Spreadsheet: james_steffes__12843__CTCanalysisSUMMARY
Sheet: SUMMARY

California Retail Analysis
Impact of Potential CPUC Changes
 |  | ------------------------------ Historical ------------------------------ |  |  |  |  | -------------- Forward --------------
 |  | 1 | 2 | 3 |  |  | 4 | 5
 |  | Jan 5-Jan 18 | Jan 19-Jan 31 | Feb-Aug | Subtotal |  | Sep-Mar '02 | > Mar '02 |  | TOTAL
DA Volumes, PG&E and SCE |  | 313000 | 290000 | 860000 | 1463000 |  | 3668000 | 8551000 |  | 13682000
(Excluding New Retail Gen Deals)
CTC Calculations
As Currently Booked |  | 48.72445072147455 | 45.24413281279778 | 59.24035455399957 | 153.2089380882719 |  | 0 | 0 |  | 153.2089380882719
Using Market as Proxy for PX |  | 48.72445072147455 | 45.24413281279778 | 51.25538330588769 | 145.22396684016 |  | 6.515763713988865 | 0 |  | 151.7397305541489
PG&E's Adjusted Method |  | 48.72445072147455 | 52.20915305279087 | 33.23807531805115 | 134.1716790923166 |  | -20.75135460124607 | 0 |  | 113.4203244910705
Actual Credits on Bills |  | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |  | ??? | ??? |  | ???
Surcharges
1¢ Surcharge on DA Volumes |  | -3.12780578500903 | -2.904391086079814 | -8.60444671866163 | -14.63664358975047 |  | -36.67547293125284 | -85.50534647741831 |  | -136.8174629984216
3¢ Surcharge on DA Volumes |  | 0 | 0 | -21.75980463431738 | -21.75980463431738 |  | -141.656002344395 | -346.4204137853229 |  | -509.8362207640354
Impact of Changes to Status Quo
A. | CTC = $0 as of Jan 19 | 0 | -45.24413281279778 | -59.24035455399957 | -104.4844873667974 |  | 0 | 0 |  | -104.4844873667974
B. | CTC Using PG&E's Adjusted Method | 0 | 6.965020239993093 | -26.00227923594842 | -19.03725899595533 |  | -20.75135460124607 | 0 |  | -39.7886135972014
C. | No 1¢ Surcharge on DA as of Jan 5 | 3.12780578500903 | 2.904391086079814 | 8.60444671866163 | 14.63664358975047 |  | 36.67547293125284 | 85.50534647741831 |  | 136.8174629984216
D. | No 1¢ Surcharge on DA as of Sep 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |  | 36.67547293125284 | 85.50534647741831 |  | 122.1808194086712
E. | Return DA to [NAME] Sep 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |  | -141.656002344395 | -346.4204137853229 |  | -488.0764161297179
Notes and Comments:
1. | "Market Price" is defined as PX Price from Jan 5-Jan 18, weighted peak/off-peak blend of Dow Jones Index for the remainder of the Historical Period, and [NAME]
 | forward curves for the Forward Period.
2. | "PG&E's Adjusted Method" is based on information from a meeting with PG&E on Aug 1.  In that meeting, PG&E acknowledged that they have been adjusting the PX credit
 | downward since May to recover past undercollections, and would continue to do so through the end of September.  For example, in July they calculated their cost of
 | procured power (the number they are using as a substitute for PX price, which is a weighted average of the cost of their retained gen + QFs + DWR purchases) to be
 | approx $57.  They then adjusted this figure to $35, thus increasing the CTC by $22, to compensate for past PX credits that they deemed to have been too high.  We have
 | used their adjusted figures through July, and then assumed that they continue to use $35 (the July adjusted figure) going forward for the remainder of the CTC period.
3. | The figure associated with returning DA to bundled service for the period beyond Mar '02 is simply the average cost of the 3-cent surcharge (approx $41) times the PV
 | volumes.  We believe that the 3-cent surcharge will be replaced at some point with a somewhat smaller, yet more "permanent," surcharge designed to guarantee repayment
 | of the planned bond issuance and to recover some portion of past undercollections.  The timing and exact amount of this future surcharge remains uncertain, however, so
 | the existing surcharge is applied to give some indication of the order of magnitude.