  The hot-hand theory posits that an athlete who has performed well in the
recent past will perform better in the present. We use multilevel logistic
regression to test this theory for National Hockey League playoff goaltenders,
controlling for a variety of shot-related and game-related characteristics. Our
data consists of 48,431 shots for 93 goaltenders in the 2008-2016 playoffs.
Using a wide range of shot-based and time-based windows to quantify recent save
performance, we consistently find that good recent save performance has a
negative effect on the next-shot save probability, which contradicts the
hot-hand theory.
