1992 United Kingdom general election

{{ukpolitics}}
The '''1992 UK general election''' was one of the more interesting results in recent history; where the incumbent [[Conservative Party (UK)|Conservatives]] managed to win a historic fourth consecutive victory – one which the polls said wouldn't happen, and starting some twenty points behind in polling. During a [[recession]]. This contradiction led to the coining of the 'shy Tory factor' (echoing the earlier American phrase '[[Silent Majority]]'); where polling had lowballed public support for the Conservatives due to a perceived [[response bias]] against them (something again noted in the [[2015 United Kingdom general election|2015 election]] and later on in both [[2016 U.S. presidential election|2016]] and [[2020 U.S. presidential election|2020]] US Presidential elections).

The election itself was memorable for the new Conservative leader [[John Major]]'s relatively old-school campaigning with soapbox and impromptu speeches<ref>[http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/march/30/newsid_3739000/3739176.stm 1992: John Major climbs onto his soapbox.] ''BBC News'', 20 March 2008.</ref>, the triumphalism of [[Labour Party|Labour]]'s Neil Kinnock<ref>[https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/rush-of-blood-was-kinnock-s-downfall-1583723.html 'Rush of blood' was Kinnock's downfall.] ''The Independent'', 26 November 1995.</ref> and the claims by ''[[The Sun]]'' that it was behind the victory<ref>[https://www.theguardian.com/media/2012/apr/25/rupert-murdoch-sun-wot-won-it-tasteless 'Sun wot won it' headline was tasteless and wrong.] ''The Guardian'', 25 April 2012.</ref>. It was also the first general election being contested by the newly formed [[Liberal Democrats]] and the first to be covered by a dedicated news channel – [[Rupert Murdoch]]'s Sky News.

==Background==
The early 1990s recession was global, but made worse in Britain due to a series of decisions by the [[Margaret Thatcher|Thatcher]] Government; such as a rapid [[deregulation]] of the finance sector, [[tax cuts]] for the rich and an overvalued currency. [[Nigel Lawson|Thatcherites]] believed they were ushering in a new era of growth; instead they got a ballooning import bill, rapidly rising [[inflation]] and signs of a property bubble<ref group=note>Finance degregulation + 'a strong Pound' = huge inflows of 'hot money' into the UK finance system while making UK production uncompetitive.</ref>. What goes up must come down; by late 1990 interest rates were at 15%, millions experienced the joys of 'the dole' and even more got to learn what 'negative equity' meant.<ref>[https://www.lovemoney.com/news/133/the-last-housing-crash The last housing crash] ''Love Money'', 8 October 2010.</ref>

Thatcher almost certainly would have survived this, if she'd not become obsessed about the '[[Flat tax|poll tax]]' in the meantime. Believing it was the sure-fire way of destroying Labour-run local councils through [[Starve the beast|the purse-strings]]; she [[autocratic]]ally 'handbagged' any and all who opposed her – like her own Cabinet, who were warning her it was deeply unpopular.<ref>[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38382416 National Archives: Thatcher's poll tax miscalculation] ''BBC News'', 30 December 2016.</ref> After ignoring [https://www.theguardian.com/gnm-archive/gallery/2015/mar/28/poll-tax-riots-revisited-in-pictures a few hints] over months, the Conservatives decided to 'dump the pilot'<ref>[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34673606 Ten days that toppled Margaret Thatcher] ''BBC News'', 30 October 2015.</ref> — replacing her with John Major, who soon after threw the poll tax out after her. 

This – along with the end of the [[Cold War]], a successful conclusion to the [[Gulf War]] and the fact Major was a relative unknown politically (allowing the portrayal of them as a 'new' government) led them to claw back enough public support to have them level-pegging with Labour as the election approached.

