  Identifying the real causes of democracy is an ongoing debate. We contribute
to the literature by examining the robustness of a comprehensive list of 42
potential determinants of democracy. We take a step forward and employ
Instrumental Variable Bayesian Model Averaging (IVBMA) method to tackle
endogeneity explicitly. Using the data of 111 countries, our IVBMA results mark
arable land as the most persistent predictor of democracy with a posterior
inclusion probability (PIP) of 0.961. Youth population (PIP: 0.893), life
expectancy (PIP: 0.839), and GDP per capita (PIP: 0.758) are the next critical
independent variables. In a subsample of 80 developing countries, in addition
to arable land (PIP: 0.919), state fragility proves to be a significant
determinant of democracy (PIP: 0.779).
