Electricity sector in Turkey
Turkey uses more electricity per person than the global average but less than the European average, with demand peaking in summer due to air conditioning. Most electricity is generated from coal, gas and hydropower. The hydroelectricity from the east is transmitted to big cities in the west. Electricity prices are state-controlled, but wholesale prices are heavily influenced by the cost of imported gas. Each year, about 300 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity is used, which is almost a quarter of the total energy. On average about four hundred grams of carbon dioxide is emitted per  kilowatt-hour of electricity generated (400 gCO/kWh); this carbon intensity is slightly less than the global average. As there is 100 GW of generating capacity, far more electricity could be produced. Although only a tiny proportion is exported; consumption is forecast to increase, and there are plans for more exports during the 2020s. Turkey's coal-fired power stations are the largest source of the country's greenhouse-gas emissions. Many of those burning brown coal are subsidized, which also increases air pollution. Imports of gas, mostly for Turkey's power stations, are one of the main costs for  the economy. In winter electricity generation is vulnerable to reductions in the gas supply from other countries. Solar and wind power are now the cheapest generating technologies, and more of both are being built. If enough solar and wind power is built the country's existing hydroelectricity should be enough to cover windless cloudy weeks. Renewables generate a third of the country's electricity, and academics have suggested that the target of 32% from renewables by 2030 should be increased to at least 50%, and that coal power should be phased out by the mid-2030s. Production and use of electric  vehicles, including the national car, is expected to increase electricity demand during the 2020s. Consumption. Each year, about 300 TWh of electricity is used in Turkey: this supplies almost a quarter of the total final energy demand, the rest being almost all coal, oil and gas. Due to air conditioning demand peaks in summer: with August highest (32 TWh in 2021) and February typically lowest (24 TWh in 2021). Total national consumption divided by the population is under 4,000 kWh a year, much below the average of around 10,000 kWh a year for other OECD countries in Europe, but half  as much again as the global average. In 2019 industry consumed 45%, services 29%, households 21%, and transport and agriculture tiny amounts. Consumption is forecast to increase. , household electricity consumption is estimated to average 230 kWh a month and is dominated by refrigerators, followed by televisions then washing machines. Space heating and electric vehicles have the biggest potential for demand side response. In the five years from 2019, Turkey plans to invest US$11 billion in energy efficiency; and by 2035 to replace 80% of electricity meters with smart meters. Electricity's share of energy consumption is expected to increase , from 22% in 2019 to perhaps 28% in 2040, partly due to electrification of road transport. Demand forecasts. Demand forecasting is important, because constructing too much electricity generation capacity can be expensive, both for government energy subsidies and private sector debt interest. Conversely, constructing too little risks delaying the health benefits of electrification, the biggest of which is cleaner air due to fossil fuel phase-out. Distribution companies, some retail companies, and industrial zones send their demand forecasts to the Energy Ministry and the Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation (TEIAŞ) every year. TEİAŞ then publishes low, base and high 10 year  forecasts, which they have modelled using "DECADES"; whereas the Energy Ministry uses the "Model for Analysis of Energy Demand". Some official demand forecasts have been overestimates, perhaps due to economic growth being lower than predicted. In 2019 actual generation was 76% of firm capacity. This overcapacity continued into the early 2020s. Industry. The share of electricity in industrial energy use is expected to increase at the expense of the fossil fuel share as Turkey moves to higher tech manufacturing. Less coal is being burnt for industry and oil burning remains static. One projection even shows electricity overtaking gas to become  the largest industrial energy source at 30%. However more efficient lighting and industrial motors, together with policy changes supporting efficiency, could limit demand growth. Electrification of transport. In 2021 less than 3000 fully electric cars were sold. However production and use of some types of electric vehicles, such as cars manufactured by Togg, may increase demand during the 2020s. So Shura Energy Transition Center, a think tank, has made many recommendations about electric vehicles, such as automatically charging them at times when there is plenty of wind and solar power. The architecture of Turkey is such that many city dwellers  live in apartment blocks without off-street parking: so regulations require at least one charger per 50 new parking spaces in shopping malls and public parking