trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k huggingface dataset:
Request for advice- Reading on politics
by Curiouskid — 2012-01-05T21:14:09.865Z

I've become adept at navigating the bureaucracy of my public high school. I've dropped environmental science as an AP (because it was painfully slow and replete with busywork) and am now taking an "independent study" in government. I'm going to be using this mainly as a way to study environmental science at my own pace, but I also have to read and write some about standard political issues. the requirements of the independent study are pretty vague. In order to get approved, I've got to BS some reason why I should be granted an independent study. I'm obviously not going to speak plainly. I'll probably say something about my interests in seasteading, environmentalism, and education reform. What books do you recommend on the politics of these subjects given that it is the mindkiller? Also, the main focus is on environmentalism, not on education or seasteading. I've done a bit of research regarding seasteading, but there's not much that I know about

I was particularly interested in this point brought up in the seasteading book:

Let’s consider several different levels on which we could discuss politics:

· Policy. For example, a debate about whether to criminalize drug use, attempt to reduce the harm of use, or completely legalize it. What are the effects of each specific policy? Which does the most net good? Who is hurt, and who is helped?

· System. What types of policies does a specific political system tend to generate? For example, in a democracy, a special interest group can easily coordinate to influence legislation which benefits them, but costs everyone a little bit. If every consumer loses a dollar a year from a policy, it just isn’t worth anyone’s time to fight it. Hence we expect democracies to frequently produce policies which steal small amounts from many and give them to a few. And in

...
Meetup : Seattle Board Games
by SarahNibs — 2012-01-05T21:03:59.547Z

Discussion article for the meetup : Seattle Board Games

WHEN:
08 January 2012 01:01:30PM (-0800)

WHERE:
15207 NE 72nd St, Redmond, WA 98052, USA

Come play board games with fellow LWers and friends in Redmond!

Go to http://groups.google.com/group/lw-seattle to arrange carpooling.

Discussion article for the meetup : Seattle Board Games
Baconmas: The holiday for the sciences
by orthonormal — 2012-01-05T18:51:10.606Z

Summary: Sir Francis Bacon's birthday (Jan. 22) is a holiday devoted to the sciences, with a side order of bacon. Check out the website and share the Baconmas cheer with everyone!

What is Baconmas?

For the past few years, I've been celebrating the birthday of Sir Francis Bacon (Jan. 22) as a holiday, hosting parties with both science experiments and bacon dishes. It's been excellent enough that I want to share it with everyone else, so I made a website devoted to Baconmas and I'd like you to check it out (and share it if you like it).

It goes without saying that holidays devoted to the sciences can be a force for good as well as a lot of fun (if you haven't, you should see the writeup of the Solstice Celebration for an awesome example). I thought it would be especially powerful to have a holiday that was (1) explicitly about science, (2) fun to celebrate, with a "hook" like bacon, and (3) positive and open to everyone.

The main "tradition" of Baconmas is simply to try something new with each celebration, and to record how it went. Everything else is just a suggestion. I think it's clear that the Zombie Feynman school of science is a powerful and good meme. Science isn't only about the things that are shiny and fun, but it should be shiny and fun whenever possible. So I'm linking a bunch of fun, easy experiments (that have actual content for both novices and the scientifically literate).

How can I help Baconmas grow?

Are you as excited about Baconmas as I am? Great! There are some things you can do to really help!

Tell all your friends! Share the website, the Twitter feed, and the Facebook event page. If you're part of a relevant forum (anything from a subreddit to the XKCD forums), share it there too!

Host a Baconmas party, and then send me (happybaconmas at gmail) pictures/video/testimonials that I can add to the site! These will help Baconmas 2013 grow even faster than 2012.

Create a local Baconmas Meetup group, and send me a link that I can post.

Find or invent any of the following: experiments, recipes, traditions, carols, guest blog posts; then send them to me for the Baconmas site!

One thing that would be totally incredible: a funny video biography of Sir Francis Bacon, done with puppets/costume/animation/whatever works for you! I'd love to do this myself, but may not have the time.

Give me feedback and ideas for the website and everything else!

P.S. T...
[Link] Evaluating experts on expertise
by Kaj_Sotala — 2012-01-05T18:49:46.457Z

https://ignoranceanduncertainty.wordpress.com/2011/08/11/expertise-on-expertise/

Nice article on meta-expertise, ie. the skill of figuring out which experts are actually experts. The author notes that there are domains in which can't really be mastered, and then lays out some useful-seeming tests for distinguishing them:

Cognitive biases and styles aside, another contributing set of factors may be the characteristics of the complex, deep domains themselves that render deep expertise very difficult to attain. Here is a list of tests you can apply to such domains by way of evaluating their potential for the development of genuine expertise:

Stationarity? Is the domain stable enough for generalizable methods to be derived? In chaotic systems long-range prediction is impossible because of initial-condition sensitivity. In human history, politics and culture, the underlying processes may not be stationary at all.

