trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k huggingface dataset:
Research interests I don't currently have time to develop alone
by Stuart_Armstrong — 2013-10-16T10:31:27.055Z

EDIT: added the "rights of parents" and "simulation hypothesis" research interests.

I've started a lot of research projects and have a lot of research interests that I don't currently have time to develop on my own. So I'm putting the research interests together on this page, and anyone can let me know if they're interested in doing any joint projects on these topics. This can range from coauthoring, to simply having a conversation about these and seeing where that goes.

The possible research topics are:

Reduced impact AI (this is one I'm certainly going to be returning to, once I have the time).

The Fermi paradox and universal colonisation.

Anthropic decision theory (extending it to include quantum mechanics).

How to divide the gains from trade/to negotiate/to achieve "fairness"/to avoid blackmail.

Oracle AI and the (non-)differences between tool AIs and agents

General assessments of predictions and experts (including counterfactual resiliency).

The future of surveillance.

The risks of singleton world governments and mass-em worlds.

Anthropic shadows for multiple risks.

The potential limitations of the Turing test as an accurate general intelligence test.

Extending the orthogonality thesis to realistic AI designs.

Infinite ethics.

The cake or death problem for value loading: whether it's fully solved or whether similar problems remain.

The problems with total utilitarianism.

The problems with CEV (and potential solutions).

Whether AIXI would end protecting itself or not.

The rights of parents versus others in determining the genetic modifications of their children (and the efficiency of the markets in these kinds of modifications).

Exploring the consequences of the simulation hypothesis, as Joshua Fox did.
Bookmarklet to Hide Nested Comments
by witzvo — 2013-10-16T05:55:12.029Z

When reading comments on Less Wrong, I sometimes find myself reading reply after reply deep into a discussion when I really shouldn't be. If I had stopped and thought, I would have said, let's move on to the next thread. Similarly, I've seen comments that pose an interesting question or raise an interesting point get derailed because the first response to that post nitpicks on some issue and reply after reply delve into that. By the time I get to another child of the original comment that addresses its main point, I've exhausted myself.

This is nobody's fault but my own: the nesting mechanism is sound, the default behavior is reasonable, and the show/hide features are right there, but I don't find myself using them as much as I should.

As an experiment to see if I can improve my behavior I created this bookmarklet: Hide Nested Comments

EDIT: The link isn't working right now. It should link to: javascript:var%20cl=$$('div.comment');for(var%20i=0;i<cl.length;i++){a=cl[i];if(a.parentNode.parentNode.id!='comments')hidecomment(a.id.replace(/^[^_]*_/,''),a)};void(0);

but it doesn't. Sorry. Presumably I'm in violation of some security policy by attempting to make a bookmarklet in a post. If you trust me, you can create a bookmark with that as the destination yourself, but the directions below about dragging won't work.

What it does is pretty simple: it hides all comments on a post that aren't top level comments. This way, the default is that I don't see all the followups unless I decide that the subject matter is important enough that I want to wade into it. It makes it more effort to dig into subjects that interest me, but (hopefully, at least) I'll get less distracted where I shouldn't and a few more clicks won't kill me.

The biggest drawback I'm aware of right now is that it means that I'll start missing interesting content that's buried under uninteresting content (arguably I'm missing most of those anyway). A fancier version might, for example, label the hidden posts with the maximum buried karma.

Anyway, it's an experiment. Feel free to try it yourself and report back, or tell me why you think it's a terrible idea.

How do I try it?

One way is to turn on your browser's bookmark toolbar and drag the above link onto that toolbar. Click on it on the toolbar to use it. If you don't like the results, just refresh. Another way, in Firefox, is to right-click (control...
Meetup : Durham/RTLW HPMoR discussion, ch. 90-93
by therufs — 2013-10-15T22:46:01.879Z

Discussion article for the meetup : Durham/RTLW HPMoR discussion, ch. 90-93

WHEN:
19 October 2013 12:00:00PM (-0400)

WHERE:
726 Rigsbee Avenue, Durham NC, 27701

Join us at Fullsteam at noon this Saturday for discussion of HPMoR chapters 90-93 and metadiscussion of what we ought to do with our Saturday afternoons after we run out of HPMoR to read.

