Spreadsheet: sally_beck__36254__BO Assumps 0416
Sheet: Sheet1

Revenue Related Assumptions |  | Begin: 2001 / End: 2011 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Model | =Summary!$B$73
 |  | P50 Case | P5 Case | [NAME] |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | NPV_Rf_SP_Eq_Sec_avg | =Summary!$G$84
Target Mkt Penetration |  | 2% / 36% | 0% / 10% | 5% / 65% |  | Estimated Market Spending |  |  | 419150000 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | NPV_Rf_SP_Eq_Sec_Cr_avg | =Summary!$G$85
Customer Count |  | 11 / 193 | 0 / 54 | 27 / 348 |  | [NAME] |  |  | 536 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | NPVCoeffVar | =Summary!$C$98
Transaction Count |  | 33,961 / 611,297 | 0 / 169,805 | 84,902 / 1,103,731 |  | Market Growth |  |  | 5% / 20%
% of Current Txn Volume |  | 4% / 64% | 0% / 18% | 9% / 116% |  | Initial Per Txn Revenue Range |  |  | $25 - $137
Revenue Margins |  | 0.68 | 0.53 | 0.75 |  | Per [NAME] revenue decreasing over time
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | NPVCOV | =Summary!$C$96
Expenses Related Assumptions |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | NPVKURTOSIS | =Summary!$C$100
 |  |  |  |  |  | P50 Case | P5 Case | [NAME] |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | NPVRFEXP | =Summary!$C$91
Core Transaction Processing |  | $6-34 per transaction |  |  |  | $6 - $34 | $6 - $34 | $6 - $34
IT Hardware |  | Upgrades as volume increases |  |  |  | 15000000 | 10000000 | 18000000
IT Systems Maintenance |  | 1 Manager per 25 Customer Companies |  |  |  | Labor Priced at $200,000 per year
Legal & Accounting |  | Legal: $10k/Cust. + $50k start-up;  Accounting: $1k/Cust., $20k/10 Cust. Audit |  |  |  | Based on yearly customer count
Customer Relations / Service |  | Relations: 1 Mgr per 50 Cust.;  Service: 1 Sr. Spec. per 10 Cust. |  |  |  | Labor Priced at $175,000 & $75,000 per year |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | NPVRFP5 | =Summary!$C$90
Mgmt, Marketing & Sales |  | Management: 1 VP per 50 Cust.;  Mktg & Sales: 1 Mgr per 20 Cust. |  |  |  | Labor Priced at $250,000 & $200,000 per year |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | =Summary!$C$92
 | PROBABILISTIC DCF RESULTS |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | NPVRFSTD | =Summary!$C$93
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | NPVSKEWNESS | =Summary!$C$99
Probabilistic DCF |  | PV @ Capital |  | Discount Rate | [NAME] |  | Current Pricing |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | NPVSTDerror | =Summary!$C$97
by Component |  | Price |  | Components | Initial | Prior | Strategic |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Other | =Summary!$I$53
Cash Outflows + Outstanding |  | 0 |  | Risk-free rate | 0.05 | 0.0577 | 0.06829882367404845 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | OTHER_RAV | =Summary!$C$108
Fees |  | 0 |  | Country premium | 0 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | outstanding | =Summary!$C$13
Ongoing Cash Flows |  | 17998868.46217332 |  | Equity premium | 0.055 | 0.055 | 0.0502 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Print_Area | =Summary!$A$7:$K$76
Terminal Value |  | 0 |  | Credit spread (structured CR) | 0 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | PV_RACCapPrice | =Summary!$H$86
Total |  | 17998868.46217332 |  | Sector adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | PV_Rf_SP_avg | =Summary!$H$83
 |  |  |  | Transaction-specific | 0.08149999999999999 | 0.08149999999999999 | 0.08149999999999999 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | PV_Rf_SP_Eq_Sec_avg | =Summary!$H$84
Semivariance - +/- | 1.151599736791272 |  |  | RAC Capital Price (All-in) | 0.1865 | 0.1942 | 0.1999988236740484 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | PV_Rf_SP_Eq_Sec_Cr_avg | =Summary!$H$85
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | PV_Rf_SP_Eq_Sect_avg | =Summary!$H$84
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | RACCapPrice | =Summary!$F$86
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | RADR | =Summary!$C$109
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | RAROCINDP10 | =Summary!$C$107
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | rate_rf | =Summary!$F$82
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | rate_rf_all | =Summary!$F$85
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | rate_rf_sov | =Summary!$F$83
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | rate_rf_sov_equ | =Summary!$F$84
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | RISKPREMIUM | =Summary!$C$105
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Sector | =Summary!$I$52
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | SHARPEINDEX | =Summary!$C$106
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ShiftCapPrice | =Summary!$G$90
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ShiftCP | =Summary!$G$89
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ShiftsFileInUse | =Summary!$K$46
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | StgcPrice | =Summary!$J$54
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Template_file | =Summary!$B$74
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Shifts file in use: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | UNDISCOUNTED | =Summary!$F$81
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | SHIFTS |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | UNDISCOUNTED_NPV | =Summary!$G$81
DCF Cash flow model: | O:\ECM\RAAP\ |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | UNDISCOUNTED_PV | =Summary!$H$81
Valuation Summary: | [NAME] |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ValDate | =Summary!$C$10
 | Preparation date & time: | 36997.54917777778 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | WAVGRF | =Summary!$I$48
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | WAVGRF_NPV | =Summary!$G$82
 | ADDITIONAL DATA |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | WAVGRF_PV | =Summary!$H$82
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | AVG | ='Total Cash flows'!$AP$1004
Statistics - IRR Distribution |  |  |  | PV Components | Strategic |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | ='Total Cash flows'!$AU$1027
P5 |  | -1 |  |  | % | NPV | PV |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | CFOut | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1063:$AJ$1063
