L-Gas Market
Conversion Review

Summer Report 2020
Task Force Monitoring L-Gas Market
Conversion

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020

Foreword
This is the second edition of the report monitoring the conversion of the low calorific gas (L-gas) markets in
Belgium, France, Germany, and the Netherlands in order to reduce demand for Groningen gas. This report looks
back on the market developments through the previous heating season (2019/2020) and looks forward to the
coming gas years with regard to the observed and expected demand for Dutch L-gas and conversion progress of
gas installations. A special focus is provided on the impact of the coronavirus (Covid-19) induced lockdowns
measures on the conversion programmes in the respective markets.
The report is compiled by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the European Network of Transmission System
Operators for Gas (ENTSOG), Gasunie Transport Services (GTS), and the Netherlands Ministry of Economic Affairs
and Climate Policy (Min. EZK), under the umbrella of the Task Force Monitoring L-gas Market Conversion,
consisting of government representatives, representatives of transmission system operators (TSO’s) and energy
market regulators from Belgium, France, Germany, and the Netherlands, and an observer from the European
Commission. The activities of the Task Force are supported by the Benelux Secretariat. The report is published
semi-annually. The Netherlands will use these reports to inform the Dutch Parliament on the progress of reducing
the demand for Groningen gas.

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L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020

Executive summary
The government of the Netherlands announced in March 2018 its decision to terminate natural gas production
from the Groningen field as soon as possible but not later than 2030, in order to guarantee safety in the area of
Groningen against the risk of earthquakes resulting from natural gas extraction.
The initial schedule for production phase-out - which aimed for termination in 2030 at the latest - was revised in
2019 following the adjusted advice of the State Supervision of the Mines after an earthquake occurred on May
22, with the objective of accelerating the termination by Gas Year1 (GY) 2022/23 for average weather conditions.
From mid-2022, gas from the Groningen field (Groningen gas) should only be needed in case of a colder than
average winter and in case of a severe disruption elsewhere in the L-gas system.
Groningen gas has a notably lower calorific value compared to the average European gas, which means that it
cannot simply be replaced by other domestic or imported sources. These need to be converted to L-gas referred
in the current report as “pseudo L-gas”.
Pseudo L-gas can be principally produced in two ways:
•
•

nitrogen blending: nitrogen is added to high calorific gas (H-gas) in order to bring down the Wobbevalue until it meets the upper Wobbe-limits of the L-gas specifications;
enrichment: adding H-gas to Groningen gas until the upper Wobbe-limit of the L-gas specifications.

Whilst Groningen gas production has halved from 341.8 TWh (or 35 bcm) in GY 2014/15 to 170.9 TWh (or 17.5
bcm2) in GY 2018/19, the production of pseudo L-gas more than doubled during the same period of time. This
trend continued through the 2019/20 heating season3, with Groningen gas production decreasing by 44% (or
42.9 TWh) year-on-year. As a consequence, the utilization rate of the conversion facilities has increased steadily
from GY 2014/15 to an average of 91% through the GY 2018/19 and averaged over 100% of firm capacity
through the 2019/20 heating season, indicating the use of interruptible capacity
Pseudo L-gas will play an increasingly important role in reducing Groningen gas production, with its share
expected to increase from 65% in GY 2019/19 to over 99.5% of L-gas produced in the Netherlands in GY 2022/23.
Moreover, it is set to provide almost 95% of the upward production flexibility by GY 2022/23 necessary to meet
demand in a cold GY. Nitrogen blending alone will account for over 87% of L-gas produced in the Netherlands in
GY 2022/23 and expected to provide almost 85% of the upward production flexibility necessary to meet demand
in a cold GY.
L-gas is consumed in the Netherlands and is exported to neighboring markets in Belgium, France and Germany,
where it serves dedicated networks for L-gas consumers – who will be converted to other sources of energy, most
notably H-gas as a result of the Groningen phase out.
The gas infrastructure operators of Belgium, France and Germany have made arrangements to undertake
extensive conversion programs, mainly switching L-gas consumers to H-gas, this to reduce the L-gas supply from
the Netherlands: by GY 2029/30, imports of L-gas will be reduced to nearly zero.
The current report aims to monitor the progress in L-gas conversion in Belgium, France and Germany and the
activities in the Netherlands to reduce the consumption of L-gas, as well as the overall security of supply
developments within the L-gas market region. It provides the analysis needed by the Min. EZK to decide on the
allowed Groningen production and to meet the requirements of the resolution of the Dutch Parliament to be
informed twice a year about the progress in reducing the demand for Groningen gas.
Consumption of L-gas from the Netherlands decreased by over 3% (or 9.6 TWh) year-on-year through the
2019/20 heating season in the L-gas region. L-gas consumption declined despite a higher number of degree
days and was primarily due to the effect of the market conversion programs in the respective L-gas markets in
GY 2018/19, which naturally reduced demand for L-gas during the consequent heating season.
In the ten consecutive years, between GY 2019/20 and GY 2029/30, combined L-gas exports from the Netherlands
to Belgium, France and Germany are expected to be reduced at an average rate of approximately 10% per year.4

1

A gas year (GY) starts on 1 October and ends on 30 September.
Volumetric data is expressed in Normal cubic meters (Nm 3), under reference conditions of temperature (0 °C) and pressure
(101.325 kPa).
3
The heating season (or gas winter) starts on 1 October and ends on 31 March.
4
GTS (2017), Netwerk Ontwikkelingsplan 2017.
2

2

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
Consequently, L-gas imports are expected to fall from 49.1 TWh in GY 2019/20 to 0 in Belgium, from 42.7 TWh
to 0 in France and from 166.7 TWh to 0.3 TWh in Germany by GY 2029/30.
To make the transition successful, the following criteria should be met:
•
•
•

the reduced L-gas demand should be met with adequate L-gas supply, including transport capacity;
H-gas deliverability should be guaranteed as it is used as feedstock to produce pseudo L-gas;
the continuation of the Dutch TTF market structure (e.g. commercially one gas quality).

The Covid-19 induced lockdowns had only a minor impact on the overall schedule of the conversion programs,
with conversion activities being stopped in March and April. In Germany, all conversion activities resumed in May
and it is estimated that 99% of the planned 2020 conversions are to be completed in 2020. In France, the
conversion of customers appliances resumed mid-May and the conversion of the Dunkerque sector is still
scheduled for October 2020. In Belgium, the start of the works related to the adaptation of pressure regulators
in households was postponed from 1st June to 1st of September, whilst the conversion target remains unchanged.
The analysis of the conversion programs, provided in Chapter 3 of the Report, shows an alignment with the
expected L-gas demand in each market and for each gas year.
To meet this declining L-gas demand (against a more quickly decreasing Groningen output), the Netherlands will
increase the production of pseudo L-gas, primarily by means of additional nitrogen blending.
Additional purchase of nitrogen allowed to expand the nitrogen blending capacity by 80,000 m3/h N2 at the
Wieringermeer conversion facility from 215,000 to 295,000 m3/h starting from 23 December 2019. This
translated into an additional 48.9 TWh of pseudo L-gas production capability. Moreover, a new nitrogen plant at
Zuidbroek, planned to start operations from 1st of April 2022 with a capacity of 180,000 m3/h N2, will be able to
produce over 68 TWh of additional pseudo L-gas. The outbreak of covid-19 and consequent lockdowns did not
have an impact on the construction schedule of the nitrogen plant as of September 2020.
Uncertainty around the evolution of the Covid-19 and its implications for the conversion planning and construction
of the Zuidbroek facility remains a key risk factor.
The increase of H-gas conversion capacity via nitrogen blending in the Netherlands, the allowed Groningen
production and the market conversion from L-gas to H-gas in Germany, Belgium, France as well as in the
Netherlands will ensure the security of L-gas supply to consumers in all markets both in an average and in cold
year.
However, it may be necessary to maintain flexible Groningen production until the GY 2024/25, to meet L-gas
demand in the case of extreme cold days. This is currently being investigated. In the consecutive five GYs L-gas
supply flexibility will be entirely provided by L-gas enrichment and by the nitrogen blending facilities.
L-gas supply-demand balance projection in an average and cold year (GY 20/21-GY 29/30)

600
500

TWh

400
300
200
100
0
20/21

21/22

Groningen base
nitrogen flex

22/23

23/24

24/25

enrichment
Groningen flex

25/26

26/27

27/28

nitrogen blending
Demand (average)

28/29

29/30

enrichment flex
Demand (cold)

As a consequence of a declining domestic production and the subsequently growing need for H-gas to feed the
nitrogen facilities to deliver it as pseudo L-gas to L-gas consumers, the Netherlands almost doubled their H-gas

3

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
imports since 2014, from 259 TWh to 494.1 TWh in 2019. In fact, the Netherlands became a net importer of
natural gas in 2018 for the first time in the country’s history.
The Netherlands’ position as a net importer of natural gas is particularly visible during the heating season. Net
imports of natural gas rose by more than four-fold in the 2019/2020 heating season compared with the same
period of the previous GY.
Consequently, the security of L-gas supply is becoming intimately linked to the deliverability of H-gas into the
Netherlands.
Based on TYNDP2020 dataset, ENTSOG performed several additional disruption case calculations to investigate if
sufficient H-gas supply can be delivered to the Northwest European markets in an average winter. Based on the
assumptions of the TYNDP2020 the results show that there will be sufficient transport capacity during disruptions
in an average year. Compared to TYNDP2018 (disruptions) calculations the configuration at European level has
improved thanks to increased potential from suppliers (specifically extra LNG volume delivered to existing LNG
terminals), new import routes in Europe (see TYNDP2020), and the reduced gas demand in France and the UK.
The planned increase of capacity on the German/Dutch border raises the flexibility towards the Netherlands. In
2021 ENTSOG will perform security of supply calculations in order to investigate the transport of gas in a cold
winter.5
The L-Gas Market Conversion Monitoring Task Force will continue to monitor and assess the deliverability of Hgas supply to the Netherlands and the Northwest European markets served by L-gas.

