Stats SA today announces the release of the new wholesale trade, motor trade and retail trade figures. For 2003 wholesale trade shows an increase in levels of 17%, motor trade 17% and retail trade 20%, compared with the old series. Even though there is a change in levels, the trends remain similar. This means that the rate of change at the macro-economic level, as measured by the GDP, remains largely unaffected.
The Statistician-General, Pali Lehohla, said that these releases comprise the second round of publications in economic statistics since these series were temporarily suspended in March 2004.
Mr Lehohla also explained that Stats SA needed more time "to make sure of the reliability of the new series, which we have done and therefore can now release these statistics today".
In May, when Stats SA released the manufacturing figures, the Statistician-General announced that the new releases were "the outcome of a strategic, systematic approach to the overhaul of economic statistics since 1996". This overhaul was made possible because of legislative changes in 1998, which gave Stats SA direct access to VAT registration and other business data. A new VAT-based register was then constructed, from which new samples were drawn, which ran parallel with existing samples in 2003. The old samples were then discontinued at the end of 2003.
Mr Lehohla explained that the increase in levels in all three surveys released today is consistent with the manufacturing statistics released last month. "The increases are a direct consequence of the major drive to improve the coverage of economic series. They are based on a new, much more comprehensive register of businesses," the SG said.
He added that the unchanged trend patterns in retail, wholesale and motor trade are in line with findings in the new manufacturing short-term series.
The increase in levels is also consistent with higher levels in other Stats SA series. For example, 2003 employment figures from the Survey of Employment and Earnings showed large increases in level across all industries when the survey migrated to the new register of businesses.
Lehohla reported that from the middle of this year new samples for short-term indicators will also be drawn from the enhanced business register. He said that this will result in further increases in level, but they are expected to be less than the increases experienced in the current series of surveys.
The Statistician-General said that economic statistics are now benefiting from the decision to make sure of the reliability of the statistics when it suspended publication in March 2004, "because economic statistics require the best possible register of businesses by activity, size and location to underpin all Stats SA business surveys".
Stats SA is therefore now in a position to resume the established publication timetable for all monthly economic statistics series.