Ray Kurzweil

[[File:Raymond Kurzweil Fantastic Voyage.jpg|thumb|165px|right|Trust me.]]
{{pseudoscience}}
{{cquote|It's as if you took a lot of very good food and some dog excrement and blended it all up so that you can't possibly figure out what's good or bad. It's an intimate mixture of rubbish and good ideas, and it's very hard to disentangle the two, because these are smart people; they're not stupid.|||[[Douglas Hofstadter]] on Kurzweil<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20140118213845/https://www.americanscientist.org/bookshelf/pub/douglas-r-hofstadter "An interview with Douglas R. Hofstadter"] by Greg Ross, American Scientist, interviewed in January 2007, archived interview on 2014 January 18</ref>}}
'''Raymond "Ray" Kurzweil''' {{lived|1948|}} is a well-known [[United States|American]] inventor, [[futurism|futurist]], and advocate of the [[transhumanist]] belief cluster with a truly overwhelming fear of [[death]], brought about by the death of his father from a heart attack at age 57 when he was 22.<ref name=becker>''More Everything Forever: AI Overlords, Space Empires, and Silicon Valley's Crusade to Control the Fate of Humanity'' by Adam Becker (2025) Basic Books. ISBN 1541619595.</ref>{{rp|40}} This peculiar fear is so great that he has convinced himself that his father will be brought back to life as an [[artificial intelligence]] simulation, and somehow be even more like his father than his father would be if he had not died.<ref name=becker/>{{rp|39-41}}

He makes [[prediction]]s about what science and humanity will achieve in the next ten, twenty, or hundred years, and the press lap it up. Kurzweil has a mixed record of success and failure as a futurist.<ref>[https://www.businessinsider.com/15-startling-incredible-and-provactive-predictions-from-googles-genius-futurist-2015-9?r=US&IR=T 5 amazing predictions by futurist Ray Kurzweil that came true — and 4 that haven't] by Drake Baer, ''Business Insider'', October 20, 2015</ref>

==The good stuff==
Kurzweil is, in fact, a significant figure with a track record of achievement. Prior to his futurist work, he was a major pioneer in the fields of optical character recognition and computer-assisted reading (Stevie Wonder is a personal friend of his) as well as digital [[music]] synthesis (his K250 keyboard was the first to use recorded samples for tone generation).<ref group=note>Kurzweil Music Systems, originally based in Massachusetts, was sold to a Korean company now owned by Hyundai in 1990; Kurzweil was brought back as chief strategist in 2007.</ref> From a [[Technology|technological]] standpoint, Kurzweil is nearly as important to modern music as Les Paul (jazz musician, and pioneer of the solid-body electric guitar and multi-track tape recording) and Bob Moog (creator of the first commercial synthesizer), and he's also an important figure in accessibility for people with [[Disability|disabilities]].

==Transferable expertise==
Kurzweil has an unfortunate tendency to think that being brilliant at computer science means every other specialty can be [[engineers and woo|treated as a special case of computer science]]. He thinks that the [[genome]] contains all the information needed to grow a [[brain]], therefore it is a problem of {{wpl|Kolmogorov complexity}} and computer science, therefore we will be able to simulate one on computers by 2030.<ref>Kurzweil, Ray. [http://www.kurzweilai.net/ray-kurzweil-responds-to-ray-kurzweil-does-not-understand-the-brain "Ray Kurzweil Responds to 'Ray Kurzweil does not understand the brain'."] ''Kurzweil Accelerating Intelligence'' blog, 2010-08-20.</ref> Experts on the [[evolution]] of brains think Kurzweil does not understand [[biology]] and thinks the genome works like a blueprint, whereas most qualified biologists think the right analogy is a recipe that takes as a starting assumption the informational content of ''the rest of life on Earth''.<ref>[[PZ Myers]]. [http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2010/08/ray_kurzweil_does_not_understa.php "Ray Kurzweil does not understand the brain."] ''Pharyngula'', 2010-08-17.</ref><ref group=note>Chapter 8 of ''The Greatest Show On Earth'' by [[Richard Dawkins]] is a ''tour de force'' on just how embryo development follows a "recipe" model and not a "blueprint" model at all. You will be smarter after reading it. Not conveniently online, but hey, books are good for you.</ref> In the case of the human brain, it literally cannot physically develop correctly except in the presence of a human ''culture'' (e.g., see [[Feral child]]).<ref group=note>Really: if you're not brought up by [[human]]s, bits of your brain don't grow right. ''e.g.'' if you're brought up by wolves, you'll never learn a language and the neurons in your language center atrophy. Kurzweil may be technically, though not usefully, approximately correct about the genome containing almost all the information needed to grow a fresh newborn's brain.</ref> This leads to a certain exasperation on the part of those who actually know what they're talking about.<ref>[[PZ Myers]]. [http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2010/08/kurzweil_still_doesnt_understa.php "Kurzweil still doesn't understand the brain."] ''Pharyngula'', 2010-08-21.</ref><ref>[http://www.boingboing.net/2011/07/14/far.html The Singularity Is Far] (David J. Linden, ''BoingBoing'', 2011-07-14). "The central problem here is that Kurzweil is conflating biological data collection with biological insight."</ref>