5

For more details please contact Jacques REBEROL, Modelling Subject Manager, System Developpment at ENTSOG:
Jacques.Reberol@entsog.eu

4

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020

Key findings
1. Based on the received data of the expected consumers demand for Dutch L-gas in Germany,
France and Belgium, and on the achieved results with regards to the market conversion in the
three countries, GTS can make a detailed assessment of the necessary volumes of L-gas for
the coming year and the years after that. As a result, a more precise assessment can be made
of the necessary production from the Groningen field.
2. Despite a slightly higher number of heating degree days, consumption of L-gas from the
Netherlands decreased by over 3% year-on-year through the 2019/20 heating season in the
Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands. This was primarily due to the effect of the
market conversion programs in the respective L-gas markets in GY 2018/19, which naturally
reduced demand for L-gas during the consequent heating season. The analysis of the
conversion programs, provided in this Report, shows an alignment with the expected L-gas
demand in each market and for each Gas Year.
3. Groningen gas production fell by 44% year-on-year during the 2019/20 gas winter. This has
been possible due to higher L-gas production via nitrogen blending, which increased by over
18% and drove up the utilization rate of nitrogen blending facilities from an average of 95%
through the 2018/19 heating season to an average of above 100% of their firm capacity during
the 2019/20 gas winter. Higher pseudo L-gas production was also possible with the expansion
of the nitrogen blending capacity at the Wieringermeer conversion facility, starting from 23rd
December 2019. L-gas storage played a key role in allowing lower Groningen production, with
net withdrawals increasing by 32% year-on-year and meeting approximately one-fifth of the
region’s L-gas demand.
4. The Covid-19 induced lockdowns had only a minor impact on the overall schedule of the
conversion programs, with conversion activities being stopped in March and April. In Germany,
all conversion activities resumed in May and it is estimated that 99% of the planned 2020
conversions are to be completed in 2020. In France, the conversion of customers appliances
resumed mid-May and the conversion of the Dunkerque sector is still scheduled for October
2020. In Belgium, the works related to the adaptation of pressure regulators in households
started on 1st of September instead of 1st of June, whilst the conversion target volume remains
unchanged. Uncertainty around the evolution of the Covid-19 and its implications for the
conversion planning and construction of the Zuidbroek facility remains a key risk factor.
5. Belgium’s conversion plan has been slightly revised, with the identification of an opportunity
to optimize the conversion of the Brussels Region Distribution Network and complete it by
2022. In the previous conversion planning, the Brussels Region was converted in four years
(2020 till 2023).

6. In the current market conditions, the Task Force does not foresee any possibilities to further

accelerate the conversion process. Currently, all efforts are aiming at achieving the agreed
demand reduction for the coming years. In the ten consecutive years, between GY 2019/20
and GY 2029/30, combined L-gas exports from the Netherlands to Belgium, France and
Germany are expected to be gradually reduced to 0 at an average rate of approximately 10%
per year.

7. Together with the increase in nitrogen capacity, the allowed Groningen production and the
structural decrease in L-gas demand in the region, it will be possible to meet the decreasing
L-gas demand, when the precondition of sufficient H-gas is supplied towards the Netherlands
is met.
8. Due to the continuously increasing demand for H-gas for the conversion capacity, the
Netherlands has become a net importer of gas in 2018. Because of these developments, the
security of supply of L-gas has increasingly become more dependent on the flow of the
increasing H-gas volumes into the Netherlands. Based on TYNDP2020 dataset, ENTSOG
performed several additional disruption case calculations to investigate if sufficient H-gas
supply can be delivered to the Northwest European markets in an average winter. The results
show that there is sufficient transport capacity during disruptions in an average year. In 2021
ENTSOG will perform security of supply calculations in order to investigate the transport of gas
in a cold winter.

5

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020

Contents
Foreword ................................................................................................................................................. 1
Executive summary ................................................................................................................................. 2
Key findings ......................................................................................................................................... 4
1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 7
2. L-Gas demand ...................................................................................................................................... 8
3. L-gas market conversion volume....................................................................................................... 10
3.1 Germany ...................................................................................................................................... 10
3.2 France .......................................................................................................................................... 13
3.3 Belgium ........................................................................................................................................ 15
3.4 The Netherlands .......................................................................................................................... 17
4. L-gas production ................................................................................................................................ 17
5. Storage of L-gas ................................................................................................................................. 22
6. H-gas imports into the Netherlands .................................................................................................. 24
7. Conclusion & implications for Groningen production until 2029/30 ................................................ 26
Annex ..................................................................................................................................................... 27
Contributors .......................................................................................................................................... 34

6

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020

1. Introduction
The government of the Netherlands announced in March 2018 its decision to terminate natural gas production
from the Groningen field as soon as possible, in order to guarantee safety in the area of Groningen against the
risk of earthquakes resulting from natural gas extraction.
The initial schedule for production phase-out - which aimed for termination in 2030 at the latest - was revised in
2019 following the adjusted advice of the State Supervision of the Mines after an earthquake occurred on May
22, with the objective of accelerating the termination by Gas Year (GY) 2022/23 for average weather conditions.
From mid-2022, Groningen gas should only be needed in case of a colder than average winter and in case of a
severe disruption elsewhere in the L-gas system. Groningen gas has a notably lower calorific value compared to
the average European gas, which means it cannot simply be replaced by other domestic or imported sources.
These need to be converted, principally via nitrogen blending, to L-gas.
L-gas is consumed in the Netherlands and exported to neighboring markets in Belgium, France and Germany,
where it serves dedicated networks for L-gas consumers – who will be converted to other sources of energy, most
notably H-gas as a result of the Groningen phase-out. In fact, whilst over 90% of L-gas in Northwest Europe is
produced in the Netherlands, almost half of it is currently consumed in the three importing markets.
Hence, the decision to terminate Groningen production has consequences in terms of adaptation for the Dutch
domestic gas market, but also for export markets in Belgium, France and Germany. The four countries have been
working together since 2012 on the phasing-out of L-gas consumption, which was initially motivated by the
natural decline of the Groningen field. Belgium, France and Germany have developed and are implementing
concrete plans to have their consumers of L-gas converted to other sources of energy, most notably H-gas, by
2030.
L-gas demand has a strong seasonal profile, with over two-third of consumption occurring through the heating
season of the Gas Year6. As such, a special focus on the supply-demand dynamics during that period is necessary
to evaluate the state of L-gas supply deliverability.
The Dutch Parliament adopted a resolution which requires the Min. EZK to report twice a year on concrete
measures to reduce the demand for Groningen gas and their foreseen impact7. In this report explicit attention
has to be given to measures within and with regard to neighboring countries. Moreover, the claimed reductions
should be substantiated with actual data and options should be investigated to accelerate the reduction of the
demand. In order to fulfil this requirement, the Netherlands proposed to establish a Task Force on Gas Market
Conversion Monitoring within the framework of the Pentalateral Gas Platform. The authorities of Belgium, France
and Germany concurred with this proposal.
The current report aims to monitor the progress in L-gas conversion in Belgium, France and Germany and the
activities in the Netherlands to reduce the consumption of L-gas, as well as the overall security of supply
developments within the low-calorific market region. It provides the analysis needed by the Min. EZK to decide
on the allowed Groningen production and to meet the requirements of the resolution of the Dutch Parliament. It
also creates a dedicated platform through the Task Force to further improve transparency and mutual
understanding among the involved countries, and enables to share options to accelerate the conversion, without
prejudice to national operators and end users. During the previous months, it has served as a platform to monitor
and discuss developments related to Covid-19 and its impact on the market conversion planning. The Netherlands
has used the information received during these meetings to inform the Parliament on 8 April and 19 June.
The report provides a special focus on the potential impact of the covid-19 induced lockdowns on the
implementation of the conversion programs in each market.

