Iimpawu ezinkulu zoQoqosho, iiNkcazo zokuThengiswa kweeNkcazo
Kubaluleka kweeNkcukacha zoQoqosho
Izalathisi zoqoqosho zizibalo eziphambili ezibonisa ulwalathiso loqoqosho. Iziganeko ezibalulekileyo zezoqoqosho ziqhuba ukunyuka kwexabiso lephambili, ngoko kubalulekile ukufumana iindwendwe-ezicwangcisiweyo zentlalo yeemeko zoqoqosho ukuze kwenziwe uhlalutyo olusisiseko, oluya kwenza abahwebi be-Forex benze izigqibo zokurhweba.
Ukutolika nokuhlalutya izalathisi kubalulekile kubo bonke abatyali-mali njengoko bebonisa impilo yonke yezoqoqosho, balindele ukuzinza kwabo kwaye banceda abatyali-mali ukuba baphendule ngexesha kwiimeko ezizenzekelayo okanye ezingenakuqikelelwa, ezikwaziyo nangokutshatyalaliswa koqoqosho. Baya kuthiwa bathunyelwe njengesixhobo sesebe sorhwebo njengoko kubonakalisa oko kuza kulandelayo, into enokulindela koqoqosho kunye naluphi ulwalathiso lweemarike ezithathayo.
I-PRODUCTS YOKUSEBENZA KWI-GROSS (GDP)
Ingxelo ye-GDP yenye yeyona nto ibaluleke kakhulu kuzo zonke izikhombisi zezoqoqosho, njengoko kuyona mlinganiselo omkhulu woluqoqosho jikelele. Yonke ixabiso lentengo yazo zonke iimpahla kunye nenkonzo eveliswa ngoqoqosho lonke ngexesha lekota lilinganiselwe (alubandakanyi imisebenzi yomhlaba wonke) .Umveliso wezoqoqosho kunye nokukhula-yiyiphi i-GDP imele, inempembelelo enkulu phantse wonke umntu ngaphakathi qoqosho. Ngokomzekelo, xa uqoqosho lusempilweni, oko esiza kubona ngokubakho ukungafuneki kwemisebenzi kunye nokunyuka kwamaholo njengoko amabhizinisi adinga abasebenzi ukuba bahlangabezane noqoqosho olukhula. Utshintsho olukhulu kwiGDP, phezulu okanye phantsi, ngokuqhelekileyo lunempembelelo enkulu kwimarike, ngenxa yokuba uqoqosho olubi ludla lithetha ukufumana imali encinci kwiinkampani, eziguqulela kwimali ephantsi kunye namanani e-stock. Abatyalomali bakhathazeke ngokwenene ngokukhula kakubi kweGDP, enye yezona zinto zorhwebo ezisetyenziselwa ukuchonga ukuba uqoqosho lusezingeni lomhlaba.
I-PRESIMER PRICE INDEX (CPI)
Le ngxelo imilinganiselo esetyenziswa kakhulu kumlinganiselo wokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ilinganisa utshintsho kwiindleko zesiqhelo sempahla yabathengi kunye neenkonzo ukusuka ngenyanga ukuya kwenyanga. Ibhasikidi leemarike zonyaka-mali apho i-CPI yenziwe khona, ivela kwiinkcukacha ezenkcukacha eziqokelelelwe kwizinkulungwane zeentsapho ngaphesheya kwe-US ibhasikidi inamalungu angaphezu kwama-200 eempahla kunye neenkonzo ezihlukaniswe ngamaqela asibhozo: ukutya kunye nokusela, izindlu , isambatho, izithuthi, ukunakekelwa kwezonyango, ukuzonwabisa, imfundo kunye noqhagamshelwano kunye nezinye iimpahla kunye neenkonzo. Amanyathelo amanyathelo athathweyo ekusekeni umfanekiso ocacileyo weenguqu kwiindleko zokuphila unceda abadlali bezemali ukuba bafumane ingqiqo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso, oku kunokutshabalalisa uqoqosho ukuba lulawulwa. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwiimpahla kunye neenkonzo kunokuchaphazela ngokuqinisekileyo izitheno zengeniso (fixed investment) (intshawulo-mali eyenza ukubuyiswa ngendlela ehlawulwayo kunye neentlawulo zokubuya kweenqununu ngokukhula). Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuthobekileyo kunye nokunyameko kulindelwe kulomnotho okhulayo, kodwa ukuba amaxabiso ezincedo ezisetyenziselwa ukuvelisa izinto ezilungileyo kunye neenkonzo ziphakama ngokukhawuleza, abavelisi banokufumana ukunciphisa inzuzo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuchithwa kungabonakalisa uphawu lokuncipha kweemfuno zabathengi.
