MAANDELIKSE MARK VERSLAG September 2017 | Brenthurst
MAANDELIKSE MARK VERSLAG September 2017
by Admin | Sep 7, 2017 | AFRIKAANSE POSTS | 0 comments
POLITIEKE SPANNING TUSSEN DIE VSA EN NOORD KOREA DUUR VOORT
Die verwagtinge van ŉ konfrontasie tussen die VSA en Noord Korea het die atmosfeer op markte in Augustus oorheers en beleggers het na veilige hawes soos goud en staatseffekte gevlug omdat aandeelmarkte onder druk was. Ondanks hierdie spanning het Amerikaanse markte die maand stewiger afgesluit en die Dow Jones Nywerheidsindeks het op +0.3% gesluit (+11.1% jaar tot datum). Die S&P 500 het die maand net-net hoër afgesluit met ŉ styging van 0.1% maand op maand (+10.4% jaar tot datum) en die Nasdaq, wat deur tegnologieaandele oorheers word, het die maand op +1.3% afgesluit (+19.4% jaar tot datum). Volgens CNBC is dit die vyfde agtereenvolgende maand wat die Dow en S&P hoër sluit, terwyl dit die negende positiewe maand vir die Nasdaq was.
Wat Amerikaanse ekonomiese nuus betref – ŉ ekonomiese groeikoers van 3% jaar op jaar is bekend gemaak, die beste syfer in twee jaar. Daarbenewens is 237 000 werkgeleenthede in die private sektor gevul, die beste syfer in vyf maande. Amerikaanse inflasie bly egter laag en finansiële markte het gemengde verwagtinge van verdere rentekoersverlagings.
Europese markte was teleurstellend en het laer gesluit. Die Duitse DAX was 0.5% laer maand op maand (+5% jaar tot datum), Frankryk se CAC het die maand 0.2% laer gesluit (+4.6% jaar tot datum) en in die VK het die FTSE 100 Indeks effens hoër op +0.8% maand op maand gesluit (+4% jaar tot datum).
Vertroue in die nywerheids- en dienste sektore is meer positief in Europa maar verbruikersvertroue bly onder druk.
In Asië het die Nikkei in Japan die maand 1.4% laer afgesluit (+2.8% jaar tot datum). Groeisyfers vir Japan was hoër as wat algemeen verwag is en ŉ syfer van 4% vir die tweede kwartaal van die jaar is bekend geaak. In China het die Hang Seng indeks steeds opwaarts beweeg en die maand 2.4% hoër afgesluit (+27.1% jaar tot datum). Die Shanghai Saamgestelde Indeks het 2.7% maand op maand gestyg en staan op +8.3% jaar tot datum.
INFLASIE LAER EN GROOT MIELIE-OES VERWAG
Soos in Julie was daar heelwat positiewe nuus betreffende markte en die ekonomie in Augustus. Verbruikersprysinflasie het vir die sesde agtereenvolgende maand gedaal. ŉ Syfer van 4.6% jaar op jaar is vir Julie aangekondig, effens laer as wat deur Reuters se paneel verwag is en beter as die syfer van 5.1% wat in Junie bekend gemaak is. Die handel- en nywerheidsektore het verbeter en volgens mediaberigte beteken dit dat SA uit resessie sal beweeg wanneer die volgende groeikoers aangekondig word. Dit is ook bekend gemaak dat ŉ uitstekende mielieoes verwag word. “Suid-Afrikaanse boere gaan 16.4 miljoen ton mielies oes, die grootste oes op rekord, aldus syfers van die oesraming komitee. Hierdie groot oes beteken groei van 2.78% op syfers wat in Julie bekend geaak is en sal meer as dubbeld die oes van 2016 wees,” aldus ŉ berig in Business Day.
Die JSE het ook goed gevaar. ŉ Lopie in hulpbronaandele het die plaaslike mark ŉ hupstoot gegee en die FTSE JSE Indeks van Alle Aandele het op 25 Augustus ŉ nuwe rekord hoogtepunt van 56 655.9 aangeteken maar effens terug gesak om die maand op 56 522.11 af te sluit – 2.4% hoër as die vorige maand (+11.6% jaar tot datum). Mynaandele het vir die tweede agtereenvolgende maand die beste vertonings gehad. Die Resi-10 het die maand 3.9% hoër afgesluit (jaar tot datum op +11.4%). Die Indi-25 en Fini-25 het ook stygings vir die maand aangeteken en onderskeidelik op +1.7% (+18.4% jaar tot datum) en +2.9% (+4.1% jaar tot datum) gesluit.
In teenstelling met die oorheersing van Naspers in onlangste maande, was die lopie van die JSE in Augustus grootliks te danke aan die goeie vertonings van hulpbronaandele aangedryf deur goeie nuus uit die VSA en China. Hoër kommoditeitspryse en ŉ herstrukturering van die Chinese staalsektor het vraag aangedryf en gevolglik was die drie beste aandele van die maand in die mynbousektor. Assore Ltd het 30.1% hoër as in Julie gesluit en die beste vertoning vir die maand aangeteken.
Sibanye Gold op +23.6% was die tweede beste vertoner ná die maatskappy gesonde groei in inkomste vir die eerste helfte van 2017 aangekondig het. Die mark het ook Sibanye se aankondiging dat hy ŉ goeie tweede helfte van die jaar verwag, verwelkom. Exxaro Resources (+20.2% maand op maand) was in die derde plek nadat die maatsappy soos Sibanye goeie groeisyfers aangekondig het.
Grand Parade Investments, eienaar van Burger King, het die swakste vertoning van die maand aangeteken en met 18.2% maand op maand gedaal, ondanks onlangse dalings in voedselinflasie en die bekendmaking van stygings in die kleinhandelbedryf in Junie. Die kleinhandelbedryf word steeds geraak deur lae verbruiksbesteding, politieke onsekerheid, hoë werkloosheid en ook die resessie. Konstruksiemaatskappy Group Five vaar steeds nie goed nie en die aandeelprys het maand op maand met 17.7% gedaal, wat die aandeel die twee plek in die lys van die swakste vertoners vir die maand plaas. Die energie, olie en gas maatskappy, Consolidated Infrastructure Group was in die derde plek en die aandeelprys het met 11% maand op maand gedaal.
Die beter omstandighede vir die voertuigbedryf duur voort. Die Nasionale Vereniging van Voertuigvervaardigers van SA (Naamsa) het bekend gemaak dat 49 222 nuwe voertuie in Augustus verkoop is, ŉ styging van 3 091 eenhede of 6.7% teenoor die 46 131 voertuie wat in Augustus verlede jaar verkoop is. Nuwe motor het goed verkoop en ŉ totaal van 32 161 eenhede – ŉ styging van 1 654 eenhede of 5.4% teenoor die syfers van Augustus 2016.
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