RationalWiki:Predictions

{{fun|Predictions}}
The '''RationalWiki Predictions''' page is a simple tool to allow users to make long-term [[prediction]]s, in the spirit of [http://www.longbets.org/ Longbets.org.] Predictions should generally relate to [[RationalWiki:Mission|the mission]], or be generally relevant to [[politics]], [[science]], [[society]], or [[economics]]. Once a prediction is settled, it will be archived as correct or incorrect.

Vote up (green) if you agree with the prediction, down (red) if you disagree, or meh (amber) if you're unsure/don't care.

When adding predictions, try to present statements in a way that makes them easy to judge as true or false when the excrement hits the rotating blades.

==Current bets==
{|class="wikitable sortable"
|-
!Vote
!Proposed Bet
!Proposed by
!Date
!Expected End
<!--NEWEST ENTRY AT THE TOP.  ONE PREDICTION AT A TIME.-->
<!--CURRENT NEW POLL NUMBER IS 253. UPDATE WHEN ADDING NEW POLLS-->
<!--Add an end date if it can be nailed specifically down.-->

|-
|<vote poll=253></vote>
|The AI market will crash by the end of the decade
|[[User:Patty Pat|Patty Pat]]
|11 November 2025
|31 December, 2029
|-
|<vote poll=252></vote>
|Canadian and Mexican medical tourism will skyrocket when certain vaccines are banned under RFK.
|[[User:Patty Pat|Patty Pat]]
|6 November 2024
|Whenever Kennedy retires or is fired.
|-
|<vote poll=251></vote>
|RFK's health administration policies will lead to a significant rise in measles and other diseases, and will likely dissuade reporting.
|[[User:Patty Pat|Patty Pat]]
|6 November 2024
|Whenever Kennedy retires or is fired.
|-
|<vote poll=250></vote>
|The United States as we know it will cease to exist.
|[[User:Rockford the Roe|Rockford the Roe]]
|2 November 2024
|4 July 2076
|-
|<vote poll=248></vote>
|Like climate change denial, [[flat earth|flat-earthism]] will end up being mainstream
|[[User:Tavantius|Tavantius]]
|1 November 2024
|1 November 2034
|-
|<vote poll=pred246></vote>
|If RFK Jr. is appointed in a Trump administration, COVID-19 vaccines will be banned.
|[[User:Patty Pat|Patty Pat]]
|26 October 2024
|20 January 2029, or if Trump loses
|-
|<vote poll=pred244></vote>
|Wearing face masks in public will be banned nationwide under a possible second Trump administration
|[[User:Patty Pat|Patty Pat]]
|29 September 2024
|20 January 2029 or Trump loses
|-
|<vote poll=pred239></vote>
|MyPillow will file for bankruptcy by the end of the decade.
|[[User:Patty Pat|Patty Pat]]
|July 23rd, 2024
|December 31st, 2029.
|-
|<vote poll=pred238></vote>
|China will win the second space race to the moon.
|[[User:A somebody.|A Somebody.]]
|29 June 2024
|December 31 2030 or earlier
|-
|<vote poll=pred237></vote>
|The MAGA movement will collapse due to infighting caused by a power vacuum and the lack of a successor after Trump retires.
|[[User:Patty Pat|Patty Pat]]
|28 June 2024
|Between 2025 and 2035. Depending on if he wins and when he leaves the public spotlight.
|-
|<vote poll=pred234></vote>
| [[J. D. Vance]] will run for US President in the 2028 election cycle.
|[[User:Chillpilled|Chillpilled]]
|15 April 2024
|7 November 2028
|-
|<vote poll=pred221></vote>
| The GOP will attempt to federally ban minors from attending any LGBTQ+ related events within the next 10 years
|[[User:Rockford the Roe|Rockford the Roe]]
|7 December 2022
|7 December 2032
|-
|<vote poll=pred217></vote>
| [[Boris Johnson]] will be the first UK Prime Minister since [[Harold Wilson]] to serve non-consecutive terms.
|[[User:RWRW|RWRW]]
|6 September 2022
|-
|<vote poll=pred208></vote>
|Following the large-scale of protests of {{wpl|https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%932018_Iranian_protests|2017-18}}, {{wpl|https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932020_Iranian_protests|2019-20}}, strikes of {{wpl|https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_Iranian_general_strikes_and_protests|2018-19}} et al and a sanction-hit economy, there will be a successful revolution in Iran within the next five years - but the outcome may not neccesarily be favorable to Western interests.
|
|March 6 2021
|March 6 2026
|-
|<vote poll=pred202></vote>
|The piss tape will prove to be real
|{{u|ikanreed}}
|September 25 2019
|Oh let's say 2030
|-
|<vote poll=pred200></vote>
|Russia will attempt to integrate or annex Belarus within the next decade.
|{{u|DuceMoosolini}}
|January 17 2019
|December 31 2030
|-
|<vote poll=pred192></vote>
|The USA will break up Yugoslavia-style within the next 150-200 years.
|[[User:N7.Geth|N7.Geth]]
|6 February 2017
|6 February 2217
|-
|<vote poll=pred188></vote>
|Ivanka Trump will rule over a significant portion of the North American continent sometime in the future.
|{{u|141.134.75.236}}
|12 December 2016
|when the last Ivanka clone hits the dirt
|-
|<vote poll=pred163></vote>
|Regardless of whether he wins, the popular support of Sanders policies will result in a notable shift in American politics to more openly left policies by 2030.
|{{u|Paravant}}
|9 October 2015
|31 December 2030
|-
|<vote poll=pred121></vote>
|There will be another [[Scotland|Scottish]] independence vote within 15 years, which will either succeed or be closer than the September 2014 vote was. 
|{{u|Miekal}}
|23 November 2014
|31 December 2030
|-
|<vote poll=pred49></vote>
|[[Kim Jong-un]] will remain in power until his death. Could be a really long bet.
|{{u|Seonookim}}
|12 March 2013
|}

==Results==
<!--<center>(<big>Prediction win to fail ratio - <span style="color:#0F0;">66</span>:<span style="color:#F00;">89</span>!</big>)</center>
<center>(<big>Vote win to fail ratio<ref>It is counted as a win if the total vote is at or above +1 for a right prediction or at or below -1 for a wrong prediction.  (If neutral it is also counted as a fail.)</ref> - <span style="color:#0F0;">99</span>:<span style="color:#F00;">56</span>!</big>)</center> -->


{| class="wikitable sortable"
|-
!Vote
!Proposed Bet
!Proposed by
!Date of Bet
!End of Bet
!Result
<!--MOST RECENT RESULT AT THE TOP-->
|-
|<vote poll=pred193 closed=yes></vote>
|Scotland will be an independent nation by the end of 2025.
|[[User:RoninMacbeth|RoninMacbeth]]
|March 30 2017
|December 31 2025
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong.
|-
|<vote poll=pred227 closed=yes></vote>
| If Trump gets re-elected in 2024, there will be an attempt at a coup getting rid of Trump.
|[[User:The Krusty Krab|The Krusty Krab]]
|6 November 2023
|31 May 2025
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong.
|-
|<vote poll=pred226 closed=yes></vote>
| Israel fully occupies the northern portion of the Gaza strip with ground troops, doesn't voluntarily pull out within two years.
|[[User:Chillpilled|Chillpilled]]
|31 October 2023
|31 October 2025
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Not all that clear, but going to go with "wrong". There was withdrawal from significant areas of the northern Gaza strip during the ceasefire(s).
|-
|<vote poll=pred240 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Justin Trudeau]]'s [[Liberal Party]] will lose over 50 seats in the next Canadian federal election.
|[[User:DuceMoosolini|DuceMoosolini]]
|5 September 2024
|28 April 2025
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong and also moot because it wasn't Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party by the time of the election.
|-
|<vote poll=253 closed=yes></vote>
|The [[New Democratic Party|NDP]] will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election, making Jagmeet Singh the first NDP prime minister in Canadian history.
|[[User:LongStylus|LongStylus]]
|21 November 2024
|28 April 2025
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong.
|-
|<vote poll=254 closed=yes></vote>
|RFK Jr. will not make it past the Senate vote
|[[User:Patty Pat|Patty Pat]]
|29 January 2025
|Whenever the Senate votes
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong.
|-
|<vote poll=pred216 closed=yes></vote>
|A Republican controlled House will attempt to impeach Joe Biden
|[[User:Patty Pat|Patty Pat]]
|August 15, 2022
|Whenever Biden is no longer relevant.
