2018 United States midterm elections

[[File:Official photo of Speaker Nancy Pelosi in 2019.jpg|thumb|right|165px|[[Nancy Pelosi]] became Speaker of the House once more after her party won a majority in the chamber.]]{{Bronze}}
{{Uspolitics}}The '''2018 midterm elections''' were a series of local, state, and federal elections held in the [[United States]] on 6 November 2018. These included elections for [[United States Congress|all 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 35 US Senators]], 39 state and territorial governorships, and the majority of state legislative seats.

The 2018 Midterms have been widely described as a “blue wave” on account of the major gains made by the [[Democratic Party]]. Notably, Democrats won 40 net seats in the House of Representatives, giving the party control of the chamber.<ref>[https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrats-gain-40-house-seats-nbc-projects-tj-cox-wins-n944986 Democrats gain 40 House seats, as NBC projects TJ Cox wins California's 21st District], ''NBC News'', December 6, 2018</ref> At the state level, Democrats took full control of the governments of [[Fun:Colorado|Colorado]],<ref>[https://coloradosun.com/2018/11/06/the-entire-history-of-which-political-party-controls-colorado-government-in-one-chart/ Democrats will control Colorado’s government for the first time since 1936. Here’s a chart showing historical trends.], ''The Colorado Sun'', November 6, 2018</ref> [[Fun:New Mexico|New Mexico]],<ref>[https://www.lcsun-news.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/07/democrats-win-every-statewide-race-new-mexico/1920785002/ Democrats win every statewide race in New Mexico], ''Las Cruces Sun News'', November 7, 2018</ref> [[Fun:Illinois|Illinois]],<ref>[https://www.chicagotribune.com/politics/ct-met-illinois-blue-wave-20181106-story.html Illinois takes deep blue dive as national Democrats hope for wave election], ''Chicago Tribune'', November 6, 2018</ref> [[Fun:Maine|Maine]],<ref>[https://bangordailynews.com/2018/11/07/news/democrats-surge-to-solid-control-of-maine-legislature/ Democrats surge to solid control of Maine Legislature], ''Bangor Daily News'', November 7, 2018</ref> [[Fun:New York|New York]],<ref>[https://nypost.com/2018/11/07/democrats-now-have-total-control-of-new-york-government/ Democrats now have total control of New York government], ''New York Post'', November 7, 2018</ref> and [[Fun:Nevada|Nevada]]. Democrats also won governors' races in [[Fun:Kansas|Kansas]],<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/06/us/laura-kelly-wins-kansas-governors-race.html Laura Kelly, a Kansas Democrat, Tops Kobach in Governor’s Race], ''New York Times'', November 6, 2018</ref> [[Fun:Michigan|Michigan]],<ref>[https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/michigan/governor Michigan governor election results], ''CNN'', November 7, 2018</ref> and [[Fun:Wisconsin|Wisconsin]]<ref>[https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/07/scott-walker-vs-tony-evers-wisconsin-governor-race-results-2018-965594 Democrat Tony Evers ousts Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker], ''Politico'', November 7, 2018</ref> while flipping both houses of the [[Fun:New Hampshire|New Hampshire]] state legislature,<ref>[https://dlcc.org/press/dlcc-and-nh-house-and-senate-democrats-flip-both-chambers/ DLCC and NH House and Senate Democrats Flip Both Chambers], ''DLCC'', November 6, 2018</ref> thereby breaking [[Republican Party|Republicans]]’ full control over those states’ governments.
Republicans had more success in the Senate, where Democrats were defending the vast majority (26 out of 35) of the seats up for election. <ref>[https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/13/politics/senate-democrats/index.html How Senate Democrats lost the battle but won the war in the 2018 election], ''CNN'', November 13, 2018</ref> Republicans expanded their majority by flipping Democratic-held seats in [[Fun:Florida|Florida]], [[Fun:Missouri|Missouri]], [[Fun:Indiana|Indiana]], and [[Fun:North Dakota|North Dakota]]. Democrats tempered GOP gains by flipping Republican-held seats in [[Fun:Arizona|Arizona]] and Nevada.<ref>[https://www.axios.com/full-list-2018-midterm-election-seats-flipped-34d99826-0929-41c6-a1f0-e4d02861c835.html Full list: 2018 midterm election seats that flipped], ''Axios'', November 21, 2018</ref>

As always with midterm elections, most people saw the 2018 Midterms as something of a referendum on the presidency (or rather the dumpster fire thereof) of [[Donald Trump]]. Given that the GOP generally did badly, most pundits have concluded that this meant most voters didn’t approve of Trump. Trump, however, apparently learned the opposite lesson. Inspired by Republicans’ modest gains in the Senate, he doubled down on his most absurd policies and rhetoric, notably by shutting down the federal government as leverage to get funding for a border wall. Republicans largely continued to support Trump, apparently having learned nothing from their midterm shellacking. However, Kansas maintained supermajorities, making it very hard for Democrats to veto bills. In turn, they gained supermajorities in both chambers in [[Fun:Maryland|Maryland]] and [[Fun:Vermont|Vermont]], allowing Democrats to override Republican vetoes.<ref>[https://www.marylandmatters.org/2018/11/29/reforming-the-maryland-democratic-party/ Reforming the Maryland Democratic Party], ''Maryland Matters'', November 29, 2018</ref><ref>[https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/12/how-vt-democrats-won-veto-proof-majority-and-pushed-gop-low/1920906002/ Vermont GOP's Statehouse blues: How Democrats, Progressives won a veto-proof House majority], ''Burlington Free Press'', November 12, 2018</ref>