12:00 gather at Fullsteam -- bring coffee and/or food

12:30 begin discussion

2:00ish (re)commence freestyle Saturday activities

We'll be the ones looking like we are about to have a Thoughtful Discussion.

Hope to see you there!

Discussion article for the meetup : Durham/RTLW HPMoR discussion, ch. 90-93
As an upload, would you join the society of full telepaths/empaths?
by Shmi — 2013-10-15T20:59:30.879Z

I asked this question on IRC before and got some surprising answers.

Suppose, for the sake of argument, you get cryo-preserved and eventually wake up as an upload. Maybe meat->sim transfer ends up being much easier than sim->meat or meat->meat, or something. Further suppose that you are not particularly averse to a digital-only existence, at least not enough to specifically prohibit reviving you if this is the only option. Yet further suppose that sim-you is identical to meat-you for all purposes that meat-you cared about (including all your hidden desires and character faults). Let's also preemptively assume that any other attempts to fight this hypothetical have been satisfactorily resolved, just to get this out of the way.

Now, in the "real world", or at least in the simulation level we are at, there is no evidence that telepathy of any kind exists or is even possible. However, in the sim-world there is no technological reason it cannot be implemented in some way, for just thoughts, or just feelings, or both. There is a lot to be said for having this kind of connection between people (or sims). It gets rid of or marginalizes deception, status games, mis-communication-based biases and fallacies. On the other hand, your privacy disappears completely and so do any advantages over others the meat-you might want to retain in the digital world. And what you perceive as your faults are out there for everyone to see and feel.

As a new upload, you are informed that many "people" decided to get integrated into the telepathic society and appear to be happy about it, with few, if any, defections. There is also the group of those who opted out, and it looks basically like your "normal" mundane human society. There is only a limited and strictly monitored interaction between the two worlds to prevent exploitation/manipulation.

Would you choose to get fully integrated or stay as human-like as possible? Feel free to suggest any other alternative (suicide, start a partially integrated society, etc.).

P.S. This topic has been rather extensively covered in science fiction, but I could not find a quality online discussion anywhere.
Meetup : Bristol meetup
by Benya — 2013-10-15T20:04:34.910Z

Discussion article for the meetup : Bristol meetup

WHEN: 20 October 2013 02:00:00PM (+0100)

WHERE: Hodgkin House, 3 Meridian Place, Bristol BS8 1JG

We'll have another meetup in Bristol this upcoming Sunday, October 20, at the student house where I live. We'll officially start at 2pm to hopefully make it reasonably convenient for everyone, but at least two of us will be there from around 12, so if you want to come earlier and hang out a bit more, let me know! (benja.fallenstein@gmail.com, or PM me.)

I'll put up a LessWrong sign outside saying this, but please call me at 07463169075 or (from around 2pm on) ring the buzzer marked "Basement" when you arrive.

Also, whether or not you can attend this time, if you're interested in future meetups, please join the Google group for organizing meetup times!

Discussion article for the meetup : Bristol meetup
How do I back-up myself?
by Locaha — 2013-10-15T17:16:10.993Z

Reading a Reddit thread about the experiences of people who woke up after a long coma, got me thinking. If something similar happens to me, I might wake up with a significant portion of my memories gone (not to mention changes of personality). The question is, how do I make sure that the amnesiac future-me will continue to pursue the goals of present-me?

This can be divided into 3 sub-questions:

How to determine what goals are worth transmitting to my future-self?

How to actually transmit those goals?

How to persuade future-self that the goals are worth pursuing?

Any suggestions?

PS. You may ask, why am I focusing on goals? I'll just let agent Smith speak for me.
US default as a risk to mitigate
by bokov — 2013-10-15T16:41:22.188Z

Update: Thanks everyone for the continuing thought-provoking discussion. I intend to post my decision spreadsheet, and still am looking for suggestions on where to do so. It might come in handy come February. A discussion that I find interesting has branched off on the topic of technological progress versus Malthusian Crunch, and I started a new article on that over here.

I would like to kick off a discussion about optimal strategies to prepare for the event that the US government fails to raise the debt ceiling before the US Treasury Department's "extraordinary measures" are exhausted, which is estimated to happen sometime between October 17th and mid-November.

This is a risk *caused* by politics, but my goal is to talk about bracing against the event itself if it happens, not the underlying politics. If you want to debate Obama-care, who is at fault, or how likely a US default actually is, please start a separate discussion.

