Capacity demand at Schiphol Airport in 2023

Amsterdam, 26 February 2018
Commissioned by the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management

Capacity demand at Schiphol Airport in 2023

And the possibilities to free up capacity in the inbound and outbound peaks

Joost Zuidberg
Kjeld Vinkx (To70)

Roetersstraat 29 - 1018 WB Amsterdam - T (+31) 20 525 1630 - F (+31) 020 525 1686 - www.seo.nl - secretariaat@seo.nl
ABN-AMRO IBAN: NL14ABNA0411744356 BIC: ABNANL2A - ING: IBAN: NL96INGB0004641100 BIC: INGBNL2A
KvK Amsterdam 41197444 - BTW NL 003023965 B

“Solid research, Sound advice”
SEO Amsterdam Economics carries out independent applied economic research on behalf of national and
international clients – both public institutions and private sector clients. Our research aims to make a major
contribution to the decision-making processes of our clients. Originally founded by, and still affiliated with, the
University of Amsterdam, SEO Amsterdam Economics is now an independent research group but retains a strong
academic component. Operating on a nonprofit basis, SEO continually invests in the intellectual capital of its staff
by granting them time to pursue continuing education, publish in academic journals, and participate in academic
networks and conferences. As a result, our staff is fully up to date on the latest economic theories and econometric
techniques.

SEO-report nr. 2017-69
ISBN 978-90-6733-909-4
Copyright © 2018 SEO Amsterdam. All rights reserved. Data from this report may be used in articles, studies and syllabi, provided that
the source is clearly and accurately mentioned. Data in this report may not be used for commercial purposes without prior permission
of the author(s). Permission can be obtained by contacting: secretariaat@seo.nl.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

CAPACITY DEMAND AT SCHIPHOL AIRPORT IN 2023

Table of contents
1

Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1

2

The value of the hub operation at Schiphol Airport ................................................. 3
2.1
The economic value of the hub operation of Schiphol Airport .................................... 3

3

4

5

6

7

2.2

The relevance of the hub operation for the Schiphol Airport network ....................... 3

2.3

Peak hourly capacity facilitates the hub operation........................................................... 4

2.4

The public interest of the Schiphol Airport network ...................................................... 4

2.5

Concluding remarks .............................................................................................................. 5

Research method and assumptions .......................................................................... 7
3.1
Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 7
3.2

Traffic distribution rules....................................................................................................... 7

3.3

Assumptions operational measures .................................................................................... 8

Capacity demand of the Schiphol Airport peaks ...................................................... 9
4.1
Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 9
4.2

Peak hourly capacity.............................................................................................................. 9

4.3

Capacity demand in 2016 ...................................................................................................12

4.4

Monthly capacity demand in 2016 ....................................................................................15

4.5

Concluding remarks ............................................................................................................15

Capacity demand in 2023 ......................................................................................... 19
5.1
Introduction .........................................................................................................................19
5.2

Capacity demand during specific peaks ...........................................................................19

5.3

Concluding remarks ............................................................................................................21

The effects of leisure traffic distribution to Lelystad Airport ..................................23
6.1
Introduction .........................................................................................................................23
6.2

The leisure segment explained ..........................................................................................23

6.3

Traffic mix: size of the leisure segment ...........................................................................24

6.4

Peak demand by leisure traffic in 2016 ............................................................................24

6.5

Peak demand by leisure traffic in 2023 ............................................................................27

6.6

Concluding remarks ............................................................................................................29

Operational measures .............................................................................................. 31
7.1
Introduction .........................................................................................................................31

8

7.2

Situation without additional measures .............................................................................32

7.3

Increase peak hourly capacity ............................................................................................33

7.4

Extend peak periods ...........................................................................................................33

7.5

Accommodate slots in adjacent periods ..........................................................................34

7.6

No distribution of leisure flights to Lelystad Airport....................................................35

7.7

Concluding remarks ............................................................................................................36

Conclusions .............................................................................................................37
Leisure destinations ...................................................................................39

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

CAPACITY DEMAND AT SCHIPHOL AIRPORT IN 2023

1

1 Introduction
The Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management has asked SEO Amsterdam
Economics (SEO) and To70 to provide insight in the following issues, against the background of
the Dutch selectivity policy:
• The value and relevance of the hub operation at Schiphol Airport for the Dutch economy;
• The level of capacity demand of the different inbound and outbound peaks during the day;
• The extent to which those peaks are used by leisure traffic;
• To what extent a traffic distribution rule can assist in freeing up capacity during the inbound
and outbound peaks of Schiphol Airport’s hub operation in 2023;
• To what extent additional operational measures can be of assistance if it comes to freeing up
capacity during abovementioned inbound and outbound peak periods.
This report sets out the economic value of the hub operation in Chapter 2, making use of existing
literature on the issue. Chapter 3 outlines the research method and the most important
assumptions. In turn, Chapter 4 shows the current capacity demand, whereas Chapter 5 presents
the capacity demand in 2023. Chapter 6 identifies the leisure segment and shows its presence in
the relevant inbound and outbound peaks of the hub operation. Finally, Chapter 7 shows the
effects of specific operational measures and Chapter 8 sums up the most important conclusions
drawn from the analyses.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

CAPACITY DEMAND AT SCHIPHOL AIRPORT IN 2023

2

3

The value of the hub operation at
Schiphol Airport

On the short-term, the loss of the hub operation at Schiphol Airport results in a decrease in value added of more
than 4 billion euro and the loss of 55,000 jobs. Without connecting passengers most intercontinental destinations
currently served from Schiphol Airport cannot be operated viably. The same holds for an important part of the
European network. To be able to operate a premium hub network of high-quality connections sufficient peak hourly
capacity is essential. In that light, the Dutch government foresees in the implementation of a traffic distribution rule
that aims at the distribution of leisure traffic from the inbound and outbound peaks at Schiphol Airport to Lelystad
Airport in order to free up capacity for the hub operation at Schiphol Airport.

2.1

The economic value of the hub operation of
Schiphol Airport

Recently, Decisio 1 has estimated the value added of Schiphol Airport at approximately 9 billion
euro and 114,000 jobs (95,000 fte) (direct and indirect backward 2). Based on those results, SEO
has estimated that almost 40 per cent of the direct Schiphol Airport network will disappear in a
scenario in which the full hub operation is ceased (“non-hub scenario”). 3 In that scenario only
routes with sufficient local demand remain. This network deterioration leads to a decrease in value
added of more than 4 billion euro and 55,000 jobs on the short-run. 4 The negative effects on
consumer welfare as a result of longer travel times and higher ticket prices are more than 630
million euro. 5

2.2

The relevance of the hub operation for the
Schiphol Airport network

The hub operation at Schiphol Airport facilitates the operation of a large number of
(intercontinental) destinations that are not viable with only local traffic. Figure 2.1 shows that
almost all intercontinental routes operated by KLM consist for at least 60 per cent of connecting
passengers. Once again, a substantial number of those routes cannot be viably operated with only
local traffic and are therefore likely to be cancelled if the hub operation at Schiphol Airport
disappears. Moreover, a large part of the European feeder operations also consist of considerable
numbers of connecting passengers. Part of those European feeder operations also runs the risk of
cessation or rationalization in the “non-hub scenario”. SEO estimated the net decrease in the

1
2
3
4
5

See Decisio (2015) – Economisch belang van de mainport Schiphol. Analyse van directe en indirecte economische relaties.
Decisio has not quantified the indirect forward effects. Existing literature points at the positive impact of
aviation on business location. However, the size of such effect is very hard to be made explicit.
Recent examples of dehubbing cases (see e.g. Zurich, Brussels, Milan Malpensa and Budapest) show that a
hub operation should not be taken for granted.
See SEO (2015) – Economisch belang van de hubfunctie van Schiphol. SEO-report 2015-22.
The results of the analyses of the effects on value added and jobs and of the consumer welfare effects are
based on different methodologies and are not comparable and cannot be added up.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

4

CHAPTER 2

number of intercontinental destinations at 26 per cent and at 6 per cent for European destinations
in the “non-hub scenario”. In terms of aircraft movements this is 38 and 39 per cent respectively. 6
On average, KLM’s intercontinental operations consist of 70 per cent connecting
passengers

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

St. Maarten
Paramaribo
Curacao
Aruba
New York
Tel Aviv
San Francisco
Johannesburg
Chengdu
Istanbul
Cape Town
Beijing
Los Angeles
Hangzhou
Singapore
Abu Dhabi
Buenos Aires
Doha
Cairo
Kuala Lumpur
Shanghai
Rio de Janeiro
Fukuoka
Hong Kong
Havana
Gemiddeld
Bangkok
Sao Paulo
Tokyo
Xiamen
Chicago
Dubai
Washington
Khartoum
Mexico City
Seoul
Taipei
Vancouver
Almaty
Montreal
Houston
Delhi
Atlanta
Calgary
Kuwait
Toronto
Nairobi
Kilimanjaro
Dallas
Accra
Osaka
Panama City
Kigali
Damman
Lagos
Harare
Lima
Tehran

Share of connecting (transfer) and local trarffic at KLM operations

Figure 2.1

Lokaal

Destinations

Transfer

Source:

MIDT 2013, analysis SEO Amsterdam Economics.

2.3

Peak hourly capacity facilitates the hub operation

The viability of a hub network depending to a large extent on connecting traffic is very much
related to the quality of the connections offered at the airport. After all, the level of competition is
substantial at most large connecting markets: connecting passengers can often choose between a
large variety of intermediate hub airports. In that sense, it is essential to have sufficient capacity
during the inbound and outbound peaks (waves) of the hub operation. This especially holds for a
hub airport like Schiphol Airport with a relatively small local market, hence a relatively high
dependence on connecting traffic. A peaked coordination of inbound and outbound traffic flows
seamlessly connected to each other is important for maintaining or even gaining market share in
the connecting market and, with that, for the continuity of Schiphol Airport’s hub operation.

2.4

The public interest of the Schiphol Airport network

In the 2009 Luchtvaartnota the Dutch government stresses the importance of an aviation network
of direct intercontinental connections for the Dutch economy. Schiphol Airport is the only airport
in The Netherlands that can facilitate such network. In turn, the Dutch government considers the
direct intercontinental aviation network at Schiphol Airport as a public interest. 7 Based on that, the
6
7

See SEO (2015) – Economisch belang van de hubfunctie van Schiphol. SEO-report 2015-22.
See Commissie Shared Vision (2012) - Advies over uitvoering selectiviteitsbeleid Schiphol.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

THE VALUE OF THE HUB OPERATION AT SCHIPHOL AIRPORT

5

Dutch government considers it is justified to take measures that intervene on the aviation network
at Schiphol Airport in order to respond to the current and future capacity scarcity in the inbound
and outbound peaks of the hub operation and the growth limits following from environmental
preconditions. For the further development of the hub operation especially the former is relevant.
Increasing the annual capacity at Schiphol Airport eventually does not lead to an increase in peak
hourly capacity, but merely to additional capacity during the off-peak periods.

2.5

Concluding remarks

Since it is assumed that the possibilities to increase the current peak hourly capacity are limited, the
Dutch government foresees, in the light of the public interest it connects to the network
development of Schiphol Airport and the hub operation’s dependence on connecting traffic, to
free up capacity in the most important inbound and outbound peaks by implementing a traffic
distribution rule. 8 The remainder of this report presents the capacity demand in 2016 (Chapter 4)
and 2023 (Chapter 5), sheds light on the presence of leisure traffic in the inbound and outbound
peaks (Chapter 6) and reflects on the operational measures (Chapter 7) that can additionally free
up capacity in the inbound and outbound peaks.

8

This study does not reflect in any way on the legal validity of the traffic distribution rule.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

CAPACITY DEMAND AT SCHIPHOL AIRPORT IN 2023

3

7

Research method and assumptions

The research method used in the analysis is based on two steps. Firstly, the effects on the intensity of use of the
inbound and outbound peaks of implementing a traffic distribution rule is presented. Secondly, the effects of several
operational measures is mapped. This chapter sheds light on the most important assumptions and briefly outlines the
different research steps.

