Spreadsheet: jeff_dasovich__14021__Report for Dasovich Problem _2
Sheet: REPORT

 |  |  |  |  | Crystal Ball Report
 |  |  |  |  | Simulation started on 5/6/00 at 10:22:45
 |  |  |  |  | Simulation stopped on 5/6/00 at 10:25:19
Forecast:  Ending Cash Balance--March |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  [NAME]
 | Summary:
 |  | Display Range is from 250.00 to 379.55 $
 |  | Entire Range is from 250.00 to 641.79 $
 |  | After 5,000 Trials, the [NAME]. Error of the [NAME] is 0.62
 | Statistics: |  |  |  |  |  | Value
 |  | Trials |  |  |  |  | 5000
 |  | Mean |  |  |  |  | 266.6356829117787
 |  | Median |  |  |  |  | 250
 |  | Mode |  |  |  |  | 250
 |  | Standard Deviation |  |  |  |  | 43.54821894709424
 |  | [NAME] |  |  |  |  | 1896.447373464058
 |  | Skewness |  |  |  |  | 3.378034349148877
 |  | Kurtosis |  |  |  |  | 16.09051826896214
 |  | [NAME]. of Variability |  |  |  |  | 0.1633247976097144
 |  | Range Minimum |  |  |  |  | 250
 |  | Range Maximum |  |  |  |  | 641.7905990763027
 |  | Range Width |  |  |  |  | 391.7905990763027
 |  | [NAME]. Error |  |  |  |  | 0.6158648185217367
Forecast:  Ending Cash Balance--March  (cont'd) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  [NAME]
 | Percentiles:
 |  |  | Percentile |  |  |  | $
 |  |  | 0 |  |  |  | 250
 |  |  | 0.1 |  |  |  | 250
 |  |  | 0.2 |  |  |  | 250
 |  |  | 0.3 |  |  |  | 250
 |  |  | 0.4 |  |  |  | 250
 |  |  | 0.5 |  |  |  | 250
 |  |  | 0.6 |  |  |  | 250
 |  |  | 0.7 |  |  |  | 250
 |  |  | 0.8 |  |  |  | 258.7188009560518
 |  |  | 0.9 |  |  |  | 314.4503725425679
 |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | 641.7905990763027
End of Forecast
Forecast:  Ending Cash Balance--June |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  [NAME]
 | Summary:
 |  | Certainty Level is 88.60%
 |  | Certainty Range is from 300.00 to +Infinity  $
 |  | Display Range is from 250.00 to 860.57 $
 |  | Entire Range is from 250.00 to 1,019.49 $
 |  | After 5,000 Trials, the [NAME]. Error of the [NAME] is 2.00
 | Statistics: |  |  |  |  |  | Value
 |  | Trials |  |  |  |  | 5000
 |  | Mean |  |  |  |  | 479.6569095303465
 |  | Median |  |  |  |  | 471.8119171030655
 |  | Mode |  |  |  |  | 250
 |  | Standard Deviation |  |  |  |  | 141.4263574448801
 |  | [NAME] |  |  |  |  | 20001.41458012699
 |  | Skewness |  |  |  |  | 0.3840682676186961
 |  | Kurtosis |  |  |  |  | 2.75972594143544
 |  | [NAME]. of Variability |  |  |  |  | 0.2948489944267809
 |  | Range Minimum |  |  |  |  | 250
 |  | Range Maximum |  |  |  |  | 1019.487398450109
 |  | Range Width |  |  |  |  | 769.4873984501091
 |  | [NAME]. Error |  |  |  |  | 2.000070727755746
Forecast:  Ending Cash Balance--June  (cont'd) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  [NAME]
 | Percentiles:
 |  |  | Percentile |  |  |  | $
 |  |  | 0 |  |  |  | 250
 |  |  | 0.1 |  |  |  | 290.429035588922
 |  |  | 0.2 |  |  |  | 350.5591436187876
 |  |  | 0.3 |  |  |  | 394.3464121439181
 |  |  | 0.4 |  |  |  | 434.4671410733054
 |  |  | 0.5 |  |  |  | 471.8119171030655
 |  |  | 0.6 |  |  |  | 509.4831195552733
 |  |  | 0.7 |  |  |  | 550.5403803602444
 |  |  | 0.8 |  |  |  | 600.1242005739778
 |  |  | 0.9 |  |  |  | 667.4806236431766
 |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | 1019.487398450109
End of Forecast
Forecast:  Cash Flow--April |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  G26
 | Summary:
 |  | Certainty Level is 0.76%
 |  | Certainty Range is from -Infinity to 249.99  $
 |  | Display Range is from 232.72 to 811.02 $
 |  | Entire Range is from 122.48 to 974.34 $
 |  | After 5,000 Trials, the [NAME]. Error of the [NAME] is 1.57
 | Statistics: |  |  |  |  |  | Value
 |  | Trials |  |  |  |  | 5000
 |  | Mean |  |  |  |  | 526.5642342341353
