Spreadsheet: vkaminski__40668__OptionPricingSpain
Sheet: Distributions

LOGNORMAL TO NORMAL |  |  |  |  |  |  | Today
 |  |  |  |  |  | £/MWh |  |  |  | £/MWh | Error | Error^2
Assumed Volatility |  |  | 0.23 |  | [NAME] |  | [NAME] | 0.1615740015389251 | s
[NAME] (Years) |  |  | 0.5 |  | Raw Mean |  | Lognormal Mean | 1.445561651421545 | m
Current Forward Price (£/MWh) |  |  | 4.3
Below | 0.1 | LowEst |  | LogNorm |  |  | Median of
Above |  | HighEst |  | LogNorm |  |  | Lognormal
Below | 0.05 | LowEst |  | LogNorm
Above |  | HighEst |  | LogNorm
P | ln(P) | LogNormal | Normal Centre
0.0001
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
1.25
1.3
1.35
1.4
1.45
1.5
1.55
1.6
1.65
1.7
1.75
1.8
1.85
1.9
1.95
2
2.05
2.1
2.15
2.2
2.25
2.3
2.35
2.4
2.45
2.5
2.55
2.6
2.65
2.7
2.75
2.8
2.85
2.9
2.95
3
3.05
3.1
3.15
3.2
3.25
3.3
3.35
3.4
3.45
3.5
3.55
3.6
3.65
3.7
3.75
3.8
3.85
3.9
3.95
4
4.05
4.1
4.15
4.2
4.25
4.3
4.35
4.4
4.45
4.5
4.55
4.6
4.65
4.7
4.75
4.8
4.85
4.9
4.95
5
5.05
5.1
5.15
5.2
5.25
5.3
5.35
5.39999999999999
5.44999999999999
5.49999999999999
5.54999999999999
5.59999999999999
5.64999999999999
5.69999999999999
5.74999999999999
5.79999999999999
5.84999999999999
5.89999999999999
5.94999999999999
5.99999999999999
6.04999999999999
6.09999999999999
6.14999999999999
6.19999999999999
6.24999999999999
6.29999999999999
6.34999999999999
6.39999999999999
6.44999999999999
6.49999999999999
6.54999999999999
6.59999999999999
6.64999999999999
6.69999999999999
6.74999999999999
6.79999999999999
6.84999999999999
6.89999999999999
6.94999999999999
6.99999999999999
7.04999999999999
7.09999999999999
7.14999999999999
7.19999999999999
7.24999999999999
7.29999999999999
7.34999999999999
7.39999999999999
7.44999999999999
7.49999999999999
7.54999999999999
7.59999999999999
7.64999999999999
7.69999999999999
7.74999999999999
7.79999999999999
7.84999999999999
7.89999999999999
7.94999999999999
7.99999999999999
8.04999999999999
8.09999999999999
8.14999999999999
8.19999999999998
8.24999999999998
8.29999999999998
8.34999999999998
8.39999999999998
8.44999999999998
8.49999999999998
8.54999999999998
8.59999999999998
8.64999999999998
8.69999999999998
8.74999999999998
8.79999999999998
8.84999999999998
8.89999999999998
8.94999999999998
8.99999999999998
9.04999999999998
9.09999999999998
9.14999999999998
9.19999999999998
9.24999999999998
9.29999999999998
9.34999999999998
9.39999999999998
9.44999999999998
9.49999999999998
9.54999999999998
9.59999999999998
9.64999999999998
9.69999999999998
9.74999999999998
9.79999999999998
9.84999999999998
9.89999999999998
9.94999999999998
9.99999999999998
10.05
10.1
10.15
10.2
10.25
10.3
10.35
10.4
10.45
10.5
10.55
10.6
10.65
10.7
10.75
10.8
10.85
10.9
10.95
11
11.05
11.1
11.15
11.2
11.25
11.3
11.35
11.4
11.45
11.5
11.55
11.6
11.65
11.7
11.75
11.8
11.85
11.9
11.95
12
12.05
12.1
12.15
12.2
12.25
12.3
12.35
12.4
12.45
12.5
12.55
12.6
12.65
12.7
12.75
12.8
12.85
12.9
12.95
13
13.05
13.1
13.15
13.2
13.25
13.3
13.35
13.4
13.45
13.5
13.55
13.6
13.65
13.7
13.75
13.8
13.85
13.9
13.95
14
14.05
14.1
14.15
14.2
14.25
14.3
14.35
14.4
14.45
14.5
14.55
14.6
14.65
14.7
14.75
14.8
14.85
14.9
14.95
15
15.05
15.1
15.15
15.2
15.25
15.3
15.35
15.4
15.45
15.5
15.55
15.6
15.65
15.7
15.75
15.8
15.85
15.9
15.95
16
16.05
16.1
16.15
16.2
16.25
16.3
16.35
16.4
16.45
16.5
16.55
16.6
16.65
16.7
16.75
16.8
16.85
16.9
16.95
17
17.05
17.1
17.15
17.2
17.25
17.3
17.35
17.4
17.45
17.5
17.55
17.6
17.65
17.7
17.75
17.8
17.85
17.8999999999999
17.95
18
18.0499999999999
18.0999999999999
18.1499999999999