lots. Getting old diesel lorries off the road would have health and environmental benefits, but this would require new pollution control legislation, and the only commercial electric vehicles planned for mass production are vans. The government aims to end sales of fossil fuel cars and lorries by 2040. Ford and local partners hope to build a factory to make batteries for commercial electric vehicles. Generation. Of the total 329 TWh of electricity generated in  2021; natural gas's share was 42%, coal 26%, hydropower 13%, and wind 10%. Installed capacity reached 100 GW in 2022. Academics have suggested that the target of 32% from renewables by 2030 should be increased to at least 50%. The state-owned Electricity Generation Company (EÜAŞ) has about 20% of the market, and there are many private companies. The carbon intensity of generation during the 2010s was slightly over 400 gCO/kWh, around the global average. Gas. In 2020, power plants consumed 29% of natural gas in Turkey. State-owned gas-fired power plants are less efficient than private  sector ones, but can out compete them because the state guarantees a price for their electricity. Gas power plants are used more when drought reduces hydropower, as in 2021 which was a record year for gas consumption. Hydro. Hydropower is a critical source, and in some years substantial amounts can be generated due to Turkey's mountainous landscape, abundance of rivers, and its position surrounded by three seas. The main river basins are the Euphrates and the Tigris. Many dams have been built throughout the country, and a peak of 28 GW of power can be generated by hydroelectric plants . Almost 90 TWh was generated in 2019, around 30% of the country's electricity. There are many policies that support hydroelectricity. Construction of some dams has been controversial for various reasons: for example environmentalists claiming they damage wildlife such as fish, or downstream countries complaining of reduced water flow. Due to changes in rainfall, generation varies considerably from year to year. And, according to S&P Global Platts, when there is drought in Turkey during the peak electricity demand month of August the aim of the State Hydraulic Works to conserve water for irrigation can conflict with the Turkish Electricity Transmission  Corporation aiming to generate electricity. Despite droughts increasing due to climate change, hydropower is predicted to remain important for load balancing. Converting existing dams to pumped storage has been suggested as more feasible than new pumped storage. Solar. Turkey is located in an advantageous position in the Middle East and Southeast Europe for solar energy, and it is a growing part of renewable energy in the country, with almost 8 GW generating about 4% of the country's electricity. Solar potential is high in Turkey, especially in the south-east and Mediterranean provinces. Conditions for solar power generation are comparable  to Spain. In 2020 Turkey ranked 8th in Europe for solar power, but it could increase far more quickly if subsidies for coal were abolished and the auction system was improved. Every gigawatt of solar power installed would save over US$100 million in gas import costs. Peak daily generation in 2020 was over 1 TWh in September. According to modelling by Carbon Tracker, new solar power became cheaper than new coal power in 2020, and will become cheaper than existing coal plants in 2023. According to think tank Ember, building new solar and wind power in Turkey is cheaper  than running existing coal plants which depend on imported coal. But they say that there are obstacles to building utility-scale solar, such as: lack of new capacity for solar power at transformers, a 50 MW cap on any single solar power plant’s installed capacity, and large consumers being unable to sign long term power purchase agreements for new solar installations. Unlicensed power plants, which are mostly solar, generated about 4% of electricity in 2021. Geothermal. There is almost 2 gigawatts of electrical geothermal power in Turkey, which is a significant part of renewable energy in Turkey. Geothermal power  in Turkey began in the 1970s in a prototype plant following systematic exploration of geothermal fields. In the 1980s the pilot facility became the first power plant. The small-sized geothermal power plant was expanded to the country's biggest in 2013. Over 60 power plants operate in Turkey , with potential for more. As well as contributing to electricity generation, geothermal energy is also used in direct heating applications. At the end of 2021 Turkey had 1.7 GW installed capacity, the fourth largest in the world after the United States, Indonesia and the Philippines. There is almost 2 GW of  geothermal and sites for much more including enhanced geothermal systems. However carbon dioxide emissions can be high, especially for new plants, so to prevent carbon dioxide dissolved out of the rocks being released into the atmosphere the fluid is sometimes completely reinjected after its heat is used. Nuclear. Turkey's first nuclear power plant, at Akkuyu, is planned to start generation in 2023, and is expected to last for at least 60 years. The nuclear power debate has a long history, with this 2018 