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong.
|-
|<vote poll=pred209 closed=yes></vote>
|Joe Biden will die or resign (voluntary or not) before the end of his first presidential term.
|{{u|Sievert 81}}
|March 6, 2021
|January 20, 2025
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong.
|-
|<vote poll=pred235 closed=yes></vote>
| [[Benjamin Netanyahu|Netanyahu]]'s government will fall before 2025.
|[[User:Arcadium_Trancefer|Arcadium_Trancefer]]
|26 June 2024
|1 January 2025
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong.
|-
|<vote poll=pred117 closed=yes></vote>
|A small ("small" meaning significantly smaller than [[France]] or [[Germany]], but not [[micronation]]-small) nation in Western [[Europe]] will undergo a major political revolution in the next decade.
|{{u|141.134.75.236}}
|30 October 2014
|1 January 2025
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong.
|-
|<vote poll=pred218 closed=yes></vote>
| [[File:Irish Uni 24.jpg|center|150px]]
|[[User:DuceMoosolini|DuceMoosolini]]
|9 September 2022
|31 December 2024 
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|''Star Trek'' was wrong again?!
|-
|<vote poll=pred229 closed=yes></vote>
| The Democratic Party will retake their majority in the US House of Representatives in the 2024 election cycle.
|[[User:DuceMoosolini|DuceMoosolini]]
|6 November 2023	
|5 November 2024
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Close, but wrong.
|-
|<vote poll=249 closed=yes></vote>
|Kamala Harris will win a higher percentage of the popular vote in [[Kansas]] in 2024 than Joe Biden did in 2020. 
|[[User:DuceMoosolini|DuceMoosolini]]
|1 November 2024
|6 November 2024
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong.
|-
|<vote poll=pred247 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Arizona]] will flip Republican again
|[[User:Patty Pat|Patty Pat]]
|26 October 2024
|5 November 2024 (actually closed on 10 November 2024)
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Right.
|-
|<vote poll=pred243 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Kamala Harris]] will win a [[Nobel Prize|Nobel Peace Prize]] during her first term as president if she wins. The prize would be given for bringing peace to the Israel-Gaza war.
|[[User:MayGodSaveUsAll|MayGodSaveUsAll]]
|22 September 2024
|20 January 2029 or Harris loses
|style="background:#808080; color:#FFF"|Harris lost.
|-
|<vote poll=pred242 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Fun:Georgia (U.S. state)|Georgia]] will flip Republican again.
|[[User:Arcadium_Trancefer|Arcadium_Trancefer]]
|6 September 2024
|5 November 2024
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Right.
|-
|<vote poll=pred241 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Kamala Harris]] will win at least one state that [[Joe Biden]] failed to win in 2020.
|[[User:Plutocow|Plutocow]]
|5 September 2024
|5 November 2024
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong.
|-
|<vote poll=pred245 closed=yes></vote>
|Donald Trump will defeat Kamala Harris in the 2024 US presidential election (I would love to be wrong about this).
|[[User:DuceMoosolini|DuceMoosolini]]
|11 October 2024
|5 November 2024
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred231 closed=yes></vote>
| [[Donald Trump]] will open the Gates of [[Hell]] and unleash the hordes of [[Gog and Magog]] on the radical left Democrats.
|[[User:Carthage|Carthage]]
|9 November 2023
|5 November 2024
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Gates opened.
|-
|<vote poll=pred228 closed=yes></vote>
| If the Democrats get re-elected in 2024, there will be an attempt at another coup to reinstate Trump.
|[[User:Lavalizard101|Lavalizard101]]
|6 November 2023	
|
|style="background:#808080; color:#FFF"|Moot.
|-
|<vote poll=pred220 closed=yes></vote>
| The Democratic Party will lose their majority in the US Senate in the 2024 elections.
|[[User:DuceMoosolini|DuceMoosolini]]
|18 November 2022
|5 November 2024
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred213 closed=yes></vote>
|Texas will vote to the left of Florida in the 2024 US presidential election.
|[[User:Plutocow|Plutocow]]
|April 23,2022
|November 5, 2024
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong.
|-
|<vote poll=pred230 closed=yes></vote>
| [[Joe Manchin]] will run for US President in the 2024 election cycle.
|[[User:Chillpilled|Chillpilled]]
|9 November 2023	
|5 November 2024 (actually closed 5 September 2024)
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong.
|-
|<vote poll=pred236 closed=yes></vote>
|Donald Trump will defeat Joe Biden in the 2024 US presidential election.
|[[User:DuceMoosolini|DuceMoosolini]]
|28 June 2024
|5 November 2024 (actually closed 21 July 2024)
|style="background:#808080; color:#FFF"|Moot, Biden dropped out.
|-
|<vote poll=pred222 closed=yes></vote>
| [[Donald Trump]] will be the Republican presidential nominee in 2024.
|[[User:DuceMoosolini|DuceMoosolini]]
|18 December 2022
|Whenever the 2024 RNC happens (actually closed 16 July 2024).
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Right.
|-
|<vote poll=pred223 closed=yes></vote>
| The Democrats will run someone against Kyrsten Sinema in 2024.
|[[User:Plutocow|Plutocow]]
|18 December 2022
|2024 Arizona Democratic Primary (actually closed 5 March 2024)
|style="background:#808080; color:#FFF"|Moot, Sinema isn't running for reelection.
|-
|<vote poll=pred232 closed=yes></vote>
| [[Mike Johnson]] will be replaced in his role as Speaker of the House by the end of January (probably by the end of November, honestly, but let's be generous).
|[[User:Chillpilled|Chillpilled]]
|13 November 2023
|31 January 2024
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong.
|-
|<vote poll=pred224 closed=yes></vote>
| Recreational cannabis will be legal in at least 25 U.S. states by the end of this year. (As of this writing, it is legal in 22)
|[[User:Plutocow|Plutocow]]
|24 April 2023
|31 December 2023
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Close, but no cigar. (It was 24.<ref>[https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/11/08/legal-weed-states/71500355007/ Ohio legalizes marijuana, joining nearly half the US: See the states where weed is legal]. ''USA Today.''</ref>)
|-
|<vote poll=pred214 closed=yes></vote>
| Most of Western Europe (and possibly the US too) will face a recession in 2023.
|[[User:GeeJayK|GeeJayK]]
|July 14, 2022
|2023
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|''Mostly'' wrong. the Eurozone saw a recession in first quarter of 2023 and final three months of 2022,<ref>https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/08/eurozone-sinks-into-recession-as-cost-of-living-crisis-takes-toll</ref> but the American economy performed much better than expected.<ref>https://www.npr.org/2024/01/01/1222380459/the-u-s-economy-performed-better-than-expected-in-2023-a-2024-preview</ref>.
|-
|<vote poll=pred173 closed=yes></vote>
|Spain's refusal to deal with Catalonian independence like the UK (Letting them hold a binding referendum, debating it) did with Scotland or Canada with Quebec will result in Catalonian independence by 2022. 
|{{u|Paravant}}
|8 December 2015
|31 December 2022
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong.
|-
|<vote poll=pred215 closed=yes></vote>
| If the GOP wins the House, they will try to investigate [[Hunter Biden]].
|[[User:Patty Pat|Patty Pat]]
|August 15, 2022
|Whenever Biden leaves office or some time afterwards. Or if the GOP loses the midterms.
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred219 closed=yes></vote>
| Rev. Raphael Warnock will defeat Herschel Walker in the runoff for the [[Georgia (U.S. state)|Georgia]] senate.
|[[User:Plutocow|Plutocow]]
|11 November 2022
|6 December 2022
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred73 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Qatar]] will not host the 2022 FIFA World Cup in any form, winter or summer.
|{{u|Man of Perspective}}
|4 October 2013
|2022
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong.
|-
|<vote poll=pred210 closed=yes></vote>
|The Democratic Party will lose their majority in the US House of Representatives in the 2022 midterms.
|DuceMoosolini
|6 March, 2021
|8 November, 2022
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Right (but a narrower loss than anyone expected).
|-
|<vote poll=pred212 closed=yes></vote>
|Donald Trump will run for a second term in 2024.
|[[User:Patty Pat|Patty Pat]]
|April 19, 2022
|Until the Republican Primaries in 2024.
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Of course he would. Let's hope it doesn't go like last time.
|-
|<vote poll=pred211 closed=yes></vote>
|The Democratic Party will lose their majority in the US Senate in the 2022 midterms.
|DuceMoosolini
|6 March, 2021
|8 November, 2022
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong. Democrats actually ''increased'' their majority by flipping Pennsylvania.   
|-
|<vote poll=pred119 closed=yes></vote>
|The next [[British]] monarch will be Prince William, either through his [[Prince Charles|father]] dying before [[Elizabeth II]] or through him not ascending to the throne for some other reason. 
|{{u|Miekal}}
|20 November 2014
|8 September 2022
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong. Old man Charlie hung on to take the crown.
|-
|<vote poll=pred143 closed=yes></vote>
|The NFL will not have a team in Los Angeles by or before the season starting September 2020
|{{u|Avengerofthe BoN}}
|21 August 2015
|September 2020
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred197 closed="yes"></vote>
|Facebook will file for bankruptcy within the next three years.
|{{u|Onde}}
|April 24 2018
|April 24 2021
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred160 closed="yes"></vote>
|The relations between [[Russia]] and the Western countries will gradually improve (or at least stabilize) during the next 3-5 years due to slow deescalation of the [[Ukraine|Ukrainian crisis]] and the necessity to fight global threats (like [[ISIS]]). 
|{{u|Timothy R.}}
|4 October 2015
|31 December 2020
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Right ... but only because the end date cut off [[Ukraine#2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine|before early 2022]].
|-
|<vote poll=pred161 closed="yes"></vote>
|The Islamic Republic of [[Iran]] will not recognize the state of Israel at any point within the next five years, or before a rapid non-scheduled change of government (coup/revolution/civil war/the likes), whichever comes first.
