The value of the rand against other currencies; consumer and producer inflation; the price of oil; the performance of the manufacturing sector; the rate of domestic savings; and decisions of the Reserve Bank's monetary policy committee on changes in the repo rate are economic issues that increasingly dominate news headlines.
Statistics and their interpretation lie at the heart of this heightened awareness of economic dynamics. Economic policy, debate and decision making are influenced by monthly official statistics that cover consumer and producer inflation; retail, wholesale and motor trade sales; manufacturing and mining production and sales; and more specific indicators, such as electricity generation and distribution, liquidations and insolvencies.
This is why so many different stakeholders - bankers, economists, market analysts, policy makers, the government, international agencies and citizens participating in the country's economic life - monitor and comment on these statistics.
Last Wednesday Statistics SA reported that consumer inflation had reached its highest point since August 2003, with the June consumer inflation rate rising to 4.9 percent year on year from 3.9 percent in May. The major driver of this increase was food inflation, which rose to 7.7 percent year on year from an annual 6.9 percent in May. Non-food inflation rose to 4.1 percent year on year from 3 percent in May.
Stats SA reported at the same time that annual CPIX (consumer price inflation less mortgage rates), the Reserve Bank's inflation target measure, rose to 4.8 percent in June, compared with 4.1 percent in May. This was the 33rd consecutive month that CPIX remained below 5 percent year on year, well within the Reserve Bank's target range of between 3 percent and 6 percent.
A day later Stats SA reported that producer inflation was at its highest level since January 2003, with producer inflation in June 2006 rising to 7.5 percent year on year compared with 5.9 percent in May. Agriculture was a major driver of this increase, with local farm gate prices rising 21.3 percent year on year compared with 17.3 percent in May and 15.5 percent in April.
The local component of producer inflation increased to 7.6 percent year on year, its highest level since February 2003. The producer price index (PPI) for imported commodities showed a 6.8 percent annual rate of increase at in June - 2.1 percentage points higher than the corresponding rate of 4.7 percent year on year in May. The price of imported crude oil, an important component of PPI for imported commodities, rose by 41.5 percent year on year from a 30 percent rise in May.
June data on liquidations and insolvencies were also released last Thursday. The total number of liquidations recorded for the first six months of this year decreased by 16.6 percent compared with the first half of 2005.
This was the result of a decrease of 32.2 percent in compulsory liquidations and 13.9 percent in voluntary liquidations.
Data for retail trade sales as at the end of May 2006, released yesterday, confirmed the continued upward trend in this economic indicator. The trend cycle, at constant (2000) prices, shows an upward trend from the beginning of 2001 until the end of 2004. The beginning of 2005 saw a brief levelling of the trend, but it began to rise from mid-2005 and has continued this trajectory.
Retail trade sales at constant prices for the three months to May increased by 10.3 percent compared with the quarter to May last year. Similarly, retail trade sales at constant prices for the period January to May this year increased by 9.7 percent compared with January to May 2005. Retail trade sales for the month of May 2006 increased by 10.6 percent compared with May 2005.
At current prices, retail trade sales for the three months to May 2006 increased by a more pronounced 15.2 percent compared with the three months to May 2005.
The major contributors to this increase were general dealers (contributing 6.2 percentage points); retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods (contributing 2.7 percentage points); retailers in hardware, paint and glass (contributing 2.1 percentage points), all other retailers (contributing 1.9 percentage points); and retailers in household furniture, appliances and equipment (contributing 1.2 percentage points).
Stats SA plays an increasingly pivotal role in the heightened statistical awareness of the population, which, on Tuesday, was reported as having grown to 47.4 million people by mid-year, an increase of 1.06 percent in the past 12 months.
Yesterday, Stats SA published data on wholesale and motor trade sales, and electricity generated and available for distribution. Discussion and comment on these and other key statistical indicators reflects the growing economic and financial literacy of South Africans, as they keenly monitor the macro- and microeconomic developments and debates that influence their lives.
Pali Lehohla is South Africa's statistician-general and head of Stats SA. For more information on Stats SA and its statistical outputs, including the economic series discussed above, visit www.statssa.gov.