vania-janet/multiturn-rag-retrieval-data huggingface dataset:
Financially, the value of the mattress collapses as soon as you get it home, but the lifestyle benefit of it holds up just fine for eight years or so. So if there are some major purchases (say >$1000) that you want to make, and you want to track it, what I would do is: make a list of things you want to buy in the future, and then tick them off when you either do buy them, or cross them out when you decide you actually don't want them. Then you have something to motivate saving, and you have a chance to think it over before you make the purchase. You can also look back on what seemed to be important to you in the past and either feel satisfied you achieved what you wanted, or you can discover more about yourself by seeing how your desires change. You probably don't want to so much spend $50k as you want to buy a TV, a dishwasher, a trip to whereever..."
Below is a list of rules that will help you to decide what types of products you should be investing in:
You have money, free hands and free time, you can make an extremely positive impact on the world.  I would start with a list of causes that you're passionate about. Narrow that down to 3 and then get involved in all of them. I think you should pick the one you like most, but some people can handle all 3.
"I argued for a 15% rule of thumb here: Saving for retirement: How much is enough? Though if you'll let me, I'd refine the argument to: use a rule of thumb to set your minimum savings, then use Monte Carlo to stress-test and look at any special circumstances, and make a case to save more. You're right that the rule of thumb bakes in tons of assumptions (great list btw). A typical 15%-works scenario could include: If any of those big assumptions don't apply to you (or you don't want to rely on them) you'd have to re-evaluate. It sounds like you're assuming 4-5% investment returns? As you say that's probably the big difference, 4-5% is lower than most would assume. 6-7% (real return) is maybe a middle-of-the-road assumption and 8% is maybe an unrealistic one. Many of the assumptions you list (such as married/kids, cost of living, spouse's income, paying for college) can maybe be bundled up into one assumption (percentage of income you will spend). Set a percentage budget and as you go along, stay within your means by sacrificing as required. Also smooth out income across layoffs and things by having an emergency fund. By staying on-budget as you go you can remove some of the unpredictability. The reason I think the rule of thumb is still good, despite the assumptions, is that I don't think a ""more accurate"" number based on a lot of unpredictable guesses is really better; and it may even be harmful if you use it to justify saving less, or even if you use it to save far too much. See also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precision_bias Many (most?) important assumptions are not predictable: investment returns, health care inflation, personal health, lifestyle creep (changing spending needs/desires), irrational investment behavior. I agree with you that for many scenarios and people, 15% will not be enough, though it's a whole lot more than most save already.
I cannot believe noone mentioned this so far: Every decision you make is independent from previous decisions (that is, if you only care about your expected gain). This means that your decision whether to buy the option should be the same whether you bought the same option before or not.
As well, consider the opportunity cost; while saving money for a home, you still need a place to live. This additional cost is comparable to mortgage payments, meaning X has a hidden constant; the cost of renting. Often X + R > IX, making taking a loan a better choice than saving up. Conclusion ""The general advice"" is a good heuristic for most common human payments; we have relatively long life spans compared to most common payments, and the opportunity cost of not having most goods is relatively low. However, certain things have a high opportunity cost; if you can't talk to HR, you can't apply for jobs (phone), if you can't get to work, you can't eat (car), and if you have no where to live, it's hard to keep a job (house). For things with high opportunity costs, the interest payments are more than worth it."
Stated preferences vs. revealed preferences.  People say they are willing to buy American, support mom and pop shops, buy higher quality goods, be ethical consumers, etc. until it comes down to actually paying for them, when most people will end up choosing based on price.
There is no matrix that is going to work for you because people value qualitative things differently.  For example, if I could afford a van Gogh painting, I'd only buy it if I could flip it for a profit.  It's worth very little to me intrinsically.  Another person might find it worth millions of dollars simply for aesthetic reasons. If you wish to try to quantify your desires, you have to do so yourself.  However, I would say it's being too analytical about life, which isn't a money-collecting game unless you make it one.  Can you afford your future?  Can you afford to lose your job for a time?  How much do you want to save?  Once you know those sorts of answers, you know how much you can spend on lifestyle choices.
This depends entirely on what the market guesses the news will be and how much of that guess has already been factored into the price. There is no general answer beyond that.  Note that this explains the apparently paradoxical responses where a stock good down on good news (the market expected better) or up on bad news (the market expected worse).
