vania-janet/multiturn-rag-retrieval-data huggingface dataset:
"Read the book ""Bailout"". Holder and Geithner stopped investigations and the banks kept doing the same stupid/illegal stuff. Jez, they paid bonuses under Obama. The government had to take over the secondary mortgage market and pump in $5 trillion in QE and **still can't undo it**."
Investors who traffic in JGBs have remarked that the market now functions very poorly, since so much of the market is held by the BOJ. It seems that will get worse, not better. Last year the BOJ implemented a policy of yield curve targeting (ostensibly to help the banks), keeping the overnight rate negative but targeting a 10 year rate at zero percent. The BOJ has been buying longer-dated bonds for years, but this was the first time it ever explicitly capped a rate at longer maturities. Some people wondered how committed the BOJ would be to maintain that cap in the event that JGBs were caught up in a global duration selloff, which we experienced in the last two weeks. As 10-year JGB yields rose above 0.10% last week, the BOJ announced that it was prepared to buy an unlimited amount of bonds to keep yields close to zero percent. As you can imagine, buying an unlimited amount of 10-year JGBs involves printing a theoretically unlimited amount of yen, so the yen weakened significantly on the news.  It still remains about ten percent stronger than it was in 2015. We are getting closer to the endgame for Japan. What happens if yields rise further? What happens if the yen depreciates significantly? How much could it depreciate? Could Japan have a currency crisis? What happens if the BOJ ends up owning the entire bond market? These are the questions that investors are asking, and nobody really knows the answers. We are in uncharted territory. I believe that a currency crisis isn't just possible--it's inevitable. And it probably happens at about the time that the BOJ owns all or nearly all of the JGB market, and has to resort to canceling the debt. This sounds like a neat magic trick to make the debt go away, but the laws of economics are not to be conned. Anything is possible--a currency crash, a bond market crash--anything. This is the very definition of debt monetization that resulted in hyperinflation in places like Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe. Is Japan different? We shall see. We will find out soon, as Japan has taken a major step in that direction.
Weren't these fuckers just given 120 billion euros? At this point they should probably stop fueling this shit and just let them burn. European tax payers aren't the only ones dealing with this. The American Federal Reserve is lending money to the banks and the ECB to help with this. I don't want to pay for ailing banks in my own goddamn country, let alone those on the other side of the world in a country I may never visit.
My own simple answer is that it will affect and reduce productivity (e.g. Zimbabwe). it will also cause inflation which mean that no one will want to work for production again.
"This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jareddillian/2017/07/10/japan-has-entered-the-next-phase-unlimited-money-printing/#6251a04468a0) reduced by 80%. (I'm a bot) ***** &gt; Quantitative easing, which involves the purchase of &amp;quot;Printed&amp;quot; money to buy government bonds, was widely viewed in Japan as a failure, but what most people don&amp;#039;t understand about Japan&amp;#039;s early QE experiments is that they were very small-less than $20 billion a month.  &gt; Investors who traffic in JGBs have remarked that the market now functions very poorly, since so much of the market is held by the BOJ. It seems that will get worse, not better.  &gt; What happens if yields rise further? What happens if the yen depreciates significantly? How much could it depreciate? Could Japan have a currency crisis? What happens if the BOJ ends up owning the entire bond market? These are the questions that investors are asking, and nobody really knows the answers.   ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/6n8rbs/japan_has_entered_the_next_phase_unlimited_money/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ ""Version 1.65, ~166624 tl;drs so far."") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr ""PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome."") | *Top* *keywords*: **Japan**^#1 **BOJ**^#2 **market**^#3 **bond**^#4 **JGB**^#5"
"&gt; However, we are part of a group working with the German Banking Association on getting this law updated to bring it into the line with other jurisdictions around the world""  Eli5 on how this would be done and how can it line with others around the world? I guess each would be hard to ""pair up"" to others if they have big differences on how they work."
it will be far reaching. China sustains commodity levels, if China collapses it will take alongside the BRICs along with Australia and its neighbors both in South Asia and Central Asia. If China decides to sell its American bonds, it will affect America's debt issuing machine.
Hypothetical Question: What happens if the state can't make pension obligations anymore?   Credit rating would go down, pensioneers (current and future) would have to take a cut and some taxes would increase or legislation would change that makes it impossible to enact pension holidays. Probably a combination of the above.   What else would happen?
