trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k huggingface dataset:
Effective altruism is self-recommending
by Benquo — 2017-04-21T18:37:49.111Z

A parent I know reports (some details anonymized):

Recently we bought my 3-year-old daughter a "behavior chart," in which she can earn stickers for achievements like not throwing tantrums, eating fruits and vegetables, and going to sleep on time. We successfully impressed on her that a major goal each day was to earn as many stickers as possible.

This morning, though, I found her just plastering her entire behavior chart with stickers. She genuinely seemed to think I'd be proud of how many stickers she now had.

The Effective Altruism movement has now entered this extremely cute stage of cognitive development. EA is more than three years old, but institutions age differently than individuals.

What is a confidence game?

In 2009, investment manager and con artist Bernie Madoff pled guilty to running a massive fraud, with $50 billion in fake return on investment, having outright embezzled around $18 billion out of the $36 billion investors put into the fund. Only a couple of years earlier, when my grandfather was still alive, I remember him telling me about how Madoff was a genius, getting his investors a consistent high return, and about how he wished he could be in on it, but Madoff wasn't accepting additional investors.

What Madoff was running was a classic Ponzi scheme. Investors gave him money, and he told them that he'd gotten them an exceptionally high return on investment, when in fact he had not. But because he promised to be able to do it again, his investors mostly reinvested their money, and more people were excited about getting in on the deal. There was more than enough money to cover the few people who wanted to take money out of this amazing opportunity.

Ponzi schemes, pyramid schemes, and speculative bubbles are all situations in investors' expected profits are paid out from the money paid in by new investors, instead of any independently profitable venture. Ponzi schemes are centrally managed – the person running the scheme represents it to investors as legitimate, and takes responsibility for finding new investors and paying off old ones. In pyramid schemes such as multi-level-marketing and chain letters, each generation of investor recruits new investors and profits from them. In speculative bubbles, there is no formal structure propping up the scheme, only a common, mutually reinforcing ...
Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Projects
by rocurley — 2017-04-21T03:13:27.101Z

Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Projects

WHEN:
24 April 2017 06:15:00PM (-0700)

WHERE:
1769 15th St, San Francisco, CA 94103-3333, United States

We’ll be meeting to work on projects!

Near the beginning, we’ll go around and talk about what we’ll be working on, then do a couple of pomodoros. At some point we’ll break into general conversations and socializing.

For help getting into the building, please call (or text, with a likely-somewhat-slower response rate): 301-458-0764.

Format:

We meet and start hanging out at 6:15, but don’t officially start doing the meetup topic until 6:45-7 to accommodate stragglers. Usually there is a food order that goes out before we start the meetup topic.

About these meetups:

The mission of the SF LessWrong meetup is to provide a fun, low-key social space with some structured interaction, where new and non-new community members can mingle and have interesting conversations. Everyone is welcome.

We explicitly encourage people to split off from the main conversation or diverge from the topic if that would be more fun for them (moving side conversations into a separate part of the space if appropriate). Meetup topics are here as a tool to facilitate fun interaction, and we certainly don’t want them to inhibit it.

Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Projects
Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Slate Star Codex
by RobinZ — 2017-04-20T14:57:54.287Z

Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Slate Star Codex

WHEN:
23 April 2017 03:30:00PM (-0400)

WHERE:
Donald W. Reynolds Center for American Art and Portraiture

This week, we will be meeting in the courtyard to discuss the blog Slate Star Codex and essays therefrom.

Upcoming meetups:

Apr. 30: Fun & Games

May 7: Regression to the Mean

Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Slate Star Codex
Meetup : Chicago Applied Rationality Training
by mingyuan — 2017-04-20T13:32:02.347Z

Discussion article for the meetup : Chicago Applied Rationality Training

WHEN:
23 April 2017 01:00:00PM (-0500)

WHERE:
Harper Memorial Library Room 148, 1116 E 59th St, Chicago, IL 60637

The Chicago rationality group meets every Sunday from 1-3 PM in Room 148 of Harper Memorial Library. Though we meet on the University of Chicago campus, anyone is welcome to attend.

More applied rationality training this Sunday! At this week's meeting I'll be teaching Factoring, which is fun and easy and super useful! Don't worry if you missed the last meeting; I can get newcomers caught up during the lesson.

