Science was wrong before

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{{cquote|Science is a liar sometimes!|||Mac, from ''Always Sunny'' <ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zgk8UdV7GQ0 "Science Is A Liar Sometimes"]</ref>}}
The phrase "'''science was wrong before'''" (or variations thereof, such as "'''science has been wrong in the past'''", "'''science is only human'''", "'''science keeps changing'''", or "'''science is not infallible'''") is a fallacious technique used in order to reject or disparage a current [[scientific consensus]], especially on topics such as [[evolution]] or [[global warming]]. It usually works like this:
{{cquote|'''Alice:''' A scientific consensus has built around [[theory]] X and it is supported by many lines of robust [[evidence]].<br/>
'''Bob:''' Ah, but [[science]] has been wrong before. Like bloodletting. So how can you be sure it's right this time?}}

The "science was wrong before" gambit exemplifies both the [[continuum fallacy]] and the [[nirvana fallacy]]. It is a sister-fallacy to "[[media was wrong before]]".

==Flaws==
[[File:The Structure of Scientific Revolutions 2nd edition Thomas Kuhn.jpg|thumb|The Structure of Scientific Revolutions 2nd edition, [[Thomas Kuhn]]]]
{{cquote|[W]hen people thought the [[Flat Earth|earth was flat]], they were wrong. When people thought the [[earth]] was spherical, they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the earth is flat, then your view is [[Wronger than wrong|wronger than both of them put together]].|||[[Isaac Asimov]]<ref name="relativityofwrong">Isaac Asimov, [https://archive.fo/TEUrX The Relativity of Wrong]. The Skeptical Inquirer, Fall 1989, Vol. 14, No. 1, Pp. 35-44.</ref>}}
[[File:Scientific method.PNG|thumb|left|The [[scientific method]].]]

Usually (or at least often) "science was wrong before" is used to defend the existence of a ''[[Falsifiability|disproven]]'' phenomenon — [[alternative medicine]], [[perpetual motion]], [[crank]] [[Theory of Everything|theories of everything]], [[faster-than-light travel]]… the list is really endless for where this has been applied before. The usual examples of science being wrong (like the [[geocentric]] worldview that "science" used to hold) were theories that were in no way disprovable ''at the time'', much in the way that [[string theory]] cannot be readily disproved at ''this'' time. Many alternative medical practices, on the other hand, have been carefully shown to be utterly ineffective in one study after another — no additional information will suddenly contradict these results. When used like this, the "science was wrong before" trope is effectively like suggesting that our observations that [[gravity]] is an attractive force are ''wrong'', because one day in the future we ''might just'' see something go floating up instead of falling down, and [[Non sequitur|therefore]] [[homeopathy]] works.

So while it is true that several believed-to-be-true theories turned out to be wrong, that doesn't mean that theories that have already been proven wrong might suddenly turn out to be right, or that all theories with an overwhelming scientific consensus will necessarily turn out to be wrong.

===Missing the point===
[[File:240724175 10227181076779139 8654300658544882283 n.jpg|thumb|right|This is pretty easy to understand.<ref group=note>Totally unrelated: one word in this meme is misspelled. If you can find out in less than 10 seconds, you've shown that you actually paid attention in English class.</ref>]]
{{cquote|Scientific knowledge is often transitory: some (but not all) of what we find is made obsolete, or even falsified, by new findings. That is not a weakness but a strength, for our best understanding of phenomena will alter with changes in our way of thinking, our tools for looking at nature, and what we find in nature itself. Any "knowledge" incapable of being revised with advances in data and human thinking does not deserve the name of knowledge.|||[[Jerry Coyne]], ''Faith Versus Fact: Why Science and Religion are Incompatible'' (2015)}}
The logic behind this argument is [[fallacious]] in a number of ways. Primarily it misrepresents how science actually works by [[framing|forcing]] it into a [[false dichotomy|binary conception]] of "right" and "wrong". To describe outdated or discredited theories as "wrong" misses a major subtlety in science: discarded theories aren't really ''wrong'', they just fail to explain new evidence, and more often than not the new theory to come along is almost the same as the old one, but with some extensions, caveats, or alternatives.<ref group=note>Consider the mathematical constant [[pi]]. The value 3.14159 and the latest value calculated to millions of digits are both, in a sense, "wrong", but it would be absurd to say that mathematics doesn't know any more about pi than it did 2000 years ago. The currently calculated value of pi may be still ''absolutely'' "wrong", but it is many times ''more true'' than previous values. Similarly, though science may never know The Truth™, it certainly knows ''more'' now than it did hundreds of years ago.</ref> Often enough, these "new" theories are already in existence and just waiting in the wings, ready for new evidence to come along and differentiate them. This is well exemplified in [[Thomas Kuhn]]'s writing on scientific revolutions — a body of work that has been co-opted by many [[cranks]].