 |  | Median |  |  |  |  | 527.4119070343208
 |  | Mode |  |  |  |  | ---
 |  | Standard Deviation |  |  |  |  | 111.0864136423102
 |  | [NAME] |  |  |  |  | 12340.19129591044
 |  | Skewness |  |  |  |  | -0.01896498220147369
 |  | Kurtosis |  |  |  |  | 3.031373194609518
 |  | [NAME]. of Variability |  |  |  |  | 0.2109646011257877
 |  | Range Minimum |  |  |  |  | 122.4811785977556
 |  | Range Maximum |  |  |  |  | 974.3378175744892
 |  | Range Width |  |  |  |  | 851.8566389767336
 |  | [NAME]. Error |  |  |  |  | 1.570999127683427
Forecast:  Cash Flow--April  (cont'd) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  G26
 | Percentiles:
 |  |  | Percentile |  |  |  | $
 |  |  | 0 |  |  |  | 122.4811785977556
 |  |  | 0.1 |  |  |  | 382.4571414924872
 |  |  | 0.2 |  |  |  | 432.4777068519006
 |  |  | 0.3 |  |  |  | 468.9171222318478
 |  |  | 0.4 |  |  |  | 500.1640846963091
 |  |  | 0.5 |  |  |  | 527.4119070343208
 |  |  | 0.6 |  |  |  | 554.7632323498101
 |  |  | 0.7 |  |  |  | 584.0091391160477
 |  |  | 0.8 |  |  |  | 619.8491927984478
 |  |  | 0.9 |  |  |  | 668.2182136395425
 |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | 974.3378175744892
End of Forecast
Forecast:  [NAME]--June |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  I27
 | Summary:
 |  | Certainty Level is 88.00%
 |  | Certainty Range is from -Infinity to -Infinity  $
 |  | Display Range is from 0.00 to 46.09 $
 |  | Entire Range is from 0.00 to 201.34 $
 |  | After 5,000 Trials, the [NAME]. Error of the [NAME] is 0.23
 | Statistics: |  |  |  |  |  | Value
 |  | Trials |  |  |  |  | 5000
 |  | Mean |  |  |  |  | 2.927261902762035
 |  | Median |  |  |  |  | 0
 |  | Mode |  |  |  |  | 0
 |  | Standard Deviation |  |  |  |  | 16.05418328990582
 |  | [NAME] |  |  |  |  | 257.7368011058911
 |  | Skewness |  |  |  |  | 7.199738637029578
 |  | Kurtosis |  |  |  |  | 62.8810785618078
 |  | [NAME]. of Variability |  |  |  |  | 5.484368609025998
 |  | Range Minimum |  |  |  |  | 0
 |  | Range Maximum |  |  |  |  | 201.344548500786
 |  | Range Width |  |  |  |  | 201.344548500786
 |  | [NAME]. Error |  |  |  |  | 0.2270404374140832
Forecast:  [NAME]--June  (cont'd) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  I27
 | Percentiles:
 |  |  | Percentile |  |  |  | $
 |  |  | 0 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.1 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.2 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.3 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.4 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.5 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.6 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.7 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.8 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.9 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | 201.344548500786
End of Forecast
Forecast:  Maximum Loan |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  B30
 | Summary:
 |  | Certainty Level is 11.56%
 |  | Certainty Range is from 250.00 to +Infinity  $
 |  | Display Range is from 0.00 to 377.43 $
 |  | Entire Range is from 0.00 to 542.75 $
 |  | After 5,000 Trials, the [NAME]. Error of the [NAME] is 1.41
 | Statistics: |  |  |  |  |  | Value
 |  | Trials |  |  |  |  | 5000
 |  | Mean |  |  |  |  | 122.4124671754328
 |  | Median |  |  |  |  | 107.0903411850832
 |  | Mode |  |  |  |  | 0
 |  | Standard Deviation |  |  |  |  | 99.84319379175835
 |  | [NAME] |  |  |  |  | 9968.663346538613
 |  | Skewness |  |  |  |  | 0.7270660512696275
 |  | Kurtosis |  |  |  |  | 2.957915708518033
 |  | [NAME]. of Variability |  |  |  |  | 0.8156292908357956
 |  | Range Minimum |  |  |  |  | 0
 |  | Range Maximum |  |  |  |  | 542.7522407715901