6

The heating season (or gas winter) starts on 1 October and ends on 31 March. The Gas Year starts on 1 October and ends on
30 September of a calendar year.
7
The Parliament’s resolution followed the decision made by the Dutch Council of State on July 3, 2019, which annulled the Min .
EZK’s decision on the allowed Groningen production in the Gas Year 2018/19. The Council of State concluded that it was not
sufficiently motivated why the demand for Groningen gas could not be reduced faster than foreseen. The Council of State not
only referred to Dutch demand but also to exports. According to the Council of State it was not sufficiently clear what the Ministry
meant with his statement that he is in dialogue with neighboring countries to reduce their demand and what actions he undertakes
to accelerate the reduction of exports of Groningen gas.

7

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020

2. L-Gas demand
2.1 Recent demand trends
L-gas is predominantly consumed in the residential and commercial sectors for space heating purposes.
Consequently, L-gas demand shows a significant seasonal profile, with over two-thirds of consumption occurring
through the heating season of the Gas Year (GY).
Total consumption of Dutch L-gas declined by 3% (9.6 TWh) from 334.9 TWh in the 2018/19 heating season to
325.3 TWh in 2019/20. This has been primarily driven by the start of the implementation of the market conversion
programs in the respective L-gas markets in GY 2018/19, which naturally reduced demand for L-gas during the
consequent heating season. In GY 2018/19 conversion totaled to 15.76 TWh, with 13.5 TWh taking place in
Germany, 1.37 TWh in Belgium, 0.888 TWh in France and 0 in the Netherlands.

Figure 2.1 Consumption of L-gas from the Netherlands in the 2018/19 and 2019/20 heating seasons

350
300

TWh

250
200
150
100
50
0
2018/2019
heating season
Netherlands

2019/2020
heating season
Germany

Belgium

France

It is important to highlight that market conversion volumes do not necessarily translate into the same amount of
L-gas consumption change as other demand side factors also have an influence on the overall L-gas demand.
There is particularly a strong correlation between the number of heating degree days (HDD) and L-gas
consumption, given its predominant use for space heating purposes. In the 2019/20 heating season, the number
of wind-adjusted HDD was 0.9% higher compared to the previous heating season based on the measurements
at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute in De Bilt8.
As shown in Figure 2.2 Germany accounted for over 60% of the decline in Dutch L-gas consumption through the
2019/20 heating season, followed by the Netherlands (18.8%), France (14.8%) and Belgium (4.8%). Regarding
year-on-year comparisons, Germany recorded a reduction of 5.3%, France 4.7%, Belgium 1.4% and the
Netherlands 1.1%.

8

For more detail regarding the climatological context, please refer to Annex VI of the current report.

8

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
Figure 2.2 Change in Dutch L-gas consumption in 2019/20 vs 2018/19 heating season

-3%

335

-1.8

334.8

-5.9

330

-0.46
-1.4

325

TWh

325.2
320
315
310
305
300
2018/19
heating season

Netherlands

Germany

Belgium

France

2019/20
heating season

Peak monthly consumption decreased by 16% (11.9 TWh) in the 2019/20 heating season compared to the
previous heating season and consequently the demand swing (represented by the arrows in Figure 2.3) contracted
by 20% (11.1 TWh). This has been largely driven by the climatological context and the more even distribution of
HDDs through the 2019/20 heating season.

400

70

350

60

300

50

250

TWh

80

Netherlands

Germany

Belgium

France

mrt-20

jan-20

feb-20

dec-19

nov-19

okt-19

sep-19

aug-19

jul-19

jun-19

mei-19

apr-19

mrt-19

feb-19

jan-19

dec-18

0

okt-18

0

nov-18

50

sep-18

10

aug-18

100

jul-18

20

jun-18

150

mei-18

30

apr-18

200

mrt-18

40

HDD

Figure 2.3 Dutch L-gas monthly consumption March 2018 – March 2020

HDD

2.2 The expected annual demand for L-gas from the Netherlands until GY 2029/30
In the ten consecutive years, between GY 2019/20 and GY 2029/30, combined L-gas exports from the Netherlands
to Belgium, France and Germany are expected to be gradually reduced at an average rate of approximately 10%
per year.9
As a consequence, L-gas imports are expected to fall from 45.4 TWh in GY 2018/19 to 0 in Belgium, from 41.6
TWh to 0 in France and from 163.6 TWh to 0.3 TWh in Germany by GY 2029/30 both in an average and cold GY.

9

GTS (2017), Netwerk Ontwikkelingsplan 2017.

9

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
Figure 2.4 Projected annual demand for Dutch L-gas (TWh)

L-gas demand in average GYs

L-gas demand in cold GYs
600

500

500

400

400

TWh

TWh

600

300

300

200

200

100

100

0

0

Netherlands

Germany

Belgium

France

Netherlands

Germany

Belgium

France

3. L-gas market conversion volume
The gas infrastructure operators of Belgium, France and Germany have made arrangements to undertake
extensive conversion programs, mainly switching L-gas consumers to H-gas, this to reduce the L-gas supply from
the Netherlands: by the gas GY 2029/30, their imports of L-gas will be reduced to close zero.
Both the realized number of gas installations or consumers that are converted and the corresponding volume are
important to consider. In this report, countries supply data for each.
The current report provides an update on the progress of the conversion programs, with a special focus on the
potential impact of the Covid-19 induced lockdowns.

3.1 Germany
Legislative changes, conversion costs and additional measures10
In order to implement the market conversion in Germany some 5.5 million gas appliances need a physical
adaptation. A sophisticated timetable for the conversion process was put into place in 2014 and legal changes
have been introduced. As of 2017, the Basic Energy Law (Energiewirtschaftsgesetz) had been revised substantially
in order to serve as the basis for the market conversion from L- to H-gas. § 19a of the Basic Energy Law clarifies
since that the legal responsibility for the process lies with the transmission system operators and that the
necessary costs of adaptation of gas appliances are socialized (as an integral part of the gas grid fee).
Furthermore, the law lays down rules on partial reimbursement if customers buy a new gas appliance.
In addition, the Basic Energy Law was amended concerning access to the German L-gas grid in order not to
provide substantial amounts of L-gas to new customers.
The total costs for the conversion from L- to H-gas in Germany are estimated at approx. EUR 4 billion. The
conversion costs can be split into two different cost categories (1) costs for adapting the customers’ appliances
from L- to H-gas and (2) costs for grid expansion.
The German TSO GTG Nord had built a new blending facility at the Dutch border in order to reduce the need for
Groningen gas by up to 6 TWh a year, cf. below.

10

For further details please refer to the Winter Report 2020 of the Task Force Monitoring L-Gas Market Conversion.

10

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
Conversions from 2015 to 201911
Approximately 300,000 appliances have been converted from L- to H-gas in the years 2015 – 2018. During the
years 2015 – 2018, several early conversions have been implemented. Furthermore, the German TSOs have
accelerated the planning for the consecutive years repeatedly. The conversions realized between 2015 and 2018
account for a capacity of 4.6 GWh/h and a yearly volume of 28 TWh. More than half of this volume accounted to
conversions ahead of schedule, which served to bring down demand for Groningen gas.
As these advanced changes had been made years before the due date, they continue to be a relief for the
Groningen production in the years to come.
In 2019, 10 areas with 319,000 appliances in total have been converted as planned. Conversion relates to a
capacity of 4 GWh/h and a volume of 13.5 TWh.
Conversions in 2020 and the impact of Covid-19
In 2020, 7 areas with 394,000 appliances are planned to be converted. Conversion relates to a capacity of 5.2
GWh/h and a volume of 18.1 TWh (average year). The respective conversion areas are displayed in the illustration
below.
Map 3.1 Planned market conversions in Germany in 2020

The rapid spread of Covid-19 in Germany has resulted in minor changes to the original conversion plans presented
in the Gas Network Development Plan 2020–2030 for 2020.
The Covid-19 pandemic means that all parties involved are facing challenges that were previously unknown in
some cases. In particular, these include the reduction or temporary suspension of survey and adjustment work

11

For further details please refer to the Winter Report 2020 of the Task Force Monitoring L-Gas Market Conversion.