Rarity? When it comes to prediction, rare phenomena simply are difficult to predict (see my post on making the wrong decisions most of the time for the right reasons).

Observability? Can the outcomes of predictions or decisions be directly or immediately observed? For example in psychology, direct observation of mental states is nearly impossible, and in climatology the consequences of human interventions will take a very long time to unfold.

Objective or even impartial criteria? For instance, what is “good,” “beautiful,” or even “acceptable” in domains such as music, dance or the visual arts? Are such domains irreducibly subjective and culture-bound?

Testability? Are there clear criteria for when an expert has succeeded or failed? Or is there too much “wiggle-room” to be able to tell?

Finally, here are a few tests that can be used to evaluate the “experts” in your life:

Credentials: Does the expert possess credentials that have involved testable criteria for demonstrating proficiency?

Walking the walk: Is the expert an active practitioner in their domain (versus being a critic or a commentator)?

Overconfidence: Ask your expert to make yes-no predictions in their domain of expertise, and before any of these predictions can be tested ask them to estimate the percentage of time they’re going to be correct. Compare that estimate with the resulting percentage correct. If t

...
Giving: is money better than options?
by jefftk — 2012-01-05T13:54:55.387Z

When I started my new job at a startup about a year ago, I started getting about a third [1] of my pay in stock options. Being risk neutral in donating, I decided to spend my salary on me and donate any proceeds from my stock options. This let me increase the fraction of my pay I was giving away without decreasing what I keep. Mathematically and economically, considering just what I can give, I think this was the right decision.

The problem is, much of my potential impact is from convincing others to give, and if I have to talk about stock options, expected value, and money that I intend to give away it's confusing and distracting. Things were much simpler when we could just say "we lived on about $22,000 and gave about $45,000". Should I switch back to giving money?

It would not be an easy switch. Options represent a small chance of a lot of money, and they're not very valuable to me personally. (Each additional dollar is worth less than the last). If I were to start giving a third of my compensation away as cash, that would be about 2/3 of my paycheque [2]. Which would be pretty hard. Maybe I should donate some combination of cash and options? Making this more complicated, I had negotiated more options in exchange for a $10K lower salary, figuring that for money I was giving away this was the right thing to do. Suggestions?

[1] You might say "how can you say 'about a third' when you have no idea whether your stock options will even be worth something ever?" What I did was estimate how likely I thought Cogo Labs was to be worth $X in about ten brackets ($0, $10M, $50M, ...), and then calculate an expected value as $0*P_1 + $10M*P_2 + $50M*P_3... Then I multiplied by the fraction of the company whose options would vest to me each quarter, and got something about half my quarterly salary. So: one third of compensation.

[2] It's 1/2 my salary (the last third is options) but 2/3 of takehome pay because 1/6 of my pay goes to taxes and other paycheque deductions.

(I also put this up as a blog post)
Quantified Health Prize Deadline Extended
by alyssavance — 2012-01-05T09:28:09.184Z

(Original Post: Announcing the Quantified Health Prize)

I've recently been hired by Personalized Medicine, a new research company trying to bring Less Wrongian rationality to the medical world. We're giving away a $5000 prize for well-researched, well-reasoned presentations that answer the following question: What are the best recommendations for what quantities adults (ages 20-60) should take the important dietary minerals in, and what are the costs and benefits of various amounts?

Entries are now due by January 15th, 2012. This is an update from the original date of December 31st, 2011. However, we will not change this deadline again, and it will be strictly enforced. If you submit your entry on January 16 at 12:01 AM Pacific time, we will not read it.

Why enter the contest? If you have an excellent entry, even if you don’t win the grand prize, you can still win one of four additional cash prizes, you’ll be under consideration for a job as a researcher with our company Personalized Medicine, and you’ll get a leg up in the larger contest we plan to run after this one. You also get to help people get better nutrition and stay healthier.

More info about the contest, and instructions for submitting entries, can be found at the contest website at http://www.medicineispersonal.com/contest/home. Good luck!
Quixey is hiring a writer
by Liron — 2012-01-05T06:22:06.326Z

We've posted about jobs at Quixey before:

Quixey - startup applying LW-style rationality - hiring engineers

Since then we've hired LessWrong user cata. And it occurred to us that the LessWrong community is not only full of software engineers, it's also full of unusually strong writers.

