Outlook
2021

Photo theme
The photos featured in this Outlook portray Dutch
Innovations.
The year 2020 was marked by the outbreak of the COVID-19
pandemic, which has had an enormous impact on global
health, the way our societies function and the global
economy. To be successful in overcoming a crisis it helps to
develop new methods of doing business and working
together, and hence it often requires innovations. This will
not only be the case for the COVID-19 pandemic, but also for
other challenges like climate change. The photos in this
Outlook show students, researchers and corporations in the
Netherlands working on innovations which are expected to
contribute to achieving results on relevant issues or that have
done so in the past.

In the Netherlands, this momentum is amplified by the
launch of the National Growth Fund. The government will
invest € 20 bn in the upcoming 5 years in projects that will
increase the future capacity for growth in the Netherlands.
The financing will be allocated towards projects in the areas
of knowledge development, infrastructure and research,
development and innovation.
The photos in this Outlook portray innovations that originate
from the Netherlands, innovations which currently take place
or are being developed in the Netherlands and they portray
areas in which the National Growth Fund aims to spark even
more innovation in the upcoming years.

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The other way around is also true, a crisis has many
downsides, but one of the positive aspects is that it also
brings along a momentum for change and innovation.

Outlook 2021 | 3

Contents
Preface

4

1	The economy and the budget
1.1 Economic Outlook
1.2 Budgetary outlook

5
6
11

2
2.1
2.2
2.3

14
15
19
23

Funding and issuance
Looking back on funding in 2020
Funding plan 2021
Policy framework debt management 2020-2025

3	Primary dealers and secondary markets
25
3.1 Primary Dealers and Commercial Paper Dealers in 2020 and 2021 26
3.2 Liquidity and secondary markets
28
Statistical appendix
1
Changes in long-term debt in 2020
2
Interest rate swaps
3
Key figures on individual bonds in 2020
4
Short-term debt and Eonia swaps in 2020

32
33
33
34
36

Photo captions
Highlights of the DSTA Outlook 2021
Contacts

38
40
40

Outlook 2021 | 4

Preface
In my preface of last year’s Outlook, I mentioned that 2019 was an eventful
year and I wondered what 2020 would bring…. Calling 2020 ‘eventful’ too,
would be an understatement. Words like ‘unprecedented’, ‘historic’ or
‘unimaginable’ seem more appropriate for the year in which the
coronavirus dominated our lives. Who would have thought the world would
change so drastically in a matter of months.
In last year’s preface, I also mentioned that the amount the DSTA was
expecting to finance in 2020, was still relatively modest. At that time, we
were looking at an overall funding need of about € 42 bn In March this year,
when it became clear that the coronavirus had also reached the
Netherlands and the country went into an ‘intelligent’ lockdown, the DSTA
– like every other organisation and company – started working from home
for most of its tasks and responsibilities. Two skeleton teams alternate
however between home and the office, ensuring continuity of our key
processes. At the same time, in order to finance the extraordinary measures
announced by the government to support the economy, we had to draw up
a completely new funding plan in a matter of days, covering almost three
times the funding need we had estimated at the beginning of the year.
Looking back at all this I am extremely proud of my team at the DSTA;
proud of their flexibility, resilience and professionalism while getting things
done under these extreme circumstances.
At the same time, we could not have been able to do all this without our
Primary Dealers, who are the linking pin between us and our investors.
Their advice, feedback and market insights are indispensable to us and I
would like to thank all our Dealers for their continued support.

Even though the future is still uncertain, I am hopeful. The reason for that
has to do with the theme of this Outlook, which is “Dutch innovations”.
History tells us that crises often serve as a breeding ground for great
innovations. The pictures in this Outlook show fantastic examples thereof.
I am confident that a few years from now we can look back at these difficult
times as a period that also sparked great progress in healthcare, science and
technology.
I look forward to next year - hopefully a little less eventful; and to seeing all
of you again – hopefully in person!
Elvira Eurlings
Agent of the DSTA

The economy and the budget | Outlook 2021 | 5

1	The economy and
the budget

The economy and the budget | Outlook 2021 | 6

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Economic impact coronavirus
In 2020 the COVID-19 pandemic had an impact on the Dutch economy that
was unprecedented in terms of its magnitude, particularly in the first half of
the year. The latest projections from the Netherlands Bureau for Economic
Policy Analysis (CPB) 1 estimate a decline in GDP of 4.2% in 2020. Although
this constitutes a very large economic contraction, it is less than was
expected halfway through the year and less than the estimates for almost
all of the Eurozone countries (see Figure 1). The decline in Coronavirus cases
and the gradual relaxation of containment measures over the summer
months helped economic activity bounce back relatively strongly in the
third quarter of the year. The performance of the Dutch economy in the
fourth quarter of 2020 remains to be seen though. The strong rise in the
number of infections and the containment measures in place since the
middle of October are expected to have a significant impact on production
and consumption numbers.

Figure 1 – International GDP development in % Q3 2020 vs. Q4 2019

Un

1.1 Economic Outlook

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10
Source: CPB, 26 November 2020

1

The Dutch economic outlook presented in this section is largely based on the 26 November 2020 update of the Macro Economic Outlook and the Dutch medium-term outlook,
both published by the independent Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
(CPB). The first publication is part of a regular cycle of economic forecasts during the year
on which the government builds its economic and budgetary policies. The publication
on the medium-term outlook contains trend estimates for the years covering a new
government period, which is foreseen for 2021-2025 (general elections will be held in the
Netherlands in March 2021). In the week following the publication of the DSTA Outlook,
the CPB will update its projections for the current and next year. The DSTA provides
updates of the economic outlook throughout the year in its Quarterly Outlooks.

This economic uncertainty remains for 2021 and beyond, although the
resilience of the Dutch economy exposed in the third quarter allows for
careful optimism. In 2021, the CPB expects the GDP growth rate to rise
towards 2.8% if Europe manages to sufficiently contain the pandemic (the
base-scenario, see Table 1). In case new waves of infections continue to
plague the continent while vaccines are not sufficiently effective or
available (the COVID start-stop-scenario), this estimate drops to 0.6% in
2021. For the medium term (2022-2025) the yearly GDP growth is estimated
to be 1.5% (see Table 2). This estimate includes a downward revision of
labour supply as the pandemic is expected to curb cross-border migration.

The economy and the budget | Outlook 2021 | 7

Furthermore, labour productivity is also revised downwards in these
medium term projections as the pandemic leads to smaller additions to the
capital stock.
Dutch labour market remains robust
In 2021 the year-end unemployment rate is projected to increase towards
6.1%. At the end of 2020, unemployment still stands at 4.1% of the labour
force, which is already a hike from the pre-crisis record low of 2.9% in
March 2020. Initially, the rise in unemployment mainly involved workers
with flexible and temporary contracts. So far, various support measures of
the Dutch government for employers, the self-employed and people
working on flexible contracts have helped to avoid a strong additional
increase. In the medium-term (2022-2025), the yearly unemployment rate
is estimated to be 4.5%, which is still well below the average expectations
for the euro area.
Low inflationary pressure and international trade uncertainty remain
The CPB forecasts HICP inflation to fall to 1.2% in 2020 which partly reflects
the negative shock to domestic demand and the fall in oil prices earlier this
year. It also reflects base effects of the VAT increase in 2019 and the fall in
energy related indirect taxes. Domestic demand and wages are not

expected to exert strong inflationary pressures in the coming years as
inflation is expected to rise marginally towards 1.3% in 2021. Also, despite
lingering uncertainties surrounding a “hard” Brexit, growth of household
consumption and exports are expected to rebound towards 3.7% and 2.6%
respectively in 2021.
Table 1 - Key economic figures for the Netherlands (short-term,
base-scenario)
% change y-o-y

2019

2020

2021

GDP

1.7

-4.2

2.8

Household consumption

1.5

-7.0

3.7

Government consumption

1.6

2.7

3.4

Investment (including inventories)

3.6

-7.8

3.4

Exports

2.7

-4.4

2.6

Imports

3.2

-4.8

3.6

Employment (in hours)

