trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k huggingface dataset:
Growth mindset for better sex
by agentydragon — 2020-04-28T08:49:45.079Z

Cross-posted from my website.

TLDR: Fixed mindset and fear of inadequacy hinder learning. Competence gives you confidence - where you’re competent and confident, you don’t have fear of inadequacy. And if you don’t learn fast because you’re afraid of feedback (because you’re afraid of inadequacy), you’ll not get better, leaving you relatively incompetent and afraid of inadequacy. 🗘

A thing about sex recently clicked from several sources:

Being high and talking with a certain sergal,
plus reading a Facebook thing by Duncan,
plus listening to John Vervaecke’s series Awakening from the Meaning Crisis. (One of the episodes talks about fixed/growth mindset, but I can’t find it right now. You should go watch the whole series anyway, it’s awesome.)

During sex, I have a background fear of “what if I can’t bring them to orgasm”. I want my partner to enjoy it as well, and I want to reciprocate, and I would feel bad if they bring me to orgasm but I can’t bring them to orgasm. So, I hurry and try hard to bring them to orgasm, because I am not confident of my sexual skill. Orgasm is cool, but the sex before orgasm is also cool. Sex that doesn’t feel hurried and where you can take your time and stretch out pleasure. But, so far, in like 90% of the sex I’ve had so far I had the thought “aaaa sex aaaa gotta perform and be good enough and hurry and give them an orgasm aaaa”, somewhere in the background. In that kind of environment, you don’t get a lot of learning done.

Say you’re learning how to play the violin. We know lots about learning. CFAR’s handbook (which I think is still not publicly readable) has a lot of useful stuff on it. Things that make learning work well include:

You need to learn the basics first. You don’t start by playing Vivaldi’s Four Seasons. You start by playing one note until you get that one note at least 90% right: holding the violin correctly, not having the bow screech, not touching the strings that shouldn’t ring, holding the tone for as long as required without it fluctuating (unless you want it to).
You need feedback, and the faster the feedback loop is, the better. If you play the Four Seasons and by Summer you start holding the bow wrong, your violin tutor will immediately stop you and

...
A speculative incentive design: self-determined price commitments as a way of averting monopoly
by mako yass — 2020-04-28T07:44:52.440Z

[Epistemic status: A half-baked idea that I only came up with yesterday, but am nonetheless kind of excited by and I expect something like it will end up fitting in somewhere someday.]

background

Today, there is a lurking leech of a strategy where platform owners keep their margin high until the moment they need to fight off a competitor, then once a competitor emerges, they can easily lower it so that the competitor, with their scale disadvantage, can't win an audience, and is driven out of business. Tech is illegible enough that regulators couldn't reliably see through whatever lie is floated to explain the sudden price decrease, the evil can't truly be policed. The real damage done here is that the hero, the ascendant competitor, would only have been punished for trying, and I say "would", for this reason no hero actually steps up, most of this story doesn't play out, there is no competitor, so there is no price decrease.
There are many obvious examples of platforms we all rely on, which you and I know wouldn't cost anything at this point if competence, economy and generosity were well rewarded, whose maintainers are instead still taking monstrous cuts from all of the commerce that takes place on them. The gaming platform Steam, Uber Eats, Amazon Books, and so many that people outside of their industry don't even hear about, the hiring platforms, the licensed tools.

the thing:

These bad things couldn't happen if, before scaling up a technological platform with highly self-determined prices, platform owners are required to commit to all of their prices, many years in advance, and stick to them.
If a competitor arises who has reason to believe they can beat the committed prices, they can invest the money and enter the market, save in the confidence that the incumbent will not swoop down and take it from them once they're ready to launch.
For the first mover to avoid this, they must commit to prices that progressively decrease, in step with their well informed, insider analysis of the sectors expected propensity to create cheaper alternatives; and if they do it well, this obviates the need for anyone to actually do the redundant work of creating the cheaper alternatives! A company that produces the most convincing possible estimate of possible price decreases from fair competition over time will usually not face com...
Emergency Central Planning
by jefftk — 2020-04-28T00:50:02.586Z

Central
planning generally hasn't worked out very well for countries, and
essentially the whole world has moved over to

markets. So
why are there strong calls for governments to run disaster response,
instead of leaving that to markets? For example, governments
directly:

distributing food and water after a hurricane or
earthquake.

building
out and running new covid-19 hospital facilities, instead of
agreeing to fund treatment.

negotiating with foreign factories to produce more masks and
arranging importation, instead of announcing they'll pay some elevated
price to anyone who can supply them.

