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Shubham Dhas( Goalkeeper ) ‘n Klein, oop ekonomie | Die Ekonomie Blog
As ons nie dollars van beleggers kry nie, wat van toeriste? Daar is verlede jaar baie geskryf oor die impak wat nuwe visumvereistes kan hê op buitelandse toeriste. Tog was daar ‘n 7% toename in buitelandse besoekers aan die land oor die Desember vakansie. Die swakker Rand maak dat Suid-Afrika besondere waarde vir geld bied as ‘n bestemming. Business Day het meer hieroor. Vir 2015 in geheel het ons egter ‘n 6.9% afname in besoekers beleef. Die UK Telegraph gee ‘n lekker opsomming van syfers uit die nuutste WTO Tourism Barometer.
Maar as die Rand swak is, maak dit nie ons uitvoer meer mededingend nie? Is dit nie die manier om die valuta te verdien wat ons nodig het nie? Ongelukkig werk dit net vir ‘n kort rukkie.
Vir die volle storie oor hoe die wisselkoers ondernemings en spesifiek uitvoerders beïnvloed, lees gerus hierdie Grensnut inskrywing.
The Economist berig dat reg oor die wêreld laat wisselkoers depresiasie nie meer uitvoere toeneem soos altyd nie: Between 1980 and 2014, according to an analysis of 60 economies by the IMF, a 10% depreciation relative to the currencies of trading partners boosted net exports by 1.5% of GDP over the long term, on average. Most of the improvement came within the first year. But devaluations do not seem to have provided quite the same boost recently. Japan is the best example. The yen has been depreciating rapidly. A Big Mac was 20% cheaper in Japan than in America in 2013; now it is 37% cheaper. Yet export volumes have barely budged (see chart 2). This is a surprise: the IMF calculates that Japanese exports are around 20% lower than it would have expected, given how the yen has weakened. Devaluations in other countries, including South Africa and Turkey, have also disappointed.
Dit alles het belangrike implikasies vir beleidmakers: kon die SA afvaardiging by Davos beleggers se harte wen, gaan die President sê wat hulle wil hoor in sy SONA toespraak, het die Minister van Finansies ‘n begroting reg wat hulle sal oortuig, die Reserwebank se beleidskomittee volgende week die repo-koers verhoog?
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