|{{u|Avengerofthe BoN}}
|4 October 2015
|31 December 2020
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Right 
|-
|<vote poll=pred170 closed="yes"></vote>
|Canada will not have any type of proportional representation before 2020—either not at all, or at least not by 2020.
|{{u|Civic Cat}}
|26 November 2015
|2020
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Right 
|-
|<vote poll=pred189 closed="yes"></vote>
|Donald Trump and his aides will conspire to gain almost unlimited powers and will make the US a de facto (if not de jure) dictatorship before his term expires.
|{{u|Gewgtweg}}
|1 April 2017
|20 January 2021
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Attempted to overturn 2020 election results, incited the [[2021 U.S. coup attempt]].
|-
|<vote poll=pred171 closed="yes"></vote>
|If Trump wins the presidency in 2016, his success in dealing with Congress and the states will be about as effective as Rob Ford's success with Toronto City Council. It would be a one-term presidency with at least 35% of the popular vote in 2020.
|{{u|Civic Cat}}
|26 November 2015
|20 January 2021
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Not a great relationship with Congress (e.g. getting impeached twice), and he did become a one-term president. He won 46.9% of the popular vote in 2020 though.
|-
|<vote poll=pred187 closed="yes"></vote>
|[[Donald Trump]] will either die or be impeached before the end of his first term as President of the United States.
|{{u|139.222.251.164}}
|12 December 2016
|8 November 2020
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Trump ''was'' impeached twice, although not removed from office.
|-
|<vote poll=pred186 closed="yes"></vote>
|[[Donald Trump]] will be reelected as President of the United States.
|{{u|Owlman}}
|21 November 2016
|8 November 2020
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred175 closed="yes"></vote>
|If Donald Trump is elected president, he will be the last president of the United States
|{{u|AgingHippie}}
|11 February 2016
|20 January 2021
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong. However, given that he won the 2024 election, it is unknown what will happen.
|-
|<vote poll=pred190 closed="yes"></vote>
|A high profile assassination attempt against Donald Trump will occur before the constitutional end of his first term. He will either be injured or killed, or shots will be fired in his general direction, or someone with any form of a weapon (including a knife) will be arrested within five kilometers of him or an event where he is scheduled to appear.
|{{u|Worzelpete}}
|2 December 2016
|20 January 2021
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong. One did occur in 2024, though.
|-
|<vote poll=pred194 closed="yes"></vote>
|The US will initiate conflict with Iran by 2021 Jan 20, probably on the basis of some suspect reason (WMD in Iraq, e.g.)
|[[User:Onychoprion|Onychoprion]]
|April 07 2017
|January 20 2021
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|The US did airstrike Qasem Soleimani in January 2020, but no military conflict followed
|-
|<vote poll=pred154 closed="yes"></vote>
|Super-delegates and weird ways of allocating delegates will swing the outcome of one major party nomination in a different way than the aggregate of popular vote totals in the 2016 or 2020 cycle.
|{{u|Avengerofthe BoN}}
|30 August 2015
|31 July 2020
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred207 closed="yes"></vote>
|Former Obama admin officials will be indicted.
|[[RobSmith]]
|26 June 2020
|Hopefully before the election.
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred206 closed="yes"></vote>
|Lt. Gen. [[Michael Flynn]] will walk and Mueller prosecutors held in contempt.
|[[RobSmith]]
|2 October 2019
|Sometime before final sentencing scheduled for December, 2019
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong, though Flynn received a pardon from Trump.
|-
|<vote poll=pred204 closed="yes"></vote>
|The top three finishers in the New Hampshire primary will be Warren, Yang, and Buttigieg.
|{{u|RobSmith}}
|25 September 2019
|2 February 2020
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|1/3. The top 3 was Sanders, Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
|-
|<vote poll=pred203 closed="yes"></vote>
|The Democratic Party will fail to win a majority of seats in the US Senate in the 2020 elections.
|{{u|DuceMoosolini}}
|25 September 2019
|3 November 2020
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Strictly speaking correct, as both parties have 50/50. But Dems control the Senate with the help of a Democratic VP.
|-
|-
|<vote poll=pred62 closed="yes"closed="yes"></vote>
|The RSA encryption algorithm will be broken before 2020.  Most of the world go into panic mode because of lack of time and incentive to update encryption software before it's broken.
|{{u|k61824}}
|24 August 2013
|1 January 2020
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred196 closed="yes"></vote>
|[[Trump]]'s [[Russia]] controversy will doom his [[President of the United States|presidency]].
|[[User:Cosmikdebris|Cosmikdebris]]
|May 27 2017
|January 01 2020
|style="background:#F00;color:#FFE"|It's the rest of us who are doomed.
|-
|<vote poll=pred84 closed="yes" />
|North Korea will either be forced to liberalize ([[China]]-style), or implode by the end of the decade.
|{{u|Osaka Sun}}
|16 January 2014
|31 December 2019
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred0006 closed="yes" />
|[[Julian Assange|Assange]] will be found not guilty of [[rape]].
|[[User:Bob M|Bob M]]
|19 December 2010
|(Should have been closed on 19 November, 2019 but was closed on 18 December 2022).
|style="background:#808080; color:#FFF"|Moot: [https://apnews.com/article/europe-ap-top-news-international-news-stockholm-extradition-933e765431c643eab301c69f19ecd582 Sweden dropped the rape investigation in November 2019].
|-
|<vote poll=pred201 closed="yes"/>
|Theresa May will still somehow be the British Prime minister until Brexit day.
|{{u|Dysklyver}}
|January 17 2019
|March 29 2019
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong<ref group=note>The March 29 deadline was extended to October 31. Boris Johnson became Prime Minister in July.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred195 closed="yes"/>
|At least one Justice-Democrat-style progressive candidate will win a congressional seat typically thought of as "safe" for the GOP in the 2018 midterm elections.
|[[User:Onychoprion|Onychoprion]]
|May 05 2017
|November 07 2018
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong{{efn|Seven candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats (JD) were elected to the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterms.<ref>https://ballotpedia.org/Justice_Democrats</ref> Before the midterms, all seven seats were held by Democrats (three JD-endorsed candidates were incumbents).<ref>https://www.axios.com/full-list-2018-midterm-election-seats-flipped-34d99826-0929-41c6-a1f0-e4d02861c835.html</ref> According to the forecast by ''{{wpl|FiveThirtyEight||,}}'' all seven candidates had a greater than 99.9% chance of winning and each district had a Democratic partisan leaning of at least 24.2 points: 
*Raul Grijalva: Arizona 3rd (Partisan lean: D+24.2) (incumbent)<ref>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/arizona/3/</ref>
*Pramila Jayapal: Washington 7th (D+63.2) (incumbent)<ref>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/washington/7/</ref>
*Ro Khanna: California 17th (D+47.1) (incumbent)<ref>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/california/17/</ref>
*Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: New York 14th (D+57.0)<ref>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/new-york/14/</ref>
*Ilhan Omar: Minnesota 5th (D+51.8)<ref>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/minnesota/5/</ref>
*Ayanna Pressley: Massachusetts 7th (D+74.0)<ref>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/massachusetts/7/</ref>
*Rashida Tlaib: Michigan 13th (D+62.4)<ref>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/michigan/13/</ref>}}
|-
|<vote poll=pred174 closed="yes"/>
|The Western sanctions on Russia (at least the sectoral ones) will be lifted before 2018.
|{{u|Timothy R.}}
|14 December 2015
|31 December 2018
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong<ref>[https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Pages/ukraine.aspx This also explicitly lists sectoral sanctions]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred81 closed="yes"/>
|The [[Private spaceflight|MarsOne "settlers"]] (if they ever launch) will not be the first people to reach [[Mars]]. (Possibilities for the actual first are many — [[NASA]], Roscosmos, ESA, JAXA, CNSA, SpaceX, etc, or any combination of the above.)
|{{u|ZooGuard}}
|14 November 2013
|11 Feburary 2019
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|MarsOne is bankrupt<ref name="marsone">[https://www.engadget.com/2019/02/11/mars-one-is-dead/ More life on mars than in this program]</ref>
|-
| <vote poll=pred80 closed="yes"/>
|The MarsOne "settlers" will never leave the ground. ("Never" defined as "as long as RW exists" or 2050, whichever comes sooner.)
|{{u|ZooGuard}}
|14 November 2013
|1 January 2050(actually closed on 11 Feburary 2019)
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|MarsOne is bankrupt<ref name="marsone" />
|-
|<vote poll=pred85 closed=yes />
|In the next five years [[Bitcoin]]'s value will drop to zero (or a few cents) and remain there indefinitely.
|{{u|Marlow}}
|16 January 2014
|1 January 2019
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Worth about 3000 dollars
|-
|<vote poll=pred61 closed="yes"></vote>
|There will be no direct military-to-military confrontation (military killing militia/civilians don't count) associated with land disputes for both Senkaku and Spratly Islands until end of 2018.
|{{u|k61824}}
|24 August 2013
|31 December 2018
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred155 closed=yes></vote>
|The Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be peacefully resolved within the next 3 years.
|{{u|142․124․55․236|142.124.55.236}}
|30 August 2015
|31 December 2018
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Nope, still going.
