trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k huggingface dataset:
Counterfactual self-defense
by MrMind — 2012-11-23T10:15:47.039Z

Let's imagine these following dialogues between Omega and an agent implementing TDT. Usual standard assumptions on Omega applies: the agent knows Omega is real, trustworthy and reliable, and Omega knows that the agent knows that, and the agent knows that Omega knows that the agent knows, etc. (that is, Omega's trustworthiness is common knowledge, à la Aumann).

Dialogue 1.

Omega: "Would you accept a bet where I pay you 1000$ if a fair coin flip comes out tail and you pay me 100$ if it comes out head?"
TDT: "Sure I would."
Omega: "I flipped the coin. It came out head."
TDT: "Doh! Here's your 100$."

I hope there's no controversy here.

Dialogue 2.

Omega: "I flipped a fair coin and it came out head."
TDT: "Yes...?"
Omega: "Would you accept a bet where I pay you 1000$ if the coin flip came out tail and you pay me 100$ if it came out head?"
TDT: "No way!"

I also hope no controversy arises: if the agent would answer yes, then there's no reason he wouldn't accept all kinds of losing bets conditioned on information it already knows.

The two bets are equal, but the information is presented in different order: in the second dialogue, the agent has the time to change its knowledge about the world and should not accept bets that it already knows are losing.

But then...

Dialogue 3.

Omega: "I flipped a coin and it came out head. I offer you a bet where I pay you 1000$ if the coin flip comes out tail, but only if you agree to pay me 100$ if the coin flip comes out head."
TDT: "...?"

In the original counterfactual discussion, apparently the answer of the TDT implementing agent should have been yes, but I'm not entirely clear on what is the difference between the second and the third case.

Thinking about it, it seems that the case is muddled because the outcome and the bet are presented at the same time. On one hand, it appears correct to think that an agent should act exactly how it should if it had pre-committed, but on the other hand, an agent should not ignore any information is presented (it's a basic requirement of treating probability as extended logic).

So here's a principle I would like to call 'counterfactual self-defense': whenever informations and bets are presented to the agent at the same time, it always first conditions its priors and only then examines whatever bets has been offered. This should prevent Omega from offering counterfactual losing bets, but not counterfactual ...
[link] Misinformation and Its Correction: Continued Influence and Successful Debiasing
by Kaj_Sotala — 2012-11-23T07:58:13.224Z

http://psi.sagepub.com/content/13/3/106.full

Abstract.

The widespread prevalence and persistence of misinformation in contemporary societies, such as the false belief that there is a link between childhood vaccinations and autism, is a matter of public concern. For example, the myths surrounding vaccinations, which prompted some parents to withhold immunization from their children, have led to a marked increase in vaccine-preventable disease, as well as unnecessary public expenditure on research and public-information campaigns aimed at rectifying the situation.

We first examine the mechanisms by which such misinformation is disseminated in society, both inadvertently and purposely. Misinformation can originate from rumors but also from works of fiction, governments and politicians, and vested interests. Moreover, changes in the media landscape, including the arrival of the Internet, have fundamentally influenced the ways in which information is communicated and misinformation is spread.

We next move to misinformation at the level of the individual, and review the cognitive factors that often render misinformation resistant to correction. We consider how people assess the truth of statements and what makes people believe certain things but not others. We look at people’s memory for misinformation and answer the questions of why retractions of misinformation are so ineffective in memory updating and why efforts to retract misinformation can even backfire and, ironically, increase misbelief. Though ideology and personal worldviews can be major obstacles for debiasing, there nonetheless are a number of effective techniques for reducing the impact of misinformation, and we pay special attention to these factors that aid in debiasing.

We conclude by providing specific recommendations for the debunking of misinformation. These recommendations pertain to the ways in which corrections should be designed, structured, and applied in order to maximize their impact. Grounded in cognitive psychological theory, these recommendations may help practitioners—including journalists, health professionals, educators, and science communicators—design effective misinformation retractions, educational tools, and public-information campaigns.

This is a fascinating article with many, many interesting points. I'm excerpting some of them below, but mostly just to g...
Playing the student: attitudes to learning as social roles
by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg)  — 2012-11-23T02:56:20.331Z

This is a post about something I noticed myself doing this year, although I expect I’ve been doing it all along. It’s unlikely to be something that everyone does, so don’t be surprised if you don’t find this applies to you. It's also an exercise in introspection, i.e. likely to be inaccurate.

