#AdaptOurWorld

ADAPT NOW: A GLOBAL CALL FOR
LEADERSHIP ON CLIMATE RESILIENCE

THE GLOBAL COMMISSION ON ADAPTATION
The Global Commission on Adaptation seeks to accelerate adaptation by elevating the political
visibility of adaptation and focusing on concrete solutions.
The Commission is led by Ban Ki-moon, 8th Secretary-General of the United Nations, Bill Gates,
Co-chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Kristalina Georgieva, CEO, World Bank.
It is guided by 34 Commissioners, consisting of leaders from political, business, multilateral,
and scientific worlds; and it is convened by 20 countries. A global network of research partners
and advisors support the Commission. The Commission is co-managed by World Resources
Institute and the Global Center on Adaptation.

ABOUT THIS REPORT
This report focuses on making the case for climate adaptation, providing specific insights
and recommendations in key sectors: food security, the natural environment, water, cities and
urban areas, infrastructure, disaster risk management, and finance. It is designed to inspire
action among decision-makers, including heads of state and government officials, mayors,
business executives, investors, and community leaders.

COMMISSIONERS
Ban Ki-moon, 8th Secretary-General of the United Nations

Strive Masiyiwa, Founder and Executive Chairman, Econet Wireless

Bill Gates, Co-chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Catherine McKenna, Minister of Environment and Climate Change,
Canada

Kristalina Georgieva, CEO, World Bank
Akinwumi Adesina, President, African Development Bank
Inger Andersen, Executive Director, United Nations Environment
Programme
Michelle Bachelet, United Nations High Commissioner for
Human Rights
Winnie Byanyima, Executive Director, Oxfam International
Peter Damgaard Jensen, CEO, PKA Ltd.
Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary, United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change

José Antonio Meade, Former Finance Minister, Mexico
C.K. Mishra, Secretary, Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate
Change, India
Keith Mitchell, Prime Minister, Grenada
Gerd Müller, Federal Minister of Economic Cooperation and
Development, Germany
Muhammad Musa, Executive Director, BRAC International
Cora van Nieuwenhuizen, Minister of Infrastructure and Water
Management, Netherlands
Sheela Patel, Chair, Shack/Slum Dwellers International

Christiana Figueres, Former Executive Secretary, United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change & Founding Partner,
Global Optimism

Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, Attorney General and Minister for Economy,
Public Enterprises, Civil Service and Communications, Fiji

Li Ganjie, Minister of Ecology and Environment, China

Feike Sijbesma, CEO and Chairman, Royal DSM

Hilda Heine, President, Marshall Islands

Andrew Steer, President and CEO, World Resources Institute

Anne Hidalgo, Mayor, Paris

Achim Steiner, Administrator, United Nations Development
Programme

Emma Howard Boyd, Chair of the Environment Agency,
United Kingdom
Naoko Ishii, CEO and Chairperson, Global Environment Facility
Agnes Kalibata, President, Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa
Loren Legarda, Deputy Speaker and Antique Congresswoman,
Philippines

Francis Suarez, Mayor, Miami
Elhadj As Sy, Secretary General, International Federation of
Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization
Shemara Wikramanayake, CEO, Macquarie Group Ltd.

This report and its Action Tracks were produced on behalf of the Global Commission on Adaptation. Commissioners serve in their
personal capacity, contributing to the report’s content, based on their individual expertise. As such, the report does not necessarily
reflect all views of each Commissioner’s respective organization, institution, or government. Further, Commissioners’ support for the
report does not imply their full engagement in all of the proposed Action Tracks.

CONVENING COUNTRIES
Established initially by the Netherlands, the Commission is now co-convened by 19 other
countries. This growing movement of countries supports the Commission in its mission to
forge a bold strategic vision for accelerating adaptation; it shares the Commission’s goal of
catalyzing global adaptation solutions around the world. These national governments have not
been asked to formally endorse this report.
Argentina

Germany

Senegal

Bangladesh

Grenada

South Africa

Canada

India

United Arab Emirates

China

Indonesia

United Kingdom

Costa Rica

Marshall Islands

Uzbekistan

Denmark

Mexico

Vietnam

Ethiopia

Netherlands

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Foreword............................................................................................ 1

Executive Summary............................................................................ 3

Part I: A Call to Action........................................................................ 8
Chapter 1: Adapt Now.........................................................................................

9

Part II: Accelerating Adaptation in Key Systems................................. 22
Chapter 2: Food Security and Livelihoods of Small-Scale Producers........... 23
Chapter 3: Natural Environment........................................................................ 30
Chapter 4: Water................................................................................................... 35
Chapter 5: Cities and Urban Areas.................................................................... 39
Chapter 6: Infrastructure..................................................................................... 44
Chapter 7: Disaster Risk Management............................................................ 48
Chapter 8: Financing Adaptation....................................................................... 52

Part III: The Immediate Imperative: A Year of Action........................... 58

Acknowledgments / Partners............................................................................ 64
Acronyms............................................................................................................... 71
Endnotes................................................................................................................ 72

FOREWORD
A young woman in Bangladesh hears a siren of an incoming typhoon and moves her family to safety. A farmer in
Zimbabwe uses a new variety of maize that is more resistant to drought. In Denmark, engineers redesign city streets
to make them less prone to flooding. A business executive in Indonesia uses data and maps on water risk to inform his
investments. An urban planner in Colombia paints roofs white to deflect dangerous heat.
This is what climate adaptation looks like. Examples like these are taking root and beginning to spread. Of course, not all
communities have the same capacity to adapt, and those in fragile areas and living in poverty are most vulnerable.
The world has a moral responsibility to respond in a way that improves lives and livelihoods for all. To end poverty and
achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, the world must drastically cut emissions and adapt to a warming world. The
sooner we act, the better off we will be.
Adaptation is an economic imperative as well. This report finds that investing in adaptation, and in the innovation that
comes with it, can unlock new opportunities and spur change across the globe. Adaptation can provide a triple dividend:
it avoids economic losses, brings positive gains, and delivers additional social and environmental benefits.
There are bright spots, but so far the response has been gravely insufficient. Meanwhile, the climate crisis is here, now: wildfires
ravage fragile habitats, city taps run dry, droughts scorch the land, and floods destroy people’s homes and livelihoods.
What will it take to meet the challenge?
Government officials and business leaders need to radically rethink how they make decisions. We need a revolution in
understanding, planning, and finance that makes climate risks visible, incorporates these risks into all decisions, and
releases public and private financial flows.
Adaptation can bring out bold ideas and inspire innovation beyond what people currently think is possible. Most of all, we
need political leadership that shakes people out of their collective slumber.
This Commission was formed to raise the visibility of climate adaptation on the global agenda and inspire action. It brings
together over 30 Commissioners and 20 convening countries, from nearly every sector and every region of the world. We
are united by a collective determination to accelerate adaptation.
We are working with many partners to support a Year of Action, starting in September 2019, that will jump-start
the necessary transitions for change. Together, these actions form a comprehensive platform for urgent, bold, and
equitable adaptation.
We have reason for hope. Throughout history, people have adapted to change. In turbulent times, they have found ways to
reduce risks and create new opportunities. With ingenuity and resourcefulness, people have overcome the most extraordinary
challenges—from eradicating disease to rebounding from the devastation of war. We need this courageous spirit today.
We call for global leadership on climate adaptation to create safer, stronger, and thriving communities around the world.
Our work is just beginning. We hope you will join us to adapt our world.

Ban Ki-moon
Chair

Kristalina Georgieva
Co-chair

Bill Gates
Co-chair

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

1

We face a crisis.
Climate change is upon us, and its impacts are getting more severe with each passing year.
Global actions to slow climate change are promising but insufficient. We must invest in a
massive effort to adapt to conditions that are now inevitable: higher temperatures, rising
seas, fiercer storms, more unpredictable rainfall, and more acidic oceans.
We are not starting from a standstill. There are many bright spots where adaptation efforts
have begun—but we need more urgency, innovation, and scale.
Adaptation is not an alternative to a redoubled effort to stop climate change, but an
essential complement to it. Failing to lead and act on adaptation will result in a huge
economic and human toll, causing widespread increases in poverty and severely
undermining long-term global economic prospects.
The good news is that adaptation, done right, will lead to better growth and development.
It will also save lives, protect nature, reduce inequalities, and create opportunities.
We can do it.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
ADAPT NOW: THE URGENCY OF ACTION
Climate change is one of the greatest threats facing humanity,

girls, who, in most of the world, have little voice in decisions

with far-reaching and devastating impacts on people, the envi-

that affect their lives. It also puts an unfair burden on future

ronment, and the economy. Climate impacts affect all regions

generations. Solutions to these climate-related inequities

of the world and cut across all sectors of society. People who

must address underlying power structures and dynamics.

did the least to cause the problem—especially those living in

We will not accept a world where only some can adapt, and

poverty and fragile areas—are most at risk.

others cannot.

Consider:

THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPERATIVE

• Without adaptation, climate change may depress growth in

The natural environment is humanity’s first line of defense

million small farms around the world will be most affected.

thriving natural environment is fundamental to adaptation

global agriculture yields up to 30 percent by 2050. The 500

• The number of people who may lack sufficient water, at

against floods, droughts, heat waves, and hurricanes. A
in every human enterprise. Yet, one in four species is facing
extinction, about a quarter of all ice-free land is now subject

least one month per year, will soar from 3.6 billion today to

to degradation, ocean temperatures and acidity are rising,

more than 5 billion by 2050.

and climate change is accelerating the loss of natural assets

• Rising seas and greater storm surges could force hundreds
of millions of people in coastal cities from their homes,
with a total cost to coastal urban areas of more than

everywhere. There is still time to protect and work with nature
to build resilience and reduce climate risks at all scales, but
the window is closing.

THE ECONOMIC IMPERATIVE

$1 trillion each year by 2050.

• Climate change could push more than 100 million people

within developing countries below the poverty line by 2030.

The costs of climate change on people and the economy are
clear. The toll on human life is irrefutable. The question is how
will the world respond: Will we delay and pay more or plan
ahead and prosper?

Adapting now is in our strong economic self-interest.
The Commission found that the overall rate of return
on investments in improved resilience is very high, with
benefit-cost ratios ranging from 2:1 to 10:1, and in some
cases even higher (see Figure ES.1).
Specifically, our research finds that investing $1.8 trillion
globally in five areas from 2020 to 2030 could generate

The Imperatives for
Accelerating Adaptation
Accelerating climate change adaptation is a human,
environmental, and economic imperative:

$7.1 trillion in total net benefits. In other words, failing
to seize the economic benefits of climate adaptation with
high-return investments would undermine trillions of dollars in
potential growth and prosperity. The five areas we considered
for this estimate are early warning systems, climate-resilient
infrastructure, improved dryland agriculture crop production,
global mangrove protection, and investments in making water
resources more resilient. These areas are illustrative, based on

THE HUMAN IMPERATIVE
Climate change exacerbates existing inequities by widening
the gap between people with wealth and people living in
poverty. It has a disproportionate impact on women and

available data on economic returns: the full report has broader
recommendations across seven systems that go beyond
these five areas.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

3

FIGURE ES.1

Benefits and Costs of Illustrative Investments in Adaptation

Benefit-Cost Ratio
1:1

5:1

Net Benefits
10:1

Strengthening early warning systems

$0.1T

Making new infrastructure resilient

$4.0T

Improving dryland agriculture
crop production

$0.7T

Protecting mangroves

$1.0T

Making water resources
management more resilient

$1.4T
Total Net Benefits

$7.1T

Note: This graph is meant to illustrate the broad economic case for investment in a range of adaptation approaches. The net benefits illustrate the approximate
global net benefits to be gained by 2030 from an illustrative investment of $1.8 trillion in five areas (the total does not equal the sum of the rows due to rounding).
Actual returns depend on many factors, such as economic growth and demand, policy context, institutional capacities, and condition of assets. Also, these
investments neither address all that may be needed within sectors (for example, adaptation in the agricultural sector will consist of much more than dryland crop
production) nor include all sectors (as health, education, and industry sectors are not included). Due to data and methodological limitations, this graph does not
imply full comparability of investments across sectors or countries.
Source: World Resources Institute.

We find that adaptation actions bring multiple benefits,

Better awareness of and evidence for all three dividends

which we call the triple dividend. The first dividend is avoided

will make the economic imperative case for adaptation ever

losses, that is, the ability of the investment to reduce future

stronger. We expand on the triple dividends in the Box ES.1.

losses. The second is positive economic benefits through
reducing risk, increasing productivity, and driving innovation
through the need for adaptation; the third is social and environmental benefits. In Figure ES.1, all five areas have avoided loss
benefits, and the last three—improved dryland crop production,
mangrove protection, and water resources management—

Three Revolutions
for a Better Future
The case for ambitious adaptation is clear, but it’s not

have further economic, and social and environmental benefits.

happening at nearly the pace and scale required. This is

While avoiding losses is the most common motivation for invest-

factored into decisions by those who make choices about the

ing in resilience, taken alone such losses underestimate the total
benefits to society. Many adaptation actions generate significant
additional economic, social, and environmental benefits, which
accrue on an ongoing basis starting at the time of investment
and are not dependent on the future state of the climate. In other
words, they are both more certain and more immediate.

4

Global Commission on Adaptation

because climate impacts and risks are not yet adequately
future. Achieving the change needed requires revolutions in
three areas:
A Revolution in Understanding to ensure that the risks
societies and economies face are fully understood—and
reflected in the decisions that public and private actors make.
A key element is the need to make risk visible, requiring more

BOX ES.1

The Triple Dividend in Action
Avoided losses:
• Early warning systems save lives and assets worth at
least ten times their cost. Just 24 hours warning of a
coming storm or heat wave can cut the ensuing damage
by 30 percent, and spending $800 million on such
systems in developing countries would avoid losses of
$3–16 billion per year.

INVESTING IN ADAPTATION YIELDS

• Making infrastructure more climate-resilient can add
about 3 percent to the upfront costs but has benefitcost ratios of about 4:1. With $60 trillion in projected
infrastructure investments between 2020 and 2030, the
potential benefits of early adaptation are enormous.

SOCIAL & ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS

AVOIDED LOSSES
ECONOMIC BENEFITS

A TRIPLE DIVIDEND

Economic benefits:
• Reducing flood risks in urban areas lowers financial costs, increases security, and makes investments that
would otherwise be too vulnerable to climate risks more viable. London’s Canary Wharf and other
developments in East London would have been impossible without flood protection from the Thames
Barrier.
• Drip irrigation technologies, first developed to address severe water scarcity, are spreading because they
lead to higher crop productivity than traditional irrigation systems.
Social and environmental benefits:
• Mangrove forests provide more than $80 billion per year in avoided losses from coastal flooding—and
protect 18 million people. They also contribute almost as much ($40–50 billion per year) in non market
benefits associated with fisheries, forestry, and recreation. Combined, the benefits from mangrove
preservation and restoration are up to 10 times the costs.

precise characterization of who and what is at risk—and why.

through risk screening, environmental and social impact

As part of making risk visible, the public and private sectors can

assessments, budgeting, permitting, and project design. Since

work together to more explicitly price risk in both economic and

many climate impacts are local, devolving planning and even

financial decision-making. Equally important is to understand

financial responsibility to those most affected is critical. In the

what works and what options to prioritize by supporting

private sector, companies worldwide are starting to improve

experiential learning, stimulating innovations in science and

planning to protect their operations and assets from climate

technology, sharing solutions, and piloting new business

risks, but current levels of physical risk disclosure remain low.

models and financial services. It is important to consider all

Both the public and private sectors need to learn to better

forms of knowledge, recognizing that valuable local knowledge

incorporate high levels of uncertainty in their decision-making,

rests with communities and indigenous populations.

as choices will need to be made soon between radically

A Revolution in Planning to improve how we make policy and
investment decisions and how we implement solutions. The

different options—long before we know if the world will
actually be on a 1.5°C or a 4°C pathway.

climate challenge is both urgent and pervasive across virtually

A Revolution in Finance to mobilize the funds and resources

all economic sectors. Mainstreaming in the public sector

necessary to accelerate adaptation. Even though the

begins with upstream macroeconomic analysis and extends

imperative for action is clear, money is not flowing at the

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

5

pace or scale needed. The public sector, first, is an essential
provider of finance to protect people and livelihoods across
communities and sectors; and second, is an enabler
of increased private sector finance through disclosure
requirements, metrics, and incentives, like buying down the
risk of providing financial services to small-holder producers.
The private sector will increase investments on its own
account, but it should also increasingly complement the
public sector in sharing the costs and benefits of adaptation
investments, such as for infrastructure, contingency finance,
and insurance. Finally, there is a critical need for higher
levels of international financial support for adaptation in
developing countries.
Fully implemented, these three revolutions will protect lives,
livelihoods, homes, and jobs in the face of climate change.

Accelerating Adaptation in
Key Economic Systems
We must apply these revolutions to the key economic
systems affected by climate change: systems that
produce food, protect and manage water and the natural
environment, plan and build our cities and infrastructure,
protect people from disasters, and provide financing for a
more resilient future. The report shows how the climate
crisis is disrupting these systems and offers specific,
actionable recommendations for how to respond.
Food: Global demand for food will increase by 50 percent and
yields may decline by up to 30 percent by 2050 in the absence
of ambitious climate action. A more resilient food future will rely
on sharp increases in agricultural R&D, which has demonstrated
benefit-cost ratios between 2:1 and 17:1; better alignment of
government finance and incentives for farmers with long-term,
sustainable, climate-smart production; and a step change in
access to information, innovative technologies, and finance
to enhance the resilience of 500 million small-scale farming
households whose livelihoods are most critically impacted by
climate change.
Natural Environment: Nature-based solutions regulate
water flows, protect shorelines, cool cities, and complement
built infrastructure. Despite underpinning the resilience
of communities and economies, nature is rapidly being
degraded. Large-scale protection and restoration of nature
will require accelerating progress to meet existing political
commitments, such as through the Convention on Biological
Diversity; appropriately valuing natural assets in land use and

6

Global Commission on Adaptation

investment decisions; and increasing the scale of public and
private resources to safeguard nature. Many nature-based
adaptation solutions are also beneficial for mitigation and can
provide one-third of the climate mitigation needed between
now and 2030 to keep global warming below 2°C.
Water: Climate change is integrally connected to water
systems and resources. Successful adaptation will require
scaled-up investments in healthy watersheds and water infrastructure, dramatic improvements in efficiency of water use,
and the integration of new climate risks, such as floods and
droughts, at every level of planning and operation. More efficient water allocation and use will be vital to economic growth
in the face of climate change: without such approaches, the
GDPs of India, China and Central Asia would be from 7 to 12
percent lower, and much of Africa would be about 6 percent
lower by 2050. Countries that make water management a top
national priority, backed up by major governance changes and
investments, are more likely to adapt and prosper; those that
do not will experience serious challenges.
Cities: Urban areas are home to more than half the global population and are centers of opportunity and innovation. Adaptation
efforts, if designed well, can take advantage of this transformative energy and generate high economic returns. In coastal cities,
for instance, the cost of good adaptation is one-tenth the cost
of no action. To plan and deliver more resilient urban services,
cities everywhere need to invest in better climate risk information and technical capacity, drawing on credible topographic
and community-level data. They should also invest in naturebased solutions to tackle water and heat risks, and in upgrading
the living conditions of the 880 million people living in informal
settlements that are highly vulnerable to climate change.
Infrastructure: Ports, roads, power, sanitation, sewer, and
communications systems are all examples of infrastructure
assets at risk from climate change. Climate-proofing
existing infrastructure and building new infrastructure that
is more climate resilient makes sound economic sense—on
average, the benefits outweigh costs by 4:1. Investments
in infrastructure need to directly build resilience, whether
for storm-water drainage in cities or protecting coastal
communities against sea-level rise. This will require
developing blended public-private approaches that share
the costs and benefits of investing in resilient infrastructure.
Finally, we need to go beyond protecting individual assets to
ensuring that whole systems are more resilient by making the
right choices about where and what to build, which existing
assets to upgrade, prioritizing green infrastructure wherever
possible, and ensuring infrastructure continues to function
even as damages occur.

Disaster Risk Management: Climate change is often most vis-

We will support efforts to integrate climate risk into all aspects

ible when seen through changes in the intensity and frequency

of national financial planning and decision-making, while also

of disasters: hurricanes, floods, heat waves, and wildfires.

calling for significant increases in the volume of devolved

In the face of more common extreme weather events and

and decentralized funding available to local governments,

climate-related disasters, we need to prevent, protect and

cities, and community-based organizations. We will marshal

recover. We need to proactively yet voluntarily move people

a doubling of the scale of agricultural research for climate

and assets out of harm’s way through better planning and

resilience. We will seek to transform how infrastructure

investment decisions. At the same time, we need to scale up

investment decisions are made. We will call for scaled-up

efforts to warn and prepare people ahead of disasters, actions

investment to improve people’s ability to act ahead of extreme

that can dramatically reduce the loss of life, and exhibit very

weather events, reduce deaths and human suffering, and

high returns on investment. Finally, social safety nets and

lessen economic impacts. We will galvanize national, local,

improvements in forecast-based planning can help hasten

and private sector leadership for nature-based solutions. And

recovery from disasters when they do strike.

we will seek to strengthen the resilience of natural freshwater
and critical human water systems to reduce risks for billions

The Way Forward:
The Year of Action

of people facing high water stress and for those whose lives
are impacted by floods and droughts.
The next 15 months are critical to mobilizing action on climate
change and support global development. The Commission will

While the major transitions proposed in this report will take
time to fully implement, it is essential that they start right away
and with great urgency. For this reason, the Commission * —
through Commissioner commitments and in partnership with
others—will devote the coming 15 months to driving a set

champion the Action Tracks at the UN Climate Action Summit
in September 2019 and throughout the coming year, including
importantly at the Climate Adaptation Summit in the Netherlands
in October 2020. The Commission will also aim to encourage
countries to raise the level of ambition on adaptation in the lead up

of Action Tracks that are essential to jump-start the needed

to the international climate summit, COP26, in December 2020.

transitions. In some cases, these actions will involve mobilizing political, technical, and financial support to existing
initiatives; in other cases, they will entail forging new coalitions
for change.

We invite collaboration from all segments of society—
governments, the private sector, civil society, and citizens
around the global—to join us in urgently taking this
agenda forward.

FIGURE ES.2

Adapt Now: The Way Forward

R E VOLU T I ON S
SYST EMS

Understanding

Food
Natural
Environment
Water

Planning

Cities

ACT IO N

Infrastructure

Driven by 8 Action Tracks

Disaster Risk
Management

Finance

YEAR OF
SEP 2019

DEC 2020

Finance

* In the following paragraphs we use the pronoun “we” to refer to individual or groups of Commissioners, Action Track partners, and Managing Partners as the ones
carrying forward commitments to action—not all members of the Commission or the Commission as whole.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

7

PART I

A Call to Action

CHAPTER 1:
ADAPT NOW
Introduction

The Climate Crisis

Climate adaptation is a human, environmental, and economic

The warming climate is already causing profound impacts.

imperative. People who did the least to cause the problem—

Climate risks manifest themselves in many ways—from the

especially those in developing countries and those living in

slow and inexorable rise in sea level to the erratic behavior of

relative poverty everywhere—are most at risk. But as recent

monsoons, and the strengthening of storms and heat waves.

events have revealed, no one and no place will be spared.

It does not matter if you’re a coffee farmer in Colombia, an

Fortunately, throughout history, people have shown the

autoworker in Bangkok, or an elderly person in Paris—your

resourcefulness to overcome great challenges. People want

health, well-being, and livelihood are at risk.

to shape their future, not be victim to it. The climate crisis is
already generating demands for change, including from young
people around the world.

The tell-tale fingerprint of climate change is increasingly seen
in disasters: the intense rainfall during Hurricane Harvey in
Houston,1 the devastating 2017 floods and mudslides in Peru,2

We need leadership at all levels to accelerate climate adapta-

the deadly 2018 heat wave in Japan,3 and unprecedented

tion. This Commission—consisting of 34 Commissioners and

wildfires in 2017 in Canada.4 It can also be seen in the steady

convened by 20 countries—was formed to raise adaptation on

but relentless warming taking place, with the last five years

the global agenda and inspire courageous action.

being the hottest ever recorded.5

In the following pages, we make the case for bold adaptation

Coupled with the increasing hazards are the rapid increase

action, provide specific insights and recommendations by

in exposure due to population growth and the expansion of

key sectors, and introduce major initiatives to jump-start

cities and industry that place more people and assets at risk,

a Year of Action. What brings us together is a common

particularly along coastlines. In addition, 500 million small

desire to unleash a wave of adaptation at local, national, and

farms around the world are exposed to increasing changes

global levels that creates safer, stronger, and more thriving

in temperature and precipitation.6 Even worse, few of these

communities for all.

smallholder farmers have access to the resilient crops,
drought-proof water supplies, and financing needed to pull
through when the rains fail.
The effects of climate change will only increase over the next
few decades, given the unavoidable changes that are already

People want to
shape their future,
not be victim to it.

locked in because of current and near-term emissions. Even
if the world were to successfully meet the Paris Agreement
target of limiting the global average temperature increase to
well below 2°Celsius (°C), impacts would be much larger in
some regions. Land warms roughly twice as fast as the planet
overall. Therefore, when scientists discuss preventing “1.5°C
of global warming,” they are really talking about forestalling
3°C—or 5.1 degrees Fahrenheit—of higher land temperatures.7

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

9

Moreover, temperatures may climb even higher, because the

The challenge of responding to climate impacts is

world is not yet on a path to meet the Paris climate targets.

compounded by uncertainty about how the future climate

Current commitments do not support the rapid and deep

will unfold. To a certain point, incremental approaches

emissions reductions—a halving of current levels within the

will suffice, such as continued improvements in water

next decade—needed to achieve these targets. On the current

management or conventional approaches for flood protection

path, global average temperatures are likely to climb to more

and land use. But that may not always be the case: with more

than 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels before midcentury, and

uncertain and dramatic impacts of higher temperatures,

would exceed 3 C by the end of the century.

incremental adaptation will be insufficient and transformative

8

o

9

Highly damaging scenarios are plausible, not just putting
the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) out of reach but
eroding hard-won gains from the past, and threatening the
existence and livelihoods of many communities and societies—from subsistence farmers to agribusiness, and from
low-lying atolls to cities like Lagos, Miami, and Shanghai. Every
tenth of a degree rise in temperature matters as impacts scale

approaches will be needed. For example, protecting against
or accommodating sea-level rise in low-lying areas may
no longer be possible—and coastal residents may need to
systematically retreat. Many farmers will need to consider if
they can continue farming at all on their current land. While
uncertainty can be managed, tough choices will become
inevitable with higher temperature increases.

quickly, even exponentially. At higher temperature increases

Even with the most ambitious adaptation actions, we will face

such as 3–4 C, it becomes almost certain that we will cross

residual climate impacts. For this reason, ambitious mitigation

tipping points, or irreversible changes in ecosystems or cli-

is the best form of adaptation. Emissions reductions minimize

mate patterns, which will limit our ability to adapt. Figure 1.1

the scale of the problem to be addressed and reduce future

describes the magnitude and severity of consequences in key

uncertainties. Choosing between adaptation and mitigation is

systems that are at risk—and where this report puts forward

a false choice—we must do both.

o

10

an ambitious agenda to build resilience.

FIGURE 1.1

The Risk of Catastrophic Events Increases with Temperature

Global food
supply
disruptions

+3.5°C

Over 400m
people
exposed and
vulnerable to
crop yield
losses

+3°C

+2.5°C

7–10% loss
of rangeland
livestock
globally

+2°C

6% decline
in global
average maize
crop yield

+1.5°C

Permafrost
collapse

More than a
meter of sea
level rise for
coastal cities
by 2080

10 months
average length of
drought (up from 2
months at 1.5°C)

Rain forest
dieback
Decline due to
reduction of
geographic range
by more than half:

Annual flood
damage losses
from sea level
rise:

36% increase
in frequency of
rainfall extremes
over land

18%: insects
16%: plants
8%: vertebrates

$11.7tn

$10.2tn

271 million
people exposed
to water scarcity

Extensive coral
reef decline by
70–90%

% of population
exposed to more
than 20 days a
year of deadly
heat by 2100:
Significant
stress to
global
transportation,
energy,
housing, and
other essential
infrastructure
that would
lead to
progressively
worse damage
with each
degree of
warming

74%

54%
48%

+1°C

Food

Natural
Environment

Water

Source: World Resources Institute, adapted from the IPCC and others. 11

10

Global Commission on Adaptation

Cities

Infrastructure

Disaster Risk
Management

A Human Imperative

Climate change has disproportionate impacts on women

We believe that adaptation is a human, environmental, and

existing biases within many of the institutions tasked with

economic imperative. Climate change will exacerbate existing

providing development and adaptation support.14 Agricultural

inequities by widening the gap between people with wealth

institutions underinvest in seeds, climate services, and

and people living in poverty, adding to gender inequities, and

insurance packages that are for crops predominantly

increasing the already unfair burden on future generations.

tended by women; financial institutions design lending

Globally, tropical and subtropical countries face greater

packages that are inaccessible to women despite a plethora

climate impacts and have less capacity to withstand them

of evidence that women are more reliable borrowers; and

than countries in temperate zones. Within developing

urban planners ignore women’s needs for access to services,

countries, climate change could push more than 100 million

educational institutions, and employment opportunities.

12

and girls. Climate impacts on women are compounded by

people below the poverty line by 2030. Atoll nations may

Political leadership will be essential, since climate adaptation

become unlivable this century, with human, social, and

interventions that ignore gender inequalities only deepen

psychological costs that cannot be overstated (see Box 1).

existing vulnerabilities and encourage new types of exclusion.

13

BOX 1

The Urgency of Action for Atoll Nations
Low-lying atoll nations are especially threatened by climate change, with many islands mere meters above
sea level and subject to more frequent and intense extreme events. Mitigation is critical for the survivability
of atoll nations. At the same time, ambitious adaptation actions are needed to prevent them from becoming
uninhabitable. Several atoll nations, like the Republic of the Marshall Islands, Kiribati, and the Maldives, are
protecting their coastal areas by planting mangroves, restoring wetlands, and improving water systems.15
However, higher temperature scenarios will limit the viability of these actions. Some may follow the lead
of Kiribati, which purchased land in Fiji as a way to proactively plan for managed retreat.16 Others, like the
Marshall Islands, may commit to remain and look for ways to build higher islands.17

Aerial photo of the Marshall Islands

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

11

Furthermore, the effects of climate change and associated

and climate change is accelerating the loss of natural assets

environmental degradation, if not better managed now, will

everywhere.23 The planet is approaching thresholds beyond

cripple opportunities for today’s youth and future generations.

which ecosystem recovery may not be possible.24 The extent

Acknowledging intergenerational inequalities is a central

of change is so great that nature could transition from being a

feature of the growing youth-led social movements around the

buffer against climate impacts to contributing to greenhouse

world. As inheritors of the effects of climate change, youth

gas emissions through permafrost collapse, ice-free Arctic

are also integral to generating political momentum, addressing

summers, large replacement of rainforests by savannah and

inequalities, and advancing solutions.

grasslands, and significant dieback of the boreal forests.25

In recognition that climate change is a common concern

Environmental degradation increases everyone’s vulnerability to

of humankind, the Paris Agreement calls for Parties to

climate change, but it most acutely affects indigenous peoples,

“respect, promote, and consider their respective obligations

rural communities, and others who depend directly on healthy

on human rights, the right to health, the rights of indigenous

ecosystems for their livelihoods.26 There is still time to work with

peoples, local communities, migrants, children, persons with

nature to build resilience and reduce climate risks at all scales,

disabilities, and people in vulnerable situations and the right

such as by restoring forests to regulate water flows and seques-

to development, as well as gender equality, empowerment of

ter carbon, and by creating green spaces in cities to help control

women, and intergenerational equity.”19 The Paris Agreement

temperatures. But the window of opportunity is closing quickly.

