vania-janet/multiturn-rag-retrieval-data huggingface dataset:
Are you trying to get someone to do your homework for you?  This question has been answered repeatedly in the negative by everyone who actually studies the economy.  Read Mundell-Flemming model, and learn this stuff.  You can see why currency regimes like the Euro make sense from a theoretical stand point, but where flexible exchange rates are a welcome release valve for pressures.  You obviously have never studied economics. Hyper inflation doesn't happen becuase of floating exhange rates.  Hyperinflation happens when people lose faith in the governing body, regardless of who that is.  You think political regimes won't change just because there is one currency?  No, they will still spent 1.05 for every dollar they bring in taxes.  Hyperinflation is not a problem of floating exchange rates, it doesn't follow from any causal relationship.
This crisis just shows why the dollar has no chance in my lifetime of loding it's dominance.  Russia is a major world player, were taking what seemed right steps to move forward economically, socially, politically.  Yet this crisis shows the truth.  Media controlled by the kremlin.  Taking actions in other countries.  No fear of economic hardships due to political issues.    Who else could supplant the US dollar? China is in the same boat as Russia.  Still not a free society.  SO what's left? The Euro.  But it's got a long way to go to show it can remain stable.  Give it 50 years and get back to me.
When the market isn't allowed to favor one currency (provider) over another, there must be a central authority with the power to regulate, provide, and insure it. People don't learn the dangers of fractional reserve banking and the resulting expansions and contractions of the money supply when the providers of the currency aren't allowed to fall, taking the savings of depositors with them. Insuring people against the dangers of mismanaged money guarantees the mismanagement of money.
Italy on its own cannot decide to turn to money printing, only the European Central Bank (ECB) can make this decision. I'm assuming that the ECB will not turn to printing money for this. Italy will have to get the 5 Billion euros from its own budget somewhere, but the amount is low enough that they should be able to do that without much problems.
It's a failed state. The belief that people are going to hunker down in austerity and pay off national debt was always silly.  Sucks for the bond holders, but all these people who bet against sovereign debt defaults have bet wrong.
There's a concept called interest rate parity, which sort of says that you cannot profit on the difference in interest rates. This difference accounts for the predicted movement in exchange rates as well, along with the stability of the currencies.
Japan printed 11 trillion yen on Monday.  They do this by monetizing their own debt.  The increase in the supply of yen affects the value of the currency.  Strange thought, I know.  Greece has an economic crisis because they were borrowing at rates that AAA rated countries do.  Someone noticed that they weren't exactly a AAA country when they needed to ask for bailout money.  Since all government debt is considered risk free and same as cash, this came as a shock to most 'investors' hence the 'crisis'  edit: my bad, was 11 trillion, not 9 trillion
The location does matter in the case where you introduce currency risk; by leaving you US savings in USD, you're basically working on the assumption that the USD will not lose value against the EUR - if it does and you live in the EUR-zone, you've just misplaced some of your capital. Of course that also works the other way around if the USD appreciates against the EUR, you gained some money.
GBP has already lost part of his value just because of the fear of Brexit. An actual Brexit may not change GBP as much as expected, but a no-Brexit could rise GBP really a lot.
"Because most of the posters have disparaged the pursuit of silver without a reflection upon what you wrote in the question - your concern about Hungary and its government, I'll weigh in it. In a stable and solid political and economic environment, this advice against silver would be generally correct. As you commented, though, this has not been the case and thus it is difficult for some to understand this. Given your concerns, here's a question to reflect upon - what can the government of Hungary not confiscate? Or what have they not confiscated in the past? If silver is on that list, then very few people here will understand because statements like, To be honest, I think a lot of people on this site are doing you a disservice by taking your idea as seriously as they are, are completely predicated on an environment that has been relatively stable over the years. I know my fellow Americans (and some Europeans) don't get this, but some countries have seen disasters - for instance, Brazil has been hyperinflation even when interest rates with insane interest rates (over 1000%). So this answer won't be popular, but depending on your environment, silver may be an excellent choice. If the government of Hungary has confiscated silver in the past (or you suspect they might), though, I'd stay far away from it. In reading and listening to people in these environments, citizens typically want something the government does want to take inventory of that tend to hold their value or rise during times of crisis. Most Americans (if they were honest) really can't relate to this and the few that can would agree. Another popular item to have, which doesn't physically exist, is a rare, but valuable skill that will be needed in a crisis. For instance, being highly skilled at negotiation and knowing the right people both come in handy at difficult times. Can you pay for learning or increasing those skill sets now? Never forget that self-investment can go far.
