Tropical cyclone effects in Europe
The effects of tropical cyclones in Europe and their extratropical remnants include strong winds, heavy rainfall, and in rare instances, tornadoes or snowfall. There are only two modern cyclones officially regarded as directly impacting mainland Europe while still fully tropical or subtropical: Hurricane Vince in 2005, which struck southwestern Spain as a tropical depression; and Subtropical Storm Alpha in 2020, which made landfall in northern Portugal at peak intensity. Hurricane Debbie in 1961 may have still been tropical when it made landfall in northwestern Ireland, but this is disputed. In 1842, it is believed that  a hurricane struck Europe. Atlantic hurricanes generally do not form east of the 30th meridian west, and those that do typically continue to the west. Storms can move around the Bermuda high and turn to the northeast and affect Europe. There have been several extratropical cyclones that struck Europe and were colloquially called hurricanes, and some of these European windstorms had hurricane-force winds of over . Those storms are not included in this list. Climatology and predictions. Beginning in the 1860s, advanced meteorological observation stations, as well as ship reports, allowed Atlantic hurricanes to be tracked for extended durations, including  to the European mainland in some cases. Most storms that affected Europe have done so from August to October, which is the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. In a survey of such European tropical cyclones from 1961 to 2010, Dr. Kieran Hickey observed that the storms generally formed west of Africa and recurved to the northeast, or formed off the east coast of the United States and proceeded eastward. Due to their positions far to the west of the rest of Europe, Ireland and the United Kingdom experience the most effects, although countries as far east as Estonia  and Russia have experienced tropical cyclone impacts. Tropical-like systems, referred to as "medicanes," are occasionally observed over the Mediterranean. Several of these storms have developed eye-like features and hurricane-force winds; however, their nature is contrary to that of a tropical cyclone. The majority of these storm originate from deep, cold-core lows which they do not fully disassociate from. Additionally, unlike tropical systems, sea surface temperatures above are not required for their development. In a paper published in April 2013, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute predicted that by the year 2100, global warming would greatly increase the  threat of hurricane-force winds to western Europe from former tropical cyclones and hybrid storms, the latter similar to Hurricane Sandy in 2012. One model predicted an increase from 2 to 13 in the number of cyclones with hurricane-force winds in the waters offshore western Europe. The study suggested that conditions favorable for tropical cyclones would expand to the east. A separate study based out of University of Castilla–La Mancha predicted that hurricanes would develop in the Mediterranean Sea in Septembers by the year 2100, which would threaten countries in southern Europe. Tropical cyclone effects in Europe The