Climategate

{{silver}}{{globalwarmingnav}}
{{cquote|Yet when it comes to coverage of global warming, we are trapped in the logic of a guerrilla insurgency. The climate scientists have to be right 100 percent of the time, or their 0.01 percent error becomes Glaciergate, and they are frauds. By contrast, the deniers only have to be right 0.01 percent of the time for their narrative — See! The global warming story is falling apart! — to be reinforced by the media. It doesn't matter that their alternative theories are based on demonstrably false claims, as they are with all the leading "thinkers" in this movement.|||[[Johann Hari]]<ref>[http://www.thenation.com/article/climategate-claptrap-ii Climategate Claptrap], Hari in ''The Nation''</ref>}}

"'''Climategate'''" is the most common term that the [[media]] and blogosphere gave to a relatively effective [[manufactroversy]] (in the [[US]], at least) that followed the November 2009 release of thousands of illegally-obtained e-mails from the [http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ Climatic Research Unit] (CRU) at the University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. [[Global warming denialism |Global-warming denialists]] immediately pounced on the story, claiming that much of the data supporting the existence of [[global warming]] were fabricated.  The media quoted many of the e-mails<ref>You can see what apparently were the original e-mails [http://web.archive.org/web/20091127175947/http://eastangliaemails.com/ here.]</ref> [[quote mining |out of context]]<ref>For a [[Toronto Sun|clear example]], see [http://www.torontosun.com/comment/columnists/lorrie_goldstein/2009/11/29/11967916-sun.html here.]</ref> to make it seem as if there was huge disagreement among climatologists and that they'd faked or hidden their data. 

By 2011, '''nine''' separate investigations by the [[British]] government and by multiple independent [[ethics]] committees had been completed. None found any [[evidence]] of fraud or manipulation of data. The CRU data was also independently [[Reproducibility |replicated]].<ref>[http://www.skepticalscience.com/Climategate-CRU-emails-hacked.htm Skeptical Science] provides links to the documents produced by the ethics investigations and committees. (See also [http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/08/22/300821/nsf-inspector-general-investigation-michael-mann/#more-300821 Climate Progress] for a copy of the latest investigation by the NSF.)</ref><ref>[http://www.grist.org/climate-skeptics/2011-02-28-what-we-have-and-havent-learned-from-climategate What We Have and Haven't Learned from Climategate], Grist
</ref>

In fact, the [[reality |real story]] — insomuch that there even ''was'' a story — was that a big [[scientific]] project caused people to curse, disagree, and sigh. Who knew?

==Trick or treat?==
Much of the Climategate furor was over the use of the word "trick," especially when Phil Jones of the CRU wrote: 
{{quotebox|I've just completed [[Michael Mann|Mike]]’s ''Nature'' trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (i.e. from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith's to hide the decline.<ref>[https://climateaudit.org/2009/11/20/mike%E2%80%99s-nature-trick/ Mike’s Nature trick]. climateaudit.org, 20 November 2009.</ref>}} 
While the [[denialist]]s see this as some sort of [[conspiracy theory|conspiracy]],<ref>The blogger that broke the story, [[James Delingpole]], specifically calls this quote [http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100017393/climategate-the-final-nail-in-the-coffin-of-anthropogenic-global-warming/ "manipulation of evidence."]</ref> it is a [[mathematical]] way of dealing with a problem (a [[mathematical]] "trick") and reflects scientists interacting with each other (the "decline" also refers to [[Dendrochronology|tree ring density]], not global temperatures).<ref>A detailed explanation can be found in [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nnVQ2fROOg this video.]</ref> The quote is used out of context to alter its original meaning.