3.1

Introduction

This chapter outlines the research steps and the most important assumptions used. It distinguishes
between (1) the implementation of a traffic distribution rule that foresees in the accommodation
of leisure traffic at Lelystad Airport and (2) operational measures to free up the inbound and
outbound peaks at Schiphol Airport.

3.2

Traffic distribution rules

First of all, the analysis presents the current capacity demand of the separate 20 minutes brackets
at Schiphol Airport related to the declared capacity by Airport Coordination Netherlands (ACNL).
The analysis distinguishes between inbound and outbound capacity. After all, both the inbound
and outbound capacity per 20 minutes bracket differ over the day as a result of the peaked traffic
distribution at Schiphol Airport. The capacity demand is mapped for the 15th busiest day in 2016
(Thursday 28th of July), 9 which is an accepted reference point to recognize the relative large capacity
burden at specific (summer) peak periods without overestimating by taking the busiest day. 10
For the estimation of traffic in 2023 the following assumptions have been used:
• Up to and including 2020 the number of aircraft movements is maximized at 500,000 annually.
In practice, this implies that the growth rate of traffic between 2016 (approximately 479,000
aircraft movements) and 2020 is 4.4 per cent for the full period.
• From 2021 the assumed annual growth rate is 2.8 per cent.
• Based on the assumptions above, the average annual growth rate between 2016 and 2023 is 1.8
per cent.
• The same growth rate is applied to all traffic segments.
• In 2023, the annual capacity at Lelystad Airport is assumed to be 10,000 aircraft movements.
• Based on the capacity demand in the different inbound and outbound peaks the following
prioritizing with respect to the distribution of leisure traffic to Lelystad Airport is used in the
analyses, in which firstly the traffic distribution rule is applied to the waves (period including
inbound and outbound peak) with the highest capacity demand (capacity demand between
parentheses):
• Wave 2: inbound peak 07:50 – 09:19 and outbound peak 09:20 – 10:39 (92.1 per cent);

9
10

The 30th busiest day of 2016 (Wednesday 17th of August) shows a similar picture if it comes to capacity
utilization.
The busiest day can be the result of incidental events.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

8

CHAPTER 3

•
•
•
•
•

3.3

Wave 6: inbound peak 18:20 – 19:59 and outbound peak 20:00 – 21:39 (89.9 per cent);
Wave 3: inbound peak 11:00 – 11:39 and outbound peak 11:40 – 12:39 (86.8 per cent);
Wave 4: inbound peak 13:00 – 13:59 and outbound peak 14:00 – 14:59 (85.9 per cent);
Wave 5: inbound peak 15:20 – 16:19 and outbound peak 16:20 – 17:59 (75.6 per cent);
Outbound peak 07:00 – 07:19 (100 per cent). 11

Assumptions operational measures

In the analysis of the effects on capacity demand of additional operational measures, we distinguish
between the following measures: 12
• Increase peak hourly capacity: The ability to increase the declared peak hourly capacity for the short
term is limited. It is expected that a capacity gain of 1 to 2 movements per hour might be
possible within the next years, e.g. if the work load can be reduced.
• Increase the number of peak periods. During the period 7:00 – 23:00, most periods are currently
identified as an inbound or outbound peak. Each outbound peak period is separated from a
preceding inbound peak mode period by a 20 minutes off peak mode (“firebreaks”). During
the period 7:00 – 23:00, only the period 21:40 – 23:00 is not used as a peak mode. However,
the current and expected traffic volume for this period is limited. An additional peak mode
during this period will not free up capacity. Therefore, this measure is not analysed in more
detail.
• Extend (specific) peak periods. Inbound peak mode period 6 currently ends at 20:00, with high
traffic volumes towards the end of the peak period. The subsequent outbound peak mode starts
at 20:00, with a relative low number of departures in the first 20 minutes interval. An extension
of the inbound peak mode towards 20:20 will free up capacity during the inbound peak. The
subsequent outbound peak will then start at 20:20 and is followed by an off peak mode until
23:00. If needed, the outbound peak can be extended.
• Accommodate slots in adjacent periods. Peak period 2 is the most busy period during the day, with a
limited share of leisure traffic. If the capacity demand cannot be met during that period,
remaining slots in adjacent periods might be used.

11
12

Although the small early morning outbound peak is fully utilized, it is assumed to be of less importance for
the hub operation, since it does not follow an inbound peak and therefore is not part of a connecting wave.
It should be stressed that that the operational and economic feasibility of the measures has not been
assessed.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

CAPACITY DEMAND AT SCHIPHOL AIRPORT IN 2023

4

9

Capacity demand of the Schiphol Airport
peaks

Air Traffic Control the Netherlands determines the general peak hourly capacity, while ACNL further details the
general peak hourly capacity into inbound and outbound declared capacity per 20 minutes bracket. The analysis of
the current capacity demand of the inbound and outbound peaks at Schiphol Airport especially shows scarcity in the
morning peak between 07:50 and 10:39 and the evening peak between 18:20 and 21:39. In the mid-day peak
periods show some room for further growth. These findings raise the question to what extent the capacity scarcity will
be increased in 2023 and, in turn, to what extent distribution of leisure traffic to Lelystad Airport and operational
measures lead to freeing up inbound and outbound peak capacity.

4.1

Introduction

This chapter sheds light on the determination of the peak hourly capacity of Schiphol Airport, in
which inbound and outbound capacity is distinguished per 20 minutes bracket. In turn, the results
in this chapter shows the level of capacity demand per bracket, based on scheduled arrival and
departing times as documented by Schiphol Airport. The results are presented at the 20 minutes
bracket level, since ACNL publishes the capacity declaration at that level as well.

4.2

Peak hourly capacity

This section describes the “peak hourly capacity” at Schiphol Airport and how the peak hourly
capacity is determined.
Definition
The declared peak hourly capacity by the ACNL, reflects the “maximum number of movements by
commercial aviation”. This declared capacity is a “sustainable” capacity figure, taking into account
the differences in capacity per runway combination, the availability of runway combinations due to
e.g. weather conditions, the capacity per runway combination and other operational influences.
The declared capacity is being used for slot declaration. Based on the circumstances, the actual peak
hourly capacity will be equal or higher than the declared capacity, but there will also be situations
that the actual capacity is lower.
Declared capacity versus actual capacity
Air Traffic Control The Netherlands has defined the peak hourly capacity numbers for the most
common runway combinations at Schiphol Airport. A distinction is made between:
• Night mode: 23:00 – 06:00 local time (LT);
• Off peak mode: 1 runway for arrivals and 1 runway for departures;
• Inbound peak or arrival peak mode: 2 runways for arrivals and 1 runway for departures;
• Outbound peak of departure peak mode: 1 runway for arrivals and 2 runways for departures.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

10

CHAPTER 4

Multiple runway combinations are available for each situation. Which runway and runway
combinations are used, is primarily determined by the weather. Environmental rules at Schiphol
Airport play a significant role in selecting the runway combination. This noise preferential runway
selection is done on the basis of a preference order of runway combinations. The runway
dependencies that apply to a runway combination determine the differences in capacity between
runway combinations, where one runway combination offers higher capacity than the other.
Per runway combination, the runway capacity is given by visual and cloud base conditions. At best,
traffic managers can use visual observations to separate aircraft. When visibility is limited, for
example low clouds, the separation distance between the aircraft increases, which results in a lower
capacity. A distinction is made between "good", "marginal" and "limited visual conditions".
There may be (large) capacity differences between the various weather situations. The extent to
which these differences are predictable and the frequency during a season or year are of major
importance for the capacity numbers to be used for a robust flight scheduling. The relationship
between the number of landings per hour, the sustainability and capacity is shown in figure 4.1 The
declared capacity relative to the actual capacity that can be provided for x percent of the time
determines the sustainability of the capacity.
Figure 4.1

Source:

Capacity graph

Luchtruimvisie, 2012.

Current declared peak hourly capacity
During the day time period (7:00 – 23:00 local time) the slot declaration is based on a 2+1 runway
use, which means subsequent inbound peaks and outbound peaks. The following rules apply for
the capacity numbers per 20 minutes intervals (see table 4.1):
• Arrival and departure peak modes should not overlap. Each arrival peak mode period shall be
separated from a preceding departure peak mode period by an off peak mode period.
• Between the first departure and arrival peak, the duration of this off peak mode period should
be at least 30 minutes. The duration of this off peak mode period between any other departure
and arrival peak shall be at least 20 minutes.
• Each departure and arrival peak mode shall have a minimal duration of 40 minutes, except for
the first peak mode at 05:00 UTC, which has a minimum duration of 20 minutes.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

CAPACITY DEMAND OF THE SCHIPHOL AIRPORT PEAKS

Table 4.1

11

Declared capacities per hour and per 20 minutes bracket

Operational mode

Local time

Nominal hourly capacity
Inbound
Outbound

Nominal capacity per 20 minutes 13
Inbound
Outbound

Outbound peak

07:00 – 22:40

36

74

12

25

Inbound peak mode

07:00 – 22:40

68

38

23

13

Off peak mode

06:00 – 06:40

24

30

8

10

06:40 – 07:00

24

40

8

14

07:00 – 22:40

36

40

12

14

22:40 – 23:00

36

25

12

9

23:00 – 06:00

24

25

8

9

Night mode

Source:

Airport Coordination Netherlands - Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol summer 2018.

Table 4.1 indicates that the total capacity during an outbound peak is 110 aircraft movements per
hour and the total capacity during an inbound peak is 106 aircraft movements per hour. During
the night, the capacity is significantly lower. ACNL sets the capacity allocation for Schiphol Airport
over the day. In addition to the factors mentioned above, the capacity allocation takes into account
the peaks in traffic throughout the day.
Double peaks: 2 + 2 runway use
The use of two runways for departures and two runways for arrivals, the so-called 2 + 2 runway
use, is not part or the capacity allocation of ACNL. In practice, 2 + 2 runway use can be used, in
situations with more departures during the inbound peak or more arrivals during the outbound
peak. Based on the circumstances, the use of an extra runway can result in a higher capacity in, but
it is not always a "linear increase" of capacity by simply adding the extra capacity of the extra
runway. Adding an additional runway can lead to:
• Additional runway dependencies;
• The occurrence of additional conflicts in the air;
• Achieving the maximum capacity of the Terminal Maneuvering Area (TMA) or Area Control
Centers (ACC).
Depending on the current runway combination, 2 + 2 runway use relative to 2 + 1 runway use can
result in:
1. A significant increase in total capacity (usually with independent runway combinations);
2. A small increase in total capacity (usually with dependent runway combinations);
3. A lower total capacity, for example in case the Buitenveldertbaan (09) is used as second
departure runway next to the Polderbaan (36L), using the Aalsmeerbaan (36R) and
Zwanenburgbaan (36C) as landing runways.
It should be noted that although the total capacity increase for situations 1 and 2 is only caused by
an increase of the outbound capacity when deploying an additional (second) runway for departures
during an inbound peak or an increase in inbound capacity when deploying an additional runway
for arrivals during an outbound peak. These increases may be accompanied by a decrease in
inbound capacity during the inbound peak and outbound capacity during the outbound peak.
13

At the 20 minutes level de capacity for some brackets is 1 lower to end up at the available peak hourly
capacity, which is defined at the 1 hour level. To illustrate: an hour that consists of three 20 minutes brackets
labelled as inbound peak consists of two 20 minutes brackets with a capacity of 23 and one 20 minutes
bracket with a capacity of 22. After all, 23+23+22 = 68, the declared peak hourly capacity.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

12

CHAPTER 4

For the current 2 + 1 runway use system, a fourth runway can be used to accommodate
disturbances. Temporary 2 + 2 runway use can provide sufficient capacity in such situations to
avoid (extra) delays, which would not be possible with 2 + 1 runway use. The 2008 Alders
agreements is based on 2 + 1 slot declaration, with a limited use of 2 + 2 runways.
For capacity declarations based on a 2 + 2 runway system, constraints occur earlier and more
frequently (more dependencies in runway use) with greater impact in capacity than for a 2 + 1
runway system. The reliability of high capacity is therefore relatively low in a 2 + 2 runway system.