I-CPI mhlawumbi ibonakaliso lwezoqoqosho olubaluleke kakhulu kwaye lubonwe ngokubanzi kwaye kuyona ndlela eyaziwayo kakhulu yokugqiba iindleko zokutshintsha ubomi. Isetyenziselwa ukulungelelanisa umvuzo, iintlawulo zomhlalaphantsi, iibhakethi zerhafu kunye nezinye izikhombisi zezoqoqosho ezibalulekileyo. Ingakwazi ukuxelela abatyali-mali bezinto ezinokuthi zenzeke kwiimarike zemali, ezabelana ngokubambisana ngokuthe ngqo kunye nongqalileyo kunye namanani abathengi.
UKUTHETHA I-PRICE INDEX (PPI)
Ngokubambisana ne-CPI, le ngxelo ibonakala njengenye yezona zinto zibalulekileyo zokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ilinganisa intengo yeempahla kwinqanaba le-wholesale. Ngokwehluke kwi-CPI, i-PPI ilinganisa indlela abavelisi abaninzi abafumana ngayo iimpahla ngelixa i-CPI ilinganisa indleko ezihlawulwa ngabathengi kwimpahla. Isibakala esikhulu kunazo zonke kwamehlo abatyali-mali banakho ukukwazi ukuxela i-CPI. Iingcamango kukuba ukunyuka kweendleko ezininzi ezifunyanwa ngabathengisi ziya kudluliselwa kubathengi. Eminye yamandla ePPI yile:
Isalathisi esona sichanekileyo seCPI esizayo
Ixesha 'elide lomsebenzi' lenkcazo yedatha
Ukuphuka okulungileyo kubatyalomali kwiinkampani ezicatshangelwe (ukulinganisa, ulwazi lwezinto zokuthengisa, ezinye iinkonzo zamasevisi
Unokuhambisa iimarike ngokuthe tye
Idatha inikwe kwaye ngaphandle kokulungiswa kwexesha
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ubuthathaka:
Izinto ezinokuzithengisa, ezifana namandla kunye nokutya kunokusondeza idatha
Azikho onke amashishini ekuhlaleni
I-PPI ifumana ubuninzi bokubhenkceka kwexabiso layo lokunyuka kwexabiso kwaye ingajongwa njengomqhubi wemakethe ochaphazelayo. Ku luncedo kubatyalomali kumashishini ahlanganiswe ngokwemigangatho yokuhlalutya ukuthengiswa kweentengiso kunye nemigangatho yokuzuza.
IINKCUKACHA ZEZITHILI ZEMALI
Le ngxelo ibonisa imilinganiselo yeempahla ezithengiswa ngaphakathi kwishishini elithengisayo kwaye kuthatha isampuli yesethi yokuthengisa iimpahla kwilizwe lonke. Ibonisa idatha ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo. Iinkampani zonke ubukhulu zisetyenziselwa uphando, ukusuka kuWal-Mart ukuya kwiindawo ezizimeleyo, amashishini asezidolophini. Njengoko uphononongo luza kubandakanya ukuthengiswa kwenyanga eyadlulileyo, yenza ukuba kubekho uphawu olufike ngexesha lokusebenza kolu shishino lubalulekileyo kodwa kumgangatho wexabiso lemisebenzi ngokubanzi. Intengiso yokuThengisa ithathwa njengesicatshulwa (i-metric ebonisa imeko yangoku yezoqoqosho kwimimandla ethile) njengoko ibonisa imeko yangoku yezoqoqosho, kwaye ikwaqwalaselwa njengento ebalulekileyo ye-inflationary indicator, eyenza inzala enkulu Ababukeli beWall Street kunye neBhodi yokuHlola yeNgqungquthela elandelela idatha yabalawuli beBhodi yeBhodi yeSigqeba. Ukukhululwa kweNgxelo yokuThengiswa kweNtengiso kungabangela ngaphezu kwentando yesilinganiso kwimarike.
