Spreadsheet: 51fcb3d9-04d8-441a-af69-6172a9a97adb
Sheet: OBR

 | This sheet shows the latest OBR forecasts, referred to in the final propsals.
 | OBR Economic Forecasts - March 2013
 | Economic and Fiscal Supplemnetary Tables
 | Source: | http://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/category/topics/economic-forecasts/
 | 1.4 LABOUR MARKET
 |  | Employ-ment (16+, millions) | Employ-ment rate (16+, per cent) | ILO unemploy-ment (16+, millions) | ILO unemploy-ment rate (16+, per cent) | Particip-ation rate (16+, per cent) | Output per hour (2009Q1=100) | Claimant count (milllions) | Trend employm-ent rate (16+, per cent) | Trend employm-ent (16+, millions) | Trend populat-ion (16+, millions) | Labour share (per cent) | Average hours worked | Total hours worked (millions) | Average earnings growth (per cent) | Average earnings index (Q1 2007=100) | Private sector average weekly earnings (£) | Compensa-tion of employees                    (£ billion)
 | 2009Q1 | 29.2 | 59.2 | 2.2 | 7.1 | 63.7 | 100 | 1.36 |  |  |  | 66.9 | 31.5 | 917.7 | -0.7 | 102.4 | 427 | 190.8
 | 2009Q2 | 28.9 | 58.5 | 2.4 | 7.8 | 63.4 | 100.2 | 1.54 |  |  |  | 68.4 | 31.6 | 914.1 | 2 | 105.5 | 443 | 193.8
 | 2009Q3 | 28.9 | 58.4 | 2.5 | 7.9 | 63.3 | 101.2 | 1.6 |  |  |  | 67.8 | 31.5 | 909 | 2.2 | 106 | 440 | 194.4
 | 2009Q4 | 28.9 | 58.3 | 2.4 | 7.8 | 63.2 | 101.7 | 1.61 | 60 | 29.8 | 49.6 | 68.4 | 31.5 | 909.5 | 3.8 | 107.5 | 443 | 198.6
 | 2010Q1 | 28.8 | 58 | 2.5 | 8 | 63.1 | 102.3 | 1.58 | 60 | 29.8 | 49.7 | 67.7 | 31.5 | 908.3 | 3.8 | 106.3 | 446 | 197.7
 | 2010Q2 | 29 | 58.2 | 2.5 | 7.9 | 63.2 | 102.4 | 1.5 | 60 | 29.9 | 49.8 | 67.7 | 31.6 | 915.9 | 1.2 | 106.8 | 444 | 199.6
 | 2010Q3 | 29.2 | 58.5 | 2.4 | 7.7 | 63.4 | 102.5 | 1.46 | 60 | 29.9 | 49.9 | 67.1 | 31.6 | 920.7 | 0.5 | 106.5 | 449 | 199.4
 | 2010Q4 | 29.1 | 58.3 | 2.5 | 7.8 | 63.2 | 101.7 | 1.45 | 60 | 30 | 50 | 67 | 31.8 | 924.6 | -0.3 | 107.2 | 451 | 199.8
 | 2011Q1 | 29.2 | 58.4 | 2.5 | 7.8 | 63.3 | 102.4 | 1.46 | 60 | 30 | 50 | 67.1 | 31.6 | 924.8 | 1.4 | 107.8 | 457 | 201.8
 | 2011Q2 | 29.2 | 58.3 | 2.5 | 7.9 | 63.3 | 103.8 | 1.5 | 60 | 30.1 | 50.1 | 67.2 | 31.3 | 914.1 | 1.3 | 108.2 | 457 | 202.8
 | 2011Q3 | 29.1 | 57.9 | 2.6 | 8.3 | 63.1 | 103.6 | 1.57 | 60 | 30.1 | 50.2 | 67.3 | 31.7 | 921.5 | 3.3 | 110.1 | 459 | 204.5
 | 2011Q4 | 29.1 | 57.9 | 2.7 | 8.4 | 63.2 | 103.1 | 1.6 | 60 | 30.2 | 50.3 | 67.4 | 31.7 | 923.4 | 3.2 | 110.7 | 462 | 206.4