If you are planning to come to this week's meeting, please take ten or so minutes to build a 'bugs list' - a list of problems in your life that we'll target with the applied rationality techniques. The generic prompt is "Everything would be perfect in my life, and I would be the best possible version of myself, except that… [bug].”

Request to be added to our Google Group if you're interested in rationality-related events in the Chicago area and I'll approve you!

Discussion article for the meetup : Chicago Applied Rationality Training
An OpenAI board seat is surprisingly expensive
by Benquo — 2017-04-19T09:05:04.032Z

The Open Philanthropy Project recently bought a seat on the board of the billion-dollar nonprofit AI research organization OpenAI for $30 million. Some people have said that this was surprisingly cheap, because the price in dollars was such a low share of OpenAI's eventual endowment: 3%.

To the contrary, this seat on OpenAI's board is very expensive, not because the nominal price is high, but precisely because it is so low.

If OpenAI hasn’t extracted a meaningful-to-it amount of money, then it follows that it is getting something other than money out of the deal. The obvious thing it is getting is buy-in for OpenAI as an AI safety and capacity venture. In exchange for a board seat, the Open Philanthropy Project is aligning itself socially with OpenAI, by taking the position of a material supporter of the project. The important thing is mutual validation, and a nominal donation just large enough to neg the other AI safety organizations supported by the Open Philanthropy Project is simply a customary part of the ritual.

By my count, the grant is larger than all the Open Philanthropy Project's other AI safety grants combined.

(Cross-posted at my personal blog.)
An inquiry into memory of humans
by Elo — 2017-04-19T07:02:19.866Z

Cross posted from: http://bearlamp.com.au/an-inquiry-into-memory-of-humans/

In trying to understand how my memory for people works, I am trying to investigate in what order my people semantic network is arranged.

For each exercise that follows you will need to think of a different person to avoid priming yourself with the people you have already thought of.

Think of a person you know. What comes to mind to represent them? Is it their name? Is it their face? Is it some other sensory or other detail?

Think of a face of a person you know. What else comes to mind? Can you think of a person’s face without other details like names coming up. How about without their hair. Try this for 3 or more people you know.

Think of a person who has a characteristic voice. Can you represent the idea of this person without linking to other details of this person? without their face? Without their name? What about a radio presenter who’s face you have never seen? Can you represent their voice without their face? Without their name?

Think of a person who you can recognise by a characteristic touch. Think of someone’s handshake that you remember. Can you represent the concept of the person via handshake alone? Can you hold off from recalling their name?

Think of a person you can recall that has worn black clothing. Someone who has worn white clothing. Are they an idea alone? Or is it hard to describe without their name?

Think of someone who you can remember singing. Can you remember their singing selves without the face? Without the name?

Think of a person’s name. Do you know who this person is without their face? Do you know what they sound like without knowing what they look like? How do you navigate from one detail to another?

Think of a person who is particularly spiritual. Can you represent who they are without bringing their name to mind?

I could go on but I leave the rest as an exercise to the reader to make up and experiment with a few more examples. In smells, and in any other sensory experiences, in methods of dividing people. Tall, short, grumpy…

So What?

Memory is this weird thing. If you want to know how to take the most advantage of it, you need to know how it ...
Meetup : Games in Kocherga club: Fallacymania, Tower of Chaos, Scientific Discovery
by Alexander230 — 2017-04-18T21:46:20.641Z

Discussion article for the meetup : Games in Kocherga club: Fallacymania, Tower of Chaos, Scientific Discovery

WHEN:
26 April 2017 07:40:00PM (+0300)

WHERE:
Moscow, B.Dorogomilovskaya, 5-2

Welcome to Moscow LW community makeshift games! In that games, some rationality skills are involved, so you can practise while you playing!

Fallacymania: it is a game where you guess logical fallacies in arguments, or practise using logical fallacies yourself (depending on team in which you will be).

Tower of Chaos: funny game with guessing the rules of human placement on a Twister mat.

Scientific Discovery: modified version of Zendo with simultaneous turns for all players.

Details about the games: http://goo.gl/Mz2i94

Come to antikafe "Kocherga", ul.B.Dorogomilovskaya, 5-2. The map is here: http://kocherga-club.ru/#contacts . Nearest metro station is Kievskaya. If you are lost, call Sasha at +7-905-527-30-82.

