Spreadsheet: 3e0495be-c307-4df7-8b49-b8ca0ae395a8
Sheet: NEW REF-AFTER ELECTION

NEW REFERENDUM GROWTH - BEFORE ELECTION
NOVEMBER 2010 FORECAST - CSA
 |  | STATEWIDE |  |  |  |  | METRO DISTRICTS |  |  |  |  | RURAL DISTRICTS
 |  | REVENUE | EQC AID | TBRA | [NAME] | % AID | REVENUE | EQC AID | TBRA | [NAME] | % AID | REVENUE | EQC AID | TBRA | [NAME] | % AID
MAX POTENTIAL
AUTHORITY
 | FY 2005* | 846201780 | 202105465 | 8602824 |  |  | 463648594 | 63246706 | 796859 |  |  | 382553186 | 138858759 | 7805965
 | FY 2006* | 859411445 | 180876519 | 8614249 |  |  | 469739266 | 51558195 | 846845 |  |  | 389672179 | 129318324 | 7767404
 | FY 2007* |  |  |  |  |  | 715448777 | 40871146 | 810409 |  |  | 606489743 | 142844047 | 7158328
 | FY 2008* |  |  |  |  |  | 745827490 | 33470489 | 846839 |  |  | 621687883 | 124538603 | 7779437
 | FY 2009* |  |  |  |  |  | 758829706 | 15421465.65 | 846839.2 |  |  | 632069603.9999995 | 98961180.03000008 | 7771827.169999994
 | FY 2010* |  |  |  |  |  | 784596529 | 7265045 | 846839.2 |  |  | 651503134 | 78874214 | 7771827
 | FY 2011* |  |  |  |  |  | 774492059 | 6501872 | 846839 |  |  | 644958223 | 70849996 | 7746343
 | FY 2012 |  |  |  |  |  | 790254513 | 11737581 | 846839 |  |  | 653334954 | 69919994 | 7655114
 | FY 2013 |  |  |  |  |  | 800836541 | 20248938 | 846839 |  |  | 661543773 | 72429159 | 7655114
 | FY 2014 |  |  |  |  |  | 814190340 | 20419887 | 846839 |  |  | 671135488 | 71351971 | 7655114
 | FY 2015 |  |  |  |  |  | 829890376 | 19321433 | 846839 |  |  | 683431376 | 69237320 | 7655114
CURRENT AUTHORITY
 | FY 2005* | 425049704 | 92532894 | 8601213 |  |  | 323037108 | 47948255 | 796859 |  |  | 102012596 | 44584639 | 7804354
 | FY 2006* | 505376418 | 101491860 | 8613573 |  |  | 358077485 | 42311366 | 846845 |  |  | 147298933 | 59180494 | 7766728
 | FY 2007* |  |  |  |  |  | 359469429 | 30777213 | 810409 |  |  | 160839561 | 58432506 | 7158328
 | FY 2008* |  |  |  |  |  | 434030380 | 28415403 | 846839 |  |  | 196565486 | 64052310 | 7762424
 | FY 2009* |  |  |  |  |  | 494124250 | 13714070 | 846839.2 |  |  | 214607931 | 58837834 | 7740952.390000002
 | FY 2010* |  |  |  |  |  | 491983678 | 5951171 | 821213 |  |  | 202952646 | 47076524 | 7653820
 | FY 2011* |  |  |  |  |  | 550368568 | 5872113.759999999 | 846839.2 |  |  | 230679412 | 45757377 | 7746343
 | FY 2012 |  |  |  |  |  | 557313523 | 10697177 | 846839 |  |  | 238748598 | 47355135 | 7675802
 | FY 2013 |  |  |  |  |  | 560714944 | 18662722 | 846839 |  |  | 237847320 | 48536863 | 7675802
