Spreadsheet: scott_neal__38013__NY City Forecast
Sheet: BUG Data

 |  |  | Coefficients
 |  |  | A | B | S1 | S2 | C1 | C2 |  | Load = A - B* [V(S1, C1) - V(S2, C2)]
 | Structuring |  | 922968 | 24192.5 | 29.8783 | 61.6054 | 0.46327 | 0.0819 |  | where
 | Trading |  | 1066740 | 23711.9 | 26.719 | 62.0825 | 0.29858 | -0.0096 |  | V(S, C) = Tavg * N(d1) - S * N(d2)
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | d1 = [ln(Tavg/S) + C2/2]/C
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | d2 = d1 - C
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | N( . ) is the cumulative normal
 |  |  | ( Based on Structuring Data Set) |  |  |  | (Based on Trading Data Set)
 | Forecasts |  | Date | Tavg | [NAME]  (bcf) |  | Date | Tavg | [NAME]  (bcf) with 2% growth 2000-01
 |  |  |  | 100 | 154554.5444145512 |  |  | 0 | 1088074.8
 |  |  |  | 98 | 154437.3823637948 |  |  | 1 | 1088074.8
 |  |  |  | 96 | 154303.1102599817 |  |  | 2 | 1088074.8
 |  |  |  | 94 | 154149.0779256077 |  |  | 3 | 1088074.8
 |  |  |  | 92 | 153972.2060520939 |  |  | 4 | 1088074.799998899
 |  |  |  | 90 | 153768.923900115 |  |  | 5 | 1088074.799863159
 |  |  |  | 88 | 153535.1236160003 |  |  | 6 | 1088074.795256167
 |  |  |  | 86 | 153266.1957189552 |  |  | 7 | 1088074.727698972
 |  |  |  | 84 | 152957.3410330621 |  |  | 8 | 1088074.173703215
 |  |  |  | 82 | 152604.697552414 |  |  | 9 | 1088071.190067235
 |  |  |  | 80 | 152208.6300964284 |  |  | 10 | 1088059.453971417
 |  |  |  | 78 | 151782.197169701 |  |  | 11 | 1088023.175173291
 |  |  |  | 76 | 151370.6478122203 |  |  | 12 | 1087930.316679539
 |  |  |  | 74 | 151091.2736092013 |  |  | 13 | 1087725.830257174
 |  |  |  | 72 | 151204.1029279492 |  |  | 14 | 1087327.111847017
 |  |  |  | 70 | 152215.9599279974 |  |  | 15 | 1086623.411987456
 |  |  |  | 68 | 154994.5459806378 |  |  | 16 | 1085479.80267262
 |  |  |  | 66 | 160824.8601216668 |  |  | 17 | 1083745.075309403
 |  |  |  | 64 | 171302.6391849634 |  |  | 18 | 1081262.084948626
 |  |  |  | 62 | 187986.5309178353 |  |  | 19 | 1077878.744895397
 |  |  |  | 60 | 211865.9371320299 |  |  | 20 | 1073458.048244557
 |  |  |  | 58 | 242888.2881099003 |  |  | 21 | 1067885.959326153
 |  |  |  | 56 | 279868.687235189 |  |  | 22 | 1061076.577468957
 |  |  |  | 54 | 320902.0016857677 |  |  | 23 | 1052974.47973203
 |  |  |  | 52 | 364039.6016414145 |  |  | 24 | 1043554.520328694
 |  |  |  | 50 | 407810.6079831503 |  |  | 25 | 1032819.583343565
 |  |  |  | 48 | 451348.207255683 |  |  | 26 | 1020796.997870821
 |  |  |  | 46 | 494218.7470621838 |  |  | 27 | 1007534.973460049
 |  |  |  | 44 | 536192.3398985348 |  |  | 28 | 993097.2600927972
 |  |  |  | 42 | 577096.249246554 |  |  | 29 | 977558.7524050917
 |  |  |  | 40 | 616755.2029303652 |  |  | 30 | 961001.7585406953
 |  |  |  | 38 | 654974.732134221 |  |  | 31 | 943512.4165069459
 |  |  |  | 36 | 691538.006565651 |  |  | 32 | 925177.4253661772
 |  |  |  | 34 | 726206.3145237465 |  |  | 33 | 906081.8015016695
 |  |  |  | 32 | 758721.9023074748 |  |  | 34 | 886307.146847254
 |  |  |  | 30 | 788814.2292023189 |  |  | 35 | 865930.4049832361
 |  |  |  | 28 | 816208.632967006 |  |  | 36 | 845023.048329851
 |  |  |  | 26 | 840641.9594282288 |  |  | 37 | 823650.6259763325
 |  |  |  | 24 | 861882.4171493845 |  |  | 38 | 801872.5996172207
 |  |  |  | 22 | 879758.1357630601 |  |  | 39 | 779742.3996998338
 |  |  |  | 20 | 894190.0756336635 |  |  | 40 | 757307.6419627995
 |  |  |  | 18 | 905229.5030506304 |  |  | 41 | 734610.4539719673
 |  |  |  | 16 | 913092.1533396383 |  |  | 42 | 711687.8707472391
 |  |  |  | 14 | 918176.8967775991 |  |  | 43 | 688572.2673806082
 |  |  |  | 12 | 921051.9839979879 |  |  | 44 | 665291.8042969726
 |  |  |  | 10 | 922391.4218753207 |  |  | 45 | 641870.867366658
 |  |  |  | 8 | 922857.0745724934 |  |  | 46 | 618330.4904493998
 |  |  |  | 6 | 922958.1815455299 |  |  | 47 | 594688.7522243883
 |  |  |  | 4 | 922967.8217048246 |  |  | 48 | 570961.1424719364
 |  |  |  | 2 | 922967.9999638749 |  |  | 49 | 547160.8954658136
 |  |  |  | 0 | 922968 |  |  | 50 | 523299.2899556034
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 51 | 499385.9164983502