For example, take geocentrism. One of the strongest arguments against [[heliocentrism]] was the apparent lack of stellar [[parallax]] (or an apparent shift in the position of the [[star]]s from season to season). Because there was no evidence, Greek [[astronomer]]s assumed either that the stars were fixed in the sky (geocentrism), or that they were ''so far away'' that parallax was not noticeable. For almost 2000 years, there was no evidence for parallax, and it was not until the 1800s that parallax was proven to be correct and geocentrism soundly quashed. 

Another example: the [[quantum theory]] doesn't explain gravity, but it does not invalidate the [[Schrödinger's cat|Schrödinger equation]] or the quantisation of [[energy]]; it merely says that the current formulation of the theory is incomplete and there are modifications to quantum theory already being formulated, ready for when the next big leap in observational evidence occurs. 

That science can be "wrong" in this way is a ''feature'', not a bug, as one of the differences between science and [[pseudoscience]] is that science builds upon itself, whereas pseudoscience [[PRATT|rails on one claim and doesn't let up]], despite evidence to the contrary.<ref group=note>For instance, homeopaths will often cite an example of evidence disproving a previously-held scientific theory, and say that therefore people should believe in homeopathy – despite the fact that the scientific evidence overwhelmingly shows homeopathy to be ineffective. In other words, evidence against a mainstream theory is valid, but evidence against an unconventional one (such as homeopathy) [[Special pleading|is apparently not]]. (It's like pseudoscientists are more concerned about competing theories being correct than their own theories being wrong… probably because they're [[confirmation bias|entirely willing]] to resort to [[Escape hatch|dirty]] [[Moving the goalposts|tricks]] to [[handwave]] away any evidence that suggests that their theories are wrong.)</ref> These pseudoscientists present "science" as a monolithic entity with no differentiation between different sciences and the uncertainties and overlaps associated with each field. For example, an [[economic]] study of the [[minimum wage]] that uses the scientific method cannot be [[Reproducibility|replicated]] as easily as, say, a basic [[chemistry]] experiment that can be repeated in a lab — like finding the boiling point of a chemical. Thus, the economic study may not be "wrong", but has a lower degree of certainty attached to it than the chemistry experiment. Inability to make this distinction is often the result of the failure to think in a [[Bayesian]] fashion, in which the subtleties of errors are more accurately appreciated. Thus, the "science was wrong before" argument conflates different types of errors within science, confusing incompleteness of theories with being ''outright'' wrong. This, as [[Isaac Asimov]] called it in his essay ''The Relativity of Wrong'',<ref name=relativityofwrong /> is a form of being [[wronger than wrong]].

===Basic logical flaws===
But more than just being a complete misrepresentation of science, claiming that "science was wrong before" is flawed at even the basic logical level. First, this phrase can be considered a ''[[non sequitur]]'' or [[red herring]] because it usually has ''nothing'' to do with the subject at hand. For example, that {{wpl|phlogiston}} was wrong has no bearing on whether or not evolution is correct, and whether [[neutrino]]s may travel [[speed of light|faster than light]] has absolutely no relevance to homeopathy,<ref name="homeopathy">[http://gaia-health.com/gaia-blog/2011-09-23/subnuclear-particles-may-move-faster-than-light-who-says-homeopathy-cant-work/ Gaia-Health.com - Subnuclear Particles May Move Faster Than Light. Who Says Homeopathy Can’t Work?]</ref> as that is already governed by [[evidence for homeopathy|a certain evidence base]]. 