 | FY 2014 |  |  |  |  |  | 565713967 | 18871870 | 846839 |  |  | 237238546 | 47804739 | 7675802
 | FY 2015 |  |  |  |  |  | 571720854 | 17924775 | 846839 |  |  | 237339800 | 46508546 | 7675802
GAP AFTER CURRENT
ELECTION
 | FY 2003
 | FY 2004
 | FY 2005*
 | FY 2006*
 | FY 2007*
 | FY 2008*
 | FY 2009*
 | FY 2010*
 | FY 2011*
 | FY 2012
 | FY 2013
 | FY 2014
 | FY 2015
REQUESTED AS %
OF GAP
 | FY 2003* | 0.357
 | FY 2004* | 0.2669488236757382
 | FY 2005* | 0.253 | 0.3211808044964792
 | FY 2006* |  | 0.4496206880475483 |  |  |  |  | 0.8851344736665943 |  |  |  |  | 0.375293028312966
 | FY 2007* |  | 0.1874280742721845 |  |  |  |  | 0.2737847576360968 |  |  |  |  | 0.1771015411269414
 | FY 2008* | 0.1660721367940316 | 0.2729179258995759 |  |  |  | 0.2514290068854553 | 0.6911666725185658 |  |  |  | 0.09521693260095176 | 0.1824724627282477
 | FY 2009* | 0.2942563810815547 | 0.3370610088423078 |  |  |  | 0.4418256433944613 | 0.8016011333500381 |  |  |  | 0.1621797363818144 | 0.2656315968438625
 | FY 2010* | 0.1571444577347073 | 0.1370786653267118 |  |  |  | 0.2279291315199277 | 0.516241283410738 |  |  |  | 0.1109679274276032 | 0.1214117440606535
 | FY 2011* | 0.08788128592422681 | 0.2591260967039096 |  |  |  | 0.0808134884803077 | 0.2426357254787344 |  |  |  | 0.09186218593877925 | 0.259622326045968
 | FY 2012 | 0.1307607758057962 | 0.2346078873964947 |  |  |  | 0.140245644194865 | 0.2349960770704066 |  |  |  | 0.1255665855339307 | 0.2345914299639793
 | FY 2013e |  |  |  |  |  | 0.25 | 0.3 |  |  |  | 0.15 | 0.15
 | FY 2014e |  |  |  |  |  | 0.2 | 0.25 |  |  |  | 0.12 | 0.12
 | FY 2015e |  |  |  |  |  | 0.25 | 0.3 |  |  |  | 0.15 | 0.15
REQUESTED $
 | FY 2003
 | FY 2004
 | FY 2005 | 106683846 | 35692985 | 0 |  |  | 45945012 | 8184687.12 | 0 |  |  | 60738834 | 26322238.62 | 0
 | FY 2006 | 51833613 | 20049585 | 90182 |  |  | 8640908 | 2309689 | 0 |  |  | 43192705 | 17739896 | 90182
 | FY 2007 | 80604594 | 17712979 | 640526 |  |  | 43086090 | 2763565 | 36430 |  |  | 37518504 | 14949414 | 604096
 | FY 2008 |  |  |  |  |  | 91227822 | 9783429 | 0 |  |  | 41619115 | 11944102 | 17013
 | FY 2009 |  |  |  |  |  | 176581063 | 6022580.08 | 125994.05 |  |  | 72861971.99999994 | 12979266.53000002 | 201955.0199999912
 | FY 2010 |  |  |  |  |  | 66694993 | 678276 | 25626.2 | 65991090.79999995 |  | 49774718 | 3860613 | 118007.1699999943 | 45796097.83000001
 | FY 2011 |  |  |  |  |  | 19555352.99999988 | 201754.7599999988 | 22957.2 |  |  | 39465845 | 7173962 | 293758
 | FY 2012 |  |  |  |  |  | 33102922 | 251893 | 0.1999999999534339 |  |  | 54120835 | 5931295 | 20688