==Precursors==
In the two years between Donald Trump’s election and the 2018 midterms, there were numerous special and off-year elections for positions throughout the United States. Democrats generally did well in these elections, portending serious trouble for the GOP. Democrats won notably in:
* '''The [[Fun:Virginia|Virginia]] governor’s election'''—In Virginia’s 2017 gubernatorial election, Democrat Ralph Northam decisively defeated Republican Ed Gillespie. While Northam’s victory by itself was not so surprising, given that Virginia already had a Democratic governor, his margin of victory was. Northam won the election by nine percentage points; by comparison, [[Hillary Clinton]] had only won Virginia by five points in the [[2016 U.S. presidential election|2016 presidential election]], while Northam’s predecessor, Democrat Terry McAuliffe, won by less than three points in the last gubernatorial election in 2013.<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-governor-election-gillespie-northam Virginia Election Results: Northam Defeats Gillespie in Governor Race], ''New York Times'', December 20, 2017</ref>
* '''Virginia legislative elections'''—In addition to governor, Virginia held elections for its lower legislative house, the House of Delegates. Democrats gained 15 net seats while tying in a 16th.<ref>[https://www.pilotonline.com/government/virginia/article_27cff870-385a-5d64-bb99-9004f0a59596.html 15 flipped House seats cost $19 million in Virginia's most expensive elections in 20 years], ''The Virginia Pilot'', January 29, 2018</ref> Republicans kept control of the chamber only when they held that 16th seat in a literal coin flip.<ref>[https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/01/04/drawing-today-decide-virginia-state-house-race-majority-party/1002910001/ And the winner is... Republican wins after name drawn from a bowl in Virginia House race], ''USA Today'', January 4, 2018</ref> The house of delegates later flipped in 2019, as did the senate.<ref>[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/democrats-flip-virginias-state-senate-close-in-on-house-too-2019-11-05 In stunner, Democrats flip both houses of Virginia’s state legislature], ''Market Watch'', November 5, 2019</ref>
* '''The [[Fun:Alabama|Alabama]] US Senate special election'''—After Senator [[Jeff Sessions]] became the US Attorney General, the state of Alabama held a special election to fill his Senate seat. The election was expected to be a Republican layup, until the primaries happened. Democrats nominated Doug Jones, a civil rights attorney and moderate Democrat who could appeal to voters across the political spectrum. Meanwhile, the GOP nominated [[Roy Moore]], a former judge whose [[racism]] and Christian [[fundamentalism]] were considered extreme even by Alabama standards. During the campaign, it was revealed that Roy Moore had a history of molesting teenage girls.<ref>[https://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-gop-senate-candidate-roy-moore-initiated-sexual-encounter-with-14-year-old-girl-when-he-was-32/ GOP Senate candidate accused of sexual encounter with minor], ''CBS News'', November 9, 2017</ref> Combined with strong turnout from Alabama’s large Black community, this scandal was enough to carry Jones to a narrow victory, making him the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Alabama since 1992.<ref>[https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/13/16770668/doug-jones-roy-moore-alabama-senate Doug Jones is the first Democrat to win an Alabama Senate seat in 25 years], ''Vox'', December 13, 2017</ref> However, the Republicans easily picked it back up with Tommy Tuberville in 2020.<ref>[https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/republicans-flip-alabama-senate-seat-as-tuberville-beats-jones Republicans Flip Alabama Senate Seat as Tuberville Beats Jones], ''Bloomber'', November 4, 2020</ref>
* '''The [[Fun:Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]] special congressional election'''—Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district held a special election on March 13, 2018 after its incumbent Republican representative, Tim Murphy, resigned over a scandal.<ref>[https://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/05/tim-murphy-resigns-from-congress-243510 Tim Murphy resigns from Congress], ''Politico'', October 5, 2017</ref> Despite the fact that this district voted for Trump by nearly 20 points in the 2016 presidential election, Democrat Conor Lamb managed to carry it narrowly.<ref>[https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/14/17109448/pennsylvania-special-election-conor-lamb-defeats-rick-saccone It’s official: Republican Rick Saccone concedes to Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania special election], ''Vox'', March 21, 2018</ref> More good news came from Pennsylvania when the Pennsylvania Supreme Court struck down Pennsylvania's notoriously [[gerrymander]]ed map, one of the worst in the nation, which paved the way for greater Democratic gains in the midterms.<ref>[https://www.pubintlaw.org/cases-and-projects/pennsylvania-redistricting-lawsuit/ Pennsylvania Redistricting Lawsuit], ''The Public Interest Law Center''</ref>
* '''The Wisconsin Supreme Court election'''—On 3 April 2018, liberal candidate Rebecca Dallet won a regularly-scheduled election to the Wisconsin Supreme Court. While the election was officially nonpartisan, Dallet was known to be a liberal candidate, openly declared herself to be anti-Trump, and was endorsed by Senator Tammy Baldwin, former Attorney General Eric Holder, and former [[Vice President of the United States|Vice President]] [[Joe Biden]].<ref>[https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/courts/rebecca-dallet-wins-10-year-term-on-wisconsin-supreme-court/article_1e5524f8-e10f-50f5-bb69-b0837c2307db.html Rebecca Dallet wins 10 year term on Wisconsin Supreme Court], ''Madison.com'', April 6, 2018</ref>
* '''Other results'''—On 7 November 2017, Democrat Phil Murphy was elected Governor of [[Fun:New Jersey|New Jersey]], giving Democrats full control of New Jersey’s government.<ref>[https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/07/democrat-phil-murphy-wins-new-jersey-governors-election.html Democrat Phil Murphy wins New Jersey governor’s election], ''CNBC'', November 7, 2017</ref><ref>[https://www.vice.com/en/article/ned4ez/democrats-win-full-control-of-new-jersey-state-government Democrats win full control of New Jersey state government], ''Vice News'', November 7, 2018</ref> The same night, Democrat Manka Dhingra won a special election to the [[Fun:Washington|Washington]] State Senate, giving Democrats control of that chamber and thus all Washington’s government.<ref>[https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/manka-dhingras-double-digit-lead-in-45th-district-senate-race-sends-message-to-trump-gov-inslee-says/ With Manka Dhingra’s Washington state Senate win, Democrats plot ambitious course in Olympia], ''Seattle Times'', November 8, 2017</ref>

In addition to election results, polls also suggested Republicans were in for a rough midterm cycle. ''[[FiveThirtyEight]]'' predicted that Democrats were likely to win between 36 and 39 seats in the House of Representatives,<ref>[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/#deluxe Forecasting the race for the House], ''FiveThirtyEight'', November 6, 2018</ref> with similarly bullish predictions from ''[[The Economist]]''<ref>[https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/05/24/whos-ahead-in-the-mid-term-race Who’s ahead in the mid-term race], ''The Economist'', November 2, 2018</ref> and [[CNN]].<ref>[https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/forecast Five Forecasts], ''CNN''</ref>