18.2
18.2499999999999
18.2999999999999
18.3499999999999
18.3999999999999
18.4499999999999
18.4999999999999
18.5499999999999
18.5999999999999
18.6499999999999
18.6999999999999
18.7499999999999
18.7999999999999
18.8499999999999
18.8999999999999
18.9499999999999
18.9999999999999
19.0499999999999
19.0999999999999
19.1499999999999
19.1999999999999
19.2499999999999
19.2999999999999
19.3499999999999
19.3999999999999
19.4499999999999
19.4999999999999
19.5499999999999
19.5999999999999
19.6499999999999
19.6999999999999
19.7499999999999
19.7999999999999
19.8499999999999
19.8999999999999
19.9499999999999
19.9999999999999
20.0499999999999
20.0999999999999
20.1499999999999
20.1999999999999
20.2499999999999
20.2999999999999
20.3499999999999
20.3999999999999
20.4499999999999
20.4999999999999
20.5499999999999
20.5999999999999
20.6499999999999
20.6999999999999
20.7499999999999
20.7999999999999
20.8499999999999
20.8999999999999
20.9499999999999
20.9999999999999
21.0499999999999
21.0999999999999
21.1499999999999
21.1999999999999
21.2499999999999
21.2999999999999
21.3499999999999
21.3999999999999
21.4499999999999
21.4999999999999
21.5499999999999
21.5999999999999
21.6499999999999
21.6999999999999
21.7499999999999
21.7999999999999
21.8499999999999
21.8999999999999
21.9499999999999
21.9999999999999
22.0499999999999
22.0999999999999
22.1499999999999
22.1999999999999
22.2499999999999
22.2999999999999
22.3499999999999
22.3999999999999
22.4499999999999
22.4999999999999
22.5499999999999
22.5999999999999
22.6499999999999
22.6999999999999
22.7499999999999
22.7999999999999
22.8499999999999
22.8999999999999
22.9499999999999
22.9999999999999
23.0499999999999
23.0999999999999
23.1499999999999
23.1999999999999
23.2499999999999
23.2999999999999
23.3499999999999
23.3999999999999
23.4499999999999
23.4999999999999
23.5499999999999
23.5999999999999
23.6499999999999
23.6999999999999
23.7499999999999
23.7999999999999
23.8499999999999
23.8999999999999
23.9499999999999
23.9999999999999
24.0499999999999
24.0999999999999
24.1499999999999
24.1999999999999
24.2499999999999
24.2999999999999
24.3499999999999
24.3999999999999
24.4499999999999
24.4999999999999
24.5499999999999
24.5999999999999
24.6499999999999
24.6999999999999
24.7499999999999
24.7999999999999
24.8499999999999
24.8999999999999
24.9499999999999
24.9999999999999
25.0499999999999
25.0999999999999
25.1499999999999
25.1999999999999
25.2499999999999
25.2999999999999
25.3499999999999
25.3999999999999
25.4499999999999
25.4999999999999
25.5499999999999
25.5999999999999
25.6499999999999
25.6999999999999
25.7499999999999
25.7999999999999
25.8499999999999
25.8999999999999
25.9499999999999
25.9999999999999
26.0499999999999
26.0999999999999
26.1499999999999
26.1999999999999
26.2499999999999
26.2999999999999
26.3499999999999
26.3999999999999
26.4499999999999
26.4999999999999
26.5499999999999
26.5999999999999
26.6499999999999
26.6999999999999
26.7499999999999
26.7999999999999
26.8499999999999
26.8999999999999
26.9499999999999
26.9999999999999
27.0499999999999
27.0999999999999
27.1499999999999
27.1999999999999
27.2499999999999
27.2999999999999
27.3499999999999
27.3999999999999
27.4499999999999
27.4999999999999
27.5499999999999
27.5999999999999
27.6499999999999
27.6999999999999
27.7499999999999
27.7999999999999
27.8499999999999
27.8999999999999
27.9499999999999
27.9999999999999
28.0499999999999
28.0999999999999
28.1499999999999
28.1999999999999
28.2499999999999
28.2999999999999
28.3499999999999
28.3999999999999
28.4499999999999
28.4999999999999
