  Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been critical in the fight against the
COVID-19 pandemic. However, these sanitary measures have been partially lifted
due to socioeconomic factors causing a worrisome rebound of the epidemic in
several countries. In this work, we assess the effectiveness of the mitigation
implemented to constrain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Mexican territory
during 2020. We also investigate to what extent the initial deployment of the
vaccine will help to mitigate the pandemic and reduce the need for social
distancing and other mobility restrictions. Our modeling approach is based on a
simple mechanistic Kermack-McKendrick-type model. To quantify the effect of
NPIs, we perform a monthly Bayesian inference using officially published data.
The results suggest that in the absence of the sanitary measures, the
cumulative number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths would have been
at least twice the official number. Moreover, for low vaccine coverage levels,
relaxing NPIs may dramatically increase the disease burden; therefore, safety
measures are of critical importance at the early stages of vaccination. The
simulations also suggest that it may be more desirable to employ a vaccine with
low efficacy but reach a high coverage than a vaccine with high effectiveness
but low coverage levels. This supports the hypothesis that single doses to more
individuals will be more effective than two doses for every person.