Intro

If I add up all the years that I’ve been in school, it amounts to about 75% of my life so far–and at any one time, school has probably been the single activity that I spend the most hours on. I would still guess that 50% or less of my general academic knowledge was actually acquired in a school setting, but school has tests, and grades at the end of the year, and so has provided most of the positive/negative reinforcement related to learning. The ‘attitudes to learning’ that I’m talking about apply in a school setting, not when I’m learning stuff for fun.

Role #1: Overachiever

Up until seventh grade, I didn’t really socialize at school–but once I started talking to people, it felt like I needed a persona, so that I could just act ‘in character’ instead of having to think of things to say from scratch. Being a stereotypical overachiever provided me with easy material for small talk–I could talk about schoolwork to other people who were also overachievers.

Years later, after acquiring actual social skills in the less stereotyped environments of part-time work and university, I play the overachiever more as a way of reducing my anxiety in class. (School was easy for me up until my second year of nursing school, when we started having to do scary things like clinical placements and practical exams, instead of nice safe things like written exams.) If I can talk myself into always being curious and finding everything exciting and interesting and cool I want to do that!!!, I can’t find everything scary–or, at the very least, to other people it looks like I’m not scared.

Role #2: Too Cool for School

This isn’t one I’ve played too much, aside from my tendency to put studying for exams as maybe my fourth priority–after work, exercise, and sleep–and still having an A average. (I will still skip class to work a shift at the ER any day, but that doesn’t count–wor

...
The wandering rationalist: an update
by Despard — 2012-11-22T20:55:54.093Z

As per my original post here, and the more recent one by shokwave here, here's my attempt to nail down some dates for when I'll be in various places (both in the States and elsewhere). All dates are provisional, especially between Colorado and Washington, and my West Coast tour in January.

For the US portion of the trip I've decided to go mostly by bus and train; Greyhound have just discontinued their Discovery Pass (which allows unlimited travel for up to 30 days) but I was able to snag a 15 day one on a special offer for the first half of my trip.

Ann Arbor, MI: Dec 4th

Lansing, MI: Dec 5th

Chicago, IL: Dec 6th

Madison, WI: Dec 7th

Minneapolis, MN: Dec 9th

Kansas City, MO: Dec 12th

Oklahoma City, OK: Dec 13th

Austin, TX: Dec 15th

Laredo, TX: Dec 16th

Oklahoma City, OK: Dec 18th

Denver, CO: Dec 19th

Salt Lake City, UT: Dec 22nd

Kennewick, WA: Dec 23rd

Spokane, WA: Dec 26th

Vancouver, BC: Dec 31st

Seattle, WA: Jan 3rd

Portland, OR: Jan 6th

San Francisco, CA: Jan 10th

Los Angeles, CA: Jan 15th

-- booked flights --

Nadi, Fiji Jan 21st

Auckland, NZ Jan 26th

Sydney, Australia Feb 16th

Singapore Mar 9th

Tokyo, Japan Mar 22nd

Seoul, Korea Apr 21st

London, UK May 7th

Reykjavik, Iceland Jun 8th

New York, NY Jun 13th

In the States portion of my trip, I have accommodation everywhere except: Chicago (where the friends I was expecting to stay with won't actually be there at that time); Kansas City; Austin (though I do believe I was offered a couch in the previous thread); SLC (though I may sleep on the coach and pass straight through on my long trip North if nobody is around); and the West Coast which I'm not worried about yet because it's an entire month away...

So do contact me if you're interested in meeting up and/or hosting me. As I said dates are subject to change if necessary or if I feel like it!
"Optimal" mammography?
by Shmi — 2012-11-22T20:02:45.554Z

With all the Bayesian experts here, it should be a no-brainer to figure out what to make of the recent study (popular description). It says that, despite doubling early detection rates, late stage cancers declined by barely 8%, so most new early detections are effectively false positives, i.e. they would not develop into a life-threatening condition if left untreated.