2.2

-3.8

1.4

%

2019

2020

2021

Unemployment (% labour force)

3.4

4.1

6.1

Inflation (HICP)

2.7

1.2

1.3

The economy and the budget | Outlook 2021 | 8

Source: CPB, 26 November 2020

Table 2 – Key economic figures for the Netherlands (medium-term)
% change y-o-y

2009/2013

2014/2017

2018/2021

2022/2025

GDP

-0.4

2.1

0.6

1.5

Household
consumption

-0.8

1.4

0.0

2.4

Government
consumption

0.8

0.7

2.4

1.3

Investment
(including
inventories)

-3.7

5.5

0.6

1.4

Exports

2.2

5.0

1.3

3.6

Imports

1.7

5.3

1.6

4.3

Employment (in
hours)

-0.6

1.6

0.6

0.9

2009/2013

2014/2017

2018/2021

2022/2025

Unemployment
(% labour force)

%

7.3

4.9

6.1

4.5

Inflation (HICP)

2.0

0.5

1.7

1.5

Source: CPB, 26 November 2020

The economy and the budget | Outlook 2021 | 9

A European response to the coronavirus

Figure 2 – Amount of financial support decided upon by the EC under SURE
(in bn €)2

Member States of the EU have reacted swiftly to the enormity of the
challenges posted by the COVID-19 crisis. The autumn forecasts of the EC
projects a fall in EU GDP by 7.4% in 2020, with economic activity barely
returning to its pre-crisis level by the end of 2022 and risks tilted to the
downside. To address the impact of the pandemic and its social-economic
consequences, to support a swift recovery and to help build a more resilient
economy, the EU is implementing various (financial) support programmes.
The “SURE” programme
On 19 May 2020, European Member States agreed to create the temporary
'Support to mitigate Unemployment Risk in an Emergency’ (SURE)
programme. This European instrument is available for Member States that
need to mobilise significant financial means to fight the negative economic
and social consequences of the coronavirus outbreak in their country. It can
in total provide financial assistance up to € 100 bn in the form of loans from
the EU to the affected Member States to address sudden increases in public
expenditure for the preservation of employment and health related costs.
At present, the council has approved loans for a total amount of € 90.3 bn
for 18 applicant countries (see figure 2). To finance the instrument, the EU is
issuing bonds, the first of which was issued on 20 October for an amount of
€ 17 bn. After the second and third issuance on 10 and 24 November 2020
respectively, a total of € 39.5 bn of social bonds has been raised by the EC.
The creditworthiness of the EU regarding loans issued under SURE is
supported by its own resources stemming from the EU-budget as well as by
€ 25 bn in additional bilateral guarantees from all EU members in
proportion to their gross national incomes.

7,8
Belgium
Bulgaria 0,5
2,0
Czech Republic
2,7
Greece
Hungary 0,5
Spain
1,0
Croatia
Italy
Cyprus 0,5
Latvia 0,2
Lithuania 0,6
Malta 0,2
Poland
5,9
Portugal
4,0
Romania
Slovakia 0,6
1,1
Slovenia
2,5
Ireland

0

5

21,3
27,4

11,2

10

15

20

25

Financial support (in bln.)
Source: European Commission, 16 November 2020. Numbers may differ due to rounding
differences.

2

The SURE-support for Ireland was not officially finalised at the end of November.

30

The economy and the budget | Outlook 2021 | 10

The Next Generation EU initiative
On 21 July 2020, EU leaders agreed to a recovery instrument (Next
generation EU- NGEU) of € 750 bn to combat the adverse effects of the
coronavirus. Its main element is the Recovery and Resilience Facility
comprising of € 672.5 bn of funds to support public investment and
structural reform: € 312 bn of which in grants and € 360 bn in loans. The
remainder is used to top up existing EU programs, such as ReactEU, the Just
Transition fund and the Agricultural fund for Rural Development. To finance
the NGEU, the EC is empowered to borrow up to € 750 bn on the capital
markets between 2021-2026. Furthermore, flexibility in the state aid rules
has been granted so governments in the EU can provide liquidity to the
economy to support citizens and save jobs. In addition, the ‘general escape
clause’ within the Stability and Growth Pact has been activated to allow for
maximum flexibility to countries’ budgetary policy. These economic support
measures complement the monetary stimulus provided by the European
Central Bank’s through its € 1,350 bn Pandemic Emergency Purchase
Programme (PEPP).

The economy and the budget | Outlook 2021 | 11

1.2 Budgetary outlook
Budget deficit is expected to narrow
In 2020, the general government budget is forecasted to reach a deficit of
-6.2% of GDP (see Table 3).3 Automatic stabilizers on both the revenue and
expenditure side, such as higher spending on social transfers and lower tax
revenues, contribute firmly to this estimate. According to the CPB, the
deficit will narrow gradually towards -4.6% in 2021 as revenues are
expected to increase in line with the projected recovery in the global
economy and promising messages of potential vaccines. The discretionary
measures implemented by the Netherlands to financially facilitate firms and
the self-employed have been extended until July 2021. Both the automatic
stabilizers and discretionary measures protect employment, especially in
the sectors most affected by the pandemic, support household disposable
income, absorb liquidity shocks and aim to move growth in the Netherlands
back to pre-pandemic levels.

Government debt increases, but stays below 60%
The Dutch State secured itself of healthy public finances in the period
before the pandemic which allow for the current extraordinary and
temporary government expenditures. The November update of the Budget
Memorandum 2021 forecasts the EMU-debt as a percentage of GDP to be
57.4% in 2020. This estimate has been revised downwards from numbers
projected in September 2020 because of the better than expected EMUbalance and GDP levels in Q3 2020. Furthermore, the DSTA has chosen to
unwind several in-the money swap portfolios with counterparties which
also had a reducing effect on the EMU-debt.
The CPB expects the government debt to increase to 59% of GDP in 2021.
This means that in the base-scenario the Dutch EMU-debt level is expected
to stay below 60%, even though the EU has decided to loosen the European
budgetary rules laid down in the Stability and Growth Pact. However, the
CPB does estimate the government debt to rise above 60% in 2021 in their
COVID start-stop-scenario.
Table 3 - Key budgetary figures for the Netherlands (% GDP)
2019

2020

2021

EMU-balance

1.7

-6.2

-4.6

EMU-debt

48.7

57.4

59.0

Source: Ministry of Finance, 30 November 2020

3

The Dutch budgetary outlook presented in this section is largely based on the December
Budget Memorandum 2020 that was presented by the government on the 30th November, as well as the Dutch medium-term outlook, published by the Netherlands Bureau for
Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) on 26 November 2020. The DSTA provides updates of the
budgetary outlook throughout the year in its Quarterly Outlooks.

The economy and the budget | Outlook 2021 | 12

Medium-term outlook
Although the Dutch economy is currently performing better than the
average of the Eurozone, it is important to take the challenges of future
generations into consideration. The CPB estimated the key public finance
figures for the years up to and including 2025, alongside their medium-term
economic projections (see Table 4). It is worth noting that these numbers
are based on the government policies that are in place today. The
government is currently taking various measures to boost long-term
productivity growth such as investing in knowledge development,
infrastructure and research through the National Growth Fund (outlined in
the section “Investing in the future”). Furthermore, there are additional
costs related to the execution of the Pension Agreement (also outlined in
“Investing in the future”). The medium-term budgetary figures also include
an increase in the budget for the SDE+ fund as part of the Dutch climate
agreement of June 2019.