 | FY 2013e |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 25626.2 |  |  |  |  | 118007.1699999943
 | FY 2014e |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 25626.2 |  |  |  |  | 118007.1699999943
 | FY 2015e |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 25626.2 |  |  |  |  | 118007.1699999943
EST PASS RATE
 | FY 2003 | 0.416
 | FY 2004 | 0.8144972247669343
 | FY 2005 | 0.7032313120769943
 | FY 2006
 | FY 2007 | 0.8266341618196105 |  |  |  |  | 0.9175110807223399 |  |  |  |  | 0.7222714956865018
 | FY 2008 | 0.4743476095350245 |  |  |  |  | 0.559480527771451 |  |  |  |  | 0.2877388671046945
 | FY 2009 | 0.6685374037402962 |  |  |  |  | 0.7642771240990879 |  |  |  |  | 0.4365120944022757
 | FY 2010 | 0.612 |  |  |  |  | 0.7693128328238973 |  |  |  |  | 0.4016859366019793
 | FY 2011
 | FY 2012 | 0.2238035103211617 |  |  |  |  | 0.09347528293725853 |  |  |  |  | 0.3035185617516803
 | FY 2013e |  |  |  |  |  | 0.5 |  |  |  |  | 0.45
 | FY 2014e |  |  |  |  |  | 0.4 |  |  |  |  | 0.35
 | FY 2015e |  |  |  |  |  | 0.5 |  |  |  |  | 0.45
ANNUAL NEW $
 | FY 2005 | 73753541 | 20826745 | 63120 | 52863676 | 0.282 | 34384911 | 4100694 | 49986 | 30234231 |  | 39368630 | 16726051 | 13134 | 22629445 | 0.425
 | FY 2006 | 19063404 | 7819335 | 59032 |  |  | 3546606 | 518137 | 0 |  |  | 15516798 | 7301198 | 59032
 | FY 2007 |  |  |  |  |  | 39531965 | 2452661 | 36430 |  |  | 27098546 | 10512182 | 604096
 | FY 2008 |  |  |  |  |  | 51040190 | 9099863 | 0 | 41940327 |  | 11975437 | 4970718 | 0 | 7004719
 | FY 2009 |  |  |  |  |  | 134956867 | 5805792.43 | 125994.05 |  |  | 31805131.99999994 | 8738561.530000024 | 171080.2399999984
 | FY 2010 |  |  |  |  |  | 51309314 | 0 | 25626.2 | 51283687.80000001 | 0 | 19948245 | 2399838 | 118007.1699999943 | 17430399.83000001 | 0.12
 | FY 2011 |  |  | 316715.1999999993 |  |  | 17857809 | 201754.7599999988 | 22957.2 |  |  | 15452501 | 2612183 | 293758
 | FY 2012 |  |  |  |  |  | 3094305 | 31499 | 0 |  |  | 16426678 | 2718652 | 20688
 | FY 2013e
 | FY 2014e
 | FY 2015e
CUMMULATIVE NEW $
 | FY 2009 |  |  |  |  |  | 0 | 0 | 0 |  |  | 0 | 0 | 0
 | FY 2010 |  |  |  |  |  | 0 |  | 0 |  |  | 0 | 0 | 0
 | FY 2011 |  |  |  |  |  | 0 | 0 | 0 |  |  | 0 | 0 | 0
 | FY 2012 |  |  |  |  |  | 0 | 0 | 0 |  |  | 0 | 0 | 0
 | FY 2013e |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 0
 | FY 2014e
 | FY 2015e
* Percentage of gap calculated before passage of new elections for that year.
 | Not recalculated for current forecast data.