==US House results==
[[File:US House 2018.svg|thumb|right|400px|US House results by party: dark colors are gains, light colors are holds.]]
Democrats flipped 44 Republican-held seats in the US House of Representatives, while Republicans only won three Democratic-held seats. Democrats only needed to net 23 seats in order to take control of the chamber,<ref>[https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/31/nancy-pelosi-is-confident-democrats-will-gain-30-seats-flip-the-house.html Nancy Pelosi is confident the Democrats will gain 30 seats and flip the House], ''CNBC'', October 31, 2018</ref> which Republicans had held since the 2010 midterms. The Democrats’ most notable achievements include victories in:
* Kansas—Attorney and martial arts professional Sharice Davids won Kansas’ 3rd congressional district, defeating Republican incumbent Kevin Yoder.<ref>[https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/06/sharice-davids-wins-kansas-house-race-a-gain-for-democrats-nbc-news-projects.html Sharice Davids wins Kansas House race, a gain for Democrats: NBC News projects], ''CNBC'', November 6, 2018</ref> A lesbian, Davids is the first openly LGBTQ person to represent Kansas in Congress. Davids is also of Ho-Chunk descent, making her the first American Indian woman elected to Congress in US history, in tandem with Representative Deb Haaland of New Mexico.<ref>[https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/sharice-davids-lesbian-native-american-makes-political-history-kansas-n933211 Sharice Davids, a lesbian Native American, makes political history in Kansas], ''NBC News'', November 7, 2018</ref>
* Virginia—Democrats flipped Virginia’s 2nd, 7th, and 10th congressional districts, giving them control of seven of the Commonwealth’s 11 House seats. All three Democrats who flipped these seats—Elaine Luria, Abigail Spanberger, and Jennifer Wexton, respectively—are women.<ref>[https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/these-virginia-congresswomen-elect-made-history-just-dont-call-it-a-pink-wave/2018/11/12/3789ba72-e44d-11e8-ab2c-b31dcd53ca6b_story.html These Virginia congresswomen-elect made history. Just don’t call it a pink wave], ''Washington Post'', November 12, 2018</ref>
* [[Fun:California|California]]—Democrats flipped seven Republican-held seats in California, giving them control of a staggering 46 of the state’s 53 congressional seats. Notably, Democrats won every single congressional district in Orange County, California, a suburban county that was formerly one of the most consistently Republican in American history.<ref> [https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/18/california-democrats-sweep-house-seats-orange-county/2048696002/ Orange is the new blue: California Democrats sweep 7 House seats in former GOP stronghold], ''USA Today'', November 18, 2018</ref> However, since then, Mike Garcia won a May 2020 special election<ref>[https://www.rollcall.com/2020/05/13/republican-mike-garcia-wins-california-seat-as-democrat-concedes-in-special-election/ Republican Mike Garcia wins California seat as Democrat concedes in special election], ''Roll Call'', May 13, 2020</ref> and held it through the regular elections,<ref>[https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/12/01/its-over-garcia-defeats-smith-for-25th-congressional-seat-after-months-of-drama/ It’s over: GOP Rep. Mike Garcia defeats Christy Smith for California’s 25th Congressional seat by 333 votes], ''The Mercury Times'', December 1, 2020</ref> and also flipped 3 other house seats,<ref>[https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/kamalas-coattails-republicans-flip-three-democratic-house-seats-in-california/ Kamala’s Coattails: Republicans Flip Three Democratic House Seats in California], ''National Review'', November 21, 2020</ref> reversing some of the damage.
* [[Fun:Georgia|Georgia]]—Democrat Lucy McBath defeated Republican incumbent Karen Handel to represent Georgia’s 6th congressional district (once [[Newt Gingrich]]'s territory) in the Atlanta suburbs.<ref>[https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/08/karen-handel-concedes-to-lucy-mcbath-in-georgia-6th-district-election.html GOP Rep. Karen Handel concedes to Democratic challenger Lucy McBath in a tight race for the Georgia House seat once held by Newt Gingrich], ''CNBC'', November 8, 2018</ref> McBath, who tragically lost her son to gun violence in 2012, made her name as a [[gun control]] advocate.<ref>[https://abcnews.go.com/US/rep-lucy-mcbath-writes-emotional-birthday-letter-son/story?id=69033189 Rep. Lucy McBath writes emotional birthday letter to son who died by gun violence], ''ABC News'', February 17, 2020</ref> A Black woman, she received little of the massive funding and press coverage that White male Democrat Jon Ossoff got when trying to flip this district in 2017, yet managed to succeed where Ossoff failed. However, Jon Ossoff would become elected as a senator from Georgia in a January 2021 runoff election, which gave Democrats control of the Senate for the 117th Congress.<ref>[https://www.npr.org/2021/01/06/952417689/democrat-jon-ossoff-claims-victory-over-david-perdue-in-georgia-runoff Jon Ossoff Wins Georgia Runoff, Handing Democrats Senate Control], ''NPR'', January 6, 2021</ref>
* New Jersey—Democrats nearly wiped out the Republican congressional delegation from New Jersey, winning 11 of the state’s 12 seats, compared to just seven in 2016.<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/14/nyregion/congress-nj-democrat-andy-kim.html N.J. Democrat Defeats Trump Ally, Leaving the State With Just 1 Republican in Congress], ''New York Times'', November 14, 2018</ref> (Chris Smith of the 4th congressional district became the Garden State's only GOPer in the House.) One noteworthy Democratic newcomer was Andy Kim, who defeated Republican incumbent Tom MacArthur in New Jersey’s 3rd district. Kim is the first Korean-American Democrat to be elected to Congress.<ref>[https://keia.org/the-peninsula/meet-the-four-korean-american-members-of-the-117th-congress/ Meet the Four Korean American Members of the 117th Congress], ''The Penninsula'', January 12, 2021</ref> However, in January 2020, Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey's 2nd district changed affiliation to a Republican.<ref>[https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/08/27/rnc-how-jeff-van-drew-went-democrat-donald-trump-ally/5649781002/ How Jeff Van Drew went from being a Democrat to speaking at the RNC], ''USA Today'', August 27, 2020</ref>
* [[Fun:Oklahoma|Oklahoma]] - In Oklahoma's 5th district, a very Republican district believed to have been safe for the GOP, Democrats actually beat an incumbent in a very surprising victory by 1.4%. <ref>[https://www.koco.com/article/surprise-winner-kendra-horn-ready-to-roll-up-sleeves-fix-problems-in-washington-dc/24819550 Surprise winner Kendra Horn ready to roll up sleeves, fix problems in Washington, DC], Koco News'', November 7, 2020</ref> However, Republicans would easily flip it in 2020.<ref>[https://www.businessinsider.com/oklahoma-5th-district-house-election-kendra-horn-vs-stephanie-bice-2020 Democratic incumbent Kendra Horn is projected to lose Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District race to Republican Stephanie Bice], ''Business Insider'', November 4, 2020</ref>
As of 22 January 2019, one House district was undecided: [[Fun:North Carolina|North Carolina]]’s 9th congressional district, based in the Charlotte suburbs. It initially appeared to have narrowly elected Republican Mark Harris (it had been GOP since 1962), but these results were thrown into question after evidence of election fraud surfaced.<ref>[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-the-holdup-in-that-unresolved-north-carolina-house-race/ What’s The Holdup In That Unresolved North Carolina House Race?], ''FiveThirtyEight'', January 9, 2019</ref> A special election was called, pitting Democrat Dan McCready against Republican Dan Bishop,<ref>[https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/voters-in-north-carolinas-9th-district-to-choose-nominees-in-do-over-election-after-fraud-scandal/2019/05/14/9e27a92c-7644-11e9-bd25-c989555e7766_story.html Republican voters nominate N.C. state lawmaker who sponsored controversial ‘bathroom bill’ in 9th Congressional District race], ''Washington Post'', May 14, 2019</ref> and Bishop won the election on September 10, 2019.<ref>[https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/north-carolina-special-election-mccready-bishop-n1052021 Republican Dan Bishop wins narrow victory in North Carolina special election], ''NBC News'', September 10, 2019</ref>

