In just four decades the systems of statistics in Africa have passed through three seismic waves. The first occurred in the immediate aftermath of decolonisation, when Africa experienced a decade of dramatic development of its systems of national statistics, particularly in the implementation of population censuses and household surveys.
However, by the 1990s, the continent was dogged by dramatic declines and diminished levels of competence in its statistical systems. The proportion of African countries that took part in the 1980, 1990 and 2000 rounds of housing and population censuses, compared to those in other regions of the world, was significantly lower. Africa had undermined the cornerstone for statistical development at a critical moment of its development.
Towards the end of the 1990s, statistical systems of a reasonable number of countries on the continent experienced rapid revival as democracy created a new lease on life. By 2005 all countries on the continent were conscious of the need for a system of statistics, and had expressed commitment to conducting population censuses. The question is whether this third wave of revival in statistics in Africa heralds the beginnings of sustainable statistical systems, or whether, like its predecessor cycle, it will be followed by another decline.
Understanding statistical development requires appreciation of the interplay between economic performance and political stability as well as their relationship to statistical development. In the past, this interplay has worked to the detriment of statistics. However, the same factors now facilitate statistical development, enabling African statisticians to spot opportunities and co-invest in statistical value creation.
Both the president's recent state of the nation address and Wednesday's budget speech by the minister of finance, Trevor Manual, made reference to South Africa's changing status from a beneficiary of assistance to a role player in matters such as peace keeping and post-conflict reconstruction. Similarly, South Africa contributes in important ways to statistical development in Africa, through the role of Statistics SA (Stats SA).
This falls broadly under one of the priority areas of government's programme of action, which has the theme of "a better Africa and a better world". Addressing the jubilee of the South African Statistics Association in 2003, Manuel, posed five challenges to statisticians. He lamented the lack of trust in statistics, poverty of statistical skills, mediocre discourse where results trump methods, and the onerous requirements of playing in a "higher league" of statistical practice, where the International Monetary Fund's special data dissemination standards set the benchmark.
Before the minister posed these challenges, Stats SA began moving into a leadership and support role in Africa. It hosted international conferences on censuses in 2001 and 2003. In 2005 South Africa hosted the Commonwealth Conference of Official Statistics. From 1997, South Africa became a focal point for the Southern African Development Conference's (SADC) millennium census project, including training for countries outside of the SADC area.
Currently South Africa is running a survey methodology programme with Westat, with two representatives from each SADC state participating.
Under the chairmanship of South Africa, the UN's Economic Commission for Africa (Uneca) created the African Symposia for Statistical Development in 2005. This will see each of the member states host a leg in a 53-year journey launched by in Cape Town in 2006. Three symposiums have been held so far, in Cape Town, Kigali and Accra. Next is Luanda.
Stats SA contributed significantly to the resuscitation of the statistics function at Uneca. South Africa will, within two years, open its Statistics Institute, where African statisticians will train in official statistics, geographic information systems and statistical leadership. South Africa will be hosting the 57th Session of the International Statistical Institute. In preparation for this, Stats SA is contributing to a number of preparatory initiatives, including the June 2008 Young Statistician Conference, which South Africa will host.
The development of statistics in Africa is on the right path. In collaboration with other partners, Stats SA still plays an important role in sustaining and strengthening the African revival of official statistics.