Dunning–Kruger effect

{{bronze}}
[[File:Dunning-Kruger-Effect-en.png|thumb|right|165px|Despite its popularity, this graph is not an accurate representation of the effect.]]
{{Psychology}}
{{cquote|I am wiser than this man, for neither of us appears to know anything great and good; but he fancies he knows something, although he knows nothing; whereas I, as I do not know anything, so I do not fancy I do. In this trifling particular, then, I appear to be wiser than he, because I do not fancy I know what I do not know.|||attributed to [[Socrates]], from [[Plato]], ''Apology''}}

{{cquote|To be ignorant of one's ignorance is the malady of the ignorant|||{{wpl|Amos Bronson Alcott}}}}

The '''Dunning-Kruger effect''' (also known as '''Mount Stupid'''<ref>[http://www.smbc-comics.com/index.php?db=comics&id=2475#comic Willingness to Opine on a Topic vs. Knowledge of That Topic] ''Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal''.</ref> or '''Smug Snake'''<ref>[http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/SmugSnake Smug Snake] ''TV Tropes''.</ref>) is named after David Dunning and Justin Kruger for their seminal paper of 1999.<ref name=dunning>[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/12688660_Unskilled_and_Unaware_of_It_How_Difficulties_in_Recognizing_One%27s_Own_Incompetence_Lead_to_Inflated_Self-Assessments Unskilled and unaware of it: how difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments] by Justin Kruger & David Dunning (1999) ''J. Pers. Soc. Psychol.'' 77(6):1121-34. doi:10.1037//0022-3514.77.6.1121.</ref> In a stroke of [[irony]], the original paper showcasing the effect was intrinsically flawed from an {{wpl|autocorrelation}} mistake. Using data generated by uniform noise erroneously supported the same result.<ref name=fix>[https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2022/04/08/the-dunning-kruger-effect-is-autocorrelation/ The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation] by Blair Fix (April 8th, 2022) ''Economics from the Top Down''.</ref>

The proposed effect would occur where people fail to adequately assess their level of competence — or specifically, their ''in''competence — at a task and thus consider themselves ''much more competent than everyone else''. This lack of awareness is attributed to their lower level of competence, which robs them of the ability to critically analyse their performance, leading to a significant overestimation of themselves. In simple words: "people who are too ignorant to know how ignorant they are". When people do not recognize their own mental illness, this is known as "anosognosia"; this is common for people with bipolar disorder or [[schizophrenia]].<ref>[https://www.webmd.com/schizophrenia/what-is-anosognosia What Is Anosognosia?] by Smitha Bhandari (October 20, 2020) ''WebMD''.</ref>

The inverse also applies: the unusually competent people tend to underestimate their ability compared to others; this is known as '''impostor syndrome'''.

While noting the autocorrelation mistake, a 2023 paper further argued that the original work of Dunning and Kruger did not show what was claimed, but instead had only shown that people of all competence levels overestimated their competence; Dunning and Kruger's research had used a small and narrow [[sample size]] of 45 undergraduate students.<ref>[https://theconversation.com/debunking-the-dunning-kruger-effect-the-least-skilled-people-know-how-much-they-dont-know-but-everyone-thinks-they-are-better-than-average-195527 Debunking the Dunning-Kruger effect – the least skilled people know how much they don’t know, but everyone thinks they are better than average] by Eric C. Gaze (May 8, 2023 8.19am EDT) ''The Conversation''.</ref><ref>[https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/numeracy/vol9/iss1/art4/ Random Number Simulations Reveal How Random Noise Affects the Measurements and Graphical Portrayals of Self-Assessed Competency] by Edward Nuhfer et al. (2023) ''Numeracy'' 9(1):4. doi:10.5038/1936-4660.9.1.4.</ref> 

Nonetheless, David Dunning maintains there have been subsequent studies that support the original claims.<ref>[https://www.bps.org.uk/psychologist/dunning-kruger-effect-and-its-discontents The Dunning-Kruger effect and its discontents] by David Dunning (07 March 2022) ''The British Psychological Society''.</ref> In particular, there was a 2021 study of 3500 participants performing logic and grammar tests that concluded there was overconfidence among the worst performers.<ref>[https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01057-0 A rational model of the dunning–kruger effect supports insensitivity to evidence in low performers] By Rachel Jansen et al. (2021) ''Nature Human Behaviour'' '''5''': 756–763. doi:10.1038/s41562-021-01057-0</ref> Dunning concludes that the effect appears largely related to psychological conditions; systemic misconceptions about a task exacerbates the outcome.