Normally, everyone is the best authority on what they need. We have a
wide range of requirements and preferences, and competition means
there are high rewards for resolving mismatches between what people
want and what's available. People are also normally able to project
their needs out into the future, because the world changes relatively
slowly.

Once a disaster strikes, both of these invert. Basic needs become
much more important, and these vary a lot less between people: we need
food, water, shelter. In the current crisis we're very short on N95
masks, and while doctors probably do have opinions on Ambu vs
Teleflex, mostly we just need a lot more of them, quickly.
Additionally, people are dealing with something where they don't have
much experience, and aren't going to be as good at planning around.

Then you can potentially get the upside of having professionals whose
job it is to work full time on preparation, figuring out what
disasters are likely and how we're going to want to respond. This is
not something the US has been handling well, but perhaps when this is
over it will be easier to communicate the need for funding this kind
of "we probably don't need it, but if we do it's super important"
work.

I don't think this is the only way to handle disasters: if law and
custom allow prices to freely move in response to changes in what's
available and what people are buying, then price signals are still a
very strong tool. Both market and centralized approaches have
downsides in crisis situations, with markets magnifying existing
inequality, and centralization magnifying existing government
incompetence. But people all suddenly wanting the same few things
they didn't anticipate they would want dramatically levels the playing
...
Market-shaping approaches to accelerate COVID-19 response: a role for option-based guarantees?
by DerekF — 2020-04-27T22:43:26.034Z

This is a policy brief directed at decision makers in the UK government, with a view to accelerating production of tests, drugs and vaccines for COVID-19; but it could be adapted for a wide variety of countries, products and crises. Critical feedback is very welcome.

Thanks to Sam Hilton, Tim Colbourn and anonymous others for input on previous drafts.

Summary

Effectively tackling COVID-19 will require rapidly scaling up the production of diagnostic tests, pharmaceutical treatments and vaccines. In each case, preparations for large-scale manufacturing, such as building factories, are typically delayed until the product is proven safe and effective. This makes sense from a commercial perspective, but incurs great costs in terms of lives lost and damage to the economy.

There are several potential solutions, but the most promising appears to be “option-based guarantees”. In essence, the government commits to paying a proportion of the manufacturer’s preparation costs should the product turn out not to be viable. (If the product is viable, it can be sold as normal.) This reduces the risk to the company while maintaining an incentive to produce a high-quality product quickly and at scale.

The problem

The UK, like most of the world, faces an urgent need for increased COVID-19 testing capacity. As more people become infected and recover, large-scale screening for past exposure (antibody tests) will be necessary, but the shortage is especially acute for tests of active infection (“swab” tests). The government recognises this need and has

set a target

of 100,000 tests per day – a combined figure for antibody and swab tests – by the end of April. While this increase is welcome, safely bringing the country out of lockdown could require far more widespread swab testing, potentially as many as 10 million tests a day. Post-lockdown policy is still being developed so this may become the strategy within a few weeks. The UK should prepare now by deciding how market forces can be leveraged to rapidly scale up testing.

A long-term solution to the crisis will involve effective pharmaceutical treatments or vaccines (ideally both). Promising candidates have been identified, but most will take at least several months to complete Phase 3 studies – perhaps less if

“human challenge trials”

are permitted. Since many prod...
The Best Virtual Worlds for "Hanging Out"
by Raemon — 2020-04-27T21:54:46.400Z

UPDATES Sept 5 2020

Online Town is now Gather Town. They have continued to ship new features and improve their service in the past few months.
There are several apps similar to Gather Town now. My favorite is Topia. It is less stable / performant than Gather Town, but also much prettier and easier to build maps on. Other options include here.fm and cozyroom.xyz, and highfidelity.com. Each have different strengths and weaknesses. I hope to do another article comparing them someday.
I've found Minecraft worked fine as a social activity, but surprisingly didn't hold my interest as a world – ironically every time I went to a shared Minecraft world I just... sortof "played Minecraft" rather than actually hanging out the way I'd envisioned. I have done a few specific "Minecraft hikes" which went well as a one-off thing though.

Related:

What are the best online tools for meetups and meetings?
Partying over the Internet: Technological Aspects

The Problem With Zoom™

In the wake of coronavirus, many people have turned to Zoom, Skype, or Jitsi to maintain social ties. But I personally find it a bit awkward to do a video call when I don't have anything in particular to talk about. In real life, lulls in conversation could be filled with eating, or talking a walk and appreciating the scenery. In a videocall, there's either awkward silence, or I start using facebook or something and then get distracted.