 | 2012Q1 | 29.3 | 58.1 | 2.6 | 8.2 | 63.2 | 102.4 | 1.61 | 60 | 30.3 | 50.4 | 67.6 | 31.8 | 930.1 | 2.8 | 110.8 | 459 | 209
 | 2012Q2 | 29.5 | 58.4 | 2.6 | 8 | 63.4 | 101.6 | 1.6 | 60 | 30.3 | 50.5 | 68.4 | 31.7 | 934.7 | 3.2 | 111.6 | 467 | 208.8
 | 2012Q3 | 29.6 | 58.5 | 2.5 | 7.8 | 63.4 | 101.4 | 1.58 | 60 | 30.4 | 50.6 | 67.7 | 32 | 945.3 | 1.5 | 111.7 | 468 | 210
 | 2012Q4 | 29.7 | 58.7 | 2.5 | 7.8 | 63.6 | 101.1 | 1.57 | 60 | 30.4 | 50.7 | 68 | 31.9 | 947.1 | 0.8 | 111.6 | 468 | 210.1
 | 2013Q1 | 29.8 | 58.6 | 2.5 | 7.8 | 63.6 | 101.2 | 1.56 | 60 | 30.5 | 50.8 | 68.3 | 31.8 | 946.9 | 1.2 | 112.1 | 471 | 212.9
 | 2013Q2 | 29.8 | 58.6 | 2.6 | 7.9 | 63.6 | 101.3 | 1.57 | 60 | 30.5 | 50.9 | 68.2 | 31.8 | 946.8 | 0.9 | 112.7 | 473 | 214.2
 | 2013Q3 | 29.8 | 58.5 | 2.6 | 8 | 63.6 | 101.5 | 1.59 | 60 | 30.6 | 50.9 | 68.1 | 31.8 | 946.5 | 1.5 | 113.4 | 476 | 215.7
 | 2013Q4 | 29.8 | 58.4 | 2.6 | 8 | 63.5 | 102 | 1.61 | 60 | 30.6 | 51 | 68 | 31.7 | 946 | 2.2 | 114.1 | 479 | 217.1
 | 2014Q1 | 29.8 | 58.4 | 2.6 | 8 | 63.5 | 102.5 | 1.63 | 60 | 30.6 | 51.1 | 67.8 | 31.7 | 945.9 | 2.4 | 114.8 | 483 | 218.6
 | 2014Q2 | 29.9 | 58.4 | 2.6 | 8 | 63.5 | 103.1 | 1.63 | 60 | 30.7 | 51.1 | 67.5 | 31.7 | 946 | 2.6 | 115.6 | 486 | 220
 | 2014Q3 | 29.9 | 58.4 | 2.6 | 8 | 63.5 | 103.6 | 1.62 | 60 | 30.7 | 51.2 | 67.4 | 31.6 | 946.2 | 2.8 | 116.5 | 490 | 221.9
 | 2014Q4 | 29.9 | 58.4 | 2.6 | 8 | 63.5 | 104.2 | 1.62 | 60 | 30.7 | 51.3 | 67.3 | 31.6 | 946.3 | 3 | 117.5 | 494 | 224
 | 2015Q1 | 30 | 58.4 | 2.6 | 8 | 63.5 | 104.7 | 1.62 | 60 | 30.8 | 51.3 | 67.4 | 31.6 | 946.9 | 3.3 | 118.6 | 499 | 226.4
 | 2015Q2 | 30 | 58.4 | 2.6 | 7.9 | 63.5 | 105.3 | 1.6 | 60 | 30.8 | 51.4 | 67.5 | 31.6 | 947.6 | 3.6 | 119.8 | 504 | 229.1
 | 2015Q3 | 30.1 | 58.5 | 2.6 | 7.8 | 63.5 | 105.9 | 1.57 | 59.9 | 30.8 | 51.4 | 67.5 | 31.5 | 948.5 | 3.8 | 120.9 | 509 | 231.7
 | 2015Q4 | 30.1 | 58.5 | 2.5 | 7.8 | 63.4 | 106.5 | 1.55 | 59.9 | 30.9 | 51.5 | 67.5 | 31.5 | 949.3 | 3.9 | 122.1 | 514 | 234.3
 | 2016Q1 | 30.2 | 58.6 | 2.5 | 7.6 | 63.4 | 107.1 | 1.53 | 59.9 | 30.9 | 51.6 | 67.6 | 31.5 | 950.3 | 3.9 | 123.3 | 519 | 237.1
 | 2016Q2 | 30.3 | 58.6 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 63.4 | 107.7 | 1.5 | 59.9 | 30.9 | 51.6 | 67.9 | 31.4 | 951.2 | 4 | 124.5 | 524 | 241
 | 2016Q3 | 30.3 | 58.6 | 2.4 | 7.4 | 63.3 | 108.3 | 1.47 | 59.9 | 31 | 51.7 | 67.9 | 31.4 | 952.2 | 4 | 125.7 | 529 | 243.9
