Booz & Company

Amsterdam, June 9th

Examination of NS forecasts of
an additional Hoogeveen IC stop

This document is confidential and is intended solely for the use and information of the client to whom it is addressed.

This report was commissioned by, and prepared for, Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat by Booz & Company. The findings and conclusions set forth in the report represent our best professional judgment
based on information made available to it by the Ministry, NS and others. We have relied on, and not independently verified, data provided to it by such sources and on secondary sources of information
cited in the report. We note that if the information provided to us by such sources or obtained from secondary sources proves to be incorrect, the conclusions stated in our report could also be incorrect.

Introduction

Booz & Company have undertaken an examination of the NS
models that forecast the impact of an additional IC stop Hgv
Current service
Groningen - Zwolle corridor
Train

Stops

Comments
Departure

1x Intercity Groningen – Assen– Zwolle – .44
Den Haag
1x Intercity Groningen – stopping –
Zwolle – Schiphol

.04

1x Sprinter Groningen – Zwolle

.25

NS 2010 plan
Train

Stops

Departure

2x Intercity Groningen – Assen – Zwolle .46/.16
Den Haag (1x) - Schiphol (1x)
2x Sprinter Groningen – Zwolle

.02/.32

Consequence

 NS have proposed a new 2010 timetable which will
increase the frequency between Zwolle and Groningen
– Frequency will be increased from 3 to 4 trains per hour
– The changes in timetable will only have effect on
weekdays
 As a consequence, the fast Intercity will omit Meppel,
Hoogeveen, Beilen and Haren
 These stations will not be served by IC’s in the new
timetables which will have consequences for the transits of
passengers travelling longer distances
– Current IC passengers who travel to the Randstad from
these stations will now have to transfer in Zwolle
– Current Sprinter passengers who travel to Utrecht and
further have to transfer in Zwolle instead of Amersfoort
 The Dutch parliament has asked for an examination of the
NS forecasts for an additional Hoogeveen IC stop

 Meppel1), Hoogeveen, Beilen and Haren will
not be served by IC’s in the new timetable
1)
Meppel will be served by IC’s to and from Leeuwarden
Source: NS
Booz & Company

090610_ministry_FINAL_examination of NS forecasts of an additional Hgv IC stop.ppt

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Questions asked

We have been asked to answer three questions and undertake
sensitivity analysis with alternative assumptions from Hoogeveen
1. Can Booz & Company confirm that NS have used their model ‘Pact van
Haubrich’ to forecast the effects of the new proposed 2010 timetable on the
Zwolle- Groningen corridor (without Hoogeveen as IC stop)?
Questions
2. Can Booz & Company confirm that NS have used the same model to
forecast the effects of an additional IC stop at Hoogeveen
3. Can Booz & Company confirm that the two models use an internally
consistent methodology and assumptions and provide consistent outputs?

Sensitivity
analysis

4. Examine Hoogeveen growth forecasts based on the documentation provided
by the Ministry (letter of the municipality of Hoogeveen send to NS, dated
12 February 2009) and undertake a sensitivity test of NS's model to changes
in growth forecasts
5. Undertake sensitivity test of NS's model on alternative dwelling times at
Hoogeveen

Source: Terms of Reference Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
Note:
Booz & Company have not been asked to assess the models and the correctness of the input data
Booz & Company

090610_ministry_FINAL_examination of NS forecasts of an additional Hgv IC stop.ppt

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Conclusion (1/2)

NS models use an internally consistent methodology
and assumptions and provide consistent outputs - once the
input data has been corrected
 NS have used the model ‘Pact van Haubrich’ to forecast additional passenger kilometers for the new
2010 timetable (Zwolle - Groningen corridor)
– NS models indicate 52,000 additional passenger kilometers per day will be gained
– As communicated to the parliament, this results in between 13 and 15 million additional passenger
kilometers per year
 NS have used the same model to forecast the impact if the inclusion of Hoogeveen in the new
timetable as IC stop - this results in a reduction of 25,000 passenger kilometers per day
 These forecasts were made at different time points and were not consistent in terms of input data
– Both calculations used the most up to date and therefore different base data
– Effects were calculated on passenger groups, but these groups consisted of different passengers in
each scenario
 NS reran their forecasts using consistent base data and the same passengers groups on our request this shows similar results for the timetable effect and similar kilometers lost for the Hoogeveen IC stop
compared to the initial forecasts
 Therefore - even though NS’s initial forecasts for the two scenarios were not based upon consistent
input data - we can conclude that the forecasts use an internally consistent methodology
and assumptions and provide consistent outputs - once the input data has been corrected

Booz & Company

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Conclusion (2/2)