Ukucaca kwayo njengengqondo yokunyusa uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwexabiso kunokubangela ukuba abatyali-mali bahlaziyeke amathuba okunciphisa ama-Fed ukunyuka okanye ukunyuka, kuxhomekeke kwisikhokelo somgaqo. Ngokomzekelo, ukunyuka okuthe ngqo kwintengiso yokuthengisa ngaphakathi kwimijikelezo yoshishino kunokulandelwa ukunyuka kwexesha elifutshane kwimilinganiselo yenzalo yiFed ngethemba lokuthintela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ukuba ukukhula kweentengiso kugxininiswe okanye kuphuculwa, oku kuthetha ukuba abathengi abayichithanga kumazinga adlulileyo kwaye banokuthi bangabonakaliswa kwemali ngenxa yendima ebalulekileyo ekusebenziseni kwabo kwimpilo yezoqoqosho.
Isibhengezo somsebenzi esibaluleke kakhulu senziwa ngoLwesihlanu wokuqala ngenyanga. Kubandakanya izinga lokungabikho kwemisebenzi (ipesenti yomsebenzi ongasebenzi, inani lemisebenzi elenziweyo, iiyure eziqhelekileyo ezisebenzayo ngeveki kunye nemivuzo engama-iriyure). Le ngxelo idla ngokubangela ukunyakaza okukhulu kwemarike. Ingxelo ye-NFP (Ingxelo engekho-yeNgqesho) mhlawumbi ingxelo enegunya elikhulu lokuhambisa iimarike. Ngenxa yoko abaninzi abahlalutyi, abahwebi kunye nabatyalomali balindele inombolo ye-NFP kunye nokunyakaza okuya kubangela. Ngamaqela amaninzi ebukele le ngxelo kwaye eyiguqulela, nangona xa inani liza ngokuhambelana nokuqikelelwa, lingenza ukuba izinga elikhulu liguquke.
Njengokuba kukho ezinye iizalathisi, umahluko phakathi kwedatha ekhoyo ye-NFP kunye namanani alindelekileyo uya kugqiba umphumo wonke weedatha kwimarike. Kwimivuzo yokuhlawula engekho yefama, iyona nto ibonisa ukuba uqoqosho lukhula kwaye ngokulandelana. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba ukwanda kwe-NFP kwenzeka ngezinga elikhawulezayo, oku kungakhokelela ekunyuseni kwimali yokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
INKQUBO YOKUSEBENZA KWESIBONELELO INDEX (CCI)
Njengoko igama libonisa, eli lathisi lilinganisa ukuzithemba kwabathengi. Kucaciswa njengedinga lokuba nethemba lokuba abathengi banalo ngokwemeko yoqoqosho, oluchazwa ngabasebenzisi bokugcina nokuchitha imali. Esi sibonakaliso sezoqoqosho sikhishwe ngoLwesibili ophelileyo lwenyanga, kwaye silinganisa indlela abantu abanentembelo abazijonga ngayo ngokuzinyameka kwengeniso echaphazela ngqo kwizigqibo zabo zoqoqosho, ngamanye amazwi, umsebenzi wabo wokuchitha imali. Ngenxa yesi sizathu, iCCI ibonwa njengotyikityo oluphambili lobunzima bezoqoqosho.
Imilinganiselo isetyenziswe njengendlela yokubonisa inqanaba lomlinganiselo wexabiso lomhlaba wesiqhelo kunye ne-Federal Reserve ibheka i-CCI xa ichonga utshintsho lwentengo.
Le ngxelo inika umlinganiselo wendlela abantu abayichitha ngayo ekuthengeni kwexesha elide (iimveliso ezilindeleke ukuba zigcine ngaphezu kwe-3 iminyaka) kwaye inokunika ingqiqo kwixesha elizayo loshishino lokuvelisa. Ku luncedo kubatyalo-mali kuphela kwimigangatho yokumisela yamanqanaba, kodwa njengomqondiso weemfuno zeshishini ngokupheleleyo. Iimpahla eziyinkunzi zibonisa ukuphuculwa kweendleko eziphezulu kwiinkampani ezingenza kwaye zibonakalise ukuzithemba kwiimeko zezoshishino, ezinokukhokelela ekuthengiseni ukwandisa ukukhutshwa kweenkonzo kunye nokuzuza kwimivuzo yokusebenza kunye neye-farm. Ezinye zeempawu zamanqwanqwa eempahla eziqinileyo zi:
Ukuchithwa kweshishini elihle
Iinkcukacha zinikezelwe ngokukrazuka kunye neenguqulelo zonyaka
Unika idatha ekhangele phambili njengamanqanaba okubala kunye ne-shishini elitsha, elibalelwa kumvuzo ozayo
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ubuthathaka obunokuthi lubonwe yilo:
Isampula yesava ayinaso ukuchithwa kwemilinganiselo yokulinganisa ukulinganisa impazamo
Iphakame kakhulu; Imimandla ehambayo kufuneka isetyenziswe ukuchonga ukuhamba kwexesha elide
Ingxelo ngokubanzi inika ingqiqo ngakumbi kwiinkqubo zokubonelela ezininzi izikhombisi, kwaye zinokukunceda ngokukhethekileyo ekuncediseni abatyali-mali ukuba bazive ngeenzuzo zokufumana iimali kwiinkampani ezimele kakhulu.
