  Background: Despite lacking scientific support, vaccine hesitancy is
widespread. While vaccine damage as a scientific fact is statistically highly
uncommon, emerging social and technological forces have converted probable
vaccine damage into an alternative fact. Methods: Using the Eurobarometer 91.2
survey on a statistically representative EU27-UK sample interviewed in March
2019, we documented perceptions of vaccine risks and identified three belief
configurations regarding vaccine effectiveness, safety, and usefulness, through
exploratory cluster analysis. Results: The public beliefs in vaccine risks are
frequent. Approximatively one-tenth of the EU27-UK population consider vaccines
are not rigorously tested before authorization, one-third believe vaccines can
overload or weaken the immune system and that they can cause the disease
against which they protect, and almost one-half believe vaccines can cause
serious side effects. We identified three belief configurations: the skeptical,
the confident, and the trade-off clusters. The skeptical type (approx. 11
percent of EU27-UK respondents) is defined by the belief that vaccines are
rather ineffective, affected by risks of probable vaccine damage, not
well-tested, and useless; the confident type (approx. 59 percent) is defined by
beliefs that vaccines are effective, safe, well-tested, and useful; and the
trade-off type (approx. 29 percent) combines beliefs that vaccines are
effective, well-tested and useful, with beliefs of probable vaccine damage.
Conclusions: Probable vaccine damage presently exists as an alternative fact in
the public imagination, perceptively available for wide segments of the public,
including those who trust medical science.