|-
|<vote poll=pred131 closed=yes></vote>
|The effects of the [[EmDrive]] will be conclusively shown to be a result of experimental error. (I hope I'm wrong.)
|{{u|HomoHeisenbergensis}}
|6 May 2015
|
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Happened 3 years later.[https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/the-emdrive-nasas-impossible-space-engine-really-is-impossible-cc1be93f9774] Should have been closed May 2018 (was October 2024).
|-
|<vote poll=pred113 closed=yes></vote> 
|[[Medical marijuana|Marijuana will be legalised for medicinal form]] in the [[US]] nearly nationwide by 2018.
|{{u|JRock1203}}
|14 October 2014
|1 January 2018
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong, closer though.
|-
|<vote poll=pred59 closed=yes></vote>
|[[NSA]] whistleblower [[Edward Snowden]] will die sometime before December 31st, 2018, under mysterious circumstances that suggest the US killed him. (For the record, I hope that I am wrong.)
|{{u|Ochotonaprinceps}}
|1 July 2013
|31 December 2018
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|He yet lives.
|-
|<vote poll=pred191 closed=yes></vote>
|If Betsy DeVos is confirmed, average SAT scores for the U.S. will go down.
|{{u|DiamondDisc1}}
|23 January 2017
|January 2019
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong (the tests were redesigned with to be easier)<ref>[https://blog.prepscholar.com/average-sat-scores-over-time scores over time]</ref><ref>[https://blog.prepscholar.com/new-sat-format-2016 Description of format changes]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred157 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Jeremy Corbyn]] will become the next Prime Minister of the UK after the 2020 Elections (or whenever the next General Election takes place). 
|{{u|Paravant}}
|12 September 2015
|2020
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong (Theresa May won 2017 General Election)
|-
|<vote poll=pred197 closed=yes></vote>
|The [[United States]] will not leave the Paris Agreement before the end of [[Trump]]'s presidency.
|{{u|112.26.232.79}}
|June 8 2017
|January 20 2021/2025
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred172 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Keith Olbermann]] will return in some paid on air capacity for [[MSNBC]] before the end of 2016
|{{u|Avengerofthe BoN}}
|26 November 2015
|31 December 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred120 closed=yes></vote>
|NBC's [http://www.truthorfiction.com/rumors/n/NBC-RFID-Chips-Prediction.htm#.VG4t5PnF98E prediction] that all Americans will be implanted with [[RFID]] chips by, or during 2017, will not come true.
|{{u|TemplarJLS}}
|20 November 2014
|31 December 2017
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred134 closed=yes></vote>
|[[ISIS]] as a unified political body will fracture and lose control of most of its territory by the end of 2017.
|{{u|miekal}}
|10 May, 2015
|31 December 2017
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Right<ref>[https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/isis-will-remain-threat-2018-experts-warn-n828146 ISIS will remain a threat in 2018, experts warn]. NBC News. December 27, 2017. {{quotebox|By early December, the Pentagon said 97 percent of ISIS-held territory in Iraq and Syria had been liberated. On Dec. 9, Iraq declared its war against the militant group over.}}</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred162 closed=yes></vote>
|Ayatollah Ali Khamenei "will suddenly cease being leader" of Iran within the next two years, which will be followed by a new leader more willing to negotiate with the West. 
|{{u|Paravant}}
|7 October 2015
|31 December 2017
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred185 closed=yes></vote>
|Angela Merkel will not be reelected and [[Alternative für Deutschland]] will gain a plurality of seats.
|{{u|Owlman}}
|21 November 2016
|24 September 2017
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred106 closed=yes></vote>
|In the 2014 [[New Zealand|NZ]] election the alternately [[libertarian]]/"tough-on-crime" ACT party will receive less than 2% of the party vote, but will win the seat of Epsom. In 2017 another general election will be held, and ACT will at least double its proportion of the party vote over 2014. 
|[[User:PeterL|PeterL]]
|24 July 2014
|23 September 2017
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong<!-- First half is RIGHT, ACT held Epsom and had 0.62% of the party vote http://www.elections.org.nz/news-media/new-zealand-2014-general-election-official-results  http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/10525450/ACT-novice-Seymour-victorious-in-Epsom 
However, ACT did not "at least double its proportion of the party vote over 2014". In 2014 they received 0.69% of the popular vote, and 0.5% in 2017.-->
|-
|<vote poll=pred192 closed=yes></vote>
|North Korea will test another nuclear weapon before July 1, 2017.
|{{u|Umichcynic}}
|23 January 2017
|1 July 2017
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong<ref>{{wpa|List of nuclear weapons tests of North Korea}}</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred184 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Marine Le Pen]] will become the President of France.
|{{u|Owlman}}
|21 November 2016
|23 April or 7 May 2017<ref>If a run-off election occurs</ref>
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred191 closed=yes></vote>
|Emmanuel Macron will win the second round of the 2017 French Elections
||[[User:N7.Geth|N7.Geth]]
|15 February 2017
|7 May 2017
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred180 closed=yes></vote>
|The UK will not invoke article 50 in 2016 or 2017.
|{{u|Bob M}}
|28 June 2016
|29 March 2017
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong<ref>{{wpa|United Kingdom invocation of Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union}}</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred00013 closed=yes></vote>
|Obama will not fulfill his promise to close [[Guantanamo Bay]].
|[[User:P-Foster|P-Foster]]
|4 January 2011
|20 January 2017
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred0021 closed=yes></vote>
|A third party (most likely [[Libertarian Party|Libertarian]]) president will get elected in one of this decade's elections.
|[[User:ColbertFan|ColbertFan]]
|5 March 2011
|8 November 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred57 closed=yes></vote>
|A Republican will win the electoral college in 2016 and become POTUS.  The Tea Party movement will vanish within days of the inauguration.
|{{U|TheLateGatsby}}
|5 June 2013
|8 November 2016/20 January 2017
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Right<ref>[[Donald Trump]] won the Electoral College on the Republican ticket</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred64 closed=yes></vote>
|There will be a high-profile assassination attempt on Obama before the end of his second term. Whether or not it fails, it will be followed by increased [[white supremacist]] violence.
|{{u|EddieMonah}}
|26 August 2013
|20 January 2017
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred176 closed=yes></vote>
|By nominating a judge who was recently confirmed by a majority of Republicans to a lower court, thereby forcing the GOP to avoid charges of hypocrisy and obstructionism, Obama will fill Scalia's SCOTUS position.
|{{u|AgingHippie}}
|14 February 2016
|20 January 2017
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred159 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Bill Shorten]] will be PM of Australia after Next Federal Election.
|[[Special:Contributions/101.190.117.128|101.190.117.128]]
|22 September 2015
|2 July 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-	
|<vote poll=pred77 closed=yes></vote>
|Regardless of who the Democratic Party's candidate for the 2016 Presidential Election is, they will win both the [[electoral college]] and popular vote.
|{{u|Psygremlin}}
|28 October 2013
|8 November 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred183 closed=yes></vote>
|Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's constitutional referendum will fail. 
|{{u|Owlman}}
|21 November 2016
|4 December 2016
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred93 closed=yes></vote>
|The [[Democrat]]s will retain control of the [[White House]] in 2016, but [[Congress]] will remain divided as is or be fully Republican ([[US Senate|Senate]] at least 51-49). <!--Bet ends when results of 2016 election are known-->
|{{u|Miekal}}
|3 June 2014
|9 Nov 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred181 closed=yes></vote>
|Fidel Castro will pass away in 2016.
|{{u|Vulpius}}
|14 August 2016
|31 December 2016
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred182 closed=yes></vote>
|Donald Trump will lose at least four states which have long been considered safe-Republican and have not gone for a Democrat since 1976 or 1964.
|{{u|NeverTrump!}}
|9 October 2016
|8 November 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong<ref>Ironically, Trump flipped several safe-Democratic states.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred179 closed=yes></vote>
|Donald Trump will become the President of the US.
|{{u|Owlman}}
|22 May 2016
|8 November 2016
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred97 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Hillary Clinton]] will not become President in [[2016 U.S. Presidential Election|2016]].
|{{u|Serocco}}
|22 June 2014
|8 November 2016
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred52 closed=yes></vote>
|Hillary Clinton will be elected president in 2016.
|{{u|Prodigal}}
|7 April 2013
|8 November 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred152 closed=yes></vote>
|The Democrats will retake the Senate in the 2016 election. Either with an outright majority or the aid of independents caucusing with them.
|{{u|Avengerofthe BoN}}
|27 August 2015
|8 November 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong<ref>Nope, the GOP retained control of the Senate.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred151 closed=yes></vote>
|The GOP will retain control of the house in the 2016 elections.
|{{u|Avengerofthe BoN}}
|26 August 2015
|8 November 2016
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred145 closed=yes></vote>
|{{wpl|Daniel Ortega|Daniel Ortega Saavedra}} will run again in - and win - the 2016 Nicaraguan Presidential Election
|{{u|Avengerofthe BoN}}
|23 August 2015
|2016
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred150 closed=yes></vote>
|The GOP will go into its 2016 convention without a clear winner of the presidential nomination.