The "trick" in question is quite simple and is the result of how to go about [[time]]-averaging (e.g., "five year moving average") graphs and [[statistic]]al trends.<ref>[http://www.skepticalscience.com/Mikes-Nature-trick-hide-the-decline.htm Clearing up misconceptions regarding "hide the decline"], Skeptical Science</ref><ref>[http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/the-cru-hack/ CRU Hack], Real Climate</ref> In order to make a moving [[average]], it's sometimes necessary to pad out the data series beyond its end point with model [[statistical]] data to get the smoothed out average to run up to the edge of the time period. So, if a data series ends in 1980, then 4-5 years of model data, which is projected from the local statistical trends (rather than some form of [[PIDOOMA]] method) needs to be incorporated to get a reliable moving average to end in 1980, rather than 5 years previously. 

The problem faced by Michael Mann and co. back in their 1998 paper — and what Phil Jones was talking about in his email — was that with the proxy data they used there is a well-documented divergence of some tree ring density (specifically, proxies selected from high latitudes) from the recorded temperature and other proxies exists starting around 1960. The time-averaged temperature began to decline towards 1980 due to these known inaccuracies as well as some statistical outliers.<ref>[http://www.skepticalscience.com/Tree-ring-proxies-divergence-problem.htm Tree-ring proxies and the divergence problem], Skeptical Science</ref> Mann's solution, the "''[[Nature (journal)|Nature]]'' trick" was to augment this proxy data with real, and reliable, instrumental data in order to reconstruct the end series of the time averaging. There was no manipulation of actual recorded temperature data, only how the reconstructed proxy data was processed to more closely match the accurate data.

Sounds pretty sneaky, eh? In fact, the "hide the decline" issue was so ''cleverly'' hidden that it was discussed by several authors and glaringly published in IPCC AR4 Chapter 6 onwards.<ref>[http://www.uea.ac.uk/mac/comm/media/press/2009/nov/CRUupdate CRU November press releases]</ref>  The denialists also called for the [[Release the data|data to be released]], despite the fact that 95% of said data was already available.

===Further trickery===
While most of the squawking in the denialist camp has been about using "tricks" to "hide the decline," they pulled out some other quality quote mines as well:
*"The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't." Climatologist Kevin Trenberth is referring to the fact that his climate models couldn't totally reconcile the overall global warming already occurring with surface temperature measurements. He sneakily covered this up by ''publishing a paper on it'' in a [[scientific journal]].<ref>Kevin E. Trenberth. [https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CC8QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wired.com%2Fimages_blogs%2Fthreatlevel%2F2009%2F11%2Fenergydiagnostics09final.pdf&ei=Q_YTUsjuG4GiyAHP4oHABw&usg=AFQjCNGjQdQgP8bJkhaSEQGgyas8fPRM9g&sig2=uemf6iZGbqOqpnY2jMlRmQ&bvm=bv.50952593,d.aWc An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth’s global energy.] ''Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability'' 2009, 1:19–27. (Further commentary [http://www.skepticalscience.com/Kevin-Trenberth-travesty-cant-account-for-the-lack-of-warming.htm here.])</ref>
*Criticism of [[Patrick Michaels]] was mined to make it appear as if the scientists were conspiring to have his Ph.D. pulled (though Ben Santer did write in one e-mail that he would be "tempted to beat the crap out of" him<ref group=note>Actually, not that uncommon of a statement.</ref>). Another quote about "redefining the [[peer review|peer-reviewed]] literature" regarding Michaels and [[Ross McKitrick]]'s 2004 paper purporting to demonstrate the "urban heat island effect" is another common mining job. This was a [[Snark|sarcastic comment]] about keeping that paper out of the IPCC report; the paper in question happened to be published in a third-tier journal and reached its conclusion by mixing up radians and degrees in the statistical analysis.
*Quote mines about [[Yamal controversy|Yamal Peninsula tree ring proxy data]].
*"No warming since 1995." This was actually ''not'' in the e-mails but was a quote mine from a subsequent interview given by Phil Jones in which he said that his calculations were just short of [[statistical significance]] for the {{wpl|HadCRUT}} dataset from the period of 1995-2009. He does, however, note that the long-term warming trend is significant.<ref>[http://www.skepticalscience.com/Phil-Jones-says-no-global-warming-since-1995.htm Phil Jones says "No global warming since 1995"], Skeptical Science</ref> This is obviously not the same thing as "global warming is a [[hoax]]!" This is usually chucked in with Climategate quotes for bonus [[deceit]] points.

