  This paper describes a study designed to investigate the current and emergent
impacts of Covid-19 and Brexit on UK horticultural businesses. Various
characteristics of UK horticultural production, notably labour reliance and
import dependence, make it an important sector for policymakers concerned to
understand the effects of these disruptive events as we move from 2020 into
2021. The study design prioritised timeliness, using a rapid survey to gather
information from a relatively small (n = 19) but indicative group of producers.
The main novelty of the results is to suggest that a very substantial majority
of producers either plan to scale back production in 2021 (47%) or have been
unable to make plans for 2021 because of uncertainty (37%). The results also
add to broader evidence that the sector has experienced profound labour supply
challenges, with implications for labour cost and quality. The study discusses
the implications of these insights from producers in terms of productivity and
automation, as well as in terms of broader economic implications. Although
automation is generally recognised as the long-term future for the industry
(89%), it appeared in the study as the second most referred short-term option
(32%) only after changes to labour schemes and policies (58%). Currently,
automation plays a limited role in contributing to the UK's horticultural
workforce shortage due to economic and socio-political uncertainties. The
conclusion highlights policy recommendations and future investigative
intentions, as well as suggesting methodological and other discussion points
for the research community.