This is also a [[false dichotomy]]; someone using the argument is apparently suggesting that all science and [[rationalist]] thought must be perfectly correct the first time '''or''' their own selected ''[[woo]]-du-jour'' must be correct. Using a ''[[reductio ad absurdum]]'', the argument can apply to ''any and all'' forms of science and technology. (If [[hypotheses]] and theories which have been tested time and time again and been proven correct can be "wrong", what does that say about unproven, or even disproven, claims?) Therefore, there would be no way to test the validity of any claims, at all. But no one would say, "I'm not going to drive in a [[car]]! Science has been wrong before!" If "science has been wrong", and this disproves the effectiveness of earwax, doubly does it disprove the effectiveness of [[Ear candling|ear candles]].

For these reasons, "science was wrong before" is an objection that is [[not even wrong]], and tends to be used as a last-ditch [[escape hatch]] when the crank has run out of concrete objections or [[talking point]]s.

===The Bible was wrong before===
According to some Christians, [[But that was the Old Testament|the Old Testament was wrong before]] and needed to be "corrected" by the [[New Testament]]. Hence, if one accepts the premise of the "Science Was Wrong Before" argument, then one would have to conclude that The Bible cannot be trusted because it, too, was wrong before.  

If you point this out to Christians who say "science was wrong before," they might respond by asserting that [[Special pleading|The Bible should not be held to the same standard as science]].

==Uses and examples==
[[File:Sir Isaac Newton (1643-1727).jpg|thumb|right|165px|[[Isaac Newton]]'s formulation of gravity was superseded by [[general relativity]], therefore my [[water powered car]] works… wait, ''what?'']]
* The "science was wrong before" [[canard]] seems to be particularly popular among [[alternative medicine]] woomeisters, as they can easily point to any failed medication or treatment ({{wpl|Vioxx}} is one of the most commonly used,<ref>A good example of this: [http://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/index.php/anti-vaccine-propaganda-from-sharyl-attkisson-of-cbs-news-2/ Anti-vaccine propaganda from Sharyl Atkisson of CBS News], Science-Based Medicine</ref> but {{wpl|thalidomide}} works well too<ref>[http://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/index.php/oh-yeah-thalidomide-wheres-your-science-now/ Oh Yeah? Thalidomide! Where's Your Science Now?] Science-Based Medicine</ref>) and say "Look, science was wrong before, so buy my [[quackery]]!" Some woo-meisters take this to extreme lengths and reject the scientific method entirely.<ref group=note>See [[NaturalNews]] for an egregious example of this.</ref>
* [[Creationist]]s usually use it in reference to the [[Piltdown Man]] — though this is rife with many problems, not least of all the fact that it was exposed as a [[hoax]] ''by'' science and not by, say, creationists.
* [[Free energy]] types love it as well. It tends to play into [[cold fusion]] and other [[free energy suppression]] [[conspiracy theories]].
* The "science was wrong before" gambit appeared [[Speed of light#Neutrino observations in 2011|when neutrinos were suspected of travelling faster than light]]. Homeopaths played it perfectly straight,<ref name="homeopathy" /> while some [[Above Top Secret]] posters seemed to indicate it would change our thinking of [[UFO]]s and other phenomena.<ref>[http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread758453/pg1 Above Top Secret — "'Light-speed' neutrinos point to new physical reality"]</ref>
* Once upon a time, a long, long time ago, around the [[Middle Ages]], Western scientific consensus endorsed and relied on Biblical revelation and Christian tradition — but then it got hijacked by [[Secular|godless]] [[Materialism|materialist]] [[Age of Enlightenment|Enlightenment]] [[Atheism|atheists]]. So "science" (whatever that means) was '''right''' before. But then became wrong. But will become right again when [[Creation science|Creation "Scientists"]] triumph due to the [[Philosophy of science|self-correcting nature of "science"]]. So "science" changes. QED.