Sensitivity analysis of NS’s models for alternative assumptions
from Hoogeveen still indicate passengers kilometers are lost
 NS models indicate 23,000 - 25,000 passenger kilometers are lost when Hoogeveen is added as IC stop
compared to the new timetable without Hoogeveen as IC stop
 We undertook sensitivity analyses using alternative assumptions on Hoogeveen growth and dwelling time at
the Hoogeveen station
– Hoogeveen claims to grow demand by 50% in 1 or 2 years due to local investments in station quality and
additional P + R places
– According to Hoogeveen, 1.5 minutes dwelling time would be achievable for an IC stop at Hoogeveen
station
 NS’s models indicate between 18,000 and 19,000 passenger kilometers per day are lost when Hoogeveen
demand grows 50% in 1 or 2 years
– However, we have not assessed why Hoogeveen would grow by 50% and other neighboring stations
would not
– We did add a 10% growth scenario for comparison which shows a reduction of 22,000 - 24,000 passenger
kilometers per day
 NS’s models are sensitive to changes in dwelling time at Hoogeveen but even for 1.5 min the model
indicates 9,000 - 10,000 passenger kilometers are lost
 Both sensitivity analyses combined indicate that in the most optimistic scenario (1.5 min dwelling time and
50% growth) for Hoogeveen between 3,000 and 4,000 passenger kilometers per day are lost when
Hoogeveen is added as IC stop
 Therefore we conclude that NS’s models fed with the Hoogeveen assumptions on dwelling time and
demand growth still indicate passenger kilometer losses
Booz & Company

090610_ministry_FINAL_examination of NS forecasts of an additional Hgv IC stop.ppt

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1. Forecast proposed timetable change

NS have used a model to forecast over 50,000 additional passenger
kms for the proposed 2010 timetable (Zwolle - Groningen)
Forecasted additional passenger kilometer
breakdown due to the new timetable
In

1000 km/day

st
foreca
S
N
l
ia
it

52.3
7.4

5.9

8.6

42.2
IC;
Sprinter;
Sprinter;
IC;
long distance transit to IC Asn, Gn - Zl Asn, Gn - Zl
long distance

Total effect

Passenger groups used for this forecast
Group

Comments

IC long distance

Current stopping IC becomes faster, 2
IC’s will leave every 30 min

Sprinter, transit to IC long
distance

Passengers from the stopping stations
have to transfer in Zwolle when travelling
to Randstad

Sprinter, Asn, Gn - Zl

2 sprinters leave every 30 min. and
shorter travel time because of faster
rolling stock

IC Asn, Gn - Zl

IC’s leave every 30 min, are faster and
there are more trains (incl. sprinters)

Comments
 NS separated passengers in four main groups
that are affected by the new timetable
 NS calculated the impacts for each group in
terms of trips, passenger kilometers and
revenues in their model ‘Pact van Haubrich’
 The NS models indicate that the new proposed
timetable for the Groningen - Zwolle corridor will
result in over 50,000 additional passenger
kilometers per day
– On a yearly basis this is estimated to amount
between 13 and 15 million kilometers

Note:
Booz & Company have not audited this model or the input data used
Source: NS
Booz & Company

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2. Forecast additional Hgv IC stop

NS used the same model to forecast a decrease in passenger
kilometers when Hoogeveen is included as IC stop
Breakdown of forecasted reduction
of passenger kilometer with Hgv IC stop
ast
S forec
N
l
ia
it
In

4.5

Comments

1000 km/day
7.6

 NS separated passengers in four groups that are
affected by an additional IC stop

11.3
25.7
-24.9

IC long distance; IC vs sprinter
Hgv-Randstad Hgv-Zl,As,Gn

IC Asn,Gn-Zl IC long distance;
Gn,As-Randstad

Total

Passenger groups used for this forecast
Group

Comments

IC long distance;
Hgv - Randstad

Higher frequency + no transit for passengers
between Hoogeveen and Randstad

IC vs sprinter; Hgv Zl, As, Gn

Higher frequency for passengers between
Hoogeveen and IC stops on the corridor

IC Asn, Gn - Zl

Longer travel times for passengers between
Groningen and other IC stops

IC long distance;
Gn, As - Randstad

Longer travel times for passengers between
Groningen, Assen and the Randstad

 NS calculated the impacts for each group in
terms of trips, passenger kilometers and
revenues in their model ‘Pact van Haubrich’
 The NS models indicate that the additional
Hoogeveen IC stop will result in 25,000
passenger kilometers per day lost
– On a yearly basis this is estimated to amount
around 6.5 million kilometers

Note:
Booz & Company have not audited this model or the input data used
Source: NS
Booz & Company

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2. Forecast additional Hgv IC stop

The additional passenger kilometers won at Hgv do not outweigh
losses elsewhere, overall resulting in revenue losses

