Debate: Role of preventive diplomacy in tackling frozen conflicts around the world – missed opportunity or change for the future?
Date: TUESDAY, 16 JANUARY 2024
Speaker: Nicolas Schmit
Language: EN

The nature of conflict is shifting. Our time is increasingly marked by geopolitical rivalry and a resurgence of inter-state conflict. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is only one example of a return of violent tensions and major wars between nation states that we all hoped belonged to the past. With this geopolitical recalibration, we are also seeing a multitude of external actors weighing in on domestic and local conflicts, which increases the complexity of the conflict. The war in Gaza is a case in point, but so are the conflicts in Yemen, Syria, Libya, Sudan and in the Sahel – all stark reminders of the proxy dynamics at play. The accelerated geopolitical agenda forces us to put the focus on tackling the latest crises, but we should not forget the importance of looking ahead and trying to prevent conflict. According to the World Bank, each euro invested in prevention saves an estimated EUR 4 to the international community – up to EUR 65 billion a year. As a global actor for peace, conflict prevention is a key element of the EU’s values and a core foreign policy objective. We therefore will continue working to reinforce our action in all stages of the conflict cycle, particularly in its early steps before eruption, including through preventive diplomacy. At the same time, we need more efficient early warning systems and, more importantly, early action to avoid kinetic action down the road. Therefore, we welcome the recommendations included in your draft report, which are very relevant. Drawing from them, let me highlight some of the ongoing efforts to further develop the EU’s toolbox to better leverage its conflict prevention and peace mediation engagements. Since 2014, the EU conflict Early Warning System, based on statistics and intelligence, identifies countries at risk of conflict. We are currently adapting our data modelling to the new reality of conflicts, making it more dynamic and reflecting subnational trends. Thanks to the European Parliament, the NDICI-Global Europe Regulation included a requirement to develop conflict analysis in fragile and conflict-affected countries. Since 2020, the EU has developed more than 55 conflict analysis screenings – an unprecedented effort no other international organisation has undertaken. Our conflict analyses shape development cooperation programming and help to better plan and design EU CSDP actions. A good example is the analysis conducted ahead of the EU security and defence initiative in support of West African countries of the Gulf of Guinea, which includes a civilian pillar with a strong preventive focus. Most recently, we have reshaped our toolset to make it more efficient and better aligned with EU foreign policy needs. We included new types of conflict analysis with regional automatic focus, such as electoral violence, gender, hybrid threats or economics of conflict. Better shaped scenario analysis also feeds into strategic foresight. Let me also refer briefly to peace mediation – an essential means for preventive diplomacy. We are supporting peace mediation and dialogue in about 25 conflicts worldwide, predominantly in Africa and the MENA region, in many different forms. In some contexts, the EU acts as a facilitator. This is the case in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue or the nuclear discussion with Iran. As you know, High Representative/Vice-President Borrell personally engages in all of this. Even though these processes are not linear and successes are not always easy to measure, mediation is without doubt a cost-effective tool. In other cases, the EU supports international, regional or local mediation and dialogue actors, be it international organisations or independent mediation organisations. Precisely because we know peace efforts need the involvement of the whole international community, the EU has developed conflict prevention and mediation partnerships. Of course, we work very closely with the UN – for instance in Yemen, Libya or Syria – but we increasingly coordinate also with the OSCE, with the African Union or ECOWAS. All this is very accurately reflected in your report, and we are glad to see that we can continue counting on the European Parliament to consolidate the EU toolset and our efforts on preventive diplomacy – from conflict analysis to conflict prevention, peace mediation and dialogue.