"Another approach would be more personalized, which is to measure the risk of missing your goals, rather than measuring the risk of an investment in some abstract sense. Financial planners do this for example with Monte Carlo simulation software (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method). They would put in a goal such as not running out of money before you die, with assumptions such as the longest you might live and how much you'll withdraw every year. You'd also assume an asset allocation. The Monte Carlo simulation then generates random market movements over the time period, considering historical behavior of your asset allocation, and each run of the simulation would either succeed (you are able to support yourself until death) or fail (you run out of money). The risk measure is the percentage of simulation runs that fail. You can do this to plan saving for retirement in addition to planning withdrawals; then your goal would be to have X amount of money in real after-inflation dollars, perhaps, and success is if you end up with it, and failure is if you don't. The great thing about this risk measure is that it's relevant and personal; ""10% chance of being impoverished at age 85,"" ""20% chance of having to work an extra decade because you don't have enough at 65,"" these kinds of answers. Which is a lot easier to act on than ""the variance is 10"" or ""the beta is 1.5"" - would you rather know your plan has a 90% chance of success, or know that you have a variance of 10? Both numbers are probably just guesses, but at least the ""chance of success"" measure is actionable and relevant. Some tangential thoughts FWIW:"
Here's what I'd consider:
You'll know next year probably! To answer your actual question... first you should now understand there is no such thing as a stock that is on sale, just stocks that are priced broadly according to the markets consensus on its value in years to come, the closest thing being a stock that is 'over sold' (but one man's 'over sold' is another man's train crash remember)... so what to actually look for? The only way to (on average) make good buy and sell decisions is to know about investing and trading (buy some books, I have 12), understand the businesses you propose to invest in and understand their market(s) (which may also mean understanding national and international economics somewhat).
Determine an investment strategy and that will likely answer this for you. Different people have different approaches and you need to determine for yourself what buy and sell criteria you want to have. Again, depending on the strategy there can be a wide range here as some may trade index funds though this can backfire in some cases. In others, there can be a lot of buy and hold if one finds an index fund to hold forever which depending on the strategy is possible. Returns can vary widely as an index can be everything from buying gold stocks in Russia to investing in short-term Treasuries as there are many different indices as any given market can have an index which could be stocks, bonds, a combination of the two or something else in some cases so please consider asset allocation, types of accounts, risk tolerance and time horizon in making decisions or consider using a financial planner to assist in drawing up a plan with allocations and how frequently you want to rebalance as my suggestion here.
"I would suggest you do three things: If you do all three of these, the time will come when ""2 months off to go to Italy this winter and ride bikes through wine country"" is something you both want to do, can afford to do, and have arranged your lives to make it feasible. Or whatever wow-cool thing you might dream of. Buying a vacation property. Renovating an old house. The time may also come when you can take a chance on no income for 6 months to start a business that will give you more flexibility about when and where you work. Or when you can switch from working for a pay cheque to volunteering somewhere all day every day. You (as a couple) will have the freedom to make those kinds of decisions if you have that safety net of long term savings, as long as you also have a strong and happy relationship because you didn't spend 40 years arguing about money and whether or not you can afford things."
To me, this question is really about setting and meeting goals. The process is the same, whether it's about exercising regularly, or saving, or whatever. You need to have clear, personally-relevant reasons for doing something.  Write down: Exactly why you want to save. It may seem trivial, but if you can't visualize the prize it's hard to stay motivated. How much can you afford to save? Use something like Mint.com to find out your real monthly expenses, as opposed to what you think you're spending. Also, don't get overzealous... leave yourself some money for small luxuries and unexpected expenses so you don't feel like a miser. Saving should be a joy, not torture. Automate the saving process. Set up an automatic transfer to move the amount you figured out in step 2 to your savings account on the same date you get paid. This is very important. By saving early you ensure there will be enough money to save. If you wait until the end of the month, there will usually not be anything left. Don't you dare touch your savings! (Except in a real emergency) If you must dip into your savings, immediately create a plan to put it back as soon as possible. Also, get into the habit of reading personal finance books, blogs, sites, etc. I recommend authors like Robert Kiyosaki, and Suze Orman. Good luck!
It would depend on a) Ones view on Markets and b) Ones nature. If one believes that the market would be going up in the near future then it would be best to buy all at once. If one believes the market is uncertain, it would make sense to invest over a period of time. If one is a disciplined investor and can stick to plan, it would make sense to invest over a period of time as the risk is generally less. How much less is again subjective. If one is not a disciplined investor then buying now and getting done with is a good idea.   As to exactly quantifying this is absolute number for future would not be possible. One can take the data from past, however it would work advantages if the prices moves up and disadvantages if the price moves down.
