LessWrong

<nowiki></nowiki>{{silver}}
[[File:LessWrong.jpg|right|165px|thumb|The LessWrong logo, apparently stolen from [[NATO]]]]
{{LessWrong}}
{{cquote|Yeah, I was on LessWrong for quite a while, in a very low-key way. My period of time there basically went "These are people talking about interesting stuff. Admittedly they have a few odd beliefs like the [[cryonic]] thing, but interesting people." "…apart from this virulent [[racist]] who keeps talking about [[IQ]]…" "…and all these people who keep talking about being ‘[[Pick-up artist|Pick-Up Artists]]'…" "my God, this place needs to be burned down and the earth salted!"|||Andrew Hickey<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20181218021541/https://andrewhickeywriter.tumblr.com/post/145197815941/not-a-review-of-neoreaction-a-basilisk Not a Review of Neoreaction a Basilisk] (May 31, 2016; 9:30 am) ''Andrew Hickey'' (archived from December 18, 2018).</ref>}}
'''LessWrong''' is a community blog focused on "refining the art of human [[rationality]]." To this end, it focuses on identifying and overcoming [[bias]], improving judgment and problem-solving, and speculating about the future. The blog is based on the ideas of [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]], a research fellow for the '''Machine Intelligence Research Institute''' ('''MIRI'''; previously known as the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence, and then the Singularity Institute). Many members of LessWrong share Yudkowsky's interests in [[transhumanism]], [[artificial intelligence]] (AI), the [[Singularity]], and [[cryonics]].

LessWrong 2.0 was created in 2017 to reinvigorate the "failing website"<ref name=lightcone/> (that still exists). LessWrong 2.0 (a.k.a., LessWrong Team) took on tasks external to the LessWrong website. In 2021, it was reorganized as '''Lightcone Infrastructure'''.<ref name=lightcone>[https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eR7Su77N2nK3e5YRZ/the-lesswrong-team-is-now-lightcone-infrastructure-come-work-3 The LessWrong Team is now '''Lightcone Infrastructure''', come work with us!] by habryka (30<sup>th</sup> Sep 2021)</ref> Because simple is bad and reorganizing organizations frequently will fix everything.

LessWrong, MIRI, and Lightcone are all based in Berkeley, [[California]].

==History==
[[Image:Vittorio on Yud.PNG|thumb|right|400px|One [[Twitter|X]] user commenting on the psychogenic origins of LessWrong]]
In July of 2000, Yudkowsky founded the nonprofit Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence (SIAI) to "create a friendly, self-improving artificial intelligence."<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20121222075421/http://singularity.org/files/2000-SIAI990.pdf SIAI's year 2000 990-EZ] ''Internal Revenue Service'' via ''Singularity Institute'' (archived from December 22, 2012).</ref> In 2006, Yudkowksy began contributing to ''Overcoming Bias''<ref>[http://www.overcomingbias.com/ Overcoming Bias]</ref> along with [[George Mason University]] [[economist]] [[Robin Hanson]]. After several years and increasing popularity, Yudkowksy had amassed a cult following and started a collaborative blog/community to focus on some topics of particular interest to himself and SIAI, such as rationality, [[philosophy]], AI, and transhumanism.<ref>[http://www.overcomingbias.com/about About],''Overcoming Bias''.</ref> ''Overcoming Bias'' remains as a "sister blog" to LessWrong, where Hanson and others discuss how human beings can compensate for natural biases (and ideas stemming from Hanson's speculations on economics).

MIRI, where Yudkowsky remains a research fellow, hosted and maintained LessWrong<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/ftg/2012_winter_fundraiser_for_the_singularity/ 2012 Winter Fundraiser for the Singularity Institute] ''LessWrong''.</ref> to provide "an introduction to issues of [[cognitive biases]] and rationality relevant for careful thinking about [[Effective altruism|optimal philanthropy]] and many of the problems that must be solved in advance of the creation of provably human-friendly powerful artificial intelligence."<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20120910030904/http://singularity.org/files/2009-SIAI990.pdf SIAI's year 2009 990] ''Internal Revenue Service'' via ''Singularity Institute'' (archived from September 10, 2012).</ref> Yudkowsky considers LessWrong useful insofar as it advances SIAI's work,<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/4vr/less_wrong_rationality_and_mainstream_philosophy/3qoa "important and interesting in proportion to how much it helps construct a Friendly AI"] by Eliezer Yudkowsky (2011) ''LessWrong''.</ref> and the site is a key venue for SIAI recruitment<ref>[http://web.archive.org/web/20110621192259/http://singinst.org/achievements About Us: 2009 SIAI Accomplishments] ''Singularity Institute'' (archived from June 21, 2011).</ref> and fundraising.<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/3gy/tallinnevans_125000_singularity_challenge/ Tallinn-Evans $125,000 Singularity Challenge] by Kaj Sotala (26<sup>th</sup> Dec 2010) ''LessWrong''.</ref> The most popular post of all time on LessWrong, for example, is an assessment of SIAI by charity evaluator GiveWell.<ref name=givewell>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/cbs/thoughts_on_the_singularity_institute_si/ Thoughts on the Singularity Institute] by Holden Karnofsky (10<sup>th</sup> May 2012) ''LessWrong''.</ref>

LessWrong originally attracted the bulk of its user base from communities interested in transhumanism. In addition to ''Overcoming Bias'', these communities include the SL4 mailing list<ref>[http://sl4.org/ SL4]</ref> and the Extropians mailing lists<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20140906095055/http://www.extropy.org/emaillists.htm Email Lists, Communities and Forums] ''Extropy Institute (archived from September 6, 2014).</ref> (dating back to the 1990s). Accordingly, LessWrong has long been an essentially transhumanist community, emphasizing a focus on rationality ''per se'' in order to attract those who might otherwise be [[skeptical]] of [[apocalyptic]] AI.<ref name=tiku>[https://web.archive.org/web/20130202144128/http://betabeat.com/2012/07/singularity-institute-less-wrong-peter-thiel-eliezer-yudkowsky-ray-kurzweil-harry-potter-methods-of-rationality/?show=all Faith, Hope, and Singularity: Entering the Matrix with New York’s Futurist Set] by Nitasha Tiku (25 July 2012) ''Beta Beat, The New York Observer'' (archived from February 2, 2013). {{quotebox|Michael Vassar, the former president of Singularity Institute, who stepped down in January to pursue his idea for a personalized medicine startup–later bringing on Mr. Mowshowitz and Ms. Vance–admitted the nonprofit had learned to hide some of its more radical ideas, emphasizing rationality instead. As Mr. Yudkowsky put it, “There are plenty of people out there who would be interested in cognitive science-based thinking skills who wouldn’t necessarily buy into the whole 'save humanity' thing."}}</ref>

