Spreadsheet: benjamin_rogers__1088__LV Cogen
Sheet: Sensitivities

 |  | LAS VEGAS COGEN SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
 | [NAME] | No PA to PC | PA to PC | Base Case* | Base Case* | Market Case | Market Case | 1 x LM6000 SC | 1 x LM6000 SC
 | LOI 4/21/99 | Upgrade | Upgrade | w/ NYMEX | w/ fixed gas | w/ NYMEX | w/ fixed gas | w/ NYMEX | w/ fixed gas
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | United Equity Cash Flows (in thousands of US$)
ASSUMPTIONS
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 1993-06-30 00:00:00 | 1994-06-30 00:00:00 | 1995-06-30 00:00:00 | 1996-06-30 00:00:00 | 1997-06-30 00:00:00 | 1998-06-30 00:00:00 | 1999-06-30 00:00:00
Plant Output | 57MW | 50MW | 57MW | 57MW | 57MW | 57MW | 57MW | 104MW | 104MW |  | Investments | -513 | -12516 | -1405 | -2855 | -939 | -1086 | 0
NPC Contract Volume** | 45MW | 45MW | 45MW | 45MW | 45MW | 45MW | 45MW | 45MW | 45MW |  | Enron Net Cash to United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0
[NAME] | 5MW or 50MW | 5MW or 50MW | 5MW or 50MW | 5MW or 50MW | 5MW or 50MW | 0MW | 0MW | 0MW | 0MW |  | Nova Scotia penalty | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1600
Market Volume | 7MW | 0MW | 7MW | 7MW | 7MW | 12MW or 57MW | 12MW or 57MW | 59MW or 104MW | 59MW or 104MW
Forced Outages | 0.015 | 0.015 | 0.015 | 0.015 | 0.015 | 0.015 | 0.015 | 0.015 | 0.015
Avg. Heat Rate (btu/kwh) | 7800 | 8300 | 7800 | 7800 | 7800 | 7800 | 7800 | 7954 | 7954 |  | IRR
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | (57MW + 47MW) | (57MW + 47MW)
Market Optionality | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes
Market Wheeling Cost | $5.50/MWh | NA | $5.00/MWh | $5.00/MWh | $5.00/MWh | $5.00/MWh | $5.00/MWh | $5.00/MWh | $5.00/MWh
Wheeling Losses | 0.03 | NA | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01
Power Curve | PV Mid | NA | PV Mid | PV Mid | PV Mid | PV Mid | PV Mid | PV Mid | PV Mid |  |  | CONTRACT MONETIZATION:
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | PV of Contract Cash Flows |  |  | 195579.1398250629
Purchase Cost ($[NAME]) | 68 | 73.5 | 73.5 | 73.5 | 73.5 | 73.5 | 73.5 | 73.5 | 73.5 |  |  | PV of Replacement (Palo Verde Mid) |  |  | -95299.68154460096
United Net Gain (Loss) | 3.86 | 9.36 | 9.36 | 9.36 | 9.36 | 9.36 | 9.36 | 9.36 | 9.36 |  |  | PV of Above Mkt CF |  | 100279458.2804618 | 100279.4582804619
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Credit Reserve |  |  | -14000
Incr. Capex ($[NAME]) | 4.5 | 0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 |  |  | Value after Credit Reserve |  |  | 86279.4582804619
Yearly Fixed Opex ($[NAME]) | 3.93 | 3.54 | 3.65 | 3.65 | 3.88 | 3.65 | 3.94 | 5.17 | 5.79 |  |  | LOI Payments |  |  | -71000
G&A ($[NAME]) | 0.56 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 |  |  | Transaction Fee |  |  | -2500
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Funding Spread (BPS) |  | 75 | -6866.628693391546
17 year gas price | NYMEX Offer | NYMEX Offer | NYMEX Offer | NYMEX Offer | $2.35/mmbtu | NYMEX Offer | $2.35/mmbtu | NYMEX Offer | $2.35/mmbtu |  |  | MTM Earnings |  |  | 5912.829587070352
Curve Date | 1999-04-21 00:00:00
Variable Gas Transport | $0.06/mmbtu | $0.06/mmbtu | $0.06/mmbtu | $0.06/mmbtu | $0.06/mmbtu | $0.06/mmbtu | $0.06/mmbtu | $0.06/mmbtu | $0.06/mmbtu
Inflation (%) | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02
Debt/Equity Ratio | 80/20 | 80/20 | 80/20 | 80/20 | 80/20 | 80/20 | 80/20 | 80/20 | 80/20
Debt Amount | 64 | 60.5 | 66.4 | 66.4 | 66.4 | 66.4 | 66.4 | 82.5 | 82.5
Rate | 0.075 | 0.075 | 0.075 | 0.075 | 0.075 | 0.075 | 0.075 | 0.075 | 0.075
Term (years) | 15 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17
OUTPUTS - ECT Returns
Equity Investment ($[NAME]) | 14.5 | 16.7 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 21.2 | 21.2
NPV12 ($[NAME]) | 2.1 | -1.9 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 8
Equity Returns | 0.12 | 0.1037 | 0.132 | 0.144 | 0.151 | 0.151 | 0.152 | 0.175 | 0.167
[NAME] (Pre-tax) | 1.20x | 1.29x | 1.36x | 1.40x | 1.53x | 1.42x | 1.53x | 1.47x | 1.57x
Note 1*
Base case includes greenhouse payments and assumes a PA to PC conversion that generates excess energy that is wheeled and sold at Mead.
Market volumes are assumed to have daily optionality, computed using PV Mid.  Time value of the option is included as an additional source of revenue.
Note 2**
NPC Peak Summer hours: HE1100 to HE1200 (12 hours)
NPC Peak Winter hours: HE0600 to HE1000 (5 hours) and HE1700 to HE2400 (8 hours)
WSCC Peak hours: HE0700 to HE2200 (16 hours)