Climate change

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[[File:1912 Global Warming.jpg|thumb|right|165px|Climate science: controlling the world since at least 1912.{{efn|Originally published in March 1912 in ''Popular Mechanics''.<ref>[https://archive.org/details/sim_popular-mechanics_1912-03_17_3/page/340/mode/2up?q=furnaces Remarkable Weather of 1911] by Francis Molena (March 1912) ''Popular Mechanics'' 17(3):339-345.</ref>{{rp|341}}}}]]{{globalwarmingnav}}
{{cquote|An atmosphere of that gas [CO<sub>2</sub>] would give to our earth a high temperature.|||Eunice Foote, amateur scientist, in 1856<ref>[https://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/happy-200th-birthday-eunice-foote-hidden-climate-science-pioneer Happy 200<sup>th</sup> birthday to Eunice Foote, hidden climate science pioneer] by Amara Huddleston (July 17, 2019) ''Climate.gov''.</ref><ref>"[https://ia800802.us.archive.org/4/items/mobot31753002152491/mobot31753002152491.pdf Circumstances affecting the heat of the Sun's rays"] by Eunice Foote (1857) ''American Journal of Science and Arts'' 22:382-383. Second Series.</ref>}}
{{cquote|People ask me if I ''believe'' in global warming. I tell them, ‘No, I don’t,’ because belief is [[faith]]; faith is the evidence of things not seen. [[Science]] is [[evidence]] of things seen.|||[[Katharine Hayhoe]], climate scientist and [[evangelical Christian]]<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20131230120649/http://www.physics.utoronto.ca/dept-items/news_repository/missionary-from-toronto-winning-converts-2014-on-climate-change Missionary from Toronto winning converts — on climate change] (Jan 10, 2012) ''Department of Physics, University of Toronto'' (archived from December 30, 2013).</ref>}}

'''Climate change''', also known as anthropogenic (or [[human]]-caused) '''global warming''',{{efn|The term "global warming", while accurate, can be confusing because the overall trend of global warming can cause localized and temporary cooling.<ref>[https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/12/23/climate-change-impact-cold-weather/ Scientists say Arctic warming could be to blame for blasts of extreme cold: Research suggests that climate change is altering the jet stream, pushing frigid air down to southern climes more frequently. But the scientific jury is still out.] by Scott Dance (December 23, 2022 at 11:05 a.m. EST) ''The Washington Post''.</ref>}} is the rising average temperature of [[Earth]]'s atmosphere and oceans and its related effects. Global-warming [[denialism]] refers to claims — mostly funded by the [[fossil fuel|fossil-fuel]] industry passing through [[libertarian]] foundations ('[[Charity|charities]]') to cover their tracks<ref>[https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/20/the-big-business-of-climate-change-denial-.html The money funding climate change denial] by Katie Brigham (Dec 20 20209:00 AM EST; Updated Dec 21 202011:22 AM EST) ''CNBC''.</ref><ref>[https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/dark-money-funds-climate-change-denial-effort/ "Dark Money" Funds Climate Change Denial Effort: A Drexel University study finds that a large slice of donations to organizations that deny global warming are funneled through third-party pass-through organizations that conceal the original funder] by Douglas Fischer (December 23, 2013) ''Scientific American''.</ref><ref>[https://www.iflscience.com/environment/who-funds-the-climate-change-denial-movement/ Who Funds The Climate Change Denial Movement?] by Tom Hale (07 Oct 2019, 18:38) ''IFL Science''.</ref> — that global warming:
* '''A)''' is not happening (denial)
* '''B)''' is not caused by [[human]]s (blame shifting)
* '''C)''' is not significant enough to be a threat (downplaying)
* '''D)''' is not important (ignorance)
* '''E)''' is beneficial ([[Cherry picking|cherrypicking]]) — highlight positive effects (e.g., crops grow faster and could grow crops in the [[Arctic]]) while ignoring strong evidence for negative effects (e.g., crops will have lower nutrient levels)
* '''F)''' is unsolvable (defeatism) ({{IdEst}}, there is nothing we can do about it, so we shouldn't even try)
* '''G)''' will advance the [[second coming]] of Christ (errr…)<ref>[https://www.huffpost.com/entry/climate-change-study_n_3204054 Climate Change Study: Religious Belief In Second Coming Of Christ Could Slow Global Warming Action] by James Gerken (05/03/2013 11:22 am ET) ''Huffington Post''.</ref><ref>[https://religiondispatches.org/does-end-time-belief-really-cause-climate-change-apathy/ Religion Dispatches: Does End Time Belief Really Cause Climate Change Apathy?]</ref>
Global-warming denialism should not be confused with those who accept that anthropogenic global warming is a major threat, but dispute whether or not government regulations put in place to combat it result in a desirable outcome, particularly when they target poor people or are just used to generate funds for governments.

==Anthropogenic climate change==
[[File:Global_Temperature_Anomalies_from_1880_to_2021_in_°C.webm|thumb|center|500px|Global temperature anomalies from 1880 to 2021 (from NASA)]]
{{cquote|Increasing carbon emissions in the atmosphere are having a warming effect.|||{{wpl|ExxonMobil climate change controversy|ExxonMobil|,}}<ref name="exxon position">[https://web.archive.org/web/20190118105110/https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/en/current-issues/climate-policy/climate-perspectives/our-position Our position on climate change] ''ExxonMobil''.</ref> [[Shill gambit|paid shills]] of the warmist consp… <small>oh, wait</small>}}
The phrase “global warming” by itself is often used to refer to the rapid rise in temperatures that the [[Earth]] has experienced since the start of the [[Industrial Revolution]]. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades. As a result, anthropogenic global warming has recently become a major concern for humanity. Such concerns are supported worldwide by the [[Scientific consensus|wide majority]] of climatologists. 

Global warming is an increase in temperature in addition to the natural [[greenhouse effect]]. The greenhouse effect interacts with other planet-wide influences such as the Milankovitch cycles in order to produce long-term climate movements. Many gases contribute to the greenhouse effect, some of the most important being [[water]] vapor, [[methane]] and [[carbon]] dioxide. Black carbon (i.e. soot) is third only to carbon dioxide and methane for its contribution to global warming, but it is the most effective at raising temperatures in the Arctic by reducing the albedo.<ref>[http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/black-carbon-ranks-as-second-biggest-human-cause-of-global-warming/2013/01/15/6d4e542a-5f2d-11e2-9940-6fc488f3fecd_story.html Black [[carbon]] ranks as second-biggest human cause of global warming] by Juliet Eilperin (January 15, 2013) ''Washington Post''.</ref>

In its simplest form, the argument for anthropogenic climate change goes as follows.

#The Earth's atmosphere keeps the planet much warmer than it would be without an atmosphere.<ref>[http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/rotary/greenhouse_effect/01.shtml The Greenhouse Effect] ''Virtual Museum, University of California, San Diego''.</ref>
#The main gases which contribute to this are carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>), methane and water vapor.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20030220000829/http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/gases.html Greenhouse Gases] ''National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climatic Data Center''.</ref> Collectively these are called [[greenhouse gas]]es (GHGs).
#The ability of these gases to act as greenhouse gases can be shown in a laboratory.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20110117213939/https://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/climatechanging/climatescienceinfozone/exploringearthsclimate/1point5/1point5point4.aspx Greenhouse effect: In the laboratory] ''Science Museum London'' (archived from January 17, 2011).</ref>
#The quantity of these greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased sharply since the Industrial Revolution, and their concentration continues to do so.<ref>[http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html Energy and the environment explained: Greenhouse gases and the climate] ''Energy Information Administration''.</ref>
#The concentration of these gases has increased as a consequence of human activity.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20100710043322/http://www.eoearth.org/article/Global_warming Global warming] by Stephen C. Nodvin (March 4, 2010) ''The Encyclopedia of Earth'' (archived from July 10, 2010).</ref>
#The temperature of Earth's atmosphere has been increasing and continues to increase.<ref>[http://web.archive.org/web/20071105205101/http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers] (February 5<sup>th</sup>, 2007) ''Fourth Assessment Report of the 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change '' (archived from November 5, 2007).</ref>
#The increase in global temperature correlates with the increases of greenhouse gases.<ref>[http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=7 Temperature Variations in Past Centuries and the so-called "Hockey Stick"] (December 2004) ''RealClimate''.</ref><ref>[http://www.desmogblog.com/nrc-exonerates-hockey-stick-graph-ending-mann-hunt-by-two-canadian-skeptics NRC Exonerates "Hockey Stick" Graph, Ending "Mann-Hunt" by Two Canadian Skeptics] by Ross Gelbspan (Jun 23, 2006 @ 08:35 PDT) ''DeSmog Blog''.</ref>

Up to this point virtually all [[scientist]]s are in agreement — including those few global warming "[[pseudoskeptic|skeptics]]" who understand the science and the data.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20121021075656/https://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/world/2005-06-12-global-warming-cover_x.htm The debate's over: Globe is warming] by Dan Vergano (Posted 6/12/2005 7:31 PM; Updated 6/13/2005 6:15 PM) ''USA Today'' (archived from October 21, 2012).</ref> Consequently the "skeptics" need to somehow attack the final leg of the argument:

:'''8. The increase in temperature has been caused by the increase in greenhouse gases'''.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20040929121135/http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0409/feature1/ There's no question that the Earth is getting hotter—and fast. The real questions are: How much of the warming is our fault, and are we willing to slow the meltdown by curbing our insatiable appetite for fossil fuels?] by Tim Appenzeller & Dennis R. Dimick (Sept. 2004) ''National Geographic'' (archived from September 29, 2004).</ref><ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20080109064445/http://www.environmentaldefense.org/page.cfm?tagID=1011 Global Warming Myths and Facts] (Posted: 18-Jan-2007; Updated: 03-Jan-2008) ''Environmental Defense Fund'' (archived from January 9, 2008).</ref>

The [[logic]]al consequence of this conclusion is that we should reduce the quantity of greenhouse gases which we pump into the atmosphere so as to reduce global warming.

Note that the statement that ''The increase in global temperature correlates with the increases of greenhouse gases'' is only true on a very broad timescale: GHGs have increased roughly exponentially but the temperature signal is far noisier, and displays almost no correlation with GHG changes on an annual basis, as expected. This is due to a variety of factors, from intrinsic noise in the climate system to the existence of other important forcing factors (most notably [[ozone layer|sulphate aerosols]] and global dimming, which are cooling factors).

Also note that while water vapour is correctly listed as a GHG, the human emissions of water vapor are not important in forcing climate change; water vapour is best thought of as a response to temperature change rather than a cause, because its atmospheric lifetime is very short (about 10 days), unlike other gases such as CO<sub>2</sub>.<ref>[http://mustelid.blogspot.com/2005/01/water-vapour-is-not-dominant.html Water vapour is not the dominant greenhouse gas] by William M. Connolley (2005-01-20) ''Stoat''.</ref>

===What's the limit?===
While projections of the potential (maximum) temperature rise resulting from a doubling of CO<sub>2</sub> have ranged from 2°C to 6°C, there's broad agreement that anything above 2°C will mean we are beyond recovery. The International Energy Agency suggests that the window to prevent this from occurring will close by 2020,<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20140729030212/http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2013/IEAGMFeventBrussels13jun13invitation.pdf Limiting Global Warming to 2°C: Can Europe and the United States Keep the Climate Window Open?] (June 13, 2013) ''German Marshall Fund of the United States'' (archived from July 29, 2014).</ref> a view shared by the OECD.<ref>[http://www.oecd.org/env/the-climate-challenge-achieving-zero-emissions.htm The climate challenge: Achieving zero emissions] (9 October 2013) ''OECD''.</ref> So let's get cracking.

CO<sub>2</sub> emissions have been stabilizing but methane emissions have risen dramatically during the past ten years for unknown reasons. This undermines efforts to combat global warming and there is a risk of an uncontrollable runaway greenhouse effect.<ref>[https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/dec/12/rapid-rise-methane-emissions-10-years-surprises-scientists Rapid rise in methane emissions in 10 years surprises scientists: Methane warms planet 20 times as much as similar CO<sub>2</sub> volumes but lack of monitoring means scientists can’t be sure of sources] by Fiona Harvey (12 Dec 2016 08.29 EST) ''The Guardian''.</ref>

===Scientific consensus===
[[File:Radiative-forcings.svg|thumb|Various components of climate change. The error bars, particularly on the negative components, are currently the focus of much climate research in order to improve predictive climate models. Denialists, who can't or don't want to understand graphs, probably won't understand this graph.]]
A [[scientific consensus]] is reached when the vast majority of the scientists involved in a discipline broadly agree on the interpretation of the [[evidence]] pertaining to a specific scientific question. When this occurs the case can be considered to have been demonstrated and the [[burden of proof]] then falls on those who would dispute the consensus. The following national and international organizations are part of the consensus that global warming is a real phenomenon for which humans are responsible:<ref>[https://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus-intermediate.htm The 97% consensus on global warming] ''Skeptical Science''.</ref>

*National Academy of Sciences (NAS)
*National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ([[NOAA]])
*[[NASA]]'s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS)
*Environmental Protection Agency ([[EPA]])
*Royal Society (UK)
*[[Canada|Canadian]] Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS)
*[[UN]]'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
*And ''many'' more.

Though some have taken non-committal stances, the vast majority of scientific bodies are convinced by the [[evidence]].{{efn|For a thorough run-down, see the treatment of the scientific consensus on {{wpl|Scientific opinion on climate change#Statements by scientific organizations of national or international standing|Wikipedia|.}}}} In addition, those pinko tree-huggers at the [[Pentagon]] now rank global warming as a "destabilizing force" (damn enviro-weenies).<ref>[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/jan/31/pentagon-ranks-global-warming-destabilising-force Pentagon to rank global warming as a destabilizing force: US defence review says military planners should factor climate change into long-term strategy] by Suzanne Goldenberg (31 Jan 2010 11.48 EST) ''The Guardian''.</ref><ref>[https://gizmodo.com/the-pentagon-wants-to-tackle-climate-change-but-cong-1581721471 The Pentagon Wants to Tackle Climate Change — But Congress Forbids It] by Mark Strauss (5/28/14 1:35PM) ''Gizmodo''.</ref>

Despite the clarity of the facts, behavioral/social science tells us that simply shoving global warming related scientific data into their face simply solidifies their existing beliefs.<ref>[https://theconversation.com/inoculating-against-science-denial-40465 Inoculating Against Science Denial: Exposing people to weak forms of anti-science arguments can help them respond when they are hit by the real thing.] (April 26, 2015 3.29pm EDT) ''The Conversation''.</ref> There's even a college offering free online classes that teaches you both the science of what is going on and how to fight denialism properly.<ref>[http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/apr/21/university-offering-free-online-course-to-demolish-climate-denial University offering free online course to demolish climate denial: The University of Queensland’s course examines the science of climate science denial] by Dana Nuccitelli (21 Apr 2015 09.59 EDT) ''The Guardian''.</ref>

====National or international scientific bodies that ''reject'' anthropogenic global warming====
[[File:Tumbleweed.gif]]

===Effects===
The effects of global warming will be many, varied, and almost wholly negative.<ref>[https://skepticalscience.com/harmful-impacts-climate-change-outweigh-any-benefits.html The harmful impacts of climate change outweigh any benefits] by Sophia Whitaker (18<sup>th</sup> November 2020) ''Skeptical Science''.</ref> Pretending global warming is not happening will not make it go away.{{fact|joke}} In fact, pretending it is not happening will make it worse, because it means we won't do anything to stop it. 

====Negative effects====
[[File:Xkcd4.5Degrees.png|300px|right|thumb|One can perhaps only imagine...]]
{{cquote|The danger of global warming is as yet unseen, but real enough for us to make changes and sacrifices, so that we do not live at the expense of future generations. Our ability to come together to stop or limit damage to the world's environment will be perhaps the greatest test of how far we can act as a world community. No one should underestimate the imagination that will be required, nor the scientific effort, nor the unprecedented co-operation we shall have to show. We shall need statesmanship of a rare order.|||[[Margaret Thatcher]], [[stopped clock|1990]]<ref>[http://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/108237 Speech at 2nd World Climate Conference] by Margaret Thatcher (1990 Nov 6) ''Margaret Thatcher Foundation''.</ref>}}

[[File:IceSheets.png|right|300px|thumb| Data adapted from "The Laurentide and Innuitian ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum" by A. S. Dyke et. al.,<ref>[https://notendur.hi.is//~oi/AG-326%202006%20readings/Canadian%20Arctic/Dyke_QSR2002.pdf The Laurentide and Innuitian ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum] by A. S. Dyke et. al. (2002) ''Quaternary Science Reviews'' 21:9–31.</ref> which was way better than the sequels 'The Laurentide and Innuitian ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum: The Meltdown' and 'The Laurentide and Innuitian ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum: Continental Drift'.]]