"All of these frameworks, Markowitz, Mean/CVaR, CARA, etc  sit inside a more general framework which is that ""returns are good"" and ""risk/lack of certainty in the returns is bad"", and there's a tradeoff between the two encoded as some kind of risk aversion number.  You can measure ""lack of certainty in returns"" by vol, CVaR, weighted sum of higher moments, but even sector/region concentration.  Similarly do I want more ""returns"" or ""log returns"" or ""sqrt returns"" in the context of this tradeoff?  You don't need any formal notion of utility at that point - and I don't know what formal ideas of utility beyond ""I want more returns and less risk"" really buys you. The Sharpe ratio only really gets its meaning because you've got some formal asset-pricing notion of utility.   In my view the moment that you're putting constraints on the portfolio (e.g. long only, max weights, don't deviate too much from the benchmark ...) - really you're operating in this more general framework anyway and you're not in ""utility-land"" anymore."
As a 22 year old planning for your financial life, it is obvious to say that saving as much as you can to invest for the long run is the smartest thing to do from a financial point of view.  In general, at this point, aged 22, you can take as much risk as you'll ever will. You're investing for the very long term (+30/+40 years). The downside of risk, the level of uncertainty on returns (positive or negative), is most significant on the short term (<5years). While the upside of risk, assuming you can expect higher returns the more risk you take, are most significant on the long term.  In short: for you're financial life, it's smart to save as much as you can and invest these savings with a lot of risk.  So, what is smart to invest in? The most important rule is to keep your investment costs as low as possible. Risk and returns are strongly related, however investment costs lower the returns, while you keep the risk. Be aware of the investment industry marketing fancy investment products. Most of them leave you with higher costs and lower returns. Research strongly suggests that an lowcost etf portfolio is our best choice. Personally, i disregard this new smart beta hype as a marketing effort from the financial industry. They charge more investment costs (that's a certain) and promise better returns because they are geniuses (hmmm...). No thanks. As suggested in other comments, I would go for an low cost (you shouldn't pay more than 0.2% per year) etf portfolio with a global diversification, with at least 90% in stocks. Actually that is what I've been doing for three years now (I'm 27 years old).
I like the article concept, about seeking help where needed. This is something where an advisory board comes into play.   That said, it is super important that you seek advice specifically in areas you are lacking. You want fresh ideas and people that will challenge your ideas.
Of course if you do the work yourself, you have to consider the value of your time. (c) To make your home more pleasant to live in. This is totally subjective. You have to make the decision on the same basis that you decide whether anything that is not essential to survival is worth buying. To some people, a bottle of fancy imported wine is worth thousands, even millions, of dollars. Others can't tell the difference between a $10,000 wine and a $15 wine. The thing to ask yourself is, How important is this home improvement to me, compared to other things I could do with the money? Like, suppose you're considering spending $20,000 remodeling your kitchen. What else could you do with $20,000? You could buy a car, go on an elaborate vacation, eat out several times a week for years, retire a little earlier, etc. No one can tell you how much something is worth to you. Any given home improvement may involve a combination of these factors. Like say you're considering that $20,000 kitchen remodeling. Say you somehow find out that this will increase the resale value by $15,000. If the only reason you were considering it was to increase resale value, then it's not worth it -- you'd lose $5,000. But if you also want the nicer kitchen, then it is fair to say, Okay, it will cost me $20,000, but ultimately I'll get $15,000 of that back. So in the long run it will only cost me $5,000. Is having a nicer kitchen worth $5,000 to me? Note, by the way, that resale value only matters if and when you sell the house. If you expect to stay in this house for 20 years, any improvements done are VERY long-term investments. If you live in it until you die, the resale value may matter to your heirs.
The problem with predicting with accuracy what a stock price will do in any given situation is that there are two main factors that affect a stocks price. The first factor is based somewhat in math as it takes into account numbers such as supply and demand, earnings per share, expected earnings, book value, debt ratio and a wide variety of other numbers. You can compile all those numbers into a variety of formulas and come up with a rational estimate of what the stock should sell for. This is all well and good and if the market were entirely rational it would rarely make news because it would be predictable and boring. This is where our second factor throws a wrench in the works.  The second factor affecting stock price is emotional. There are many examples of people's emotions affecting stock price but if you would like a good example look up the price fluctuations of Apple  (AAPL) after their last couple earnings reports. Numerically their company looks good, their earnings were healthy, their EPS is below average yet their price fell following the report. Why is that?  There really isn't a rational reason for it, it is driven by the emotions behind unmet expectations. In a more general sense sometimes price goes down and people get scared and sell causing further decline, sometimes people get excited and see it as opportunity to buy in and the price stabilizes. It is much more difficult to anticipate the reaction the market will have to people's emotional whims which is why predicting stock price with accuracy is near impossible.  As a thought along the same line ask yourself this question; if the stock market were entirely rational and price could be predicted with accuracy why is there such a wide range of available strike prices available in the options market?  It seems that if stock price could be predicted with anything remotely reassembling accuracy the options market need a much smaller selection of available strike prices.