|{{u|AgingHippie}}
|25 August 2015
|18 July 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong<ref>Trump was the clear winner.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred148 closed=yes></vote>
|Marco Rubio will be the Vice Presidential running mate for the Republican nominee in 2016.
|{{u|Serocco}}
|25 August 2015
|21 July 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong<ref>Twas [[Mike Pence]].</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred147 closed=yes></vote>
|Alan Grayson and Russ Feingold will be elected Senators in 2016.
|{{u|Serocco}}
|25 August 2015
|8 November 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong<ref>Alan Grayson lost in the Democratic primary election while Russ Feingold lost the general election.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred127 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Hillary Clinton]] will '''not''' win the [[Democratic Party]]'s nomination for the 2016 presidential election.
|{{u|FuzzyCatPotato}}
|18 March 2015
|28 July 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred153 closed=yes></vote>
|Elizabeth Warren will endorse the eventual winner of the Democratic nomination before endorsing any other candidate
|{{u|Avengerofthe BoN}}
|28 August 2015
|28 July 2016
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>She endorsed Clinton before the end of the primaries.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred169 closed=yes></vote>
|As long as she's healthy, Hilary Clinton will become president in 2016 ''and 2020''. (Since 1960, the US has had 10 presidents, and 5 of them did 2 terms. The last 1 term president left office over 23 years ago and his dumber son won twice.)
|{{u|Civic Cat}}
|26 November 2015
|
3 November 2020
 8 November 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong, She lost the 2016 election and did not run in 2020.
|-
|<vote poll=pred107 closed=yes></vote>
|The next [[President of the United States]] will be a woman.
|[[User:Father Vivian O'Blivion|Father Vivian O'Blivion]]
|24 July 2014
|8 November 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred141 closed=yes></vote>
|The democratic nominee (unless it is [[Hillary Clinton]]) will win the Presidency. The GOP will retain control of the House but lose the Senate (this includes a 50/50 split with Democratic VP or independents caucusing with the Democrats). If Hillary is the nominee the rest still stands but the presidency is a tossup (not more than 51% of the popular vote for either candidate)
|{{u|Avengerofthe BoN}}
|21 August 2015
|8 November 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong<ref>Hillary Clinton lost but the GOP retained the Senate</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred164 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Joe Biden]] will '''not''' be a candidate for President in the 2016 elections. To clarify: he won't run for the democratic nomination. Nor will his nomination be the result of a deadlocked or "brokered" convention <!-- Tentative right, Biden announced he will not be running on 21 Oct http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/21/politics/joe-biden-not-running-2016-election/ --> 
|{{u|Avengerofthe BoN}}
|16 October 2015
|26 July 2016
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred139 closed=yes></vote>
|Bernie Sanders will defeat le Donald in the 2016 US presidential election and become president.
|{{u|PacWalker}}
|20 August 2015
|26 July 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong<ref>Hillary was the Democratic nominee</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred133 closed=yes></vote>
|The [[Conservative Party]] will hold its EU-exit referendum in 2017 (or latest by the end of 2018), but the UK will vote to stay in it
|{{u|Miekal}}
|7 May 2015
|23 June 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong<ref>they left</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred138 closed=yes></vote>
|Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee for President.
|{{u|Paravant}}
|20 August 2015
|28 June 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong <ref>he has endorsed Clinton</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred178 closed=yes></vote>
|The Democrats will hold a brokered convention and Hillary will emerge as the nominee unless she is indicted.
|{{u|Owlman}}
|23 April 2016
|12 July 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong <ref>arguably right as the convention will come down to superdelegates and was "brokered" in the sense that Sanders and Clinton reached a deal. Also, Clinton will emerge as the nominee.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred144 closed=yes></vote>
|{{wpl|Mariano Rajoy|Mariano Rajoy Brey}} will not be Prime Minister of Spain after the 2015 elections
|{{u|Avengerofthe BoN}}
|22 August 2015
|26 June 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong<ref>No party won enough votes to appoint a PM.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred180 closed=yes></vote>
|If the UK votes to remain in the EU, Nigel Farage will claim electoral fraud
|{{u|139.222.251.164}}
|20 June 2016
|23 June 2016
|style="background:#808080; color:#FFF"|Moot, UK voted leave
|-
|-
|<vote poll=pred105 closed=yes></vote>
|The Kurds will achieve independence from [[Iraq]] before 2016.
|{{u|Serocco}}
|7 July 2014
|14 June 2016(sorry for the delay)
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred177 closed=yes></vote>
|Trump will avoid a brokered convention and become the Republican nominee.
|{{u|Owlman}}
|23 April 2016
|3 May 2016
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred158 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Donald Trump|The Trump]] will '''not''' [[end of the world|win the Republican nomination]] in 2016.
|{{u|Avengerofthe BoN}}
|17 September 2015
|3 May 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred126 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Jeb Bush]] will not win the [[Republican Party]]'s nomination for the 2016 presidential election.
|{{u|Serocco}}
|18 March 2015
|20 February 2016
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred69 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Chris Christie]] will win the Republican nomination for President in 2016.
|{{u|Wehpudicabok}}
|26 September 2013
|10 February 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred110 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Kim Jong Un]] will not be leader of [[North Korea]] by the end of 2015.
|{{u|Miekal}}
|6 October 2014
|31 December 2015
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred156 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Bernie Sanders]] will win the New Hampshire primary.
|{{u|Paravant}}
|6 September 2015
|9 February 2016
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred114 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Ebola]] becomes [[pandemic]] before the end of 2015. <!-- preliminary "no" cite  http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-01/uog-nmp011315.php -->
|{{u|JRock1203}}
|16 October 2014
|31 December 2015
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred140 closed=yes></vote>
|The mess in Ukraine will be more or less sorted out by end of 2015.
|{{u|Arisboch}}
|21 August 2015
|31 December 2015
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred50 closed=yes></vote>
|A [[chemtrail]]er (or a group of them) will cause a security incident at an airport, leading to a delayed flight or diverted landing, by December 31, 2015.
|{{u|Sophie Wilder}}
|14 March 2013
|31 December 2015
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred146 closed=yes></vote>
|[[El Salvador]] will surpass [[Honduras]] and become the country with the most homicides per 100 000 inhabitants for the year 2015.
|{{u|Avengerofthe BoN}}
|24 August 2015
|31 December 2015
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>[https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/01/07/el-salvador-homicide-rate-honduras-guatemala-illegal-immigration-to-united-states/78358042/ El Salvador: World's new murder capital]. USA Today. January 7, 2016.</ref><ref>[https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?year_high_desc=true Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people)]. World Bank.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred43 closed=yes></vote>
|By January 1, 2020, at least one [[Genetic engineering|genetically engineered]] animal will be approved for human consumption in the United States.
|{{u|Tweenk}}
|6 January 2013
|19 Novemeber 2015
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred124 closed=yes></vote>
|RationalWiki will experience a May 2011 level [[HCM]] by the middle of 2016.
|{{u|miekal}}
|10 January 2015
|28 January 2016 
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred128 closed=yes></vote>
|The missing Malaysian airliner will not be found in 2015
|{{u|AgingHippie}}
|28 March 2015
|1 January 2016
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred168 closed=yes></vote>
|Leaked scripts or spoilers of ''Star Wars: The Force Awakens'' will hit the Internet before the movie's release.
|{{u|Noir LeSable}}
|6 November 2015
|18 December 2015
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred167 closed=yes></vote>
|If the [[NDP]] does not win the 2015 elections, or fails to reach a coalition agreement, Thomas Mulcair will resign as Leader.
|{{u|Serocco}}
|19 October 2015
|20 October 2015
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong<ref>Mulclair not resigining: "[http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-tom-mulcair-1.3278711 Tom Mulcair stays on as New Democrats suffer a crushing blow]", ''CBCNews''</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred166 closed=yes></vote>
|Should the Liberals win a minority government in Canada on Monday, Andrew Schlafly will make a comment on Conservapedia about liberals seizing power through undemocratic means.
|{{u|AgingHippie}}
|17 October 2015
|20 October 2015
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong<ref>No direct statement from Schlafly, but Conservapedia blame seems to lie more fully on how the Conservaive Party of Canada had "largely abandoned socially conservative issues and pursued the dead-end of fiscal reform alone," and how "Millions of new, mostly young voters gave liberals their victory with a 39.5% popular vote in Canada, while the conservative vote remained stagnant." </ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred165 closed=yes></vote>
|The Liberals will win a minority government in Monday's Canadian election.
|{{u|AgingHippie}}
|17 October 2015
|20 October 2015
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"| Wrong<ref>Liberals won a landslide majority: "[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015 Results of the Canadian federal election, 2015]", ''Wikipedia''</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred129 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Liberal Party of Canada|Justin Trudeau]] will replace [[New Democratic Party|Thomas Mulcair]] as the Leader of the Opposition after the 2015 Canadian general election.
|{{u|Serocco}}
|28 March 2015
|20 October 2015
|style="background:#F00; color:#000"|Wrong<ref>Trudeau won: "[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015 Results of the Canadian federal election, 2015]", ''Wikipedia''</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred98 closed=yes></vote>
|The [[New Democratic Party]] will return to its third party status after the 2015 election.