Zoom calls also work less well for large parties. If you want the feeling of wandering through a house, listening in on various conversations and joining in, or spontaneously playing a simple game, I've found video calls a poor substitute. Zoom works best for smaller conversations with clear goals, or very structured conversations. (Seder worked well because it was "turn based")

What works much better IMO is some kind of low-key game going on in the background – something just complicated enough to let me fidget with it, without becoming the Main Activity which distracts from actually talking to friends.

There are various low-key games that may work for people. But there's a particular quality of Minecraft, and similar world-sims, that feel less like we're playing a game, and more like we're just hanging out in a world.

What are the best tools for that?

This post began as a response to "What are the Best Online Tools For Meetups and Meetings". It turned out to be pretty ext...
[Link] COVID-19 causing deadly blood clots in younger people
by orthonormal — 2020-04-27T21:02:32.945Z

Great rundown at https://siderea.dreamwidth.org/1617381.html

Summary: plenty of evidence that COVID-19 is causing blood clots in younger people, which leads to noticeable increases in strokes and cardiac arrests, which may not be counted in the official statistics as of now.
Welcome to Philosophy Discussion [Edit With Your Details]
by kungfuhobbit — 2020-04-27T20:56:43.830Z

(The following are our suggestions for what kind of information is best to include in the welcome post of your group, feel free to replace them with whatever you think is best)

What kind of events does your group usually run? What does it usually do?

How frequently does your group organize events or meet?

Who would be a good fit for you group?

Should they have any particular skills or have done some specific background reading?
What physical trigger-action plans did you implement?
by Mati_Roy — 2020-04-27T20:10:08.826Z

Trigger-Action Plan, as opposed to Trigger-Action Pattern means the mental algorithm was voluntarily implemented.

Social TAP means the trigger originates from a physical event. For example "opening a door" is a physical trigger, whereas "starting a discussion" is a social one and "confusion" is a cognitive one.

For more info on TAPs, see: What are Trigger-Action Plans (TAPs)?

Related questions:

What cognitive trigger-action-plans did you implement?

What social trigger-action plans did you implement?

Main motivation for asking: To document my TAPs
What social trigger-action plans did you implement?
by Mati_Roy — 2020-04-27T20:08:01.147Z

Trigger-Action Plan, as opposed to Trigger-Action Pattern means the mental algorithm was voluntarily implemented.

Social TAP means the trigger originates from a social interaction. For example "starting a discussion" is a social trigger, whereas "opening a door" is a physical one and "confusion" is a cognitive one.

For more info on TAPs, see: What are Trigger-Action Plans (TAPs)?

Related questions:

What cognitive trigger-action-plans did you implement?

What physical trigger-action plans did you implement?

Main motivation for asking: To document my TAPs
What cognitive trigger-action plans did you implement?
by Mati_Roy — 2020-04-27T19:58:21.808Z

Trigger-Action Plan, as opposed to Trigger-Action Pattern means the mental algorithm was voluntarily implemented.

Cognitive TAP means the trigger originates in the brain. For example "confusion" is a cognitive trigger, whereas "opening a door" is a physical one and "starting a discussion" is a social one.

For more info on TAPs, see: What are Trigger-Action Plans (TAPs)?

Related questions:

What social trigger-action plans did you implement?

What physical trigger-action plans did you implement?

Main motivation for asking: To document my TAPs
Training Regime Day 23: TAPs 2
by Mark Xu — 2020-04-27T17:37:15.439Z

Introduction

N. K. Jemisin:

Seasons will reduce the world to such miserly dreams.

When I read this, my first thought was "just like adulthood."

Children have dreams. When I was little, I wanted to be a nuclear physicist. I didn't really know what that meant, but I wanted to be one. Probably not for good reasons, but I still wanted - that much I remember.

Adults often don't have dreams. They live their daily lives and most of them don't want anything. The charitable interpretation is that they have already gotten most of what they want. The uncharitable interpretation...

Learned helplessness happens when one is repeatedly subject to adverse stimuli beyond your control. What happens to someone when they want things for an entire childhood and they don't get most of them? What happens to a person when they only ever reach their small dreams?

Adulthood reduces humans to such miserly dreams.

Sometimes, I call CFAR a giant neon sign that says "HEY, HAVE YOU CONSIDERED SOLVING YOUR PROBLEMS?" Because that was one of the primary benefits for me; I felt like I was given permission to try and fix all the things that bothered me, even when so many other people didn't seem to care.

I'm personally giving you permission to want things and work to get them - permission to not give up on your dreams. I give you this permission even if your dreams are immense. I especially give you this permission if your dreams are impossible.

