Spreadsheet: vkaminski__40901__CASH_EPE_0400MyCopy
Sheet: RAROC

RAROC
Cash Flow Date | 1997-12-31 00:00:00 | 1998-12-31 00:00:00 | 1999-12-31 00:00:00 | 2000-12-31 00:00:00 | 2001-12-31 00:00:00 | 2002-12-31 00:00:00 | 2003-12-31 00:00:00 | 2004-12-31 00:00:00 | 2005-12-31 00:00:00 | 2006-12-31 00:00:00 | 2007-12-31 00:00:00 | 2008-12-31 00:00:00 | 2009-12-31 00:00:00 | 2010-12-31 00:00:00 | 2011-12-31 00:00:00 | 2012-12-31 00:00:00 | 2013-12-31 00:00:00 | 2014-12-31 00:00:00 | 2015-12-31 00:00:00 | 2016-12-31 00:00:00 | 2017-12-31 00:00:00 | 2018-12-31 00:00:00 | 2019-12-31 00:00:00
Valutation Date
CASH FLOW ANALYSIS
Equity Outflows | Out 01 | Out 02 | Out 03 | Out 04 | Out 05 | Out 06 | Out 07 | Out 08 | Out 09 | Out 10 | Out 11 | Out 12 | Out 13 | Out 14 | Out 15 | Out 16 | Out 17 | Out 18 | Out 19 | Out 20 | Out 21 | Out 22 | Out 23
EPE
GasMat | 0
GasBol | 0
TBS | 0
TOTAL
Fees | Fees 01 | Fees 02 | Fees 03 | Fees 04 | Fees 05 | Fees 06 | Fees 07 | Fees 08 | Fees 09 | Fees 10 | Fees 11 | Fees 12 | Fees 13 | Fees 14 | Fees 15 | Fees 16 | Fees 17 | Fees 18 | Fees 19 | Fees 20 | Fees 21 | Fees 22 | Fees 23
EPE
GasMat | 0
GasBol | 0
TBS | 0
TOTAL
Ongoing Cash Flows | CF 01 | CF 02 | CF 03 | CF 04 | CF 05 | CF 06 | CF 07 | CF 08 | CF 09 | CF 10 | CF 11 | CF 12 | CF 13 | CF 14 | CF 15 | CF 16 | CF 17 | CF 18 | CF 19 | CF 20 | CF 21 | CF 22 | CF 23
EPE
GasMat | 0
GasBol | 0
TBS | 0
TOTAL
Terminal Value | TV 01 | TV 02 | TV 03 | TV 04 | TV 05 | TV 06 | TV 07 | TV 08 | TV 09 | TV 10 | TV 11 | TV 12 | TV 13 | TV 14 | TV 15 | TV 16 | TV 17 | TV 18 | TV 19 | TV 20 | TV 21 | TV 22 | TV 23
EPE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0
GasMat | 0
GasBol | 0
TBS | 0
TOTAL
Summary ofTotal Cash Flows
EPE
GasMat
GasBol
TBS
Consolidated
EPE
Dif
GasMat
Dif
GasBol
Dif
TBS
Dif
Total
Dif
ASSUMPTIONS
Valuation Date | 2000-06-08 00:00:00 |  |  |  |  |  | Pipelines RFS |  |  | 2001-01-01 00:00:00
Capital Price | 0.19 |  |  |  |  |  | Phase II Start Date |  |  | 2001-03-01 00:00:00
NPV |  | PV |  |  |  |  | Phase III Start Date |  |  | 2001-08-01 00:00:00
IRR |  |  |  |  |  |  | Phase III + |  | 2002-05-01 00:00:00 | 2002-05-01 00:00:00
 | BS 01 | BS 02 | BS 03 | BS 04 | BS 05 | BS 06 | BS 07 | BS 08 | BS 09 | BS 10 | BS 11 | BS 12 | BS 13 | BS 14 | BS 15 | BS 16 | BS 17 | BS 18 | BS 19 | BS 20 | BS 21 | BS 22 | BS 23
Balance sheet Test
DEFAULT
NET CASH BEFORE SUBORDINATED DEBT PRINCIPAL REPAYMENT < 0
Consolidated (EPE+GasMat+GasBol+TBS)
Min Test (0=DFLT; 1=No DFLT) | 0