Since 2010, many of the newcomers to LessWrong have been introduced to the site from the e-book, ''Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality'',<ref>[http://www.hpmor.com/ HPMOR] by Eliezer Yudkowsky</ref><ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/fk/survey_results/#more Survey Results] by Scott Alexander (12<sup>th</sup> May 2009) ''LessWrong''.</ref><ref name=2011survey>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/8p4/2011_survey_results/#more 2011 Survey Results] by Scott Alexander (5<sup>th</sup> Dec 2011) ''LessWrong''.</ref> a popular work of [[Harry Potter]] fanfiction written by Yudkowksy. The future focus of LessWrong is unclear, but discussions about rationality have led to the 2012 formation of the Center For Applied Rationality (CFAR).<ref>[https://www.rationality.org/ Center For Applied Rationality: Developing clear thinking for the sake of humanity’s future] ''Center For Applied Rationality''.</ref><ref>[https://archive.ph/nbga5 Welcome to CFAR!] by Julia, ''Center for Applied Rationality'' (archived from 7 Jul 2013 13:28:00 UTC).</ref> CFAR is devoted to researching methods of teaching rationalism, and holding retreats and summer camps to pass these methods on to others.<ref>[https://archive.ph/HBhwY What We Do] ''Center for Applied Rationality'' (archived from 7 Jul 2013 13:28:05 UTC).</ref>

After 2013, Yudkowsky himself stopped participating much in the site because it isn't fun anymore (though he still comments occasionally). Many others have followed suit. Yudkowsky and many other current and ex-LessWrongers now form what is colloquially referred to as the LessWrong Diaspora, in their own blogs, on [[Tumblr]]<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20140906001150/http://yxoque.tumblr.com/RationalistMasterlist Rationalist Masterlist] by yxoque (Last updated September 1st 2014) ''Tumblr'' (archived from September 6, 2014).</ref> and on LessWrong user [[Scott Alexander]]'s blog Slate Star Codex.<ref>[http://slatestarcodex.com Slate Star Codex]</ref> Alexander refers to the 2015 participants as "some kind of pack of unquiet spirits who have moved in to haunt it after it got abandoned by the founding community members."<ref>[http://slatestarscratchpad.tumblr.com/post/126960878071/su3su2u1-uncrediblehallq-nostalgebraist Star Slate Scratchpad] (Aug 17<sup>th</sup>, 2015) ''Tumblr''.</ref>

==Content==
[[Image:Hpmor.jpg|thumb|right|200px|Cover image of ''Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality'']]
===The good===
At their best, LessWrong's articles really do articulate important aspects of human cognition. The core of LessWrong are its many parables, [[metaphor]]s, and explanations of concepts in [[psychology]] and philosophy.  The popularity of such essays as Yudkowsky's "The Genetic Fallacy", which clearly explains the [[genetic fallacy]] and works out some of its potential complications,<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/s3/the_genetic_fallacy/ The Genetic Fallacy] by Eliezer Yudkowsky (10<sup>th</sup> Jul 2008) ''LessWrong''.</ref> helped attract the growing community — even luring in those who might not be otherwise interested in transhumanism. While some critics have implied that this is perhaps some sort of deception (along the lines of [[bait-and-switch]]), the peculiarly-focused interests of LessWrong's most prominent members has no reflection on the usefulness of some of its great resources (even if they're unacknowledged idea-for-idea popularisations of {{wpl|Daniel Kahneman||).}}

A key part of the LessWrong approach to human rationality is to avoid "fallacies of compression" and [[mistaking the map for the territory]], which is the result of humans trying to fit a vastly huge [[universe]] into a relatively small and squishy piece of [[Brain|meat]] located between their ears. According to Yudkowsky, beliefs should ''constrain'' our expectations and those that are true no matter what we see are what constitutes [[blind faith]]&nbsp;— for example, two people arguing "whether a tree falling in a forest, with no one around to hear it, makes a sound" might argue yes and no based on different definitions of "sound" but wouldn't actually expect anything different. Precision, therefore, is the order of the day and is achieved through expectations and sensory anticipation, rather than merely saying something is true and arguing through clever wordplay. Particularly useful ideas include:

*The "ugh field"<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/21b/ugh_fields/ Ugh Fields] by Roko (12<sup>th</sup> Apr 2010) ''LessWrong''.</ref> — the instinctive distaste our minds have for difficult decisions
*Arguments as soldiers — the instinct to defend any argument you've put forward, no matter how stupid
*The "affective death spiral"<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/lm/affective_death_spirals/ Affective Death Spirals] by Eliezer Yudkowsky (2<sup>nd</sup> Dec 2007) ''LessWrong''.</ref> — in which praise for an entity turns into an endless cycle of greater praise
*The [[rationalist taboo]], which requires speakers to specify precisely what they mean instead of using more concise terms whose meanings might be [[vague]]
*"Crocker's Rules", in which a participant in a debate invites frank responses and declares that they will not take offense. (In practice this is used by people who want to be free to ''give'' offense and reliably hit the roof when they're on the ''receiving'' end.) Lee Daniel Crocker credits Yudkowsky with actually coining the rule.<ref>[https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Talk:Lee_Daniel_Crocker&oldid=408491541 Talk:Lee Daniel Crocker] (revision of 18 January 2011) ''Wikipedia''.</ref>

All of these efforts that are aimed at promoting better thinking and better decisions, and are accordingly commendable.

In other words: just because Yudkowsky wants to live as a [[Simulated reality|simulation in a computer forever]] ''doesn't'' mean that his explanation<ref>[http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem] (2003) ''Eliezer Yudkowsky''.</ref> of [[Bayesian|Bayes' Theorem]] isn't interesting and well-written. (Bayesianism, which uses that theorem to assess [[Probability|probabilities]] when making decisions, has become one of the hallmarks of LessWrong and its most frequent buzzword.)

===The meh===
LessWrong has an extensive [[jargon]]<ref>[http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Jargon Jargon] ''Lesswrongwiki''.</ref> that mostly comes from the much-revered "Sequences",<ref>[http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Sequences Sequences] ''LessWrong''.</ref> a long series of essays by Yudkowsky considered essential reading by members of the community. Their extraordinary length can be prohibitive, however (surpassing J.R.R. Tolkien's ''Lord of the Rings'').{{efn|The Sequences was estimated to be about 630,000 words<ref>[https://putanumonit.com/2016/05/17/rationality/ The Secret Society for Suppressing Stupidity] ''Putanumonit''.</ref> vs. Tolkien's ''Lord of the Rings'' trilogy + ''The Hobbit'' at 576,459 words, or 482,058 words excluding ''The Hobbit''.<ref>[https://www.quora.com/How-many-words-are-in-LOTR-books How many words are in LOTR books?] by Vittorio Cobianchi and Ayesha Rasheed, ''Quora''.</ref> }}

Such time might be better spent reading some of the books written by the actual researchers behind the Sequences' concepts, such as ''The Fabric of Reality'' by David Deutsch,<ref>''The Fabric of Reality:  the Science of Parallel Universes&nbs;— and Its Implications'' by David Deutsch< (1997). Penguin Books. ISBN 014027541X.</ref> ''Thinking, Fast and Slow'' by Daniel Kahneman,<ref>''Thinking, Fast and Slow'' by Daniel Kahneman (2011) Farrar, Straus and Giroux. ISBN 0374533555.</ref> ''[[The Black Swan]]'' by [[Nassim Nicholas Taleb]],<ref>''The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable'' by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2010) Random House. Second edition. ISBN 081297381X.</ref> or ''Thinking and Deciding'' by Jonathan Baron<ref>''Thinking and Deciding'' by Jonathan Baron (20230) Cambridge University Press. Fifth edition. ISBN 1009263641.</ref>&nbsp;— all of which are readable. This does not negate the value of the Sequences, particularly if one is interested in the transhumanist and physical realist ends to which many of them turn.

