  The development and authorization of COVID-19 vaccines has provided the
clearest path forward to eliminate community spread hence end the ongoing
SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the limited pace at which the vaccine can be
administered motivates the question, to what extent must we continue to adhere
to social intervention measures such as mask wearing and social distancing? To
address this question, we develop a mathematical model of COVID-19 spread
incorporating both vaccine dynamics and socio-epidemiological parameters. We
use this model to study two important measures of disease control and
eradication, the effective reproductive number $R_t$ and the peak intensive
care unit (ICU) caseload, over three key parameters: social measure adherence,
vaccination rate, and vaccination coverage. Our results suggest that, due to
the slow pace of vaccine administration, social measures must be maintained by
a large proportion of the population until a sufficient proportion of the
population becomes vaccinated for the pandemic to be eradicated. By contrast,
with reduced adherence to social measures, hospital ICU cases will greatly
exceed capacity, resulting in increased avoidable loss of life. These findings
highlight the complex interplays involved between vaccination and social
protective measures, and indicate the practical importance of continuing with
extent social measures while vaccines are scaled up to allow the development of
the herd immunity needed to end or control SARS-CoV-2 sustainably.