The effect found in the Dunning-Kruger study can also be explained by [[Regression to the mean|regression to the mean]].<ref>https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1215&context=numeracy</ref> In simple words, someone who is nearly the worst at a given task might overestimate their talent, but can hardly underestimate it. Even a perfectly rational agent's guess will naturally tend to be above reality as long as there is some uncertainty regarding their score. This means that no matter how many times it is successfully replicated, this study design cannot in principle show that describing the "Dunning-Kruger effect" as a psychological phenomenon is justified.<ref>https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160289620300271</ref> Dunning addresses this in a 2011 paper of his, stating that the argument is "relabeling" the effect at best, and not sufficient in explaining the results at its worst. He concludes that there are methods of estimating this dynamic and that accounting for it has negligible impact on the results.<ref>[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/B9780123855220000056 Chapter five - The Dunning–Kruger Effect: On Being Ignorant of One's Own Ignorance] by David Dunning (2011). ''Advances in Experimental Social Psychology'' '''44''': 247–296. doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-385522-0.00005-6</ref>

A finding that is more well established is that people across the board tend to [[Overconfidence effect|overestimate themselves]].

The principle is illustrated indirectly by the common saying that "I've learned enough about ________ to know what I don't know." The implication is that someone who hasn't learned much about the subject would have no appreciation for how much there is to learn about it, and so might grossly overestimate their level of understanding. This is considered by many people to be a {{wpl|truism||.}}

==The effect==
{{cquote|One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision.|||[[Bertrand Russell]], ''The Triumph of Stupidity''}}

The Dunning-Kruger effect is related to {{wpl|Illusory superiority|''illusory superiority''|,}} where people tend to overestimate their good points in comparison to others around them, while concurrently underestimating their negative points. The effect has been shown by [[experiment]] in several ways, but in this case Dunning and Kruger tested students on a series of criteria such as [[humour]], grammar, and [[logic]], and compared the actual test results with each student's own estimation of their performance.

Those who scored well on these tests were shown, consistently, to underestimate their performance. This can be explained as a form of [[psychological projection]]: those who found the tasks easy (and thus scored highly) mistakenly thought that they would also be easy for others. This is similar to the aforementioned "impostor syndrome" — found notably in graduate students and high-achieving women — whereby high achievers fail to recognize their talents as they think that others ''must'' be equally good.

Those who scored lowest on the test were found to have "grossly overestimated" their scores, thus displaying what became known as the Dunning-Kruger effect. And what about the underachievers who overestimated their performance? In the words of Dunning and Kruger:<ref name=dunning/>
{{quotebox|This overestimation occurs, in part, because people who are unskilled in these domains suffer a dual burden: Not only do these people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it.}}

The original study was focused specifically on ''competence'', as opposed to ''intelligence'' — Dunning and Kruger were more concerned with the [[Empiricism|empirical]], measurable factors of how well a person could perform a task (even "simple" or "stupid" tasks) and that person's perception of how they performed that task, rather than the more nebulous concept of comparative "[[intelligence]]" or "[[education]]". However, the inspiration for the entire study was a desperately under-educated Pittsburgher who possessed badly flawed [[reasoning]] skills ({{sl|Origins|see below}}). The term is still properly meant to describe a disconnect between perceived and empirical ''competence'', rather than [[IQ]] or intelligence.

==A little knowledge can be dangerous==
[[File:Memetic hazard warning.png|right|thumb|A little knowledge of the Dunning-Kruger effect could give you '''impostor syndrome'''!{{fact|joke}}]]
{{cquote|It is not in our human nature to ''imagine'' that we are wrong.|||Kathryn Schulz<ref>''Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error'' by Kathryn Schulz (2010) Ecco. ISBN 0061176052.</ref>}}
{{cquote|Now, think about how much the average person knows about your area of specialty. Not only do they know comparatively little, they likely have no idea how little they know and how much specialized knowledge even exists. Furthermore, most of what they think they know is likely misleading.<BR><BR>
Now realize that you are as ignorant as the average person is in every other area of knowledge in which you are not expert. The Dunning-Kruger effect is not just about dumb people not realizing how dumb they are. It is about basic human psychology and [[cognitive biases]].|||Steven Novella<ref>''The Skeptic's Guide to the Universe'' by Steven Novella (2018), Grand Central Publishing. ISBN 1538760517.</ref>{{rp|49}}}}

The effect can also be summarised by the phrase "a little [[knowledge]] is a dangerous thing."<ref>"[http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/a-little-knowledge-is-a-dangerous-thing.html Phrases.org.uk The meaning and origin of the expression: A little knowledge is a dangerous thing]", ''The Phrase Finder''.</ref> A small amount of knowledge can mislead a person into thinking that they're an expert because this small amount of knowledge isn't a well-known [[fact]].