*'''A rise in sea level:''' The most conservative prediction of sea level rise presently predicted is 9–88&nbsp;cm (3.5–34.6&nbsp;inches). This small rise would be enough cause significant disruption to coastal communities.<ref name="IPCC6">[6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas] by Robert J. Nicholls et al. (2007) '' Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change''. Pages 315-356.</ref> Some places, such as [[Kiribati]], are already feeling these effects.<ref>[https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/three-islands-disappeared-past-year-climate-change-blame-ncna1015316 Three islands disappeared in the past year. Is climate change to blame?] by Denise Chow (June 9, 2019) ''NBC News''.</ref>
:*There is a possibility, however, that the whole [[Greenland]] ice sheet would melt leading to a global rise of 7 m (23&nbsp;ft). There is even a possibility that the West [[Antarctic]] ice sheet could melt raising sea levels by a further six meters (20&nbsp;feet). Although the rest of the Antarctic is considered to be stable, if the entire Antarctic were to melt, this would raise sea levels by 62 meters (203&nbsp;feet).<ref>[http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/campaigns/climate-change/impacts/sea_level_rise/ Sea levels are rising because of climate change] (4 July, 2012) ''Greenpeace'' (archived from 3:36:18 Apr 08, 2020).</ref> Although this isn't enough to turn the [[Earth]] into ''Waterworld'', it's more than enough of a rise to render every major coastal city on the planet uninhabitable. Want a visualization? Say goodbye to Miami, [[NYC]], New Orleans, Venice, Tokyo, Mumbai, and Shanghai.<ref>[https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/metadata/publications/ranking-of-the-worlds-cities-to-coastal-flooding/11240357 Ranking of The World's Cities Most Exposed to Coastal Flooding Today and in the Future: Executive Summary] by R. J. Nicholls et al. (2007) ''OECD''. Environment Working Paper No. 1.</ref>
:*In addition to the rises in sea level caused by melting glaciers, sea level would also rise as a consequence of the thermal expansion of the warmer water.

*'''More active weather systems:''' More energy in the atmosphere will lead to more active weather systems, with more frequent and more violent storms. More severe weather events such as storms, floods, heatwaves and hurricanes will be the result.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20040816220530/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/weatherguide/climatechange.html Climate change] ''Met Office (UK)'' (archived from August 16, 2004).</ref> Hurricanes will become more severe and long-lived as the Earth warms, specifically due to the warming of the [[ocean]]s. It is warm sea surface temperatures above 26 °C that are required for hurricanes to form, and to be able to sustain themselves because the heat that fuels hurricanes is from the latent heat of condensation.

*'''Disturbed rainfall patterns:''' Rainfall patterns will be significantly disrupted with floods in some places and [[World food shortage|droughts]] in others. Regions closest to the equator (central [[Africa]], [[Latin America]], [[India]], [[Southeast Asia]], etc.) are more likely to face extreme vulnerability.<ref>[http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2013/10/30/31-global-economic-output-forecast-face-high-or-extreme-climate-change-risks-2025-maplecroft-risk-atlas/#.Unf-Ly0aDgI.twitter 31% of global economic output forecast to face climate change risks by 2025] (2014) ''Climate Change and Environmental Risk Atlas, Maplecroft''.</ref>
:Warmer temperatures also imply greater need of water for plant growth, so higher temperatures without increases in rainfall may themselves tip places like Athens, Bucharest, Budapest, and Kiev into drier zones less suited for agriculture.

*'''Acidification of the oceans:''' The ocean has a limited capacity to dissolve [[carbon]] dioxide before it ceases to absorb any more (which would thus lead to further warming). The dissolved CO<sub>2</sub> can react with the water forming carbonic acid and H<sup>+</sup> ions, causing it to become more acidic (lower pH). This would cause great damage to [[fish]] stocks. It also reduces the amount of carbonate dissolved in the water, which shellfish depend on for their shells. The acidity (pH) of the ocean is currently ~8.0, slightly alkaline, and the earliest signs of increasing acidity (and temperature) is coral bleaching, where the photosynthetic mutualists in the coral die leading to the collapse of the coral reefs which are often described as the 'rainforests of the sea' due to the level of biodiversity.

*'''Tipping points/feedback loops:''' There are many possible tipping points and feedback loops. For instance, if global warming causes the northern permafrost to melt this will release vast amounts of [[methane]] which will make the problem ''much'' worse. It is thought that a similar release of frozen methane hydrate from arctic ocean floors resulted in a runaway greenhouse effect at the end of the [[Permian]] period, which may have been a leading cause of the Permian [[mass extinction]].

*'''Spread of tropical diseases:''' As northern latitudes become warmer previously-rare tropical [[disease]]s will gain a foothold.<ref name="IPCC8">[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ar4_wg2_full_report.pdf Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability] Working Group II Contributions to the Fourth Assessment Report (2007) ''Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change''.</ref>{{rp|393}} More specifically, altitudes that were previously too cool to sustain disease ''vectors''<ref group=note> See [https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/vector-borne-diseases WHO: Vector Borne Diseases] for more information on disease vectors.</ref> will become more hospitable. "Global warming will ''certainly'' affect [both] the ''abundance'' and ''distribution'' of disease vectors", such as rats and mosquitoes, and also the parasites they carry—these are ''indirect'' impacts on natural ecosystems.<ref>Khasnis, A. A., & Nettleman, M. D. (2005). Global warming and infectious disease. Archives of medical research, 36(6), see halfway into abstract and p. 690).[https://doi.org/10.1016/j.arcmed.2005.03.041 DOI]</ref> Indirect impacts, in general, are harder to predict, and may entail the shifting of "the seasonal occurrence [i.e. changes in life-cycle patterns] of many infectious diseases, [causing] them to spread [in less predictable ways]" (ibid). Furthermore, an increase in famines and floods due to climate change, will result in ideal conditions for "non-vector-borne diseases—such as ''salmonellosis'', ''cholera'', and ''giardiasis''— all of which can thrive under these circumstances (691 ibid). The World Health Organization has identified more than 30 new or resurgent diseases in the last three decades, the sort of explosion some experts say has not happened since the [[Industrial Revolution]] brought masses of people together in cities. Another report made by WHO in 2000 found that warming had caused [[malaria]] to spread from three districts in western [[Kenya]] to 13 and led to [[epidemic]]s of the disease in Rwanda and Tanzania.<ref>[http://www.who.int/bulletin/archives/78(9)1136.pdf Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a regional analysis] by Andrew K. Githeko et al. (2000) Bulletin of the World Health Organization'' 78(9):1136-1147.</ref> However, the relationship may not always be so simple &mdash; one study demonstrated that warmer temperatures may increase the number of malarial [[parasite]]s but also decrease the rate at which they become infectious.<ref>[http://www.nature.com/news/global-warming-wilts-malaria-1.9695 Global Warming Wilts Malaria] by Zoe Corbyn (21 December 2011) ''Nature News''.</ref> In [[Sweden]], cases of tick-borne encephalitis have risen in direct correlation to warmer winters. Asian tiger mosquitoes, the type that carry dengue fever, have been reported recently as far north as the [[Netherlands]]. Cholera, which thrives in warmer water, appeared in the newly warmed waters of [[South America]] in 1991 for the first time in the 20<sup>th</sup> century. "It swept from Peru across the continent and into [[Mexico]], killing more than 10,000 people." Once confined to land near the equator, West Nile Virus is now found as far north as [[Canada]]. Seven years ago, West Nile virus had never been seen in [[North America]]; today, it has "infected more than 21,000 people in the [[United States]] and Canada and killed more than 800."<ref>[http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/04/AR2006050401931.html Climate Change Drives Disease To New Territory] by Doug Struck (May 5, 2006) ''The Washington Post''.</ref> This also doesn't affect just humans. Introduced mosquitoes have also spread their wrath onto vulnerable and highly endangered native birds in Hawaii, which climate change allows those little pieces of disease to travel to higher elevations.<ref>"Introduced Avian Diseases, Climate Change, and the Future of HawaiianHoneycreepers" by Carter T. Atkinson & Dennis A. LaPointe (2009) ''Journal of Avian Medicine and Surgery'' 23(1):53-63. doi:10.1647/2008-059.1.</ref>
:*Cold weather no longer kills ticks that carry [[Lyme disease]]. Ticks recently began spreading along the coastlines of [[Scandinavia]], which formerly was too cold for them to survive. Cases of Lyme disease in the area have doubled since the late 1990s.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20071027102934/http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17861866/ Changed climate, changed species] (12:50 a.m. ET April 1, 2007) ''Associated Press'' via ''MSNBC'' (archived from October 27, 2007).</ref>
*'''Public health''': The effects of global warming depend heavily on the ability of public health services to adapt. Both human migration and economic stresses caused by climate change, could "threaten human settlement and seriously overwhelm the public health infrastructure."<ref>Khasnis, A. A., & Nettleman, M. D. (2005). Global warming and infectious disease. Archives of medical research, 36(6), p. 690.</ref> "Renewed understanding of the [connections] between public health and ''global life-support'' is emerging in the literature."<ref>The concept of environmental sustainability by Robert Goodland (1995) ''Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics'' 26(1):1-24. doi:10.1146/annurev.es.26.110195.000245.</ref>{{efn|According to the ''New Scientist'', the earth has nine life-support systems: (1) Oceans: global average aragonite saturation ratio, (2) Stratospheric Ozone concentration, (3) fresh water, (4) biodiversity: total no. of species; (5) nitrogen and phosphorus cycles, (6) land use: global use of "ice free" land, (7) Climate Change: atmospheric C0<sub>2</sub> concentration, (8) Aerosol loading, and lastly (9) Chemical pollution e.g. effects of plastics on male fertility.<ref>[https://www.newscientist.com/round-up/ocean-to-ozone-earths-nine-life-support-systems/ Earth's nine life support systems] by Fred Pearce (24 February 2010) ''NewScientist''.</ref>}}
*'''Disruption of ocean currents:''' The disruption of ocean currents could shut down the Gulf Stream with unpredictable consequences. Melting of the ice sheets could result in a weakening of the {{wpl|thermohaline circulation}} as the Arctic and Antarctic Ocean's warm, decreasing the temperature difference and thus flow of heat as it's redistributed from the equatorial regions to the high latitudes. It is believed that the collapse of the ocean currents may lead to extreme levels of ocean anoxia, because the currents are essential for carrying dissolved oxygen below 500 meters of depth. This may possibly mean wiping out the overwhelming majority of multi-cellular ocean life.
[[File:Polar-bear-MAIN2.jpg|right|300px|thumb|{{wpl|Habitat destruction||.}} Many arctic animals rely on sea ice, which has been disappearing in a warming Arctic.]]
*'''Habitat loss/change faster than animals can adapt:''' Temperature zones will move north and south too quickly for animals to follow or adapt to new habitats. The most extreme case is that of [[arctic]] habitats which will leave animals such as [[endangered species|polar bears]] with no place to go. In 2007 [[Indonesia]]'s environment minister has announced that scientific studies estimate about 2,000 of the country's lush tropical islands could disappear by 2030.<ref>[http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/GlobalWarming/Story?id=2847562&page=1 One Gigantic Wild Card In Global Warming] by Bill Blakemore (May 9, 2007, 10:10 AM) ''ABC News''.</ref> Deserts have already started increase in size toward higher latitudes, and are projected to increase in size by 10%-30% by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century.<ref>[http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~zeng/papers/Zeng09_DesertExpansion.pdf Expansion of the world’s deserts due to vegetation-albedo feedback under global warming] by Ning Zeng & Jinho Yoon (2009) ''Geophysical Research Letters'' 36:L17401. doi:1029/2009GL039699.</ref>

*'''Climate exodus:''' Okay hard-right, you can try suppressing [[immigration]] or deny the existence of climate change but you can't have both. One major issue is the massive flood of migrants that will happen in coming decades as a result of increasing uninhabitability. It will likely spread like a wave, first affecting nations near the equator and slowly moving further away. It will start with poorer countries in the region, but eventually, wealthier countries in the region will collapse due to either the migrant crisis or temperatures getting too hot for technology to balance it out anymore. As the crisis spreads, extremism will explode as opinions on what to do contradict each other. Some major powers may go crazy and begin performing border massacres and invasions, in an attempt to stop the wave of migrants and impending economic collapse as a result of the collapse of cheap labor and the potential rise of autarky. Internal migration will likely become an issue in some nations as parts such as the American Southwest begin to lose inhabitability to desertification. Hopefully, it'll stop around this point, but it may keep going as a trend moves humanity further and further from the equator. Extremist militias would likely dominate the depopulated former nations. At this rate, the trend will likely start with South and Southeast Asia and central Africa.

*'''Loss of mountain glaciers:''' Mountain glaciers act as natural reservoirs, releasing winter [[snow]] as meltwater during the summer. Global warming will disrupt this system in two ways:
:#Global warming will melt the existing glaciers.<ref>[http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/mar/16/glaciers.climatechange1 Glaciers melting faster] by Juliette Jowit & Robin McKie (16 Mar 2008 05.11 EDT) ''The Guardian''.</ref>
:#More rain will fall instead of snow which will prevent the reformation of the glaciers. The result of this will be more floods when it rains and droughts when it does not.<ref>[https://www.livescience.com/496-irony-global-warming-rain-water.html The Irony of Global Warming: More Rain, Less Water] by Robert Roy Britt (November 16, 2005) ''Live Science''.</ref>
[[File:HansIsland.png|thumb|right|Hans Island as seen from the air]]
*'''Social effects:''' Global warming and the retreat of [[Arctic]] ice is already causing social repercussions for various nations. A good example of this is the battle for control of Hans Island. Hans Island is a barren, uninhabited chunk of rock fully two square kilometres in surface area that is bisected by the dividing line between the respective territories of Greenland and Canada.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20140331135346/http://www.canadiangeographic.ca/hansIsland/background.asp Whose Hans? A border dispute escalates between Denmark and Canada over a tiny kidney-shaped island a tht top of the world] by Kenn Harper (2005) ''Canadian Geographic'' (archived from March 31, 2014).</ref> In the past the sovereignty of this insignificant island was undisputed since it was economically worthless, but with summer pack ice ever retreating it may shortly be the case that control of Hans Island grants access to huge, untapped hydrocarbon deposits as well as control of shipping through the Nares Strait.
:There has been considerable diplomatic tension between Canada and [[Denmark]] (who represent the interests of Greenland in all international affairs) over the sovereignty of the island. Both nations have made expeditions to the island to plant their respective flags, and assert their claim to the island. Like all good controversial issues, the battle for Hans Island has spawned a large number of parody sites on the [[Internet]].<ref>[http://www.freehansisland.com/ Free Hans Island] (Parody site).</ref><ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20100413192815/http://www.radiofreehansisland.com/ Radio Free Hans Island] (Parody site). Archived from April 13, 2010.</ref>
*'''Agricultural effects:''' High temperatures can damage pollen grains and prevent them from successfully fertilizing plants and creating seeds, as well as adversely affect pollinator populations.<Ref>[https://e360.yale.edu/features/pollen-and-heat-a-looming-challenge-for-global-agriculture Pollen and Heat: A Looming Challenge for Global Agriculture] by Carolyn Beans (June 14, 2022) ''Yale Environment 360'' </ref> Drought could have major influence on agriculture<ref>[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-35566151 21<sup>st</sup> Century US 'dustbowl' risk assessed] by Jonathan Amos (13 February 2016) ''BBC News''.</ref> as could flooding or massive change in temperature. This could have major economic impact in developed countries and threaten food supplies in poor nations. Effects on agriculture can be positive or negative but overall outcomes of agricultural activity become less predictable.<ref>[http://www.ecifm.rdg.ac.uk/climate_change.htm Climate Change & Agriculture] ''Environmental Challenges in Farm Management, The University of Reading''.</ref>
*'''And,''' if you've been sleeping through this list, serious damage to [[coffee]], [[tea]] and chocolate stocks.<ref>[http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26123944 Tea industry's future depends on corporate collaboration] by Richard Anderson (14 February 2014) ''BBC News''.</ref><ref>[http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-could-melt-chocolate-production/ Climate Change Could Melt Chocolate Production: A new study shows that cocoa will suffer under climate change] by Tiffany Stecker (October 3, 2011) ''Scientific American''.</ref>

Not all of these consequences are certain, and some may be mitigated. For example, whilst global warming might tend to promote the spread of tropical diseases, advances in [[medicine]] or control measures ([[insect]] spraying, swamp draining) could well counteract this, as has already happened during the industrial era for a number of previously common diseases.

Equally though, there will probably be many unanticipated additional — probably negative — consequences.

