Spreadsheet: jeff_dasovich__14210__proble~4
Sheet: problem 2 report

 |  |  |  |  | Crystal Ball Report
 |  |  |  |  | Simulation started on 4/30/00 at 12:02:12
 |  |  |  |  | Simulation stopped on 4/30/00 at 12:02:54
Forecast:  March's cash balance |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  F23
 | Summary:
 |  | Display Range is from ($489,264.52) to $125,783.63 $
 |  | Entire Range is from ($515,451.84) to $164,101.19 $
 |  | After 500 Trials, the [NAME]. Error of the [NAME] is $5,084.47
 | Statistics: |  |  |  |  |  | Value
 |  | Trials |  |  |  |  | 500
 |  | Mean |  |  |  |  | -186793.237780763
 |  | Median |  |  |  |  | -185007.9452834169
 |  | Mode |  |  |  |  | ---
 |  | Standard Deviation |  |  |  |  | 113692.2010286884
 |  | [NAME] |  |  |  |  | 12925916574.74769
 |  | Skewness |  |  |  |  | 0.03473959128368088
 |  | Kurtosis |  |  |  |  | 2.882705910773186
 |  | [NAME]. of Variability |  |  |  |  | -0.6086526599112093
 |  | Range Minimum |  |  |  |  | -515451.8416365413
 |  | Range Maximum |  |  |  |  | 164101.1920429836
 |  | Range Width |  |  |  |  | 679553.0336795249
 |  | [NAME]. Error |  |  |  |  | 5084.469800234375
Forecast:  March's cash balance  (cont'd) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  F23
 | Percentiles:
 |  |  | Percentile |  |  |  | $
 |  |  | 0 |  |  |  | -515451.8416365413
 |  |  | 0.1 |  |  |  | -338195.538598726
 |  |  | 0.2 |  |  |  | -286166.1771762932
 |  |  | 0.3 |  |  |  | -246723.7681652007
 |  |  | 0.4 |  |  |  | -217523.4505340124
 |  |  | 0.5 |  |  |  | -185007.9452834169
 |  |  | 0.6 |  |  |  | -154333.7730691016
 |  |  | 0.7 |  |  |  | -126020.1186288416
 |  |  | 0.8 |  |  |  | -94258.28668210353
 |  |  | 0.9 |  |  |  | -44486.31536080688
 |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | 164101.1920429836
End of Forecast
Forecast:  June's cash balance |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  I23
 | Summary:
 |  | Display Range is from ($328,464.80) to $315,873.82 $
 |  | Entire Range is from ($421,091.26) to $426,580.37 $
 |  | After 500 Trials, the [NAME]. Error of the [NAME] is $5,568.94
 | Statistics: |  |  |  |  |  | Value
 |  | Trials |  |  |  |  | 500
 |  | Mean |  |  |  |  | 7204.215215123259
 |  | Median |  |  |  |  | 3325.113644560333
 |  | Mode |  |  |  |  | ---
 |  | Standard Deviation |  |  |  |  | 124525.393586166
 |  | [NAME] |  |  |  |  | 15506573647.78955
 |  | Skewness |  |  |  |  | -0.04928650548417269
 |  | Kurtosis |  |  |  |  | 3.056810602077032
 |  | [NAME]. of Variability |  |  |  |  | 17.2850740667435
 |  | Range Minimum |  |  |  |  | -421091.2611426716
 |  | Range Maximum |  |  |  |  | 426580.3728166409
 |  | Range Width |  |  |  |  | 847671.6339593125
 |  | [NAME]. Error |  |  |  |  | 5568.94489967167
Forecast:  June's cash balance  (cont'd) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  I23
 | Percentiles:
 |  |  | Percentile |  |  |  | $
 |  |  | 0 |  |  |  | -421091.2611426716
 |  |  | 0.1 |  |  |  | -150315.2046442274
 |  |  | 0.2 |  |  |  | -103424.88273519
 |  |  | 0.3 |  |  |  | -61610.74572252156
 |  |  | 0.4 |  |  |  | -22287.97462298023
 |  |  | 0.5 |  |  |  | 3325.113644560333
 |  |  | 0.6 |  |  |  | 40871.04069195455
 |  |  | 0.7 |  |  |  | 74567.0909585408
 |  |  | 0.8 |  |  |  | 116184.7291185148