18

also emphasizes that adaptation action should be gendertransparent approaches. These principles are embedded in the

An Economic Imperative

approach to the planning adaptation actions described below.

Adapting now is in our economic self-interest: it is typically

responsive and follow country-driven, participatory, and

We do not accept a world where only some can adapt while
others cannot, and where decisions taken today undermine the
adaptive capacity of future generations. A recent report from
the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Extreme Poverty
and Human Rights said, “We risk a ‘climate apartheid’ scenario
where the wealthy pay to escape overheating, hunger, and
conflict while the rest of the world is left to suffer.”20 Preventing
this from occurring is a strong imperative for action.

An Environmental
Imperative
Natural ecosystems are humanity’s first line of defense
against floods, droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, and the
other mounting impacts of climate change. Beyond this, the
natural environment underpins economies and societies on
many levels, by providing food, fuel, and water; supporting
livelihoods; and removing carbon from the atmosphere to
mitigate climate change. A thriving natural environment is
fundamental to adaptation in every human enterprise.
Yet nature and the ecological foundations of our existence
are at a critical juncture. One in four species is facing extinction,21 about a quarter of all ice-free land is now subject to
degradation,22 ocean temperatures and acidity are rising,

12

Global Commission on Adaptation

much cheaper than recovery and rebuilding. The Commission
found that the overall rate of return on investments in
improved resilience is very high, with benefit-cost ratios
ranging from 2:1 to 10:1, and in some cases even higher. 27
This means that every $1 invested in adaptation could result
in $2–$10 in net economic benefits (Figure 1.2). Adaptation
actions, done right, are some of the most cost-effective
investments a country, city, or company can make.
The Commission also estimated that investing $1.8 trillion
globally in five areas from 2020 to 2030 could generate
$7.1 trillion in total net benefits (Figure 1.2). With sensitivity
analysis, the range of total net benefits is from just under $5
trillion to over $10 trillion, with benefit-cost ratios that are still
very high—from 2.5 to 5.5.28 Put another way, failing to secure
these economic benefits through climate adaptation investments would undermine trillions of dollars in potential growth
and prosperity. The level of adaptation investment required is
a very small share of projected total global investment: $1.8
trillion corresponds to less than 1% of projected total gross
fixed capital formation over those years.29
The five areas we considered are early warning systems,
climate-resilient infrastructure, improved dryland agriculture,
global mangrove protection, and investments in making
water resources more resilient. The average benefit-cost
ratio of these investments is almost 4—and investing in

FIGURE 1.2

Benefits and Costs of Illustrative Investments in Adaptation

Benefit-Cost Ratio
1:1

5:1

Net Benefits
10:1

Strengthening early warning systems

$0.1T

Making new infrastructure resilient

$4.0T

Improving dryland agriculture
crop production

$0.7T

Protecting mangroves

$1.0T

Making water resources
management more resilient

$1.4T

Total Net Benefits

$7.1T

Note: This graph is meant to illustrate the broad economic case for investment in a range of adaptation approaches. The net benefits illustrate the approximate global
net benefits to be gained by 2030 from an illustrative investment of $1.8 trillion in five areas (the total does not equal the sum of the rows due to rounding). Actual
returns depend on many factors, such as economic growth and demand, policy context, institutional capacities, and condition of assets. Also, these investments
neither address all that may be needed within sectors (for example, adaptation in the agricultural sector will consist of much more than dryland crop production) nor
include all sectors (as health, education, and industry sectors are not included). Due to data and methodological limitations, this graph does not imply full comparability of investments across sectors or countries.
Source: World Resources Institute.

areas with extremely high benefit-cost ratios like disaster risk

Adaptation actions can generate triple dividends. The

management systems is an obvious priority. However, it is

first dividend is avoided losses—that is, the ability of the

important to emphasize that any well-considered adaptation

investment to reduce future losses from climate hazards.

strategy should not rely on investment alone but also must
address policy and institutional weaknesses.

While avoiding losses is the most common motivation for
investing in resilience, taken alone it underestimates the

Also, investments in these five areas do not represent total

total benefits to society. Many adaptation actions generate

global investment requirements for adaptation, which will be

significant additional economic, social and environmental

higher (and would have correspondingly higher net benefits).

benefits, which accrue on an ongoing basis starting at the

They neither address all that may be needed within sectors

time of investment, and are not dependent on the future state

(for example, adaptation in the agricultural sector will consist

of the climate. In other words, they are both more certain and

of much more than dryland cereal agriculture), nor include all

more immediate. In Figure 1.2, all five areas have avoided

sectors (such as health, education, and industry sectors are

loss benefits, and the last three—improved dryland agriculture

not included). Rather, they are illustrative, based on available

crop production, mangrove protection, and water resources

data on economic returns—and Part 2 of this report has

management—have further economic, and social and

broader recommendations across seven systems that go

environmental benefits..

beyond these five areas.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

13

Avoided losses: The net benefits shown in Figure 1.2 are

recreation. Combined, the benefits of mangrove preservation

primarily due to avoided losses. For example, early warning

and restoration are up to 10 times the costs.32 Rotterdam

systems save lives and assets worth at least ten times their

enjoys social benefits, in the form of improved community

cost. Just 24 hours warning of a coming storm or heat wave

cohesion and quality of life, from green spaces that are

can cut the ensuing damage by 30 percent, and spending

designed to slow floodwaters.

$800 million on such systems in developing countries would
avoid $3–16 billion per year in losses. For its part, making
infrastructure more climate-resilient adds about 3 percent to
the upfront costs but has benefit-cost ratios of about 4:1. The
World Bank found that investing $1 trillion in the incremental
cost of making infrastructure more resilient in developing
countries would generate $4.2 trillion in benefits.
Economic benefits: Adaptation actions bring about economic benefits in three distinct ways. First, by reducing risk,
adaptation actions lower financial costs, increase security,
and make investments more appealing in regions, cities, or
industries where those investments would otherwise appear
too vulnerable. London’s Canary Wharf and other developments in East London would not have been possible without
the protection from the Thames Barrier. Second, by improving
the productivity of resources and people, adaptation actions
boost incomes. Investing $250–500 per hectare in better dryland farming practices could increase cereal yields by 70–140
percent, bringing net economic benefits of billions of dollars.
For example, flood-resistant varieties of rice in Orissa, India,
not only reduced losses during times of floods, but they also
boosted farm yields during normal years.30 And third, through
the challenge of finding solutions, driving innovation and creating new technologies and unforeseen market opportunities.
Drip irrigation technologies, first developed to address severe
water scarcity, are spreading because they are also better and
more efficient.
Social and environmental benefits—also called non-market
benefits—are the third category of benefits that result from
adaptation actions. These benefits are typically hard to
quantify but are no less important. For example, many naturebased actions that reduce flooding also increase biodiversity
and make the air and water cleaner.31 Restoring coastal
mangrove forests does not just protect coastal communities
from more dangerous storm surges, it also provides critical
habitat to sustain local fisheries. While mangrove forests
provide more than $80 billion per year in avoided losses
from coastal flooding—and protect 18 million people—they
also contribute almost as much ($40–50 billion per year) in
non-market benefits associated with fisheries, forestry, and

To date, the second and third dividends have been largely
overlooked. Better awareness of and evidence for all three
dividends will make the economic imperative case for adaptation ever stronger.

Barriers to Action
The case for adaptation is irrefutably strong, so why isn’t more
being done? There are several fundamental reasons, starting
with the fact that most decisions do not internalize climate
change. Decisions by a city official undertaking land-use planning, a utility deciding where (and whether) to build a new power
plant, or a farmer planning the next cropping season, should all
consider the many ways climate puts expected outcomes at
risk. Even when risks are understood, knowledge is often lacking
on appropriate solutions—what works, what does not, and the
costs and benefits of specific options to reduce vulnerability.
Human behavior does not favor taking the initiative when the
location and timing of hazards are uncertain, when benefits of
action may be years away, or when more immediate priorities
take precedence. Households, companies, and governments
all have short-term planning biases and succumb to what has
been called the tragedy of the horizon.33 Short-term planning
horizons lead to both underallocation and misallocation of
resources. Underallocation occurs because future losses
appear much lower than today’s costs (due to discounting);
misallocation occurs because successful short-term solutions
may be maladaptive in the future.
In addition to knowledge gaps and short-term biases, fragmented responsibilities, poor institutional cooperation, and
lack of resources hinder action. Governments lack incentives
and funding for agencies to grapple with knowledge gaps, collaborate across silos, and implement innovative solutions. In
most governments, few incentives exist to foster collaboration
across sectors—between ministries, between governments
and affected communities, between the public and private
sectors, and even between nations. While resources are
needed, so are policy responses that remove current incentives that undercut climate resilience. It is often cheaper to
anticipate and reduce risk than to protect against it, or compensate for losses.

14

Global Commission on Adaptation

CREDIT: M. YOUSUF TUSHAR/THE WORLDFISH CENTER

Maherunness and her husband growing chilies at her climate-smart house in Satkhira, Bangladesh.

Finally, a fundamental barrier to action is that the people most

All three are essential, as they are mutually supportive and

affected by climate change have little power. Power typically

interlinked. All three involve both the public and private

rests with those least affected, most insured, and most able to

sectors. All three must be undertaken in a way that respects,

protect themselves from the impacts of climate change. Major

promotes, and considers each country’s respective human

disparities in power also exist between countries. For the rich,

rights obligations, and is gender-responsive, participatory,

climate change can seem like a problem easily overcome, not

and transparent. And all three need to start now, since change

a lifelong sentence to poverty and suffering as it may mean

takes time, and time is not on our side.

for vulnerable and marginalized people. Those most at risk are
often have limited ability to shape key decisions that affect
them. Without their voice, the urgency of adaptation is muted.

We need a revolution in understanding to ensure that the
nature and magnitude of risks societies and economies

A Call to Action

face is fully understood—and effectively reflected in the

Addressing these broad and entrenched barriers requires an
ambitious response. Our Call to Action calls for revolutions in

•

A Revolution in Understanding

decisions that public and private actors make. Simple
information is often lacking: many developing-country
cities don’t even have up-to-date flood maps and digital

how we analyze, learn about, and understand

elevation models to properly assess flood risks. Moreover,

climate risks and solutions;

decision-makers may not fully understand climate impacts

• how we plan, make policy and investment decisions,

and trends—not only because they have never experienced

• how we finance required actions.

dengue fever in the United States),34 but also because there

and implement solutions; and

those impacts (such as the emergence of new diseases like

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

15

BOX 2

Pricing Risk: Revealing the True Cost of Climate Impacts
Pricing risk can be a catalyst for driving adaptation actions. The true costs from the impacts of climate change
should be included in all economic analysis and decision making. Pricing risk can change behaviors through
policy incentives as well as shape better investments—for example, when water is priced to reflect availability,
or when rising insurance premiums deflect investments in flood-prone lowlands.
Putting an explicit price on risk in practice, however, is difficult. There is no single metric, like a price on carbon
for climate mitigation, that applies to all sectors and countries. Many climate risks are local, so perils and
prices will differ by location. So far, the skills, approaches, and tools most developed for pricing risk are those
used by and for the insurance and catastrophe risk transfer markets. We urgently need better global data on
hazards and exposures, calculations of probabilities, and knowledge of local conditions and vulnerabilities
in order to successfully price risk. Given the limited depth and breadth of current markets, governments will
have to lead in the creation of new risk management products. It will also be necessary for public and private
actors, together, to find ways to pool risks across countries, given that the most vulnerable countries are also
typically those least able to bear the costs of high-priced risk.

are new impacts that we are just becoming aware of (such

economic analysis, pricing risks helps make more explicit the

as climate change reducing the nutritional quality of major

impacts of climate change in investment and policy decisions.

cereal crops).35

Momentum is building in both the private and public sectors to

A key element of this revolution is the need to make risk

develop tools to explicitly price risk (see Box 2).

visible. We need to more precisely characterize who and what

Equally important is to understand what works and what

is at risk, and why. Making risk visible starts with modeling

options to prioritize. This is done by supporting experien-

how future climate hazards such as sea-level rise and heat

tial learning, sharing solutions, stimulating innovations in

waves lead to adverse outcomes, like the loss of coastal

science and technology, and replicating promising business

land and increased sickness or death. Making risk visible

models and financial services. All forms of knowledge are

helps integrate climate impacts into all planning decisions.

important, recognizing that valuable local knowledge rests

For example, a new highway bridge, 3 meters higher than the

with communities and indigenous populations. Platforms that

existing one, would have a larger upfront cost, but it would be

connect researchers and practitioners across communities

less likely to be destroyed in the event of higher flood waters.

and countries are critical. For example, the LDC University

In this case, factoring in climate risks is likely to steer the

Consortium on Climate Change is an initiative that seeks to

decision to the better option.

build knowledge and practice networks across some of the

Policymakers have various tools to make risk visible, ranging

most vulnerable countries in the world.36

from engineering design standards to approaches that implicitly

It is important to consider all forms of knowledge, including

or explicitly price risk. Design standards, by tightening flood

that of local communities and indigenous populations. For

level and wind stress requirements, reflect social preferences

example, the Hani people in China’s Ailao Mountain region

to better manage climate stresses. Policy incentives can steer

have bred drought-resistant crop varieties and developed

decisions in directions that help reduce risk—for example when

unique irrigation technologies to successfully cope with water

compensation funds are offered to help households move out

shortfalls in their rice terrace agriculture system.37 Combining

of floodplains. Land-use planning and zoning regulations make

traditional knowledge with modern scientific and technological

risk visible by explicitly directing development toward areas

tools can pay extra dividends, as when Inuit hunters combine

less vulnerable to flooding. Finally, in both financial markets and

their knowledge of wildlife and sea ice with weather station
and GPS data to adapt to changing conditions.38

16

Global Commission on Adaptation

FIGURE 1.3

Basic Elements of Climate Change Adaptation

Reduce (and Prevent)

Prepare (and Respond)

Restore (and Recover)

Agriculture research and
development

Early warning systems

Insurance and risk finance
instruments

Climate-proofing buildings and
infrastructure
Land-use planning
Nature-based solutions to protect
people and assets

Forecast-based action
(contingency planning)
Strengthen first responders
Temporary evacuation

Social safety nets
Recovery services, including
health and education
Build back better

Permanent relocation (migration)
Source: Authors, drawing on disaster risk management frameworks developed by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, World Bank, and others.

The Commission strongly supports the full range of actions

development to budget formulation and investment decisions.

required by the revolution in understanding, from investments

For countries, there are important United Nations Framework

in basic and applied R&D, on the one hand, to peer-to-peer

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) processes that

learning about solutions, on the other. The direct investment

focus on climate change, such as nationally determined

costs are relatively low, and the benefits of making knowledge

contributions (NDCs) and national adaptation plans (NAPs).

systems more responsive to the needs of end users are high.

These processes are important to help countries identify

Germany’s Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan and Climate

priority climate actions and mainstream these actions into

Preparedness Portal are good examples of national action

economic and sector development plans and budgets. Finally,

that strengthens local capacity and provides climate services

it means using explicit criteria, such as unmet needs, potential

in a demand-responsive way.

for impact, and benefit-cost ratios for prioritizing interventions.

A Revolution in Planning

Mainstreaming is closely tied to the first revolution in

We need a revolution in planning to improve how we make

upstream macroeconomic analysis and extends through risk

policy and investment decisions, and implement solutions.

screening, environmental and social impact assessments,

The climate challenge is not only urgent—it is also pervasive

permitting, and project design. It guides how governments

across virtually all sectors of the economy. The Commission

assess policies, institutions, and investments to ensure that

recommends the following four changes in how decisions are

they are building resilience not only at the level of individual

made for cities, infrastructure, agriculture, health, education,

projects but system-wide. Mainstreaming in the private sector

water, and protecting the natural environment to make those

is similar. Companies worldwide are embarking on the same

decisions climate-informed.

cycle of improving their planning related to climate risks to

understanding. Mainstreaming in the public sector begins with

The required change starts by mainstreaming climate risk.39
This means looking across the full spectrum of potential
solutions—that is, from reducing exposure and vulnerability
to preparing for and recovering from climate impacts
(Figure 1.3). It also means integrating climate risk into all
standard government and corporate processes, from strategy

their operations and assets. The private sector is well aware
of climate risks at one level—the World Economic Forum’s
Global Risks Perception Survey rates extreme weather as
the most severe threat over a 10-year horizon 40—but this
awareness has not yet led to more detailed planning or action.
Only 15 percent of roughly 2,500 companies cite physical
risks in their disclosure documents to the Climate Disclosure

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

17

CASE STU DY 1

Designing Amid Uncertainty: The Thames Barrier
The Thames Barrier is an iconic example of building robustness and flexibility in the face of uncertainty.
By holding back storm surges and high tides, it helps protect 1.3 million people, £275bn in property and
infrastructure, and places of high historical and cultural value from flooding. When it was opened in 1982,
the Thames Barrier had a design life until 2030. However, studies show that based on current sea-level rise
projections and the ability to raise embankments, it can now protect London until 2070. The Thames Estuary
2100 Plan sets out a long-term approach to managing this change and what should be done for different
rates of sea-level rise and social change to 2100 and beyond. The plan accommodates multiple objectives,
including flood protection, river access, species habitat, and quality of life.

The Thames Barrier works to hold back storm surges and high tides protecting 1.3 millon people.

Project,41 and reporting on norms developed by the Task Force

be relocated. Not everything is “no regrets.” Sometimes tough

on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) remains

decisions will need to be made today that effectively have to

low. Mainstreaming in both the public and private sectors

choose between planning for a 1.5°C versus a 4°C world.

requires more awareness, capacity, and accepted planning
methodologies.

Third, we must strengthen the role of vulnerable groups
and local actors in planning processes that affect their

Second, we must improve how we make decisions in the

own lives. Planning and decision-making should be devolved

face of uncertainty. New methods in decision science allow

as closely as possible to where people are most affected.

us to identify choices that are robust across a range of future

Unfortunately, in most countries, participatory planning with

outcomes—choices that guide our immediate decisions and

local populations is uncommon, even though it helps develop

allow flexibility as the future unfolds. A well-known example

shared goals, coordinate action, and build on local knowledge.

of adaptive decision-making in practice is the Thames Barrier

Local communities—whether they are slum dwellers in Lagos,

(see Case Study 1). Taking a longer-term perspective allows

coffee farmers in Guatemala, or coastal communities in

planners to reduce the risk of maladaptation. At some point,

Australia—need adequate capacity and resources to help

transformational actions representing a complete change in

make and implement decisions that affect them. Community-

direction may be needed. Switching to drought-resilient crops

driven development (CDD) approaches adopted by many

may be of no use if the site is not fit for farming anymore.

governments and supported by the World Bank and other

More resilient infrastructure may be wasted if a city needs to

development finance institutions provide a rich set of lessons.

18

Global Commission on Adaptation

BOX 3

Recognizing the Rights of Indigenous Peoples
Climate change threatens the land, livelihoods, and cultures of indigenous peoples. Climate impacts are often
exacerbated by legal and institutional barriers and historic marginalization. As a result, adaptation actions
should be designed in ways that reinforce and support increased indigenous rights, agency, and governance
systems.42 Examples include water management and irrigation solutions that uphold water and land rights;
prioritizing local knowledge and technologies that preserve culture and indigenous knowledge systems; and
planning processes that preserve their right to self-determination, including rights to free, prior, and informed
consent.43, 44,45

Particularly important in this regard are indigenous peoples,

associated with increases in vector-borne diseases, and

who are often on the front lines of climate impacts and yet

impacts on water quality, sanitation, hygiene, and food

face constraints in responding due to political and social

security. Working across sectors requires political will at the

marginalization (see Box 3).

highest levels, as well as demands for effective results from

In many instances, the locus of adaptation action is not

civil society.46

local but at subnational, national, or even regional scales. An

Climate change also requires action across national bound-

agriculture ministry setting farm policies, a water ministry

aries. Climate risks—both slow-onset and more extreme

investing in watershed development, or a public works

events—are already displacing people both within countries

department strengthening a national grid—all go beyond local

and across borders, and require planned relocation efforts.

implementation. The Rio Declaration and the Paris Agreement

Other transboundary climate issues relate to natural resource

cite the importance of access to information and public

use, such as watersheds, and trade. Institutional models

participation, and the Paris Agreement further emphasizes

exist to improve planning, reduce tensions, learn from others,

that adaptation action should be gender-responsive and follow

and use science and technology in finding solutions. A few

country-driven, participatory, and transparent approaches.

examples are (a) the West Africa Coastal Areas Management

Creating channels to share fiduciary responsibility of projects

Program (WACA), a World Bank-financed multicountry

can also improve project implementation by enhancing

program that addresses problems with cross-border climate

transparency and accountability. The case of Bangladesh

impacts; (b) the Seeds without Borders initiative, which

illustrates these lessons—and shows its dramatic success

supports how neighboring countries improve agricultural

in saving lives through improved early warning systems,

productivity and resilience in the face of increasing natural

civic awareness, cyclone shelters, reinforced buildings, and

disasters;47 and (c) the North-East Asia Clean Air Partnership

recovery services (Figure 1.4).

(NEACAP), set up in 2018 by China, North and South Korea,

Lastly, governments need to promote ways to work
better across boundaries, whether these be sectoral or
jurisdictional. Climate risks are cross-cutting, and adaptation

Japan, Mongolia, and Russia to promote science-based, policy
cooperation to protect the environment and human health.

solutions must be as well. For example, improved watershed

The Revolution in Finance

management requires collaboration from agriculture,

The economic case for resilience is strong, and the need

infrastructure, and social development actors. Resilient cities

for resources is clear. Yet, money is not flowing at the scale

require municipalities, water utilities, and energy companies

needed. Climate risk has been and continues to be ignored in

to work together. Addressing climate-induced health risks

most investment decisions. Therefore, to better finance the

also requires cross-sectoral planning. In Bhutan, the Health

required adaptation actions, a revolution in finance is needed

National Adaptation Plan (H-NAP) identifies opportunities to

to mobilize funding into more climate-resilient and cost-

prepare for and respond to health risks of climate change

effective solutions. The Commission believes this revolution
consists of four main parts:

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

19

FIGURE 1.4

Key Policy Interventions in Bangladesh Contributed to Reduced Deaths from Climate Disasters
BANGLADESH IS A STRIKING EXAMPLE OF THE POWER OF EFFECTIVE ADAPTATION:

Starting with early warning systems, scaled-up disaster response has included cyclone shelters,
building civic awareness, strengthening buildings, and improving post-disaster recovery
1970

MAJOR CYCLONE S IN BANG L ADE SH

Cyclone Bhola
300,000 deaths

1991

April cyclone
138,000 deaths
2007

1970

1980
1972
Formation of
Ministry of
Disaster
Management
& Relief

Source: Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC).48

1990
1993
Creation of disaster
management councils
and committees
from the national
to the local level

2000

1997
Establishment
of the Standing
Orders on
Disasters (SOD)

2019

Cyclone Sidr

Cyclone Fani

3,363 deaths

5 deaths

2010

2003–9
Comprehensive
Disaster
Management
Program

2012
Adoption of
Disaster
Management
Act

I N STI TU TIONAL RE SP ONSE S

First, as part of a broader transition toward sustainable

mechanisms. In parallel, governments must take many

finance, adaptation and climate resilience need to be

other kinds of actions such as introducing policy incentives

built into all investment and financing decisions from the

to improve planning and land use; strengthening climate

beginning. The world will require trillions of dollars in annual

services; building public sector capacity; and strengthening the

infrastructure investment over the coming decades. If done

functioning of the financial sector itself to better disclose risk,

right, these investments will lead to the kind of growth and

manage risk, and expand into new risk-pooling markets.

development that is systemically resilient. Resilience needs
to be built into investment and financing decisions from the
beginning, and not considered as a climate finance add-on
after other financing decisions have been made.

Third, the private sector has a critical role to play, not only
on its own account but to complement the public sector.
Firms in agriculture, industry, and commerce can make their
own operations and supply chains more resilient and profit-

Second, the public sector needs to recognize its role as an

able by investing in adaptation.49 Data and finance companies

essential provider and enabler of finance for adaptation

can provide climate adaptation services to respond to market

actions for the foreseeable future. While some investments

needs and can develop and scale up insurance products

in resilience will generate bankable financial cash flows,

that will provide contingent finance and create incentives for

many will not. Greater public resources will be required,

greater resilience. Members of the private sector can step up

whether for resilient economic systems such as agriculture

as active advocates to help shape and amplify the pressure

and infrastructure, or social safety nets and risk-pooling

for change.

20

Global Commission on Adaptation

More ambitious actions by the private sector will require a

relative to the need and urgency of the challenge. Ambitious

higher level of collaboration between the public and private

replenishments of the Green Climate Fund, the International

sectors than seen today. Based on improved data and

Development Association, and regional development funds,

physical risk assessments, the two sectors should work

such as the African Development Fund, will be essential to

on better pricing of risk and blended financing models that

finance adaptation on a larger scale. Donors should push to

share costs and benefits (such as in infrastructure, supply

ensure increased flows of adaptation finance and an improved

chains, agriculture, and resilient cities). As risk becomes better

balance between adaptation and mitigation finance, similar to

understood and priced, the private sector can design risk

recent commitments by the World Bank.50

finance instruments in an increasing number of countries—
other services for vulnerable groups. The Africa Disaster Risks

The Way Forward

Financing (ADRiFi) program is one strong example of public

It is clear: Scaling up adaptation is a human, environmental,

while governments continue to finance social safety nets and

and private risk-pooling (see Case Study 2). Moreover, publicprivate models for financing public infrastructure can create
private value such as land value capture and reduced supply
chain risks.

and economic imperative. Our three revolutions—designed to
address these imperatives—all put people first. Our priorities
are to protect livelihoods, homes, jobs, and access to infrastructure services for the world’s population.
The three revolutions provide the elements of how to adapt.

CASE STU DY 2

Part II of this report drills down into greater detail about how
these revolutions can be implemented in seven different

Risk Pooling in Africa

economic systems: food, the natural environment, water,

The Africa Disaster Risks Financing (ADRiFi)
program enables African countries to have access
to market-based solutions for transferring some
of their climate risks and to benefit from a payout
in the event of a disaster. The program supports
early stage financing that could be the impetus
that gets countries to finance insurance premiums
from their own budgets. This support complements the capacity-building support that Africa
Risk Capacity (ARC) Insurance provides to African
countries to help them better understand their
disaster risk layers and establish the appropriate
financing mechanisms for each layer of risk. These
will prepare African countries to best address
climate-disaster events when they occur.

cities, infrastructure, disaster risk management, and finance.
While each system is unique, all have common needs to
improve their understanding, planning, and financing of
adaptation actions. Furthermore, the chapters in Part II show
that none of these economic systems operate in isolation. All
are interconnected, and recognizing those interconnections
is fundamental to achieving systemic resilience, growth,
and prosperity.
All of this requires political leadership. Communities, activists,
and business people can push, but the massive public goods
that flow from adaptation actions ultimately rely on governments to create incentives and facilitate investments. This
Commission is dedicated to strengthening political leadership
on adaptation and proposes to do so through a bold set of
Action Tracks as detailed in Part III. Each Action Track will
build on sector-specific goals to contribute to the larger revolu-

Fourth, there is a critical need for higher levels of international financial support for adaptation in developing
countries. Concessional climate finance (including grants)
is particularly important, as many countries will be unable
to borrow at market rates to invest in climate resilience.
While international flows of adaptation finance to developing countries have steadily increased, they remain modest

tions required.
Human beings have adapted to climate variability for thousands
of years. What is different now is the unprecedented magnitude
and pace of change, the level of uncertainty, the size of vulnerable
populations, the scale of assets at risk, and the rapidly declining
quality of ecosystem health. All of these factors are changing,
and fast. Adapting will require human resourcefulness,
innovation, and courage at a global scale rarely seen.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

21

PART II

Accelerating
Adaptation in
Key Systems

CHAPTER 2: FOOD SECURITY AND
LIVELIHOODS OF SMALL-SCALE
PRODUCERS
The Challenge: Growing
Threats to Agriculture
Climate change stresses the global food system.51 Climate
change is already making food insecurity worse; 52 it has
reduced the global yield growth of wheat and maize53 as well
as the yields of many other crops in Africa and elsewhere.54
Developing countries are experiencing 20 percent more

Absent adaptation, researchers now estimate that climate
change will depress growth in global yields by 5–30 percent by
2050.62 Although higher carbon dioxide concentrations could
benefit plant growth and offset some of these effects, such
carbon dioxide fertilization effects are uncertain and could be
offset by negative effects from increased ground-level ozone
and by reductions in the nutritional quality of many crops
(which would also make malnutrition worse).63

extreme heat than in the late 1990s.55 And the number of

Increased variability and extremes in temperature and rainfall

undernourished or food-insecure people grew by between

will lead to production shocks that will worsen food insecurity.

