vania-janet/multiturn-rag-retrieval-data huggingface dataset:
All websites pull Statement data line by line from central databases.  They get to choose which line items to pull, and sometimes they get the plus/minus wrong and sometimes the Statements they recreate don't add up.  Nothing you can do about it.  All the sites have problems.  I personally think the best is Morningstar eg http://financials.morningstar.com/income-statement/is.html?t=POT&region=can&culture=en-US Use these summary sites at the start of your decision process, but later confirm the facts straight from the Edgar or Sedar for Cdn companies http://www.sedar.com/search/search_form_pc_en.htm
The Art of Short Selling by Kathryn Stanley providers for many case studies about what kind of opportunities to look for from a fundamental analysis perspective. Typically things you can look for are financing terms that are not very favorable (expensive interest payments) as well as other constrictions on cash flow, arbitrary decisions by management (poor management), and dilution that doesn't make sense (usually another product of poor management). From a quantitative analysis perspective, you can gain insight by looking at the credit default swap rate history, if the company is listed in that market. The things that affect a CDS spread are different than what immediately affects share prices. Some market participants trade DOOMs over Credit Default Swaps, when they are betting on a company's insolvency. But looking at large trades in the options market isn't indicative of anything on its own, but you can use that information to help confirm your opinion. You can certainly jump on a trend using bad headlines, but typically by the time it is headline news, the majority of the downward move in the share price has already happened, or the stock opened lower because the news came outside of market hours. You have to factor in the short interest of the company, if the short interest is high then it will be very easy to squeeze the shorts resulting in a rally of share prices, the opposite of what you want. A short squeeze doesn't change the fundamental or quantitative reasons you wanted to short. The technical analysis should only be used to help you decide your entry and exit price ranges amongst an otherwise random walk. The technical rules you created sound like something a very basic program or stock screener might be able to follow, but it doesn't tell you anything, you will have to do research in the company's public filings yourself.
"Beta is the correct answer.  It is THE measure of the risk relationship of a stock with the broad market. R squared is incorrect unless you mean something very odd by ""co-efficiency.""  A stock that goes up each time the market goes down has very low co-efficiency (negative risk as you have defined it) but very high R squared.  A stock that goes the same direction as the market but twice as far (with a lot of noise) has a very low R squared but contains a lot of market risk.  A stock that always goes in the same direction as the market but only a 100th as far is very safe but has a very high R squared. You can calculate beta using ""slope"" in excel or doing a regression, but the easiest thing is just to look up the beta in yahoo finance or elsewhere.  You don't need to calculate it for yourself normally."
"To expand on the above, go to the ""Investor Relations"" part of the website if they're public, and take a look at how they explain themselves to their shareholders. You'll learn a lot very quickly about everything you'd need for the interview."
"Yes it is.  The most effective form of honesty is to properly set expectations up front, and get good at delivering on those promises over time.  Don't confuse ""Building the best product"" with honesty.  Building the product that people want, the product that people can trust is often better than waiting for ""the best.""  Dependability is often more valuable."
The only information that is even CURRENT is the price. Thus, my ultimate conclusive point is, you can't based your stock picks on criteria like this because it's based on past information and current stock price, and the current stock price is based on the markets opinion of relative future performance. The only way to make a good stock pick is understand the business, understand its market, and possibly understand world economics as it pertains to that market and business. You can use various criteria as an initial filter to find companies and investigate them, but which criteria you use is entirely your preference. You might invest only in profitable companies (ones that make money and probably pay regular dividends), thus excluding something like an oil exploration company, which will just lose money, and lose it, and lose some more, forever... unless it hits the jackpot, in which case you might suddenly find yourself sitting on a huge profit. It's a question of risk and preference. Regarding your concern for false data. Google defines the Return on investment (TTM) (%) as: Trailing twelve month Income after taxes divided by the average (Total Long-Term Debt + Long-Term Liabilities + Shareholders Equity), expressed as a percentage. If you really think they have it wrong you could contact them, but it's probably correct for whatever past data or last annual financial results it's based on."
Somewhat.  The balance sheet will include liabilities which as Michael Kjörling points out would tell you the totals for the debt which would often be loans or bonds depending on one's preferred terminology.  However, if the company's loan was shorter than the length of the quarter, then it may not necessarily be reported is something to point out as the data is accurate for a specific point in time only. My suggestion is that if you have a particular company that you want to review that you take a look at the SEC filing in full which would have a better breakdown of everything in terms of assets, liabilities, etc. than the a summary page.  http://investor.apple.com/ would be where you could find a link to the 10-Q that has a better breakdown though it does appear that Apple doesn't have any bonds outstanding.  There are some companies that may have little debt due to being so profitable in their areas of business.
