vania-janet/multiturn-rag-retrieval-data huggingface dataset:
"That was indeed a typo.  I would not go into details regarding Germany, Japan's economy is pretty much in stagnated state for the past two decades.  US has a high deficit and this issue is a major topic if you follow the current election season. And yes, that is not a good thing.  Britain (Still, is not that UK?) and Italy seem to come off as time wrap living in colonial era where they can just get free stuff off others. Note the high debt cost of Italy. It is not as if debtors are lining up to give money to these nations. More often than not, it is the leftover state of pre-world war mindset where some people/organizations try to hold on to the money and influence as long as possible.  I think this topic itself is extremely complicated and has various facets to it but to even moot such ideas - essentially saying ""lets exchange goods and here take our currency"" and then saying ""our currency has no value btw"" is criminal. It just voids the legal contract written on a dollar note."
In the US in 1933 the President issued an executive order forbidding private citizens keeping gold and silver bullions and coins, which resulted in dollar devaluation by about 30% and investors in precious metals losing large amounts of money. The executive order requiring surrender of the Treasury gold certificates is in fact the government's failure to pay on these obligations. While the US or Russia control their own currency, European countries don't and cannot devaluate the currency as they wish in order to ease their debts. Thus in Euro-zone the devaluation solutions taken by Russia and the US are not possible. Cyprus cannot devaluate its currency, and even if it could - its external debt would not likely to be denominated in it (actually, Russian debt isn't denominated in Rubles, that's why they forced restructuring of their own debt, but devaluating the currency helped raising the money from the citizens similarly to the US seizing the gold in 1930's). Thus, in case of Cyprus or other Euro-zone countries, direct taxes is the only way to raise money from the citizens. So if you're in a country that controls its own currency (such as the US, Russia, Argentina, etc) and especially if the debt is denominated in that currency (mainly the US) - you should be worried more of inflation than taxes. But if you're in the Euro-zone and your country is in troubles (which is almost any country in the zone) - you can expect taxes. How to avoid that? Deal with your elected officials and have them fix your economy, but know that you can't just ""erase"" the debt through inflation as the Americans can (and will), someone will have to pay."
This often happens across the board in a situation like this, but there are certain key drivers that can cause other prices to increase (things like the price of oil, which affects transportation costs and thus the price to have anything shipped anywhere, whether it be the raw materials you need or the finished product you're selling). With the injection of so much money into the economy, rampant inflation would normally be the result. However, there are other variables at play in this particular situation. Chief among them is that no matter how much cash is in the economy, most of it is being sat on, in the form of cash or other ""safe havens"" like durable commodities (gold) and T-debt. So, most of the money the Fed is injecting into the economy is not chasing goods; it's repaying debt, replenishing savings and generally being hoarded by consumers and institutions as a hedge against the poor economy. In addition, despite how many dollars are in the economy right now, those dollars are in high demand all around the world to buy Treasury debt (one of the biggest safe havens in the global market right now, so much so that buying T-debt is considered ""saving""). This is why the yields on Treasury bonds and notes are at historic lows; it's bad everywhere, and U.S. Government debt is one of the surest things in the world market, especially now that Euro-bonds have become suspect. Currency Devaluation - This is basically specialized inflation; when there are more dollars in the market than people want to have in order to use to buy our goods and services, demand for our currency (the medium of trade for our goods and services) drops, and it takes fewer Euros, Yen or Yuan to buy a dollar. This can happen even if demand for our dollars inside our own borders is high, and is generally a function of our trade situation; if we're buying more from other countries than they are from us, then our dollars are flooding the currency exchange markets and thus become cheaper because they're easy to get. Again, there are other variables at play here that keep our currency strong. First off, again, it's bad everywhere; nobody's buying anything from anyone (relatively speaking) and so the relative trade deficits aren't moving much.
Andrew Lilico has a likely scenario for when Greece defaults on its sovereign debt: What happens when Greece defaults.   Here are a few things: Every bank in Greece will instantly go insolvent. The Greek government will nationalise every bank in Greece. The Greek government will forbid withdrawals from Greek banks. To prevent Greek depositors from rioting on the streets,   Argentina-2002-style (when the   Argentinian president had to flee by   helicopter from the roof of the   presidential palace to evade a mob of   such depositors), the Greek government   will declare a curfew, perhaps even   general martial law. Greece will redenominate all its debts into “New Drachmas” or whatever   it calls the new currency (this is a   classic ploy of countries defaulting) The New Drachma will devalue by some 30-70 per cent (probably around 50 per   cent, though perhaps more),   effectively defaulting 0n 50 per cent   or more of all Greek euro-denominated   debts. As Megan McArdle says, there's more at the link, all depressing. I think you're focusing too much on Greece leaving the euro and not enough on why Greece would leave the euro. Greece would leave the euro precisely so that it could pay back its debt in a new currency worth less than valuable euros. The new currency will devalue, since that's the point of leaving. Along the way the government forces its citizens to take the new currency. The money they have in Greek banks will be converted to the new currency: The citizens don't have a choice to keep their euros.
