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Climate Change - NYSDEC
Climate Change - NYSDEC

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Global Warming
Satellite measurements show warming in the troposphere (lower atmosphere, green line) but cooling in the stratosphere (upper atmosphere, red line). This vertical pattern is consistent with global warming due to increasing greenhouse gases, but inconsistent with warming from natural causes. (Graph by Robert Simmon, based on data from Remote Sensing Systems, sponsored by the NOAA Climate and Global Change Program.)

The stratosphere gets warmer during solar maxima because the ozone layer absorbs ultraviolet light; more ultraviolet light during solar maxima means warmer temperatures. Ozone depletion explains the biggest part of the cooling of the stratosphere over recent decades, but it can’t account for all of it. Increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in the troposphere and stratosphere together contribute to cooling in the stratosphere.

How Much More Will Earth Warm?
To further explore the causes and effects of global warming and to predict future warming, scientists build climate models—computer simulations of the climate system. Climate models are designed to simulate the responses and interactions of the oceans and atmosphere, and to account for changes to the land surface, both natural and human-induced. They comply with fundamental laws of physics—conservation of energy, mass, and momentum—and account for dozens of factors that influence Earth’s climate.
Though the models are complicated, rigorous tests with real-world data hone them into powerful tools that allow scientists to explore our understanding of climate in ways not otherwise possible. By experimenting with the models—removing greenhouse gases emitted by the burning of fossil fuels or changing the intensity of the Sun to see how each influences the climate—scientists use the models to better understand Earth’s current climate and to predict future climate.
The models predict that as the world consumes ever more fossil fuel, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise, and Earth’s average surface temperature will rise with them. Based on a range of plausible emission scenarios, average surface temperatures could rise between 2°C and 6°C by the end of the 21st century.

Model simulations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimate that Earth will warm between two and six degrees Celsius over the next century, depending on how fast carbon dioxide emissions grow.
Understanding Climate Change
Understanding Climate Change

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 Climate Change Research at JPL
 JPL scientists study Earth’s changing climate, focusing on four broad themes: icy regions; the movement of water between sea, air, and land; greenhouse gas emissions and absorption; and our world’s ecosystems.Exploring the World’s IceEarth’s ice lies in the most remote parts of the globe. Using technologies that also help us explore other planets, JPL studies Earth’s land ice.If all the land ice on Earth melted, it would raise sea level around 260 feet (80 meters), so understanding how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are changing is important to predicting future sea level. Changing sea level affects our port cities and coastlines, and the quality of groundwater near the coasts, where most of the world’s human population lives.Following the WaterUsing radar, heat, and moisture-sensing instruments in space and on aircraft, JPL studies the movement of water from the land and seas into the atmosphere and back — the Earth’s water cycle. Life depends on water, and our civilization depends on knowing when and where rain and snow will fall.
Global Warming
The impact of climate change on the land carbon cycle is extremely complex, but on balance, land carbon sinks will become less efficient as plants reach saturation, where they can no longer take up additional carbon dioxide, and other limitations on growth occur, and as land starts to add more carbon to the atmosphere from warming soil, fires, and insect infestations. This will result in a faster increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide and more rapid global warming. In some climate models, carbon cycle feedbacks from both land and ocean add more than a degree Celsius to global temperatures by 2100.
Emission Scenarios
Scientists predict the range of likely temperature increase by running many possible future scenarios through climate models. Although some of the uncertainty in climate forecasts comes from imperfect knowledge of climate feedbacks, the most significant source of uncertainty in these predictions is that scientists don’t know what choices people will make to control greenhouse gas emissions.
The higher estimates are made on the assumption that the entire world will continue using more and more fossil fuel per capita, a scenario scientists call “business-as-usual.” More modest estimates come from scenarios in which environmentally friendly technologies such as fuel cells, solar panels, and wind energy replace much of today’s fossil fuel combustion.
It takes decades to centuries for Earth to fully react to increases in greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide, among other greenhouse gases, will remain in the atmosphere long after emissions are reduced, contributing to continuing warming. In addition, as Earth has warmed, much of the excess energy has gone into heating the upper layers of the ocean. Like a hot water bottle on a cold night, the heated ocean will continue warming the lower atmosphere well after greenhouse gases have stopped increasing.
These considerations mean that people won’t immediately see the impact of reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Even if greenhouse gas concentrations stabilized today, the planet would continue to warm by about 0.6°C over the next century because of greenhouses gases already in the atmosphere.
See Earth’s Big Heat Bucket, Correcting Ocean Cooling, and Climate Q&A: If we immediately stopped emitting greenhouse gases, would global warming stop? to learn more about the ocean heat and global warming.

How Will Global Warming Change Earth?
The impact of increased surface temperatures is significant in itself.
Climate Change
However, long-term solutions to climate change will also require stronger action by larger entities, such as governments and corporations, around the country and the world. Scientists say there is still time to fix our climate change emergency, but only if we act immediately, decisively and comprehensively.
That means using every means at our disposal — including expanding, improving and preserving our precious open space.