The "required reading" status of the Sequences might be partially prompted by the same [[cognitive dissonance]] that helps perpetuate exclusive clubs: "it was hard to read them all, but I did it, {{wpl|Effort justification|therefore they must be good."}}

The extreme focus on [[Bayesian statistics]] could be criticized as arbitrary and pretentious. Yudkowsky himself admits its counter-intuitive nature:
{{quotebox|The Way of Bayes is also an imprecise art, at least the way I'm holding forth upon it. These blog posts are still fumbling attempts to put into words lessons that would be better taught by experience. But at least there's underlying math, plus experimental evidence from cognitive psychology on how humans actually think. Maybe that will be enough to cross the stratospherically high threshold required for a discipline that lets you actually get it right, instead of just constraining you into interesting new mistakes.<ref>Eliezer Yudkowsky, The Less Wrong Sequences</ref>}}

Bayesian statistics is powerful, but it is equivalent to {{wpl|frequentist statistics}} at the end of the day. LessWrong's preoccupation with it could be perceived as nerddom for nerddom's sake.

===The bad===
The good bits are not original and the original bits are not good. The well-written explanations of cognitive biases are taken idea-for-idea from Kahneman. Take everything with a grain of salt, and read the comments, which frequently carry detailed refutations (often downvoted).

It also contains ill-defined concepts like "The Tao of Physics"<ref>[https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XDkeuJTFjM9Y2x6v6/which-basis-is-more-fundamental Which Basis Is More Fundamental?] by Eliezer Yudkowsky (23<sup>rd</sup> Apr 2008) ''LessWrong''.</ref> (which may or may not be exactly the same as [[Hume]]'s principle of the uniformity of nature) and [[science fiction]] stories where the Yudkowsky stand-in debates with [[Straw man|strawmen]] (a staple of most of his writing). An uncritical reader is likely to either get even ''more'' confused about the subject matter or, worse, swallow Yudkowsky's personal, [[fringe]] views alongside mainstream [[science]], forming a bond between the two in their [[worldview]].

There is also a small but intense LessWrong community in the San Francisco Bay Area, Austin, and a few other cities. This community raises millions of dollars for pet projects,<ref>Alex Vermeer, [https://intelligence.org/2025/12/01/miris-2025-fundraiser/ MIRI's 2025 Fundraiser], intelligence.org, December 1, 2025 (raised $3.2 million, half of it a matching donation from an anonymous sponsor)</ref> experiments with practices such as [[polyamory]], [[psychedelic]] use, mind-hacking, and shared living arrangements, and emits cult-like splinter movements and accusations of misconduct.<ref>eg. [[Ozy Brennan]], [https://asteriskmag.com/issues/11/why-are-there-so-many-rationalist-cults "Why Are There So Many Rationalist Cults?"] ''Asterisk Magazine'' (written by a believer)</ref> These stories about LessWrong ''practices'' are concerning even if you are neutral to positive on LessWrong's ideas.

==Criticism==
===Lack of application===
{{cquote|Imagine there was an online community that pretended they had your job.

Pretend there is a website of trans-accountants who have never had an [[accounting]] job nor had any education in accounting. They talk about accounting all the time but they make up words for it and misuse what few words they actually know. Everything they know about accounting they learned from movies and adventure novels with accountants. They talk about post-ledger accounting and they talk about maximizing your redline value returns.

Or people who pretend to manage video rental stores but have never even owned a television.|||Poe News<ref>[http://web.archive.org/web/20130722093226/www.poe-news.com/forums/spshort.php?pi=1002432591&ti=1002430709 I fucking hate these people so fucking much.] ''Poe News'' (archived 22 July 2013).</ref>}}
LessWrong is mainly concerned — or claims to be concerned — with achieving accurate beliefs about the world, rather than achieving goals.<ref>Although there are essays like Eliezer Yudkowsky's [https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/4ARtkT3EYox3THYjF/rationality-is-systematized-winning "Rationality is Systematized Winning"] from 2009</ref> The refusal to delve into contemporary [[politics]] or policy is held up as laudable, because it is seen as a way to preserve objective rationality.<ref>[http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/FAQ#Is_it_OK_to_talk_about_politics.3F Is it OK to talk about politics?] ''LessWrong Wiki''.</ref> One of the most-cited and most popular phrases is "politics is the mind-killer", derived from the Yudkowsky essay of the same name,<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/gw/politics_is_the_mindkiller/ Politics Is the Mind-Killer] by Eliezer Yudkowsky (18<sup>th</sup> Feb 2007) ''LessWrong''.</ref> which argues that real discussion never occurs in a political context, because "winning" the discussion for your "side" becomes paramount, rather than reaching an optimal decision.<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/gt/a_fable_of_science_and_politics/ A Fable of Science and Politics] by Eliezer Yudkowsky (22<sup>nd</sup> Dec 2006) ''LessWrong''</ref> While logical to the extent that this is an accurate criticism of ''most of'' political discourse, it's also essentially a declaration of surrender: "It's hard to stay rational in politics, so we'll just give up." It also subverts LessWrong's forecasting fixation: how does one forecast the future of humanity without understanding the politics of humanity?

If members of LessWrong truly are less biased in their thinking than the general public, as they've argued,<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/fuv/participation_in_the_lw_community_associated_with/ Participation in the LW Community Associated with Less Bias] (9<sup>th</sup> Dec 2012) ''LessWrong''.</ref> then the more they succeed in drawing people into the fold, the more they may cede the field to the irrational. This also leads to a preponderance of (a) Silicon Valley [[libertarianism]] (the default political view of the participants) as the assumed neutral "not-politics" and (b) open slather for [[neoreactionaries]], who largely incubated on Overcoming Bias and LW.

===Cult===
{{cquote|Despite describing itself as a forum on “the art of human rationality,” the New York Less Wrong group, which holds weekly Tuesday meetups and boasts almost 300 people signed up for its mailing list, is fixated on a branch of [[futurism]] that would seem more at home in a 3D multiplex than a graduate seminar: the dire existential threat—or, with any luck, utopian promise—known as the technological Singularity.|||Nitasha Tiku<ref>[https://observer.com/2012/07/faith-hope-and-singularity-entering-the-matrix-with-new-yorks-futurist-set/ Faith, Hope, and Singularity: Entering the Matrix with New York’s Futurist Set] by Nitasha Tiku (07/25/12 8:45am) ''New York Observer''.</ref>}}
{{cquote|Yet looking at the evidence closet for the Singularity and AI alignment reveals there are plenty of good reasons to think that the rationalists [i.e., LessWrong] are wrong about nearly everything, independently of their resemblance to a cult. It's not that the rationalists are wrong ''because'' they look like a cult; it's that they're wrong ''and'' they look like a cult.|||Adam Becker<ref name=becker/>{{rp|143}}}}
LessWrong's culture resembles, in most other respects, the standard set of predominately male, middle-class [[Vulgar libertarianism|internet-libertarians]]<ref name=2011survey/> so familiar in other places&nbsp;— including cringe-inducing discussions of the merits of [[racism]], which the neoreactionaries took as a welcoming signal.<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/f8x/rationality_quotes_november_2012/7ucj?context=5#comments Comments on "Rationality Quotes, November 2012"], ''LessWrong''</ref>  However, members of LessWrong are unusually concerned and active in charitable giving.<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/fej/giving_what_we_can_80000_hours_and_metacharity/ "Giving What We Can: 80,000 Hours and Metacharity"] (6<sup>th</sup> Nov 2012) ''LessWrong''.</ref> They are also laudable for prizing accurate thinking over their personal viewpoints: it is not uncommon to witness someone actually change their mind when confronted with a good argument, a rarer phenomenon than one might think.

