Precognition

{{bronze}}{{psychic}}
'''Precognition''' refers to a type of [[extra-sensory perception]] which would (if it exists) allow a person to perceive future events. In the [[New Age]] world as well as the world of [[con artist]]s, such "gifts" are possessed by only the select, special few, and are therefore, likely to be pricey to see "in action".

Precognition is similar to [[clairvoyance]], and makes a great narrative device because it brings up ideas of [[fate]], destiny, and [[free will]] &mdash; so people can be easily attracted to the idea. In the real world, it is, of course, [[bullshit]] [[pseudoscience]].

Unless it's not, {{USERNAME}}…

==Explanations of anecdotal evidence==
Most "evidence" for precognition tends to come from [[anecdotes]] rather than any actual data &mdash; indeed, properly [[Experimental control|controlled]] trials show no effect. People who don't [[scientific method|do this for a living]] &mdash; such as dear ol' Aunt Gladis who says she can predict the future &mdash; tend to rely on [[confirmation bias]] and [[selective reporting]], which are both effects of the human mind recalling and confirming some instances and forgetting and disconfirming others.

That is to say, dear Aunt Gladis had a dream one night that a plane would crash and the next day one did. So she says to herself "I can predict the future". And if it should happen again, for instance she dreams her son would get sick and he does, that reinforces her belief that she is "seeing the future." However, what she conveniently ''forgets'' are the thousands of other dreams that "predicted" the future, which never played out in the real world. This is because cases that don't agree aren't particularly interesting or notable &mdash; no one remarks at a ''lack'' of co-incidence. Furthermore, the worldwide frequency of plane crashes is about once every 2 or 3 days,<ref>[http://www.ibtimes.com/how-many-planes-crash-every-year-how-many-people-die-plane-crashes-chart-1560554 How Many Planes Crash Every Year, And How Many People Die In Plane Crashes?] By Lisa Mahapatra (03/10/14 AT 3:17 PM) ''IBT''.</ref> so there's an excellent chance that there will be a plane crash within 1 day of dreaming about one.

So should Aunt Gladis be thinking of a dear old friend and then a minute later they happen to call her, she'll remark upon it, but if the friend calls her out of the blue when she ''wasn't'' thinking of them, she'll not mention the ''lack'' of a premonition. The confirmation bias effect is pretty much responsible for ''all'' reports of [[psychic powers]], from [[mediumship]] to [[remote viewing]]. Remarkably, even apparently scientific tests can fall foul of these effects. When someone is asked to exhibit some form of [[telepathic]] power and they get it wrong, the statistical context is often brought up in a certain way to say that this sort of incorrect guessing is inevitable due to chance, or that not everyone is psychic. On the other hand, if they happen to guess correctly, the [[statistical]] context focuses on the odds that the individual has defied in order to make their prediction. For example, someone correctly guessing several [[Zener cards]] in a row has defied 100 to 1 odds for correct guessing, and this is hyped even though it is a plain [[improbable things happen|statistical possibility]].

==Mythological precognition==
Most [[mythologies]] throughout the world address precognition in some way. Someone, usually a Hero archetype, or someone from the 'divine' realm will warn the world about some impending disaster they foresaw in a dream, or that they were warned about by some kind of mysterious otherworldly voice. Mythical figures have the added advantage of generally focusing their precognition on things that are so far in the future, no one alive can call their bluff. The Christian [[Bible]] calls it [[prophecy]] if it's from the acceptable [[God]], and "divination" if it's from a big bad ugly god. Not surprisingly, divination is a [[sin]], but prophecy is the work of "[[Holy]] Men". If the prophecy comes true, the old fart is hailed as a man of God. If the prophecy does not come true, it is put down as something which has a future fulfillment after the [[rapture]].

[[Jesus]] predicted that [[Peter the Apostle|Peter]] would deny him three times, and that [[Judas Iscariot|Judas]] would betray him. Those two, at least if you follow the [[Censorship|redacted]] version of the scene, came true.