Because we've gone through a series of bubbles, and have just about completed the second to last bubble, which is fiscal deficits.  We are now on the cusp of initiating the last bubble, a currency bubble, which will likely deteriorate quickly.  Then we will probably have a large scale war.
The ECB has put up about 400BEuro from EU countries. They are borrowing the money at an interests from other EU countries and then lend it to Spain with an interest. Same way the FEd is borrowing money from tax payers for yet another stimulus, QE3.
&gt;but is in no shape to do so due to their massive debt.  Actually it's because they don't have their own printing press for the Euro.   They need to drop out of the Euro, devalue their own currency and take control of their own monetary policy and economy.
"I'll tackle number 2. It's one which many academics dismissed as an impossibility; after all, how could that be rational? What could cause negative yields (ie effectively giving an entity cash and paying for the privilege of doing so!) is something we've experiencing currently: fear. Back in the financial crisis, investors were actually paying to store their cash in treasuries, because of the  fear that if they left it with a bank they might not get it back.   What about the FDIC Insurance you may ask quite logically. The problem is that we're talking about massive entities, like pension funds, asset managers, corporations, who normally would store some (think millions - billions) in cash and cash equivalents (bank accounts, money market funds, short-term paper), they really aren't protected. So, they do what turns out to be the rational thing, which is pay a premium on ""safe assets"" ie US Gov't bills to guarantee you get most of your money back.  The same thing is currently happening with German front-end paper, as Europeans pull their money out of banks/periphery assets and search for safety.  Hope that helped."
This allows both parties to effectively lock in an exchange rate for a given time period (a month in the case of the iShares ETF) and therefore protect themselves against exchange rate fluctuations in that period. There are other forms of currency swaps, equity swaps, etc. that could be used to hedge against currency risk. In general, two parties agree to swap one quantity, like a EUR cash flow, payments of a fixed interest rate, etc. for another quantity, like a USD cash flow, payments based on a floating interest rate, etc. In many cases these are over-the-counter transactions, there isn't necessarily a standardized definition. For example, if the European manager of a fund that tracks the S&P500 Euro Hedged Index is holding euros and wants to lock in an effective exchange rate of 1.4 USD/EUR (above the current exchange rate), he may find another party that is holding USD and wants to lock in the respective exchange rate of 0.71 EUR/USD. The other party could be an American fund manager that manages a USD-price fund that tracks the FTSE. By swapping USD and EUR, both parties can, at a price, lock in their desired exchange rates. I want to clear up something else in your question too. It's not correct that the ""S&P 500 is completely unrelated to the Euro."" Far from it. There are many cases in which the EUR/USD exchange rate and the level of the S&P500 index could be related. For example: Troublesome economic news in Europe could cause the euro to depreciate against the dollar as European investors flee to safety, e.g. invest in Treasury bills. However, this economic news could also cause US investors to feel that the global economy won't recover as soon as hoped, which could affect the S&P500. If the euro appreciated against the dollar, for whatever reason, this could increase profits for US businesses that earn part of their profits in Europe. If a US company earns 1 million EUR and the exchange rate is 1.3 USD/EUR, the company earns 1.3 million USD.
You don't see data because you're not looking. What did congress do right after WW2? They slashed spending. All the plants and factories making war time things were now able to make products that people wanted, and the economy took off and people's standard of living rose across the board.   You're not looking back far enough in the euro story. Greece is not the same economy or government as Germany, and that's part of the problem. Putting them into the same centralized economic system with the same interest rates was bound to fail because they are so different. When Greece joined the euro, they saw a massive boom in economic growth from the access to cheap financing costs. There was certainly no lack of demand then eh? What you're seeing is the result of years of supply side problems created by the european union in their quest to be a centralized global super power. The best thing for Greece to do in their current situation is to leave the shackles of the european union and take the drachma back. In the short run they would face a massive devaluation in the currency, and there would certainly be a few tough weeks or months, but the devaluation would incentivise all types of entrepreneurs and businessmen to build there and utilize cheap labor, there would be a flood of tourism and Greece would soon be on a path towards real productive growth. Their only other option is to face decades of austerity, and prolonged unemployment, where they are no longer working for themselves, and have become modern day serfs. We saw similar scenarios play out in both Iceland and Argentina, and Greece will only be the first of many  to drop the the euro.   www.econlib.org/library/Enc/SupplySideEconomics.html
Rising rates is going to counteract the asset bubble and Draghi &amp; the rest of the ECB are well aware of this. Now that Spain &amp; Italy got their shit together they're going to go full steam ahead.   Also Germany specifically is in trouble given its large companies such as BASF and others are threatened as companies on countries globally are consolidating and a focus by domestic experts on the trade deficit the U.S. holds with Germany.   The European economy will be fine. Certain European assets too, but do not be too sure on the DAX.