11

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
(causes including those refusing entry), guaranteeing the full availability of conversion service providers, the
implementation of special hygiene protocols and providing the customers concerned with comprehensive
information.
As of 1 July 2020, 218.000 appliances have been converted from L- to H-gas. This corresponds to 55 % of the
overall conversion plan for the year 2020.
According to the original plans, an additional 31.000 appliances should have been converted to H-Gas by 1 July
but are delayed by 1 to 3 months due to the Covid-19 situation. The major part of the delayed appliances is still
planned to be converted within the year 2020 provided that the Covid-19 situation in Germany remains stable.
Only an amount of 6,000 appliances (0.05 GW) to be converted are rescheduled to 2021. This however will not
result in any changes in the import assumptions from the Netherlands in terms of volume or capacity due to the
limited size of the conversion area. Table 3.1 provides a detailed status of the conversion areas in Germany and
the respective delays caused by Covid-19.
Table 3.1 Market conversion in Germany in 2020
Area (number in map)

TSO

Revised target
number of
appliances
(as 1 June
2020)
38,000

Planned technical
conversion
months (in
NPD)

GTG

Target
number of
appliances
(in NPD
2020)
50,000

EWE Zone part I (1)
EWE Zone part I (1)

February-June

February-June

GTG

17,000

23,000

Sept-November

Bremen/Delmen-horst (2)

GUD

30,000

30,000

SeptemberOctober
July

Bremen/Delmen-horst (2)

GUD

23,000

23,000

September

September

East Hanover/Wolfsburg (3)

GUD

5,000

5,000

March

March

East Hanover/Wolfsburg (3)

GUD

34,000

34,000

April

May

East Hanover/Wolfsburg (3)

GUD

27,000

27,000

June

June

East Hanover/Wolfsburg (3)

GUD

8,000

8,000

September

September

East Hanover/Wolfsburg* (3)

GUD

0

0

October

October

Teutoburger Wald 5 (4)

39,000

39,000

October

October

Aggertal pipeline (5)

OGE
(Nowega)
OGE

4,000

4,000

April

August

Aggertal pipeline (5)

OGE

3,000

0

August

-

Aggertal pipeline (5)

OGE

-

3,000

-

September

Aggertal pipeline (5)

TG

0

0

April

April

Aggertal pipeline (5)

TG

5,000

5,000

April

August

Aggertal pipeline (5)

TG

10,000

15,000

June

September

Aggertal pipeline (5)

TG

9,000

20,000

August

November

Aggertal pipeline (5)

TG

16,000

0

October

-

Bonn (6)

OGE

21,000

21,000

March

March

Bonn (6)

OGE

4,000

4,000

June

July

Middle Hesse (7)

OGE

22,000

22,000

March

March

Middle Hesse (7)

OGE

20,000

20,000

April

April

Middle Hesse (7)

OGE

17, 000

17,000

June

June

Middle Hesse (7)

OGE

16,000

16,000

July

July

Middle Hesse (7)

OGE

16,000

16,000

September

September

395,000

389,000

Total

Planned technical
conversion
month (as 1
June 2020)

July

*no distribution networks

In order to monitor ongoing developments, each working day, the industry associations BDEW and DVGW are
recording figures for refused entry and illness directly from market conversion service providers.
Transmission and distribution system operators have jointly established a system to cautiously proceed with the
conversion while reassessing the circumstances and being able to adapt planning if needed. There have also been
good experiences in terms of communication specific to Covid-19. Hardly any problems due to COVID-19 have
been reported for the switchovers currently being implemented.
Despite the difficult Covid-19 situation in spring 2020, the gas demand from the Netherlands will not deviate
against the assumptions already published in the Winter Report 2020. However, the challenge ahead will be to
manage the high numbers of conversions scheduled for the next years.

12

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
Conversions until GY 2029/30
In Germany, approximately 4 million of gas appliances will need to be converted between GY 2020/21 and GY
2029/30, translating into a total volume of 178.2 TWh.
Consequently, L-gas imports from the Netherlands to Germany are expected to fall to 0.3 TWh by GY 2029/30,
both in an average and cold GY.
Figure 3.1 Germany’s L-gas imports from the Netherlands (GY 2020/21-GY 2029/30) for average
and cold GYs

200
180
160
140

TWh

120
100
80
60
40
20
0
20/21

21/22

22/23

23/24

24/25
Average

25/26

26/27

27/28

28/29

29/30

Cold

3.2 France
Legislative changes and conversion costs12
In France almost 1.3 million of gas consumers have to be converted between GY 2019/20 and GY 2029/30,
translating into a total volume of 43.4 TWh/y.
Since 2015, the French legal and regulatory framework has been adapted to carry out the conversion of the Lgas network. Costs incurred by the TSO and the DSOs for the conversion of the L-gas networks are covered
through gas infrastructures tariffs and are estimated to amount to approximately EUR 800 million.
Conversions achieved in GY 2018/19 and GY 2019/20
A pilot phase has been decided to test the conversion process. During GY 2018/19 the conversion of the L-gas
network was carried out in the Doullens area (6,000 consumers converted on April 9, 2019, rural area with a
majority of individual housing) and the Gravelines area (10,000 consumers converted on September 17, 2019,
urban area with collective housing).
During the GY 2019/20 the conversion program continued in the Grande Synthe area with 19,000 consumers
converted on November 28, 2019.
Conversions in 2020 and the impact of covid-19
The initial plan for 2020 was the conversion of Dunkerque sector in October 2020 representing 42 000 customers
and translating into an annual consumption of 1.2TWh under average weather conditions.
Operations at consumers’ houses to check and adapt gas appliances started on 2nd March 2020, with an expected
rhythm of 20% of appliances per month from April until June. 2000 of them were checked and adapted as of midMarch (16/03) when the operations have been suspended due to Covid-19 outbreak.

12

For further details please refer to the Winter Report 2020 of the Task Force Monitoring L-Gas Market Conversion.

13

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
Map 3.2 Market conversions in France in 2019 and 2020

The lockdown in France stopped the conversion activities by DSO in the sector of Dunkerque on March 16. It is
important to note that the area concerned by the conversion program in France was classified as a red area with
respect to Covid-19, which means that it was a highly contaminated area.
From March 16, conditions for resuming settings of gas appliances have been put in place by the DSO and its
implementation has been initiated with customers: a letter and a "health instructions" brochure were sent to
customers informing them of the resumption of the settings under specific conditions to guarantee their safety
and the safety of the workers. The letter invited them to contact the DSO to confirm their agreement. Local
officials and local press relayed these messages.
Settings of customers appliances resumed on 18 May starting with around 30 volunteer heating technicians. A
ramp-up took place in the following weeks and significant efforts were made to catch up with the accumulated
delay. Dunkerque sector conversion is now scheduled for October 27, 2020.
On the TSO side the network modifications for the conversion of the Dunkerque sector were achieved by the end
of 2019 and therefore the Covid-19 crisis has no consequence on that part of the program.
GRTgaz conversion activities now concern mainly the preparation of the conversions planned in 2021 and further.
In particular, there are two GRTgaz projects to be achieved in 2021. Even if there is delay with respect to the
original planning, the current commissioning dates of these two projects remain compatible with the conversions
planned in 2021.
Conversions until GY 2029/30
In France, over 1.2 million of gas consumers will need to be converted between GY 2020/21 and GY 2029/30,
translating into a total volume of 41.2 TWh/y.
Consequently, L-gas imports from the Netherlands to France are expected to fall to 0 by GY 2029/30, both in
an average and cold GY.

14

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
Figure 3.2 France’s consumers demand for L-gas from the Netherlands (GY 2020/21-GY 2029/30)
for average and cold GYs

50
45
40
35

TWh

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
20/21

21/22

22/23

23/24

24/25
Average

25/26

26/27

27/28

28/29

29/30

Cold

3.3 Belgium
Conversions up to 202013
In Belgium, the L- to H-gas conversion project continued in GY 2018/19, with the conversion of 15,000
connections on June 1, 2019, in Wallonia (municipalities of Gembloux, Hélécine, Incourt, Jodoigne, Lincent, OrpJauche, Perwez, Sombreffe). Another 20,000 connections were converted on Oct 1, 2019, in Flanders (Brasschaat,
Essen, Kalmthout, Wuustwezel). These conversions took place at junction points between the H- and the L-grids.
No particular issue is to be reported for this phase.
Conversions in 2020 and the impact of Covid-19
In 2020, some 129,761 connections are planned to be converted, translating into an annual consumption of 1.92
TWh under average weather conditions. This is partially enabled by an upgrade of the Winksele compression
station whereby H-gas from the natural gas transport backbone (West-East VTN) will start to be injected into the
L-gas grid. In total, more than 50,000 connections will be converted in the western part of the Brussels-Capital
Region (Berchem-Sainte-Agathe, Koekelberg, Molenbeek-Saint-Jean), more than 70,000 connections in Flanders
(Dilbeek, Grimbergen, Kampenhout, Lennik, Machelen, Meise, Merchtem (Hamme), Steenokkerzeel, Ternat,
Vilvoorde, Wemmel, Zemst) and 6,000 connections in Wallonia (Soignies). Due to the outbreak of the Covid-19
pandemic, the works related to the adaptation of the pressure regulator in households started on 1st of September
instead of the 1st of June as previously planned.
However, the conversion target (129,761 connections with an annual consumption of 1.92 TWh) remains
unchanged.

13

For further details please refer to the Winter Report 2020 of the Task Force Monitoring L-Gas Market Conversion.

