Moore's Law

[[File:Transistor Count and Moore's Law - 2011.svg|thumb|right|165px|Transistor counts for integrated circuits plotted against their dates of introduction. The curve shows Moore's law &mdash; the doubling of transistor counts every two years. The y axis is logarithmic, so the line corresponds to exponential growth.]]{{technav}}
'''Moore's Law''' states that the number of transistors that can be placed on an integrated circuit (IC) grows exponentially. The statement was first made by Gordon E. Moore {{lived|1929|2023}}, co-founder of Intel, in an April 1965 paper<ref>[ftp://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_Releases/Gordon_Moore_1965_Article.pdf Cramming more components onto integrated circuits]</ref> in ''Electronics Magazine''. Titled "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits", the article describes how Moore expects the number of transistors to double every year. In 1975 Moore adjusted this to doubling every two years. This is why today's desktop is over 64,000 times more powerful than say, the first {{wpl|IBM PC}}<ref>2<sup>((2013-1981) ÷ 2)</sup> = 65,536</ref> and that therefore today's desktop is about 64,000 times <b><i>better</i></b> than that POS IBM, your (scientific) calculator, Walkman, record player, cassette machine, record and tape collection, TV, Polaroid, instamatic, photo album, Atari, and [[Dungeons and Dragons]] books all put together. Not 64 times better, not 640 times better, not even 6,400 times better, but <b><i>64,000</i></b> ''frickin' times better<span style="font-size:80%">!!</span style>&nbsp;&nbsp;—and you know what, in 16 years it'll be even 1 million times better<span style="font-size:80%">!!</span style> <sup>''(say what?!?)</sup>'' [[Computing woo|Can you diggit!?]]'' 

Proponents of the theory of [[singularity|technological singularity]] often cite Moore's Law to defend or support their arguments.{{who}} This is based on a profound misunderstanding of the "law"; Moore's law is not a (fundamental) law of nature but merely an observation at the rough pace of development of computers ''so far''.

At a certain point Moore's Law will run up against the atomic structure of matter. Circuit components will be so small they are comparable in size to atoms. At this scale, quantum tunneling becomes a lot more likely. For the purposes of circuitry, that means it is harder to control a signal. You could make computers larger, but this only works up to a point due to the finite speeds at which electrons and photons can travel. Most computers today rely on electric signals (flow of electrons) through conducting wires but engineers are exploring the possibilities of optical signals as well, given the success of fiber optics. [[Computer#Quantum computer|Quantum computing]] is an attempt to bypass this problem by taking advantage of quantum uncertainties. Note that this is a proper use of the world "quantum", unlike what you see from [[Deepak Chopra]].

The law originally posited by Moore pertained to both the number of transistors per integrated circuit (IC) ''and'' the decreased cost of each IC. Using this definition, the law has continued apace for the number of transistors, but not the cost of each IC, which have been increasing in recent years. While the trendnumber of transistors is expected to continue because ICs are now packed in three dimensions, it is expected to cease exponential growth starting in the 2030s due to physical limits at the atomic scale, according to IC designer Tsu-Jae King Liu.<ref name>''More Everything Forever: AI Overlords, Space Empires, and Silicon Valley's Crusade to Control the Fate of Humanity'' by Adam Becker (2025) Basic Books. ISBN 1541619595.</ref>{{rp|60-63}}

==A self-fulfilled prophecy==
Just calling something a "law" doesn't automatically mean that it ''ought'' to happen or that it ''must'' happen. It should be obvious that it is only through the everyday efforts of the people in the tech industry that current processing power "keeps up" with the law rather than ''because'' of the law — although economic predictions are routinely made in the industry on the basis of the law. Incidents that have significant impacts upon humanity could affect the how well the law is fulfilled.

A common misunderstanding of Moore's Law is that it's all about [[Megahertz myth|"clock speeds"]]. Moore's Law is only about the number of components on an IC. A microprocessor can become more powerful by being able to perform more instructions in a single clock cycle. Moore's Law also applies to the sizes of RAM and permanent data storage such as solid state drives.

==Posited ways to extend Moore's Law==
===3D integrated circuits===
The current semiconductor manufacturing approach follows the assertion that Moore's Law can be extended by arranging transistors in a 3D configuration.

===Photonic transistors===
Another way to extend Moore's Law would be to use [[Photon|photonic]] transistors or switches instead of electronic transistors.

==See also==
*[[Singularity]]

==External links==
*{{wpl|Wirth's law}} (why your computer ''isn't'' 64,000 times better than an IBM PC)

==References==
{{reflist}}

[[Category:Computer science]]
[[Category:Science]]
[[Category:Technology]]

Categories: Computer science, Science, Technology