trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k huggingface dataset:
Problems in evolutionary psychology 
by Kaj_Sotala — 2010-08-13T18:57:40.454Z

Note: The primary target of the post is not professional, academic evolutionary psychology. Rather, I am primarily cautioning amateurs (such as LW regulars) about some of the caveats involved in (armchair) evpsych and noting the rigor required for good theories. While the post does also serve as a warning to be cautious about sloppy research (or sloppy science journalism) that doesn't seem to be taking these issues into account, I do believe that most of the researchers doing serious evpsych research are quite aware of these issues.

Evolutionary theories get mentioned a lot on this site, and I frequently feel that they are given far more weight than would be warranted. In particular, evolutionary theories about sex differences seem to get mentioned and appealed to as if they had an iron-cast certainty. People also don't hesitate to make up their own evolutionary psychological explanations. To counterbalance this, I present a list of evolutionary psychology-related problems, divided into four rough categories.
Problems in hypothesis generation
Rationalization bias. We know that human minds are very prone to first deciding on a desired outcome, then coming up with a plausible-sounding story of why it must be so. In general, our minds have difficulty noticing faulty reasoning if it leads to the right conclusion. It's easy and tempting to come up with an ad-hoc evolutionary explanation for any behavior, regardless of whether or not it actually has any biological roots.
Over-attributing meaning. Humans also have a strong tendency to attribute meaning to random chance. We might easily come up with explanations that are unnecessarily complex, and try to make everything into an evolved adaptation. For instance, humans tend to avoid thinking about unpleasant thoughts about themselves. A contrived evpsych explanation might be that this is evolved self-deception: by not acknowledging our own faults, it makes it easier for us to deceive others about them. But mental unpleasantness tends to be correlated with harmful experiences: we avoid situations where we'd be afraid, and fear is correlated with danger. It could just as well be that the mechanism for avoiding mental unpleasantness evolved from the mechanism for avoiding physical unpleasantness, and we avoid thinking unpleasant thoughts of ourselves for the same reason why we avoid poking our fingers at hot stoves. (Exampl...
Taking Ideas Seriously
by Will_Newsome — 2010-08-13T16:50:29.769Z

I, the author, no longer endorse this post.

Abstrummary: I describe a central technique of epistemic rationality that bears directly on instrumental rationality, and that I do not believe has been explicitly discussed on Less Wrong before. The technnique is rather simple: it is the practice of taking ideas seriously. I also present the rather simple metaphor of an 'interconnected web of belief nodes' (like a Bayesian network) to describe what it means to take an idea seriously: it is to update a belief and then accurately and completely propagate that belief update through the entire web of beliefs in which it is embedded. I then give a few examples of ideas to take seriously, followed by reasons to take ideas seriously and what bad things happens if you don't (or society doesn't). I end with a few questions for Less Wrong.

Eliezer Yudkowsky and Michael Vassar are two rationalists who have something of an aura of formadability about them. This is especially true of Michael Vassar in live conversation, where he's allowed to jump around from concept to concept without being penalized for not having a strong thesis. Eliezer did something similar in his writing by creating a foundation of reason upon which he could build new concepts without having to start explaining everything anew every time. Michael and Eliezer know a lot of stuff, and are able to make connections between the things that they know; seeing which nodes of knowledge are relevant to their beliefs or decision, or if that fails, knowing which algorithm they should use to figure out which nodes of knowledge are likely to be relevant. They have all the standard Less Wrong rationality tools too, of course, and a fair amount of heuristics and dispositions that haven't been covered on Less Wrong. But I believe it is this aspect of their rationality, the coherent and cohesive and carefully balanced web of knowledge and belief nodes, that causes people to perceive them as formidable rationalists, of a kind not to be disagreed with lightly.

The common trait of Michael and Eliezer and all top tier rationalists is their drive to really consider the implications and relationships of their beliefs. It's something like a failure to compartmentalize; it's what has led them to developing their specific webs of knowledge, instead of developing one web of bel...
How the abstraction shield works
by KatjaGrace — 2010-08-13T11:00:45.000Z

All kinds of psychological distance make things seem less important, presumably because they usually are. So it’s better for bad things to seem distant and good things to seem close.

Do we only modify importance in response to distance, or do we change our perception of distance in order to manipulate our perception of importance? This article suggests the latter is true: people view things they don’t want to be guilty of as further back in time:

Germans (but not Canadians) judged the Holocaust to be more subjectively remote in time when they read only about German-perpetrated atrocities than when this threat was mitigated. Greater subjective distance predicted lower collective guilt, which, in turn, predicted less willingness to make amends (Study 1). Distancing under threat was more pronounced among defensive Germans who felt unjustly blamed by other nations (Study 2). In Study 3, the authors examined the causal role of subjective time. Nondefensive Germans induced to view the Holocaust as closer reported more collective guilt and willingness to compensate. In contrast, defensive Germans reported less collective guilt after the closeness induction. Taken together, the studies demonstrate that how past wrongs are psychologically situated in time can play a powerful role in people’s present-day reactions to them.

