Falcao, Mario Paulo Pereira da Silva (2005-04)
Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2005.
Some digitised pages may appear illegible due to the condition of the hard copy.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A case study in miombo woodlands was carried out in Pindanganga and MOFLOR forest concession, Gondola and Dondo Districts respectively, in the centre of Mozambique, to analyse the impact of alternative forest management regimes and sectoral and extra sectoral policies on the well being of stakeholders and conservation of the woodlands. A system dynamics model, MIOMBOSIM, based on game theory and implemented in POWERSIM was developed. The analysis is based on a simulation model of the fluctuation over time of the human population, forest dynamics, harvesting costs of the private sector, household consumption, commercial outputs and prices (timber, charcoal, non timber forest products and domestic animals), using data from field surveys and the literature. It also simulated the effects over time of changes in charcoal production efficiency, sales amount and marketing prices of NTFPs, agricultural output prices, off-miombo greater employment availability and a combination between the changes (simultaneous increase in marketing prices ofNTFPs and agricultural output prices, simultaneous increase in charcoal production efficiency and agricultural output prices, and simultaneous increase in off-miombo greater employment availability and agricultural output prices). The modelling approach chosen allows to evaluate management regimes taking into account the different stakeholder interests, which are often conflicting. This study shows that improvement in the well being of stakeholders and resource conservation can be achieved with sound forest management practices. There is no management regime capable of fully satisfying the goals of the stakeholders. The cooperative management option is potentially beneficial to local communities if properly implemented and can improve the rural livelihoods and the woodland resources condition. It also shows that regulated forest management regimes incorporating social concerns or incorporating social and environmental concerns are potentially more beneficial to the household sector than the open access regime. Results found in the study show that an increase by 10% and 30% on charcoal production efficiency can lead to an increase in the per capita benefits of the household sector by 3.0 to more than 100%, but can not reach the poverty line (one dollar per day per person). An increase by 100% in the sales amount or 100% increase in market selling prices of NTFPs can lead to an increase in the per capita benefits of the household sector. An increase in agricultural output selling prices by 25% without any other incentive leads to agricultural expansion. An increase by 100% in off-miembo employment opportunities in the study areas has an insignificant impact on resource use and conservation for the local communities due to the very low employment opportunities currently in place (0.008% in Pindanganga and 0.005% in MOFLOR area). A combination of these two policies instruments under ceteris paribus condition can improve the well being of the rural communities depending on the management regime option, but can not reach the poverty line (one dollar per day per person). The ranking of the management regime can change depending on the policy instrument applied.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: 'n Gevalle-studie is in Miombo boomveld in Pindanganga en MOFLOR, onderskeidelik in die Gondola en Dondo Distrikte in die sentrale deel van Mosambiek, uitgevoer om die impak van alternatiewe bosbestuursisteme en sektorale en ekstra-sektorale beleide op die welstand van belanghebbendes (stakeholders) en bewaring van die boomveld te ontleed. 'n Sisteem-dinamika model, MIOMBOSIM, gebaseer op spel teorie (game theory) en ge-implementeer in POWERSIM, was ontwikkel. Die analise is gebaseer op 'n simulasie-model van die fluktuasie oor tyd van die plaaslike bevolking, bosdinamika, oestingskostes van die private sektor, huishoudelike verbruik, kommersiële uitsette en pryse (hout, houtskool, nie-hout produkte en huishoudelike diere), deur data van veldopnames en uit die literatuur te gebruik. Die invloede oor tyd in veranderinge in effektiwiteit van houtskoolproduksie, verkoopsvlakke en markpryse van nie-hout produkte, landbou uitsetpryse, beskikbare indiensneming buite die Miombo boomveldgebiede, en 'n kombinasie tussen die veranderinge, is ook gesimuleer. Die gekose modelleringsbenadering het dit moontlik gemaak om die bosbestuursisteme te evalueer met inagneming van die verskillende en dikwels teenstrydige behoeftes van die belanghebbendes. Die studie het getoon dat verbetering In die welstand van die belanghebbendes en hulpbronbewaring bereik kan word met gesonde bosbestuurspraktyke. Geeneen van die bosbestuursisteme kan die doelwitte van die belanghebbendes ten volle bevredig nie. Die kooperatiewe bestuursopsie is potensieel voordelig vir die plaaslike gemeeskappe indien behoorlik ge-implementeer, en kan die landelike lewensbestaan sowel as die toestand van die boomveld as hulpbron verbeter. Gereguleerde bosbestuursisteme wat sosiale belange of sosialeomgewingsbelange insluit, is potensieel meer voordelig vir die huishoudelike sektor as die vrye toegangsisteem (open access regime). Resultate van die studie het getoon dat 'n toename van onderskeidelik 10% and 30% in effektiwiteit van houtskoolproduksie kan lei tot 'n toename in per kapita voordele van die huishoudelike sektor van 3.0% tot meer as 100%, maar kan nie lei tot 'n vebetering bokant die armoedevlak nie (een VSA doller per dag per persoon). 'n Toename van 100% in die hoeveelheid verkope of 'n 100% toename in die markverkoopsprys van nie-hout produkte kan lei tot 'n toename in die per kapita voordele van die huishoudelike sektor. 'n Toename in die landbou uitsetverkoopspryse met 25% sonder enige ander insentiewe lei tot landbou-uitbreiding. 'n 100% Toename in indiensnemingsgeleenthede buite die Miombo boomveldgebiede in die studiegebiede het onbeduidende impakte op hulpbrongebruik en bewaring vir die plaaslike gemeenskappe as gevolg van baie lae huidige indiensnemingsgeleenthede (0.008% in Pindanganga en 0.005% in MOFLOR). 'n Kombinasie van die twee beleidsinstrumente onder toestande van ceteris paribus kan die welstand van die landelike gemeenskappe verbeter afhangende van die bestuursisteemopsie, maar kan nie die armoedsvlak oorskry nie (een VSA doller per dag per persoon). Die rangorde van die bestuursisteem kan verander afhangende van watter beleidsinstrument toegepas word.
Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/50420
Doctoral Degrees (Forest and Wood Science)