28.5499999999999
28.5999999999999
28.6499999999999
28.6999999999999
28.7499999999999
28.7999999999999
28.8499999999999
28.8999999999999
28.9499999999999
28.9999999999999
29.0499999999999
29.0999999999999
29.1499999999999
29.1999999999999
29.2499999999999
29.2999999999999
29.3499999999999
29.3999999999999
29.4499999999999
29.4999999999999
29.5499999999999
29.5999999999999
29.6499999999999
29.6999999999999
29.7499999999999
29.7999999999999
29.8499999999999
29.8999999999999
29.9499999999999
29.9999999999999
30.0499999999999
30.0999999999999
30.1499999999999
30.1999999999999
30.2499999999999
30.2999999999999
30.3499999999999
30.3999999999999
30.4499999999999
30.4999999999999
30.5499999999999
30.5999999999999
30.6499999999999
30.6999999999999
30.7499999999999
30.7999999999999
30.8499999999999
30.8999999999999
30.9499999999999
30.9999999999999
31.0499999999999
31.0999999999999
31.1499999999999
31.1999999999999
31.2499999999999
31.2999999999999
31.3499999999999
31.3999999999999
31.4499999999999
31.4999999999999
31.5499999999999
31.5999999999999
31.6499999999999
31.6999999999999
31.7499999999999
31.7999999999999
31.8499999999999
31.8999999999999
31.9499999999999
31.9999999999999
32.0499999999999
32.0999999999999
32.1499999999999
32.1999999999999
32.2499999999999
32.2999999999999
32.3499999999999
32.3999999999999
32.4499999999999
32.4999999999999
32.5499999999999
32.5999999999999
32.6499999999999
32.6999999999999
32.7499999999999
32.7999999999999
32.8499999999999
32.8999999999999
32.9499999999999
32.9999999999999
33.0499999999999
33.0999999999999
33.1499999999999
33.1999999999999
33.2499999999999
33.2999999999999
33.3499999999999
33.3999999999999
33.4499999999999
33.4999999999999
33.5499999999999
33.5999999999999
33.6499999999999
33.6999999999999
33.7499999999999
33.7999999999999
33.8499999999999
33.8999999999999
33.9499999999999
33.9999999999999
34.0499999999999
34.0999999999999
34.1499999999999
34.1999999999999
34.2499999999999
34.2999999999999
34.3499999999999
34.3999999999999
34.4499999999999
34.4999999999999
34.5499999999999
34.5999999999999
34.6499999999999
34.6999999999999
34.7499999999999
34.7999999999999
34.8499999999999
34.8999999999999
34.9499999999999
34.9999999999999
35.0499999999999
35.0999999999999
35.1499999999999
35.1999999999999
35.2499999999999
35.2999999999999
35.3499999999999
35.3999999999999
35.4499999999999
35.4999999999999
35.5499999999999
35.5999999999999
35.6499999999999
35.6999999999999
35.7499999999999
35.7999999999999
35.8499999999999
35.8999999999999
35.9499999999999
35.9999999999999
36.0499999999999
36.0999999999999
36.1499999999999
36.1999999999999
36.2499999999999
36.2999999999999
36.3499999999999
36.3999999999999
36.4499999999999
36.4999999999999
36.5499999999999
36.5999999999999
36.6499999999999
36.6999999999999
36.7499999999999
36.7999999999999
36.8499999999999
36.8999999999999
36.9499999999999
36.9999999999999
37.0499999999999
37.0999999999999
37.1499999999999
37.1999999999999
37.2499999999999
37.2999999999999
37.3499999999999
37.3999999999999
37.4499999999999
37.4999999999999
37.5499999999999
37.5999999999999
37.6499999999999
37.6999999999999
37.7499999999999
37.7999999999999
37.8499999999999
37.8999999999999
37.9499999999999
37.9999999999999
38.0499999999999
38.0999999999999
38.1499999999999
38.1999999999999
38.2499999999999
38.2999999999999
38.3499999999999
38.3999999999999
38.4499999999999
38.4999999999999
38.5499999999999
38.5999999999999
38.6499999999999
38.6999999999999
38.7499999999999
38.7999999999999
38.8499999999999