Demand (trips/day)

Pass. Kms (1000/day)

NS forecasts of the effects of Hoogeveen IC stop
Initial NS forecast

7.6
4.5

 The additional stop at Hoogeveen will result
in an increase in demand and more trips
from/to Hoogeveen

11.3
25.7
-24.9

IC long distance; IC vs sprinter
Hgv-Randstad Hgv-Zl,As,Gn

149
33

IC Asn,Gn-Zl IC long distance;
Gn,As-Randstad

Total

113

-64
IC Asn,Gn-Zl IC long distance;
Gn,As-Randstad

 However, most trips generated at
Hoogeveen are on the short routes to Zwolle,
Assen or Groningen which generate
relatively little passenger kilometers
 The small decrease in demand on the longer
routes from Groningen or Assen to the
Randstad results in relatively more
passenger kilometers lost because these
trips are longer

133

IC long distance; IC vs sprinter
Hgv-Randstad Hgv-Zl,As,Gn

Comments

Total

 As revenues are based on passenger
kilometers, the addition of Hoogeveen as IC
stop results in a decrease in revenues

Source: NS
Booz & Company

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3. Consistency in forecasting

NS’s initial forecasts did not use the same input data but NS redid
their forecasts using consistent input
The initial forecast were not made consistently but for good reasons…

…and after NS made some changes we can
confirm that the models are consistent

 NS presented their forecast for the new 2010 timetable for
the Groningen - Zwolle corridor in September 2008 using
the most recent and appropriate data for this forecast
– NS used 2006 origin-destination matrix data
– The volumes were grouped in four crude passenger
groups that would be affected by the changes
 On request of the Ministry, NS made a forecast for the
effects of including Hoogeveen as a IC stop in March
2009 using the most recent data available
– NS used 2007 allocation data from TRANS systems
– The volumes were grouped in four different passenger
groups that would be affected by the additional stops
 We have asked NS to redo their analyses using consistent
input data
– Both analyses should use the same base data (year
and source)
– And passenger groups should comprise the same
passengers, or lines should be treated individually

 We conclude that the methodology and input data are
consistently applied for both the forecast of the effect of the
new timetable and the effect of an additional IC stop at
Hoogeveen

Note:

– Elasticities are applied consistently in both forecasts
– Assumptions on the Generalized Journey Time are
consistent between the models and GJT is calculated
consistently
– Base volumes are from the same year and source
– Effects of both changes are calculated on the same
group of passengers

Booz & Company have not assessed the correctness of the input data nor the correctness of all the model assumptions

Booz & Company

090610_ministry_FINAL_examination of NS forecasts of an additional Hgv IC stop.ppt

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3. Consistency in forecasting

The consistent model shows similar results for the timetable effect
and similar kms lost for the Hgv stop compared to initial forecasts
Comparison of the initial forecasts with the
forecasts using the consistent input
Passengers kilometers, x1000/dag

 The initial forecasted passenger kilometers for the
effects of the new proposed 2010 timetable and the
additional Hoogeveen IC stop are compared with the
new forecasts based on consistent input data

50.9

 There are several differences between the models:
– The consistent forecasts are based on the same base
year (2007) whereas in the initial forecasts 2006 and
2007 were used for the different forecasts
– The consistent forecasts are based on the same
source of the base volumes whereas in the initial
forecasts TRANS and OD matrix data were used for
the different forecasts
– In the consistent forecasts are calculated for
individual lines whereas the initial models used
different passenger groups

-3%
52.3

Comments

Initial forecast
Consistent forecasts

-7%

-24.9
Impact of new timetable

-23.1

Impact of
Hoogeveen IC stop

 The consistent models forecast a 7% lower reduction in
passenger kilometers than NS’s initial model, but still
results in passenger kilometers lost

Source: NS, Booz & Company analysis
Booz & Company

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4. Sensitivity analysis - Hgv growth

Higher growth assumptions for Hoogeveen still result in
passenger kilometers lost with similar impacts in both forecasts
Impacts of Hvg IC stop with 50% Hgv growth
ast
S forec
Initial N

Passenger group

Base
volume

50% Hgv Additional Additional
growth
trips
pass. kms

Hgv - Randstad

575

862

50

6,754

Hgv - Zl, As, Gn

2,446

3,669

224

11,435

Gn - As, Zl

5,176

5,176

-113

-11,315

Gn, As - Randstad

9,757

9,757

-133

-25,707

TOTAL

+ 28

- 18,832

Sensitivity analyses on NS’s initial and consistent forecasts
Impacts of Hgv IC stop in base case, 10% and 50% Hgv growth,
Pass. kms x1000/day