What you have suggested would work in Spain, Ireland, US, even Italy but not in Greece. Because the last piece of the cycle of money you outlined earlier would be that Greek economy would expand and the government would collect revenues.  The problem is that public and private projects in Greece are very expensive due to strict labor laws. A good chunk of any public money would end up in bank accounts outside Greece and the resultant building would be of poor quality and little use. In summary the Greek government would be even more debt, the economy would see very little benefit, no increase in tax revenue and you would end up with a useless structure.  Even if Greece hadn’t joined the Euro it would either suffer from inflation or from a crisis similar to this. The global economic crisis has made the situation much worse, it is not the cause of the crisis, at least for Greece.
"Any clearing/ legal experts out there?  Is this possible- and if so, is it that big of a deal? Here are my thoughts:  1. The EU is right to request euros to be cleared on ""home soil"" for sovereignty reasons since 2/3s of euro currency is cleared in London.  2. Moving euro clearing back to the eurozone... would just mirror US regulations.  Whats the big deal?"
"But do you know about a US state risking to go default now or in the past? Ultimately, a US state could go into default.  However, I doubt that such a scenario would be allowed to transpire. This seems to happen to California with some regularity.  That is, risking default.  What would happen is not quite well known: ""There is no provision for a state to go bankrupt,"" Kyser said. ""I don't think anyone really knows what will happen or even if the state will go into receivership if it does default. I can tell you this, officials are looking at all the (current) laws."" (source) I believe that the answer to your question is that it could happen, but likely would not be allowed to occur.  The nature of the EU and US are quite different.  The individual states forming the US are not separate nations.  For better or for worse, the US is a stronger federation than the EU. (Something that is lamented at times when the Feds mess with the purview of the locals.)"
The main driver behind countries not printing themselves out of debt is the fact that it will cripple the economy, destroy citizens savings, asset valuations and piss all the countries trade partners off so much that they may stop doing business with them.  You will have a few different extremes, look at Zimbabwe as an example of a country that just prints money like no ones business.  America is essentially devaluing its currency to compete with China. That annoys the Chinese because their holdings are devalued and as such you then see people moving away from US treasuries into more stable commodities and currencies.
(Occasionally people worry about Wage Inflation, but generally that's considered a result of high Price Inflation.) In order to try to keep this on topic as a ""personal finance"" thing rather than an ""economics"" thing, I guess the question is: Why do you want to know? If you have some assets in a particular currency, you probably care most about what you'll be able to buy with them in the future when you want or need to spend them. In that sense, it's inflation that you're likely caring about the most. If you're trying to figure out which currency to keep your assets in, it largely depends on what currency your future expenses are likely to be in, though I can imagine that one might want to move out of a particular currency if there's a lot of political instability that you're expecting to lead to high inflation in a currency for a time."
"Watching all the news about the Euro, I ""feel"" that maybe the British made the right choice about staying away. I would feel annoyed if I was in one of the other countries (e.g. Ireland) and the deal had been rammed through and imposed on me.  The interesting thing for me - In Ireland's case they need to have a refurendum. I wonder if they will accept this?  I am not an expert on european fiscal union or anything, but this new treaty has been a surprise to me - almost bolting the door after the horse has bolted"
What you do is you create an infomercial where you sell a booklet about junk investments that you are absolutely certian may survive an end of the world scenerio.  Then you sell that booklet to people who fear for their family.  It is basically a tax on stupidity but works because it prays on the fears of the stupid.  It requires moral bankruptcy, but you can end up with quite a bit of money... of course if the Euro does crash then you have a lot of worthless money.
You are right, there is a lot to be said for Europe right now: that they have been delusional for decades, and that now it has finally caught up to them. Why on earth would we want to emulate a continent that has had economic problems so massive they have led to riots? Is your solution really to force broke people to take vacations? How will that lead to economic prosperity?