The site has been accused of being a [[personality cult]] of Eliezer Yudkowsky, and does not reflect the other essayists who have become almost as influential. Cultishness is heavily discussed on the site, both by Yudkowsky and others.<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/lv/every_cause_wants_to_be_a_cult/ Every Cause Wants To Be A Cult] by Eliezer Yudkowsky (11<sup>th</sup> Dec 2007) ''LessWrong''.</ref> Amusingly enough, this led to some search engines suggesting "cult" as a related term to "Less Wrong" … in response to which, some users started using the code-word "phyg"<ref group=note>The simple Caesar cipher widely known since the days of [[Usenet]] as [[Fun:ROT13|ROT13]] transforms "cult" to "phyg" and back again.</ref> to mean "cult".<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/bql/our_phyg_is_not_exclusive_enough/ Our Phyg Is Not Exclusive Enough] (14<sup>th</sup> Apr 2012) ''LessWrong''.</ref>

Both LessWrong and the [[effective altruism]] movement have been accused of being cults by three former members. Two of the former members accused the male-dominated groups of harboring abusive members.<ref>[https://archive.ph/7H244 #LessWrong and Effective Altruism are cults. I was abused by both Michael Vassar/Arc and Andrew Rettek, both of whom used @slatestarcodex's writings to emotionally torture me.] by @RuffleJax/Jacqueline Bryk (6:25 PM · Jun 19, 2018) ''Twitter'' (archived from 20 Apr 2025 04:57:03 UTC).</ref><ref>[https://medium.com/@itai.ilyich/if-i-cant-have-me-no-one-can-kathleen-rebecca-forth-born-april-11-1980-31c49ed15121 If I Can’t Have Me, No One Can (Kathleen Rebecca Forth — Born April 11, 1980)] by Itai Emberwell (Jun 18, 2018) ''Medium''.</ref><ref name=becker>''More Everything Forever: AI Overlords, Space Empires, and Silicon Valley's Crusade to Control the Fate of Humanity'' by Adam Becker (2025) Basic Books. ISBN 1541619595.</ref>{{rp|139-140}}

While the appearance of a cult has faded, the like-mindedness that led to the criticism has not. LessWrong has a very deep but narrow set of demographics that have only slightly improved over the years<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/fk/survey_results/ Survey Results] by Scott Alexander (12<sup>th</sup> May 2009) ''LessWrong''.</ref>&nbsp;— the same problem common to academic psychology and known as being "[[WEIRD]]": "Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic" or also "White, Educated, Intelligent, Rich, and Democratic."<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/17x/beware_of_weird_psychological_samples/ Beware of WEIRD psychological samples] by Paul Crowley (13<sup>th</sup> Sep 2009) ''LessWrong''.</ref> Indeed, the site was strongly concerned about the impacts of growth.<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/fqj/poll_is_endless_september_a_threat_to_lw_and_what/ Poll - Is endless September a threat to LW and what should be done?] by Epiphany (8<sup>th</sup> Dec 2012) ''LessWrong''.</ref>

====Zizians====
LessWrong has some prior connections to a small bizarre radical offshoot group (often described as a cult) that is nebulously centered around a [[transgender]] woman named Ziz Lasota.<ref>Christopher Beam, [https://archive.ph/ma2ZN She Wanted to Save the World From A.I. Then the Killings Started.] ''The New York Times'', 7 July 2025.</ref> A software developer originally from [[Alaska]], Lasota moved to the San Francisco area in 2015, seeking to participate in both the [[rationalism]] movement and the [[effective altruism]] movement while engaged in her software development career. Burnt out from the hustle culture and extremely high cost of housing within Silicon Valley, Lasota's technical career did not last long. Instead, she (along with two others) purchased a boat in the hopes of creating rent-free housing for the rationalism movement (a concept that bore some similarities to [[libertarian paradise]]). After multiple difficulties with authorities and financial problems, Lasota abandoned the boat in Alaska in 2017. 

By that time, Lasota and her cult were completely disillusioned with LessWrong and the rest of the rationalist community. They had learned that MIRI had reached a paid settlement with an employee who accused his former colleagues of statutory rape, and decided that they no longer trusted rationalist organizations or leaders.<ref>Tessa Stuart, [https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/ziz-lasota-zizians-ai-cult-1235468289/ The Radicalization of Ziz Lasota: How an AI Doomer Became an Accused Cult Leader], ''Rolling Stone'', December 2, 2025</ref> Instead, the cult embraced a far more radical ideology, which entangled parts of rationalism (particularly the more dystopian elements such as Roko's Basilisk) with radical [[veganism]] and [[anarchism]]. In November 2019, Lasota and other members of her cult staged a protest outside a CFAR meeting at a retreat center. This ultimately resulted in multiple members of the cult being arrested for brief periods (along with a ban from LessWrong). As the years passed, the cult became increasingly estranged and isolated from society. By February 2025, Lasota's loose movement was connected to at least six murders and two suicides.<ref>[https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/ziz-silicon-valley-rationalist-deaths-1235278765/ "6 Deaths, 3 States and the Radical Breakaway ‘Rationalists’ at the Center of the Nightmare"] by Tessa Stewart, Rolling Stone, 2025 February 25</ref><ref>[https://archive.ph/4HAtn "The Delirious, Violent, Impossible True Story of the Zizians"] By Evan Ratliff, Wired, 2025 February 21</ref><ref>[https://www.cbsnews.com/news/vermont-border-agent-death-exposed-violence-linked-cultlike-zizian-group/ "How a Vermont border agent's death exposed violence linked to the cultlike Zizian group"], CBS News, 2025 February 15</ref><ref>[https://futurism.com/rokos-basilisk-zizian-cult-jail "Alleged Leader of Roko’s Basilisk Murder Cult Says She Did Nothing Wrong, and Would Appreciate Some Vegan Food in Jail"], Futurism, February 24</ref>