4.3

Capacity demand in 2016

Figure 4.2 and figure 4.3 show the declared capacity per 20 minutes bracket, as published in
ACNL’s most recent capacity declaration. The figures clearly show the peaked pattern of the hub
operation, consisting of a sequence of inbound peaks followed by outbound peaks. This
coordination of inbound and outbound flights leads to high-quality connections.
Figure 4.2

Declared inbound capacity per time bracket 14

30

Inbound capacity per 20 minutes bracket

25

20

15

10

5

06:00-06:19
06:20-06:39
06:40-06:59
07:00-07:19
07:20-07:49
07:50-07:59
08:00-08:19
08:20-08:39
08:40-08:59
09:00-09:19
09:20-09:39
09:40-09:59
10:00-10:19
10:20-10:39
10:40-10:59
11:00-11:19
11:20-11:39
11:40-11:59
12:00-12:19
12:20-12:39
12:40-12:59
13:00-13:19
13:20-13:39
13:40-13:59
14:00-14:19
14:20-14:39
14:40-14:59
15:00-15:19
15:20-15:39
15:40-15:59
16:00-16:19
16:20-16:39
16:40-16:59
17:00-17:19
17:20-17:39
17:40-17:59
18:00-18:19
18:20-18:39
18:40-18:59
19:00-19:19
19:20-19:39
19:40-19:59
20:00-20:19
20:20-20:39
20:40-20:59
21:00-21:19
21:20-21:39
21:40-21:59
22:00-22:19
22:20-22:39
22:40-22:59

0

Source:
Note:

14

Airport Coordination Netherlands - Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis SEO
Amsterdam Economics.
Local time.

At the 20 minutes level de capacity for some brackets is 1 lower to end up at the available peak hourly
capacity, which is defined at the 1 hour level. To illustrate: an hour that consists of three 20 minutes brackets
labelled as inbound peak consists of two 20 minutes brackets with a capacity of 23 and one 20 minutes
bracket with a capacity of 22. After all, 23+23+22 = 68, the declared peak hourly capacity.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

CAPACITY DEMAND OF THE SCHIPHOL AIRPORT PEAKS

Figure 4.3

13

Declared outbound capacity per time bracket14

Outbound capacity per 20 minutes bracket

30

25

20

15

10

5

06:00-06:19
06:20-06:39
06:40-06:59
07:00-07:19
07:20-07:49
07:50-07:59
08:00-08:19
08:20-08:39
08:40-08:59
09:00-09:19
09:20-09:39
09:40-09:59
10:00-10:19
10:20-10:39
10:40-10:59
11:00-11:19
11:20-11:39
11:40-11:59
12:00-12:19
12:20-12:39
12:40-12:59
13:00-13:19
13:20-13:39
13:40-13:59
14:00-14:19
14:20-14:39
14:40-14:59
15:00-15:19
15:20-15:39
15:40-15:59
16:00-16:19
16:20-16:39
16:40-16:59
17:00-17:19
17:20-17:39
17:40-17:59
18:00-18:19
18:20-18:39
18:40-18:59
19:00-19:19
19:20-19:39
19:40-19:59
20:00-20:19
20:20-20:39
20:40-20:59
21:00-21:19
21:20-21:39
21:40-21:59
22:00-22:19
22:20-22:39
22:40-22:59

0

Source:
Note:

Airport Coordination Netherlands - Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis SEO
Amsterdam Economics.
Local time.

Figure 4.4 (arrivals) and figure 4.5 (departures) show the confrontation of the scheduled 2016 traffic
for the 15th busiest day of the year with the declared capacity as shown above. Especially the
inbound peak between 07:50 and 08:59 is almost fully utilized. The same holds for the final three
brackets of the evening inbound peak between 19:00 and 19:59. Some individual 20 minutes
brackets of the mid-day inbound peaks are almost fully utilized as well (between 11:00 and 11:19,
between 13:20 and 13:39 and between 15:40 and 15:59). Still, in those inbound peaks adjacent 20
minutes brackets offer some available peak capacity.
De demand in the outbound peaks is highest between 09:20 and 10:19 and at the end of the day
between 20:20 and 21:39. 15 In other outbound peak periods, single 20 minutes brackets show high
levels of demand (between 14:20 and 14:39 and between 16:40 and 16:59), but also here adjacent
brackets offer some spare capacity. In general, the outbound peaks show more spare capacity for
departures than the inbound peaks for arrival. This especially holds for the mid-day outbound
peaks, but also at the edges of the morning and evening peak there is more spare outbound than
inbound capacity. To a large extent this is related to the slightly higher peak hourly capacity for
outbound flights (74) than for inbound flights (68) during the respective peaks.

15

The single outbound peak bracket between 07:00 and 07:20 also shows a high utilization. However, since
this peak is not part of a coordinated inbound and outbound peak (wave), it has not the highest priority if
it comes to freeing up peak capacity.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

06:00-06:19
06:20-06:39
06:40-06:59
07:00-07:19
07:20-07:49
07:50-07:59
08:00-08:19
08:20-08:39
08:40-08:59
09:00-09:19
09:20-09:39
09:40-09:59
10:00-10:19
10:20-10:39
10:40-10:59
11:00-11:19
11:20-11:39
11:40-11:59
12:00-12:19
12:20-12:39
12:40-12:59
13:00-13:19
13:20-13:39
13:40-13:59
14:00-14:19
14:20-14:39
14:40-14:59
15:00-15:19
15:20-15:39
15:40-15:59
16:00-16:19
16:20-16:39
16:40-16:59
17:00-17:19
17:20-17:39
17:40-17:59
18:00-18:19
18:20-18:39
18:40-18:59
19:00-19:19
19:20-19:39
19:40-19:59
20:00-20:19
20:20-20:39
20:40-20:59
21:00-21:19
21:20-21:39
21:40-21:59
22:00-22:19
22:20-22:39
22:40-22:59

Outbound capacity utilization per 20 minutes bracket
06:00-06:19
06:20-06:39
06:40-06:59
07:00-07:19
07:20-07:49
07:50-07:59
08:00-08:19
08:20-08:39
08:40-08:59
09:00-09:19
09:20-09:39
09:40-09:59
10:00-10:19
10:20-10:39
10:40-10:59
11:00-11:19
11:20-11:39
11:40-11:59
12:00-12:19
12:20-12:39
12:40-12:59
13:00-13:19
13:20-13:39
13:40-13:59
14:00-14:19
14:20-14:39
14:40-14:59
15:00-15:19
15:20-15:39
15:40-15:59
16:00-16:19
16:20-16:39
16:40-16:59
17:00-17:19
17:20-17:39
17:40-17:59
18:00-18:19
18:20-18:39
18:40-18:59
19:00-19:19
19:20-19:39
19:40-19:59
20:00-20:19
20:20-20:39
20:40-20:59
21:00-21:19
21:20-21:39
21:40-21:59
22:00-22:19
22:20-22:39
22:40-22:59

Inbound capacity utilization per 20 minutes bracket

14
CHAPTER 4

Figure 4.4

Source:

Note 1:
Note 2:

Figure 4.5

Source:

Note 1:
Note 2:

The inbound capacity demand during inbound peaks is especially high between 07:50
and 08:59 and between 19:00 and 19:59

30
Arrivals
30

25
Inbound capacity
25

20
20

15
15

10
10

5
5

0
0

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis SEO Aviation
Economics.
Local time.
The red bars represent scheduled traffic at the 15th busiest day in 2016 (28th of July).

The outbound capacity demand during outbound peaks is especially high at the start
and at the end of the day

30
Departures
Outbound capacity
30

25
25

20
20

15
15

10
10

5
5

0

0

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis SEO Aviation
Economics.
Local time.
The red bars represent scheduled traffic at the 15th busiest day in 2016 (28th of July).

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

CAPACITY DEMAND OF THE SCHIPHOL AIRPORT PEAKS

4.4

15

Monthly capacity demand in 2016

Table 4.1 shows the capacity demand throughout the year. Not only does it show the brackets in
which the capacity demand is highest, it also shows the differences in capacity demand between
the months. The table presents the brackets in red if demand is higher than 95 per cent of the
declared capacity. In such brackets, there is very limited room to grow. Also in the blue brackets
(between 90 and 95 per cent demand) the possibilities for further growth are fairly limited.
Furthermore, the black hatched brackets reflect the different inbound and outbound peaks. During
the busy summer months, there are more brackets in which the unused capacity is scarce. To a
large extent this is caused by the seasonality of the leisure segment. However, also in the less
congested winter months, there are several brackets with limited capacity available. Again, this
especially holds for the morning and evening peaks.

4.5

Concluding remarks

Especially in the inbound and outbound peaks between 07:50 and 10:39 and in the evening between
18:20 and 21:39, the available capacity is scarce. In many 20 minutes brackets, the declared capacity
is almost fully utilized. In this light, it is relevant to assess the possibilities to free up capacity in the
inbound and outbound peaks with the highest capacity demand, which might enhance the facility
of Schiphol Airport’s hub function. The remainder of the report focuses on the capacity scarcity
in 2023 (Chapter 5), the role a traffic distribution rule can play in freeing up capacity in the peaks
(Chapter 6) and the role operational measures can play in additionally creating possibilities for
further growth in the peaks (Chapter 7).

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

16

Table 4.2

Bracket

CHAPTER 4

Capacity scarcity is substantially more profound during the summer season
Capacity demand in 2016
January
February
A
D
A
D