===Failing at even being fallacious===
Oftentimes, extremely factually-challenged (or [[Intellectual dishonesty|intellectually dishonest]]) [[cranks]] will spin an [[urban legend]], [[myth]], or misinterpretation of a historical event as a case where "Science was wrong before". These are cases where not only is the logic flawed, but the "examples" themselves are factually incorrect:
* "Science was wrong before" is often found alongside the [[Galileo gambit]]. The obvious problem here is that Galileo was persecuted by the [[Catholic Church]], not by "science". There was also the crucial detail that Galileo had ''evidence'' to back up his ideas.
* In many cases, old theories were not proven wrong, but only shown to be incomplete. For example, the discovery of quantum mechanics didn't prove classical or [[Isaac Newton|Newtonian]] mechanics entirely wrong, but it did show that classical mechanics did not hold true in every case.
* A common talking point among [[global warming denier]]s is the so-called prediction of "[[global cooling]]" in the 1970s. There were in fact scientists who argued for global cooling; however, a survey of the [[scientific journal|literature]] as a whole shows that the majority of papers published even back then argued for warming.<ref>Thomas C. Peterson, William M. Connolley, and John Fleck. [http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1 The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus.] ''Bulletin of the American Meterological Society'', Sep. 2008, pp. 1325-1337.</ref><ref>[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU_AtHkB4Ms Anatomy of a myth], [[Potholer54]]</ref>
* Paul Ehrlich's [[Cornucopian#The Population Bomb|''The Population Bomb'']] is often invoked to [[handwave]] away any concerns about [[overpopulation]] or sometimes even ''all'' [[environmental]] issues.
* [[Anti-environmentalism|Anti-environmentalists]] in general love to abuse this gambit. Need to write a good [[bullshit]] tract on global warming? Dig up old denialist literature on any recent environmental problem ([[acid rain]], [[DDT]], [[ozone layer|ozone depletion]], take your pick) and use it to announce that "science was wrong before." Anything by [[S. Fred Singer]] should [[Expert for hire|do the trick]].

==Realism versus anti-realism in science==
While "science was wrong before" is most often used in service of science [[denialism]], though superficially similar, it should not be confused with a traditional argument found in the [[philosophy of science]] that is leveled against scientific realism, namely, the pessimistic meta-induction from past falsification of accepted scientific theories, which roughly goes like this: Since our best scientific theories have in the past been shown to be largely false, it is probable that our current accepted scientific theories are in large measure false. Therefore, we ought to be scientific anti-realists.<ref>Laudan, Larry "A Confutation of Convergent Realism", Philosophy of Science, Vol (48), No (1), (March 1981): 19-49.</ref> The realist vs. anti-realist debate concerns whether the theoretical entities (e.g. micro-physical particles, fields, etc.) postulated by our best scientific theories correspond to real entities or whether said entities, and the wider [[mathematical]] framework in which they are situated, are merely [[empirical]]ly adequate (i.e., computational tools via which we make successful predictions).<ref>For further detail, see the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy entries for [http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/scientific-realism/ scientific realism], [http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/constructive-empiricism/ constructive empiricism] and [http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/scientific-underdetermination/ scientific underdetermination.]</ref> 

Needless to say, this debate in the philosophy of science is much more complex and nuanced than shouting "Phlogiston! Hah, where is your science now?"

==See also==
*[[Chewbacca Defense]]
*[[Galileo gambit]]
*[[Just a theory]]
*[[Science stopper]]
*[[Uncertainty tactic]]
*[[Science doesn't know everything]]
*[[Reproducibility]]

==External links==
*[https://archive.fo/NOpg6 Science has been wrong before], Critical Thinking Association ([[UK]])
*[http://skeptico.blogs.com/skeptico/2005/11/science_wrong.html The appeal to "Science was wrong before"], Skeptico
*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/mn/absolute_authority/ Absolute Authority], [[Less Wrong]]
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zgk8UdV7GQ0 Science Is A Liar Sometimes, a parody of this fallacy from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia]

==Notes==
{{reflist|group=note|2|80%}}

==References==
{{reflist|2|80%}}

{{logfal}}

[[Category:Arguments against evidence-based medicine]]
[[Category:Arguments from ignorance]]
[[Category:Assessing pseudoscience]]
[[Category:Clichéed sayings]]
[[Category:Creationist claims]]
[[Category:Denialism]]
[[Category:Fallacious arguments]]
[[Category:Philosophy of science]]
[[Category:Science]]

Categories: Arguments against evidence-based medicine, Arguments from ignorance, Assessing pseudoscience, Clichéed sayings, Creationist claims, Denialism, Fallacious arguments, Philosophy of science, Science