Patent application EP19173599A (EP), filed 2019-05-09
Publication number: EP3570171A1
Title: SYSTEMS AND METHOD FOR INCIDENT FORECASTING
Abstract: A system includes a memory and a processor configured to analyze a data set to determine a first number of incidents during a first period of time and a second number of incidents during a second period of time, train a plurality of models predict a number of incidents during the second period of time, wherein the plurality of respective models comprise a random forest model, a drift model, and a naive seasonal drift model, identifying the model that best predicted the number of incidents during the second period of time, and utilizing the identified model to predict a third number of incidents within a set allowable range of values during a third period of time, and upper and lower limits of the third number of incidents during the third period of time based on a set confidence level and displaying the third number of incidents during the third period of time.
IPC codes: G06F  11/    30            A I
G06F  11/    34            A I
G06F  17/    18            A I
G06N  20/    00            A I
G06N  20/    20            A I
G06Q  10/    04            A I
G06Q  30/    02            A I
H04L  12/    24            A I
H04L  12/    26            A I
Claims: number: 1
text: A system, comprising:
number: 2
text: The system of claim 1, wherein identifying the selected model of the plurality of models comprises calculating a root mean squared error (RMSE) between the predicted second number of incidents generated by each of the plurality of models and the actual number of incidents during the second period of time.
number: 3
text: The system of claim 1, wherein the plurality of respective models is selectable via the graphical user interface.
number: 4
text: The system of claim 1, wherein identifying the selected model of the plurality of models comprises considering weights assigned to one or more of the plurality of models.
number: 5
text: The system of claim 1, wherein a first length of the first period of time, a second length of the second period of time, a third length of the third period or time, or a combination there of are configurable via the graphical user interface.
number: 6
text: The system of claim 1, wherein the allowable range of values is configurable via the graphical user interface.
number: 7
text: The system of claim 1, wherein the confidence level is configurable via the graphical user interface.
number: 8
text: The system of claim 1, wherein the operations comprise caching the predicted third number of incidents during the third period of time in a database table as a comma separated value field.
number: 9
text: A method of forecasting event data, comprising:
number: 10
text: The method of forecasting event data of claim 9, comprising caching the predicted third number of incidents during the third period of time in a database table as a comma separated value field.
number: 11
text: The method of forecasting event data of claim 9, wherein identifying the selected model of the plurality of models comprises calculating a root mean squared error (RMSE) between the predicted second number of incidents generated by each of the plurality of models and the actual number of incidents during the second period of time.
number: 12
text: The method of forecasting event data of claim 9, wherein a first length of the first period of time, a second length of the second period of time, a third length of the third period or time, or a combination there of are configurable via the graphical user interface.
number: 13
text: The method of forecasting event data of claim 9, wherein the allowable range of values and the confidence level are configurable via the graphical user interface.
Office action: search_report, dated 2019-11-20
Prior art cited: ref_id: EP3131234A1
ref_type: patent
severity: background
ref_id: WO2015179778A1
ref_type: patent
severity: background
ref_id: WO2015179778
ref_type: patent
severity: background
ref_id: EP3131234
ref_type: patent
severity: background
Final disposition: pending (2019-11-20)