Table 4 shows that the structural EMU-balance, which is the EMU-balance
corrected for the business cycle and one-offs, is currently less negative than
the EMU-balance as the Netherlands finds itself in a cyclical downturn and
the output gap is hence negative.
Table 4 - Key Figure public finances for the Netherlands 2021-2025 (% GDP)
EMU-balance

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

-4.6

-2.4

-1.6

-1.2

-1.2

Structural EMU budget-balance

-2.7

-1.4

-0.9

-0.7

-0.7

EMU-debt

59.0

59.5

59.8

59.8

59.7

Source: CPB, 26 November 2020

The economy and the budget | Outlook 2021 | 13

Investing in the future
National Growth Fund
On 7 September 2020, the Dutch government launched the so-called
‘National Growth Fund’. The purpose of the fund is to ensure and support
economic growth for future generations in the Netherlands. Over the next
five years, a total of € 20 bn will become available for public investments in
three main categories: knowledge development, physical infrastructure,
and research, innovation and development. An independent committee has
been established to assess each investment proposal in order to ensure an
objective allocation of means, in line with the purpose of the fund. After
five years, the fund will be evaluated and could be extended. Considering
the current state of the economy, the government decided against
budget-cuts to finance the fund. Instead, government expenditures will
increase and the necessary funding will be gradually borrowed on the
capital markets, tapping into the “triple A” borrower status of the
Netherlands and the current low interest rate environment
Pension Agreement
On 4 July 2020, the Dutch government and social partners (labour
organisations and employer representatives) reached consensus on the
implementation of the Pension Agreement made in 2019. This is an important
step towards a more modern and robust pension system in the Netherlands.
The Dutch pension system consists of three pillars: 1. A state pension for
everyone following statutory retirement (AOW) funded by social security
contributions and taxes; 2. Pension funds funded by compulsory
contributions of employees and employers; and 3. Private savings (through
life insurance policies or otherwise). Reform has taken place across the first

two pillars to make the system more sustainable and tailored to this day and
age. At the same time, the overall framework and its strengths – such as
solidarity, collective investing and compulsory participation – remain intact.
The most notable changes relate to the second pillar. Pension fund
entitlements will become more personal and transparent. Individuals will
gain clearer insights into the assets they have built up over the years. Their
pension will become more individually-based, while risks are still shared
collectively. In other words, fluctuations in overall pension assets (due to
the economy and the market) will be absorbed collectively, but individual
pension rights will become more dependent on age and actual
contributions made. It increases the likelihood of indexation in good times
and at the same time accepts reduced entitlements when pension fund
returns fall short.
Pension funds have to make all the necessary adjustments to the new
system at the latest on 1 January 2026. To make the transition, individuals
that are negatively affected by the new system will be compensated. In
addition, pension funds with a funding ratio of at least 90% will not be
obliged to cut pensions for 2020, as was the case in 2019.
As for the first pillar, important decisions have been made on the pace of
increase of the statutory retirement age for AOW. In 2020 and 2021 the
AOW-age remains 66 years and 4 months, after which it will increase by 3
months per year, until 67 years in 2024. From 2025 onwards the AOW-age
will increase by 8 months for each year of increase in life expectancy.
Moreover, a larger sum of € 1 bn (previously € 800 mln) has been made
available for social partners to make early retirement and other customised
pension arrangements with employees.

Funding and Issuance | Outlook 2021 | 14

2 Funding and issuance

Funding and Issuance | Outlook 2021 | 15

2.1 Looking back on funding in 2020
In the Outlook 2020 published in December 2019 the DSTA estimated its
borrowing requirement for 2020 to be € 42.0 bn. It was announced that the
capital market issuance would be € 21–26 bn while expecting the money
market ultimo 2020 to end up at € 16-18 bn. However, as the COVID-19
pandemic unfolded, the borrowing requirement drastically changed during
the year. At first the funding requirement dramatically increased, after
which these estimates were gradually adjusted downwards again from
the end of September onwards.
Despite the market turmoil, the interest rate environment for Dutch debt
on both the capital and the money market remained in negative territory
for the most part. Figure 3 shows the Dutch curve throughout the year with
the yield curve being entirely negative at the beginning of the last quarter.
While interest rates moved significantly during the year following market
developments and monetary operations, the DSTA was, just as in 2019, able
to obtain very favourable auction yields. Although 2020 presented an
unexpected challenge, the DSTA remained committed to its core values:
transparency, consistency and liquidity in executing its funding plan while
being flexible when needed.

Figure 3 - Dutch curve at the start of every quarter in 2020 (yield in %)
0,4
0,2
-0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8

3m 6m 2y 3y 4y 5y 6y 7y 8y 9y 10y 15y 20y 25y 30y
01-01-2020

01-04-2020

01-07-2020

01-10-2020

Source: Bloomberg.

Capital market issuance
The DSTA started off the year in January with the reopening of the DSL
0.50% 15 January 2040 in which it raised € 1.4 bn (including non-comp). This
was the first reopening of the DSTA’s inaugural Green bond that was initially
launched in May 2019. As the DSTA decided to launch its yearly 10-year
benchmark bond in March, this created the possibility to reopen the DSL
0.50% 15 July 2026 in February for € 1.5 bn (including non-comp).

Funding and Issuance | Outlook 2021 | 16

On 10 March 2020, just before the COVID-19 virus was declared a pandemic,
the DSL 0.00% 15 July 2030 was launched in a Dutch Direct Auction (DDA).
In this DDA an amount of € 5.99 bn was issued at a yield of -0.463%. At
closing, the book had reached € 17.5 bn in bids, resulting in a bid-to-cover
of 2.7. Of the total amount allocated, 69% went to real money accounts and
31% went to 'other' or so called fast money accounts.
As the COVID-19 crisis emerged in the Netherlands, the Dutch government
announced it would implement a massive and broad set of measures,
aimed at protecting jobs and mitigating the impact on the economy.
Therefore, the estimated borrowing requirement for 2020 rapidly
increased. Consequently, the DSTA published its Q2 issuance calendar in
which two DSL auctions were announced each month. At the end of April
the DSTA published a revised funding plan, in which it estimated a
borrowing requirement of € 135.8 bn. It was decided to raise the capital
market issuance in 2020 to a minimum of € 35 bn.

Moreover, the DSTA introduced a new 7-benchmark bond, the DSL 0.00 %
15 January 2027, which was launched via the screens of MTS on 26 May
2020 and raised € 5.7 bn (including non-comp). Next to this, the DSL 0.00%
15 July 2030 was reopened with three tap auctions in the second quarter
after the initial issuance earlier in the year bringing the total outstanding
amount to € 14.0 bn. After market consultation with our Primary Dealers,
the DSTA also issued € 1.4 bn (including non-comp) in the 2.75% 15 January
2047 and € 1.4 bn (including non-comp) in the 0.50 % 15 January 2040
Green bond during the second quarter of 2020.
Before the launch of the new 30-year bond in the third quarter the DSTA held
two tap auctions on the short end of the curve. An amount of € 3.4 bn
(including non-comp) was raised in the DSL 0.00 % 15 January 2027 and €2.25
bn in the 0.75 % 15 July 2028. On 22 September the DSTA launched the DSL
0.00% 15 January 2052 by means of a DDA. An amount of € 5.96 bn was raised
at a yield 0.028%. The final book consisted of bids amounting to € 19 bn,
resulting in a bid-to-cover of 3.2. Of the total amount allocated, 70% went to
real money accounts and 30% went to 'other' or so called fast money accounts.

Funding and Issuance | Outlook 2021 | 17

The DSTA announced in its Q4 Quarterly Outlook that the borrowing
requirement for 2020 had decreased to € 110.7 bn. Initially, three tap
auctions were planned for the fourth quarter, but as the funding need
continued to decline it was decided to cancel the reopening of an existing
DSL on 10 November. Therefore, two tap auctions remained in the DSL 0.00
% 15 January 2027. An amount of € 2.3 bn (including non-comp) was raised
in the first auction while an amount of € 1.6 bn was raised in the second and
final auction of the year, bringing the total outstanding amount to € 13.1 bn.
In the end, the total capital market issuance in nominal terms in 2020 was
€ 41.2 bn and the additional cash flow from DSLs not issued at par
amounted to € 2.3 bn.
Figure 4 – Cumulative capital market issuance in 2020 (€ bn)
50
40
30
20
10
0

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DSL January 2027 (new issuance)

DSL July 2030 (new issuance)

DSL January 2052 (new issuance)

Tap auctions existing DSLs

Money market
The DSTA uses various funding instruments in the money market.
Cornerstone of these instruments are the Dutch Treasury Certificates
(DTCs). The money market historically serves as a buffer when it comes to
accommodating changes in the funding need throughout the year. In 2020,
this buffer function proved to be essential to accommodate the sudden
large increase in the funding need that was estimated at the start of the
COVID-19 pandemic.
Consequently, the DSTA increased its call on the money market by issuing
more in its Dutch Treasury Certificate-programme and through issuance of
Global Commercial Paper (GCP). Normally issued every first and third
Monday of the month, the DSTA decided to hold DTC auctions every
Monday from the start of the second quarter. After market consultation
with Primary Dealers, 9 and 12 month DTC programmes were also
introduced in addition to the 3 and 6 month programs. When the funding
need eventually turned out to be lower than previously estimated as the
end of 2020 approached, the DSTA scaled back its DTC-issuance while
further issuance of GCP was not required. DTC-programmes were issued at
negative yields throughout 2020. The weighted average yield in the
auctions was -0.56%.