37 million and 122 million to more than 800 million between

Even in years of average rainfall, rain is likely to fall in more

2014 and 2017, partly because of climate shocks.

concentrated bursts, increasing periods of inadequate soil

56

57

Additional climate change will exacerbate great challenges
already faced by the global food system. These challenges
include a likely 50 percent increase in global demand for
food between 2010 and 2050 and even larger increases in
the world’s most food-insecure regions—about a threefold
increase in sub-Saharan Africa and almost twofold in South
Asia.58 Demand for meat, dairy, and fish—which people in
developing countries today typically consume at only one-third
or less the rate of those in developed countries—is on track to
grow by 70 percent or more.59
Agriculture also contributes to the climate challenge.
Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and associated
land use change, now about 25 percent of global emissions,
are likely to grow to 70 percent of allowable emissions from all
human sources by 2050 and must be greatly reduced to meet
climate targets.60

moisture. Extreme droughts and floods, including more
intense monsoons and El Niño events that cause both
droughts and floods, will also become more common,64
and the areas exposed to serious droughts and floods will
increase by 15 percent to 44 percent by 2050.65 With 4°C of
warming, crop seasons in most of sub-Saharan Africa could
shrink by 20 percent or more.66 Droughts particularly threaten
livestock producers, who must sell off livestock when prices
are low. These effects together could impair the growth and
development of children.67
Climate change is expected to increase food prices, reduce
food availability, and reduce the incomes and food production
of smallholder farmers. Although some causes of higher
prices can benefit some farmers, both consumers and
farmers lose when climate or other challenges increase
prices by harming production. Particularly hurt will be people
living in poverty and the food-insecure, who already spend

Climate change has adverse physiological effects on crops and
livestock. Higher temperatures reduce water available for crops
by drying out air and soils, while they increase pest and disease
pressures, directly stress livestock, reduce labor productivity, and
increase parasites and diseases for both livestock and crops.61

more than half of their incomes on food,68 and who include
large numbers of landless rural people and smallholder
farmers, who are net purchasers of food.69 Climate change
is likely to raise food prices by 20 percent70 for billions of
low-income people. With high global economic growth, the

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

23

FIGURE 2.1

Areas of High Agricultural Risk for Different Climate Hazards in Vulnerable Areas

CLIMATE HAZARDS
High climate variability
Growing season reductions
High temperatures during
growing season
Combination of two or
more climate hazards

Source: Prepared by Philip Thornton, CCAFS, for the Global Commission on Adaptation.71

absolute number of food-insecure people may still decline,
but according to modeling done for the Commission by
International Food Policy Institute (IFPRI), higher average food
prices alone, and ignoring the effects of variability, may make
50 million more people food-insecure in a warmer world.72

The Way Forward:
Support Small-Scale
Food Producers

The physical harm to food production and the conse-

Adapting to climate change while also achieving healthy food

quences for people will be greatest in the most food-insecure

for all, mitigating climate change, protecting ecosystems,

regions, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia

and achieving the SDGs will require systemic changes to the

(Figure 2.1), where tens of millions of hectares of agricultural

global food system and global land use. Multiple publications

lands will become substantially drier. Populations in these

have now cited the need for healthier, less resource-intensive

regions already experience high rates of undernutrition (seen,

diets and reducing food loss and waste, increasing the output

for example, as child stunting), have limited social insurance,

per hectare of cropland and pasture, linking those gains to

receive less government support than farmers in developed

preservation and restoration of forests and their carbon,

countries, and are most likely to experience direct health

addressing widespread micronutrient deficiencies, promoting

threats from extreme temperatures.

innovation throughout the food system, more balanced food

73

74

distribution, and the important underlying role of greater equity
in the control over land and other resources.75
Our recommendations here focus on the particular challenges
climate change poses to the livelihoods of small-scale food
producers, whom climate change will adversely affect both as
consumers and producers. Globally, around 500 million farms
are two hectares or smaller,76 and two-thirds of adults working
in poverty make a living in part through agriculture.77 People
in rural areas also have higher rates of food insecurity and
extreme poverty.78

24

Global Commission on Adaptation

Smallholder farmers face many challenges even without

benefit from modern molecular techniques.86 Farmer-driven

climate change, and fully addressing them requires

research, including participatory plant-breeding and last-mile

improvements to education, health, gender-equity more

adoption of technologies from researchers to the farm level,

broadly, and the political economy of food systems. Our

also have produced many successes.

recommendations focus on a high-priority subset of potential
interventions for agricultural improvement that can both
address existing agronomic and livelihood challenges and
help smallholder farmers adapt to a changing climate. We
recommend some long-standing interventions based on firm
evidence that similar interventions have achieved positive
outcomes, while recommendations for newer ideas are
based on their potential and a compelling rationale. We also
considered environmental sustainability, the ability to manage
trade-offs where they exist, evidence that risks are acceptable,
and likely co-benefits for mitigation or society (Table 2.1). The
following categories of action, and specific steps, are vital:

Agriculture agencies to improve the distribution of seeds,
the protection of genetic crop diversity, and the rate of
development of new crop varieties. Crop modeling studies
suggest that existing crop varieties could withstand much of
the direct heat effects (but less of the precipitation effects) of
2°C of warming if they were adapted to become locally available and if farmers adopted them.87 Yet in much of the world,
including Africa and India, it takes far longer for new crop
varieties to become available than in developed countries. It is
thus important to more rapidly develop improved crop varieties for farmers, reduce barriers to the sale of improved seeds,
and increase market access, particularly in Africa.88

1) Improve smallholder productivity

Agriculture agencies and private companies to exploit

The world’s farmers could achieve greater crop and livestock

digital technology, better weather information, and farmer-

yields with improved management,79 and some interventions
can disproportionately help respond to climate change (even
in the difficult context of dryland agriculture, interventions are
likely to yield large economic returns).80

to-farmer education to improve technical assistance. Good
agricultural extension is critical to realizing the benefits of
R&D.89 The use of digital communication and farmer-to-farmer
education can both amplify traditional extension and provide
critical weather information for farmers to make planting and

Governments, development agencies, and the private sector to

harvesting decisions.90 Data and analytics can also be used

boost funding for demand-driven research and development.

to improve disease surveillance and the development of early

R&D is crucial to address climate stresses on crops from

warning systems. Digital soil maps are critical for farmers to

increasing heat, drought, and disease. For example, extreme

understand their local soil health and respond accordingly.

heat has highly adverse effects on the yields of staples such
as maize, wheat, and rice,81 as well as on important cash
crops such as arabica coffee and cocoa. Research is needed
not just to test more heat-tolerant varieties but also to find
physiological and genetic drivers. In Zimbabwe, farmers
using drought-tolerant maize were able to harvest up to 600
kilograms more maize per hectare than farmers using conventional maize.82 Investments in basic and applied research
in both national and internationally oriented research agencies as well as extension services have high rates of return,
with 75 percent of studies finding at least a 22 percent rate
of return and 25 percent finding at least a 62 percent rate of
return in one recent meta-analysis.83 Another study of research
by the CGIAR system (formerly called the Consultative Group
on International Agricultural Research) found benefit-cost
ratios ranging from 2:1 to 17:1.84 Consistent funding streams
for long-term projects, particularly on less-researched orphan
crops, such as sorghum, cassava, and pulses, are important

In Zimbabwe, farmers
using drought-tolerant
maize were able to
harvest up to 600
kilograms more
maize per hectare
than farmers using
conventional maize.

for food security in low-income regions,85 and those crops can

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

25

2) Help small-scale producers
manage risks from increased
variability and climate shocks

3) Address the challenges of the
most climate-affected and vulnerable

A substantial literature shows that small-scale producers

and resources for women farmers. Women make up more

manage risk by underinvesting in agricultural production.91
This strategy may increase incomes on average, but it means
that many will be forced to sell assets during times of hardship and then never recover from severe climate shocks.92 As
a result, finding ways to reduce risk and avoid the need to sell
off productive assets is highly valuable.93

Governments and development agencies to improve rights
than 40 percent of the agricultural workforce and tend to have
substantially less access to land rights, fertilizers, education, technical assistance, weather information, and water.99
Women are likely to play even larger roles going forward,
because farms are getting smaller, pushing more men to
move to cities for jobs and leaving women to run farms.100
Climate change will likely accelerate this trend.101 Tenure

Governments, development agencies, and private compa-

reforms that provide equal property rights for women and tar-

nies to help smallholders diversify their incomes. Diverse

geting financing and extension services at women would help

income streams help smallholder farmers boost food security

advance gender justice. It would also likely result in promising

and increase investment in productive management. One

yield improvements.102 For example, the Food and Agriculture

strategy can be production diversity. Studies have found that

Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimates that if

more diversified farms in Africa, which are correlated with

women had the same access to productive resources as men,

somewhat larger size and greater market access, have greater

they could increase yields on their farms on average by 20–30

food security. Another is increasing off-farm income by provid-

percent and reduce the number of hungry people in the world

ing more off-farm job opportunities.

by 12–17 percent.103

94

Governments to create and strengthen social security systems.

Governments to develop transition funds to help those

Basic social security systems improve food security and help

farmers most affected by climate change. Some farmers

farmers avoid poverty traps that lead to long-term reductions

will face such large stresses that they will need to transition

in productivity and income.95 In developing countries, only a

to alternative farming systems, such as alternative crops, or

small percentage of the population is covered by social security

even leave farming altogether. Direct government financial

systems sufficient to guarantee food security.96

support, supportive R&D, and assistance in establishing new
marketing networks can play important roles in successful

Governments and the private sector to explore
weather-based agricultural insurance for smallholders. Crop
insurance based on indices of bad weather that requires no
direct information from the farm can lower administrative
costs. Pilot efforts have had both successes and failures,

transitions.104 Because the precise farms that will need these
funds are uncertain but are likely to grow in number over time,
farmer transition funds should be based on transparent and
equitable criteria.

which are linked to administrative costs and to the fairness

Governments to assist pastoralists. Many pastoralists in

and honesty of reporting and payments when a policy is

Africa are already under great stress because of migration

triggered. With continued experimentation to lower administra-

barriers, encroachment by crop farmers, often-discrimina-

tive costs and to ensure that farmers are reimbursed for real

tory governance, and high population growth.105 Now they

losses, this approach may help stabilize incomes.

are facing more frequent and severe droughts and the other

97

Private and public financial institutions to improve access
to finance. Private investments provide the majority of funds
used for agricultural improvements,98 yet limited access
to finance poses major barriers for small-scale producers.
Setting lending targets and developing specific models for
private finance that works for small-scale producers and cooperatives, including microfinance, will be necessary to mobilize
adequate finance for adaptation.

26

Global Commission on Adaptation

impacts of climate change. About 268 million pastoralists
already have high rates of food insecurity, according to FAO,
and climate stresses contribute to damaging social conflict.
It will be critical to protect pastoralists’ rights to pasture, to
assist in altering the destocking and restocking process as
rainfall varies, and to find alternative income sources.106

4) Achieve policy coherence by
making agriculture interventions
climate-smart
Policies should support all the multiple goals of the food
system. Climate-smart intervention means not a specific set
of measures but increased focus on yield and income stability
rather than on yield alone. It also means greater focus on
efficiency in the use of inputs, such as water and fertilizer,
and more focus on long-term sustainability by properly caring
for soil and water resources. Such a climate-smart approach
requires packages of measures tailored to local conditions,
rather than single steps, extending from the farm to the overall
value chain.

Governments to support synergies and avoid tensions
between adaptation and mitigation. The same agricultural
systems that must adapt to climate change and produce more
food must also reduce emissions. There are many opportunities to do both, such as increasing the output of crops, meat,
or milk per hectare; per liter of water; per kilogram of fertilizer;
and per animal unit. More gains would come from switching to
foods that offer more protein per unit of feed and per hectare
while also generating far fewer emissions; from reducing
demand for animal products by the world’s affluent while also
promoting alternative proteins; from reducing food loss and
waste; and from avoiding competing demands for agricultural
land. In addition, successfully adapting to climate change
reduces the need to convert more forest to fields, which
releases carbon. At the same time, tensions between mitiga-

Governments to redirect public support to facilitate cli-

tion and adaptation should be avoided to the extent possible

mate-smart decision-making. The Organisation for Economic

and will require developing and following integrated land use

Co-operation and Development (OECD) has estimated that

plans. Examples include avoiding agricultural production in

governments provided $568 billion per year for agriculture

wetlands and not building or improving roads in locations that

in 2014–16, but few of those dollars were directed at mea-

will encourage the clearing of forests.

sures—such as limiting excessive use of water and fertilizer
or the wrong mix of fertilizer107—that help farmers adapt to
climate change.108 In some cases, these subsidies have been
counterproductive, encouraging farmers to produce foods in
locations or ways that are increasing environmental harm.
Public finance and incentives for farmers thus need to be
better aligned with long-term sustainable, climate-mitigating,
and climate-resilient production.

Governments to adopt measures to conserve land and
water resources at the landscape scale, including agroecological approaches. Climate change is likely to increase soil
erosion and losses of soil carbon, among other threats to soil
quality.109 These threats can potentially be addressed with
agroecological approaches, such as enhanced use of agroforestry, increased retention of crop residues, and larger numbers
and types of crops used in rotations, particularly more use
of legumes. Various forms of integrated pest management
will also be necessary to address the likely increase in pest
pressures from a warming world. Improving the evidence-base
for the effectiveness of adopting different agroecological
approaches are a necessary step.110

Climate-smart interventions include agroecological approaches that work to conserve land and water resources at the landscape scale.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

27

TABLE 2.1

Recommendations Categorized for Different Actions, Climate Risks Addressed, Type and
Potential Breadth of Impact, and Justification

Note: Evaluations are based on knowledge of the literature and experience, derived from a variety of potential recommendations originally identified by
Commission members and the evaluation criteria indicated in the text.

Specific
interventions

Primary climate
risks addressed

Action domain

Primary impact

Breadth of impact

Justification & strength
of evidence

1) I M P R OV E D S M A L L H O L D E R P R O D U CT I V I T Y
Increase research
& development
spending

Research & development

Extension including
digital farmer
services, weather
& seasonal
forecasts, and
farmer-to-farmer

Knowledge dissemination

More rapid variety &
breed development
and faster, better
distribution to
smallholders

+ Heat & water stress
+ Volatility & stress
+ Climate shocks
Shifting suitability

Production, income

+ Heat & water stress
+ Volatility & stress
+ Climate shocks
Shifting suitability

Production,
resilience

Applicable to all
farming

Strong evidence from previous
experience
HIGH CONFIDENCE

Broad applicability

Strong evidence for extension;
promising examples of digital
services and farmer-to-farmer
education
HIGH CONFIDENCE

Research & development
Policy & markets

+ Heat & water stress
+ Volatility & stress
Shifting suitability

Production,
resilience

High adoption
potential, if speed can
be increased & barriers
overcome

Strong evidence around
performance of improved seeds /
breeds and of potential of
alternative varieties to address
changing weather patterns
HIGH CONFIDENCE

2) H E L P FA R M E R S M A N A G E I N C R E A S E D VA R I A B I L I T Y A N D C L I M AT E S H O C K S
Income
diversification
including farm
diversification,
increased market
access, and
increased off-farm
diversification

Research & development
Policy & markets
Finance
Knowledge dissemination

Stronger social
security systems

Policy & markets

+ Heat & water stress
+ Volatility & stress
+ Climate shocks
Shifting suitability

Production,
livelihoods,
mitigation
co-benefits

Broad: farm production
diversity where
feasible, off-farm
activities in other
places

Strong evidence that income
diversification increases food
security for smallholder farmers

+ Climate shocks

Livelihoods

Target vulnerable
populations

Strong evidence for effects on
food insecurity; mixed evidence
for preserving production systems

HIGH CONFIDENCE

HIGH CONFIDENCE
Bundled crop and/or
livestock insurance

28

Research & development
Policy & markets
Finance
Knowledge dissemination

Global Commission on Adaptation

+ Volatility & stress
+ Climate shocks

Livelihoods,
production

Target vulnerable
populations

Strong rationale; technical
challenges remain; evidence
mixed
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Recommendations Categorized for Different Actions, Climate Risks Addressed, Type and
Potential Breadth of Impact, and Justification (continued)

TABLE 2.1

Note: Evaluations are based on knowledge of the literature and experience, derived from a variety of potential recommendations originally identified by
Commission members and the evaluation criteria indicated in the text.

Specific
interventions

Action domain

Primary climate
risks addressed

Primary impact

Justification & strength
of evidence

Breadth of impact

3) A D D R E S S T H E C H A L L E N G E S O F T H E M O S T A F F E CT E D A N D M O S T V U L N E R A B L E FA R M E R S
Improve the rights
and resource
access of women
farmers

Research & development
Policy & markets
Knowledge dissemination

+ Heat & water stress
+ Volatility & stress
+ Climate shocks
Shifting suitability

Livelihoods, equity,
nutrition

Broad applicability

Strong rationale; strong evidence
of benefits of increasing access;
some evidence of positive
nutritional outcomes
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Help pastoralists
adapt via flexible
combinations
of policies and
practices

Research & development
Policy & markets
Finance
Knowledge dissemination

Implement
transition funds

Research & development
Finance

+ Heat & water stress
+ Volatility & stress
+ Climate shocks
Shifting suitability

Shifting suitability

Livelihoods,
political
empowerment,
nutrition, conflict
resolution

Target pastoralist
populations

Livelihoods

Highly targeted
vulnerable populations

Strong rationale, including links
between CC and conflict; mixed
evidence on effectiveness of
interventions
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Strong rationale based on equity
and likely need; some positive
examples of transition support
NEW CONCEPT

4) A C H I E V E P O L I C Y C O H E R E N C E A M O N G F O O D S YS T E M G OA L S
Redirect public
support to promote
& facilitate climate
smart agriculture

Policy & markets
Finance

Support synergies
and minimize
trade-offs between
adaptation &
mitigation

Research & development
Policy & markets
Finance
Knowledge dissemination

Conserve land &
water resources
at the landscape
scale via improved
agronomic practices
and eco-agricultural
approaches

Research & development
Policy & markets
Finance
Knowledge dissemination

+ Heat & water stress
+ Volatility & stress
+ Climate shocks
Shifting suitability

Productivity,
livelihoods, equity,
resilience

+ Heat & water stress
+ Volatility & stress
Shifting suitability

Resilience,
mitigation
co-benefits

Broad applicability

Strong rationale; strong evidence
of the efficiency & effectiveness
of some types of support
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BECAUSE
OF MEDIUM EXPERIENCE

Targeted production
systems

Strong rationale based on need
to achieve multiple goals; strong
evidence of both potential
synergies and trade-offs
HIGH CONFIDENCE

+ Volatility & stress

Resilience,
mitigation
co-benefits

Targeted production
systems, to overcome
scaling challenges

Strong rationale based on need
to achieve multiple goals. Strong
evidence of effectiveness in
some situations, though scaling
challenges remain
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

= Highly applicable
= Very higly applicable
Confidence levels (high, medium, low) refer to confidence in the estimate of the intervention’s contribution to small-scale farmer adaptation.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

29

CHAPTER 3:
NATURAL ENVIRONMENT
The Challenge:
Critical Ecosystems Are
at Breaking Point

degradation112—with 3.6 million hectares of old-growth forest
destroyed in 2018 alone113—and a third of all marine fish
stocks are fished unsustainably.114 Climate change is everywhere accelerating the loss of natural assets,115 and the planet
is approaching thresholds beyond which ecosystem recovery
may not be possible.116 Coral reefs and polar ecosystems are

Nature gives protection against the mounting impacts of
climate change that is of incalculable value and irreplaceable.
Forests store and regulate water—services that will become

particularly vulnerable, with reefs projected to decline by up to
99 percent at 2°C of warming.117

even more important as rainfall becomes more unpredict-

This level of ecosystem damage most acutely affects indig-

able. Wetlands soak up potentially deadly floods and ensure

enous peoples, rural communities, and others who depend

supplies of life-giving water to farmers and cities in times of

directly on healthy ecosystems for their livelihoods.118 Capacity

drought. Mangroves tame the powerful storm surges that

to adapt may be especially limited for those with insecure land

might otherwise destroy coastal communities. These crucial

tenure and for women, who often lack a voice in how natural

ecosystems, and many others, underpin whole economies and

resources are managed.

societies, providing food and fuel, supporting livelihoods, and
fighting climate change itself by capturing carbon from the
atmosphere. A thriving natural environment is thus a cornerstone of building resilience across all sectors (Figure 3.1).

There is still time to work with nature, not against it, but the
window of opportunity is closing quickly. Nature’s services will
become even more valuable as global temperatures climb. But
beyond rises of 1.5°C or 2°C, tipping points may be reached.

Yet the alarming truth is that the trends are moving rapidly

Nature’s services will then be lost, making it impossible for

in the wrong direction. One in four species is facing extinc-

many parts of the world to adapt effectively. The option of

tion,111 about a quarter of all ice-free land is now subject to

enlisting nature to help mitigate and adapt to climate change
remains on the table—but only just.

FIGURE 3.1

Relationships between the Natural Environment and Climate Change Adaptation by Sector
T HE N AT URA L EN V IRON MENT S U PPO RTS R ES ILIENCE ACR O S S S ECTO R S

Water
Regulation of
water flows
Reduction of
floods and soil
erosion

Food
Food security

Urban cooling

Soil fertility

Water supply

Water and soil
retention

Flood protection

Source: Authors.

30

Cities

Global Commission on Adaptation

Infrastructure
Slope
stabilization
Water storage
Flood control

Supply
Chains
Sustainable
production
landscapes and
rural livelihoods

Disaster Risk
Management
Flood and
coastal
protection

Health
Pollutant and
pathogen control
Cooling
Psychological
well-being

The Way Forward:
Harnessing the
Power of Nature

We can already see the immense opportunity of using nature
to increase societal resilience in landscapes ranging from
uplands to the ocean (Figure 3.2). Restoring upland forests
and watersheds could save water utilities in the world’s 534
largest cities an estimated $890 million each year and is

The extensive study done for this Commission underscores
the many advantages—and major benefits—of working
with nature.119 First, nature-based solutions work for both
adaptation and mitigation, since nearly all interventions that
reduce climate impacts also increase carbon uptake and
storage. Natural solutions like forest restoration and avoiding
deforestation could provide a surprising one-third of the
climate mitigation needed between now and 2030 to keep
warming below 2°C.120

critical for regulating water flows and managing the future’s
more extreme floods.122 Meanwhile, lakes, marshes, and river
floodplains both slow the release of floodwater and filter out
sediment. The Netherlands has harnessed these capabilities
with a Room for the River strategy that increases capacity
of rivers and their floodplains to hold floodwaters, reducing
damage and loss of life (see Case Study 6 in the next chapter).
Ecosystem restoration also is a powerful tool for feeding the
hungry, cooling sweltering cities, and protecting communities.

There are many other benefits, such as better water quality,
more productive natural resources, job creation, improved
health, cultural benefits, and biodiversity conservation. Naturebased solutions often work well at a broad scale, such as
in whole watershed restorations or along coastlines. They
can be more cost-effective than engineered approaches,
like seawalls, and can also work well in tandem with those
engineering approaches to control floods, protect coasts, and
reduce urban heat. For example, combining “green” and engineered approaches in New York City would lower the costs of
flood protection by $1.5 billion (22 percent) compared to hard
infrastructure alone.121

One striking example is farmer-led reforestation in the Maradi
and Zinder regions of Niger, which has boosted crop yields,
improved soil fertility, and lifted communities out of poverty.
Tree cover has soared ten-fold and the daily time spent gathering firewood—a task that mainly falls to women—has dropped
from 3 hours to 30 minutes.123 For cities, an annual investment
of $100 million in urban tree planting could create enough
shade to cut average temperatures by 1°C for 77 million
people around the world.124 Restoring the mangrove forests
that offer protections from rising seas and storm surges is
two to five times cheaper than building engineered structures
like underwater breakwaters,125 while also storing carbon and
improving water quality and local fisheries.126,127
Yet despite the powerful case for working with nature to
reduce climate risks, the world has barely begun to realize this
potential. Few governments have adopted these approaches

Restoring the
mangrove forests
that protect from sealevel rise and storm
surges is 2 to 5 times
cheaper than building
engineered structures.

widely, even though many cite natural solutions in their NDCs.
And only 3 percent of nearly 2,000 companies reported using
natural ecosystems as part of their climate adaptation strategies.128 The barriers include lack of awareness of the critical
role of natural assets in underpinning social and economic
resilience and lack of accessible funds to invest in naturebased solutions. In addition, the piecemeal way adaptation is
often planned and executed undervalues or ignores the many
benefits of working with nature.
Humanity faces a stark choice: We can harness nature-based
solutions to mitigate climate change and to better adapt—or
we can continue with business as usual and lose the essential
and myriad services nature provides.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

31

FIGURE 3.2

How Different Nature-Based Solutions Can Work Together across Landscapes to Build Resilience

HAZARD: Loss of life & assets

due to intense wildfires
SOLUTION: Forest
management to reduce
risk of super-fires

HAZARD: Landslides, soil

loss, and siltation due
to intense rainfall
SOLUTION: Protect and
restore forests to
stabilize soils and slow
water runoff

MOUNTAINS,
FORESTS &
WATERSHEDS

HAZARD: Asset loss, yield
HAZARD: Crop failures and
HAZARD: Urban flooding
reduction & contamination livestock loss due to drought
due to intense rainfall
SOLUTION: Agroforestry to
SOLUTION: Restore
due to flooding
SOLUTION: Restore wetlands
make better use of soil
watercourses, expand
to absorb and filter flood
moisture and reduce
greenspaces, and
waters
evaporation
introduce porous surfaces
to reduce flood risk

HAZARD: Reduced or
intermittent river flow
due to drought
SOLUTION: Protect and
restore forests and
watersheds to
regulate flow

yield reduction &
transport disruption
due to flooding
SOLUTION: Protect and
restore forests to
slow water runoff

due to urban heat
islands
SOLUTION: Expand
green spaces in and
around cities

RIVERS &
WETLANDS

FARMLAND

CITIES

HAZARD: Loss of land,
livelihoods, and assets
due to rising sea levels
and coastal erosion
SOLUTION: Restore coastal
wetlands, including
enhance engineered
measures

HAZARD: Asset loss,
HAZARD: Heat stress

HAZARD: Loss of life and

assets due to storm
surges and inundation
SOLUTION: Protect and
restore mangroves,
marshes, and reefs to
buffer coasts and absorb
floodwaters

COASTS

Source: Authors.

Accelerate Existing Action
We can start by moving faster to meet existing commitments
to protect and enhance natural assets at scale, most of which
are not on track. These include international commitments
through the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity
(CBD), especially its emerging ambitious post-2020 global biodiversity framework. Other international commitments in need
of full implementation include the United Nations Convention
to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), the UNFCCC, and the
SDGs; the Bonn Challenge of restoring 350 million hectares
of degraded land by 2030; the Tropical Forest Alliance goal
of net-zero deforestation by 2020; and the Global Mangrove
Alliance’s target to increase global mangrove habitat by 20
percent by 2030.

That’s just a beginning, though. To take real advantage
of the power of nature, we must take the following three
critical steps:

1) Raise understanding of the value
of nature for climate adaptation
Governments and companies to identify, assess, and value
natural assets for their potential to support adaptation
and resilience. Natural capital methodologies are powerful
tools to help value nature’s benefits, raise understanding, and
inform planning processes. Expanding the evidence of what
works and what does not, sharing experiences and technical
know-how across sectors and professional disciplines, and
considering both indigenous and scientific knowledge is also
important to increase understanding.

32

Global Commission on Adaptation

2) Embed nature-based solutions into
adaptation planning and policy

Governments to adopt participatory planning processes. As

Governments and companies to develop high-level spatial

and to build on traditional and local knowledge. For nature-

plans to identify strategic opportunities at larger scales and

based solutions, local knowledge is particularly important,

to create shared visions for climate-resilient landscapes.

especially from indigenous communities that have adaptive

Nature-based solutions often have more substantial and last-

capacity embedded in their traditional knowledge systems.

ing benefits if deployed at landscape, ecosystem, or citywide

Participatory planning also helps ensure that interventions do

scales. Broad perspectives also make it easier to plan for

not undermine land and resource rights of rural populations

multiple objectives (see Case Study 3).

(see Case Study 4).

flagged in Chapter 1, participatory planning processes make
it possible to develop shared goals, to coordinate action,

CA S E S T U D Y 4

CASE STU DY 3

Planning with Ecosystems
China’s Ecological Redlining Policy uses a
rigorous science-based process to identify
priority areas for biodiversity conservation,
ecosystem services management, and disaster
risk reduction.129, 130 About a quarter of the country
is to be put under a high degree of protection to
build the resilience of critical natural assets.
Mexico has identified and designated water
reserves in more than one-third of its river basins,
covering nearly 50 million hectares. A mix of
protected areas and wetlands, these reserves can
help maintain adequate downstream flows and
protect the water supply for 45 million people in a
changing climate.131
The Great Green Wall Initiative in the Sahel and
West Africa, with catalytic funding from the
GEF, applies a landscape approach to improve
sustainable land and water management—such
as restoring 15 million hectares in Ethiopia and
planting 11.4 million trees in Senegal—across 21
African countries.132

Participatory Planning
in Indonesia
The benefits of participatory planning are
well illustrated on the coast of northern Java,
Indonesia. In Demak district, by planning and
working together, diverse stakeholders have
restored a 20-km belt of coastal mangroves,
introduced sustainable aquaculture, and reduced
groundwater extraction. The resulting increased
protection from coastal flooding and improved
aquaculture productivity have increased resilience
for 70,000 people, with additional carbon storage,
biodiversity, and fisheries benefits.133

Nature-based solutions
often have more
substantial and lasting
benefits if deployed at
landscape, ecosystem,
or citywide scales.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

33

3) Increase investment in
nature-based solutions

for ecosystem services (PES), green bonds, resilience bonds,

National and local governments to reorient policies,

assets, while Washington, DC, has attracted private capital to

subsidies and investments, including developing programs

reduce flooding by restoring wetlands.134

to better mobilize private sector support. Only the public
sector can align land-use regulations, infrastructure
investments, and fiscal policies around natural environment
objectives. The example from Canada (see Case Study 5)
illustrates types of public-sector interventions. Private sector
businesses should also be brought in as partners when
investments can bring returns. Examples include payments

insurance schemes, and water user fees. Costa Rica has
successfully deployed PES schemes to conserve natural

Developed countries and development agencies to increase
resources and technical assistance for developing countries
to support nature-based adaptation measures at scale.
Access to such funding should not be limited to national-level
authorities but should also be devolved to local communities
in ways that minimize any gender-based barriers to access.

CASE STU DY 5

Financing Nature-Based Solutions
Canada’s CAN$2 billion (US$1.6 billion) Disaster Mitigation and Adaptation Fund (DMAF) enables
communities to better manage risks from natural hazards like floods, wildfires, and droughts through
investment in natural and constructed infrastructure. One CAN$25 million (US$20 million) investment is
restoring saltmarshes and improving dykes along the Bay of Fundy in Nova Scotia. The project will reduce
coastal flooding for tens of thousands of residents and businesses, world heritage sites, indigenous
communities, and more than 20,000 hectares of farmland.

Saltmarshes along the Bay of Fundy in Nova Scotia, Canada.

34

Global Commission on Adaptation

CHAPTER 4:
WATER
The Challenge: Increasing
Floods, Droughts, and
Water Scarcity
The world is already facing daunting challenges managing this
precious resource and ensuring that people, crops, and the
environment have the water they need. Crucial water supplies,
like aquifers and lakes, are shrinking or increasingly polluted.
Floods and droughts cause damages in the billions of dollars
and take a huge human toll, in particular on women and
girls.135 Nor does it help that water is now grossly mismanaged in many areas—wasted in inefficient irrigation systems,
poorly allocated, and lost in aging, leaky water mains.
On top of all of these issues come the potentially devastating
impacts of climate change, which will largely be felt through
their effects on water. By 2050, the number of people who lack
sufficient water at least one month per year will soar to more
than 5 billion, from 3.6 billion today,

136

causing unprecedented

competition for water. This competition will in turn fuel
regional conflicts and migrations, tearing the already frayed
fabric of society, especially in developing countries.137

future will be very different from the past. Successful adaptation requires a fundamental transformation in how water is
managed, just as successful mitigation demands a complete
transformation of the energy system. Without such a transformation, violence, civil war, and mass displacements could
increase—and people in poverty now, who are more likely to
rely on rainfed agriculture and to live on the most marginal
lands, will suffer the most.

The Way Forward:
Manage Water Better
Adapting the planet’s water resources and systems to the
new climate reality is a formidable task. But it also offers
opportunities—to improve ecosystems, grow economies,
boost agricultural efficiencies, and tackle huge problems, like
inequity. To adapt right and to realize those opportunities,
the following four key actions, and specific steps under each
action, are critical:

1) Harness the power of nature and
expand water infrastructure

At the same time, climate change has already begun

Governments to invest in healthy watersheds. Wetlands,

increasing the number and severity of storms. Tomorrow’s

upland forests, and other crucial ecosystems, including 90

storms will overwhelm stormwater systems, send rivers

percent of the watersheds for large cities, are in serious

spilling over their banks, trigger landslides, and wash away

trouble.139 That is compromising water security, increasing

entire communities, increasing flood risks for fully half of the

pollution, and raising the cost of water. A vital first step,

planet’s population.