At present, Australia is looking like a good bet.  I'll need to find a new job as part of the move.  The problem with waiting until after things fall apart to move is that it may no longer be easily possible, and even if it is possible to leave, it may not be possible to take wealth out of the country.  It would not surprise me at all for instance, to discover after high double digit inflation starts, that it was difficult to move precious metals out of the country.    There is a distinct possibility that the government might choose to seize precious metals even from people not leaving.  It wouldn't be the first time in US history that it was illegal for US citizens to own gold and silver (for those owning coins minted after 1933, the government could instead choose to redeem them at face value - i.e., a $20 gold piece for $20).
im in no position to guess what would happen. rather than sitting in any particular sub,  i just usually keep hitting refresh on /r/all/new and see what catches my eye..   or in this case.. what doesnt.. :)  i cant see it being phased out tomorrow though, or anytime in the near future, as far as economics of it all go, its my guess its all manipulated by the mega wealthy anyway..   we are all stuffed regardless..    i know theres a lot of oil in the ME that the west wants.. thats why we have wars..  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hfEBupAeo4 if there was an alternative to oil, so long as we all had ~~free~~ access to it, id think there would be no need for war, and instead of the global budget spent on militaries,, we could use it to feed the hungry, shelter the homeless.. i think we would all prosper :)
Sweden just recapitalized and fired the bankers. They are fine and were fine just a few years after their crash. Now the US has an out of control bail out culture mixed with the worst, most dishonest business men in history running the show. This will end up way worse than last time.
The point i wanted to make is that you can't rule out war, countries conquered/stole from each other throughout all of history, the only reason we don't now is because of prosperity. Take that away and all bets are off.   The great depression hit all corners of the globe, what's going to happen to the american debt? Whoever bought that is going to want their money back. Is china going to stay friends? What about north korea, when they see countries around them failing, they don't seem too friendly even now. Russia? We don't know enough about their culture to know what their intentions are, to them the americans are just the same, building their military same as everyone else.  The wall-street crash of 1930s was based on speculation and stock investments, the amount of shit piled up, about to explode is so many times bigger. Also, people back then were more prepared for a depression, they were more self-sustainable and lived in communities.   Really, when the economic collapse happens, a huge amount of people are going to die, people with disabilities, those needing medication, morbedly obese etc. They represent a large proportion of the population and they are going to die off within weeks of the collapse.   Without a doubt it will be worse than the great depression. I don't care about the politics, i'm not even american for starters, survive through the shitstorm first.
You're getting the great recession and great depression confused. I'm talking about 2008, not nearly 100 years ago. I would like to know what country you live in because it's probably not Greece, Italy, or Spain. You would be singing a very different tune.
"Well you're clearly misinformed. Read ""When the music stopped"" - so many factors went into the crisis. JPM did NOT need the bailout money. Regarding all banks failing, I think the financial system as a whole would've taken a massive hit with letting Lehman fail and not stepping in but to say that ""all banks"" would've failed is inaccurate. No one really knows how extreme the fallout would've been without the cash surge."
&gt; Eventually it will have to come to a screaming halt.  That will be when Eastern Europe gets closer to Northern Europe economically, their strategy is ultimately self-defeating to the aggregate benefit of all. It's not a race to the bottom but a race to equilibrium.  This is already happening in China a bit even though their per-capita GDP is so much lower than the developed nations.  Whether it will balance out without a large drop in rich country living standards or large negative changes to inequality is less certain though.
"Do you have the felling this is going to get much much worse before it gets better? I mean, Greece is going through with austerity measures and will be cutting gov't spending and raising taxes again. They will be cutting over 150,000 gov't workers, pensions cut, etc. How are they ever going to grow? If Spain and Italy follow in this practice, I see another ""loss decade"" just like Japan went through. If not a total EU collapse."
Looks like a hard call if they waived their immunity. However it seems a bad precedent to allow something like that to have effect. Won't a subsequent change of leadership occur with them renouncing the recklessness of the previous leadership?   Then you have a US judge in the middle of this with pictures of kids starving and old people going without medical care. We work hard for the average Joe in other countries to have a good opinion of the US. American servicemen have been in harm's way for this. Why let Wall Street have its way here?
Two Questions, please feel free to pick either one, or answer both if you want.  1)  If tax reform does get passed and corporate &amp; income taxes are reduced/consolidated, what will be 1. the short term effect on the U.S national debt? and 2. The long term effect on the debt, factoring in the obvious (and already priced in) supply side growth potential of the tax cuts?   It seems to me that the GOP tea partiers/deficit hawks that rose to political power in 2010-2012 have gone oddly mute on the (probable) increase in the federal debt as a result of both the proposed Trump tax cuts and (subjectively) wasteful budget provisions like Wall funding, deportation enforcement ect...   2) A. What is your best guess of the reaction of U.S &amp; European asset markets (Eq &amp; Bonds) in the event of a war on the Korean peninsula, with both conventional and asymetrical weapons &amp; methods used on North, South Korea as well as U.S ally Japan?   I ask because the economic fundamentals of U.S/Western Europe are strong, and am wondering whether an obvious negative market shock (nuclear? war) would be enough to send those respective western economies into recession/financial crisis.    B. What will be the geopolitical result? Does China back NK to prevent a immigration crisi/power vacuum or do they side with the UN/U.S and allow military destruction of NK in the event of a NK-started war?
