Spreadsheet: jeff_dasovich__14205__E204_HaasvilleA_sim
Sheet: Q1(a)&(b)

 |  |  |  |  | Crystal Ball Report
 |  |  |  |  | Simulation started on 11/7/99 at 11:12:51
 |  |  |  |  | Simulation stopped on 11/7/99 at 11:19:54
Forecast:   NPV for Tech. A |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  I25
 | Summary:
 |  | Display Range is from $9.000 to $11.250 $
 |  | Entire Range is from $8.823 to $11.603 $
 |  | After 10,000 Trials, the [NAME]. Error of the [NAME] is $0.004
 | Statistics: |  |  |  |  |  | Value
 |  | Trials |  |  |  |  | 10000
 |  | Mean |  |  |  |  | 10.06929847570697
 |  | Median |  |  |  |  | 10.06715106296306
 |  | Mode |  |  |  |  | ---
 |  | Standard Deviation |  |  |  |  | 0.3800507397655717
 |  | [NAME] |  |  |  |  | 0.1444385647963583
 |  | Skewness |  |  |  |  | 0.09246099761544625
 |  | Kurtosis |  |  |  |  | 2.967644979967213
 |  | [NAME]. of Variability |  |  |  |  | 0.03774351715588493
 |  | Range Minimum |  |  |  |  | 8.822680559120215
 |  | Range Maximum |  |  |  |  | 11.60332310097077
 |  | Range Width |  |  |  |  | 2.780642541850558
 |  | [NAME]. Error |  |  |  |  | 0.003800507397655718
Forecast:   NPV for Tech. A  (cont'd) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  I25
 | Percentiles:
 |  |  | Percentile |  |  |  | $
 |  |  | 0 |  |  |  | 8.822680559120215
 |  |  | 0.1 |  |  |  | 9.573605140392836
 |  |  | 0.2 |  |  |  | 9.743644026798968
 |  |  | 0.3 |  |  |  | 9.867944828278272
 |  |  | 0.4 |  |  |  | 9.974410554158501
 |  |  | 0.5 |  |  |  | 10.06715106296306
 |  |  | 0.6 |  |  |  | 10.16526653352768
 |  |  | 0.7 |  |  |  | 10.26555916871584
 |  |  | 0.8 |  |  |  | 10.38217925223117
 |  |  | 0.9 |  |  |  | 10.55148437448152
 |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | 11.60332310097077
End of Forecast
 |  |  |  |  | Assumptions
Assumption:  Cost of Capital |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  J10
 | Uniform distribution with parameters:
 |  | Minimum |  | 0.09 |  | (=H10)
 |  | Maximum |  | 0.15 |  | (=I10)
 | Mean value in simulation was 11.97%
Assumption:  Demand Growth Rate |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  K5
 | Triangular distribution with parameters:
 |  | Minimum |  | 0.03 |  | (=H5)
 |  | Likeliest |  | 0.1 |  | (=I5)
 |  | Maximum |  | 0.15 |  | (=J5)
 | Selected range is from 3.000% to 15.000%
 | Mean value in simulation was 9.345%
Assumption:  Investment in Year 1 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  C22
 | Normal distribution with parameters:
 |  | Mean |  | 5.3 |  | (=E4)
 |  | [NAME]. |  | 0.25 |  | (=E5)
 | Selected range is from -Infinity to +Infinity
 | Mean value in simulation was $5.301
Assumption:  Investment in Year 2 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  D22
 | Normal distribution with parameters:
 |  | Mean |  | 0.7 |  | (=E6)
 |  | [NAME]. |  | 0.01 |  | (=E7)
 | Selected range is from -Infinity to +Infinity
 | Mean value in simulation was $0.700
Assumption:  Oil Price in Year 1 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  D14
 | Custom  distribution with parameters: |  |  |  |  |  |  | Relative Prob.
 |  | Single point |  | 8 |  |  |  | 0.1
 |  | Single point |  | 12 |  |  |  | 0.25
 |  | Single point |  | 18 |  |  |  | 0.3
 |  | Single point |  | 20 |  |  |  | 0.2
 |  | Single point |  | 25 |  |  |  | 0.15
 | Total Relative Probability |  |  |  |  |  |  | 1
 | Mean value in simulation was $16.98
Assumption:  Oil Price in Year 2 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  E14
 | Custom  distribution with parameters: |  |  |  |  |  |  | Relative Prob.
 |  | Single point |  | 8 |  |  |  | 0.1
 |  | Single point |  | 12 |  |  |  | 0.25
 |  | Single point |  | 18 |  |  |  | 0.3
 |  | Single point |  | 20 |  |  |  | 0.2
 |  | Single point |  | 25 |  |  |  | 0.15
 | Total Relative Probability |  |  |  |  |  |  | 1
 | Mean value in simulation was $16.91
Assumption:  Oil Price in Year 3 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  F14
 | Custom  distribution with parameters: |  |  |  |  |  |  | Relative Prob.
 |  | Single point |  | 8 |  |  |  | 0.1
 |  | Single point |  | 12 |  |  |  | 0.25
 |  | Single point |  | 18 |  |  |  | 0.3
 |  | Single point |  | 20 |  |  |  | 0.2
 |  | Single point |  | 25 |  |  |  | 0.15
 | Total Relative Probability |  |  |  |  |  |  | 1
 | Mean value in simulation was $17.04
Assumption:  Oil Prince in Year 4 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  G14
 | Custom  distribution with parameters: |  |  |  |  |  |  | Relative Prob.
 |  | Single point |  | 8 |  |  |  | 0.1
 |  | Single point |  | 12 |  |  |  | 0.25
 |  | Single point |  | 18 |  |  |  | 0.3
 |  | Single point |  | 20 |  |  |  | 0.2
 |  | Single point |  | 25 |  |  |  | 0.15
 | Total Relative Probability |  |  |  |  |  |  | 1
 | Mean value in simulation was $17.00
Assumption:  Oil Price in Year 5 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  H14
 | Custom  distribution with parameters: |  |  |  |  |  |  | Relative Prob.
 |  | Single point |  | 8 |  |  |  | 0.1
 |  | Single point |  | 12 |  |  |  | 0.25
 |  | Single point |  | 18 |  |  |  | 0.3
 |  | Single point |  | 20 |  |  |  | 0.2
 |  | Single point |  | 25 |  |  |  | 0.15
 | Total Relative Probability |  |  |  |  |  |  | 1
 | Mean value in simulation was $16.92
End of Assumptions