===Contrarianism===
Another problem of LessWrong is that its isolationism represents a self-made problem (unlike demographics). Despite intense philosophical speculation, the users tend towards a proud contempt of mainstream and ancient philosophy<ref>[https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LcEzxX2FNTKbB6KXS/train-philosophers-with-pearl-and-kahneman-not-plato-and Train Philosophers with Pearl and Kahneman, Not Plato and Kant] by lukeprog (5<sup>th</sup> December 2012) ''LessWrong''.</ref> and this then leads to them having to re-invent the wheel. When this tendency is coupled with the metaphors and parables that are central to LessWrong's attraction, it explains why they invent new terms for already existing concepts.<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/eik/eliezers_sequences_and_mainstream_academia/ Eliezer's Sequences and Mainstream Academia] by lukeprog (14<sup>th</sup> September 2012) ''LessWrong''.</ref> Yudkowsky takes the position of "requiredism" on [[free will]]/[[determinism]] which he believes to be different from the mainstream compatibilism{{efn|Eliezer Yudkowsky, ''Thou Art Physics'':{{quotebox|“Compatibilism” is the philosophical position that “free will” can be intuitively and satisfyingly defined in such a way as to be compatible with deterministic [[physics]]. “Incompatibilism” is the position that free will and determinism are incompatible.<br/>My position might perhaps be called “Requiredism.” When agency, choice, control, and [[moral]] responsibility are cashed out in a sensible way, they require determinism&nbsp;— at least some patches of determinism within the [[universe]].<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/r0/thou_art_physics/ Thou Art Physics] by Eliezer Yudkowsky (6<sup>th</sup> June 2008) ''LessWrong''.</ref>}}}} on LessWrong, for example, and the [[continuum fallacy]] is relabeled "the fallacy of gray".<ref>[https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dLJv2CoRCgeC2mPgj/the-fallacy-of-gray The Fallacy of Gray] by Yudkowsky Eliezer (7<sup>th</sup> January 2008) ''LessWrong''.</ref> The end result is a ''Seinfeld''esque series of superfluous neologisms.

Although most posters don't consider LessWrong to be "mainstream" philosophy, it has been compared to [[Wittgenstein]] who seems to best represent Yudkowsky and company's views on how language limits the ability for rationalists to communicate, and [[W.V.O. Quine]],<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/4vr/rationality_and_intuition/ Rationality and Mainstream Philosophy] by lukeprog (20<sup>th</sup> March 2011) ''LessWrong''.</ref> whose approach to [[naturalism]] and science reflects the [[empiricism]] and [[reductionism]] of LessWrong. {{wpl|Gary Drescher||'s}} excellent-but-dense ''Good and Real: Demystifying Paradoxes from Physics to Ethics'' covers a lot of the same ground as the Sequences and came out around when the Sequences started;<ref>[https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262042338/good-and-real/ ''Good and Real: Demystifying Paradoxes from Physics to Ethics''] by Gary Drescher (2006) MIT Press. {{isbn| 9780262042338}}.</ref> Yudkowsky had not read it before finishing them, but approves of the book.

===Roko's Basilisk===
{{main|Roko's basilisk}}
[[File:Lw-basilisk-censorship.png|thumb|DON'T BLINK!]]
{{cquote|I don’t think their projects (which only seem to involve publishing papers and hosting conferences) have much chance of creating either Roko’s Basilisk or Eliezer’s Big Friendly God. But the combination of [[Messiah|messianic]] ambitions, being convinced of your own infallibility, and a lot of cash never works out well, regardless of [[ideology]], and I don’t expect Yudkowsky and his cohorts to be an exception.|||David Auerbach<ref>[https://slate.com/technology/2014/07/rokos-basilisk-the-most-terrifying-thought-experiment-of-all-time.html The Most Terrifying Thought Experiment of All Time: Why are techno-futurists so freaked out by Roko’s Basilisk?] by David Auerbach (July 17, 20142:47 PM) ''Slate''.</ref>}}

The most prominent criticism to be made of LessWrong involves the incident of Roko's Basilisk. The absurdities involved beggar belief.

Yudkowsky has long been interested in the idea that one should act as if one's decisions were able to determine the behavior of causally-separated [[Simulated reality|simulations of oneself]]:<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/15z/ingredients_of_timeless_decision_theory/ Ingredients of Timeless Decision Theory] by Eliezer Yudkowsky (18<sup>th</sup> Aug 2009) ''LessWrong''.</ref> if one can plausibly forecast a past or future agent simulating oneself, and then take actions in the present because of this prediction, then you "determined" the agent's prediction of oneself, in some sense. 

The idea is that your decision, the decision of a simulation of you, and any prediction of your decision, have the same cause: An abstract computation that is being carried out. Just like a calculator, and any copy of it, can be predicted to output the same answer, given the same input. The calculator's output, and the output of its copy, are indirectly linked by this abstract computation. Timeless Decision Theory says that, rather than acting like you are determining your individual decision, you should act like you are determining the output of that abstract computation. 

This sort of thinking gets odd when one imagines superintelligences, because of all the extremes involved: their predictions of human behaviour may be near-perfect, as in {{wpl|Newcomb's paradox||,}} their power may be near-infinite, and the consequences could be near-eternal. Yudkowsky has also advocated the absolute worst form of [[utilitarianism]], saying that it would be justified to [[torture]] one person for 50 years to prevent dust specks in the eyes of sufficiently large numbers of people (a ridiculously huge number that cannot be completely written in the universe).<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/kn/torture_vs_dust_specks/uf7 Torture vs. Dust Specks] by Eliezer Yudkowsky (29<sup>th</sup> Oct 2007) ''LessWrong''.</ref>

In July of 2010, Roko wondered if a future Friendly AI would punish people who didn't do everything in their power to further the AI research from which this AI originated, by at the very least donating all they have to it. He reasoned that every day without AI, bad things happen (150,000+ people die every day, war is fought, millions go hungry) and a future Friendly AI would want to prevent this, so it might punish those who understood the importance of donating but didn't donate all they could. He then wondered if future AIs would be more likely to punish those who had wondered if future AIs would punish them. That final thought proved too much for some LessWrong [[Kool-Aid|readers]], who then had nightmares about being tortured for not donating enough to SIAI.

Yudkowsky replied to Roko's post calling him names, claiming that posting such things on an Internet forum "potentially gives superintelligences an increased motive to do extremely evil things in an attempt to blackmail us", and that users had told him of nightmares prompted by the post. Four hours later, he deleted Roko's post,<ref>[https://archive.ph/WBGB Solutions to the Altruist's burden: the Quantum Billionaire Trick] by Roko (23 July 2010 12:30PM) ''LessWrong'' (archived from a snapshot of Google's cache, 10 Sep 2012 12:16:00 UTC. Please do not read if you are prone to nightmares or OCD and/or are worried about causing incalculable harm to yourself.</ref> including all comments. Roko left LessWrong, deleting his thousands of posts and comments.<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/user/Roko Roko] ''LessWrong''.</ref> (He later briefly returned<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/user/formallyknownasroko FormallyknownasRoko] ''LessWrong''.</ref> and posted among other things that "I agree that the post in question should not appear in public"<ref name=notappearinpublic>[https://web.archive.org/web/20161021074404/http://lesswrong.com/lw/38u/best_career_models_for_doing_research/33w7 FormallyknownasRoko comments on Best career models for doing research? - Less Wrong] by  Comment author: FormallyknownasRoko (09 December 2010 10:17:05PM and 10 December 2010 05:06:28PM) ''LessWrong'' (archived from October 21, 2016).</ref> and "I wish I had never learned about any of these ideas".<ref name=notappearinpublic/>)

{{quotebox|What you know: When Roko posted about the Basilisk, I very foolishly yelled at him, called him an idiot, and then deleted the post.

