Hyperbole

[[File:Gartner Hype Cycle.svg|thumb|right|165px|The Gartner Hype Cycle: best ever]]
{{lognav}}
{{cquote|[[Hillary Clinton|You]] are going to approve one of the biggest [[tax]] cuts in history. You are going to approve one of the biggest tax increases in history. You are going to drive business out. Your regulations are a disaster, and you're going to increase regulations all over the place. And by the way, my tax cut is the biggest since [[Ronald Reagan]].|||[[Donald Trump]], 2016 presidential debate<ref>[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/26/the-first-trump-clinton-presidential-debate-transcript-annotated/ The first Trump-Clinton presidential debate transcript, annotated] by Aaron Blake (September 26, 2016 at 11:59 p.m. EDT) ''The Washington Post''.</ref>}}
'''Hyperbole''' (or '''hype''') is the use of exaggeration to make a point. It is completely and utterly unlike any other [[rhetorical]] technique, the single most powerful way to communicate any concept ever conceived.

Hyperbole is inevitably found in [[advertising]] and press releases by companies as well as universities. The field of [[artificial intelligence]] itself has a culture of hype.<ref name=narayan>''AI Snake Oil: What Artificial Intelligence Can Do, What It Can't, and How to Tell the Difference'' by Arvind Narayanan & Sayash Kapoor (2024) Princeton University Press. {{isbn|069124913X}}.</ref>{{rp|235-239,251-255}}

==Fallacy==
Hyperbolic fallacy (also known as "'''inductive hyperbole''") occurs when something is stated much more strongly than the observations behind it support.

Hyperbolic fallacy is common in [[science]] [[Journalism|reporting]]. Science reporters try to make science interesting to the general public, and all too often do this by exaggerating the importance of certain findings, "hyping" them as "breakthroughs" that "entirely upset" our previous assumptions, etc.

In fact, it is in the nature of inductive sampling that no conclusion is guaranteed to be true. There is always a degree of uncertainty, and always a possibility that the entire study might prove wanting.

This constant emphasis on breakthroughs in science may prime some listeners to accepting more wild claims of [[pseudoscience]] &mdash; because if science can do it, why can't the nice man with a website find a [[cancer]] cure?

The "truthful hyperbole", which is an oxymoron, according to [[Donald Trump|Trump]] (or his pseudo-autobiographer{{efn|Tony Schwartz<ref>[http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/07/25/donald-trumps-ghostwriter-tells-all Donald Trump's Ghostwriter Tells All: ''The Art of the Deal'' made America see Trump as a charmer with an unfailing knack for business. Tony Schwartz helped create that myth—and regrets it] by Jane Mayer (July 25, 2016) ''The New Yorker''.</ref>}}) never hurts <small>(in real estate)</small>.<ref>[https://www.fastcompany.com/3068552/i-call-it-truthful-hyperbole-the-most-popular-quotes-from-trumps-the-art-of-the-deal "I Call It Truthful Hyperbole": The Most Popular Quotes From Trump's "The Art of the Deal". The most-highlighted excerpts from Trump's book take on new meaning, given the way he ran his campaign—and is running America.] by Emily Price (04.04.17) ''Fast Company''.</ref> People who know Trump seem to think he doesn't understand the difference between the [[truth]] and a [[lie]].<ref>[https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/04/02/chris-christie-betrays-trump-defenders-remarkably-dim-view-of-the-presidents-intellect/ Chris Christie betrays Trump defenders’ remarkably dim view of the president’s intellect] by Aaron Blake (April 2, 2018) ''The Washington Post''.</ref>

==Gartner Hype Cycle==
Even the Gartner Hype Cycle (not an actual cycle), which while looking plausible and purportedly described the phases of hyperbole qualitatively for new [[technology]], was a load of hype that was put forward by Gartner business consultants in 2003.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20220201150735/https://www.gartner.com/en/documents/396330 Understanding Gartner's Hype Cycles] (30 May 2003) ''Gartner'' (archived from February 1, 2021).</ref> ''[[The Economist]]'' analyzed new technologies to see whether they fit the model described by Gartner. They found that new technologies rarely fit the model, concluding:<ref>[https://archive.is/PFmWw Artificial intelligence is losing hype: For some, that is proof the tech will in time succeed. Are they right?] (Aug 19<sup>th</sup> 2024) ''The Economist'' (archived from 19 Aug 2024 18:16:28 UTC).</ref>
{{cquote|We find, in short, that the cycle is a rarity. Tracing breakthrough technologies over time, only a small share—perhaps a fifth—move from innovation to excitement to despondency to widespread adoption. Lots of tech becomes widely used without such a rollercoaster ride. Others go from boom to bust, but do not come back. We estimate that of all the forms of tech which fall into the trough of disillusionment, six in ten do not rise again. Our conclusions are similar to those of Mr [Michael] Mullany: “An alarming number of technology trends are flashes in the pan.”}}

==Criti-hype==
Lee Vinsel, a professor of Science, Technology and Society, coined the term criti-hype to refer to a form of self-criticism that is simultaneously hyperbolically promotional, giving warnings about distant and implausible dangers that make a technology seem more powerful than it is to act as a distraction from more immediate and likely dangers. He gives as examples:<ref name=vinsel>[https://sts-news.medium.com/youre-doing-it-wrong-notes-on-criticism-and-technology-hype-18b08b4307e5 You’re Doing It Wrong: Notes on Criticism and Technology Hype] by Lee Vinsel (Feb 1, 2021) ''Medium''.</ref>
*The [[Human Genome Project]] and [[CRISPR]]'s corporate successors warnings designer babies and ageless bodies. The genomics company 23andMe has long faced informed consent and privacy concerns over personal [[DNA]] data,<ref name=vinsel/> particularly in 2024 when the company has faced the possibility of bankruptcy.<ref>[https://abcnews.go.com/US/legal-expert-23andmes-financial-struggles-impact-customer-data/story?id=115895688 Legal expert on how 23andMe’s financial struggles could impact customer data] (November 19, 2024, 3:04 AM) ''ABC News''.</ref>
*Claims were made by researchers that [[nanotechnology]] will transform nearly all fields… so more funding needs to be given to the researchers to plan for the coming transformations… which have yet to eventuate.<ref name=vinsel/>
*[[Artificial intelligence]] has been described as a rebranding exercise by industry.<ref name=vinsel/> More recently, "artificial general intelligence" (or "[[Artificial intelligence#Strong AI|strong AI]]"), and [[Roko's Basilisk]] have been promoted as futuristic/implausible dangers of AI to distract people from the many immediate harms of [[ChatGPT]].<ref name=narayan/>{{rp|178,253-254}}<ref>[https://www.techdirt.com/2023/04/14/the-ai-doomers-playbook/ The AI Doomers’ Playbook] by Nirit Weiss-Blatt (Apr 14th 2023 12:10pm) ''Techdirt''.</ref>

==See also==
*[[Bullshit]]
*[[Fake precision]]
*And the super-duper winner is… [[Donald Trump]]

==External links==
*{{wpa|Hyperbole}}
*[https://www2.palomar.edu/users/bthompson/Inductive%20Hyperbole.html Inductive Hyperbole], Bruce Thompson

==Notes==
{{reflist|group=note}}

==References==
{{reflist|2|80%}}

{{logfal}}

[[Category:Informal fallacies]]

Categories: Informal fallacies