==US Senate results==
[[File:2018 United States Senate elections.svg|thumb|right|400px|US Senate results by party: dark colors are gains (except in Vermont and Maine, where they are holds respectively for [[Bernie Sanders]] and Angus King, independent senators who caucus with the Democrats), light colors are holds.]]
Whereas Democrats gained ground in the House, they lost it in the Senate, where Republicans won two net seats.<ref>[https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/08/democrats-republicans-senate-majority-minority-rule Democrats got millions more votes – so how did Republicans win the Senate?], ''The Guardian''</ref> This was largely due to the fact that Democrats were defending 26 of the 35 Senate seats up for election that year, including five seats in deep-red states and 10 more in swing states. The following six Senate seats changed hands between parties:
* Florida—Republican [[Rick Scott]], then the sitting Governor of Florida, narrowly beat three-term incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson.<ref>[https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6wsg4u Republican Rick Scott Narrowly Defeats Bill Nelson In Florida Senate Race], ''DailyMotion'', November 18, 2018</ref> With a net worth of more than $200 million, Scott had virtually unlimited funds to spend on his campaign, allowing him to succeed in a purple state during an otherwise blue year. Due to Scott’s victory, for the first time since [[Reconstruction]], Florida had two GOP senators. This is not nearly as good as it would have been in the Reconstruction era.<ref>[https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/politics/florida/florida-to-have-2-republican-senators-for-the-first-time-since-the-reconstruction-era/67-615725470 Florida to have 2 Republican senators for the first time since the Reconstruction era], ''WTSP'', November 18, 2018</ref>
* Missouri—Republican [[Josh Hawley]] defeated two-term incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill. McCaskill was hurt by political changes in Missouri, which has shifted from being a swing state to a ruby-red one since she was first elected.<ref>[https://www.columbiamissourian.com/republican-josh-hawley-wins-missouri-senate-race/article_3ec76408-81db-5ea1-9cc5-aa2125c280ee.html Republican Josh Hawley wins Missouri Senate race], ''Columbia Missourian'', November 6, 2018</ref>
* Indiana—Republican Mike Braun, a member of the Indiana House of Representatives, defeated one-term incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly.<ref>[https://www.wlky.com/article/race-tight-for-indianas-us-senate-seat/24675241 Republican Mike Braun flips Indiana Senate seat], ''WLKY'', November 6, 2018</ref> Donnelly mainly got elected because his then opponent, Richard Mourdock, made horrible comments about [[God]] intending for [[rape]] to happen. The fact that Braun was sensible enough not to say such vile things meant Donnelly was in for a bad time.
* North Dakota—Republican Kevin Cramer, who had represented North Dakota’s sole US House district, replaced one-term incumbent Democrat Heidi Heitkamp.<ref>[https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/06/kevin-cramer-defeats-heidi-heitkamp-in-north-dakota-senate-race.html Republican Kevin Cramer projected to unseat Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota: NBC News], ''CNBC'', November 6, 2018</ref> Given that North Dakota is one of the most Republican states in the nation, having backed Trump by 36 percentage points in the 2016 presidential election,<ref>[https://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/north-dakota/  2016 North Dakota Presidential Election Results], ''Politico'', December 13, 2016</ref> it’s frankly surprising that Heitkamp was ever elected in the first place (and even more so that the Peace Garden State sent her to the Senate while backing [[Mitt Romney]] for president over Obama by 19.6 points in [[2012 U.S. presidential election|2012]]),<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nd/north_dakota_romney_vs_obama-3238.html North Dakota: Romney vs. Obama], ''RealClearPolitics''</ref> although what definitively did her in were her vote against [[Brett Kavanaugh]]’s confirmation to the [[Supreme Court of the United States]]<ref>[https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/04/heitkamp-vote-no-kavanaugh-869443 Heitkamp to vote ‘no’ on Kavanaugh], ''Politico'', October 4, 2018</ref> and a voter registration law making it harder for Native Americans to vote.<ref>[https://www.npr.org/2018/10/13/657125819/many-native-ids-wont-be-accepted-at-north-dakota-polling-places Many Native IDs Won't Be Accepted At North Dakota Polling Places], ''NPR'', October 13, 2018</ref>
* Arizona—At-the-time Democrat [[Kyrsten Sinema]] defeated Republican Martha McSally to win a Senate seat formerly held by Republican Jeff Flake, who retired after serving a full term.<ref>[https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/12/martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema-race-how-arizona-voted-senate-race/1981442002/ Kyrsten Sinema beats Martha McSally to become Arizona's first female senator], ''AZCentral'', November 12, 2018</ref> Sinema thus became the first openly bisexual person elected to the United States Senate,<ref>[https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/kyrsten-sinema-makes-history-first-bisexual-member-u-s-senate-n935816 Kyrsten Sinema makes history as first bisexual member of U.S. Senate], ''NBC News'', November 12, 2018</ref> as well as the first woman to represent Arizona in the Senate. <ref>[https://www.rollcall.com/2018/11/12/kyrsten-sinema-becomes-first-female-senator-elected-from-arizona/ Kyrsten Sinema Becomes First Female Senator Elected From Arizona], ''Roll Call'', November 12, 2018</ref> Shortly after McSally lost to Sinema, Arizona Governor Doug Ducey appointed her to fill the Grand Canyon State’s other Senate seat, which [[John McCain]] had held until his death the previous August;<ref>[https://azgovernor.gov/governor/news/2018/12/governor-ducey-appoints-martha-mcsally-us-senate Governor Ducey Appoints Martha McSally To U.S. Senate], ''AZGovernor'', December 18, 2018</ref> that seat would be flipped two years later by astronaut Mark Kelly.<ref>[https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/06/politics/mark-kelly-arizona-senate/index.html Mark Kelly defeats Arizona GOP Sen. Martha McSally in key pickup for Democrats], ''CNN'', November 6, 2018</ref>
* Nevada—Democrat Jacky Rosen unseated one-term Republican incumbent Dean Heller.<ref>[https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/07/jacky-rosen-vs-dean-heller-nevada-senate-race-results-2018-963523 Jacky Rosen unseats Dean Heller in Nevada Senate race], ''Politico'', November 7, 2018</ref> With Rosen’s victory, both of Nevada’s US senators are female Democrats (Rosen joined Catherine Cortez Masto, who was elected two years earlier).
Another noteworthy election occurred in [[Fun:Texas|Texas]], where Democrat [[Beto O'Rourke]] challenged one-term Republican incumbent [[Ted Cruz]]. While O’Rourke lost, he came within three percentage points of unseating Cruz, suggesting that Texas may be shifting from red to purple.<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/texas-senate Texas Senate Election Results: Beto O’Rourke vs. Ted Cruz], ''New York Times'', January 28, 2019</ref>