Why I did that is not something you have direct access to, and thus you should be careful about Making Stuff Up, especially when there are Internet [[trolls]] who are happy to tell you in a loud authoritative voice what I was thinking, despite having never passed anything even close to an Ideological [[Turing test|Turing Test]] on Eliezer Yudkowsky.

Why I yelled at Roko: Because I was caught flatfooted in surprise, because I was indignant to the point of genuine emotional shock, at the concept that somebody who thought they'd invented a brilliant idea that would cause future AIs to torture people who had the thought, had promptly posted it to the public Internet. In the course of yelling at Roko to explain why ths{{sic}} was a bad thing, I made the further error---keeping in mind that I had absolutely no idea that any of this would ever blow up the way it did, if I had I would obviously have kept my fingers quiescent&nbsp;— of not making it absolutely clear using lengthy disclaimers that my yelling did not mean that I believed Roko was right about CEV-based agents<ref>[https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/coherent-extrapolated-volition Coherent Extrapolated Volition] ''LessWrong''.{{quotebox|Coherent Extrapolated Volition was a term developed by Eliezer Yudkowsky while discussing Friendly AI development. It’s meant as an argument that it would not be sufficient to explicitly program what we think our desires and motivations are into an AI, instead, we should find a way to program it in a way that it would act in our best interests&nbsp;– what we ''want'' it to do and not what we ''tell'' it to.}}</ref> torturing people who had heard about Roko's idea. It was obvious to me that no CEV-based agent would ever do that and equally obvious to me that the part about CEV was just a [[red herring]]; I more or less automatically pruned it from my processing of the suggestion and automatically generalized it to cover the entire class of similar scenarios and variants, variants which I considered obvious despite significant divergences (I forgot that other people were not professionals in the field). This class of all possible variants did strike me as potentially dangerous as a collective group, even though it did not occur to me that Roko's original scenario might be right&nbsp;— that was obviously wrong, so my brain automatically generalized it.

At this point we start to deal with a massive divergence between what I, and several other people on LessWrong, considered to be obvious [[common sense]], and what other people did not consider to be obvious common sense, and the malicious interference of the Internet trolls at [[RationalWiki]].

What I considered to be obvious common sense was that you did not spread potential information hazards because it would be a crappy thing to do to someone. The problem wasn't Roko's post itself, about CEV, being correct.<ref>[https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/2cm2eg/comment/cjjbqqo/?context=3 Roko's Basilisk] by Eliezer Yudkowsky (c. 2014) ''Reddit''.</ref>}}

Yudkowsky later claimed the basilisk would not in fact work the way Roko had posited; but rather than simply explaining how such a reaction was inappropriate or how the ideas underlying it were flawed, he instead attempted to [[censor]] all discussion of the topic. The matter is now the occasional subject of contorted LW posts, as people try to discuss the issue without talking about what they're talking about,<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/39z/should_lw_have_a_public_censorship_policy/ Should LW have a public censorship policy?] by Bongo (11<sup>th</sup> Dec 2010) ''LessWrong''.</ref><ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/ds4/article_about_lw_faith_hope_and_singularity/73ao Article about LW: Faith, Hope, and Singularity: Entering the Matrix with New York’s Futurist Set] comment by Bruno Coelho (25<sup>th</sup> Jul 2012) ''LessWrong''.</ref> and is a reliable space-filler for [[journalist]]s covering LessWrong-related stories.<ref name=tiku/>

===How Yudkowsky deals with critics===
One knowledgeable critic of LessWrong said that several years of ongoing harassment concerning his controversial posts had been affecting his health.<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/lb3/breaking_the_vicious_cycle/ Breaking the vicious cycle] by XiXiDu, ''LessWrong'', 23 November 2014.</ref> Yudkowsky responded with the following, which is no doubt an entirely reasonable thing to ask someone to do:

{{quotebox|You can update by posting a header to all of your blog posts saying, "I wrote this blog during a dark period of my life. I now realize that Eliezer Yudkowsky is a decent and honest person with no ill intent, and that anybody can be made to look terrible by selectively collecting all of his quotes one-sidedly as I did. I regret this page, and leave it here as an archive to that regret." If that is how you feel and that is what you do, I will treat with you starting from scratch in any future endeavors. I've been stupid too, in my life. (If you then revert to pattern, you do not get a second second chance.)<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/lb3/breaking_the_vicious_cycle/bnrr Breaking the vicious cycle] comment by Eliezer Yudkowsky,  ''LessWrong'', 24 November 2014.</ref>}}

That doesn't sound like [[Cult#Warning signs of a potentially unsafe group/leader|cultish behavior]] at all, now does it?

Note that most of these blog posts don't even ''mention'' Yudkowsky, much less [[quote mine]] him. But still, he wants his own header on top of every single blog post.

This was eventually resolved by removing most of the dispute-related content, placing disclaimers where relevant, and letting the matter go.

==Finances==
LessWrong was run under the umbrella of MIRI (probably up until the 2017 reorganization).<ref>[https://archive.ph/2UxZ2 LessWrong] (archived from 14 Mar 2017 10:12:46 UTC). CFAR, MIRI, and Future of Humanity Institute were in the website homepage banner in March 2017.</ref> Notable sponsors include PayPal founder (and 2016 [[Donald Trump]] delegate) [[Peter Thiel]], who contributed five-figure sums for several years. Many donations of late come from [[cryptocurrency]] winners; [[Ethereum]] founder Vitalik Buterin was the largest single donor in 2017.<ref>[https://intelligence.org/2018/01/10/fundraising-success/ Fundraising success!] by Malo Bourgon (January 10, 2018) ''MIRI''.</ref> Smaller contributions are also solicited and accepted.<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/6oe/i_just_donated_to_the_siai/ I just donated to the SIAI] by Pavitra (15<sup>th</sup> Jul 2011) ''LessWrong''.</ref> A $118,000 loss due to theft was reported in 2009, and has not been recovered.<ref>[http://lesswrong.com/lw/5il/siai_an_examination/ SIAI - An Examination] by BrandonReinhart (2<sup>nd</sup> May 2011) ''LessWrong''.</ref> MIRI uses its funds to recompense its officers (Yudkowsky made $147,697/year in 2019<ref>[https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/582565917 Machine Intelligence Research Institute Inc] ''ProPublica''.</ref>) and fund research, although no articles were placed in any peer reviewed journals until 2012. In that year, two articles were placed in the ridiculously-titled ''International Journal of Machine Consciousness''<ref>[http://www.scimagojr.com/journalsearch.php?q=19900192593&tip=sid&clean=0 International Journal of Machine Consciousness] ''Scimago Journal & Country Rank''.</ref> and one in the ''Journal of Consciousness Studies'',<ref>[http://www.scimagojr.com/journalsearch.php?q=15435&tip=sid&clean=0 Journal of Consciousness Studies] ''Scimago Journal & Country Rank''.</ref> both of which compare unfavorably to more prestigious journals in the field, such as "Artificial Intelligence."<ref>[http://www.scimagojr.com/journalsearch.php?q=23675&tip=sid&clean=0 Artificial Intelligence] ''Scimago Journal & Country Rank''.</ref> Requests for funding are regularly made on the LessWrong website and at conferences, under the justification that MIRI is, uniquely, working to save the world from a [[Existential risk|threat to its very existence]]. Yudkowsky is happy to solicit financial contributions even from non-wealthy individuals, in order to "save" them from the speculative scenario of runaway Artificial Intelligence.