It's a race to the bottom. Use raising debt ceiling will mean moe helicopter money. Euro is also buying bonds. Uk is idiots having no clue what they're doing so it's also going down. You just have to spread risk to fight inflation and avoid a crash if it happens
"As the European crisis worsened the Swiss Franc (CHF) was seen as a safe currency so Europeans attempted to exchange their Euros for Francs.  This caused the Franc to appreciate in value, against the Euro, through the summer and fall of 2011.  The Swiss government and Swiss Central Bank (SNB) believe mercantilism will create wealth for the citizens of Switzerland.  The Swiss central planners believe that having an abundance of export businesses in Switzerland will create wealth for the citizens of Switzerland as the exporters sell their good and services abroad and pocket a bunch of cash.  Thus, the central planners tend to favor exporters.  From the article: At the start of the year, when exporters urged for government and SNB action, ... The Swiss Central bank continued to intervene in currency markets in 2011 to prevent the CHF from appreciating.  This was done to prevent a decrease in export business.  Finally after many failed attempts they announced the 1.20 peg in September.   The central planners give little consideration to imports, however, since manufacturers in foreign countries don't vote or contribute to the campaign funds of the central planners in Switzerland.  As the CHF strengthened many imported items became very cheap for Swiss citizens.  This was of little concern to the central planners. Currencies are like other goods in a market in that they respond to supply and demand.  Their value can change daily or even hourly based on the continually varying demands of people.  This can cause the exchange rate to rise and fall against other currencies and goods.  Central planners mistakenly believe that the price of certain market items (like currency) should not fluctuate.  The believe there is some magical number that will cause the market to operate ""better"" or ""more correctly"". How does the SNB maintain the peg?  They maintain the peg by printing Francs and purchasing euros."
I shorted at 1.35 recently, I was short from 1.39 and closed at 1.33  There are two collapse scenarios scenarios:  1. Euro collapse all countries revert (very unlikely) eur/usd = 0  2. Euro zone kicks out the PIIGS, eurusd =1.5, the currency now has only the strong countries in it which will reduce all of the eurozone risk.   Scenario two will kill you if you are short.  Short the currency and leverage it up (in fx you can usually get 50:1 leverage).
So if a country forces their savings onto another country, say the U.S., the U.S. would have to absorb those savings somehow. If there were enough productive investments available, then this would be a good thing. But if there aren't enough productive investments available but the savings are still forced upon the U.S. it would seem that it would inevitably lead to some kind of a debt bubble for the U.S.
The British didn't choose to stay away, they were forced out (as was Sweden) by their fucked up policies and being unable to defend their peg against the (trading only at the time) euro currency.    They lost a fuckload in the process and when it became apparent that those that understand market arbitrage wouldn't let up (what killed Mexico/Argentia Peso as well), they backed out.
Maybe the EU really ISN'T really that important, and the financial problems that have resulted from European integration are evidence that state sovereignty and self-determination are what's important... But hey, what do I know, I'm not a rich banker/bureaucrat who profited off the whole imposed mess at the expense of the ordinary working people.
"Just to get the ball rolling, here's an answer: it won't affect you in the slightest. The pound happened to be tumbling anyway.  (If you read ""in the papers"" that Brexit is ""making the pound fall"", that's as valuable as anything else you've ever read in the papers.) Currencies go up and down drastically all the time, and there's nothing you can do about it. We by fluke once bought a house in Australia when that currency was very low; over the next couple years the currency basically doubled (I mean per the USD) and we happened to sell it; we made a 1/2 million measured in USD. Just a fluke. I've had the opposite happen on other occasions over the decades. But... Currency changes mean absolutely nothing if you're in that country. The example from (2) was only relevant because we happened to be moving in and out of Aus. My various Australian friends didn't even notice that their dollar went from .5 to 1 in terms of USD (how could it matter to them?) All sorts of things drastically affect the general economy of a given country. (Indeed, note that a falling currency is often seen as a very good thing for a given nation's economy: conspiracy theorists in the states are forever complaining that ) Nobody has the slightest clue if ""Brexit"" will be good bad or indifferent for the UK. Anything could happen. It could be the beginning of an incredible period of growth for the UK (after all, why does Brussels not want your country to leave - goodwill?) and your house could triple in value in a year. Or, your house price could tumble to half in a year. Nobody has the slightest clue, whatsoever about the effects on the ""economy"" of a country going forward, of various inputs."
Countries like China hold onto our debt so we are obligated to keep importing for them, which their own economy depends on it.  If they call the debt, forcing us to default and essentially destroying our currency, it hurts them too.
"In Europe you can get a huge problem with the financial authorities if you do deals with a daughter company which are not done ""at arm's length"", e.g. by inflated fees or costs.  (This can be classified as fraud, tax evasion or worse.  Obviously, usually details are so complex that almost all investigations end with a deal, but in principle you can get into a lot of trouble.)  This is apparently not a problem in the US, though."
"I would make this a comment but I am not allowed apparently. Unless your continent blows up, you'll never lost all your money.  Google ""EUR USD"" if you want news stories or graphs on this topic.  If you're rooting for your 10k USD (but not your neighbors), you want that graph to trend downward."
It's not really about nation states, the problem is larger than that.  The West who consumes too much, faced off against the East who makes too much.  Seems like everyone's just waiting for the dollar to fail, so some new order can resolve.