138

Coastal cities and communities—home

therefore, is reversing the current degradation of these areas

to one-tenth of the world’s population—and small island states

through new investments and better policies. Such actions

are particularly vulnerable, facing the triple threat of more

would bring major ecosystem benefits, including more reliable

floods, rising seas, and higher storm surges.

water supplies and reduced flood risks. In Chile, the Santiago

We are woefully unprepared for this new reality. Everything
from levees and irrigation systems to water management
plans and allocations is based on yesterday’s climate. But the

Water Fund is an innovative public-private partnership working
to protect 80 percent of the city’s freshwater by securing new
investments in conservation, natural infrastructure, and restoration in the Maipo River basin.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

35

Effects of Water Allocation Policies on GDP in 2050, Taking Climate Change into Account

FIGURE 4.1

BUS

INESS AS USUA

L

E

IC
FF

W AT E R P O

+6%

-6%
-10%

IENT

-6%
-6%

-6%

-6%

-2%

0%

LIC

IES

+2%
+1%

+1%

0%

-6%

Change in GDP:
-10% -6%

-2%

-1%

0%

+1% +2% +6%

Note: The left map shows change in GDP in 2050 assuming current water allocations remain unchanged. The right map shows change in GDP in 2050
assuming 25 percent of the water is reallocated to higher uses. Both maps take climate change into account, using a combination of optimistic (SSP1)
and pessimistic (SSP3) scenarios used by the IPPC.
Source: Authors, adapted from World Bank, High and Dry (2016).

world, water resource agencies and utilities should consider

2) Cope with water scarcity by using
water more productively

building or improving multipurpose reservoirs, creating

Vast amounts of water around the world are wasted through

interconnected regional water systems, and enhancing

inefficiencies, with some of the worst problems in countries

groundwater recharge.140 They may need to explore new

that are the most water-scarce.142 Taking advantage of

sources of water like wastewater reclamation or desalination

opportunities to save water and use it more productively

plants. And to better protect communities, governments may

promises quick and major gains and is essential to address

need to invest in new and upgraded flood infrastructure, such

the increasing stress that climate change will impose.

as embankments, drainage canals, stormwater systems, and

Figure 4.1 illustrates the improvement in GDP in 2050

retention facilities. The Republic of the Marshall Islands, with

assuming 25 percent of water is reallocated to higher uses.143

Governments to enhance and expand water infrastructure. To
ensure that people have the water they need in an uncertain

support from the Green Climate Fund, is investing in water
infrastructure to secure year-round access to safe freshwater.
This follows a severe 2015–16 drought that cost the country
roughly 4.5 percent of its GDP.

141

Government agencies to reallocate water to society’s
highest priorities. Water-resource agencies must develop fair
and transparent mechanisms to guide reallocation to highervalue uses and provide the flexibility to deal with climate
uncertainties. Such reallocation can be accomplished through

36

Global Commission on Adaptation

administrative decrees or economic instruments such as

energy. Wastewater treatment also helps protect public health

tradable water rights. Safeguards are required to ensure that

and protect scare water resources by improving water quality.

people—especially people living in poverty, women, and girls—

(See Case Study 6 for an example of water-smart plan-

and ecosystems have the water they need to thrive.

ning in action.)

Cities to become water-smart. Already, 14 of the world’s

Farmers, with the help of agricultural ministries, to use water

20 megacities face severe water shortages that threaten

more efficiently. Irrigation modernization, including using

economic productivity and quality of life.

144

Water utilities and

new techniques such as just-in-time irrigation, coupled with

their regulators can make the available water go further by

climate-appropriate agricultural policies, can slash the amount

reducing demand through appropriate pricing and incentives

of water needed in agriculture, which now accounts for about

for conservation. They also can increase the effective supply

70 percent of global water use. This can be done while also

by fixing leaky water mains, by reclaiming wastewater and

increasing yields.

stormwater, or by desalinating seawater using renewable

CASE STU DY 6

Room for the River in the Netherlands

CREDIT: ROBERTO MALDENO/FLICKR

Instead of building higher and higher levees, the Netherlands adopted a “Room for the River” strategy,
founded on the principles of water safety and spatial quality. The idea is to live with the water instead of
fighting it: The strategy gives water more space to spread out when floods occur, reducing damage and
loss of life. The country moved dikes inland, widened rivers, raised bridges, dug flood channels, and added
river catchment areas. New parks, public infrastructure, and recreational spaces were also created. Now the
Rhine River can safely carry 1,000 cubic meters of water per second more than it could before.145 “Working
with nature is getting more and more support these days and I think rightly so,” said Willem Jan Goossen
of the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management in a 2018 interview. “If you keep your floodplains and protect them as they are, you can still maintain your economic development while being flexible
and resilient in dealing with the risks.”146

Nijmegen River Park in the Netherlands, part of the country’s Room for the River project.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

37

3) Prepare for a changing climate by
planning for floods and droughts

4) Improve water governance and
scale up financing

Since the future will not be like the past, water resource

Countries that take seriously water management in the face

agencies to take new climate risks into account at every

of climate change make it a top national priority, backed up by

level of planning and operations. Planning can be improved

major investments.

via closer collaboration with meteorological and disastermanagement agencies. Water agencies have roles to play
during emergencies as well: They can retain floodwaters in
reservoirs to the extent possible to both minimize downstream
damage and prepare for future droughts, and they can
increase their ability to tap into groundwater in the case of
drought emergencies.

Countries to improve water governance. Political leaders
are responsible for creating policies and organizations that
embody three key elements. The first is collaboration among
government agencies and active participation by the private
sector, civil society, and the public. The second is capacity to
develop and implement good planning and regulatory regimes.
The third is supporting water security in transboundary waters

Government agencies to build better water-monitoring

through cooperation among states based upon agreements

systems. Managing water effectively requires enormous

and joint management bodies.

amounts of information and analysis. Meteorological, water
resource and environmental agencies thus should develop
ground- and satellite-based monitoring systems, coupled with
advanced hydro-informatics, to provide enhanced weather,
flood, and drought forecasting, to monitor environmental
conditions and improve water management. They should also
strengthen collaboration with civil society actors to ensure
community-level action in response to emergency warnings.

Governments to boost financing. Current investments fall far
short of what’s needed. The OECD estimates that spending
must climb threefold just to meet sustainable development
water supply and sanitation goals.147 Governments should
arrange for major increases in financing. Investments in
stormwater management, infrastructure to reduce flood and
drought risk, and ecosystem protection should be primarily
borne by governments, since healthy watersheds and flood
control are essential public goods. Investments in better water
delivery systems should be borne primarily by users, albeit
with some government support or the use of social tariffs to
help ensure access by people in poverty.
The adaptation recommendations in this chapter show
that our water systems can be transformed to ensure
water security and meet our SDG goals; however, this is
only possible with good governance and the right kinds of
investments.

Detail of a drip irrigation system in an agricultural training center
in Kenya. Drip irrigation is an example of a more water-efficient
farming practice.

38

Global Commission on Adaptation

CHAPTER 5: CITIES
AND URBAN AREAS
The Challenge: Cities and
Vulnerable Populations at
Grave Risk
Climate change is already bringing more damage, stresses,
and suffering to the world’s cities,148 home to more than half
the global population.149 Droughts are causing the water taps
in Mexico City to run dry, forcing millions of people to pay
many times more for tanker truck water deliveries. Heat waves
have struck cities from India to Europe. Torrential rains have
triggered killer landslides in La Paz and Durban, while fierce
storms and floods have destroyed factories in the Chinese
cities of Guangzhou and Dongguan and brought New York City
subways to a halt.
Without a determined effort to adapt to these impacts, the
economic toll and human pain in cities will inevitably climb—
sometimes dramatically. The double threat of rising seas and
greater storm surges alone could force hundreds of millions
of people from their homes in coastal cities (Figure 5.1), with a
total cost to coastal urban areas of more than $1 trillion each
year by midcentury.150

Moreover, in their rush to grow, many cities have been relentlessly stripping away or building over floodplains, forests, and
wetlands that could have absorbed stormwater or offered
respite and precious water during heat waves and droughts.
In several coastal U.S. states, for example, the highest rates of
home construction since 2010 have occurred in flood-prone
areas.152 As a result, more and more people are in harm’s
way all over the world, especially in rapidly growing, underresourced cities in developing countries that have limited
capacity to adapt to climate change.153
The challenges are enormous, but cities have no choice but
to innovate and adapt if they are to continue to thrive in a
warming world.

The Way Forward:
Building More Resilient
and Equitable Cities
Cities are places of constant change and renewal, with action
at all levels, from grassroots community groups and private
actors to city planning departments, regional, and national

These impacts imperil people’s quality of life and the
economic vibrancy of cities, which produce more than 80
percent of global GDP. And they make it even harder to tackle
the persistent issues that cities already face, such as poverty,
homelessness, and social inequality. More than 880 million
people now live in informal settlements where opportunities
are few and access to basic services like electricity, basic
healthcare, sanitation, education, and clean water is scarce
to nonexistent.151 The needs of women, especially women in
poverty, tend to go unrecognized, leaving them increasingly

agencies. Adaptation efforts can take advantage of this
transformative energy. Done carefully, through mobilizing
resources, harnessing synergies between climate adaptation and mitigation, and simultaneously tackling persistent
problems like poverty, inequality, and basic infrastructure
deficits, adaptation efforts can put cities on a stronger, safer
path that offers economic opportunities and higher quality
of life for all. We recommend the following four crucial steps,
each with detailed actions, to make cities more inclusive and
climate-resilient:

vulnerable and further behind educationally, economically,
and politically.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

39

FIGURE 5.1

Large Portions of Major Urban Areas Are in Low-Elevation Coastal Zones

Urban clusters within
10 meters of sea level

Urban centers
within 10 meters
of sea level

Dumyat

Urban clusters

Urban centers

Areas
within 10
meters of
Port Said sea level

Kafr el Sheikh
Alexandria
Damanhur
Ismailia
Dhaka
Cairo

Suez

Khulna
Kolkata

Barisal

Chittagong

Note: “Urban centers” are cities and large urban areas; “urban clusters” are towns and suburbs or small urban areas.
Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network (Columbia University), CUNY Institute for Demographic Research (City University of New York), and
the Institute of Development Studies. 2019. For the Coalition for Urban Transitions and the Global Commission on Adaptation.

1) Mainstream information on
climate risks in the planning and
delivery of urban services, while
strengthening local capacity

City governments and private actors to build capacity to use

Knowledge providers to make the latest modeling

new buildings and other infrastructure are designed—and

technologies and credible data on climate risks available
to cities and communities. Many cities in the developing
world currently lack even basic floodplain maps that
are crucial to adaptation efforts. All cities urgently need
updated topographic maps, along with weather and climate
information, satellite, and remote sensing data; models
that reveal risks of climate impacts to local areas; and
assessments of the vulnerabilities for specific population
groups, such as women and people living in poverty.

40

Global Commission on Adaptation

this information in order to drive integrated urban planning,
investments, and operations and reduce climate risks. Cities
can select safer ground for neighborhoods or factories, for
instance, as Surat, India, did by relocating key industry clusters
away from flood-prone zones.154 They must also ensure that
existing infrastructure is retrofit—to better withstand predicted
climate impacts. Docks and wharfs can be raised to stay
above rising seas, for instance. More powerful pumps can be
installed in underground public transit stations and tunnels,
pavements and open space can be designed to soak up more
stormwater. Disaster preparedness and response systems
can be made an essential part of designs and operations. All
these actions typically require more resources, and too many

FIGURE 5.2

Urban Planning with Nature-Based Solutions for Adaptation

Increasing tree
cover and green
spaces to battle
heat island effect

Toronto and Montreal are
significantly expanding
tree coverage, improving
urban biodiversity and
ecosystem connectivity

Community gardens
help increase water
retention while
encouraging
community-building
and local
conservation

Dresden is building
an urban gardening
network to help
with district-level
regeneration efforts

Greening rooftops to reduce
summer heat, provide winter
insulation, and reduce
stormwater runoff

Chicago’s green
rooftops have
helped slow
stormwater
runoff by 36%

Increasing permeable
surfaces and
wetlands to increase
natural infiltration of
rainwater and reduce
stormwater runoff

China’s sponge cities
pilot aims to capture,
reuse or absorb up to
80% of stormwater runoff
in urban areas by 2030

Source: Authors, based on Chu, E., Brown, A., Michael, K., Du, J., Lwasa, S., and Mahendra, A. 2019. “Unlocking the Potential for Transformative Climate Adaptation in
Cities.” Washington, DC: Global Commission on Adaptation and World Resources Institute.

city governments have very limited investment and technical

a backdrop of decreasing water availability and predictability

capacity. None of these steps are easy, but they offer major

in many cities, integrated planning of water use across

payoffs in future losses avoided, greater economic returns,

residential, industrial, energy, agricultural, and other sectors

lower infrastructure maintenance costs, and longer building

is essential. A single extreme event can lead to cascading

and infrastructure lifetimes. In coastal cities, for instance,

hazards and a breakdown of a city’s infrastructure. Climate

the annual cost of global adaptation is one-tenth the total

adaptation and disaster risk reduction in urban areas

cost of no action.155 Adaptation action in cities can even

requires providing weather, climate, hydrological, and related

mitigate climate change. Better public transit infrastructure

environmental services and information in an integrated

can both improve resilience and cut carbon emissions, for

way, tailored for each city. The Surat Climate Change Trust in

example, and make it possible to connect low-income urban

Surat, India, for example, was born out of the realization that

dwellers—who increasingly live in women-headed and minority

more than a dozen different agencies and institutions had a

households —to better jobs.

share of the overall flood-management responsibility for the

156

City officials to coordinate across agencies, sectors, and
levels of government. Cross-sectoral approaches are the
best way to enhance resilience in cities. For example, against

city—and that successful adaptation required city officials,
natural resource authorities, and state disaster management
authorities to work together.157

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

41

2) Harness the power of nature to
respond to both water and heat risks
Cities, regional agencies, and water utilities to adopt

Partnerships between city governments and informal communities, as seen in numerous cities across Africa and Asia, help
build solutions.

integrated approaches that together address flood and heat

City decision-makers to tap into citizen knowledge and

management, and protection of water sources. As Chapter

experience, especially from people who are marginalized,

3 describes, green roofs and greater tree cover can cool

to support more inclusive climate adaptation strategies.

cities and reduce energy use, and wetlands and forests can

To redress development inequalities and reduce poverty,

temper floods and increase water supplies by protecting water

adaptation must tackle head-on the issues of economic,

sources (Figure 5.2). In many cases, these and other nature-

social, and political marginalization in urban areas. Because

based solutions are remarkably cost-effective: In São Paulo,

accurate information on informal settlements and climate

for instance, the reduction of sediment flow from restoring

impacts is often lacking, many actions, when taken, are

4,000 hectares of forests near the city’s watershed was

ineffective or make things worse. City governments thus must

estimated to be $4.5 million cheaper than the cost of dredging

do more to engage vulnerable communities in improving

reservoirs to improve urban water quality.

158

But since

resilience, as in the “Know Your City” Initiative, where residents

ecosystems such as watersheds typically extend well beyond

of informal settlements help gather data to understand

urban boundaries, cities must coordinate across jurisdictions.

climate risks and prioritize upgrading investments (see Case

That’s what the city of Durban, South Africa, did with a

Study 7 for another example).163

transmunicipal partnership that addresses water security
problems in the Umgeni River catchment, while also improving

CA S E S T U D Y 7

water and sanitation access to underserved and periurban
areas and experimenting with graywater reuse techniques.159

3) Build climate resilience by
upgrading living conditions in
vulnerable communities and
informal settlements, drawing
on community knowledge
City governments to strengthen the adaptive capacity
of vulnerable and informal communities.160 Climate risks
disproportionately affect people living in poverty, many
of whom live in underserved informal settlements. These
communities are often at risk for flooding or landslides,161
are susceptible to extreme heat, and have little or no political
voice in cities. Improved housing, water, sanitation, drainage,
and waste management can improve health and increase
informal workers’ productivity, while building resilience. The
Asian Coalition for Community Action (ACCA) program has
supported such community-led improvements in more than
2,000 informal settlements in 207 cities and 18 countries.162
Deficits in basic infrastructure in many cities require
significant investment in climate-resilient trunk infrastructure
(e.g., water mains, sewerage lines, electricity grids). Ideally,
community-led upgrading efforts can connect to this, but
many city governments lack adequate resources and would
benefit from technological innovations.

42

Global Commission on Adaptation

Building Resilient Homes
in the Philippines
In 2009, when Typhoon Ondoy hit the Philippines,
40,000 people were living in informal settlements
along the Manggahan Floodway. Lives and
property were lost. In the aftermath, people
living in the informal settlements worked with
decision-makers to advocate for their rights to
housing and began designing their own climateresilient homes. After years of community-based
planning and negotiation, construction began.
The climate-resilient design incorporates things
like disaster-resilient materials and elevated
water tanks. So far, 480 families have moved in;
when complete, the project is expected to have
900 units. “We believe in order to be a resilient
community, the people should have the capacity
to organize with government stakeholders,”
said Bryan Carlo R. Teodosio, an organizer with
Community Organizers Multiversity who worked
with informal settlements on the project. “They
need to be consulted at all levels.”164

4) Increase climate-resilient
investments and capture value from
adaptation benefits
International financial institutions, donors, and the private
sector to step up finance for urban adaptation, and to
prioritize valuing and incentivizing such investments. Less
than 5 percent of global climate adaptation finance between
2010 and 2014 was spent on cities.165 Given the limited
fiscal authority of many cities, more concessional financing
is needed, with greater coordination across international
financial institutions to reduce the transaction costs for cities.
Partnerships in technical assistance play an important role;
for instance, project preparation facilities by NGOs and other
agencies have helped governments design adaptation initiatives as a well-sequenced bankable portfolio of projects.166
National governments and national development banks to
encourage urban adaptation, because many cities depend
heavily on national transfers and policies. In Kenya, for
example, the 2016 Climate Change Act required all county governments to integrate climate action into development plans
that have lasting impacts on Kenyan cities.167 The Danish
government similarly required municipalities to integrate
climate risk data and adaptation strategies into development
plans, while also creating mechanisms for water utilities to

climate-friendly solutions for area-based development and
citywide infrastructure projects by harnessing technology in
a way that encourages economic growth, improves quality of
life, and reduces vulnerability to disasters.169
City governments to share the value created from adaptation investments with private real estate developers and
infrastructure providers, while ensuring that benefits are
distributed equitably. Public investment in adaptation can
generate significant value, instead of just averting losses,
and can pay for itself. A study in New York City found that a
combined green-gray infrastructure approach would meet
stormwater targets more cost-effectively and attract more
private investment, relieving pressure on the city’s budget.170
Cities should work with the commercial development industry to ensure that governments can capture a portion of this
value, which can be recycled into more adaptation investments. Cities must also find ways to generate local financing
for adaptation investments. Developed cities will need more
sophisticated taxation and value-capture measures with relevant insurance schemes. Developing cities must strengthen
land management systems and invest strategically in resilient
infrastructure for greater returns.
Given the diversity across cities, the above four steps and
the actions within them need to respond to the very different
levels of technical and financial capacity in cities.

CREDIT: UN PHOTO/KIBAE PARK

fund investments in enhanced stormwater management

infrastructure.168 The Smart Cities Mission of India encourages

An informal settlement in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

43

CHAPTER 6:
INFRASTRUCTURE
The Challenge: Inadequate
Infrastructure and
Increasing Vulnerability
All around the world, much of the infrastructure171 that we
depend on is crumbling, aging, or simply missing. Chunks
of concrete have fallen on cars from deteriorating bridges
in Massachusetts and California, dams in Brazil have failed,
and one-third of Germany’s rail bridges and half of London’s
water mains are more than a century old.172 Even worse,
almost 1 billion people lack the lifeblood of the modern global
economy—electricity—and 4.2 billion are forced to live without
safely managed sanitation.173
Tackling these infrastructure challenges will require significant
investment. Simply repairing bridges, roads, ports, sewers, runways, and other vital public works in the United States will cost
an estimated $4.5 trillion.174 Many trillions more are needed
to build the new electricity grids, public transit systems, and
other facilities that are crucial to raising living standards
around the world, particularly in developing countries, and to
upgrade existing systems—while also cutting carbon emissions to fight climate change.175 But the costs of failing to
meet these challenges are even higher. Without reliable power,
water, transportation, sanitation, and other basic infrastructure services, economies will shrink, whole countries will fall
behind, diseases will take a larger toll, and persistent problems
like poverty and inequality will be harder to solve.
On top of all these existing problems come the growing
impacts of climate change. More extreme floods are washing
out bridges and overwhelming sewage treatment plants. Heat
waves are buckling roads and forcing power plants to shut
down, while rising seas threaten ports and coastal airports.
These impacts and others already are causing
$29 billion176 per year in direct damages to transportation

44

Global Commission on Adaptation

and power generation in developing countries. In Europe,
the toll could soar 10 times by the end of the century in the
absence of adaptation measures under some scenarios.177
In Africa, declining water flows could cut revenues from
hydropower generation by up to 60 percent, causing energy
prices to jump threefold.178 And in the Arctic region, 70 percent
of current infrastructure (including 100 airports or airfields
and 13,000 km of roads) may be threatened by permafrost
thawing by 2050.179
Moreover, every bridge failure or power generation glitch
sends ripples of indirect impacts throughout the economy
that can be many times greater than the direct damages.
People may be unable to get to work. Food may rot before it
reaches the market. Industry supply chains may be cut, and
factories may have to slow production or shut down. For
example, Typhoon Mangkhut in Asia brought major logistics
hubs and the ports of Hong Kong and Shenzhen to a standstill
and disrupted 6,500 supplier sites; and Hurricane Florence in
the United States caused an estimated $24 billion in losses in
industries from aerospace to pharmaceuticals.180, 181 The economic costs of infrastructure disruptions can far exceed those
of direct flood damages. Modeling shows that if a major flood
were to strike Paris, up to 85 percent of business losses would
come from electricity and transport disruptions.182 In low- and
middle-income countries, infrastructure disruptions already
cost households and businesses $391–$647 billion per year,
much of it caused by current climate variability.183 These
impacts are not just financial: more people will suffer or die
if they can’t get to the hospital. As the hazards from climate
change increase, so will these indirect impacts.
The greatest burden from these impacts often falls on those
who are socially excluded or disadvantaged. Some groups
are vulnerable because they already lack adequate flood
defenses, clean water, or other vital services. Many have fewer
resources to cope when disasters and disruptions do occur,
have less voice in shaping infrastructure services, and often

are the last to see repairs and upgrades. When water pipes

projects)185 can unlock benefits that are several times greater

fail, for instance, it is usually women who must walk the extra

than those incremental costs.186 Meanwhile, innovative

distance to fetch the family’s supply.

approaches can improve access of underserved communities

But if the twin challenges of inadequate infrastructure and
growing climate impacts are formidable, they also present
a major opportunity. Countries will be investing trillions of
dollars a year repairing, replacing, and building infrastructure
no matter what the future holds. Yet most current investments
fail to take the impacts of climate change into account,
even when they are made in areas highly exposed to those
impacts.184 Since bridges, sewers, and other structures will be
in service for many decades, these unfortunate decisions are
locking in increasing vulnerabilities and making it difficult and
expensive to adapt in the future.
The much better choice is to build the new highway bridge
higher and stronger and to locate assets away from exposed
areas (see Figure 6.1). Improving the resilience of infrastructure systems through repairs and new construction creates
safer communities and stronger economies in a warming
world, and pays for itself many times over. Studies show that
a slight increase in upfront costs (3 percent for transport

FIGURE 6.1

to electricity, water, sanitation, and communications, as well
as improve network resilience (see Box 5).
BOX 4

Innovative approaches to sanitation
The development and adoption of self-contained
toilets and waste processing technologies—such
as the reinvented toilet—that kill pathogens
and do not require running water, sewers, or
treatment plants are a catalytic solution to the
global sanitation crisis. Conventional sewer
sanitation is not likely to be the most sustainable
or affordable solution for all urban, let alone
rural, areas. Scaling up new technologies can
help preserve water and protect human life in
regions that are predicted to bear the brunt of the
environmental, health, and economic effects of
climate change.187

A Systems Approach to Strengthening Asset and System Resilience

Added redundancy for
key infrastructure links

Higher standards for
critical infrastructure links
Pavement designed to resist
melting in high temperatures

Roadway
elevated to reduce
flood risk

Drainage
designed for
heavier rainfall

Avoid construction
in high-risk areas

F
P LL O O
AI D
N

Source: Authors.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

45

The Way Forward:
Integrating Climate
Resilience into
Infrastructure
The central message of this chapter is simple: Climate resilience needs to be integrated into all infrastructure assets and
systems throughout their lifecycles. This requires the engagement of the appropriate public institutions and agencies, with
national policies to support local action. Developers, operators, owners, data providers, and communities all have vital
roles. Significant additional public and private investment will

CA S E S T U D Y 8

Using Data to Identify
Infrastructure Risks
Endeavour Energy owns, manages, and operates
a distribution network supplying electricity to
2.4 million people in Australia. Endeavour Energy
uses a geographic information system (GIS) that
includes the location and layout of assets and
other geographic features. The GIS forms part
of Endeavour Energy’s maps that identify those
assets in bushfire-prone areas and enables more
efficient and effective management of vegetation
near power lines to minimize outages.

be required.
We recommend the following four critical steps to ensure that

Governments to use strategic planning to create and

we have the infrastructure needed for a changing climate:

finance more climate-resilient infrastructure systems. These

1) Undertake inclusive and climateinformed planning for new and
existing infrastructure

future scenarios, informed by robust risk assessment. This

Governments, development agencies, and the private sector
to collaborate to strengthen knowledge and capacity for
managing climate risks. In many countries, the data needed
to understand climate hazards and exposure are lacking.
Investments in data and tools provide widespread benefits,
underpinning climate-informed decisions. Increased peer
learning between infrastructure sectors and across countries
is needed to generalize emerging good practices. Concerted
capacity-building, particularly at the local level, is needed to
move from improved information to better decisions.
Infrastructure asset owners to assess and manage climate
risks to those assets. Risk assessments can reveal vulnerabilities and make the case for investments to reduce risks. This
can also support reporting in line with the recommendations
of the TCFD. In some cases, minor physical enhancements
can be made to improve resilience to impacts like flooding,
drought, fire, disease, or wind, such as moving backup generators out of easily flooded basements. Resilience can also
be enhanced through operational changes, such as improved
monitoring and strengthened business continuity management (see Case Study 8).

plans should be designed to perform well across a range of
helps to identify critical assets and prioritize investments in
new or retrofit infrastructure. One example is Curaçao, which
has developed a long-term infrastructure plan designed to
quickly provide benefits for people and the environment, while
also preparing for long-term adaptation to sea level rise.188
Planning should reflect the different priorities for infrastructure
services among communities being served and designed to
overcome historical disparities in access. Planning should also
be designed to provide flexibility over time (see Case Study 9).
These plans should explore the range of potential public and
private revenue sources, including innovative tools such as land
value capture. The aim is to identify a sequenced, coherent
portfolio of projects, supported by a viable financing strategy.

2) Mandate climate-resilient design
New infrastructure assets should be designed to withstand
projected climate impacts and ensure environmental sustainability for lifespans that will often be 40 years or more.
Incentives fostering design innovations should be promoted.
Governments to develop and update national technical
codes and standards to account for physical climate risks,
adapting international best practices to local conditions. So
far, only 5 of the 35 OECD countries have revised at least one
code to account for climate risks.189 Developing countries face
the further challenge that their standards are often taken from
other countries, without being adjusted for national circumstances. Concerted efforts to develop nationally appropriate,

46

Global Commission on Adaptation

CASE STU DY 9

Governments and public finance institutions to reduce the

Investing in Climate-Resilient
Infrastructure
Canada’s latest infrastructure investment plan
emphasizes building resilience through the use of
both constructed and natural infrastructure—from
seawalls and roads to natural shorelines and
wetlands. The Investing in Canada Plan commits
CAN$22 billion (US$17 billion) for green infrastructure investments—including ones that will
boost resilience to the impacts of climate change.
The Republic of the Marshall Islands, meanwhile, is working with the World Bank to improve
the resilience of maritime infrastructure.
Communities in the Marshall Islands depend on
transport by boat for everything from education
to health services: protecting docks and ports
from climate impacts is vital. The project includes
a contingent emergency response component
(CERC) that enables funds to be quickly reallocated in response to emergency events.

real or perceived risks to investing in resilient infrastructure.
Improvements to the policy environment for investment can
reduce the risks faced by investors. Where suitable revenue
streams can be established, public and private funding can
be combined using blended finance. Public finance also can
help reduce risks with concessional tranches in the capital
structure of the asset. These can take the form of equity
grants for project development, first-loss guarantees, credit
guarantees, or capped returns. Public finance institutions,
including the MDBs, can also provide technical expertise in
the management of climate risks to reduce the riskiness of
private investment.
Governments to explore the use of new financing models,
such as land value capture, that can create new revenue
streams for resilient investments.
Governments to ensure that their direct procurement of
infrastructure, and the economic regulation of privately
owned utilities, supports resilient options. In particular, the
assessment processes should consider the likely lifecycle
costs of different options, rather than focusing on the upfront
costs, and should provide flexibility for innovative approaches,
including the use of nature-based solutions.

climate-resilient standards, and to translate those standards
into action on the ground, are needed.
Public and private investors to screen all significant new
and retrofitted infrastructure projects to ensure that they
are resilient to climate change. Canada, the European
Commission, and the multilateral development banks (MDBs)
have been pioneers in integrating consideration of climate risk
into decision-making, but, overall, national governments and
the private sector are lagging behind.

4) Prepare financing to minimize
disruption when infrastructure
damage occurs
It is neither cost-effective nor technically feasible to eliminate
all risks from a changing climate. It is vital, therefore, to rebuild
rapidly and resiliently after extreme events. It is essential to
“build back better” when replacing damaged assets, taking the
opportunity to reduce hazards.

3) Mobilize private sector investment
in resilient infrastructure

Insurance industry, asset owners, governments, and donors

Eighty percent of private investors want to increase their

providing prearranged credit, and expanding insurance. For

infrastructure investment within the next five years,190 but the
investments will not occur without sufficient revenue streams.
The recommendations in the Finance chapter (Chapter 8)
underscore the need for action to mobilize finance for resilient
infrastructure. In addition, policies or incentives are needed
to mobilize investments in resilient infrastructure, since areas
with the greatest need for such infrastructure will often be
perceived by private investors as being risky. Public funding
will, however, continue to play an essential role.

to work to achieve more rapid recovery after disasters hit.
Possible strategies include combining financial reserves,
example, Colombia has strengthened insurance coverage
for new road concessions, enhancing financial protection for
infrastructure.191 Combining efforts to improve risk management in general with a specific focus on infrastructure could
help increase uptake of coverage and ultimately reduce the
costs resulting from related disruption. This can be facilitated
by scaling up existing mechanisms, including the Global Risk
Financing Facility (GRiF).