-24.9

-23.1

Base case

-23.7

-22.0

10% Hgv growth
Initial forecast

-18.8

-17.7

50% Hgv growth

Consistent forecast

Hoogeveen growth assumptions
 We undertook sensitivity analyses on Hoogeveen growth
assumptions in NS’s models
 Hoogeveen claims to grow demand by 50% in 1 or 2
years
 The municipality plans to add 200 P+R spaces and
improve the station quality
 A 50% growth scenario shows growth in the number of
trips, but a decrease in passenger kilometers of 19,000
per day
 We have also added a 10% growth scenario for
Hoogeveen for comparison which shows 24,000
passenger kilometers lost
– Assuming the additional 200 P+R places would be
filled by new passengers, this would give 10% growth
in demand
– However, consultants experience is that at the most
30% of the parking will be used by new users,
resulting in a 3% increase in rail demand
– Extensive station improvements are seen as
generating 2-5 % additional demand in the
consultants experience
 The sensitivity analyses on NS’s initial forecasts are
broadly in line with the forecasts using consistent input

Note:
Booz & Company have not assessed the plausibility of Hoogeveen’s growth assumptions
Source: NS, Letter from the municipality of Hoogeveen to NS, dated 12 February 2009, Booz & Company analysis
Booz & Company

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5. Sensitivity analysis - Hgv dwelling time

NS’s model is sensitive to changes in dwelling time at Hoogeveen,
but still outputs a loss in passenger kilometers
Sensitivity analysis on dwelling time
st
foreca
S
N
l
ia
Init

Hoogeveen dwelling time

for Hoogeveen as IC station
Dwelling time

Additional
passenger kms

Additional
trips

Hgv Alternative

1.5

-10,086

35

NS low

2

-17,491

-14

NS base

2.5

-24,895

-64

NS high

3

-32,299

-113

 We undertook sensitivity analyses on dwelling time
at Hoogeveen station in NS’s models
 NS indicated that the dwelling time at the
Hoogeveen stop would be within the range of 2-3
minutes
 In their model calculation they use an average of 2.5
minute as NS operational models indicate a 2
minute stop from Groningen - Zwolle and a 3 minute
stop vice versa is minimum

Sensitivity analyses on NS’s initial and consistent forecasts  The municipality of Hoogeveen, however, indicated
Impacts of Hgv IC stop in base case , 2 and 1.5 min dwelling time
Pass. kms x1000/day

-10.1
-24.9

-23.1

Base case

-17.5

2 min dwelling time
Initial forecast

-8.6

-15.8
1.5 min dwelling time

Consistent forecast

that they believe 1.5 minutes would be achievable
 We used NS’s model to calculate the impacts of the
Hoogeveen stop using Hoogeveen’s alternative
dwelling time of 1.5 min
– In that case, 10,000 passenger kilometers are
lost, but trips are gained
– These results are in line with the 8,600 passenger
kilometers in the forecast based on consistent
input data

Note:
Booz & Company have not assessed the plausibility of Hoogeveen’s growth assumptions
Source: NS, Letter from the municipality of Hoogeveen to NS, dated 12 February 2009, Booz & Company analysis
Booz & Company

090610_ministry_FINAL_examination of NS forecasts of an additional Hgv IC stop.ppt

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5. Sensitivity analysis - combined

Even in Hgv’s most optimistic scenario, NS models indicate
passenger kilometers lost when Hoogeveen is included as IC stop
Forecasted pass km loss breakdown with Hgv IC stop
1.5 min dwelling time, 50% Hgv growth (1000 km/day)
al N
Initi

st
reca
o
f
S

Comments

6.8

11.4

 For the most optimistic scenario for Hoogeveen the
15.4
NS models indicate 4,000 passenger kilometers lost
6.8
and 126 trips gained
– We combined previous sensitivity analyses and
-4.0
thereby creating the most optimistic scenario for
IC long distance; IC vs sprinter
IC Asn,Gn-Zl IC long distance;
Total
Hoogeveen: 1.5 min dwelling time and 50%
Hgv-Randstad Hgv-Zl,As,Gn
Gn,As-Randstad
growth
– The additional trips gained still result in passenger
Sensitivity analyses on NS’s initial and consistent forecasts
kilometer lost as the trips gained are on short
Impacts of Hgv IC stop in base case and combined sensitivity tests
distances
Pass. kms x1000/day
-4.0
-24.9

-3.3

 Both sensitivity analyses combined still result in
passenger kilometers lost when Hoogeveen is
added as IC stop, albeit less than in NS’s base case

-23.1

Base case

Sensitivity tests combined

Initial forecast

Consistent forecast

Note:
Booz & Company have not assessed the plausibility of NS assumptions or Hoogeveen’s alternative assumptions on dwelling time or growth
Source: NS, Booz & Company analysis
Booz & Company

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