Games begin at 19:40, the length is 3 hours.

Discussion article for the meetup : Games in Kocherga club: Fallacymania, Tower of Chaos, Scientific Discovery
Meetup : Denver Area LW May Meetup
by PonchoPal — 2017-04-18T20:13:18.160Z

Discussion article for the meetup : Denver Area LW May Meetup

WHEN:
02 May 2017 07:00:00PM (-0600)

WHERE:
4955 South Ulster Street #103, Denver, CO

Casual meetup at the usual time and place. We typically meet in the back room, unless the weather is nice enough to be outside.

Discussion article for the meetup : Denver Area LW May Meetup
April '17 I Care About Thread
by MaryCh — 2017-04-18T14:08:47.042Z

As an experiment, here's a thread for people to post about things they care about. Specifically, for things that are possible to contribute to, in some way, and preferably, to invite others to join.

Mine is buying and donating highschool textbooks to schools in the 'grey zone' of Ukraine (where the war kinda isn't fought, but few people would be surprised if it started.) I don't deliver them myself, though.

What's yours?
Open thread, Apr. 17 - Apr. 23, 2017
by gilch — 2017-04-18T02:47:46.389Z

This is the (late) weekly open thread. See the tag. You'd think we could automate this. The traditional boilerplate follows.

If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, then it goes here.

Notes for future OT posters:

1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.

2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page before posting.)

3. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.

4. Unflag the two options "Notify me of new top level comments on this article" and "Make this post available under..." before submitting.
Meetup : First Medellin, Colombia Meetup
by jpulgarin — 2017-04-17T23:03:56.274Z

Discussion article for the meetup : First Medellin, Colombia Meetup

WHEN:
06 May 2017 06:00:00PM (-0500)

WHERE:
Starbucks Coffee One Plaza, Medellin

In the spirit of http://lesswrong.com/lw/bc2/setting_up_lw_meetups_in_unlikely_places_positive/, I'm holding a meetup in Medellin, Colombia. I've been living here for 2 years now, and want to see if there are any other LW readers.

It will be held at the Starbucks located in the "One Plaza" office building at 6pm on Saturday, May 6th. I will have a copy of 'Quantum Computing Since Democritus' at my table for easy identification, and commit to being at Starbucks until 7pm even if nobody shows up.

Discussion article for the meetup : First Medellin, Colombia Meetup
Two Major Obstacles for Logical Inductor Decision Theory
by Scott Garrabrant — 2017-04-17T21:10:55.000Z

In this post, I describe two major obstacles for logical inductor decision theory: untaken actions are not observable and no updatelessness for computations. I will concretely describe both of these problems in a logical inductor framework, but I believe that both issues are general enough to transcend that framework.

Obstacle 1: Untaken Actions are not Observable

Consider the following formalization of the 5 and 10 problem:

Let {Pn} is a logical inductor. Let An be an agent which uses this logical inductor, to output either 5 or 10 as follows. The utility function Un for agent An is simply Un=An/10, and the source code for agent An is given by
An={5if EPnn(Un|An=5)>EPnn(Un|An=10)10otherwise.

Ideally, we would be able to say something like limn→∞An=10. Unfortunately, this is not the case. There exists a logical inductor such that limn→∞An=5. Consider a construction of a logical inductor similar to the one in the paper, but for which there is a single trader that starts with most of the wealth. This trader spends all of its wealth on conditional contracts forcing EPnn(Un|An=5)∼.5 and EPnn(Un|An=10)∼0. Note that the bets made conditioned on An=5 are accurate, while the bets made conditioned on An=10 do not matter, since the condition will be false. (No other trader will have enough wealth to substantially change the expectations). This trader will therefore lose no money, and be able to do the same thing again next round. (This is assuming that the value of A_n and U_n are computed in time for round n+1 of the deductive process. If this is not the case, we could do the same trick on a subsequence with this property.)

This same phenomenon has been observed in many other contexts. The spurious counterfactuals that can arise in proof based systems are another manifestation of the same problem.

