Debate: Outcome of the COP in Glasgow
Date: WEDNESDAY, 24 NOVEMBER 2021
Speaker: Frans Timmermans
Language: EN

The Glasgow COP embraced the highest level of ambition of the Paris Agreement as our common target. We now have a global consensus on the need to limit climate change to 1.5 degrees. Ten days after COP26, this almost seems like a given now, but ten days before we began, the mantra was still below 2 degrees, and some countries even challenged the fact that Paris ever spoke of 1.5. In addition, countries that do not have nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in line with this 1.5-degree target will have to come back next year to deliver the required update. For the first time, the parties at COP26 agreed to phase down coal and fossil fuel subsidies. Whatever you may think about the precise language that was necessary to get the whole package over the finish line, this is a big win. Of course, if you compare ‘phase down’ with the initial formulation ‘phase out’, you’re disappointed but, as Greenpeace said in Glasgow, changing a word doesn’t change the signal. The era of coal is ending. Before Glasgow, the Commission set three objectives: first, to push for emission cuts that bring us within Paris territory with NDCs that keep global warming well below 2 degrees, while aiming for 1.5; second, to close the gap on the USD 100 billion climate finance goal, while ramping up support for adaptation; and, third, to complete the Paris Rulebook so that we can keep track of progress and hold countries to account. The Paris Rulebook seems like an esoteric subject sometimes, but it is essential to have carbon markets actually function in a way we want them to function. On all these three issues, we saw clear progress. Two years ago, at the COP in Madrid, the EU laid down our ambition for climate neutrality by 2050. At that stage, there was little to no movement from other major emitters in the G20, China, the US, but also Japan, South Korea, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia and others. Since then, each of these countries has announced targets of their own, varying from climate neutrality in 2050 to net zero carbon emissions in 2060, and, in a single case, India, 2070. 90% of the global economy is now on a net—zero trajectory. That was only 30% a year ago. We went into the COP on track for 2.7 degrees warming – way too much, but a lot less than the 3 or 4 degrees we were headed for in Paris, and after COP, for the very first time, we have a shot at staying below 2 degrees. We will see in the coming weeks what the actual number is, but we still have a shot at staying below 2 degrees. I will not take into my narrative the 1.8 mentioned by the International Energy Agency. Let’s see, in the coming weeks when we do the calculation, where we are but we have a chance of staying below two degrees. Moreover, COP26 agreed to accelerate our actions still this decade and revisit the NDCs next year with a focus on the 1.5 degrees. This new marker on the calendar is due to a push from the EU to keep the pressure on because the World Leaders Summit made clear that, with the right pressure, ambition levels will in fact go up. Over one third of all global financing comes from the EU and its Member States. We are doing our share and more, and we continue asking others to do the same. Heading into the COP, there was still a gap of about USD 20 billion on the developed world’s commitment towards the developing world. This is why, in this House, the President of the Commission committed an additional EUR 4 billion to climate finance. It pressured others to do the same or to follow suit. Shortly after our commitments, the United States announced their own USD 11.4 billion commitment. During Glasgow, other donors added to this to bring us closer to this goal, and we may reach it next year instead of 2023. We also started to look beyond 2025 at long—term needs. Adaptation finance will at least double and we will start a dialogue to discuss finance for loss and damage. Glasgow also strengthened the global network of agencies that provide immediate relief and assistance to countries who already suffer from the consequences of the climate crisis. And here, I must say that the EU and our Member States played a leading role. Four Member States committed a total of USD 25 million dollars to the Santiago Network for its functioning, and I think this is an important signal. The issue of loss and damage will grow in importance at future COPs, and we should engage in all sincerity with those who already today suffer from climate—induced catastrophes. If we really want to succeed at the next COP in Sharm el-Sheikh, we now have to work closely, especially with our sister continent of Africa, in preparing this – on adaptation and on finance, on carbon sinks, on how to best have nature—based solutions, and on how to help them in their energy transition. All these things are crucial, starting now, if we want Sharm el-Sheikh to be a success. I already mentioned the completion of the Paris Rulebook. It seems like a technical matter, but it is of essential importance for the carbon markets to start to work because the essence of the global approach to decarbonisation is putting a price on carbon, and you have to be able to compare the way we do that for carbon markets to work well. That is now possible because we can close the Rulebook because it is agreed. So what does this mean for the EU? Glasgow confirmed that the EU is a global leader and a necessary bridge builder. Our climate diplomacy, supported by credible policies and commitments, our carefully nurtured climate dialogues with countries like Japan, China and Turkey, and our outreach to others like India, Brazil and Indonesia, have helped to push all major emitters to step up their ambition. Each of these countries will roll out and accelerate its own green transition. European companies, who are already frontrunners in renewables and hydrogen in the circular economy, stand to benefit. Think, for example, of India, which committed to reach 500 GW in renewable energy by 2030. That is a massive, massive opportunity, also an economic opportunity, for European industry. Climate action knows no quick fixes. It will never be solved in a single conference. But the climate crisis is accelerating and so should we. Fighting this crisis requires constant effort and unrelenting pressure on all governments, especially the major emitters, and it requires everybody’s participation. That is why it is also good that this COP strengthened the involvement of indigenous peoples, the youth and local governments. Now we must set our sights on Sharm el-Sheikh, as I said. Getting Fit for 55 adopted ahead of next year’s COP will mean that, yet again, the European Union is putting pressure on others to step up their game, and all are following the fact that we are the only ones who have a real plan to get us to our emission reductions – legally binding emission reductions – by 2030 and 2050. In Europe, we must keep up the legislative work. You are so, so much in charge now, with the Council, to make it happen. We’ve come a long way, my friends, but we still have a very, very, very long way to go if we want to get where we need to be. Our situation – and I have to say this – is dire, but it is not hopeless. What needs to be done is bloody hard, much harder than most are willing to acknowledge today. But it is a path we must walk, and walk with speed and determination, for all our sakes but, first and foremost, for the sake of our children and grandchildren. It must be done. It can be done. It will be done. And please make it personal. Think of people you love. Think of people you want to act for. I think of my kids. I think of my grandson. And I also think of a 15—year—old girl. Her name was Rosa. She died in Rendeux in the flood. She was the daughter of one of my Commission colleagues, Ditte Juul Jørgensen. I think of her today.