38.8999999999999
38.9499999999999
38.9999999999999
39.0499999999999
39.0999999999999
39.1499999999999
39.1999999999999
39.2499999999999
39.2999999999999
39.3499999999999
39.3999999999999
39.4499999999999
39.4999999999999
39.5499999999999
39.5999999999999
39.6499999999999
39.6999999999999
39.7499999999999
39.7999999999999
39.8499999999999
39.8999999999999
39.9499999999999
39.9999999999999
40.0499999999999
40.0999999999999
40.1499999999999
40.1999999999999
40.2499999999999
40.2999999999999
40.3499999999999
40.3999999999999
40.4499999999999
40.4999999999999
40.5499999999999
40.5999999999999
40.6499999999999
40.6999999999999
40.7499999999999
40.7999999999999
40.8499999999999
40.8999999999999
40.9499999999999
40.9999999999999
41.0499999999999
41.0999999999999
41.1499999999999
41.1999999999999
41.2499999999999
41.2999999999999
41.3499999999999
41.3999999999999
41.4499999999999
41.4999999999999
41.5499999999999
41.5999999999999
41.6499999999999
41.6999999999999
41.7499999999999
41.7999999999999
41.8499999999999
41.8999999999999
41.9499999999999
41.9999999999999
42.0499999999999
42.0999999999999
42.1499999999999
42.1999999999999
42.2499999999999
42.2999999999999
42.3499999999999
42.3999999999999
42.4499999999999
42.4999999999999
42.5499999999999
42.5999999999999
42.6499999999999
42.6999999999999
42.7499999999999
42.7999999999999
42.8499999999999
42.8999999999999
42.9499999999999
42.9999999999999
43.0499999999999
43.0999999999999
43.1499999999999
43.1999999999999
43.2499999999999
43.2999999999999
43.3499999999999
43.3999999999999
43.4499999999999
43.4999999999999
43.5499999999999
43.5999999999999
43.6499999999999
43.6999999999999
43.7499999999999
43.7999999999999
43.8499999999999
43.8999999999999
43.9499999999999
43.9999999999999
44.0499999999999
44.0999999999999
44.1499999999999
44.1999999999999
44.2499999999999
44.2999999999999
44.3499999999999
44.3999999999999
44.4499999999999
44.4999999999999
44.5499999999999
44.5999999999999
44.6499999999999
44.6999999999999
44.7499999999999
44.7999999999999
44.8499999999999
44.8999999999999
44.9499999999999
44.9999999999999
45.0499999999999
45.0999999999999
45.1499999999999
45.1999999999999
45.2499999999999
45.2999999999999
45.3499999999998
45.3999999999999
45.4499999999999
45.4999999999999
45.5499999999999
45.5999999999998
45.6499999999999
45.6999999999999
45.7499999999999
45.7999999999999
45.8499999999998
45.8999999999999
45.9499999999999
45.9999999999998
46.0499999999999
46.0999999999998
46.1499999999998
46.1999999999999
46.2499999999998
46.2999999999999
46.3499999999998
46.3999999999998
46.4499999999999
46.4999999999998
46.5499999999999
46.5999999999998
46.6499999999998
46.6999999999999
46.7499999999998
46.7999999999998
46.8499999999998
46.8999999999998
46.9499999999998
46.9999999999998
47.0499999999998
47.0999999999998
47.1499999999998
47.1999999999998
47.2499999999998
47.2999999999998
47.3499999999998
47.3999999999998
47.4499999999998
47.4999999999998
47.5499999999998
47.5999999999998
47.6499999999998
47.6999999999998
47.7499999999998
47.7999999999998
47.8499999999998
47.8999999999998
47.9499999999998
47.9999999999998
48.0499999999998
48.0999999999998
48.1499999999998
48.1999999999998
48.2499999999998
48.2999999999998
48.3499999999998
48.3999999999998
48.4499999999998
48.4999999999998
48.5499999999998
48.5999999999998
48.6499999999998
48.6999999999998
48.7499999999998
48.7999999999998
48.8499999999998
48.8999999999998
48.9499999999998
48.9999999999998
49.0499999999998
49.0999999999998
49.1499999999998
49.1999999999998
