The enclosed draft reply to the question for your approval should you agree with the contents thereof.
Whether, shortage in light of worldwide concerns for the wheat harvest, any preparations have been made to prevent any unexpected national food; if not, why not; if so, what are the relevant details NW1532?
Wheat imports for the current 2010/11 marketing season (1 October 2010 to 30 September 2011) are projected to 1,7 million tons, to date 1,1 million tons have been imported. Imports were mainly from Argentina (51%) and the USA (29%). The projected rand value of the imports will amount to R4,9 billion (applying an average inland import parity price of R2 957/ton on Argentinian wheat).
It may be noted that the Russian Government has announced that the export ban on wheat will be lifted on 1 July 2011. The country's total grain harvest may expand by as much as 48% to 90 million tons this year, the Russian Agriculture Ministry estimates. Exports of wheat are estimated at 13 million tons.
According to the intentions of farmers to plant survey undertaken by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries in April 2011, wheat plantings for the 2011 production season are expected to be about 600 000 ha, an increase of slightly more than 7% compared to the last seasons' plantings of 558 100 ha. Applying a 5 year average yield of 2,85 t/ha to the intentions to plant figure, a wheat crop of approximately 1,7 million tons is expected for the coming season, which is 21,4% more than the last seasons' crop of 1,4 million tons. Local consumption of wheat amounts to approximately 3 million tons. Therefore, taking pipeline requirements into consideration, imports of 1,6 million tons of wheat are expected for the coming 2011/12 marketing season.
Ideally, if the profitability of wheat production improved through better producer prices and reduced input costs, local production of wheat would also see an improvement. Additional research into wheat cultivars/yield optimization is also being undertaken to enable farmers to scale up production.