construction start in Mersin Province being the sixth major attempt to build a nuclear power plant  since 1960. Nuclear power has been criticised as very expensive to taxpayers. Plans for a nuclear power plant at Sinop and another at İğneada have stalled. Hybrid, distributed and virtual generation. Hybrid generation became more popular in the early 2020s. If distributed generation installed power is under 11 kW it is only allowed to be connected to the low voltage network, not the high voltage network. The first virtual power plant was created in 2017 with wind, solar and hydro; and geothermal was added in 2020. Transmission and storage. The transmission system operator is the Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation (TEİAŞ ), which is a state-owned monopoly as of 2022. It is planned for a minority stake to be sold to the private sector before the end of 2022. Transmission is regulated by the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA). The first long-distance transmission line was from Zonguldak to Istanbul in 1952, and there are 72 thousand km. The grid runs at 400kV and 154kV, and there are over 700 transmission grid substations. Transmission costs, including losses and operation costs, are shared equally between producer and consumer. Reducing grid losses and outages is important, as is improving grid quality. Power consumption  is often distant from generation, so grid improvements are needed to prevent bottlenecks and increase flexibility. There are 11 international interconnectors, including all of Turkey's neighbours by land except Armenia (although relations are improving). Although TEİAŞ is no longer an observer member of ENTSO-E it continues to attend technical discussions of working groups. , links with the EU allow 500 MW export and 650 MW import, whereas trade with other countries is possible but difficult to automate as they do not meet ENTSO-E synchronisation requirements. In 2020 total exports were 2.5 GWh, mostly to Greece, and imports 1.9  GWh, mostly from Bulgaria. According to a 2018 study by Sabancı University, 20% of Turkey's electricity could be generated from wind and solar by 2026 with no extra transmission costs, and 30% with a minor increase in grid investment. With the increase in electricity generated by solar panels, energy storage may become more important. A pumped hydropower plant is planned to be completed by 2022. Converting existing dams to pumped storage has been suggested as more feasible than new pumped storage. Mobile 10 MW batteries may be useful in the future for reducing temporary transmission congestion between regions, or  larger ones for frequency regulation. Adding ice thermal storage to hypermarket cooling systems is estmated to be economically viable. The nationwide blackout in 2015 was not caused by a natural disaster, but by the limited capacity and lack of resilience of the main east-west connection whilst it was being maintained - leaving it unable to redistribute enough of the eastern hydroelectricity to the high consuming west. It did not greatly affect Van Province as it was supplied from Iran, and the EU interconnection helped restore power. More integration with other countries would increase resilience. Distribution. As part of electricity industry  reforms between 2009 and 2013, the ownership of all electricity distribution infrastructure was retained by state owned Turkish Electricity Distribution Corporation (TEDAŞ), but responsibility for operation, maintenance and new investment in distribution networks was transferred to 21 privately owned regional entities under licences from EMRA. Electricity at voltages up to 36kV is distributed by regional companies and many organized industrial zones. There are over a million kilometres of distribution lines, of which about 80% are overhead lines and the rest underground cables. The average losses across all distribution networks (including both technical and non-technical losses) are around 12%. In  2019 TEDAŞ estimated the System Average Interruption Duration Index (OKSÜRE in Turkish) at 1308, which is much worse than neighbouring European countries: however no estimate has been published since then. Nevertheless at least one distribution company measures it, together with the related frequency index (OKSIK in Turkish). There are plans for a smart grid. According to academics at the Shura Energy Center, increasing Turkey's proportion of electric cars to 10% by 2030 would smooth distribution, amongst many other benefits. According to the Chamber of Electrical Engineers, the regional monopolies make excess profits. Their income is determined by EMRA, as  distribution charges are set annually by EMRA. Resilience. Earthquakes in Turkey are common and sometimes cut transmission lines and destroy substations. If the permanent supervisory control centre of a distribution grid is destroyed in a disaster a mobile centre can take control. The installation of more local solar power with batteries, and microgrids in vulnerable places, might help vital buildings such as hospitals retain power after a natural disaster, such as earthquake or flood. Academics suggest that cost–benefit analysis of such emergency power systems should take into account any benefits of resilience and also the cost of installing an  islandable system. Market. Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST), is the electricity market operator company responsible for the day-ahead and intra-day markets. EXIST was established in 2015 and operates under a license from the Energy Markets Regulatory Authority (EMRA). the wholesale price is the same across the country, but it has been suggested that price zones should be defined to reflect network congestion, for example in getting run-of-the river hydropower to consumers. Although the wholesale market is operated by EXIST; prices are controlled by EUAŞ, the state electricity generation company. Gas-fired power stations set the market price . The National Load and Dispatch Centre prepares forward estimates of demand for each hour, and these are used to guide scheduling of generation 24 hours in advance. The Turkish Electricity Transmission Company (TEİAŞ) is the physical operator of the balancing power market and the ancillary services market. Because price is determined at the margin the electricity price is very dependent on the natural gas price. The government has capped the wholesale electricity price at thrice the average of the previous 12 months, which is high enough for gas and imported coal plants to remain in operation even when their fuel  costs are high. Because gas-fired power plants are often the price setters, wholesale electricity prices are strongly influenced by wholesale natural gas prices, which are themselves influenced by the USD exchange rate. Owning over 20% of capacity, the state Electricity Generation Company is a key player in the market along with private wholesalers (such as Enerjisa, Cengiz, Eren, Limak and Çelikler) and an over the counter market. In 2019 150 TWh, about half of the electricity generated, was traded on the day ahead spot market. Market pricing is not completely transparent, cost reflective and non-discriminatory. When the lira  falls bilateral contracts are sometimes unable to compete with regulated tariffs: but when the exchange rate is stable industrial customers prefer bilateral contracts (almost no households are on those). In 2021 EXIST launched an electricity futures market. Although, , there is a lot of excess generation capacity very little is exported. In 2021, Turkey exported 4.1 TWh and imported 2.3 TWh. International trade with some countries is hampered by geopolitical difficulties such as the Cyprus dispute; for example, Turkey will be bypassed by the EuroAsia Interconnector. Because TEIAŞ is not unbundled, it cannot become a full member of the European  Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E), but the grids are synchronised and there is technical co-operation. The grid is linked across most land borders, and about 1% of electricity is imported or exported. Technical studies are being done on increasing connections with the European grid. In 2022 export capacity to Iraq was increased from 150 MW to 500 MW. Some power barges supplying other countries burn heavy fuel oil but plan to convert to LNG. For exports to the EU the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will be phased in from 2023 to 2026. Although Turkish  electricity is likely to be cheaper than that generated in the EU, the impact of the CBAM is unclear as of 2021. More linking transmission is needed, and becoming a full member of ENTSO-E would help exports. Retailing. Although the 2013 Electricity Market Law says that distribution companies cannot retail, most customers buy from retail "arms" of their local distribution companies. Households that consume over a certain amount, and all non-household customers, can switch suppliers. Retail price increases have often been due to depreciation of the lira. Pricing can vary by region, but there is some redistribution , and electricity is subsidized for about 2 million households. An example of a regional retail company is YEPAŞ (P = perakende = retail). European wiring color codes are used. Schuko plugs (plug type C with 2 round pins, and type F with 2 round pins and 2 earth clips) and sockets are the standard, at 230 V and 50 Hz. For public charging of electric vehicles the European standard Combined Charging System is used. As of 2022, there are no Tesla superchargers. After purchasing a property in an urban area earthquake insurance is compulsory before the electricity is connected. In  case of natural disasters or pandemics the Ministry of Energy and Natural resources may cover the financial costs resulting from the postponement (up to one year) of electricity bills, but not the bill amount itself. the VAT rate for residential customers and agricultural irrigation is 8%. Economics and finance. As elsewhere, new renewables are auctioned. In 2019 the value-adjusted levelized cost of energy (VALCOE - the cost including power system value but not environmental externalities) of onshore wind was slightly less than solar PV, but solar PV is expected to become the most cost-competitive power generation technology by the  late 2020s. According to the Chamber of Engineers 75% of electricity in 2021 was dollar indexed. In 2021 new wind and solar became cheaper than existing power stations