Funding and Issuance | Outlook 2021 | 18

Figure 5 - Amounts outstanding in Dutch Treasury Certificates
in 2020 (€ bn)
70
60
50
40

GCP programmes, with different kinds of investors and appetite for
different maturities, has proven to be of value to the DSTA and its investors.
As can be seen from Figure 6, ECP and USCP were heavily used around the
time of DSL redemptions and coupon payments in January and in April to
finance COVID-19 related expenditures.
Figure 6 - Amounts outstanding in Commercial Paper in 2020 (€ bn)
25

30
20
10

20
15

01
-0
120
20
01
-0
220
01
20
-0
320
01
2
-0 0
420
20
01
-0
520
20
01
-0
620
01
20
-0
720
20
01
-0
820
20
01
-0
920
01
20
-1
020
20
01
-1
120
20
01
-1
220
20

0

10
5

In 2020 (up to the end of November) the DSTA issued over € 63 bn in ECP
and USCP, compared to € 108 bn in 2019, € 180 bn in 2018 and € 97 bn in
2017. Although this amount is lower than in previous years, the maturity of
GCP issuances was significantly longer. The majority of this year’s issuance
was in US dollars (59% of the total amount). The combination of the two

0

01
-0
120
20
01
-0
220
01
20
-0
32
01 020
-0
420
20
01
-0
520
20
01
-0
620
01
20
-0
720
20
01
-0
820
20
01
-0
920
01
20
-1
020
20
01
-1
120
20
01
-1
220
20

In addition to DTCs, GCP continues to be an important instrument for the
DSTA. GCP adds flexibility since maturity, currency of denomination and
timing of the issuance can be tailored to specifically suit both the investors
and the DSTA.
GCP is issued as:
• ECP, available for non-US investors and issued in euros, US dollars,
British pounds, Swiss francs and Norwegian kroner;
• USCP, available for US investors and issued in US dollars.

ECP

USCP

Funding and Issuance | Outlook 2021 | 19

2.2 Funding plan 2021
Borrowing requirement
The preliminary borrowing requirement for the DSTA in 2021 is estimated to
amount to € 95.6 bn. However, this estimate is surrounded by uncertainties
concerning the development of the COVID-19 crisis. The DSTA will publish
updates during 2021 if new information about the funding need becomes
available through regular Quarterly Outlooks and press releases.

As usual at the start of the year, the borrowing requirement for the DSTA
consists of three components. Firstly, it is determined by redemptions of
long-term debt instruments. In 2021, only one DSL matures and needs to be
refinanced for an amount of € 16.5 bn. Secondly, short-term debt
instruments outstanding at the end of 2020 will roll over to the next year
and also need to be refinanced. The net money market ultimo 2020
(outstanding short-term debt instruments minus cash deposits held at the
central bank) is estimated to amount to € 41.1 bn. Thirdly, the expected cash
deficit for 2021 as estimated in the Budget Memorandum 2021 published in
September, stands at € 37.9 bn. All combined, these developments result in
a preliminary borrowing requirement for 2021 of € 95.6 bn, as illustrated in
Table 5. Rounding differences explain the residual 0.1 bn.
Table 5 – Estimated borrowing requirement for 2021 (€ bn)
Capital market redemptions 2021

16.5

Net money market ultimo 2020
(excluding cash collateral)

41.1

Cash deficit 2021*

37.9

Total borrowing requirement 2020

95.6

*A cash deficit is shown as a positive number because it increases the total borrowing
requirement.

Funding and Issuance | Outlook 2021 | 20

The first update of the borrowing requirement will be communicated in the
beginning of January to reflect the cash realisations of 2020 which affect the
net money market ultimo 2020 estimate.
Distribution between capital and money market issuances
Despite the aforementioned uncertainties about the funding need, the
DSTA continues to ensure liquidity across the curve by creating a balance
between the call on the capital market and the money market in 2021.
The DSTA has begun to gradually shift funding from the money market to
the capital market and will continue to do so in 2021 and the coming years.
This will contribute to the DSTA’s goal to lengthen the average maturity of
the debt and swap portfolio towards eight years in the coming years.
Given the current borrowing requirement of € 95.6 bn, the DSTA foresees
issuance of DSLs on the capital market for a total of € 50 bn in nominal terms.
As is normal practice, fluctuations in the funding need will be absorbed by the
call on the money market. More specifically: if during 2021 the funding need
turns out to be lower, the DSTA will reduce the current estimated money
market issuance while the call on the capital market will initially remain
unchanged. Only in a scenario in which the funding need turns out
significantly lower than currently estimated, the call on the capital market
might be reduced. In case the funding need turns out higher than € 95.6 bn,
the DSTA could increase the call on both the money- and capital market.
Capital market issuance in 2021
The aforementioned nominal call on the capital market of € 50 bn will
consist of the following issuances:
1. A new 8-year bond, the DSL 15 January 2029, will be launched in 2021
through the MTS platform (also used for tap auctions). The exact auction
date and target volume will be decided upon after consultation with our

Primary Dealers. The DSTA’s objective is to raise the total outstanding
amount of this new bond to a minimum of € 12 bn within 12 months via
several reopenings. For 2021, the DSTA foresees an indicative amount of
€ 10 bn in this bond.
2. A new 10-year benchmark bond, the DSL 15 July 2031, will be launched by
means of a DDA in February or March. The DSTA is committed to
bringing the outstanding volume of this bond to a minimum of € 12 bn
by the end of the year, but has the option to raise it further, for instance
if market appetite or the funding would allow for it.
3. The DSTA will issue a new 15-year DSL by means of a DDA to facilitate
strong market demand in the 15-year segment. The exact maturity date
of the bond will be decided upon in close consultation with our Primary
Dealers. The DSTA is committed to issue at least € 6 bn in 2021. This will
be done by means of the DDA and possibly one tap auction. Within a
few years after the initial issuance, the outstanding volume will be
increased to a minimum benchmark size of € 10 bn, as is regular practice
for longer-dated DSLs.
4. On 26 May 2020, the DSTA launched the DSL 15 January 2027 and raised
€ 6.0 bn. The DSTA is committed to increase the outstanding volume of
this bond to a size of € 15 bn within 12 months after the initial issuance.
After several reopenings the outstanding amount in this bond currently
stands at € 13.1 bn. Therefore, the DSTA will hold at least one more tap
auction in the DSL 15 January 2027 in 2021 to fulfil its commitment.
5. On 21 May 2019, the DSTA issued € 5.9 bn in the DSL 15 January 2040, its
first Green bond ever. The bond has been tapped twice in 2020, which
raised the outstanding volume to roughly € 9 bn. The DSTA will tap the
Green bond once more in 2021 to reach the committed benchmark size
of at least € 10 bn. The DSTA expects to issue more than the minimum
amount of € 1 bn needed, and has set the target volume for the auction
at € 1.5-2.5 bn. The proceeds of this auction will be used to finance green
expenditures in line with the Green Bond Framework.