 |  | Range Width |  |  |  |  | 542.7522407715901
 |  | [NAME]. Error |  |  |  |  | 1.411995987709499
Forecast:  [NAME]  (cont'd) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  B30
 | Percentiles:
 |  |  | Percentile |  |  |  | $
 |  |  | 0 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.1 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.2 |  |  |  | 23.77553931518241
 |  |  | 0.3 |  |  |  | 53.21258231949059
 |  |  | 0.4 |  |  |  | 78.60882271265973
 |  |  | 0.5 |  |  |  | 107.0903411850832
 |  |  | 0.6 |  |  |  | 135.8708760196382
 |  |  | 0.7 |  |  |  | 166.3360087723993
 |  |  | 0.8 |  |  |  | 209.9707294319212
 |  |  | 0.9 |  |  |  | 263.4186934087638
 |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | 542.7522407715901
End of Forecast
Forecast:  Number of Months Loan Needed |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  B34
 | Summary:
 |  | Certainty Level is 0.22%
 |  | Certainty Range is from 3.00 to +Infinity
 |  | Display Range is from 0.00 to 3.26
 |  | Entire Range is from 0.00 to 4.00
 |  | After 5,000 Trials, the [NAME]. Error of the [NAME] is 0.01
 | Statistics: |  |  |  |  |  | Value
 |  | Trials |  |  |  |  | 5000
 |  | Mean |  |  |  |  | 1.241
 |  | Median |  |  |  |  | 1
 |  | Mode |  |  |  |  | 1
 |  | Standard Deviation |  |  |  |  | 0.7700893503493632
 |  | [NAME] |  |  |  |  | 0.5930376075215043
 |  | Skewness |  |  |  |  | 0.559506346212045
 |  | Kurtosis |  |  |  |  | 3.303669345468963
 |  | [NAME]. of Variability |  |  |  |  | 0.620539363698117
 |  | Range Minimum |  |  |  |  | 0
 |  | Range Maximum |  |  |  |  | 4
 |  | Range Width |  |  |  |  | 4
 |  | [NAME]. Error |  |  |  |  | 0.01089070803503155
Forecast:  Number of Months Loan Needed  (cont'd) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  B34
 | Percentiles:
 |  |  | Percentile |  |  |  | Value
 |  |  | 0 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.1 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.2 |  |  |  | 1
 |  |  | 0.3 |  |  |  | 1
 |  |  | 0.4 |  |  |  | 1
 |  |  | 0.5 |  |  |  | 1
 |  |  | 0.6 |  |  |  | 1
 |  |  | 0.7 |  |  |  | 2
 |  |  | 0.8 |  |  |  | 2
 |  |  | 0.9 |  |  |  | 2
 |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | 4
End of Forecast
 |  |  |  |  | Assumptions
Assumption:  Sales Forecast |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  D7
 | Normal distribution with parameters:
 |  | Mean |  | 1900
 |  | [NAME]. |  | 80
 | Selected range is from -Infinity to +Infinity
Assumption:  E7 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  E7
 | Normal distribution with parameters:
 |  | Mean |  | 1800
 |  | [NAME]. |  | 80
 | Selected range is from -Infinity to +Infinity
Assumption:  F7 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  F7
 | Normal distribution with parameters:
 |  | Mean |  | 2000
 |  | [NAME]. |  | 100
 | Selected range is from -Infinity to +Infinity
Assumption:  G7 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  G7
 | Normal distribution with parameters:
 |  | Mean |  | 2250
 |  | [NAME]. |  | 125
 | Selected range is from -Infinity to +Infinity
Assumption:  H7 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  H7
 | Normal distribution with parameters:
 |  | Mean |  | 2000
 |  | [NAME]. |  | 120
 | Selected range is from -Infinity to +Infinity
Assumption:  I7 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  I7
 | Normal distribution with parameters:
 |  | Mean |  | 2500
 |  | [NAME]. |  | 90
 | Selected range is from -Infinity to +Infinity
Assumption:  J7 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  J7
 | Normal distribution with parameters:
 |  | Mean |  | 2500
 |  | [NAME]. |  | 70
 | Selected range is from -Infinity to +Infinity
End of Assumptions