|{{u|Serocco}}
|22 June 2014
|20 October 2015
|style="background:#0F0; color:#FFF"|Right<ref>NDP lost half of its seats and fell to third: "[http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-shut-out-of-atlantic-canada-as-liberals-surge-in-early-polls/article26878435/ NDP reduced to third party status as support collapses]", ''The Globe and Mail''</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred94 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Stephen Harper]] will remain as [[Canadian]] Prime Minister after the 2015 election.
|{{u|Serocco}}
|10 June 2014
|20 October 2015
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong<ref>Trudeau won: "[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015 Results of the Canadian federal election, 2015]", ''Wikipedia''</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred118 closed=yes></vote>
|The budget deficit will increase more per year (in [[inflation]]-adjusted dollars) for the last two years of [[Obama]]'s term (where [[Republican]]s control both Houses) than the six where they didn't. 
|{{u|Ikanreed}}
|17 November 2014
|19 October 2015
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF"|Wrong<ref>[http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/15/news/economy/budget-deficit/index.html welp.]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred108 closed=yes></vote>
|During the next year, ground troops of the [[United States Army]] or Marines will not engage in combat with [[ISIS]] to any significant degree. 
|[[User:Marlow|Marlow]]
|29 September 2014
|28 September 2015
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>Announcement to begin "direct action on ground" only occurred at the end of October [http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/sec-carter-direct-u-s-action-ground-iraq-syria-n452131]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred101 closed=yes></vote>
|Malcolm Turnbull will again be [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal Party]] leader prior to the next Australian general election.
||[[User:PeterL|PeterL]]
|1 July 2014
|September 2015
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred99 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Tony Abbott]] will not win re-election as Prime Minister of Australia.
||{{u|Serocco}}
|26 June 2014
|September 2015
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred142 closed=yes></vote>
|In the new elections in Greece Golden Dawn and/or other right wing extremist parties will make significant gains (more than five percentage points) - though I would wish the contrary to be true
|{{u|Avengerofthe BoN}}
|21 August 2015
|20 September 2015
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF;"|(Thankfully) Wrong<ref>[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_legislative_election,_September_2015]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred122 closed=yes></vote>
|Despite international support, the Umbrella Revolution will fail to both achieve universal suffrage for [[Hong Kong]] and force C.Y. Leung to resign by 2016. 
|{{u|Noir LeSable}}
|30 November 2014
|15 December 2014
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred135 closed=yes></vote>
|Mike Huckabee will be the first contender to drop out of the GOP race
|{{u|Psygremlin}}
|24 May 2015
|11 September 2015
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred149 closed=yes></vote>
|Rick Perry will drop out of the presidential race within two months
|{{u|Avengerofthe BoN}}
|25 August 2015
|11 September 2015
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/rick-perry-drops-out-2016-race</ref><ref>http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-34227778</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred66 closed=yes></vote>
|The 2016 nominees will be [[Rand Paul]] and [[Hillary Clinton]].  Between now and then, Rand Paul will successfully remake his image from the ground up and will run as far away from the [[Tea Party]] as he can get and run as a moderate Republican voice of reason and peace ''a la'' Mark Hatfield.  Clinton's running mate will be [[DINO#Democrats accused of being DINOs|Joe Manchin]].  The Clinton-Manchin ticket will attempt to run against Rand Paul ''from the right''.  They will fail.
|{{u|Secret Squirrel}}
|23 September 2013
|8 November 2016
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred75 closed=yes></vote>
|Rick Snyder will make a serious run at the [[2016 Republican Party presidential nomination|Republican presidential nomination in 2016]] as the disaster of the [[Fiscal cliff|shutdown]] pokes the party to move to the [[centrism|center]].
|{{u|PowderSmokeAndLeather}}
|7 October 2013
|Sometime between 2013 and 2015
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred137 closed=yes></vote>
|Fast track legislation on Obama's trade deals will pass before the end of July 2015.
|{{u|Serocco}}
|June 11 2015
|August 2 2015
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred0038 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Bobby Jindal]] will run in the 2016 Republican primary.	
|{{u|Tyrannis}}
|13 November 2012
|June 24 2015
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred136 closed=yes></vote>
|President [[Recep Tayyip Erdogan]] will '''not''' receive the super-majority needed to change the constitution in the June 7th election.
|{{u|Serocco}}
|June 5 2015
|June 7 2015
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred87 closed=yes></vote>
|No horse will win the Triple Crown in the next 5 years.
|{{u|AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge}}
|28 January 2014
|6 June 2015
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF;"|Wrong<ref>[http://www.nbcnews.com/news/sports/american-pharoah-claims-triple-crown-n371041 in a year and a half it was won]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred0007 closed=yes></vote>
|The [[Lib Dems]] will be almost wiped out as a political force in the next UK election.
|[[User:Bob M|Bob M]]
|19 December 2010
|8 May 2015
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred0002 closed=yes></vote>
|After the next UK general election, [[Ed Miliband]] will not become the [[Prime Minister of the United Kingdom|Prime Minister]].
|[[User:Dalek|Dalek]]
|18 December 2010
|8 May 2015
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>He resigned as party leader, after Tory's majority win</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred104 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Nick Clegg]] will not be the Deputy Prime Minister after the 2015 UK General Election.
|{{u|Serocco}}
|7 July 2014
|8 May 2015
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>He resigned as party leader, after Tory's majority win</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred130 closed=yes></vote>
|The [[United Kingdom general election, 2015|British Election in 2015]] will end in a hung parliament, leading to either a minority government or another coalition.
|{{u|Serocco}}
|16 April 2015
|8 May 2015
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF;"|Wrong<ref>Tories won an outright majority</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred90 closed=yes></vote>
|[[UKIP]] will take over as the 3rd main party in the UK following the 2015 general election.
|{{u|Psygremlin}}
|24 May 2014
|8 May 2015
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred132 closed=yes></vote>
|In the UK Election, [[Labour Party|Labour]] will form the government instead of the [[Conservative Party (UK)|Conservatives]] but will not have enough for a majority and contrary to statements by its leadership will be open to a deal or coalition involving the [[SNP]] to get one. 
|{{u|Miekal}}
|7 May 2015
|8 May 2015
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred123 closed=yes></vote>
|Benjamin Netanyahu will not be the Prime Minister of [[Israel]] after the March 2015 elections.
|{{u|Serocco}}
|1 January 2015
|18 March 2015
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF;"|Wrong<ref>[http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-elections-isaac-herzog-concedes-benjamin-netanyahu-n325471 Israel Elections: Netanyahu Victory Could Stall Peace Process, Analysts Say]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred125 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Australia]] will win the 2015 Cricket World Cup. Without losing a match.
|{{u|Psygremlin}}
|1 February 2015
|27 February 2015
|style="background:#F00; color:#FFF;"|Wrong<ref>Lost to New Zealand in the preliminary round. But they did go on to win the Cup.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred111 closed=yes></vote>
|Contrary to the [[bullshit]] [[conspiracy theorists]] are throwing around, Americans will not be implanted with mandatory microchips by the end of 2014.
|{{u|TemplarJLS}}
|6 October 2014
|1 January 2015
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred53 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Joseph Kony]] will not be caught by December 31, 2014.
|{{u|Man of Perspective}}
|11 April 2013
|1 January 2015
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred29 closed=yes></vote>
|On the day Peter Shumlin ceases to be the governor of [[Vermont]], the Vermont Yankee [[nuclear power]] plant will still be operating.
|[[User:Tweenk|Tweenk]]
|28 March 2012
|29 December 2014
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong<ref>[http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/05/us/vermont-yankee-nuclear-plant-begins-slow-process-of-closing.html Nukes are expensive, unfortunately.]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred82 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Conservapedia]] will be taken down by [[Andrew Schlafly]] before the next Conservapedia Day (Nov. 21, 2014).
|{{u|LArron}}
|21 November 2013
|21 November 2014
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred115 closed=yes></vote>
|The 2014 Oakland Raiders will join the 2008 Detroit Lions in the NFL 0-16 club.
|{{u|AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge}}
|30 October 2014
|20 November 2014
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong<ref>[http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=400554293 Derek Carr-led Raiders shock Chiefs to end losing streak at 16], ESPN</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred112 closed=yes></vote> 
|Catalonia will hold some form of vote related to independence from [[Spain]] by the end of the year. A Yes vote will not result in independence.
|{{u|Miekal}}
|14 October 2014
|9 November 2014
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>Calatans [http://www.france24.com/en/20141110-catalonia-symbolic-independence-vote-referendum-large-support-barcelona-spain/ chose overwhelmingly to separate from Spain in a 'symbolic' referendum.]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred103 closed=yes></vote>	
|[[John Boehner]] will resign as Speaker of the [[House of Representatives|House]] if he does not get a Republican majority in the Senate in 2014.	
|{{u|Serocco}}
|7 July 2014
|4 November 2014
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred102 closed=yes></vote>
|Rick Scott will lose to Charlie Crist in the 2014 [[Florida]] election.
|{{u|Serocco}}
|3 July 2014
|4 November 2014
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred92 closed=yes></vote>
|The Republicans will get a majority in the United States Senate in 2014. 
|{{u|Serocco}}
|3 June 2014
|4 November 2014
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred74 closed=yes></vote>
|The Democratic Party will retake the House of Representatives in 2014.