Job Description

Help write and edit content to professional standards. For example:

Copy for quixey.com

Posts on the Quixey Blog

Documents and slides for pitches to potential partners

White papers

Employee handbook

Internal style guide

Video scripts

Twitter messages

Requirements:

You have really great writing skills

You love marketing and telling a clear story

Quixey is a great place to work with top notch people, and a great opportunity to advance your career as part of a fast-growing startup. For more info about Quixey, see this post.

This is a full-time position in our Palo Alto, California office with competitive compensation and benefits.

To apply, email some Bayesian evidence that you're a good match to jobs@quixey.com, such as your LessWrong user profile. (It's hard to imagine evidence that wouldn't be screened off by a writing sample.)

Added: We're also interested to test a contract writer. Please email us if you want to do that, too.
[SEQ RERUN] The Parable of the Dagger
by MinibearRex — 2012-01-05T05:34:03.363Z

Today's post, The Parable of the Dagger was originally published on 01 February 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):

A parable adapted from Raymond Smullyan, showing a failure of logic to reach a desired goal.

Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).
This post is part of the Rerunning the Sequences series, where we'll be going through Eliezer Yudkowsky's old posts in order so that people who are interested can (re-)read and discuss them. The previous post was Newcomb's Problem and Regret of Rationality, and you can use the sequence_reruns tag or rss feed to follow the rest of the series.
Sequence reruns are a community-driven effort. You can participate by re-reading the sequence post, discussing it here, posting the next day's sequence reruns post, or summarizing forthcoming articles on the wiki. Go here for more details, or to have meta discussions about the Rerunning the Sequences series.
[Link] ASPERGERS/PUA official university research project
by Karmakaiser — 2012-01-05T04:51:03.415Z

I know some wrongians have studied pickup. In case any are formally diagnosed on the Autism spectrum:

http://www.reddit.com/r/seduction/comments/ncov4/aspergerspua_official_university_research_project/

Hey guys!

Have you improved a lot socially after studying the game? (even if your overall game isn't rockstar level?)

Would your family say you are easier to get along with now?

Is your stress level better?

We are four formally diagnosed aspies who have found major improvement via the game. We've investigated this thoroughly and now a clinical professor in autism at a major university is going to research this in depth. This is likely to draw major funding as a formal research project.

Yes, that means the changes you have felt may enter the academic system and be available to help aspies all over the world.. not just the few of us who are able to study social dynamics.

But we need your help!

We need more guys willing to go through an interview process with the clinical professor, to talk about their experiences and how your life has changed. (we're doing it too!). This is something very very special and the cornerstone of some big things. You must be formally diagnosed on the autism spectrum (which includes PDD NOS).

This is not about promoting the game. This is about extracting the key pieces out of the game with the goal of helping everyone on the autism spectrum lead happier lives.

We get asked if this is real. Yes, it absolutely is. The reality is that for a small percentage of aspies who get into it, the game has a profound impact on their lives, far beyond anything else available today. The rest aren't advanced enough socially to be able to handle the game. We're doing this to help them because we understand how difficult their lives are. Everyone deserves quality relationships in their lives.

If you're interested, please email us. Of course everything will be 1000% confidential -- we fully understand that both the autism and game aspects of this need to be quiet. And thats why this research is so important, because it hasn't been done before for this reason.

Please, contact us.. even if you're not sure.. we'll show you what we have.. I think you'll be blown away.

Daniel [1] project.aspergers@gmail.com (we're using a throwaway email address for the initial research. but yes, this is 100% real and you will work directly with us.)

&nb...
East Coast Megameetup II: Request for Talks
by atucker — 2012-01-05T03:23:18.515Z

One thing that I'd like to see at the next megameetup is a few informal focused discussions on various topics related to the community, like meditation or diet.

People should prepare for them, but I don't think that say, powerpoints would be necessary. Just trying to encourage knowledge transfer.

Anyone on the East Coast interested in giving one? Any things you'd like to see?

Schedule Update: The Megameetup will be held on on the weekend of January 27th or February 4th.
Professional Patients: Fraud that ruins studies
by jimrandomh — 2012-01-05T00:20:55.708Z

I just read Antidepressants: Bad Drugs... Or Bad Patients, linked by wallowinmaya in a discussion post and based on the journal articles Antidepressant Clinical Trials and Subject Recruitment: Just Who Are Symptomatic Volunteers? and Failure Rate and "Professional Subjects" in Clinical Trials of Major Depressive Disorder (paywalled). The authors of the latter paper "were told anonymously by trial sponsors that duplicate subjects in some protocols have been as high as 5%", and write "we believe that failure rates are rising due to the increase in "professional subjects," who go from site to site, learning inclusion and exclusion criteria and collecting stipends."