 | 2016Q4 | 30.4 | 58.7 | 2.4 | 7.2 | 63.3 | 109 | 1.44 | 59.9 | 31 | 51.8 | 67.9 | 31.4 | 953.3 | 4 | 127 | 535 | 246.7
 | 2017Q1 | 30.4 | 58.7 | 2.3 | 7.1 | 63.2 | 109.6 | 1.42 | 59.9 | 31 | 51.8 | 68 | 31.3 | 954.3 | 4 | 128.2 | 540 | 249.6
 | 2017Q2 | 30.5 | 58.8 | 2.3 | 7 | 63.2 | 110.3 | 1.39 | 59.9 | 31.1 | 51.9 | 67.9 | 31.3 | 955.4 | 4 | 129.5 | 545 | 252.5
 | 2017Q3 | 30.6 | 58.8 | 2.2 | 6.8 | 63.2 | 110.9 | 1.36 | 59.9 | 31.1 | 52 | 68 | 31.3 | 956.4 | 4 | 130.7 | 551 | 255.5
 | 2017Q4 | 30.6 | 58.9 | 2.2 | 6.7 | 63.1 | 111.6 | 1.33 | 59.9 | 31.1 | 52 | 68 | 31.3 | 957.4 | 4 | 132 | 556 | 258.5
 | 2018Q1 | 30.7 | 58.9 | 2.2 | 6.6 | 63.1 | 112.3 | 1.32 | 59.9 | 31.2 | 52.1 | 68 | 31.2 | 958.5 | 4 | 133.3 | 562 | 261.5
 | Definitions:
 | LFS employment, all aged 16 and over (ONS identifier: MGRZ)
 | LFS employment rate, all aged 16 and over (ONS identifier: MGSR)
 | ILO unemployment, all aged 16 and over (ONS identifier: MGSC)
 | ILO unemployment rate, all aged 16 and over (ONS identifier: MGSX)
 | LFS participation rate, all aged 16 and over (ONS identifier: MGWG)
 | Output her hour worked: non-oil Gross Value Added (ONS identifier: KLS2) divided by total weekly hours worked (ONS identifier: YBUS)
 | Claimant count: the number of people claiming [NAME]'s allowance (ONS identifier: BCJD)
 | OBR estimate of the trend employment rate,  based on LFS employment rate, all aged 16 and over (ONS identifier: MGSR)
 | OBR estimate of trend employment,  based on LFS employment, all aged 16 and over (ONS identifier: MGRZ)
 | OBR estimate of trend population, based on LFS household population, all aged 16 and over (ONS identifier:MGSL)
 | Labour share: total compensation of employees (ONS identifier: DTWM) and mixed income (ONS identifier: ROYH) as a share of nominal Gross Value Added (ONS identifier: ABML)
 | LFS average (mean) actual weekly hours worked, all workers (ONS identifier: YBUV)
 | LFS total weekly hours worked, millions (ONS identifier: YBUS)
 | Average earnings growth: wages and salaries divided by employees, year on year growth rates. Wages and salaries equal to total compensation of employees (ONS identifier: DTWM) minus employers social contributions (ONS identifier: [NAME]).  Employees equal to LFS employment, all aged 16 and over (ONS identifier: MGRZ) minus self-employed (ONS identifier: MGRQ).