==The Singularity==

===''The Singularity Is Near''===
Kurzweil published ''The Singularity Is Near'' in 2005.<ref>''The Singularity Is Near'' by Ray Kurzweil (2005) Viking. ISBN 9780670033843.</ref> The book was praised for its lucidity, but also criticized for promoting the exponential growth fallacy, which is fallacious because while exponential growth can sometimes occur, it never lasts,<ref>[https://www.singularity.com/When_computers_take_over.pdf When computers take over: What if the current exponential increase in information-processing power could continue unabated?] by Paul Davies (2006) ''Nature'' 437(440):421-422.</ref> and that much of Kurzweil's "thinking tends to be pie in the sky".<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/03/books/will-the-future-be-a-trillion-times-better.html Will the Future Be a Trillion Times Better?] by Janet Maslin (Oct. 3, 2005) ''The New York Times''.</ref>

Adam Becker noted that Kurzweil made three fundamental errors in his argument by presenting a log-log graph of [[evolutionary]] and technological history.<ref name=becker/>{{rp|45,57-63}}
#The graph showed a near-straight line while claiming that it showed an exponential trend when it was actually a linear trend (''if'' it was a log-linear scale with a straight line, ''then'' it would have shown an exponential trend).
#The graph showed events that were [[Cherry picking|cherry-picked]], [[Human exceptionalism|human-centric]] for evolution, and selective memory for technology (resulting in a type logarithmic memory).
#A less obvious problem is that the singularity depends on [[Moore's Law]] lasting indefinitely, when it is no longer valid for one aspect (cost/transistor), and expected to cease being valid with regard to number of transistors per integrated circuit starting in the 2030s due to atomic physical limitations.

===Singularity University===
Undeterred by criticism, Kurzweil is keen to share his knowledge and insight. You, yes ''you'' the corporate executive, can spend $15,000 of company money on a 9-day Executive Training Session, or a 10-week graduate studies course for $25,000, to learn all about exponentially advancing technologies.<ref>[http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/software/ray-kurzweils-slippery-futurism/0  Ray Kurzweil’s Slippery Futurism. His stunning prophecies have earned him a reputation as a tech visionary, but many of them don’t look so good on close inspection] by John Rennie (29 Nov 2010) ''IEEE Spectrum''.</ref>

Any qualms you may have about the unaccredited organisation will be put to rest by the faculty page in 2017, when the faculty were still listed: one actual non-honorary PhD, three medical doctors, several bloggers and some wealthy businessmen.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20150814134140/http://singularityu.org/faculty/ Faculty + Speakers] ''Singularity University'' (archived from August 14, 2015).</ref> No proper resumes listed. The list is nothing like the faculty page of a real university; it does look quite a lot like what a [[hype]] machine [[Dunning-Kruger effect|that didn't understand its own incompetence]] at being the thing it claims to be would look like.

Since its founding the organization has faced accusations of [[Rape|sexual harassment]], embezzlement, and [[discrimination]],<ref>[https://archive.ph/cNE5A Silicon Valley’s Singularity University Is Cutting Staff, CEO Exits] by Sarah McBride (November 12, 2019, 9:59 PM UTC) ''Bloomberg'' (archived from 18 Feb 2020 03:57:02 UTC).</ref><ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20190130000132/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-15/silicon-valley-s-singularity-university-has-some-serious-reality-problems Silicon Valley’s Singularity University Has Some Serious Reality Problems] by Sarah McBride (February 15, 2018 at 6:00 AM PST) ''Bloomberg Businessweek'' (archived from January 30, 2019).</ref> so apparently the techno-future will be just like the past in these regards.