I consider this to be an indirect existential risk because if it kicks off a national or global recession, it will likely slow or halt research and philanthropic efforts at mitigating longer-term existential risks.

Since there are obvious associations between unemployment/poverty and crime, civil unrest, and poor health, a global recession is likely to be to some extent a personal existential risk to those living in the United States or countries that have trade links with the United States.

I notice that the markets do not seem to be anticipating a bad outcome. But I heard one analyst advance the theory that investors simply don't believe the government can (his words) "be that stupid". I imagine there is more than a touch of availability bias as well-- breaching the debt ceiling might, even for fund managers who harbor no illusions about the wisdom of politicians, be up there with science-fictional scenarios like asteroid impact, peak oil, grey goo, global warming, and terrorist attacks. Moreover, there may be a dangerous feedback loop as the politicians in turn watch the stock indexes and conclude that "the market says there is nothing to worry about".

So, I would like to hear what folks who are making contingency plans are doing. Especially people who have training or experience in economics and finance. What do you think the closest parallels in 20th/21st century history are for what the worst case scenario for a US government def...
Meetup : Moscow, weekday gathering
by Yuu — 2013-10-15T05:49:22.771Z

Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow, weekday gathering

WHEN:
21 October 2013 07:00:00PM (+0400)

WHERE:
55.755804,37.643312

We will gather at “Neuron” hackspace on Monday, 19:00. Please check this post for detailed instruction how to get there. Address is Khokhlovskiy pereulok, 7/9c2.

We will continue working with beliefs. Please take your notes from the previous meet ups if you visited any. If you do not have any list of your beliefs please think about beliefs you have, write some of them down and bring this notes with you. You will have more beliefs to work with in this case.

Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow, weekday gathering
Meetup : LW/Methods of Rationality meetup
by jimrandomh — 2013-10-15T04:02:11.785Z

Discussion article for the meetup : LW/Methods of Rationality meetup

WHEN:
18 October 2013 07:00:00PM (-0400)

WHERE:
MIT building 6, room 120 Cambridge, MA

On Oct 18th at 7pm there will be a Less Wrong / Methods of Rationality meetup/party on the MIT campus in Building 6, room 120. There will be snacks and refreshments, and Yudkowsky will be in attendance.

http://intelligence.org/2013/10/01/upcoming-talks-at-harvard-and-mit/

Discussion article for the meetup : LW/Methods of Rationality meetup
Cambridge Meetup: Talk by Eliezer Yudkowsky: Recursion in rational agents
by jimrandomh — 2013-10-15T04:02:05.988Z

Discussion article for the meetup : Talk by Eliezer Yudkowsky: Recursion in rational agents: Foundations for self-modifying AI

WHEN: 17 October 2013 04:00:00PM (-0400)

WHERE: Stata Center room 32-123 Cambridge, MA

On October 17th from 4:00-5:30pm, Scott Aaronson will host a talk by MIRI research fellow Eliezer Yudkowsky. Yudkowsky’s talk will take place in MIT’s Ray and Maria Stata Center (see image on right), in room 32-123 (aka Kirsch Auditorium, with 318 seats). There will be light refreshments 15 minutes before the talk. Yudkowsky’s title and abstract are:

Recursion in rational agents: Foundations for self-modifying AI

Reflective reasoning is a familiar but formally elusive aspect of human cognition. This issue comes to the forefront when we consider building AIs which model other sophisticated reasoners, or who might design other AIs which are as sophisticated as themselves. Mathematical logic, the best-developed contender for a formal language capable of reflecting on itself, is beset by impossibility results. Similarly, standard decision theories begin to produce counterintuitive or incoherent results when applied to agents with detailed self-knowledge. In this talk I will present some early results from workshops held by the Machine Intelligence Research Institute to confront these challenges.

The first is a formalization and significant refinement of Hofstadter’s “superrationality,” the (informal) idea that ideal rational agents can achieve mutual cooperation on games like the prisoner’s dilemma by exploiting the logical connection between their actions and their opponent’s actions. We show how to implement an agent which reliably outperforms classical game theory given mutual knowledge of source code, and which achieves mutual cooperation in the one-shot prisoner’s dilemma using a general procedure. Using a fast algorithm for finding fixed points, we are able to write implementations of agents that perform the logical interactions necessary for our formalization, and we describe empirical results.

