  Objective. The COVID-19 pandemic has threatened to collapse hospital and ICU
services, and it has affected the care programs for non-COVID patients. The
objective was to develop a mathematical model designed to optimize predictions
related to the need for hospitalization and ICU admission by COVID-19 patients.
  Design. Prospective study. Setting. Province of Granada (Spain). Population.
Consecutive COVID-19 patients hospitalized, admitted to ICU, recovered and died
from March 15 to September 22, 2020. Study variables. The number of patients
infected with SARS-CoV-2 and hospitalized or admitted to ICU for COVID-19.
  Results. The data reported by hospitals was used to develop a mathematical
model that reflects the flow of the population among the different interest
groups in relation to COVID-19. This tool has allowed us to analyse different
scenarios based on socio-health restriction measures, and to forecast the
number of people infected, hospitalized and admitted to the ICU until May 2021.
  Conclusions. The mathematical model is capable of providing predictions on
the evolution of the COVID-19 sufficiently in advance as to anticipate the
peaks of prevalence and hospital and ICU care demands, and also the appearance
of periods in which the care for non-COVID patients could be intensified.