That defensive Germans thought the Holocaust was earliest than either the innocent Canadians, or the more guilty and more guilt accepting Germans implies that the effect is probably not related to how bad the guilt is, but rather how much a person would like to avoid it.

Psychological distance also alters whether we think in near or far mode and our thinking mode alters our perception of distance. So if we want to feel distant from bad things we could benefit from thinking about them more abstractly and good things more concretely (as abstraction triggers far mode and concreteness near mode). Do we do this?

Yes. Euphemisms are usually abstract references to bad things, and it is often rude not to use them. We certainly try to think of death abstractly, in terms of higher meanings rather than the messy nature of the event. At funerals we hide the body and talk about values. Admissions and apologies are often made abstractly, e.g. ‘I made a mistake’ rather than ‘I shouldn’t have spent my afternoons having sex with Eli...
An introduction to decision theory
by  — 2010-08-13T09:09:49.347Z

This is part 1 of a sequence to be titled “Introduction to decision theory”.

Less Wrong collects together fascinating insights into a wide range of fields. If you understood everything in all of the blog posts, then I suspect you'd be in quite a small minority. However, a lot of readers probably do understand a lot of it. Then, there are the rest of us: The people who would love to be able to understand it but fall short. From my personal experience, I suspect that there are an especially large number of people who fall into that category when it comes to the topic of decision theory.

Decision theory underlies much of the discussion on Less Wrong and, despite buckets of helpful posts, I still spend a lot of my time scratching my head when I read, for example, Gary Drescher's comments on Timeless Decision Theory. At it's core this is probably because, despite reading a lot of decision theory posts, I'm not even 100% sure what causal decision theory or evidential decision theory is. Which is to say, I don't understand the basics. I think that Less Wrong could do with a sequence that introduces the relevant decision theory from the ground up and ends with an explanation of Timeless Decision Theory (and Updateless Decision Theory). I'm going to try to write that sequence.

What is a decision theory?

In the interests of starting right from the start, I want to talk about what a decision theory is. A decision theory is a formalised system for analysing possible decisions and picking from amongst them. Normative decision theory, which this sequence will focus on, is about how we should make decisions. Descriptive decision theory is about how we do make decisions.

Decision theories involves looking at the possible outcomes of a decision. Each outcome is given a utility value, expressing how desirable that outcome is. Each outcome is also assigned a probability. The expected utility of taking an action is equal to the sum of the utilities of each possible outcome multiplied by the probability of that outcome occuring. To put it another way, you add together the utilities of each of the possible outcomes but these are weighted by the probability so that if an outcome is less likely, the value of that outcome is taken into account to a lesser extent.

Before this gets too complicated, let's look at an example:

Let's say you are deciding whether t...
Decision theory question: Alpha and omega play paper scissor rock
by PlaidX — 2010-08-12T20:55:09.753Z

Edit: Actually nevermind, this is just counterfactual mugging. Deleting post.

We have two superintelligent rational entities, call them alpha and omega, and they have access to each other's source code. They're playing one round of paper scissor rock. The winner gives the loser five dollars, or nothing if they tie. Additionally, you win $100 in bonus money from the bank if your opponent chooses scissors.

My question is, what would they do? If it was ordinary paper scissor rock, it seems fairly clear they can't do better than picking randomly, given that they're equally matched. But what do they do here? Is there in fact a right answer, or does it depend on the peculiarities of how they were programmed?
What a reduction of "could" could look like
by cousin_it — 2010-08-12T17:41:33.677Z

By requests from Blueberry and jimrandomh, here's an expanded repost of my comment which was itself a repost of my email sent to decision-theory-workshop.

(Wait, I gotta take a breath now.)

A note on credit: I can only claim priority for the specific formalization offered here, which builds on Vladimir Nesov's idea of "ambient control", which builds on Wei Dai's idea of UDT, which builds on Eliezer's idea of TDT. I really, really hope to not offend anyone.

(Whew!)

Imagine a purely deterministic world containing a purely deterministic agent. To make it more precise, agent() is a Python function that returns an integer encoding an action, and world() is a Python function that calls agent() and returns the resulting utility value. The source code of both world() and agent() is accessible to agent(), so there's absolutely no uncertainty involved anywhere. Now we want to write an implementation of agent() that would "force" world() to return as high a value as possible, for a variety of different worlds and without foreknowledge of what world() looks like. So this framing of decision theory makes a subprogram try to "control" the output of a bigger program it's embedded in.