burning imported coal. , if all currently economic renewable projects were developed, the added electricity generation would be sufficient to reduce Turkey's natural gas imports by 20%, and every GW of solar power installed would save over $100million on the gas bill. According to EMRA exports to the EU accompanied by YEK-G will be exempt from the electricity CBAM. , about 15% of power was generated by the public sector. During  the 2010s, power companies borrowed heavily in dollars, but economic growth was overestimated and they overbuilt generating capacity. This resulted in bank debts of $34 billion by 2019 and revenues declining in dollar terms due to the fall in the lira; furthermore, 7% of debts were non-performing. In the early 2020s, Turkish electricity companies still owe much foreign currency, debt is being restructured and plants are changing ownership. In 2021 BOTAŞ charged more for gas than before, leaving gas-fired power stations at a disadvantage to coal-fired power stations. About half the electricity used in 2019 was  generated from local resources. Total import dependency in the power sector was over 50% in 2019. It has, for example, been predicted that more trade would benefit electricity in Bulgaria by stabilizing its price. The main growth in solar and wind during the 2020s is predicted to be in Renewable Energy Resource Areas(YEKA): these use auctions and include a requirement to manufacture mostly in Turkey. The EU has complained that local content requirements are against trade agreements. Build Own Operate is being used to construct Akkuyu nuclear plant to ensure that responsibility for cost overruns is with Rosatom. Power purchase  agreements are offered by the government both for nuclear and local coal. The financing of the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan and continuation beyond 2023 is unclear. Capacity payments. The capacity mechanism regulation says that the purpose of the payments to create sufficient installed power capacity, including the spare capacity required for supply security in the electricity market, and/or to maintain reliable installed power capacity for long-term system security. The 2021 capacity mechanism budget was 2.6 billion lira (US$ million). Some hydropower, plants burning local coal, and also plants older than 13 years burning imported fuel are eligible. In  2022 ten hydro plants, several gas power plants and many lignite-fired plants were eligible for the capacity mechanism: and capacity payments included variable cost components and the market exchange price, as well as fixed cost components and the total installed power capacity by source. These payments have been criticised by some economists. Feed-in-tariffs. , feed-in-tariffs in lira per MWh are: wind and solar 320, hydro 400, geothermal 540, and various rates for different types of biomass: for all these there is also a bonus of 80 per MWh if local components are used. Tariffs will apply  for 10 years and the local bonus for 5 years. Rates are determined by the presidency, and the scheme replaced the previous USD-denominated feed-in-tariffs for renewable energy. Thus, as in some other countries, the wholesale price of renewable electricity is much less volatile in local currency than the price of fossil fuelled electricity. End user pricing. The complicated system of prices to end consumers is regulated by the government. In 2020, residential consumers paid about 75 lira (US$) per 100 kWh, of which 39 lira (US$) went to generating companies and 21 lira (US$) to distribution companies ; the rest was tax. A green tariff called YETA (the certificates are called YEK-G) to allow consumers to buy only sustainable electricity was introduced in 2021. The YETA price is higher than the regular price by a certain amount per kWh (about 1 lira in 2022). Electricity prices were greatly increased in early 2022 following a large depreciation of the lira in 2021. Household consumption under 210 kWh a month is priced at a cheaper rate. There is some time based pricing: with 2200 to 0600 being cheapest followed by 0600 to 1700, and 1700 to 2200 being the  most expensive. According to Shura Energy Center moving to more time-based end user pricing would be beneficial: with prices being somewhat higher in the early morning and a lot higher in the late afternoon, as there is plenty of sunshine to meet demand in the middle of the day (see also duck curve). Shura suggested in 2020 that future pricing should be more competitive and better reflect costs, with low-income families being continued to be supported with direct payments. Vulnerable families are supported with direct payments for their electricity consumption up to 0.15 MWh/month. In early 2022  prices for small businesses became a political issue, because they had risen a lot due to global energy prices rises and the depreciation of the lira. There were street protests and the main opposition Republican People’s Party leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu refused to pay his own bill in support. The president said that businesses would also be moved to a tiered pricing system, the number of households supported would be almost doubled to four million, and civil society organisations