If climate change doesn't sound so bad, consider that we've spent the past few hundred years building cities in places that don't flood, farms in places with enough water, and ice hotels in places with, well, ice. There is an ''awful'' lot of [[money]] and human endeavor relying on the weather staying just the way it is.

====Positive effects====
{{main|Broken window fallacy}}
{{cquote|Global warming, like globalization, is good for the economy, and therefore humanity:
*Rising water levels will force people to move, build new houses and spend more.
*The struggling airline industry will be boosted by the increased amount of travel as people flee disaster zones.
*Consumer spending will rise as there’s less concern about long-term savings.
*Inflation will be curbed as excess US dollars are burned in wild fires.|||Chairman of the [[Federal Reserve]], [[Ben Bernanke]] ([[File:Sarcasm.gif]])<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20101223170613/http://www.newsgroper.com/ben-bernanke/2007/11/15/global-warming-good-for-economy-al-gore-bad Global warming good for economy; Al Gore bad] by Ben Bernanke (11/15/2007 4:25 PM) '"Ben Bernanke's Blog (archived from December 23, 2010).</ref>}}

It has been hypothesized that the added heat and CO<sub>2</sub> from global warming would increase plant growth, thus creating a "greener" Earth. However, a 17-year experiment on California flowers and grasslands found that plants growing with extra heat or CO<sub>2</sub> did not grow more, did not remove pollution and did not store more of it in the soil. Only extra nitrogen made plants greener.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20160907145440/http://www.sci-tech-today.com/news/Climate-Test--Future-Not-Very-Green/story.xhtml?story_id=012000O8D32C Future Climate Change Field Test Doesn't Make Earth Greener] by Seth Borenstein (September, 6, 2016) ''Sci-Tech Today'' (archived from September 7, 2016).</ref> It has also been found that the increased plant growth will not likely be sustained, and that the increased CO<sub>2</sub> also causes decreases in some important nutrients, such as selenium and zinc.<ref>[https://www.sciencenews.org/article/changing-climate-could-worsen-foods-nutrition?mode=magazine&context=192874&tgt=nr Changing climate could worsen foods’ nutrition: Evidence builds for lessening of certain micronutrients, protein in plants] by Susan Milius (3:07pm, March 13, 2017) ''Science News''.</ref>

Global average temperatures were higher during the [[Jurassic]] period than they are today. This does not, unfortunately, mean that global warming will bring back the extinct [[dinosaur]]s. The [[Bird|currently living ones]] such as chickens, on the other hand, may evolve to fill the new niches. So if you want a world where your puny children are mere morsels for the almighty Cockasaurus Rex, trade in that SUV for a Hummer.

There are some positive impacts that deniers like to use such as longer growing seasons in Canada and northern Europe, but they never bring up the fact that even really bad things have some positives. What's important is not really if there are any positives, but rather, if the positives outweigh the negatives. When economists, scientists, and engineers perform cost-benefit analysis of global warming, the negatives outweigh the positives 25 to 1. When you bring this fact up with deniers, they quickly change the subject.<ref>[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0301421595901584 A cost-benefit analysis of slowing climate change] by David Maddison (1995) ''Energy Policy'' 23(4–5):337-346. doi:10.1016/0301-4215(95)90158-4.</ref>

====Global warming wager====
The "global warming wager" is an application of the [[precautionary principle]] to the anthropogenic theory of global warming (some have drawn with [[Pascal's wager]]<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20060820013028/http://www.henrythornton.com/article.asp?article_id=4079 Global Warming: Pascal's Wager] by PD Jonson (01/06/2006) ''Henry Thornton'' (archived from August 20, 2006).</ref>). That is, even if there is uncertainty that global warming is happening, we have to prepare for the worst case scenario anyway:

{{cquote|Businessweek columnists Jack & Suzy Welch say they believe that, whether the impact of global warming ends up being mild or severe, companies have to adopt a 'here it comes' mind-set and mount a well-reasoned plan. Any other response would be bad [[business]].<ref>[http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2007-02-25/the-global-warming-wager The Global Warming Wager: Is the planet headed for an apocalypse? Hard to tell. But heeding Pascal is the best bet] by Jack and Suzy Welch (February 26, 2007, 5:00 AM UTC) ''Bloomberg Businessweek''</ref>}}

This argument is unlikely to advance a conversation as Pascal's wager has several known [[logic]]al issues that render it useless as a decision-making tool in the face of uncertainty. However, in this case, the impact of human-generated [[pollution]] on the [[Earth]]'s temperature has been and is being directly observed. Arguments against the likelihood of negative consequences can be met directly with evidence.

===Solutions===
These options are not necessarily mutually exclusive, but some options are likely to be less costly or more effective than others. 

====Reducing or stopping human CO<sub>2</sub> output====
[[File:CO2 per kWh for different sources.png|thumb|350px|Greenhouse gas emissions per unit of energy produced, for different types of power plants.]]
Anyone who, even after the occurrence of extreme weather events that seem to intensify yearly, does not see the validity of decades of scientific documentation that catalogues the existence of global warming, is a lost cause. Simply put, [[time]] is of the essence. Instead of spending resources trying to convince people (anyone who still doesn't get it will ''never'' get it) that global warming is in fact real, the people in this world who have a clue should put the focus on action and moving forward by championing the solutions to this crisis that threatens all of humanity. These solutions involve fostering the use of hybrid/electric vehicles, and replacing fossil fuels with [[Renewable energy|wind power, solar power]], [[nuclear power]], and perhaps hydro power.<ref>[http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/our-energy-choices/renewable-energy/environmental-impacts-hydroelectric-power.html#bf-toc-2 Environmental Impacts of Hydroelectric Power] (Mar 5, 2013) ''Union of Concerned Scientists''. "Run-of-the-river" and plants built in semi-arid regions are ok, but plants built in "tropical areas or temperate peatlands" do more harm than good.</ref> (Fun fact: Solar power's contribution to global warming is 2-4 times worse than nuclear, per kWh.)<ref name="IPCC 2014 Annex III">[https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_annex-iii.pdf#page=7 Annex III: Technology-specific Cost and Performance Parameters] by Steffen Schlömer et al. (2014) IPCC Working Group III – Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change''. Cambridge University Press.</ref>{{rp|1335}}

One form of {{wpl|Enhanced Oil Recovery}} consists in injecting CO<sub>2</sub> into reservoirs in order to extract more oil. Ongoing experiments aim at obtaining the CO<sub>2</sub> from [[clean coal]] plants equipped with {{wpl|carbon capture}} technology.<ref>[http://www.npr.org/2017/03/29/521926674/climate-friendly-coal-technology-works-but-is-proving-difficult-to-scale-up Climate-Friendly Coal Technology Works But Is Proving Difficult To Scale Up] by Jeff Brady (March 29, 2017) ''NPR''.</ref> Although the technology itself seems to work,<ref>[https://www.energy.gov/fe/articles/petra-nova-world-s-largest-post-combustion-carbon-capture-project-begins-commercial Petra Nova, World’s Largest Post-Combustion Carbon-Capture Project, Begins Commercial Operation] (January 11, 2017) ''Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, United States Department of Energy''.</ref><ref>[http://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2017/march/making-carbon-capture-and-storage-more-attractive.html Making carbon capture and storage more attractive] (30 March 2017) ''International Energy Agency''.</ref> it is not clear how sequestering coal CO<sub>2</sub> to help produce more oil will affect atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>.

====Scrubbing atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>====
Air capture technology to collect CO<sub>2</sub> is routinely used in spacecraft and submarines. However, it requires energy to operate and a 2011 study estimated that processing the whole atmosphere would not be cost-effective. One of the authors noted that planting vegetation is more feasible but would require a significant amount of land.<ref name="scrubbing too costly">[https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scrubbing-carbon-dioxide-air-too-expensive/ Scrubbing Carbon Dioxide From Air May Prove Too Costly: Efforts to remove CO<sub>2</sub> directly from the air are likely to prove too expensive to be practical] by Umair Irfan (December 13, 2011) ''Scientific American''.</ref> However, this shouldn't discourage efforts to help reduce the effects of emissions, and in theory could act as a supplement to other methods of CO<sub>2</sub> scrubbing. One good example of plants that consume plenty of CO<sub>2</sub> are pine trees used in farming. Though they tend to use the nutrients in the ground, in theory they can be replenished from biosolids (refined animal feces).<ref>{{wpa|Tree farm#CO2 and forest health|Tree farm#CO<sub>2</sub> and forest health}}</ref> A problem with plants is what to do with all the dead plant matter. Decomposing plants release methane (CH<sub>4</sub>), an even worse greenhouse gas than CO<sub>2</sub>, and there is simply not enough storage on Earth for all the wood forests of the needed magnitude that we'd need. However, we could bury the resulting biomass underground, in effect recreating the origin of the fossil fuels that got us into this mess in the first place.

====Living with it====
Climate change is expected to affect farming practices by requiring a shift in corn planting windows. In order to address this, Illinois scientists have suggested various cropping strategies for flexible risk management: planting early so that droughts don't affect harvests, or creating cropping systems that can keep the soil moist through droughts to complement drought-resistant cultivars.<ref name="Illinois corn cropping strategies">[https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-03/uoic-fbr032717.php Farming becoming riskier under climate change] (27-Mar-2017) ''EurekAlert! American Association for the Advancement of Science''. Illinois scientists suggest cropping strategies to help farmers mitigate risks related to the impact of climate change on planting windows.</ref>

====Reforestation====
[[File:Manaus - State of Amazonas, Brazil - panoramio (20).jpg|thumb|right|325px|Early results of a reforestation effort in Brazil.]]
Deforestation is the second-largest contributor to global warming.<ref>[https://www.che-project.eu/news/main-sources-carbon-dioxide-emissions Main sources of carbon dioxide emissions] (December 13, 2017) ''CO<sub>2</sub> Human Emissions''.</ref> It has long been known that trees are an effective carbon sink. The greatest cause of deforestation is agricultural expansion; other causes include logging and forest fires. Each year, 15 billion trees are lost.<ref>[https://www.nature.com/news/global-count-reaches-3-trillion-trees-1.18287 Global forest survey finds trillions of trees] by Rachel Ehrenberg (2015) ''Nature'' doi:10.1038/nature.2015.18287.</ref> Expanding agriculture is estimated to be responsible for 80% of worldwide deforestation.<ref>[https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/09/120925091608.htm Agriculture is the direct driver for worldwide deforestation] (September 25, 2012) ''ScienceDaily''.</ref> It is a result of our increasing population and changing diets. Fires are a major cause of deforestation and forest degradation. While they do occur in nature, the number of fires has increased as a result of global warming. Fires are sometimes used as a means of clearing forests for agriculture.<ref>[https://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/deforestation-and-forest-degradation Deforestation and Forest Degradation] ''World Wildlife Fund''.</ref>

In 2019, an analysis was published on the potential carbon capture and cost effectiveness from reforestation.<ref name=bastin>[https://science.sciencemag.org/content/365/6448/76 The global tree restoration potential] by Jean-Francois Bastin et al. (2019) ''Science'' 365(6448):76-79. doi:10.1126/science.aax0848.</ref><ref name=mcgrath>[https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48870920 Climate change: Trees 'most effective solution' for warming] by Matt McGrath (July 4, 2019) ''BBC''.</ref> The study estimated that there is a potential for 900 million hectares in the world that could be reforested, that would eventually result in the storage of 205 gigatonnes of carbon,<ref name=bastin/> about "two-thirds of extra carbon from human activities put into the atmosphere since the industrial revolution."<ref name=mcgrath/> The authors of the study estimated that it was the most cost effective strategy available for reducing atmospheric carbon, but that it could not solve global warming without reductions in global carbon emissions.<ref name=mcgrath/> The paper's results are not without critics in the science community.<ref name=mcgrath/>

Reforestation might do good, but only if done early enough. A Wikipedia article on climate change suggests that much of Europe stands to become more arid, with large parts of Europe from Hungary and Ukraine to Bulgaria going from humid climates friendly to trees to steppe climates hostile to trees. Much the same happens in South Australia and Victoria states of Australia.

====Extreme measures====
[[File:Wynes Nicholas CO2 emissions savings.svg|thumb|200px|right|Having one less child is twenty times more effective at reducing carbon emissions than living car free.]]
In case of the above solutions not being followed through to their highest potential, there is the possibility of using [[geo-engineering]] to combat climate change. Yes people, [[chemtrails]]! 

This involves trying to force climate change back in the opposite direction intentionally, or with what has been described as terraforming Earth. Among these options is lacing the atmosphere with particulate matter in order to seed clouds, [[Carbon sequestering|artificial carbon sequestration technology]] to actively remove the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere at a rate faster than natural sinks such as [[photosynthesis]] and ocean carbonates, and constructing [[Sun]] screens in orbit. The pessimistic perspective is that these measures carry additional risks as we've already severely damaged the environment accidentally because we didn't understand it well enough, and any more messing about is liable to make things far worse and far sooner. If that becomes the case, we may have little choice but to attempt more extraordinary measures (i.e. rapid colonization of space<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20170209083508/http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/hqlibrary/pathfinders/colony.htm Space Colonization] ''NASA'' (archived from February 9, 2017).</ref>).

====Even more extreme measures====
Even more extreme than "extreme measures" are measures which seek to remove humans from the formula altogether, in order to bring anthropogenic carbon emissions to an end. These generally seek to strongly decrease the birth rate, or even eliminate humans from the planet, in order to help reduce carbon emissions and pollution. Movements desiring voluntary human extinction include the [[Voluntary Human Extinction Movement]].

==Denial tactics==
{{Cquote|If [discussing [[renewable energy]] with conservatives] you deliver the message of energy freedom, energy choice, competition, national security, innovation, all of a sudden, you will have a receptive audience and they will listen to you. If you lead off with climate change, they’re not going to pay a bit of attention to anything else you say. They’ve been brainwashed for decades into believing, oh, we’re not damaging the environment…<ref>[http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2017/04/18/tea-party-co-founder-want-to-win-over-the-gop-on-renewable-energy-never-mention-climate-change/ Tea Party Co-Founder: Want to Win Over the GOP on Renewable Energy? Never Mention “Climate Change”] by Hemant Mehta (April 18, 2017) ''Friendly Atheist''.</ref>}}

As you can see above, fact-based debate on this is as one-sided as bringing an 8-inch atomic artillery piece to a knife fight. So climate denial inevitably involves a barrage of [[Bad faith|bad-faith]] misdirection tactics that do nothing to rebut the scientific consensus at issue.