 

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April | 2012 | Terra
I have helped initiate a rapid response program using data from MODIS and AVHRR to trigger emergency ASTER observations of volcanoes and other natural disasters.  In addition to the satellite image analysis, the tools employed include laboratory-based infrared spectroscopy, field-based TIR imaging and differential global positioning system (dGPS) data collection. I have focused on the multispectral thermal IR data of ASTER in order to map composition and micron-scale roughness of volcanic surfaces. No other sensor can capture this information, which is important to a better understanding of the activity conditions present at active lava domes and flows.
Why is the study of volcanoes important?
MR: Although volcanoes do not kill as many people as earthquakes or large tropical storms (more than 70,000 deaths from volcanic eruptions occurred last century compared to more than that in just one large earthquake), there are several important reasons to study them. The first is hazard mitigation – over a half a billion people live directly in harms way of typical volcanic activity. This number grows significantly when one considers the much larger (but more rare) eruptions that have happened over time. The second reason is that volcanism is a primary geologic process that has operated throughout most of the Earth’s history (along with impact cratering). For a geologist, studying volcanoes can lead to important insights into the solid Earth processes that have operated over geologic time and are ongoing at depth under every active volcano.
What are some effects of volcanic eruptions on the global climate?
MR: I do not study the climate aspects of volcanic eruptions directly since I am more interested in the geology. However volcanoes can produce large amounts of carbon dioxide, water, and sulfur dioxide as well as ash.  The first two are major greenhouse gases, which can impact climate change. Volcanic ash can cause major disruptions to air traffic (as was seen in Iceland in 2010), can render lands around the volcano unusable for decades, be a major irritant to human health, and can cause structures to fail due to the weight of the ash.
Volcano eruptions disperse gas, liquids, and particles into the lower atmosphere.  One of the expellants is sulfur dioxide (SO2.)  What are the effects on the environment?
Climate Change - NASA Science
Climate Change - NASA Science

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Climate Variability and Change Focus Area - NASA Science
Center, Global Hydrology and Climate CenterInteragency and International PartnershipsClimate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS)Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC)Group on Earth Observations (GEO)Interagency Ocean Observation Committee (IOOC)Interagency on Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC)NOAA Climate Observing System Council U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGRCP)Contact CVCNadya Vinogradova ShifferClimate Variability and Change Focus Area LeadPhysical Oceanography Program ManagerContact | BioThorsten MarkusCryospheric Sciences Program ManagerContact | BioDavid Considine*Modeling, Analysis and Prediction Program Manager*currently on detail as Rotating Deputy Associate Director of Research for Weather and ClimateContact | BioKaitlin HarbeckCryospheric Sciences Senior Support ScientistContact | BioJessica HausmanPhysical Oceanography Support ScientistContact | BioReturn to topThe National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA explores the unknown in air and space, innovates for the benefit of humanity, and inspires the world through discovery.About NASA's MissionJoin UsHomeNews & EventsMultimediaNASA+MissionsHumans in SpaceEarth & ClimateThe Solar SystemThe UniverseScienceAeronauticsTechnologyLearning ResourcesAbout NASANASA en EspañolFollow NASAMore NASA Social AccountsNASA NewslettersSitemapFor MediaPrivacy PolicyFOIANo FEAR ActOffice of the IGBudget & Annual ReportsAgency Financial ReportsContact NASAAccessibilityPage Last Updated:3 months agoPage Editor:SMD Content EditorsResponsible NASA Official for Science:Dana Bolles
Global Warming
Sea levels are predicted to go up between 18 and 59 cm (7.1 and 23 inches) over the next century, though the increase could be greater if ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica melt more quickly than predicted. Higher sea levels will erode coastlines and cause more frequent flooding. (Graph ©2007 Robert Rohde.)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that sea levels will rise between 0.18 and 0.59 meters (0.59 to 1.9 feet) by 2099 as warming sea water expands, and mountain and polar glaciers melt. These sea level change predictions may be underestimates, however, because they do not account for any increases in the rate at which the world’s major ice sheets are melting. As temperatures rise, ice will melt more quickly. Satellite measurements reveal that the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are shedding about 125 billion tons of ice per year—enough to raise sea levels by 0.35 millimeters (0.01 inches) per year. If the melting accelerates, the increase in sea level could be significantly higher.
Impacting Ecosystems
More importantly, perhaps, global warming is already putting pressure on ecosystems, the plants and animals that co-exist in a particular climate zone, both on land and in the ocean. Warmer temperatures have already shifted the growing season in many parts of the globe. The growing season in parts of the Northern Hemisphere became two weeks longer in the second half of the 20th century. Spring is coming earlier in both hemispheres.
This change in the growing season affects the broader ecosystem. Migrating animals have to start seeking food sources earlier. The shift in seasons may already be causing the lifecycles of pollinators, like bees, to be out of synch with flowering plants and trees. This mismatch can limit the ability of both pollinators and plants to survive and reproduce, which would reduce food availability throughout the food chain.
See Buzzing About Climate Change to read more about how the lifecycle of bees is synched with flowering plants.
Warmer temperatures also extend the growing season. This means that plants need more water to keep growing throughout the season or they will dry out, increasing the risk of failed crops and wildfires.
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Temperature Extremes 2023
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