  Abortion is one of the biggest causes of maternal deaths, accounting for 15%
of maternal deaths in Southeast Asia. The increase in and effectiveness of
using contraception are still considered to be the effective method to reduce
abortion rate. Data pertaining to abortion incidence and effective efforts to
reduce abortion rate in Indonesia is limited and difficult to access. Meanwhile
such supporting information is necessary to enable the planning and evaluation
of abortion control programs. This paper exemplifies the use of a mathematical
model to explain an abortion decline scenario. The model employs determinants
proposed by Bongaarts, which include average reproductive period, contraceptive
prevalence and effectiveness, total fertility rate (TFR), and intended total
fertility rate (ITFR), as well as birth and abortion intervals. The data used
is from the 1991-2007 Indonesian Demography and Health Survey (Survei Demografi
dan Kesehatan Indonesia/SDKI), and the unit of analysis is women who had been
married and aged 15-49 years old. Based on the current contraceptive prevalence
level in Indonesia at 59-61%, the estimated total abortion rate is 1.9-2.2.
Based on the plot of this total abortion rate, an abortion decline scenario can
be estimated. At the current TFR level of 2.6, the required contraceptive
prevalence is 69% (9% increase) for a decrease of one abortion case per woman.
With a delay of one year in the age of the first marriage and a birth interval
of three years, it is estimated that the abortion rate will decline from 3.05
to 0.69 case per woman throughout her reproductive period. Based on the
assumption of contraceptive prevalence growth at 1-1.4%, it can be estimated
that abortion rate will reach nearly 0 between 2018 and 2022.