March
A

April
A

D

May
A

D

June
A

D

D

06:00-06:19

46.4%

10.0%

39.7%

9.0%

46.4%

8.7%

44.6%

30.0%

47.5%

43.0%

43.8%

44.3%

06:20-06:39

54.4%

11.6%

53.0%

11.0%

49.6%

15.8%

61.7%

31.7%

67.1%

51.3%

63.8%

48.3%

06:40-06:59

94.4%

26.5%

98.3%

28.3%

104.0%

30.6%

107.9%

51.7%

117.9%

65.2%

114.6%

60.7%

07:00-07:19

92.2%

41.7%

100.3%

41.2%

94.9%

47.4%

119.4%

62.1%

116.4%

68.5%

106.4%

65.9%

07:20-07:49

76.2%

61.3%

90.6%

76.2%

100.9%

86.3%

123.1%

96.2%

130.0%

109.2%

128.3%

107.8%

07:50-07:59

80.4%

32.3%

84.3%

54.6%

83.9%

58.6%

86.1%

50.6%

87.0%

62.2%

85.8%

49.4%

08:00-08:19

88.8%

56.6%

94.9%

67.4%

95.0%

64.5%

92.0%

60.3%

97.5%

69.0%

95.1%

67.4%

08:20-08:39

94.4%

53.1%

93.4%

63.7%

96.5%

70.0%

101.2%

77.2%

98.6%

79.5%

96.1%

74.1%

08:40-08:59

81.7%

46.2%

80.6%

50.6%

86.7%

62.6%

94.1%

108.6%

90.3%

115.0%

88.5%

110.0%

09:00-09:19

48.1%

30.5%

49.8%

44.3%

59.7%

49.9%

66.5%

64.1%

69.3%

68.7%

66.5%

79.0%

09:20-09:39

60.5%

44.8%

66.7%

50.1%

63.7%

47.7%

76.9%

50.3%

88.3%

60.5%

83.6%

53.7%

09:40-09:59

68.5%

89.4%

74.7%

88.6%

67.7%

84.9%

76.7%

86.8%

82.5%

81.5%

82.5%

78.8%

10:00-10:19

70.4%

84.4%

77.6%

86.3%

80.4%

83.5%

86.7%

78.0%

90.0%

77.2%

85.0%

77.6%

10:20-10:39

84.4%

86.1%

83.9%

88.8%

91.4%

88.0%

100.8%

80.4%

100.8%

84.5%

97.5%

85.7%

10:40-10:59

85.2%

143.8%

79.3%

151.0%

89.8%

145.4%

117.5%

121.2%

118.3%

131.2%

118.1%

132.1%

11:00-11:19

59.3%

103.0%

66.1%

104.5%

64.7%

103.5%

66.1%

92.1%

76.1%

103.6%

73.0%

99.0%

11:20-11:39

56.9%

58.8%

58.2%

66.0%

67.5%

71.5%

76.5%

74.1%

87.4%

72.8%

79.0%

72.6%

11:40-11:59

72.6%

34.8%

78.4%

35.3%

74.5%

37.2%

88.3%

52.3%

101.1%

53.2%

114.2%

48.9%

12:00-12:19

71.8%

35.1%

68.7%

38.3%

70.4%

44.4%

82.2%

67.3%

94.2%

70.7%

93.3%

66.3%

12:20-12:39

63.4%

51.5%

71.0%

55.2%

64.5%

64.4%

81.4%

74.3%

86.7%

80.8%

89.2%

74.8%

12:40-12:59

86.6%

101.4%

102.3%

107.1%

98.9%

110.8%

126.4%

120.5%

122.5%

129.5%

118.9%

129.0%

13:00-13:19

67.9%

76.4%

75.3%

81.7%

82.0%

88.3%

88.8%

97.9%

92.8%

105.1%

80.1%

107.7%

13:20-13:39

63.3%

72.8%

67.2%

85.1%

73.8%

93.3%

87.4%

98.3%

95.3%

109.7%

89.2%

109.2%

13:40-13:59

42.1%

76.9%

41.7%

75.9%

42.1%

79.7%

42.5%

98.2%

51.7%

110.5%

59.3%

110.3%

14:00-14:19

76.6%

29.6%

79.3%

32.9%

71.5%

37.8%

70.0%

51.8%

82.8%

59.0%

84.4%

59.6%

14:20-14:39

52.2%

49.5%

52.6%

50.8%

50.3%

56.9%

55.6%

68.7%

71.4%

74.0%

74.4%

66.0%

14:40-14:59

66.7%

63.9%

70.7%

70.5%

69.6%

71.2%

65.6%

81.9%

77.2%

77.9%

75.3%

70.4%

15:00-15:19

100.8%

108.1%

100.0%

112.1%

109.1%

117.1%

115.3%

117.1%

108.9%

133.6%

101.4%

126.4%

15:20-15:39

58.3%

92.8%

71.5%

87.5%

83.6%

91.3%

85.9%

95.6%

94.6%

104.1%

82.6%

103.8%

15:40-15:59

45.2%

70.5%

49.2%

80.1%

62.6%

78.9%

87.7%

68.2%

90.3%

87.9%

84.8%

89.2%

16:00-16:19

32.4%

44.2%

34.8%

45.9%

36.5%

56.1%

35.9%

63.1%

44.1%

75.6%

49.4%

82.8%

16:20-16:39

42.7%

44.8%

42.8%

43.2%

41.7%

40.5%

50.8%

46.1%

60.8%

51.1%

62.2%

47.6%

16:40-16:59

46.8%

64.1%

55.2%

64.3%

61.8%

67.6%

65.6%

78.0%

79.7%

77.7%

81.1%

74.8%

17:00-17:19

53.8%

67.9%

58.6%

70.8%

61.3%

74.2%

61.1%

79.6%

66.9%

84.0%

65.6%

79.6%

17:20-17:39

49.2%

39.2%

57.5%

40.8%

59.1%

43.4%

62.5%

48.7%

80.3%

56.8%

69.7%

56.7%

17:40-17:59

53.5%

36.4%

63.2%

37.1%

67.7%

39.4%

100.3%

44.9%

104.4%

51.6%

101.4%

49.5%

18:00-18:19

51.9%

46.1%

54.3%

53.7%

72.3%

60.1%

96.1%

71.2%

100.8%

80.5%

101.1%

75.2%

18:20-18:39

43.3%

42.7%

48.0%

45.1%

52.3%

54.1%

58.1%

67.9%

62.3%

73.1%

54.6%

73.3%

18:40-18:59

68.2%

44.2%

73.6%

48.8%

73.8%

46.2%

80.7%

63.1%

85.1%

68.7%

68.6%

76.7%

19:00-19:19

93.8%

49.2%

93.7%

62.1%

99.1%

61.6%

98.3%

82.5%

98.2%

85.6%

90.2%

85.8%

19:20-19:39

86.4%

33.7%

88.3%

39.8%

91.4%

49.1%

98.0%

73.1%

100.4%

86.4%

100.1%

76.9%

19:40-19:59

70.4%

33.7%

67.8%

33.4%

73.2%

37.0%

70.4%

64.1%

81.2%

72.3%

88.0%

70.3%

20:00-20:19

76.3%

22.1%

84.5%

23.7%

82.3%

26.2%

75.8%

29.3%

89.2%

31.3%

108.6%

33.2%

20:20-20:39

62.9%

35.5%

64.7%

37.0%

66.7%

39.9%

73.9%

43.7%

68.9%

50.7%

74.2%

40.7%

20:40-20:59

54.8%

82.3%

56.3%

87.9%

59.4%

90.7%

81.9%

79.4%

84.4%

81.3%

70.8%

72.9%

21:00-21:19

45.2%

90.6%

54.6%

90.8%

51.9%

98.2%

73.6%

92.7%

84.2%

98.3%

76.4%

93.2%

21:20-21:39

33.9%

90.6%

47.4%

91.7%

45.7%

94.7%

58.1%

91.7%

66.4%

98.3%

71.9%

99.9%

21:40-21:59

53.5%

118.0%

52.6%

124.4%

58.1%

129.7%

59.4%

123.3%

60.6%

129.0%

71.1%

144.0%

22:00-22:19

49.5%

50.9%

63.2%

55.2%

62.6%

50.7%

71.1%

72.6%

79.2%

71.2%

79.2%

73.6%

22:20-22:39

35.5%

19.1%

42.5%

26.4%

40.6%

23.3%

40.0%

38.1%

55.3%

40.5%

63.6%

37.4%

22:40-22:59

26.9%

34.8%

33.6%

39.1%

26.9%

35.8%

31.9%

32.6%

41.4%

40.4%

49.7%

53.3%

Source:
Note 1:
Note 2:
Note 3:
Note 4:
Note 5:

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis SEO Aviation
Economics.
Local time.
A = arrivals; D = departures.
Average number of aircraft movements per bracket in the respective month divided by the declared
capacity by ACNL.
Hatched brackets (black) are inbound or outbound peaks.
In the red brackets the capacity demand is higher than 95 per cent. In the blue brackets the capacity
demand is between 90 and 95 per cent.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

