vania-janet/multiturn-rag-retrieval-data huggingface dataset:
In theory, anything can happen, and the world could end tomorrow. However, with a reasonably sane financial plan you should be able to ride this out. If the government cannot or won't immediately pay its debt in full, the most immediate consequence is that people are going to be unwilling to lend any more money in future, except at very high rates to reflect the high risk of future default. Presumably the government has got into this state by running a deficit (spending more than they collect in tax) and that is going to have to come to an abrupt end. That means: higher taxes, public service retrenchments and restrictions of service, perhaps cuts to social benefits, etc. Countries that get into this state typically also have banks that have lent too much money to risky customers. So you should also expect to see some banks get into trouble, which may mean customers who have money on deposit will have trouble getting it back. In many cases governments will guarantee deposits, but perhaps only up to a particular ceiling like $100k. It would be very possible to lose everything if you have speculative investments geared by substantial loans. If you have zero or moderate debt, your net wealth may decrease substantially (50%?) but there should be little prospect of it going to zero. It is possible governments will simply confiscate your property, but I think in a first-world EU country this is fairly unlikely to happen to bank accounts, houses, shares, etc. Typically, a default has led to a fall in the value of the country's currency. In the eurozone that is more complex because the same currency is used by countries that are doing fairly well, and because there is also turbulence in other major currency regions (JPY, USD and GBP). In some ways this makes the adjustment harder, because debts can't be inflated down. All of this obviously causes a lot of economic turbulence so you can expect house prices to fall, share prices to gyrate, unemployment to rise. If you can afford it and come stomach the risk, it may turn out to be a good time to buy assets for the long term. If you're reasonably young the largest impact on you won't be losing your current savings, but rather the impact on your future job prospects from this adjustment period.
You could evaluate the risk exposure of your UK bank reading this post and this other old one. They basically say that UK bank exposure to Greece is less than 6 billions pounds (BOE data), so there is no reason to be worried now. The main issue of this crisis is not the Greek exit from the Euro on its own (it seems to be considered almost a fact by CITI, and by MS at 35% probability, Profumo ex CEO of UNICREDIT, says the possibility are more than 50%) – the main issue is that other countries like Italy and Spain might follow the same fate. If they do, the exposure of many foreign banks (including the UK ones) to their debts is not negligible (191,80 billions pounds for UK banks) moreover other EU banks (even the German ones) exposed to Italy and to Spain will suffer too, and this suffering will be translated into more suffering for UK banks exposed also to Germany and to France. That's why you read Euro doom articles like this one from Paul Krugman (who won a Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics.)
It's not that simple.  The problem is that Greece is not in control if it's own finances.  Neither are any of the other countries.  The Eurozone doesn't have the power to do things like raise taxes or sell government bonds, and the individual governments don't have the power to float the currency.  The Eurozone is going to unwind over the a decade.  Greece will leave, but there are another 4-5 countries that should leave the Euro for the same reasons as Greece.  Spain seems likely to be the next up, with Italy not far behind.  The Euro was never designed to break apart.  We really have no idea what the shockwaves of a country leaving the currency will look like.
I can't see it happening because most of the population seems to be against it, even if their reasoning on the whole is wrong. Theoretically, people are against the Euro here as a result of national pride. If it's the best thing to do for the good of the country then national pride shouldn't be taken into account. It'd be perverse in the sense that you'd be stopping your country from progressing because you love it. That doesn't add up. Personally, I don't think it's possible for an entire continent to have a single currency. There's too many different countries and cultures involved. For it to work you'd have to have centralised fiscal policy and this makes no sense at all for a continent. What works here might not work in France or Germany. What works in Greece might not work here. etc, etc. The make up of each country's economies is different.
"There will not be enough money to fill the holes that are caused by banks' easy money policies combined with the trillions in derivative ""hedges"" that the banks have off-balance sheet.   The idea is that the chain reaction collapse of the European banking system can be avoided by plugging the holes in the dam in Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal and Ireland. But it is a crazy idea. Next comes France, and then what? At some point there is not enough money to plug the holes and the entire facade collapses anyways.  Adults would dismantle the Eurozone now and let each country see to itself. Let the banks collapse. Capital (in the form of dollars, gold, etc) will reappear and means will evolve rapidly to connect capital with people who need loans for business.   Consumer loans are going the way of the dodo bird."
Assuming that's true, and giving you that EU countries are more interdependent than most, you're still massively overstating the effect of Greece's problems on the rest of the union.  Yeah, it's a problem.  Yeah, they'll all pay a bit for it.  Still, the economy is nowhere near collapse because of it.