MODEL OUTPUT:
BEFORE ELECTION
FY 2012 NEW ELECTIONS-ALL
 | W/ NEW ELECTIONS |  |  |  |  |  | 587322140 | 10917571 | 846839.2 |  |  | 276442755 | 50567778 | 7675802
 | W/O ELECTIONS |  |  |  |  |  | 554219218 | 10665678 | 846839 |  |  | 222321920 | 44636483 | 7655114
 | NET NEW
BEFORE ELECTION
FY 2012 NEW ELECTIONS-RENEWALS
 | W/ NEW ELECTIONS |  |  |  |  |  | 557313523 | 10697177 | 846839.2 |  |  | 230281456 | 45738976 | 7675802
 | W/O ELECTIONS
 | NET NEW-RENEWALS
 | NET NEW AUTHORITY
AFTER ELECTION
FY 2012 NEW ELECTIONS-PASS
 | W/ NEW ELECTIONS |  |  |  |  |  | 557313523 | 10697177 | 846839 |  |  | 238748598 | 47355135 | 7675802
 | W/O ELECTIONS
 | NET NEW
AFTER ELECTION
FY 2012 NEW ELECTIONS-PASS
 | W/ NEW ELECTIONS |  |  |  |  |  | 550368568 | 5872113.759999999 | 846839.2 |  |  | 230790586 | 45829879 | 7746343
 | W/O ELECTIONS |  |  |  |  |  | 532510759 | 5670359 | 823882 |  |  | 215338085 | 43217696 | 7452585
 | NET NEW
 | NET NEW
 | PASSAGE RATE
FY 2012 NEW ELECTIONS-PASS-RENEWALS
 | W/ NEW ELECTIONS |  |  |  |  |  | 557313523 | 10697177 | 846839.2 |  |  | 229393381 | 45701856 | 7675802
 | W/O ELECTIONS
 | NET NEW-RENEWALS
 | NET NEW AUTHORITY
REQUESTED AS %
OF GAP
 | Renewals
 | New Authority
 | Total
PASSAGE RATE
 | Renewals
 | New Authority
 | Total
CHANGE FROM END OF SESSION,
TOTAL:
 | November Forecast Model
 | FY 2012
 | FY 2013
 | FY 2014
 | FY 2015
 | New Ref Growth
 | FY 2012
 | FY 2013
 | FY 2014
 | FY 2015
 | Total November Forecast
 | FY 2012
 | FY 2013
 | FY 2014
 | FY 2015
 | End of Session
 | FY 2012
 | FY 2013
 | FY 2014
 | FY 2015
 | Difference from EOS
 | FY 2012
 | FY 2013
CHANGE FROM END OF SESSION,
NEW REFERENDUM GROWTH VS. PUPIL/TAX BASE CHANGE:
 | Total November Forecast
 | FY 2009 | 723111857 | 79217394 | 8587792 | 635306671
 | FY 2010 | 808198367 | 62100576 | 8587792 | 737509999
 | FY 2011 | 918369520 | 47171038 | 8587792 | 862610690
 | Results of New Elections
 | FY 2009 | 170145481.9999999 | 15984820.96000002 | 297074.2899999983 | 153863586.7499999
 | FY 2010 | 178949653.9999999 | 11184907.21999997 | 297074.2899999983 | 167467672.4899999
 | FY 2011 | 183799592.9999998 | 6543626.150000021 | 297074.2899999983 | 176958892.5599998
 | Projected New Ref Growth
 | FY 2010 | 71138000 | 2775000 | 0 | 68363000
 | FY 2011 | 172510000 | 3835000 | 0 | 168675000
 | Total New Ref Growth
 | FY 2009
 | FY 2010
 | FY 2011
 | Net Nov Forecast
 | FY 2009
 | FY 2010
 | FY 2011
 | End of Session
 | FY 2009 | 727996293 | 77547630 | 8704000
 | FY 2010 | 785220800 | 56210292 | 8704000
 | FY 2011 | 857440116 | 42581621 | 8704000
 | Difference from EOS,
 | Data Changes:
 | FY 2009
 | FY 2010
 | FY 2011
 | Difference from EOS,
 | New Ref Growth:
 | FY 2009
 | FY 2010
 | FY 2011
 | Difference from EOS,
 | Total:
 | FY 2009
 | FY 2010
 | FY 2011
 | % Difference from EOS,
 | Total:
 | FY 2009
 | FY 2010
 | FY 2011
 | Total November Forecast
 | FY 2009 | 723111857 | 79217394 | 8587792 | 635306671
 | FY 2010 | 808198367 | 62100576 | 8587792 | 737509999
 | FY 2011 | 918369520 | 47171038 | 8587792 | 862610690
 | End of Session
 | FY 2009 | 727996293 | 77547630 | 8704000
 | FY 2010 | 785220800 | 56210292 | 8704000
 | FY 2011 | 857440116 | 42581621 | 8704000
 | EOS w/ New Data
 | FY 2009 | 730306080 | 77302226 | 8704000
 | FY 2010 | 788203062 | 58531050 | 8704000
 | FY 2011 | 861238910 | 44324251 | 8704000
 | Difference from EOS,
 | Data Changes:
 | FY 2009
 | FY 2010
 | FY 2011
 | FY 2014
 | FY 2015