For a potent example, consider former [[children]]'s TV presenter and "science advocate" Johnny Ball, who in 2009 stunned audiences by [[Global warming denialism|denying the existence of climate change]]. His reasoning was based on the fact that [[water]] vapour as a [[greenhouse gas]] is much more prevalent, potent, and thus much more powerful than carbon dioxide — and because combustion reactions also produce water, it should be water vapour we're worried about, not carbon dioxide.<ref>[http://www.express.co.uk/expressyourself/147328/It-s-not-the-end-of-the-World It's not the end of the World] by Johnny Ball (Dec 21, 2009) ''Daily Express''.</ref> Sound reasoning to an amateur, but anyone minimally qualified in atmospheric [[chemistry]] would tell you that the water isn't a problem because the atmosphere has a ''way'' of getting water to the ground — precipitation, that is, [[rain]], snow, or hail. Thus its concentration (for given temperatures and pressures) remains more or less constant globally.<ref group=note>Granted, there are also mechanisms that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, but those tend to be properties of other things, such as the ecosystem, rather than of the atmosphere itself. Furthermore, whereas water vapor in the atmosphere tends to stay at an equilibrium due to properties of water itself ({{IdEst}} it reaches a maximum level of saturation in the atmosphere, forms into clouds, {{wpl|Coalescence|aggregates further into denser-than-air clusters|,}} and falls as precipitation), the things that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (such as plants performing [[photosynthesis]]) can only absorb so much carbon dioxide at a time and can easily be overwhelmed (especially if humans reduce the absorption capacity through activities such as {{wpl|deforestation||).}}</ref>

Ball's premise is also used by some critics against the [[hydrogen economy]]: because hydrogen vehicles emit water vapour from their exhaust, they are seen to be more damaging to the [[environment]] than petrol-driven vehicles. An ill-informed and unsound argument — hydrogen fuel cell vehicles emit approximately the same amount of water per mile as vehicles using gasoline-powered internal combustion engines.<ref>[http://www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/did_you_know.html Water Emissions from Fuel Cell Vehicles] ''Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy'' (archived from January 27, 2007).</ref> The difference is that while water vapour remains in the atmosphere for only a few days or weeks, and hydrogen gas for about two years, carbon dioxide lingers for more than a century.<ref>[http://www.ucsusa.org/publications/earthwise/fuel-cells-water.html Dialogue: Fuel Cells and Water Vapor] (Winter 2006-2007) ''Earthwise: Union of Concerned Scientists'' 9(1). Archived from April 23, 2011.</ref>

==Origins==
[[File:Dunning kruger.png|thumb|Comparison of actual score vs perceived score. A well-calibrated and honest set of predictions is intended to follow a straight line (i.e., prediction of ability matches the outcome). However, even a dataset of uniform noise gives the appearance of overconfidence.<ref name=fix/> Graphed as a proportion of the over-estimate, those in the lowest quartile were seemingly guilty of the most significant over-estimation.<ref name=dunning/>]]
{{cquote|The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool.|||Touchstone, in ''As You Like It'' by [[William Shakespeare]]}}
Dunning and Kruger properly proved its existence with the 2000 [[Ig Nobel Prize]] winning<ref>[http://improbable.com/ig/winners/#ig2000 The 2000 Ig Nobel Prize Winners] ''Improbable Research''.</ref> paper "Unskilled and Unaware of It",<ref name=dunning/> doubtless at great risk to personal sanity.

They were famously inspired by {{wpl|McArthur Wheeler}}, a Pittsburgh man who attempted to rob a bank while his face was covered in lemon juice.<ref>[https://nypost.com/2010/05/23/why-losers-have-delusions-of-grandeur/ Why losers have delusions of grandeur] (May 23, 2010 | 5:28am) ''New York Post''.</ref> Wheeler had learned that lemon juice could be used as "invisible ink" (that is, the old childhood experiment of making the juice appear when heated); he therefore got the idea that unheated lemon juice would render his facial features unrecognizable or "invisible".<ref>[https://qz.com/986221/what-know-it-alls-dont-know-or-the-illusion-of-competence/ Why a bank robber thought covering himself in lemon juice would help him get away with it] by Kate Fehlhaber (May 19, 2017) ''Quartz''.</ref>

After he was effortlessly caught (as he made no other attempts to conceal himself during the robberies), he was presented with video surveillance footage of him robbing the banks in question, fully recognizable. At this, he expressed apparently sincere surprise and lack of understanding as to why his plan did not work — he was not competent enough to see the logical gaps in his thinking and plan.<ref>[http://mindhacks.com/2010/02/11/the-burglar-with-the-lemon-juice-disguise/ The Burglar With the Lemon Juice Disguise] by Vaughan Bell (February 11, 2010) ''Mind Hacks''.</ref>