==Content==
RealClimate, one of the leading blogs on climate change, describes the content of the e-mails:

{{quotebox|More interesting is ''what is not contained'' in the emails. There is no evidence of any [[New World Order|worldwide conspiracy]], no mention of [[George Soros]] nefariously funding climate research, no grand plan to ‘get rid of the {{wpl|Medieval Warm Period|MWP,'}} no admission that global warming is a hoax, no evidence of the falsifying of data, and no 'marching orders' from our [[socialist]]/[[communist]]/[[vegetarian]] overlords. The truly [[paranoid]] will put this down to the [[hacking|hacker]]s also being in on the plot though.<ref>[http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/the-cru-hack/ The CRU Hack], Real Climate</ref>}}

==Reactions==
===From the scientific community===
In the light of the controversy, the American Meteorological Society and the American Association for the Advancement of Science reaffirmed its support for the existence of anthropogenic global warming.<ref>[http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/climatechangeclarify.html Impact of CRU Hacking on the AMS Statement on Climate Change], AMS</ref><ref>[http://www.aaas.org/news/aaas-reaffirms-statements-climate-change-and-integrity AAAS Reaffirms Statements on Climate Change and Integrity], AAAS</ref> The editors of ''Nature'' did not think that the hacking required a review of papers published in the journal: "It is ''Nature'''s policy to investigate such matters if there are substantive reasons for concern, but nothing we have seen so far in the e-mails qualifies."<ref>[http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v462/n7273/full/462545a.html Climatologists under pressure], ''Nature''</ref> Jones temporarily stepped down as head of the CRU until investigations were finished. 

The harshest criticism in any of the investigations claimed that the scientists were slow and occasionally non-compliant in filling Freedom of Information Act requests (mostly in relation to [[Steve McIntyre]] spamming them with FOIA requests) and one lamented that they ideally should have worked more closely with statisticians.<ref>[http://www.skepticalscience.com/Freedom-of-Information-FOI-requests-climate-scientists.htm FOI requests and climate scientists], Skeptical Science</ref> What an astounding [[cover-up]]!

===From the climate change denialists===
{{cquote|A [[miracle]] has happened.|||An early commenter on [[Climate Audit]].<ref>[http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/41644 Climate emails: were they really hacked or just sitting in cyberspace?], ''The Guardian'' (The Norfolk police ultimately [http://www.norfolk.police.uk/newsevents/newsstories/2012/july/ueadatabreachinvestigation.aspx confirmed a "sophisticated" breach], but couldn't find the perpetrator.)</ref> (Sorry for the disappointment.)}}
In a memorable editorial in the ''[[Daily Telegraph|Telegraph]]'', [[Christopher Booker]], author of ''The Real Global Warming Disaster''<ref>The full title is (take a deep breath) [http://www.amazon.co.uk/Real-Global-Warming-Disaster-Scientific/dp/1441110526 ''The Real Global Warming Disaster: Is the Obsession with "Climate Change" Turning Out to be the Most Costly Scientific Blunder in History?'']</ref> called Climategate "[[Dunning-Kruger effect|the greatest scientific scandal of our age]]."<ref>[http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/6679082/Climate-change-this-is-the-worst-scientific-scandal-of-our-generation.html "This is the Worst Scientific Scandal of Our Generation"], ''The Telegraph''</ref> Predictably, [[Glenn Beck]] lambasted the e-mails.<ref>[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROaLU8g8VA4 Glenn Beck on Climategate]</ref> [[Anthony Watts]], among many other deniers, quoted writer [[George Monbiot]] saying that some of the climate scientists should resign<ref>[http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/23/monbiot-issues-an-unprecedented-apology/ "Monbiot Issues an Unprecedented Apology"], LOLWUWT</ref> but failed to mention that he also said, "But do these revelations justify the [[pseudoskeptic|sceptics]]’ claims that this is 'the final nail in the coffin' of global warming theory? Not at all. They damage the credibility of three or four scientists. They raise questions about the integrity of one or perhaps two out of several hundred lines of evidence. To bury manmade climate change, a far wider conspiracy would have to be revealed"<ref>[http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2009/11/23/the-knights-carbonic/ "The Knights Carbonic"], George Monbiot</ref> (Monbiot later retracted his call for Jones to resign).<ref>[https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cif-green/2010/jul/07/russell-inquiry-i-was-wrong The 'climategate' inquiry at last vindicates Phil Jones – and so must I] by George Monbiot (7 Jul 2010 15.59 EDT) ''The Guardian''.</ref> Everyone's favourite airhead, [[Sarah Palin]], wrote a long [[Facebook]] post urging [[Barack Obama]] to boycott the Copenhagen conference on global warming, because (with full [[irony]]) "Policy should be based on [[sound science]], not [[snake oil]]."<ref>[http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=188540473434 Sarah Palin Facebook note], get ready to lose brain cells.</ref>