===Lighthaven===
[[File:Eliezer debating destiny manifest.jpg|thumb|right|165px|Yudkowsky (left) debating Destiny at the 2023 Lighthaven conference]]
In 2024, it was revealed that Lightcone had received $5 million from the collapse of [[Sam Bankman-Fried]]’s FTX cryptocurrency foundation. Due to the large-scale fraud involved in the collapse of FTX, Lightcone was summoned to a court appearance, and creditors are asking for the return of the funds that Lightcone received.<ref name=wilson>[https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/jun/16/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-eugenics-scientific-racism Sam Bankman-Fried funded a group with racist ties. FTX wants its $5m back: The Guardian reveals FTX trustees, in charge after the CEO’s downfall, allege payments were made with looted funds] by Jason Wilson & Ali Winston (16 Jun 2024 06.00 EDT) ''The Guardian''.</ref> The property that Lightcone purchased in part with the FTX Foundation donation is called Lighthaven.<ref name=wilson/> Lighthaven is a retreat/workshop/conference/event campus that hosts futurist-oriented events ("humanity's long-term trajectory").<ref>[https://www.lighthaven.space/ Lighthaven]</ref>

Some of the events at best show poor judgment by Lightcone as to the nature of conferences. A forecasting conference called Manifest, run by the prediction marketplace Manifold, held conferences there on September 22-24, 2023:<ref name=wilson/><ref name=manifest2023>[https://manifest2023.info/ Manifest 2023]</ref>, June 7-9, 2024,<ref name=manifest2024>[https://www.manifest.is/ Manifest 2024]</ref> and June 6-8, 2025.<ref name=manifest2025>[https://archive.ph/Ew81c Manifest 2025]</ref> While forecasting is one of LessWrong's and Yudkowsky's favored subjects, the "special guests" and additional named attendees included some controversial people:<ref name=manifest2024/><ref>[https://manifest2023.info/speakers Special Guests] ''Manifest Conference'' (archived from August 2, 2023).</ref>
{{collist|2|
*[[Scott Alexander]] (2023 & 2024 special guest) — [[eugenicist]] supporter, [[racialist]]
*Brian Chau (2024 named guest) — racist, misogynist
*Malcolm and Simone Collins (2023 special guests) — eugenicists, [[Pro-natalism|pro-natalists]] 
*[[Robin Hanson]] (2023 & 2024 special guest, 2025 notable guest) — [[misogynist]]
*{{wpl|Stephen Hsu}} (2024 special guest, 2025 expected guest) — racialist
}}

Incidentally, [[Nate Silver]],{{efn|Following the 2024 event, Silver joined the Thiel-sponsored, cryptocurrency-based Polymarket event forecasting marketplace.<ref>[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-hires-nate-silver-taking-154956290.html Polymarket Hires Nate Silver After Taking in $265M of Bets on U.S. Election: Report] by Oliver Knight (Jul 17, 2024, 8:49 AM PDT) ''Yahoo! Finance''.</ref><ref>[https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharyfolk/2024/05/14/peter-thiel-invests-in-polymarket-political-betting-platform-but-the-future-of-gambling-on-elections-remains-unclear/ Peter Thiel Invests In Polymarket Political Betting Platform—But The Future Of Gambling On Elections Remains Unclear] by Zachary Folk (May 14, 2024, 02:19pm EDT) ''Forbes''.</ref>}} [[Destiny (person)|Destiny]], and Yudkowsky were special guests at both conferences. The presence of Yudkowsky at both conferences leave no doubt that Lightcone knew who was appearing and speaking, and less than a year later, Yudkowsky responded to a LessWrong post proposing to maximize IQ though human genetic engineering with:

{{quotebox|I hope somebody funds this, arguably the third most important project in the world.

ie, project prioritization:

1.  Avert all creation of superintelligence in the near and medium term.
2.  Augment adult human intelligence.
3.  Build superbabies.<ref>First tweet: https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1892374125089341444#m archived https://archive.ph/LPr5B second tweet: https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1892374126586716643#m archived https://archive.ph/K4AsZ Blog post https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DfrSZaf3JC8vJdbZL/how-to-make-superbabies archived https://archive.ph/sqkXi</ref>}}

Regarding the controversial speakers, August Chen, co-founder of Manifold, claimed that "We did not invite them to give talks about race and IQ" and "Manifest has no specific views on eugenics or race & IQ."<ref name=wilson/> An Effective Altruist who attended the event described the social dynamics as follows:

{{quotebox|Nominally, Manifest was about prediction markets. However, the organizers had selected for multiple quite controversial speakers and presenters, who in turn attracted a significant number of attendees who were primarily interested in these controversial topics, most prominent of which was eugenics. This human biodiversity (HBD) or “scientific racism” curious crowd engaged in a tiring game of carefully trying the waters with new people they interacted with, trying to gauge both how receptive their conversation partner is to racially incendiary topics and to which degree they are “one of us”. ... If you were fun to hang around with, you probably were also invited to the [[Curtis Yarvin]] afterparty as well.<ref>Maniano, "My Experience at the controversial Manifest 2024," ''Effective Altruism Forum'', 17 July 2024
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MHenxzydsNgRzSMHY/my-experience-at-the-controversial-manifest-2024 archived https://archive.ph/oS67O</ref>}}

According to ''[[The Guardian]]'', the gathering of these diversely repugnant speakers is further evidence of the [[TESCREAL]] [[hypothesis]].<ref name=wilson/> 

[[File:Please-ring-bell-for-psychic.jpeg|thumb|right|165px]]
It is rather deliciously [[ironic]] that these two conferences of self-proclaimed longtermerist prognosticators could not see past their own hubris and predict the short-term consequences of the downfall of FTX whose donations were entangled with their own conference property. This lack of ability to foresee the near-term future while proclaiming superior ability to foresee the essentially [[unfalsifiable]] long-term future is essentially equivalent to the [[psychic]] who feels the need to place a "ring bell for psychic" sign on their door: what, the psychic doesn't already know that I'm here?

===GiveWell assessment===
GiveWell's 2012 evaluation of SIAI as a [[charity]]<ref name=givewell/> sets out a number of problems with the organisation, the site and its aims as compared to its verifiable results:
* SIAI's argument for its work is poorly advanced
* Its arguments involve huge consequences of small probabilities ({{wpl|Pascal's mugging}})
* The artificial intelligence propositions advanced do not engage mainstream research and are not endorsed by active researchers in the field
* The group shies away from putting its claims to tests
* Apparent poorly grounded belief in the group's superior general rationality (the point of LessWrong)
* Overall disconnect between SI's goals and its activities.
GiveWell's recommendation was that at this stage (2012), donating to SIAI would work ''against'' the organisation's stated goals, which is approximately the worst thing that one could say about a charity.