Ugh. Please don't use Damode's models. Guy is brilliant but his model are absolute shit and super annoying to audit. Much better to read the theory and build his shit from scratch in a way that effects the theory. Then use his models to check that your output is in the right ballpark. You will get a MUCH better grasp of modeling and of valuation this way.
I used to go on recruiting trips when I was in consulting and got a great look at the process and what HR values. Presentation: wear a white shirt with a mild patterned tie (dark blue or dark red with grey are good colors). Prep: Study the company's website and read the first part of their 10-Q financial report. Have a leather portfolio with a pen, notepad for notes, and 10 copies of your resume. Attitude: Show enthusiasm about the company and position. You'll want to have questions for the interviewers, even if you know the answer, and can ask different people the same question. Good luck and have confidence!
"Alright, a few things:  1. The ""crisis"" is likely a recession type thing. There are arguments to be made for avoiding debt (less ""hurt"" from a downturn in sales), or for taking on the debt (rack up the sales early, take the hit, then press on). I'm in the latter category; everyone's going to take a hit, not everyone is going to have the inertia from previous rounds to sustain themselves through it.  2. ""In that case I might just hold off until before that date..."" This only makes sense if you know exactly when it's going to happen. If you don't, then you're making a large gamble. Even if you do, you're sacrificing growth for security.   3. The balance sheet shouldn't have *too* much of an effect. Debt loads will. Debt coverage and interest coverage will.   4. Debt is a tool. It amplifies losses AND gains. A company with a lot of debt and a good sales year will outperform a company with no debt and an excellent sales year. You're in a closed-system of competition. You need to be hyper-aggressive.  5. **""There are only two things a company does: innovation and marketing. The rest are all cost.""**  6. Assuming this is a manufacturing type of company (i.e. Capsim), pay attention to your R&amp;D acutely, max out your marketing budget, and pay close attention to your capacity and production. Read the rules to ensure they make sense, and make a model/spreadsheet if it makes sense. Coordinate with team members rigorously.   7. **Win.**"
"In my company, we have custom Z reports + APO + Tableu + BW + BI + Cognos + Fico reporting tools + Hyperion + others.  ... and there's still no company wide definition for Net Sales versus Gross Sales.  This is all to show you that too many ""finance"" people who don't know much about finance are relying on tools to do the work for them... and each tool gives different numbers.  So I love it when I (in IT management) get called to explain why tool A gave a different number from tool B and when I find out, usually that both tool A and B have it wrong, you should see their faces."
So, the price-earnings ratio is price over earnings, easy enough. But obviously earnings are not static. In the case of a growing company, the earnings will be higher in the future. There will be extra earnings, above and beyond what the stock has right now. You should consider the future earnings in your estimate of what the company is worth now. One snag: Those extra earnings are future money. Future-money is an interesting thing, it's actually worth less than present-money- because of things like inflation, but also opportunity cost.  So if you bought $100 in money that you'll have 20 years from now, you'd expect to pay less than $100. (The US government can sell you that money. It's called a Series EE Savings Bond and it would cost you $50. I think. Don't quote me on that, though, ask the Treasury.) So you can't compare future money with present-money directly, and you can't just add those dollars to the earnings . You need to compute a discount. That's what discounted cash-flow analysis is about: figuring out the future cash flow, and then discounting the future figuring out what it's worth now. The actual way you use the discount rate in your formula is a little scarier than simple division, though, because it involves discounting each year's earnings (in this case, someone has asserted a discount of 11% a year, and five years of earnings growth of 10%). Wikipedia gives us the formula for the value of the future cash flow:  essentially adding all the future cash flows together, and then discounting them by a (compounded) rate. Please forgive me for not filling this formula out; I'm here for theory, not math. :)
"This is several questions wrapped together: How can I diplomatically see the company's financial information? How strong a claim does a stockholder or warrantholder have to see the company's financials? What information do I need to know about the company financials before deciding to buy in? I'll start with the easier second question (which is quasi implicit). Stockholders typically have inspection rights. For example, Delaware General Corporate Law § 220 gives stockholders the right to inspect and copy company financial information, subject to certain restrictions. Check the laws and corporate code of your company's state of incorporation to find the specific inspection right. If it is an LLC or partnership, then the operating agreement usually controls and there may be no inspection rights. If you have no corporate stock, then of course you have no statutory inspection rights. My (admittedly incomplete) understanding is that warrantholders generally have no inspection rights unless somehow contracted for. So if you vest as a corporate stockholder, it'll be your right to see the financials—which may make even a small purchase valuable to you as a continuing employee with the right to see the financials. Until then, this is probably a courtesy and not their obligation. The first question is not easy to answer, except to say that it's variable and highly personal for small companies. Some people interpret it as prying or accusatory, the implication being that the founders are either hiding something or that you need to examine really closely the mouth of their beautiful gift horse. Other people may be much cooler about the question, understanding that small companies are risky and you're being methodical. And in some smaller companies, they may believe giving you the expenses could make office life awkward. If you approach it professionally, directly, and briefly (do not over-explain yourself) with the responsible accountant or HR person (if any), then I imagine it should not be a problem for them to give some information. Conversely, you may feel comfortable enough to review a high-level summary sheet with a founder, or to find some other way of tactfully reviewing the right information. In any case, I would keep the request vague, simple, and direct, and see what information they show you.