CAPACITY DEMAND OF THE SCHIPHOL AIRPORT PEAKS

Uur

Capacity demand in 2016
July
August
A
D
A
D

September
A
D

17

October
A
D

November
A
D

December
A
D

06:00-06:19

56.0%

56.8%

52.4%

52.6%

50.0%

48.7%

51.2%

32.3%

53.8%

12.0%

53.6%

14.2%

06:20-06:39

61.7%

64.2%

62.1%

68.1%

64.6%

56.0%

54.8%

46.5%

57.9%

14.0%

57.3%

19.7%

06:40-06:59

113.3%

60.4%

118.1%

61.1%

106.7%

60.2%

104.0%

49.8%

77.1%

30.5%

77.0%

27.4%

07:00-07:19

111.8%

65.5%

115.3%

72.1%

116.1%

72.5%

112.4%

62.7%

116.9%

49.6%

110.8%

43.1%

07:20-07:49

129.4%

99.4%

125.8%

98.1%

125.6%

110.7%

126.2%

109.2%

112.2%

81.0%

104.5%

75.6%

07:50-07:59

94.7%

48.4%

91.5%

38.2%

90.0%

48.3%

84.2%

56.5%

83.3%

66.7%

76.2%

68.3%

08:00-08:19

98.3%

69.7%

98.3%

69.7%

99.0%

74.9%

89.1%

72.7%

91.3%

68.2%

82.3%

64.0%

08:20-08:39

99.9%

85.6%

99.6%

83.4%

98.1%

80.5%

94.7%

75.2%

93.9%

81.0%

86.4%

75.7%

08:40-08:59

90.3%

109.4%

87.8%

108.9%

92.0%

110.8%

89.1%

110.5%

91.2%

55.0%

84.2%

58.6%

09:00-09:19

64.2%

70.7%

68.2%

74.7%

66.5%

73.1%

72.5%

71.2%

58.1%

43.8%

63.1%

37.7%

09:20-09:39

82.5%

55.6%

78.5%

60.0%

82.5%

57.6%

93.8%

52.5%

66.4%

48.4%

81.7%

41.7%

09:40-09:59

77.7%

79.6%

84.7%

83.7%

83.1%

86.5%

84.4%

82.6%

76.4%

81.6%

75.0%

69.4%

10:00-10:19

87.1%

78.1%

88.4%

77.3%

88.6%

78.1%

84.7%

78.7%

77.5%

88.4%

70.4%

78.3%

10:20-10:39

100.0%

82.3%

103.8%

80.9%

106.1%

84.4%

100.0%

85.5%

85.3%

88.5%

75.5%

82.8%

10:40-10:59

120.2%

134.3%

126.6%

124.2%

119.2%

130.5%

111.6%

135.9%

84.4%

143.3%

83.9%

143.3%

11:00-11:19

79.9%

95.0%

85.1%

95.5%

83.5%

86.4%

78.7%

94.5%

66.8%

100.5%

59.2%

111.7%

11:20-11:39

87.4%

65.5%

87.5%

71.5%

87.5%

75.1%

85.6%

81.4%

74.5%

67.2%

67.7%

76.9%

11:40-11:59

119.9%

44.1%

110.2%

48.5%

102.2%

52.3%

112.4%

48.6%

78.9%

41.6%

96.5%

42.8%

12:00-12:19

91.7%

69.0%

89.0%

69.3%

88.9%

68.9%

81.7%

68.3%

77.2%

55.1%

83.9%

53.8%

12:20-12:39

83.1%

81.5%

93.3%

82.1%

89.4%

82.3%

83.3%

81.0%

77.5%

75.3%

78.8%

69.7%

12:40-12:59

124.7%

143.8%

127.7%

140.8%

134.7%

140.5%

134.7%

136.2%

114.2%

123.1%

87.9%

120.5%

13:00-13:19

81.2%

120.1%

82.7%

119.1%

88.0%

126.4%

82.9%

117.9%

77.7%

90.5%

67.3%

94.5%

13:20-13:39

90.3%

111.8%

96.5%

116.9%

94.8%

108.6%

91.5%

112.1%

75.9%

98.3%

71.4%

93.5%

13:40-13:59

58.9%

121.8%

58.1%

117.9%

48.6%

109.2%

46.6%

115.4%

47.1%

91.0%

49.8%

87.6%

14:00-14:19

87.9%

53.6%

81.7%

58.3%

77.2%

56.5%

75.3%

54.4%

66.7%

45.1%

78.8%

41.8%

14:20-14:39

71.5%

66.5%

71.2%

74.1%

62.5%

72.1%

69.4%

73.3%

60.6%

54.0%

71.8%

52.5%

14:40-14:59

81.2%

75.9%

82.8%

79.6%

81.9%

76.8%

75.0%

78.7%

74.7%

76.0%

76.6%

69.0%

15:00-15:19

104.3%

124.2%

111.8%

133.6%

113.3%

133.6%

112.6%

124.7%

95.6%

127.6%

91.1%

117.1%

15:20-15:39

86.4%

98.3%

91.4%

90.3%

95.4%

101.3%

90.9%

92.1%

81.7%

78.5%

74.8%

89.6%

15:40-15:59

92.7%

88.1%

95.4%

85.6%

92.0%

83.6%

84.3%

79.2%

64.1%

76.9%

62.0%

81.4%

16:00-16:19

48.4%

98.5%

43.9%

87.6%

38.0%

75.9%

43.6%

72.5%

35.5%

60.0%

43.6%

70.7%

16:20-16:39

57.5%

54.3%

50.8%

57.8%

59.4%

59.2%

62.1%

51.7%

45.8%

28.5%

58.6%

33.7%

16:40-16:59

65.6%

73.4%

67.2%

76.6%

71.1%

74.1%

67.5%

78.5%

49.2%

70.0%

47.8%

64.5%

17:00-17:19

61.8%

84.4%

61.3%

84.3%

62.2%

84.3%

69.9%

85.6%

60.8%

76.1%

55.6%

73.9%

17:20-17:39

78.5%

58.1%

79.0%

54.2%

81.7%

54.0%

81.5%

51.5%

66.4%

45.7%

65.3%

44.1%

17:40-17:59

104.3%

44.6%

108.6%

44.8%

103.6%

47.3%

103.8%

48.1%

52.5%

42.4%

55.9%

39.1%

18:00-18:19

111.3%

77.4%

118.0%

77.6%

104.2%

79.3%

106.5%

74.9%

65.0%

62.1%

65.1%

60.8%

18:20-18:39

60.0%

76.9%

61.7%

81.6%

59.0%

71.5%

62.4%

71.2%

61.0%

60.3%

54.8%

54.3%

18:40-18:59

73.9%

72.0%

80.1%

69.7%

82.2%

75.9%

78.3%

66.3%

78.7%

49.0%

68.7%

49.6%

19:00-19:19

97.9%

81.5%

102.6%

97.3%

100.6%

91.9%

96.8%

83.1%

97.6%

64.7%

86.8%

63.7%

19:20-19:39

102.1%

84.9%

104.2%

89.8%

102.6%

74.4%

95.5%

75.9%

91.6%

45.4%

90.5%

42.9%

19:40-19:59

92.1%

75.4%

91.6%

68.0%

86.5%

66.2%

86.3%

70.0%

81.6%

40.5%

74.6%

36.7%

20:00-20:19

119.6%

35.1%

98.9%

38.3%

96.4%

31.6%

92.2%

27.4%

88.3%

26.5%

94.6%

25.4%

20:20-20:39

61.6%

46.6%

64.8%

49.9%

62.2%

46.9%

66.4%

45.5%

66.1%

33.5%

70.4%

31.9%

20:40-20:59

65.6%

80.4%

78.5%

85.8%

64.2%

86.3%

72.3%

83.6%

67.8%

86.8%

64.8%

80.0%

21:00-21:19

80.4%

93.4%

77.2%

97.2%

79.4%

97.7%

79.0%

93.2%

54.7%

95.1%

52.7%

84.1%

21:20-21:39

78.2%

105.0%

77.4%

99.4%

71.9%

99.1%

76.9%

99.0%

38.1%

92.9%

39.0%

92.9%

21:40-21:59

66.7%

146.8%

64.5%

130.9%

68.6%

121.7%

68.8%

120.7%

62.8%

132.1%

58.1%

123.0%

22:00-22:19

80.4%

79.0%

82.3%

78.3%

89.4%

62.9%

89.0%

63.4%

63.6%

56.2%

62.6%

62.7%

22:20-22:39

57.5%

48.6%

52.7%

47.7%

53.9%

41.0%

54.0%

43.8%

40.3%

26.0%

40.9%

32.0%

22:40-22:59

36.6%

51.3%

33.6%

44.4%

38.1%

34.4%

39.8%

36.2%

26.7%

27.0%

29.3%

31.2%

Source:
Note 1:
Note 2:
Note 3:
Note 4:
Note 5:

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis SEO Aviation
Economics.
Local time.
A = arrivals; D = departures.
Average number of aircraft movements per bracket in the respective month divided by the declared
capacity by ACNL.
Hatched brackets (black) are inbound or outbound peaks.
In the red brackets the capacity demand is higher than 95 per cent. In the blue brackets the capacity
demand is between 90 and 95 per cent.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

CAPACITY DEMAND AT SCHIPHOL AIRPORT IN 2023

5

19

Capacity demand in 2023

Especially the inbound peak capacity is insufficient to accommodate aviation demand in 2023. However, also the
outbound peak capacity is lower than the demand in many individual peak brackets. In general, the results show
scarcity during the morning peak between 07:50 and 10:39 (wave 2) and during the evening peak between 18:20
and 21:39 (wave 6). During the mid-day peak periods there is some room in the shoulders of the respective peak
periods. The profound capacity scarcity in 2023 underlines the relevance to investigate the possibilities to free up
capacity by (1) implementing a traffic distribution rule and by (2) operational measures.

5.1

Introduction

This chapter shows the capacity demand in 2023 based on the assumptions described in Chapter
3. In short, the analysis allows for traffic growth above 500,000 annual aircraft movements only
from 2021 onwards. From 2021 until 2023 an annual growth rate of 2.8 per cent has been assumed
for all different segments. This means that in 2023, Schiphol Airport traffic accounts for almost
545,000 aircraft movements without distributing leisure traffic to Lelystad Airport. However, it is
assumed that Lelystad Airport can accommodate 10,000 of the Schiphol Airport aircraft
movements in 2023.

5.2

Capacity demand during specific peaks

Figure 5.1 and figure 5.2 show the capacity demand in 2023 for both inbound and outbound traffic.
First of all, the results show that in the morning (between 07:50 and 10:39) and evening peak
(between 18:20 and 21:39), capacity scarcity is most profound. After all, in the vast majority of the
brackets, the declared capacity is exceeded, with only some capacity left during the edges of the
morning (between 10:20 and 10:39) and evening (between 20:00 and 20:19) outbound peaks.
Morning and evening inbound peaks are completely used in 2023. The three peak periods between
the morning and the evening peak show slightly more available capacity. Still, also during these
peaks there are several brackets in which demand exceeds capacity. At the same time, adjacent
brackets often offer some spare capacity.
In addition, the figures show that especially during the inbound peaks, the lack of spare capacity is
most apparent. During outbound peaks, (1) the capacity exceedances are smaller and (2) more
alternative capacity in adjacent brackets is available. To a large extent, this is related to the slightly
higher peak hourly capacity for outbound traffic (74) than for inbound traffic (68).

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

06:00-06:19
06:20-06:39
06:40-06:59
07:00-07:19
07:20-07:49
07:50-07:59
08:00-08:19
08:20-08:39
08:40-08:59
09:00-09:19
09:20-09:39
09:40-09:59
10:00-10:19
10:20-10:39
10:40-10:59
11:00-11:19
11:20-11:39
11:40-11:59
12:00-12:19
12:20-12:39
12:40-12:59
13:00-13:19
13:20-13:39
13:40-13:59
14:00-14:19
14:20-14:39
14:40-14:59
15:00-15:19
15:20-15:39
15:40-15:59
16:00-16:19
16:20-16:39
16:40-16:59
17:00-17:19
17:20-17:39
17:40-17:59
18:00-18:19
18:20-18:39
18:40-18:59
19:00-19:19
19:20-19:39
19:40-19:59
20:00-20:19
20:20-20:39
20:40-20:59
21:00-21:19
21:20-21:39
21:40-21:59
22:00-22:19
22:20-22:39
22:40-22:59

Outbound capacity utilization per 20 minutes bracket in 2023

06:00-06:19
06:20-06:39
06:40-06:59
07:00-07:19
07:20-07:49
07:50-07:59
08:00-08:19
08:20-08:39
08:40-08:59
09:00-09:19
09:20-09:39
09:40-09:59
10:00-10:19
10:20-10:39
10:40-10:59
11:00-11:19
11:20-11:39
11:40-11:59
12:00-12:19
12:20-12:39
12:40-12:59
13:00-13:19
13:20-13:39
13:40-13:59
14:00-14:19
14:20-14:39
14:40-14:59
15:00-15:19
15:20-15:39
15:40-15:59
16:00-16:19
16:20-16:39
16:40-16:59
17:00-17:19
17:20-17:39
17:40-17:59
18:00-18:19
18:20-18:39
18:40-18:59
19:00-19:19
19:20-19:39
19:40-19:59
20:00-20:19
20:20-20:39
20:40-20:59
21:00-21:19
21:20-21:39
21:40-21:59
22:00-22:19
22:20-22:39
22:40-22:59

Inbound capacity utilization per 20 minutes bracket in 2023

20
CHAPTER 5

Figure 5.1

35

Source:

Note 1:
Note 2:

Figure 5.2

Source:

Note 1:
Note 2:

Scheduled arrivals versus inbound capacity in 2023

40

Arrivals
Inbound capacity
40

35

30
30

25
25

20
20

15
15

10
10

5
5

0
0

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis SEO Aviation
Economics.
Local time.
The red bars represent the increased scheduled traffic at the 15th busiest day in 2016 (28th of July).

Scheduled departures versus outbound capacity in 2023

40
Departures
40

35
Outbound capacity
35

30
30

25
25

20
20

15
15

10
10

5
5

0
0

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis SEO Aviation
Economics.
Local time.
The red bars represent the increased scheduled traffic at the 15th busiest day in 2016 (28th of July).

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

CAPACITY DEMAND IN 2023

5.3

21

Concluding remarks

The capacity demand in 2023 shows substantial capacity shortages during the inbound and
outbound peaks at Schiphol Airport. This especially holds for the inbound and outbound brackets
of the morning and evening peaks. In the peak periods in between there is some alternative capacity
available in adjacent brackets. The results presented in this chapter stress the relevance of mapping
the possibilities of freeing up peak capacity at Schiphol Airport. As said, this study reflects on the
impacts of the implementation of a traffic distribution rule (Chapter 6) and on (additional)
operational measures (Chapter 7) to free up the inbound and outbound peaks.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

CAPACITY DEMAND AT SCHIPHOL AIRPORT IN 2023

6

23

The effects of leisure traffic distribution
to Lelystad Airport

The Dutch government foresees to free up inbound and outbound peak capacity by implementing a traffic distribution
rule that aims at distributing leisure traffic from the Schiphol Airport peaks to Lelystad Airport. The results show
that the traffic distribution rule is able to free up capacity in especially the mid-day connecting waves (3, 4 and 5).
During these periods the leisure presence is highest. In the busy morning peak (wave 2), however, the leisure segment
is largely absent. In the evening peak (wave 6) the number of leisure aircraft movements is limited as well. Therefore,
the possibility to free up capacity during these periods using the traffic distribution rule is rather limited. Given the
still constrained capacity during these important waves of the hub operation, it is worthwhile to have insight in
operational measures to additionally free up capacity in the inbound and outbound peak.

6.1

Introduction

This chapter shows the effects of a traffic distribution rule aiming at freeing up peak capacity at
Schiphol by distributing of leisure traffic to Lelystad Airport. In turn, it focuses on the leisure
capacity use in the different 20 minutes brackets, with special attention to the extent to which
leisure traffic 16 takes place during the inbound and outbound peaks related to the hub operation.

6.2

The leisure segment explained

In consultation with the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management a destination is labeled
as a leisure destination if it complies with the following characteristics, based on Schiphol Airport
2016 traffic data 17:
• Distance < 4000 kilometers from Schiphol Airport: destinations that are located further away can face
operational limitations at Lelystad Airport related to the foreseen length of the runway of the
airport. 18
• Distance > 700 kilometers from Schiphol Airport: at short(er) distance leisure passengers hardly make
use of air travel. If the travel distance is between 600 and 800 kilometers 16 per cent of the
leisure travelers use the aircraft is travel mode. The remaining 84 per cent uses an alternative
travel mode. On the contrary, 62 per cent of the business travelers uses air travel at a travel
distance between 600 and 800 kilometers. Therefore, it is assumed that destinations at less than
700 kilometers from Schiphol Airport are to a large extent used by business travelers and
therefore are not labeled as leisure destination.19
• < 10 per cent connecting passengers: offering connecting flights is an important feature of the hub
operation at Schiphol Airport. Destinations consisting for at least 10 per cent of connecting
16

17
18
19

In this analysis the destinations in Appendix A are considered leisure destinations. The list is based on all
2016 traffic at Schiphol Airport. Destinations that are not served in 2016 are not on the list, but can be
leisure destinations as well.
This study does not reflect in any way on the legal validity of the traffic distribution rule.
Partly, this is also related to the aircraft type used.
See Laplace, I., Chertier, C, Baron, A. & Maczka, M. (2007). ‘Mobility in European countries’, Transactions
of the Institute of Aviation No 205.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

24

CHAPTER 6

passengers are therefore considered as important for the hub operation and, in turn, are not
labeled as leisure destination.
• No capital. Connections with capitals of European countries is expected to be essential for both
business as well as political purposes. These are therefore not labeled as leisure destination.
Next to that, destinations with less than 10 aircraft movements in 2016 are not taken into account,
since these are to a large extent ad hoc (unscheduled) flights that are not a fixed element of the
Schiphol Airport network. Finally, also Dutch “destinations” with at least 10 aircraft movements
are considered leisure destinations, since flights to these airports are in almost all instances part of
a multi-stop operation to leisure destinations in the Mediterranean.