 | DFLT 01 | DFLT 02 | DFLT 03 | DFLT 04 | DFLT 05 | DFLT 06 | DFLT 07 | DFLT 08 | DFLT 09 | DFLT 10 | DFLT 11 | DFLT 12 | DFLT 13 | DFLT 14 | DFLT 15 | DFLT 16 | DFLT 17 | DFLT 18 | DFLT 19 | DFLT 20 | DFLT 21 | DFLT 22 | DFLT 23
Multiplier | 1 | 1 | 1
TV RECOVERY
EPE | 0
GasMat | 0.5
GasBol | 0.5
TBS | 0
COMPARIS0N WITH DEFAULT BASED ON NET CASH BEFORE TRAPPED CASH < 0
 | DF COMP 01 | DF COMP 02 | DF COMP 03 | DF COMP 04 | DF COMP 05 | DF COMP 06 | DF COMP 07 | DF COMP 08 | DF COMP 09 | DF COMP 10 | DF COMP 11 | DF COMP 12 | DF COMP 13 | DF COMP 14 | DF COMP 15 | DF COMP 16 | DF COMP 17 | DF COMP 18 | DF COMP 19 | DF COMP 20 | DF COMP 21 | DF COMP 22 | DF COMP 23
OPEX
Parallel Shift | Normal
Forecast |  |  | 1
Mean |  |  | 1
Standard Deviation
Annual Cost Deviation | Extreme Value
Forecast |  | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1
Mode |  |  |  | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1
Scale
Conversion | 0.06
FINANCING
Interest Rates | Hermes A | Hermes B | KFW | OPIC
 | Triangular | Triangular | Triangular | Triangular
Forecast | 0.0704 | 0.0748 | 0.0927 | 0.1101
Most Likely | 0.0704 | 0.0748 | 0.0927 | 0.1101
Min
[NAME]
Standard Deviation | 0.1
Guarantee Fee
Forecast | 0
LOAN GUARANTEE FEE
 | Custom
Forecast | 1
#'s | 1 | 2 | 3
Probability | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1
 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04
 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04
 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04
 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04
 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04
 | 0 | 0 | 0.04
 | 0 | 0 | 0.04
CONSTRUCTION & POWER PLANT PREPARATION
Cost Overrun ($ ,000) | Triangular
 | EPE | GasMat | GasBol
Forecast | 1615 | 10499 | 7914
Most Likely | 1615 | 10499 | 7914
Min |  | 7491 | 2687
[NAME] | 24757 | 28129 | 13671
Delay - Cuiaba Phase II & III | Custom |  | [NAME] are below
Forecast | 1
 | # | Probability | Pipeline RFS | Phase II | Phase III
On-Time | 1 | 0.5 | 2001-01-01 00:00:00 | 2001-03-01 00:00:00 | 2001-08-01 00:00:00
3 Month Delay | 2 | 0.33 | 2001-03-01 00:00:00 | 2001-06-01 00:00:00 | 2001-11-01 00:00:00
6 Months [NAME] | 3 | 0.17 | 2001-06-01 00:00:00 | 2001-09-01 00:00:00 | 2002-02-01 00:00:00
This scenario ignores liquidated damages, which are assumed to be passed on the EPC contractor
GASBOL RATE RESET
Post financial close reset | Lognormal
Forecast | 1
Mean | 1
Standard Deviation
EPE HEAT RATE
 | Lognormal
Forecast | 1
Mean | 1
Standard Deviation | 0.02
EPE-Off-Taker Availability LDs
 | Binomial
Forecast (1=On; 0=Off) | 1
Probability | 0.5