Second, it has been claimed that Godel’s second incompleteness theorem presents a serious obstruction to any AI understanding why its own reasoning works or even trusting that it does work. We exhibit a simple model for this situation and show that straightforward solutions to this problem are in

...
Meetup : First Meetup in Cologne (Köln)
by David Althaus — 2013-10-14T20:13:50.185Z

Discussion article for the meetup : First Meetup in Cologne (Köln)

WHEN:
10 November 2013 03:00:00PM (+0100)

WHERE:
Starbucks Coffee, An der Hahnepooz 8 50674 Cologne‎

ETA: The meetup is going to take place on November, 10th, 15:00. I'll be there. In case you don't find the place or something, here's my number: 0157 39606835

As far as I can tell, there never has been a Lesswrong meetup in Cologne. This is a shame, considering that Cologne has over 1 million inhabitants.

I recently moved here from Munich (where I already attended 3 Lesswrong Meetups) to study and would like to meet folks who are also interested in Lesswrong and related topics. Regarding the content and structure of the meetup: I would suggest that at first each of us proposes some discussion topics he or she is interested in (e.g. epistemic rationality, effective altruism, far future/FAI, practical life tips, etc.) and then we choose the most popular ones. And simple socializing and getting to know each other is also great, as far as I'm concerned.

Here is a link to a doodle survey (http://doodle.com/3ms7afrniqxb5i7e), in which you can put your favorite date. I prefer Sundays, but if nobody can attend on Sundays, we can probably change the date.

Please, please leave a comment if you're interested in a LW meetup in Cologne, even if you can't attend one in the next weeks/months.

And remember, (almost) everyone is welcome, especially newbies!

Discussion article for the meetup : First Meetup in Cologne (Köln)
Meetup : Atlanta:  Rationalist Movie Night!
by Nova_Division — 2013-10-14T19:08:59.461Z

Discussion article for the meetup : Atlanta: Rationalist Movie Night!

WHEN:
26 October 2013 07:00:00PM (-0400)

WHERE:
1314 Hosea L Williams Dr. NE, Atlanta

Woo! Let's do rationalist cinema, and have popcorn, then discussion, games, or going out for coffee or whatever we like.

I'll post a poll on the facebook page soon with a short list of proposed movies, so more information coming soon.

Please contact me if you have cat allergies, as our meeting space has cats. Incredibly cute cats.

And check out ATLesswrong's facebook group, if you haven't already: https://www.facebook.com/groups/100137206844878/ where you can connect with Atlanta Lesswrongers and vote for a movie.

Discussion article for the meetup : Atlanta: Rationalist Movie Night!
Meetup : Atlanta October Meetup (Second of Two)
by Nova_Division — 2013-10-14T18:33:12.200Z

Discussion article for the meetup : Atlanta October Meetup (Second of Two)

WHEN:
19 October 2013 06:00:00PM (-0400)

WHERE:
1314 Hosea L Williams Dr. NE, Atlanta

Members: Please note the change in location from our usual meetup location.

Come join us for the second meetup for the month of October!
We'll be doing our normal eclectic mix of self-improvement brainstorming, educational mini-presentations, structured discussion, unstructured discussion, and social fun and games times!
Please contact me if you have cat allergies, as our meeting space has cats. Incredibly cute cats.
And check out ATLesswrong's facebook group, if you haven't already: https://www.facebook.com/groups/100137206844878/ where you can connect with Atlanta Lesswrongers and suggest a topics for discussion at this meetup!

Discussion article for the meetup : Atlanta October Meetup (Second of Two)
Meetup : Sunday Brunch Club - Sunday 20th October
by BraydenM — 2013-10-14T08:08:26.230Z

Discussion article for the meetup : Sunday Brunch Club - Sunday 20th October

WHEN:
20 October 2013 07:08:36PM (+1100)

WHERE:
2105 / 5 Caravel Lane Docklands

Dear Friends,

As we await the coming of summer, October in Melbourne is wet yet deceivingly warm. Thank heavens for food though! New friends and old are joining together for the much awaited Sunday Brunch Club. This time held our home, Isengard, in the Docklands with a lovely view of the city and harbour.