Umhla wokukhutshwa kwesi sibonakaliso ngantoni yesithathu ngaphambi kokuba yonke intlanganiso ye-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kwiintlawulo zerhafu, amaxesha asibhozo (8) ngonyaka. Igama elithi 'Beige Book' lisetyenziselwa ingxelo yeFed ebizwa ngokuthi Isishwankathelo seNgcaciso kwiiMeko zoQoqosho zoNyaka kwiSithili seState Reserve.
Incwadi ethi Beige ngokubanzi iqukethe iingxelo ezivela kwiibhanki kunye nodliwano-ndlebe kunye nezoqoqosho, iingcali zeemarike, njl njl. Kwaye zisetyenziselwa ukwazisa amalungu ekutshintshweni koqoqosho oluya kwenzeka kwintlanganiso yokugqibela. Iingxoxo eziqhelekileyo zibanjwe zijikeleze iimarike zabasebenzi, umvuzo kunye neengxaki zokuthengisa, ukuthengisa kunye ne-ecommerce kunye nokuveliswa kwemveliso. Ukubaluleka kweencwadi ze-beige eziza kubatyalomali kukuba ziyakubona iimpendulo ezikhangele phambili kwaye zinokukunceda ekuqikeleleni ukuhamba kunye nokulindela utshintsho kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezizayo.
Amanqanaba anomdla kukuba ngabaqhubi abakhulu beemakethe zangaphambili kunye nazo zonke izikhombisi zezoqoqosho ezikhankanywe ngasentla zijongwa ngokugqithisiweyo yiKomiti ye-Federal Open Market ukuze kuqinisekiswe yonke imicimbi yezoqoqosho. I-Fed ingenza isigqibo ngokufanelekileyo ukuba ngaba iya kunciphisa, iphakame okanye ishiye ixabiso lentengo ingatshintshi, konke kuxhomekeke kubungqina obuhlanganiswe kwimpilo yoqoqosho. Ubukho bemilinganiselo yenzala buvumela aboboleki ukuba bachithe imali ngokukhawuleza kunokulinda ukugcina imali yokuthenga. Ukuhlawula umyinge wenzala, abantu abazimisele ngakumbi ukuboleka imali ukwenza izinto ezinkulu, ezifana nezindlu okanye iimoto. Xa abathengi behlawula imali encinci, inika imali ethe xaxa yokuchitha imali leyo engabangela umonakalo wokunyuka kwemali kulo lonke uqoqosho. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ixabiso lentengo ephakamileyo lithetha ukuba abathengi abanakho imali engenayo kwaye banokunciphisa imali. Xa izinga eliphezulu lezala linxulumene nemigangatho yokuboleka imali, iibhanki zenza iimboleko ezimbalwa. Oku kuchaphazela abathengi, amashishini kunye namafama azonqumla ukusetyenziswa kwezinto zokusebenza ezintsha, ngokunjalo ukunciphisa umkhiqizo okanye ukunciphisa inani labasebenzi. Nanini na ukuba inzala yenzalo ikhuphuka okanye iwa, siva malunga nereyiti yemali yomgaqo-mali (ibhanki yokusebenzisa imali ukuboleka enye imali). Utshintsho kwimilinganiselo yenzalo lunokuchaphazela kokubili ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokunciphisa imali. Ixabiso lentengo libhekisela ekunyusweni kwexabiso lempahla kunye neenkonzo ngexesha, ngenxa yoluqoqosho oluzinzileyo nolulondolozo. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kushiywe kungagqalwa, kunokukhokelela ekulahlekelweni okukhulu kwamandla okuthenga. Njengoko kubonakala, iirhafu zenzalo zichaphazela uqoqosho ngokuchaphazela ukusetyenziswa kwemali yabathengi kunye nezoshishino, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokuhanjiswa kwemali. Ngokulungelelanisa ireyiti yemali ye-federal, iFed inceda ukugcina uqoqosho lubhalise kwixesha elide.
Ukuqonda ubudlelwane phakathi kwezinga lentlalo kunye noqoqosho lwe-US, lunceda abatyali-mali ukuba baqonde umfanekiso omkhulu kwaye benze izigqibo zokutshala imali.