Although the Senate results were considered a disappointment for Democrats, it’s worth emphasizing how difficult a position the party was in. Democrats were defending the vast majority of seats on the table, and in a less blue year, they would likely have lost far more. Democrats narrowly held on to Senate seats in [[Fun:Montana|Montana]]<ref>[https://www.vox.com/2018/11/7/18049646/senate-midterm-results-montana-jon-tester-winner Jon Tester reelected to US Senate, holding on to Montana seat for Democrats], ''Vox'', November 7, 2018</ref> and [[Fun:West Virginia|West Virginia]],<ref>[https://www.vox.com/2018/11/6/18049648/election-results-west-virginia-joe-manchin-wins Joe Manchin reelected in West Virginia: the most conservative Senate Democrat survives], ''Vox'', November 7, 2018</ref> two states that are usually raspberry red these days; they also held, by comfortable margins, seats they held from New Mexico, [[Fun:Minnesota|Minnesota]], Wisconsin, Michigan, [[Fun:Ohio|Ohio]], Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Maine, all swing states that would ordinarily be competitive. Netting two seats, then, was no great victory for Republicans. So bad, in fact, it allowed Democrats to narrowly take back the Senate in 2020, when all they did was flip a net of 3 seats.

==Governors’ results==
[[File:2018 United States gubernatorial election results.svg|thumb|right|400px|Gubernatorial results by party: dark colors are gains, light colors are holds.]]
In addition to easily holding three governors’ races in swing states (Colorado, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania), the Democrats flipped seven Republican-held governorships in the following states:
* Illinois—Though otherwise a blue state, Illinois did have a Republican governor, Bruce Rauner, who was elected in the red wave year of 2014. Rauner lost to billionaire [[philanthropist]] J. B. Pritzker. Given that Democrats already held the state legislature, Pritzker’s victory gave the party full control over Illinois.
* New Mexico—Michelle Lujan Grisham defeated Steve Pearce (both stood down from the federal House of Representatives) in a landslide to win New Mexico’s open governor’s seat (GOP governor Susana Martinez was term-limited). Her victory gave Democrats full control of the state’s government. Lujan Grisham is the first Latina from the Democratic Party in US history to be elected as a state governor, as well as the first woman from the Democratic Party to be governor of New Mexico.<ref>[https://www.vox.com/2018/11/6/18047884/midterm-election-results-new-mexico-governor-michelle-lujan-grisham-democratic-latina New Mexico elects Michelle Lujan Grisham as first Democratic Latina governor in the US], ''Vox'', November 7, 2018</ref>
* Nevada—Democrat Steve Sisolak defeated Republican Adam Laxalt to replace term-limited GOP governor Brian Sandoval. His victory gives Democrats full control of Nevada’s government.
* Maine—Democrat Janet Mills defeated Republican Shawn Moody to replace term-limited GOP governor [[Paul LePage]]. Mills is the first woman to serve in the governor’s office. Combined with Democratic gains in the state senate, her victory gives Democrats full control of Maine.<ref>[https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/11/09/after-years-lepage-maine-went-very-blue-tuesday/5QhkH7mUFE2pcMoYKQocIN/story.html After years of LePage, Maine went very blue Tuesday], ''Boston Globe'', November 9, 2018</ref>
* Michigan—Democrat Gretchen Whitmer defeated Republican Bill Schutte to replace term-limited GOP governor Rick Snyder. Whitmer’s victory put an end to eight years of full Republican government in Michigan, though Republicans still control the state legislature.
* Wisconsin—After surviving three challenges (including a recall in 2012)<ref>[https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/06/05/154384654/live-blog-wisconsin-decides-governors-fate-in-recall-vote Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker Survives Recall], ''NPR'', June 5, 2012</ref> over the past eight years, Wisconsin’s chief union buster, Republican [[Scott Walker]], narrowly lost his bid for reelection to Democrat Tony Evers. Evers’ victory put an end to eight years of full Republican government in Wisconsin, though Republicans still control the state legislature.
* Kansas—Democrat Laura Kelly defeated Republican Vote-Suppressor-in-Chief Kris Kobach. Kelly’s victory put an end to eight years of full Republican government in Kansas, though Republicans still have supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature.
Republicans did not flip a single Democrat-held governorship in this election. However, Republican Mike Dunleavy was elected Governor of [[Fun:Alaska|Alaska]].<ref>[https://www.adn.com/politics/2018/11/06/dunleavy-on-track-to-become-next-governor-of-alaska/ Dunleavy on track to become Alaska’s next governor], ''Anchorage Daily News'', November 7, 2018</ref> Dunleavy replaces Bill Walker, an independent who was generally considered closer to the Democratic Party, at least by Alaskan standards.