would be moved to the household rate. Greenhouse-gas emissions. Turkey's coal-fired power stations (many of which are subsidized ) are the largest source of greenhouse-gas emissions by Turkey. Production of public heat and electricity emitted 138 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent (e) in 2019, mainly through coal burning. Almost all coal burnt in power stations is local lignite or imported hard coal. Coal analysis of Turkish lignite compared to other lignites shows that it is high in ash and moisture, low in energy value and high in emission intensity (that is Turkish lignite emits more than other countries' lignites per unit of energy when burnt). Although imported hard coal has a lower emission intensity when burnt, as it is  transported much further its life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions are similar to lignite. Unlike other European countries emission intensity has not improved since 1990 and remains over 400gm of CO2/kWh, around the average for G20 countries. Investment in wind and solar is hampered by subsidies for coal. According to a 2021 study by several NGOs if coal power subsidies were completely abolished and a carbon price introduced at around US$40 (which is much cheaper than the EU Allowance) then no coal power plants would be profitable and all would close down before 2030. A 2021 decarbonization plan by  Istanbul Policy Center, a thinktank, has almost all coal power shutdown by 2035; whereas natural gas plants would continue to run to provide flexibility for greatly increased wind and solar, but at a much lower capacity factor. The Turkish Solar İndustry Association suggests that building solar plants next to hydropower would help to stabilize output in times of drought. Shura also suggest that excess renewable electricity could be used to produce green hydrogen. Turkey is not aligned with the EU carbon capture and storage directive. Policy and regulation. Turkey's three main policy objectives are to meet forecast increased demand , a predictable market, and to reduce import costs. To meet these objectives policy includes increasing generation from solar, wind and domestic coal; and adding nuclear. some of these generation methods are subsidized - for example EÜAŞ will purchase the forthcoming nuclear power at an agreed price. Coal is heavily subsidized in Turkey. Storage and transmission improvements are also supported - for example increasing the amount of pumped hydro. The government aims for half of electricity to be from renewable energy by 2023; with capacity targets of 32 GW for hydropower, 12 GW for wind, 10 GW for solar, and 3 GW for  biomass and geothermal combined. Shura Energy Transition Center have suggested that longer-term plans and targets would also be useful, together with a policy on distributed generation, market design to incentivize grid flexibility was also suggested. The objectives are developing local manufacturing capacity such as wind turbines, technology transfer and creating a competitive domestic market for low-cost renewable energy. For wind and solar tenders, there is a high domestic content requirement, and imported solar modules are taxed. According to the European Commission the domestic content requirements contradict World Trade Organization and EU-Turkey Customs Union rules. A solar PV  factory was opened in 2020. Developing regulation to specify the role of aggregators in providing flexibility, and including energy storage systems and demand side management within ancillary services, has been suggested. History. In 1875 a French company was awarded a 5 year concession for: Istanbul's Üsküdar district, Thessaloniki and Edirne. And it was awarded a 4-year concession for electric lighting of several other cities. However, despite the agreement no progress was made. The first power station in the Ottoman Empire was a small hydroelectric power station built in 1902 outside Tarsus. Electricity was transmitted to the city centre  at high voltage, then distributed to customers at low voltage for their lighting. During this period tenders for power were generally awarded to foreigners, due to lack of Ottoman finance and expertise. Generating power in Istanbul for tramlines, lighting and the telephone network from 1914, Silahtarağa Power Station (now a museum that is part of SantralIstanbul) was the first large power station. By the start of the Turkish Republic in 1923, one in twenty of the population was supplied with electricity. Between 1925 and 1933 many cities built diesel fired power stations, and a couple were powered by wood gas . The electricity sector was nationalized in the late 1930s and early 1940s, and by the end of nationalization, almost a quarter of the population was supplied with electricity. However only big cities such as Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir received continuous electricity in the 1950s; other cities were electrified only between dusk and 10 or 11 in the evening. The Turkish Electricity Authority was created in 1970 and consolidated almost all of the sector. By the end of the 20th century, almost all the population was supplied with electricity. Privatization of the electricity sector started in 1984 and began "in earnest