List of Jamaica hurricanes
The island nation of Jamaica lies in the Caribbean Sea, south of Cuba and west of Hispaniola. It frequently experiences the effects of Atlantic tropical cyclones that track across the Caribbean, with impacting storms often originating east of the Windward Islands or in the southern Caribbean between Nicaragua and Colombia. There are two climatologically favored periods during the year for Jamaica hurricane activity, with the first lasting from August to mid-September and the second occurring during the latter half of October. Observation. The earliest records of Jamaican hurricanes were derived from British observations during the  colonial era, including those curated by British meteorologist William Reid and historians Bryan Edwards and Edward Long. In 2003, weather historical Michael Chenoweth developed a reconstruction of Jamaica's climate in the 18th century based on daily records kept by slaveowner Thomas Thistlewood, finding 12 tropical cyclone that produced gale-force or stronger sustained winds between 1750 and 1786 in Savanna-la-Mar. Thistlewood's observations were one of the first continuous weather records outside of Europe and the United States. Wind directions were also documented, with westerlies indicative of nearby tropical disturbances during the summer rainy season. Formal monitoring  of hurricanes in Jamaica began with the formation of the Jamaican Weather Service in Kingston in 1880. Between its formation and 1896, the agency observed 38 tropical depressions and issued hurricane warnings three times. Tropical cyclones were of great importance to colonial interests due to their effects on crops and the slave trade. Climatology. Tropical cyclones have impacted Jamaica throughout the Atlantic hurricane season between June and November, reflecting a timeframe most conducive to storm development in the Caribbean Sea and Jamaica's rainy season. During the spring, the Azores High shifts north, causing a decrease in wind shear and  the strength of trade winds in the Caribbean and resulting in conditions favorable for convection. In summer, tropical waves are steered westward into the Caribbean by the high-pressure area; these are the primary cause of rainfall and Jamaica and may develop further into hurricanes before reaching the island. Climatologically, there are two peaks in Jamaican hurricane activity in August–September and the latter half of October. Hurricane activity near Jamaica is generally minimal until late July. Based on observations between 1886 and 1996, there is a 48 percent chance that at least one hurricane will threaten Jamaica and a  16 percent change that two or more will threaten the country, with a hurricane threat defined as a storm's center passing within of Jamaica. Tropical waves and tropical cyclones account for 46 percent of destructive floods in Jamaica. Jamaica's hurricanes typically have tropical origins rather than baroclinic ones; only the 1912 hurricane was of baroclinic nature. All landfalling hurricanes developed south of 15°N, and those that form east of the Windward Islands tend to continue west into the Yucatan Peninsula. On average, the southern coast is the most vulnerable to storm impacts. Most hurricanes impacting Jamaica  take a southeast to northwest path, and those that do often approach from south of the island. During the second activity peak in October, storms impacting Jamaica tend to originate from the southern or southwestern Caribbean and are often associated with the monsoon trough rather than tropical waves. These storms develop between Nicaragua and Colombia and track north towards Jamaica. Hurricane activity tends to be reduced during El Niño events when the eastern Pacific Ocean off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador is abnormally warm, due to an increase in vertical wind shear which is disruptive to hurricanes. This is  correlated with a drier and warmer wet season in the Caribbean. Jamaica saw an elevated number of hurricane impacts in the 18th century and early 19th century. There has been an increase in hurricane intensity, frequency, and duration in the Atlantic since the early 1980s. The primary cause remains unknown, with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and climate change discussed as possible but not definitive causes. Based on a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2012, the effects of climate change on storm tracks and frequency are uncertain or marginal, while wind and rainfall intensities are  expected to increase.