Although Democrats generally performed well in governors’ races, they did lose several high-profile contests. Notably, progressive Democrat Stacey Abrams narrowly lost her bid to become Governor of Georgia,<ref>[https://www.npr.org/2018/11/16/668753230/democrat-stacey-abrams-ends-bid-for-georgia-governor-decrying-suppression Georgia's Stacey Abrams Admits Defeat, Says Kemp Used 'Deliberate' Suppression To Win], ''NPR'', November 16, 2018</ref> though she did come closer to victory than any Democrat since 1998. In Florida, progressive Democrat Andrew Gillum narrowly lost despite having led in the vast majority of the polls.<ref>[https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2018/11/07/four-reasons-why-andrew-gillum-lost/1920396002/ Four factors that dragged Andrew Gillum down in Florida governor race], ''Tallahassee Democrat'', November 7, 2018</ref> Democrats also lost close races in Ohio,<ref>[https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2018/12/final-ohio-2018-election-results-mike-dewine-beat-richard-cordray-504-to-467-with-largest-turnout-in-ohio-history-for-a-governors-race.html Final Ohio 2018 election results: Mike DeWine beat Richard Cordray, 50.4% to 46.7% with largest turnout in Ohio history for a governor’s race], ''Cleveland.com'', September 24, 2021</ref> [[Fun:Iowa|Iowa]],<ref>[https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2018/11/07/iowa-election-2018-fred-hubbell-kim-reynolds-governor-democrat-republican-cindy-axne-finkenauer/1732311002/ Iowa Democrats stunned, confused after Fred Hubbell loses, but others make big gains], ''Des Moines Register'', November 7, 2018</ref> and [[Fun:South Dakota|South Dakota]].<ref>[https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2018/11/07/south-dakota-governor-election-billie-sutton-kristi-noem/1891236002/ Billie Sutton loses close governor's race, tells supporters work isn't over], ''Argus Leader'', November 7, 2018</ref>

Weirdly, Republicans easily won governors’ races in the deep-blue states of [[Fun:Vermont|Vermont]], [[Fun:Massachusetts|Massachusetts]], and [[Fun:Maryland|Maryland]]. The Republican candidates in question (Phil Scott, Charlie Baker, and Larry Hogan respectively) all have moderate to liberal policy records, and have publicly opposed Donald Trump. Democrats also gained or already had supermajorities in all three states’ legislatures, limiting the governors’ power to challenge Democratic priorities, with Massachusetts having one before, and Maryland and Vermont gaining one. However, [[Vermont]]'s supermajority in the Vermont House of Representatives narrowly got erased in 2020, making it easier for Phil Scott to veto bills.

==Other results==
In addition to House, Senate, and governors’ races, Democrats achieved success in:
* '''State legislatures'''—Democrats flipped the Colorado State Senate and the New York State Senate, giving the party full control of both states. They also flipped the Minnesota House of Representatives.<ref>[https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/11/06/2018-midterm-election-minnesota-legislature-election-day-vote DFL retakes Minnesota House; MN Senate stays with GOP], ''MPRNews'', November 7, 2018</ref> Democrats flipped both houses of the New Hampshire state legislature, putting an end to two years of full Republican control. In North Carolina, Democrats narrowed Republican majorities in both houses of the state legislature; as a result, Republicans in that state can no longer override the vetoes of Democratic governor Roy Cooper.<ref>[https://www.wfae.org/politics/2018-11-07/democrats-break-gop-supermajorities-in-nc-general-assembly Democrats Break GOP Supermajorities In NC General Assembly], ''WFAE'', November 7, 2018</ref> However, Republicans gained seats in the Alaska House of Representatives; it initially looked as if this would give the GOP control, but after a month of squabbling, a coalition of Democrats, Independents, and moderate Republicans resumed control of the chamber.<ref>[https://www.ktuu.com/content/news/Alaska-House-confirms-new-speaker-only-60-days-remaining-in-session-505843571.html Bryce Edgmon confirmed as Alaska House speaker after 31 days in session], ''Alaska's News Source'', February 14, 2019</ref>
* '''Judicial elections'''—Democrats made gains in judicial races in states that elect their judges. Notably, Democrat Anita Earls, a woman of color who ran an unabashedly progressive campaign, was elected to the Supreme Court of North Carolina, giving the party a 5–2 majority.<ref>[https://www.wfae.org/politics/2018-11-07/democrats-pick-up-seats-on-nc-supreme-court-appeals-court Democrats Pick Up Seats On NC Supreme Court, Appeals Court], ''WAFE'', November 7, 2018</ref>
* '''Attorneys general'''—Democrats flipped attorney generalships in Wisconsin, Colorado, Michigan, and Nevada,<ref>[https://www.governing.com/archive/gov-democrats-gain-four-seats-attorney-general-races.html Democrats Pick Up 4 Seats So Far in AG Races], ''Governing'', November 7, 2018</ref> though Republicans picked up an independent-held attorney generalship in Alaska.
* '''Ballot initiatives'''—Ballot initiatives favored by Democrats passed in several swing and red states. In particular, Florida passed an initiative to restore voting rights to most felons,<ref>[https://www.clickorlando.com/news/politics/2020/11/03/timeline-effort-to-restore-former-felons-voting-rights-in-florida/ Timeline: Effort to restore former felons voting rights in Florida], ''Click Orlando''</ref> while Michigan and Nevada passed initiatives allowing for automatic voter registration.<ref>[https://www.michigan.gov/som/0,4669,7-192-26847-508246--,00.html Secretary Benson announces modernized voter registration on National Voter Registration Day], ''Michigan.gov'', September 24, 2019</ref><ref>[https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/automatic-voter-registration-efforts-nevada Automatic Voter Registration Efforts in Nevada], ''Brennan Center for Justice'', November 9, 2018</ref> Missouri (although this would be shot down in 2020)<ref>[https://missouriindependent.com/2020/11/04/voters-repeal-clean-missouri-redistricting-plan-they-enacted-in-2018/ Voters repeal Clean Missouri redistricting plan they enacted in 2018], ''Missouri Independent'', November 4, 2020</ref>, Michigan,<ref>[https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/07/proposal-2-anti-gerrymandering-michigan/1847402002/ Michigan's anti-gerrymandering proposal is approved. Now what?], ''Detroit Free Press''</ref> [[Fun:Utah|Utah]],<ref>[https://www.deseret.com/2018/11/20/20659293/utah-proposition-to-battle-gerrymandering-passes-as-final-votes-tallied Utah proposition to battle gerrymandering passes as final votes tallied], ''Desert News'', November 21, 2018</ref> and Colorado<ref>[https://www.cpr.org/2018/11/07/colorado-amendments-y-z-independent-panels-for-redistricting-have-passed/ Colorado Amendments Y & Z, Independent Panels For Redistricting, Have Passed], ''CPR News'', November 7, 2018</ref> passed initiatives to creating nonpartisan redistricting commissions, a move that could limit [[gerrymandering]] in the future.