==Nanotechnology==
{{main|Nanotechnology}}
In line with most misconceptions about nanotechnology, Kurzweil thinks nanobots of the "industrial robot scaled down a billion times" kind are achievable,<ref name=wired>[https://web.archive.org/web/20080730043920/http://www.wired.com/medtech/health/news/2005/02/66585 Never Say Die: Live Forever] (02.12.05) ''Associated Press'' via ''Wired'' (archived from July 30, 2008).</ref> rather than requiring violations of [[physics]].<ref>[http://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/nanotechnology/rupturing-the-nanotech-rapture Rupturing The Nanotech Rapture: Biological nanobots could repair and improve the human body, but they'll be more bio than bot] Richard A.L. Jones, ''IEEE Spectrum'', June 2008</ref> He then actively propagates this misconception.

==Predictions==
Kurzweil is well-known for numerous technological predictions, many of which have not come true in the timeframe he proposed. Here are some failed predictions made in his 1999 book ''{{wpl|The Age of Spiritual Machines}}'' for the subsequent 10 and 20 years:<ref>{{cite book|last1=Kurzweil|first1=Ray|title=The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence|date=1999|publisher=Penguin|location=New York, NY|isbn=978-0-14-028202-3|page=195}}</ref>
;2009
* Most text will be created using speech recognition technology.
* People will use personal computers the size of rings and pins.
* Computer displays built into eyeglasses for augmented reality will be used.
* Artificial voices will sound fully human.
* High resolution audio-visual cybersex will be common.
* Personal artificial digital assistants will be in widespread use.
* The typical home will have over 100 computers in it, many of which are embedded in appliances.
* Many households will have one or more robots that perform some type of housekeeping.
* Audio-visual virtual reality will enter the mass market. Users will be able to digitally tour real locations or play in highly immersive fantasy worlds. 
* "Telemedicine": devices will monitor and relay health-related data of many patients and send that information to doctors remotely.

;2019
* Computers will be embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.)
* Household robots will be ubiquitous and reliable.
* People will experience 3D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). 
* Most business transactions or information inquiries will involve dealing with a simulated person.
* Cables connecting computers and peripherals will have almost completely disappeared.  
* Pinhead-sized cameras will be everywhere.
* Computers will have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete.
* Most learning will be accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers.
* Deaf people will use special glasses that convert music into images or tactile sensations. 
* {{wpl|Haptic technology}}, now fully matured and combined with virtual reality, will be the preferred sexual medium since it is safe and enhances the experience.
* Computers will do most of the vehicle driving and humans will be in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. 
* Humans will begin to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which hold some advantages over human partners.
* Most flying weapons will be bird-sized robots. Some will be as small as insects.
* Average life expectancy will be over 100. (Japanese women, the longest-living group by gender and nation, live an average of 87.1 years according to 2018 data.<ref>[https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/07/27/life-expectancies-2018-japan-switzerland-spain/848675002/ What countries have the longest life expectancies?] by Marina Pitofsky (August 5, 2018) ''USA Today''.</ref> The world average for both genders was 70.5 years from 2010 to 2015).

Yet, Kurzweil claimed in his 2010 report ''[http://www.kurzweilai.net/images/How-My-Predictions-Are-Faring.pdf How My Predictions Are Faring]'', in which he analyzes predictions in this and other two of his books, that [[confirmation bias|most of them were correct]]. Of the 147 total predictions, Kurzweil claims that 115 were "entirely correct", 12 were "essentially correct", 17 were "partially correct", and only 3 were "wrong". Adding together the "entirely" and "essentially" correct, Kurzweil's claimed accuracy rate comes to 86%. We will leave it to the reader to judge how accurate these listed predictions actually were.