"One thing I would like to clear up here is that Black Scholes is just a model that makes some assumptions about the dynamics of the underlying + a few other things and with some rather complicated math, out pops the Black Scholes formula. Black Scholes gives you the ""real"" price under the assumptions of the model. Your definition of what a ""real"" price entails will depend on what assumptions you make. With that being said, Black Scholes is popular for pricing European options because of the simplicity and speed of using an analytic formula as opposed to having a more complex model that can only be evaluated using a numerical method, as DumbCoder mentioned (should note that, for many other types of derivative contracts, e.g. American or Bermudan style exercise, the Black Scholes analytic formula is not appropriate). The other important thing to note here is that the market does not necessarily need to agree with the assumptions made in the Black Scholes model (and they most certainly do not) to use it. If you look at implied vols for a set of options which have the same expiration but differing strike prices, you may find that the implied vols for each contract differ and this information is telling you to what degree the traders in the market for those contracts disagree with the lognormal distribution assumption made by Black Scholes. Implied vol is generally the thing to look at when determining cheapness/expensiveness of an option contract. With all that being said, what I'm assuming you are interested in is either called a ""delta-gamma approximation"" or more generally ""Greek/sensitivities based profit and loss attribution"" (in case you wanted to Google some more about it). Here is an example that is relevant to your question. Let's say we had the following European call contract: Popping this in to BS formula gives you a premium of $4.01, delta of 0.3891 and gamma of 0.0217. Let's say you bought it, and the price of the stock immediately moves to 55 and nothing else changes, re-evaluating with the BS formula gives ~6.23.
The best source of financial statements would be from the company in question. On corporate websites of public listed companies, you can find such financial statements uploaded in the Investor's Relations section of their website. If their company does not have an online presence, another alternative would be to go to the website of the exchange the company is trading in (e.g. NYSE or NASDAQ) for financial data.
These may include: Chances of winning appeals if specific existing liabilities are results of litigation, e.g. tax appeals, court judgement appeals etc... Clawbacks and lawsuits against former executives, especially in cases where the company's financial distress resulted from executive malfeasance. I was personally involved in one such case as an equity holder, where the company assets were valued at $X; had liabilities of $X*2; but had a real possibility of winning about $X*3 in a lawsuit against former CEO accused of various malfeasance including fraud and insider trading. As such, the best case scenario was literally 100% profit on holding that distressed equity."
Hey desquinbnt &amp; pontsone, I had an explanation written up about Share and Bond evaluation and in which, one share evaluation technique utilizes the P/E ratio - hence I explained it. Have a read, if you'd want me to go more in depth, let me know! :)  http://letslearnfinance.net/2012/06/09/introduction-to-bonds-and-share-valuation/
"Does the company see itself expanding into new product lines or new territories? What is the current predicted growth for the company's earnings for the next 5 years? These would generally be where I'd look for growth in companies. In the case of Costco, there may be a perception of the company as being a ""safe"" company as the market capitalization for the stock is over $50 billion which is rather large. Thus, there is something to be said for Costco providing a dividend and may well weather the current market for an idea compared to holding funds in money markets that are paying nothing in some cases. There is also something to be said for looking at the industry and sector values that Costco is in where on Yahoo! Finance, I find the P/E for the industry and sector to be 35.05 and 28.47, respectively. Thus, Costco isn't as inflated as the other stocks in the same ballpark for another idea here."