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

47

CHAPTER 7: DISASTER
RISK MANAGEMENT
The Challenge: Preventing
Hazards from Becoming
Disasters
Humanity has always lived under the looming threat of nature’s
fury, from the floods of ancient times to dust bowl droughts and
recent hurricanes. But now, an atmosphere supercharged with
heat and moisture is making life even more difficult. Climate
change is increasing not just the number of potentially deadly
weather events but also their ferocity. As a result, existing
weather records are being broken by new extremes with
every passing year, like the sweltering 42.6°C July 2019 heat
in Paris192 or the staggering 1.26 meters of rain that fell in 24
hours, in April 2018, on the Hawaiian island of Kauai.193
And with more people in harm’s way, thanks to humanity’s
relentlessly sprawling footprint, the loss of protective ecosystems, and myriad other factors, the potential for extreme
weather to cause human disasters—loss of life and major
damage—is climbing.
That’s why it’s so vital that the world continue to improve how
it prepares for and responds to hazards, following the examples of many countries that have succeeded in reducing the
toll from severe weather (as the Bangladesh example shows
in Chapter 1). We know that it works to warn people about

preparations, even as heat records were being broken across
Europe. (See Case Study 10 for more examples.)
CA S E S T U D Y 1 0

Protecting People from
Extreme Heat
Germany and India have both responded to devastating heat waves with action plans that focus
on protecting their most vulnerable citizens. After
a 2010 heat wave killed more than 1,300 people,
Ahmedabad, India, took quick actions: training
health care staff, distributing water, painting roofs
with white reflective paint (to reduce the heat in
homes by as much as 5°C), and more. Thanks to
this Heat Action Plan, fewer than 20 people died
in a similar heat wave in May 2015.195 Thirty other
Indian cities have adopted the plan, and the Indian
National Disaster Management Authority has
issued guidelines based on it. In Kassel, Germany,
heat warning hotlines advise elderly residents of
incoming heat waves and provide recommendations to stay cool and healthy. The Hesse region
even created a quality “Climate-Adapted” seal to
ensure standards of “climate-fit” nursing care.196

impending emergencies and to take proactive actions like
moving them to higher ground in floods. These interventions
for preparedness and response need to be extended and
strengthened even as existing hazards such as flooding now
occur in more places and with increasing intensity. But that is
not enough. Such measures are also needed for hazards like
heat waves and wildfires that are becoming stronger and more
common. In 2003, thousands were killed in Europe during a
prolonged heat wave.194 Learning from that experience, deaths
were drastically reduced in 2019 due to swift and effective

48

Global Commission on Adaptation

But those capabilities are only a fraction of what’s needed
to make the world safer and stronger. Even when lives are
spared, disasters such as tropical cyclones or the wildfire
that incinerated the California town of Paradise are causing increasing damage to homes, businesses, and basic
infrastructure like roads and power grids. Cleaning up and
rebuilding in the aftermath of these disasters is an enormous
and growing financial burden—a burden that may drive people
into poverty.

limit or reduce damage in the first place. Creating natural

1) Reduce long-term vulnerability
and exposure

shoreline barriers or restoring wetlands can tame dangerous

As the Sendai Framework recognizes—and as we outline in

storm surges and floodwaters, for example. Unfortunately,

Chapter 1—preventing disasters by reducing multisectoral

prevention has received neither the attention nor the support

risks is the best option. Given that much of the risk arises from

that it urgently needs. International investment in response

planning and investment decisions that shape where we live,

and reconstruction is more than 20 times larger than the

the infrastructure we use, and the environment that surrounds

support for steps to avoid damage.197 Greater investments

us, earlier chapters in this report have outlined ways agri-

in effective disaster risk reduction would reduce the need for

culture, water systems, the natural environment, cities, and

such massive investment in response and reconstruction.

infrastructure can be made stronger and more resilient in the

A far more cost-effective strategy than responding after
a disaster strikes is investing in adaptation measures to

Another pressing problem is the prevalence of outdated legal,

face of climate impacts.

regulatory, and policy frameworks. Many different government

Countries to develop national strategies and provide dedi-

agencies may have only small pieces of the overall respon-

cated funding for disaster risk reduction. These strategies

sibility for preparing for and responding to severe weather

must ensure the latest information on risk is used to guide

events. Disaster response may not even be included in natural

where and how to build new communities and all other new

resource management laws and policies. Moreover, in most

investments in order to limit future exposure and risk. They

countries, local authorities on the front lines of disaster

must also make sure that no one is left behind, especially the

management lack the resources needed to carry out their

most vulnerable.

vital duties.

The Way Forward:
Prevent, Protect, and
Recover
These challenges point to an obvious but difficult solution:
Overall, we must rapidly increase investment across the entire
range of effective actions, from reducing the exposure and
vulnerability of people and the natural and built environment
to weather events, to recovering stronger, faster, and more
inclusively after disasters occur. The starting point is to fully
implement global agreements already in place—such as the

2) Boost efforts to warn, respond,
and protect
It is difficult in the short term to reduce the exposure of
populations and assets to climate hazards. But much more
can be done to improve public awareness, early warning
mechanisms (including preparedness planning and last
mile communications) and disaster response systems.
Investments in early warning systems in developing countries
have big payoffs, as noted in Chapter 1. One study estimates
that modest investments of around $1 billion a year in
developing countries could deliver total benefits ranging from
$4 billion to $36 billion.198

Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, which outlines

Governments to invest more in early warning systems and

the roles of governments and other public and private actors

in ensuring that those warnings are heard and acted upon.

in reducing risks—while building on initiatives such as the

Public awareness campaigns need to better target all those

Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), which seeks

who might be affected in order to improve awareness of risks

to make planning and policy decisions climate-informed,

and to explain what to do when disasters occur. It is also vital

and the Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction (GFDRR),

to invest in local capacity to act on warnings and to provide

which provides knowledge, funding, and technical assistance

legal mandates that make it clear who has responsibility for

to developing countries for reducing their vulnerability to

making timely warnings and for maintaining local warning

natural hazards.

systems and equipment. Of particular importance is increasing

Here are the specific steps we must take:

financing for civil protection and first responders. (See Case
Study 11 for an initiative that targets some of the most
vulnerable populations globally.)

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

49

CASE STU DY 11

Generating Early Warnings
Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS)
is a partnership of several international organizations (the World Bank, World Meteorological
Organization, and United Nations Office for
Disaster Risk Reduction) and countries (Australia,
France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands,
Switzerland, and Canada) that aims to saves lives,
assets, and livelihoods in least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing states
(SIDS) by increasing the capacity to generate and
communicate effective, impact-based, multihazard, gender-informed early warnings.

3) Increase capacities to absorb and
recover from extreme events
While an immediate crisis may be successfully managed
through emergency response and recovery operations, the
underlying vulnerability of people living in poverty and other
marginalized groups may actually increase for years to come.
Moreover, disasters can drain public finances unless plans are
in place to mitigate the financial shocks. Leveraging advances
in predictive capabilities, forecast-based actions can enable
governments and international and civil society organizations
to ensure access to predictable and rapid funding before
and after disasters, and to rapidly transmit it to those most
affected. Governments need to shift from reacting to disasters
to proactively developing preparedness plans for extreme
climate events among the relevant government ministries and
stakeholders including civil society organizations.

Governments to provide warnings and partner with civil
society to ensure effective responses for new and emerging
risks from climate change. While much of the world’s early
warning effort has been focused on storms, floods, and
droughts, other hazards like heat waves and wildfires are
also becoming more common and more intense. Measures
like free water distribution and cooling centers have proven
effective, reducing the human toll in cities like Ahmedabad,
India, and Paris. Moreover, wildfires could increase the area
of burned land in Mediterranean Europe by 40–100 percent
across 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C global warming scenarios.199 These
risks and responses must be included in longer-term riskmanagement systems.

Governments and development agencies to scale up
financial solutions that reduce disaster shocks on public
finances. This requires systems (early action protocols and
dedicated funding) that enable funds to flow to communities
in advance of predicted shocks, instead of after they occur
(see Case Study 12). Expanding domestic insurance markets
for homeowners and public assets can reduce the sovereign
financial burden for reconstruction, for instance. Moreover, the
right blend of financial protection measures—such as catastrophe bonds, budget lines, or contingent credit—can ensure that
predictable, adequate, and timely government financing is
available for response and recovery. Actions that are based
on accurate forecasting could be much more cost effective,
significantly lowering the cost of emergency response.200

CASE STU DY 12

Responding Before Disaster Strikes
Forecast-based financing (FbF) turns the standard disaster response—act after disaster strikes—on its
head. Using advanced weather forecasts and a dedicated funding mechanism, FbF funnels resources to
communities before extreme events hit. “With such a timely disbursal, we hope to avoid potential catastrophe
before it even happens, supporting people to continue working and going to school,” said Robert Kwesiga,
Secretary General of the Uganda Red Cross Society (URC).201 Uganda is one of 16 Red Cross Red Crescent
societies around the world piloting FbF. Uganda has seen more frequent flooding and more severe droughts
due to climate change. In the Kapelebyong Region, FbF helped more than 2,000 people protect themselves
against flooding-induced waterborne diseases, and enabled URC to proactively warn residents of potential
flooding in two districts.

50

Global Commission on Adaptation

Governments to expand and tailor social safety nets to

Governments to plan for recovery and response before

support both shock-response and long-term resilience.

disasters hit. Too often, reconstruction strategies are only

Greater investments are needed in social protection and

considered in the aftermath of disasters, such as whether to

safety net programs, which need to be made more inclusive

work under existing administrative frameworks or under new

and responsive to shocks. With the right data on beneficiaries,

approaches, or how much to use public finances for recovery

existing social protection systems can be modified to provide

in the private sector or for rebuilding citizens’ homes. As

top-up benefits in emergencies or reach a wider group of

these decisions take considerable time, the lack of advanced

people in need. As we pointed out in the earlier chapter on

planning can substantially delay recovery and reconstruction,

food, social safety nets can be an important element of

adding to the economic toll and human suffering.

livelihood security for smallholder farmers, and similarly for

Governments therefore should carefully prepare contingency

urban residents living in poverty and the informal sector, as

plans that enable building back stronger, faster, and more

discussed in the cities chapter.

inclusively.202 They should also update and strengthen legal
and policy frameworks to ensure prioritized, coherent action
that cuts across institutional silos and guarantees the role of

CREDIT: WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION.

civil society.

A Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Global station in Barrow, Alaska. GAW stations collect weather and climate data.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

51

CHAPTER 8:
FINANCING ADAPTATION
The Challenge: Scaling Up
Investments

The Way Forward: A
Transformation in Finance

As we have shown throughout this report, the economic

Ensuring that resources do flow will require 4 things, all of

case for resilience is strong (Chapter 1), and there are strong

which must be undertaken simultaneously:

demands for increased resources to strengthen the resilience
volume needed.

1) Shift how investment decisions
get made

While previous chapters have focused on the demand side for

As we set out in earlier chapters, many improvements in

of our economies (Chapters 2–7). Money is not flowing at the

resources, this chapter focuses on the supply side. Financial
resources for adaptation investments will have to come in a
coordinated manner from across the entire financial system
(see Figure 8.1). While investments in adaptation have clear
economic benefits, they may require large upfront payments
before reaping medium- and longer-term benefits. Furthermore,
many adaptation investments do not generate sufficient shortterm cash flows to attract private investors. For this reason, the
public sector needs to shift its focus to include both generating
finance and creating incentives to scale up private sector
engagement in adaptation investments.

adaptation and resilience will come from investments in
key systems, such as water, transportation, and agriculture.
However, investment decisions in both government and
private markets do not yet systematically take physical
climate risks into account, though they are starting to do
so. As we saw in Chapter 1, efforts to take climate risk into
account and to improve the pricing of climate risk will help
both the public and private sectors acquire better technical
and financial understanding of risk, establish priorities, shape
climate-informed investments, and develop instruments to
improve risk-pooling and contingency finance. Using better
science and methodologies to provide information on hazards,
exposure, and the vulnerabilities of people and assets can

Special attention needs
to be given to the
challenge of providing
vital concessional
finance to developing
countries that are
highly vulnerable to
climate change.
52

Global Commission on Adaptation

result in better investment decisions.
Governments, corporations, business associations, and
international organizations to develop and deploy tools and
strategies to ensure that investment decisions are climateinformed. Some governments, companies, and donors already
systematically screen their projects for exposure to climate
and natural hazards as part of standard investment appraisal
in the context of a broader commitment to sustainable
finance, for example.203 This practice should become standard
for all projects in both the public and the private sector. At
the same time, investors should develop effective strategies
to deal with emerging uncertainties associated with climate
change. These include understanding “no regrets” resilience

FIGURE 8.1

Key Sources and Users of Adaptation Finance

Governments

Businesses

Households

Tax revenue

Retained earnings

Savings

International development
assistance & climate ﬁnance

U SERS

U SERS

R E D U C E D C L I M AT E R I S K

Transfers from government
Bank credit

SOURCES

SOURCES

Payouts from insurance and other risk-pooling instruments (sovereign, meso, micro)
Capital markets (bonds, equity)
Venture capital,
private equity

Source: Authors.

approaches already exist and have been deployed, and these

2) Scale up and deploy public finance
more effectively

too need to be scaled up.

Financial authorities—typically central bank governors and

measures, decision-making under deep uncertainty,204 physical
and economic modeling, and scenario planning.205 Promising

The private and public sectors to improve and harmonize
adaptation metrics and resilience ratings systems206 to
enable stakeholders to quantify the costs and benefits
of investing in resilience and to track progress. As we
emphasized in Chapter 1, scaling up and building on efforts
to take climate risk into account and to price it—including
the financial, economic, and human costs of not managing
that risk—will increase the supply of adaptation resources
to meet the rapidly growing demand. Investments in data
and downscaled information will be critical if climate is to
be mainstreamed into how we make financial decisions

finance ministers—are responsible for government financial
decision-making and oversight of the financial system overall.
They are beginning to show leadership in the challenging
process of incorporating climate risks into both. On the public
side, this responsibility extends to analyzing and managing
climate risks on both the revenue and expenditure sides of
national budgets. In the wider financial markets, regulators
from more than 36 countries now recognize that climate
change may present macroeconomic and financial-stability
challenges and material risks for companies.207 We thus make
the following recommendations:

of all kinds.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

53

Governments to make more effective use of their budget

Financial authorities, NGOs, and banks to also help improve

processes to both increase the “adaptation quality” of

access to financial services, especially among the estimated

existing investments and to increase the amount of funding

1.7 billion people who still lack access.213 This is one of the

flowing to adaptation investments. Governments should

barriers to adaptation at the household level. If structured

consider doing more with the resources they already have by

correctly, expanded access to products such as microfinance,

improving the quality and impact of adaptation spending.

microinsurance, transfer and remittance facilities, and related

208

But they also should consider increasing the allocation of

nonfinancial support can help ensure that those most affected

public resources for climate adaptation. Such efforts at

by climate shocks have the resources to protect themselves

increasing finance should be based on rigorous, climate-smart

and recover when necessary. New innovations in digital

public investment priorities, best developed in collaboration

technology are essential to expanding financial services. For

between line ministries and finance ministries. Both traditional

example, Danish Microfinance Partners and Maj Invest are

and innovative approaches to public finance will be needed

working with local communities in 15 countries to help them

to raise public resources for adaptation. In addition to the Fiji

cope with climate impacts while increasing their access to

example of innovative fiscal policy (see Case Study 13), debt-

financial services.214

for-climate-finance swaps have been proposed as another
source of adaptation finance for national governments.209 An
example of traditional funding mechanisms involves the City
of Miami, which recently borrowed $400 million by issuing
new “Miami Forever” bonds for flood control and coastal
protection projects.210

Developed countries and other donors to increase the
amounts of international adaptation finance being provided
on concessional terms. The United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP) estimates that the annual cost of
adaptation could range from $140 to 300 billion by 2030,215
current flows of international adaptation finance fall short

National governments and international donors to increase

of the challenge. During 2015–16, global public financing

the amount of devolved funding available to local actors to

for adaptation was about $22 billion per year, of which

identify, prioritize, implement, and monitor climate adapta-

$7.4 billion was multilateral climate finance.216 (In 2018, flows

tion solutions. This involves enabling subnational authorities

from the multilateral development banks had risen to $12.9

to access and deploy financing for adaptation, as well as

billion, 217 but there are no 2018 consolidated data across all

strengthening the role that communities and households play

flows.) Clearly, scaling up and improving access to finance

in making investment decisions. Devolved finance should be

for adaptation is urgent. Successful replenishments of the

flexible, long-term, inclusive, and transparent. Two good exam-

International Development Association (IDA), and regional

ples are the dedicated National Adaptation Fund on Climate

contributions to multilateral climate funds such as the

Change (NAFCC) mechanism in India that has funded subna-

Adaptation Fund, the Least Developed Country Fund, and

tional projects211 and Grenada’s Community Climate Change

the Special Climate Change Fund, will be key. Also critical is

Adaptation Fund, which channels small grants to community

a strong replenishment of the Green Climate Fund (GCF),218

groups to implement adaptation projects.212

which would include previous contributors following the

CASE STU DY 13

Raising Funds for Adaptation Action
In 2017, Fiji introduced its Environment and Climate Adaptation Levy (ECAL), a 10 percent tax on such items
as luxury cars and yacht charters, and a 10 percent income tax on the rich. More than FJ$255 million (about
US$117 million) has been collected and spent on renewable energy, reforestation, agricultural research, disaster relief, upgraded bridges, rural roads, and many other projects to protect the country’s natural environment,
reduce its carbon footprint, and improve its ability to adapt to the impacts of climate change. This innovative
financial instrument is all the more powerful because it is used to finance an explicit, systematic, and comprehensive climate adaptation action plan.

54

Global Commission on Adaptation

and new contributors committing resources on a voluntary

3) Scale contingent finance
and insurance

basis. Special attention needs to be given to the challenge of

Developing and implementing effective disaster risk finance

providing vital concessional finance to developing countries

strategies will be essential to enable governments and com-

that are highly vulnerable to climate change but have limited

munities to respond effectively to climate change impacts.

access to finance. This category includes several smaller,

Numerous studies show the importance for recovery and

middle-income island states.219

poverty alleviation of ensuring that cash is available soon after,

leadership shown by Germany and Norway in doubling the
pledges they made during the initial resource mobilization

Developed countries and other donors to significantly
increase adaptation-related financing and improve the balance between adaptation and mitigation finance, including
through processes and mechanisms related to international
negotiations. Overall, adaptation finance has accounted for
only around a quarter of total climate finance flows in recent
years, falling far short of the estimated need, and the Paris
Agreement call for a balance between finance for adaption
and mitigation.220 Moving forward, donors should push to
ensure increased flows of adaptation finance and an improved
balance between adaptation and mitigation finance, similar to
recent commitments by the World Bank.221

to ensure that such funding reaches the most vulnerable.222
Recent IMF analysis shows that many countries may be
underinsured as they seek to balance the macroeconomic
costs and benefits of investing in risk reduction financial
instruments.223 Insurance and related risk-pooling markets
can have the added benefit of helping price climate risk, thus
enabling governments, companies, and individuals to make
better decisions. While insurance has limitations and cannot,
by itself, protect resource-strapped communities and countries from the full range of climate-related risk they face,224
there is considerable room to foster adoption of disaster risk
finance packages that include insurance and other disaster

Ministries of finance, central banks, and financial regulators to strengthen their capacity to manage climate
change impacts on public finance and on wider financial
stability. This will require strengthened fiscal modeling,
debt sustainability analysis, public expenditure reviews, and
public procurement guidelines. The new Coalition of Finance
Ministers for Climate Change Action, the GCF Readiness
Program, the NDC Partnership, and the Special Program for
Climate Resilience are all providing technical assistance to
countries in these areas and should be scaled up. The joint
International Monetary Fund (IMF)/World Bank Financial
Stability Assessment Programs (FSAPs)—which have started
to support countries in integrating comprehensive disaster
finance strategies into their macrofiscal frameworks—should
be extended to more countries. Also, the IMF should gradually mainstream climate change risk into its Article IV
consultations.

or even before, a disaster, and that mechanisms are in place

risk finance tools.
Governments to develop and implement disaster risk
finance strategies that strategically deploy multiple
instruments, including national disaster funds, social
protection programs, contingent credit lines, and sovereign
and subsovereign insurance—including insurance that is
expressly targeted to cover vulnerable people and those
living in poverty.225 For example, Kenya is already using
multiple instruments. It established the National Drought
Emergency Fund, acquired a $200 million contingent credit
line for emergencies, and implemented the Kenya Livestock
Insurance Programme (KLIP), an index-based program that
is subsidized by the government.226 Yet, recent analysis
suggests that only a small minority of developing countries
are implementing this risk-layering approach.227 Many more
countries should develop, with international support, strong
disaster risk finance strategies.
Central governments in developing countries to accelerate
efforts to deepen markets for sovereign and private
insurance and other risk finance instruments. This can be
done by strengthening regulatory and policy frameworks,
improving consumer education, deploying new technologies
that support broader insurance coverage, and creating
publicly owned insurance programs. Initiatives such as
the InsuResilience Global Partnership and the GRiF are

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

55

CA S E S T U D Y 1 4

promoting innovation to expand insurance uptake. At the
same time, for people living in poverty, insurance may
be largely unaffordable and may even increase existing
inequalities; other instruments such as climate-adapted social
safety nets or budget allocations may be a better choice for
them. Since most developing countries lack the data and
market maturity in the private sector to develop risk finance
instruments by themselves, the public sector will need to
lead. Over time, insurance premiums that are based on sound
practices and robust modeling can provide useful information
to promote better decisions about vital infrastructure and
property. Insurance can also create incentives for investing in
resilience measures.
To address moral hazard, the competent authorities to
consider leading national dialogues to clarify and codify
the conditions under which their government will and will
not cover private losses from extreme climate events.
Adequate transition periods for phasing out some government
backstops should be provided to give stakeholders time to
invest in resilience. In all countries, the role of the government
as insurer of last resort must be clarified, both to protect
countries’ national accounts and to incentivize climate-smart
choices. While the public sector must help communities
shoulder some of the risk, the perception of an unlimited

Resilience in the Private Sector
In 2018, the African Financial Alliance on Climate
Change was launched to put the financial sector
at the center of Africa’s climate agenda. This
innovative partnership aims to mobilize both
domestic and international finance for climateresilient development in Africa, including private
capital. Its goal is for Africa’s financial actors
to take a lead role in driving low-carbon and
climate-resilient action in Africa.229
It’s increasingly good business to safeguard
supply chains against climate impacts. The
Global Resource Initiative taskforce, spearheaded
by the United Kingdom, brings together private
and public sector leaders to find ways to make
a country’s international supply chains more
resilient, including through ecological resilience
to climate change. Upstream suppliers and
downstream buyers can identify production and
infrastructure vulnerabilities. Governments can
also support vulnerable suppliers to build their
capacity to manage supply chain risks.

government backstop disincentivizes private actors from
investing in their own resilience and exposes national budgets
to enormous strain. While politically difficult, the limits of the
government’s role as insurer need to be addressed.

4) Harness private capital
for resilience
The world’s more climate-aware companies are already using
their own resources to safeguard business operations and
supply chains against climate impacts (see Case Study 14).

Private capital is also increasingly seeking solutions to enable
businesses, governments, and households to adapt to climate
change. Demand will grow for climate-resilient products and
services, including new materials, engineering techniques,
early warning systems, information tools, and climate and
weather data. According to a recent survey, half of the world’s
biggest companies estimated that climate adaptation solutions could result in $236 billion in increased revenue.230

For example, the shipping line Maersk is evaluating its global

The private sector to recognize that its own climate resil-

network of ports and undertaking modifications to make them

ience depends crucially on the resilience of the communities

resilient.228 After Superstorm Sandy struck in 2012, Bloomberg

in which it is embedded. Business depends on public infra-

LP, the global provider of financial data, moved a key data

structure to stay resilient. Climate-proofed corporate facilities

center out of Manhattan to upstate New York to protect its

will be of little use if workers cannot reach the workplace,

equipment against flooding. Decisions like this will become

if suppliers cannot deliver, or if customers cannot make

more common.

purchases because of breakdowns in communications or
transportation. Greater incentives need to be created for the
private sector to join with the public sector in investing more
broadly in resilient infrastructure or nature-based solutions.
There are some nascent efforts to partner with the private

56

Global Commission on Adaptation

sector in implementing broad, city- or region-scale resilience.

approach as capacity permits. In the interim, companies

For example, the Innovative Financing and Delivery of Natural

should accelerate voluntary disclosure across all TCFD

Climate Solutions (IGNITION) program in Greater Manchester

disclosure categories.

aims to increase the city’s green infrastructure by 10 percent
by 2038 through the creation of at least €10 million worth
of projects that incentivize businesses and organizations to
invest in nature-based climate change adaption solutions.231

Businesses and governments to look for ways to work
together to create more efficient and effective blended
finance vehicles for long-term adaptation solutions.
The shift in private finance will not happen automatically.

Financial authorities to consider requiring companies and

Because private capital responds to commercially attractive,

financial institutions with potentially high exposure to

risk-adjusted returns, rules and incentives must be in place

climate risks to conduct routine analysis and disclosure.

to ensure the shift happens. The public sector will need to

Climate-risk disclosure has made important advances,

build the policy, regulatory and legal scaffolding for blended

thanks to initiatives such as the TFCD and the Sustainability

finance that is efficient, generates suitable revenue streams,

Accounting Standards Board (SASB).

232

By disclosing risk

and shares both costs and benefits.236 Public funds that

information in a comparable and transparent way, companies

help catalyze investment play a critical role, such as the

can help investors understand the risks that climate impacts

Special Climate Change Fund’s new Challenge Program on

pose to profits and help them price assets accordingly. Over

Adaptation Innovation, managed by the GEF. The program

time, companies that adopt sensible risk-reduction and

supports continuous innovation and learning on private sector

management strategies should face lower costs of capital.233

investment approaches, business models, partnerships, and

Climate risk disclosure is still voluntary in most countries, with

technologies suitable for climate adaptation.237 A second

the notable exception of France,

234

where it is mandatory. In

example is the Climate Resilience and Adaptation Finance and

some countries, like the United Kingdom, governments have

Technology-transfer facility (CRAFT) project, co-financed by

have committed to exploring mandatory disclosure.235 Without

the GEF and the Nordic Development Fund, which is an equity

it, few companies will disclose this information systematically.

investment fund designed to expand the availability of private

To better jump-start the disclosure process worldwide, the

sector technologies used in climate adaptation solutions.238

appropriate regulatory authorities in the world’s largest

Over time, as climate risks become better understood and

developed economies to consider, within 5 years, requiring

the benefits more clear, private investment in adaptation will

the disclosure of climate risks. This requirement should be

grow. Mechanisms such as land value capture—in which the

in line with the TCFD, applicable to all publicly listed entities

property value gains and avoided losses that private owners

operating in their jurisdiction, and follow a standardized

experience by investing in resilient measures are used to

reporting methodology in partnership with the private sector.

shoulder some investment costs—are worth exploring further

Governments in smaller economies may adopt a similar

and expanding where appropriate.

Greater incentives need to be created for
the private sector to join with the public
sector in investing more broadly in resilient
infrastructure.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

57

PART III

The Immediate
Imperative: A Year
of Action

The previous sections lay out in detail a bold agenda to build a more resilient world. These
actions are imperative if we want all people, especially people living on the frontlines of
climate change, and youth who will inherit the impacts of climate change, to have the
opportunity for a better future. If we act today, we can save lives, reduce risk, strengthen
economies, and protect our environment.
While these transitions will take time to fully implement, it is essential that they start with great energy. For this reason, the
Commission*—through Commissioner commitments and partnership with others—will devote the coming 15 months to drive a set of
Action Tracks that we believe are essential to jump-start the needed transitions. In some cases, these actions will involve mobilizing
political, technical, and financial support to existing initiatives; in other cases, they will entail forging new coalitions for change.
The Commission will champion this package of initiatives at the September 2019 UN Climate Action Summit and throughout
the coming Year of Action, including importantly at the Climate Adaptation Summit hosted by the Netherlands in October 2020.
They will also aim to raise the level of ambition on adaptation among countries in the lead-up to the international climate summit
(COP26) in December 2020. Through these Action Tracks, we will mobilize scaled-up action that will continue beyond the lifetime of
the Commission and realize its goals over the next 5 to 10 years.
The following Action Tracks are currently under development. Each is at a different stage of development. More detailed descriptions are available. These tracks will continue to evolve over the coming months.
We welcome all—governments at all levels, private sector entities, civil society, academia, grassroots groups, youth groups,
and all others—to join as partners in this Year of Action.

ACTION TRACK

Finance and Investment

While some countries are already making good progress

The starting point for effective adaptation—as noted in

absence of data and user-friendly tools. Technical assis-

in this area, most are not—due to lack of capacity and the

Chapter 1—is to make climate risks visible and actionable to

tance will be provided to all countries requesting support,

public and private investors.

and a coalition of front-runner countries will be identified

INITIATIVES:

climate risk into all aspects of national fiscal and financial

as living laboratories and mentors. The goal is to integrate

• Expand climate-resilient fiscal and financial policy. In

partnership with the IMF, World Bank, and United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP), we will support the work
of the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action, the
Vulnerable 20 Group of Ministers of Finance of the Climate
Vulnerable Forum (V20), and others to create and apply
new climate risk assessment and resource allocation
methodologies, ranging from macroeconomic stress-testing to climate screening of all government expenditures.

planning and decision-making.

• Make climate risks visible in private financial markets.
We will support the Coalition for Climate Resilient

Investment (CCRI), a private sector and UK-led coalition
with Willis Towers Watson, the World Economic Forum,
and over a dozen other partners, as it develops and pilots
to better price climate and systemic risks in large-scale
infrastructure investments in several countries over

* In the following paragraphs we use the pronoun “we” to refer to individual or groups of Commissioners, ActionTtrack partners, and managing partners as the ones
carrying forward commitments to action—not all members of the Commission or the Commission as whole.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

59

the coming year. This will make climate risks explicit in
financial decision-making and transform how infrastruc-

• Expand access to climate-informed digital advisory

services. In partnership with the German Federal Ministry

ture investment decisions are made. The initiative will

for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), the

facilitate a global effort to build consensus on metrics

World Food Programme, and several others, we will help

and standards for resilience, across sectors, regions, and

expand access to information on weather and seasonal

investment types.

forecasts, pest and disease early warning, digital soil

• Deepen economic understanding of adaptation. While
there is a growing body of economic research on adaptation, this area has not generally been translated into
practical tools to inform decision-makers. Thus, in support
of the above 2 initiatives, the Managing Partners of the
Commission, World Bank, the Grantham Research Institute,
and other organizations will convene a distinguished

maps, and information on adaptive production practices.
Through these efforts, we will support the spread of digital
advisory services for small-scale food producers to help
them make adaptation-related decisions in the face of a
changing climate.

• Expand small-scale food producers’ access to

insurance, finance, markets, adaptive technologies,

panel across academia, practitioners, and policymakers to

and agroecological practices to build resilience.

identify and address the research gaps, issuing a synthetic

In partnership with the BMZ, the UK Department for

report collating emerging findings, and promote the trans-

International Development, the GEF, UNDP, the Alliance

lation of these findings into decision-maker friendly tools

for Green Revolution in Africa, Adaptation of African

and methods.

Agriculture Initiative, the InsuResilience Global Partnership,
and other partners, we will scale access to insurance,

ACTION TRACK

Food Security and Agriculture
As described in Chapter 2, food security is massively threatened by climate change, as are the livelihoods of hundreds of
millions of farmers and their families. The Commission calls
for a large-scale, international mobilization over the coming

finance, markets for climate-resilient crops, fish and
livestock, and social protection for small-scale food
producers and cooperatives to aid them in managing
risks, while increasing incomes. We will support expanded
access to and use of adaptive technologies and
agroecological practices that build resilience of farms and
ecosystems.

decade to deliver improved incomes, ecologically sustainable
food systems, and resilience for 300 million small-scale food

ACTION TRACK

producers. This goal requires sharp increases in agricultural
research and a step change in access to innovations, finance,

Nature-Based Solutions

and information for small-scale producers. The Commission

Harnessing the power of nature to make people, places, and

will give immediate attention to the following:

ecosystems more resilient to climate change, as highlighted

INITIATIVES:

• Double the scale of agricultural research through the

CGIAR System. We will work with the CGIAR System to
fully embed climate change in every aspect of its new
10-year strategy and support accelerated implementation
of the CGIAR Two Degree Initiative, which aims to help
small-scale food producers across the globe adapt their
farming systems, livelihoods, and landscapes to weather
extremes, as well as to put food systems on a low-

in Chapter 3, is essential. The Commission calls for climate
risks to be reduced for hundreds of millions of people through
nature-based solutions and increased ecological resilience
by 2030. This will require leadership from many stakeholders:
national governments, local governments, nongovernmental
organizations, civil society, companies, finance institutions,
youth, and more.

