  In this report, we examine the available evidence regarding ICT's current and
projected climate impacts. We examine peer-reviewed studies which estimate
ICT's current share of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to be 1.8-2.8% of
global GHG emissions. Our findings indicate that published estimates all
underestimate the carbon footprint of ICT, possibly by as much as 25%, by
failing to account for all of ICT's supply chains and full lifecycle (i.e.
emissions scopes 1, 2 and fully inclusive 3). Adjusting for truncation of
supply chain pathways, we estimate that ICT's share of emissions could actually
be as high as 2.1-3.9%.
  There are pronounced differences between available projections of ICT's
future emissions. These projections are dependent on underlying assumptions
that are sometimes, but not always, made explicit - and we explore these in the
report. Whatever assumptions analysts take, they agree that ICT will not reduce
its emissions without a major concerted effort involving broad political and
industrial action. We provide three reasons to believe ICT emissions are going
to increase barring a targeted intervention, and we note that in light of
these, it seems risky to assume that ICT will, by default, assist in the
attainment of climate targets.
  Based on our analysis, we find that not all carbon pledges in the ICT sector
are ambitious enough to meet climate targets. We explore the underdevelopment
of mechanisms for enforcing sector-wide compliance, and contend that without a
global carbon constraint, a new regulatory framework is required to keep the
ICT sector's carbon footprint in alignment with the Paris Agreement. We further
contend that a global carbon constraint should be viewed as a significant
opportunity for the ICT sector, as efficiencies within and enabled by ICT would
be even greater enablers of productivity and utility than they are today.