For example, here's Newcomb's Problem:

def world():

box1 = 1000

box2 = (agent() == 2) ? 0 : 1000000

return box2 + ((agent() == 2) ? box1 : 0)

A possible algorithm for agent() may go as follows. Look for machine-checkable mathematical proofs, up to a specified max length, of theorems of the form "agent()==A implies world()==U" for varying values of A and U. Then, after searching for some time, take the biggest found value of U and return the corresponding A. For example, in Newcomb's Problem above there are easy theorems, derivable even without looking at the source code of agent(), that agent()==2 implies world()==1000 and agent()==1 implies world()==1000000.

The reason this algorithm works is very weird, so you might want to read the following more than once. Even though most of the theorems proved by the agent are based on false premises (because it is obviously logically contradictory for agent() to return a value other than the one it actually returns), the one specific theorem that leads to maximum U must turn out to be correct, because the agent makes its premise true by outputting A. In other words, an agent implemented like that cannot derive a contradiction from t...
Humor isn’t norm evasion
by KatjaGrace — 2010-08-12T17:21:17.000Z

Robin adds the recent theory that humor arises from benign norm violations to his Homo Hypocritus model:

The Homo Hypocritus (i.e., man the sly rule bender) hypothesis I’ve been exploring lately is that humans evolved to appear to follow norms, while covertly coordinating to violate norms when mutually advantageous. A dramatic example of this seems to be the sheer joy and release we feel when we together accept particular norm violations. Apparently much “humor” is exactly this sort of joy:

[The paper:]The benign-violation [= humor] hypothesis suggests that three conditions are jointly necessary and sufficient for eliciting humor: A situation must be appraised as a [norm] violation, a situation must be appraised as benign, and these two appraisals must occur simultaneously.will be amused. Those who do not simultaneously see both interpretations will not be amused.

In five experimental studies, … we found that benign moral violations tend to elicit laughter (Study 1), behavioral displays of amusement (Study 2), and mixed emotions of amusement and disgust (Studies 3–5). Moral violations are amusing when another norm suggests that the behavior is acceptable (Studies 2 and 3), when one is weakly committed to the violated norm (Study 4), or when one feels psychologically distant from the violation (Study 5). …

We investigated the benign-violation hypothesis in the domain of moral violations. The hypothesis, however, appears to explain humor across a range of domains, including tickling, teasing, slapstick, and puns. (more;HT)

[Robin:] Laughing at the same humor helps us coordinate with close associates on what norms we expect to violate together (and when and how). This may be why it is more important to us that close associates share our sense of humor, than our food or clothing tastes, and why humor tastes vary so much from group to group.

I disagree with the theory and with Robin’s take on it.

Benign social norm violations are often not funny:

Yesterday I drove home drunk, but there was almost nobody out that late anyway.

Some people tell small lies in job interviews.

You got his name wrong, but I don’t think he noticed

Things are often funny without being norm violations:

People we don’t sympathize with falling over, being fat, being ugly, making mistakes, having stupid beliefs

People trying to gain status we think they don’t deserve and fa

...
Should I believe what the SIAI claims?
by XiXiDu — 2010-08-12T14:33:49.617Z

Major update here.

The state of affairs regarding the SIAI and its underlying rationale and rules of operation are insufficiently clear.

Most of the arguments involve a few propositions and the use of probability and utility calculations to legitimate action. Here much is uncertain to an extent that I'm not able to judge any nested probability estimations. Even if you tell me, where is the data on which you base those estimations?

There seems to be an highly complicated framework of estimations to support and reinforce each other. I'm not sure how you call this in English, but in German I'd call that a castle in the air.

I know that what I'm saying may simply be due to a lack of knowledge and education, that is why I am inquiring about it. How many of you, who currently support the SIAI, are able to analyse the reasoning that led you to support the SIAI in the first place, or at least substantiate your estimations with other kinds of evidence than a coherent internal logic?

I can follow much of the reasoning and arguments on this site. But I'm currently unable to judge their overall credence. Are the conclusions justified? Is the coherent framework build around the SIAI based on firm ground? There seems to be no critical inspection or examination by a third party. There is no peer review. Yet people are willing to donate considerable amounts of money.

I'm concerned that, although consistently so, the SIAI and its supporters are updating on fictional evidence. This post is meant to inquire about the foundations of your basic premises. Are you creating models to treat subsequent models or are your propositions based on fact?

