Spreadsheet: vkaminski__40790__CASH_Elba_04112000wML
Sheet: RAROC

EXHIBIT 1:  ELBA TERMINAL
PROBABILISTIC MODELING ASSUMPTIONS |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018
[NAME] AND PARAMETER VALUES |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cash Flows
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Marginal Proability of Default (from SHIFTS) |  |  | 0.01264635982915452 | 0.009235088692560622 | 0.01069169053244057 | 0.014815283896496 | 0.01553776466613799 | 0.01356206482440525 | 0.01360444997637045 | 0.01829312892237722 | 0.02327261775042089 | 0.02601719295819793 | 0.02563590755568845 | 0.0242316478497363 | 0.02253185445930483 | 0.02083333127743792 | 0.01918689152629949 | 0.01918689152629949 | 0.01918689152629949 | 0.01918689152629949 | 0.01918689152629949
RAROC? (no=0) |  |  | 1 |  |  |  |  | Marginal Proability of No Default
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Default this year?  (0=YES, 1=NO) |  |  | 0.992 | 0.99 | 0.992 | 0.988 | 0.981 | 0.986 | 0.98 | 0.985 | 0.976 | 0.967 | 0.979 | 0.973 | 0.98 | 0.988 | 0.987 | 0.981 | 0.984 | 0.982 | 0.984
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cash flow multiplier (1 = no event, 0 = default)
 |  |  | Model | Year 1 | Distribution |  | Year 2 |  |  | Year 3 |  |  | Year 4 |  |  | Year 5
Algeria Cargoes/year |  |  | 17 | 16.50040284485511 | Mean | 16.5 | 15.7958795157878 | Mean | 15.8 | 15.18455592815301 | Mean | 15.18 | 14.50880880522481 | Mean | 14.52 | 13.85904375213458 | Mean | 13.86
[NAME] |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | 0.2 |  | [NAME] | 0.2 |  | [NAME] | 0.2 |  | [NAME] | 0.2 |  | [NAME] | 0.2
 |  |  |  |  |  |  | Year 2 |  |  | Year 3 |  |  | Year 4 |  |  | Year 5
Abu Dhabi Cargoes/year |  |  | 5 | 3.972 | Custom |  | 3.788 |  |  | 3.622 |  |  | 3.419 |  |  | 3.377
[NAME]
[NAME] |  |  | 1.65 | 1.593297292698758 | Lognormal | Mean | 1.65
 |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | 0.1
Elba Shipping Costs
 |  |  | Flat Charter |  |  |  |  | O&M Charter |  |  |  |  | Voyage Cost
 | Algeria |  | 0.174 | 0.1783740997833514 | Extreme Value | Mode | 0.174 | 0.1544173276631073 | 0.1566706025616723 | Extreme Value | Mode | 0.1544173276631073 | 0.2594211104740203 | 0.2614132343296714 | Extreme Value | Mode | 0.2594211104740203
 |  |  |  |  |  | Scale | 0.01 |  |  |  | Scale | 0.005 |  |  |  | Scale | 0.004
 |  |  | Flat Charter |  |  |  |  | O&M Charter |  |  |  |  | Voyage Cost
 | Abu Dhabi |  | 0.769 | 0.7741885863385486 | Extreme Value | Mode | 0.769 | 0.213 | 0.2179395974383302 | Extreme Value | Mode | 0.213 | 0.477 | 0.4827856746962779 | Extreme Value | Mode | 0.477
 |  |  |  |  |  | Scale | 0.01 |  |  |  | Scale | 0.01 |  |  |  | Scale | 0.01
Lake Charles Shipping Costs
 |  |  | Flat Charter |  |  |  |  | O&M Charter |  |  |  |  | Voyage Cost
 | Algeria |  | 0.428 | 0.4305120589745534 | Extreme Value | Mode | 0.428 | 0.119 | 0.1239829189329568 | Extreme Value | Mode | 0.119 | 0.227 | 0.2294455892113656 | Extreme Value | Mode | 0.227
 |  |  |  |  |  | Scale | 0.005 |  |  |  | Scale | 0.01 |  |  |  | Scale | 0.005
 |  |  | Flat Charter |  |  |  |  | O&M Charter |  |  |  |  | Voyage Cost
 | Abu Dhabi |  | 0.916 | 0.9210902169504253 | Extreme Value | Mode | 0.916 | 0.254 | 0.2593150127622681 | Extreme Value | Mode | 0.254 | 0.535 | 0.5396253024872415 | Extreme Value | Mode | 0.535
 |  |  |  |  |  | Scale | 0.01 |  |  |  | Scale | 0.01 |  |  |  | Scale | 0.01
[NAME] |  |  | 0.02 |  | Lognormal | Mean | 0.02
 |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | 0.005
Cargo Assumptions:
Capacity of 1 Newbuild |  |  | 3.223 | 3.183712380651434 | Lognormal | Mean | 3.223 | Capacity of 1 Mystic Lady |  |  | 2.046 | 2.056218869459625 | Lognormal | Mean | 2.046
 |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | 0.05 |  |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | 0.15
Shipping Costs: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | CFOUT01 | CFOUT02 | CFOUT03 | CFOUT04 | CFOUT05 | CFOUT06 | CFOUT07 | CFOUT08 | CFOUT09 | CFOUT10 | CFOUT11 | CFOUT12 | CFOUT13 | CFOUT14 | CFOUT15 | CFOUT16 | CFOUT17 | CFOUT18 | CFOUT19 | CFOUT20