Funding and Issuance | Outlook 2021 | 21

6. On 22 September 2020 the DSTA launched the DSL 15 January 2052 and
raised € 6.0 bn. The DSTA is committed to increase the outstanding
volume of the bond to a benchmark size of approximately € 10 bn within
a few years after the initial issuance. For 2021, an indicative amount of €
3 bn is foreseen to be issued in a minimum of two tap auctions.
7. In order to be able to respond to market demand and in line with the
DSTA’s goal to ensure and promote liquidity across the curve, the DSTA
opts to leave € 15 bn of the call on the capital market undetermined. The
DSTA has the option to reopen off-the-run DSLs in all maturity buckets,
irrespective of the already existing outstanding volumes. Moreover, the
DSTA could also decide to issue more than the indicated volumes in the
8-year, 10-year and 15-year DSLs that are to be launched in 2021 and in
the DSL 2052 and 2027. The DSTA will consult its Primary Dealers on the
choices regarding these issuances.
Table 6 – DSL issuance in 2021 (€ bn)
DSL issuance

Indicative amounts

New 8-year DSL

10

New 10-year DSL

12

New 15-year DSL

6

Reopening DSL Jan 2027

2

Reopening Green DSL 2040

2

Reopening DSL 2052

3

To be determined

15

Total DSL funding

50

Traditionally, DSL auctions can be scheduled on the second and the fourth
Tuesday of the month. In the first quarter of 2021 all of the auction windows
will be used. The DSTA will start with the reopening of the DSL 2052, the
DSTA’s on-the-run 30-year bond, on 14 January for a target volume of € 1 bn
to € 2 bn. On 26 January a tap auction for an existing DSL is planned. The

Funding and Issuance | Outlook 2021 | 22

exact DSL to be tapped will be decided upon consultation with our Primary
Dealers and will be announced on the Wednesday prior to 26 January. The
new 10-year DSL will be launched by means of a DDA in February or March.
Depending on the timing of the launch of the 10-year DSL, the DSTA will use
the other auction windows to reopen the on-the-run DSL 2027, to tap the
20-year Green bond and hold another tap auction for an existing DSL. More
details on the timing of these auctions are expected to be communicated
after determining the launch date of the new 10-year bond. Calendars for
the remainder of the year will be published shortly before the start of a
new quarter.
Table 7 – DSL calendar Q1 2021 (€ bn)
Auction date

Details

Target volume

12 January

Reopening 30-year bond:
DSL 15 January 2052

1–2

26 January

Tap of an existing DSL

To be announced*

February / March

New 10-year bond: DSL 15 July 2031

February / March**
February / March**
February / March**

Money market issuance in 2021
As usual, the DSTA will have regular money market issuances through its
DTC programmes. The schedule for 2021 follows the same basic pattern as
in previous years, where auction dates typically contain both a shorterdated programme and a longer-dated programme. Auctions are held on the
first and third Monday of the month. Similar to previous years, there will be
no DTC-line maturing in December 2021 as this appears to be a less
attractive programme for many market participants. Moreover, to better
meet investor demand at month end, DTC-programmes do not mature on
the last business day of the month, but on the second to last business day.
This means for example that the June 2021 DTC programme will mature on
29 instead of 30 June.
Table 8 – DTC calendar Q1 2021 (€ bn)
Auction date

Settlement date

Shorter-dated
programme

Longer-dated
programme

4-6

4 January

6 January

29 April 2021

29 June 2021

Reopening 20-year Green bond:
DSL 15 January 2040

1.5 – 2.5

18 January

20 January

29 April 2021

29 June 2021

1 February

3 February

28 May 2021

29 July 2021

Reopening 7-year bond:
DSL 15 January 2027

1.5 – 2.5

15 February

17 February

28 May 2021

29 July 2021

Tap of an existing DSL

To be announced*

1 March

3 March

29 June 2021

30 August 2021

15 March

17 March

29 June 2021

30 August 2021

* Target volume and other details will be announced at a later stage.
** Depending on the timing of the launch of the 10-year DSL.

Note: announcement of all auction details is on the Wednesday prior to the auction date (t-5).

Funding and Issuance | Outlook 2021 | 23

2.3 Policy framework debt management
		2020-2025

The purpose of the DSTA’s policy framework on debt management is to
finance debt at the lowest possible cost at an acceptable risk to the budget.
The 2020-2025 framework was announced to be evaluated in its entirety in
2026 and to be internally reviewed every other year, allowing for
adjustments if necessary. The first internal review will be carried out in 2021.
When the 2020-2025 framework was introduced, the DSTA communicated
the intention to allow for more flexibility, whilst adhering to its current
principles of consistency, transparency and liquidity. These principles are in
line with the international guidelines of the IMF and the World Bank for
efficient debt management.
Interest rate risk indicators
The policy framework contains two interest rate risk indicators:
• The average maturity of the debt portfolio, which is defined as the
average time to refixing interest rates of debt and swaps. This average
will gradually be extended from 6.6 years at the start of the new policy
framework towards 8 years, whilst allowing for fluctuations within a
range of 6 to 8 years.
• The 12-month refixing amount, which is defined as the nominal amount
of debt and swaps on which interest rates need to be refixed within the
next twelve months. The annual average of this amount cannot exceed
30% of the State debt.
The average maturity of the debt portfolio deals with medium- to longterm interest rate risk, and contributes to multi-annual stability of interest
rate costs. A cap on the 12-month refixing amount avoids undesirable short
term interest rate risk and prevents too much concentration in a single year.

Funding and Issuance | Outlook 2021 | 24

Table 9 – Targets and realisations of the DSTA’s risk indicators in
the 2020-2025 framework
Average maturity (end of year)
12-month refixing amount
(% State debt)

Target levels 2020-2025

Forecast 2020

6-8 years

6.9 years

at most 30%

18.8%

Source: DSTA, 9 december 2020.

Since the introduction of the 2020-2025 framework in 2019, the funding
need as well as the level of debt have significantly increased. Despite the
challenges, the DSTA has been operating within the interest risk limits at all
times. Most of the initial increase in the funding need was absorbed by the
money market which serves as the DSTA’s buffer. The additional capital
market increases were communicated to the market beforehand via an
updated funding plan and the Quarterly Outlooks of the DSTA. Started
already in 2020 and continuing in 2021, more money market funding will be
rolled over to longer maturities, contributing to reaching the target levels of
the DSTA’s risk indicators.
In DSTA’s 2020 Outlook it was already announced that an increase in the
12-month refixing amount was expected from 2019 onwards, as a result of
the composition of the remaining swap portfolio. With many payer swaps
expiring first, the payer swaps will gradually be outnumbered by the
longer-term receiver swaps. In 2020 the initial increase in the money
market due to Covid-19 also increased the 12-month refixing amount,
which is not desirable from an interest risk point of view. That is why the

DSTA has been unwinding receiver swaps during 2020, mainly anticipating
on the large number of payer swaps that will expire in 2021. Moreover,
if needed in the future, the DSTA is well positioned to enter into new swap
agreements to manage interest rate risk as it has implemented Eurex as a
central clearing party (CCP) in 2020.
Prepared for the future: TARGET2-T2S-Consolidation and Euro Shortterm rate (€STR)
The Euro system has launched a project to consolidate TARGET2 and T2S.
The Governing Council of the ECB has decided to extend the timeline of the
T2-T2S consolidation project by one year, following discussions with
Europe’s financial community. The project is now scheduled by the ECB to
go live in November 2022. The DSTA is on top of developments to ensure
that all ECB deadlines are met and to ensure that it continues to have access
to all payment services. Furthermore, from 2022 onwards, EONIA rates will
no longer exist. Any contract or payment based on EONIA must be based on
another rate by 31 December 2021. In line with market participants, the
DSTA has chosen €STR as the successor rate. With some counterparties, the
payments are now solely calculated on the basis of €STR and the DSTA will
continue to make this transition. In addition, the DSTA will shift from
executing EONIA swaps to executing €STR swaps in the first quarter of 2021.