6.3

Traffic mix: size of the leisure segment

In 2016 Schiphol Airport has almost 479,000 aircraft movements. 20 Little over 66,000 are
operations to and from intercontinental destinations (> 4,000 kilometers). Of the almost 400,000
European aircraft movements, more than 300,000 are related to the hub operation (> 10 per cent
connecting traffic), almost 49,000 are operations to or from leisure destinations, while 39,000 are
other European destinations. 21 Finally, Schiphol Airport has almost 18,000 freighter operations in
2016.

6.4

Peak demand by leisure traffic in 2016

Full year 2016
Table 6.1 shows the division of Schiphol Airport’s leisure traffic in 2016 over the day. The black
hatched cells represent the inbound and outbound peaks. For the hub operations those peaks are
important. It is therefore especially relevant to map the extent to which leisure traffic makes use of
those peaks.
Leisure traffic is hardly found in the morning inbound peak. However, the brackets of the mid-day
inbound peaks (between 11:00 and 11:39, between 13:00 and 13:59 and between 15:20 and 16:19)
are for more than 5 per cent used by leisure operations. Also, the first two brackets of the inbound
evening peak (between 18:20 and 18:59) are for more than 5 per cent operated by the leisure
segment.
Outbound leisure traffic is to a large extent also found in the mid-day outbound peaks (between
12:00 and 12:39, between 14:00 and 14:59 and between 16:20 and 17:59). In those brackets the
leisure share is more than 5 per cent. Also the early morning outbound peak between 07:00 and
07:19 is for an important part used by leisure operations. In the busy morning peak between 09:20
and 10:39 and the evening peak between 20:00 and 21:39 the use of capacity by the leisure segment
is rather limited.

20
21

Almost 460,000 are operated between 06:00 and 23:00.
These are European destinations that are not labeled as leisure destination nor do they have more than 10
per cent connecting passengers.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

THE EFFECTS OF LEISURE TRAFFIC DISTRIBUTION TO LELYSTAD AIRPORT

Table 6.1

Size of the leisure segment in 2016 by 20 minutes bracket
Leisuresegment 2016, totaal

Uur

25

Leisuresegment 2016, aandeel capaciteit

Landingen

Starts

Landingen

Starts

06:00-06:19

11

1211

0,4%

33,1%

06:20-06:39

15

1302

0,5%

35,6%

06:40-06:59

14

687

0,5%

13,4%

07:00-07:19

1

919

0,0%

10,0%

07:20-07:49

20

1056

0,3%

14,4%

07:50-07:59

7

73

0,2%

3,3%

08:00-08:19

236

51

2,8%

1,1%

08:20-08:39

6

51

0,1%

1,1%

08:40-08:59

15

286

0,2%

6,5%

09:00-09:19

223

286

2,6%

6,0%

09:20-09:39

164

227

3,7%

2,5%

09:40-09:59

64

270

1,5%

3,0%

10:00-10:19

216

172

4,9%

1,9%

10:20-10:39

139

295

3,2%

3,2%

10:40-10:59

201

76

4,6%

1,5%

11:00-11:19

572

258

6,8%

5,4%

11:20-11:39

485

186

5,8%

3,9%

11:40-11:59

209

217

4,8%

2,4%

12:00-12:19

903

533

20,6%

5,8%

12:20-12:39

482

668

11,0%

7,3%

12:40-12:59

336

588

7,7%

11,5%

13:00-13:19

654

526

7,8%

11,1%

13:20-13:39

633

646

7,9%

14,7%

13:40-13:59

1234

303

14,7%

6,4%

14:00-14:19

313

873

7,1%

9,9%

14:20-14:39

367

902

8,4%

9,9%

14:40-14:59

583

483

13,3%

5,3%

15:00-15:19

446

354

10,2%

6,9%

15:20-15:39

489

485

5,8%

10,2%

15:40-15:59

450

426

5,3%

9,0%

16:00-16:19

825

438

9,8%

9,2%

16:20-16:39

339

920

7,7%

10,1%

16:40-16:59

504

744

11,5%

8,1%

17:00-17:19

589

425

13,4%

4,8%

17:20-17:39

301

440

6,9%

4,8%

17:40-17:59

599

582

13,6%

6,4%

18:00-18:19

321

377

7,3%

7,4%

18:20-18:39

564

672

6,7%

14,1%

18:40-18:59

713

303

8,5%

6,4%

19:00-19:19

250

364

3,1%

8,3%

19:20-19:39

203

411

2,4%

8,6%

19:40-19:59

76

384

0,9%

8,1%

20:00-20:19

263

119

6,0%

1,3%

20:20-20:39

356

58

8,1%

0,6%

20:40-20:59

186

193

4,2%

2,2%

21:00-21:19

83

184

1,9%

2,0%

21:20-21:39

106

143

2,4%

1,6%

21:40-21:59

199

57

4,5%

1,1%

22:00-22:19

707

52

16,1%

1,0%

22:20-22:39

724

57

16,5%

1,1%

22:40-22:59

370

2

8,4%

0,1%

17.766

21.335

6,2%

6,4%

Totaal

Source:
Note 1:
Note 2:
Note 3:

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis SEO Aviation
Economics.
Local time.
Full year 2016 figures.
Black hatched cells represent inbound and outbound peaks.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

26

CHAPTER 6

15th busiest day in 2016
Figure 6.1 (arrivals) and figure 6.2 (departures) present the number of leisure aircraft movements
during every 20 minutes bracket between 06:00 and 23:00 at the 15th busiest day in 2016. They
show a similar picture as presented by table 6.1: leisure arrivals are largely absent in the morning
inbound peak between 07:50 and 09:19, while in the other inbound peak periods to some extent
leisure traffic takes place. During the morning outbound peak between 09:20 and 10:39 hardly any
leisure traffic takes place as well. The number of leisure departures is also limited during the evening
outbound peak between 20:00 and 21:39. However, during the other outbound peaks, leisure traffic
makes use of substantial peak capacity.
Figure 6.1

Hardly any leisure traffic is present in the inbound peak of the early morning wave (2)
30
Arrivals other
Arrivals leisure
Inbound capacity

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0
06:00-06:19
06:20-06:39
06:40-06:59
07:00-07:19
07:20-07:49
07:50-07:59
08:00-08:19
08:20-08:39
08:40-08:59
09:00-09:19
09:20-09:39
09:40-09:59
10:00-10:19
10:20-10:39
10:40-10:59
11:00-11:19
11:20-11:39
11:40-11:59
12:00-12:19
12:20-12:39
12:40-12:59
13:00-13:19
13:20-13:39
13:40-13:59
14:00-14:19
14:20-14:39
14:40-14:59
15:00-15:19
15:20-15:39
15:40-15:59
16:00-16:19
16:20-16:39
16:40-16:59
17:00-17:19
17:20-17:39
17:40-17:59
18:00-18:19
18:20-18:39
18:40-18:59
19:00-19:19
19:20-19:39
19:40-19:59
20:00-20:19
20:20-20:39
20:40-20:59
21:00-21:19
21:20-21:39
21:40-21:59
22:00-22:19
22:20-22:39
22:40-22:59

Inbound capacity utilization per 20 minutes bracket

30

Source:
Note 1:
Note 2:
Note 3:

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis SEO Aviation
Economics.
Local time.
The red bars represent the scheduled non-leisure traffic; the green bars the scheduled leisure traffic.
Traffic at the 15th busiest day in 2016 (28th of July).

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

THE EFFECTS OF LEISURE TRAFFIC DISTRIBUTION TO LELYSTAD AIRPORT

Figure 6.2

Limited leisure traffic is present in the outbound peaks of the early morning wave (2)
and the evening wave (6)
30

30
Departures other
Departures leisure
Outbound capacity
25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0
06:00-06:19
06:20-06:39
06:40-06:59
07:00-07:19
07:20-07:49
07:50-07:59
08:00-08:19
08:20-08:39
08:40-08:59
09:00-09:19
09:20-09:39
09:40-09:59
10:00-10:19
10:20-10:39
10:40-10:59
11:00-11:19
11:20-11:39
11:40-11:59
12:00-12:19
12:20-12:39
12:40-12:59
13:00-13:19
13:20-13:39
13:40-13:59
14:00-14:19
14:20-14:39
14:40-14:59
15:00-15:19
15:20-15:39
15:40-15:59
16:00-16:19
16:20-16:39
16:40-16:59
17:00-17:19
17:20-17:39
17:40-17:59
18:00-18:19
18:20-18:39
18:40-18:59
19:00-19:19
19:20-19:39
19:40-19:59
20:00-20:19
20:20-20:39
20:40-20:59
21:00-21:19
21:20-21:39
21:40-21:59
22:00-22:19
22:20-22:39
22:40-22:59

Outbound capacity utilization per 20 minutes bracket

27

Source:
Note 1:
Note 2:
Note 3:

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis SEO Aviation
Economics.
Local time.
The red bars represent the scheduled non-leisure traffic; the green bars the scheduled leisure traffic.
Traffic at the 15th busiest day in 2016 (28th of July).

6.5

Peak demand by leisure traffic in 2023

Figure 6.3 and figure 6.4 show the capacity demand in 2023, divided by non-leisure traffic, leisure
traffic distributed to Lelystad Airport and leisure traffic still accommodated at Schiphol Airport.
The results show that in 2023 in several peak brackets demand exceeds the declared capacity. This
especially holds for the morning and evening waves and especially regarding inbound traffic. Based
on the priorities with respect to freeing up capacity as set out in Chapter 3, the figures present to
what extent leisure traffic can be accommodated at Lelystad Airport in 2023. The morning wave
between 07:50 and 10:39 and the evening wave between 18:20 and 21:40 have the highest priority.
It is assumed that the available capacity at Lelystad Airport in 2023 (10,000 aircraft movements)
will initially be used by traffic from the inbound and outbound peaks within abovementioned
waves. After that, leisure traffic from the 11:00 to 12:39 wave and from the 13:00 to 14:59 wave is
assumed to be distributed to Lelystad Airport. In 2023, all leisure traffic during the 11:00 to 12:39
wave can be accommodated at Lelystad Airport, while approximately 50 per cent of the traffic in
the early afternoon wave can be distributed. Leisure traffic in other periods will still be
accommodated at Schiphol Airport in 2023, assuming a capacity of 10,000 at Lelystad Airport.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

28

CHAPTER 6

Figure 6.3

Inbound traffic in 2023, divided by non-leisure traffic, distributed leisure traffic to
Lelystad Airport and leisure traffic at Schiphol Airport
35
Arrivals other

Arrivals leisure AMS

Arrivals leisure LEY

Inbound capacity

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0
06:00-06:19
06:20-06:39
06:40-06:59
07:00-07:19
07:20-07:49
07:50-07:59
08:00-08:19
08:20-08:39
08:40-08:59
09:00-09:19
09:20-09:39
09:40-09:59
10:00-10:19
10:20-10:39
10:40-10:59
11:00-11:19
11:20-11:39
11:40-11:59
12:00-12:19
12:20-12:39
12:40-12:59
13:00-13:19
13:20-13:39
13:40-13:59
14:00-14:19
14:20-14:39
14:40-14:59
15:00-15:19
15:20-15:39
15:40-15:59
16:00-16:19
16:20-16:39
16:40-16:59
17:00-17:19
17:20-17:39
17:40-17:59
18:00-18:19
18:20-18:39
18:40-18:59
19:00-19:19
19:20-19:39
19:40-19:59
20:00-20:19
20:20-20:39
20:40-20:59
21:00-21:19
21:20-21:39
21:40-21:59
22:00-22:19
22:20-22:39
22:40-22:59

Inbound capacity utilization per 20 minutes bracket in 2023

35

Source:
Note 1:
Note 2:

Note 3:

Figure 6.4

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis SEO Aviation
Economics.
Local time.
The red bars represent the scheduled non-leisure traffic; the green bars the scheduled leisure traffic
distributed to Lelystad Airport (LEY); the blue bars the scheduled leisure traffic accommodated at
Schiphol Airport (AMS).
Increased traffic at the 15th busiest day in 2017 (28th of July).

