Spreadsheet: a2a2b3c2-785e-4f79-bd0c-32af632cd556
Sheet: Summary

PROJECT TITLE | Implementation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa (v.2011.11.11)
IMPACT (GOAL) | Indicator | Baseline (2011) | Milestone (2012) | Milestone (2013 | Target (2014)
Developing countries will have the capability to estimate more accurately how climate change will affect their own agricultural productivity and  food security. | Improved global and regional agricultural projections in major regional reports and used to inform investment decisions. | 0 countries in target regions are basing their policies and planning on integrated model based evidence. | 3-5 countries in target regions use integrated model based evidence to  frame their policies and planning. | 8-10 countries in target regions use integrated model based evidence to  frame their policies and planning. | 16-20 countries in target regions use integrated model based evidence to  frame their policies and planning.
 |  | Source:  Citations in regional or global plans and/or reports issued by WBDR, FAO, WFP, IFAD, ICRAF, ILRI, SADC, AGRA, CGIAR.
 | Indicator | Baseline (2011) | Milestone (2012) | Milestone (2013 | Target (2014)
 | Target countries  in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia make effective policy and planning decisions based on AgMIP assessments. | 0 countries are basing their policies and planning on AgMIP assessments. | 3-5 countries are basing their policies and planning on AgMIP assessments. | 8-10 countries are basing their policies and planning on AgMIP assessments. | 16-20 countries are basing their policies and planning on AgMIP assessments.
 |  | Source:  Citations in IPCC AR5, UNFCCC SBSTA, NAP, other global and regional  assessments, etc.
OUTCOME (PURPOSE) | Indicator | Baseline (2011) | Milestone (2012) | Milestone (2013 | Target (2014) | Assumptions
Reliable and accessible assessment of  impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and S. Asia and improved evidence on priority potential adaptation strategies. | No. citations of AgMIP contributions on regional impacts to global and regional assessments including IPCC Working Group II AR5, UNFCCC. | 0 | 3-5 | 8-10 | 16-20 | Efforts to mitigate food insecurity and adapt to more food insecure environments will benefit from an early identification of crucial vulnerabilities and a modelling framework to test potential approaches.
 |  | Source:  Citations in IPCC AR5, UNFCCC SBSTA, NAP, other global and regional  assessments, etc.
 | Indicator | Baseline (2011) | Milestone (2012) | Milestone (2013 | Target (2014)
 | No. citations of AgMIP contributions on adaptation strategies to global and regional assessments including IPCC Working Group II AR5, UNFCCC. | 0 | 3-5 | 8-10 | 16-20
 |  | Source:  Citations in IPCC AR5, UNFCCC SBSTA, NAP, other global and regional  assessments, etc.
 | Indicator | Baseline (2011) | Milestone (2012) | Milestone (2013 | Target (2014)
 | No. locations with input scenarios and model datasets available on-line to allow on-going impact analysis in the regions post [NAME]. | 0 | 3-5 | 8-10 | 16-20
 |  | Source:  www.agmip.org
INPUTS (£) | DFID (£) | Govt (£) | Other (£) | Total (£) | DFID SHARE (%)
INPUTS (HR) | DFID (FTEs)
OUTPUT 1 | Indicator | Baseline (2011) | Milestone (2012) | Milestone (2013 | Target (2014) | Assumptions
Improved crop and agricultural economic  models as well as calibrated outputs for Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia through model simulations of baseline period and model intercomparisons | [NAME] team[1] protocols[2] and representative agricultural pathways[3] developed and validated for SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA and S Asia regions. | 0 | [NAME] from AgMIP Kickoff Workshop Establishment of a list of evolving variables included in Agricultural Pathways. | Publish protocols in peer-reviewed journal Establishment of a list of evolving variables included in Agricultural Pathways. | 4 protocols and 1 peer-reviewed journal article. | Researchers will contribute simulation results from their locally validated models that adhere to [NAME] protocols for calibration and intercomparisons.
 |  |  |  |  | 4 Pathways and 1 peer-reviewed journal  article.
 |  | Source:  [NAME] website: www.agmip.org;  Peer-reviewed journals.
 | Indicator | Baseline (2011) | Milestone (2012) | Milestone (2013 | Target (2014) | Local and regional data will be located/estimated that will suit the input requirements for crop and economic models.
 | Number of agricultural locations  and number of regionally important crops that demonstrate improved skill scores. | 0 | 20 sentinel sites in Africa and 20 in South Asia and 4 major  crops simulated – maize, wheat, rice, soybean. | 40 sentinel sites in Africa and 40 in South Asia and 6 crops simulated, including millet and sorghum. | 100 total in Africa and South Asia/ 20138 major crops simulated inc. sugarcane and cotton.
 |  | Source:  [NAME] website: www.agmip.org.