===From the intelligent design community===
In a not-so-bizarre twist, [[Denyse O'Leary]] managed to try to link "climategate" to the "conspiracy" of [[Darwinism]], writing "Our reason for watching this brief is rather the extent to which scientists may have collaborated to prevent a full and fair evaluation of the evidence.  If they do it with climate change, they might also do it with Darwinism, [[cancer]] research, and any number of other areas."<ref>[http://www.uncommondescent.com/climate-change/climategate-money-laundering/ Climategate money laundering], [[Uncommon Descent]]</ref>  The [[Intelligent design|IDosphere's ]] conspiracy accusations make you wonder what they think of the [[Wedge Document]].<ref>[http://sensuouscurmudgeon.wordpress.com/2009/12/04/discovery-institute-climategate-crescendo/ The Discovery Institute's Climategate Crescendo], The Sensuous Curmudgeon</ref>

==Impact and fallout==
Cross-national comparison of [[news]] media content reveals that climate denialism is treated far more seriously in the British and American press than elsewhere.<ref>[http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2011/nov/11/climate-change-scienceofclimatechange Is Climate Scepticism a Largely Anglo-Saxon Phenomenon?], ''The Guardian''</ref>  

A number of newspapers issued retractions about insinuations or outright accusations of scientific fraud after investigations cleared the scientists.<ref>[http://climateprogress.org/2010/06/26/newsweek-retract-climategate-sharon-begley/ Newsweek, newspapers retract Climategate claims, but damage still done], Climate Progress</ref> Naturally, Climategate is still proof of the massive scientific conspiracy among the denialist crowd. The incident (along with other issues that have been taking a forefront in the media as a more pressing concern, like the ongoing [[banking crisis|financial crisis]]), helped sway public opinion toward denial. A 2010 Gallup poll showed public split about evenly between attributing warming to man-made and natural causes and 10% replied warming was not happening at all, while 36% were unsure.<ref>[http://www.gallup.com/poll/126560/americans-global-warming-concerns-continue-drop.aspx Americans Global Warming Concerns Continue to Drop], Gallup</ref> A 2011 Rasmussen poll reported 69% of those surveyed said it was likely that scientists "falsified" data (though the poll's wording has been criticized for being [[falsification|vague]]).<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/environment_energy/69_say_it_s_likely_scientists_have_falsified_global_warming_research 2011 Rasmussen Poll] (and [http://mediamatters.org/research/201108080030 Media Matters criticism of the poll])</ref>

The controversy has also given a boost to the [[Religious Right]], which seeks to insert denialism into school texts along with [[creationism]]. Creationist groups like the [[Discovery Institute]] have voiced their support for these plans.<ref>[http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/04/science/earth/04climate.html?ref=global-home Darwin Foes Add Warming to Targets], ''The New York Times''</ref><ref>[http://skepticalteacher.wordpress.com/2010/06/11/climate-science-deniers-copy-paste-creationist-tactics/ Climate Deniers Copy-Paste Creationist Tactics]</ref>  So thanks, global warming "skeptics," you've opened the floodgates for more creationist stupidity.

