Dewey Defeats Truman

[[File:DeweyDefeatsTruman.jpg‎|thumb|right|165px|Harry Truman, the 
loser
 victor. (Alternate headline: "I GOT [[Nuke|NUKES]]")]]{{uspolitics}}
'''Dewey Defeats Truman''' was an infamous newspaper headline, printed (or rather, ''released'') on November 3, 1948, the day after the 1948 [[United States]] presidential election, declaring that incumbent [[Harry S. Truman]] ([[Democratic Party|D]]) lost to challenger [[Thomas Dewey|Thomas E. Dewey]] ([[Republican Party|R]]), then-governor of [[Fun:New York|New York]]. The opposite had in fact occurred, thus making the ''Chicago Daily Tribune'' a source of ridicule ever since.

==One part newspaper...==
The ''Chicago Tribune'' was (and still is) a notably [[Political spectrum#Conservatism|conservative]] Republican newspaper, sometimes bluntly bashing non-conservatives.<ref group=note>At one point they called Truman a "nincompoop," which was, by the standards of the time, almost a cuss word.</ref> During the election, many of its workers were on [[strike]]. With resources as thin as they were, and having recently switched to a more time-consuming printing method (which involved first typewriting the content, then photographing it, and then ''finally'' engraving it onto the printing press...phew!) the remaining staff kicked into overdrive, printing the next day's edition unusually early. Thus, they relied on only the very, very earliest election returns, polls, and a [[prediction]] from a [[Pundit|leading political analyst]], all of which indicated that Dewey would win.

==One part election hubris...==
The 1948 election was actually quite close. Dewey was heavily favored, and many expected him to win, as Truman had to fight off not one, but ''two'' third-party splinters from the Democratic Party: [[Henry A. Wallace]]'s leftist campaign on the Progressive Party ticket competing with him for the [[trade union|labor]] vote, and [[Strom Thurmond]] running as a pro-[[segregation]] "[[Dixiecrat|States' Rights Democrat]]" to protest the national Democratic Party adopting a [[civil rights]] plank, drawing away votes in the "[[The South|Solid South]]". Compounding that was the transition to a peacetime economy after [[World War II]], which left the U.S. in a technical [[recession]] (with shortages in [[consumer]] goods and spikes in [[inflation]]).

Dewey's only major stumbling block was that he was too cautious with his image, leading to rather hilariously [[Mitt Romney|vague, broad, and vapid speeches]]<ref group=note>Unlike Romney, however, Dewey didn't shed his [[Political spectrum#Centrism|moderate]] beliefs to appeal to the [[Robert Taft|Tafts]].</ref> that could be summarized into a mere sentence and not lose any content. Despite this, numerous contemporary polls reinforced the gut feeling that Dewey would win commandingly. Truman, however, could rely on his association with his popular (and late) predecessor, [[Franklin D. Roosevelt]], and seeing to the end of [[World War II]]. Not to mention that he could very easily exploit Dewey's strategy for his own gain.

==...And voilà, a gaffe!==
As it turned out, the polls and early returns were all wrong,<ref>[http://www.math.upenn.edu/~deturck/m170/wk4/lecture/case2.html Case Study: The 1948 Presidential Election], UPenn</ref> and Truman pulled through in what is still considered the biggest electoral upset in American history.<ref group = note>But barely, at least in the {{wpl|United States presidential election, 1948#Results by state|popular vote|.}} A difference of only a few thousand votes in several swing states, namely [[Fun:Ohio|Ohio]], [[Fun:Illinois|Illinois]], and [[Fun:California|California]], would've been all it took to make Dewey president instead.</ref> The ''Tribune'' eventually managed to correct their fatal error in a later-in-the-day edition, but it was too late; there were already 150,000 copies circulated, leading to the famous photo above. In fact, they were not the only newspaper to call the election prematurely in favor of Dewey; several others across the country also did the same. None, however, was nearly as high-profile or ''prolific'' as the ''Tribune'''s. A great lesson in [[journalism]] learned, hopefully.

==Attempted amends==
The ''Tribune'' would eventually warm up to their mistake and perhaps laugh at it. As the 25th anniversary of the incident neared, the ''Tribune'' planned to give Truman a plaque with a replica of the headline, as some sort of apology, or something. Sadly, Truman died in December 1972, before they could give it to him.

==See also==
*[[Spotlight fallacy]]
*[[Insignificance#In politics|Insignificance]]

==External links==
*[http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/DeweyDefeatsTruman Dewey Defeats Truman], [[TV Tropes]]
*[http://jnci.oxfordjournals.org/content/101/16/1157.2.full Dewey Defeats Truman and Cancer Statistics], why it's vital to get an accurate [[sample size|sample]] before drawing a conclusion. (Yes, this has widespread applications.)
*[http://www.deweydefeatstruman.com/original-dewey-defeats-truman-newspaper-for-sale-1.htm Yes, original copies still exist and they don't come cheap.] If you manage to find one, [[RationalWiki:Site support|act accordingly]].

==Notes==
{{reflist|group=note}}

==References==
{{reflist}}

[[Category:Journalism]]
[[Category:Media]]
[[Category:United States presidential elections]]
[[Category:United States history]]

Categories: Journalism, Media, United States presidential elections, United States history