Outbound traffic in 2023, divided by non-leisure traffic, distributed leisure traffic to
Lelystad Airport and leisure traffic at Schiphol Airport
35
Outbound other
Outbound leisure LEY

Outbound leisure AMS
Outbound capacity

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

06:00-…
06:20-…
06:40-…
07:00-…
07:20-…
07:50-…
08:00-…
08:20-…
08:40-…
09:00-…
09:20-…
09:40-…
10:00-…
10:20-…
10:40-…
11:00-…
11:20-…
11:40-…
12:00-…
12:20-…
12:40-…
13:00-…
13:20-…
13:40-…
14:00-…
14:20-…
14:40-…
15:00-…
15:20-…
15:40-…
16:00-…
16:20-…
16:40-…
17:00-…
17:20-…
17:40-…
18:00-…
18:20-…
18:40-…
19:00-…
19:20-…
19:40-…
20:00-…
20:20-…
20:40-…
21:00-…
21:20-…
21:40-…
22:00-…
22:20-…
22:40-…

Outbound capacity utilization per 20 minutes bracket in 2023

35

Source:
Note 1:
Note 2:

Note 3:

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis SEO Aviation
Economics.
Local time.
The red bars represent the scheduled non-leisure traffic; the green bars the scheduled leisure traffic
distributed to Lelystad Airport (LEY); the blue bars the scheduled leisure traffic accommodated at
Schiphol Airport (AMS).
Increased traffic at the 15th busiest day in 2017 (28th of July).

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

THE EFFECTS OF LEISURE TRAFFIC DISTRIBUTION TO LELYSTAD AIRPORT

6.6

29

Concluding remarks

To a certain degree, leisure traffic takes place during the inbound and outbound peaks at Schiphol
Airport. However, differences between the different waves exist. Leisure traffic is largely absent in
the busy morning wave and to a lesser extent in the busy evening wave. On the contrary, during
the mid-day waves, leisure traffic has a higher presence. Distributing leisure traffic from Schiphol
Airport to Lelystad Airport frees up substantial capacity during several inbound and outbound peak
brackets. However, especially during aforementioned morning wave, capacity will still be
insufficient after distributing leisure traffic to Lelystad Airport. To a lesser extent, this also holds
for the evening wave, in which some spare capacity exists in adjacent peak brackets. Given the still
constrained capacity during important waves of the hub operation, it is worthwhile to have insight
in operational measures that possibly additionally free up capacity in the inbound and outbound
peaks. The next chapter sheds light on those possibilities.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

CAPACITY DEMAND AT SCHIPHOL AIRPORT IN 2023

7

31

Operational measures

This chapter sheds light on the possibilities of operational measures to free up relevant peak capacity. Four different
measures are considered in this chapter: an increase in peak hourly capacity, an increase in the number of peak
periods, an extension of specific peak periods and the accommodation of operations in adjacent peaks or periods. The
results show that a combined implementation of all operational measures substantially frees up capacity in the inbound
and outbound peaks at Schiphol Airport. However, those measures alone are not sufficient to lower demand in 2023
below the declared capacity in many peak periods. This implies that a combination of distributing traffic to Lelystad
Airport and operational measures provides the best result if it comes to freeing up capacity in the inbound and
outbound peaks of Schiphol Airport. However, even if distribution and operational measures are combined, in 2023
bottlenecks still exist with capacity demand being over 90 per cent in (some of) the peaks of waves 2, 6, 3 and 5.

7.1 Introduction
This chapter presents the benefits of potential operational measures to increase peak capacity
and/or free up capacity during the most critical peaks. Four measures, in addition to the
distribution of leisure traffic to Lelystad Airport, have been identified:
• Increase peak hourly capacity: The ability to increase the declared peak hourly capacity for the short
term is limited. It is expected that a capacity gain of 1 to 2 movements per hour might be
possible within the next years, e.g. if the work load can be reduced.
• Increase the number of peak periods. During the period 7:00 – 23:00, most periods are currently
identified as an inbound or outbound peak. Each outbound peak mode period is separated
from a preceding inbound peak mode period by a 20 minutes off peak mode (“firebreaks”).
During the period 7:00 – 23:00, only the period 21:40 – 23:00 is not used as a peak mode.
However, the current and expected traffic volume for this period is limited. An additional peak
mode during this period will not free up capacity. Therefore, this measure is not analysed in
more detail.
• Extend (specific) peak periods. Inbound peak mode period 6 currently ends at 20:00, with high
traffic volumes towards the end of the peak period. The subsequent outbound peak mode starts
at 20:00, with a relative low number of departures in the first 20 minutes interval. An extension
of the inbound peak mode towards 20:20 will free up capacity during the inbound peak. The
subsequent outbound peak will then start at 20:20 and is followed by an off peak mode until
23:00. If needed, the outbound peak can be extended.
• Accommodate slots in adjacent periods. Peak period 2 is the most busy period during the day, with a
limited share of leisure traffic. If the capacity demand cannot be met during that period,
remaining slots in adjacent periods might be used.
For these measures, an analysis is performed to identify the impact on the capacity demand during
the peak periods. The capacity demand is defined as the demand as a percentage of the capacity. If
the capacity demand is more than 100 per cent, the demand exceeds the capacity. The analysis is
based on the 15th busiest day for 2023. Besides the operational measures, the analysis also shows
the capacity demand for the situation with and without traffic distribution.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

32

CHAPTER 7

Finally, it should be stressed that that the operational and economic feasibility of the measures has
not been assessed.

7.2 Situation without additional measures
Figure 7.1 presents the traffic demand for 2023 with the number of arrivals (upper part of the
figure) and departures (lower part of the figure) per 20 minutes bracket plotted against the capacity.
The different traffic segments are indicated in the graph, including the distribution of 10,000 leisure
flights from Schiphol Airport to Lelystad Airport in the most constrained Schiphol peaks.
Figure 7.1

Traffic demand over the day in 2023 with traffic distribution to Lelystad Airport

30
25

Arrivals

20
Traffic movements

15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25

Departures

06:00
06:20
06:40
07:00
07:20
07:50
08:00
08:20
08:40
09:00
09:20
09:40
10:00
10:20
10:40
11:00
11:20
11:40
12:00
12:20
12:40
13:00
13:20
13:40
14:00
14:20
14:40
15:00
15:20
15:40
16:00
16:20
16:40
17:00
17:20
17:40
18:00
18:20
18:40
19:00
19:20
19:40
20:00
20:20
20:40
21:00
21:20
21:40
22:00
22:20
22:40

-30

LEY leisure

Source:
Note:

AMS leisure arr

AMS other arr

AMS leisure dep

AMS other dep

capacity

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis To70.
Local time.

Based on the expected traffic demand, table 7.1 shows the capacity demand for the different peak
periods. Again it appears that for periods 2, 6 and 3 the expected demand exceeds the capacity,
especially for inbound traffic.
Table 7.1

Capacity demand with all leisure traffic at Schiphol Airport

Wave

Inbound peak

Outbound peak

2

07:50 - 09:19

09:20 - 10:39

109%

100%

6

18:20 - 19:59

20:00 - 21:39

109%

95%

3

11:00 - 11:39

11:40 - 12:39

104%

95%

4

13:00 - 13:59

14:00 - 14:59

97%

98%

5

15:20 - 16:19

16:20 - 17:59

99%

79%

Source:
Note:

Arrivals

Departures

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis To70.
Local time.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

OPERATIONAL MEASURES

33

Table 7.2 illustrates the situation after the distribution of leisure traffic to Lelystad Airport, which
has the potential to free up capacity for most peak periods substantially. Due to the low number
of leisure movements in wave 2, the impact on the capacity for that period is limited. However, for
most periods, the capacity demand will be less than 90 per cent, except for the inbound peak
periods of wave 2, 6 and 5 and the outbound peak period of wave 2.
Table 7.2

Capacity demand after distribution of leisure traffic to Lelystad Airport

Wave

Inbound peak

Outbound peak

2

07:50 - 09:19

09:20 - 10:39

Arrivals
108%

Departures
99%

6

18:20 - 19:59

20:00 - 21:39

98%

89%

3

11:00 - 11:39

11:40 - 12:39

89%

83%

4

13:00 - 13:59

14:00 - 14:59

85%

88%

5

15:20 - 16:19

16:20 - 17:59

99%

79%

Source:
Note:

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis To70.
Local time.

7.3

Increase peak hourly capacity

The potential increase of the hourly peak capacity for the short term (next 5 years) is expected to
be limited. This section illustrates the impact on the capacity demand of 1 extra movement per
hour. This capacity increase frees up the capacity per peak period with approximately 1.5 per cent
(see table 7.3). A capacity increase of 2 movements would result in an approximately 3 per cent
lower capacity demand during the peak periods.
Table 7.3

Capacity demand, distributing leisure traffic to Lelystad Airport

Wave

Inbound peak

Outbound peak

2

07:50 - 09:19

09:20 - 10:39

107%

98%

6

18:20 - 19:59

20:00 - 21:39

97%

88%

3

11:00 - 11:39

11:40 - 12:39

89%

82%

4

13:00 - 13:59

14:00 - 14:59

84%

87%

5

15:20 - 16:19

16:20 - 17:59

99%

78%

Source:
Note:

Arrivals

Departures

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis To70.
Local time.

7.4 Extend peak periods
The inbound peak mode period 6 currently ends at 20:00, with high traffic volumes towards the
end of the peak period. The subsequent outbound peak mode starts at 20:00, with a relative low
number of departures in the first 20 minutes interval. An extension of the inbound peak mode
(conversion from outbound to inbound) towards 20:20 will free up capacity during the inbound
peak. The subsequent outbound peak will then start at 20:20 and is followed by an off peak mode
until 23:00. If needed, the outbound peak can be extended. The extension of both the inbound and
outbound peak is illustrated in figure 7.2. Please note that for the purpose of completeness, this
figure still includes the leisure traffic distributed to Lelystad Airport.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

34

CHAPTER 7

Figure 7.2
30
25

Extended outbound and inbound peak period in wave 6

Arrivals

20
Traffic movements

15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25

Departures

06:00
06:20
06:40
07:00
07:20
07:50
08:00
08:20
08:40
09:00
09:20
09:40
10:00
10:20
10:40
11:00
11:20
11:40
12:00
12:20
12:40
13:00
13:20
13:40
14:00
14:20
14:40
15:00
15:20
15:40
16:00
16:20
16:40
17:00
17:20
17:40
18:00
18:20
18:40
19:00
19:20
19:40
20:00
20:20
20:40
21:00
21:20
21:40
22:00
22:20
22:40

-30

LEY leisure

Source:
Note:

AMS leisure arr

AMS other arr

AMS leisure dep

AMS other dep

capacity

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis To70.
Local time.

The extension of the inbound peak frees up the peak capacity from 97 to 90 per cent (see table
7.4).
Table 7.4

Capacity demand, extending peak period 6

Wave

Inbound peak

Outbound peak

2

07:50 - 09:19

09:20 - 10:39

107%

98%

6

18:20 - 20:19

20:20 - 21:59

90%

93%

3

11:00 - 11:39

11:40 - 12:39

89%

82%

4

13:00 - 13:59

14:00 - 14:59

84%

87%

5

15:20 - 16:19

16:20 - 17:59

99%

78%

Source:
Note:

Arrivals

Departures

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis To70.
Local time.

