Markov Chain Monte Carlo Based Energy Use Behaviors Prediction of Office Occupants Prediction of energy use behaviors is a necessary prerequisite for designing personalized and scalable energy efficiency programs. The energy use behaviors of office occupants are different from those of residential occupants and have not yet been studied as intensively as residential occupants. This paper proposes a method based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to predict the energy use behaviors of office occupants. Firstly, an indoor electrical Internet of Things system (IEIoTS) for the office scenario is developed to collect the switching state time series data of selected user electrical equipment (desktop computer, water dispenser, light) and the historical environment parameters. Then, the Metropolisxe2x80x93Hastings (MH) algorithm is used to sample and obtain the optimal solution of the parameters for the office occupantsxe2x80x99 behavior function, the model of which includes the energy action model, energy working hours model, and airconditioner energy use behavior model. Finally, comparative experiments are carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The experimental results show that while the mean value performs similarly in estimating the energy use model, the proposed method outperforms the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method on uncertainty quantification with relatively narrower confidence intervals.

Consumption Optimization in an Office Building Considering Flexible Loads and User Comfort This paper presents a multiperiod optimization algorithm that is implemented in a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition system. The algorithm controls lights and air conditioners as flexible loads to reduce the consumption and controls a dishwasher as a deferrable load to implement the load shifting. Several parameters are considered to implement the algorithm for several successive periods in a real building operation. In the proposed methodology, optimization is done regarding user comfort, which is modeled in the objective function related to the indoor temperature in each room, and in the constraints in order to prevent excessive power reduction, according to usersxe2x80x99 preferences. Additionally, the operation cycle of a dishwasher is included, and the algorithm selects the best starting point based on the appliance weights and power availability in each period. With the proposed methodology, the building energy manager can specify the moments when the optimization is run with consideration of the operational constraints. Accordingly, the main contribution of the paper is to provide and integrate a methodology to minimize the difference between the actual and the desired temperature in each room, as a measure of comfort, respecting constraints that can be easily bounded by building users and manager. The case study considers the real consumption data of an office building which contains 20 lights, 10 ACs, and one dishwasher. Three scenarios have been designed to focus on different functionalities. The outcomes of the paper include proof of the performance of the optimization algorithm and how such a system can effectively minimize electricity consumption by implementing demand response programs and using them in smart grid contexts.