Primary dealers and secondary markets | Outlook 2021 | 25

3	Primary dealers and
secondary markets

Primary dealers and secondary markets | Outlook 2021 | 26

3.1 Primary Dealers and Commercial
		Paper Dealers in 2020 and 2021
Ever since 1999, the DSTA uses Primary Dealers (PDs) for the promotion and
distribution of DSLs and DTCs in both the primary and secondary market of
Dutch government debt. PDs are selected for a period of one year and have
certain rights and obligations. First and foremost, PDs have the exclusive
right to participate in all auctions of the DSTA, including DDAs, tap auctions
and DTC tenders. In addition, access to the DSTA’s repo and strip facilities
for DSLs and DTCs is reserved only for PDs4. At the same time, PDs are
obliged to provide continuous bid and offer prices for Dutch government
securities and must report periodically on their secondary market activities.
Residual short-term funding needs are met by means of Commercial Paper
(CP), for which the DSTA uses Commercial Paper Dealers (CPDs). CPD’s are
divided into ECP and USCP-dealers.
Ranking 2020
PDs and CPDs are selected based on their performance in the relevant
markets for Dutch state securities in previous years. In addition, the DSTA
analyses the business plans and ambitions submitted by the (prospective)
dealers. The DSTA ranks its PDs based on a duration weighted system for
primary issuance. The weighting factors are assigned in relation to the DSL
maturities. The DSTA believes that a weighted issuance ranking provides
the right incentives for PDs to achieve a balanced demand for DSLs across
different maturities. Furthermore, the weighted issuance method optimally

4

An overview of the amount of stripped and restructured securities is available
on our website.

reflects the performance and commitment of a PD vis-à-vis the DSTA, given
that bonds with a higher duration entail more risk for a bank and face more
challenging market circumstances than shorter-dated bonds. In contrast,
DTC and CP rankings are based on unweighted primary market volumes in
euro equivalents. Table 10 shows this year’s top performers in DSL and DTC.
In the ECP and USCP markets ING Bank and Rabobank respectively
performed best in 2020.
Table 10 – Top Performers in the DSL and DTC market in 2020
Top 5 PDs for DSLs in 2020

Top 5 PDs for DTCs in 2020

1

ABNAMRO Bank

ABNAMRO Bank

2
3
4
5

Jefferies

Nordea

Citigroup

Goldman Sachs

Barclays

Citigroup

Nordea

HSBC France

Dealer selection and ranking 2021
For 2021, the DSTA will make several changes to its network of PDs. While
ING has decided to discontinue its primary dealership in government
securities for The Netherlands as of 1 January 2021, Bank of America will join
the DSTA’s network of Primary Dealers in 2021. In addition, the DSTA has
decided to remove the necessity for CPDs to be selected from the group of
PDs. Consequently, the DSTA will add Bred Banque Populaire to its list of
ECP dealers for 2021. Similarly, ING will continue working with the DSTA as
an ECP dealer next year. The DSTA is proud to present the following Primary
Dealers and Commercial Paper Dealers for 2021:

Primary dealers and secondary markets | Outlook 2021 | 27

Table 11 – List of the DSTA’s dealers in 2021, in alphabetical order
Name Bank

PD

ECP

ABNAMRO Bank

X

X

Bank of America

X

Barclays

X

Bred Banque

X

USCP

X

The DSTA will continue using a duration weighted system for primary
issuance to rank its PDs in 2021. Next year’s weighting factors for the
different maturity buckets are shown below.
Table 12 – DSL weighting factors for 2021 (per maturity bucket)
DSL maturing in …

X

Weighting factor

2021 - 2023

2

X

2024 – 2025

4

X

2026 – 2028

6

Citigroup

X

Goldman Sachs
HSBC France
ING Bank

X

X

X

2029 – 2030

8

2031 – 2033

10

2034 - 2039

15

2040 - 2046

18

Jefferies

X

NATIXIS

X

NatWest Markets

X

Nomura

X

2046 - 2051

20

Nordea

X

2052 and beyond

30

Rabobank

X

Société Générale

X

X

X

X

Primary dealers and secondary markets | Outlook 2021 | 28

3.2 Liquidity and secondary markets

Figure 7 - DSL turnover in the secondary market by residual maturity (€ bn)
90

Secondary market transactions
The DSTA requires PDs to provide monthly data on their secondary market
activity in Dutch securities. These transaction data contain information on
turnover, maturity, type of counterparty and region. Although the data over
2020 only cover trades by the DSTA’s 13 Primary Dealers, the acquired data
gives a general overview of trends in the secondary market. Figure 7 shows
data on DSL turnover in the secondary market by residual maturity. To be
able to compare the activity in the consecutive years, the turnover total for
each year is based on quarters one to three. Even though the funding need
increased sharply during the year, turnover in DSLs was not significantly
higher than during 2019. The only exception was the 5 to 7 year maturity
segment which saw the turnover more than double compared to 2019. This
increase is explained by the fact that issuance in this segment was muted
during 2019 but revived in 2020 with the launch of the DSL January 2027 in
late May. Overall, turnover in the first three quarters of 2020 stands at € 284
bn and is down by about € 20 bn compared to last year. Turnover volumes
in shorter-dated bonds have decreased again compared to last year. DSL
turnover in the shortest segment halved in 2020 which was the second year
of significant decline in a row. The 3 to 5 year segment also saw turnover
sharply decrease. Both observed trends may reflect, in some part, the
smaller issuance volume of the DSTA in those segments.

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

0-1

>1-3

>3-5

2018 (Q1-Q3)

>5-7

> 7 - 10

2019 (Q1-Q3)

> 10 - 15

> 15

2020 (Q1-Q3)

Source: DSTA Secondary Market Trade Reports

Figure 8 presents the reported DSL turnover by investor type. It shows that
secondary market trading on the interdealer market, which only includes
direct interdealer trades without the use of brokers, declined for the second
year in a row in nominal terms. This activity now only represents 2% of the
total trading activity. In contrast, 2020 saw an increase in trading activity
from both hedge funds and central banks and other public entities.
Especially this last investor category almost doubled in size both in nominal
and in relative terms.

Primary dealers and secondary markets | Outlook 2021 | 29

Figure 8 - Data on DSL turnover by investor type (€ bn)
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

2018 (Q1-Q3)

2019 (Q1-Q3)

Bank-Customer
Bank-Primary Dealer
Central Bank & Other Public Entity

Fund Manager
Hedge Fund
Inter Dealer

2020 (Q1-Q3)
Other

Source: DSTA Secondary Market Trade Reports

A geographical breakdown of secondary market turnover volumes, including
inter-dealer transactions, is shown below in Figure 9. In 2020, the Eurozone
made up most of the secondary market activity, followed by the nonEurozone European countries. The latter category mainly consists of Primary
Dealers based in the United Kingdom. Even though turnover for the Eurozone
fell compared to last year, the relative size has been stable over the last
couple of years at around 40-45%. The ratio of non-Eurozone turnover to
Eurozone turnover has decreased for the second year in a row. Although the
DSTA cannot measure the exact effects of Brexit on this data, it suspects that
this is the main reason that this trend is visible as some financial institutions
decided to relocate from the UK to within the euro area.

Primary dealers and secondary markets | Outlook 2021 | 30

Figure 9 - Geographical breakdown of secondary market turnover (€ bn)
300
250

due to the rise in total outstanding debt. With the Corona virus still present
throughout the last months of 2020, the DSTA expects that this relative level
of holdings will not go down in the coming year but rather increase.
During 2020 a rise in the holdings of foreign investors is clearly visible. The
level, nearing 50% of total debt outstanding at the end of the second quarter,
is above the average level of 2018 and 2019. This increase is a clear signal that
foreign investors have taken up most of the additional borrowing
requirement, a little over 60% of the rise in total debt. The DSTA remains
committed to a diverse investor base and therefore remains in close contact
with its Primary Dealers and investors to best fit the funding calendars.