The idea that people who don't know that they don't know ("Dunning-Kruger effect" is {{wpl|Double negative|''so'' much less confusing}} than any "know-know" phrase) isn't particularly new. The [[Bertrand Russell]] quote is from the mid-1930s, and even earlier, [[Charles Darwin]], in ''The Descent of Man'' in 1871, stated "[[ignorance]] more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge." Even back in ancient [[Greece]], Plato's ''Apology'' attributed to Socrates the quote at the top, which today is often summed up as, roughly, "the wisest people know that they know nothing."

In his 1996 book ''[[Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot]]'', [[Al Franken]] described the phenomenon of "[[Anti-intellectualism|pseudo-certainty]]", which at the time of writing and onwards, was rampantly being displayed by [[pundit]]s and [[politician]]s such as [[Rush Limbaugh]] and [[Newt Gingrich]], who would use "[[common sense]]" as the basis for their cocky [[PIDOOMA|assertions]]. Franken prefers the term "being a fucking moron."<ref>''Rush Limbaugh Is a Big Fat Idiot and Other Observations'' by Al Franken (Delacorte Press, 1996) ISBN 0-385-31474-4</ref>{{rp|12}}

==Some examples of those whose salary is paid in Dunning-Krugerrands==
{{quote|Those who think they know never learn.|from the [[Tao Te Ching]]}}
{{collist|2|
*Members of [[Answers in Genesis]] and [[CMI]]
*[[Theodore Beale]] (Vox Day), and ''how!''
*[[Lauren Boebert]]
*[[Jack Chick]]
*[[Ray Comfort]] and his washed-up sidekick [[Kirk Cameron]]
*[[Creationists]]
*[[Steven Crowder]]
*[[Flat Earth]]ers
*[[Global warming deniers]]
*[[Adolf Hitler]], particularly as commander of the German military
*[[Alex Jones]]
*[[Charlie Kirk]]
*[[Michael Knowles]]
*[[Marjorie Taylor Greene]]
*[[Matt Walsh]]
*[[Candace Owens]]
*[[Sarah Palin]], don't-cha know!
*[[Racialist]]s
*[[Rush Limbaugh]]
*[[Jordan Peterson]]
*[[Rand Paul]]
*[[Ayn Rand]]
*[[Gene Ray]] with his Twitter handle<ref>[https://twitter.com/Wisest_Human Gene Ray: @Wisest_Human] ''Twitter''.</ref>
*[[Larry Sanger]]; micromanaging experts on [[Citizendium]] in areas he was not qualified for or had knowledge of.
*[[Andrew Schlafly]]; the [[Lenski Affair]], where Schlafly decided that he was both intellectually qualified and ''physically equipped'' to study [[bacteria]] himself.
*[[Ben Shapiro]]
*[[Donald Trump]] and [[Trumpism|his supporters]], bigly
*[[Anti-vaxxers]]
*[[Conspiracy theorist]]s
*[[Engineers and woo|Some engineers]]
*[[Special:MyPage|{{USERNAME}}]]
}}

==See also==
{{collist|2|
*[[Backfire effect]]
*[[Delusions of grandeur]]
*[[Groupthink]] — multiple people feeding each other's delusions
*[[Igon Value Problem]]
*[[Nobel disease]]
*[[Open mind]]
*[[Overconfidence effect]] — a major driver of the Dunning-Kruger effect
*[[Truthiness]]
*[[Ultracrepidarianism]]
*[[Fractal wrongness]] — basically the Dunning-Kruger effect taken to extremes
}}

==External links==
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdnH19KsVVc "The Dunning-Kruger Song", from The Incompetence Opera], presented at the 27<sup>th</sup> First Annual Ig Nobel Prize Ceremony.
*[http://www.realsceptic.com/2013/09/22/need-better-science-education/ What happens] when Dunning-Kruger and [[Poe's Law]] collide.
*[http://www.psmag.com/navigation/health-and-behavior/confident-idiots-92793/ We are all confident idiots.]
*[http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/03/democracies-always-fail.html One of the problems with a Democracy.]
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOLmD_WVY-E Why incompetent people think they're amazing – David Dunning] | TED-Ed
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvVPdyYeaQU John Cleese on stupidity.]

==Notes==
{{reflist|group=note}}

==References==
{{reflist|2|80%}}

{{Cognitive biases}}
[[Category:Anti-intellectualism]]
[[Category:Psychology]]

Categories: Anti-intellectualism, Psychology