Spreadsheet: 1a08a552-fce3-4b88-9065-52e8a49a6a84
Sheet: Sheet1

Unnamed: 0 | Arctic Council Task Force       on Short-Lived Climate Forcers | Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in Climate    [IGAC/SPARC] | LRTAP           Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants | UNEP Assessment of Black Carbon and [NAME]
Web site | http://arctic-council.org/ | http://www.igac.noaa.gov/ | http://www.htap.org/ | http://www.unep.org/
Schedule | 11/09: draft done 11/10: SAO update   4/11:  final | Ap-May:  draft done  Sum 2011:  publish | 4/26: external review  5/31:  final draft   6/14-16 meeting  August 2010:  final | Late 2010:  final
Study Contacts | [NAME] (EPA)          [NAME] (Norway) | [NAME] (Illinois) Piers Foster (Leeds) [NAME] (NOAA) | [NAME] (EPA) [EMAIL]  [NAME] (EC) | [NAME] (NASA)    Ramanathan (Scripps)
Pollutants | BC, CH4, & O3 | BC | PM (including BC), [NAME], Hg, POPs | BC, CH4, & O3
Impacts | 1) Arctic climate,                  2) Public health | Climate | 1) Climate                   2) Public health,        3) Ecosystem           4) Food Security | 1) Climate                   2) Public health,      3) Ecosystem           4) Food Security
Geography | 8 Arctic Council countries.             May include transport from non-Arctic regions. | Global | Northern Hemisphere | Global
Overview | Draws from current science on BC, ozone and methane                          to analyze how different mitigation strategies may benefit the Arctic. | Assessment of the state of the science on the magnitude of BC's effect on climate, taking into account its various effects (direct [NAME], cloud and surface albedo effects) and co-emissions. | Analyzes and summarizes state of science on pollution transport (ozone, aerosols, mercury, POPs) and impacts on human health, environment and radiative forcing. | Assessment of the emissions, physical science, impacts and policy options regarding BC/O3. Analyzes costs and benefits of mitigation options and discuss different scenarios
BC Definition and Measurement | Bond (2004) uses a definition that classifies BC as those particles that have an absorption efficiency of 7 m2/g at 550 nm incident radiation.  Some inventories use “elemental” carbon as a proxy for BC: this term specifically refers to the carbonaceous component that does not oxidize at low temperatures. | ? | No | Yes
Emission Inventories | The major sources of BC in the eight Arctic Council nations are diesel transport and open burning (both agricultural burning and wildfires).    Global BC & OC from Bond 2004; Per Arctic nation BC & OC and Per lattitude & sector for 2000 from Bond; Three U.S. inventories of BC and two U.S. inventories of OC (Streets et al. for the year 1996, Battye et al. (2002) for the year 2000, and the EPA for the year 2001). | Global inventories and uncertainties, by sector. | Current emissions trends (1990-2005); uncertainties | Assessment will attribute impacts to emissions, including precursor emissions, by activity and location
Emission Projections | Streets (2004) to 2050; GAINES to 2030; EPA to 2020; EPA-MOVES to 2040 | ? | Yes | ?
Forcings and  Metrics | Central estimates of BC GWP range from about 500 to about 1300. | Analyzes various forcing metrics both globally and regionally. | ? | Forcing and forcing efficiency of co-emitted species.  GWP, GTP, regional forcing and RF (TOA)  compared to GHGs for BC and O3.  Indirect effects include BC/ice cloud.
Forcings (Non-Radiative) | ? | Precipitation, Temperature | ? | Temperature
Impacts on Ecosystems and Food | No | No | Yes | Yes
Mitigation Measures | Primarily recommend diesel engine retrofits with particulate diesel filters and biomass burning measures (e.g., management of springtime burning). | ? | ? | Discuss different scenarios for the future depending on decisions taken today.
