John Hogue

{{bronze}}[[File:Roguescholar.jpg|thumb|right|165px|Would you buy a used car from this man?]]{{Psychic}}{{conspiracynav}}
{{cquote|[[Astrology]] is just a [[Pseudoscience|map of the personality]], but [[Deepity|we are more than our ego personality]]. [[Poe's Law|Life is sometimes a train and sometimes a car. Life is sometimes full of free ice cream and next a slap in the face]]. The [[Just asking questions|questions I pose]] through [[meditation]] are [[Not even wrong|"who is driving the car?" "Who is on the train?" "Who eats free ice cream one moment and is hit in the face the next?"]] Who is "this…THIS, [[PRATT|ten-thousand times]]… This?"|||John Hogue in the process of {{wpl|Jumping_the_shark|jumping the shark}}<ref>http://www.hogueprophecy.com/2015/10/hogue-foresaw-and-dated-the-third-intifada-the-tpp-passing-plus-hogue-meets-his-master-and-the-rediscovery-of-ones-lost-in-ocence/</ref>}}

'''John Hogue''' {{lived|1955|}}<ref group="note">Rather than saying he was born in 1955, Hogue rather cringeworthily puts it in his biography that  it was the year that he, "slipped through the vaginal curtains onto life's stage." Truly a poet of our time.</ref> describes himself as a "[[Credentials#Making_it_up|world authority]] on [[Nostradamus]]"<ref name="bio"/> and a "[[Crank|rogue scholar]]".<ref name="bio">{{a|1=http://www.hogueprophecy.com/biography/|2=An Idiot's Autobiography}}. Be warned that it is long, rambling, and conforms to the [[Time Cube#Time Cube Law|Time Cube Law]].</ref><ref name="bullshit">''[[Penn & Teller: Bullshit!]]'', episode 1.04, ''End of the World''</ref> We describe him as [[woo|woo-meister]] and [[bullshit|bullshit artist]]. In a [[stopped clock]] moment of remarkable quality, Hogue had the foresight to title the biography he hosts on his website as ''An Idiot’s Autobiography''. 

Most of his "work" is focused on making future [[prediction]]s based on Nostradamus, [[astrology]], or a mixture of both. He makes a great many predictions in every direction; whenever possible he [[Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy|goes back and revises the ones that didn't pay off]],<ref group="note">See the "[[John_Hogue#Revisionism|Revisionism]]" section of this article.</ref> and—''lo and behold''—[[Improbable things happen|some of his guesses actually stick]].

Even [[Rejected by their own kind|other astrologers]] think Hogue is just making stuff up.<ref>https://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-reviews/R3E7IH9V2BH5YO?ie=UTF8</ref> Then again, astrologers can never agree on ''anything''.  Hogue has managed to garner what seems to be a comparatively small but loyal following; his 2015 book ''Trump for President: Astrological Predictions'' managed to become Amazon.com best-seller in the "prophecies" category, and his other books also seem to sell reasonably well. Some have even gone so far as to suggest he is the [[reincarnation]] of Nostradamus himself!<ref>{{a|1=http://www.near-death.com/reincarnation/research/nostradamus-and-john-hogue.html}}</ref> His status as a [[crank]] is verified by many appearances on [[Coast to Coast AM]].<ref>{{a|1=http://www.coasttocoastam.com/guest/hogue-john/5786}}</ref>

==Scrabble==
{{cquote|[Nostradamus'] writing is muddled enough to be taken [[Shoehorning|any way one wishes]]. His ambiguities have kept the controversy of his prophecies alive, and even enhanced his stature as a seer in the centuries following his death (just as he predicted).|||John Hogue<ref>John Hogue, ''Nostradamus: The Complete Prophecies'' (Rockport, MA: Element, 1997), p. 11.</ref>}}
In an episode of ''[[Penn & Teller: Bullshit!]]'', Hogue guides the viewers through the process by which he arrives at his "predictions"—as it turns out, by playing one-man Scrabble:<ref name="bullshit"/> 

{{quotebox|
'''Penn Jillette:''' We'll play along. This [[Antichrist]]—what do we ''call'' him?<br>'''John Hogue:''' [Consulting his own book] This one is called "Mabus", m-a-b-u-s. There are a couple of ways to [[Shoehorn|decode]] that word. M-a-b-u-s, uuh, reversed, which is a common practice in the 16<sup>th</sup> century, becomes "Subam". If you can then, ''uh,'' always replace one letter with another…<br>'''Penn Jillette:''' Who says you can ''do that!?''<br>'''John Hogue:''' …the "u", the "a"; [[Saddam Hussein|Saddam]].<br>'''Penn Jillette:''' ...as in Saddam Hussein. But what's this about ''moving letters around?''<br>'''[[James Randi]]:''' The rule of dropping a letter out or adding a letter is something ''invented by the Nostradamians'', because if you add or subtract a letter, or add ''and'' subtract a letter to any word, you can make it into almost anything you want, if you move it around enough.<br>'''Penn Jillette:''' …which is ''exactly'' what this whackjob is doing! Ladies and gentlemen, this is ''the very definition'' of bullshit.}}