200
150
100
50

Figure 10 –Holdings by domestic (lhs, € bn) and foreign investors (rhs) of
Dutch government securities

0

200
Africa

Asia

Europe - Europe Eurozone
NonEurozone

Source: DSTA Secondary
Market Trade Reports,
Q1-Q3 2020
2018 (Q1-Q3)
2019 (Q1-Q3)

North
America

Oceania

South
America

2020 (Q1-Q3)

Holdings of Dutch government securities by investor type
The Dutch Central Bank (DNB) publishes quarterly data on Dutch
government securities holdings. The data contains information on total
investor holdings and holdings per residual maturity.
Figure 10 shows holdings of Dutch government securities split between
domestic investors (stacked bars) and foreign investors (brown line).
Domestic investors are further divided into various categories. Eligible
securities include DSLs, DTCs and ECP. No changes have been made to the
pace of the PSPP since September 2019. However, in March 2020 the PEPP
was initiated and more net asset purchases became available to the ECB.
Even though the ECB, in nominal terms, held more Dutch treasury bonds in
the second quarter of 2020, the relative amount remained stable around 25%

49%
48%

180

47%

160

46%

140

45%

120

44%

100

43%

80

42%

60

41%

40

40%

20
0

39%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2017
Banks

2018

2019

Pension and investment funds

Dutch Central Bank

Other

2020
Insurers

Foreign investors (rhs)

Source: DNB, Dutch government securities holdings data, November 2020.

Primary dealers and secondary markets | Outlook 2021 | 31

Breaking down holdings of Dutch government securities by residual
maturity shows that longer-dated bonds are especially popular among
Dutch buy-and-hold investors, like pension funds, investment funds and
insurers. These parties are generally interested in longer-dated assets to
match the relatively long duration of their liabilities. In the second quarter
of 2020, pension and investment funds held approximately 28% of DSLs
with a residual maturity longer than 10 years, while insurers accounted for
10% in this bucket. In contrast, Dutch securities holdings at domestic banks
are more concentrated in shorter-dated DSLs, especially the 2- to 5-year
segment.

In addition to that, the DSTA will always be looking into exploring other
types of issuances to be used in the near future. The importance of the role
of public issuers in the above mentioned markets does not need to be
underestimated and the DSTA feels obliged to at least explore its role in this
process.
Figure 11 – Sustainable debt: global state of the market H1 2020
400
350

The DSTA has been a part of the sustainable bond space since the launch of
the inaugural Green bond back in May of 2019. It has since then reopened
the Green bond multiple times with the last reopening in June 2020 and has
published its first green bond report in May 2020. For the future the DSTA
would like to remain active within the Green bond space and will therefore
look into possibilities to further expand its Green bond issuances.

Bn >

300

Developments in the green, sustainability and social bond market
The year 2020 will see yet another increase in sustainable issuance volumes
worldwide. During the first half of the year sustainable bonds issuance rose
to slightly below $ 200 bn compared to $ 341 bn for the full year of 2019
(see Figure 11). Large issuers, including the European Commission under the
EU SURE program, will most likely push total issuance in 2020 much higher
than total issuance in 2019 making 2020 set to be another record breaking
year for global sustainable bond issuances.

250
200
150
100
50
0

2014

2015
Green

2016

2017
Sustainability

Source: Climate Bonds Initiative 22 October 2020

2018

2019
Social

2020 H1

Statistical appendix | Outlook 2021 | 32

Statistical appendix

Statistical appendix | Outlook 2021 | 33

The information presented below reflects the situation at the end of
November 2020. Please see our website for the latest statistics.

2 Interest rate swaps

Position as of 30-11-2020, in millions of euros

1 Changes in long-term debt in 2020

Bucket
(year of maturity)

In thousands of euros

Positions as at 31-12-2019

289.518.521

New issues in 2020
Public bonds
Private placements

41,212,186
0

Redemptions in 2020
Regular redemptions
Public bonds
Private placements

29,444,799
60,611

Early redemptions
Public bonds
Private placements
Positions as at 30-11-2019

357,687
0

5

Pay or receive5

amount

(net)

2020

2,459

Pay

2021

33,304

Pay

2022

8,621

Pay

2023

14,666

Receive

2024

9,964

Receive

2026

63

Receive

2027

1,100

Receive

2028

1,830

Receive

2033

1,888

Receive

2035

1,548

Receive

2036

400

Receive

2037

1,260

Receive

2042

1,180

Receive

2055

33

Receive

10,452

Pay

Net total

300.867.610

Nominal position as at 30-11-2019

Receiver swaps are swap contracts in which the Dutch State receives a fixed interest rate
and pays a floating interest rate. Payer swaps are swap contracts in which the Dutch
State pays a fixed interest rate and receives a floating interest rate.

