trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k huggingface dataset:
Sufficiently sincere confirmation bias is indistinguishable from science
by Benquo — 2017-03-15T13:19:05.357Z

Some theater people at NYU people wanted to demonstrate how gender stereotypes affected the 2016 US presidential election. So they decided to put on a theatrical performance of the presidential debates – but with the genders of the principals swapped. They assumed that this would show how much of a disadvantage Hillary Clinton was working under because of her gender. They were shocked to discover the opposite – audiences full of Clinton supporters, watching the gender-swapped debates, came away thinking that Trump was a better communicator than they'd thought.

The principals don't seem to have come into this with a fair-minded attitude. Instead, it seems to have been a case of "I'll show them!":

Salvatore says he and Guadalupe began the project assuming that the gender inversion would confirm what they’d each suspected watching the real-life debates: that Trump’s aggression—his tendency to interrupt and attack—would never be tolerated in a woman, and that Clinton’s competence and preparedness would seem even more convincing coming from a man.

Let's be clear about this. This was not epistemic even-handedness. This was a sincere attempt at confirmation bias. They believed one thing, and looked only for confirming evidence to prove their point. It was only when they started actually putting together the experiment that they realized they might learn the opposite lesson:

But the lessons about gender that emerged in rehearsal turned out to be much less tidy. What was Jonathan Gordon smiling about all the time? And didn’t he seem a little stiff, tethered to rehearsed statements at the podium, while Brenda King, plainspoken and confident, freely roamed the stage? Which one would audiences find more likeable?

What made this work? I think what happened is that they took their own beliefs literally. They actually believed that people hated Hillary because she was a woman, and so their idea of something that they were confident would show this clearly was a fair test. Because of this, when things came out the opposite of the way they'd predicted, they noticed and were surprised, because they actually expected the demonstration to work.

But they went further. Even though they knew in advance of the public performances that the experiment got the wrong answer, they ...
[stub] Soliciting help for experimental design
by MaryCh — 2017-03-15T11:49:48.301Z

TL;DR: I ask for help, either entirely theoretical or more concrete, with design of a quick-and dirty independent survey. In particular, I need to know how to estimate the sample size, number of questions and some other things. I expect to see an effect, but 1) a small one, 2) there are going to be undercurrents & sources of heterogeneity that I cannot right now predict, 3) the whole business is money-constrained, and 4) the relevant (professional) people here have too much skin in the game.

In case this appears too involved for you, please regard it as a purely armchair exercise. Examples of such things done elsewhere are also much appreciated.

Note: sorry for errors; I would have posted this in the Open thread but for the length. I am also going from common sense here, as I see it, so maybe this is all not even wrong from the professional point of view.

Background

The last two years of non-specialized Ukrainian high-schools are going to be reformed (from 'knowledge-oriented' to 'competencies-oriented').

The children who will continue studying in common schools after the 9th grade* will be sorted into 'natural sciences' (NS), 'math' (M) or 'humanities' (H). The specialization will be accompanied by changes in the curriculum. H & M will have 3 lessons a week of 'Man and Nature' instead of a lesson of each physics, chemistry, biology, ecology (the latest is currently a separate subject, perhaps optional, I'm not sure) and geography; H & NS will have less math; and M & NS will have 3 lessons a week of 'Man and Society' instead of 'humanities' as a whole, and that only in the penultimate year. There are going to be 3,5 lessons a week dedicated to remedial or additional instruction in the 'reduced' subjects.

All other considerations aside, there is a fear that this exact reform will be 'for the worse' because the level of 'basic knowledge' will lessen, and nobody knows what 'competencies' are and how to measure them. The Ministry of Education's position is that 'knowledge should be useful in life' (everybody agrees) and 'competencies are the ability to use what you learn in school to solve your problems' (everybody disagrees with everybody else), & that the new program, of course, means new textbooks (almost everybody stops doing what they were doing to shout 'Corruption!')

(Another fear (of mine) is that such a general change invites...
Meetup : LW Sao Paulo - Meetup de março
by leohmarruda — 2017-03-13T23:53:43.475Z

Discussion article for the meetup : LW Sao Paulo - Meetup de março

WHEN:
25 March 2017 02:00:24PM (-0300)

WHERE:
Rua Antônio Carlos, 452. São Paulo, Brazil

Encontro mensal de racionalistas, novatos são bem vindos!
Teremos algumas lições de racionalidade prática, discussões diversas e jogos de tabuleiro no final.
Apresentações sobre aversion factoring, ancoragem e falsos positivos.

