#BusinessBrief: Vooruitsigte vir herstel? – Die Ekonomie Blog
#BusinessBrief: Vooruitsigte vir herstel?
Waldo Krugell Julie 13, 2020 Julie 17, 2020 Business brief
(Updated with an English version at the bottom)
Die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie is in resessie en die voorspelling is dat die BBP hierdie jaar met 7% gaan inkrimp. Daar is baie spekulasie oor hoe die herstelpad kan lyk: U-vorm, V-vorm, of L-vorm. Ons weet dat die inperking en inkrimping beteken dat huishoudings en besighede inkomste verloor en dit demp die vraag.
Data van die NIDS-CRAM opname wys dat 31% van huishoudings ‘n vermindering van inkomste beleef het. Data van StatsSA oor die inkomste wat mense huis toe vat wys dat lone en salarisse met 7% afgeneem het. Werknemers wat tussen R6000 en R10000 per maand verdien is veral swaar getref.
Besoeke aan inkopiesentrums is op 70 tot 80% van die vlakke voor die pandemie, en omset is ongeveer 20% laer.
Wat dit vir besighede beteken, hang af van hoe vatbaar die vraag is vir ŉ verandering (vermindering) van inkomste. In Ekonomie praat ons van die inkomste-elastisiteit van vraag.
Wanneer mense se inkomste afneem, bestee hulle gewoonlik minder. Maar, wanneer die inkomste-elastisiteit van vraag hoog is beteken dit dat wanneer inkomste afneem, neem die hoeveelheid gevra met selfs meer af! Daar word gesê dat kopers is baie sensitief vir ŉ verandering in inkomste.
Produkte en dienste kan dan geklassifiseer word volgens hoë en lae inkomste-elastisiteit en of handel toegelaat is, en word, gedurende die inperking.
Die oranje blok wys besteding wat verlore gegaan het tydens die inperking, en in die toekoms gaan die vraag beperk wees omdat mense se inkomste laer is.
Die groen blok se aankope is uitgestel, maar gaan in die toekoms ‘n sterk vraag hê omdat die besteding daarop nie so sensitief is vir ‘n vermindering van inkomste nie.
Die blou blok, onder links is produkte/dienste/bedrywe wat inkomste verloor het tydens die inperking, maar weer ‘n relatiewe sterk vraag sal hê in die toekoms.
Daar behoort oor weer ‘n sterk vraag te wees na die produkte van die blou blok regs bo, maar vir eers word aankope uitgestel omdat inkomste laer is.
As jou besigheid ‘n noodsaaklike produk of diens bied, wat mense koop, selfs al verminder hulle inkomste, is daar goeie vooruitsig vir herstel.
Wat tel as noodsaaklik hang ook af die kopers se vlak van inkomste. Suid-Afrikaanse beramings van inkomste-elastisiteitskoeffisiënte is maar yl gesaai, maar Roelof Burger en medewerkers het in 2015 ŉ artikel gepubliseer waarin hulle data van die 2010 Inkomste- en Bestedingsopname gebruik om onder andere die volgende resultate te kry vir 5 inkomste groepe en ŉ klomp produkkategorieë:
Mens kan die koeffisiënte in Rand-terme interpreteer, byvoorbeeld
Wanneer mense aan die >90% kant van die inkomsteverdeling se inkomste met R1 verminder, sal hulle besteding op vleis, groente en olies met R0,09 verminder. Hulle besteding op klere sal met R0,40 verminder en besteding op rekreasie met R2,04.
Die mense met laer inkomstes sny proporsioneel meer aan die luukse en lekker dinge en proporsioneel minder aan kos.
Lees meer oor die NIDS-CRAM opname en die impak van die inperking op huishoudings.
Lees meer oor Old Mutual se Spaar- en belegginsmonitor en hoe mense agterstallig raak met betalings en besteding sny.
Which industries are going to recover faster? Which ones will struggle?
The South African economy is in recession and the forecast is that GDP will contract by 7% this year. There is a fair bit of speculation about the possible shape of the recovery: U-shape, V-shape, or L-shape? We know that the lockdown and economic contraction means that households and business have lost income and this dampens demand.
Data from the NIDS-CRAM survey shows that 31% of households experienced a reduction in income in April. StatsSA data, up to the end of May, show that take-home income declined by 7%. Employers earning between R6000 and R10000 per month were the hardest hit.
Visits to malls are at 70 to 80% of the levels before the lockdown and turnover is approximately 20% lower.
What this means for business depends on how sensitive the demand is to a change (reduction) in income. In Economics we talk about the income elasticity of demand.
When income decreases, people usually spend less. When the income elasticity of demand is high, a reduction in income causes the quantity demanded to decrease by proportionally more. The buyers are very sensitive to a change in income.
To have a closer look at this products and services can be classified according to high and low income elasticity and whether trade was allowed during the lockdown.
The orange block shows spending that did not happen during the lockdown, and in future will be limited by the loss of income that people have experienced.
The green block shows spending that has been postponed. There should be a strong demand in future, since spending on these items are less sensitive to a reduction in income.
The blue block at the bottom left shows the products/services/industries that lost income during the lockdown, but demand should return strongly.
The demand for the products in the top right-hand block will return later with spending currently postponed due to lower incomes.
South African estimates of income elasticity coefficients are hard to find, but Roelof Burger and co-authors published an article in 2015 in which they used data from the 2010 Income and Expenditure Survey to get the following results.
They estimated income elasticity coefficients for five income groups and a number of product categories:
You can interpret the coefficients in Rand terms, for example:
For high-income earners (>90% side of the distribution) a loss of R1 of income will reduce their spending on meat, vegetables and oils with R0,09. It will reduce their spending on clothing by R0,40 and on recreation by R2,04.
Those with lower incomes cut their spending on luxuries and fun things proportionally more than they cut their spending on food.
Die idee vir hierdie stukkie toepassing van mikro-ekonomie kom van die Managerial Econ blog.
Die navorsing is deur Burger, Coetzee, Kreuser & Rankin, Income and price elasticities of demand in SouthAfrica: An application of the linear expenditure system, WIDER Working Paper, No. 2015/100
Besteding, inkomste-elastisiteit, inperking, Vraag
Vorige Q1 data – Hoe gaan dit met die ekonomie?
Volgende Basiese inkomste-toelaag