==Campaign==
The Conservative campaign was rather traditional in scope – [[taxes]], inflation and the immigration – and primarily negative in nature, stating that Labour wanted to '[[Britain is full|open the floodgates]]' and couldn't be trusted with the [[economy]]<ref>[https://www.markpack.org.uk/files/2010/12/Labour-Tax-Bombshell-billboard-poster-1992-general-election.jpg 'Labour Tax Bombshell' Conservative attack poster, 1992] ''Mark Pack-org.uk'', 5 July 2016</ref><ref>[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/politics97/background/pastelec/92keyiss.htm Key Issues in the 1992 Campaign] ''BBC News'', 'Politics 1997'.</ref> (the current recession, naturally not being ''their fault at all'').

Labour also followed a rather traditional pattern; focusing on the state of the [[welfare state]] (particularly the [[NHS]]) as well as the soaring inequality during the previous decade. Learning from the events of the two previous elections, Kinnock had given some effort to portray themselves as a 'government in waiting', with some success. The main thing remembered these days was the fact it was the last 'left wing' manifesto Labour would run on until [[2017 UK general election|2017]]. 

Perhaps surprisingly, it was the much smaller Liberal Democrats which 'won it' for the Tories. Their main policy was – as usual –  that of '[[Proportional representation|electoral reform]]'. However, threats of a 'hung parliament' (due to the close polling) meant they'd be the kingmakers… except the Conservatives made it crystal clear there would be ''no'' change from the '[[first past the post]]' system (and thus, no coalition/agreement). This meant that basically, a vote for Liberal Democrats was in actuality a vote for Kinnock to get into No 10.

This was disastrous. Not only did this scare off many '[[classical liberal]]' voters to whom Labour was 'too [[socialist]]' but the fact Kinnock flip-flopped on the issue meant the Tories presented themselves as the 'only strong and stable' option, instead of the Lib-Lab 'coalition of [[chaos]]' (lines used again in [[2015 United Kingdom general election|2015]] and [[2017 United Kingdom general election|2017]]).

==Results==
[[File:House of Commons 1992 Election.svg|thumb|right|250px|Post-election composition of the House of Commons.]]
It was a shock result; the Conservatives win with a working majority of 21; even the exit polls had shown a hung parliament. While the Conservative vote generally held up well, a combination of a swing from the Liberal Democrats to Labour and some tactical voting meant the majority of seat losses were from the ruling party. The results showed the seeds of future decline; with the Conservative heartland increasingly concentrated in the Southern and Eastern parts of England – areas which had done well from the Thatcher era. Future Labour leader [[Tony Blair]] cited the need to appeal to this group, the aspirational {{wpl|Essex Man|'Essex Man'}} as a prime justification for what would become [[New Labour]].

[[File:1992 United Kingdom General Election.svg|thumb|right|450px|Map of the results.]]

{| class="wikitable"

! Turnout: 77.7% (+2.4%) !! Seats !! Change !! Vote % !! Change
|-
| <u>'''Conservatives'''</u> || '''336''' || <span style="color:red">'''-40'''</span> || '''41.9''' || <span style="color:red">'''-0.3'''</span>
|-
| <u>'''Labour'''</u> || '''271''' || <span style="color:green">'''+42'''</span> || '''34.4''' || <span style="color:green">'''+3.6'''</span>
|-
| <u>'''Liberal Democrats'''</u> || '''20''' || <span style="color:red">'''-2'''</span> || '''17.8''' || <span style="color:red">'''-4.8'''</span>
|-
| <u>'''Other'''</u> || '''24''' || '''+1''' || '''5.9''' || '''+1.5'''
|}

{{clear}}

==External links==
*[https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/exclusive-how-did-labour-lose-in-92-the-most-authoritative-study-of-the-last-general-election-is-published-tomorrow-here-its-authors-present-their-conclusions-and-explode-the-myths-about-the-greatest-upset-since-1945-1439286.html How did Labour lose in '92?] 'Long read', ''The Independent''.

==Notes==
{{reflist|group=note}}

==References==
{{reflist|3|80%}}

[[Category:Elections]]
[[Category:British politics]]
[[Category:UK general elections]]

Categories: Elections, British politics, UK general elections