Discussion article for the meetup : LW Sao Paulo - Meetup de março
Noble excuses
by Elo — 2017-03-13T23:29:09.016Z

Original post: Noble excuses

I was talking to a lady in her 60s who was losing weight, and exercising. She said to me; "All my life, my husband was an iron man. I felt terribly embarrassed, like everyone in the room was looking at me and thinking - how could he be with her". She confided that she wanted to lose weight for completely superficial reasons, really dumb reasons of caring what people thought about what she looked like. She asked me if this made her a bad person, that she was doing things for the wrong reasons. We just covered Valid and invalid excuses, the territory of excuses overlaps quite heavily with the territory of goals. We make excuses and decisions to do some things and not other things because of our goals. Earlier in the conversation, my friend also shared the usual "get fit, be healthy" attitude that is the more noble reason to be getting fit.

I wouldn't be the first to name this concept. There is a class of excuse that is known as the noble excuse. A noble excuse is the excuse for the action that you are making that sounds the most noble of the possible excuse space. Which is to say; there are often reasons for doing something that extend beyond one or two reasons, and beyond the reason you want to tell people right away.

When I tell my friends I didn't go for a run this morning because I "Don't want to be late for work". That's so noble. It had nothing to do with me being out late the night before, it's raining, the grass is wet, I have hayfever, I didn't get enough sleep, missed my alarm and woke up late. No it's all for caring about being late for work.

Also coming in the form of Noble justifications, a noble excuse is tricky because it acts as an applause light. It tells the guilty brain, "okay you can stop looking now we found out why", it's safe to say that they don't really help us, so much as save face among others or even to ourselves.

Speaking of a noble excuse

"Is that the real reason or is that just a noble excuse"

"Let's not settle on the first noble excuse, what other reasons could there be for these events"

"I wish I could give a noble excuse for being late, but the truth is that I have a bad habit of leaving home late and missing the bus. Next week I will be trying out setting my watch to a few ...
Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Cherry Blossoms
by RobinZ — 2017-03-13T21:18:11.791Z

Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Cherry Blossoms

WHEN:
19 March 2017 03:30:00PM (-0400)

WHERE:
Enid A. Haupt Garden

Note: The meetup location and topic has changed for this week, to take advantage of predicted peak blossom.

We will be gathering at the Enid A. Haupt Garden (outside the south entrance to the Smithsonian Castle, on Independence Ave. between 9th and 12th St. SW, east of the Smithsonian Metro stop) to enjoy the annual cherry blossoms and/or associated festival. We will be congregating around the southwest corner of the garden, near the Sackler Gallery, and set out from there toward the Tidal Basin. If you can't find the group, my number is in the meetup announcement on the Google Group - I generally prefer telephone calls to text messages.

Upcoming meetups:

Mar. 26: Mini Talks

Apr. 2: Great Filter

Apr. 9: Fun & Games

Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Cherry Blossoms
LessWrong Discord
by excinera — 2017-03-13T05:24:20.118Z

After seeing the success of the rationalist tumblr Discord and the Slate Star Codex Discord, I've created a server for LessWrong in general.

It can be accessed through the Discord web client by just clicking on the link: https://discord.gg/eYqZMhm.

The Discord desktop client can be downloaded from the same link, or this one.

Discord, for those who don't know, is basically a text and voice chat platform that's become very popular recently. It has a web interface and a desktop client. It's a little bit weird to get used to, but it's very simple and for whatever reason attracts a much larger crowd than IRC or Skype does. Keep in mind I'm not proposing this as an official solution to the diaspora problem, but if enough people like it, I see no reason why it couldn't be at least a good adjunct to what we have already.

Why another communication medium? Well, why not? LessWrong itself doesn't really serve as a proper conversational locus, the IRC isn't doing much better, and the Facebook groups and Skype groups seem to be doing very badly.

Why Discord? Well, because that's where the people are at, plain and simple. I initially thought that Discord was just a gimmick -- yet another fad communication protocol and all that -- but after participating in it for a while and seeing the vibrance of the community that came from it, I figured that the most important thing is there being a critical mass of people to make discussion worthwhile. And Discord really isn't too bad of a protocol, to be honest!
Open thread, March 13 - March 19, 2017
by Elo — 2017-03-13T03:46:09.125Z

Notes for future OT posters:

1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.

2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page before posting.)

3. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.

4. Unflag the two options "Notify me of new top level comments on this article" and "Make this post available under..." before submitting.
Excuses and validity
by Elo — 2017-03-13T03:44:03.970Z

Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/on-excuses-and-validity/

We learn't yesterday about what is a problem? I want to talk about one specific aspect of the barrier. The part of the barrier that is inside your head. The one that makes excuses.

The barrier inside my own head. The barrier that says, “ice-cream, but I would have to get up out of my chair for that” and decides against it.