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 52 | 475428.9137549216
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 53 | 451435.1758979655
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 54 | 427410.5335669382
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 55 | 403359.9109174487
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 56 | 379287.4612993205
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 57 | 355196.6840007358
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 58 | 331090.5243453079
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 59 | 306971.4592477424
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 60 | 282841.5701384224
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 61 | 258702.604969516
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 62 | 234556.0308228786
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 63 | 232593.8600733133
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 64 | 232621.6995875675
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 65 | 232645.0582013822
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 66 | 232664.6610543298
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 67 | 232681.1157648666
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 68 | 232694.9314052152
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 69 | 232706.5344463301
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 70 | 232716.2821461801
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 71 | 232724.4737835931
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 72 | 232731.3600788126
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 73 | 232737.1510895047
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 74 | 232742.0228261556
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 75 | 232746.1227926428
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 76 | 232749.5746253151
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 77 | 232752.4819764186
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 78 | 232754.9317644442
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 79 | 232756.9968943015
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 80 | 232758.7385336701
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 81 | 232760.2080179138
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 82 | 232761.448444202
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 83 | 232762.4960056407
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 84 | 232763.3811079167
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 85 | 232764.1293040424
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 86 | 232764.7620769465
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 87 | 232765.2974948135
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 88 | 232765.7507599705
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 89 | 232766.1346687306
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 90 | 232766.4599967324
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 91 | 232766.7358219399
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 92 | 232766.9697954684
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 93 | 232767.1683687363
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 94 | 232767.3369840444
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 95 | 232767.4802345349
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 96 | 232767.6019984872
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 97 | 232767.7055521233
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 98 | 232767.7936643815
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 99 | 232767.8686765904
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 100 | 232767.9325694567
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 101 | 232767.9870194317
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 102 | 232768.0334461373
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 103 | 232768.0730523064
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 104 | 232768.1068574228