==Nutritional woo==
[[File:Ray-Kurzweil-at-SXSW 2024 7.jpg|thumb|right|300px|Kurzweil, failing to look age 40 in 2024]]
He is very fond of [[nutritional supplement]]s (he takes 200 supplemental pills a day)<ref>Gary Wolf. [http://www.wired.com/medtech/drugs/magazine/16-04/ff_kurzweil?currentPage=all "Futurist Ray Kurzweil Pulls Out All the Stops (and Pills) to Live to Witness the Singularity."] ''Wired'' '''16''' 4, April 2008.</ref> and [[alkaline diet|alkaline water]]<ref>{{wayback|http://glowing-health.com/alkaline-water/ray-kurzweil-alkaine-water.html|date=20071211025359}} This reads like a parody of the concept of woo.</ref> and getting scientifically untested longevity treatments. When his followers start an argument with "look, [[Argumentum ad verecundiam|Kurzweil's a smart guy, right?]]" see if they will acknowledge his propensity for untested [[alt-med]] [[woo]] as being ''prima facie'' evidence that his undoubted intelligence in no way means he isn't capable of being utterly wrong.

In his health books, he has also advocated the use of [[Bioidentical Hormone Replacement Therapy|"bioidentical" hormone replacement therapy.]]

He also sold nutritional supplements for longevity from 2008-2011,<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20081120055426/http://www.rayandterry.com/index.asp Ray & Terry's Longevity Products] (archived from November 20, 2008).</ref><ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20111031012740/http://www.rayandterry.com/index.asp Ray & Terry's Longevity Products] (archived from October 31, 2011).</ref>{{efn|That wasn't much longevity!}} which are as good as any others, i.e. 0% solid verified science and 100% [[wishful thinking]]. So is he a [[charlatan]] or a fool?

His nutritional woo also falls within his singulatarianism of endless exponential technological improvements and his failed predictions, claiming in 2009 that by 2024 technology would be able to rejuvenate him to a biological age of forty.<ref name=becker/>{{rp|42}}

Even some [[Singularity|singularitarians]] are starting to show signs of embarrassment at Kurzweil's undeniable left turn into obvious [[pseudoscience]] and are trying to distance themselves from him.<ref>[http://www.sentientdevelopments.com/2010/08/its-not-all-about-ray-theres-more-to.html It's not all about Ray: There's more to Singularity studies than Kurzweil] (George Dvorsky, ''Sentient Developments'' blog, 2010-08-23)</ref><ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20120311084218/http://chronopause.com/index.php/2011/08/11/the-kurzwild-man-in-the-night/ The Kurzwild Man in the Night] (August 11, 2011) ''Chronosphere'' (archived from March 11, 2012).</ref>

===Immortality cocktail===
{{cquote|One form of oligarchical escape is from time, the dream of some that they will live forever. They won't. [[God]] also has a sense of [[irony]]: the surname of the prominent death escapist, Ray Kurzweil, means "a little while."{{efn|''ein kurz Weil'' in German}}|||Timothy Snyder<ref>''On Freedom'' by Timothy Snyder (2024) Crown. ISBN 9780593728727.</ref>{{rp|204}}}}
According to the book Ray co-authored, ''Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever'', there are some 70-something supplements he takes (including [[Bodybuilding woo|testosterone]], if you can call that a supplement).<ref>James Earl Adams III, Siddharth Singhal. [https://www.quora.com/Which-150-supplements-does-Ray-Kurzweil-take-daily "Which 150 supplements does Ray Kurzweil take daily?"]. ''Quora''. Retrieved 21 July 2016.</ref> However, some receive more emphasis by Kurzweil than others.