Holden Karnofsky of GiveWell (and its spawn, Open Philanthropy) has since quietly walked back his 2012 opinion,<ref>[https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/alexander-berger-is-now-sole-ceo-of-open-philanthropy/ Alexander Berger is Now Sole CEO of Open Philanthropy] (July 27, 2023) ''Open Philanthropy''. Karnofsky was co-founder and co-CEO of Open Philanthropy until mid-2023.</ref><ref>[https://www.openphilanthropy.org/grants/center-for-applied-rationality-general-support/ Center for Applied Rationality — General Support] (July 2016)  ''Open Philanthropy''. Amount: $1,035,000.</ref><ref>[https://www.openphilanthropy.org/grants/machine-intelligence-research-institute-general-support-2016/ Machine Intelligence Research Institute — General Support (2016)] (August 2016) ''Open Philanthropy''. Amount: $500,000.</ref><ref>[https://www.openphilanthropy.org/grants/machine-intelligence-research-institute-general-support-2017/ Machine Intelligence Research Institute — General Support (2017)] (October 2017) ''Open Philanthropy''. Amount: $3,750,000.</ref><ref>[https://www.openphilanthropy.org/grants/machine-intelligence-research-institute-ai-safety-retraining-program/ Machine Intelligence Research Institute — AI Safety Retraining Program] (June 2018) ''Open Philanthropy''. Amount: $150,000.</ref><ref>[https://www.openphilanthropy.org/grants/machine-intelligence-research-institute-general-support-2019/ Machine Intelligence Research Institute — General Support (2019)] (February 2019) ''Open Philanthropy''. Amount: $2,652,500.</ref><ref>[https://www.openphilanthropy.org/grants/machine-intelligence-research-institute-general-support-2020/ Machine Intelligence Research Institute — General Support (2020)] (February 2020) ''Open Philanthropy''. Amount: $7,703,750.</ref> and the longtermist end of the [[effective altruism]] subculture has worked closely with Yudkowsky on existential risk<ref>Mollie Gleiberman, "Effective Altruism and the strategic ambiguity of ‘doing good’," ''IOB Discussion Paper'' 2023.01 (April 2023) https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:iob:dpaper:2023.01</ref> &nbsp;— while trying to marginalize the people who want to focus on helping people today.<ref>[https://www.vox.com/2015/8/10/9124145/effective-altruism-global-ai I spent a weekend at Google talking with nerds about charity. I came away … worried.] by Dylan Matthews (10 August 2015) ''Vox''.</ref>

===Jeffrey Epstein===
{{main|Jeffrey Epstein}}
In 2009, MIRI (then known as the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence) received a $50,000 donation from Jeffrey Epstein, who had pleaded guilty to solicitation of [[prostitution]] [[Pedophilia|with a minor]] in 2008.<ref>[https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/jeffrey-epstein-science-donations-apologies-statements Jeffrey Epstein’s Links To Scientists Are Even More Extensive Than We Thought] by Peter Aldhous (Updated on August 27, 2019 at 7:02 am) ''BuzzFeed News''.</ref><ref name=becker/>{{rp|141}}

==In popular culture==
* ''Zendegi'' by Greg Egan (2010) features Nate Caplan, who wants to be uploaded. "My IQ is one hundred and sixty ... You can always reach me through my blog, Overpowering Falsehood dot com, the number one site for rational thinking about the future —" The novel also features the Benign Superintelligence Bootstrap Project, which persuades a billionaire to donate his fortune, hoping that the "being of truly God-like powers" will grant him immortality come the Singularity. He dies disappointed, and the Project "turn[s] five billion dollars into nothing but padded salaries and empty verbiage."<ref>[http://gareth-rees.livejournal.com/31182.html ''Zendegi'' by Greg Egan] review by Gareth Rees (2010-08-17) ''LiveJournal''.</ref><ref>''Zendegi'' by Greg Egan (2010) Night Shade Books. ISBN 1597801755.</ref>
* ''Elementary'' S3E4, "Bella" (2014), features an artificial intelligence and the theory that a member of the Existential Threat Research Association killed its creator to increase the credibility of their anti-AI message. Also includes discourse on "the terror of mortality" and some I-know-that-you-know-that-I-know discussions between Sherlock and his suspect.<ref>[http://buddy2blogger.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/bella-elementary-artificial-intelligence-review-recap-summary-plot-spoilers-season-3-episode-4.html Elementary Season 3 Episode 4 "Bella" — Recap and Review] ''Buddy2Blogger''.</ref>
* ''The Basilisk Murders: A Sarah Turner Mystery'' by Andrew Hickey (2017). {{isbn|1549999869}}. A satirical murder mystery set in the world of transhumanists and singularitarians.
* ''Ex Machina'',<ref>[http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0470752/ Ex Machina] ''IMDb''.</ref> a movie about a reclusive AI genius who [https://i.pinimg.com/originals/37/0d/b3/370db3578a5e076faeb4394e9ed82530.jpg resembles Yudkowsky] physically, but not in his ability to actually build the type of sci-fi stuff he writes about.

==See also==
{{collist|2|
*[[AI-box experiment]]
*[[Debate:LessWrong]]
*[[Dunning-Kruger effect]]
*[[Futurism]]
*[[Game theory]]
*[[High IQ society]]
*[[MetaMed]] — a LessWrong-inspired failure from blindly following Bayesian statistics
*[[Transhumanism]]
}}

==External links==
*[http://lesswrong.com/ LessWrong]
:*[http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/f5b/the_problem_with_rational_wiki/ The Problem With Rational Wiki], LessWrong
:*[http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/2ti/greg_egan_disses_standins_for_overcoming_bias/ Greg Egan disses SIAI], LessWrong
*[http://lesswrong.com/lw/m81/leaving_lesswrong_for_a_more_rational_life/ Leaving LessWrong for a more rational life], written by a LessWrong member describing the problems with LessWrong and why he will be leaving
*[https://archive.ph/9Ttkc Alexander Kruel], a blogger with some past association with LessWrong and current association with the transhumanist community. Often critical of LessWrong claims.
*[https://web.archive.org/web/20130910231534/http://www.plover.net/~bonds/cultofbayes.html The Cult of Bayes' Theorem]
*[https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/6tt3gy/a_history_of_the_rationality_community/dloghua/ Reddit post] where prominent LessWrong member [[Scott Alexander]] describes why the LessWrong community fragmented

==Notes==
{{reflist|group=note}}

==References==
{{reflist|2|80%}}

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[[Category:California]]
[[Category:Clogosphere]]
[[Category:Consequentialism]]
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[[Category:Futurism]]
[[Category:LessWrong|*]]
[[Category:Oligarchic escapes]]
[[Category:Pissed at us]]
[[Category:Pseudoscience promoting organizations]]
[[Category:Rationalism]]
[[Category:Thielsphere]]
[[Category:Transhumanism]]

Categories: Blogs, California, Clogosphere, Consequentialism, Cults, Epsteinsphere, Futurism, LessWrong, Oligarchic escapes, Pissed at us, Pseudoscience promoting organizations, Rationalism, Thielsphere, Transhumanism