**Economic and Monetary Union of the European Union: Monetary policy inflexibility**  Since membership of the eurozone establishes a single monetary policy for the respective states, they can no longer use an isolated monetary policy, e. g. to increase their competitiveness at the cost of other eurozone members by printing money and devalue, or to print money to finance excessive government deficits or pay interest on unsustainable high government debt levels. As a consequence, if member states do not manage their economy in a way that they can show a fiscal discipline (as they were obliged by the Maastricht treaty), they will sooner or later risk a sovereign debt crisis in their country without the possibility to print money as an easy way out.  ***  ^[ [^PM](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=kittens_from_space) ^| [^Exclude ^me](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiTextBot&amp;message=Excludeme&amp;subject=Excludeme) ^| [^Exclude ^from ^subreddit](https://np.reddit.com/r/economy/about/banned) ^| [^FAQ ^/ ^Information](https://np.reddit.com/r/WikiTextBot/wiki/index)   ^] ^Downvote ^to ^remove ^| ^v0.23
Loans and bailouts to Spain is sending a distinct message to the sixteen other nations of the eurozone and one that could severely impact all of them.  The survival of the euro is very much close to an exit.  Register Today for all the exciting news and discussion groups we have to offer! @ http://www.igoldpost.com/register-today/
I'm assuming if Greece were to leave or be asked to leave to EMU/EURO currency, they would have to negotiate some kind of a FX Rate. I'm just taking a wildly uneducated stab at this, but i would bet they would negotiate for x% devaluation and then let the market do what it will.
Its highly unlikely to 'collapse', perhaps there will be  managed defaults, yes, but there is no way they will let it collapse as a global depression would follow.  If the euro collapses it will also bring down most of the global economy including the likes of China and the US (not to mention the Germans) and they are not going to let that happen.  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6cf8ce18-2042-11e1-9878-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1y0lc0hy1  P.s. I am surprised we have not seen more suggestions of buying guns, land and building a commune.
The simple answer: Because you believe every other option can yield greater losses... So the thinking is; Lend it to France you'll get your money back. Put your money in a bank and there's a chance you won't get it back if the bank goes bust. Investors also believe that rates will continue to go more negative, in which case they will actually MAKE money.  It's a momentum play which will eventually reverse but since the Bond market is extremely liquid, it's a bet that can quickly be unwound. Another theory floating around is that if the weaker countries of the euro leave (e.g. Greece, etc) and the core keep the euro, then the value of the euro will actually rise. So by putting your money in French or German bonds you would also be securing cash in French or German euro's. - Thinking the unthinkable on a euro break-up - Gavyn Davies
I've been short the Euro for several months now against the USD (could be various others as well). I got in at 1.42, sold on a bounce up to 1.36, bought back at 1.38 and now will probably ride it out lower.   Regardless of whether or not the Eurozone breaks up, I see it breaking through the 1.30 mark in the near-term. After that, I'm not sure how low it goes, but there is certainly potential for it to head towards 1/1. In order to reduce the burden, the ECB needs to devalue the currency.   Although Germany really doesn't want this due to their anti-inflationary ideology, if Italy comes crashing down, so does France. When France goes, Germany goes into a deep recession if not a depression. They have to devalue some.  As for a collapse, I have no idea. It probably depends on how many (if any) countries retain the currency and who they are.
"There's an ideological/psychological aspect of this too apart from the practical problems. Eurozone leaders keep saying the mantra: conversion to the euro is ""irreversible"". There are analogies of this in recent history, it reminds me of the soviet leaders and their belief that communism is where history ends. They genuinely thought that once a communist system is built up in a country, it would stay forever. They believed in the superiority of their system, among other things this lead to the isolation of the Soviet Union from the West and the start of the Cold War. Then, in 1956 they were proven wrong with the Hungarian revolution and while they tried to ""clean up"" the situation as fast as they could and forget about it, their downhill inevitably started.  Back to the present, you can easily see the importance of keeping Greece in the EZ. If Greece exits, the illusion of the irreversibility of the Euro is gone, and it would start to fall apart."
I am going to clone an answer from another question that I wrote ;) and refer you to an article in the Wall Street Journal that I read this morning,  What's at Stake in the Greek Vote, summarizing the likely outcome of the situation if a Euro exit looks likely after the election: ... we will see a full-fledged bank run. Greek banks would collapse ... The market exchange-rate would likely be two or three drachmas to the euro, which would double or triple the Greek price of imported goods within a few days. Prices of assets, including real-estate assets, would crumble. Those who moved their deposits abroad would be able to buy these assets cheaply, leading to a significant, regressive redistribution of Greek wealth. In short, you'd lose about two-thirds of your savings unless you were storing them somewhere safe from the conversion. The article also predicts difficulty importing goods (other nations will demand to be paid in euro, not drachma) leading to disruption of trade and various supply shortages.