"You mean ""Greece has asked China for loans"" and China might've taken them seriously.    In no way does that transition into any sort of reasonable expectation that China buy up European debt.  Much less buy it up and then ignore it for a while, which is obviously what Europe is hoping for."
Certainly. My old professor of international relations used to say that if we wanted to understand complex issues, what we really needed to do was try to follow the lines of national interest. Here it seems like the Germans are acting against the national interest of the entire rest of the Eurozone, only for their narrow short-term interest. Its disgusting!
The Euro is currently at 1.24. It's been lower than that before. Why do you think there is still so much money behind it? I'm not trying to push back, but do you know something that the market doesn't in terms of a collapse? Also, if you are so positive, are you heavily shorting the euro?  I by no means am convinced that the euro was a good idea. But I am convinced that they will do whatever they can to keep it alive.
I've wondered why anyone thinks it will be more than a speculation instrument. I'd love to hear arguments for it but they always fall short as soon as I think about countries inflating/deflating the value of their own currency.
I mean the current account has four parts - goods trade, services trade, “primary” income (this used to just be investment income) and “secondary” incomes (this used to be just remittance and cash flows, Mexico has a lot of these). By definition, if you have a trade deficit but current account surplus it comes from primary/secondary income.   I’m not sure if it’s crisis mode - a true BoP shock is much more likely to come from having a lot of foreigners owning portfolio assets based on your country (ie Germans owning Spanish bonds sell the bonds, so Spain now has less money for imports).
Don't worry. The Cyprus situation could only occur because those banks were paying interest rates well above EU market rates, and the government did not tax them at all. Even the one-time 6.75% tax discussed is comparable to e.g. Germany and the Netherlands, if you average over the last 5 years. The simple solution is to just spread your money over multiple banks, with assets at each bank staying below EUR 100.000. There are more than 100 banks large enough that they'll come under ECB supervision this year; you'd be able to squirrel away over 10 million there. (Each branch of the Dutch Rabobank is insured individually, so you could even save 14 million there alone, and they're collectively AAA-rated.) Additionally, those savings will then be backed by more than 10 governments, many of which are still AAA-rated.  Once you have to worry about those limits, you should really talk to an independent advisor. Investing in AAA government bonds is also pretty safe. The examples given by littleadv all involve known risky bonds. E.g. Argentina was on a credit watch, and paying 16% interest rates.
How should we disregard leverage when it's the leverage that creates the 'wipe-out' potential? If you simply convert 100K EUR to USDollars, you dollars might then fluctuate a few thousand, maybe even 10K over a year, but the guy that only put up 1000 EUR to do this has a disproportionally higher risk.
I'd have anything you would need for maybe 3-6 months stored up: food, fuel, toiletries, other incidentals.  What might replace the currency after the Euro collapses will be the least of your concerns when it does collapse.
Yep. You know, for banks to use against your deposits which are now legally interpreted as unsecured loans or some such. I don't think we can print big again. Happened in [Cyprus](http://rt.com/business/cyprus-crisis-bailout-deposit-631/). Tinfoil hat is optional.
If the equity market in the USA crashed, its very likely equity markets everywhere else would crash. The USA has a high number of the world's largest businesses and there are correlations between equity markets. So you need to think of equities as a global asset class, not regional. Your question is then a question about the correlation between equity markets and currency markets.  Here's a guess: If equity markets crashed, you would see a lot of panic selling of stocks denominated in many currencies, but probably the most in USD, due to the large number of the world's largest businesses trading on US stock exchanges. Therefore, when the rest of the world sells US equities they receive cash USD, which they might sell for their local currency. That selling pressure would cause USD to fall. But, when equity markets crash there's a move to safety of the bond markets. The world's largest bond markets are denominated in which currency? Probably USD. So those who receive USD for their equities are going to spend that USD on bonds. In which case there is probably no correlation between equity markets and currency markets at all. A quick google search shows this kind of thing
These cash restrictions are already working in Italy and France. And the reporting of foreign accounts is something that it should have been done a lot of time ago. I'm not sure why the article thinks they are a big deal..
This is called currency speculation, and it's one of the more risky forms of investing.  Unless you have a crystal ball that tells you the Euro will move up (or down) relative to the Dollar, it's purely speculation, even if it seems like it's on an upswing.  You have to remember that the people who are speculating (professionally) on currency are the reason that the amount changed, and it's because something caused them to believe the correct value is the current one - not another value in one direction or the other. This is not to say people don't make money on currency speculation; but unless you're a professional investor, who has a very good understanding of why currencies move one way or the other, or know someone who is (and gives free advice!), it's not a particularly good idea to engage in it - while stock trading is typically win-win, currency speculation is always zero-sum. That said, you could hedge your funds at this point (or any other) by keeping some money in both accounts - that is often safer than having all in one or the other, as you will tend to break even when one falls against the other, and not suffer significant losses if one or the other has a major downturn.
