Galileo gambit

[[File:Galileo facing the Roman Inquisition.jpg|thumb|right|225px|Galileo faces the Roman Inquisition. You are not that guy.]]
{{logicnav}}
{{cquote|'''Doctor''': Now, many of the medical profession are [[sceptical]] about my work. They point to my record of treatment of athlete's foot sufferers — eighty-four dead, sixty-five severely wounded and twelve missing believed cured. But then, people laughed at Bob Hope, [[Persecution complex|people laughed at my wife when she wrapped herself up in greaseproof paper and hopped into the Social Security office]], but that doesn't mean that [[Pasteur]] was wrong!|||[[Monty Python]]<ref>[http://www.montypython.net/scripts/vicarsales.php Vicar <nowiki>[Salesman]</nowiki>, Monty Python's Flying Circus] ''MontyPython.net''.</ref>}}
{{cquote|It is not enough to wear the mantle of Galileo: that you be persecuted by an unkind establishment. You must also be right.|||[[Robert L. Park]]}}
The '''Galileo gambit''' (also '''Galileo syndrome'''<ref>''The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe: How to Know What's Really Real in a World Increasingly Full of Fake'' by Steven Novella et al. (2018) Grand Central Publishing. ISBN 9781538760536.</ref>{{rp|165-166}} and '''Galileo fallacy''') is a [[logical fallacy]] that asserts that if your ideas provoke the establishment to supposedly vilify or threaten you, then you must be right — "everyone says I am wrong, ''therefore'' I am right."

Users of the fallacy are to be understood as being essentially "Galileo wannabes".

The fallacy refers to [[Galileo Galilei]]'s famous persecution at the hands of the [[Roman Catholic Church]] for his defence of [[heliocentrism]] in the face of the orthodox [[Biblical literalism]] of the day (though some [[alternative medicine]] proponents use [[Ignaz Semmelweis]] instead of Galileo). People use this [[argument]] repeatedly in response to serious criticisms that more often than not they just don't understand. What proponents of this fallacy fail to consider is that not all people who challenge the mainstream [[scientific consensus]] are martyrs or revolutionaries; in most cases, they are just simply morons.

It essentially conflates the way one is treated with the reason one is treated that way. An extreme example of this might be the treatment of criminals under totalitarianism; while many genuine political dissidents were imprisoned in Siberia under Soviet rule, so were many thieves, murderers and rapists. It does not follow that because the first group were persecuted for political reasons that the criminals were in the right. Likewise, a major manufacturer may take steps against someone who is about to expose their appalling pollution or human rights records, but they will also pursue someone who is making libellous and false statements about them.

The fallacy is an [[appeal to the minority]], an [[appeal to authority]], a [[conditional fallacy]], and an [[association fallacy]], all wrapped up in one. Also related to [[argument from ignorance]].

==Form==
The structure of the argument is:
{{syl
|2='''A''' is '''X''' and '''Y'''
|4='''B''' is '''X'''.
|5=C|6='''B''' is '''Y'''.
}}

or more specifically:
{{syl
|2=Galileo was persecuted and was correct.
|4=I am persecuted.
|5=C|6=I am correct.
}}

:They made fun of Galileo, and he was right.
:They make fun of me, therefore ''I'' am right.

==Examples==
{{cquote|First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then in a surprisingly high number of cases it turns out you're still wrong.|||Quietuus<ref>[http://archive.ph/lzd7v http://archive.ph/lzd7v] by Quietuus (December 5, 2016) '"Reddit'' (archived from 6 Dec 2016 12:03:07 UTC).</ref>}}
It is freakishly common among [[creationists]] and [[global warming denialist]]s alike against the evil [[scientific consensus]], but can also be seen in the arguments made by people supporting any kind of fringe science and pseudoscience. Examples include:

*Chris Woollams of [[CANCERactive]] blogging as "Galileo Galilei"
*A [[global warming denial]] site calling itself "The Galileo Movement"<ref>Douglas Fischer. [https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/galileo-movement-fuels-australia-climate-change-divide/ "Galileo Movement" Fuels Climate Change Divide in Australia]. ''Scientific American.'' August 16, 2011.</ref>
*Comparing the current status of anti-aging technology to the status of aviation before the Wright Brothers successfully demonstrated their first flight of an airplane.

It is also common for proponents of [[scientific racism]] to play the victim card and claim they are being censored by a massive "politically correct" conspiracy when, in reality, their ideas are just simply pseudoscientific bullshit.