An example here is the use of the Many-worlds interpretation. Itself a logical implication, can it be used to make further inferences and estimations without additional evidence? MWI might be the only consistent non-magic interpretation of quantum mechanics. The problem here is that such conclusions are, I believe, widely considered not to be enough to base further speculations and estimations on. Isn't that similar to what you are doing when speculating about the possibility of superhuman AI and its consequences? What I'm trying to say here is that if the cornerstone of your argumentation, if one of your basic tenets is the likelihood of superhuman AI, although a valid speculation given what we know about reality, you are already in over y...
What should I have for dinner? (A case study in decision making)
by bentarm — 2010-08-12T13:29:19.270Z

Everyone knows that eating fatty foods is bad for you, that high cholesterol causes heart disease and that we should all do some more exercise so that we can lose weight. How do I know that everyone knows this? Well, for one thing, this government website tells me so:

We all know too much fat is bad for us. But we don't always know where it's lurking. It seems to be in so many of the things we like, so it's sometimes difficult to know how to cut down.

...kids need to do at least 60 minutes of physical activity that gets their heart beating faster than usual. And they need to do it every day to burn off calories and prevent them storing up excess fat in the body which can lead to cancer, type 2 diabetes and heart disease.

See, it's right there in black and white. We all know too much fat is bad for us. Except... there are a lot of people who don't agree. Gary Taubes is one of them, His book, Good Calories Bad Calories (The Diet Delusion in the UK and Australia), sets out the case against what he calls the Dietary Fat Hypothesis for obesity and heart disease, and proposes instead the Carbohydrate Hypothesis: that both obesity and heart disease are caused by excessive consumption of refined carbohydrates, rather than dietary fat.

Taubes is very convincing. He explains how people have consistently recommended low-carb diets for weight-loss for the past 150 years. He explains how scientists roundly ignored studies that contradicted the link between high cholesterol and coronary disease. There are details of the mechanism by which eating refined carbohydrate affects insulin production, leading to obesity. He gives a plausible narrative for how the Dietary Fat Hypothesis came to be accepted scientific wisdom despite not actually being true (or supported by the majority of the evidence). He explains how studies of low-fat diets simply ignored overall mortality rates, reporting only deaths from heart disease, and how one study wasn't published because 'we weren't happy with the way it turned out'. All in all, the book is very convincing.

I expect a relatively large percentage of people on LW are already aware of this. Searching the LW archives for 'Taubes' gives several, mostly positive, references to his work (Eliezer seems to be convinced "Dietary scientists ignoring their own experimental evidence have killed millions and condemned hundreds of millions more to obes...
Singularity Summit 2010 Less Wrong Meetup
by Mycroft65536 — 2010-08-11T22:53:25.960Z

It's been a whole year (almost) and the Singularity Summit is upon us again. This time, instead of having a Meetup for only a few hours, we're going to have a continuous meetup lasting the entire length of the Summit. We will have a room adjacent to the lobby with a sign proclaiming "Less Wrong Meetup." We can discuss the topics brought up in the Summit, exploring their implications, and just having fun with a large concentration of rationalists in an intellectually stimulating environment.
Discrimination: less is more
by KatjaGrace — 2010-08-10T18:32:34.000Z

‘Discrimination’ can mean all sorts of things. One of the main ones, and what it will mean in this post, is differential treatment of people from different groups, due to real or imagined differences in average group features. Discrimination is a problem because the many people who don’t have the supposed average features of a group they are part of are misconstrued as having them, and offered inappropriate treatment and opportunities as a result. For instance a capable and trustworthy middle aged man may miss out on a babysitting job for which he is truly the best candidate because the parents take his demographic information as reason not to trust him with their children.

This means that ‘discrimination’ is really a misnomer; this problem is due to lack of discrimination. In particular lack of discrimination between members of the groups. For instance if everyone could instantly discriminate between women with different levels of engineering ability, generalizations would be useless, assuming engineering ability is really the issue of interest to the discriminators. Generalizations aren’t even offensive when enough discrimination is possible. Telling a 6’5” Asian man that he’s probably short since he’s Asian is an ineffective and confusing insult. Even if observers can’t discriminate perfectly, more ability to discriminate means less misrepresentation. For instance a test score doesn’t perfectly determine people’s abilities at engineering, but it is much more accurate than judging by their gender. This is assuming the generalizations have some degree of accuracy, if they are arbitrary it doesn’t make much difference whether you use false generalizations of larger groups or smaller ones.

The usual solution suggested for ‘discrimination’ is for everyone to forget about groups and act only on any specific evidence they have about individuals. Implicitly this advice is to expect everyone to have the average characteristics of the whole population except where individual evidence is available. Notice that generalizing over a larger group like this should increase the misrepresentation of people, and thus their inappropriate treatment. Recall that that was the original problem with discrimination.

If the parents mentioned earlier were undiscriminating they would b...