Spreadsheet: james_steffes__12981__Savings_Analysis
Sheet: Savings

What California Could Have Saved with Long-term Fixed Price Contracts
Simple Commodity Cost of Power MW 24*7 Block (in Millions)
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Qualifying Facilities
 | 2001-01-01 00:00:00 | 2001-02-01 00:00:00 | 2001-03-01 00:00:00 | 2001-04-01 00:00:00 | 2001-05-01 00:00:00 | 2001-06-01 00:00:00 | 2001-07-01 00:00:00 | 2001-08-01 00:00:00 | 2001-09-01 00:00:00 | 2001-10-01 00:00:00 | 2001-11-01 00:00:00 | 2001-12-01 00:00:00 |  |  | TOTAL / Average |  | May00-May01 | May01-Dec01 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |  |  |  |  |  | 2001-01-01 00:00:00 | 2001-02-01 00:00:00 | 2001-03-01 00:00:00 | 2001-04-01 00:00:00 | 2001-05-01 00:00:00 | 2001-06-01 00:00:00 |  | AVERAGES | NP 15 Composite | [NAME]
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 78000 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Approx. MWs of QFs out of service
Net Short (MWHs 000s) |  |  |  | 6582 | 6064 | 4750 | 5589 | 6508 | 6868 | 5685 | 5081 | 5103 |  |  |  |  |  | 72755 | 71272 | 78689 | 87873 | 91027 | 95976 | 101224 | 106682 | 110411 | 114436 |  |  |  |  | Scenario 1 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Scenario 2 | 3000 | 3000 | 3000 | 3000 | 3000
Total Contracted for DWR (000 [NAME]) |  |  |  | 1200 | 1592 | 1990 | 2472 | 2740 | 2791 | 2703 | 2442 | 2438 |  |  |  | MAY00-MAY01 | 10000 | 19167 | 45213 | 68000 | 87000 | 83000 | 84000 | 81000 | 81000 | 81000 | 80000
Price paid (Billion $) |  |  |  | 130 | 130 | 130 | 138 | 138 | 138 | 142 | 142 | 142 |  |  |  | Price paid (Billion $) |  |  | 106 | 89 | 75 | 64 | 61 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 59 |  |  |  |  | Avg. Spot Prices ($/MWh)
Cost (in millions) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Cost (in millions)
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Average Spot Price (June'00 - May'01)
(1 month strips) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | (1 yr strips) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 10 Year Average | 10 Year sum | 6-year average
Future Spot Price Curve (NP-15), 6/28/2000 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Future Spot Price Curve (SP-15) |  |  | 59.24999994443103 | 43.66666662537801 | 41.66666663810607 | 41.66666663810607 | 34.91666667970517 | 34.91666667970517 | 34.91666667970517 | 34.91666667970517 | 34.91666667970517 |  |  |  |  | Price asked by QFs ($125 /MWh)
Future Spot Price Curve (NP-15), 7/20/2000 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Future Spot Price Curve (NP-15) |  |  | 65.2499999245628 | 40.08333328894026 | 39.16666663003462 | 39.16666663003462 | 31.7500000055879 | 31.7500000055879 | 31.7500000055879 | 31.7500000055879 | 31.7500000055879 | 45.07499996864541 | 450.7499996864541 | 53.95833327735044 |  | Scenario 1
Avg. Future Spot Price Curve |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Avg. Future Spot Price Curve |  |  | 62.24999993449691 | 41.87499995715913 | 40.41666663407035 | 40.41666663407035 | 33.33333334264653 | 33.33333334264653 | 33.33333334264653 | 33.33333334264653 | 33.33333334264653 | 45.70416663900635 | 457.0416663900634 | 53.95138883657955 |  | Scenario 2
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Last Yr
Long term contract @ fixed price highest price, last fall $80/MWh * |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Long term contract @ fixed price highest price, last fall $80/MWh *
Long term contract @ fixed price $45/MWh * |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Long term contract @ fixed price $45/MWh *
Long term contract @ fixed price $50/MWh * |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Long term contract @ fixed price $50/MWh *
Long term contract @ fixed price $55/MWh |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Long term contract @ fixed price $55/MWh
Savings from long-term contracts (in  millions) | 100% of Contracted value purchased in Last Years Contracts |  |  | 100% of Contracted value purchased in Last Years Contracts |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | TOTAL SAVINGS (MIILIONS) | TOTAL SAVINGS (BIILIONS) |  | Savings from long-term contracts (in  millions) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | TOTAL SAVINGS (MILLIONS) | TOTAL SAVINGS (BILLIONS) |  |  | Savings from contracts with QFs |  |  |  |  |  |  | TOTAL SAVINGS (MILLIONS) | TOTAL SAVINGS (BILLIONS)
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 100% of Contracted value purchased in Last Years Contracts |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Scenario 1
Future Spot Price (Avg. SP15 & NP15) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Future Spot Price (Avg. SP15 & NP15) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Scenario 2
Fixed price $45/MWh |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Fixed price $45/MWh
Fixed price $50/MWh |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Fixed price $50/MWh
Fixed price $55/MWh |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Fixed price $55/MWh
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Demand Elasticity Savings | May00-May01 | May01-Dec01 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | TOTAL SAVINGS (MILLIONS) | TOTAL SAVINGS (BILLIONS)
 | 50% of Contracted value purchased in Last Years Contracts |  |  | 50% of Contracted value purchased in Last Years Contracts |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 50% of Contracted value purchased in Last Years Contracts |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Price paid (Billion $)
Future Spot Price (Avg. SP15 & NP15) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Future Spot Price (Avg. SP15 & NP15) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Savings due to tariff increases / demand elastifcity & conservation
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | A. With 4% conservation and 3% demand elasticity
Fixed price $45/MWh |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Fixed price $45/MWh |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Load reduced
Fixed price $50/MWh |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Fixed price $50/MWh
Fixed price $55/MWh |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Fixed price $55/MWh |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | B. With 3% conservation and 2.5% demand elasticity
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Load reduced
 | 25% of Contracted value purchased in Last Years Contracts |  |  | 25% of Contracted value purchased in Last Years Contracts |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 25% of Contracted value purchased in Last Years Contracts
Future Spot Price (Avg. SP15 & NP15) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Future Spot Price (Avg. SP15 & NP15)
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Savings
Fixed price $45/MWh |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Fixed price $45/MWh
Fixed price $50/MWh |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Fixed price $50/MWh |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | A.
Fixed price $55/MWh |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Fixed price $55/MWh
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | B.