Statistics, especially official statistics, do not usually create headline-grabbing news. To some extent, this is because of the very nature of statistical measurement, which is usually based on cautious comparison and integration of many data sets over time. Good statistics rarely lend themselves to the superficial sound bite.
This week's release of the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data provides a good example. GDP is estimated through comparison and integration of numerous data collections, including most of Statistics SA's economic and financial series.
It also involves regular revision of previous data, as newer and better figures becomes available. This is the reason that the real annualised growth rate for the first quarter of this year has been revised upwards from 4 percent to 5 percent, and second quarter growth from 4.9 percent to 5.5 percent.
At the same time, Stats SA reported that the seasonally adjusted real GDP at market prices for the third quarter increased by an annualised rate of 4.7 percent compared with the second quarter.
Considerable detail and complexity is contained in this single number. There is the relative contribution of economic sectors. Which are growing and which are shrinking?
The latest data tell us that the finance, real estate and business services industry was the largest contributor to growth in the third quarter, accounting for 1.2 percent. This was followed by wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants (0.9 percent), manufacturing (0.8 percent) and transport and communication (0.5 percent).
At the other end of the scale, the contribution of agriculture, forestry and fishing declined, accounting for a drop of 1.3 percent, while that of electricity, gas and water was unchanged. This sort of detail can only be compiled because of the regular and consistent collection of official statistics.
This week, along with GDP, Stats SA releases the consumer and production price indices for last month; statistics on liquidations, electricity generated and tourist accommodation; the non-financial census of municipalities; and the financial statistics of consolidated general government. Most of these will form part of the basis for estimating the next quarter's GDP or have an influence on the revision of growth figures for previous periods.
The financial statistics of consolidated general government for 2004/05, released yesterday, provide information on the sources and uses of government cash, classified economically and functionally.
These data present revenue and expenditure patterns and enable the national treasury and the Reserve Bank to revise their estimates, in turn allowing GDP estimates to be revised where appropriate. The information is derived mainly from audited financial statements, which can only be published some time after the conclusion of a financial year. It could therefore not have been made available earlier.
This is a good example of the release of newer and better data leading to revision of previous GDP estimates.
This careful and consistent estimation, measurement and revision differs markedly from the sometimes cavalier or superficial use of statistics that often grabs the headlines.
Consider last week's headline in a business publication, proclaiming: "Slowdown plays havoc with SA's jobs drive". The article, written before release of the latest GDP data, cited a report claiming that employment creation was slowing as a consequence of lower growth.
Yet revised GDP data show that growth was higher in the first and second quarters than originally reported, that growth in the third quarter was higher than initial estimates for the first quarter, and that growth in most sectors was strong.
This same report claimed that between 10 000 and 12 000 jobs were being created each month, compared with 30 000 a month last year. The basis of this estimate is not clear, especially given that the latest establishment-based employment data are only due for publication on December 12.
This may have been the type of situation contemplated by the UN Statistics Commission when it adopted clause 4 of the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics, endorsing the right of statistical agencies to comment on erroneous interpretation and misuse of statistics. Dramatic claims of a slowdown, contradicted by the data, and speculation on job creation before the latest data are released may be the stuff of headlines. They are certainly not the mandate of official statistics.