Mitigation: Cost-Effectiveness | 1) Particulate filter retrofits of the pre-2007 U.S. diesel fleet could yield, about 66,000 tons of BC reduction over the lifetime of the vehicles for less than $50,000 dollars per ton BC.                  2) Agricultural burning of about 28,000 tons of BC can be reduced for about $15,000 per ton BC in the US | Summarize AMAP mitigation analysis efforts. | Yes | Analyze costs and benefits of mitigation options and
Mitigation: Health Benefits | Describes general PM and BC health impacts. Significant mortality and morbidity could be averted due to air quality benefits from particulate emission reductions. | ? | ? | ?
Mitigation: Net Impacts on Climate | 1) There may be a net Arctic climatic benefit to controlling agricultural burning in high northern latitudes, especially during the spring melt season, since  the cooling properties of organic carbon loading are not as significant over snow-covered regions.      2) Aerosol emissions from shipping have had a net cooling influence due to a high proportion of SO2 emissions and a reduced effect for BC over low-albedo oceans. | Model net RF from BC mitigation, including co-emitted pollutants. | ? | Analyze costs and benefits of mitigation options.
Models | Draws from AR4 and other studies, including Quinn et al. (2008), [NAME] et [NAME] (2009), [NAME] et [NAME]. (2007), [NAME] (2009) | Model differences, models/observations, net RF with co-emitted pollutants; warm and cold clouds; snow/ice; efficacy; direct, indirect and semi-direct effects. | Impact of long-range transport on RF by [NAME] and PM, regionally.       Inverse modeling of emissions from satellite data sets. FLEXPART-based source attribution studies.  Source attribution based on various analyses of data correlations.  Lagrangian treatment of plume processing and comparison with observations.  Relationship to CTM results. | IIASA modeling will attribute impacts to emissions by activity and location. Summary of AR4 and other results.
Policy | There is sufficient evidence to support the reduction of BC emissions from diesel, burning and marine as a means to slow the rate of warming in the Arctic over the next few decades. | Addresses key policy-relevant issues, such as how different metrics may be developed for policy applications.  [NAME] what (if any) decisions are justified now. | ? | Analysis of cost & benefits of emission reduction scenarios for key sectors by region.  Identify technological and policy options for different regions of the world and mechanisms for international action
Table Information From: | 11/3/09 draft report | 7/30/09 Excel worksheet | 11/4/09 draft outline on www.htap.org | UNEP 2/25/10 Extended Outline (“Draft Zero”)
New Modeling? | Yes | No | Yes | Yes
Modelers/ Models | [NAME] (Univ. of Michigan), [NAME] (NASA GISS), CICERO |  | Multiple chemical transport models | [NAME] (NASA GISS), [NAME] (JRC)
BC Emissions | Bond et al. (2007) for 2000? |  | Chosen by modelers | IIASA
Scenarios | Reduce emissions from all 8 AC countrils by 20, 50, 75% for: fossil fuel BC, fossil fuel OC, biofuel BC, biofuel OC, open biomass BC, open biomass OC. Conduct same runs for all grid points north of 40N, and for latitudinal bands north of 40N (Arctic, 60N, 50N, 40N). Special case for potential emission increase from shipping: Increase shipping BC and co-emissions of OC north of 60N according to shipping emissions projected to 2050 |  | SR2=20% global CH4 reduction; SR3-SR5=individual 20% Nox, VOC, CO reductions in 4 major regions (NA, EU, EA, SA); [NAME] combined 20% Nox, VOC, CO reductions in 4 major regions; SR6z=anthropogenic aerosols and gases zeroed out individually in NA, EU, EA, SA; SR6d=dust emissions zeroed out individually in North Africa, Middle East, Asia; SR6b=biomass burning emissions zeroed out individually in North American boreal, Eurasia boreal, mid- and low- latitudinal regions of North America, and Africa-Asia above the equator | 15 mitigation measures chosen by GWP100 of CH4, BC, OC, CO, SO2 emission changes. 3 groups of measures: 1) technical measures for CH4; 2) technical measures for BC; 3) non-technical measures for BC
Modeling Outcomes | Concentration, RF (direct, some indirect, snow/ice) |  | Concentration/long-range transport, PM2.5 mortality, deposition, Arctic concentrations, ecosystems, others? | Concentration, RF (direct), mortality