"This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-jobs-exclusive/exclusive-10000-uk-finance-jobs-affected-in-brexits-first-wave-reuters-survey-idUSKCN1BT1EU) reduced by 91%. (I'm a bot) ***** &gt; LONDON - Around 10,000 finance jobs will be shifted out of Britain or created overseas in the next few years if the UK is denied access to Europe&amp;#039;s single market, according to a Reuters survey of firms employing the bulk of workers in international finance.  &gt; The 39 who gave information on their Brexit staffing plans included many of the companies most likely to be affected by losing the EU financial &amp;quot;Passport&amp;quot; mechanism because London is their base to sell services across the EU. The survey indicated 9,777 banking roles would be affected.  &gt; Bank of America and Credit Suisse, two of the biggest investment banks in London, declined to say how many jobs would be affected.   ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/70vv1n/10000_uk_finance_jobs_affected_in_brexits_first/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ ""Version 1.65, ~212179 tl;drs so far."") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr ""PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome."") | *Top* *keywords*: **Bank**^#1 **Brexit**^#2 **survey**^#3 **job**^#4 **LONDON**^#5"
As the fed liquidates their fiat, the stock market will go down to zero and bonds will evaporate as their denominated in worthless paper.  [The government is going to come for people's gold and seize assets](http://www.zerohedge.com/news/mark-faber-i-am-convinced-whole-derivatives-market-will-cease-exist-and-will-go-zero)  Guns and canned goods are the only safe investments from here forward.
In reality here is what is going to happen.  Other nations will continue to distance themselves from the dollar. China in its arrogance will make a premature move against the dollar but at the same time the dirty little secret is they are dancing on the edge of economic collapse right now. Some countries will move towards China further weakening the dollar but not destroying it. China is going to have a real drop very soon (*probably along with the US and other large nations*) then everyone is going to panic and flock back to the dollar because they don't know what else to do.
"Have to do a presentation for an International Business and Cultures class in about a month and the assigned WSJ article isn't quite clicking with me and looking for a kind soul here to put it into layman's terms I guess. If I am violating any policy or breaking a rule by posting the text from the article, please delete. Thank you for any reply! WASHINGTON--Finance officials trying to avert the next global economic crisis found time at a summit here to worry about something besides Brexit and European banks: China's mounting debts and its flagging economic overhauls. The country's surging credit growth, overcapacity in its steel and metals industries and its bloated housing market drew widespread complaints from finance officials and central bankers attending semiannual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Officials congratulated China for its efforts to get the yuan included in the IMF's international basket of currencies, known as special drawing rights, starting Oct. 1. And despite a couple of scares in the past year or so, the country's markets and economic growth have appeared to stabilize in recent months. But in a sign of how important the world's second-biggest economy is to global growth, China is increasingly being called out. U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew warned Beijing in unusually candid language about China's overproduction and overbuilding, which he suggested could become the biggest U.S. complaint about the country, as their earlier disputes over the country's exchange rate become less divisive. ""I'm talking about steel, I'm talking about aluminum, I'm talking about real estate--when you don't have market forces driving investment, when you don't have bad investments allowed to fail, you end up with resources allocated in a way that ultimately chokes the future of economic growth,"" Mr. Lew said at the Peterson Institute for International Economics on Thursday. The IMF zeroed in on a measure called current credit overhang, a widely followed international indicator of potential crises. The deviation of China's credit growth from its long-term trend has surged from zero during the financial crisis to up to 27%. Last year, banks' balance sheets grew to 286% of gross domestic product.
"I'd agree with you except for that last part.  Not sure we can really HAVE a large scale war again. Certainly nothing between the major powers (not that the human race would be likely to survive anyway).  What would be more likely would be a dramatic collapse/end of the global economy via a large scale ""slamming of the gates"" between major nations (i.e. US/China) and subsequent nationalizations/confiscations of foreign assets -- leading to a BIG depression as a lot of paper assets end up becoming worthless and it takes a decade (or more) to sort out who actually (still) owns what, and what the heck it is worth.  Meanwhile, of course, all kinds of civil unrest, riots &amp; looting and the inevitable police-state crackdown... but ultimately then demands for solutions and the election/elevation of some ""strong-man"" types with dictatorial powers who proceed to run a very low-prosperity command economy with rationing of essentials (for the masses anyway... the elites, as they always do, would retain their privileges)."
It's hard to argue against the bailout when the alternative scenario was unknown. Of course, there are hypothesis about what that would have looked like and I don't think any of them posit that we would have been better off.   People make this a political argument but it wasn't a political decision at the time.