Some contradictory quotes:

"We've suggested to women that having a mammogram is one of the most important things you can do for your health, and that's simply not true," Welch says. "I can't tell you the right thing to do, except to tell women the truth, tell them both sides of the story. We shouldn't be scaring women. This is a really close call."

Eric Winer, head of breast medical oncology at Boston's Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, notes that the study found an 8% reduction in the number of women whose tumors were detected at more advanced stages. Even under a scenario in which mammograms led more than 1 million women to receive unnecessary treatment, the screenings would have prevented 410,000 diagnoses of late-stage cancer.

Though women have been instructed that "early detection saves lives," relatively few are told that screenings also have costs, including the risk of undergoing surgery, radiation and drug therapy that doesn't help them, Kramer says. "The risks of overdiagnosis are real, and women ought to know about it," Kramer says.

Given the test's limitations, Winer says, women may choose to have fewer screenings to reduce their risk. "It certainly suggests that a woman who chooses to wait until she's 50 to have mammograms, or who chooses to have mammograms every other year, is making a rational decision," Winer says.

“We’re coming to learn that some cancers — many cancers, depending on the organ — weren’t destined to cause death,” said Dr. Barnett Kramer, a National Cancer Institute screening expert. However, “once a woman is diagnosed, it’s hard to say treatment is not necessary.”

“We are left to conclude, as others have, that the good news in breast cancer — decreasing mortality — must largely be the result of improved treatment, not screening,”

“Instead, we’re diagnosing a lot of something else — not cancer” in that early stage, Bleyer said. “And the worst cancer is stil...
AGI-12 and AGI-Impacts - late places available
by Stuart_Armstrong — 2012-11-22T12:53:40.920Z

There are still some places available in the Winter Intelligence Multi-Conference, a dual conference including AGI-12 (the Fifth Conference on Artificial General Intelligence), followed by the AGI impacts conference. The impacts conference will about the safety, risks and impacts of AGI, and how best to prepare now for these challenges. This is of great relevance to the people of Less Wrong. Plus it's in Oxford - Oxford is nice.

The AGI-12 conference is on the 8th-9th December (with morning workshops on the 10th-11th), while the AGI impacts conference in on the 10th-11th. Reduced prices are available for students; details here.

Hope to see as many of you as we can! And if people want to stay on for a few days after the conference, people from the Future of Humanity Institute should be available to chat with.
Meetup : First meetup in Innsbruck 
by David Althaus — 2012-11-21T22:31:18.709Z

Discussion article for the meetup : First meetup in Innsbruck

WHEN:
02 December 2012 03:00:17PM (+0100)

WHERE:
Innsbruck, Austria

Let's organize the first Lesswrong meetup of Innsbruck!
To be part of this historical event just click on this doodle-survey
and vote for your favorite time.

You can also write a comment and suggest a place and discussion-topics if you want to.

Newbies and lurkers are welcome, obviously!

Discussion article for the meetup : First meetup in Innsbruck
[LINK] IBM simulate a "brain" with 500 billion neurons and 100 trillion synapses
by drnickbone — 2012-11-21T22:23:26.193Z

Recent article in The New Yorker:

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2012/11/ibm-brain-simulation-compass.html

Here is the research report from IBM, with the simple title "10^14":

http://www.modha.org/blog/SC12/RJ10502.pdf

It's nothing like a real brain simulation, of course, but illustrates that hardware to do this is getting very close.

There is likely to be quite a long overhang between the hardware and the software...
Technical Universities in Europe: a Recommendation Thread
by Ritalin — 2012-11-21T18:25:21.938Z

I wish to transfer to a university in Europe, to complete my engineering formation. I thought it might be the opportunity to initiate a discussion on the merits of European technical schools, given how many people here have a STEM background, and have experienced the first-hand.

Which ones do you think are best at teaching? Which provide the best starting point, professionally? Which have the most productive, idealistic mood among the studentship? If you've been to several of schools, how do they compare to each other?

The floor is yours.
Meetup : LessWrong Montreal - Advanced Epistemology 101
by Paul_G — 2012-11-21T16:05:48.174Z

Discussion article for the meetup : LessWrong Montreal - Advanced Epistemology 101

WHEN:
26 November 2012 06:30:00PM (-0500)

WHERE:
655 avenue du president kennedy, H3A 3H9

Weekly Montreal meetup.

