  The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused tremendous amount
of deaths and a devastating impact on the economic development all over the
world. Thus, it is paramount to control its further transmission, for which
purpose it is necessary to find the mechanism of its transmission process and
evaluate the effect of different control strategies. To deal with these issues,
we describe the transmission of COVID-19 as an explosive Markov process with
four parameters. The state transitions of the proposed Markov process can
clearly disclose the terrible explosion and complex heterogeneity of COVID-19.
Based on this, we further propose a simulation approach with heterogeneous
infections. Experimentations show that our approach can closely track the real
transmission process of COVID-19, disclose its transmission mechanism, and
forecast the transmission under different non-drug intervention strategies.
More importantly, our approach can helpfully develop effective strategies for
controlling COVID-19 and appropriately compare their control effect in
different countries/cities.