7.5 Accommodate slots in adjacent periods
After all measures, wave 2 is still the most busy period during the day, with a limited number of
leisure flights. If the capacity demand cannot be met during that period, remaining slots in the
adjacent wave 3 and early morning period might be used. This is illustrated in figure 7.3, for the
shift of four arrivals to the early morning period and four arrivals to wave 3. Please note that the
ability to shift movements to the night time period (23:00 – 7:00) also requires night time capacity,
e.g. created by distributed leisure traffic from that period.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

OPERATIONAL MEASURES

Figure 7.3
30

35

Accommodate slots in adjacent brackets

Arrivals

25
20
4

Traffic movements

15
10

4

5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20

Departures

-25
06:00
06:20
06:40
07:00
07:20
07:50
08:00
08:20
08:40
09:00
09:20
09:40
10:00
10:20
10:40
11:00
11:20
11:40
12:00
12:20
12:40
13:00
13:20
13:40
14:00
14:20
14:40
15:00
15:20
15:40
16:00
16:20
16:40
17:00
17:20
17:40
18:00
18:20
18:40
19:00
19:20
19:40
20:00
20:20
20:40
21:00
21:20
21:40
22:00
22:20
22:40

-30

LEY leisure

Source:
Note:

AMS leisure arr

AMS other arr

AMS leisure dep

AMS other dep

capacity

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis To70.
Local time.

Table 7.5 shows the resulting capacity demand for each of the peak periods. Some periods remain
‘critical’, but in all cases the capacity does not exceed the capacity.
Table 7.5

Capacity demand, accommodating slots in adjacent periods

Wave

Inbound peak

Outbound peak

2

07:50 - 09:19

09:20 - 10:39

99%

98%

6

18:20 - 20:19

20:20 - 21:59

90%

93%

3

11:00 - 11:39

11:40 - 12:39

97%

82%

4

13:00 - 13:59

14:00 - 14:59

84%

87%

5

15:20 - 16:19

16:20 - 17:59

99%

78%

Source:
Note:

Arrivals

Departures

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis To70.
Local time.

7.6 No distribution of leisure flights to Lelystad Airport
As a concluding analysis, the impact of operational measures is assessed for the situation without
the distribution of leisure traffic to Lelystad Airport. In that situation, the demand will still exceed
the capacity for most peak periods, which clearly shows the benefits of distributing leisure traffic
to Lelystad Airport.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

36

CHAPTER 7

Table 7.6

Capacity demand without distributing leisure traffic to Lelystad Airport

Wave

Inbound peak

Outbound peak

2

07:50 - 09:19

09:20 - 10:39

100%

99%

6

18:20 - 20:19

20:20 - 21:59

100%

95%

3

11:00 - 11:39

11:40 - 12:39

112%

94%

4

13:00 - 13:59

14:00 - 14:59

95%

97%

5

15:20 - 16:19

16:20 - 17:59

99%

78%

Source:
Note:

Arrivals

Departures

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis To70.
Local time.

7.7 Concluding remarks
In addition to the distribution of leisure traffic to Lelystad Airport, operational measures potentially
result in lower capacity demands during the most critical peak periods. Table 7.7 provides a
summary of the impact of both the distribution of leisure traffic to Lelystad Airport and operational
measures on the capacity demand.
Table 7.7

Source:
Note:

Summary of the potential impact of the distribution of leisure traffic to Lelystad Airport
and/or operational measures on the capacity demand

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis To70.
Local time.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

CAPACITY DEMAND AT SCHIPHOL AIRPORT IN 2023

8

37

Conclusions

The hub operation at Schiphol Airport is an important cornerstone in the quality of Schiphol Airport’s aviation
network. The cessation of the hub operation leads to a decrease in value added of more than 4 billion euro and
55,000 jobs on the short-term. The Dutch government considers the network development of Schiphol Airport and
the hub operation’s dependence on connecting traffic of public interest. In that light, the Ministry of Infrastructure
and Water Management has asked SEO Amsterdam Economics and To70 to map the effects a distributing leisure
traffic to Lelystad Airport on capacity demand in the inbound and outbound peaks at Schiphol Airport. In addition
the Ministry has asked for an outline of operational measures that can additionally free up capacity in the inbound
and outbound peaks. The results show that only a combination of a traffic distribution rule and operational measures
decrease capacity demand below the declared capacity in 2023. Also then, bottlenecks will exist with certain peak
periods having a capacity demand of more than 90 per cent in 2023 after distributing leisure traffic to Lelystad
Airport and implementing operational measures.
Background
On the short-term, the loss of the hub operation at Schiphol Airport results in a decrease in value
added of more than 4 billion euro and the loss of 55,000 jobs. Without connecting passengers most
intercontinental destinations currently served from Schiphol Airport cannot be operated viably.
The same holds for an important part of the European network. To be able to operate a premium
hub network of high-quality connections sufficient peak hourly capacity is essential. In that light,
the Dutch government foresees in the implementation of a traffic distribution rule that aims at the
distribution of leisure traffic from the inbound and outbound peaks at Schiphol Airport to Lelystad
Airport in order to free up capacity for the hub operation at Schiphol Airport. In addition, SEO
and To70 have been asked to map the possible capacity benefits of operational measures in the
inbound and outbound peaks.
Current capacity demand
The analysis of the current capacity demand of the inbound and outbound peaks at Schiphol
Airport especially shows scarcity in the morning peak between 07:50 and 10:39 and the evening
peak between 18:20 and 21:39. In the mid-day peak periods show some room for further growth.
These findings raise the question to what extent the capacity scarcity will be increased in 2023 and,
in turn, to what extent distribution of leisure traffic to Lelystad Airport and operational measures
lead to freeing up inbound and outbound peak capacity.
2023 capacity demand
Especially the inbound peak capacity is insufficient to accommodate aviation demand in 2023.
However, also the outbound peak capacity is lower than the demand in many individual peak
brackets. In general, the results show scarcity during the morning peak between 07:50and 10:39
(wave 2) and during the evening peak between 18:20 and 21:39 (wave 6). During the mid-day peak
periods there is some room in the shoulders of the respective peak periods. The profound capacity
scarcity in 2023 underlines the relevance to investigate the possibilities to free up capacity by (1)
implementing a traffic distribution rule and by (2) operational measures.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

38

CHAPTER 8

Freeing up peak capacity by distributing leisure traffic to Lelystad Airport
The analysis of the effects of distributing leisure traffic to Lelystad Airport by means of a traffic
distribution rule especially shows the freeing up of capacity during the mid-day connecting waves
(3, 4 and 5). During these periods the leisure presence is highest. In the busy morning peak (wave
2), however, the leisure segment is largely absent. In the evening peak (wave 6) the number of
leisure aircraft movements is limited as well. Therefore, the possibility to free up capacity during
these periods using the foreseen traffic distribution rule is rather limited. Given the still constrained
capacity during the most congested waves of the hub operation, it is worthwhile to have insight in
operational measures to additionally free up capacity in the inbound and outbound peak.
Freeing up additional peak capacity by operational measures
The analysis of the effects of operational measures is based on four different measures, namely: an
increase in peak hourly capacity, an increase in the number of peak periods, an extension of specific
peak periods and the accommodation of operations in adjacent peaks or periods. The results show
that a combined implementation of all operational measures substantially frees up capacity in the
inbound and outbound peaks at Schiphol Airport (see table 8.1). However, those measures alone
are not sufficient to lower demand in 2023 (well) below the declared capacity in many peak periods.
This implies that a combination of distributing traffic to Lelystad Airport and operational measures
provides the best result if it comes to freeing up capacity in the inbound and outbound peaks of
Schiphol Airport. However, even if distribution and operational measures are combined, in 2023
bottlenecks still exist with capacity demand being over 90 per cent in (some of) the peaks of waves
2, 6, 3 and 5.
Table 8.1

Source:
Note:

Summary of the potential impact of the distribution of leisure traffic to Lelystad Airport
and/or operational measures on the capacity demand

Schiphol statistics and Capacity declaration Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, analysis To70.
Local time.

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

CAPACITY DEMAND AT SCHIPHOL AIRPORT IN 2023

39

Leisure destinations
Country
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Cyprus
Egypt
Egypt
Finland
Finland
Finland
Finland
France
France
France
France
France
Greece
Greece
Greece
Greece
Greece
Greece
Greece
Greece
Greece
Greece
Greece
Greece
Greece
Greece
Greece
Greece
Greece
Greece
Greece
Greece
Greece
Italy
Italy
Italy
Italy
Italy
Italy
Italy
Italy
Italy
Croatia
Croatia
Croatia
Macedonia
Morocco
Morocco
Morocco
Morocco
Morocco
Morocco
Morocco
Montenegro
The Netherlands
The Netherlands
The Netherlands
Austria
Austria
Austria
Poland
Portugal
Portugal
Portugal
Portugal
Portugal

Destination (IATA code)
BOJ
PDV
LCA
PFO
HRG
RMF
IVL
KTT
KAO
RVN
AJA
EGC
CMF
GNB
LDE
CHQ
JKH
HER
KLX
AOK
KVA
EFL
CFU
KIT
KGS
LXS
JMK
MJT
PVK
RHO
SMI
JTR
JSI
SKG
VOL
ZTH
BRI
CTA
MXP
NAP
OLB
PMO
PSA
RMI
VRN
DBV
PUY
SPU
OHD
AGA
AHU
CMN
RAK
NDR
OUD
TNG
TIV
EIN
GRQ
RTM
INN
LNZ
SZG
KTW
FAO
FNC
PDL
OPO
PIX

Destination
Burgas
Plovdiv
Larnaca
Paphos
Hurghada
Marsa Alam
Ivalo
Kittila
Kuusamo
Rovaniemi
Ajaccio
Bergerac
Chambery
Grenoble
Lourdes
Chania
Chios
Heraklion
Kalamata
Karpathos
Kavala
Kefalonia
Kerkyra
Kithira
Kos
Limnos
Mykonos
Mytilini
Preveza/Lefkada
Rhodos
Samos
Santorini
Skiathos
Thessaloniki
Volos
Zakynthos
Bari
Catania
Milaan Malpensa
Napels
Olbia
Palermo
Pisa
Rimini
Verona
Dubrovnik
Pula
Split
Ohrid
Agadir
Al Hoceima
Casablanca
Marrakech
Nador
Oujda
Tanger
Tivat
Eindhoven
Groningen
Rotterdam
Innsbruck
Linz
Salzburg
Katowice
Faro
Funchal
Ponta Delgada
Porto
Porto Santo

Aircraft movements 2016
302
13
233
197
380
260
29
54
38
25
160
272
33
27
23
223
24
1586
25
140
18
181
520
50
808
25
48
150
309
752
170
97
49
531
27
639
366
623
3204
1392
340
143
699
15
372
336
60
194
249
136
130
1152
545
799
44
615
47
142
29
127
490
10
336
17
2075
506
64
1529
21

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS

40

Portugal
Spain
Spain
Spain
Spain
Spain
Spain
Spain
Spain
Spain
Spain
Spain
Spain
Spain
Spain
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
United Kongdom

CHAPTER 8

TER
LEI
FUE
GRO
LPA
IBZ
ACE
AGP
MAH
PMI
REU
SPC
SCQ
SVQ
TFS
AYT
BJV
DLM
GZP
SAW
ADB
ASR
KYA
BFS

Terceira
Almeria
Fuerteventura
Girona
Gran Canaria
Ibiza
Lanzarote
Malaga
Menorca
Palma de Mallorca
Reus
Santa Cruz de la Palma
Santiago de Compostela
Sevilla
Tenerife Sur
Antalya
Bodrum
Dalaman
Gazipasa
Istanbul Sabiha Gokcen
Izmir
Kayseri
Konya
Belfast

23
99
625
544
2081
1888
848
3239
194
1887
26
305
163
852
1569
2715
781
502
382
2813
767
226
139
880

SEO AMSTERDAM ECONOMICS