  The skepticism towards childhood vaccines and genetically modified (GM) food
has grown against scientific evidence of their safety. Distrust in scientific
research has important societal consequences, from the spread of diseases to
hunger in poorer regions. However, these scientific beliefs are hard to change
because they are entrenched within many related moral beliefs and perceived
beliefs of one's social network. To understand when belief change is possible,
we propose a cognitive network model which integrates both moral and social
beliefs and provides testable empirical predictions. Using a probabilistic
nationally representative longitudinal study, we find that individuals who
changed their beliefs, either towards more positive or negative beliefs about
childhood vaccines or GM food, had a reduction in the estimated dissonance of
their cognitive belief network. These results are in line with model
predictions, shed light on the mechanisms leading to belief change, and have
implications for science communication.