Let me show you a simple example: Say you have securities A,B,C and D you calculated ERB's: ERB(a)=6, ERB(b)=6.5, ERB(c)=5, ERB(d)=4 also you calculated: C(a)=4.1, C(ab)=4.8, C(abc)=4.9, C(abcd)=4.5. Then you check: ERB(a),ERB(b),ERB(c) are greater than C(a), but C(a) only contains security A so C(a) is not an optimum mix. ERB(a),ERB(b),ERB(c) are greater than C(ab), but C(ab) only contains securities A and B ERB(a),ERB(b),ERB(c) are greater than C(abc), and C(abc) contains A B and C so it is an optimum. ERB(d) is lower than C(abcd) so C(abcd) is not an optimum portfolio. Finally the most important part: Below is a formula to find the share of each security in the portfolio: Here you simply plug in already obtained values for each security to find it's proportion in your portfolio. I hope this somehow answers your question, however there is a lot more than this to consider if you decide to manage your portfolio yourself. Some of the most important areas are: Market Timing Hedging Stocks vs Bonds Good luck with your investments! And remember, the safest portfolio is the one that replicates the Global Market. The cut-off rate for a portfolio containing the first 'j' securities is given by (i'm inserting an image cut from Word below): Here comes the tricky part: Basically what you do is first calculate ERB for each security, then calculate Cj for each security mix (gradually adding new securities one by one and recalculating Cj each time). Then you select an optimum portfolio by comparing Cj of each mix to ERB's of it's securities.
Once you gain an understanding of how this works, pick something out there and do a report on it. Then you'll be left with a single 'word problem' that gives you nothing except a problem and tells you to find an answer. You'll have to find all the inputs and give reasons why these inputs are sound and reasonable inputs for this analysis. A big part that people don't understand about projections and analysis is that **inputs don't exist in plain sight**. You have to make a lot of judgment calls when making these assumptions and it takes a lot of technical understanding to make a reasonable assumption--of which the results of your report highly depend on. As a finance student, you get a taste for all of this. I'm gonna say it's going to be hard to learn a lot of substantial info in 2 months, but I'm not exactly sure what big business expects out of their grunts. You'll mostly be doing practical work like desk jockey business, data entry, and other labor-based jobs. If you know what you're talking about, you can probably work up to something more specialized like underwriting or risk management or something else. Source: Finance degree but currently working towards starting a (finance related) company to draw on my programming background as well.
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Therefore the best portfolio is the one that maximises (Rl) where: Rl = Rp-0.84*Sp Telser's Criterion: Maximise expected return subject to the constraint that the chance of a return below the specified minimum is less than or equal to some specified minimum (a) Maximise (Rp) subject to Prob (Rp < Rl) =< a Assuming same data as previously: Rl =< Rp-0.84*Sp and select the portfolio with highest expected return. Security Selection Now let's look at some methods of security selection. This is important when a manager believes some shares are mispriced. The required return on security 'i' is given by: Ri = Rf+(Rm-Rf)Bi Where (Rf) - is a risk-free rate, (Rm) - return on the market, (Bi) - security's beta. The difference between the required return and the actual return expected is known as the security's alpha (Ai). Ai = Rai - Ri, where (Rai) is actual return on security 'i'. Stock Picking One way of stock-picking is to select portfolios of securities with positive alphas. Alpha of a portfolio is simply the weighted average of the alphas of the securities in the portfolio. Ap = {(n*Ai) Where ({) is sigma (sorry for such weird typing, haven't figured out yet how to type proper-looking formulas), (n) - share of 'i'th security in portfolio. So another way of stock-picking is ranking securities by their excess return to beta (ERB): ERB = (Ri - Rf)/Bi The greater the ERB the more desirable the security and the greater the proportion it will make up of the portfolio. Thus portfolios produced by this technique will have greater proportion of some securities than the market portfolio and lower proportions of other securities.
Hey man, help is help and I appreciate anything and everything. The best piece of business advice I ever got was to always look at your company from a consumer's point of view and that perfectly lines up with what you just said.   I'd love to see what you have.
"Oh how I detest ""Good to Great"". Worst management book ever. Incredibly poor analysis method and useless results. They even asked the inverse of the question you actually would want to know.   They asked ""Given companies that went from Good to Great, what strategies did they use in common."" That's worthless. It's like analyzing lottery winners and finding out they all used the strategy of buying lottery tickets, and they concluding that you should also buy lottery tickets.  The question should be, ""How many companies using Strategy X went from Good to Great compared to using Strategy Y."" Even if GtG found some coherently useful strategies (they didn't), it might be that most Bad to Worse companies also used the same strategies. What you want are strategies that are statistically likely to improve your odds of success, not what the successful are statistically likely to have had."