15

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
Map 3.3 Market conversion in Belgium in 2020

Conversions until GY 2029/30
In Belgium, almost 1.5 million of gas connections have to be converted between GY 2020/21 and GY 2029/30,
translating into a total volume of 47.22 TWh.
Belgium’s conversion plan has been slightly revised, with the identification of an opportunity to optimize the
conversion of the Brussels Region Distribution Network. In the previous conversion planning, the Brussels Region
was converted in four years (2020 till 2023). The optimized conversion planning foresees a phased conversion
following the three commercial/physical zones of the Region (Aggregated Receiving Stations), whereby Brussels
is converted in three years (2020 till 2022).
The new planning requires a shift of some of the conversion activities from 2022 to 2021, and from 2023 to 2022.
It was the result of coordinated effort between the TSO Fluxys and the DSOs involved (Sibelga in Brussels, as
well as Fluvius in Flanders for the parts of its network which is supplied by the same TSO station as Sibelga).
Adaptions are required on the TSO network to facilitate this shift (notably enabling the simultaneous supply of
two types of gases – H and L – to Sibelga from one of the stations on the TSO network), and the DSOs had to
anticipate conversion activities and allocate resources accordingly.
The optimization of the conversion planning results in a small reduction of L-gas import needs between 2021 and
2023. The graph below shows the change in the planning in terms of number of connections. From 2024 to the
end, the conversion planning remains unchanged.
Optimization of the conversion planning in Belgium

16

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
As a consequence to the market conversion, Belgium’s L-gas imports from the Netherlands are expected to fall
to 0 by GY 2029/30. However, the rising numbers of connections to be converted each year makes the L- to Hgas conversion a challenging program.
In the longer term, the Belgian market conversion has to take account of the remaining L-gas volumes required
for France.
Figure 3.3 Belgium’s L-gas imports from the Netherlands (GY 2020/21-GY 2029/30) for average
and cold GYs

60
50

TWh

40
30
20
10
0
20/21

21/22

22/23

23/24

24/25
Average

25/26
Cold

26/27

27/28

28/29

29/30

3.4 The Netherlands
Contrary to other L-gas consuming countries, the Netherlands has decided not to enter into a large scale
conversion operation. Instead, a new, large nitrogen facility is being built which, together with the already existing
nitrogen facilities and some underground storage facilities, will be able to provide enough L-gas (volume and
capacity) to meet Dutch demand in the years to come. For more details, please refer to Chapter 4 of the Report.
The legislative framework has however been adapted in order to limit future L-gas consumption. The Dutch Gas
Act has already been adapted to prevent future L-gas consumption growth by prohibiting the connection of newly
built houses and buildings to the gas grid. The new legislation concerning the conversion of industrial customers
(adopted on June 20, 2020) specifies that industrial customers consuming more than 100 million cubic meters
(mcm) annually are not allowed to use L-gas after October 2022. As a consequence, Dutch demand for L-gas is
expected to decrease by at least 3 bcm (~30 TWh) by October 202214, equating to the consumption of the nine
largest users. To compensate for a part of the conversion costs of the relevant industrial customers, the Dutch
government will establish a compensation scheme.
In addition, steps are being taken to phase-out natural gas from the Dutch energy system between now and
2050. This follows the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the Dutch Climate Agreement.

4. L-gas production
4.1 L-gas production in the Netherlands: recent trends
Following an increasing number of earthquakes in the province of Groningen, linked to the natural gas extraction
in the area, the Dutch authorities have imposed successive caps on Groningen’s gas production starting from
2014. Consequently, Groningen gas production has halved from 341.8 TWh (or 35 bcm) in GY 2014/15 to 170.9

14

In the current planning there are four sites where the conversion is expected to be delayed by several months. This should
have a limited impact on the gas production from the Groningen gas field as long as other measures remain on schedule.

17

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
TWh (or 17.5 bcm) in GY 2018/19. This trend continued through the 2019/20 heating season, with Groningen
gas production falling by 44% (or 42.9 TWh) year-on-year, from 96.5 TWh to 53.6 TWh.
Groningen gas has a notably lower calorific value compared to the average European natural gas fields, which
means that it cannot simply be replaced by other (imported) natural gas sources. These need to be converted to
L-gas referred in the current report as “pseudo L-gas”. Pseudo L-gas can be produced either via nitrogen blending
or via enrichment.15
In line with the declining natural L-gas production from the Netherlands, the production of pseudo L-gas more
than doubled between GY 2014/15 and GY 18/19.
During the 2019/20 heating season, total pseudo L-gas production increased by 10.8% (or 19.9 TWh) year-onyear, from 184.5 TWh in 2018/19 to 204.4 TWh. Consequently, the share of pseudo L-gas in total Dutch L-gas
production grew from 66% to 79% in the last two heating seasons.
It is important to highlight that this has been entirely driven by a higher L-gas production via nitrogen blending
increasing by 18.3% (or 22.4 TWh) while pseudo L-gas obtained via enrichment decreased by 4% (or 2.5 TWh)
following lower gas extraction from the Groningen field. As a consequence, the utilization rate of nitrogen blending
facilities has increased from an average of 95% through the 2018/19 heating season to an average of above
100% of firm capacity during the 2019/20 heating season, indicating the use of interruptible capacity.
Higher pseudo L-gas production has been made possible with the expansion of the nitrogen blending capacity by
80,000 m3/h N2 at the Wieringermeer conversion facility, starting operations on 23rd December 2019, slightly
before the planned start date. This has translated into an additional 48.9 TWh/year of pseudo L-gas production
capability.
Total nitrogen usage for pseudo L-gas production increased by 18.2% year-on-year, from 1.46 bcm during the
2018/19 heating season to 1.72 bcm in 2019/20.
Figure 4.1 L-gas supply in the Netherlands in 2018/19 and 2019/20 heating seasons

-8%

300

90%
80%

250

70%

TWh

200

60%
50%

150

40%

100

30%
20%

50

10%

0

0%
2018/2019
heating season
Groningen

Enrichment

2019/20
heating season
Nitrogen blending

share of pseudo L-gas

Altogether, L-gas production in the Netherlands has fallen by 8.2% (or 23 TWh) year-on-year, from 281 TWh
during the 2018/19 heating season to 258 TWh in 2019/20. As such, the decline in L-gas production has been
greater than the year-on-year reduction in L-gas consumption (-9.6 TWh) with the difference being compensated
by higher withdrawal from L-gas storage sites (see Chapter 5).

4.2 The impact of decreasing Groningen production on the Dutch gas market
It is important to highlight that reduced gas production in the Netherlands did not appear to have any impact on
the level of wholesale gas prices nor on the traded volumes on Dutch gas hub, the Title Transfer Facility (TTF).

15

In the process of nitrogen blending nitrogen is added to H-gas in order to bring down the Wobbe-value until it meets the upper
Wobbe-limits of the L-gas specifications. Enrichment refers to the process adding H-gas to Groningen-gas until the upper Wobbelimit of the L-gas specifications.

18

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
In fact, gas prices on the TTF are reflective of broader regional and global supply-demand dynamics and as such
depend less on the levels of natural gas production in the Netherlands.
Natural gas prices on TTF averaged at €11.2/MWh through the 2019/20 heating season, their lowest price level
for this part of the Gas Year since TTF has been launched in 2003. This has been partly driven by the particularly
mild winter weather conditions both in Asia and Europe, the substantial increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG)
production capacity (mainly in the United States) and the slowdown of natural gas demand growth in Asia
following the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak and consequent lockdowns.
Under these market conditions, Europe –with its ample regasification and storage capacity- played a key role in
absorbing surplus LNG from the global gas market, with overall LNG imports into Europe16 rising by almost onethird(or 189 TWh) year-on-year during the 2019/20 heating season. This in turn provided downward pressure to
natural gas prices across European gas hub, including TTF.
Figure 4.2 TTF gas prices and traded volumes per heating seasons (2011/12-2019/20)

30

25000

25

20000

15000

TWh

€/MWh

20
15
10000
10
5000

5
0

0
2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

Traded volumes

Price

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

During the same period of time, traded volumes on TTF expanded by an impressive 32% year-on-year to over
23,000 TWh, reinforcing TTF’s position as Europe’s leading gas hub. Importantly, the liquidity of the hub improved
as well, as certified by the improving churn ratio17, increasing from 49 in 2018/19 heating season to 75 in
2019/20.
4.3 Indication of the L-gas production in the Netherlands for the period GY 2019/20 – GY 2029/30
The Groningen production cap for the GY 2019/20 has been set at 11.8 bcm (or 114 TWh) for an average GY and
17 bcm (167 TWh) in a cold year. The initial target has been revised down in March 2020 by the Ministry of
Economic Affairs and Climate, to 104.5 TWh for an average GY and to 156 TWh for a cold GY. This was possible
due to the high nitrogen utilization between October and December and the expansion of the working gas volume
of UGS Norg.
Gas production from Groningen is expected to decline further in the coming years to reach 0 by mid-2022 for an
average GY.