Sounds about right. Also note that you're usually at the mercy of your job for what's available; if all your choices are terrible (high fees and or low interest), that should figure into your calculations.
"Best strategy that has worked for me is to remember first of all that you hardly ever need anything ""right now"". Try this: if you see something you want to buy, leave it for at least two weeks, better yet a month. If after that time you have hardly thought about it, then you almost certainly don't need it. But if you've thought quite a lot about owning it and how it will be beneficial, then perhaps it's worth picking up. You will probably find that a small percentage of things you'd like to buy make it through that screening period."
The principle behind the advice to not throw good money after bad is better restated in economics terms: sunk costs are sunk and irrelevant to today's decisions.   Money lost on a stock is sunk and should not affect our decisions today, one way or the other.  Similarly, the stock going up should not affect our decisions today, one way or the other.  Any advice other than this is assuming some kind of mispricing or predictability in the market.  Mispricings in general cannot be reliably identified and stock returns are not normally predictable. The only valid (efficient markets) reason I know of to allow money you have lost or made on a stock to affect your decision today is the tax implications (you may want to lock in gains if your tax rate is temporarily low or vice versa).
My wife and I meet in the first few days of each month to create a budget for the coming month. During that meeting we reconcile any spending for the previous month and make sure the amount money in our accounts matches the amount of money in our budget record to the penny. (We use an excel spreadsheet, how you track it matters less than the need to track it and see how much you spent in each category during the previous month.)  After we have have reviewed the previous month's spending, we allocate money we made during that previous month to each of the categories. What categories you track and how granular you are is less important than regularly seeing how much you spend so that you can evaluate whether your spending is really matching your priorities. We keep a running total for each category so if we go over on groceries one month, then the following month we have to add more to bring the category back to black as well as enough for our anticipated needs in the coming month. If there is one category that we are consistently underestimating (or overestimating) we talk about why. If there are large purchases that we are planning in the coming month, or even in a few months, we talk about them, why we want them, and we talk about how much we're planning to spend. If we want a new TV or to go on a trip, we may start adding money to the category with no plans to spend in the coming month. The biggest benefit to this process has been that we don't make a lot of impulse purchases, or if we do, they are for small dollar amounts. The simple need to explain what I want and why means I have to put the thought into it myself, and I talk myself out of a lot of purchases during that train of thought. The time spent regularly evaluating what we get for our money has cut waste that wasn't really bringing much happiness. We still buy what we want, but we agree that we want it first.
A number of ways exist to calculate the chances of a particular outcome. Options, for example, use current price, cost of money, and volatility among other factors to price the chance of an underlying asset reaching a certain price in a certain timeframe.  A graphical forecast simply puts these calculations into a visual format. That said, it appears the image you offer shows the prediction as it existed in the past along with how the stock has done since.  A disclaimer - The odds of a fair die being rolled to a given number are 1 in 6. It's a fact. With stocks, on the other hand, models try to simulate real life and many factors can't be accounted for.
You should have three classes of goals, what you want to ""Have"", what you want to ""Do"", and who you want to ""Be""; Ask yourself, what is important to you. Then establish a timeline to achieve each goal. You should place specific goals or steps into three time blocks, Near (under 3-6 months), medium (under 12 months), and Long (under 24 months). It is ok to have longer term plans, but establish steps to get to those goals, and place those steps under one of these three timeframes. Example, Good advice I have heard includes keeping housing costs under 25%, keeping vehicle costs under 10%, and paying off debt quickly. Some advise 10-20% for financial priorities, but I prefer 30-40%. If you put 10% toward retirement (for now), save 10-20%, and pay 10-20% toward debt, you should make good progress on your student loans."
"The ""right place"" is typically somewhat exclusive and you've had to work pretty hard to get there to begin with. Right time is more luck, but you can make judgement calls here too.  For example I've been at the right place and (possibly - can't really tell without executing myself) right time for a huge number of opportunities. I had to pick one.  Am I super lucky, or very good at networking? Or why do I keep being so often in what appears to be the right place at the right time?"