Spreadsheet: 21ee2ce6-380a-4965-93ea-91f05fc64c6b
Sheet: Sheet1

Table 6 -- ERS Sugar and Sweetener Outlook projection model of U.S. sugar deliveries for human consumption for 2011/12 and 2012/13 | Unnamed: 1 | Unnamed: 2 | Unnamed: 3 | Unnamed: 4 | Unnamed: 5
Model coefficients
 | Symbols | Total deliveries (I) | Beet deliveries (II) | Cane deliveries (III) | Direct Cons. Imports (IV)
Constant | A | 781033.042975 | 406288.66177 | 553052.787588 | Residual = I - (II+III)
Shifter | B | -90308.4239445 | 0 | 30048.6287267
Trend (value in FY 2012) 1/ | C | 335070.2007177 | 0 | 0
Beet deliveries | D | 0 | 0 | -0.203458960628
Oct | E | 0 | 0 | 0
Nov | F | -94688.9740195 | -44193.5217803 | -27050.1558339
Dec | G | -186952.846826 | -84088.9963747 | -90390.4351823
Jan | H | -191979.112923 | -66166.1196209 | -104155.538349
Feb | I | -199647.475953 | -68310.8167704 | -103707.794586
Mar | J | -59588.1999908 | -23031.5294445 | -19475.1011215
Apr | K | -121655.685817 | -40605.3615607 | -62985.0007093
May | L | -88856.5667256 | -19866.1353174 | -37813.1669331
Jun | M | -64464.7415654 | 0 | -19954.0338481
Jul | N | -74946.3278927 | -20445.468291 | -40905.1950112
Aug | O | 0 | 0 | 0
Sept | P | 0 | 0 | 0
2011/12:   Model projections of monthly deliveries: total, beet sugar, cane sugar, and direct consumption imports (short tons, raw value).
Delivery months | [NAME] | Total deliveries (I) | Beet deliveries (II) | Cane deliveries (III) | Direct Cons. Imports (IV) 2/
Oct | A+B+C+D*(II)+E | 1163418 | 381153 | 524060 | 258205
Nov | A+B+C+D*(II)+F | 803147 | 361345 | 485687 | -43885
Dec | A+B+C+D*(II)+G | 848655 | 320535 | 430691 | 97429
Jan | [NAME] | 808677 | 351813 | 414483 | 42381
Feb | A+B+C+D*(II)+J | 875796 | 365106 | 441360 | 69330
Mar | A+B+C+D*(II)+J | 992433 | 397538 | 503895 | 91000
Apr | [NAME] | 904139.1339312 | 365683.3002093 | 445714.8714257989 | 92740.96229610115
May | A+B+C+D*(II)+L | 936938.2530226 | 386422.5264526 | 466667.1237863081 | 83848.60278369184
Jun | A+B+C+D*(II)+M | 961330.0781828 | 406288.66177 | 480484.3136279347 | 74557.1027848653
Jul | A+B+C+D*(II)+N | 950848.4918555 | 385843.193479 | 463692.9661928742 | 101312.3321836258
Aug | A+B+C+D*(II)+O | 1025794.8197482 | 406288.66177 | 500438.3474760347 | 119067.8105021653
Sept | A+B+C+D*(II)+P | 1025794.8197482 | 406288.66177 | 500438.3474760347 | 119067.8105021653
Total projected deliveries | Sum | 11296971.5964885 | 4534305.005450901 | 5657611.969984985 | 1105054.621052615
2012/13:    Model projections of monthly deliveries: total, beet sugar, cane sugar, and direct consumption imports (short tons, raw value).
Delivery months | [NAME]
Oct | A+B+C+D*(II)+E | 1041750.5435919 | 406288.66177 | 500438.3474760347 | 135023.5343458652
Nov | A+B+C+D*(II)+F | 947061.5695724 | 362095.1399897 | 482379.7596500454 | 102586.6699326545
Dec | A+B+C+D*(II)+G | 854797.6967658999 | 322199.6653953 | 427156.5720963828 | 105441.4592742171
Jan | [NAME] | 849771.4306688999 | 340122.5421491 | 409744.899053891 | 99903.98946590896
Feb | A+B+C+D*(II)+J | 842103.0676388999 | 337977.8449996 | 410629.00066979 | 93496.2219695099
Mar | A+B+C+D*(II)+J | 982162.3436010999 | 383257.1323255 | 485649.2173969858 | 113255.9938786141
Apr | [NAME] | 920094.8577748999 | 365683.3002093 | 445714.8714257989 | 108696.6861398011
May | A+B+C+D*(II)+L | 952893.9768662999 | 386422.5264526 | 466667.1237863081 | 99804.32662739174
Jun | A+B+C+D*(II)+M | 977285.8020264999 | 406288.66177 | 480484.3136279347 | 90512.8266285652
Jul | A+B+C+D*(II)+N | 966804.2156991999 | 385843.193479 | 463692.9661928742 | 117268.0560273257
Aug | A+B+C+D*(II)+O | 1041750.5435919 | 406288.66177 | 500438.3474760347 | 135023.5343458652
Sept | A+B+C+D*(II)+P | 1041750.5435919 | 406288.66177 | 500438.3474760347 | 135023.5343458652
Total projected deliveries | Sum | 11418226.5913898 | 4508755.992080101 | 5573433.766328114 | 1336036.832981584
1/ Coefficient value for FY 2012 = 351,026; 2/ Projections calculated as a residual.
Note: Total projected deliveries are rounded in the WASDE to 11,300,000 STRV for FY 2012 and to 11,425,000 STRV for FY 2013.
Source: 2011/12 - Oct. through March: USDA, FSA, Sweetener Market Data; Projections: USDA, ERS, Sugar and [NAME].
 | A+B+C+D*(II)+F
 | A+B+C+D*(II)+G
 | [NAME]
 | A+B+C+D*(II)+I
 | A+B+C+D*(II)+J
 | [NAME]
 | A+B+C+D*(II)+L
 | A+B+C+D*(II)+M
 | A+B+C+D*(II)+N
 | A+B+C+D*(II)+O
 | A+B+C+D*(II)+P