16

The European Union, Turkey and the United Kingdom.
The churn is the ratio between the traded volumes on a hub and the physical deliveries of the hub. A higher churn ratio suggests
a more liquid and developed hub.
17

19

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
Figure 4.3 Indication of the L-gas production from Groningen in an average and cold gas year (GY
2019/20-2029/30)

180
160
140

TWh

120
100
80
60
40
20
0
19/20

20/21

21/22

22/23

23/24 24/25 25/26
Average year
Cold

26/27

27/28

28/29

29/30

It is currently being investigated what this means for the date by which the gas production from Groningen can
come to a full stop. In this investigation two factors play a role: volume and capacity/flexibility. For the analysis
of this report a scenario elaborated by GTS has been used with an eventual minimal flexible production until the
GY 2024/25, to meet L-gas demand in the case of eventual extreme cold GYs and in case of a severe disruption
elsewhere in the L-gas system. The capacity factor will be discussed in the February 2021 report.
To substitute the declining production from the Groningen field, the production of pseudo L-gas will further
increase, primarily by means of nitrogen blending with (imported) H-gas. In the GY 2022/23, pseudo L-gas will
account for over 99.5% (or 374 TWh) of L-gas produced in the Netherlands and is set to provide almost 95% of
the upward production flexibility necessary to meet demand in a cold GY. Nitrogen blending alone will account
for over 87% (or 329 TWh) of L-gas produced in the Netherlands and expected to provide almost 85% of the
upward production flexibility necessary to meet demand in a cold GY.
This will be supported by the new nitrogen plant at Zuidbroek, which is currently under construction and is planned
to start operations from 1st of April 2022 with a capacity of 180,000 m3/h N2 and able to produce over 68 TWh
of additional pseudo L-gas. The outbreak of covid-19 and consequent lockdowns did not have an impact on the
construction schedule of the nitrogen plant as of September 2020.
Figure 4.4 Indication of pseudo L-gas production during an average and cold gas year in the
Netherlands (GY 2019/20-2029/30)

450
400
350

TWh

300
250
200
150
100
50
0
19/20

20/21
21/22
22/23
23/24
24/25
25/26
nitrogen blending
enrichment
nitrogen flex

26/27
27/28
28/29
enrichment flex

29/30

Pseudo L-gas production in the Netherlands is expected to reach its peak in the GY 2021/22, following which is
set to decrease in line with the reduction in L-gas demand primarily from the importing markets (Belgium, France
and Germany).

20

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
4.4 Indication of the L-gas production outside Netherlands for the period GY 2019/20 – GY 2029/30
In Germany, L-gas production decreased by 17.3% (or 4.6 TWh) from 26.5 TWh in 2018/19 to 21.9 TWh during
the 2019/20 heating season. This has been driven by lower total L-gas consumption (mainly as a result of the
conversions already undertaken) which did not result in an increase of L-gas imports from the Netherlands (see
Chapter 1).
Figure 4.5 L-gas production in Germany in 2018/19 and 2019/20 heating seasons

30

-17%

25

TWh

20
15
10
5
0
2018/19
heating season

2019/20
heating season

In Germany, L-gas production is expected to decrease at an annual average rate of ~9% from 48.7 TWh in GY
2018/19 to 15.3 TWh by GY 2029/30. There is one peak nitrogen/H-gas blending facility in Germany, in Rehden,
supplying only limited volumes of converted L-gas.
In addition, the German TSO GTG Nord built a blending facility at the Dutch border. This facility allows for blending
Dutch Groningen gas with H-gas. GTS has finished their construction of the H-gas connection, however, GTG is
not yet connected to H-gas. GTG is still waiting for the necessary material as specified by the Dutch expert, which,
according to other Dutch partners, is required to have an unusual specification. As a consequence, commissioning
in Q3 may be further delayed. Once in operation, the blending facility allows an annual decrease of L-gas deliveries
from the Netherlands of up to 30% (5-6 TWh/y approx.) of the demand of GTG’s cross border point Oude
Statenzijl. Thus, the facility is a further relief to the Groningen production. The building costs of the facility and
its operational costs are borne by network users.
There is no L-gas production in Belgium or France.
There is one nitrogen/H-gas blending facility in France. It is located at Loon Plage (near Dunkerque) and it was
designed for peak-load needs only. In 2021 this part of GRTgaz network will be converted to H-gas and this
facility will be abandoned. There is one peak nitrogen/H-gas blending facility in Belgium, in Lillo, supplying only
limited volumes of converted L-gas.
Figure 4.6 Indication of the L-gas production in Germany (GY 2019/20-2029/30)

40
35
30

TWh

25
20
15
10
5
0
19/20

20/21

21/22

22/23

23/24

24/25

25/26

26/27

27/28

28/29

29/30

21

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020

5. Storage of L-gas
Natural gas storage plays a key role in meeting both seasonal and more short-term demand requirements,
providing additional flexibility to the gas system.
Given the high seasonal profile of L-gas demand (see Chapter 2), storage capacity is required to ensure the
adequate deliverability of L-gas supply.
It is important to note that in the past the Groningen field had a significant seasonal swing –the difference in
output during the heating and summer season- providing supply flexibility to the entire system. As shown on the
figure below, the production swing of Groningen has practically disappeared by 2015/16.
This in turn, is increasing the importance of L-gas storage in meeting both seasonal and short-demand variations.
Figure 5.1 Seasonal swing in Groningen gas production (2010/11-2019/20)

25

20

bcm

15

10

5

0

-5
2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

It is important to highlight that in 2019/20, the seasonal swing turned into negative (-2 bcm). This has been
partly enabled by the higher pseudo L-gas output from nitrogen blending facilities on one hand and the greater
withdrawal rates from L-gas storages (primarily Norg).
5.1 Available storage volume of L-gas (in TWh) per country
Total L-gas storage capacity in Northwest Europe amounts to 98.4 TWh, with a total withdrawal capacity of 3,033
GWh/d.
Most of L-gas storage is located in the Netherlands18 (65 TWh or 66%) and Germany (20 TWh or 20%). There is
one L-gas storage facility in France with a capacity of 13.4 TWh. There is no L-gas storage in Belgium, which
relies on L-gas storages located in the Netherlands.
Almost two-thirds of withdrawal capacity is concentrated in the Netherlands, followed by Germany (26%).
France’s Gournay storage facility accounts for 8% of L-gas withdrawal capacity in northwest Europe. For more
details on L-gas storage please refer to Annex 4 of the Report.
It is important to highlight that Northwest Europe’s largest L-gas storage site, Norg, -located in the Netherlandshas been used to store pseudo L-gas since 1st April 2020. This allows for a more optimal utilization of nitrogen
blending plants, as the facility can be filled with pseudo L-gas that the market cannot absorb during the summer
season (April-September) of the GY.

18

This includes three of the Epe storage sites, which are physically located in Germany, but are incorporated in the Dutch gas
network.

22

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
Figure 5.2 L-gas storage distribution by markets (TWh)

13

20

65

Netherlands*

Germany

France

*including Norg
5.2 The role of L-gas storage during the 2019/20 heating season
Storage played a key role in meeting L-gas demand through the 2019/2020 heating season, compensating for Lgas production falling more rapidly (-8% or 23 TWh) than Dutch L-gas consumption (-3% or 9.6 TWh).
Net storage withdrawals increased by 32% (or 18 TWh) year-on-year from 56.6 in 2018/19 to 74.7 TWh during
the 2019/20 heating season. The Norg storage facility19 in the Netherlands alone accounted for 70% of total net
storage withdrawals and for closed to two-thirds of incremental storage supply during 2019/20 gas winter.
Figure 5.3 L-gas storage net withdrawals during the 2018/19 and 2019/20 heating seasons

+32%

80
70
60

TWh

50
40
30
20
10
0
2018/19
heating season
Netherlands*

France

2019/20
heating season
Germany

*including Epe Eneco storage site located in Germany

19

Since the Norg storage is owned and operated by the same entity who owns and operates the Groningen field and has a direct
connection with the Groningen field, the Norg capacity and working volume are taken into account in the Groningen production
decisions (Dutch Mining Act, article 52c).

23

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
Gas supply from storage sites accounted for over 20% of total L-gas consumption20 through the 2019/20 heating
season, up from 15% during the same period in 2018/19.

