) The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the U.S. Accessed August 14, 2015.
Rosenzweig, C. et al. (2014) Enhancing Climate Resilience at NASA Centers: A Collaboration between Science and Stewardship. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95, 1351–1363.
U.S. Global Change Research Program (2014) National Climate Assessment: Sea Level Rise. Accessed August 14, 2015.

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Image

NASA’s Front Porch View of Rising Seas
The nation’s problem is also NASA’s problem: Half to two-thirds of our space infrastructure and assets stand within 5 meters of sea level.

Image of the Day
Water

Image

Sea Level Rise is Accelerating
Collection - Sea Level Rise
Image

Rising Seas in Charleston
Sea level rise and new development are on a collision course in South Carolina lowcountry.
Published Jan 11, 2021
 

Image of the Day
Land
Human Presence

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Reshaping Coastal Louisiana
While there are efforts to reinforce its beaches and marshes, some of Barataria Bay is slowly slipping away.
Published Jan 4, 2021
 

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Water
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Sea Level Watcher Takes Flight
Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich will extend a nearly 30-year continuous dataset on sea surface height.
Published Nov 24, 2020
 

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Isthmus of Taravao, Tahiti
This island’s rugged topography and dense rainforest has led most of its inhabitants to live along the coastline.
Published Nov 7, 2020
 

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Taking a Measure of Sea Level Rise: Ocean Altimetry
The ocean is lumpy and sloshes around its basins for natural reasons. But it is also rising, slowly and steadily.
Published Nov 5, 2020
 

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Taking a Measure of Sea Level Rise: Land Motion
Earth’s surface may seem motionless most of the time, but an array of measurements show that natural and human-caused processes cause coastal land to rise and fall.
Published Nov 5, 2020
 

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Water
Unique Imagery
Snow and Ice
Remote Sensing

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Taking a Measure of Sea Level Rise: Ice Height
Scientists project ice losses from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets will play a large part in sea level rise in the upcoming century.
Published Nov 5, 2020
 

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Unique Imagery
Snow and Ice
Remote Sensing

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Taking a Measure of Sea Level Rise: Gravimetry
Scientists measure ice’s gravitational pull on a pair of satellites, allowing them to estimate ice loss and its contribution to sea level rise.
Published Nov 5, 2020
 

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Unique Imagery