===Which makes more sense?===
<center>
[[File:Climate change which makes more sense.png|center|600px]]
</center>

===The denialist staircase===
{{cquote|One of the reasons why the professional climate-change deniers have been so successful in penetrating the [[media]] is that the [[PR|story]] that they have to tell is one that people want to hear.|||[[George Monbiot]], ''Heat''<ref>[https://books.google.com/books/about/Heat.html?id=wsnaAAAAMAAJ ''Heat: How to to Stop the Planet from Burning''] by George Monbiot (2006) Allen Lane ISBN 9780713999235.]</ref>{{rp|40}}}}
[[File:DenialistStaircase.png|right|400px|thumb|In a nutshell…]]
Global warming deniers form a sliding scale of denial which is outlined below — in general these beliefs are designed to prevent action being taken. The denialist tactics take the form of a staircase or ladder in so far as once one tactic becomes too obviously indefensible, the denialist will move onto the next step.{{efn|[[Michael Mann]] presented a simplified denialist ladder in his book ''The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars'':
#CO<sub>2</sub> is not actually increasing.<ref>''The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines'' by Michael E. Mann (2013) Columbia University Press. ISBN 0231152558.</ref>{{rp|23}}
#Even if it is, the increase has no impact on the climate since there is no convincing evidence of warming.
#Even if there is warming, it is due to natural causes.
#Even if the warming cannot be explained by natural causes, the human impact is small, and the impact of continued greenhouse gas emissions will be minor.
#Even if the current and future projected human effects on Earth's climate are not negligible, the changes are generally going to be good for us.
#Whether or not the changes are going to be good for us, humans are very adept at adapting to changes; besides, it's too late to do anything about it, and/or a technological fix is bound to come along when we really need it.}}

#Not only deny global warming, but insist the opposite is occurring,{{efn|As seen on [[Conservapedia]].}} pushing the degree of denialism to the verge of the [[insanity|delusional]]. 
#Simply deny global warming is happening and maintain that no action is necessary<ref>[http://www.abcnews.go.com/2020/story?id=3061015 The Global Warming Myth? Instead of panicking over climate change, we should adjust to it.] by John Stossel (January 8, 2008, 12:28 PM) ''ABC News''.</ref> — so we don't have to change anything. 
#Global warming is happening, but it’s not caused by humanity — so we don’t have to change anything.
#Global warming is happening, and it is in part caused by humanity, but mostly it's caused by solar activity — so we don't have to change anything.
#Global warming is happening, and it is in part caused by humanity, but [[prediction|predicting]] future emission levels is [[False analogy|equivalent to astrology]] — so we don't have to change anything, [[Cornucopian vs. Malthusian debate#Reference points|Ehrlich]]!<ref>[http://www.skepticalscience.com/ipcc-model-gw-projections-done-better-than-you-think.html IPCC model global warming projections have done much better than you think] (1 October 2013) ''Skeptical Science''.</ref>
#Global warming is caused by humanity, but it may be a ''good thing'' — so we don’t have to change anything.<ref>[http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/blog/environment-climate-change-denier-global-warming New argument from climate change deniers: global warming is a good thing. Facing overwhelming evidence of climate change, some deniers argue global warming could be a business opportunity] by Greg Harman (8 May 2014 11.00 EDT) ''The Guardian''.</ref>
#Global warming is happening, it is caused by humanity, it may be a bad thing, but <nowiki>[insert </nowiki>[[emotional appeal]] and/or [[false dichotomy]] about how doing anything about it [[Environmental classism|would prevent the world's poor from improving their lives]]<nowiki>]</nowiki> — so we don't have to change anything.
#Global warming is happening, it is caused by humanity, it may be a bad thing, but there are [[Whataboutism|still more serious crises that deserve higher priority]]{{efn|See our article on [[Bjorn Lomborg]].}} — so we don't have to change anything.
#Global warming is happening, it is caused by humanity, it is a bad thing, but it's just human [[sin]], so outside of worthless [[Prayer|praying]], we don't have to change anything.<ref>[http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2017/02/01/christian-right-leader-forget-carbon-climate-change-is-caused-by-sin/ Christian Right Leader: Forget Carbon. Climate Change Is Caused By Sin!] by Hemant Mehta (February 1, 2017) ''Friendly Atheist''.</ref>
#Global warming is happening, it is caused by humanity, it is a bad thing, but [[China]] and [[India]] aren't doing anything — [[two wrongs make a right|so we don’t have to change anything]].<ref>[http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2014/11/awkward-supercut-republicans-using-china-excuse-climate-inaction Watch a Supercut of Republicans Using China as an Excuse to Do Nothing About Climate Change] by James West (November 12, 2014) ''Mother Jones''.</ref>
#Global warming is happening, it is caused by humanity, it is a bad thing, and maybe China and India are willing to do something, [[Science woo|but I've heard about this new energy source/technology that's going to completely solve the problem in 10-20 years]] — [[wishful thinking|so we don't have to change anything]].
#Global warming is happening, it is caused by humanity, it is a bad thing, but even if China and India do something it’s too late for us to do anything and it would cost us a shitload of dough — so we don’t have to change anything.
#[[Guy McPherson|Global warming was happening, it was caused by humanity, it is a very bad thing and previous governments could and should have done something, but it's too late now!]]{{efn|This staircase of idiocies might remind one of {{wpl|Humphrey Appleby}} in the British TV series {{wpl|Yes Minister|''Yes Minister''|.}}}}

When [[debate|debating]] global warming, it is wise to establish beforehand which of the opinions each debater holds, referring to the list above — otherwise you can waste a lot of time proving the wrong point. It may be similar to arguing with someone about the [[New World Order]] (NWO) as you need to find out exactly where they stand before engaging with them. 

Global warming deniers have raised a number of ''slightly'' more scientific arguments which are covered below.

Many of these claims are thrown into one big denialist soup. However, the problem is that many of them are also contradictory in nature.

For example, the common talking points about it being warmer during the [[Medieval]] Warm Period and low climate sensitivity (i.e. "climate is much more stable than that") contradict each other, because the existence of a Medieval Warm Period ''necessitates'' high climate sensitivity.

Another common inconsistency lies in asserting that "[[FUD|temperature records and proxies are ''notoriously inaccurate'']]" (always [[Vague|to some undecidable degree]] ''beyond'' the statistical error scientists already factor in), while in the next breath, suddenly 
inventing
 presenting [[Cherry_picking|select 'reliable records']] as evidence for whichever esoteric conclusion on global climate the individual denialist in question [[Confirmation_bias|happens to be gunning for ''this'' time around]].<ref>[http://www.skepticalscience.com/contradictions.php Global Warming Skeptic Contradictions] ''Skeptical Science''. A full list of contradictory claims.</ref>

===NASA and the Y2K bug===
[[Steve McIntyre]] deduced, and NASA recently admitted, that NASA programmers had a [[Y2K]] bug in their source code that processes temperature data. This bug introduced a 0.02% change in the temperature data that has been corrected. Before this correction 1998 was listed as the hottest year recorded, but this difference was [[Statistical significance|statistically non-significant]] with the second place year 1934; with the correction 1934 becomes the hottest year. 1934 was a period of intense drought in the United States, as it was during the Dust Bowl years in the [[Great Depression]]. The change does not affect the ''global'' temperature; it only changes the temperature data for the United States. This confuses global warming deniers, who largely do not understand that the world extends beyond the borders of the United States.

The old temperature series data for the U.S. was as follows:

<center>[[Image:Gissusold.png]]</center>

With the correction it changes to:

<center>[[Image:Gissusnew.png]]</center>

Denialists jumped on the [[bandwagon]] in regards to this shift making many grandiose claims that it [[Lying by omission|invalidates all of the data that proves]] [[confirmation bias|this has been the hottest decade in recorded history]]. This is not the case; it only makes a tiny difference that does not change the decade averages ''or'' the global averages.

===Glacier retreat calculations===
Scientists have found [[DNA]] from ancient animals in an ice layer of [[Greenland]], 1.9&nbsp;km (1.2 miles) beneath the surface.<ref>[http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/317/5834/111 Ancient Biomolecules from Deep Ice Cores Reveal a Forested Southern Greenland] by Eske Willerslev et al. (2007) ''Science'' 317(5834:111-114.</ref> Since this study indicates that the ice layer survived the last interglacial, it has led to speculation that the ice caps may be able to also withstand global warming.<ref name="boston">[http://www.boston.com/news/local/articles/2007/07/06/greenland_ice_yields_hope_on_climate/ Greenland ice yields hope on climate] by Colin Nickerson (July 6, 2007) ''The Boston Globe''.</ref> However, the main author of the study "dismissed" suggestions that his team's data indicated that sea levels would not rise to predicated levels, saying that "during the last interglacial, sea levels rose by 5-6m, but this must have come from other sources additional to the Greenland ice cap, such as [[Antarctic]] ice. I would anticipate that as the Earth warms from man-made climate change, these sources would still contribute to a rise in sea levels."<ref>[https://archive.today/JeFQQ Greenland's ancient forests shed light on stability of ice sheet] (2007) ''Natural Environment Research Council'' (archived from 7 Jul 2013 13:14:15 UTC).</ref>

Another scientist pointed out that it may not be reasonable to extrapolate the study's results to our current situation, because the temperature changes in previous interglacials occurred at a much slower pace.<ref name="boston"/> (Coincidentally, this article provides more evidence that the world is at least 120,000 years old, which flies in the face of [[creationists]] who [[Evidence against a recent creation|claim the Earth is 6000 years old]].)

Denialists like to say that scientists promote alarmism because they "falsely predicted the end of glaciers in Montana's Glacier National Park by 2020," but a closer look at the science shows that it was just one office manager at the US Geological Survey who made this prediction, and he wasn't a climate scientist.<ref>[https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/08/us/glaciers-national-park-2020-trnd/index.html Glacier National Park is replacing signs that predicted its glaciers would be gone by 2020] by Christina Maxouris & Andy Rose (January 8, 2020) ''CNN''.</ref>

===Nature generates more CO<sub>2</sub> than humans===
[[File:Carbon sink.jpg|right|400px|thumb|Natural emissions of carbon dioxide have been counter-balanced by natural sinks over thousands of years. Now, industrial contributions are throwing off the balance.<br/><small>Source: IPCC 2007 ([https://rationalwiki.org/w/images/1/1f/Carbon_sink.jpg Click to enlarge])</small>]]

While it is true that natural sources of CO<sub>2</sub> release represent a much higher percentage of CO<sub>2</sub> output, natural carbon "sinks" that take up that CO<sub>2</sub> balance it out whereas humans add extra CO<sub>2</sub>, without removing any. The amount of CO<sub>2</sub> in the atmosphere has been relatively constant for hundreds of thousands of years due to output and input being equal. What humans are doing is burning and releasing natural carbon sinks, therefore releasing CO<sub>2</sub> without ''creating'' additional carbon sinks, leading the net amount of CO<sub>2</sub> to increase over time due to our involvement even though the total human output is ''less'' than natural sources.<ref>[https://scentofpine.org/gw101-3/ A Global Balancing Act] ''Scent of Pine''.</ref>

One of the interesting things is that the natural outputs of CO<sub>2</sub> and the human-made outputs contain different [[Atom#Isotopes|isotope]]s. Fossil fuel burning outputs CO<sub>2</sub> that has less <sup>14</sup>C and <sup>13</sup>C than do natural sources. Using [[Carbon dating|tree ring dating]] it can be shown that the proportion of <sup>14</sup>C-containing CO<sub>2</sub> in the atmosphere decreased substantially prior to the 1940s, when the [[Largely defensive weapon of gun|largely defensive weapon of]] [[nuclear war|atomic bomb]] actually negated our ability to use that test. But <sup>13</sup>C testing confirmed the <sup>14</sup>C testing and showed that fossil fuel burning is the number-one contributor to the increase in the CO<sub>2</sub> in the atmosphere.<ref>[http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11638 Climate myths: Human CO<sub>2</sub> emissions are too tiny to matter] by Catherine Brahic (16 May 2007) ''New Scientist''.</ref>

Volcanic activity, specifically underwater volcanic activity, is often cited (usually drawing on the writings of [[Ian Plimer]]) as producing more CO<sub>2</sub> than humans. This, however, is demonstrably false.<ref name=gerlach>[https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/file_mngr/file-154/Gerlach-2011-EOS_AGU.pdf Volcanic Versus Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide] by T. Gerlach (2011) ''Eos'' 92(24):201-202. doi:10.1029/2011EO240001.</ref> So-called {{wpl|large igneous province|large igneous provinces|,}} mostly lava flows of huge volume (millions of cubic kilometers) that erupt over a few million years, may be associated with rapid global warming, but none have erupted in the past five million years. Within human history, volcanic eruptions tend to have a ''cooling'' effect due to emission of sulfur aerosols.

Human activities emit 60 or more times the amount of carbon dioxide released by volcanoes each year. Large, violent eruptions may match the rate of human emissions for the few hours that they last, but they are too rare and fleeting to rival humanity’s annual emissions. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, more than 2,000 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide have been added to the atmosphere by human activities<ref>[http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/ Global Carbon Budget]</ref><ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20170125112333/http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/global.1751_2013.ems Global CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: 1751-2013] by Tom Boden et al. (April 19, 2016) ''Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory'' (archived from January 25, 2017).</ref> whereas the global estimates of CO<sub>2</sub> released by volcanoes fell within a range of about 0.3 ± 0.15 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide per year,<ref name=gerlach/> making human carbon dioxide emissions around 90 times larger.<ref>[https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/which-emits-more-carbon-dioxide-volcanoes-or-human-activities Which emits more carbon dioxide: volcanoes or human activities?] by Michon Scott and Rebecca Lindsey (June 15, 2016) ''NOAA Climate.gov''.</ref>

Oddly enough, some denialists also point out the significant amounts of CO<sub>2</sub> created by livestock, and somehow totally ignore that these animals are bred and kept by humans, ergo making it ''human-made'' emissions. Clearly it is (anthropogenic) burning of fossil fuels that is responsible.<ref>[https://skepticalscience.com/human-co2-smaller-than-natural-emissions-basic.htm How do human CO<sub>2</sub> emissions compare to natural CO<sub>2</sub> emissions?] by GPWayne (Last updated on 5 July 2015) ''Skeptical Science''.</ref>

A more bizarre claim was made by Tom DeWeese of the American Policy Center, namely that trees [[Lulz|give off]] CO<sub>2</sub> instead of absorbing it. He also claimed that environmentalism was the [[Watermelon|work of Communist leaders]] bent on destroying the freedoms of the West after the collapse of the [[Soviet Union]], which indicates that live audio and [[Dunning-Kruger effect|Dunning-Kruger]] often go hand in hand.<ref>[http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/anti-environmental-activist-denies-rising-co-levels-insists-trees-give-off-carbon-dioxide Anti-Environmental Activist Denies Rising CO<sub>2</sub> Levels, Insists 'Trees Give Off Carbon Dioxide'] by Brian Tashman (June 13, 2012 1:30 pm) ''Right Wing Watch''.</ref> Scientific studies prove Global Warming can not be caused by natural forces alone.<ref>[http://zeenews.india.com/news/eco-news/study-confirms-global-warming-not-driven-by-natural-forces_1851490.html Study confirms global warming not driven by natural forces: The new study reveals that unless pushed by outside forces, temperatures should remain stable.] (Feb 02, 2016, 13:18 PM IST) ''Zee News''.</ref>

Even if it was not the cause that humans are causing global warming, this is absolutely not a reason to not do something about it. It would be just as dumb of a decision as doing nothing about an incoming earthquake, [[hurricane]], [[typhoon]] or volcano eruption simply because those aren't caused by humans.

===CO<sub>2</sub> levels lag behind temperature increases===
[[File:Vostok Ice Core Records.gif|right|300px|thumb| Vostok ice core records for carbon dioxide concentration and temperature change showing CO2 and temperatures are closely correlated.{{efn|However, based on Antarctic ice core data, changes in CO<sub>2</sub> follow changes in temperatures by about 600 to 1000 years. This has led some to (falsely) conclude that CO<sub>2</sub> simply cannot be responsible for current global warming.}}<ref>[https://skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature-basic.htm CO<sub>2</sub> lags temperature — what does it mean?] (Last updated on 21 April 2021) ''Skeptical Science''.</ref>]]

There have been several major changes in the Earth's climate over its 4.5-billion year history. These have included spectacular effects such as the [[ice age|snowball earth]] and periods of intense global warming.<ref>[https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/11362 Ask A Climate Scientist — Lagging CO<sub>2</sub>] by Peter Hildebrand (September 24, 2013) ''NASA''.</ref> These periods of warming and cooling all have a range of causes mostly involving positive feedback loops, such as ice reflecting the sun back to [[space]] causing more ice, reflecting more sun, and Milankovitch cycles, variations in Earth's orbit that have an effect on climate.<ref>[https://climatechangeconnection.org/science/what-about-lag-time/ What About Lag Time?] ''Climate Change Connection''.</ref> The warming had similar positive feedback loops, which initially could have been caused by one of many factors but eventually the warming increased the levels of CO<sub>2</sub> which then caused ''even more'' warming.<ref>[https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11659-climate-myths-ice-cores-show-co2-increases-lag-behind-temperature-rises-disproving-the-link-to-global-warming/ Climate myths: Ice cores show CO<sub>2</sub> increases lag behind temperature rises, disproving the link to global warming] by Michael Le Page & Catherine Brahic (16<sup>th</sup> May 2007) ''New Scientist''.</ref> The fact that CO<sub>2</sub> level increases have not been responsible for the start of 100 percent of all global warming events on the planet does not negate the fact that CO<sub>2</sub> in the atmosphere does cause warming. 

In the case of warming, the lag between temperature and CO<sub>2</sub> is explained as follows: as ocean temperatures rise, oceans release CO<sub>2</sub> into the atmosphere. In turn, this release amplifies the warming trend, leading to yet more CO<sub>2</sub> being released. In other words, increasing CO<sub>2</sub> levels become both the cause and effect of further warming.