6. H-gas imports into the Netherlands
As a consequence of its declining domestic production (see Chapter 5), the Netherlands almost doubled its natural
gas imports since 2014, from 259 TWh to 507.5 TWh in 2018 to become a net importer of natural gas for the
first time in its history.
The Netherlands’ position as a net importer of natural gas is particularly visible during the heating season. Net
imports of natural gas rose by more than four-fold in the 2019/2020 heating season compared with the same
period of the previous GY.
Figure 6.1 Net natural gas imports of the Netherlands per heating season (2006/07-2019/20)

10
5
0

bcm

-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30

More than half of the imported H-gas is being converted to L-gas to supply L-gas consumers both in the
Netherlands and in the export markets.
Consequently, the security of L-gas supply is becoming intimately linked to the deliverability of H-gas into the
Netherlands.
The Netherlands has three main entry points. Norwegian natural gas is imported via the Emden terminal in
Germany which feeds into the Dutch gas grid and has an entry capacity of 352 TWh/y. Russian imports to the
Netherlands need to transit via Germany through the Bunde/Oude Statenzijl interconnection, with an entry
capacity of 184 TWh/y. LNG from the global gas market can be imported via the Gate LNG Terminal, which has
an annual send-out capacity of 168 TWh/y.
There are also two import interconnectors with Belgium: Zelzate and Zebra, with a combined entry capacity of
over 143 TWh/y. Zebra has recently been acquired by GTS and will be integrated into the GTS network.
Moreover, the BBL pipeline – connecting the Netherlands and the United Kingdom – became bidirectional on 1
July 2019, enabling natural gas imports into the Netherlands with an annual capacity of 61.32 TWh/y.
Data provided by ENTSOG indicates that total H-gas entry flows to the Netherlands decreased by 5.2% (or 13.6
TWh) year-on-year through the 2019/20 heating season. This has been primarily due to the lower exit flows
primarily towards the United Kingdom, with flows on the BBL pipeline falling by almost tenfold from above 20
TWh during the 2018/19 gas winter to just above 2 TWh through the 2019/20 heating season.

20

Including L-gas produced and consumed in Germany.

24

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
Figure 6.2 provides a comparison of the imported volumes and the utilization rates21 of the importing facilities
through the last two heating seasons.
LNG imports into the Netherlands edged up by almost 23% (or 9.8 TWh) year-on-year, driving up the utilization
rate of the Gate LNG terminal to 63% from 51% through the 2018/19 heating season.
Figure 6.2 Natural gas imports to the Netherlands by main entry points and utilization rates in the
2018/19 and 2019/20 heating seasons*

140

100%
90%

120

80%

TWh

100

70%
60%

80

50%
60

40%
30%

40

20%
20

10%

0

0%
GATE

Emden
2018/19

Bunde
2019/20

Zebra
2018/19

Zelzate
2019/20

BBL

* the columns represent imported volumes in TWh, the lines show the utilization rates of the given entry point
Higher LNG imports and lower transit flows towards the United Kingdom weighed on the entry flows via Emden,
with imports plummeting by almost one-third (close to 38 TWh), driving down the utilization rate of Emden to
45% from 66% during the 2018/19 heating season.
Imports via the Bunde/Oude Statenzijl interconnection point with Germany decreased only slightly, by 6% (or
5.3 TWh), indicating a continued strong utilization rate of 88% through the 2019/20 heating season, down from
94% a year earlier.
Import flows from Belgium through Zebra and Zelzate almost doubled, significantly increasing the utilization rate
of Zelzate from 20% to 52%. It should be noted that LNG imports via the Zeebrugge terminal in Belgium and the
Dunkerque terminal in France increased by almost 40% (or 21 TWh) year-on-year through the 2019/20 heating
season, potentially incentivizing higher export flows towards the Netherlands.
Import flows via the BBL pipeline amounted to just above 2 TWh or 7% of the reverse capacity.
When considering these entry points, the annual spare import capacity of the Netherlands amounted to 202 TWh
through the 2019/20 heating season, comparing to ~250 TWh of gas consumption during that period of the year.
Based on TYNDP2020 dataset, ENTSOG performed several additional disruption case calculations to investigate if
sufficient H-gas supply can be delivered to the Northwest European markets in an average winter. Based on the
assumptions of the TYNDP2020 the results show that there will be sufficient transport capacity during disruptions
in an average year. Compared to TYNDP2018 (disruptions) calculations the configuration at European level has
improved thanks to increased potential from suppliers (specifically extra LNG volume delivered to existing LNG
terminals), new import routes in Europe (see TYNDP2020), and the reduced gas demand in France and the UK.
The planned increase of capacity on the German/Dutch border raises the flexibility towards the Netherlands. In
2021 ENTSOG will perform security of supply calculations in order to investigate the transport of gas in a cold
winter.22
The L-Gas Market Conversion Monitoring Task Force will continue to monitor and assess the deliverability of Hgas supply to the Netherlands and the Northwest European markets served by L-gas.

21

Actual import flows divided by firm capacity of the entry point (Lesser Of Rule applied).
For more details please contact Jacques REBEROL, Modelling Subject Manager, System Developpment at ENTSOG:
Jacques.Reberol@entsog.eu
22

25

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020

7. Conclusion & implications for Groningen production until 2029/30
The increase of H-gas conversion capacity via nitrogen blending in the Netherlands and the market conversion
from L-gas to H-gas in Germany, Belgium and France as well as the activities in the Netherlands to reduce the
consumption of L-gas, will ensure the security of L-gas supply to consumers in all markets both in an average
and in cold year.
Through the market conversion period, the role of enrichment will decline in line with the decreasing Groningen
production. Hence, nitrogen blending facilities will have an increasing role in meeting L-gas demand through the
next ten GYs.
Figure 7.1 L-gas supply-demand balance in an average year (GY 20/21-GY 29/30)

500
450
400
350

TWh

300
250
200
150
100
50
0
20/21

21/22
22/23
Groningen base

23/24
24/25
enrichment

25/26
26/27
27/28
28/29
29/30
nitrogen blending
Demand (average)

However, it may be necessary to maintain flexible Groningen production until the GY 2024/25, to meet L-gas
demand in the case of extreme cold days. This is currently being investigated. In the consecutive five GYs L-gas
supply flexibility will be entirely provided by L-gas enrichment and by the nitrogen blending facilities. The required
capacity will be discussed in the February 2021 report.
Figure 7.2 L-gas supply-demand balance in a cold year (GY 20/21-GY 29/30)

600
500

TWh

400
300
200
100
0
20/21

21/22

Groningen base
nitrogen flex

22/23

23/24

24/25

enrichment
Groningen flex

25/26

26/27

27/28

nitrogen blending
Demand (cold)

28/29

29/30

enrichment flex

26

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
The Covid-19 induced lockdowns had only a minor impact on the overall schedule of the conversion programs.
However, uncertainty around the evolution of the Covid-19 and its implications for the conversion planning and
construction of the Zuidbroek facility remains a key risk factor.

Annex
Annex I: Consumers demand for L-gas from the Netherlands through the 2018/19 and
2019/20 heating seasons
1.1 Consumers demand for L-gas from the Netherlands23 in the 2018/2019 heating season in TWh
Heating season 18/19

Germany

France

Belgium

Netherlands

Oct-18

12.6

3.1

3.2

16.8

Nov-18

16.9

5.1

5.4

26.7

Dec-18

20.3

5.7

6.2

30.1

Jan-19

24.4

6.6

7.5

36.0

Feb-19

18.3

4.9

5.4

26.3

Mar-19
Total

18.5

4.6

5.1

25.4

111.0

29.9

32.7

161.2

1.2 Consumers demand for L-gas from the Netherlands in the 2019/2020 heating season in TWh
Heating season 19/20

Total

Germany

France

Belgium

Netherlands

Oct-19

12.1

3.0

3.4

18.3

Nov-19

19.1

5.0

5.5

26.7

Dec-19

20.0

5.6

6.2

30.0

Jan-20

19.7

5.7

6.3

30.8

Feb-20

17.0

4.8

5.6

27.8

Mar-20

17.1

4.5

5.3

25.9

105.1

28.5

32.2

159.4

23

For Germany and Belgium, this accounts for imports of L-gas from the Netherlands and not total domestic demand. For France,
this accounts for final consumers demand per month, not taking into account L-gas injections/withdrawals in/from Gournay
storage and L/H blending. For the Netherlands, it accounts for domestic demand.

27

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
Annex II: Indication of the demand for L-gas from the Netherlands until GY 2029/30
2.1 Indication of the demand for L-gas from the Netherlands in Germany until GY 2029/30 (TWh)
Cold

Average

TWh

GWh/d

TWh

19/20

185.4

1145

166.7

20/21

171.7

1032

154.4

21/22

135.1

917

121.1

22/23

116.9

802

104.7

23/24

96.1

686

85.8

24/25

76.9

574

68.5

25/26

55.9

458

51.4

26/27

42.8

343

39.4

27/28

29.7

228

27.3

28/29

11.1

115

10.2

29/30

024

2

0.3

2.2 Indication of the demand for L-gas from the Netherlands in Belgium until GY 2029/30 (TWh)
Cold

Average

TWh

GWh/d

TWh

19/20

60.1

451.7

49.1

20/21

57.7

426.0

47.2

21/22

48.5

347.0

39.7

22/23

40.8

264.8

33.4

23/24

39.1

248.1

32.1

24/25

36.1

220.2

29.6

25/26

30.4

179.5

24.9

26/27

22.8

124.5

18.5

27/28

15.2

80.2

12.4

28/29

9.1

45.8

7.4

29/30

0.0

0.0

0.0

24

Please note that the remaining demand in the gas year 2029/30 (0.3 TWh / 100.000 kWh/h) is given by a regional grid in
Germany, that can only supplied via the Netherlands (Haanrade / Thyssengas).