INITIATIVE:

• Mobilizing national, local, and private sector leadership

emissions development pathway. The Commission will

for nature-based solutions. In partnership with Canada

support CGIAR reforms under consideration to ensure

and others, we will mobilize political and private sector

research is firmly demand-led and reaches small-scale

leadership to implement large-scale, coordinated

food producers as quickly as possible.

approaches to nature-based solutions to minimize climate
risks and maximize economic, social, and environmental

60

Global Commission on Adaptation

benefits, leveraging the differential capacities of

the Resilient Shift, the Cities for Forests Network, and

national, local, and private sector actors. We will work

leading cities to advance integrated urban water resilience

with committed countries to strengthen policies, data

planning and investment to address critical vulnerabilities

and information, initiatives, and finance to protect the

in infrastructure and management, building water security

environment and reduce climate risk. In partnership with

for growing urban populations and increasingly water-

city networks and the Cities and Water Action Tracks,

stressed cities. Cities will be supported to diagnose water

we will also mobilize cities to implement nature-based

risks and to design and upgrade their water systems for

solutions that benefit a large proportion of the population,

resilience through investments in managing water use,

especially the most vulnerable, as part of citywide

diversified supply, reuse and recycling, and mitigating

adaptation and resilience strategies to combat extreme

extreme water events.

heat, urban flooding, sea level rise, and water shortages.
Finally, we will seek to mobilize commitments from
industry leaders and work with them to accelerate the use
of nature-based solutions in business operations.

ACTION TRACK

Resilient Cities
Chapter 5 calls for redoubled efforts to build more resilient

ACTION TRACK

and equitable cities. Toward that end, the Commission calls

Water

for all cities to put in place inclusive polices, projects, and

The effects of climate change will most immediately and

building on the initiatives below as well as those in other

acutely be expressed through water, as shown in Chapter

Action Tracks.

structures that will deliver climate-resilient cities by 2030,

4. We must urgently invest in strengthening the resilience
of natural freshwater and critical human water systems to
reduce risks for billions of people facing high water stress and
for those whose lives are impacted by floods and droughts.

INITIATIVES:

•

INITIATIVES:

• Expand national and international investment in

climate-resilient cities. In collaboration with city networks,
the Financing Sustainable Cities Initiative, the GEF, and
other efforts, we will mobilize increased financial flows

Expand support for planning and financing of climate

for urban resilience in developing countries by supporting

adaptation in river and groundwater basins. With the

cities in developing appropriate financial models for

World Bank, the Government of the Netherlands and

adaptation and supporting cities in preparing bankable

others, we will launch the global Resilient Basins Initiative

adaptation projects. We will help develop a strong business

to support planning and financing of climate adaptation

case to national governments for the importance of

and resilience measures in river and groundwater basins.

investing in resilience at the city level, working in close

The initiative will operate at basin scale in order to ensure

partnership with the Coalition on Urban Transitions.

the ecological integrity of natural freshwater systems and
to address the water security and resilience needs for all
water-dependent sectors—agriculture, energy, industry,
cities, and nature. Priority will be given to strengthening
natural defenses and ecological resilience, investing in
green and gray infrastructure to mitigate floods, regulate
water flows and increase storage capacity, resolve tradeoffs among sectors, and improve water use efficiency,
particularly in agriculture.

• Support a network of cities to develop and implement

• Building the climate resilience of the urban poor. In
partnership with local communities and civil society

actors, UN Habitat, Shack/Slum Dwellers International,
and others, we will work to put people living in poverty at
the center of urban adaptation by contributing to a global
analysis that identifies communities at risk (including
informal settlements) to climate impacts. We will use this
hotspot mapping and associated tools to engage urban
networks and city and national governments to identify
and strengthen resilience. We will do so by identifying

more resilient urban water systems. We will work with

and preparing priority projects and establishing funding

the World Bank, the Government of the Netherlands,

streams and work plans to support climate adaptation in
an equitable and inclusive manner, driven by the priorities
of urban people living in poverty.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

61

ACTION TRACK

ACTION TRACK

Locally Led Action

Infrastructure

People and communities on the frontlines of climate change

As explained in Chapter 6, climate resilience needs to be

are often the most active and innovative in developing adapta-

integrated into all infrastructure assets and systems through-

tion solutions. Yet, too often, they lack access to the resources

out their lifecycles. The Commission seeks to ensure that,

and power needed to implement solutions. To address this

by 2025, all significant new and retrofit infrastructure is

imbalance, the Commission calls for significant increases in

climate-resilient, by systematically mainstreaming climate

the volume of devolved and decentralized funding available

resilience into infrastructure planning, design, operation, and

to local governments, community-based organizations, and

maintenance.

others working at the local level to identify, prioritize, implement, and monitor climate adaptation solutions.

INITIATIVE:

•

INITIATIVES:

• Build and strengthen partnerships for climate-resilient

infrastructure by leveraging international best practices

Mobilize funder and government commitments to expand

and tailoring them to local conditions. We will work with

resources and support for locally led action and in-coun-

national governments, public institutions, and the private

try action. We will collaborate with Asian Development

sector to support mainstreaming climate resilience into

Bank, UNDP, the Adaptation Fund, and other international

infrastructure policy through peer-learning and targeted

climate funders and multi-lateral organizations, as well as

technical assistance. This will be based on strong under-

with governments, such as the Least Developed Countries

standing of countries’ infrastructure priorities, context,

(LDC) Group and civil society such as Shack/Slum Dwellers

and credible data on climate risks. Focal areas include

International, BRAC, and others to expand the amount of

screening projects for exposure to climate risks, integrating

funding available for devolved and decentralized adapta-

adaptation into the planning and delivery of infrastructure

tion action. We will also seek to improve the quality of the

networks, improving design standards, updating pro-

funding available so that it is more coordinated, flexible,

curement policies, and developing financing strategies

empowering, long-term, risk-tolerant, inclusive, transpar-

to mobilize additional private and public investment.

ent, and accountable both to communities and investors.

These efforts will be undertaken collaboratively with

Further, we will work with national governments, civil

other relevant initiatives such as the Coalition for Disaster

society, and other partners committed to scaling up locally

Resilient Infrastructure (convened by India) and the

led adaptation in 50 countries to put in place or strengthen

Coalition for Climate Resilient Investment (convened by the

inclusive policies and structures, including those related to

United Kingdom).

procurement, and capabilities to enable devolved decision-making on adaptation investment and action among
local governments, community-based organizations, civil
society organizations, and federations. A framework for
implementing and monitoring locally led action will be
developed in collaboration with partners to track progress
in devolving finance and its impact.

• Expand uptake of risk finance and insurance mecha-

nisms for resilient infrastructure. Through this initiative,
we will ensure rapid recovery after extreme weather events
and facilitate private investment in resilient infrastructure,
as part of financial protection strategies. Financial protection strategies—combining financial reserves, prearranged
credit, and insurance—can support resilience of critical
infrastructure by improving risk assessment, encouraging
proactive risk reduction, and enabling more rapid recovery
after a disaster. In collaboration with the InsuResillience
Global Partnership and Global Risk Financing Facility, we
will expand existing disaster risk finance and insurance
programs to strengthen resilience of critical infrastructure.

62

Global Commission on Adaptation

• Strengthen national social protection systems and the

ACTION TRACK

Preventing Disasters

coherence of disaster management and adaptation

A rapid scale-up in investment will be needed across the risk

Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, and

chain to improve people’s ability to act ahead of extreme

others, we will support governments that integrate climate

weather events, reduce deaths and human suffering, and

risks and extreme events into social protection policies to

lessen economic impacts, as outlined in Chapter 7. We aim to

help low-income communities bounce back more quickly

support this vision in a way that ensures vulnerable and mar-

following disasters and strengthen social protection

ginalized communities are not left behind and by leveraging

programs to ensure that the people most vulnerable to

the existing global architecture for disaster risk management,

climate change are prioritized. Together with UNDRR and

based on the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.

International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent

The Action Track will be a key delivery mechanism for the

Societies, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and

Risk-Informed Early Action Partnership (REAP).

Recovery, and others, we will also support 50 countries to

policies. In partnership with the World Food Programme,

put in place coherent climate change and disaster regula-

INITIATIVES:

• Scale-up investment in people-centered early warning

systems. This initiative focuses on early warning, including
heat early warning systems, that prioritizes vulnerable members of society. We will work with the World
Meteorological Organization, International Federation of

tory frameworks and a common implementation agenda
for their disaster risk management and climate change
adaptation policies, which are often developed by different
ministries, so that these are working in concert to help
people adapt to new climate extremes.

Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Global Facility

Collectively, these Action Tracks build on this report’s rec-

for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, the United Nations

ommendations, as well as extensive input from our partners,

Development Programme, and others to systematically link

creating a comprehensive platform for urgent, bold, and

investments in national hydrological and meteorological

inclusive adaptation. The Action Tracks will continue to

services with investments in effective people-centered

evolve and expand as we build further momentum during the

early action, with a focus on increasing the number of

Year of Action. Each Action Track will develop a monitoring

early warning systems in least developed countries and

and accountability framework to track progress toward the

small island developing states. We will support action

overarching goal. We aim to catalyze greater adaptation action

to put in place heat early warning systems in the most

beyond the lifetime of the Commission, which will be tracked

vulnerable regions to help ensure that millions more people

by the Commission’s Managing Partners.

can protect themselves from heat waves in collaboration
with national meteorological services, ministries of health,
community health workers, volunteers, urban planners, and
city governments.

We invite collaboration from all segments of society to join us
in urgently taking this agenda forward to achieve a vision for a
stronger, safer, and thriving world.

• Expand forecast-based financing and action in the

humanitarian sector. Forecast-based financing is an
innovation that predeploys resources in advance of an
extreme event based on agreed early action plans, thereby
saving lives, reducing damage, and speeding up recovery.
We will work with the International Federation of Red Cross
and Red Crescent Societies, World Food Programme,
and others to expand this practice to at least 20 vulnerable countries.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

63

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The Commission is grateful to the many organizations, partners, researchers, and individuals that have provided input, conducted
research, and made comments or other substantial contributions to this report. They are not responsible for the accuracy, content,
findings, or recommendations. This report does not necessarily reflect their views or those of the organizations they represent.

REPORT AUTHORS
Lead Authors: Manish Bapna (report team lead), Carter
Brandon, Christina Chan, Anand Patwardhan, Barney Dickson

Chapter Authors
Food Security & Smallholder Livelihoods: Tim Searchinger,

Managing Partners Core Report Team: Andrew Steer,

Molly Brown, Bruce Campbell, Rebecca Carter, Phil Thornton

Patrick Verkooijen, Jessica Arriens, John Carey, Talia

Natural Environment: Graham Wynne, Jonathan Cook,
Julie Greenwalt
Water: Greg Browder, Betsy Otto
Cities and Urban Areas: Anjali Mahendra,
Jonathan Cook, Jillian Du
Infrastructure: Michael Mullan, Elina Väänänen

Chorover, Tamara Coger, Ani Dasgupta, Milan Brahmbhatt,
Helen Ding, Erin Gray, Dominic Molloy, Michael Oko,
Laura Scheske, Isabella Suarez, Crystal Upperman,
Nataniel Warszawski
Graphics, Design, Copyediting: Carni Klirs, Bill Dugan, Alex
Martin, Romain Warnault; Neal Cox and MillerCox Design
Core Team Supporting Co-chair Kristalina Georgieva:
John Roome, Marcelo Mena, Arame Tall, Margaret Arnold,

Disaster Risk Management: Anand Patwardhan,

Tobias Baedeker, Benoit Blarel, Benoit Bosquet, Ana Bucher,

Julie Arrighi, Carina Bachofen, Erin Coughlan, Kirsten Hagon,

Richard Damania, Julie Dana, Erick Fernandez, Marc Forni,

Britta Horstmann, Tessa Kelly, Jun Rentschler,

Stéphane Hallegatte, Niels Holm-Nielsen, Karin Kemper,

Alanna Simpson, Maarten van Aalst

Sameh Naguib Wahba, Jun Rentschler, Jennifer Sara,

Financing Adaptation: Leonardo Martinez-Diaz,
Carter Brandon, Dominic Molloy, Michael Westphal
The Immediate Imperative: Cristina Rumbaitis del Rio,
Britta Horstmann, Fred Boltz, Carter Brandon, Bruce Campbell,

Alanna Simpson, Vladimir Stenek, Fiona Stewart,
Martien Van Nieuwkoop, Juergen Voegele
Core Team Supporting Co-chair Bill Gates: Rodger Voorhies,
James Birch, Melinda Belisle, Stanley Wood

Jonathan Cook, Ani Dasgupta, Julie Greenwalt,

The Global Commission on Adaptation is also deeply grateful

Nisha Krishnan, Anjali Mahendra, David Mfitumukiza,

to all the teams of individuals supporting our Commissioners

Michael Mullan, Betsy Otto, Seth Schultz, Elina Väänänen,

who provided expert guidance, input, and support on the

Graham Wynne

report structure and content.
Correspondence on the report should be directed to
christina.chan@wri.org and manish.bapna@wri.org.

64

Global Commission on Adaptation

ADVISORS TO THE GLOBAL COMMISSION ON ADAPTATION
Advisors to the Global Commission on Adaptation provide guidance on issues, including the technical content of this report, and
identify and engage with partners. Advisors offer support in their individual capacity. The contents and recommendations of the
report do not necessarily reflect their views or those of the organizations they represent.

Xavier Altamirano, Secretary, Fundación Horizonte Ciudadano;
Corporación Capital Biodiversidad

Youssef Nassef, Director, Adaptation Program, United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change

Rosina M. Bierbaum, Professor, School for Environment and
Sustainability, University of Michigan, and School of Public Policy,
University of Maryland

Carlos Nobre, Chair, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme

Fatima Denton, Director, United Nations University Institute for Natural
Resources in Africa

Frank Rijsberman, Director-General, Global Green Growth Institute

Ismahane Elouafi, Director General, International Center for Biosaline
Agriculture

Jyoti Kirit Parikh, Executive Director, Integrated Research and Action
for Development

Debra Roberts, Head of the Sustainable and Resilient City Initiatives
Unit, eThekwini Municipality, Durban, South Africa

Shenggen Fan, Director General, International Food Policy Research
Institute

John Roome, Senior Director for Climate Change, World Bank (through
June 2019). Currently, South Asia Regional Director for Sustainable
Development, World Bank.

Rob Horsch, Deputy Director, Agricultural Research and Development,
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Jeffrey David Sachs, University Professor and Director, Center for
Sustainable Development, Columbia University

Blanca Jiménez Cisneros, Director of the Division of Water Sciences,
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

Lansana Gagny Sakho, Director General, Office National de
l’Assainissement du Sénégal

Pavel Kabat, Chief Scientist, Director Research, World Meteorological
Organization

Oyun Sanjaasuren, Director of External Affairs, Green Climate Fund

David Lobell, Director, Center on Food Security and the Environment

Judi Wangalwa Wakhungu, Ambassador to the French Republic,
Portugal, Serbia & Holy See, Government of Kenya

David Nabarro, Professor, Institute of Global Health Innovation,
Imperial College London

RESEARCH PARTNERS
The following individuals and organizations developed background papers that informed the report. The background papers will
be available on the Commission website. Additional authors not listed here may have been involved in the drafting of background
papers. Some background paper titles may change upon publication.

FOOD SECURITY AND SMALLHOLDER
LIVELIHOODS

Global Food Security under Climate Change: Outlook and

Achieving Adaptation through Climate Smart Landscapes:

Food Policy Research Institute, IFPRI); Elizabeth Bryan (IFPRI);

Integrating Food Security, Water, Energy and Biodiversity:

Claudia Ringler (IFPRI); Nicola Cenacchi (IFPRI)

Adaptative Responses: Alessandro de Pinto (International

Seth Shames (Ecoagriculture Partners); Sara J. Scherr
(Ecoagriculture Partners)

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

65

Rural Livelihoods, Food Security and Rural Transformation

INFRASTRUCTURE

under Climate Change: Philip Thornton (International Livestock

Adaptation of Infrastructure Systems: Jim Hall (Environmental

Research Institute); Ana Maria Loboguerrero (Centro

Change Institute, ECI); Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts (Vrije Universiteit

Internacional de Agricultura Tropical); Bruce Campbell (CGIAR

Amsterdam); Bilal M. Ayyub (University of Maryland); Stéphane

Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food

Hallegatte (World Bank); Mark Harvey (UK Department for

Security); K.S. Kavi Kumar (Madras School of Economics);

International Development); Xi Hu (Harvard Law School); Elco

Leida Mercado (Centro Agronómico Tropical de Investigación

Koks (ECI); Caroline Lee (International Energy Agency); Xiawei

y Enseñanza); Sheona Shackleton (African Climate and

Liao (ECI); Michael Mullan (Global Center on Adaptation);

Development Initiative)

Raghav Pant (ECI); Amelie Paszkowski (ECI); Julie Rozenberg

The Contribution of Agroecological Approaches to Realizing
Climate-Resilient Agriculture: Fergus Sinclair (World
Agroforestry Centre; Bangor University); Alexander Wezel
(Institut Supérieur d’Agriculture Rhone-Alpes, ISARA-Lyon);
Cheikh Mbow (START-International); Susan Chomba (World
Agroforestry Centre); Valentina Robiglio (World Agroforestry
Centre); Rhett Harrison (World Agroforestry Center)

NATURAL ENVIRONMENT
Role of Natural Environment in Adaptation: Valerie Kapos
(United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation
Monitoring Centre, UNEP-WCMC); Sylvia Wicander (UNEPWCMC); Tânia Salvaterra (UNEP-WCMC); Charlotte Hicks
(UNEP-WCMC); Katie Dawkins (UNEP-WCMC)

WATER

(World Bank); Fulai Sheng (United Nations Environment
Programme, UNEP); Vladimir Stenek (International Finance
Corporation); Scott Thacker (UN Office for Project Services);
Elina Väänänen (Global Center on Adaptation); Lola Vallejo
(Institute of Sustainable Development and International
Relations); Ted I.E. Veldkamp (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam);
Michelle van Vliet (Wageningen University); Yoshihide Wada
(International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis); Philip
Ward (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Graham Watkins
(Interamerican Development Bank); Conrad Zorn (ECI)
Measuring and Valuing Adaptation to Climate Change: Gavin
Templeton (Macquarie Group Ltd.)
Protecting the Installed, Networked Base of Global
Infrastructure: Brooks Preston (Macquarie Group Ltd.)

Quenching Adaptation’s Thirst: Accelerating the Convergence

FINANCE

between Water and Climate Change: Mark Smith (International

All Is Not Green: Climate Change Adaptation and Small

Water Management Institute, IWMI); John H. Matthews

Business Resilience in Low- and Middle-Income Countries:

(Alliance for Global Water Adaptation); Luna Bharati (IWMI);

Muhammed Patel (Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies, TIPS);

Edoardo Borgomeo (IWMI); Matthew McCartney (IWMI); Alex

Shakespear Mudombi (TIPS); Gaylor Montmasson-Clair (TIPS);

Mauroner (Alliance for Global Water Adaptation); Alan Nicol

Sasha Jattansingh (Caribbean Natural Resources Institute,

(IWMI); Diego Rodriguez (World Bank); Claudia Sadoff (IWMI);

CANARI); Ainka Granderson (CANARI)

Diana Suhardiman (IWMI); Ingrid Timboe (Alliance for Global
Water Adaptation)

Blended Finance for Adaptation: Macquarie Group Ltd.

CITIES & URBAN AREAS

Broken Connections and Systemic Barriers: Overcoming the

Unlocking the Potential for Transformative Climate Adaptation
in Cities: Eric Chu (University of California, Davis); Anna
Brown (The Nature Conservancy); Kavya Michael (The
Energy and Resources Institute); Jillian Du (World Resources
Institute, WRI); Shuaib Lwasa (Makerere University); Anjali
Mahendra (WRI)

Challenge of the “Missing Middle” in Adaptation Finance:
Mandy Barnett (South African National Biodiversity Institute);
Kulthoum Omari-Motsumi (Africa Adaptation Initiative); Liane
Schalatek (Heinrich Boell Foundation)
Delivering Finance Today for the Climate-Resilient Society of
Tomorrow: Alan Miller (UNEP Finance Initiative); Stacey Swann
(Climate Finance Advisors); Andrew Eil (Climate Finance
Advisors); Sheldon Cheng (Climate Finance Advisors)

66

Global Commission on Adaptation

Insurance for Climate Adaptation: Opportunities and

Climate Change Adaptation by Individuals and Households: A

Limitations: Paula Jarzabkowski (Cass Business School, City,

Psychological Perspective: Anne van Valkengoed (University of

University of London & University of Queensland); Konstantinos

Groningen); Linda Steg (University of Groningen)

Chalkias (University of London); Daniel Clarke (Centre for
Disaster Protection); Ekhosuehi Iyahen (Insurance Development
Forum); Daniel Stadtmueller (InsuResilience Global Partnership);
Astrid Zwick (InsuResilience Global Partnership);

Climate Resilience through Social Protection: Arun Agrawal
(University of Michigan); Janna Tenzing (International
Institute for Environment and Development, IIED); Nanki Kaur
(International Center for Integrated Mountain Development);

The Climate-Resilient Company: Understanding Risk and Driving

Clare Shakya (IIED); Andrew Norton (IIED); Cecilia Costella

Resilience across Global Supply Chains and within Frontline

(Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre)

Communities: Edward Cameron (World Economic Forum)

Gender-Transformative Climate Change Adaptation: Advancing

The Role of Domestic Budgets in Financing Adaptation:

Social Equity: Bernadette Resurrección (SEI); Beth A. Bee

Stephanie Allan (Action on Climate Today); Aditya V. Bahadur

(University of North Carolina); Irene Dankelman (Women’s

(Action on Climate Today); Shivaranjani Venkatramani (Action

Environment and Development Organisation); Mou Haldar

on Climate Today); Vidya Soundarajan (Action on Climate

(Christian Commission for Development in Bangladesh);

Today); Cristina Rumbaitis del Rio (Action on Climate Today)

Catherine P. McMullen (SEI); Clara Mi Young Park (FAO)

Tracking Adaptation Finance Flows: A Snapshot of Global

Health System Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change:

Adaptation Investment and Tracking Methods: Morgan

Kristie L. Ebi (University of Washington); Peter Berry

Richmond (Climate Policy Initiative, CPI); Chavi Meattle

(Health Canada); Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum (World Health

(CPI); Valerio Micale (CPI); Padraig Oliver (CPI); Rajashree

Organization); Gueladio Cisse (Swiss Tropical Research

Padmanabhi (CPI)

Institute); Jeremy J. Hess (University of Washington); Nicholas
Ogden (Public Health Agency of Canada)

CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES
Adapt for Our Future: Joshua Amponsem (Green Africa

Local Action and Community-Based Adaptation: David

Youth Organization); Deepal Doshi (United Nations University

Mfitumukiza (Makerere University); Yunus Arikan (Local

Institute for Environment and Human Security, UNU-EHS);

Governments for Sustainability); Anne Hammill (International

Arturo Italo Salazar Toledo (Jóvenes Peruanos Frente al

Institute for Sustainable Development); Saleemul Huq

Cambio Climático); Lorina Schudel (UNU-EHS); Sandra Delali

(International Centre for Climate Change and Development);

Kemeh (Africa Good Governance Network)

Arghya Sinha Roy (Asian Development Bank); Belay Simane

Adaptation as a Global Public Good: Understanding and

(Addis Ababa University)

Managing Transboundary Climate Risks: Rebecca Nadin

Making Peace with Climate: Louise van Schaik (Clingendael);

(Overseas Development Institute, ODI); Sarah Opitz Stapleton

Camilla Born (E3G); Elizabeth Sellwood (UNEP); Sophie de

(ODI); Magnus Benzie (Stockholm Environmental Institute,

Bruin (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

SEI); Kevin Adams (SEI); SVRK Prabahar (Institute for Global
Environmental Strategies)

Scaling Climate Services to Enable Effective Adaptation
Action: James Hansen (International Research Institute for

Adaptation Metrics: Current Landscape and Evolving Practices:

Climate and Society, IRI); John Furlow (IRI); Lisa Goddard (IRI);

Timo Leiter (London School of Economics); Anne Olhoff

Hannah Nissan (IRI); Cathy Vaughan (IRI); Alison Rose (IRI);

(Technical University of Denmark); Rima Al Azar (Food and

Francesco Fiondella (IRI); Mélody Braun (IRI); Anna Steynor

Agriculture Organization); Vicki Barmby (City of Melbourne);

(IRI); Christopher Jack (IRI); Paul Chinowsky (IRI); Madeleine

Dennis Bours (Global Environment Facility); Viviane Wei

Thomson (IRI); Walter Baethgen (IRI); Tufa Dinku (IRI); Asrat

Chen Clement (World Bank); Thomas William Dale (Technical

Yirgu Senato (IRI); Do Minh Phuong (IRI); Saleemul Huq

University of Denmark); Craig Davies (European Bank for

(International Centre for Climate Change and Development);

Reconstruction and Development); Heather Jacobs (Food and

Ousmane Ndiaye (National Civil Aviation and Meteorology

Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO)

Service in Senegal, ANACIM)

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

67

ACTION TRACK PARTNERS
The following partners have provided technical guidance and mobilized financial or other resources to advance the Action Tracks.
They will play a role in implementing the Action Tracks initiatives during the Year of Action and beyond. The Managing Partners,
Global Center on Adaptation and World Resources Institute, have co-developed these Action Tracks and will support
implementation through partners during the Year of Action. Additional partners are welcome to join the movement.

ACTION TRACK: Finance and Investment

ACTION TRACK: Food and Agriculture

• Africa Adaptation Initiative
• African Development Bank
• Coalition for Climate Resilient Investment
• Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action
• Grantham Research Institute for Climate Change and

• Adaptation of African Agriculture Initiative
• African Development Bank
• The Alliance for Green Revolution in Africa
• Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research
• Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
• BRAC
• CAB International (CABI)
• CGIAR
• DSM
• Esoko

the Environment

• UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy
• United Nations Development Programme
• Vulnerable 20 (V20) Group of Ministers of Finance
of the Climate Vulnerable Forum

• World Bank

• German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation
and Development (BMZ)

• Global Environment Facility
• InsuResilience Global Partnership
• International Fund for Agricultural Development
• International Research Institute for Climate and Society,
Columbia University

• Southern African Confederation of Agricultural Unions
• UK Department for International Development
• United Nations Development Programme
• World Bank
• World Food Programme
• World Meteorological Organization

68

Global Commission on Adaptation

ACTION TRACK: Water

ACTION TRACK: Infrastructure

• Cities for Forests Network
• Government of Bangladesh
• Government of Netherlands
• Resilience Shift
• World Bank

• Government of Canada
• Global Environment Facility
• United Nations Environment Programme

• African Development Bank
• Coalition for Climate Resilient Investment
• Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure
• Global Risk Financing Facility
• Government of the Netherlands
• InsuResilience Global Partnership
• Macquarie Group Ltd.
• Oxford University Environmental Change Institute
• United Nations Environment Programme
• United Nations Office for Project Services

ACTION TRACK: Resilient Cities

ACTION TRACK: Preventing Disasters

• C40
• The Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy
• Global Environment Facility
• Shack/Slum Dwellers International
• UN-Habitat
• United Nations Development Programme

• African Development Bank
• International Federation of Red Cross and

ACTION TRACK: Nature-Based Solutions

ACTION TRACK: Locally Led Action

Red Crescent Societies

• United Nations Development Programme
• United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
• World Bank
• World Food Programme
• World Meteorological Organization

• Adaptation Fund
• Asian Development Bank
• BRAC
• Huairou Commission
• International Centre for Climate and Development
• International Institute for Environment and Development
• Shack/Slum Dwellers International
• United Nations Development Programme

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

69

FUNDERS
The Global Commission is grateful to the following
governments and organizations for their financial support:
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

MANAGING PARTNERS:
WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE
World Resources Institute is a global research organization
that addresses challenges at the nexus of the environment,

Government of Canada

economy and human well-being. WRI pursues adaptation

Government of Denmark

strategies to assist governments, civil society and the private

Government of Germany
Government of the Netherlands
Government of the United Kingdom

sector to develop solutions in line with the scale and scope
of climate change, and to support and engage vulnerable
populations. The Global Commission is indebted to current
and former staff for their support to the Global Commission:
Andrew Steer, Manish Bapna, Christina Chan, Abraar Ahmad,
Arivudai Nambi Appadurai, Jessica Arriens, Milan Brahmbhatt,
Carter Brandon, Rebecca Carter, Talia Chorover, Tamara Coger,
Johnathan Cook, Helen Ding, Ayesha Dinshaw, Jillian Du, Tyler
Ferdinand, Jessica Frech, Erin Gray, Nisha Krishnan, Kelsey
Lopez, Lawrence MacDonald, Anjali Mahendra, Leonardo
Martinez-Diaz, Michael Oko, Betsy Otto, Anand Patwardhan,
Emma Pearlstone, Cristina Rumbaitis del Rio, Tim Searchinger,
Nate Shelter, Isabella Suarez, Crystal Upperman, Jayson
Van Beusichem, Emily van Bronkhorst, Nataniel Warszawski,
Michael Westphal, and Graham Wynne.

THE GLOBAL CENTER ON ADAPTATION
The Global Center on Adaptation is an international
organization, hosted by the Netherlands government,
strategically focusing on bridging gaps in knowledge, serving
as a resource for technical expertise, and helping to guide
investments in adaptation solutions. Broadly, its mission
is to accelerate knowledge-sharing, investments in people,
and financing of solutions to ensure that building resilience
becomes a higher priority at all levels of decision-making. The
Global Commission is indebted to current and former staff for
their support to the Global Commission: Patrick Verkooijen,
Barney Dickson, Al Anstey, Fred Boltz, Bruce Campbell, Alex
Gee, Mike Girling, Julie Greenwalt, Britta Horstmann, Imogen
Jacques, Richard Klein, Paul Langeveld, David Mfitumukiza,
Dominic Molloy, Michael Mullan, Laura Scheske, Seth Schultz,
Herman Sips, Thijs Stoffelen, Elina Väänänen, Michel van
Winden, and William Walter.

70

Global Commission on Adaptation

ACRONYMS
• African Development Bank Group (AfDB)
• Africa Disaster Risks Financing (ADRiFi)
• Africa Risk Capacity (ARC)
• Asian Coalition for Community Action (ACCA)
• Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC)
• Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR)
• Climate Resilience and Adaptation Finance and

• Least developed countries (LDCs)
• Multilateral development banks (MDBs)
• National Adaptation Fund on Climate Change (NAFCC)
• National adaptation plans (NAPs)
• Nationally determined contributions (NDCs)
• North-East Asia Clean Air Partnership (NEACAP)
• Organisation for Economic Co-operation and

• Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS)
• Coalition for Climate Resilient Investment (CCRI)
• Contingent emergency response component (CERC)
• Community-driven development (CDD)
• Disaster Mitigation and Adaptation Fund (DMAF)
• Environment and Climate Adaptation Levy (ECAL)
• Financial Stability Assessment Programs (FSAPs)
• Food and Agriculture Organization of the United

• Payments for ecosystem services (PES)
• Risk-Informed Early Action Partnership (REAP)
• Science Information Network (CIESIN)
• Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
• Small island developing states (SIDS)
• Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB)
• Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
• Task Force on Climate-Related Financial

• Forecast-based financing (FbF)
• Geographic information system (GIS)
• German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and

• Uganda Red Cross Society (URC)
• United Nations Convention to Combat

Technology-transfer facility (CRAFT)

Nations (FAO)

Development (BMZ)

• Global Environment Facility (GEF)
• Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)
• Global Risk Financing Facility (GRiF)
• Green Climate Fund (GCF)
• Health National Adaptation Plan (H-NAP)
• Innovative Financing and Delivery of Natural Climate
Solutions (IGNITION)

•
• International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
• International Monetary Fund (IMF)
• Kenya Livestock Insurance Programme (KLIP)
International Development Association (IDA)

Development (OECD)

Disclosures (TCFD)

Desertification (UNCCD)

• United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)
• United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
• United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC)

• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,
Conference of the Parties (COP)

• United Nations International Strategy for Disaster
Reduction (UNDRR)

• Vulnerable 20 Group of Ministers of Finance of the Climate
Vulnerable Forum (V20)

• West Africa Coastal Areas Management Program (WACA)
• World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

71

ENDNOTES
1.

van Oldenborgh, G.J., Van Der Wiel, K., Sebastian, A., Singh, R.,
Arrighi, J., Otto, F., Haustein, K., Li, S., Vecchi, G., and Cullen, H.
2017. “Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey,
August 2017.” Environmental Research Letters 12:124009.

