Spreadsheet: 031358ab-5864-4006-afc6-60176459762e
Sheet: Chip

Population Estimates and Forecasts |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Trend-based Projection
Components of Population Change |  |  |  |  |  |  | Chippenham
 | Year beginning July 1st …………..
 | 2001 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2021 | 2025
All Births | 510 | 540 | 530 | 520 | 520 | 510 | 510 | 510 | 520 | 540 | 540
TFR | 1.732619335171192 | 2.34708510119397 | 2.315048806076548 | 2.276203139988387 | 2.24567054539346 | 2.200426787321168 | 2.155216604532929 | 2.114259980611418 | 2.074480235868733 | 1.85748403968902 | 1.728915478895485
All deaths | 360 | 350 | 340 | 340 | 340 | 340 | 340 | 340 | 340 | 360 | 380
Life expectancy | 80.80565061274619 | 81.82263140826612 | 82.21125770110987 | 82.44459461808725 | 82.70194892667465 | 82.86620504255839 | 82.99234436711374 | 83.16422106679651 | 83.33429654556862 | 84.01966715580859 | 84.4194959406121
All in-migrants from the UK | 2130 | 2300 | 2330 | 2330 | 2350 | 2370 | 2380 | 2400 | 2410 | 2480 | 2520
All out-migrants to the UK | 2380 | 2200 | 2200 | 2220 | 2240 | 2250 | 2260 | 2260 | 2270 | 2290 | 2340
All in-migrants from Overseas | 160 | 130 | 150 | 150 | 160 | 160 | 160 | 160 | 160 | 160 | 160
All out-migrants to Overseas | 160 | 140 | 160 | 160 | 160 | 160 | 170 | 170 | 170 | 170 | 170
Net Migrants UK | -250 | 110 | 130 | 110 | 120 | 120 | 130 | 140 | 140 | 190 | 180
Net Migrants Overseas | 0 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -10
Natural change | 160 | 190 | 190 | 180 | 180 | 180 | 170 | 170 | 180 | 180 | 160
Net migration | -260 | 100 | 120 | 100 | 110 | 110 | 120 | 130 | 130 | 180 | 170
Net change | -100 | 290 | 320 | 290 | 290 | 290 | 290 | 300 | 310 | 360 | 330
Summary of Population estimates/forecasts
 | Population at mid-year
Quinary Age | 2001 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026
0-4 | 2950 | 2700 | 2690 | 2740 | 2750 | 2730 | 2700 | 2670 | 2660 | 2720 | 2780
5-9 | 3080 | 2910 | 2890 | 2810 | 2830 | 2830 | 2820 | 2810 | 2860 | 2790 | 2860
10-14 | 2880 | 3080 | 3060 | 3100 | 3020 | 2980 | 3010 | 2990 | 2910 | 2970 | 2900
15-19 | 2270 | 3290 | 3290 | 3260 | 3260 | 3240 | 3220 | 3200 | 3240 | 3060 | 3120
20-24 | 2030 | 2590 | 2770 | 2870 | 3020 | 3140 | 3200 | 3220 | 3190 | 3220 | 3060
25-29 | 2790 | 1690 | 1800 | 1950 | 2100 | 2250 | 2350 | 2530 | 2630 | 2980 | 3020
30-34 | 3590 | 2000 | 1840 | 1730 | 1610 | 1570 | 1640 | 1740 | 1900 | 2600 | 2970
35-39 | 3890 | 3350 | 3100 | 2810 | 2530 | 2320 | 2120 | 1950 | 1840 | 2030 | 2790
40-44 | 3310 | 3910 | 3860 | 3810 | 3780 | 3630 | 3430 | 3180 | 2870 | 1870 | 2070
45-49 | 2680 | 3790 | 3900 | 3990 | 4010 | 3980 | 3960 | 3920 | 3870 | 2920 | 1900
50-54 | 2690 | 2980 | 3150 | 3300 | 3480 | 3660 | 3790 | 3910 | 4000 | 3890 | 2930
55-59 | 2210 | 2460 | 2510 | 2610 | 2690 | 2800 | 2960 | 3130 | 3280 | 3990 | 3890
60-64 | 1830 | 2550 | 2560 | 2570 | 2500 | 2450 | 2420 | 2470 | 2570 | 3250 | 3960
65-69 | 1610 | 1880 | 1980 | 2060 | 2250 | 2370 | 2470 | 2480 | 2500 | 2510 | 3190
70-74 | 1490 | 1550 | 1610 | 1630 | 1660 | 1710 | 1790 | 1880 | 1960 | 2390 | 2420