|{{u|Osaka Sun}}
|6 October 2013
|4 November 2014
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred48 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Marijuana]] will be legalized in two or more additional US states ([[WA]] and [[CO]] don't count) before it is legalized anywhere in Canada. This could be a long bet.
|{{u|Ochotonaprinceps}}
|12 March 2013
|4 November 2014
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>[http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/04/upshot/marijuana-on-the-ballot-in-florida-alaska-oregon-and-dc.html?abt=0002&abg=0 Alaska, Oregon and DC made it first.]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred0040 closed=yes></vote>
|In the 2014 Senate elections, Democrats lose [[South Dakota]] (Johnson) and [[Arkansas]] (Pryor), while they (or an independent) pick up [[Maine]] (Collins) (note that this doesn't mean that they will only lose those seats and/or that they will only pick up those seats).
|{{u|Mr. Anon}}
|28 November 2012
|4 November 2014
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong<ref>A Sister of Maine, losing? [http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/11/04/susan-collins-wins-fourth-senate-term-maine/vbrYsIs8KvwrrUezIi9c8O/story.html Nah.]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred86 closed=yes></vote>
|The [[San Francisco]] Giants will win the 2014 World Series.
|{{u|AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge}}
|28 January 2014
|29 October 2014
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred68 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Rob Ford]] will not be re-elected as mayor of Toronto in 2014, either through the escalation of the video scandal or the entrance of a centre-right candidate(s) to [[Crazification factor#The ultimate test: Hogtown|intentionally fragment his support]].
|{{u|Osaka Sun}}
|25 September 2013
|27 October 2014
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred109 closed=yes></vote>
|Catalonia will manage to hold its independence referendum in November, but Spain will not recognize the result if it is a yes and either way none of the issues that led to this will be resolved. 
|[[User:Miekal|Miekal]]
|4 October 2014
|14 October 2014
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong<ref>Catalonia backtracked on a snap independence vote.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred100 closed=yes></vote>
|When the [[SCOTUS]] rules on the Tenth Circuit [[same-sex marriage]] ban cases, it will rule in favor of gay rights.
||[[Special:Contributions/63.224.252.18|63.224.252.18]]
|30 June 2014
|6 October 2014
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>[http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/10/The-Same-Sex-Marriage-Fight-Is-Over/381146/ In a very interesting fashion.]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred91 closed=yes></vote>
|Scottish independence will not be achieved in 2014.
|{{u|Serocco}}
|3 June 2014
|18 September 2014
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred89 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Russia]]n military forces will not enter any part of [[Ukraine]] (aside from Crimea obviously) within the next year.
|{{u|Marlow}}
|22 March 2014
|27 August 2014
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred0020 closed=yes></vote>
|The [[Arab Spring|wave of protests]] sweeping the [[Middle East]] and North [[Africa]] will inspire a popular uprising against the US-backed Iraqi government of [[Nouri al-Maliki]], putting Obama in a real hard place. 
|[[User:P-Foster|P-Foster]]
|26 February 2011
|10 June 2014
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right (with caveat)<ref>[http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/10895006/Timeline-How-al-Qaeda-regained-its-hold-in-Iraq.html Depending on your definition of "popular uprising."]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred83 closed=yes></vote>
|Before the end of 2014, at least four additional US [[state]]s that, as of the time of this prediction, currently ban [[same-sex marriage]], will have their state laws suspended by federal judges (as with [[Utah]] and [[Oklahoma]], currently). [[Alabama]] will ''not'' be among these.
|{{u|Ochotonaprinceps}}
|15 January 2014
|13 May 2014
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>[[Virginia]] (13 February), [[Texas]] (26 February), [[Michigan]] (21 March), [[Idaho]] (13 May), and more.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred88 closed=yes></vote>
|
Russians in
 Crimea will decide to join the Russian Federation on 16 March, 2014.
|[[User:Autumnus Linnus|Autumnus Linnus]]
|15 March 2014
|16 March 2014
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred56 closed=yes></vote>
|In 2013, there will be at least one serious, in-person, direct attempt by [[gun nut]]s on the life of a US political figure, mayor or above, with pro-[[gun control]] views. Furthermore, there will be "XYZ Shooting" Truthers posting within 24 hours on the Internet, coming up with conspiracies invoking [[false flag operation]]s to further Obama's plans to take away all our guns.
|{{u|Ochotonaprinceps}}
|1 June 2013
|1 January 2014
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred0039 closed=yes></vote>
|At some point before the end of 2013 a serious attempt by members of the community will be made to fork RW.
|{{u|PeterL}}
|16 November 2012
|1 January 2014
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred0012 closed=yes></vote>
|North Korea will not seriously invade the [[South Korea|South]] at any point during the next three years.
|[[User:Bob M|Bob M]]
|23 December 2010
|1 January 2014
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>They haven't. That we know of.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred65 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Tim Tebow]] will not start another game as quarterback for the remainder of his NFL Career.
|{{u|k61824}}
|3 September 2013
|30 December 2013
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>[http://college-football.si.com/2013/12/30/espn-tim-tebow-sec-network/ Goodbye!]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred78 closed=yes></vote>
|Australia will regain the the Ashes in the upcoming series.
|{{u|Psygremlin}}
|31 October 2013
|17 December 2013
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>Australia won the 3rd Test by 150 runs, to take an [http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-17/third-ashes-test-day-five-live-blog/5161286 unbeatable 3-0 lead in the series.]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred54 closed=yes></vote>
|It will be discovered that Joseph Kony has been dead since before the [[Kony 2012]] video were made.
|{{u|Revolverman}}
|11 April 2013
|20 November 2013
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong<ref>It appears Kony is [http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-25027616 seriously ill with something] and is trying to guarantee his safety in surrender negotiations.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred63 closed=yes></vote>
|September 2013 will overtake the place of July 2013 as [[Conservapedia talk:Active users#Update July 2013|the second month with the least number of edits on Conservapedia]].
|{{u|Bill Rawls}}
|24 August 2013
|14 November 2013
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>October was worse than September.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred72 closed=yes></vote>
|The |Los Angeles Dodgers will not win the 2013 World Series, even if they become the NL Champions.
|{{u|AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge}}
|3 October 2013
|18 October 2013
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred76 closed=yes></vote>
|The Republicans will "win" the shutdown, eventually forcing the Democrats to compromise with them and defund [[Obamacare]].
|{{u|brxbrx}}
|7 October 2013
|16 October 2013
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong<ref name=shutdown />
|-
|<vote poll=pred70 closed=yes></vote>
|The October 2013 U.S. federal shutdown will not fully end before the 20th of October. (Note that the U.S. will not have quite run out of money by then, even though the Treasury's so-called "extraordinary measures" will have ended.)
|{{u|PeterL}}
|3 October 2013
|16 October 2013
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong<ref name=shutdown>[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-24559869 Ceiling lifted hours before default.] The Republicans did not achieve their original goals.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred71 closed=yes></vote>
|The United States will hit its debt ceiling on the 17th of October, however, President Obama will order the Treasury to disregard the ceiling.
|{{u|Man of Perspective}}
|3 October 2013
|16 October 2013
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong<ref name=shutdown />
|-
|<vote poll=pred44 closed=yes></vote>
|Barack Obama will have to be present at one more [[:Category:Civilian gun massacres|mass shooting]] memorial before the end of his second term.
|{{u|Osaka Sun}}
|10 January 2013
|23 September 2013
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>[http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/23/us/obama-to-attend-memorial-service-for-victims-of-navy-yard-shooting.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimes Not even a year in.]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred45 closed=yes></vote>
|The Los Angeles Dodgers will lose the NL West title by at least 5 games.
|{{u|AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge}}
|20 January 2013
|20 September 2013
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong<ref>[http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130919&content_id=61131942&vkey=pr_la&c_id=la Won by 11]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred51 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Tony Abbott]] will win the next Australian election.
|{{u|Man of Perspective}}
|6 April 2013
|7 September 2013
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred60 closed=yes></vote>
|Tim Tebow will not start a game at quarterback for the Patriots during the 2013-14 NFL season.
|{{u|PowderSmokeAndLeather}}
|1 July 2013
|31 August 2013
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred47 closed=yes></vote>
|[[England]] will retain the Ashes in 2013.
|{{u|Voxhumana}}
|11 March 2013
|25 August 2013
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>Both [http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cricket/23812495 men] and [http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cricket/23912488 women.]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred0001 closed=yes></vote>
|Full [[same-sex marriage|civil marriage rights]] will be extended to same-sex couples under the [[Conservative Party|Conservative]]-Liberal Democrat [[United Kingdom general election, 2010|coalition government]].
|[[User:Dalek|Dalek]]
|18 December 2010
|17 July 2013
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>[https://www.gov.uk/government/news/same-sex-marriage-becomes-law Received royal assent], brought into force for both [[England]] and [[Wales]] in 2014.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred0037 closed=yes></vote>
|Zynga will be bought out by [[Facebook]] by June 2013.
|[[User:AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge|AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge]]
|5 November 2012
|1 July 2013
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred58 closed=yes></vote>
|The United States Supreme Court will strike down [[DOMA]] and [[Prop 8]].