In addition to replacing the "u" with an "a", he fails to mention how he obviously "reversed" the "b" into a "d", never mind the fact that "Saddam" is spelled with two "d"'s. The bill thus lands on one letter reversal, two letter replacements, and letter added outright. Hogue continues;

{{quotebox|'''John Hogue:''' And it's quite possible that "Mabus" is not only a Middle-eastern potentate, but could be our own president. M-a-b-u-s, "Mabus"; you can reverse the "m" into a "w", you have b-u-s with a silent [[Latin]] "h". "Mabush", or [[Dubya|W. Bush]].}}

Though it is established that he can just replace letters as he sees fit, he decides to flip the "m" into a "w" {{wpl|Mario & Wario|in an effort for his blind followers to fall under Wario's wicked control}}. The concept of a "silent "h" in Latin" is not only a gross oversimplification,<ref>{{a|1=http://www.mythfolklore.net/medieval_latin/grammar/silenth.htm}}</ref> it is also a [[red herring]] by Hogue, since he himself just spelled out the letters as "b-u-s"—with the addition of a "silent h", which he then instantly proceeds to ''say out loud'' in "bus'''H'''". A "silent letter" does not mean: a letter you ''don't write'' yet somehow ''get to pronounce''. A "silent letter" means: a letter you ''write'' but ''don't pronounce''. 

Thus, Hogue's mystifying technique goes as follows;
#Inserting a brand new letter into a word where it never belonged in the first place.
#''Pronouncing'' said new letter ''out loud'', allowing it to ''alter the phonetics'' for said word.
#Referring back to said insertion as having been "silent". 

Finally, he tops it off by very clearly jumping back and forth between Latin and English rules for pronunciation; he claims the "silent "h"" belongs in the word in the first place in reference to Latin grammar rules, yet he uses that same Latin grammar rule to add the "h" that is required to get the full phonetic picture for the ''English'' (not Latin) pronunciation of the word in question  ("Bush"). Besides, what happened to the "a"? Is it also "silent"?

Actually, this isn't "one-man Scrabble" after all, since Scrabble has actual rules; you can't just make shit up on the fly.

The game is quite easy to play. We note that if "Mabus" is reversed, the "s" is dropped at the beginning, an "a" is added at the end, and the "u" is replaced with an "o", "[[Barack Obama|Obama]]" is clearly revealed.

==Revisionism==
{{cquote|I've read just about everything that John Hogue has written, particularly this book; [Holds up book] ''Nostradamus and the Millennium''—very attractive book. On page 124, he names the Antichrist. And the Antichrist he names as [[Ruhollah Khomeini|Khomeni, the Ayatollah Khomeini]]. Shortly after that the Ayatollah died, so he didn't fulfil his duty to be the Antichrist, ''aaah'', but that doesn't stop John Hogue! He doesn't pause for a second! He writes a ''second edition!'' [Pulls out identical looking book] Looks the same… just ''about'' the same, because when we look in here—oh! Gee, the Ayatollah isn't in here anymore! Who has suddenly become the Antichrist? Saddam Hussein. You ''can't rewrite your books after their predictions don't happen!'' But John Hogue apparently thinks that's kosher. Apparently, ''he'' thinks you can do that. [Shakes head in disapproval] I don't think so.|||[[James Randi]]<ref name="bullshit"/>}}

Hogue has an annoying tendency to ''retroactively'' change his predictions 
if
 when they conclusively fail to deliver, beyond all shadow of a doubt. In the 1987 edition of ''Nostradamus and the Millennium'' he names [[Ruhollah Khomeini]] as the Antichrist. Khomeini inconveniently died in 1989, so the 1991 second edition names [[Saddam Hussein]] as the Antichrist with no mention of Khomeini.<ref name="bullshit"/> Saddam has also inconsiderately died since, so in 2008 he named [[Osama bin Laden]] as the Antichrist—who has since also snuffed it. The current runner-up is [[Obama]];<ref>{{a|1=http://www.hogueprophecy.com/2015/08/new-book-release-the-prophecies-of-the-last-blood-moon-and-john-hogue-didnt-write-a-book-saying-putin-is-the-antichrist/}}</ref> judging from Hogue's previous predictions, Obama is now cursed and should very, very likely die in just a few years.

==Geography skills==
{{cquote|'''John Hogue:''' "[[Vague|At 45 degrees latitude, the sky will burn. Fire approaches the great new city.]]". Latitude 45 degrees—the only new city since Nostradamus' time that you could call great and new and vast, is the city that rests, uh, between 40 degrees and 41 degrees latitude—which is Manhattan, in New York. ''Now'', that's a little off.<ref group="note">Yeah, ''no shit'' it's "a little off". It's in [[Canada]]!</ref><br>'''James Randi:''' ...he's {{wpl|45th_parallel_north|way up in Canada someplace}}! When [Nostradamus] said "the new city", he was referring to {{wpl|Naples}}. He refers to it ''several times'' in his writings, and he ''makes it clear'' that he's talking about Naples. ''Not'' {{wpl|New_York_City|New York City}}.|||''[[Penn & Teller: Bullshit!]]''<ref name="bullshit"/>}}

Who needs maps when you can [[shoehorn]]?