Statistical appendix | Outlook 2021 | 34

3 Key figures on individual bonds in 2020
In thousands of euros

Total

Issues

Redemptions

31-12-2019

Total

ISIN code

30-11-2020

0.25 pct DSL 2014 due 15 January 2020

15,052,184

15,052,184

0

NL0010881827

3.50 pct DSL 2010 due 15 July 2020

14,749,615

14,749,615

0

NL0009348242

3.25 pct DSL 2011 due 15 July 2021

16,493,985

16,493,985

NL0009712470

0.00 pct DSL 2016 due 15 January 2022

15,380,112

15,380,112

NL0011896857

2.25 pct DSL 2012 due 15 July 2022

15,252,147

15,252,147

NL0010060257

3.75 pct DSL 2006 due 15 January 2023

4,263,000

4,263,000

NL0000102275

7.50 pct DSL 1993 due 15 January 2023

8,241,489

8,241,489

NL0000102077

Principal 15 January 2023

1,565,000

1,565,000

NL0000103000

1.75 pct DSL 2013 due 15 July 2023

17,607,963

17,607,963

NL0010418810

0.00 pct DSL 2017 due 15 January 2024

15,378,277

15,378,277

NL0012650469

2.00 pct DSL 2014 due 15 July 2024

15,315,132

15,315,132

NL0010733424

0.25 pct DSL 2015 due 15 July 2025

15,220,159

15,220,159

NL0011220108

0.50 pct DSL 2016 due 15 July 2026

15,113,051

1,501,000

16,614,051

NL0011819040

0

13,084,000

13,084,000

NL0015031501

15,380,926

NL0012171458

13,028,814

NL0000102317

14,626,941

NL0012818504

12,215,587

NL0013332430

14,038,462

NL0014555419

0.00 pct DSL 2020 due 15 January 2027
0.75 pct DSL 2017 due 15 July 2027

15,380,926

5.50 pct DSL 1998 due 15 January 2028

13,028,814

0.75 pct DSL 2018 due 15 July 2028

12,376,941

0.25 pct DSL 2019 due 15 July 2029

12,215,587

0.00 pct DSL 2020 due 15 July 2030

0

2,250,000
14,038,462

2.50 pct DSL 2012 due 15 January 2033

13,555,900

13,555,900

NL0010071189

4.00 pct DSL 2005 due 15 January 2037

15,723,427

15,723,427

NL0000102234

0.50 pct DSL 2019 due 15 January 2040

5,985,004

8,993,004

NL0013552060

3.75 pct DSL 2010 due 15 January 2042

16,063,910

16,063,910

NL0009446418

2.75 pct DSL 2014 due 15 January 2047

15,170,187

1,370,000

16,540,187

NL0010721999

0.00 pct DSL 2020 due 15 January 2052

0

5,960,724

5,960,724

NL0015614579

3,008,000

2 1/2 pct Grootboek

9,330

682

8,649

NL0000006286

3 pct Grootboek

2,692

5

2,687

NL0000004802

Statistical appendix | Outlook 2021 | 35

Total
3 1/2 pct Grootboek

Issues

Redemptions

31-12-2019
100
289,144,932

41,212,186

29,802,486

Total

ISIN code

30-11-2020
100

NL0000002707

300,554,632

Statistical appendix | Outlook 2021 | 36

4 Short-term debt and Eonia swaps in 2020
In millions of euros

Key figures of T-bills

Total

Issues

Expirations

31-12-2019

Total

ISIN code

30-11-2020

DTC 2020-01-31

4,880

4,880

NL0013688955

DTC 2020-02-28

4,000

4,000

NL0013908767

DTC 2020-03-31

2,190

1,200

3,390

NL0013995335

DTC 2020-04-30

2,850

1,210

4,060

NL0014040347

DTC 2020-05-29

2,470

1,030

3,500

NL0014120164

DTC 2020-06-29

4,390

4,390

NL0014157844

DTC 2020-07-30

6,050

6,050

NL0014270324

DTC 2020-08-28

7,120

7,120

NL0014433203

DTC 2020-09-29

7,060

7,060

NL0014787046

DTC 2020-10-29

7,010

7,010

NL0014913295

DTC 2020-11-27

6,230

6,230

DTC 2021-01-28

10,070

10,070

NL0014832073

DTC 2021-02-25

7,560

7,560

NL0014926388

DTC 2021-03-30

6,080

6,080

NL0015063736

DTC 2021-04-29

7,860

7,860

NL0014858250

DTC 2021-05-28

6,420

6,420

NL0015031527

DTC 2021-06-29

5,840

5,840

NL0015285826

DTC 2021-07-29

4,280

4,280

NL0015476839

DTC 2021-08-30

3,810

3,810

NL0015524117

16,390

93,220

57,690

NL0015041583

51,920

Statistical appendix | Outlook 2021 | 37

Commercial Paper

Total

Issues

Expirations

31-12-2019

Total
30-11-2020

CP EUR

0

24,257

24,257

0

CP USD

672

36,899

37,434

138

CP GBP

0

739

739

0

CP CHF

0

0

0

0

CP NOK

0

851

851

0

672

62,746

63,280

138

Total

Issues

Expirations

Other short-term debt

31-12-2019

Total
30-11-2020

Deposit borrow

150

113,295

111,945

1,500

Deposit lend

-375

-136,901

-136,386

-890

Deposit borrow USD

805

3,498

4,303

0

Eurex repo

-155

-167,855

-167,960

-50

Buy Sell Back

0

-10

-10

0

Sell Buy Back

0

12,116

12,116

0

Eonia swaps (position as of 30 November 2020)
Bucket (year of maturity)

Net nominal amount

Pay or receive (net)

2020

140

Receive

2021

51,920

Receive

Outlook 2021 | 38

Photo captions

10

4

8

In 2020 windmills on the North Sea provided the
Netherlands with clean energy for 2 million.
(p. 14 & 19)

The national growth fund will invest in knowledge
development. This photo shows students printing an
object in a 3D-printer. (p. 25)

The first revolving door was invented in the Netherlands in 1888
by the company Boon Edam, which is still the global market leader
in revolving doors, tourniquets and entrance gates. The photo
shows a revolving door at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol. (p. 21)

1
The National Growth Fund will invest in
research, development and innovation. This
photo shows the University library in Delft.
(p. 32)

2

5

9

The Stella Era is a solar powered
racing car built by students from TU
Eindhoven. It won the cruiser class
World Solar Challenge 2019. (p. 37)

The Netherlands has more than 17.000 km of water retaining dykes. Knowledge about state-of-the
art dykebuilding is exported to other countries. The photo shows a dyke in the village Andijk. (p. 29)

The National Growth Fund will invest in
infrastructure. This photo pictures an
overpass over a highway. (p. 5)

3
The first mobile car navigation device was
developed in het Netherlands by the
company TomTom. (p. 35)

6

7

In 1595 the world’s first microscope
was invented by Sacharias and
Hans Jansen in the Netherlands. It
magnified up to nine times. In the
17th century, Antonie van
Leeuwen­hoek developed a
microscope that magnified up to
275 times. (p. 27)

The Belgian-Dutch biotech
corporation Galapagos is specialized
in the discovery and development of
innovative medicines. In 2020 their
first medicine, for the treatment of
adults with rheumatoid arthritis, was
approved to be sold on the European
and Japanese market. (p. 10)

11
Companies in the Netherlands are highly experienced
in building dredgers due to the fact that 55% of the
country is under sea level. Because of rising sea levels
the global dredging sector is growing. (p. 16)

12
The Maeslantkering is the largest
moving flood defence in the world. The
flood defence system closes to protect
the land when the sea rises due to a
storm. (p. 7)

Outlook 2021 | 39

13
The IEEE 802.11 network-protocol was
invented in the Netherlands in 1991, this
protocol is the basis of wireless
communication between computers and
therewith a core component of wifi. (p. 8)

14
TU Delft and the KLM designed a new energy-efficient airplane where the passengers are
placed in the wings: the Flying-V. In the summer of 2020 the scaled flight model completed
a successful maiden flight. The photo was taken during the presentation of the design
in 2020. (p. 12)

16

18

ASML is one of the world's leading
manufacturers of chip-making
equipment. The photo portrays two
employees working on a chip-­
making-­machine in Velthoven. (p. 23)

A demonstration of the capabilities of the
Interceptor, a plastic-gathering device built by the
Dutch company The Ocean Cleanup. The aim of
the company is to catch floating plastic garbage
from rivers before it reaches the sea. (p. 41)

15
On the High Tech Campus in Eindhoven more
than 12,000 researchers, developers and
entrepreneurs are working at over 220
companies and institutes, among which
Philips, NXP and ASML. The photo shows a
lunch-delivery robot on the campus. (p. 3)

17
A researcher in AlgaePARC in Wageningen. Microalgae have great potential as a
photosynthetic catalyst to (re)capture inorganic carbon and convert it into the organic
molecules that are the feedstock of all carbon based food and fuel available today. (p. 1)

Outlook 2021 | 40

Highlights of the DSTA Outlook 2021

Contacts
Agent
Elvira Eurlings
e.l.m.eurlings@minfin.nl

• Estimated funding need of € 95.6 bn in 2021.
• Estimated capital market funding in 2020: € 50 bn [in nominal terms]:
− Launch of a new 8-year bond, the DSL 15 January 2029, via MTS platform.
For 2021, the DSTA foresees an indicative amount of € 10 bn in this bond;
− Launch of a new 10-year benchmark DSL (15 July 2031) in February or March,
via DDA; issuance volume of at least € 12 bn in 2021, with the option to raise
it further depending on market appetite or funding need;
− Launch of a new 15-year DSL, via DDA; minimum issuance volume of
approximately € 6 bn in 2021;
− At least one more tap auction in the DSL 15 January 2027 in 2021; target
volume of € 1.5 – € 2.5 bn;
− One tap auction in 2021 of the Green DSL 15 January 2040; target volume
of € 1.5 - € 2.5 bn;
− A minimum of two tap auctions in 2021 of the DSL 15 January 2052, for a
total indicative amount of € 3 bn;
− DSL issuances of € 15 bn ‘to be determined’.

Deputy agent
Martin Heerma
m.heerma@minfin.nl

Secretariat
+31 (0)70 342 80 06
dsta.secretariaat@minfin.nl

Controlling, Accounting
& Reporting
Bernd Klein Schiphorst
b.e.j.kleinschiphorst@minfin.nl

• DSL auction windows on the second and fourth Tuesday of the month.
• Fluctuations in funding need will be primarily absorbed via the money
market. Only if the funding need turns out significantly lower, the call on the
capital market could be reduced. A higher funding need will increase capital
market calls, and perhaps also money market calls.
• Regular DTC auctions on every first and third Monday of the month.
• Regular updates of borrowing requirements, funding plan and Dutch
economy and budget through Quarterly Outlooks and press releases.

Cash Management,
Issuance and Trading
Martin Heerma
m.heerma@minfin.nl

Policy & Risk
Management
Karen van der Wiel
k.m.wiel@minfin.nl

Treasury &
Debt Operations
Robert Hester
r.a.hester@minfin.nl

Dutch State Treasury Agency
Ministry of Finance
po Box 20201
2500 ee The Hague
The Netherlands
www.dsta.nl

The cut-off date for data in the Outlook 2021 is
30 November 2020, unless otherwise specified.
Colophon
Design Xerox | OSAGE
Photography Nationale Beeldbank , ANP
11 December 2020