Ingxelo ibandakanya inani lamakhaya amatsha aqalise ukwakha ngaphakathi kwenyanga kunye nokuthengisa kwekhaya elikhoyo. Umsebenzi wokuhlala indawo yimbangela ebalulekileyo yokuvuselela iimeko zezoqoqosho zelizwe kwaye inomlinganiselo omhle woqoqosho. Ukuthengwa kwekhaya eliphantsi kunye nokuqala kwekhaya elitsha kungabonwa njengophawu loqoqosho olubuthathaka. Zomibini iimvume zokwakha kunye nezibalo zezindlu ziya kuboniswa njengenguqu yepesenti ukusuka kwinyanga yangaphambili kunye nonyaka onyaka-nyaka. Izindlu eziqalayo kunye nezakhiwo zokwakha zibonwa njengezikhombisi eziphambili, kwaye izibalo zemvume yokwakha zisetyenziselwa ukulinganisa iNkcazo yeBhunga le-US leading Index (isalathiso esetyenziswe nyanga zonke ukuxela ukulandelwa kohambo lwezoqoqosho lwehlabathi kwiinyanga ezizayo). Oku akunjalo ingxelo ephazamisayo iimarike, nangona abanye abahlalutyi basebenzise ingxelo yokuqala yezindlu ukunceda ukudala ukuqikelelwa kwamanye amanqaku asekelwe kubathengi.
Ingxelo yenkcazo yenziwa yiBhunga loCalulo loQoqosho (BEA) ngekota nganye kwaye isishwankathela ingeniso yemali yeenkampani kwiNkcazo yeNgeniso kaZwelonke kunye neNkcukacha zeMveliso (iNIPA).
Ukubaluleka kwabo kubangelwa ukulungiswa kunye ne-GDP, njengenzuzo eqinile yenkampani kubonisa ukunyuka kokuthengisa nokukhuthaza ukukhula komsebenzi. Amashishini asebenzise inzuzo yabo ukuphakamisa imali, ahlawule igalelo kubani-masheya okanye bahlawule imali kwi-shishini labo. Ukongezelela, abatyali-mali bajonga amathuba atyalo-mali, ngoko ke banyusela ukusebenza kwemarike yempahla.
I-Balance Balance yohlukwano phakathi kokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kunye nokuthumela ngaphandle kwelizwe elinikwe ngexesha elifanelekileyo. Isetyenzisiwe ngabachumi njengethuluzi lokubala, njengoko libenza bakwazi ukuqonda amandla enxulumene noqoqosho lwelizwe oluqhathaniswa nolunye uqoqosho lwamazwe kunye nokuhamba kweentengiso phakathi kweentlanga.
Izibhengezo zorhwebo ziyanqweneleka, apho ixabiso elithembekileyo lithetha ukuba amazwe angaphandle athengiswayo; ngelixa kwelinye icala, ukulahlekelwa kweentengiso kungakhokelela ekubeni kukho ityala eliphambili lekhaya.
Inkcazo ipapashwa rhoqo ngenyanga.
Isilinganiselo soluhlu lulona lubonakaliso lwezoqoqosho lwempilo yonke yezoqoqosho, echazwe ngumbono womthengi. Iqulethwe yimvakalelo yempilo yangoku yemali yomntu, impilo yezoqoqosho kwintetho ngexesha elifutshane kunye nezibikezelo zokukhula koqoqosho lwexesha elide.
Imvakalelo yabathengi ingasetyenziselwa ukujonga indlela abantu abanethemba okanye abangathembekanga ngayo kwiimeko zemarike zangoku.
I-PMI yokuThengisa ibonakalisa impilo yempilo yecandelo lokuvelisa kwelizwe elinikeziweyo. Isalathiso sisekelwe kwiingxelo zabaphathi bezentengiso kwiinkampani ezihamba phambili kwicandelo lokuvelisa, ukulinganisa uluvo lwabo lwalooqoqosho loqoqosho kunye neengxaki ezizayo.
Isalathisi sishicilelwe nguMarit and ISM, apho uphando lwe-ISM lubonwa njengabaluleke kakhulu.
Ukunyuswa kwesalathiso kubangela ukuqiniswa kwemali kwaye uphawu lwe-50 libhekwa njengelona nqanaba eliphambili, ngasentla apho umsebenzi wezoshishino okhulayo uphuma kwaye ngezansi ziyahla.
Inkcazo ye-Manufacturing PMI ipapashwa rhoqo ngenyanga.