 | Average weekly earnings, private sector (ONS identtifier: [NAME])
 | Total compensation of employees (ONS identifier:DTWM)
 | 1.5 INFLATION
 |  | RPI | RPIX | CPI | ROSSI | Producer output prices | Consumer expenditure deflator | House price inflation
 |  | year-on-year growth
 | 2009Q1 | -0.1 | 2.4 | 3 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.2 | -12.5
 | 2009Q2 | -1.3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 1.6 | -12.3
 | 2009Q3 | -1.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | -0.9 | 0.7 | -6.1
 | 2009Q4 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4
 | 2010Q1 | 4 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 5 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 7.7
 | 2010Q2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 10.1
 | 2010Q3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 4 | 7.5
 | 2010Q4 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 4 | 4 | 3.9
 | 2011Q1 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 0.1
 | 2011Q2 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 4.2 | -1.8
 | 2011Q3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 4.4 | -1.6
 | 2011Q4 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 4.3 | -0.5
 | 2012Q1 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.4
 | 2012Q2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2
 | 2012Q3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.9
 | 2012Q4 | 3.1 | 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2 | 2.8 | 2.3
 | 2013Q1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.6
 | 2013Q2 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 3 | 1.6
 | 2013Q3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 0
 | 2013Q4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1
 | 2014Q1 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2 | 2.3 | 1.2
 | 2014Q2 | 2.7 | 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2 | 2.3 | 1.5
 | 2014Q3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2 | 2.3 | 1.7
 | 2014Q4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2 | 2.2 | 2
 | 2015Q1 | 3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.5
 | 2015Q2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2 | 2.1 | 3
 | 2015Q3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2 | 2.1 | 3.5
 | 2015Q4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2 | 2.1 | 4
 | 2016Q1 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 4
 | 2016Q2 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 4
 | 2016Q3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 4
 | 2016Q4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 2 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 4
 | 2017Q1 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 4
 | 2017Q2 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 2 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 4
 | 2017Q3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 2 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 4
 | 2017Q4 | 4 | 3.2 | 2 | 3.2 | 2 | 2 | 4
 | 2018Q1 | 4 | 3.2 | 2 | 3.2 | 2 | 2 | 4
 | Notes:
 | RPI, RPIX, CPI and ROSSI inflation and Producer output prices are based on outturn data up to and including January 2013
 | Definitions:
 | All items Retail Prices Index, all items Retail Prices Index excluding mortgage interest payments, all items Consumer Prices Index, all items Retail Price Index excluding mortgage interest payments, council tax, housing depreciation and rents, Producer output prices, all manufacturing products (excluding duty), (percentage change over 12 months) (ONS Consumer Prices Index and Producer Prices Index [NAME], identifier: CZBH, CDKQ, [NAME], GUMG, [NAME] respectively)
 | Consumer expenditure deflator: Households final consumption expenditure at current market prices (ABJQ) plus non-profit institutions (HAYE) divided by Households final consumption expenditure, chained volume measure (ABJR) plus non-profit institutions (HAYO)
 | ONS House Price Index, based on outturn data up to and including December 2012, annual house price growth (House Price Index Statistical Bulletin)
 | CAA Analysis
 | YOY Wage Growth | 2009/10 | 2010/11 | 2011/12 | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 | 2016/17 | 2017/18 | 2018/19
 | Gross Wage Growth
 | RPI Growth
 | Net Wage Growth
 | HAL FBP |  |  |  |  |  | -0.005 | -0.005 | -0.005 | -0.005 | -0.005
 | HAL (net relative to economy)
 | GAL RBP |  |  |  |  |  | 0.0075 | 0.0075 | 0.0075 | 0.0075 | 0.0075
 | GAL (net relative to economy)
 | End