==Republican response==
In response to this midterm drubbing, Republicans doubled down on what they were doing before. Republicans’ most notable statements and actions during the months following the midterms include:
* '''Screwing their successors'''—In Wisconsin and Michigan, outgoing Republican governors Scott Walker and Rick Snyder have signed lamed-duck legislation designed to screw over their Democratic successors and the Democratic Party generally. In Wisconsin, Republicans have scaled back early voting to depress turnout among Democratic-leaning voters,<ref>[https://www.wpr.org/after-raucous-hearing-bills-restrict-early-voting-curtail-evers-powers-move-full-legislature After Raucous Hearing, Bills To Restrict Early Voting, Curtail Evers' Powers Move To Full Legislature], ''Wisconsin Public Radio'', December 3, 2018</ref> limited the governor’s ability to appoint new members to the state’s economic development board,<ref>[https://weda.org/legislature-acts-to-change-make-up-of-wedc-board-appointment-of-ceo/ Legislature acts to change make-up of WEDC Board; appointment of CEO], ''WEDA'', December 5, 2018</ref> and prevented the governor and attorney general from withdrawing Wisconsin from an anti-[[Obamacare]] lawsuit.<ref>[https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/426816-wisconsin-gov-cant-withdraw-state-from-obamacare-lawsuit Wisconsin AG rules governor can't pull state from ObamaCare lawsuit], ''The Hill'', January 24, 2019</ref> In Michigan, Republicans have made it harder to collect signatures for ballot initiatives, limited the ability of state regulatory agencies to adopt stricter standards than those of their federal counterparts, and slowed a rise in the [[minimum wage]].<ref>[https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/michigan/articles/2018-12-28/a-look-at-lame-duck-bills-that-snyder-has-signed-vetoed A Look at Lame-Duck Bills That Snyder Signed, Vetoed], ''U.S. News'', December 28, 2018</ref> While these measures are of dubious legality and may not survive the courts, at the very least, they will slow down the incoming Democratic governors and other officials, who must now spend their first few months litigating instead of legislating. '''Update:''' A federal judge has struck down Wisconsin's lame-duck laws as unconstitutional.<ref>[https://www.npr.org/2019/01/17/686327659/federal-judge-strikes-down-lame-duck-changes-to-wisconsin-voting-laws Federal Judge Strikes Down Lame-Duck Changes To Wisconsin Voting Laws], ''NPR'', January 17, 2019</ref>
* '''Reversing redistricting reform'''—Voters in Missouri passed a ballot initiative that would create the position of State Demographer, a nonpartisan office charged with drawing congressional and state legislative maps that represent each party fairly. This measure would have limited gerrymandering, thereby making it easier for Democrats to win in what is otherwise a solid red state. Missouri’s Republican governor, Mike Parson, has responded by calling to repeal this initiative and establish new measures that make it harder to have a statewide referendum.<ref>[https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/nation/missouri-governor-wants-repeal-of-new-redistricting-law/ Missoru governor wants repeal of new redistricting law], ''The Seattle Times'', December 23, 2018</ref>
* '''Shutting down the government'''—Donald Trump, who never managed to get funding for his ridiculous border wall when [[Paul Ryan]] ran the House, apparently thought [[Nancy Pelosi]] would give it to him. When Pelosi turned him down, Trump responded by refusing to sign any bill to fund the government, leading to the longest Federal shutdown in US history.<ref>[https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/longest-government-shutdown/index.html This is the longest shutdown in US history], ''CNN'', January 22, 2019</ref> On January 25, Trump finally caved, sort of, signing a bill to fund the government through February 15. Republicans in Congress showed no signs of breaking with Trump and passing a bill to fund the government over his veto, even though those same Republicans passed a bill to fund the government without wall funding before Trump declared he wouldn’t sign such a bill.<ref>[https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/19/mcconnell-to-introduce-short-term-funding-bill-to-avert-shutdown-1068976 Senate passes short-term spending bill to avert shutdown], ''Politico'', December 19, 2018</ref>
* '''Declaring a national emergency'''—On February 15, Trump declared a national emergency on the southern border, allowing him to use government funds to build the wall without congressional approval. The move is certain to be challenged in court, and has concerned some Republicans, who are worried that it will set a precedent for future Democratic presidents to declare national emergencies over issues such as gun control.<ref>[https://www.npr.org/2019/02/15/695012728/trump-expected-to-declare-national-emergency-to-help-fund-southern-border-wall As Trump Declares National Emergency To Fund Border Wall, Democrats Promise A Fight], ''NPR'', February 15, 2019</ref>
* '''Playing up the Senate results'''—Trump and his supporters have attempted to dispute that 2018 was a victory for Democrats by emphasizing that Republicans gained two net seats in the Senate. [[Chuck Schumer]] best summed up how pathetic this is: “When the President brags that he won North Dakota and Indiana, he’s in real trouble.”<ref>[https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-chuck-schumer-president-1254195 Chuck Schumer Mocks Trump to His Face: 'When the President Brags He Won North Dakota and Indiana, He's in Real Trouble'], ''Newsweek'', December 11, 2018</ref>
* '''A shout-out to White supremacy'''—Though not strictly a reaction to the midterms, returned Representative [[Steve King]] (R–Iowa) made some comments that seem to sum up the GOP’s values going forward. “White nationalist, [W]hite supremacist, Western civilization—how did that language become offensive? Why did I sit in classes teaching me about the merits of our history and our civilization?”<ref>[https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iowa-rep-steve-king-white-nationalism-and-white-supremacy/ Iowa Rep. Steve King under fire for remark on white nationalism and white supremacy], ''CBS News'', January 10, 2019</ref> King later insisted that these comments somehow do not make him racist.<ref>[https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/21/steve-king-no-apology-racist-comments-1179706 Steve King says he has 'nothing to apologize for' after racist comments], ''Politico'', February 21, 2019</ref>
Overall, neither Trump nor his allies in Congress and state governments showed any sign of moderation in response to the 2018 midterms. If anything, the GOP only became more extreme, with potentially disastrous consequences for American governance.