 |  |  | 0.9 |  |  |  | 164314.547708746
 |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | 426580.3728166409
End of Forecast
Forecast:  Maximum loan amount |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  L28
 | Summary:
 |  | Certainty Level is 99.80%
 |  | Certainty Range is from $249,999.00 to +Infinity  $
 |  | Display Range is from $224,711.98 to $701,630.00 $
 |  | Entire Range is from $224,711.98 to $765,451.84 $
 |  | After 500 Trials, the [NAME]. Error of the [NAME] is $4,207.57
 | Statistics: |  |  |  |  |  | Value
 |  | Trials |  |  |  |  | 500
 |  | Mean |  |  |  |  | 455885.3635029402
 |  | Median |  |  |  |  | 445973.1080668453
 |  | Mode |  |  |  |  | ---
 |  | Standard Deviation |  |  |  |  | 94084.23476975839
 |  | [NAME] |  |  |  |  | 8851843232.211012
 |  | Skewness |  |  |  |  | 0.4520346402950793
 |  | Kurtosis |  |  |  |  | 2.870368778992299
 |  | [NAME]. of Variability |  |  |  |  | 0.2063769585556163
 |  | Range Minimum |  |  |  |  | 224711.9782848861
 |  | Range Maximum |  |  |  |  | 765451.8416365413
 |  | Range Width |  |  |  |  | 540739.8633516552
 |  | [NAME]. Error |  |  |  |  | 4207.57489112458
Forecast:  Maximum loan amount  (cont'd) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  L28
 | Percentiles:
 |  |  | Percentile |  |  |  | $
 |  |  | 0 |  |  |  | 224711.9782848861
 |  |  | 0.1 |  |  |  | 345805.9156737204
 |  |  | 0.2 |  |  |  | 374741.2127854889
 |  |  | 0.3 |  |  |  | 396292.3016753604
 |  |  | 0.4 |  |  |  | 419445.3873131796
 |  |  | 0.5 |  |  |  | 445973.1080668453
 |  |  | 0.6 |  |  |  | 471721.9386873019
 |  |  | 0.7 |  |  |  | 501402.6933273319
 |  |  | 0.8 |  |  |  | 537748.8811162272
 |  |  | 0.9 |  |  |  | 588301.3126184044
 |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | 765451.8416365413
End of Forecast
Forecast:  April Loan Amount |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  G27
 | Summary:
 |  | Display Range is from $0.00 to $18,449.52 $
 |  | Entire Range is from $0.00 to $137,108.42 $
 |  | After 500 Trials, the [NAME]. Error of the [NAME] is $293.12
 | Statistics: |  |  |  |  |  | Value
 |  | Trials |  |  |  |  | 500
 |  | Mean |  |  |  |  | 440.0794596331111
 |  | Median |  |  |  |  | 0
 |  | Mode |  |  |  |  | 0
 |  | Standard Deviation |  |  |  |  | 6554.324449256152
 |  | [NAME] |  |  |  |  | 42959168.98611695
 |  | Skewness |  |  |  |  | 18.80957656231963
 |  | Kurtosis |  |  |  |  | 381.9730659096354
 |  | [NAME]. of Variability |  |  |  |  | 14.89350231142442
 |  | Range Minimum |  |  |  |  | 0
 |  | Range Maximum |  |  |  |  | 137108.4219303
 |  | Range Width |  |  |  |  | 137108.4219303
 |  | [NAME]. Error |  |  |  |  | 293.1183003025125
Forecast:  April Loan Amount  (cont'd) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  G27
 | Percentiles:
 |  |  | Percentile |  |  |  | $
 |  |  | 0 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.1 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.2 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.3 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.4 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.5 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.6 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.7 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.8 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.9 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | 137108.4219303