TAP for Dreams

Everyone carries around a vision better world - a dream of how they would remake society, if they were given the power. Everyone has a giant pile of flexes and grievances and wishes - the infinite many things that are not-quite-right with our current world.

Sometimes there are large (may 1000 curses fall upon Moloch), but sometimes they're just tiny wishes (why is all paint not whiteboard paint?). Magnitude matters less than existence.

Everyone has this vision, but it's often not accessible. Often times, there's pieces of the world that fail their vision and people don't realize.

1. Trigger: Flex against the current state of the world

* For me, this often manifests as irritation/frustration/violated expectation

2. Action: Notice what you're flexing against and think of ways to fix it

* For me, this often involves thinking about purchasing an object that solves your prob...
A Brief Update on Updates
by Slimepriestess — 2020-04-27T17:30:02.288Z

I have a lot of essays currently in my pipeline and a lot more things I want to talk about, however, I’ve realized that my self-imposed weekly update schedule was negatively impacting the quality of those posts. I’d rather not just right a bunch of useless material so I can say I’ve written something, so I’m going to be stopping that and only updating when I actually feel like I have something good to say. This will hopefully mean better if more sporadic content. It will also probably mean that sometimes content comes in rapid bursts as I finish going through research material and suddenly have a lot to write about. Sideways in Hyperspace will be the exception to this, I will still be maintaining an update schedule for that, but it will be reduced in frequency from weekly updates to biweekly updates. This will give me more time to write and edit and hopefully produce something with fewer errors and poor writing. The next chapter of SiH will be posted this Sunday, and then every other Sunday there will be an update.

I currently have four essay series in the pipeline:

The Death Series – Where I talk about Terror Management Theory, Becker, and how death interfaces with human cognition and society, along with how to overcome the fear of life, annihilation, and disempowerment, and how to gain and maintain agency in the face of the madness of the universe. I have probably three or four more essays to go before this series is completed, but it’s currently the furthest along.

The Truth Series – Where I go back through a history of rationality and attempt to distill down the essence in as short a format as I can manage, and building off that history in order to develop a high powered set of practices for those interested in world-saving. This essay series is maybe half-finished and I’m not sure how long it will be in the end.

The Extinction Series – Where I actually talk about X-Risk, the end of the world, and the threats humanity is facing. I’m the least far along on this series and it currently only contains one essay.

Those three series will be compiled afterward into what I’m currently calling The Eschatologist’s Handbook: A Guide to the End of the World.

The final essay series I’m working on is the Confessions of a Transhumanist series, which also currently has only one essay. This will discuss my personal views on things like politics, justice, death, morality, and s...
Helping Lily Make Dinner
by jefftk — 2020-04-27T02:10:07.550Z

Our house has a dinner rotation, with each of the six adults typically
cooking once a week. Last week Lily (6y) asked if she could take a
turn, and I offered to help her. Before I let her sign up I talked
her through what this would entail: enough food for eight people, two
of them vegan, with at least one protein, starch, and vegetable. She
described what she was thinking of cooking, I pointed out issues, she
tweaked it. She eventually ended up with rice, beans, cheese, sliced
tomatoes with garlic, fresh spinach, and avocado sauce.

When she went to sign up she was sad to see that all the slots were
full several days out, but wrote her initial on the next open day.

When I came downstairs from work on the day she was going to cook, she
was very excited to start right away. She wanted to start with the
avocado sauce, but I described how the rice and beans were going to
need some time on the stove and how we should start with them instead.
I would have preferred to leave this entirely up to her, but if dinner
ended up being late that would be kind of annoying for our
housemates.

Lily measured out the water for the rice and
asked me to put it on the stove. She wanted to put the rice in right
away, but I described how it tastes much better if you bring the water
to a boil first.

Next we went down to the basement and got a #10 can of black beans.
Normally we would use smaller cans, but we've been buying from the
commercial food supply chain. She wasn't able to turn the can opener,
so I did it for her.

I suggested we cook some onions to put in the beans, which she was ok
with as long as I cut them up, since she didn't want to be using the
sharp knife. I sliced some onions and put them on low heat with oil.

She wanted to start the avocado sauce again, and now I agreed it was
time. After picking an avocado and asking me to cut it in half, she
scraped it out into a bowl. I think she remembered our Au Pair, Erika,
making it, because I have no idea what to put in an avocado sauce.
She put in water, lime juice, and salt, and then asked me to blend
it. She told me it was ready, but I suggested she taste it first,
after which she wanted a bit more salt.

For the cheese she asked me to get out the mozzarella and the grater,
and she grated a small plateful.

For the tomatoes she picked some out of the fridge, washed them, and
cut them...