49.2499999999998
49.2999999999998
49.3499999999998
49.3999999999998
49.4499999999998
49.4999999999998
49.5499999999998
49.5999999999998
49.6499999999998
49.6999999999998
49.7499999999998
49.7999999999998
49.8499999999998
49.8999999999998
49.9499999999998
49.9999999999998
50.0499999999998
50.0999999999998
50.1499999999998
50.1999999999998
50.2499999999998
50.2999999999998
50.3499999999998
50.3999999999998
50.4499999999998
50.4999999999998
50.5499999999998
50.5999999999998
50.6499999999998
50.6999999999998
50.7499999999998
50.7999999999998
50.8499999999998
50.8999999999998
50.9499999999998
50.9999999999998
51.0499999999998
51.0999999999998
51.1499999999998
51.1999999999998
51.2499999999998
51.2999999999998
51.3499999999998
51.3999999999998
51.4499999999998
51.4999999999998
51.5499999999998
51.5999999999998
51.6499999999998
51.6999999999998
51.7499999999998
51.7999999999998
51.8499999999998
51.8999999999998
51.9499999999998
51.9999999999998
52.0499999999998
52.0999999999998
52.1499999999998
52.1999999999998
52.2499999999998
52.2999999999998
52.3499999999998
52.3999999999998
52.4499999999998
52.4999999999998
52.5499999999998
52.5999999999998
52.6499999999998
52.6999999999998
52.7499999999998
52.7999999999998
52.8499999999998
52.8999999999998
52.9499999999998
52.9999999999998
53.0499999999998
53.0999999999998
53.1499999999998
53.1999999999998
53.2499999999998
53.2999999999998
53.3499999999998
53.3999999999998
53.4499999999998
53.4999999999998
53.5499999999998
53.5999999999998
53.6499999999998
53.6999999999998
53.7499999999998
53.7999999999998
53.8499999999998
53.8999999999998
53.9499999999998
53.9999999999998
54.0499999999998
54.0999999999998
54.1499999999998
54.1999999999998
54.2499999999998
54.2999999999998
54.3499999999998
54.3999999999998
54.4499999999998
54.4999999999998
54.5499999999998
54.5999999999998
54.6499999999998
54.6999999999998
54.7499999999998
54.7999999999998
54.8499999999998
54.8999999999998
54.9499999999998
54.9999999999998
55.0499999999998
55.0999999999998
55.1499999999998
55.1999999999998
55.2499999999998
55.2999999999998
55.3499999999998
55.3999999999998
55.4499999999998
55.4999999999998
55.5499999999998
55.5999999999998
55.6499999999998
55.6999999999998
55.7499999999998
55.7999999999998
55.8499999999998
55.8999999999998
55.9499999999998
55.9999999999998
56.0499999999998
56.0999999999998
56.1499999999998
56.1999999999998
56.2499999999998
56.2999999999998
56.3499999999998
56.3999999999998
56.4499999999998
56.4999999999998
56.5499999999998
56.5999999999998
56.6499999999998
56.6999999999998
56.7499999999998
56.7999999999998
56.8499999999998
56.8999999999998
56.9499999999998
56.9999999999998
57.0499999999998
57.0999999999998
57.1499999999998
57.1999999999998
57.2499999999998
57.2999999999998
57.3499999999998
57.3999999999998
57.4499999999998
57.4999999999998
57.5499999999998
57.5999999999998
57.6499999999998
57.6999999999998
57.7499999999998
57.7999999999998
57.8499999999998
57.8999999999998
57.9499999999998
57.9999999999998
58.0499999999998
58.0999999999998
58.1499999999998
58.1999999999998
58.2499999999998
58.2999999999998
58.3499999999998
58.3999999999998
58.4499999999998
58.4999999999998
58.5499999999998
58.5999999999998
58.6499999999998
58.6999999999998
58.7499999999998
58.7999999999998
58.8499999999998
58.8999999999998
58.9499999999998
58.9999999999998
59.0499999999998
59.0999999999998
59.1499999999998
59.1999999999998
59.2499999999998
59.2999999999998
59.3499999999998
59.3999999999998
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