  Public transport ridership around the world has been hit hard by the COVID-19
pandemic. Travellers are likely to adapt their behaviour to avoid the risk of
transmission and these changes may even be sustained after the pandemic. To
evaluate travellers' behaviour in public transport networks during these times
and assess how they will respond to future changes in the pandemic, we conduct
a stated choice experiment with train travellers in the Netherlands. We
specifically assess behaviour related to three criteria affecting the risk of
COVID-19 transmission: (i) crowding, (ii) exposure duration, and (iii)
prevalent infection rate.
  Observed choices are analysed using a latent class choice model which reveals
two, nearly equally sized traveller segments: 'COVID Conscious' and 'Infection
Indifferent'. The former has a significantly higher valuation of crowding,
accepting, on average 8.75 minutes extra waiting time to reduce one person
on-board. Moreover, they demonstrate a strong desire to sit without anybody in
their neighbouring seat and are quite sensitive to changes in the prevalent
infection rate. By contrast, Infection Indifferent travellers' value of
crowding (1.04 waiting time minutes/person) is only slightly higher than
pre-pandemic estimates and they are relatively unaffected by infection rates.
We find that older and female travellers are more likely to be COVD Conscious
while those reporting to use the trains more frequently during the pandemic
tend to be Infection Indifferent. Further analysis also reveals differences
between the two segments in attitudes towards the pandemic and self-reported
rule-following behaviour. The behavioural insights from this study will not
only contribute to better demand forecasting for service planning but will also
inform public transport policy decisions aimed at curbing the shift to private
modes.