75-79 | 1210 | 1300 | 1280 | 1320 | 1320 | 1380 | 1420 | 1470 | 1500 | 1820 | 2240
80-84 | 830 | 990 | 1030 | 1030 | 1050 | 1090 | 1070 | 1070 | 1110 | 1310 | 1610
85-89 | 530 | 610 | 610 | 600 | 610 | 620 | 670 | 710 | 710 | 810 | 1000
90+ | 270 | 290 | 300 | 330 | 350 | 350 | 360 | 360 | 380 | 480 | 630
Total Population | 42140 | 43930 | 44220 | 44530 | 44820 | 45110 | 45400 | 45680 | 45980 | 47630 | 49340
0-2 | 1730 | 1620 | 1650 | 1640 | 1620 | 1600 | 1580 | 1570 | 1570 | 1620 | 1650
Pre-school 0-4 | 2950 | 2700 | 2690 | 2740 | 2750 | 2730 | 2700 | 2670 | 2660 | 2720 | 2780
Primary school 5-10 | 3700 | 3500 | 3510 | 3420 | 3370 | 3420 | 3430 | 3410 | 3390 | 3380 | 3430
Secondary school 11-15 | 2780 | 3130 | 3100 | 3080 | 3120 | 3040 | 3000 | 3030 | 3010 | 2940 | 2930
College/Sixth form 16-17 | 990 | 1320 | 1310 | 1310 | 1270 | 1250 | 1310 | 1270 | 1270 | 1280 | 1260
Total Children | 10420 | 10650 | 10610 | 10550 | 10510 | 10440 | 10440 | 10380 | 10330 | 10310 | 10400
Male 16-64 | 13510 | 14060 | 14070 | 14150 | 14120 | 14090 | 14080 | 14080 | 14130 | 14080 | 13790
Female 16-59 | 12270 | 12650 | 12750 | 12890 | 12950 | 13070 | 13180 | 13270 | 13340 | 13530 | 13240
Working age population WAP | 25790 | 26710 | 26820 | 27040 | 27080 | 27160 | 27260 | 27350 | 27470 | 27600 | 27030
Male 65+ | 2570 | 2890 | 3000 | 3070 | 3210 | 3360 | 3490 | 3590 | 3680 | 4250 | 5080
Female 60+ | 4350 | 5000 | 5100 | 5180 | 5290 | 5410 | 5510 | 5640 | 5780 | 6740 | 8090
Retirement age population RAP | 6920 | 7890 | 8090 | 8250 | 8500 | 8760 | 9010 | 9230 | 9450 | 10990 | 13170
Armed forces in barracks | 230 | 410 | 410 | 410 | 410 | 410 | 410 | 410 | 410 | 410 | 410
Prisoners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0
School boarders | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0
Total special populations | 230 | 410 | 410 | 410 | 410 | 410 | 410 | 410 | 410 | 410 | 410
Notes
The table above shows the Popgroup estimates output for 2001 and 2009, the latter year forming the starting point for the annual projections shown for the remainder of the projected period.
These estimates and projections are calculated using a 2001 Census base for each Community Area (using 01/04/2009 Community Area boundaries).
They incorporate ONS mid-year estimates 2001-2009, Vital Statistics of births and deaths 2001-2009, Patient Registration Statistics and ONS 2008 based Sub-National Population Projections.
These trend-based projections do not incorporate any housing policy figures and instead use recent trends to anticipate future populations.
This means assumptions for future levels of births, deaths and migration are based on observed levels mainly over the previous five years. They show what the population will be if recent trends continue.
Special populations shown above are independently controlled to pre-defined age structures and population totals.
All population figures have been rounded independently to the nearest 10.  0 signifies less than 5. Figures may not sum due to rounding.
This report was compiled from a forecast produced on 27/10/2010 using [NAME] software [NAME] by Bradford Council, the University of Manchester and Andelin Associates