<small>
{{columns-list|2|
* ''Acidophilus bifodobacter''
* Alpha-lipoic acid (see [[carnitine]])
* [[Antioxidant]] skin creams
* Arginine (see [[amino acid]])
* Aspirin
* Lumbrokinase
* Vitamin B<sub>6</sub>
* Vitamin B<sub>12</sub>
* Betaine.HCl
* Beta-sitosterol
* Bilberry extract
* Carnosine (an amino acid mixture)
* Choline
* Chromium
* Chrysin
* Coenzyme Q10 &mdash; Also known as ubiquinone, this coenzyme resembles a vitamin and is fat-soluble. It takes part in the electron transport chain, participating in aerobic respiration.<ref>[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coenzyme_Q10 "Coenzyme Q10"]. ''Wikipedia''. Retrieved 22 July 2016.</ref> The reason why Ray Kurzweil takes supplements of it is because it is anti-oxidant.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcbbr8ZhoFs "Ray Kurzweil: The Top 3 Supplements for Surviving the Singularity"]. ''YouTube''. ''Big Think''. 20 May 2011.</ref>
* Comprehensive [[multivitamin]]
* [[Curcumin]]
* DHEA
* DMPS
* [[List of medicinal plants#E|Echinacea]]
* EDTA
* EPA/DHA
* [[Fish]] [[protein]]s
* Folic acid
* Fructooligosaccharides
* GABA
* [[List of medicinal plants#G|Garlic]]
* Gentian root
* [[List of medicinal plants#G|Ginger]]
* Glutathione
* Glycerylphosphatidylcholine
* [[List of medicinal plants#G|Grapefruit powder]]
* [[List of medicinal plants#G|Grapeseed extract]]
* [[List of medicinal plants#G|Green tea extract]]
* Gugulipid
* ''Gymnema sylvestra''
* [[Herb]]s (prescribed by Dr. Glenn Rothfeld)
* l-3-C
* l-[[Carnitine]]
* Lecithin
* Lecithine
* ''l''-Glutamine
* Linoleic acid
* Lipitor (a prescription drug for controlling cholesterol)
* ''l''-Theanine
* Lutein
* Lycopene
* Magnesium
* [[Melatonin]]
* Metformin
* ''n''-Acetyl-carnitine
* ''n''-Acetyl-cysteine
* ''n''-Acetyl-''d''-glucosamine
* Nettle (''Urtica dioica'')
* Nextrutine
* Niacin
* Oat bran
* [[Omega-3]]
* [[List of medicinal plants#P|Peppermint]]
* Pepsin
* Phosphatidylcholine - Kurzweil says that this phospholipid depletes with age, and its supplementation can slightly slow down aging.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcbbr8ZhoFs "Ray Kurzweil: The Top 3 Supplements for Surviving the Singularity"]. ''YouTube''. ''Big Think''. 20 May 2011.</ref> He's actually quite right,<ref>[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphatidylcholine#Senescence "Phosphatidylcholine"]. ''Wikipedia''. Retrieved 22 July 2016.</ref> but this phospholipid has not been shown to be effective slowing down certain signs of aging such as dementia.
* Phosphatidylserine
* Plant sterols
* Policosanol
* Psyllium
* PtC
* Pyrodoxal-5-phosphate:
* Quercetin
* [[Resveratrol]]
* [[List of medicinal plants#S|Saw palmetto complex]]
* Silymarine 
* Testosterone (see [[bioidentical hormone replacement therapy]])
* TMG
}}
</small>

==Shorter Ray Kurzweil==
Courtesy John Pavlus:<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20140730203607/http://gunsandelmo.tumblr.com/post/964260019/how-to-make-a-singularity How To Make A Singularity]</ref>
{{quotebox|How to make a Singularity<br>
Step 1: "I wonder if [[Brain woo|brains are just like computers]]?" 
<br>Step 2: Add [[Technobabble|peta-thingies/giga-whatzits]]; say "Moore's Law!" a lot at conferences
<br>Step 3: ??????
<br>Step 4: SINGULARITY!!!11!one}}

==See also==
*[[Aubrey de Grey]]

==External links==
*[http://johnrennie.net/johnrennienet/2010/08/17/how-to-build-a-brain-wrong How to Build a Brain Wrong], John Rennie
*[http://rationallyspeaking.blogspot.com/2011/04/ray-kurzweil-and-singularity-visionary.html Ray Kurzweil and the Singularity: Visionary Genius or Pseudoscientific Crank], Massimo Pigliucci

==Notes==
{{reflist|group=note}}

==References==
{{reflist|2|90%}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Kurzweil, Ray}}
[[Category:Computer scientists]]
[[Category:Engineer woo]]
[[Category:Futurism]]
[[Category:Living people]]
[[Category:Oligarchic escapes]]
[[Category:Pseudoscience promoters]]
[[Category:Science woo]]
[[Category:Transhumanism]]

Categories: Computer scientists, Engineer woo, Futurism, Living people, Oligarchic escapes, Pseudoscience promoters, Science woo, Transhumanism