|{{u|PowderSmokeAndLeather}}
|15 June 2013
|26 June 2013
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred0041 closed=yes></vote>
|Tim Tebow will never start a game for the [[NYC|New York]] Jets.
|{{u|TheoryOfPractice}}
|17 December 2012
|29 April 2013
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred46 closed=yes></vote>
|The next pope will be from [[South America]].
|{{u|PeterL}}
|11 March 2013
|13 March 2013
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>Pope [[Francis I]] was formerly the Archbishop of Buenos Aires.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred0042 closed=yes></vote>
|No deal will be reached on the fiscal cliff by tomorrow (Dec. 31).  The GOP effectively taxes the entire country, and [[Roosevelt Recession|history repeats itself]].
|{{u|Osaka Sun}}
|30 December 2012
|1 January 2013
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred00015 closed=yes></vote>
|In 2012, the Supreme Court will rule on 
''Perry v. Schwarzenegger''
 ''Perry v. Brown'', and find laws banning same-sex marriage unconstitutional.
|[[User:Blue|Blue]]
|5 January 2011
|1 January 2013
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong<ref>2012 came and went without a ruling.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred0034 closed=yes></vote>
|All the Mayan bullshit slated for [[2012 apocalypse|December 2012]] will actually come to pass.
|[[User:Edgerunner76|Edgerunner76]]
|01 November 2012
|22 December 2012
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred00019 closed=yes></vote>
|[[2011 Wisconsin protests|Wisconsin]]-style [[Right to work|union-busting]] and protests will occur in a number of other states as the looming state budget crisis becomes the number one issue.
|[[User:Nebuchadnezzar|Nebuchadnezzar]]
|23 February 2011
|11 December 2012
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>[http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/11/us-usa-michigan-unions-idUSBRE9BA1AG20131211 Michigan.]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred0035 closed=yes></vote>
|The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will have at least a Tropical Storm Alpha.
|[[User:Edgerunner76|Edgerunner76]]
|1 November 2012
|30 November 2012
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred0036 closed=yes></vote>
|The Atlanta Falcons will go undefeated in the regular season.
|[[User:AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge|AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge]]
|5 November 2012
|11 November 2012
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong<ref>[http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2012111106/2012/REG10/falcons@saints#menu=gameinfo&tab=recap Graham, Saints hand Falcons first loss of season], NFL.com</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred0032 closed=yes></vote>
|The Democrats will maintain control of the Senate after the [[2012 U.S. Presidential Election|2012 U.S. elections]], even if it requires the [[VP]]'s casting vote. <small>(This includes any independents that caucus with the Dems, such as Bernie Sanders and possibly Angus King.)</small>
|[[User:Rpeh|rpeh]]
|16 July 2012
|6 November 2012
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred0028 closed=yes></vote>
|In the 2012 U.S. elections, Obama will win a second term, the GOP will win a majority in the Senate, and while the outcome in the House is uncertain, it will be within fifteen seats of an even split between the two major caucuses.
|[[User:AD|AD]]
|09 February 2012
|6 November 2012
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong<ref>President right, both House and Senate wrong.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred0011 closed=yes></vote>
|Barack Obama will win the 2012 US Presidential Election.
|[[User:SuspectedReplicant|SuspectedReplicant]]
|23 December 2010
|6 November 2012
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred31 closed=yes></vote>
|[[Greece]] will leave the [[eurozone]] by mid-2012, placing the world into another recession.
|[[User:Osaka Sun|Osaka Sun]]
|12 May 2012
|1 September 2012
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred30 closed="yes"></vote>
|The Affordable Care Act will be struck down, along with the entirety of the law, kicking health care reform back another generation.
|[[User:Mr. Anon|Mr. Anon]]
|1 April 2012
|28 June 2012
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred0026 closed="yes"></vote>
|The Supreme Court will strike down the individual mandate in the Affordable Care Act, but will not strike down the entire law, when it renders its decision in June 2012.
|[[User:Blue|Blue]]
|15 November 2011
|28 June 2012
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred0027 closed="yes"></vote>
|The [[2012_U.S._Presidential_Election#The_GOP_race|Republican primary]] for the 2012 US Presidential election will come down to [[Santorum]] and [[Romney]]; Romney will win this but will fail to defeat Obama, and will be attacked by the [[Religious Right]] while he's at it.
|[[User:PeterL|PeterL]]
|16 January 2012
|10 April 2012
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong<ref>[[Newt Gingrich]] stayed in longer, and [[Ron Paul]] stayed in until the end</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred0008 closed="yes"></vote>
|Hillary Clinton will the Democratic VP nominee in 2012, replacing [[Joe Biden]]. It will be a poorly kept secret that the move is to set her up to run for President in 2016. 
|[[User:MDB|MDB]]
|21 December 2010
|3 April 2012
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred0022 closed="yes"></vote>
|[[Rick Perry]] will be the Republican nominee for president in the 2012 election.
|[[User:P-Foster|P-Foster]]
|6 July 2011
|19 January 2012
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong<ref name="Romney"/>
|-
|<vote poll=pred0004 closed="yes"></vote>
|The 2012 Republican nomination for President will go to a man. And in order to be a little bolder: [[Sarah Palin]] won't even run.
|[[User:Röstigraben|Röstigraben]]
|19 December 2010
|4 January 2012
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref name="Romney">[[Mitt Romney|Mitt "That ''hair!''" Romney]].</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred0003 closed="yes"></vote>
|The 2012 Republican nomination for President will go to a woman. (Edit: this doesn't have to be Sarah Palin!)
|[[User:Blue|Blue]]
|18 December 2010
|4 January 2012
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong<ref name="Romney"/>
|-
|<vote poll=pred00018 closed="yes"></vote>
|At least two more autocracies will be overthrown (besides [[Tunisia]], [[Libya]] and [[Egypt]], of course), by year's end 2011. [[Bahrain]], [[Yemen]], [[Iran]], or a wild card could be in the mix.
|[[User:Blue|Blue]]
|23 February 2011
|1 January 2012
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong<ref>A few dictators teetered, but no more fell.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred0025 closed="yes"></vote>
|[[Herman Cain]] might not get the nod to lead the GOP in the next election, but he will not pull out of the race because of allegations of sexual abuse.
|[[User:B♭maj7|B♭maj7]]
|9 November 2011
|3 December 2011
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred0009 closed="yes"></vote>
|[[Citizendium]] will not continue beyond October 2011. 
|[[User:FreeThought|FreeThought]]
|22 December 2010
|1 November 2011
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong
|-
|<vote poll=pred0005 closed="yes"></vote>
|North Korea will invade South Korea in a full-scale 2011 summer offensive. Thousands die before North Korea finally withdraws back to its border.
|[[User:FreeThought|FreeThought]]
|19 December 2010
|1 September 2011
|style="background:#F00; color:#fff;"|Wrong<ref>Summer came and went without a North Korean invasion.</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred0024 closed="yes"></vote>
|Some way, somehow, under [[New tone#Averting shutdown|whatever necessary pretext]], the U.S.'s debt ceiling will be raised or sidestepped before the deadline on August 2.
|[[User:ListenerX|ListenerX]]
|12 July 2011
|2 August 2011
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right
|-
|<vote poll=pred0023 closed="yes"></vote>
|In regards to the case of [[RobSmith]] versus [[Conservapedia:Conservative|User:Conservative]], Ken will emerge triumphant, and Rob will either: 1. leave in disgust or 2. get dressed down and have his rights removed by [[Andy]] for airing dirty laundry in public where an important contributor is concerned.
|[[User:P-Foster|P-Foster]]
|11 July 2011
|31 July 2011
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>[[RobSmith#Going toe-to-toe with Ken|RobSmith goes toe-to-toe with Ken]]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred00014 closed="yes"></vote>
|RationalWiki will have a crisis of conscience/mission mid-2011, which will result in a major refactoring of the [[guidelines]].
|[[User:Human|Human]]
|5 January 2011
|17 May 2011
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>[[Forum:Plan_of_action_for_user_rights_and_moderation|The New Wiki Order]]</ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred00017 closed="yes"></vote>
|[[Labour Party|Labour]] will win the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election by more than 5% over the Lib Dems, with the Tories in a distant 3rd place.
|[[User:SuspectedReplicant|SuspectedReplicant]]
|12 January 2011
|13 January 2011
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right<ref>[http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/constituency/1206/oldham-east-and-saddleworth Constituency profile: Oldham East and Saddleworth], ''The Guardian'' </ref>
|-
|<vote poll=pred00016 closed="yes"></vote>
|[[Conservapedia:TK|TK]] is not coming back to Conservapedia. (Speculation: Andy avoided a big ugly show by asking TK to let Andy change his password or blocked him from the site in some other way....)
|[[User:P-Foster|P-Foster]]
|5 January 2011
|17 December 2010<ref>No, really.</ref>
|style="background:#0F0; color:#000;"|Right (excluding speculation)<ref>[[TK#Death|TK's death]]</ref>
|}

==To tally it up..==
==Notes==
{{reflist|group=note}}

==Footnotes==
{{reflist|2}}
[[Category:RationalWiki|{{PAGENAME}}]]

Categories: RationalWiki