I don't think that it's a good idea to have cash savings in different currencies, unless you know which will be the direction of the wind for that currency. You can suffer a lot of volatility and losses if you just convert your savings to another currency without knowing anything about which direction that pair will take. Today we can see Brexit, but this is a fact that has been discounted by the market, so the currencies are already adjusted to that fact, but we don't know what will happen in the future, maybe Trump will collapse the US economy, or some other economies in Asia will raise to gain more leadership. If you want to invest in an economy, I think that it's a best idea to invest on companies that are working in that country. This is a way of moving your money to other currencies, and at least you can see how is the company performing.
You're right, but it's kind of a meaningless indicator because it doesn't account for important qualitative information about the debt: who owns it, the credibility of the central bank, etc.  Countries like the US and Japan can service a much higher debt load than Greece can, for reasons I went in to below.
"No.  The solution is to simply not force people to use a specific money, ie abolish ""legal tender laws"".  This way, people would save in currencies that have the best-reputation for maintaining their value over time, and no central bank can print their buddies out of bankruptcy at the expense of hardworking savers."
"Aren't member states doing that already? I understood every European state already pays to the central EU ""government"" (or whatever the exact term is), and that indeed for some states already pay more than they receive.  Ultimately though, I can't help but think something similar must already happen within the country as well. Without a doubt there will be richer and poorer regions in Germany. Maybe Frankfurt is quite rich and the southern part is poor? But does that mean Frankfurt should become an independent country, or does it mean people from Frankfurt aren't proud to have the rest of the country as a part of Germany?"
I don't see countries switching to the USD, I see countries moving away from it. The US has the largest peace time debt ever, is not being even close to fiscally responsible (approving ~4 trillion budget!) and is faced with 100 trillion in future commitments (social security, medicare) with a workforce (tax base) that is decreasing as the baby boomers retire. When the US cannot meet those obligations (and most experts agree there is no hope of that anymore) they will have to print money and devalue the currency.
Note that governments are also customers of the banking industry when they are issuing fixed income securities (bonds) and a good deal of the lending done by any bank is to various governments so the price that they borrow money at is a key determinant of what interest rate the bank can afford to give and are part of the competitive banking industry whether they want to be or not. Since governments in most (westernised) countries provide insurance for deposits the basic level of (perceived) risk for all of the banks in any given country is about the same. That these banks lend to each other on an incredibly regular basis (look into the overnight or repo money market if you want to see exactly how much, the rates that these banks pay to and receive from each other are governed by interbank lending rates called Libor and Euribor and are even more complicated than this answer) simply compounds this effect because it makes all of the banks reliant on each other and therefore they help each other to stay liquid (to some extent). Note that I haven't mentioned currency at all so far but this market in every country applies over a number of currencies. The way that this occurs is due to arbitrage; if I can put foreign money into a bank in a country at a rate that is higher than the rate in its native country after exchange costs and exchange rate risk I will convert all of my money to that currency and take the higher interest rate. For an ordinary individual's savings that is not really possible but remember that the large multinational banks can do exactly the same thing with billions of dollars of deposits and effectively get free money. This means that either the bank's interest rate will fall to a risk adjusted level or the exchange rate will move. Either of those moves will remove the potential for making money for nothing. In this case, therefore it is both the exchange rate risk (and costs) as well as the loan market in that country that set the interest rate in foreign currencies. Demand for loans in the foreign currency is not a major mover for the same reason.
"Wikipedia has a list of countries which ban foreign exchange use by its citizens.  It's actually quite short but does include India and China. Sometimes economic collapse limits enforcement.  For example, after the collapse of the Zimbabwean dollar (and its government running out of sufficient foreign exchange to buy the paper necessary to print more), the state turned a blind eye as the US dollar and South African rand became de facto exchange. Practicality will limit the availability of foreign exchange even in free-market economies.  The average business can't afford to have a wide range of alternative currencies sitting around.  Businesses which cater to large numbers of addled tourists sometimes offer one or two alternative currencies in the hopes of charging usurous rates of exchange.  Even bureaux de change sometimes require you to order your ""rarer"" foreign exchange in advance. So, while it may be legal, it isn't always feasible."
