The Effect of Weighted Moving Windows on Security Vulnerability Prediction Vulnerability prediction models strive to identify vulnerable modules in large software systems. Consequently, several vulnerability prediction approaches have been proposed to identify such susceptible units by using software metrics, historical data, and machine learning techniques. However, in spite of the key role seasonal trends of vulnerabilities play in estimating the resources needed for developing corrective measures, most of the proffered models fail to examine the trend, level, and seasonality of security vulnerability. To address this lacuna, this paper examines the statistical significance of the annual seasonal patterns and trends in vulnerability discovery using the weighted moving window. Our approach takes into account the chronological order within vulnerability data and assigns different weights of importance to projects in a window to effectively portray current security practices. Specifically, we used three regressionbased models as vulnerability predictors for historical vulnerability data mined from five opensource applications offered by the Common Vulnerability Exposures and the National Vulnerability Database (CVENVD). In addition, we evaluate the performance and reliability of the models with symmetric mean absolute percent error (SMAPE). The preliminary results suggest that weighting the moving window based on Gaussian function yields improved accuracy and the recommended forecasting model is the robust regression.

Measuring the accuracy of software vulnerability assessments: experiments with students and professionals Assessing the risks of software vulnerabilities is a key process of software development and security management. This assessment requires to consider multiple factors (technical features, operational environment, involved assets, status of the vulnerability lifecycle, etc.) and may depend from the assessorxe2x80x99s knowledge and skills. In this work, we tackle with an important part of this problem by measuring the accuracy of technical vulnerability assessments by assessors with different level and type of knowledge. We report an experiment to compare how accurately students with different technical education and security professionals are able to assess the severity of software vulnerabilities with the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (v3) industry methodology. Our results could be useful for increasing awareness about the intrinsic subtleties of vulnerability risk assessment and possibly better compliance with regulations. With respect to academic education, professional training and human resources selections our work suggests that measuring the effects of knowledge and expertise on the accuracy of software security assessments is feasible albeit not easy.