Another way to think about one of the classes of in-head barrier is to call them excuses. The reasons your mind makes up as to why you can't do the thing. If we create a class of "excuses", we can talk more about it.

Let's take the simple goal of going for a run in the morning, and look at some of the excuses that might arise from trying to avoid it:

I don't feel like it

I wanted to sleep in

it's raining out

It's too early

It's too late

It's too cold

It's too hot

It's too dark

I feel sick

I have no one to go with

I have a broken leg

I have asthma and can't run

It's my rest day

I am running late to work

I don't have the time

The thing about excuses is that they are all equally valid. "not feeling like it" is just as valid as, "I have a broken leg" as "I don't have the time". But also the thing about excuses is that they are all equally invalid as well. "It's too dark" is just as much an invalid excuse as "it's raining out", as "I have a broken leg".

What really is an excuse that is valid? Well on a day that you got to bed at 4am and you need more sleep than waking up at 7am to go for a run; then yes. "I wanted to sleep in" is a valid excuse. On a day where you sleep from 7pm and wake up at 7am refreshed with a 12 hour sleep under your belt. Well then. Less of an excuse then. Which is to say; The validity of an excuse depends on the situation in which it is made.

As I said above, any excuse is a valid excuse. And any excuse is an invalid one. To a person who gets sick easily; "it's raining" is a real excuse, to someone who can probably run in the rain; that's not much of an excuse.

All excuses are real excuses. There are no rules for which excuses are valid excuses and which excuses are not valid excuses. The solution lies in sorting out the goal and the counter-goals. I have referenced Kegan's immunity to change before,...
How to Choose a Goddess (Using a Spreadsheet)
by Jacob Falkovich — 2017-03-13T02:48:14.000Z

After years spent perfecting my OkCupid game, my efforts hit home in April 2015. Two wonderful girls replied to me on the same day, and two first dates were set up for the following week. Sarah, a redhead Jewish community organizer. Terese, a blonde biologist. My Biblical namesake also knew a thing or two about choosing among two women, but unlike in olden times I didn’t think that marrying both would be a viable option. By May, both relationships had progressed to the point where I was going to have to choose one and break up with the other.

Hey ladies, did you see how long my “staff” is?

I knew two things to be true:

This could potentially be the most important decision of my life. I absolutely had to get it right.

Rationality taught me that this is exactly the kind of decision that humans are terrible at.

The study of rationality interlaces two threads: the math of good decision making and the cognitive psychology of bad decision making. Our brains aren’t well suited to the former, instead we use simple heuristics that work for simple, commonplace decisions.

Unfortunately, the most important decisions we make in our lives are neither simple nor quotidian: what to study, where to work, which house or car to buy. These decisions come up infrequently. They involve comparing several options that differ on many variables and carry long-term and uncertain effects. Our brains are short-term oriented, clouded by transient emotions, and often fixate on a single factor instead of evaluating the broad picture.

That’s not a promising way to pick a girlfriend.

The study of heuristic decision making became a science in the last 50 years, but a story from roughly Biblical times illustrates the issue perfectly: the judgment of Paris. Paris is a (secret) Trojan prince living as a cowboy on a lovely Mediterranean island, passing his days by staging bull fights and cavorting with nymphs. Paris is known for his good looks, big cojones, and for his great judgment. When the three great Greek goddesses quarrel over which one of them is the most beautiful, even Zeus declines to pass a verdict lest the two spurned goddesses turn against him. The decision is delegated to Paris.

Paris doesn’t shrink from the perilous task, he relishes it. He appraises Athena, Hera and Aphrodite, then makes the goddesses strip and parade in front of him naked, then...
Meetup : Superintelligence chapter 3
by pepe_prime — 2017-03-12T20:59:35.489Z

Discussion article for the meetup : Superintelligence chapter 3

WHEN:
31 March 2017 04:45:00PM (+0100)

WHERE:
Lindstedtsvägen 3, room 1537, SE-114 28 Stockholm, Sverige

We'll have a 30 minute summary of chapter 3 of Superintelligence, followed by free-form discussion. We'll repeat this with later chapters about every 2 weeks.

Format:
We meet and start hanging out at 5:45, but don't officially start doing the meetup topic until 6:00 to accomodate stragglers. We often go out for dinner after the meetup.

How to find us:
The meetup is at a KTH academic building and the room is on the 5th floor, two stairs up.