2.

Christidis, N., Betts, R.A, and Stott, P.A. “The Extremely Wet March
of 2017 in Peru.” 2018. Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society. 99(12). http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2017a/ch8_
EEEof2017_Christidis.pdf.

3.

Imada, Y., Watanabe, M., Kawase, H., Shiogama, H., and Arai, M.
2019. “The July 2018 High Temperature Event in Japan Could
Not Have Happened without Human-Induced Global Warming.”
SOLA 15A: 8–12. https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/suola/
advpub/0/advpub_15A-002/_article/-char/en.

4.

Kirchmeier‐Young, M.C., Gillett, N.P., Zwiers, F.W., Cannon, A.J.,
and Anslow, F.S. 2019. “Attribution of the Influence of Human‐
Induced Climate Change on an Extreme Fire Season.” Earth’s
Future 7(1): 2–10.

5.

Borunda, A. 2019. “The Last Five Years Were the Hottest Ever
Recorded.” National Geographic, February 6. https://www.
nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/02/2018-fourthwarmest-year-ever-noaa-nasa-reports/.

6.

Lowder, S., Skoet, J., and Raney, T. 2016. “The Number, Size, and
Distribution of Farms, Smallholder Farms, and Family Farms
Worldwide.” World Development 87: 16–29.

7.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2018.
Global Warming of 1.5°C. Special Report. October.
https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/.

8.

IPCC. 2018. “Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Special Report
on Global Warming of 1.5°C Approved by Governments.” October
8. https://www.ipcc.ch/2018/10/08/summary-for-policymakersof-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-bygovernments/.

9.

United Nations Environment Programme. 2018. Emissions Gap
Report 2018. November 27. https://www.unenvironment.org/
resources/emissions-gap-report-2018.

10. IPCC. 2018. Global Warming of 1.5°C.
11. IPCC. 2018. Global Warming of 1.5°C.
Gerten, D., et al. 2013. “Towards a Revised Planetary Boundary
for Consumptive Freshwater Use: Role of Environmental Flow
Requirements.” Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
5: 551–558. IPBES (Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform
on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services). 2019. “Summary for
Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity
and Ecosystem Services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy
Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.” Secretariat of
the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity
and Ecosystem Services. Bonn, Germany. Hoegh-Guldberg, O.,
et al. 2018. “Impacts of 1.5°C Global Warming on Natural and
Human Systems.” In IPCC. Global Warming of 1.5°C. Mora, C.,
Dousset, B., Caldwell, I., Powell, F., Geronimo, R., Bielecki, C.,
Counsell, C., et al. 2017. “Global Risk of Deadly Heat.”

72

Global Commission on Adaptation

Nature Climate Change 7: 501–506. https://www.nature.
com/articles/nclimate3322. Jevrejeva, S., Jackson, L.P.,
Grinsted, A., Lincke, D., and Marzeion, B. 2018. “Flood damage
costs under the sea-level rise with warming of 1.5 and 2°C.”
Environmental Research Letters 13(7). https://iopscience.iop.
org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacc76/meta. Liu, W., Lim., W.H.,
Sun, F., Mitchell, D., Wang, H., Chen, D., Bethke, I., Shiogama,
H., Fischer, E. 2018. “Global Freshwater Availability Below
Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2°C
Stabilization Scenarios.” Geophysical Research Letters https://
doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078789. Naumann, G., Alfieri, L., Wyser,
K., Mentaschi, L., Betts, R.A., Carrao, H., Spinoni, J., Vogt, J. and
Feyen, L. 2018. “Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under
Different Levels of Warming.” Geophysical Research Letters
45(7) 3285-3296. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076521.
Aerenson, T., Tebaldi, C., Sanderson, B., and Lamarque, J. 2018.
“Changes in a suite of indicators of extreme temperature and
precipitation under 1.5 and 2 degrees warming.” Environmental
Research letters. 13: 035009. https://iopscience.iop.org/
article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaafd6. Tebaldi, C. and Lobell, D.
2018. “Differences, or lack thereof, in wheat and maize yields
under three low-warming scenarios.” Environmental Research
Letters. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/
aaba48.
12. Sarkodie, S.A., and Strezov, V. 2019. “Economic, Social
and Governance Adaptation Readiness for Mitigation
of Climate Change Vulnerability: Evidence from 192
Countries.” ScienceDirect, March. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
scitotenv.2018.11.349.
13. Hallegatte, S., et al. 2016. Shockwaves: Managing the Impacts of
Climate Change on Poverty. Washington, DC: World Bank.
14. Islam, S. Nazrul and John Winkel. October 2017. Climate Change
and Social Inequality. Working Paper no. 152. ST/ESA/2017/
DWP/152. United Nations Department of Economic and Social
Affairs.
15. UNDP Climate Change Adaptation. 2019. “Green Climate Fund
Pours $18.6 million towards Water Resilience in the Marshall
Islands.” https://www.adaptation-undp.org/green-climate-fundpours-186-million-towards-water-resilience-marshall-islands.
Climate Change, Republic of Kiribati. n.d. “Kiribati Adaptation
Program.” http://www.climate.gov.ki/kiribati-adaptationprogram/. World Bank. 2018. “Maldives’ Wetlands Help Fight
Climate Change.” Maldives. https://www.worldbank.org/en/
news/feature/2018/02/01/first-terrestrial-park-maldives-climatechange-adaptation.
16. Inside Climate News. 2017. “An Island Nation Turns Away
from Climate Migration, Despite Rising Seas.” November 20.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/20112017/kiribati-climatechange-refugees-migration-pacific-islands-sea-level-risecoconuts-tourism.
17. National Geographic. 2018. “Rising Seas Give Island Nation a
Stark Choice: Relocate or Elevate.” November 19. https://www.
nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/11/rising-seasforce-marshall-islands-relocate-elevate-artificial-islands/.

18. Fisher, D.R. 2019. “The Broader Importance of #FridaysforFuture.”
Nature Climate Change 9: 430–431. https://www.nature.com/
articles/s41558-019-0484-y.
19. UNFCCC. 2015. Paris Agreement. December 12. https://unfccc.
int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf.
20. United Nations Human Rights, Office of the High
Commissioner. 2019. “UN Expert Condemns Failure to
Address Impact of Climate Change on Poverty.” June 25.
https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.
aspx?NewsID=24735&LangID=E.
21. IBPES Global Assessment. 2019. Summary for Policy Makers.
22. IPCC. 2019. Climate Change and Land. Special Report. https://
www.ipcc.ch/report/srccl/.
23. IPCC. 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report.
IPCC. 2012: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters
to Advance Climate Change Adaptation.
24. Lenton, T.M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J.W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf,
S., and Schellnhuber, H.J. 2008. “Tipping Elements in the Earth’s
Climate System.” Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America 105(6): 1786–1793.
https://www.pnas.org/content/105/6/1786.
25. Lenton et al. 2008. “Tipping Elements in the Earth’s Climate
System.”
26. Nakashima, D.J., Galloway McLean, K., Thulstrup, H.D., Ramos
Castillo, A., and Rubis, J.T. 2012. Weathering Uncertainty:
Traditional Knowledge for Climate Change Assessment and
Adaptation. Paris: United Nations Educational, Scientific,
and Cultural Organization; Darwin, Australia: United Nations
University. https://collections.unu.edu/eserv/UNU:1511/
Weathering-Uncertainty_FINAL_12-6-2012.pdf.
27. World Resources Institute. 2019. “Estimating the Economic
Benefits of Climate Adaptation Investments.” Technical Paper.
28. World Resources Institute. 2019. “Estimating the Economic
Benefits of Climate Adaptation Investments.”
29. Infrastructure investment is about 25 percent of total gross
fixed capital formation (GFCF), and estimated investments in
infrastructure from 2020 to 2030 are $60 trillion (see https://
newclimateeconomy.report/2018/executive-summary/ and
the McKinsey Global Institute. 2013. Infrastructure Productivity:
How to Save $1 Trillion a Year.). Therefore, the indicative
$1.8 trillion invested over the same years is below 1 percent of
total estimated GFCF. The high range of UNEP estimates of the
total cost of adaptation is $300 billion in 2030 (https://www.
unenvironment.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report), and
even that level of investment would be below 1.5 percent of
projected GFCF.
30. Dar, M.H., Chakravorty, R., Waza, S.A., Sharma, M., Zaidi, N.W.,
Singh, A.N., Singh, U.S., and Ismail, A.M. 2017. “Transforming Rice
Cultivation in Flood Prone Coastal Odisha to Ensure Food and
Economic Security.” Food Security 9(4): 711–722. doi:10.1007/
s12571-017-0696-9.
31. Browder, G., S. Ozment, I.R. Bescos, T. Gartner, and G.-M. Lange.
2019. “Integrating Green and Gray: Creating Next Generation
Infrastructure.” Washington DC: World Resources Institute and
the World Bank. https://www.wri.org/publication/integratinggreen-gray.

32. Blankespoor, B., Dasgupta, S., and Lange, G.-M. 2016. “Mangroves
as Protection from Storm Surges in a Changing Climate.” Policy
Research Working Paper no. WPS 7596. Washington, DC: World
Bank Group.
33. Speech by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England and
Chairman of the Financial Stability Board, at Lloyd’s of London.
2015. September 29. https://www.bis.org/review/r151009a.pdf.
34. Robert, M.A., Christofferson, R.C., Weber, P.D., and Wearing,
H.J. 2019. “Temperature Impacts on Dengue Emergence in
the United States: Investigating the Role of Seasonality and
Climate Change.” Epidemics, June 5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
epidem.2019.05.003.
35. Lobell, D.B., and Gourdji, S.M. 2012. “The Influence of Climate
Change on Global Crop Productivity.” Plant Physiology 160(4):
1686–1697.
36. International Centre for Climate Change and Development. n.d.
“Least Developed Countries Universities Consortium on Climate
Change (LUCCC).” http://www.icccad.net/luccc/.
37. Jing, L., Wenjun, J., Qingwen, M., and Wenhua, L. 2016. “Effects
of Traditional Ecological Knowledge on the Drought-Resistant
Mechanisms of the Hani Rice Terraces System.” Journal of
Resources and Ecology 7(3): 211–217. https://pubag.nal.usda.
gov/catalog/5224250.
38. Gearheard, S., Aporta, C., Aipellee, G., and O’Keefe, K. 2011.
“The Igliniit Project: Inuit Hunters Document Life on the Trail
to Map and Monitor Arctic Change.” Canadian Geographer / Le
Géographe Canadien 55: 42–55.
39. World Bank. 2019. Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan. January.
40. World Economic Forum. 2019. The Global Risks Report 2019.
14th ed. January.http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_
Risks_Report_2019.pdf.
41. Goldstein, A., Turner, W., Gladstone, J., and Hole, D.G. 2018.
“The Private Sector’s Climate Change Risk and Adaptation Blind
Spots.” Nature Climate Change 9(1). dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558018-0340-5.
42. Report of the Special Rapporteur on the Rights of Indigenous
Peoples and Climate Change. 2017. September. https://www.
refworld.org/pdfid/59c2720c4.pdf.
43. Herath, A.S., Liang, L., Shen, L., Tabios, G.Q., Jiao, Y., Castro,
P.P.M., Diwa, J., et al. “Developing Ecosystem Based Adaptation
Strategies for Enhancing Resilience of Rice Terrace Farming
Systems against Climate Change.” Project. Asia-Pacific Network
for Global Change Research. http://www.apn-gcr.org/resources/
items/show/1594#.Ue9_YCSmqUk.
44. Gearheard et al. 2011. “The Igliniit Project.”
45. Nakashima et al. 2012. Weathering Uncertainty.
46. Ebi, K.L., Berry, P., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Cisse, G., Hess, J., and
Ogden, N. 2019. “Health System Adaptation to Climate Variability
and Change.” Background paper for Global Commission on
Adaptation.
47. CRISAT (International Crops Research Institute for the SemiArid Tropics). 2019. “SAARC Push for ‘Seeds Without Borders’
to Boost Pulses Value Chains.” April 26. https://www.icrisat.org/
saarc-push-for-seeds-without-borders-to-boost-pulses-valuechains/.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

73

48. ADRC (Asian Disaster Reduction Center). 2012. “Information on
Disaster Risk Reduction of the Member Countries.” Habib, A.,
Shahidullah, M., and Ahmed, D. 2012. “The Bangladesh Cyclone
Preparedness Program: A Vital Component of the Nation’s Multihazard Early Warning System.” Institutional Partnerships in Multihazard Early Warning Systems, edited by Golnarahhi, M. (Berlin:
Springer), 29–62.
49. CDP (Climate Disclosure Project). 2019. “World’s Biggest
Companies Face $1 Trillion in Climate Change Risks.” June
4. https://www.cdp.net/en/articles/media/worlds-biggestcompanies-face-1-trillion-in-climate-change-risks.
50. World Bank. 2019. The World Bank Group Action Plan on
Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience. Washington,
DC: World Bank. ttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/
en/519821547481031999/The-World-Bank-Groups-ActionPlanon-Climate-Change-Adaptation-and-Resilience-ManagingRisksfor-a-More-Resilient-Future.pdf.
51. Brown, M.E., Antle, J.M., Backlund, P., Carr, E.G., Easterling, W.E.,
Walsh, M.K., Ammann, C., et al. 2015. Climate Change, Global
Food Security, and the U.S. Food System. U.S. Department
of Agriculture. http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/
FoodSecurity.htm.
52. FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations),
IFAD (International Fund for Agricultural Development), UNICEF
(United Nations Children’s Fund), WFP (World Food Programme),
and WHO (World Health Organization). 2018. The State of
Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2018: Building Climate
Resilience for Food Security and Nutrition. Rome: FAO.
53. Porter, J.R., Xie, L., Challinor, A.J., Cochrane, K., Howden, S.M.,
Iqbal, M.M., Lobell, D.B., and Travasso, M.I. 2014. “Food Security
and Food Production Systems.” In Climate Change 2014: Impacts,
Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by
Field, C.B., Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea,
M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., et al., 485–533. Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press.
54. Hoffman, A.L., Kemanian, A.R., and Forest, C.E. 2017. “Analysis of
Climate Signals in the Crop Yield Record of Sub-Saharan Africa.”
Global Change Biology 24(1): 143–157.
55. FAO et al. 2018. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the
World 2018. Figures 18, 20, 24.
56. FAO et al. 2018. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World
2018. Tables 2, 4. The numbers vary based on the method used.
57. FAO et al. 2018. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the
World 2018. Table 7.
58. Searchinger, T., et al. 2019. Creating a Sustainable Food Future:
Synthesis Report. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute,
World Bank, United Nations Environment Programme, United
Nations Development Programme, using dietary analyses and
projected growth from the GlobAgri model based on FAOestimated present and 2050 diets in Alexandratos, N., and
Bruinsma, J. 2012. World Agriculture towards 2030/2050: The
2012 Revision. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations. See also Van Ittersum, M.K., van Bussel, L.G.J.,

74

Global Commission on Adaptation

Wolf, J., Grassini, P., van Wart, J., Guilpart, N., Claessens, L., et al.
2016. “Can Sub-Saharan Africa Feed Itself?” Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
113(52): 14964–14969.
59. Valin, H., Sands, R.D., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Nelson, G.C.,
Ahammad, H., Blanc, E., Bodirsky, B., et al. 2014. “The Future of
Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic
Models.” Agricultural Economics 45(1): 51–67. Searchinger et
al. 2019. Creating a Sustainable Food Future. Alexandratos and
Bruinsma. 2012. World Agriculture towards 2030/2050.
60. Searchinger et al. 2019. Creating a Sustainable Food Future.
World Resources Institute. https://wrr-food.wri.org/.
61. IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute). 2019.
“Global Food Security under Climate Change: Outlook and
Adaptive Responses.” IFPRI GCA Background Paper.
62. Porter et al. 2014. “Food Security and Food Production Systems.”
World Bank. 2013. Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes,
Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience. Washington, DC.
63. Zhu, C., et al. 2018. “Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Levels This Century
Will Alter the Protein, Micronutrients, and Vitamin Content of
Rice Gains with Potential Health Consequences for the Poorest
Rice-Dependent Countries.” Science Advances 4: eaaq1012. Elbi,
K., and Ziska, L. 2018. “Increases in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide:
Anticipated Negative Effects on Food Quality.” PLoS Med 15:
e1002600.
64. IPCC. 2013. “Summary for Policymakers.” In Climate Change
2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group
I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, edited by Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner,
G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., et al.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/
CBO9781107415324.004.
IPCC. 2012. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters
to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of
Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
65. World Bank. 2014. Turn Down the Heat: Confronting a New
Climate Normal. Washington, DC: World Bank.
66. Thornton, P.K., Jones, P.G., Ericksen, P.J., and Challinor, A.J. 2011.
“Agriculture and Food Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+
World.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London
A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 369 (1934):
117–136. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0246.
67. Lloyd, S.J., Kovats, R.S., and Chalabi, Z. 2011. “Climate
Change, Crop Yields, and Undernutrition: Development of a
Model to Quantify the Impact of Climate Scenarios on Child
Undernutrition.” Environmental Health Perspectives 119(12):
1817–1823. doi:10.1289/ehp.1003311.
68. FAO. 2017. Leveraging Food Systems for Inclusive Rural
Transformation: The State of Food and Agriculture 2017. Rome:
FAO.
69. FAO et al. 2018. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the
World 2018.

70. Nelson, C.C., et al. 2014. “Climate Change Effects on Agriculture:
Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks.” Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
111: 3274–3279.
71. See previous note for sources and explanation.
72. IFPRI. 2019. “Global Food Security under Climate Change:
Outlook and Adaptive Responses.”
73. Porter et al. 2014. “Food Security and Food Production Systems.”
Rosegrant, M.W., Koo, J., Cenacchi, N., Ringler, C., Robertson,
R.D., Fisher, M., Cox, C.M., et al. 2014. Food Security in a World of
Natural Resource Scarcity: The Role of Agricultural Technologies.
Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.
74. Ramankutty, N., Evan, A.T., Monfreda, C., Foley, J.A. 2008.
“Farming the Planet: 1. Geographic Distribution of Global
Agricultural Lands in the Year 2000,” Global Biogeochemical
Cycles 22(1), https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB002952). Refers
to areas of vulnerability projected for the 2050s based on RCP
8.5 overlaid on cropland and pastureland with respect to (1)
reduction below 90 of number of reliable crop growing days per
year, mostly due to changes in rainfall distributions and amounts
(W); (2) increases in average maximum temperature during
the primary growing season above 30°C (T); (3) areas where
the coefficient of variation of annual rainfall is currently greater
than the median value for the global tropics (V). Methods as in
Jones, P.G., and Thornton, P.K., “Generating Downscaled Weather
Data from a Suite of Climate Models for Agricultural Modelling
Applications,” Agricultural Systems 114 (2013): 1–5; and Jones,
P.G., and Thornton, P.K., “Representative Soil Profiles for the
Harmonized World Soil Database at Different Spatial Resolutions
for Agricultural Modelling Applications,” Agricultural Systems 139
(2015): 93–99, ensemble mean of 17 climate models from the
Coupled-Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) of the IPCC.
75. IPCC. 2013. “Summary for Policymakers.” Searchinger et al.
2019. Creating a Sustainable Food Future. Willett, W., et al. 2019.
“Food in the Anthropocene: The EAT-Lancet Commission on
Healthy Diets from Sustainable Food Systems.” Lancet 393:
447–492. https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/EAT.
76. Lowder, S., Skoet, J., and Raney, T. 2016. “The Number, Size, and
Distribution of Farms, Smallholder Farms, and Family Farms
Worldwide.” World Development 87: 16–29.
77. Castañeda, A., Doan, D., Newhouse, D., Nguyen, M.C., Uematsu,
H., and Azevedo, J.P. 2018. “A New Profile of the Global Poor.’’
World Development 101(C): 250–267.
78. FAO et al. 2018. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the
World 2018. Castañeda et al. 2018. “A New Profile of the Global
Poor.’’
79. Fischer, T., Byerlee, D., and Edmeades, G. 2014. “Crop Yields and
Global Food Security: Will Yield Increases Continue to Feed the
World?” ACIAR Monograph no. 158. Canberra: Australian Centre
for International Agricultural Research.
80. See Figure 1.2 and World Resources Institute. 2019. “Estimating
the Economic Benefits of Climate Adaptation Investments.”
Technical Paper. September.

81. Zhao, C., Liu, B., Piao, S., Wang, X., Lobell, D.B., Huang, Y., Huang,
M., et al. 2017. “Temperature Increase Reduces Global Yields
of Major Crops in Four Independent Estimates.” PNAS 114:
9326–9331. Urban, D., Roberts, M.J., Schlenker, W., and Lobell,
D.B. 2012. “Projected Temperature Changes Indicate Significant
Increase in Interannual Variability of U.S. Maize Yields.” Climatic
Change 112 (2): 525–533.
82. Gates, B. 2019. “You’ve Probably Never Heard of CGIAR, but They
Are Essential to Feeding Our Future.” GatesNotes: The Blog of
Bill Gates, July 9. https://www.gatesnotes.com/Development/
How-CGIAR-is-feeding-our-future. Lunduka, R.W., Mateva, K.I.,
Magorokosho, C., and Manjeru, P. 2019. “Impact of Adoption of
Drought-Tolerant Maize Varieties on Total Maize Production in
South Eastern Zimbabwe.” Climate and Development 11(1): 3546. doi:10.1080/17565529.2017.1372269.
83. Hurley, T.M., Pardey, P.G., Rao, X., and Andrade, R. 2016. “Returns
to Food and Agricultural R&D Investments Worldwide, 1958–
2015.” InSTePP Brief. St. Paul, MN: International Science and
Technology Practice & Policy Center.
84. Raitzer, D.A. and Kelley, T.G. 2008. “Benefit–Cost Meta-analysis of
Investment in the International Agricultural Research Centers of
the CGIAR.” Agricultural Systems 96(1–3): 108–123.
85. Nelson, R., Naylor, R.L., and Jahn, M.A. 2004. “The Role of
Genomics Research in Improvement of ‘Orphan’ Crops.” Crop
Science 44: 1901–1904.
86. Jaganathan, D., Ramasamy, K., Sellamuthu, G., Jayabalan, S.,
and Venkataraman, G. 2018. “CRISPR for Crop Improvement:
An Update Review.” Frontiers in Plant Science 9(985). 10.3389/
fpls.2018.00985. Lemmon, Z.H., Reem, N.T., Dalrymple, J., Soyk,
S., Swartwood, K.E., Rodriguez-Leal, D., Van Eck, J., and Lippman,
Z.B. 2018. “Rapid Improvement of Domestication Traits in an
Orphan Crop by Genome Editing.” Nature Plants 4(10): 766–770.
87. Challinor, A.J., Watson, J., Lobell, D.B., Howden, S.M., Smith,
D.R., and Chhetri, N. 2014. “A Meta-analysis of Crop Yield under
Climate Change and Adaptation.” Nature Climate Change 4:
287–291.
88. Atlin, G.N., Cairns, J.E., and Das, B. 2017. “Rapid Breeding and
Varietal Replacement Are Critical to Adaptation of Cropping
Systems in the Developing World to Climate Change.” Global
Food Security 12: 31–37. Challinor, A.J., Koehler, A.K., RamirezVillegas, J., Whitfield, S., and Das, B. 2016. “Current Warming Will
Reduce Yields unless Maize Breeding and Seed Systems Adapt
Immediately.” Nature Climate Change 6(10): 954.
89. Fuglie, K. 2012. “Productivity Growth and Technology Capital
in the Global Agricultural Economy.” In Productivity Growth in
Agriculture: An International Perspective, edited by Fuglie, K.,
Wang, S.L., and Ball, V.E. Oxfordshire, UK: CAB International.
90. AEC Fund. 2015. Assessing the Impacts of Shamba Shape
Up. Report commissioned by AEC Fund and led by University
of Reading. https://cgspace.cgiar.org/bitstream/handle. For
example, one study found a 10:1 return for establishing a
mobile-phone-based agricultural advice service in India for
cumin and cotton. Cole, S., and Fernando, A.N. 2012 (2016).
“‘Mobilizing Agricultural Advice: Technology Adoption, Diffusion
and Sustainability.” Harvard Business School, Working Paper
13-047. https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Publication%20Files/13047_155cb6a2-afb5-4744-a62d-929b01fc9e7c.pdf.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

75

91. Cooper, P.J.M., and Coe, R. 2011. “Assessing and Addressing
Climate-Induced Risk in Sub-Saharan Rainfed Agriculture.”
Experimental Agriculture 47(SI 02): 179–184. https://doi.
org/10.1017/S0014479711000019.
92. Perez, C., Jones, E. M., Kristjanson, P., Cramer, L., Thornton, P.K.,
Förch, W., and Barahona, C. 2015. “How Resilient Are Farming
Households and Communities to a Changing Climate in Africa?
A Gender-Based Perspective.” Global Environmental Change 34:
95–107. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.1016.
93. Hansen, J.W., Baethgen, W.E., Osgood, D.E., Ceccato, P.N., and
Ngugi, R.K. 2007. “Innovations in Climate Risk Management:
Protecting and Building Rural Livelihoods in a Variable and
Changing Climate.” SAT eJournal 4(1). http://www.fao.org/
fileadmin/user_upload/rome2007/docs/Innovations_in_Climate_
Risk_Management_2007.pdf.
94. Waha, K., et al. 2018. “Agricultural Diversification as an Important
Strategy for Achieving Food Security in Africa.” Global Change
Biology 24: 3390–3400. Frelat, R., Lopez-Ridaura, S., Giller, K.E.,
Herrero, M., Douxchamps, S., Djurfeldt, A van Wijk, M.T. 2016.
“Drivers of Household Food Availability in Sub-Saharan Africa
Based on Big Data from Small Farms.” Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
113(2). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1518384112. Rufino, M.C.,
Thornton, P.K., Ng’ang’a, S.K., Mutie, I., Jones, P.G., van Wijk, M.T.,
and Herrero, M. 2013. “Transitions in Agro-pastoralist Systems of
East Africa: Impacts on Food Security and Poverty.” Agriculture,
Ecosystems & Environment 179: 215–223.
95. Tirivayi, N., Knowles, M., and Davis, B. 2013. The Interaction
between Social Protection and Agriculture: A Review of Evidence.
Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
Bhatta, G.D., and Aggarwal, P.K. 2016. “Coping with Weather
Adversity and Adaptation to Climatic Variability: A Cross-country
Study of Smallholder Farmers in South Asia.” Climate and
Development 8: 145–157. Downing, T.E., Gitu, K.W., and Kamau,
C.M. 1989. Coping with Drought in Kenya: National and Local
Strategies. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner. Longhurst, R. 1986.
“Household Food Strategies in Response to Seasonality and
Famine.” IDS Bulletin 17(3): 27–35.
96. HLPE (High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and
Nutrition). 2012. Social Protection for Food Security. Rome: HLPE.
97. Carter, M., de Janvry, A., Sadoulet, and E., Sarris, A. 2017. “Index
Insurance for Developing Country Agriculture: A Reassessment.”
Annual Review of Resource Economics 9: 421–438.
98. Lowder, S.K., B. Carisma, and J. Skoet. 2012. “Who Invests in
Agriculture and How Much? An Empirical Review of the Relative
Size of Various Investments in Agriculture in Low- and MiddleIncome Countries.” ESA Working Papers 288992 Rome: Food
and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural
Development Economics Division.
99. FAO. 2011. State of Food and Agriculture: Women in Agriculture,
Closing the Gender Gap for Development. Rome: FAO. IFPRI.
2019. “Global Food Security under Climate Change.” Theis, S.,
Lefore, N., Meinzen-Dick, R., and E. Bryan. 2018. “What Happens
after Technology Adoption? Gendered Aspects of Small-Scale
Irrigation Technologies in Ethiopia, Ghana, and Tanzania.”
Agriculture and Human Values 35(3): 671–684. https://doi.