"I read an account of why the U.K. didn't end up with the euro as its currency in David M. Smick's great book The World Is Curved: Hidden Dangers to the Global Economy. Chapter 6 of the book is titled ""Nothing Stays the Same: The 1992 Sterling Crisis."" Here's a very brief excerpt; emphasis mine: [...] As this story shows, such blindness to the realities of a changing world can be very dangerous. In this case, the result was the brutal collapse of the British pound, which explains why the British people still use their own currency, the pound or sterling, and not the euro. The events that unfolded in the autumn of 1992 were totally unforeseen, yet they reshaped the European monetary world and represent a phenomenon that continues to impact global economies. [...] Smick's account of the events around 1992 runs about 28 pages. Here's my version, in a nutshell: At the time, Britain was part of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, or ERM. The belief in Europe was that by uniting currencies under a common mechanism, Europe could gain influence in international financial policy largely dominated by the United States. The ERM was a precursor to monetary union. The Maastricht Treaty would eventually create the European Union and the euro. Britain joined the ERM later than other nations, in 1990, and after some controversy. Being part of the ERM required member nations to agree to expand and contract their currencies only within certain agreed upon limits called currency bands. Due to the way this had been structured, Germany's strong position placed it at the top of the system. At some point in 1992, Germany had raised interest rates to curb future inflation. However, Britain wanted Germany to cut rates – Britain was not in as enviable a position, economically speaking, and its currency was under pressure. The currency band system would put Britain in a tighter spot with Germany raising rates. Enter George Soros, the Hungarian billionaire, a.k.a. ""the man who broke the Bank of England."" Soros took a huge short position against the Sterling.
You forgot the biggest thing: Japan still controls its own currency and Greece does not.   If you don't control your currency, you have much more limited options when it comes to borrowing money. It is why US states can't borrow a lot of money, they all have to share the US dollar which no one state controls. So states are used to making cutbacks in hard times, but the Eurozone nations have not adopted this mindset.  Greece isn't in trouble because it borrowed too much, it's in trouble because it borrowed so much *and has to share the Euro*. Greece can't inflate its currency, so if they can't make a payment they default, no one wants to lend to a place that might default. If Greece had its own currency still there would be no currency crisis in Europe, just some inflation.
Cyprus could be *forced* into such a position because the deposits are euro-denominated and the issuing central bank sits outside the sovereign authority of Cyprus. So they could go, hat in hand, to the ECB asking them to backstop deposits. A lender of last resort function that is more or less a given in countries with their own sovereign currencies.  In a country like the US, where deposits are denominated in US dollars and the US is the issuer of the dollar, there would always be a option. Bail-ins are certainly possible as a political choice but they'd never be the only option. Which is why you didn't see them or depositor losses of any kind in spite of hundreds of bank failures in the wake of the 2008 crisis.
Moreover in case of EURO DOOM, it's highly probable that the Euro currency looses a tremendous value compared to other currencies, the loss would be huge in case the Euro Crash happens in a disordered way (i.e. a strong country like Germany and their banks decides to get out and they start printing their own money w/o listening to the ECB anymore). So even if your saving are in Euro in Germany they would loose so much value (compared to other currencies) that you will regreat forever not to have converted them into another currency when you had the time to do it. Couple of advises: 1) If you want to change you savings into another currency you don't need to bring them into another bank/country (like US), you could simply buy US Shares/Bonds at your local bank. Shares/Bonds of a US company/US gov will always be worth their value in dollars no matter in what new pathetic currency your account will be converted. 2) But is there a drawback in converting my saving into another currency (i.e. buying dollars in the form of US treasury bonds)? Unfortunately yes, the drawback is that in case this Euro drama comes finally to an happy ending and Germans decide to open their wallets for the nth time to save the currency, the Euro might suddenly increase its value compared to other currencies, therefor if you changed your saving into another currency you might loose money (i.e. US dollars looses value against the Euro)."
The article predicts problems with the US dollar.    If you live in China, or India, the end of the US dollar is not high on your list of problems.  The coming shocks in 2012, 2013, and 2014 will wreck a lot of financial sectors.    Is there a good way to prepare for financial collapse?  That depends on where you live and what your financial situation is.