A 2012 study<ref>[https://sci-hub.se/10.1038/nature10915 Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation] by Jeremy D. Shakun et al. (2012) ''Nature'' 484:49–54. doi:10.1038/nature10915.</ref> looked at temperature changes 20,000 years ago (the last glacial-interglacial transition) and found:<ref>[https://skepticalscience.com/skakun-co2-temp-lag.html Shakun et al. Clarify the CO<sub>2</sub>-Temperature Lag] by dana1981 (10 April 2012) ''Skeptical Science''.</ref>
*The 800-year lag displayed is about the time required to flush out the deep ocean through natural ocean currents while warmings take about 5000 years to be complete.<ref>[http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/co2-in-ice-cores What does the lag of CO<sub>2</sub> behind temperature in ice cores tell us about global warming?] (3 December 2004) ''RealClimate''.</ref><ref>[http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/04/the-lag-between-temp-and-co2/ The lag between temperature and CO<sub>2</sub>. (Gore’s got it right.)] (27 April 2007) ''RealClimate''.</ref>
*The Earth's orbital cycles triggered warming in the Arctic causing large amounts of ice to melt, flooding the oceans with fresh water. This influx of fresh water then disrupted ocean current circulation, in turn causing a seesawing of heat between the hemispheres.
*The Southern Hemisphere and its oceans warmed first, starting about 18,000 years ago. As the Southern Ocean warms, the solubility of CO<sub>2</sub> in water falls. This causes the oceans to give up more CO<sub>2</sub>, releasing it into the atmosphere, which in turn caused the entire planet to warm via the increased greenhouse effect.
*Basically, the study concluded that CO<sub>2</sub> lags and leads. In the Southern Hemisphere, the temperature rise happened first (CO<sub>2</sub> lagged), whereas in the Northern Hemisphere, the CO2 increase was first.<ref>[https://www.nature.com/articles/srep21691 On the causal structure between CO<sub>2</sub> and global temperature.] by Adolph Stips et al. Sci Rep 6, 21691 (2016) ''Scientific Reports'' 6:21691. doi:10.1038/srep21691 (Another scientific paper that reports the same conclusions)</ref> This is because of the above described points.
*Overall, more than 90% of the glacial-interglacial warming occurs after the atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> increase. Indeed, given that CO<sub>2</sub> ''does not'' lag the current warming is one more piece of evidence demonstrating that established natural cycles are not the cause of the warming.

===Water vapour is a more important greenhouse gas===
Water vapour is one of the most potent greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere and accounts for a substantial portion of the greenhouse effect that raises the Earth's temperature from an inhospitable 19 degrees below zero to a more temperate 16 degrees above zero. Global warming denialists have used this to claim that carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) is an unimportant gas in the greenhouse effect &mdash; and this can be coupled with the fact that burning fossil fuels (oxidation) results in the release of water vapour in addition to carbon dioxide.

However, this argument that CO<sub>2</sub> is not the cause of global warming misses (possibly [[willful ignorance|intentionally]]) several key facts. First, water vapour is often saturated in the atmosphere. At high altitudes, where the temperature is low, water vapour cools and condenses to form clouds, and if the water droplets are big enough, this leads to rain. The amount of water vapour, therefore, is largely dependent on the temperature.<ref>[http://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/its-water-vapor-not-the-co2.html It’s Water Vapor, Not the CO<sub>2</sub>] ''American Chemical Society''.</ref> Adding water to the atmosphere may alter weather patterns but its concentration does not differ on the scales considered by climate scientists. As it is removed from the atmosphere on a fast time scale, it can cause short lived but extreme changes in temperature, and so is the cause of much freak, but short-term, weather. Carbon dioxide on the other hand has a much longer life-time in the atmosphere and its concentration is not capped by saturation in the atmosphere. This makes the effect that CO<sub>2</sub> has on the Earth's climate a considerable force.<ref>[http://www.skepticalscience.com/water-vapor-greenhouse-gas.htm Explaining how the water vapor greenhouse effect works] by James Frank (Update July 2015) ''Skeptical Science''.</ref>

===It has been hotter in the past so it is just cyclical===
While it is true that there have been [[Cyclical theory|cyclical patterns]] of temperature changes throughout our planet's history, this does not mean that causes are unknown, unknowable, or all the same.<ref>[https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2017/04/04/how-we-know-climate-change-is-not-natural/ How We Know Today's Climate Change Is Not Natural], ''Colombia Climate School'', April 4, 2017</ref> The application of the [[scientific method]] is great for working out cause/effect relationships. Scientists have managed to link several warming and cooling cycles in the [[geology|geologic]] history to specific causes.<ref>[http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/earth/cause-ice-age.html What Triggers Ice Ages? During the past billion years, the Earth's climate has fluctuated between warm periods—sometimes even completely ice-free—and cold periods, when glaciers scour the continents. In this article, climate scientist Kirk Maasch offers perspective on these historic changes, including the likely causes of the last great ice age—which contrary to common knowledge, we are still in the midst of.] by Kirk Maasch (December 31, 1996) ''Nova (PBS)''.</ref> They have also shown that the modern warming is due to the added output of humans burning fossil fuels and destroying carbon sinks.<ref>[https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/ The Causes of Climate Change] ''NASA''.</ref> In addition, the current climate change is happening '''''fast''''' — over a period of decades rather than millennia. Past natural climatic patterns that were destructive were associated with cool periods, while the projected future catastrophe from AGW is going to be associated with warming; this makes man-made climate change far worse than naturally occurring climate change.<ref>[http://www.nature.com/news/species-multiply-as-earth-heats-up-1.11350 Species multiply as Earth heats up: Biodiversity increases with gentle warming] by Richard Lovett (03 September 2012) ''Nature''.</ref>
 
The existence of previous warming cycles ''does not'' negate the seriousness of the current one [comments: the set of premises {previous warming cycles exist, ... , ...} (where the two ellipses leave room for assumptions and hypotheses) does ''not'' entail the following statement: the current warming cycle poses systemic threats to the earth, and ultimately, a general increase in disutility viz. suffering)] These previous cycles destroyed a great deal of life on the planet, and if similar effects occurred today they could potentially destroy all of human civilization, along with the humanity that created it.<ref>[https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/6/13/18660548/climate-change-human-civilization-existential-risk Is climate change an “existential threat” — or just a catastrophic one?], ''Vox'', July 28, 2019</ref> This does mean that the earth itself will survive, but no denialist would be around to gloat.

===Global warming has more to do with the Sun than the Earth===
[[File:Sunvsclimate.png|right|260px|thumb|Annual global temperature change (red) with 11 year moving average of temperature (red).<ref>[https://skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm Sun & climate: moving in opposite directions] Basic rebuttal written by Larry M, updated by Sarah (Update July 2015) ''Skeptical Science''.</ref>]]
Changes in the [[Sun]] have not been responsible for recent climatic trends; there has not been any significant change in the total energy output of the sun since we have started measuring it, and no changes in the sun or sun phenomena correlate with increased temperatures.<ref>[http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/solact.html Correlation of global temperature with solar activity] by 	R. Nave, ''HyperPhysics''. "''While it appears that the measured solar cycle length tracks the temperature better than the CO2 concentration for the twentieth century up to 1970, this presented data remains quite controversial. When you look at the climate models that seek to show the human influence past 1970, you do see a good correlation of the temperature with the projected CO<sub>2</sub> influence included, while the correlation with solar cycle length weakens.''"</ref> Over the last 35 years the Sun has shown a cooling trend, meanwhile global temperatures continue to rise.<ref>[https://lasp.colorado.edu/home/sorce/data/tsi-data/sorce-total-solar-irradiance-plots/ SORCE Total Solar Irradiance Plots] ''Solar Radiation & Climate Experiment, University of Colorado Boulder''.</ref> 

One thing that ''can'' change is small perturbations in the orbit of the Earth that draw the planet closer to or further from the sun. These perturbations might be linked to the start of several of the major climate changes in the geologic history of the Earth. Nonetheless, the actual change in temperature due to these orbital changes is small and the large-scale changes are due to feedback loops localized to Earth pushing things in one direction or another. 

There is no evidence that such an orbital shift is happening now, but even if it has, it can only explain a very small percentage of the increase in global temperature. This issue was also a point of contention in the [[Soon and Baliunas controversy]].

====It must be the sun because other planets are warming too====
Many of the [[planet]]s and [[moon]]s (and [[Pluto|a certain dwarf planet]]) in our [[solar system]] are big enough and geologically active enough to have both an atmosphere and a climate. In any given system there will be some planets increasing in temperature and some decreasing in temperature. This is due to changes in the localized climate, just as it is with Earth. The causes are different for each planet and have little to no bearing on each other. 

Even if the sun ''does'' have a role, it is not likely that our own activities are helping the situation. It would actually be even more incentive to temper our works, because anthropogenic activity combined with solar activity obviously equals even higher rates of warming.

Here is a brief description of each planet said to be experiencing global warming used by denialists to suggest that global warming is caused by the sun:
*<b>Mars</b>: Mars has an elliptical orbit with high eccentricity. The orbit of the planet contributes greater changes to Martian climate than to Earth’s climate because it’s orbit is more extreme and eccentric than Earth’s.<ref>[https://sciencing.com/eccentricity-planet-mars-orbit-21768.html Eccentricity of Planet Mars' Orbit], ''Sciencing'', April 25, 2017</ref><ref>[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128130186000017 Chapter 1 - Orbital (Climatic) Forcing and Its Imprint on the Global Landscape], ''ScienceDirect''</ref> Furthermore, Mars has a very thin atmosphere which makes it much more susceptible to climate changes than Earth. Therefore, even if Mars is experiencing global warming, it does not prove the sun is the culprit behind climate change. This is also because there is little evidence that the Martian climate is warming. Martian climate is primarily driven by dust and albedo,{{efn|A good example of how dust affects Mars climate: in 2007, [https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Mars_Express/Mars_Express_watches_a_dust_storm_engulf_Mars Mars suffered a titanic dust storm that engulfed the entire planet. The dust storm contributed to a temporary warming effect around Mars, raising the temperature of the atmosphere by around 20-30°C]. Interestingly, whereas the atmosphere of the planet heated up, the surface of the planet cooled down because it received much less solar heat.}} not solar variations. The main piece of evidence for Martian warming is Fenton 2007<ref>[https://www.nature.com/articles/nature05718#citeas Global warming and climate forcing by recent albedo changes on Mars] by Lori K. Fenton et al. (2007) ''Nature'' 446:646–649. doi.org/10.1038/nature05718.</ref> which compares 2 snapshots of Martian surface taken by orbiters 22 years apart (1977 and 1999).

===Urban heat islands===
This point contends that weather station readings are affected by their proximity to cities, or "urban heat islands." See the article on [[Patrick Michaels]], a notable proponent of this argument, for a treatment of this point.
[[File:ArcticEscalator2012_med.gif|thumb|350px|Denialists love to cherry pick every slight raise to make it seem that Arctic sea ice has stopped melting.<br/><small>([https://youtu.be/xWdJuNYLTLs Warming version])</small>]]

Urban heat islands are real, and they can appear on climate maps even in the absence of climatic change outside the heat island. The proof of global warming is not that giant cities are getting warming, which is a local and limited negligible effect on a worldwide scale. Although an urban heat island can mitigate cold waves (generally a positive effect to people in giant cities) and intensify the harmful and even dangerous effects of a heat wave in a giant city) their influence does not extend deep into rural areas where the agriculture goes on. The urban heat island effect in a city such as [[Philadelphia]] has no influence upon the ecology of rural areas even a few kilometers outside Greater Philadelphia. Global warming implies that the climates of the rich agricultural area surrounding Philadelphia is also warming, with or without (and largely independent of) the urban heat island of Philadelphia. Global warming, if real, would appear also as warmer temperatures where the farms and forests are and the asphalt and shingled-roofs are not so common. 

Warmer climates are attested in rural areas far from any great population centers. Although urban heat islands may cause the reclassification of local urban climates into warmer classifications, the climatic zones have been moving poleward and into higher elevations in surrounding rural areas. Mitigation of the effect of the combination of an urban heat island and warmer temperatures within giant urban areas is a desirable end in itself for reducing deaths from heat waves in those areas. Changes in climate zones as identified by the Köppen Climate Classification, climate zones and heat islands are real.<ref>[https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2010EO370001 Climate Change: Past, Present, Future], ''Eos'', Vol. 91, No. 37, 14 September 2010</ref>

===Hey look! There's been no global warming since 1998===
One of the most popular claims made against climate science is that there has been "no global warming since 1998," or even that there has been a pattern of "global cooling" since that year. Denialists who have made this argument include [[Tim Ball]], [[Nigel Lawson]], [[Fred Singer]], [[Andrew Bolt]] and [[Christopher Monckton]]. The origins of this argument are unclear; perhaps it might have originated in a column by Bob Carter which appeared the ''[[Daily Telegraph]]'' in 2006.<ref>[http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3624242/There-IS-a-problem-with-global-warming...-it-stopped-in-1998.html There IS a problem with global warming… it stopped in 1998] by Bob Carter (09 April 2006 • 12:01am) ''The Telegraph''.</ref>

This argument fails for several reasons: it only takes into account the satellite measurements (UAH and RSS), which doesn't measure directly the surface temperatures. Not only are these satellites run by known deniers John Christy and [[Roy Spencer]], but they are funded in part by Exxon. No conflict of interest there! By contrast, both scientifically accepted surface temperature datasets (GISS and HATCET4) are only funded by government sources, and they show that the warming not only continues, but is accelerating in lock and step with the CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Most importantly, this is one of the finest examples of [[cherry picking]] since deniers only look at the data sets that match the conclusions they want to see. Classic climate denialism demands that average global temperature measurements must be taken from the peak of the hottest year and measured to the point trough of the coolest year. If the denialists ever picked years either side of 1998 as their start point, the argument would sink faster than the Titanic. This is because globally, 1998 was a record breaking hot year due to a very strong {{wpl|El Niño||.}}<ref>[http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2010-warmest-year.html NASA Research Finds 2010 Tied for Warmest Year on Record] by Steve Cole & Leslie McCarthy (01.12.11) ''NASA''.</ref> Additionally, another strong El Niño in 2015-16 caused temperatures to soar far past those seen in 1998,<ref>[http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-basic.htm What has global warming done since 1998?] by dana1981 (29 September 2017) ''Skeptical Science''.</ref> so they now have to ignore that time has been passing since 2014 as even their beloved RSS shows a record hot year. And during a La Niña in 2020, temperatures tied those for 2016 at record high strength.<ref>[https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/2020-tied-for-warmest-year-on-record-nasa-analysis-shows/#:~:text=Globally%2C%202020%20was%20the%20hottest,like%20carbon%20dioxide%20and%20methane. 2020 Tied for Warmest Year on Record, NASA Analysis Shows], ''Nasa'', January 14, 2021</ref>

===Using anecdotal evidence===
[[File:Cold.png|thumb|350px|So much for global warming!]]
Using [[Anecdotal evidence|arguments]] such as "Wow, it's really cold today! Global warming, my ass!" or "See! It's snowing in Atlanta for the first time in years!" to argue that "global warming" misuses numerical data, since even without global warming, there are fluctuations in local temperatures. Global warming refers to an overall average increase in temperatures of air and water. Additionally, global warming will temporarily result in some local areas that are cooler, despite the global average increasing.<ref>[https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/climate-change-colder-winters-global-warming-polar-vortex Why cold weather doesn’t mean climate change is fake], ''National Geographic'', January 23, 2019</ref> 

Strangely enough, this is a common argument used by [[Fox News]] and other [[right-wing]] organizations who often claim scientists are only using anecdotes of hot weather as proof of global warming when the exact opposite is true. Even more strange, when someone asks where the global warming is because it's snowing where they live, and someone else responds back with "It's 75°F and sunny here, and I'm north of you and up in the mountains" there is often a lingering silence. Apparently anecdotal evidence isn't allowed to [[Special pleading|work both ways]].

===Claiming there is no consensus in respect of global warming===
[[File:20211103 Academic studies of scientific consensus - global warming, climate change - vertical bar chart - en.svg|right|300px]]
Global warming denialists often try to claim that there is no scientific consensus, despite the fact that the IPCC — the main international body associated with investigating the phenomenon — says:<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20180616232943/http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/public-events/archiv/greencyclesii/programme/23.5.2011/exercise-policy-role-play/ipcc_gcii_text.pdf Selected statements from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4)] (May 23, 2011) ''Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research'' (archived from June 16, 2018).</ref>
{{cquote|Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level... There is very high confidence that the net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming.}}

Despite this assertion, denialists have attempted to use such methods as the discredited [[Oregon Petition]] in an effort to prove their case.