76

Global Commission on Adaptation

org/10.1007/s10460-018-9862-8. Jost, C., Kyazze, F., Naab, J.,
Neelormi, S., Kinyangi, J., Zougmore, R., Aggarwal, P., et al. 2016.
“Understanding Gender Dimensions of Agriculture and Climate
Change in Smallholder Farming Communities.” Climate and
Development 8(2): 1–12. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.
1080/17565529.2015.1050978.
100. Bryceson, D.F. 2019. “Gender and Generational Patterns of
African Deagrarianization: Evolving Labour and Land Allocation
in Smallholder Peasant Household Farming, 1980–2015.” World
Development 113: 60–72.
101. FAO et al. 2018. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the
World 2018.
102. Perez et al. 2015. “How Resilient Are Farming Households and
Communities to a Changing Climate in Africa?” Tirivayi, N.,
Knowles, M., and Davis, B. 2016. “The Interaction between Social
Protection and Agriculture: A Review of Evidence.” Global Food
Security 10: 52–62.
103. FAO. 2011. State of Food and Agriculture: Women in Agriculture.
104. Vermeulen, S., Dinesh, D., Howden, S.M., Cramer, L., and Thornton,
P.K. “Transformation in Practice: A Review of Empirical Cases
of Transformational Adaptation in Agriculture under Climate
Change.” Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems 2: 65. Several
examples are also discussed in Thornton, P.K., Loboguerrero,
A.M., Campbell, B.M., Kavikumar, K.S., Mercado, L., and
Shackleton, S. 2019. “Rural Livelihoods, Food Security and Rural
Transformation under Climate Change.” Background paper for the
Global Commission on Adaptation.
105. FAO. 2018. Pastoralism in Africa’s Drylands: Reducing Risks,
Addressing Vulnerability and Enhancing Resilience. Rome: FAO.
http://www.fao.org/3/CA1312EN/ca1312en.pdf.
106. Herrero, M., Addison, J., Bedelian, C., Carabine, E., Havlík,
P., Henderson, B., van de Steeg, J., and Thornton, P.K. 2016.
“Climate Change and Pastoralism: Impacts, Consequences and
Adaptation.” Revue Scientifique et Technique, Office International
des Epizooties 35(2): 417–433. Schmidt, M., and Pearson, O.
2016. “Pastoral Livelihoods under Pressure: Ecological, Political
and Socioeconomic Transitions in Afar (Ethiopia).” Journal of Arid
Environments 124: 22–30. Pricope, N.G., Husak, G., Lopez-Carr,
D., Funk, C., and Michaelsen, J. 2013. “The Climate-Population
Nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging Degradation Trends in
Rangeland and Pastoral Livelihood Zones.” Global Environmental
Change 23(6): 1525–1541.
107. Huang, J., Gulati, A., and Gregory, I. 2017. Fertilizer Subsidies:
Which Way Forward? Muscle Shoals, AL: International
Fertilizer Development Center. https://ifdc.org/2017/01/23/
new-publication-fertilizer-subsidies-which-way-forward/.
Badiani-Magnusson, R., and Jessoe, K. 2015. “Electricity Prices,
Groundwater and Agriculture: The Environmental and Agricultural
Impacts of Electricity Subsidies in India.” World Bank and
University of California at Davis.
108. This analysis is based on the OECD database of public
agriculture support, available at https://data.oecd.org/agrpolicy/
agricultural-support.htm, and summarized, for example, in
Agricultural Policy Monitoring and Evaluation 2017 (Paris: OECD
Publishing, 2017), http://public.eblib.com/choice/publicfullrecord.
aspx?p=4940034. Less than 20 percent of this funding went

toward R&D, safety health and inspection, conservation, or
infrastructure. Searchinger et al. 2019. Creating a Sustainable
Food Future.
109. IPCC. 2019. Climate Change and Land. See Table 4.1. https://
www.ipcc.ch/report/srccl/.
110. HLPE. 2019. Agroecological and Other Innovative Approaches for
Sustainable Agriculture and Food Systems That Enhance Food
Security and Nutrition. Rome: HLPE.
111. IBPES Global Assessment 2019: Summary for Policy Makers.
112. IPCC. 2019. Climate Change and Land.
113. Díaz, S., Settele, J., and Brondízio, E. 2019. “Summary for
Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity
and Ecosystem Services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy
Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.”
114. FAO. 2018. The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture. http://
www.fao.org/fishery/sofia/en.
115. IPCC. 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. IPCC. 2012:
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation.
116. Lenton et al. 2008. “Tipping Elements in the Earth’s Climate
System.”
117. IPCC. 2018. “Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Special Report
on Global Warming of 1.5°C Approved by Governments.”
118. Nakashima et al. 2012. Weathering Uncertainty.
119. UNEP-WCMC (World Conservation Monitoring Centre). 2019.
“Natural Environment and Adaptation.” Paper commissioned by
the Global Commission on Adaptation. April.
120. Griscom, B.W., Adams, J., Ellis, P.W., Houghton, R.A., Lomax,
G., Miteva, D.A., Schlesinger, W.H., et al. 2017. “Natural Climate
Solutions.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of
the United States of America 114(44): 11645–11650.
121. Browder et al. 2019. “Integrating Green and Gray.” PlaNYC and NYC
Environmental Protection. 2010. “Executive Summary.” NYC Green
Infrastructure Plan: A Sustainable Strategy for Clean Waterways.
http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/pdf/green_infrastructure/
NYCGreenInfrastructurePlan_ExecutiveSummary.pdf.
122. The Nature Conservancy. 2014. Urban Water Blueprint: Mapping
Conservation Solutions to the Global Water Challenge. https://
www.nature.org/content/dam/tnc/nature/en/documents/Urban_
Water_Blueprint.pdf.
123. Sendzimir, J., Reij, C.P., and Magnuszewski, P. 2011. “Rebuilding
Resilience in the Sahel: Regreening in the Maradi and Zinder
Regions of Niger.” Ecology and Society 16(3). doi:10.5751/ES04198-160301.
124. The Nature Conservancy and C40 Cities. 2016. A Global Analysis
of the Role of Urban Trees in Addressing Particulate Matter
Pollution and Extreme Heat. https://www.nature.org/content/
dam/tnc/nature/en/documents/20160825_PHA_Report_Final.
pdf.

126. Mitsch, W.J., Bernal, B., and Hernandez, M.E. 2015. “Ecosystem
Services of Wetlands.” International Journal of Biodiversity
Science, Ecosystem Services & Management 11(1): 1–4. https://
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21513732.2015.1006250.
127. Mitsch, W.J., Bernal, B., Nahlik, A.M., Mander, U., Zhang, L.,
Anderson, C.L., Jørgensen, S.E., and Brix, H. 2013. “Wetlands,
Carbon, and Climate Change.” Landscape Ecology 28(4):
583–597. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-0129758-8.
128. Goldstein, A., Turner, W.J., Gladstone, J., and Hole, D.G. 2019.
“The Private Sector’s Climate Change Risk and Adaptation Blind
Spots.” Nature Climate Change 9: 18–25. https://www.nature.
com/articles/s41558-018-0340-5.
129. Bai, Y., Jiang, B., Wang, M., Li, H., Alatalo, J.H., and Huang, S.
2016. “New Ecological Redline Policy (ERP) to Secure Ecosystem
Services in China.” Land Use Policy 55: 348–351. https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.09.002.
130. Bai, Y., Wong, C.P., Jiang, B., Hughes, A.C., Wang, M., and Wang,
Q. 2018. “Developing China’s Ecological Redline Policy Using
Ecosystem Services Assessments for Land Use Planning.” Nature
Communications 9: 3034.
131. UNEP-WCMC (World Conservation Monitoring Centre. 2019.
“Natural Environment and Adaptation.”
132. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and
World Bank. 2011. Sahel and West Africa Program in Support
of the Great Green Wall Initiative: To Expand Sustainable Land
and Water Management in Targeted Landscapes and Climate
Vulnerable Areas. https://www.thegef.org/sites/default/files/
publications/SAWAP_English_Final_1.pdf.
133. EcoShape. 2019. “Building with Nature Indonesia.” https://www.
ecoshape.org/en/projects/building-with-nature-indonesia/.
134. Pagiola, S. 2008. “Payments for Environmental Services in Costa
Rica.” Ecological Economics 65(4): 712–724. Environmental
Defense Fund (EDF). 2017. “Unlocking Private Capital to
Finance Sustainable Infrastructure.” http://business.edf.org/
files/2017/09/EDF_Unlocking-Private-Capital-to-FinanceSustainable-In-frastructure_FINAL.pdf.
135. UNDRR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction).
2019. Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction.
Geneva: UNDRR.
136. UNESCO and WWAP (World Water Assessment Programme).
2018. Nature-Based Solutions for Water: The United Nations World
Water Development Report 2018. https://unesdoc.unesco.org/
ark:/48223/pf0000261424.
137. Damania, R., Desbureaux, S., Hyland, M., Islam, A., Moore,
S., Rodella, A.-S., Russ, J., and Zaveri, E. 2017. Uncharted
Waters: The New Economics of Water Scarcity and Variability.
Washington, DC: International Bank for Reconstruction
and Development and World Bank. https://openknowledge.
worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/28096/9781464811791.
pdf?sequence=21&isAllowed=y.

125. Narayan, S., Beck, M.W., Reguero, B.G., Losada, I.J., van
Wesenbeeck, B., Pontee, N., Sanchirico, J.N., et al. 2016. “The
Effectiveness, Costs and Coastal Protection Benefits of Natural
and Nature-Based Defences.” PLOS One 11(5): e0154735. https://
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4852949/.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

77

138. Jiménez Cisneros, B.E., Oki, T., Arnell, N.W., Benito, G., Cogley,
J.G., Döll, P., Jiang, T., and Mwakalila, S.S. 2014. “Freshwater
Resources.” In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and
Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution
of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by Field, C.B.,
Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E.,
Chatterjee, M., et al., 229–269. Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/
WGIIAR5-Chap3_FINAL.pdf.
139. McDonald, R.I., Weber, K.F., Padowski, J., Boucher, T., and Shemie,
D. 2016. “Estimating Watershed Degradation over the Last
Century and Its Impact on Water-Treatment Costs for the World’s
Large Cities.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of
the United States of America 113(32): 9117–9122. https://www.
pnas.org/content/113/32/9117.
140. UNDRR. 2011. Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk
Reduction.
141. UNDP Climate Change Adaptation. 2019. “Green Climate Fund
Pours $18.6 Million towards Water Resilience in the Marshall
Islands.”
142. World Bank Group. 2016. High and Dry: Climate Change,
Water and the Economy. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. https://
openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/23665.
143. World Bank Group. 2016. High and Dry: Climate Change, Water
and the Economy.
144. Leahy, S. 2018. “From Not Enough to Too Much, the World’s
Water Crisis Explained.” National Geographic, March 22. https://
www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2018/03/world-water-daywater-crisis-explained/.
145. Rijkswaterstaat. “Room for the River.” https://www.
ruimtevoorderivier.nl/english/.
146. European Environment Agency. 2018. “Interview: The Dutch
Make Room for the River.” August 30, 2018. https://www.eea.
europa.eu/signals/signals-2018-content-list/articles/interview2014-the-dutch-make.
147. Winpenny, J. 2015. “Water: Fit to Finance?” World Water
Council, OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development); cited in OECD. 2018. “Financing Water: Investing
in Sustainable Growth.” OECD Environmental Policy Paper no. 11.
148. We use “cities” to denote areas officially defined as cities and
“urban areas” for those comprising multiple city jurisdictions.
149. IRP (International Resource Panel). 2018. The Weight of Cities:
Resource Requirements of Future Urbanization. Nairobi: United
Nations Environment Programme. https://www.resourcepanel.
org/reports/weight-cities.
150. Hallegatte, S., Green, C., Nicholls, R.J., and Corfee-Morlot, J. 2013.
“Future Flood Losses in Major Coastal Cities.” Nature Climate
Change 3(9): 802–806.
151. UN-Habitat. 2016. Urbanization and Development: Emerging Futures.
World Cities Report 2016. http://wcr.unhabitat.org/wp-content/
uploads/sites/16/2016/05/WCR-%20Full-Report-2016.pdf.
152. Climate Central. 2019. Ocean at the Door: New Homes and the
Rising Sea. Princeton, NJ: Climate Central.

78

Global Commission on Adaptation

153. Beard, V., Mahendra, A., and Westphal, M. 2016. “Towards a More
Equal City: Framing the Challenges and Opportunities.” Working
Paper. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.
154. Dhiman, R., Vishnu Radhan, R., Eldho, T.I., and Inamdar, A. 2019.
“Flood Risk and Adaptation in Indian Coastal Cities: Recent
Scenarios.” Applied Water Science 9(1): 5. Chu, E. 2016. “The
Political Economy of Urban Climate Adaptation and Development
Planning in Surat, India,” Environment and Planning C: Government
and Policy 34(2).
155. Chu, E., Brown, A., Michael, K., Du, J., Lwasa, S., and Mahendra,
A. 2019. “Unlocking the Potential for Transformative Climate
Adaptation in Cities.” Washington, DC: Global Commission on
Adaptation and World Resources Institute. Rosenzweig, C.,
Solecki, W., Romero-Lankao, P., Mehrotra, S., Dhakal, S., and
Ali Ibrahim, S., eds. 2018. Climate Change and Cities: Second
Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research
Network (ARC3.2). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
156. Leon-Guerrero, A. 2018. Social Problems: Community, Policy, and
Social Action. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
157. For more information, see SCCT (Surat Climate Change Trust),
http://scct-surat.in/.
158. Ozment, S., Feltran-Barbieri, R., Hamel, P., Gray, E., Ribeiro,
J.B., Barrêto, S.R., Padovezi, A., and Valente, T.P. 2018. Natural
Infrastructure in São Paulo’s Water System. Washington, DC:
World Resources Institute.
159. Chu et al. 2019. “Unlocking the Potential for Transformative
Climate Adaptation in Cities.” Sutherland, C., Hordijk, M., Lewis, B.,
Meyer, C., and Buthelezi, S. 2014. “Water and Sanitation Provision
in Ethekwini Municipality: A Spatially Differentiated Approach.”
Environment and Urbanization 26(2): 469–488.
160. Berkes, F., and Ross, H. 2013. “Community Resilience: Toward an
Integrated Approach.” Society & Natural Resources 26(1): 5–20.
Rodima-Taylor, D., Olwig, M.F., and Chhetri, N. 2012. “Adaptation
as Innovation, Innovation as Adaptation: An Institutional
Approach to Climate Change.” Applied Geography 33: 107–111.
161. Satterthwaite, D., Archer, D., Colenbrander, S., Dodman, D.,
Hardoy, J., and Patel, S. 2018. “Responding to Climate Change
in Cities and in Their Informal Settlements and Economies.” IIED
(International Institute for Environment and Development). Paper
prepared for the IPCC for the International Scientific Conference
on Cities and Climate Change in Edmonton, Canada, March.
https://citiesipcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Informalitybackground-paper-for-IPCC-Cities.pdf.
162. ACHR (Asian Coalition for Housing Rights). 2015. 215 Cities in
Asia: Fifth Yearly Report of the Asian Coalition for Community
Action. Bangkok: ACHR.
163. SDI (Shack/Slum Dwellers International). 2018. “Know Your City
Initiative.” SDI.
164. Teodosio, B.R.C. (organizer, Community Organizers Multiversity).
2019. Conversation with Jessica Arriens. April.
165. Barnard, S. 2015. “Climate Finance for Cities: How Can
International Climate Funds Best Support Low-Carbon and
Climate Resilient Urban Development?” Working Paper 419.
Overseas Development Institute. Chu et al. 2019. “Unlocking the
Potential for Transformative Climate Adaptation in Cities.”

166. World Bank. 2018. “Financing a Resilient Urban Future: A
Policy Brief on World Bank and Global Experience on Financing
Climate-Resilient Urban Infrastructure.” Washington, DC:
World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/
en/370831544454490426/pdf/132822-WP-PUBLIC-8-12-2018-326-37-FRUFFinalDec.pdf.
167. Government of Kenya. 2016. Sessional Paper no. 3 on National
Climate Change Framework Policy (Kenya). Nairobi: Ministry of
Environment and Natural Resources.
168. Confederation of Danish Industry. n.d. “Climate Adapted Cities:
Solutions from Copenhagen.” Copenhagen: Confederation of
Danish Industry. Government of Denmark. 2012. “Action Plan
for a Climate-Proof Denmark.” Copenhagen: Government of
Denmark.
169. Ministry of Urban Development, Government of India. 2015.
“Smart Cities: Mission Statement & Guidelines.” https://web.
archive.org/web/20170801155633/http://164.100.161.224/
upload/uploadfiles/files/SmartCityGuidelines(1).pdf.
170. Browder et al. 2019. “Integrating Green and Gray.”
171. This chapter focuses on energy, transport, communications,
water, and waste management. The built environment and social
infrastructure are discussed in Chapter 5 on cities.
172. Economist. 2015. “Building Works.” Infrastructure in the Rich
World. August 27. https://www.economist.com/finance-andeconomics/2015/08/27/building-works.
173. United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and World Health
Organization. 2019. Progress on Household Drinking Water,
Sanitation and Hygiene, 2000–2017: Special Focus on Inequalities.
https://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/publications/jmp2019-full-report.pdf?ua=1.
174. ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers. n.d. “America’s
Infrastructure Grades Remain near Failing.” https://www.asce.
org/templates/press-release-detail.aspx?id=24013. Accessed
August 21, 2019.
175. OECD. 2017. Investing in Climate, Investing in Growth. Paris:
OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264273528-en.
176. Transport: Koks, E.E., Rozenberg, J., Zorn, C., Tariverdi, M.,
Vousdoukas, M., Fraser, S.A., Hall, J.W., and Hallegatte, S. 2019.
“A Global Multi-hazard Risk Analysis of Road and Railway
Infrastructure Assets.” Nature Communications 10(1) (2019):
2677. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-10442-3. Energy:
Nicolas, C., Rentschler, J., Potter van Loon, A., Oguah, S.,
Schweikert, A., Deinert, M., Koks, E., et al. 2019. “Stronger
Power: Improving Power Sector Resilience to Natural Hazards.”
Background Paper for Lifelines. Washington, DC: World Bank.
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/31910.
177. Forzieri, G., Bianchi, A., Batista e Silva, F., Marin Herrera,
M.A., Leblois, A., Lavalle, C., Aerts, J.C.J.H., and Feyen, L.
2018. “Escalating Impacts of Climate Extremes on Critical
Infrastructures in Europe.” Global Environmental Change 48:
97–107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.007.
178. Cervigni, R., Liden, R., Neumann, J.E., and Strzepek, K.M. 2015.
Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa’s Infrastructure:
The Power and Water Sectors. Africa Development Forum.
Washington, DC: World Bank. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. https://
openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/21875.

179. Hjort, J., Karjalainen, O., Aalto, J., Westermann, S., Romanovsky,
V.E., Nelson, F.E., Etzelmüller, B., and Luoto, M. 2018. “Degrading
Permafrost Puts Arctic Infrastructure at Risk by Mid-century.”
Nature Communications 9: 5147. https://www.nature.com/
articles/s41467-018-07557-4.
180. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration).
2019. U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather & Climate Disasters, 1980–2019.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events.pdf. CMA. 2018.
Member Report: China. ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee.
http://www.typhooncommittee.org/13IWS/docs/Members%20
REport/CHina/Member_report_China_2018.pdf.
181. Khan, S., and Perez, A. 2019. Eventwatch® 2018 Annual Report.
Resilinc. https://info.resilinc.com/eventwatch-2018-annual-report.
182. OECD. 2014. Seine Basin, Île-de-France, 2014: Resilience to Major
Floods. https://www.oecd.org/gov/seine-basin-ile-de-france2014-resilience-to-major-floods-9789264208728-en.htm.
183. Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J., and Rozenberg, J. 2019. A Path
toward Resilient Infrastructure. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
184. Environmental Change Institute. Forthcoming. Infrastructure
background paper for Global Commission on Adaptation.
185. Hallegatte et al. 2019. Lifelines.
186. Environmental Change Institute. Forthcoming. Infrastructure
background paper for Global Commission on Adaptation.
187. Humphreys, G. 2014. “Reinventing the Toilet for 2.5 Billion in
need.” World Health Organization Bulletin. https://europepmc.org/
articles/pmc4121873.
188. Adshead, D., Fuldauer, L.I., Thacker, S., Hickford, A., Rouhet, G.,
Muller, W.S., Hall, J.W., and Nicholls, R.J. 2018. Evidence-Based
Infrastructure: Curacao: National Infrastructure Systems Modelling
to Support Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure Development.
Copenhagen: United Nations Office for Project Services.
189. OECD. 2018. “Climate-Resilient Infrastructure.” OECD
Environment Policy Paper no. 14. Paris: OECD Publishing. https://
doi.org/10.1787/4fdf9eaf-en.
190. Global Infrastructure Hub. 2019. Global Infrastructure Investor
Survey Report 2019. https://www.gihub.org/resources/
publications/global-infrastructure-hub-investor-surveyreport-2019/.
191. GFDRR (Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction). 2016.
Colombia: Policy Strategy for Public Financial Management of
Natural Disaster Risk. https://www.gfdrr.org/en/publication/
colombia-policy-strategy-public-financial-management-naturaldisaster-risk.
192. Leister, E., and Pydynowski, K. “Paris Breaks All-Time High
Temperature as Deadly Heat Wave Shatters Records across
Europe.” AccuWeather, July 28.https://www.accuweather.com/
en/weather-news/scorching-heat-produces-all-time-recordhighs-in-belgium-netherlands-as-western-europe-swelters-underheat-wave/70008886.
193. Hopewell, J. 2018. “Nearly 50 Inches in 24 Hours: Hawaii May
Have Broken the National Rainfall Record.” Washington Post,
Capital Weather Gang, April 27. https://www.washingtonpost.
com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/04/27/nearly-50inches-in-24-hours-hawaii-may-have-broken-the-national-rainfallrecord/?utm_term=.2ac2885ba8cf.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

79

194. Robine, J.-M., Cheung, S.L.K., Le Roy, S., Van Oyen, H., Griffiths,
C., Michel, J.-P., and Herrmann, F.R. 2008. “Death Toll Exceeded
70,000 in Europe during the Summer of 2003.” Comptes rendus
biologies 331(2): 171–178.
195. Ahmedabad Heat Action Plan 2017: Guide to Extreme Heat
Planning in Ahmedabad, India. https://www.nrdc.org/sites/
default/files/ahmedabad-heat-action-plan-2017.pdf.
196. Mogelgaard, K., A. Vansh Bahadur, C. Chan et al. 2018.
“Integrating Adaptation into Social and Economic Development:
Insights from Some “Early Movers.” Rotterdam and Washington,
DC. Available online at www.gca.org.
197. UNDRR. 2011. Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk
Reduction.
198. Hallegatte, S. 2012. “A Cost Effective Solution to Reduce Disaster
Losses in Developing Countries: Hydro-meteorological Services,
Early Warning, and Evacuation.” World Bank Policy Research
Working Paper 6058. See also Rogers, D. and Tsirkunov, V. 2011.
Implementing Hazard Early Warning Systems. Washington, DC:
Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction. Thielen-del Pozo, J.,
Thiemig, V., Pappenberger, F., Revilla-Romero, B., Salamon, P., De
Groeve, T., and Hirpa, F. 2016. “The Benefit of Continental Flood
Early Warning Systems to Reduce the Impact of Flood Disasters”.
European Union Publications. Teisberg, T.J., and Weiher, R.F.
2009. “Background Paper on Assessment of the Economics of
Early Warning Systems for Disaster Risk Reduction.” Submitted
to the World Bank Group, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction
and Recovery by Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC).
199. Turco, M., Rosa-Cánovas, J.J., Bedia, J., Jerez, S., Montávez,
J.P., Llasat, M.C., and Provenzale, A. 2018. “Exacerbated Fires
in Mediterranean Europe due to Anthropogenic Warming
Projected with Non-stationary Climate-Fire Models.” Nature
Communications 9(1): 3821. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-06358-z.
200. One ex-ante study in Sudan suggests a 50 percent reduction:
Rüth, A., Fontaine, L., Coughlan de Perez, E., Kampfer, K., Wyjad,
K., Destrooper, M., Amuron, I., et al. 2017. “Forecast-Based
Financing, Early Warning, and Early Action: A Cutting-Edge
Strategy for the International Humanitarian Community.” In
Routledge Companion to Media and Humanitarian Action,
135–149. London: Routledge.
201. Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. 2015. “‘Humanitarian
History’ Made as Uganda Red Cross Launched Forecast-Based
Financing for Real.” November 15. https://www.climatecentre.
org/news/657/a-humanitarian-historya-made-as-uganda-redcross-launches-forecast-based-financing-for-real.
202. Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J., and Walsh, B. 2019. Building Back
Better: Achieving Resilience through Stronger, Faster, and More
Inclusive Post-disaster Reconstruction. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.
org/handle/10986/29867.
203. Larsen, G., Smith, C., Krishnan, N., Weischer, L., Bartosch, S., and
Fekete, H. 2018. “Toward Paris Alignment: How the Multilateral
Development Banks Can Better Support the Paris Agreement.”
World Resources Institute. https://www.wri.org/publication/
toward-paris-alignment.

80

Global Commission on Adaptation

204. Kalra, N., Hallegatte, S., Lempert, R., Brown, C., Fozzard, A.,
Gill, S., and Shah, A. 2014. “Agreeing on Robust Decisions:
New Processes for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty.”
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper. http://documents.
worldbank.org/curated/en/365031468338971343/Agreeingon-robust-decisions-new-processes-for-decision-making-underdeep-uncertainty.
205. CFD (Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures).
2017. Final Report: Recommendations of the Task Force on
Climate-Related Financial Disclosures. https://www.fsb-tcfd.org/
publications/final-recommendations-report/.
206. World Bank. 2019. The World Bank Group Action Plan on
Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience. Washington,
DC: World Bank. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/
en/519821547481031999/The-World-Bank-Groups-Action-Planon-Climate-Change-Adaptation-and-Resilience-Managing-Risksfor-a-More-Resilient-Future.pdf.
207. Climate Action in Financial Institutions. 2019. NGFS: A Call
for Action, Climate Change as a Source of Financial Risk.
Network for Greening the Financial System. April. https://www.
mainstreamingclimate.org/publication/ngfs-a-call-for-actionclimate-change-as-a-source-of-financial-risk/.
208. Oxford Policy Management. Forthcoming. “The Role of Domestic
Budgets in Financing Climate Adaptation.” Background paper for
the Global Commission on Adaptation.
209. Mitchell, T. 2015. “Debt Swaps for Climate Change Adaptation
and Mitigation: A Commonwealth Proposal.” Commonwealth
Secretariat Discussion Paper no. 19. London: Commonwealth
Secretariat. https://doi.org/10.14217/5js4t74262f7-en.
Fenton, A., Wright, H., Afionis, S., Paavola, J., and Huq, S. 2014.
“Debt Relief and Financing Climate Change Action.” Nature
Climate Change 4: 650–653. https://www.nature.com/articles/
nclimate2303.
210. Smiley, D. 2017. “Miami Gets $200 Million to Spend on Sea Rise
as Voters Pass Miami Forever Bond.” Miami Herald, November
7. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/
election/article183336291.html.
211. Prasad, R., and Sud, R. 2019. “Implementing Climate Change
Adaptation: Lessons from India’s National Adaptation Fund on
Climate Change (NAFCC).” Ministry of Environment, Forest and
Climate Change, Government of India. Climate Policy 19(3):
354–366. doi:10.1080/14693062.2018.1515061.
212. ICCAS (Integrated Climate Change Adaptation Strategies).
n.d. “National Intervention.” Grenadapts. http://www.iccas.
gd/?q=adaptation-strategies.
213. Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Klapper, L., Singer, D., Ansar, S. and Hess, J.
2018. The Global Findex Database 2017: Measuring Financial
Inclusion and the Fintech Revolution. Washington, DC: World
Bank. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC by 3.0 IGO.
doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1259-0.
214. Maj Invest. n.d. “Current Investments.” https://majinvest.com/
en/equity-international/financial-inclusion/investments/currentinvestments/.
215. UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). 2016. The
Adaptation Finance Gap Report 2016.

216. CPI (Climate Policy Initiative). 2019. “Tracking Adaptation Finance
Flows: A Snapshot of Global Adaptation Investment and Tracking
Methods.” Background Paper for the Global Commission on
Adaptation.

230. CDP. 2019. Major Risk or Rosy Opportunity: Are Companies Ready
for Climate Change? https://www.cdp.net/en/research/globalreports/global-climate-change-report-2018/climate-report-risksand-opportunities.

217. EBRD (2019). Joint Report on MDBs and Climate Finance. http://
www.ebrd.com/2018-joint-report-on-mdbs-climate-finance.

231. UIA (Urban Innovative Actions). 2019. “Greater Manchester.”
https://www.uia-initiative.eu/en/uia-cities/greater-manchester.

218. GCF (Green Climate Fund). 2019. “Strategic Programming for the
Green Climate Fund First Replenishment.” Meeting of the Board,
February 26–28. GCF/B.22/Inf.12. https://www.greenclimate.
fund/documents/20182/1424894/GCF_B.22_Inf.12_-_
Strategic_Programming_for_the_Green_Climate_Fund_First_
Replenishment.pdf/9933d93d-2673-022c-8c1b-cd5213973674.

232. TCFD. 2017. Final Report: Recommendations of the Task Force
on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures. https://www.fsbtcfd.org/publications/final-recommendations-report/. SASB
(Sustainability Accounting Standards Board). 2018. “Download
Current Standards.” https://www.sasb.org/standards-overview/
download-current-standards/.

219. IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2017. Seeking Sustainable
Growth: Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges. World
Economic Outlook, October. Washington, DC: IMF. https://
www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2017/09/19/worldeconomic-outlook-october-2017.

233. Templeton, G. 2019. “Measuring and Valuing Adaptation to
Climate Change.” Background paper for Global Commission on
Adaptation.

220. UNFCCC. 2015. Paris Agreement. Article 9, paragraph 4.
221. World Bank. 2019. The World Bank Group Action Plan on Climate
Change Adaptation and Resilience.
222. Hallegatte, S., et al. 2016. Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of
Climate Change on Poverty. Washington, DC: World Bank.
223. IMF. 2019. “Building Resilience in Developing Countries
Vulnerable to Large Natural Disasters.” Policy Paper, June
26. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/
Issues/2019/06/24/Building-Resilience-in-Developing-CountriesVulnerable-to-Large-Natural-Disasters-47020.
224. Oxfam. 2018. “Facing Risk: Options and Challenges in Ensuring
That Climate/Disaster Risk Finance and Insurance Deliver for
Poor People.” Briefing Paper, April. https://www.oxfam.org/
en/research/facing-risk-options-and-challenges-ensuringclimatedisaster-risk-finance-and-insurance.
225. See, e.g., OECD. 2015. Disaster Risk Financing: A Global Survey
of Practices and Challenges. https://www.oecd.org/daf/fin/
insurance/OECD-Disaster-Risk-Financing-a-global-survey-ofpractices-and-challenges.pdf.

234. PRI (Principles for Responsible Investment). 2017.
“Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-Related
Financial Disclosures—Review of Local Relevance:
France.” Country Review Paper. https://www.unpri.org/
download?ac=4308.
235. UK HM Treasury and Department for Business, Energy and
Industrial Strategy. 2019. “Green Finance Strategy.” July. https://
www.gov.uk/government/publications/green-finance-strategy.
236. Blended Finance Taskforce. 2018. “Better Finance, Better World.”
Consultation Paper. http://s3.amazonaws.com/aws-bsdc/BFT_
BetterFinance_final_01192018.pdf.
237. GEF. 2019. “Update on the Challenge Program for Adaptation
Innovation under the SCCF and the LDCF.” https://www.thegef.
org/council-meeting-documents/update-challenge-programadaptation-innovation-under-sccf-and-ldcf.
238. Climate Finance Lab. “Climate Resilience and Adaptation Finance
& Technology Transfer Facility.” https://www.climatefinancelab.
org/project/climate-resilience-adaptation-financetransfer-facilitycraft/.

226. World Bank. 2018. “Kenya: Disaster Risk Management
Development Policy Financing with a Catastrophe Deferred
Drawdown Option Project.” https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/
loans-credits/2018/06/21/kenya-disaster-risk-managementdevelopment-policy-financing-with-a-catastrophe-deferreddrawdown-option.
227. Martinez-Diaz, L., Sidner, L., and McClamrock, J. 2019. “The
Future of Disaster Risk Pooling for Developing Countries: Where
Do We Go from Here?” World Resources Institute, September.
228. A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S. 2018. 2018 Sustainability Report.
https://www.maersk.com/-/media/ml/about/sustainability/
sustainability-new/files/apmm_sustainability_report_2018_
a4_190220.pdf.
229. African Development Bank Group (AfDB). n.d. “African Financial
Alliance on Climate Change (AFAC).” https://www.afdb.org/en/
topics-and-sectors/initiatives-partnerships/african-financialalliance-on-climate-change-afac.

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

September 2019

81

PHOTO CREDITS
Cover: A woman harvesting rice in Nepal. Credit: Neil Palmer/CIAT; Foreword: Urban gardens in Milan, Italy. Credit: Shutterstock;
Executive Summary: Eastern Scheldt storm surge barrier designed to protect the Netherlands from flooding from the North Sea.
Credit: Shutterstock; Part I: Preperations underway in Mozambique in advance of Cyclone Idai. Credit: Denis Onyodi/IFRC-DRKClimate Centre; Part II: Clare Mukankusi, plant breeder at The International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), in Kawanda,
Uganda. She leads breeding efforts for CIAT’s bean genebank, working with farmers to preserve beans and maintain genetic
diversity in the genebank. Credit: Georgina Smith/CIAT; Part III: Christel Jacques leads her Wildlife Club on an outing to learn about
mangroves. The Wildlife Clubs of Seychelles are school-based clubs that teach children how to be environmentally friendly citizens.
Credit: Ryan Brown/UN Women.

Copyright 2019 Global Commission on Adaptation. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
To view a copy of the license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

WILHELMINAKADE 149C

10 G STREET NE

3072 AP ROTTERDAM

SUITE 800

THE NETHERLANDS

WASHINGTON, DC 20002, USA

+31(0)88-3717800

+1 (202) 729-7600

WWW. GCA.ORG

WWW.WRI.ORG