Spreadsheet: vkaminski__40671__DZCVShortTermFinal
Sheet: DZCV Short-Term Model

PPI [DZCV95] AUTOREGRESSIVE ERROR-CORRECTING MODEL |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Any probs? Anjam x35383
COEFFICIENTS |  |  | SLOPE PARAMETER |  |  |  |  | Parameters were estimated using SPSS and data |  |  |  |  |  | Please update cells in grey
RPI[t] | 0.013725 |  | ChangePer3Months |  |  | 0.0011 |  | in sheet "FinalDataSet".  Model allows PPI to be a |  |  |  |  |  | (at the bottom of columns B & C
PPI[t-1] | 0.9782727 |  |  |  |  |  |  | function of previous PPI, recent 3month change in PPI, |  |  |  |  |  | with latest RPI and PPI
Slope[3] | 0.17700899 |  | RECENT HISTORICAL 3 MONTH SLOPE |  |  |  |  | constant, current RPI and an auto-regressive error term |  |  |  |  |  | numbers as they are released
Constant | -2.259e-05 |  | 1998-12-01 00:00:00 | 0.001
AregError | -0.0412 |  | 2000-02-01 00:00:00 | 0.006 |  |  |  | Use model to predict out to 12 months and then
Adj R-squared | 0.97662479 |  |  |  |  |  |  | blend-in months 12 to 16 with long-term model
[NAME] | 0.0386807 |  |  | RPI | DZCV | Diff
 |  |  | Average
 |  |  |  |  |  | SumSq
 | INPUTS |  | OUTPUT
Date | HistRPI | HistDZCV | PredictDZCV | PrevError | Error | Error^2
1992-01-01 00:00:00 | 0.04147465437788034 | 0.03085714285714292
1992-02-01 00:00:00 | 0.04125286478227652 | 0.03071672354948785
1992-03-01 00:00:00 | 0.04033485540334847 | 0.02937853107344623
1992-04-01 00:00:00 | 0.04282494365139011 | 0.02581369248035936
1992-05-01 00:00:00 | 0.04344569288389533 | 0.02463605823068304
1992-06-01 00:00:00 | 0.03877703206562289 | 0.02690582959641241
1992-07-01 00:00:00 | 0.03736920777279518 | 0.02687569988801797
1992-08-01 00:00:00 | 0.03579418344519025 | 0.0291806958473626
1992-09-01 00:00:00 | 0.03566121842496295 | 0.02802690582959633
1992-10-01 00:00:00 | 0.03552923760177662 | 0.0257558790593504
1992-11-01 00:00:00 | 0.03023598820059004 | 0.02681564245810053
1992-12-01 00:00:00 | 0.02579218865143695 | 0.02901785714285721
1993-01-01 00:00:00 | 0.01696165191740429 | 0.02882483370288247
1993-02-01 00:00:00 | 0.01834189288334565 | 0.0298013245033113
1993-03-01 00:00:00 | 0.01901975128017575 | 0.02963776070252466
1993-04-01 00:00:00 | 0.01296829971181546 | 0.03063457330415753
1993-05-01 00:00:00 | 0.01292175161521891 | 0.03169398907103838
1993-06-01 00:00:00 | 0.01220387652548438 | 0.03165938864628837
1993-07-01 00:00:00 | 0.01368876080691628 | 0.0316248636859322
1993-08-01 00:00:00 | 0.01727861771058326 | 0.0316248636859322
1993-09-01 00:00:00 | 0.01793400286944036 | 0.0316248636859322
1993-10-01 00:00:00 | 0.01358112937812717 | 0.03384279475982543
1993-11-01 00:00:00 | 0.0136005726556907 | 0.03155603917301408
1993-12-01 00:00:00 | 0.01939655172413812 | 0.03145336225596518
1994-01-01 00:00:00 | 0.0246555474981871 | 0.0269396551724137
1994-02-01 00:00:00 | 0.02377521613832845 | 0.02357984994640949
1994-03-01 00:00:00 | 0.02297200287150036 | 0.0191897654584221
1994-04-01 00:00:00 | 0.02560455192034139 | 0.01698513800424628
1994-05-01 00:00:00 | 0.02551381998582558 | 0.01906779661016955
1994-06-01 00:00:00 | 0.02624113475177303 | 0.017989417989418
1994-07-01 00:00:00 | 0.02345415778251603 | 0.01797040169133202
1994-08-01 00:00:00 | 0.02406227883934875 | 0.01902748414376343
1994-09-01 00:00:00 | 0.02184637068357986 | 0.02008456659619462
1994-10-01 00:00:00 | 0.02397743300423105 | 0.02217529039070754
1994-11-01 00:00:00 | 0.02612994350282505 | 0.02320675105485237
1994-12-01 00:00:00 | 0.02889358703312195 | 0.02418506834910628
1995-01-01 00:00:00 | 0.03326256192498223 | 0.03462749213011529
1995-02-01 00:00:00 | 0.0337790288529205 | 0.03560209424083771
1995-03-01 00:00:00 | 0.03508771929824572 | 0.03661087866108792
1995-04-01 00:00:00 | 0.03328710124826628 | 0.03862212943632581
1995-05-01 00:00:00 | 0.03386316516931598 | 0.03742203742203731
1995-06-01 00:00:00 | 0.03524533517622674 | 0.03950103950103956
1995-07-01 00:00:00 | 0.03541666666666665 | 0.04153686396677059
1995-08-01 00:00:00 | 0.03593642017968213 | 0.04253112033195006