Influence future meetups:
Times - http://www.when2meet.com/?5723551-cJBhD
Topics - https://druthe.rs/dockets/-KcCvpn97vUhg3tQRrKn

Discussion article for the meetup : Superintelligence chapter 3
Being useless to show effectiveness
by KatjaGrace — 2017-03-12T15:10:32.000Z

From an email discussion (lightly edited):

I actually think an important related dynamic, in the world at large more than EA, is people favoring actions that are verifiably useless to themselves over ones that are probably useful to others but also maybe useful to themselves. I blogged about this here a while ago. In short, I see this as a signaling problem. The undesirable action (destroying resources in an evidently useless way) is intended to signal that you are not bad. Bad people (greedy exploiters trying to steal everyone else’s stuff) can make themselves look just like effective good people (both do things that look high leverage and where it is not totally clear what the levers are ultimately pushing). So the bad people do that, because it beats looking bad. Then there is no signal that the effective good people can send to distinguish themselves from the bad people. So people who want to not look bad have to look ineffective instead.

A way something like this might happen in our vicinity e.g. if I genuinely guess that the most effective thing to do might be for me to buy a delicious drink and then sit still in a comfy place for the day and think about human coordination in the abstract. However this is much like what a selfish version of me might do. So if I want to not humiliate myself by seeming like a cheating free-rider liar motivated reasoner in front of the other EAs, or perhaps if I just experience too much doubt about my own motives or even if I just want to make it straightforward for others around to know they can trust me, perhaps I should instead work for a reputable EA org or earn money in an annoying way and give it to someone far away from me.

On this model, the situation would be improved by a way to demonstrate that one is effective-good rather than effective-evil. (As in, a second sense in which it is a signaling problem is that adding a good way to signal would make it better).
Meetup : Baltimore / UMBC Meetup - general discussion
by iarwain1 — 2017-03-12T03:45:53.635Z

Discussion article for the meetup : Baltimore / UMBC Meetup - general discussion

WHEN:
12 March 2017 07:00:00PM (-0500)

WHERE:
Performing Arts and Humanities Bldg 4th floor, 1000 Hilltop Cir, Baltimore, MD 21250

No parking restrictions on weekends, so park wherever you want.

Discussion article for the meetup : Baltimore / UMBC Meetup - general discussion
Meetup : March - pub meetup
by Elo — 2017-03-12T02:37:16.611Z

Discussion article for the meetup : March - pub meetup

WHEN:
23 March 2017 06:30:00PM (+1100)

WHERE:
level 2, 565 george st, sydney

Come along to our regular monthly pub meetup to talk all things math, science, magic, engineering, thinking, growth, reasoning and beliefs.

If you are an aspiring rationalist, a nerd, geek, scientist or just a quiet thinker - we can't wait to meet you to share ideas, discuss, dance off, learn and grow together.

See you there! Also, while you are at it - bring a friend along too!

https://www.facebook.com/events/224035624738084/

https://www.meetup.com/lesswrong-Sydney0/events/238352488/

Discussion article for the meetup : March - pub meetup
What is a problem?
by Elo — 2017-03-12T02:04:32.077Z

Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/what-is-a-problem/

I originally posed this idea in my list of short stubs. Under that heading I briefly outlined:

What is a problem - On the path of problem solving, understanding what a problem is will help you to understand how to attack it. Nothing more complicated than this picture to explain it. The barrier is a problem. This doesn't seem important on it's own but as a foundation for thinking about problems it's good to have sitting around somewhere.

I want to expand on that a bit more. I have labelled some states in this picture:

Present state

Goal state

Barrier to the goal

Path to the goal

Present state

All things being unchanged; prior to actions in pursuit of a goal, this is where you are. Sitting at home in my chair at my computer I have not yet decided I want to go get ice-cream. If I do nothing, I might eventually end up getting ice-cream by happenstance. I may casually interact with friends who encourage me to get ice-cream with them this evening. Nothing entirely stops me from getting ice-cream but also nothing propels me to do it either. Without goals, without paths, you can live a lot of life, casually random-walking your way through the galaxy, encountering what you encounter, and responding at will to those stimuli. We might describe a specimen who only cares about the present state, as having low agency.

Goal state

Let's pretend that we duplicated the universe, with the slight modification that I am now eating ice-cream. That might be my goal. Or as close as possible as I can get to that goal-state. There are lots of things that are not ice-cream-goal state and lots of things that come close. I could eat my toes, I could eat some cheese I have in my fridge which is a bit cold. I could eat an apple, I could eat some ice cubes, I could drink a glass of milk, I could make my own ice-cream, I could give ice-cream to other people. All of these things are not quite the goal, but are quite close. Notice that this goal doesn't currently include my path to ice-cream. Just that I have a goal now.

Path

We can visualise a path in many ways. This should be unsurprising. The fact is that if I want ice-cream, I need to get up out of my chair and loo...