Climategate also led to a number of mini-manufactroversies, especially those mentioned in the leaked e-mails (listed below), and helped resuscitate quite a few [[PRATT|points refuted a thousand times]].

==Climategate 2.0==
In November of 2011, hackers released a number of new e-mails held back from the original batch of Climategate e-mails, mixed in with some of the first batch, possibly to boost their numbers.<ref>[http://motherjones.com/environment/2011/11/climategate-20-will-media-do-its-job-time Climategate 2.0: Will the Media Do Its Job This Time?] ''Mother Jones''</ref> As was to be expected, these were widely quote mined throughout the denialist [[echo chamber]], further "proving" the existence of a vast [[Global_warming#Warmist|warmist]] scientific conspiracy. Many of the comments (again taken out of context) were in reference to an early draft of the 2007 IPCC report, which the denialists neglected to mention.<ref>[http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=second-batch-of-stolen-climategate-messages-emerges Second Batch of Stolen "Climategate" Messages Emerges], ''Scientific American</ref> However, much of the [[mainstream media]] neglected to cover the second release, with it breaking headline status in the United States, but making no appearance in the news, even among [[right-wing]] denialist circles, in (for instance) [[Australia]].

==See also==
*[[CDC whistleblower controversy]]
*[[Global warming conspiracy theory]]
*[[Leakegate]]
*[[Denialgate]]
*[[Soon and Baliunas controversy]]
*[[Wegman Report]]
*[[One single proof]]

==External links==
*[http://gilest.ro/blog/lots-of-smoke-hardly-any-gun-do-climatologists-falsify-data/ Lots of Smoke, Hardly Any Gun: Do Climatologists Falsify Data?], GGLab blog (Explains how and why temperature data is adjusted)
*[http://www.factcheck.org/2009/12/climategate/ FactCheck on Climategate]
*Climate Denial Crock of the Week: [http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2011/04/in_tribute_to_a_commenterall_you_ever_ne.php Unwinding "hide the decline"], [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwPnz3AJ0qQ&feature=channel_video_title Climate Scientist Beat Down!]
*[http://www.skepticalscience.com/The-question-that-skeptics-dont-want-to-ask-about-Climategate.html The questions that skeptics don't want to ask about Climategate], Skeptical Science
*[http://motherjones.com/environment/2011/04/history-of-climategate Climategate: What really happened], Kate Sheppard
*[http://theconversation.edu.au/there-is-a-real-climategate-out-there-4428 There is a Real Climategate Out There], The Conversation
*[[Potholer54]] [http://www.lukesci.com/2011/11/28/the-climategate-2-emails-debunked-a-video/ debunks Climategate 2.0]
*[http://carbonfixated.com/newtongate-the-final-nail-in-the-coffin-of-renaissance-and-enlightenment-thinking/ Newtongate: The Final Nail in the Coffin of Renaissance and Enlightenment Thinking], Carbon Fixated (A detailed examination of [[Isaac Newton]]'s private correspondences show that calculus is a lie perpetrated by deceitful "scientists.")

==Notes==
{{reflist|group=note}}

==References==
{{reflist|2|80%}}

[[Category:Denialism]]
[[Category:Pseudoscience]]
[[Category:Global warming]]
[[Category:Conspiracy theories]]
[[Category:Gates]]
[[Category:Global warming denialists]]

Categories: Denialism, Pseudoscience, Global warming, Conspiracy theories, Gates, Global warming denialists