Crazification factor

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'''Crazification factor''' (alternatively known as the "'''Keyes constant'''"<ref name="keyesconstant">[http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/The-312/April-2011/The-Alan-Keyes-Constant/ The Alan Keyes Constant], ''Chicago Magazine'', 21 April 2011.</ref>) is a neologism coined in 2005 by blogger and screenwriter John Rogers<ref name=kungfu/> to refer to the portion of the electorate comprising the nuttiest of the [[wingnut|wingnuts]] and the batshit crazy, or at least the most diehard partisans.

In popular usage, it is an application of the [[Texas sharpshooter fallacy]], in which you call attention only to data supporting your proposition: you will find endless examples of people online crying "Crazification factor!" when 20-30% of people do something &mdash; anything &mdash; the speaker doesn't like, or are even polled as holding an opinion they don't like.<ref name="keyesconstant"/><ref>[http://www.johnmcgrath.ca/?p=19 No, Rob Ford’s re-election isn’t certain. It’s not even likely.], John Michael McGrath, blog, December 1, 2012</ref>

Rogers later stressed that the phrase was a joke, not some serious statistical proposition.<ref>https://twitter.com/jonrog1/status/390299744561410049</ref>

==Origin of the term==
Rogers was writing of the 2004 [[US Senate|Senate]] election in [[Illinois]]:
{{cquote|[[Barack Obama|Obama]] vs. [[Alan Keyes]]. Keyes was from [[Carpetbagger|out of state]], so you can eliminate any established political base; both candidates were black, so you can factor out [[racism]]; and Keyes was plainly, obviously, completely crazy. Batshit crazy. Head-trauma crazy. But 27% of the population of Illinois voted for him.<ref>And it wasn't fully representative of die-hard Republicans: [http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/IL/S/01/ 40% of conservatives voted for Obama, while Keyes managed to get 24% from Independents.]</ref> They put party identification, personal prejudice, whatever ahead of rational judgement. Hell, even like 5% of [[Democrat]]s voted for him. That's crazy behaviour. I think you have to assume a 27% crazification factor in any population.<ref name=kungfu>[http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com/2005/10/lunch-discussions-145-crazification.html Lunch Discussions #145: The Crazification Factor], Kung Fu Monkey, 7 October 2005.</ref>}}

Another factor in Obama's favor at the time that Rogers didn't mention is that the ''original'' [[Republican]] candidate, Jack Ryan,<ref>No relation to the character from several of Tom Clancy's novels.</ref> had been forced to suspend his candidacy after his [[divorce]] and custody records were released to the press, revealing that he had taken his former wife, actress Jeri Ryan,<ref>Best known for playing Seven of Nine on ''[[Star Trek]]: Voyager''. Yeah. Coincidentally, she also worked with John Rogers on his TV series ''Leverage''.</ref> to various [[sex]] clubs (including, in at least one case, a [[BDSM|bondage]] club) and tried to have her perform sex acts on him out in the open.<ref>[https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-0406220247jun22-story.html Ryan file a bombshell: ex-wife alleges GOP candidate took her to sex clubs], ''Chicago Tribune'', 22 June 2004.</ref> Keyes was the GOP's last-minute replacement on the ticket after the sordid details of Ryan's divorce came out. So not only was it a normal candidate running against a clearly crazy opponent, but the crazy guy also had the baggage of the last guy's sex scandal following him, and had been drafted into the campaign as a hastily-drawn Plan B candidate with little time to prepare.<ref>[http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/08/08/senate.illinois.keyes/ Keyes challenges Obama for Illinois Senate seat], CNN, 9 August 2004.</ref>
<!--See talk page. Please don't just add examples of 25-30% doing something stupid unless the reference literally says "crazification factor" -->

==See also==
*[[Herd mentality]]

==References==
{{reflist|2}}

[[Category:Neologisms]]
[[Category:Political terms]]

Categories: Neologisms, Political terms