One attempt at a fix is epsilon exploration. (The analogous fix in the proof based world is the chicken rule) Here, you take every possible action with probability ε. Then, when conditioning on taking an action you normally wouldn't take, you will have some data on what happened when simpler versions of yourself randomly explored and took that action. The epsilon exploration version of the above agent is
An=⎧⎪
⎪
⎪⎨⎪
⎪
⎪⎩

...
New discussion platform for Less Wrong community (Mastodon instance)
by rayalez — 2017-04-17T16:00:07.569Z

Hey, everyone! I have created a new discussion platform for Less Wrong:

https://lesswrong.io/

My goal for this project is to revitalize our community, and create a platform for rational conversations about the current events and new ideas. I'm hoping that in this format, we will have more active discussion, and get to know each other better.

The site is built using Mastodon - a new, open source, decentralized social networking platform that is currently taking off.
Meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - May 2017
by luminosity — 2017-04-17T01:03:27.412Z

Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - May 2017

WHEN:
07 May 2017 04:00:00PM (+1000)

WHERE:
10 Shepherd Street, Chippendale

Come improve your plans, motivation and other rationality skills at our monthly dojo. Dinner afterwards with the group nearby.

Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - May 2017
Straw Hufflepuffs and Lone Heroes
by Raemon — 2017-04-16T23:48:55.402Z

I was hoping the next Project Hufflepuff post would involve more "explain concretely what I think we should do", but as it turns out I'm still hashing out some thoughts about that. In the meanwhile, this is the post I actually have ready to go, which is as good as any to post for now.

Epistemic Status: Mythmaking. This is tailored for the sort of person for whom the "Lone Hero" mindset is attractive. If that isn't something you're concerned with and this post feels irrelevant or missing some important things, note that my vision for Project Hufflepuff has multiple facets and I expect different people to approach it in different ways.

For good or for ill, the founding mythology of our community is a Harry Potter fanfiction.

This has a few ramifications I’ll delve into at some point, but the most pertinent bit is: for a community to change itself, the impulse to change needs to come from within the community. I think it’s easier to build change off of stories that are already a part of our cultural identity.*

* with an understanding that maybe part of the problem is that our cultural identity needs to change, or be more accessible, but I’m running with this mythos for the time being.

In J.K Rowling’s original Harry Potter story, Hufflepuffs are treated like “generic background characters” at best and as a joke at worst. All the main characters are Gryffindors, courageous and true. All the bad guys are Slytherin. And this is strange - Rowling clearly was setting out to create a complex world with nuanced virtues and vices. But it almost seems to me like Rowling’s story takes place in an alternate, explicitly “Pro-Gryffindor propaganda” universe instead of the “real” Harry Potter world.

People have trouble taking Hufflepuff seriously, because they’ve never actually seen the real thing - only lame, strawman caricatures.

Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality is… well, Pro-Ravenclaw propaganda. But part of being Ravenclaw is trying to understand things, and to use that knowledge. Eliezer makes an earnest effort to steelman each house. What wisdom does it offer that actually makes sense? What virtues does it cultivate that are rare and valuable?

When Harry goes under the sorting hat, it actually tries to convince him not to go into Ravenclaw, and specifically pushes towards Hufflepuff House:

Where would I go, if not Ravenclaw?

"A

...
LessWrong analytics (February 2009 to January 2017)
by riceissa — 2017-04-16T22:45:35.807Z

Table of contents

Introduction

Pageviews and sessions

Top posts

Source code

Further reading

Acknowledgments

Introduction

In January 2017, Vipul Naik obtained Google Analytics daily sessions and pageviews data for LessWrong from Kaj Sotala. Vipul asked me to write a short post giving an overview of the data, so here it is.

This post covers just the basics. Vipul and I are eager to hear thoughts on what sort of deeper analysis people are interested in; we may incorporate these ideas in future posts.

Pageviews and sessions

The data for both sessions and pageviews span from February 26, 2009 to January 3, 2017. LessWrong seems to have launched in February 2009, so this is close to the full duration for which LessWrong has existed.

Pageviews plot:

Total pageviews recorded by Google Analytics for this period is 52.2 million.

Sessions plot:

Total sessions recorded by Google Analytics for this period is 19.7 million.

Both plots end with an upward swing, coinciding with the effort to revive LessWrong that began in late November 2016. However, as of early January 2017 (the latest period for which we have data) the scale of any recent increase in LessWrong usage is small in the context of the general decline starting in early 2012.