IMPACT WEIGHTING | Indicator | Baseline (2011) | Milestone (2012) | Milestone (2013 | Target (2014) | RISK RATING
0.4 | Peer-reviewed articles on crop and economic model intercomparisons. | 0 | Peer-reviewed article on crop model intercomparison. | Peer-reviewed article on economic model intercomparison. | 4 (2 per region). | low
 |  | Source:  Peer- reviewed journals
INPUTS (£) | DFID (£) | Govt (£) | Other (£) | Total (£) | DFID SHARE (%)
INPUTS (HR) | DFID (FTEs)
OUTPUT 2 | Indicator | Baseline (2011) | Milestone (2012) | Milestone (2013 | Target (2014) | Assumptions
Improved regional projections of climate change impacts on crop production and the associated economic implications and identification and prioritisation of regional agricultural adaptation strategies. | Number of future scenario simulation years for multiple crops and sites run for SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA and S. Asia, based on improved models. | 0 | Generation of climate input files to drive crop models. | Completion of minimum set of simulations for IPCC AR5. | Completion of simulations for 100 sentinel sites for 3 future time periods for 2 emissions scenarios. | AgMIP projections will span the range of  possible future climate scenarios in the regions.
 |  | Source:  [NAME] website:  www.agmip.org.
 | Indicator | Baseline (2011) | Milestone (2012) | Milestone (2013 | Target (2014)
 | Peer-reviewed articles on implications of climate change on regional agricultural production and economies, including adaptation strategies. | 0 | Publications  on climate change implications for regional agricultural  production and economies, including adaptation strategies. | Multi-authored peer-reviewed articles on climate change implications for regional and global agriculture, food security and economy, including uncertainty analysis. | 20 publications.
 |  | Source:  Peer-reviewed Journals; list on [NAME] website: www.agmip.org.
IMPACT WEIGHTING | Indicator | Baseline (2011) | Milestone (2012) | Milestone (2013 | Target (2014) | RISK RATING
0.4 | Peer-reviewed articles on analysis of cascading uncertainties. | 0 | Report on  baseline and future uncertainty analysis. | Peer-reviewed articles on future uncertainties. | 2 reports and 2 articles – one each per region. | low-med
 |  | Source:  Peer-reviewed Journals.
INPUTS (£) | DFID (£) | Govt (£) | Other (£) | Total (£) | DFID SHARE (%)
INPUTS (HR) | DFID (FTEs)
OUTPUT 3 | Indicator | Baseline (2011) | Milestone (2012) | Milestone (2013 | Target (2014) | Assumptions
Strengthened capacity of researchers (PIs) in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia to access and use crop and economic models. | Increased knowledge base and capacity to simulate impacts and adaptation of the SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA and S Africa researchers. | 0 | Successful completion of at least one study visit to each developing region PI. | Successful completion of simulations for developing region [NAME]. | 20 PIs capable of simulations, including adaptation strategies to the standard required. | Mitigation and adaptation decisions for climate change impacts on agriculture will be made in consultation with local researchers and specialists.
 |  | Source:  [NAME] website: www.agmip.org, training reports from site visits, quality assurance and quality control of simulation results by team leaders.
 | Indicator | Baseline (2011) | Milestone (2012) | Milestone (2013 | Target (2014) | Researchers will be supported by their home institutions to continue crop and economic model applications.
 | Number of calibrated crop and/or economic models actively run by each developing region PI. | 0 – 1 | Calibration of first (crop or economic) model for local conditions. | Calibration of second (crop or economic) model for local conditions. | Additional 1 – 3  calibrated models run.
 |  | Source:  [NAME] website: www.agmip.org.
IMPACT WEIGHTING | Indicator | Baseline (2011) | Milestone (2012) | Milestone (2013 | Target (2014) | RISK RATING
0.1 | Number of Sub-Saharan and South Asian researchers able to participate in AgMIP data analysis, research and/or assessment methods. | 0 - 10 | 20-30 | 50-80 | 120 + | medium
 |  | Source:  [NAME] website: www.agmip.org, training reports from site visits, assessment of uptake by team leaders.
INPUTS (£) | DFID (£) | Govt (£) | Other (£) | Total (£) | DFID SHARE (%)
INPUTS (HR) | DFID (FTEs)
OUTPUT 4 | Indicator | Baseline (2011) | Milestone (2012) | Milestone (2013 | Target (2014) | Assumptions
Researchers and end users in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia better able to access improved and relevant information on regional climate change impacts on agriculture. | Number of targeted briefs/ presentations for key regional policymakers. | 0 | [NAME] for  E Africa, W Africa, S Africa, and S Asia. | [NAME] dissemination workshop. | 8 presentations to policy makers. | Policy\ makers, stakeholders, and other end users will be able to attend a portion of AgMIP workshops.
 |  | Source:  [NAME] website:  www.agmip.org.
 | Indicator | Baseline (2011) | Milestone (2012) | Milestone (2013 | Target (2014) | Additional research initiatives will support continuing investigation of guiding questions.
 | Key regional policy questions identified and guiding model simulations. | 0 | 5 questions unified from scoping workshops in each region. | 10 guiding questions. | 15 questions guiding continuing studies.
 |  | Source:  [NAME] website:  www.agmip.org.
IMPACT WEIGHTING | Indicator | Baseline (2011) | Milestone (2012) | Milestone (2013 | Target (2014) | RISK RATING
0.1 | Quantity of AgMIP data downloaded from AgMIP online system in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. | 0 | 100 MB | 1 GB | 3 GB | medium - high
 |  | Source:  [NAME] website:  www.agmip.org.
INPUTS (£) | DFID (£) | Govt (£) | Other (£) | Total (£) | DFID SHARE (%)
INPUTS (HR) | DFID (FTEs)
Notes:
[1] There are four [NAME] teams: Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology.
[2] Set of consistent data collection, model validation, and simulation tasks for climate change impacts and adaptation assessment in the agriculture sector; set of standards that allows rigorous comparisons and improved characterization of uncertainties in climate change projections on regional and global agriculture.
[3] A coordinated set of scenarios characterizing potential future directions in agriculture and food security that will provide cross-scale and cross-disciplinary consistency with the climate projections arising from the IPCC Representation Concentration Pathways, simulations of the agricultural economic models, and field level simulations of the crop models.