Aha! No wonder so much antidepressant research is crap. How many people do you suppose there are, who sign up for lots of trials at once? They'd have to defraud the researchers, of course; no one would allow a patient like that into their study knowingly. What do you suppose that sort of person would do, and how would it be reflected in the data? What other types of studies are affected? And how would we find out? (Dietary studies look vulnerable, and their results have been conspicuously unreliable. On the other hand, lots of people want to lose weight, so legitimate subjects are probably plentiful and drive down the percentage).

Let's start with some speculative modeling. First, to be clear: we're talking about people who participate in multiple studies, and lie about it. That means defrauding researchers, and they know it. If they're doing so rationally, then a lot of their responses are going to be lies, designed to maximize the chance they get paid, and minimize the chance they get caught. Now, if you were defrauding researchers anyways, there's no reason to actually take all the drugs, and good reasons not to (other drugs they denied taking could interact, for example). Instead, you'd start by figuring out whether you were in the placebo group or not. This isn't very hard; you can either try the pills and see if there's any effect at all (real drugs have perceptible effects, even if they're only side effects), or break one open and taste it, or even do a proper chemical test. If in the placebo group, you'd answer all questions in a manner consistent with getting no effect: no side effects, no change in status, etc. This could be even more placebo-like than ...
[LINK] Antidepressants: Bad Drugs... Or Bad Patients?
by David Althaus — 2012-01-04T21:31:33.387Z

Illuminating post on Neuroskeptic:

Some Quotes:

Why is it that modern trials of antidepressant drugs increasingly show no benefit of the drugs over placebo?.....

They suggest that maybe it's the patients fault: Participation that is induced by cash payments may lead subjects to exaggerate their symptoms [i.e. in order to get included into the trial]... Another contributing factor to high placebo response rates may be the extent to which the volunteers in antidepressant trials are really generalizable to patients in clinical practice.

Since the initial antidepressant trials in the 1960s, participants have gone from being patients who were recruited primarily from inpatient psychiatric populations to outpatient volunteers who are often recruited by advertisements. At times, these symptomatic volunteers have participated in other trials. When we contact potential participants to schedule screening, they often ask to be reminded which trial we are screening for or mistake our research trial for a different protocol in which they recently participated.

A few years ago I was running a study recruiting people who'd recovered from psychiatric illness. The main source of volunteers was online adverts..... We recruited about 20 people. No fewer than 3 turned out to have enrolled in other studies and lied about it. After I realized this I Googled the offender's names and two of them turned up in the court pages of the local newspaper pleading guilty to various petty crimes.

In my view, the authors miss out on the real problem with recruiting depressed people through adverts: depressed people don't tend to respond to adverts, because depressed people don't do anything. That's why they call it depression.

So while you wouldn't go looking for aquaphobic people in a swimming pool, I'm not sure we should be looking for depressed people through adverts.

Could similar mechanisms hold true for other drugs?
Anger To Warm Fuzzies With DNS
by  — 2012-01-04T19:25:58.947Z

We have a third-party DNS provider at my work that blocks certain sites. When a site is blocked I get redirected to a web page filled with ads to support the provider. I do not want to support the provider. I can't use something like Goolge DNS since our internal server names resolve through the same provider. Also, for various reasons, it would be a pain to maintain host file entries for the internal servers. So, considering myself stuck with the blocking, I initially made that URL redirect to a custom web page that just said "Blocked". Then I thought, instead of just seeing that message and getting angry I can purchase some fuzzies and set out to find a site that deserved the ad revenue. Now, I'm not entirely sure ad impression revenue from http://www.causes.com/causes/7416-singularity-institute-for-artificial-intelligence?recruiter_id=141717962 goes to SI and I wouldn't mind if it went to causes.com, but it was the only SI related site I could find with ads. If anyone thinks any site for any charity may be more efficient (I know this idea isn't extremely efficient in the first place) I'd like to consider it.

I'm not sure what the average level of computer knowledge is on LW. For now, since I'm lazy, I'll assume it's high and just say, if you'd like to to do something like this and you have admin rights on your machine, just add a host file entry to redirect the "blocked site" URL to localhost and create a webpage that just redirects to your preferred charity site with ads. If you'd like more detailed help for Windows or Linux (and maybe Mac), I may be able to help. Also, if anyone thinks of a less involved way of accomplishing the same results I'd like to hear about it, +1 if it works for all browsers without individual configuration, +2 if it doesn't require admin rights, +bleem if both.