Spreadsheet: 2b63333e-3417-4100-aca7-a4b0c6d61c06
Sheet: Sheet1

Table 1 | Unnamed: 1 | Unnamed: 2 | Unnamed: 3 | Unnamed: 4 | Unnamed: 5 | Unnamed: 6 | Unnamed: 7 | Unnamed: 8 | Unnamed: 9 | Unnamed: 10
Projected Population of New Zealand
1991–2061 (2006-base)
Year at 30 June | Projection | Alternative projections(1)
 | assumptions(2) | Series 1 | Series 2 | Series 3 | Series 4 | Series 5 | Series 6 | Series 7 | Series 8 | Series 9
 | Fertility | Low | Low | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium | High | High
 | Mortality | High | Medium | High | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium | Low
 | Net migration | 5000 | 10000 | 10000 | 5000 | 10000 | 15000 | 10000 | 10000 | 15000
Estimated population (000)
1991 |  | 3495 | 3495 | 3495 | 3495 | 3495 | 3495 | 3495 | 3495 | 3495
1996 |  | 3732 | 3732 | 3732 | 3732 | 3732 | 3732 | 3732 | 3732 | 3732
2001 |  | 3880 | 3880 | 3880 | 3880 | 3880 | 3880 | 3880 | 3880 | 3880
2006 (base) |  | 4185 | 4185 | 4185 | 4185 | 4185 | 4185 | 4185 | 4185 | 4185
Projected population (000)
2007 |  | 4225 | 4227 | 4228 | 4226 | 4228 | 4230 | 4228 | 4228 | 4231
2008 |  | 4259 | 4266 | 4268 | 4262 | 4268 | 4274 | 4269 | 4271 | 4278
2009 |  | 4292 | 4305 | 4309 | 4299 | 4310 | 4322 | 4311 | 4315 | 4328
2010 |  | 4325 | 4344 | 4350 | 4335 | 4352 | 4369 | 4354 | 4360 | 4379
2011 |  | 4356 | 4382 | 4390 | 4371 | 4393 | 4415 | 4396 | 4405 | 4430
2016 |  | 4494 | 4556 | 4578 | 4537 | 4589 | 4640 | 4599 | 4621 | 4684
2021 |  | 4608 | 4711 | 4751 | 4687 | 4771 | 4855 | 4790 | 4831 | 4936
2026 |  | 4700 | 4849 | 4906 | 4821 | 4939 | 5058 | 4971 | 5030 | 5182
2031 |  | 4769 | 4968 | 5042 | 4935 | 5090 | 5244 | 5135 | 5212 | 5416
2036 |  | 4810 | 5061 | 5153 | 5026 | 5218 | 5409 | 5279 | 5376 | 5635
2041 |  | 4825 | 5130 | 5243 | 5096 | 5325 | 5555 | 5404 | 5525 | 5841
2046 |  | 4814 | 5172 | 5315 | 5144 | 5413 | 5683 | 5508 | 5663 | 6037
2051 |  | 4779 | 5188 | 5368 | 5171 | 5481 | 5791 | 5590 | 5786 | 6220
2056 |  | 4726 | 5184 | 5407 | 5180 | 5531 | 5883 | 5653 | 5897 | 6389
2061 |  | 4664 | 5167 | 5438 | 5178 | 5571 | 5964 | 5702 | 6001 | 6548
Population change 2006–2031
Number (000) |  | 584 | 783 | 857 | 750 | 905 | 1060 | 951 | 1028 | 1232
Average annual(3) (percent) |  | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1
Population change 2031–2061
Number (000) |  | -105 | 199 | 396 | 243 | 481 | 720 | 567 | 788 | 1132
Average annual(3) (percent) |  | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6
(1) These projections have as a base the estimated resident population of New Zealand at 30 June 2006. Nine alternative projection series
have been produced using different combinations of fertility, mortality and migration assumptions as outlined in (2) below. Five additional
'what if?' projection scenarios have also been produced as outlined in table 4.
(2) Projection assumptions comprise:
(a) Fertility: Three alternative variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume that fertility rates will vary until the year 2026
when the total fertility rate will reach 1.70, 1.90 and 2.10 births per woman, respectively. After 2026, fertility rates are assumed to
stay constant. The base total fertility rate in 2006 was 1.99 births per woman (based on estimated births by date of occurrence).
(b) Mortality: Three alternative variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume that mortality rates will continue to drop so
that the life expectancy at birth for males will increase to 87.0, 84.5 and 82.0 years, respectively, by 2061. The corresponding life
expectancies at birth for females will be 90.0, 88.0 and 86.0 years in 2061. The base life expectancy at birth in 2005–2007 was 78.2
years for males and 82.2 years for females.
(c) Migration: Three alternative variants – designated low, medium and high – which assume long-run annual net migration of 5,000,
10,000 and 15,000, respectively. Series with long-run annual net migration of 5,000 assume net migration of 8,000 in 2007, 3,000 in
2008 and 4,000 in 2009. Series with long-run annual net migration of 10,000 assume net migration of 10,000 in 2007, 7,000 in 2008
and 9,000 in 2009. Series with long-run annual net migration of 15,000 assume net migration of 12,000 in 2007, 11,000 in 2008 and
14,000 in 2009.
(3) Calculated as a constant rate of annual change over the period.
Note: Owing to rounding, individual figures may not sum to give the stated totals.