A 2004 study by Naomi Oreskes reviewed over 900 peer-reviewed papers and found none that dissented from the consensus.<ref>[http://www.sciencemag.org/content/306/5702/1686.full The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change] by Naomi Oreskes (2004) ''Science'' 306(5702):1686-1688. doi:10.1126/science.1103618.</ref> Criticism of the study has been withdrawn but continues to be repeated in denialist circles.<ref>[http://www.skepticalscience.com/naomi-oreskes-consensus-on-global-warming.htm What does Naomi Oreskes' study on consensus show?] by John Cook (July 2015) ''Skeptical Science''.</ref> For instance, Lawrence Solomon has claimed that Bennie Peiser, the British scientist who made the criticism, never actually withdrew it and [[Wikipedia]] is "censoring" him.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20111230014909/http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/224785/wikipropaganda/lawrence-solomon Wikipropaganda: Spinning green.] by Lawrence Solomon (July 8, 2008 6:00 A.M.) ''National Review'' (archived from December 30: 2011).</ref>

====97% scientists do not agree on climate change. The study was “unscientific”====
Communicating the expert consensus is very important in terms of increasing public awareness of any scientific topic. So it's not so surprising that Cook et al. (2013) and its 97% consensus result have been the subject of extensive denial among the usual climate denial members.<ref>[https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/may/28/wall-street-journal-denies-global-warming-consensus The Wall Street Journal denies the 97% scientific consensus on human-caused global warming: The Rupert Murdoch media continues to deny the reality of human-caused global warming] by Dana Nuccitelli (28 May 2014 09.00 EDT) ''The Guardian''.</ref>
*[https://skepticalscience.com/97-percent-consensus-robust.htm The Cook et al. (2013) 97% consensus result is robust]}}
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===Antarctic sea ice is increasing===
Many deniers will point to record setting Antarctic sea ice as proof that the warming has stopped, but they get quite uncomfortable when you point out the fact that Arctic sea ice and total global sea ice are at record lows, and continue to decrease at alarming rates. In fact, there is a scientific explanation for the record Antarctic sea ice. As ice on the land melts, it flows into the ocean, reducing the salinity of the ocean, and in turn raising the freezing point of the water. 

It is precisely because of the fact that Antarctica is melting that sea ice is growing, and scientists have been predicting this all along, not only because of the melting on land, but also because AGW causes the wind to increase, blowing more snow into the ocean, and further creating a snowfall effect, but reducing the salinity further.<ref>[http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n5/full/ngeo1766.html Influence of persistent wind scour on the surface mass balance of Antarctica] by Indrani Das et al. (2013) ''Nature Geoscience'' 6:367–371. doi:10.1038/ngeo1766.</ref> Scientists say that this effect is only temporary, and that when the snow on land is reduced by wind and melt to a certain tipping point, the melting of the sea ice will accelerate, which it has done since Antarctic sea ice is now at record lows.<ref>[ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/south/daily/data Index of southern hemisphere sea ice] ''University of Colorado'' (ftp connection).</ref>

===Global cooling?===
Scientists noticed that historically, the world had been heading towards an [[ice age]].{{efn|Technically speaking we are still in one as we still have permanent polar ice caps, for now, but towards the type of ice age where most of the world looks like [[Alaska]].}} A minority of scientists (i.e., ''not'' a scientific consensus) in the 1970s and earlier also predicted that the pollution would have ''cooling'' effect due to increased cloud cover from factories and other emissions.<ref>[https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/89/9/2008bams2370_1.xml The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consesnus] by Thomas C. Peterson et al. (2008) ''Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society'' 89(9):1325–1338. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.</ref> This actually is a thing and does throw a bit of a curveball into the models and appropriate course of action. For example, after [[9/11]] global air traffic more or less shut down, and the lack of contrails led to the discovery that airplane contrails act to stabilize air temperature throughout the day.<ref>[http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/space/contrail-effect.html The Contrail Effect] by Peter Tyson (April 17, 2006)From ''NOVA''.</ref> The real world is complicated,{{nofact}} and people use [[science]] to discover how it works. As such, scientific knowledge marches ever forward, and obviously the world has been warming. But the few works published have been enough for "climate skeptics" to strip mine for quotes. Exemplary of this [[quote mining]] was a [[Inflammatory language|sensationalist]] book published in 1977, ''The Weather Conspiracy: The Coming New Ice Age'', which was based primarily on two [[CIA]] reports.<ref>''The Weather Conspiracy: The Coming New Ice Age'' by The Impact Team (1977) Ballantine Books. ISBN 0345272099.</ref> The reports were subsequently repudiated by the researcher upon which they were based, Reid Bryson.<ref name=schneider>[https://www.nature.com/articles/270650a0.pdf Against instant books] by Stephen H. Schneider (1977) ''Nature'' 270:650. doi 10.1038/270650a0.</ref> Bryson stated that the reports were based on his pre-1974 views that did not take into account state-of-the-art climatology of 1977.<ref name=schneider/> The Impact Team consisted of 18 people with no expertise in weather, with three of them claiming to be "investigative reporters" and no one else claiming any other expertise.<ref name=schneider/>

Trotting out the global cooling trope is sometimes called the '''ice age fallacy'''.

Modern climate change deniers like to point out that winters have been unusually cool in some places, such as Texas which suffered a massive snow storm in winter of 2020-2021. These conspiracy theorists fail to realize that climate change is much more complex than universally rising temperatures, and that these abnormalities are actually symptoms of overall climate change, i.e, that weather is not climate.<ref>[https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/hot-planet/dont-be-fooled-weather-is-not-climate/ Don't Be Fooled: Weather Is Not Climate: But climate affects weather] by Kate Marvel (September 4, 2018) ''Scientific American''.</ref><ref>[https://www.texastribune.org/2021/12/14/winter-weather-texas-climate-change/ Winters get warmer with climate change. So what explains Texas’ cold snap in February?] by Erin Douglas (Dec. 14, 2021) ''The Texas Tribune''.</ref> Indeed, things like the winter storm in Texas were actually caused by climate change.<ref>[https://www.vox.com/22287295/texas-uri-climate-change-cold-polar-vortex-arctic Scientists are divided over whether climate change is fueling extreme cold events], ''Vox'', February 18, 2021</ref><ref>[https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/south-texas-el-paso/news/2021/10/21/texas-winter-storm-climate Was the historic Texas freeze caused by climate change], ''Spectrum News 1'', October 21, 2021</ref>

===Anthony Watts vs NOAA===
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===Climategate===
{{main|Climategate}}
Climategate was a [[manufactroversy]] in which documents were leaked that seemed to indicate a conspiracy to promote global warming among climate scientists… if you didn't understand the language of climate science.

===The causes of the more frequent wildfires worldwide are due to arson===
Political commentators such as [[Simon Webb]] have claimed that the vast majority of frequently-occurring wildfires were caused by arson, rather than natural causes.<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdUuCWJWEnU</ref><ref>https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/28/greece-fires-arsonists-extreme-weather</ref><ref>https://tvpworld.com/61356982/600-people-under-investigation-for-arson-in-portugal</ref> These claims also ignore the numerous instances of naturally caused wildfires worldwide, such as those in the U.S. states of California and Hawaii as well as Australia.

===There actually needs to be more CO<sub>2</sub>===
{{expand section}}
This argument suggests that CO<sub>2</sub> levels need to be higher in order to sustain life.<ref>[https://co2coalition.org/facts/140-million-year-trend-of-dangerously-decreasing-co2/] ''CO<sub>2</sub> coalition''</ref> This argument is entirely dependent on the assumption that the Earth and its inhabitants need a certain level of CO<sub>2</sub> or else everything will fall apart. As is shown above in the effects section however, this is completely untrue, as the argument is reliant on comparing changes over millions of years with changes over decades.

===Artificial intelligence will solve it===
It has been claimed by several influential techno-optimists that [[artificial intelligence]], particularly the ill-defined hypothetical [[artificial general intelligence]] type, will solve climate change, therefore all world problems including climate change are incidental to working on AI. This is a form of #11 in the {{sl|the denialist staircase}}. AI has been claimed as a solution even as the growing number AI data centers exacerbate climate change with enormous energey usage. [[Handwave|No details are given]] on how AI would solve climate change, and no realistic timeline is ever given, meaning that even if it could happen, it could easily be too late to have any effect. Notable proponents of this [[reductionist]] or [[golden hammer]] claim:<ref>''More Everything Forever: AI Overlords, Space Empires, and Silicon Valley's Crusade to Control the Fate of Humanity'' by Adam Becker (2025) Basic Books. ISBN 1541619595.</ref>{{rp|153-156,210-211,241,211,215-216}}
*Sam Altman, CEO of [[OpenAI]]
*[[Bill Gates]]
*{{wpl|J. Storrs Hall||,}} [[nanotechnology]] specialist and author of ''Where Is My Flying Car?''<ref>''Where Is My Flying Car?'' by J. Storrs Hall (2021) Stripe Press. ISBN 1953953182.</ref>
*William MacAskill, [[Effective altruism]] proponent

==Snarl words==
{{cquote|What I’m suggesting is we have a sort of an eco-evangelical hysteria going on and it leads me to [[Just asking questions|almost wonder]] if we are becoming a nation of environmental hypochondriacs that are willing to use the power of the state to impose enormous restrictions on the rights and the comforts of, and incomes of individuals who serve essentially a [[paranoia]], a [[phobia]], that has very little fact [[evidence]] in fact. Now these are observations that are popular to make because right now it's almost taken as an article of faith that this crisis is real. Let me say I take it as an article of faith if the [[Irony meter|Lord God almighty made the heavens and the Earth, and He made them to His satisfaction and it is quite pretentious of we little weaklings here on earth to think that, that we are going to destroy God’s creation]].|||[[Dick Armey]] (R-[[Texas|TX]]), on global warming<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20090811040034/http://thinkprogress.org/2009/07/31/armey-pollution-gospel/ Lobbyist Dick Armey’s Pollution Gospel: ‘As An Article Of Faith,’ It Is ‘Pretentious’ To Believe In Global Warming] by Lee Fang (Jul 31<sup>st</sup>, 2009 at 11:33 am) ''Think Progress''.</ref>}}
In addition to [[Snarl word|snarling]] falsehoods, global warming deniers also like to deride their opponents. While there's nothing wrong with shit-slinging, two terms used by global warming deniers are used in order to imply falsehoods or alarmism.

===CAGW===
"CAGW", for "catastrophic anthropogenic global warming", is a [[snarl word]] (or snarl acronym) that global warming denialists use for the established [[science]] of climate change. A [[Google]] Scholar search indicates that the term is never used in the peer-reviewed [[scientific literature]] on climate<ref>[https://www.nature.com/search?q=%22catastrophic%20anthropogenic%20global%20warming%22&order=relevance Search: "catastrophic anthropogenic global warming"] ''Nature''.</ref><ref>[https://search.sciencemag.org/?searchTerm=%22catastrophic%20anthropogenic%20global%20warming%22&order=tfidf&limit=textFields&pageSize=10&& Search: "catastrophic anthropogenic global warming"] ''Science''.</ref> except in reference to denialist tactics.<ref>[https://scholar.google.ca/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=%22catastrophic+anthropogenic+global+warming%22&btnG= search: "catastrophic anthropogenic global warming"] ''Google Scholar''.</ref>

It's not clear just when or how the denialists adopted CAGW over from the acronym AGW (anthropogenic global warming) used by normal folk. The term was used in blog comments at the ''[[New York Times]]''<ref>[http://tierneylab.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/06/global-warming-payola/comment-page-8/?apage=7 Global-Warming Payola?] by John Tierney (March 6, 2008 10:35 am) ''The New York Times''.</ref> and [[ScienceBlogs]] as early as 2008,<ref>[http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2008/03/25/the-disinformation-cycle/ The Disinformation Cycle] by Tim Lambert (March 25, 2008) ''Science Blogs''.</ref> and is likely to have been used earlier. By around 2011 CAGW had become commonplace in denialist blogs such as those of [[Anthony Watts]] or [[Judith Curry]], and over the next year or two essentially replaced AGW in such esteemed venues. Despite the qualifier, denialists apply the term indiscriminately to anything approximating the mainstream scientific view on climate, regardless of whether or not "catastrophic" outcomes are implied. 

As for motivation, it's an attempt to [[moving the goalposts|move the goalposts]]. Denialists realized they had lost the argument over plain old "anthropogenic global warming" — the basic [[physics]] of the problem have been known since the 19<sup>th</sup> century,<ref>[http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect] by Spencer Weart (February 2021) from ''The Discovery of Global Warming, American Institute of Physics''.</ref> so that rejecting AGW outright paints oneself as a loon. Adding "catastrophic" gives plenty of wiggle room for denialism.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20140729135856/http://wingnutopia.blogspot.com/2013/07/wingnut-dictionary-cagw.html Wingnut Dictionary — CAGW] (July 16, 2013) ''Wingnutopia on Earth'' (archived from July 29, 2014).</ref> [[Effects of global warming|Sea level rises a foot]]? [[racism|Just a few Pacific Islanders]] losing everything; no catastrophe. Sea level rises a few more feet? The [[Philippines]] get flooded out and we lose coastal cities like [[London]] and [[New York City|New York]]. But with a few trillion dollars we can move them inland; no catastrophe. And so on.

[[Potholer54]] has [[snark]]ily suggested renaming CAGW to EAGW, with the "E" standing for "Expensive."<ref>[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNgqv4yVyDw&t=13m41s The consequences of climate change (in our lifetimes)] (Apr 9, 2014) ''YouTube''.</ref>

===Warmist===
"Warmist" is a [[snarl word]] used by global warming deniers to describe anyone who is perceived to "[[belief|believe]]" in anthropogenic climate change. The term is comparable to "[[Evolutionist]]" among [[creationist]]s.

Originally, before the consensus developed, the term was value-neutral. Those who argued for global warming theory were nicknamed "warmists" and those against were called "coolists" or "coldists."<ref>[http://www.wordspy.com/words/warmist.asp warmist] ''Word Spy''.</ref> Post-[[scientific consensus|consensus]], the term warmism is now used in a derogatory sense, often as in "the warmist [[cult]]," "[[Secular religion#Environmentalism as a religion|the religion of warmism]]," or "the warmistas." [[Gore's Law|Al Gore]] is often considered the high priest of the warmist cult.<ref>An example: [http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/03/the_warmist_cult.html The Warmist Cult] by Andrew Thomas (March 18, 2011) ''American Thinker''. Note the article's brilliant use of [[Climategate]], the [[George Soros|Soros]]-[[James Hansen|Hansen]] [[canard]], and the [[global warming conspiracy theory|Maurice Strong conspiracy theory]].</ref> The term "coolist" has mostly fallen out of use, being largely replaced by "[[pseudoskepticism|skeptic]]" (for journalists who want to seem [[balance fallacy|balanced]]) or "denier" (for those who prefer to call a spade a spade). The "warmist" versus "denier" terminology is akin to "[[evilution]]ist" or [[Darwinism|Darwinist]] versus [[creationist]] in the debate over evolution, except the former pair tends to be used with more seriousness than the latter. 

A third but smaller breed has positioned itself between the "warmist/denier" dichotomy — the "lukewarmer." Unlike the other two labels, however, "lukewarmer" is often used as an un-[[ironic]] self-descriptive term. Lukewarmers tend to eschew outright denying climate science in favor of systematically low-balling IPCC estimates (see also [[Bjorn Lomborg]]).<ref>[http://theidiottracker.blogspot.com/2010/09/between-science-and-hard-place.html Between Science and a Hard Place: The Intellectual Incoherence of Lukewarmism. Part One: jimming the Overton window.] (September 19, 2010) ''The Idiot Tracker''.</ref><ref>[http://theidiottracker.blogspot.com/2010/09/between-science-and-hard-place-part-two.html Between the science and a hard place, Part Two: Confidence and Risk] (September 19, 2010) ''The Idiot Tracker''.</ref>

==Conspiracies==
{{cquote|Plot idea: 97% of the world's scientists contrive an environmental crisis, but are exposed by a plucky band of billionaires & oil companies.|||Scott Westerfeld<ref>[https://archive.ph/wk6NZ Plot idea: 97% of the world's scientists contrive an environmental crisis, but are exposed by a plucky band of billionaires & oil companies.] by Scott Westerfeld (5:27 PM - 20 Mar 2014) ''Twitter'' (archived from 17 Nov 2020 08:41:23 UTC).</ref>}}
The "Global Warming Conspiracy Theory" (GWCT) refers to the [[bullshit|questionable]] ideas bandied about by global warming [[denialists]] that global warming either isn't happening or is being over-hyped by a group of people who feel that they have some [[money|advantage to gain]] by promoting the [[evidence]] for global warming, apparently never having considered how much oil companies gain from denying the evidence for global warming.

Besides the general nonsensical nature of many of these theories, they generally fail to answer how the conspiracy reaches back to John Tyndall's discovery of the [[greenhouse effect]] in 1859 (perhaps [[Gore's Law|Al Gore]] invented a [[time travel|time machine]] after he was done with the [[Internet]]).<ref>[http://www.aip.org/history/climate/timeline.htm Discovery of Global Warming: Timeline (Milestones)] by Spencer Weart (February 2021) ''American Institute of Physics''.</ref>

===Theories===
{{cquote|So-called global warming is just a secret ploy by wacko tree-huggers to make America energy-independent, clean our air and water, improve fuel-efficiency of our vehicles, kick-start 21<sup>st</sup> century industries, and make our cities safer and more livable. Don’t let them get away with it!|||Chip Giller<ref>[http://joshmadison.com/2010/04/26/so-called-global-warming-is-just-a-secret-ploy/ So-called “global warming” is just a secret ploy by wacko tree-huggers to make America energy independent, clean our air and water, improve the fuel efficiency of our vehicles, kick-start 21st-century industries, and make our cities safer and more livable. Don’t let them get away with it!] by Chip Giller (Apr 26, 2010) ''Josh Madison''.</ref>}}
As is typical of many [[conspiracy theories]], there is not one theory but several contradictory ones. Some of the ones identified here are now a little out of date, and no doubt conspiracy theorists have now invented some other tortured reasons for people backing the "conspiracy." Because of the multiplicity of contradictory theories, it is a good idea to get a global warming denialist to explicitly state which particular "theory" they are backing.