==Presidential "predictions"==
In his 1998 book ''1000 for 2000 Startling Predictions for the New Millennium from Prophets Ancient and Modern'' he makes a great many predictions—among others, the results of presidential elections, and states that he's been right about this since 1968 (when he was 13).<ref name="skepticreport">{{a|1=http://www.skepticreport.com/sr/?p=345|2=John Hogue: Really bad prophet}}</ref>

Well, let's see how often he's right.

{{sbs|title=1|Prediction|Reality}}

{{sbs
|726: [[Bill Clinton|President Clinton]] will complete his final term, despite all attempts to unseat him. (1993)
|This is true, but nothing extraordinary about that prediction.}}

{{sbs
|727: By 2050, historians and public alike will view President Clinton as one of the three most important presidents of the 20<sup>th</sup> century (the other two being [[Franklin Delano Roosevelt]] and [[Richard Nixon]]). People in the mid-twenty-first century will view Clinton’s sexual scandals with less cultural intolerance. They will focus more on his initiatives in foreign and economic policy that paved the way for a new era in international unity in the coming fifty years. (1992)
|This claim is unverifiable until 2050 (when no one will remember this clown or his predictions) but one doesn't need obscure medieval writings to see that views about [[sex]] are changing. We don't really see a "new era in international unity" coming, but who knows…}}

{{sbs
|728: Arizona Republican Senator [[John McCain]] has the best chance to defeat Democrat [[Al Gore]] in 2000. However, the [[Republican party]] will suffer defeat once again, because it may choose another George Bush and a Dole as its candidates – to be exact, George W. Bush and a woman vice-presidential candidate like Elizabeth Dole or Senator Kaye Baily Hutchinson of [[Texas]]. (1998)
|[[Dubya|Dubya]] chose [[Dick Cheney|Darth Vader]] as running mate, and 
cheated
 won the elections. [[John McCain]] did run for the presidency eventually, and lost to [[Obama]] (not [[Al Gore]]).}}

{{sbs
|729: The Republican party will be a casualty of millennial fever. The right-wing fundamentalists in that party will split it apart over religious extremist views. (1994)
|What is "millennial fever" supposed to be? [[Y2K]]? So far, the [[GOP]] hasn't split, and the closest it is to spitting was [[Donald Trump|The Donald]] making vague threats about running as an independent (he eventually won as a Republican).}}

{{sbs
|730: The next president will die in office, most likely in his first term. (1994)
|Just flat-out wrong.}}

{{sbs
|731: The next president will not be assassinated. He will succumb to health problems, perhaps heart trouble, or he will die in some air accident. (1994)
|Nope (even though many perhaps [[Dubya|hoped for it]]). Most people die due to health problems. Even presidents. [[Abraham Lincoln]], [[JFK]], [[James Garfield]], and [[William McKinley]] were assassinated, with [[JFK]] being the only one not over a century ago. [[William Henry Harrison]], [[Zachary Taylor]], [[Warren G. Harding]], and [[Franklin Roosevelt]] died due to health problems.}}

{{sbs
|732: It pains me to say it, but I believe that the president will be Al Gore. Although he may suffer an untimely death while in office, I can say that he will be remembered as a visionary leader, compared by some to President Kennedy. Like Kennedy, he will launch a national race – not the Space Race, but a race to make America ecologically responsible before it is too late. (1992)
|[[Al Gore]] was [[2000 U.S. presidential election|almost president]]. Does that count? He's also still alive. And while he's sometimes put forward as a visionary leader, it's [[An Inconvenient Truth|not due to his political work]], and the only race he started is the race to spread [[FUD]] surrounding [[Global warming denialism|global warming]].}}

{{sbs
|733: President Gore will have a woman as his vice president. (1992)
|He wasn't president at all.  [[Joe Lieberman]] was Gore's running mate, so even to that extent it was wrong.}}

{{sbs
|734: A woman will be president much sooner than anyone expects. She will not be elected, but will become president upon the death of the president elected in 2000. (1994)
|Nope. Although it was [[Sarah Palin|everyone's fear in 2008]] that something like this could happen.}}

{{sbs
|735: [[Hillary Clinton]] will be a president of the United States before 2010. (1998)
|[[2008 U.S. presidential election|If at first you don't succeed]], [[2016 Democratic Party presidential nomination|try again]] ([[2016 United States Presidential Election|again she lost]]).}}

Note that these were ''all'' the predictions he made. No [[cherry picking]]! Still, there are people who claim that "he predicted the last 12 presidents correctly".<ref>{{a|1=http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message3050809/pg1?disclaimer=1}}</ref>

==Notes==
<references group="note"/>

==References==
{{reflist|2}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Hogue, John}}
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