Come out for a good time on Sunday Oct 20 for a brunch (lunch?) we have cooked up just for you. Let this be one of the myriad of joyous occasions we choose to celebrate knowing and loving each other. Let us welcome summer, as we embark on our paths, wherever they may lead.

On to the details!
Where: 2105 / 5 Caravel Lane, Docklands
Getting Here: 12 minute walk from Southern Cross station, or catch a free tram straight to our front door.
When: 11am-4pm You will be provided a seating time by Thursday based on your survey responses. Please be punctual so we can make sure it all works to plan!
Suggested Contribution: $11-$15 per person to cover food costs, all excess proceeds to support GiveWell top rated charities.
Guests: Please limit yourself to inviting one additional guest.

We need to receive all RSVPs via this form by 7pm on Thurs 16th October.

Wish you well and look forward to seeing you soon!

Your friends and hosts,

Adrienne, Allison, Brayden, Helen, and Thomas

Tentative À La Carte Menu Below
STARTER

Homemade Pumpkin Bread
Served with nutmeg and rosemary butter

MAINS

Patatas Bravas Latkes
Apple creme drizzled sweet and savoury potato pancakes served with Gruyère cheese and rocket

Omelette du Fromage
Fluffy omelettes with capsicum, ham, mushrooms, tomato, parsley, and, of course, cheese.

DESSERT
Matcha Green Tea Crepes Roulade
A Japanese-French fusion dusted with sugar and served with banana slices

Orange-Blossom Mead du la Glace
Honey-fermented wine liqueur served with vanilla ice cream

DRINKS
Sangria Blanco
Spanish wine punch with chopped fruit

Discussion article for the meetup : Sunday Brunch Club - Sunday 20th October
[LINK] A Turing test for free will
by Stabilizer — 2013-10-14T06:41:42.449Z

Seth Lloyd has posted a well-written pre-print, proposing a self-administered Turing test for free will but also dealing with some other aspects of the free will debate. Some excerpts:

... the theory of computation implies that even when our decisions arise from a completely deterministic decision-making process, the outcomes of that process can be intrinsically unpredictable, even to – especially to – ourselves. I argue that this intrinsic computational unpredictability of the decision making process is what give rise to our impression that we possess free will.

It is important to note that satisifying the criteria for assigning oneself free will does not imply that one possesses consciousness. Having the capacity for self-reference is a far cry from full self-consciousness...An entity that possesses free will need not be conscious in any human sense of the word.

This paper investigated the role of physical law in problems of free will. I reviewed the argument that the mere introduction of probabilistic behavior through, e.g., quantum mechanics, does not resolve the debate between compatibilists and incompatibilists. By contrast, ideas from computer science such as uncomputability and computational complexity do cast light on a central feature of free will – the inability of deciders to predict their decisions before they have gone through the decision making process. I sketched proofs of the following results. The halting problem implies that we can not even predict in general whether we will arrive at a decision, let alone what the decision will be. If she is part of the universe, Laplace’s demon must fail to predict her own actions. The computational complexity analogue of the halting problem shows that to simulate the decision making process is strictly harder than simply making the decision. If one is a compatibilist, one can regard these results as justifying a central feature of free will. If one is an incompatibilist, one can take them to explain free will’s central illusion that our decisions are not determined beforehand. In either case, it is more efficient to be oneself than to simulate oneself.

The "Turing" test itself consists of the following questions:

Q1: Am I a decider?

Q2: Do I make my decisions using recursive reasoning?

Q3: Can I model and simulate – at least partially – my own behavior and ...
Meetup : Melbourne Social Meetup
by Maelin — 2013-10-13T12:26:03.879Z

Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne Social Meetup

WHEN:
18 October 2013 06:30:00PM (+1100)

WHERE:
5 / 52 Leicester St, Carlton

Melbourne's regular monthly Social Meetup will be running as normal on the third Friday evening of the month. All welcome from 6:30pm, feel free to arrive later if that is easier for you.

Our social meetups are friendly, informal events where we chat about topics of interest and often play board games. Sometimes we will also play parlour games like Mafia (a.k.a. Werewolf) or Resistance. We usually order some sort of take-away dinner for any that wish to partake.

Just ring number 5 on the buzzer when you arrive in the foyer and we'll buzz you up. If you get lost or have any problems, feel free to call me (Richard) on 0421231789.

Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne Social Meetup