Spreadsheet: jeff_dasovich__14212__proble~2
Sheet: problem 1 report

 |  |  |  |  | Crystal Ball Report
 |  |  |  |  | Simulation started on 4/30/00 at 10:16:27
 |  |  |  |  | Simulation stopped on 4/30/00 at 10:16:37
Forecast:  Difference between Bearing and [NAME] - C |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  D6
 | Summary:
 |  | Certainty Level is 33.800000%
 |  | Certainty Range is from 0.005000 to 0.008114
 |  | Display Range is from 0.000573 to 0.008114
 |  | Entire Range is from 0.000223 to 0.008519
 |  | After 500 Trials, the [NAME]. Error of the [NAME] is 0.000066
 | Statistics: |  |  |  |  |  | Value
 |  | Trials |  |  |  |  | 500
 |  | Mean |  |  |  |  | 0.004361097397357305
 |  | Median |  |  |  |  | 0.004231043073866236
 |  | Mode |  |  |  |  | ---
 |  | Standard Deviation |  |  |  |  | 0.001475646054898167
 |  | [NAME] |  |  |  |  | 2.177531279336525e-06
 |  | Skewness |  |  |  |  | 0.1243597083500364
 |  | Kurtosis |  |  |  |  | 2.680289484897373
 |  | [NAME]. of Variability |  |  |  |  | 0.3383657644959649
 |  | Range Minimum |  |  |  |  | 0.0002225064092498119
 |  | Range Maximum |  |  |  |  | 0.008518849062253753
 |  | Range Width |  |  |  |  | 0.00829634265300394
 |  | [NAME]. Error |  |  |  |  | 6.599289778963377e-05
Forecast:  Difference between Bearing and [NAME] - C  (cont'd) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  D6
 | Percentiles:
 |  |  | Percentile |  |  |  | Value
 |  |  | 0 |  |  |  | 0.0002225064092498119
 |  |  | 0.1 |  |  |  | 0.002490385970824516
 |  |  | 0.2 |  |  |  | 0.003085067809736497
 |  |  | 0.3 |  |  |  | 0.003513973965418637
 |  |  | 0.4 |  |  |  | 0.003909158015688807
 |  |  | 0.5 |  |  |  | 0.004231043073866236
 |  |  | 0.6 |  |  |  | 0.004679331728199787
 |  |  | 0.7 |  |  |  | 0.005157997657356139
 |  |  | 0.8 |  |  |  | 0.005655451466216932
 |  |  | 0.9 |  |  |  | 0.006309359689137262
 |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | 0.008518849062253753
End of Forecast
Forecast:  Difference between bearing and shaft - P |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  D8
 | Summary:
 |  | Certainty Level is 84.200000%
 |  | Certainty Range is from 0.005000 to 0.009000
 |  | Display Range is from 0.003735 to 0.010654
 |  | Entire Range is from 0.003584 to 0.011376
 |  | After 500 Trials, the [NAME]. Error of the [NAME] is 0.000062
 | Statistics: |  |  |  |  |  | Value
 |  | Trials |  |  |  |  | 500
 |  | Mean |  |  |  |  | 0.007263257757264997
 |  | Median |  |  |  |  | 0.007199258603743153
 |  | Mode |  |  |  |  | ---
 |  | Standard Deviation |  |  |  |  | 0.001387563653273628
 |  | [NAME] |  |  |  |  | 1.925332891886056e-06
 |  | Skewness |  |  |  |  | 0.2342936956628513
 |  | Kurtosis |  |  |  |  | 2.78404279917816
 |  | [NAME]. of Variability |  |  |  |  | 0.1910387459244072
 |  | Range Minimum |  |  |  |  | 0.003583521342379492
 |  | Range Maximum |  |  |  |  | 0.01137616029971289
 |  | Range Width |  |  |  |  | 0.007792638957333398
 |  | [NAME]. Error |  |  |  |  | 6.205373303655559e-05
Forecast:  Difference between bearing and shaft - P  (cont'd) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  D8
 | Percentiles:
 |  |  | Percentile |  |  |  | Value