A genealogy of climate change conspiracy theories can be found at the International Journal of Inactivism.<ref>[http://iji2.wordpress.com/2008/05/14/towards-a-genealogy-of-climate-conspiracy-theories/ Towards a genealogy of climate conspiracy theories] by stepanovich (2008/05/14) ''International Journal of Inactivism''.</ref>

The following are some of the many specific conspiracies identified regarding global warming. Note that this lists ''conspiracies'' rather than flat-out denials, though they often go in tandem.

*'''United Nations world-conquering scheme:''' Apparently, an individual named "Maurice Strong" is behind an attempt to use the [[United Nations]] and its Framework Convention on Global Climate Change to…&nbsp;well…&nbsp;take over either the world{{efn|Didn't the UN already ''collectively'' take over the world, or most of it already? I mean the member nations spans almost the entire world's land above water. I can understand taking over a country as in interfering the policies of that country, but the world as a whole is mostly controlled by UN as a whole since pretty much after [[World War II]].}} or the [[United States]].<ref>[http://www.biblebelievers.org.au/strong.htm Who is Maurice Strong? The adventures of Maurice Strong & Co. illustrate the fact that nowadays you don't have to be a household name to wield global power.] by Ronald Bailey (September 1, 1997) stolen from ''National Review'' by ''Bible Believers''.</ref> He is apparently assisted in this by [[World Economic Forum]], the {{wpl|Club of Rome||,}} the {{wpl|Aspen Institute||,}} the [[Socialism|Fabian Society]], and [[Communist]] [[China]] — he is, however, opposed by none other than The [[Dalai Lama]]!<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20080501153614/http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=23642 U.N. to rule over America? Geoff Metcalf interviews journalist, author William Jasper on global tyranny] by Geoff Metcalf (July 15 2001) ''WND'' (archived from May 1, 2008). Note: Dalai was misspelled as "Dali".</ref> [[Christopher Monckton]] loves this one.<ref>[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMe5dOgbu40 Is Obama Poised to Cede US Sovereignty?] (Oct 16, 2009) ''YouTube''.</ref>

*'''NWO scheme:''' It's an attempt by [[scientist]]s, [[politician]]s and [[environmentalist]]s to take over the world. According to William M. Gray, they wish to find "a political cause that would enable them to organize, [[propaganda|propagandize]], force conformity and exercise political influence.'" Apparently [[Al Gore]] has something to do with it.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20181009002615/http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/23/AR2006052301305_pf.html The Tempest] by Joel Achenbach (May 28, 2006) ''The Washington Post'' (archived from October 9, 2018).</ref> Muahahaha!

*'''Jacques Chirac scheme:''' It's an attempt by former [[French]] President Jacques Chirac and the secret [[Bilderberg Group]] to use the [[Kyoto Protocol|Kyoto Accords]] to take over the world.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20080829090413/http://epw.senate.gov/speechitem.cfm?party=rep&id=263759 Hot & Cold Media Spin: A Challenge To Journalists Who Cover Global Warming] by James Inhofe (September 25, 2006) ''U.S. Senate Committee on Environment & Public Works'' (archived from August 29, 2008).</ref>

*'''Climate science funding scheme:''' It's all a [[hoax]] invented by all the world's climate scientists to get funding.{{efn|Maybe it is because it is [[Conservatives|the people who came up with this conspiracy theory]] who deny funding to the scientists.}} The "[[evil]]" scientists have managed to fool the UN, the [[European Union]], and the entire world.<ref>[https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-440049/Greenhouse-effect-myth-say-scientists.html Greenhouse effect is a myth, say scientists] by Julie Wheldon (00:22 05 March 2007) ''The Daily Mail''.</ref> This angle is also rather [[ironic]] considering that a sinecure at a denialist [[think tank]] can easily pay better than an actual post as a climatology [[professor]].

*'''Green energy scheme:''' All climate scientists ''obviously'' own stock in green and renewable energy companies and they're pushing the theory to [[Appeal to motive|inflate their retirement funds and the green energy companies will make out like bandits]]. Not.<ref>[http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2011/02/if-climate-scientists-push-the-consensus-its-not-for-the-money.ars If climate scientists are in it for the money, they’re doing it wrong: Ars takes a look at the accusations that climate scientists push the consensus.] by John Timmer (5/30/2016, 9:10 AM) ''Ars Technica''.</ref>

*'''Anti-Africa scheme:''' It's a plot by those nasty environmentalists who want to prevent [[Africa]] developing a [[carbon]] economy. Alternatively, it's a plot by environmentalists who want to promote a carbon economy in Africa while damaging the USA's industrial output.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20100812041002/http://www.nationalcenter.org/P21NVPeterson401.html Global Warming: Hot Air That's Going to Make Me Colder and Poorer] by Edmund Peterson (April 2001) The National Center for Public Policy Research'' (archived from August 12, 2010).</ref> Two "theories" for the price of one!

*'''Anti-globalist scheme:''' This one suggests that it's associated with the anti-[[globalisation]] movement and it's an attempt to cripple the world economy.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20110609085136/http://www.melaniephillips.com/the-global-warming-con-trick The global warming con-trick] by Melanie Phillips (25 February 2002) ''Melanie Phillips'' (archived from June 9, 2011). Originally published in ''The Daily Mail.</ref> But how one can accept international treaties while opposing globalization is never explained.

*'''Pro-nuclear scheme:''' According to this "theory," it's all about an attempt by [[Margaret Thatcher]], and presumably her successors, to make the people of the world accept non-CO<sub>2</sub>-producing [[nuclear power]].<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20090224080439/http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3724/is_200703/ai_n18705944 Can of worms] by James Delingpole (Mar 10, 2007) originally published in ''The Spectator'' (archived from February 24, 2009).</ref> It's not exactly clear what Phase 2 is, but Phase 3 seems to be "profit." This was promoted in the film ''[[The Great Global Warming Swindle]]''. As it becomes clear that "[[Political correctness|politically correct]]" [[renewable energy]] sources such as wind and ground-based solar are unable to meet the needs of civilisation, expect this one to be uttered more often by [[fossil fuel]] industry opponents. It is noteworthy that the [[UK]] nuclear power industry has been handed over to the French! (see Jacques Chirac above)

*'''Socialist scheme:''' This theory claims that a carbon emissions [[tax]] (as proposed again by Al Gore, OMG!) would allow the United States [[government]] to gain substantial influence over industry (which, after the way they've managed to facilitate a global [[recession]], wouldn't be a bad thing, if the recession wasn't mostly caused by [[banking crisis|problems in the housing market]], of course).<ref>[http://www.prisonplanet.com/global-warming-or-global-governance.html Global Warming or Global Governance?] by George Stamm (Aug 8, 2008) ''The Epoch Times'' via ''Prison Planet''.</ref> Exactly why Al Gore would benefit from the US government controlling [[corporation]]s is unclear. Furthermore, with all the investment the government is presently being forced to make in industry, it may end up controlling a lot of it whether it has a carbon tax or not.

*'''Commie scheme:''' Supported by, among others, [[Frederick Seitz]] and [[Eric S. Raymond]], this claim is that global warming was a [[Watermelon|Soviet plot meant to undermine capitalism]].<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20130720065636/http://history.ucsd.edu/_files/base-folder1/Challenging_16Oct07..pdf Challenging Knowledge: How Climate Science Became a Victim of the Cold War (preprint)] by Naomi Oreskes & Erik M. Conway (2008) In: ''Agnotology: The Making and Unmaking of Ignorance'', edited by Robert Proctor & Londa Schiebinger. Stanford University Press. ISBN 0804759014.</ref> Terms like "[[meme]]tic weapon"{{efn|Outside Crazy Red-baiter World, "memetic weapons" are better known as "advertising". Um…}} and "leftover [[KGB]] psyops" have been thrown around, making this one of the loonier approaches.

*'''Eugenics and/or depopulation scheme:''' This brand of the conspiracy theory states that global warming is a front for the implementation of a worldwide [[eugenics]] program or a scheme to depopulate the planet and kill off the "[[useless eaters]]."<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20111127020442/http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech-mainmenu-30/environment/6987-the-link-between-eugenics-a-global-warming-hype The Link Between Eugenics and Global Warming Hype] by James Heiser (05 April 2011 11:37) ''New American'' (archived from November 27, 2011).</ref><ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20081024183402/http://www.infowars.com/articles/nwo/end_game_if_humans_are_virus_what_is_end_game.htm If humans are a virus, then what is the end game?] by Paul Joseph Watson (September 26, 2007) ''InfoWars'' (archived from October 24, 2008).</ref> Quotes from nutty [[hard green]]s ([[Pentti Linkola]] is a perennial favorite) often come in handy for "proving" this. A particularly amusing if little-known variant of this conspiracy theory posits that the depopulation plan was initiated by the [[anthropologist]] Margaret Mead at a 1975 conference on [[overpopulation]].<ref>[http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/2010/10/25/margaret-meads-bashers-owe-her-an-apology/ Margaret Mead's Bashers Owe Her an Apology] by John Horgan (October 25, 2010) ''Scientific American''.</ref> This theory is more popular in the conspiracist [[anti-abortion]] circles due to its connection with the issue of [[abortion]] and it also makes for some good [[red-baiting]] material due to China's [[one-child policy]], and you don't want to end up like those dirty Reds now do you?

*'''[[Fake news]] scheme:''' This scheme most notably surfaced with [[Rush Limbaugh]] and [[Alex Jones]] casting doubt on forecasts of extreme weather events, in particular Hurricane Irma of 2017.<ref name=grandoni>[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-energy-202/2017/09/07/the-energy-202-why-climate-change-deniers-mistrust-hurricane-forecasts-too/59b032be30fb04264c2a1d13/ The Energy 202: Why climate change deniers mistrust hurricane forecasts too] by Dino Grandoni (September 7, 2017 at 8:50 AM) ''The Washington Post''.</ref><ref name=borchers>[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/09/06/rush-limbaughs-dangerous-suggestion-that-hurricane-irma-is-fake-news/ Rush Limbaugh indicates he’s evacuating Palm Beach days after suggesting Hurricane Irma is fake news] by Callum Borchers (September 8, 2017 at 10:45 AM) ''The Washington Post''.</ref> Limbaugh's gambit is that the media benefits from increased [[advertising]] revenue from people watching extreme weather events on TV and retailers benefit from increased sales from extreme weather preparation, therefore it's fake news and part of the climate-change conspiracy.<ref name=grandoni/>

===The real conspiracy===
[[File:2560px-Exxon logo.svg2.png|thumb|right|165px|Exxon: the sign of the double-cross]]
There actually is a conspiracy surrounding climate change, and it's not what you'll hear from most conspiracy theorists: between 2003 and 2010, more than $7 billion were spent by conservative billionaires to fund anti-AGW organizations such as the [[Heritage Foundation]], the [[Heartland Institute]], and the [[Competitive Enterprise Institute]].<ref>[http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/20/conservative-groups-1bn-against-climate-change Conservative groups spend up to $1bn a year to fight action on climate change] by Suzanne Goldenberg (20 Dec 2013 14.58 EST) ''The Guardian''.</ref> Follow the money, indeed.

There are many entrenched interests who [[money|benefit]] from the current energy infrastructure of our modern civilization. Commonly mentioned "villains" are [[oil]] companies (as well as the complicit [[politician]]s they [[lobbying|lobby]]) who would stand to lose a lot of money if action were taken to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide dumped into the atmosphere, as this would imply a reduction in the use of [[fossil fuel]]s such as oil. 

Exxon (later ExxonMobil) has known since at least 1977 that global warming from fossil fuels could be an issue.<ref name=ucs/><ref name=dd/> By 1981, Exxon was "already factoring climate change into decisions about new fossil fuel extraction,"<ref name=ucs/><ref name=dd/> but was simultaneously promoting [[coal]] in 1981 TV advertisements.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKAQnbnnP6k 1981 Exxon Coal TV Commercial] by ewjxn (Jun 16, 2016) ''YouTube''. "This is a commercial I clipped from a 1981 episode of Barney Miller my father recorded on Betamax. It originally aired on KTVK Channel 3 in the Phoenix market. The commercial features Exxon's Coal division!"</ref> In 1995, there was an internal Exxon report that unequivocally stated that "burning the companies' products was causing climate change and that the relevant science 'is well established and cannot be denied.'"<ref name=ucs>[http://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/fight-misinformation/climate-deception-dossiers-fossil-fuel-industry-memos The Climate Deception Dossiers] (July 9, 2015 update) Union of Concerned Scientists</ref><ref name=dd>[https://s3.amazonaws.com/ucs-documents/global-warming/Climate-Deception-Dossiers_All.pdf Deception Dossiers: All Documents] ''Union of Concerned Scientists''.</ref> A 2023 analysis of ExxonMobil internal documents from the 1970s and early 1980s showed that ExxonMobil not only knew that climate change was likely to occur (and that an [[ice age]] would not) but accurately predicted the rate of global warming over time using available data.<ref>[https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk0063 Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections] by G. Supran et al. (2023) ''Science'' 379(6628). doi:10.1126/science.abk0063.</ref>

[[File:Logo Shell 1973.jpg|thumb|right|165px|[[Confidence trick|The sign of the shell game]]]]
Similarly, Shell petroleum company had privately begun investigating the effects of greenhouse gases in 1981, and by 1988 had become fully aware of their company's role in climate change.<ref>[https://www.climatefiles.com/shell/1988-shell-report-greenhouse/ 1988 Shell Confidential Report "The Greenhouse Effect"] (2018) ''Climate Files''.</ref><ref>[https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/sep/19/shell-and-exxons-secret-1980s-climate-change-warnings Shell and Exxon's secret 1980s climate change warnings: Newly found documents from the 1980s show that fossil fuel companies privately predicted the global damage that would be caused by their products.] by Benjamin Franta (19 Sep 2018 06.00 EDT) ''The Guardian''.</ref>

Consequently by way of [[coverup]], corporate interests have spent a vast amount of cash<ref>[http://web.archive.org/web/20110310031652/http://www.edf.org/article.cfm?ContentID=4870 Global Warming Skeptics: A Primer] (Posted: 19-Dec-2006; Updated: 28-Aug-2007) ''Environmental Defense Fund'' (archived from March 10, 2011).</ref><ref>[http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/09/secretive-donors-gave-us-climate-denial-groups-125m-over-three-years Secretive donors gave US climate denial groups $125m over three years: Funds allocated to organisations lobbying against Obama’s climate bill and working to undermine rules to reduce carbon pollution, tax records show] by Suzanne Goldenberg & Helena Bengtsson (9 Jun 2015 07.26 EDT) ''THe Guardian''.</ref> in an effort to discredit the science behind man-made global warming, and encourage global warming denialism.<ref>[http://scienceblogs.com/denialism/2007/10/17/al-gore-and-the-attack-of-the/ Al Gore and the Attack of the Global Warming Cranks] by Mark Hoofnagle & Chris Hoofnagle (October 17, 2007) ''ScienceBlogs ''.</ref> ExxonMobil has been one of the prime movers and [[Greenpeace]] reports have stated:

{{cquote|ExxonMobil's campaign to fund "[[think tank]]s" and organizations that [[Anti-environmentalism|spread misinformation]] about the science and policies of global warming is now widely known. The company’s multimillion dollar campaign has undoubtedly contributed to public confusion and government inaction on global warming over the past decade."<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20130706053814/http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/Global/usa/binaries/2007/5/exxon-secrets-analysis-of-fun.pdf ExxonMobil’s Continued Funding of Global Warming Denial Industry] (May 2007) ''Greenpeace'' (archived from July 6, 2013).</ref>}}

Between 2016 and 2019, Exxon explicitly stated:<ref name="exxon position"/>

{{cquote|The risk of climate change is clear and the risk warrants action. Increasing carbon emissions in the atmosphere are having a warming effect. There is a broad scientific and policy consensus that action must be taken to further quantify and assess the risks.}}

But they've toned it back a bit since, emphasizing the vaguer "risk of climate change" and pointing out that it's not only their fault: "…it's going to take all of us — business, governments and consumers — to make meaningful progress".<ref>[https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/Sustainability/Environmental-protection/Climate-change Climate change] ''ExxonMobil''.</ref>

Greenpeace is still monitoring ExxonMobil's attempts to distort public opinion in this area as can be seen in their website [http://www.exxonsecrets.org exxonsecrets] dedicated to exposing the company's activities. 