Top posts

The top 20 posts of all time (by total pageviews), with pageviews and unique pageviews rounded to the nearest thousand, are as follows:

Title	Pageviews (thousands)	Unique Pageviews (thousands)

Don’t Get Offended
681
128

How to Be Happy
551
482

How to Beat Procrastination
378
342

The Best Textbooks on Every Subject
266
233

Do you have High-Functioning Asperger’s Syndrome?
188
168

Superhero Bias
169
154

The Quantum Physics Sequence
157
130

Bayesian Judo
140
126

An Alien God
125
113

An Intuitive Explanation of Quantum Mechanics
123
106

Three Worlds Collide (0/8)
121
93

Bayes’ Theorem Illustrated (My Way)
121
112

9/26 is Petrov Day
121
115

The Baby-Eating Aliens (1/8)
109
98

The noncentral fallacy - the worst argument in the world?
107
99

Advanced Placement exam cutoffs and superficial knowledge over deep knowledge
107
94

Guessing the Teacher’s Password
102
96

The Fun Theory Sequence
102
90

Optimal Employment
102
97

Ugh fields
95
86

Note that Google Analytics reports are subject to sampling when the number of sessions is large (as it is here) so the input numbers are not exact. More det...
Towards a More Sophisticated Understanding of Myth and Religion (?)
by Erfeyah — 2017-04-16T20:31:21.545Z

Lately I have been investigating the work of Jordan Peterson which I have found to be of great value. Indeed, I have to admit that I am being persuaded but trying to keep a critical mind and balance between doubt and belief.

I thought this is a strong argument for a more sophisticated understanding of the function of religion that would be quite fun to throw to the LessWrong community for an attempt to dismantle ;)

You can find his lectures online on YouTube. The 'Maps of Meaning' series is a fairly detailed exposition of the concepts. For a quick taste you can watch the Joe Rogan podcast with him (they talk a bit of religion in the last hour or so) though in this kind of format you inevitably only get a sketch.

Have fun!
United We Blame
by Zvi — 2017-04-16T11:40:58.000Z

Blame Index Funds: Overbooking and Cross Selling (first story)

Blame The Law: The Deeper Scandal of That Brutal United Video

Blame The Culture of Law Enforcement in Aviation:The Real Reason a Man Was Dragged Off That United Flight and How To Stop It From Happening Again

Blame The Price Cap: A Proposed Regulation, Delta Authorizes Volunteer Offers Up to 10K

Blame Industry Consolidation: The Airline Industry Is a Starving Giant Gnawing At Our Ecnomy

Blame United’s PR Department: United Airlines Offers Refunds as Outrage at a Violent Removal Continues (NY Times, but with that title, could it be anyone else?)

Blame And Sue United: Michaela Aleach on Twitter

Blame The Cult of Low Prices: In Brief: A United Airlines Theory

Don’t Blame Capitalism, Blame Lack of Capitalism: United Is Why People Hate Capitalism

Don’t Blame, Instead Ask Who Blamed Who And Why: It’s Time For Some Game Theory, United Airlines Edition (Marginal Revolution)

Blame YOU, Basically: Why Airlines Are Terrible (Thanks, Vox!)

Blame Reporters and Mangement: United Passenger “Removal”: A Reporting And Management Fail

Blame Mostly Unrelated Bad Airline Reporting, Not For This, Just In General: I’m All Out of Clever

No, Seriously, Blame United, They’re the Worst: How United Turned the Friendly Skies Into a Flying Hellscape, United Airlines Made Me Abandon My Mobility Device At the Gate, and honestly I could go on for a while.

Part 1: United Is The Worst

It is true. United Airlines is the worst. This is not a recent development, nor is it something we learned in the past week. United Airlines has been Brita-level worst for years. Spirit Airlines may offer worse service, but it has the common decency not to pretend it is anything but the slimeball at-your-own-risk-on-every-level experience. I can respect that. United’s slogan is “come fly the friendly skies.” My ears interpret that like they do the Domino’s ad that tells me I have thirty minutes: As a threat. I was already willing to pay a substantial premium to avoid United. If anything, that makes this a positive for my impressions of United, since they have gone from the airline everyone privately knows is awful to the airline for whom its awfulness is common knowledge.

Scope insensitivity is important to keep in mind, as is the impact of video. One passenger was forcibly removed from one plan...