Short the Pound and other English financial items.  Because the English economy is tied to the EU, it will be hit as well.  You might prefer this over Euro denominated investments, since it's not exactly clear who your counterpart is if the Euro really crashes hard.  Meaning suppose you have a short position Euro's versus dollars, but the clearing house is taken down by the crash.
Rather than screwing around with foreign currencies, hop over to Germany and open an account at the first branch of Deutsche or Commerzbank you see. If the euro really does disintegrate, you want to have your money in the strongest country of the lot.  Edit: and what I meant to say is that if the euro implodes, you'll end up with deutschmarks, which, unlike the new IEP, will *not* need to devalue. (And in the meantime, you've still got euros, so you have no FX risk.)
"On contrary of what Mike Scott suggested, I think in case of EURO DOOM it's a lot safer if your savings were changed into another currency in advance. Beware that bringing your money into an EURO CORE country (like Finland, Austria, Germany, Nethereland) it's useful if you think those banks are safer, but totally useless to avoid the conversion of your saving from Euro into your national currency. In case of EURO CRASH, only the Central Bank will decide what happens to ALL the Euro deposited wherever, single banks, even if they are Deutsche Bank or BNP or ING, can not decide what to do on their own. ECB (European Central Bank) might decide to convert EURO into local currencies based on the account's owner nationality. Therefor if you are Greek and you moved your saving in a German bank, the ECB might decide that your Euro are converted into New Dracma even if they sit in a German bank account. The funniest thing is that if you ask to a Finland bank: ""In case of Euro crash, would you convert my Euro into New Dracma?"", they sure would answer ""No, we can't!"", which is true, they can not because it's only the ECB (Europe Central Bank) the one that decides how an ordered Euro crash has to be manged, and the ECB might decide as I explained you above. Other Central Banks (Swiss, FED, etc.) would only follow the decisions of the ECB. Moreover in case of EURO DOOM, it's highly probable that the Euro currency looses a tremendous value compared to other currencies, the loss would be huge in case the Euro Crash happens in a disordered way (i.e. a strong country like Germany and their banks decides to get out and they start printing their own money w/o listening to the ECB anymore). So even if your saving are in Euro in Germany they would loose so much value (compared to other currencies) that you will regreat forever not to have converted them into another currency when you had the time to do it.
"The danger to your savings depends on how much sovereign debt your bank is holding.  If the government defaults then the bank - if it is holding a lot of sovereign debt - could be short funds and not able to meet its obligations. I believe default is the best option for the Euro long term but it will be painful in the short term.  Yes, historically governments have shut down banks to prevent people from withdrawing their money in times of crisis.  See Argentina circa 2001 or US during Great Depression.  The government prevented people from withdrawing their money and people could do nothing while their money rapidly lost value. (See the emergency banking act where Title I, Section 4 authorizes the US president:""To make it illegal for a bank to do business during a national emergency (per section 2) without the approval of the President.""  FDR declared a banking holiday four days before the act was approved by Congress.  This documentary on the crisis in Argentina follows a woman as she tries to withdraw her savings from her bank but the government has prevented her from withdrawing her money.) If the printing press is chosen to avoid default then this will allow banks and governments to meet their obligations.  This, however, comes at the cost of a seriously debased euro (i.e. higher prices).  The euro could then soon become a hot potato as everyone tries to get rid of them before the ECB prints more.  The US dollar could meet the same fate. What can you do to avert these risks?  Yes, you could exchange into another currency.  Unfortunately the printing presses of most of the major central banks today are in overdrive.  This may preserve your savings temporarily. I would purchase some gold or silver coins and keep them in your possession.  This isolates you from the banking system and gold and silver have value anywhere you go.  The coins are also portable in case things really start to get interesting.  Attempt to purchase the coins with cash so there is no record of the purchase.  This may not be possible."
"Yet another ""If X, then EUROFAIL!!"" It's really fucking tedious even without the screamingly, mind-numbingly wrong ""logic"" of this one.   If you're lending money to Germany at 0% and still expect to make a profit, it's because the Euro *will be HIGHER* than your currency at the end of the loan period.  This one doesn't look like stupidity so much as a really ham-fisted manipulation attempt to engineer a short-term euro drop for a nicer buy-in."
"I was being sarcastic. What I was trying to say was that this is a horseshit ""kick the can down the road"" maneuver that will only make things worse in the long run.   Spain is fucked, Italy is next. Greece is leaving the Euro, and soon there will be capital controls all across Europe. It'll be hell."