The disinformation campaign is similar to that embarked on by the [[tobacco]] companies who wished to persuade people that cigarettes were healthy,<ref>[http://www.grist.org/comments/soapbox/2004/02/03/smoke/ Global-warming activists can learn from the anti-smoking campaign: Twenty years ago, it seemed that virtually everyone smoked. You couldn’t sit in a restaurant for five minutes without stinking of cigarettes for hours. Now, in state after state, even biker bars are going smoke-free. Clearly, there’s been a dramatic shift in the public’s attitude toward smoking — but it hasn’t been an intellectual shift.] by Audrey Schulman (Feb 03, 2004) ''Grist''.</ref> and the campaigns carried out by the oil companies when they wished to continue adding [[lead]] to petrol. Indeed, the similarity between not only the techniques used by denialists to defend smoking and claiming that [[acid rain]] and global warming is either natural/not a huge problem/too expensive to fix, but also the overlap and interconnection in the cast of [[Expert for hire|experts for hire]] trotted out was the core argument in the book ''Merchants of Doubt''.{{efn|Among the granddaddies that kept popping up were [[S. Fred Singer]] and the late [[Frederick Seitz]].<ref>''Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming'' by Naomi Oreskes & Erik M. Conway (2011) Bloomsbury Press. ISBN 1608193942.</ref><ref>[http://pubs.acs.org/cen/books/89/8903books.html Sowing Seeds Of Doubt: How some scientists can twist the facts to suit ends other than scientific truth] reviewed by Gavin Schmidt (2011) ''Chemical & Engineering News'' 89(3):38-39.</ref>}}

After decades of coverup and lobbying governments to do nothing or go slow, Exxon decided to shift its strategy in 2024 by [[blaming the victim]]: it's now consumers' fault, they don't want to pay for renewable energy!<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukw3jhkxm-Q Exxon CEO Shares "Dirty Secret" Keeping Us From Net Zero Goals] ''Fortune Magazine (Feb 27, 2024) ''YouTube''.</ref><ref>[https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/04/exxon-chief-public-climate-failures Fury after Exxon chief says public to blame for climate failures: Darren Woods tells Fortune consumers not willing to pay for clean-energy transition, prompting backlash from climate experts] by Dharna Noor & Oliver Milman (4 Mar 2024 06.00 EST) ''The Guardian''.</ref>

==What about that ozone thing?==
Some members of the public get confused between ozone layer depletion and global warming — both involve some gases that somehow influence the already arcane dynamics of the atmosphere, and both are associated with dire consequences if we do not change our comfy lifestyle. There is a slight connection: Both ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) as well as the ozone killing chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) act as greenhouse gases, but on a smaller scale than the usual suspects carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) and methane (CH<sub>4</sub>).<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20140203211800/http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html Recent Greenhouse Gas Concentrations] (February 2013) ''Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory'' (archived from February 3, 2014).</ref><ref>{{wpa|IPCC list of greenhouse gases}}</ref><ref>[http://web.archive.org/web/20060330013311/http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/spring04/atmo451b/pdf/RadiationBudget.pdf Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget] by J. T. Kiehl & Kevin E. Trenberth (1977) ''Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society'' 78(2): 197-208. Archived from March 30, 2006). Impacts of water, carbon dioxide, methane and ozone on the overall greenhouse effect]</ref><ref>{{wpa|Greenhouse gas#Impacts on the overall greenhouse effect}}</ref>

However, they are largely separate issues: [[ozone layer]] depletion means that we all die because the ozone layer vanishes and the surface of Earth is bombarded with ultraviolet solar radiation, and global warming means that we face incredible hardship because the temperatures on earth rise too quickly for the ecosystems to adapt and the entire biosphere collapses.

==Epilogue …==
{{Longquote|In that long ago somewhere very near this place he’d watched a falcon fall down the long blue wall of the mountain and break with the keel of its breastbone the midmost from a flight of cranes and take it to the river below all gangly and wrecked and trailing its loose and blowsy plumage in the still autumn air.|A memory, from Cormac McCarthy’s ''The Road''}}

==See also==
{{collist|4|
*[[Anti-environmentalism]]
*[[Climategate]]
*[[CO2 is Green|CO<sub>2</sub> is Green]]
*[[Doctors for Disaster Preparedness]]
*[[Energy crisis]]
*[[Evil Liberal Science Conspiracy]]
*[[Tim Flannery]]
*[[Fun:Global warming denial Bingo|Global warming denial Bingo]]
*[[Gore's Law]]
*''[[The Great Global Warming Swindle]]'', denialist [[propaganda]] film
*[[James Hansen]]
*[[Greta Thunberg]]
*[[Kyoto Protocol]]
*[[Michael Mann]]
*[[Oregon Petition]]
*[[Potholer54]]
*[[Renewable energy]]
*[[Webshites#Global-warming_denialists|Global warming denialist webshites]]

*[[Fun:Global warming denial Bingo]]
}}

===Notable deniers===
:''See also [[:Category:Global warming denialists]]''.
<div style="column-count:4; -moz-column-count:4; -webkit-column-count:4">
*Former Australian Prime Minister [[Tony Abbott]]
*[[Buzz Aldrin]]
*[[American Government: Institutions and Policies]] (a textbook heavily criticised for its stance on global warming)
*[[Tim Ball]]
*[[Mike Bara]]
*[[E. Calvin Beisner]]
*[[cfact.org]]
*[[Competitive Enterprise Institute]]
*[[Michael Crichton]]
*[[Judith Curry]]
*Anyone taking [[Ethical Oil]] seriously
*[[Family Research Council]] (we don't get it, either)
*[[Freeman Dyson]]
*[[John Everett]]
*[[Nigel Farage]]
*[[Heartland Institute]]
*Former [[Australia|Australian]] Prime Minister John Howard
*[[David Icke]]
*U.S. Senator [[James Inhofe]]
*[[Institute of Public Affairs]]
*International Climate Science Coalition
*[[Alex Jones]]<ref name=borchers/>
*[[Paul Joseph Watson]]
*[[Rush Limbaugh]]<ref name=grandoni/><ref name=borchers/>
*[[Richard Lindzen]]
*[[Ross McKitrick]]
*[[Steve McIntyre]]
*[[Patrick Michaels]]
*[[Steve Milloy]]
*[[Christopher Monckton]]
*[[Marc Morano]]
*[[Lubos Motl]]
*Joel Myers, the founder and CEO of 
Inaccuweather
 Accuweather<ref>[https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/08/09/accuweather-misleads-global-warming-heat-waves-throwback-its-past-climate-denial/ AccuWeather misleads on global warming and heat waves, a throwback to its past climate denial] by Jason Samenow & Andrew Freedman (August 9, 2019) ''The Washington Post''.</ref>
*Former British environmental secretary Owen Paterson<ref>[http://www.skepticalscience.com/paterson-on-climate.html UK Secretary of State for the Environment reveals his depth of knowledge of climate change] by John Mason (12 June 2013) ''Skeptical Science''.</ref>
*[[Ron Paul]]
*[[Ian Plimer]]
*[[Dennis Prager]], as well as his propaganda outlet [[PragerU]]
*Scott Pruitt, former administrator of the U.S. [[EPA]]<ref>[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/02/17/scott-pruitt-long-time-adversary-of-epa-confirmed-to-lead-the-agency/?utm_term=.5d6ef5a802d3 Scott Pruitt, longtime adversary of EPA, confirmed to lead the agency] by Brady Dennis (February 17 at 1:50 PM) ''The Washington Post''.</ref>
*Russian President [[Vladimir Putin]]
*[[Eric S. Raymond]]
*[[Salem Radio Network]]
*[[Frederick Seitz]]
*[[S. Fred Singer]]
*[[Roy Spencer]]
*[[Philip Stott]]
* U.S. President [[Donald Trump]]<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20140223153126/https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/418542137899491328 This very expensive GLOBAL WARMING bullshit has got to stop. Our planet is freezing, record low temps,and our GW scientists are stuck in ice] by Donald J. Trump (16:39 - January 1, 2014) ''Twitter'' (archived from February 23, 2014).</ref>
*[[Alan Watt]]
*[[Anthony Watts]]

</div>

===The Toxic Ten===

On November 2 2021, the {{wpl|Center for Countering Digital Hate}} published a list of the "toxic ten" fringe publishers that, per the report, were responsible for 69% of [[Facebook]] user interactions with climate change denial content:<ref>[https://252f2edd-1c8b-49f5-9bb2-cb57bb47e4ba.filesusr.com/ugd/f4d9b9_277d4dc5f1f84858a6a2dc149f00b759.pdf "The Toxic Ten: How ten fringe publishers fuel 69% of digital climate change denial], Center for Countering Digital Hate, 2021 November 2</ref>

<div style="column-count:2; -moz-column-count:2; -webkit-column-count:2">
*[[Breitbart]]
*{{wpl|Western Journal}}
*[[Newsmax]]
*Townhall Media (including [[Townhall]], [[PJ Media]], [[RedState]], and [[Twitchy]])
*[[Media Research Center]]
*[[Washington Times]]
*Federalist Papers
*[[Ben Shapiro|Daily Wire]]
*[[Russian]] state media (such as [[Russia Today]] and [[Sputnik News]])
*Patriot Post
</div>

Unsurprisingly, despite Facebook's promise to attach "informational labels" to [[bullshit]] posts about climate change, 92% of the bullshit generated by these sources (many of which are obviously funded by self-interested petro-states like Russia or corporations like Exxon) evaded Facebook's fact checking algorithms.

{{otherlang
|pt=Aquecimento global}}

==External links==
=== Books ===
* [https://interestingliterature.com/2020/11/brunner-stand-on-zanzibar-review-analysis/ "Stand On Zanzibar" by John Brunner], for an examination of a dangerously overcrowded world.

===The evidence===
*[https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/ What's really warming the world?] The evidence is put into pretty graphs right in front of you. Shame that it has an overdose of scrolljacking and animation.
*[https://climate.nasa.gov/ NASA’s Climate website]
*[https://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2011/jun/20/george-perkins-marsh-climate-speech The 1847* lecture that predicted human-induced climate change], ''[[The Guardian]]'' (*: 1847, as in halfway through James K. Polk's presidency)
*[https://web.archive.org/web/20091224130604/http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D.txt NASA Data]
*[http://www.ipcc.ch/ IPCC]
*[https://web.archive.org/web/20120716180754/http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html NOAA data]
*[https://web.archive.org/web/20100806173622/http://dels-old.nas.edu/climatechange/ National Academies of Science reports]
*[https://web.archive.org/web/20140312165041/http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.htm The Discovery of Global Warming], American Institute for Physics
*[http://royalsociety.org/policy/publications/2010/climate-change-summary-science/ Royal Society's Summary of the Science] and [http://royalsociety.org/policy/climate-change/reports-statements/ Policy Reports and Statements]
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7843186.stm New evidence on Antarctic warming]
*[http://forecast.uchicago.edu/ Open Climate Science 101], University of Chicago
*[http://deepclimate.org/ Deep Climate], coverage of climate issues and often features original research by noted denialist debunker John Mashey
*[http://www.realclimate.org/ RealClimate], and [http://www.realclimate.org/wiki/index.php?title=RC_Wiki its wiki]
*[https://web.archive.org/web/20160831101243/http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/main_climate_change.php World Meteorological Organization]
*[http://www.rand.org/blog/2012/03/evidence-for-climate-change-is-overwhelming.html Evidence for Climate Change is Overwhelming], RAND Corporation
*[https://web.archive.org/web/20160809060256/http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/energy/great-energy-challenge/global-footprints/ Four Ways to Look at Global Carbon Footprints], ''National Geographic''
*[http://www.vox.com/2014/9/11/6136605/chart-which-countries-are-decarbonizing-the-fastest Which countries are decarbonizing the fastest?], Vox

===Videos===
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjuGCJJUGsg A Statistically Representative Climate Change Debate] (feat. [[Bill Nye]])
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7udNMqRmqV8 Rear Admiral David W. Titley: I Was Formerly a Climate Skeptic]
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQlHaGhYoF0 Armstrong & Miller on Climate Change]
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snPdEl0Duoo Blue Man Group on Global Warming]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9h74DTdTlCk He's a Climate Change Denier]

===Combating global warming denial===
*[http://www.skepticalscience.com/what-scientists-should-talk-about-personal-stories.html What climate scientists should talk about: their personal stories], Skeptical Science (See also [http://ncse.com/news/2014/09/santer-97-hours-consensus-0015853 97 Hours of Consensus] and [http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/index/#Responses its denialist PRATT list])
*[http://www.skepticalscience.com/ Skeptical Science], another guide to denialist PRATTs handily organized by "difficulty level" of the science.
*[https://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/2008/07/how-to-talk-to-a-sceptic How to talk to a global warming denialist], Ill-Considered
*Other [[ScienceBlogs]] with regular AGW coverage: [http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/ Deltoid], [http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/ Stoat]
*[http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/climate-change-deniers-vs-the-consensus/ Interesting infographic comparison of debate points by both sides of the argument]
*[https://web.archive.org/web/20110716075457/http://theconversation.edu.au/pages/clearing-up-the-climate-debate Clearing Up the Climate Debate], 14-part series at The Conversation
*[http://boingboing.net/2014/05/30/neil-degrasse-tyson-this-is-t.html This is the difference between weather and climate change] (feat. [[Neil deGrasse Tyson]])
*[https://thebulletin.org/2014/06/did-climate-deniers-just-admit-they-dont-know-what-theyre-talking-about/ Did climate deniers just admit they don’t know what they're talking about?], Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
*[https://texasclimatenews.org/2014/01/13/how-newsweeks-global-cooling-story-got-its-legs/ How Newsweek's 'global cooling' story got its legs] - on how a 9-paragraph article in a 1975 issue of ''Newsweek'' armed denialists with bullshit arguments ever since.
*[http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-positives-negatives-intermediate.htm Positives and Negatives], Skeptical Science
*[http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21587224-all-means-question-climate-policies-facts-are-facts-stubborn-things By all means question climate policies. But facts are facts], ''The Economist''
*[http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/03/upshot/shattering-myths-to-help-the-climate.html?rref=upshot Shattering Myths to Help the Climate], ''The New York Times''
*[http://grist.org/series/skeptics/ Responses to the most common arguments used to deny Global Warming], ''Grist''
*[https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/climate-change-deniers-vs-the-consensus/ Infographic of climate change deniers vs consensus] from ''Information is Beautiful''. The person making the graph noted the extreme challenge of accessible information, with big difficulties finding information that is easily understood by the lay reader ''and'' is sourced in a link that hasn't been through link rot. This experience should highlight the core problems of scientists combating climate change denial. At the end of a site is a resource of information used to compile the graph.

===Ending global warming===
*[https://www.c2es.org/ Center for Climate and Energy Solutions], successor to the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/8338824.stm Tackling climate change with technology], BBC (a very brief overview of the pros and cons of technology that ''could'' be used to tackle climate change)
*[http://www.climatecentral.org/news/iea-co2-emissions-data-17459? IEA Shows How to Radically Reduce CO2], Climate Central
*[https://web.archive.org/web/20110420015237/http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/booklets/warming_world_final.pdf Warming World: Impacts by Degree], National Research Council
*[https://web.archive.org/web/20090923230715/http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_warming/climate-costs-of-inaction.pdf Climate Change in the US: Costs of Inaction], Union of Concerned Scientists

===[[Goat]]===
*[https://denialdepot.blogspot.com/ DenialDepot] (Yes, this [[Poe|is]] a parody blog)
*[https://web.archive.org/web/20160324114349/http://larvatusprodeo.net:80/archives/2009/08/the-rules/ The rules for providing evidence of AGW]

==Notes==
{{reflist|group=note|2|80%}}

==References==
{{reflist|2|80%}}

[[Category:Climatology]]
[[Category:Conspiracy theories]]
[[Category:Conservative deceit]]
[[Category:Denialism]]
[[Category:Environmentalism]]
[[Category:Futurism]]
[[Category:Global warming| ]]
[[Category:Neologisms]]
[[Category:Oligarchic escapes]]
[[Category:Political terms]]
[[Category:Science]]
[[Category:Pseudoscience]]

Categories: Climatology, Conspiracy theories, Conservative deceit, Denialism, Environmentalism, Futurism, Global warming, Neologisms, Oligarchic escapes, Political terms, Science, Pseudoscience