We'll be at the Broadway Cheesecake, hopefully upstairs (if it's finally opened up). We're going to be discussing the new sequence, Highly Advanced Epistemology 101 for Beginners, as many of us are relative newbies to Bayesian rationality.

Our focus will be the first post. Contact me if you're interested!

Discussion article for the meetup : LessWrong Montreal - Advanced Epistemology 101
Ideas needed for a Psychology experiment involving popular fiction (Movies mainly) and biases and heuristics
by Tenoke — 2012-11-21T14:34:11.779Z

I am conducting a simple experiment as my last year project for my BSc in Psychology. It is supposed to be a group project done largely under Supervision over a long period of time, but things took a different turn for me so I am making it on my own without almost any supervision as I convinced my Supervisor that I would rather not do anything in his field. Anyway I need ideas for the questionnaire that I need to develop for the study.

The information on my experiment bellow is directly copied (and written by me) from my Ethics Approval form:

1. Title of project.

The effect of popular fiction on aspirations, goals and inclinations

2. Purpose of project and its academic rationale.

The purpose of the project is to find whether popular fiction influences the kind of experiences we want. The basis for the study comes from the mere-exposure effect, the availability heuristic and the availability cascade. I hypothesize that due to their effects people are more likely to prefer experiences to which they have been exposed(due to the mere-exposure effect) by popular culture (in popular movies, tv shows, etc) and which spring to mind faster(the availability heuristic) than similar experiences which have not been taken from popular fiction.

3. Brief description of methods and measurements.

The participants will be given a Likert scale Questionnaire. The items on the questionnaire will be descriptions of experiences with half of them being taken from popular movies and TV shows and the other half will be description of similar kinds of experiences not taken from popular fiction. The participants will be asked to rate how much they want to have the experience and the scores for the popular movie items and the other items will be compared to test the hypothesis.

A simple example of two items on this list can be:

Swimming with dolphins.

and the counterexample

Riding a zebra.

This is obviously not a great example and I also need to justify why I have chosen an experience from a given book/movie so I decided to use rankings like the top 250 on imdb and the box of

...
Stop learning, start thinking [LINK]
by NancyLebovitz — 2012-11-21T14:32:20.506Z

Stop Learning, by Jacob Barnett. This is an 18 minute video, and I think there's a lot to be said for getting the material in the order given.

However, if you'd rather have text, here it is in rot13. Wnpbo Oneargg pbzrf bss nf naablvat. Ybhq, ohzcgvbhf, naq ynhtuf ng zbfg bs uvf bja wbxrf. Ur'f nyfb n zngu cebqvtl, naq unf nhgvfz. Ur gnyxf nobhg ubj ur jnf qvntabfrq nf orvat hanoyr gb yrnea gb gnyx, ohg orpnhfr ur unq gvzr gb guvax, ur fgnegrq rkcybevat zngu. Vg'f abg fb onq gb snvy svatre-cnvagvat. Ur gnyxf nobhg Arjgba naq Rvafgrva nf univat orra oybpxrq bss sebz yrneavat sbe n juvyr (cynthr dhnenagvar naq cngrag bssvpr erfcrpgviryl), fb gung gurl unq gvzr gb guvax. Ur erpbzzraqf gnxvat gvzr gb guvax nobhg jung lbh pner nobhg.

Would anyone happen to remember the alternate history story where the plague doesn't come to England, so Newton has professorial duties and never discovers anything?
Meetup : Melbourne, practical rationality
by matt — 2012-11-21T00:44:16.229Z

Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne, practical rationality

WHEN:
07 December 2012 07:00:00PM (+1100)

WHERE:
55 Walsh St West Melbourne 3003

Practical rationality. This meetup repeats on the 1st Friday of each month and is distinct from our social meetup on the 3rd Friday of each month.

Discussion: http://groups.google.com/group/melbourne-less-wrong

All welcome from 6:30pm. Call the phone number on the door and I'll let you in.

Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne, practical rationality
Meetup : Atlanta - Practical Rationality Meetup Session
by hankx7787 — 2012-11-20T23:01:59.536Z

Discussion article for the meetup : Atlanta - Practical Rationality Meetup Session

WHEN:
02 December 2012 05:00:00PM (-0500)

WHERE:
Atlanta, ga

Here are the event details! Please let me know if you have a different preferred location or other suggestions and I'll be happy to update:

Sunday, 12/2 @ 5pm

Send me a message or an email (my username at gmail) for the location.

RSVP is encouraged but not required. Newbies and non-LWers are welcome.

Here's my idea for how to run this session:

General introductions/chat, get to know you

Put up a blackboard and call out as many biases/fallacies/heuristics/techniques/scientific studies/other LWisms related to practical rationality that we can (and explain them or look them up quickly)

Discuss the various rationality games, pick one that sounds fun, and play. Repeat until done.

This session is newbie-friendly as we will basically be doing a review of all the background info in step 2 - so no experienced required to attend (!)

More experienced LW folks should review a little before coming to help fill up the blackboard. If anyone has board games and/or lots of dice, I think that would cover the only games that require materials.

Please let me know if you have any questions!

Discussion article for the meetup : Atlanta - Practical Rationality Meetup Session
Responses to questions on donating to 80k, GWWC, EAA and LYCS
by wdmacaskill — 2012-11-20T22:41:57.686Z

Giles, and some others, have asked questions about donating to one or more of CEA’s sub-organisations. In what follows, I address these questions. I felt it would be clearest for me to mainly cluster questions under general headings, rather than address the specific wording of every question. (Note: thanks to help from Ben Todd on this!)
A couple of clarifications

Centre for Effective Altruism is a legal entity that comprises 4 organisations: Giving What We Can, 80,000 Hours, Effective Animal Activism, and The Life You Can Save. EAA is formally still a sub-project of 80,000 Hours, but should be thought of as separate for accounting purposes and may well become a separate organisation. In the previous blog post I talked about GWWC and 80k only, but because there’s been interest, here I’ll discuss the other two as well, albeit more briefly.

Some numbers follow. These are true as of Nov 20th 2012 (or, rather, are best estimates as of that date), but are very likely to change in the near future. They should therefore be taken as illustrations merely.

Finally, because all the organisations that comprise CEA are young, there are certain policy issues that still have not been decided upon; and some that have been decided upon may change in the near future as we learn. Where possible, I have tried to flag which policies are as yet undecided.

What’s your expenditure?

Below are rough estimates for expenditure from start Q2 2012 (when we first took staff) until end Q4 2013 (our short-term fundraising horizon). All numbers are in thousands.

80k (basic): £118.8 = ~$190

80k (inc. some expansion): £139.1 = ~$220

GWWC (basic): £87.4 = ~$140

GWWC (inc. some expansion): £107.7 = ~$170

LYCS (basic): £47.88 = ~$76

EAA (basic): £32.76 = ~$52

The large majority of our expenditure is on staff. 80k (basic) comprises one full-time staff member from Q2 2012, two staff members working 0.4 time from Q2 2012, and one full-time staff member from Q1 2013. GWWC (basic) comprises one 5/8 staff member from Q2 2012, and two staff members working 0.6 time from Q2 2012. LYCS (basic) comprises one full-time staff member from Q2 2013, and some money earmarked for on-line marketing by one funder. EAA (basic) comprises one full-time staff member from Q1 2013. Across CEA, we typically employ one intern-year for every employee-year.

For both GWWC and 80k,...
Miracle Mineral Supplement
by Eliezer Yudkowsky — 2012-11-20T21:17:45.104Z

We can always use more case studies of insanity that aren't religion, right?

Well, Miracle Mineral Supplement is my new go-to example for Bad Things happening to people with low epistemic standards. "MMS" is a supposed cure for everything ranging from the common cold to HIV to cancer. I just saw it recommended in another Facebook thread to someone who was worried about malaria symptoms.

It's industrial-strength bleach. Literally just bleach. Usually drunk, sometimes injected, and yes, it often kills you. It is every bit as bad as it sounds if not worse.

This is beyond Poe's Law. Medieval blood draining via leeches was far more of an excusable error than this, they had far less evidence it was a bad idea. I think if I was trying to guess what was the dumbest alternative medicine on the planet, I still would not have guessed this low. My brain is still not pessimistic enough about human stupidity.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miracle_Mineral_Supplement