"Please clarify your question. What do you mean by ""..loan in Greece""? If you are referring to taking a mortgage loan to purchase residential property in Greece, there are two factors to consider: If the loan originates from a Greek bank, then odds are likely that the bank will be nationalized by the government if Greece defaults. If the loan is external (i.e. from J.P. Morgan or some foreign bank), then the default will certainly affect any bank that trades/maintains Euros, but banks that are registered outside of Greece won't be nationalized. So what does nationalizing mean for your loan? You will still be expected to pay it according to the terms of the contract. I'd recommend against an adjustable rate contract since rates will certainly rise in a default situation. As for property, that's a different story. There have been reports of violence in Greece already, and if the country defaults, imposes austerity measures, etc, odds are there will be more violence that can harm your property. Furthermore, there is a remote possibility that the government can attempt to acquire your private property. Unlikely, but possible. You could sue in this scenario on property rights violations but things will be very messy from that point on. If Greece doesn't default but just exits the Euro Zone, the situation will be similar. The Drachma will be weak and confidence will be poor, and unrest is a likely outcome. These are not statements of facts but rather my opinion, because I cannot peek into the future. Nonetheless, I would advise against taking a mortgage for property in Greece at this point in time."
"Right... so the fundamental question is if the roll-over cessation will cause short term interest rates to decouple from the Fed's say-so.  This is otherwise known as a bond auction failure.  The fed wants the treasury debt off their books, but they don't want to raise interest rates to make that happen.  So, they're going to experiment with uptake outside of the Fed to see if they can ""boil the frog"".  If the frog starts to squirm, I guarantee you that they're going to take the pot off the burner.  At their the proposed roll-over suspension rate, it'll take approximately 12 to 16 years to to get that two trillion off their books... and that assumes that nothing bad happens during that time.  &gt; Do you know of any good writeups that would back your side?  The closest you're going to find would be anything written about the JCB post 1995... but it looks like their program of direct stock market participation (technically, they're using ETFs, probably for financial cryptography purposes) [began in earnest in 2010](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-19/japan-bourse-head-turns-surprise-critic-of-kuroda-etf-purchases)  [this piece ](https://blog.kurtosys.com/central-banks-unthinkable-buying-stocks/) indicates that the Japanese aren't the only ones doing this.  England, The Swiss and even the EU is doing the same thing across multiple exchanges.  As the article points out, there's a two pronged effect of suppressing FX stock price correlations (strengthening or weakening of currencies raising or lowering stocks listed on associated bourses) and reducing volatility through market intervention (AKA plunge protection teams).   They also reference an Investco survey of  central bank reserve managers."
....and take it out of the huge reserve set up for Ukraine?  What's next?  Heating Ukrainian homes this winter on EU's nickel while Kiev takes a work time out and pays for a civil war?  Everybody's hurt by all this.  First things first: Order the oligarch armies and Kiev armies to stop the violence in E Ukraine.  Bring in a UN peacekeeping force.
&gt; The new exchange bonds will be getting paid as normal in Argentina. (Unless Argentina changes its mind! In which case it will have home-court advantage in changing the terms of the bonds.) The old exchange bonds, and the old old bonds, won't get paid, exactly, but Argentina will deposit money at the central bank for them, which they can get any time they want to swap into new exchange bonds. Presumably many people will hold on to the old exchange bonds, hoping for some improvement in their lot in life, and eventually that hope will turn into lawsuits, as hope does. So there will be two classes of bondholders suing Argentina, and each other, and not getting paid, and being sad.  This paragraph from OP's article is golden
&gt;At some point you can no longer take on more debt even if you wanted to. If global and domestic investors think you are going to be a risky investment then they cut you off.  The *issuer* of a currency can't be cut off from spending in the currency they issue.
It will be painful for the world, but not in the same way that the Western financial crisis of '08 was painful.  This will mostly hurt China, as well as western companies whose marginal revenue and growth is dependent upon Chinese business.
Presumably you mean to ask what happens if State Street files chapter 7 bankruptcy, since not all bankruptcy proceedings end in liquidation.  SPY is a well known ticker, I can't imagine that there wouldn't be an eager bank willing to pay to pick up that ticker and immediately acquire all the assets related to it. The most likely scenario is that another bank would assume control of the ticker and assets, and the shares would continue trading as they always have. A less likely scenario is that no other financial institution wanted to acquire SPY, and the shares would be liquidated and the proceeds would go to the owners of shares of the ETF. Since the underlying assets are in companies that have actual value, the shares shouldn't trade at much of a discount prior to liquidation. Additionally, if there is a black swan event, there will probably be losses on the underlying assets, so it might even be helpful if the SPY fund was tied up in legal proceedings while everyone gets their heads straight in the market.