=="But it wasn't a blue wave!!!"==
In the months following the election, Republicans came up with a number of talking points to downplay the significance of the midterm results. Typically followed by statements like "2018 wasn't a wave," these claims include:
* "We won the Senate"<ref>[https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/11/06/election-results-2018-democrats-house-republicans-senate-donald-trump-column/1908194002/ Election results 2018: Bragging rights for everybody and nobody], ''USA Today'', November 6, 2018.</ref>—Republicans did gain two seats in the US Senate, but given that Democrats were defending 26 of the 35 Senate seats up for election, this isn't much of an accomplishment. If you ignore the net change in seats and actually look at where Democrats won and lost, Democratic performance in 2018 looks just as impressive as Republican performance in the red wave years of 2010 and 2014. Notably, Democrats in 2018 won every swing state except for Florida;{{efn|And arguably Texas, but if Texas is a swing state now, that's a really bad sign for Republicans.}} by comparison, Republicans lost two swing state Senate races in 2010 (Colorado and Nevada) and five in 2014 (New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, Virginia, and New Hampshire). Overall, Democrats won 24 of the 35 Senate elections in 2018, or 68.6%; Republicans won 24 out of 36 Senate elections in 2014 (66.7%) and 24 out of 37 in 2010 (64.9%).<ref>[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-democrats-didnt-win-the-senate-but-they-did-better-than-it-seems/ No, Democrats Didn’t Win The Senate. But They Did Better Than It Seems], ''FiveThirtyEight'', November 19, 2018.</ref>
* "Forty House seats aren't ''that'' many"—GOP apologists point out that Democrats "only" netted 40 seats in the House of Representatives in 2018; by comparison, Republicans netted 63 seats in 2010, and 54 in 1994. But this point ignores the fact that Democrats didn't have as many seats to gain in 2018 as Republicans had in 2010 or 1994. In November 2018, Democrats had 194 House seats; by comparison, Republicans had 176 seats in November 1994 and 179 in November 2010. Republicans gained more seats in 1994 and 2010, then, because they ''had'' to gain more seats, and because they had fewer of their own seats to defend. If you consider the actual number of seats won, Democrats came out of 2018 with 235 House seats, which is slightly more than the 230 seats Republicans won in 1994, and only slightly fewer than the 242 seats Republicans won in 2010.
* "Democrats only won because of so many GOP retirements"—Many Republican House members retired rather than run for reelection in 2018; some GOP apologists have argued that it was the failure to defend these seats, rather than a surge in support for the Democratic Party, that allowed Democrats to take the House. Two factors call this interpretation into question. First, of the 43 seats that Democrats flipped in 2018, only 13 were open seats. Democrats won 30 seats where Republican incumbents were running,<ref>[https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/06/2018-midterm-election-results-incumbents-967438 2018 midterms: Incumbents who lost], ''Politico''</ref> which would have been more than enough seats to flip the House by itself. Second, part of the reason so many Republicans retired from Congress in 2018 was because they figured they couldn't have been re-elected and didn't want to waste time trying. So the retirements didn't cause the blue wave; the blue wave caused the retirements.
* "It doesn't mean Trump won't be re-elected"—Some Republicans concede that 2018 was a blue wave, or at least a good night for Democrats, but pivot to pointing out that Trump could still be [[2020 U.S. presidential election|re-elected in 2020]] (which ultimately did not occur). This is true enough; plenty of presidents have been re-elected after suffering midterm defeats, including [[Barack Obama]],{{efn|At his first midterms in 2010, the Democrats lost 63 seats in the House and six seats in the Senate.}} [[Bill Clinton]],{{efn|At his first midterms in 1994, the Democrats lost 54 seats in the House and eight seats in the Senate.}} and [[Ronald Reagan]].{{efn|At his first midterms in 1982, the Republicans lost 27 seats in the House and one seat in the Senate.}} But the 2018 midterms did prove something ominous for Trump: that his bad poll numbers meant something. On the whole, the polls accurately predicted not just that Democrats would do well, but ''where'' they would do well. Democrats made gains in states and districts where Trump's approval rating was low (such as Michigan, Colorado, Virginia, and Pennsylvania), while losing ground where Trump's approval rating was high (like Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota). This suggested that Republicans would continue to lose elections in states where Trump was unpopular; as of the conclusion of the midterms, he was unpopular in far too many states to win re-election.<ref>[https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/ Tracking Trump - Morning Consult]</ref> There was time for Trump to turn this around, but he failed to do so, and as such was not re-elected.

Even in the biggest midterm waves, neither party bats 100%. Despite the blue wave of 2006, Democrats lost Senate races in Nevada and Maine and governors' races in California, [[Fun:Hawaii|Hawaii]], Minnesota, Nevada, [[Fun:Rhode Island|Rhode Island]], [[Fun:Connecticut|Connecticut]], and Vermont. Likewise, despite the red wave of 2010, Republicans still lost Senate races in Nevada, Colorado, and West Virginia and governors' races in Minnesota, Colorado, [[Fun:Arkansas|Arkansas]], and New Hampshire. And in the red wave year of [[2014 United States midterm elections|2014]], Republicans lost Senate races in New Mexico, Michigan, Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, as well as governor's races in Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Democrats even flipped Pennsylvania.{{efn|Arguably, they also flipped Alaska, as a left-leaning independent ousted a Republican.}} No party's performance is ever perfect, but that doesn't change the fact that Democrats did quite well.

==See also==
* [[2022 midterm elections]]

==Notes==
{{Notelist}}
==References==
{{reflist|2}}

[[Category:Elections]]

Categories: Elections