1995-09-01 00:00:00 | 0.0386206896551724 | 0.04352331606217619
1995-10-01 00:00:00 | 0.03168044077135002 | 0.0423553719008265
1995-11-01 00:00:00 | 0.03097040605643486 | 0.0381443298969073
1995-12-01 00:00:00 | 0.03219178082191765 | 0.03901437371663241
1996-01-01 00:00:00 | 0.02876712328767117 | 0.03144016227180546
1996-02-01 00:00:00 | 0.02722940776038119 | 0.03134479271991908
1996-03-01 00:00:00 | 0.02711864406779663 | 0.03128153380423826
1996-04-01 00:00:00 | 0.02416107382550337 | 0.03015075376884413
1996-05-01 00:00:00 | 0.02205882352941191 | 0.02805611222444893
1996-06-01 00:00:00 | 0.02136181575433893 | 0.02499999999999991
1996-07-01 00:00:00 | 0.02213279678068414 | 0.01994017946161519
1996-08-01 00:00:00 | 0.0213475650433621 | 0.01791044776119399
1996-09-01 00:00:00 | 0.02124833997343978 | 0.01588877855014892
1996-10-01 00:00:00 | 0.026702269692924 | 0.01288404360753215
1996-11-01 00:00:00 | 0.02736982643524688 | 0.01588877855014892
1996-12-01 00:00:00 | 0.02455209024552096 | 0.01185770750988135
1997-01-01 00:00:00 | 0.02796271637816261 | 0.009832841691248762
1997-02-01 00:00:00 | 0.02717031146454607 | 0.006862745098039191
1997-03-01 00:00:00 | 0.02574257425742577 | 0.004892367906066619
1997-04-01 00:00:00 | 0.02424639580602905 | 0.003902439024390247
1997-05-01 00:00:00 | 0.02616088947024209 | 0.003898635477582957
1997-06-01 00:00:00 | 0.02941176470588225 | 0.002926829268292686
1997-07-01 00:00:00 | 0.0334645669291338 | 0.004887585532746819
1997-08-01 00:00:00 | 0.03527106466361851 | 0.004887585532746819
1997-09-01 00:00:00 | 0.03576072821846554 | 0.004887585532746819
1997-10-01 00:00:00 | 0.03706111833550052 | 0.005870841487279677
1997-11-01 00:00:00 | 0.03703703703703698 | 0.003910068426197455
1997-12-01 00:00:00 | 0.03626943005181338 | 0.005859375
1998-01-01 00:00:00 | 0.03303108808290145 | 0.004868549172346581
1998-02-01 00:00:00 | 0.03419354838709676 | 0.004868549172346581
1998-03-01 00:00:00 | 0.03474903474903468 | 0.005842259006815897
1998-04-01 00:00:00 | 0.040307101727447 | 0.004859086491739495
1998-05-01 00:00:00 | 0.04206500956022952 | 0.003883495145631022
1998-06-01 00:00:00 | 0.03746031746031742 | 0.005836575875486361
1998-07-01 00:00:00 | 0.03492063492063502 | 0.005836575875486361
1998-08-01 00:00:00 | 0.03280757097791787 | 0.004863813229571967
1998-09-01 00:00:00 | 0.03201506591337089 | 0.003891050583657574
1998-10-01 00:00:00 | 0.03134796238244508 | 0.001945525291828787
1998-11-01 00:00:00 | 0.03007518796992481 | 0.001947419668938632
1998-12-01 00:00:00 | 0.02750000000000008 | 0.000970873786407811
1999-01-01 00:00:00 | 0.02445141065830714 | 0.0009689922480620172
1999-02-01 00:00:00 | 0.02121023081721751 | 0.001937984496124034
1999-03-01 00:00:00 | 0.02052238805970141 | 0.002904162633107443
1999-04-01 00:00:00 | 0.01599015990159902 | 0.003868471953578201
1999-05-01 00:00:00 | 0.01284403669724776 | 0.003868471953578201
1999-06-01 00:00:00 | 0.01346389228886169 | 0.002901353965183651
1999-07-01 00:00:00 | 0.01288343558282201 | 0.002901353965183651
1999-08-01 00:00:00 | 0.01099572388515591 | 0.002904162633107443
1999-09-01 00:00:00 | 0.01094890510948887 | 0.004844961240310086
1999-10-01 00:00:00 | 0.01215805471124609 | 0.006796116504854455
1999-11-01 00:00:00 | 0.01399026763990263 | 0.00680272108843516
1999-12-01 00:00:00 | 0.01763990267639914 | 0.005819592628516057
2000-01-01 00:00:00 | 0.0196 | 0.006
2000-02-01 00:00:00 | 0.023 | 0.006
2000-03-01 00:00:00 | 0.023 |  |  | NEXT UPDATE: MARCH 2000
2000-04-01 00:00:00 | 0.023
2000-05-01 00:00:00 | 0.023
2000-06-01 00:00:00 | 0.023
2000-07-01 00:00:00 | 0.023
2000-08-01 00:00:00 | 0.023
2000-09-01 00:00:00 | 0.023
2000-10-01 00:00:00 | 0.023
2000-11-01 00:00:00 | 0.023
2000-12-01 00:00:00 | 0.023
2001-01-01 00:00:00 | 0.023
2001-02-01 00:00:00 | 0.023
2001-03-01 00:00:00 | 0.023
2001-04-01 00:00:00 | 0.023
2001-05-01 00:00:00 | 0.023
2001-06-01 00:00:00 | 0.023
2001-07-01 00:00:00 | 0.023
2001-08-01 00:00:00 | 0.023
2001-09-01 00:00:00 | 0.023
2001-10-01 00:00:00 | 0.023
2001-11-01 00:00:00 | 0.023
2001-12-01 00:00:00 | 0.023