28

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
2.3 Indication of the consumers demand for L-gas from the Netherlands in France25 until GY 2029/30 (TWh)
Cold

Average

TWh

GWh/d

TWh

45.2

382.7

42.4

20/21

44

373.9

41.2

21/22

42.3

361.6

39.7

22/23

38.6

324.8

36.2

23/24

32.8

269.8

30.8

24/25

24

190.7

22.5

25/26

16.8

132.4

15.7

26/27

10.1

64.7

9.5

27/28

4.3

15.3

4.1

28/29

0.9

0

0.8

29/30

0

0

0

19/20

2.4 Indication of the demand for L-gas in the Netherlands until GY 2029/30 (TWh)
Cold

Average

TWh

GWh/d

TWh

19/20

275.8

3045

237.8

20/21

267.1

2991

229.9

21/22

256.2

2930

219.8

22/23

239.1

2835

204.1

23/24

236.4

2804

201.7

24/25

232.5

2768

198.3

25/26

228.7

2730

195

26/27

225

2692

191.7

27/28

221.2

2654

188.4

28/29

217.4

2616

185.1

29/30

213.6

2578

181.8

25

For France, all data are provided on the basis of the 2016 conversion plan that has been authorized for an experimental phase.
The initial schedule is subject to change following the analysis of the results of this experimental phase.
The expected demand for France does not take into account the quantity of L-gas blended in the H-gas network (2,5 TWh during
gas year 2018-2019 for both technical and commercial blending). A technical blending volume of 0,4 TWh in 2020 is estimated.
Moreover, commercial blending may occur due to the oversize of the L-gas supply contract between Engie and GasTerra. Due to
the unability to forecast the L-gas excess volumes sold by Engie on the Dutch and Belgian markets and the unability to forecast
the efficiency of inter-TSO swaps, commercial blending of L-gas in the H-gas network could be anywhere between 0 and 20 TWh
in 2020.
The above forecasts for peak daily demands (in GWh/d) correspond to final L-gas consumers in France and they can be supplied
both by Taisnières B (Belgium/France interconnection point) and Gournay storage (and if necessary with nitrogen/H-gas blending
facility at Loon Plage, only for 19/20 and 20/21 winters).
The above forecasts for peak daily and annual L-gas demands (in GWh/d and TWh) are based on an evaluation of peak daily and
annual demands for each geographical sector to be converted for each year of the conversion period. For each year residual Lgas demand is the sum of gas demand for geographical sectors which are not yet converted to H-gas according to the current
provisional conversion planning in France.

29

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
Annex III: Expected market conversion volume until GY 2029/30
3.1 Expected market conversion volume in Germany until GY 2029/30 (TWh)
Gas year

Volume converted
[TWh]

Number of installations
[Thousands]

18.1
31.8
19.3
25.4
20.2
23.7
17.2
17
15.1
8.5
0

19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
23/24
24/25
25/26
26/27
27/28
28/29
29/30

389
574
495
552
505
514
499
458
232
191
0

3.2 Expected market conversion volume in Belgium until GY 2029/30 (TWh)
Gas year

Volume converted
[TWh]

Number of
installations
[Thousands]

1.92
7.53
6.25
1.36
2.52
4.66
6.42
6.1
4.96
7.42
0

19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
23/24
24/25
25/26
26/27
27/28
28/29
29/30

129.76
323.02
335.75
71.1
101.63
96.25
166.14
129.57
91.04
212.31
0

3.3 Expected market conversion volume in France until GY 2029/30 (TWh)
Gas year

Volume converted
[TWh]

19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
23/24
24/25
25/26
26/27
27/28
28/29
29/30

1.2
1.5
3.5
5.4
8.3
6.8
6.2
5.4
4.3
0.8
0

Number of
connections
[Thousands]

19
42
60
120
180
180
240
200
180
40
0

30

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
Annex IV: Indication of the L-gas production until GY 2029/30
4.1 Indication of the L-gas production in the Netherlands from Groningen until GY 2029/30 (TWh)

19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
23/24
24/25
25/26
26/27
27/28
28/29
29/30

Cold
156
140
71
4
2
1
0
0
0
0
0

Average
104.5
89
30
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0

4.2 Indication of the L-gas production in Germany until GY 2029/30 (TWh)

19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
23/24
24/25
25/26
26/27
27/28
28/29
29/30

Cold
42
38
36
33
30
27
24
22
19
18
15

Average
42
38
36
33
30
27
24
22
19
18
15

31

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
Annex V: L-gas storage in northwest Europe
5.1 Working gas volume and daily withdrawal capacity of L-gas storage sites in Germany, France and the
Netherlands

Working gas (TWh)
Germany
Lesum
Nüttermoor L-Gas
Speicherzone L-Gas (EWE)
Empelde
Epe L-Gas (innogy)
Epe L-Gas (UES)
France
Gournay
the Netherlands
EnergyStock
Norg (Langelo)
Alkmaar
Epe Nuon
Epe Eneco
Epe Innogy
Peakshaver

Withdrawal rate (GWh/d)

1.44
0.43
9.67
3.55
1.77
4.48

52
24
247
73
98
285

13

248

3
49
5
3
1
3
1

252
742
357
117
95
119
312

5.2 Net withdrawals (in TWh) of L-gas per country in 2018/19 and 2019/20 heating seasons

TWh
The Netherlands
France
Germany

2018/19

2019/20

41.5
11.9
3.14

58.9
10.3
5.5

32

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020
Annex VI: Climatological context
GTS will make an analysis of the climatological context in the L-gas region. GTS will use the temperature
measurements of the measurement station in De Bilt to determine this context. This will then be used to analyse
the difference between the expected demand in an average year and the realized demand using GTS’ degree day
method.
L-gas is predominantly used in the residential sector for space heating, therefore L-gas gas demand is strongly
correlated with the temperature and wind. This is also the reason why the allowed Groningen production is
determined by the number of degree days in a year. The definition of the degree days is given in the Dutch Gas
Act. As stated in the Dutch Gas Act, both the temperature and wind are measured at weather station the Bilt.
The number of degree days can be calculated by
D = Σ max[(14 – Teff),0]
Where:
D = the number of degree days
14 = heating limit (the so-called “stookgrens”)
Teff = daily average effective temperature
Teff = T – (V/1.5)
Where:
T = daily average temperature
V = daily average wind speed
In the 2019/20 heating season there were 1716 degree days (including leap day), slightly higher than the 1699
degree days recorded during the 2018/19 heating season.

33

L-Gas Market Conversion Review – Summer Report 2020

Contributors
This report is compiled by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the European Network of Transmission System
Operators for Gas (ENTSO-G), the Netherlands Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy and Gasunie
Transport Services (GTS) in close collaboration with:
Germany
Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy

Stefan Rolle, Andreas Krallmann

Federal Network Agency

Elena Albrecht, Andreas Muller

TSO: Open Grid Europe

Frank Harlacher

TSO: Gasunie Deutschland

Matthias Schulz, Dennis Schulle, Raphael Braun

TSO: Thyssengas

Philipp Behmer

TSO: GTG Nord

Jann Keller, Jörg Saalfeld

TSO: Nowega

Sebastian Koch

France
Ministry for Ecological and Inclusive Transition

Etienne Denieul, Samir El Kanbi, Carole Mercier

Energy Regulatory Commission

Anne-Sophie Dessillons

TSO: GRTgaz

Rémy Champavère

Belgium
Federal Public Service Economy

Bernard Picron, Pierre Paladin
Benjamin Heylen

Commission for Electricity and Gas Regulation

Christian Cuijpers

TSO: Fluxys Belgium

Denis Bawin, Damien Vliegen

The Netherlands
Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy

Rodrigo Pinto Scholtbach (chairman), Wim van ‘t
Hof, Dennis Clement, Sjoerd Rooijakkers

Gasunie Transport Services

Jan Albert Laverman, Anne Spijkstra

Authority for Consumers & Markets

Anneke Francois

International Energy Agency (IEA)

Jean-Baptiste Dubreuil, Gergely Molnar

European Network of Transmission System
Operators for Gas (ENTSO-G)

Jacques Reberol, Hendrik Pollex

Secretariat-General of the Benelux Union

Geert Wegman

European Commission

Carmen-Magdalena Oprea

34