Spreadsheet: 51fcb3d9-04d8-441a-af69-6172a9a97adb
Sheet: HAL - CAA - ip

 | Heathrow - CAA Allowance - April 2013 - Initial Proposals
 | This sheet shows the CAA's initial proposals for HAL's opex allowance over Q6.
 | Bottom Up Projections
 | CAA March 2013 HAL Projections | Q5 |  |  |  |  | Q5+1 | Q6 |  |  |  |  |  |  | CAA March 2013 HAL Projections - Summary Q5+1 |  |  |  |  |  | CAA March 2013 HAL Projections - Summary Q6
 | £m nominal | 2008/09 | 2009/10 | 2010/11 | 2011/12 | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 | 2016/17 | 2017/18 | 2018/19 |  |  | £m nominal | Total Q5+1 | % of Total | CAGR (Q5+1) | Opex per Pax |  | £m nominal | Total Q6 | % of Total | CAGR (Q6) | Opex per Pax | Relative to 2011/12
 | Passengers (m) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Passengers (m) |  |  |  |  |  | Passengers (m)
 | Total IBP | 940.0521780593303 | 949.7525288648206 | 944.1279247982017 | 993.3089472429415 | 1064 | 1056.415211200032 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Total IBP |  |  |  |  |  | Total IBP
 | Total FBP | 957.9158175625855 | 984.5523682454968 | 979.406369158386 | 1029.5 | 1074.504768091008 | 1103.878203824155 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Total FBP |  |  |  |  |  | Total FBP
 | Efficiency Estimate (Low Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Efficiency Estimate (Low Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  | Efficiency Estimate (Low Stretch)
 | Efficiency Estimate (Mid Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Efficiency Estimate (Mid Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  | Efficiency Estimate (Mid Stretch)
 | Efficiency Estimate (High Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Efficiency Estimate (High Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  | Efficiency Estimate (High Stretch)
 | [NAME] (Low Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] (Low Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] (Low Stretch)
 | [NAME] (Mid Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] (Mid Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] (Mid Stretch)
 | [NAME] (High Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] (High Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] (High Stretch)
 | Opex per pax IBP
 | Opex per pax FBP
 | Opex per pax (Low Stretch)
 | Opex per pax (Mid Stretch)
 | Opex per pax (High Stretch)
 | Price Base Conversion 11/12 to Nominal | 0.90909729293213 | 0.90909729293213 | 0.9542150907622624 | 1 | 1.030897791510129 | 1.051212459598282 | 1.083448201225268 | 1.120013184768307 | 1.153613580311357 | 1.188221987720697 | 1.223868647352318
 | CAA March 2013 HAL Projections | Q5 |  |  |  |  | Q5+1 | Q6 |  |  |  |  |  |  | CAA March 2013 HAL Projections - Summary Q5+1 |  |  |  |  |  | CAA March 2013 HAL Projections - Summary Q6
 | £m 2011/12 prices | 2008/09 | 2009/10 | 2010/11 | 2011/12 | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 | 2016/17 | 2017/18 | 2018/19 |  |  | £m 2011/12 prices | Total Q5+1 | % of FBP | CAGR (Q5+1) | Opex per Pax |  | £m 2011/12 prices | Total Q6 | % of FBP | CAGR (Q6) | Opex per Pax | Relative to 2011/12
 | Passengers (m) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Passengers (m) |  |  |  |  |  | Passengers (m)
 | Total IBP |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Total IBP |  |  |  |  |  | Total IBP
 | Total FBP |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Total FBP |  |  |  |  |  | Total FBP
 | Profile of CU Efficiency |  |  |  |  |  |  | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1
 | Efficiency Estimate (Low Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Efficiency Estimate (Low Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  | Efficiency Estimate (Low Stretch)
 | Efficiency Estimate (Mid Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Efficiency Estimate (Mid Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  | Efficiency Estimate (Mid Stretch)
 | Efficiency Estimate (High Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Efficiency Estimate (High Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  | Efficiency Estimate (High Stretch)
 | [NAME] (Low Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] (Low Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] (Low Stretch)
 | [NAME] (Mid Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] (Mid Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] (Mid Stretch)
 | [NAME] (High Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] (High Stretch) |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] (High Stretch)
 | Opex per pax IBP
 | Opex per pax FBP
 | Opex per pax (Low Stretch)
 | Opex per pax (Mid Stretch)
 | Opex per pax (High Stretch)
 | Charts
 | Analysis of Efficiency in Mid Stretch Scenario
 |  | Q5 |  |  |  |  | Q5+1 | Q6 |  |  |  |  |  | Q6 Total | %
 | 2011/12 prices | 2008/09 | 2009/10 | 2010/11 | 2011/12 | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 | 2016/17 | 2017/18 | 2018/19
 | FBP |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | na
 | Other Opex
 | MandA
 | Central Services
 | Wage efficiency
 | Pension Efficiency
 | Frontier shift
 | Total
 | CAA |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | na
 |  | Q5 |  |  |  |  | Q5+1 | Q6 |  |  |  |  |  | Total | %
 |  | 2008/09 | 2009/10 | 2010/11 | 2011/12 | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 | 2016/17 | 2017/18 | 2018/19
 | 2011/12 prices
 | Frontier shift |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | -21.22628758867359 | 0.0694953418158036
 | Catch up |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | -223.5083938455662 | 0.7317714962689581
 | Pessimistic forecasts |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | -60.7 | 0.1987331619152383
 | Total |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | -305.4346814342398 | 1
 | Breakdown
 | [NAME] of bottom up mid point estimate | IBP | FBP | Wage efficiency | Other opex | M and A | Frontier shift | Pension efficiency | Central support | CAA | BA
 | IBP | 5304.114573754301
 | FBP |  | 5233.999999999999 | 5153.886171080348 | 5076.306171080348 | 5048.086171080347 | 5026.859883491674 | 5016.791606154432 | 5016.791606154432
 | Wage efficiency |  |  | 80.11382891965108
 | Other opex |  |  |  | 77.57999999999998
 | M and A |  |  |  |  | 28.22
 | Frontier shift |  |  |  |  |  | 21.22628758867359
 | Pension efficiency |  |  |  |  |  |  | 10.06827733724159
 | Central support |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 0
 | CAA |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 5016.791606154433
 | BA |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 4048.121971322503
 | End