  We use learning data of an e-assessment platform for an introductory
mathematical statistics course to predict the probability of passing the final
exam for each student. Based on these estimated probabilities we sent warning
emails to students in the next cohort with a low predicted probability to pass.
We analyze the effect of this treatment and propose statistical models to
quantify the effect of the email notification. We detect a small but
imprecisely estimated effect suggesting effectiveness of such interventions
only when administered more intensively.