End of Forecast
Forecast:  June Loan Amount |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  I27
 | Summary:
 |  | Certainty Level is 88.00%
 |  | Certainty Range is from -Infinity to $395,295.51  $
 |  | Display Range is from $0.00 to $576,116.88 $
 |  | Entire Range is from $0.00 to $671,170.17 $
 |  | After 500 Trials, the [NAME]. Error of the [NAME] is $5,415.69
 | Statistics: |  |  |  |  |  | Value
 |  | Trials |  |  |  |  | 500
 |  | Mean |  |  |  |  | 246203.8662066676
 |  | Median |  |  |  |  | 247015.2073861944
 |  | Mode |  |  |  |  | 0
 |  | Standard Deviation |  |  |  |  | 121098.451661376
 |  | [NAME] |  |  |  |  | 14664834994.78262
 |  | Skewness |  |  |  |  | 0.1918710874812891
 |  | Kurtosis |  |  |  |  | 2.773301145800536
 |  | [NAME]. of Variability |  |  |  |  | 0.4918625102325727
 |  | Range Minimum |  |  |  |  | 0
 |  | Range Maximum |  |  |  |  | 671170.16852259
 |  | Range Width |  |  |  |  | 671170.16852259
 |  | [NAME]. Error |  |  |  |  | 5415.687397696182
Forecast:  June Loan Amount  (cont'd) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  I27
 | Percentiles:
 |  |  | Percentile |  |  |  | $
 |  |  | 0 |  |  |  | 0
 |  |  | 0.1 |  |  |  | 86042.9466170132
 |  |  | 0.2 |  |  |  | 136238.4242591967
 |  |  | 0.3 |  |  |  | 177411.3769152449
 |  |  | 0.4 |  |  |  | 210486.9598527217
 |  |  | 0.5 |  |  |  | 247015.2073861944
 |  |  | 0.6 |  |  |  | 274615.2056902198
 |  |  | 0.7 |  |  |  | 312107.512935393
 |  |  | 0.8 |  |  |  | 354238.1717754518
 |  |  | 0.9 |  |  |  | 401226.5166469899
 |  |  | 1 |  |  |  | 671170.16852259
End of Forecast
 |  |  |  |  | Assumptions
Assumption:  January sales |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  D8
 | Normal distribution with parameters:
 |  | Mean |  | 1900000
 |  | [NAME]. |  | 80000
 | Selected range is from -Infinity to +Infinity
Assumption:  February sales |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  E8
 | Normal distribution with parameters:
 |  | Mean |  | 1800000
 |  | [NAME]. |  | 80000
 | Selected range is from -Infinity to +Infinity
Assumption:  March sales |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  F8
 | Normal distribution with parameters:
 |  | Mean |  | 2000000
 |  | [NAME]. |  | 100000
 | Selected range is from -Infinity to +Infinity
Assumption:  April sales |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  G8
 | Normal distribution with parameters:
 |  | Mean |  | 2250000
 |  | [NAME]. |  | 125000
 | Selected range is from -Infinity to +Infinity
Assumption:  May sales |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  H8
 | Normal distribution with parameters:
 |  | Mean |  | 2000000
 |  | [NAME]. |  | 120000
 | Selected range is from -Infinity to +Infinity
Assumption:  June sales |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  I8
 | Normal distribution with parameters:
 |  | Mean |  | 2500000
 |  | [NAME]. |  | 90000
 | Selected range is from -Infinity to +Infinity
Assumption:  July sales |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cell:  J8
 | Normal distribution with parameters:
 |  | Mean |  | 2700000
 |  | [NAME]. |  | 70000
 | Selected range is from -Infinity to +Infinity
End of Assumptions