  We develop a quantitative framework for understanding the class of wicked
problems that emerge at the intersections of natural, social, and technological
complex systems. Wicked problems reflect our incomplete understanding of
interdependent global systems and the hyper-risk they pose; such problems
escape solutions because they are often ill-defined and thus mis-identified and
under-appreciated by problem-solvers and the communities they constitute.
Because cross-boundary problems can be dissected from various viewpoints, such
diversity can nevertheless contribute confusion to the collective understanding
of the problem. We illustrate this paradox by analyzing the development of both
topical and scholarly communities within three wicked domains: deforestation,
invasive species, and wildlife trade research. Informed by comprehensive
bibliometric analysis of both topical and collaboration communities emerging
within and around each domain, we identify symptomatic characteristics of
wicked uncertainty based upon quantitative assessment of consolidation or
diversification of knowledge trajectories representing each domain. We argue
that such knowledge trajectories are indicative of the underlying uncertainties
of each research domain, which tend to exacerbate the wickedness of the problem
itself. Notably, our results indicate that wildlife trade may become a
neglected wicked problem due to high uncertainty, research paucity, and delayed
knowledge consolidation.