Expected |  | 5.749369882209056 |  | Undiscounted | 0 | 47268708.92489499 | 47268708.92489499 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | CumP5 | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1061:$AJ$1061
P95 |  | 14.37370264053344 |  | Risk-free | 0.06829882367404845 | 32420174.5061877 | 32420174.5061877 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | CumP95 | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1062:$AJ$1062
Standard deviation - IRR |  | 58.70430708622222 |  | Risk-free + sovereign | 0.06829882367404845 | 32420174.50618768 | 32420174.50618768 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ECashFlow | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1004:$AJ$1004
Standard Error |  | 1.856393188544248 |  | Rf + sov. + equity/sector | 0.1184988236740485 | 25417348.57311739 | 25417348.57311739 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Elapsed | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1059:$AJ$1059
Coefficient of variability (Standard Error) |  | 0.3228863730421488 |  | Rf+sov+equity/sector+CR | 0.1184988236740485 | 25417348.57311739 | 25417348.57311739 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | exitdatecalc | ='Total Cash flows'!$AK$1019
Skewness - IRR |  | 23.39170513006042 |  | RAC Capital Price | 0.1999988236740484 | 17998868.46217332 | 17998868.46217332 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ExpCumCF | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1060:$AJ$1060
Errors |  | 242 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Fees | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1064:$AJ$1064
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | FEES_CUM | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1009:$AJ$1009
Statistics - NPV at Risk Free Distribution |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | INFLOWS | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1012:$AJ$1012
P5 |  | -1362272.275993884 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | IRRbin | ='Total Cash flows'!$AN$1027
Expected |  | 32420174.5061877 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | IRRDates | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$2:$AJ$2
P95 |  | 68473446.40100609 |  | Average Life = 5.9 years |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | IRRs | ='Total Cash flows'!$AN$3:$AN$1002
Standard deviation |  | 21654765.37007906 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Margin | ='Total Cash flows'!$AZ$2
Expected - P5 (SDs) |  | 1.560046770530225 |  | Test stats |  | Crit. |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | N | ='Total Cash flows'!$A$1002
P95 - Expected (SDs) |  | 1.664911684734027 |  | Skew - NPV Rf | 0.2473030386224738 | positive |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | NoOfDealTermPeriods | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1074
Coefficient of variability |  | 0.6679410490509863 |  | Plus Raroc (Rf) | 1.112062857278491 | bigger |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | NPVRf | ='Total Cash flows'!$AP$3:$AP$1002
Standard Error |  | 684783.8076598884 |  | Upside/Invmt | N/A | bigger |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | NPVRfSP | ='Total Cash flows'!$AT$3:$AT$1002
Coefficient of variability (Standard Error) |  | 0.02112215057723366 |  | Exp/Invmt | N/A |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Ongoing | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1065:$AJ$1065
Skewness |  | 0.2473030386224738 |  | Downside/Invmt | N/A |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ONGOING_CUM | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1010:$AJ$1010
Kurtosis |  | -0.135139729320819 |  | Expected Exit Year | 40908 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | OUTFLOWS | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1008:$AJ$1008
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | PEXP | ='Total Cash flows'!$AU$1030
Other Statistics |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | PHI | ='Total Cash flows'!$AU$1031
Remaining weighted average life |  | 5.934497673455262 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | PIEXP | ='Total Cash flows'!$AN$1030
"Excess" Return (IRR-Rf) |  | 5.681071058535007 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | ='Total Cash flows'!$AN$1031
Risk premium (ECM-Rf) |  | 0.1317 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | PILO | ='Total Cash flows'!$AN$1029
Sharpe index |  | 0.09677434826359346 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | PLO | ='Total Cash flows'!$AU$1029
RAROC Index (10%) |  | 0.9824383704752313 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | PVCapPrice | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1038:$AJ$1038
RAV |  | 9946748.182957476 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | PVCr | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1037:$AJ$1037
RADR |  | 0.06829882353686414 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | PVEq | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1036:$AJ$1036
Est. QVAR at Capital Price |  | 0 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | PVMargin | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1070:$AJ$1070
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | PVRf | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1034:$AJ$1034
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | PVRfSP | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1035:$AJ$1035
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | PVUn | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1033:$AJ$1033
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | RAV | ='Total Cash flows'!$AY$1006
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | rho | ='Total Cash flows'!$AY$2
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | RiskFreePlusShift | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1022:$AJ$1022
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | ='Total Cash flows'!$AV$1009
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | switch | ='Total Cash flows'!$AV$1007
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | TERMINAL_CUM | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1011:$AJ$1011
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | TermVal | ='Total Cash flows'!$B$1066:$AJ$1066
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | VDATE | ='Total Cash flows'!$Q$2:$AJ$2