The Galileo gambit isn't just for crank scientists. Business executives can get in on it too. For example, during [[Enron]]'s final months, as the lawsuits piled up and the SEC closed in, a small (and gradually dwindling) faction of employees were firmly convinced that the company had done no wrong, claiming that they were being persecuted for trying to shake up the industry rather than for committing fraud. They went by the motto, "You can always tell who the pioneers are, because they're the ones with arrows in their backs."<ref>''The Smartest Guys in the Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron'' by Bethany McLean and Peter Elkind (2004) Penguin Books ISBN 1591840538</ref>{{rp|413}} 

===The Galileo gambit in politics===
{{cquote|[I]t's important to point out here that people with out-of-the-mainstream ideas who compare themselves to [[Edison]] and [[Galileo Galilei|Galileo]] are ''never actually right''… I can guarantee you [[Einstein]] did not go around telling people, "Look, I know this theory of [[general relativity]] sounds wacky, but that's what they said about Galileo!"|||{{wpl|Jordan Ellenberg}}<ref>''How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking'', Jordan Ellenberg</ref>}}
A common usage of this fallacy in politics today is for a [[politician]] or other figure to "play the victim," pointing at people's opposition to their political program as evidence of its "[[Sound science|soundness]]."

In the [[West]], this dodge was first employed on a large scale by early [[Christians]], many of whom deliberately entered into confrontations with the [[Rome|Roman]] state and then obtained [[martyr]] status when they were executed, all according to plan.<ref>[http://www.newadvent.org/cathen/05121a.htm Donatists], New Advent</ref> This allowed the Church to ask such questions as, "[[Argumentum ad martyrdom|Would the Disciples die]] [[Historical evidence for the existence of Jesus Christ|for a lie]]?"

The right wing think tank [[PragerU]] realised a video for kids called [https://youtu.be/E4Tw3liX8m8?si=IHqAhl5K_KlW1Dwb Leo & Layla's History Adventures with Galileo] where they used Galileo for not trusting "goverment science".

==Potentially legitimate examples==

Examples of actual Galileo-like figures are exceedingly rare, and it's even rarer when those figures actually proclaim themselves as Galileo-like figures. (After all, if you have actual evidence to back yourself up, why would you need to rely on such a gambit?) Still, it might occur from time to time. Some examples may include (though the stories behind all of these examples turn out to be far more complicated when you look into details):

* Other proponents of the heliocentric model like [[Copernicus]] or [[Kepler]]
* [[Gregor Mendel]], whose work on genetics was largely ignored during his lifetime
* [[Ignaz Semmelweis]], whose advocacy for antiseptic practices was dismissed by medical practitioners
* Alfred Wegener, whose [[Plate tectonics|theory of continental drift]] was rejected by his contemporaries
* Critics of [[Lysenkoism]], who were ostracized by the [[Soviet Union]]
* Some [[whistleblowers]], like Karen Silkwood or Jeffrey Wigand, recognized health concerns that were suppressed or ignored by corporations or governments

Reminder: the existence of counterexamples does not nullify the fact that the Galileo gambit is, by all means, a fallacy.

==Problems==
[[File:Galileo Gambit Venn Diagram.jpg|thumb|right|Sometimes, everyone is calling you an idiot because you're actually an idiot.]]
{{cquote|The chief problem with the Galileo gambit is the failure to understand the difference between a well-established scientific law and [[religious]] [[dogma]].|||[[Steven Novella]]}}
In [[reality]], taking up the mantle of Galileo requires not just that you are scorned by the establishment but also that ''you are correct''<ref group=note>One might argue that, since [[Nicolaus Copernicus]] was not persecuted for his theory (he died in 1543), it's just Galileo. (The difference here is Copernicus did not actively spread the idea, while Galileo did. Also, Galileo tended to provoke those holding the opposing viewpoint, and this often leads to one's ideas not getting the reception they deserve.)</ref> — that is, that the [[evidence]] supports your position. There is no link between being [[Persecution complex|"persecuted"]] and actually being correct. However, the [[selective reporting]] of cases where people who were persecuted or ostracized for beliefs and ideas that later turned out to be valid has instilled a confidence in [[woo]] promoters and [[pseudoscience|pseudoscientists]] that is difficult to shake. They forget the part where they have to ''prove themselves right'' in order to be like Galileo.

The fallacy as normally used relies, to a large extent, on misrepresenting the refusal of the [[scientific]] community to publish or engage with [[crank]]s as "[[censorship]]."