Esc as % of CPI: |  |  | 0.6666666666666666 | 0.6681853054742888 | Lognormal | Mean | 0.6666666666666666 |  | CASH OUTFLOW
Escalation begins in 2003 |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | 0.05 |  |  |  | CFIN00 | CFIN01 | CFIN02 | CFIN03 | CFIN04 | CFIN05 | CFIN06 | CFIN07 | CFIN08 | CFIN09 | CFIN10 | CFIN11 | CFIN12 | CFIN13 | CFIN14 | CFIN15 | [NAME] | CFIN17 | CFIN18 | CFIN19 | CFIN20
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | CASH INFLOW
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | CI1-500 | CI1-501 | CI1-502 | CI1-503 | CI1-504 | CI1-505 | CI1-506 | CI1-507 | CI1-508 | CI1-509 | CI1-510 | CI1-511 | CI1-512 | CI1-513 | CI1-514 | CI1-515 | CI1-516 | CI1-517 | CI1-518 | CI1-519 | CI1-520
Terminaling Costs: |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cash Inflow Yrs 1-5
Esc as % of CPI: |  |  | 0.5 | 0.4988208330560374 | Lognormal | Mean | 0.5 |  |  |  | CO1-500 | CO1-501 | CO1-502 | CO1-503 | CO1-504 | CO1-505 | CO1-506 | CO1-507 | CO1-508 | CO1-509 | CO1-510 | CO1-511 | CO1-512 | CO1-513 | CO1-514 | CO1-515 | CO1-516 | CO1-517 | CO1-518 | CO1-519 | CO1-520
 |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | 0.05 |  | Cash Outflow Yrs 1-5
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | CO6+100 | CO6+101 | CO6+102 | CO6+103 | CO6+104 | CO6+105 | CO6+106 | CO6+107 | CO6+108 | CO6+109 | CO6+110 | CO6+111 | CO6+112 | CO6+113 | CO6+114 | CO6+115 | CO6+116 | CO6+117 | CO6+118 | CO6+119 | CO6+120
[NAME]: |  |  | All Yrs |  |  |  |  |  | Cash Outflow Yrs 6+ - Option 1
Flat Cost ($/MMBtu) |  |  | 0.25 | 0.2506968873142414 | Lognormal | Mean | 0.25 |  |  |  | CO6+200 | CO6+201 | CO6+202 | CO6+203 | CO6+204 | CO6+205 | CO6+206 | CO6+207 | CO6+208 | CO6+209 | CO6+210 | CO6+211 | CO6+212 | CO6+213 | CO6+214 | CO6+215 | CO6+216 | CO6+217 | CO6+218 | CO6+219 | CO6+220
 |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | 0.02 |  | Cash Outflow Yrs 6+ - Option 2
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | CI6+300 | CI6+301 | CI6+302 | CI6+303 | CI6+304 | CI6+305 | CI6+306 | CI6+307 | CI6+308 | CI6+309 | CI6+310 | CI6+311 | CI6+312 | CI6+313 | CI6+314 | CI6+315 | CI6+316 | CI6+317 | CI6+318 | CI6+319 | CI6+320
Fuel Cost (% of Prev Yr FOB) |  |  | 0.0135 | 0.01351960472978688 | Lognormal | Mean | 0.0135 |  | Cash Inflow Yrs 6+ - Option 3
 |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | 0.0005 |  |  |  | CO6+300 | CO6+301 | CO6+302 | CO6+303 | CO6+304 | CO6+305 | CO6+306 | CO6+307 | CO6+308 | CO6+309 | CO6+310 | CO6+311 | CO6+312 | CO6+313 | CO6+314 | CO6+315 | CO6+316 | CO6+317 | CO6+318 | CO6+319 | CO6+320
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cash Outflow Yrs 6+ - Option 3
Elba Island:
Flat Cost ($[NAME]/Yr) |  |  | 5.822238850900001 |  | Lognormal | Mean | 5.822238850900001
 |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | 0.5
Esc Cost ($[NAME]/Yr) |  |  | 5.5884170635 |  | Lognormal | Mean | 5.5884170635 |  | Cash Inflow Yrs 1-5 (net of default) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0
 |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | 0.5
Other Var Cost ($/MMBtu) |  |  | 0.02661547619047619 | 0.02651966924976924 | Lognormal | Mean | 0.02661547619047619 |  | Cash Inflow Yrs 6+ (net of default) |  | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0
 |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | 0.004
Fuel Cost (% of Prev Yr FOB) |  |  | 0.025 |  | Lognormal | Mean | 0.025
 |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | 0.001
Portion of Savings Given to Enron (vs [NAME]) ($/MMBtu):
 |  |  | 0.75 |  | Lognormal | Mean | 0.75
 |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | 0.05
ENA Marketing Costs on Non-VZ Volumes ($/MMBtu):
 |  |  | 1 | 1.001082161545054 | Lognormal | Mean | 1
 |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | 0.05
Esc. Fr 99 as % of CPI: |  |  | 0.5 | 0.4992055248031039 | Lognormal | Mean | 0.5
 |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | 0.05
Probability of Exit Scenarios
Option 1:  Resell Unutilized Capacity to Third Party |  |  | 3 | 2.389 | Lognormal
Total Operating Cost
Percent of total cost |  |  | 1 | 1.030210415903347 | Extreme Value | Mode | 1
 |  |  |  |  |  | [NAME] | 0.05