==Folk beliefs==
In [[Finland]], there is a tradition of ''etiäinen'', which is a ghost-like [[Bilocation|doppelgänger]] that precedes the arrival of a real person, or more generally, any premonition.<ref>http://www.skepsis.fi/ihmeellinen/etiainen.html</ref><ref name="astro">https://www.astro.fi/forum/index.php?action=printpage;topic=638.0</ref> In [[Norway]], the same entity is called ''vardøger''. An etiäinen is usually heard, rarely seen. Etiäinens can for example make noise in the hallway in the same manner the real person will when he arrives. Like [[ghost]]s, etiäinens are spontaneous and can cause anxiety. Unlike a ghost, which is usually associated with a particular location, an etiäinen can occur anywhere. Besides the mundane event of arrival, a recently deceased person can appear as an etiäinen.<ref>https://keskustelu.suomi24.fi/t/3860516/etiainen</ref>

More generally, the Finnish word ''etiäinen'' also refers to premonition. Even just a vague feeling that something particular will happen in the future can be called ''etiäinen'', if it appears suddenly and spontaneously. This is similar to ''déjà vu'', except that the event is in the future instead of currently occurring, i.e. an experience of "remembering the future". The experience can be vivid and very convincing. Etiäinen is still a living tradition; you can have an "etiäinen" about a SMS message for example.<ref name="astro" />

This is all in line with the fact that awake auditory hallucinations and mild delusions are not particularly rare. While they are common in mentally ill people, they still occur in persons identified as sane. Transient auditory hallucinations featuring recently deceased family members occur in the majority of the population. Research of these phenomena is nevertheless difficult, because they are only individual experiences, which cannot be quantified or experimentally proven.<ref>https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-9331665</ref>

Etiäinens aren't really something you could commercialize, because they can't be made to appear on demand. Nevertheless, when clairvoyants are introduced, the ability to see etiäinens is treated as evidence of "psychic powers". These claims are typically unproven or unprovable.

==Examples==
===Hitler was psychic===
British 
historian
 Holocaust denier [[David Irving]] believes [[Adolf Hitler|The Führer himself]] foresaw that little David would turn up and specially chose David to write about him.<ref>http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/david-irving-hitler-appointed-me-his-biographer-1366464.html</ref> Despite Hitler having such wonderful psychic powers, he overlooked the catastrophic defeat that followed from invading [[Poland]] and starting [[World War II]]? Well, it must be pleasant to think that you are specially chosen by 
God
 the Führer and little David might not want to spoil things by thinking it through.

===Princess Diana===
[[Medium]] and general [[psychic]] [[Sally Morgan]] foresaw the road accident that killed [[Princess Diana]] a year before it happened but didn't warn the princess. Sally's powers weren't quite working, and so she thought the victim was [[Elizabeth II|the queen]], though she didn't get round to warning the queen either.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20150415024806/http://www.merseysideskeptics.org.uk/2009/09/psychic-predicts-princess-dis-death-twelve-years-too-late/ Psychic Predicts Princess Di’s Death, Twelve Years Too Late]</ref>

==Science and precognition==
But wait! If precognition is possible, then it must have been studied, and there must be something to it, right? Of course, right &mdash; if by precognition, you mean a fraction of a second before you are conscious of your choice, a computer using live [[MRI|fMRI]] can "see" your choice being made, and predict it before you make that choice.<ref>[http://www.sciencemag.org/content/306/5695/447.short Neuroeconomics, The Consilience of Brain and Decision]</ref> Given that this prediction is made a fraction of a second before the predicted event, its utility is limited.

==See also==
*[[Improbable things happen]]
*[[List of predictions of the end of the world]]
*[[Nostradamus]]
*[[Prophecy]]
*[[Psychic]]

==References==
{{reflist|2}}

[[Category:Pseudoscience]]
[[Category:Psychic powers]]

Categories: Pseudoscience, Psychic powers