The gambit takes many forms, but in most cases someone using it to promote their ideas will highlight their [[Persecution complex|perceived persecution]]. This supposed persecution is blown out of all proportion until an observer almost has no choice but to accept their ideas practically as a sympathy vote. Such tactics are used in the "documentary" ''[[Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed]]'', which focused on several academics who supposedly lost jobs because they promoted [[intelligent design]] as a valid [[hypothesis]]. The film portrayed this as a violation of [[Intelligent design and academic freedom|academic freedom]] and played the persecution card extensively. Among those capable of indulging this gambit, mere opposition to their [[crankery]] alone may be sufficient to induce the belief that they are being persecuted and, hence, were right all along.

Cranks who use the gambit to claim persecution by "[[Big Science]]" often fail to see the [[irony]] in the comparison — it was the ''Catholic Church'' that censored Galileo, not the "scientific establishment".

An additional irony arises when we consider that if the maverick idea ''does'' manage to amass enough evidence to win over the majority, it will become the new consensus — at which point, by the fallacy's own reasoning, the idea must become wrong! After all, a new "Galileo" might assert that the [[Earth]] is indeed the [[Universe]]'s stationary center ([[Modern geocentrism|some people actually do assert this]]). The [[astronomy|astronomers]] who would disagree and point and laugh, by the fallacy's line of reasoning, are just the Catholic Church all over again, and they won't have the last laugh (though taking this a step further, neither will the new "Galileo"; an alternating series of laughs will terminate only when the [[human]] race disappears). This kind of madness may be consistent with certain flavors of [[postmodernism]], but then again, so is everything else.

=="You get the most flak when you're over the target"==
{{cquote|First They Ignore You, Then They Ridicule You, Then They Fight You, Then You Win.|||A quote [[Deceit|constantly misattributed]] to Gandhi<ref>[https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Gandhi Gandhi] ''Wikiquote''.</ref><ref>[https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/first-they-ignore-you/ ‘First They Ignore You, Then They Laugh at You’ Quote Isn't Gandhi's] by Dan Evon (1 March 2016) ''Snopes''.</ref> and [[Argumentum ad nauseam|proudly repeated like a mantra]] by any Galileo gambiteer worth his weight in salt}}
"You get the most flak when you're over the target" is a pseudo-logical gambit, a favorite of [[Internet]] argument used as a substitute for [[rational]] rebuttal. Its intention, of course, is to prove that a hopelessly-irrational woo proposition ''must be right'' because opponents are taking the trouble to criticize it. The popularity of this fallacious way of thinking is one major reason why real scientists are often reluctant to [[debate]] creationists.

*Apparently, the [[contrapositive]] does not apply. Woo-proponents have never been known to write, "I must be wrong because I'm not being criticized", and will also use a ''lack'' of criticism as evidence for their position.

*You get flak when you're bombing something that doesn't want to be bombed, whether or not it's a legitimate target.

*Flak-based anti-aircraft positions are typically set up in a defensive pattern, either ''away from'' or ''around'' a target — the point being to take down potential bombers ''before'' they are ever in a position to actually deploy their bombs. So, when you're directly over the target (read: when the anti-aircraft defenses have failed to stop you) you would actually be getting '''less''' flak.

*Bombers dodging flak (and war-fighting in general) is an arena where might makes right, so any analogy based on it is [[False analogy|highly suspect]] in an arena where ''being correct'' is supposed to make right.

==See also==
{{collist|2|
*[[Argumentum ad martyrdom]]
*[[Association fallacy]]
*[[Big science]]
*[[Arthur C. Clarke]]'s First Law
*[[Confirmation bias]]
*''[[Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed]]''
*[[Hostile media effect]]
*[[Jonanism]]
*[[Paranoia]]
*[[Persecution complex]]
*[[Science was wrong before]]
}}

==External links==
* [http://gretachristina.typepad.com/greta_christinas_weblog/2007/09/the-galileo-fal.html The Galileo Fallacy, and the Gadfly Corollary], [[Greta Christina]] 
* [http://oracknows.blogspot.com/2005/03/galileo-gambit.html The Galileo Gambit], [[Respectful Insolence]]
* [http://www.science20.com/adaptive_complexity/bad_science_journalism_and_myth_oppressed_underdog Bad Science Journalism and the Myth of the Oppressed Underdog], Science 2.0
* [[Steven Novella]] (March 19 2012) [http://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/galileo-syndrome-and-the-principle-of-exclusion/ "Galileo Syndrome and the Principle of Exclusion"]

==Notes==
{{reflist|group=note}}

==References==
{{reflist|2|80%}}

{{logfal}}

[[Category:Appeals to authority]]
[[Category:Conditional fallacies]]
[[Category:Science]]

[[ru:Уловка Галилея]]

Categories: Appeals to authority, Conditional fallacies, Science