 |  |  | 0 |  |  |  | 0.003583521342379492
 |  |  | 0.1 |  |  |  | 0.005490933960320188
 |  |  | 0.2 |  |  |  | 0.006068866610860923
 |  |  | 0.3 |  |  |  | 0.006421164647000377
 |  |  | 0.4 |  |  |  | 0.006801199643921896
 |  |  | 0.5 |  |  |  | 0.007199258603743153
 |  |  | 0.6 |  |  |  | 0.007569912289626668
 |  |  | 0.7 |  |  |  | 0.007996568877296606
 |  |  | 0.8 |  |  |  | 0.008406286957667208
 |  |  | 0.9 |  |  |  | 0.009057806333332863
 |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | 0.01137616029971289
End of Forecast
Forecast:  Difference between current and proposed |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  F7
 | Summary:
 |  | Display Range is from -0.01 to 0.00
 |  | Entire Range is from -0.01 to 0.00
 |  | After 500 Trials, the [NAME]. Error of the [NAME] is 0.00
 | Statistics: |  |  |  |  |  | Value
 |  | Trials |  |  |  |  | 500
 |  | Mean |  |  |  |  | -0.002902160359907692
 |  | Median |  |  |  |  | -0.002929959790712977
 |  | Mode |  |  |  |  | ---
 |  | Standard Deviation |  |  |  |  | 0.002002183981598182
 |  | [NAME] |  |  |  |  | 4.00874069616835e-06
 |  | Skewness |  |  |  |  | 0.1249484750416762
 |  | Kurtosis |  |  |  |  | 2.774556017762229
 |  | [NAME]. of Variability |  |  |  |  | -0.6898943315668005
 |  | Range Minimum |  |  |  |  | -0.00788200250131732
 |  | Range Maximum |  |  |  |  | 0.003045618053438059
 |  | Range Width |  |  |  |  | 0.01092762055475538
 |  | [NAME]. Error |  |  |  |  | 8.954038972629448e-05
Forecast:  Difference between current and proposed   (cont'd) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  F7
 | Percentiles:
 |  |  | Percentile |  |  |  | Value
 |  |  | 0 |  |  |  | -0.00788200250131732
 |  |  | 0.1 |  |  |  | -0.005437792970095057
 |  |  | 0.2 |  |  |  | -0.004563669027831785
 |  |  | 0.3 |  |  |  | -0.004066137245416601
 |  |  | 0.4 |  |  |  | -0.003500121721801475
 |  |  | 0.5 |  |  |  | -0.002929959790712977
 |  |  | 0.6 |  |  |  | -0.002444678811438283
 |  |  | 0.7 |  |  |  | -0.001840836509598764
 |  |  | 0.8 |  |  |  | -0.001188024956547795
 |  |  | 0.9 |  |  |  | -0.0003426792478091745
 |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | 0.003045618053438059
End of Forecast
 |  |  |  |  | Assumptions
Assumption:  Bearing Diameter |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  B6
 | Triangular distribution with parameters:
 |  | Minimum |  | 1.002
 |  | Likeliest |  | 1.004
 |  | Maximum |  | 1.007
 | Selected range is from 1.00 to 1.01
Assumption:  GBRC Shaft Diameter |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  C6
 | Normal distribution with parameters:
 |  | Mean |  | 1
 |  | [NAME]. |  | 0.001
 | Selected range is from -Infinity to +Infinity
Assumption:  C8 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  C8
 | Normal distribution with parameters:
 |  | Mean |  | 0.997
 |  | [NAME]. |  | 0.001
 | Selected range is from -Infinity to +Infinity
Assumption:  Proposed |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  B8
 | Triangular distribution with parameters:
 |  | Minimum |  | 1.002
 |  | Likeliest |  | 1.004
 |  | Maximum |  | 1.007
 | Selected range is from 1.00 to 1.01
End of Assumptions