This is hypothesized to happen for many different reasons, including a decline in the competitiveness of other economic sectors (caused by appreciation of the [real exchange rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_exchange_rate) as resource revenues enter an economy, a phenomenon known as [Dutch disease](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_disease)), volatility of revenues from the natural resource sector due to exposure to global commodity market swings, government mismanagement of resources, or weak, ineffectual, unstable or corrupt institutions (possibly due to the easily diverted actual or anticipated revenue stream from extractive activities). &gt;==== &gt;[**Image**](https://i.imgur.com/Mwn9GmF.jpg) [^(i)](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Carson_Fall_Mt_Kinabalu.jpg) --- ^Interesting: [^Dutch ^disease](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_disease) ^| [^Political ^corruption](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_corruption) ^| [^Natural ^resource](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_resource) ^| [^Coltan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coltan) ^Parent ^commenter ^can [^toggle ^NSFW](http://www.np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=autowikibot&amp;subject=AutoWikibot NSFW toggle&amp;message=%2Btoggle-nsfw+ck4slm8) ^or[](#or) [^delete](http://www.np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=autowikibot&amp;subject=AutoWikibot Deletion&amp;message=%2Bdelete+ck4slm8)^. ^Will ^also ^delete ^on ^comment ^score ^of ^-1 ^or ^less.
"Many years ago you used to be able to purchase ""currency packs"" that were combined bundles of currencies from western Europe based on the number of days you would be spending in each country. The exchange rates on these were very favorable and they had minimal surcharges.   With the rise of the euro I doubt these bundles are still available as I haven't seen them myself in about 10 years."
Many of the major indices retreated   today because of this news. Why? How   do the rising budget deficits and debt   relate to the stock markets? The major reason for the market retreating is the uncertainty regarding the US Dollar. If the US credit rating drops that will have an inflationary effect on the currency (as it will push up the cost of US Treasuries and reduce confidence in the USD). If this continues the loss of USD confidence could bring an end to the USD as the world's reserve currency which could also create inflation (as world banks could reduce their USD reserves). This can make US assets appear overvalued. Why is there such a large emphasis on   the S&P rating? S&P is a large trusted rating agency so the market will respond to their analysis much like how a bank would respond to any change in your rating by Transunion (Consumer Credit Bureau) Does this have any major implications   for the US stock markets today, in the   short term and in July? If you are a day-trader I'm sure it does. There will be minor fluctuations in the market as soon as news comes out (either of its extension or any expected delays in passing that extension). What happens when the debt ceiling is   reached? Since the US is in a deficit spending situation it needs to borrow more to satisfy its existing obligations (in short it pays its debt with more debt). As a result, if the debt ceiling isn't raised then eventually the US will be unable to pay its existing obligations. We would be in a default situation which could have devastating affects on the value of the USD. How hard the hit will depend on how long the default situation lasts (the longer we go without an increased ceiling after the exhaustion point the more we default on). In reality, Congress will approve a raise, but they will drag it out to the last possible minute. They want to appear as if they are against it, but they understand the catastrophic effects of not doing so.
"I think you can do it as long as those money don't come from illegal activities (money laundering, etc). The only taxes you should pay are on the interest generated by those money while sitting in the UK bank account. Since I suppose you already paid taxes on those money in Greece while you were earning those money. About being audited, in my own experience banks don't ask you much where your money are coming from when you bring money to them, they are very willing to help, and happy. (It's a differnte story when you ask to borrow money). When I opened a bank account in US I did not even have an SSN, but they didn't care much they just took my passport and used the passport number for registering the account. Obviously on the interest generated by the money in the US bank account I had to pay taxes, but it was easy because I simply let the IRS via the bank to withdarw the 27% on the interest generated (not on the capital deposited). I didn't put a huge amount of money there I had to live there for 1 year or some more. Maybe if i deposited a huge amount of money someone would have come to ask me how did I make all those money, but those money were legally generated by me working in Italy before so I didn't have anything to be afraid about. BTW: in Italy I was thinking to move money to a German bank in Germany. The risk of default is a nightmare, something of completly new now in UE compared to the past where each state had its own currency. According to Muro history says that in case of default it happened that some government prevented people from withdrawing money form bank accounts: ""Yes, historically governments have   shut down banks to prevent people from   withdrawing their money in times of   crisis. See Argentina circa 2001 or US   during Great Depression. The   government prevented people from   withdrawing their money and people   could do nothing while their money   rapidly lost value."" but in case Greece prevents people from withdrwaing money, those money are still in EURO, so i'm wondering what would be the effect. I mean would it be fair that a Greek guy can not withdraw is EURO money whilest an Italian guy can withdraw the same currency money in Italy?!"