Demographic crisis

A '''[[Demographics|demographic]] crisis''' is a situation where the population of a territory, or the world, is not sustainable. One kind of demographic crisis is [[overpopulation]]. However, instead of overpopulation, UN now predicts that the world will have a peak population of around 10.4 billion in mid-2080s and then the world population will start to decrease, assuming the current trend of the worldwide decline of fertility rate.<ref name=":10">{{Cite web |date=2022 |title=World Population Prospects, Standard Projections, Archive, 2022 Revision, Compact File, Estimates tab, Total Population as of 1 January (thousands) column |url=https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Archive/Standard/ |website=United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.}}</ref><ref name=":11">{{Cite web |date=2022 |title=World Population Prospects, Standard Projections, Archive, 2022 Revision, Compact File, Median Variant tab, Total Population as of 1 January (thousands) column |url=https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Archive/Standard/ |website=United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division}}</ref> Since there are no good reasons to believe that [[aging]] will be cured or significantly delayed in the next decades, this means we should envision what a world full of old people would be like.

==Demographic crunch==
Many developed countries have birth rates too low to sustain their own population. [[Russia]] in the 1990s, as well as [[Germany]] and [[Japan]] currently, are notable examples. [[China]], a developing country which formerly had a [[one-child policy]], has a below replacement level of fertility.<ref>[https://www.statista.com/statistics/270164/fertility-rate-in-china/ Fertility rate in China 2008-2018], Statista.com</ref>

==Aging population==
Aging population is a phenomenon where the population ages due to low birthrates. The result is that the supply of workers (working age population) decreases and demand for elder care increases. Aging population can be observed in countries experiencing reduced growth rates due to economic development.

Aging population is feared by countries due to perceived difficulty in affording elder care with lower tax revenue. As a result, countries attempt to boost fertility with advertisements and incentives, and offset population loss by increasing immigration.

Even if we see population aging as a real issue, so far there's no real solutions for population aging other than adopting a more lenient immigration policy and accommodating the society for the actual needs of older people. Most other claimed solutions for population aging are either too fanciful to be taken into consideration seriously (for example, anti-aging medications or [[mind uploading]]), or are blatant human right violations (for example, forcing people to give more birth, like what the Romanian government did under a Communist regime), or both. But here begs the question: is population aging even a problem?

===Criticism===
Fear of aging population is based on the misguided theory that income comes from population, when in fact income comes from production — which depends on the amount of resources and ability to process resources. Improved production efficiencies cause increase in supply or reduced cost, causing deflation and enabling the issuance of more currency.

In developing nations, there is less use of technology and machinery, so the ability to process resources largely depends on the quantity of workers. Wealthier developed nations are able to harness the latest technologies to increase production and reduce costs, and thus unlink productivity from population. While nations fear aging population, an opposite crisis of technological unemployment is brewing due to the vast productivity gains of artificial intelligence — the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Technology always reduces workers needed to produce each unit of goods. When efficiency gains are made, it can be applied towards increasing production or reducing cost. As modern markets are saturated and resources are strained, the only sustainable option is to reduce costs — and reduce workers needed.

Unemployment is low due to low workforce participation and a high quantity of non-essential jobs. Pressures to automate and reduce cost includes pressures of economic recession and reducing human contact due to public health concerns — without an effort to artificially create jobs, technological employment will offset aging population.

==Minority population bomb==
In many countries, minorities have higher fertility rates than majorities. This is the case in the [[United States]] and [[Israel]].

This phenomenon can be cited in a [[racist]] context, to express minority population growth as a threat. Especially population growth among Muslims in Europe has been cited as a [[Eurabia|threat against Western culture]].

==See also==
*[[Malthusianism]]
*[[White extinction scenario]]

==References==
{{reflist}}

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[[Category:Statistics]]

Categories: Statistics